Africa’s Three Waves Of Coups – OpEd

Nigeria's Chief of Defence Staff, General Chris Musa. Photo Credit: Nigerian Defence Headquarters, Wikipedia Commons

 October 22, 2023

By Andrews Atta-Asamoah

The toppling of King Farouk in 1952 by the Egyptian army marked the beginning of military intervention to gain political power in Africa. Since then, there have been 100 successful coups in 35 countries. So, while the recent increase in coups is worrying, the phenomenon isn’t new.

Coups in Africa have not happened consistently over time, with surges connected to the state of governance in individual states. The triggers, actors and consequences vary from one overthrow to the next, and each surge has resulted in a tightening of regional and continental responses. These actions have often contained the threat until another wave builds.

As Africa reels from its third surge, intergovernmental bodies like the African Union (AU) and Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS) rely on responses developed after previous waves. But how have coups evolved since 1952, and do policies need to evolve to prevent them?

There have been three major waves of coups in post-independence Africa. The first, between the 1960s and 1970s, saw the overthrow of liberation leaders whose political visions conflicted with the interests of major colonial powers. This was compounded by leaders’ failure to meet the aspirations of citizens. Given the Cold War superpower rivalry and the emergence of one-party states and dictatorships, a cocktail of issues inspired senior military officers to lead coups.

There is an undercurrent of tensions originating from the politicisation of the army and nepotism in its ranks

The takeovers were generally bloody and led to the death of 12 African leaders, extra-judicial killings and widespread human rights abuses, particularly in West Africa. Some coups were praised for truncating one-party statism and life-long presidencies. The first wave resulted in the earliest reordering of Africa’s post-independence political landscape.

The second wave from 1990 to 2001 followed the failure of 1980s African leaders, mostly military, to embrace democracy and meet citizens’ needs. Although similar in motivation to the first wave, these overthrows were led largely by mid-level military officers promising to address economic mismanagement.

Unlike before, these coups accounted for only 14% of leader deaths and featured fewer human rights abuses. Nevertheless, they threatened many African leaders as well as the democracy unfolding on the continent.

In response, regional and continental norms were tightened, resulting in the Algiers decision on unconstitutional changes of government and the 2000 Lomé Declaration. The former banned coup makers from attending Organisation of African Unity summits, and the latter took a zero-tolerance stance against coups. These measures, coupled with the spread of democracy, significantly reduced coup numbers, ending the second wave.

Unlike before, recent overthrows have been largely bloodless ‘smart coups’ carried out with restraint 

Since 2021, the third wave – in Sudan, Mali, Guinea, Burkina Faso, Niger and Gabon – has differed from those in previous decades. Motivations included the manipulation of national constitutions for presidential term extensions, rigged elections, deteriorating security and a rising anti-colonial sentiment.

These issues have manifested differently across countries. The putschists in Niger were motivated by ‘the continuous deterioration of the security situation and bad social and economic management.’ In Guinea, the junta slammed Alpha Condé for ‘mismanagement, corruption and bad governance.’ While some coups, like those in Guinea and Gabon, were framed as attempts to restore democracy, the drivers are more complex and varied.

The Guinea, Niger and Gabon takeovers were all led by elite presidential guards, not the army. This feature of modern coups is linked to their occurrence in Francophone Africa, where presidential guards are often better armed and trained than the regular army. Their proximity to the president enables an overthrow, after which they lobby for the army’s involvement.

In Niger, expectations that soldiers would quell the coup faded when Army Chief of Staff Abdou Sidikou Issa announced the army’s support for the ousting of then-president Mohamed Bazoum. This reflects a dangerous undercurrent of tensions originating from the politicisation of the military and nepotism in its ranks. 

Common primary drivers are governance deficits and political elites’ failure to meet citizen expectations

Unlike previous waves, recent overthrows have been largely bloodless ‘smart coups’ carried out with restraint. Deposed leaders have often been held for varied periods before being released due to international pressure. In Niger, the army’s fear of endangering the president’s life limited its role in quashing the coup, according to Sidikou Issa.

While the international dimension of previous coups centred around the hidden hands of external powers, recent takeovers have had an undertone of anti-imperialist sentiment, mostly against France. In Mali, this resulted in the expulsion of French troops and similar agitations in Niger. At the same time, foreign military elements – such as the Wagner Group – were used to secure the country after coups in Mali and Burkina Faso, with similar expectations in Niger.

Coup makers have resisted regional and continental norms against unconstitutional changes in government and, in Niger, have shunned engagements with ECOWAS. The ‘coup alliance’ between Gabon, Niger and Burkina Faso is also important. After the Niger putsch, Burkina Faso, Guinea and Mali pledged support for the junta and threatened retaliation against proposed military intervention by ECOWAS.

While these dynamics distinguish contemporary coups from their predecessors, common primary drivers are governance deficits and political elites’ failure to deliver on their citizens’ expectations. So, although the third wave includes coups of a different kind, they are essentially different shades of the same threat.

The AU Peace and Security Council (PSC) should advocate a comprehensive review of existing frameworks to counter military overthrows and other unconstitutional changes in government. First would be the Lomé Declaration, then the African Charter on Democracy, Elections and Governance.

A multifaceted approach is needed that tackles the immediate challenges posed by coups and the underlying governance issues that fuel them. The PSC’s inconsistencies and selective application of continental norms in managing coups should be addressed, as these undermine the AU’s moral authority in responding to events.

Establishing the PSC sanctions committee is a priority that would demonstrate political will against coups. This would also strengthen the AU’s efforts to monitor suspended countries.

About the author: Andrews Atta-Asamoah, Head, Africa Peace and Security Governance, ISS Addis Ababa

Source: This article was published by ISS Today and was  first published in ISS’ PSC Report.

The Institute for Security Studies (ISS) partners to build knowledge and skills that secure Africa’s future. Our goal is to enhance human security as a means to achieve sustainable peace and prosperity. The ISS is an African non-profit organisation with offices in South Africa, Kenya, Ethiopia and Senegal.

Closer to midnight

Editorial 

October 22, 2023 

FOR a world already in flames, a fresh nuclear arms race would be an unmitigated catastrophe. Yet the growing gulf between Russia and the US — fuelled primarily by the Ukraine crisis — means that cooperation on nuclear arms reduction has practically stalled, with both states eyeing each other with suspicion. A significant recent development in this regard came in the shape of Russia’s State Duma voting to revoke Moscow’s ratification of the Comprehensive Nuclear Test Ban Treaty. As the name of the 1996 document suggests, it seeks to prevent the testing of atomic weapons worldwide. All nuclear powers have largely respected the status quo, with no tests in decades, with the exception of North Korea, which tested devices in 2017. Russia has not tested nuclear weapons since the end of the Soviet Union. But with growing tension between Moscow and Washington, there is a danger that either state could alter its nuclear posture. Russia is believed to possess the world’s largest stockpile of nukes, followed by the US. However, Washington has little moral ground to criticise the Russians on the CTBT move as unlike Moscow, it never ratified the treaty. Earlier this year, Russia also withdrew from the bilateral New START treaty it had signed with America.

While there is no need for panic, both Russia and the US need to give top priority to maintaining the nuclear status quo, and preferably one day reducing their massive stockpiles. During the Cold War there were too many instances where a nuclear exchange was closely averted. The current global situation is just as — if not more — unstable, which means that efforts at arms control and preventing the resumption of nuclear testing should be redoubled by the international community. Pakistan also lives in a ‘nuclear neighbourhood’, and renewed arms tests may further vitiate the situation in South Asia. Therefore, instead of rolling back nuclear protocols, these must be strengthened by all states.

Published in Dawn, October 22th, 2023

Bill Clinton offered $5 billion in 1999 not to conduct nuclear tests: Nawaz Sharif

Pakistan's former Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif said he was offered USD 5 billion in 1999 by then US president Bill Clinton not to conduct nuclear tests after India conducted a series of nuclear tests in 1998.

Pakistan's former Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif addresses supporters upon his arrival from a self-imposed exile in the UK. (Reuters photo)

Press Trust of India

Lahore,UPDATED: Oct 22, 2023 

Hours after his homecoming, Pakistan's former prime minister Nawaz Sharif highlighted the achievements of his tenure and recalled how he gave a "befitting reply" to India's atomic explosion by conducting nuclear tests in 1998 despite being offered USD 5 billion by then US president Bill Clinton not to do so.

Sharif, 73, returned home on a special flight from Dubai, ending a four-year self-imposed exile in the UK, to head his party and try to secure a record fourth term in the general elections expected to be held in January.

Wearing a light blue kurta pyjama, a maroon muffler and a black coat, the Pakistan Muslim League-Nawaz (PML-N) supremo flew in from Dubai to Islamabad on the 'Umeed-e-Pakistan' chartered plane at around 1:30 pm local time.

He reached Lahore, considered a stronghold of his Pakistan Muslim League-Nawaz (PML-N) party, to address a massive rally,

“I am meeting you today after several years, but my relationship of love with you is the same. There is no difference in this relationship,” he told the cheering crowd. “The love I am seeing in your eyes, I am proud of it.”

Sharif recalled the huge pressure he faced from foreign governments in 1998 when Pakistan wanted to respond to India's nuclear test.

“There will be record present in the Foreign Office that Clinton offered me USD 5 billion [â€æ] this happened in 1999...I could have been offered USD 1 billion too, but I was born from the land of Pakistan and it did not give me permission to accept what is against Pakistan’s favour.

“Tell me, if someone else would have been in my place, you know who, could he have said this in front of the American president," he said, taking a dig at his main rival Imran Khan.

"We conducted the atomic test and gave India a befitting reply for conducting nuclear tests," he said in his nearly 60-minute speech at the PML-N rally at the Minar-e-Pakistan.

"So, do we get punished for this? Are verdicts announced against us for this reason?” he said.

Sharif said he never betrayed his supporters nor did he shy from any kind of sacrifice. He recalled how fake cases were framed against him, his daughter and his party leaders. “But no one abandoned the PML-N flag.”

“Tell me, who are they who separated Nawaz Sharif from his nation? We are those who built Pakistan. We made Pakistan an atomic power. We brought an end to load-shedding.”

He compared how roti costs way higher today than when he was in power. “Was I ousted for this reason? What is this decision? You are the public, you say. Do you agree with this decision?”

The PML-N supremo lamented how the country was in a dire state today, but at the same time vowed to redirect Pakistan to the path of growth.

CRIMINAL CAPITALI$M

S’poreans who helped set up firms linked to $2.8b money laundering case removing their names

They were previously listed as directors, secretaries or shareholders of companies set up by several of the foreigners nabbed in the Aug 15 anti-money laundering blitz. 

PHOTOS: SINGAPORE POLICE FORCE

Andrew Wong and Nadine Chua

SINGAPORE – A number of Singaporeans who helped set up firms for individuals linked to the $2.8 billion money laundering case have started removing their names from the companies, amid an investigation by the Accounting and Corporate Regulatory Authority (Acra).

They were previously listed as directors, secretaries or shareholders of companies set up by several of the foreigners nabbed in the Aug 15 anti-money laundering blitz.

In total, the Commercial Affairs Department (CAD) arrested nine men and one woman.

The Singaporeans were also listed in firms incorporated by associates of those arrested, including the wives of some of the accused.

Acra confirmed with The Straits Times that it has contacted a number of corporate service providers (CSPs) in an ongoing probe relating to the money laundering case.

Foreigners are required to engage a registered filing agent, including CSPs, to incorporate a company in Singapore.



They must also appoint at least one director who is living in Singapore. He can be a citizen, permanent resident, or entrepreneur pass or employment pass holder

Corporate service provider Grof, formerly named Sprout, said it commenced termination of services with several companies on Aug 24. The exercise was completed by early September.

Mr Jackson Lim, co-founder of Grof, said fewer than five companies were involved, but declined to provide the exact number.

“When the news broke, we did our internal checks to see if we had any clients that were related to the 10 accused,” said Mr Lim, who ST learnt was registered as secretary or director of about 1,400 live companies.


He said he found his name listed as secretary or director of firms linked to three associates of the accused persons.

ST had earlier reported the names of 24 people linked to the 10 accused. They were on a list the Ministry of Law (MinLaw) sent to traders of precious metals and stones, to flag for suspicious transactions.

“When The Straits Times published the names of the associates, we used it in collaboration with our internal checks, which was very helpful,” said Mr Lim.

TAX CREDIT

Money laundering case: Some suspects donated six-figure sums to charities

He added that his firm has been cooperating with the authorities since September to conduct audits and inspections.

“We assisted them in a couple of ways – first, to provide personal documents of the directors or shareholders of the company they are looking into,” said Mr Lim, adding that Grof also provided documents to demonstrate its risk assessment processes.

He said Acra inspected Grof’s entire onboarding suite, and the firm’s client monitoring system.

The role played by filing agents in registering firms has come under the spotlight amid the probe.

The 10 suspects are (clockwise from top left) Su Baolin, Su Haijin, Chen Qingyuan, Su Wenqiang, Lin Baoying, Zhang Ruijin, Wang Dehai, Su Jianfeng, Vang Shuiming and Wang Baosen. 

ST ILLUSTRATIONS: CEL GULAPA


In court last Wednesday, prosecutors said one of the 10 accused, Su Jianfeng, had registered a firm which they alleged was a shell company. The firm, An Xing Technology, was purportedly an IT management consultancy business.

Su, 35, claimed he was the chief executive of the firm. But when questioned by the police, the Vanuatu national, who faces four money laundering charges, could not pinpoint his office address.

He is also listed as a director and shareholder in the firm.

In a ministerial statement on the ongoing money laundering investigation, Second Minister for Home Affairs Josephine Teo told Parliament on Oct 3 that several regulatory probes were under way, including by the authorities overseeing CSPs.

In a separate statement, Second Minister for Finance Indranee Rajah said Acra will introduce additional measures on errant CSPs in early 2024, and roll out possible restrictions on the number of directorships an individual can hold.
Links to accused

ST learnt that Serangoon resident Amy Chin helped register firms for at least three associates of the arrestees. Business records showed she is registered as a shareholder or director of more than 200 companies.

The associates include Ms Wu Qin, whose husband is Su Haijin, the accused who jumped from his residence in Ewart Park, in Bukit Timah, while allegedly trying to flee from the police. Ms Wu is named in the MinLaw list.

Ms Chin was previously listed as a director in Culbert Management, which was set up by Ms Wu. Mr Lim and another Singaporean – identified as J.J. in a previous report – were listed as company secretaries.

Ms Chin, who is also a Singaporean, is also listed as either a director or shareholder of companies set up by Ms Su Caihuang – the wife of accused Wang Dehai – and Wang Qiujiao, whose registered address is a condo unit at New Futura, the same unit which Chen Qingyuan bought in 2018.

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$2.8b money laundering case: What happens to tainted donations?

Chen was among the 10 individuals arrested in the CAD operation, and Wang Qiujiao was named in MinLaw’s list.

Ms Chin said she had never met any of the individuals behind the companies, and added that she has no recollection of how she came to be associated with the companies.

“I didn’t do any checks on them. I just helped to set up their companies. I earned around $50 for each firm I helped set up. To me, it was good money,” she said, adding that most of the discussions were conducted over WhatsApp.

Ms Chin admitted she did not conduct any due diligence when she gave her details for the roles.

She said she was never involved in any of the operations, and was there only in name.

Ms Chin, who said she terminated her roles in the companies in late 2022, is currently working in an administrative role at a catering company. Business records show she is still a director in three companies in Singapore.

ST reported on Sept 3 that a Singaporean was listed as director, secretary and shareholder in 185 companies, including nine linked to three of the accused.

The resident of Bedok, who was identified in the report as J.J, runs a firm that provides secretarial services. He rejected calls from ST when contacted last Thursday.

Shell companies

Meanwhile, a number of Singaporeans have been convicted in court for their role in setting up shell companies, which were later used by scammers to steal money from victims based overseas.

They included an unemployed Singaporean who was fined $4,000 on Sept 27 for failing to exercise reasonable diligence in his role as director of 186 firms.

Er Beng Hwa, 49, was offered $50 a year for each firm incorporated in Singapore in which he was named the nominee director. He was also promised $50 each time he opened a bank account for the firms, and if he had to turn up to sign papers.

He was part of a probe that saw police arrest 12 individuals who had helped incorporate 35 local companies between July 2020 and February 2021.

MORE ON THIS TOPIC
Billion-dollar money laundering case: Charities urged to review donor records from Jan 2019

They also opened Singapore bank accounts, which were used to launder more than US$36 million (S$49.4 million) from victims of scams.

The 12 individuals had taken advantage of rules that allowed the registration processes to open bank accounts to be conducted remotely during the Covid-19 pandemic.

The anti-money laundering operation on Aug 15 involved more than 400 police officers and saw raids at properties in areas such as Tanglin, Bukit Timah, Orchard Road, Sentosa and River Valley. Ten foreigners, all originally from China, were charged the next day with offences including money laundering, forgery and resisting arrest.

It is Singapore’s worst money laundering case and one of the world’s largest.

Money laundering case: Experts weigh in on moves to curb directorship in companies

The Accounting and Corporate Regulatory Authority is currently working on amendments to the Companies Act and Acra Act. 

PHOTO: ST FILE

Andrew Wong and Nadine Chua

SINGAPORE - The number of nominee directorships that an individual can hold may soon be limited, as part of a review to ensure Singapore’s corporate regulatory environment remains robust.

The Accounting and Corporate Regulatory Authority (Acra) – the national regulator of business entities, public accountants and corporate service providers (CSPs) – is currently working on amendments to the Companies Act and Acra Act.

A number of Singapore residents, who were registered as a shareholder, director or secretary of firms set up by foreigners, have been accused of helping to set up shell companies that were used by scammers and money launderers.


Foreigners are required to engage a registered filing agent, including CSPs, to incorporate a company in Singapore.

They must also appoint at least one director who is living in Singapore. He can be a citizen, permanent resident, or entrepreneur pass or employment pass holder.

National University of Singapore business professor Lawrence Loh said changes to the law should be made in a well-calibrated manner.

“There should not be a blanket measure to punish all corporate service providers just because of an isolated incident such as the money laundering case.”

He said CSPs are necessary to help ease the process when someone wants to set up firms here.

“If Singapore wants to be the best place to do business, we need CSPs to help legitimate companies set foot here. Ultimately, these companies can create good jobs for Singaporeans and boost our economy.

“So it is important that measures put in place to tighten the regime do not affect our reputation for being business-friendly,” added Prof Loh.


Dr Ang Ser-Keng, the principal lecturer of finance at Singapore Management University’s business school, said multiple directorships can be a boon or bane.

“It can be a good thing if a director can, through multiple directorships, add value to all the firms from the breadth of knowledge and skills gained,” he said.

“The alternative hypothesis relates to busy directors who take on too many roles, leading to them not being able to deliver on their commitments.”

He added: “If we were to restrict directors from taking on multiple directorships, then the million-dollar question would be how many is too many?”

MORE ON THIS TOPIC
S’poreans who helped set up firms linked to $2.8b money laundering case removing their names

$2.8b money laundering accused is IT company CEO but does not know where office is: DPP

Mr Raymond Lam, chairman of the Chartered Secretaries Institute of Singapore, said the CSP landscape and money laundering trends are constantly evolving, which means the industry needs to be agile and nimble to cope with these changes.

“In my view, a limit on the number of nominee director appointments that an unregulated person can hold will raise the standards of the directors in Singapore generally and ensure that only qualified individuals can provide the nominee director service,” he said.

Acra rules show that a company director is responsible for managing the affairs of the company and setting its strategic direction, while a secretary is responsible for the administration of the firm.

A shareholder can be an individual, a company or a limited liability partnership.

Several CSPs that The Straits Times spoke to said it is important for checks and balances to be done, to ensure the legitimacy of the individual and the firm being set up.

Mr Robin Yoo, managing director of Agile 8, told ST that there have been instances of individuals e-mailing the CSP firm for assistance with employment passes, after setting up companies.

“When we asked them what their business model is and how they intend to fund it, they went silent.

“This then makes it obvious that obtaining employment passes was their main intention for setting up a company here,” said Mr Yoo.

This was allegedly the case with an individual linked to one of the 10 foreigners arrested in a $2.8 billion money laundering probe.

The wife of Wang Baosen, one of the accused, had set up a company in Singapore to secure an employment pass for herself.

In an affidavit to support the prosecution’s application that no bail be granted to Wang, a Commercial Affairs Department officer said He Huifang had claimed to be an investment consultant in the company.

Mr Yoo said that as Singapore welcomes more businesses, regulators recognise that there is a need to strengthen the regulatory and enforcement framework to manage anti-money laundering checks.

Acra is expected to table the Bill on amendments to the Company Act and Acra Act in 2024.

Among other things, it will propose additional measures for CSPs, including restrictions on the number of roles an individual can hold.

MORE ON THIS TOPIC
Money laundering case: Bedok resident has role in 185 companies, including 9 linked to suspects

Money laundering case: Woman lived with lover, not daughter; S'pore roots overstated, says DPP

Mr Victor Lai, principal consultant of CitadelCorp, said: “These (measures) will have the effect of raising the bar for people to act as nominee directors and secretaries of companies in Singapore.

“We expect that this will also consequently increase the standard of CSP firms.”

The task to weed out dubious actors and firms can be challenging.

CitadelCorp said it was approached by a group of companies, whose beneficial owner was based overseas, to provide secretarial services.

Although the group initially cleared anti-money laundering checks, CitadelCorp dug deeper and found adverse media reports that alleged the group was previously involved in financial crime and corruption in a foreign jurisdiction.

“We performed further investigations and discovered that the prospective client had succeeded in arranging for the removal of its name from subscription-based global compliance screening platforms,” said Mr Lai.

He added that a person or company can fight to refute any links to alleged criminal activity, and have their names removed from global compliance screening platforms.

This means the CSPs’ due diligence processes can become even more complex.

In September, ST reported that scammers had set up firms in Singapore and moved their ill-gotten gains here by exploiting rules that allowed registration processes to open bank accounts to be carried out remotely during the Covid-19 pandemic.

Twelve individuals were charged earlier in 2023 after they inadvertently helped scammers launder more than US$36 million (S$49 million) through Singapore bank accounts.

Investigations showed that between July 2020 and February 2021, foreign agents incorporated 35 local companies and opened Singapore bank accounts to launder these criminal proceeds.

The 12 individuals had acted as resident directors of these companies, or abetted the directors’ offences.

Said Mr Jackson Lim, co-founder of Grof: “If dubious actors can slip through checks by banks, what more smaller CSPs like us with limited resources?”

WW3 AI AND DRONES

Hamas: Taking drone warfare lessons from Ukraine

Drones have long been part of modern warfare. Their deployment has been observed in many armed conflicts in recent years, including in Syria, Ukraine and the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict. — Reuters pic

Sunday, 22 Oct 2023

GAZA, Oct 22 — Russia’s war on Ukraine marked a new milestone in drone warfare. Remodelled commercial drones deemed inappropriate for combat until recently were used for targeted, large-scale attacks for the first time.

Military experts say Hamas terrorists used these types of drones to facilitate their October 7 attacks on Israeli border towns.

The militants deployed adapted commercial quadcopter drones developed by the Chinese firms DJI and Autel, they say.

A new development

Hamas wreaked serious strategic damage on the Israel Defence Forces in its October 7 attacks, which killed more than 1,400 people. Hamas is classified by the United States, the European Union, Israel and some Arab states as a terrorist organisation.

Hamas video footage shows drones dropping explosive devices that disabled or “blinded” surveillance towers along Israel’s entire border fence with the Gaza Strip. Until now, these structures were considered impenetrable.

To fully understand these attacks, it helps to look to the Ukraine war. Almost from the get-go in its 2022 invasion, Russia deployed commercial drones carrying explosive devices. These days, the weapons are used by both sides.

While in Ukraine these drones are used against soldiers and armoured vehicles, Hamas used them on Israeli military infrastructure.

“The way Hamas has used drones is new. We haven’t seen that before,” Carlo Masala of the University of the Bundeswehr (the German Armed Forces) in Munich told the German news magazine Der Spiegel. Hamas terrorists closely copied methods used in Ukraine, he said.

Hamas propaganda videos also show drones dropping shells on an Israeli tank crew, even hitting a US$3.5 million Merkava 4 tank, which at 63 tons is considered the world’s heaviest in production.

Liran Antebi oversees high-tech programmes and national security issues at the Institute for National Security Studies (INSS) in Tel Aviv. She has studied the deployment of drone technology in conflicts for over a decade and closely follows Russia’s war against Ukraine. But even she was “surprised by the unexpected and complex use of Hamas drones,” she said.

“This proves that, even if they are technologically quite primitive, they can be much deadlier in a complex mission than we previously would have admitted,” the researcher told DW.

Terror group IS used drones

The fact Hamas has drones at its disposal is nothing new. But the group clearly built up its arsenal ahead of the lethal assault on October 7.

Commercial drones are “cheap, easy to snap up on the market and can be set off from anywhere in a few seconds along a precise route with virtually no prior knowledge,” said drone technology expert Yair Ansbacher in comments to the Israeli business newspaper Globes. “But the number and scale of the use of drones in the Middle East does not come close to that in Ukraine.”

Liran Antebi recalls that it was originally in the Middle East that such drones were converted for combat purposes — the Islamic State (IS) terrorist organisation used very basic ones against US forces.

“Later we saw it in Ukraine, and now we see it here as well,” Antebi said.

Hamas confirmed the use of 35 “Zouari” drones in the October 7 attacks. These drones, which are made by Hamas, are named after the former head of the terror group’s drone program, Tunisian engineer Mohamed Zouari.

Zouari was killed in 2016. His death has been widely attributed to Mossad, Israel’s national intelligence agency.

Who finances Hamas’ weapons programme?

Many experts are convinced that Hamas’ entire weapons program is funded from abroad.

Iran transfers US$100 million to the group every year, according to the US State Department’s 2020 Country Terrorism Report. Hamas has never disputed this but has said the amount is less.

According to the Washington Post newspaper, Iranian allies have supported Hamas terrorists with military training, logistical and financial aid.

Some observers suspect that others could also be involved in the training of Hamas fighters.

“All of them — Islamic Jihad, Hamas and others — get trained in Syria. It is clear that Russians as trainers with unique experience are involved,” Ihor Semyvolos, the director of the Centre for Middle Eastern Studies in Kyiv, told DW.

Frank Ledwidge, a former British intelligence officer with experience in crisis areas, told DW that he expects the Israel-Hamas war to be a high-tech conflict “with heavy use of drones, tunnels, artillery fire and air strikes.”

This article was originally adapted from Russian. — DW

Canada has 'high degree of confidence' Israel didn't strike hospital in Gaza: Blair

NOT ENOUGH PROOF FOR EITHER HYPOTHESIS

IT REMAINS SPECULATION

OTTAWA - 

Ottawa has a "high degree of confidence" that Israel did not strike the al-Ahli Hospital in Gaza City on Tuesday after an independent review by the Canadian military, Defence Minister Bill Blair said in a statement late Saturday evening.

Canada believes the more likely scenario is that the strike was caused by an "errant rocket" fired from the Gaza Strip, Blair's statement said.

The pronouncement from Ottawa came days after the United States said its own review found that Israel was not responsible for the hospital blast, which the Gaza Health Ministry said killed hundreds of people

President Joe Biden said during a visit to Israel on Wednesday that he was confident the "other team" bore responsibility.

On Thursday, facing pressure to provide Canada's position on the matter, Prime Minister Justin Trudeau said his government was taking "all necessary steps" to form its own understanding of what happened.

The Canadian Forces Intelligence Command conducted its own "review and analysis" at the prime minister's request, Blair's statement said.

A statement from the Department of National Defence on Saturday evening said that the analysis was based on open source and classified reporting.

"This assessment is informed by an analysis of the blast damage to the hospital complex, including adjacent buildings and the area surrounding the hospital, as well as the flight pattern of the incoming munition," the statement read.

Reporting from Canada's allies corroborates the findings, the Defence Department added.

The defence minister promised the government would "continue to provide updates as new information becomes available," and reiterated Canada's "sincere condolences" to all who lost loved ones in the explosion.

In the wake of the blast on Oct. 17, Hamas had quickly blamed an Israeli military airstrike for the carnage. But Israel subsequently released images that it said proved it was caused by a misfire from Gaza.

A senior French military official told The Associated Press on Friday that its own review of the intelligence also found Israel was not responsible, while the United Nations called for an independent investigation.

The latest conflict had begun 10 days earlier when Hamas militants crossed the border into Israel and conducted a series of brazen attacks on civilians.

Israel retaliated, raining airstrikes down on the Gaza Strip and putting the territory under siege. Its military is said to be preparing for a ground assault.

The Hamas-run Gaza Health Ministry says more than 4,300 people have been killed in Gaza in total. More than 1,400 in Israel have been killed, most of them slain in the surprise Oct. 7 attacks.

The Canadian government has deemed Hamas a terrorist entity since 2002.

Earlier on Saturday, the Canadian government announced it would provide an additional $50 million for humanitarian assistance in the Gaza Strip as the region's border crossing with Egypt opened to let in a trickle of desperately needed aid.

International Development Minister Ahmed Hussen issued a statement from Cairo, Egypt, saying the federal government will ensure none of the money goes to Hamas.

Hussen said the money will be used to provide the Palestinian population with food, water, medical assistance, protection services and other life-saving aid.

"The critical and immediate needs of civilians affected by the crisis become clearer with each day that goes by," Hussen's statement said.

"As Canada's partners make their growing needs known, this new assistance will allow us to provide them funding quickly so they can scale up their efforts to help people in urgent need."

The pledge, on top of $10 million Canada already committed, is expected to be sent to humanitarian organizations already in the war-ravaged area.

On Saturday, Hussen was attending a peace summit in Cairo with Foreign Affairs Minister Melanie Joly.

The ministers issued a joint statement saying they planned to reiterate Canada's condemnation of the Hamas attacks on Israel while also highlighting Canada's concerns over the deteriorating humanitarian situation in Gaza, which is home to 2.3 million people.

"We are gravely concerned by the dire humanitarian situation in Gaza, which continues to deteriorate," Joly told the meeting.

"We are encouraged by the news this morning that food, fuel and water being able to enter Gaza, but we need to see more."

Just 20 trucks carrying humanitarian aid were allowed to enter Gaza from Egypt on Saturday. Aid agencies say their loads won't be enough to address the needs of the population, which is now rationing food and drinking dirty water.

More than 200 trucks carrying aid have been waiting at the border for days.

About half of Gaza's residents have fled their homes. Hospitals are running low on medical supplies and fuel for generators amid widespread blackouts exacerbated by waves of Israeli airstrikes. Meanwhile, Palestinian militants continue to fire rockets into Israel.

Israel had insisted nothing would enter Gaza until Hamas released all the captives from its Oct. 7 attack on towns in southern Israel. Hamas freed its first captives, an American woman and her teenage daughter, late Friday.

Joly said both sides in the conflict must respect international humanitarian law.

"Even in times of crisis, there are principles. Even in times of war, there are rules," she said Saturday. "Palestinians and Israeli civilians are equal and both must be protected."

As well, she said the 400 Canadians still in Gaza must be able to return home.

"In the fog of war, it is always hard to see the light of day on the horizon, but we need to see it," Joly said. "We should not be scared about talking about the next steps. Canada will always stand up for human rights."

Joly said she plans to meet with staff at the Canadian embassy in Cairo to discuss their efforts to support Canadians in the region, including their work to help Canadians leave Gaza.

The peace summit includes dozens of regional leaders and other senior western officials, with a focus on de-escalating the fighting and seeking a ceasefire.

Tensions have been rising as the Lebanese militant organization Hezbollah has been trading fire with Israel since the war began, even threatening to join the fight if the Israeli military goes ahead with an expected ground invasion of Gaza.

About 14,500 Canadians are registered with the federal government as being in Lebanon. Global Affairs Canada is urging all of them to get out of the country while they still can. Meanwhile, the Canadian Armed Forces is preparing for possible evacuations.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Oct. 21, 2023.

-- With files from The Associated Press and Michael MacDonald in Halifax.

Support in halls of Congress for Israeli ground invasion is waning

For every pro-Israeli statement, decision or speech in Washington there is also a backlash -with some factions railing against the government's 'neglect of the Palestinians'

Daniel Edelson, 

Ynetnews 

New York

|Yesterday |

While US President Joe Biden and White House officials continue to express unprecedented support for Israel in its war with Hamas, other voices have been heard in recent days in the corridors of the Capitol. The resignation on Friday of an official in the US State Department because of the "blind support on one side" and the increased aid package to Israel do not come from nowhere.

US Secretary of State Antony Blinken wrote a letter to his employees in which he acknowledges the mental toll the war is taking on them. In it, condems the expressions of hatred against American Arabs, Muslims and Jews, but also insists that the administration's approach to the crisis is balanced.

 
In a letter to his staff US Secretary of State Antony Blinken acknowledges the toll the war is taking on them
(Reuters)

"I know that for many of you, this time is not only challenging professionally, but personally," he wrote. “Some of our colleagues in the region, especially among our locally employed staff, have been directly affected by the violence, including by losing loved ones and friends. Even here in the US, there were ripples of fear and bigotry. … While we fully support Israel’s right to defend itself, how it does so matters. That means acting in a way that respects the rule of law and international humanitarian standards, and taking every possible precaution to protect civilian life.”

This choice of words represents a change in the attitude of the White House officials, in contrast to the first days of the fighting. These days, the administration is making sure to devote a significant part of its attention on the subject to the demand that Israel avoid harming civilians, a more open recognition of the suffering of the Palestinians, and the promise to send millions of dollars in aid to Gaza. This change does not come just like that. The initial approach of the Biden administration angered many in the Capitol, as well as State Department officials working under Blinken - Jews and Muslims alike- who felt that the administration's bellicosity would lead to "terrible" policy results and "more long-term violence in the Middle East."

Many considered quitting, but Blinken, aware of the rumblings, addressed them directly in his letter: "Let us also be sure to sustain and expand the space for debate and dissent that makes our policies and our institution better.” And indeed, some senior officials in the ministry are now working on submitting an official audit document to him. At the same time, a letter is circulating around the Capitol that has already been signed by more than 400 Jewish and Muslim government officials, criticizing Biden for neglecting the Palestinians.



"Millions of souls hang in the balance," they write. "Our families, histories, and faith traditions are deeply rooted in Jerusalem, Israel and Palestine. As the children of survivors of slavery, the Holocaust, colonialism, war and oppression, we feel compelled to raise our voices at this moment."

“We join members of Congress and the international community’s denunciation of the horrific war crimes Hamas has committed,” the letter continued. “At the same time, we mourn for the Palestinian civilians who are enduring catastrophic suffering at the hands of the Israeli government."

"As Muslims and Jews, we are tired of reliving the generational fear of genocide and ethnic cleansing. We are tired of leaders pushing us to blame each other, exploiting our pain and our history to set political agendas and justify violence. Only once this immediate bleeding ends, can we direct our efforts to put an end to the status quo of occupation and violence and find paths to sustainable peace for both Israelis and Palestinians," the letter also reads

.
The staffers signed the letter anonymously "out of concern for our personal safety, the risk of violence and the impact on our professional credibility on Capitol Hill."
These words also echo in the Senate, where 30 senators wrote to Blinken to express support for the administration's steps to eradicate Hamas so far, but also to urge him to work toward a cease-fire because "a solution will not be achieved by military means." "Maintaining Israel's security does not contradict basic humanitarian aid to the residents of Gaza," they write.

"The United States should continue its strong support for Israel, while we also do our part to help the United Nations help innocent civilians as they flee the violence," the letter also said. Last week, a similar letter sent to Biden and Blinken by 55 progressive members of the House of Representatives called for an immediate end to the siege of Gaza.

Meanwhile, on the surface at least, the United States continues its offensive line against elements hostile to Israel. Yesterday, the Senate unanimously passed a statement expressing support for Israel and condemning Hamas. Some 97 senators voted in favor. The remaining three were not present at the hearing in Washington.


US President Joe Biden has offered fulll-throated support for Israel
( Photo: Miriam Alster/Flash 90 )

The Foreign Affairs Committee of the House of Representatives also overwhelmingly approved a series of pro-Israeli bills: from sanctions on international supporters of Hamas and Palestinian terrorist organizations, to opposition to a nuclear Iran "by all necessary means" and support for Israel's "freedom of action" to stop Tehran's nuclear armament, calling to build a strategy to prevent the use of Western technology in Iranian drones, the imposition of sanctions on China and other countries involved in the Iranian oil trade, a bill requiring annual reports on antisemitic and anti-Israel content in US-backed Palestinian school curricula, and a call for the European Union to fully define Hezbollah as a terrorist organization.

The Chairman of the Foreign Affairs Committee, Republican Rep. Michael McCaul, went above and beyond and wrote a letter over the weekend to Biden and Blinken in which he demands that the US officially state that Hamas' attack on Israel constitutes genocide, crimes against humanity and war crimes against Israel and the Jewish people.
The Commerce, Science and Transportation Committee of the Senate sent a letter to the major technology companies with the surprising demand that they preserve the materials uploaded about the "atrocities of Hamas." In the letter, sent to the heads of Meta, Google, X and TikTok, the members of the committee, led by Sen. Ted Cruz, R-Texas, demand that no video or photo of the attack - even the most horrific - be deleted.
"Although steps must be taken to curb Hamas' attempts to weaponize social media for its purposes, there is no doubt that social media platforms have already played a critical role in exposing the international community to the genocidal atrocities committed against Israel," the senators write.

"Ordinarily a policy restricting the distribution of disturbing content might make sense, but in this case videos and images uploaded by soldiers, law enforcement agencies, civilians, journalists and those with real-time access to terrorist operations must be preserved to assist in the prosecution of war crimes, intelligence gathering, media reporting and the historical record. The role of social media in documenting war crimes is relatively new but of significant consequence. Companies have a responsibility not to permanently delete any of this content, but to preserve it in such a way that the public record and historical record can accurately document the horrific atrocities being committed," according to the senators.

For every pro-Israeli law, statement, decision and speech there is also a backlash, and it is getting louder and louder every day in the corridors of the administration. Biden is walking a tightrope, even before Israel starts its ground war in Gaza.

The most deaths Palestine has ever witnessed

Hammad Ahmed Abbasi 

Published October 21, 2023 

Ziauddin


AFTER a relentless and brutal bombing campaign of the Gaza Strip, Israel is on the brink of launching a ground assault.

This is not the first time that Tel Aviv has opted for a ground incursion into Palestinian territory. The current circumstances and situation, however, are unprecedented and not just in terms of sheer violence.


But there are fears of worse to come if Israel launches the ground invasion it has promised.

The incessant bombing of the besieged enclave has resulted in at least 4,137 Palestinian casualties so far, according to Gaza’s health ministry, around 500 of whom perished in the bloodbath at the Al-Ahli Hospital earlier this week.

This even surpasses the toll from the bloody Second Intifada (2000-2005), which, according to Reuters figures, stood at over 3,000 casualties.


The latest spate of Israeli violence against Gazans marks the deadliest period in the territory’s history, even more so than the two intifadas

The latest round of violence started on October 7, with Israel claiming the deaths of at least 1,400 of its citizens in Hamas raids. This makes it the single-most deadliest incident in Israel’s history.

In fact, the total number of Israelis killed is around the same as the combined Israeli death toll of both the First and Second intifadas (or uprisings).

Bloody intifadas

Around 400 Israelis and 1,500 Palestinians were killed during the first Intifada, a six-year period starting from 1987. The Second, also known as the Al-Aqsa Intifada, lasted for five years from 2000 onwards, and saw 3,000 Palestinians perish, as opposed to 1,000 casualties on the Israeli side.

Israel’s response this time around has also been unprecedented in its brutality, resulting in at least 4,100 Palestinians killed and more than a million others displaced. That makes the current year and month the deadliest on record for Palestinians, in recent history.

For comparison, UNOCHA figures for 2014 show over 2,200 Palestinians killed, as opposed to just 73 on the Israeli side, after Mahmoud Abbas decided to form a Palestinian unity government with Hamas and Israel embarked on an aggressive settlement spree.

Most of the Palestinian victims this time are children, a reflection of the fact that a majority of Gaza’s 2.3 million people are under the age of 18.

But for Gazans, it is not just the violence that is unprecedented; there are several other crises looming over the besieged territory.

‘Open-air prison’

“The situation is unprecedented. What Israel is doing in Gaza, the destruction, deaths and restrictions, it is a crime against humanity, a ‘genocide’… Operations do bring in more death and destruction,” says Shadi Ali, a 40-year-old Palestinian expat whose family members are stuck in Gaza.

Gaza has often been described as the “world’s largest open air prison,” with its population living under an Israeli-imposed blockade since 2007, when Hamas took control of the territory.

After October 7, Israel cut off water, electricity, fuel and supplies for the 2.3 million people in Gaza, imposing a choking siege on an already-blockaded population.

Israeli air strikes have also targeted areas around the Rafah crossing, rendering Gaza’s only entry/exit point inoperable and cutting off supplies to the besieged territory for the longest time.

As a result, the aid that the residents of Gaza depend on for survival, continues to remain stuck on the Egyption side of the border.

UN Secretary General Antonio Guterres has already criticised Israel’s actions, saying that nothing justifies “the collective punishment of the Palestinian people”.

Highlighting Israel’s violations of international laws, UN subsidiaries have also warned that Tel Aviv’s actions are resulting in severe shortages of food, water, and other essential supplies that will likely claim even more lives in Gaza.

West Bank

Meanwhile, at least 78 Palestinians have been killed by Israeli troops or settlers in the occupied West Bank — where Hamas does not hold sway — since October 7, marking the territory’s deadliest week since 2005. The fatalities were the result of a spike in attacks by Israeli settlers and raids, clashes with Israeli forces.

This year, the occupied West Bank had already seen its deadliest surge in violence since at least 2005, according to UN figures. The year 2023 has also been reported to have been the deadliest year for children in the occupied territory.

Israeli forces have also clashed with Lebanon’s Hezbollah and groups in Syria in the aftermath of the Hamas raid. Tel Aviv also carried out air strikes on at least two Syrian airports, raising the chances of the violence spilling over into other countries of the volatile region.

The only thing that is not unprecedented about the current situation appears to be the reaction of the international community.

As far as the latest situation around occupation and conflict in Gaza is concerned, the international voices that have traditionally backed the Palestinians have continued to do so, while at the same time it is also business as usual for most Western countries and media outlets.

“Given the unprecedented scale of the Hamas attack and the casualties it caused, the international community at large was expected to throw its support behind Israel and its response, as it did in 2008-2009, 2014 and 2021,” says Neve Gordon, a professor of international law and human rights at the University of London’s Queen Mary College.

But the unprecedented factor this time is that there is a chance that the Israeli actions could be sliding towards ‘genocide’, he says.

Published in Dawn, October 21st, 2023

SMOKERS’ CORNER: THE DEATH OF JOURNALISM

Nadeem F. Paracha 

Published October 22, 2023

Illustration by Abro


One of the common themes running across the short-lived but engaging TV series The Newsroom was a tense tussle between ‘old school journalism’ and ‘new journalism.’

Old school journalism exhibited patience and made sure that all the facts were in place before a story could be published or aired. New journalism is dominated by overly opinionated TV talk shows, the social media and that awfully populist thing called ‘citizen journalism.’

One can now safely claim that old school journalism is as good as dead. Even some of the oldest mainstream media outlets are struggling to stick to their own traditions. They too are now likely to get sucked in by the messy world of fake news and ‘propaganda wars’ that are constantly raging on social media and WhatsApp groups.

Whereas the star outlets of new journalism willingly plunge into this mess and even populate it with fake news, the more mainstream media is constantly fumbling to separate the fake from the real. There is just not enough time these days to check and counter-check stories in a reality in which ‘news’ is always ‘breaking’ and ‘scoops’ are a dime a dozen. The slow and the steady does not win the race anymore. It is the fast and the furious (and often fraudulent) that does.

The unverified report that Hamas “beheaded children” in Israel is a classic example of how new journalism is obsessed with cynically creating moral panics

New journalism happily undermines the whole idea of neutrality. It sees it as a relic of a bygone, ‘elitist’ past. It romanticises subjectivity, hyperbole, jingoism and sees no need for journalists to even slightly mask their personal biases.

Recently, when some scions of new journalism began to proliferate the ‘news’ with claims that “Hamas men had beheaded babies”, this ‘story’ was not just picked up by the tabloids but by some mainstream American and Indian journalists as well.

However, it didn’t take long for the claim to be debunked. Credibility to the tabloids never meant anything. They would happily report an alien invasion from Uranus if it served a financial or political purpose. But to maintain some semblance of credibility, the mainstream media outlets that ran the ‘story’ had to confess that they had erred.

There is nothing new about media outlets endorsing a political ideology. This was present in old school journalism as well. However, the endorsements were restricted to editorials. They did not impact the placement of news, even if that news went against the endorsed ideology.

Fox News was one of the pioneers of new (electronic) journalism. It migrated tabloid journalism to mainstream journalism. It began reporting political ‘news’ as a tabloid would an alien invasion from Uranus. Being openly right-wing, its endorsed ideology spilled over into all of its content. Fox News manufactures moral panics. It then follows this up with equally manufactured content that neutralises the feeling of dread created by the panic.




So, in the end, Fox News viewers are always made to feel good. However, during the 2020 US presidential election, when Fox managed to bag enough evidence about Donald Trump’s possible defeat in an important ‘swing state’, the network wasn’t sure whether to report it, unless it wanted to offend its large pro-Trump viewership.

But, surprisingly, old school journalist instincts kicked in and Fox announced that Trump would lose the state. The network’s anchors and viewers flew into a rage. The call was correct, though. Trump did lose the state. But instead of appreciating those who had made the call, Fox went into damage control mode to secure its disappointed viewers. It quietly fired the two news executives who were responsible for making the call.

One subject which sees old school and new journalisms converge in the West is Israel. Old school journalism always avoided explaining whose violence was justified and whose was not. But when it comes to Israel, both old and new journalisms in the West are quick to point out victims and villains, or define justified and unjustified violence.

Many Western journalists working for or writing for mainstream media outlets are conscious of this. In the April 28, 2022 issue of The Washington Post, Laura Albast and Cat Knarr wrote, “Newsrooms cannot pick and choose which state-sanctioned violence is legitimate. They must make an effort to report the actions of the Israeli military and Israeli settlers in the same way that abuses in Ukraine and other countries are covered.”

In 2021, more than 500 journalists put their signature on a letter calling out “harmful malpractice in US media coverage of Palestine.” According to Albast and Knarr, “the outcry was not heard and biassed coverage continues to be the norm.”

European and American media is compelled to portray Israel as a besieged state retaliating against Islamist terrorists. But this is really a post-Cold War narrative. During the Cold War, Israel’s enemy was not the Islamist but secular and left-leaning Palestinian outfits such as the Palestine Liberation Organisation (PLO). Western media relished in demonising it. What’s more, there is now enough evidence to suggest that Islamist outfits were actually bolstered by the US and Israel to neutralise the PLO.

This is why the Western media’s coverage of the Palestine-Israel issue is largely ahistorical. It lacks context. A majority of people in the Muslim world exhibit outrage when Israel bombs places such as Gaza. But this in no way means that they support Islamist militants. How can they, when it is Muslims who have suffered the largest number of casualties in terror attacks by Islamist militant organisations, many of which evolved from outfits that were manufactured by Western powers to counter the Soviet Union.

The wider Muslim outrage is thus a contextualised response, which emerges from a historical understanding of the so-called ‘Palestinian question.’ In 2022, the Arab and Middle Eastern Journalists Association explained this context. It stated, “Palestinians are subjected to an unjust and unequal system, which has been documented as apartheid by international organisations.”

Now, returning to the “beheaded babies.” In 1963, the late Walter Cronkite, a prominent example of classic old school journalism, allowed himself to shed some very quiet tears and some silence while announcing the assassination of President John F. Kennedy. Instead of spiralling into a rage or spewing conspiracy theories, and without the word ‘breaking’ attacking him from all sides of the TV screen, he gave viewers time to absorb the shock. He had refused to announce the death until he was absolutely sure that Kennedy had died.

One can’t expect this nature of journalism anymore anywhere. New journalism is more about cynically creating moral panics, despite the fact that moral panics are almost always shaped by outlandish exaggerations or even outright fibs. The story about beheaded babies was exactly that.

Published in Dawn, EOS, October 22nd, 2023

Myth of Israeli invincibility

Abbas Nasir Published 

October 22, 2023 



THE images on social and mainstream media tell the whole story eloquently, even if the accompanying words of many Western journalists fall short of describing what is really happening, as Israel rains retribution on Palestinian civilians for the Hamas assault on Oct 7. The latter attack killed the largest number of Jewish people, mostly civilians, in a single day since the Holocaust.

The Holocaust perpetrated by the Nazis in Germany in the 1940s remains one of the biggest blots on humanity as some six million Jews, including women and children, were brutally mass murdered as Hitler and his acolytes pursued their sick and genocidal ‘final solution to the Jewish question’.

Ironically, it is because of the guilt of not being able to stop that genocide in the heart of Europe that many Western powers today, and the even the media, turn a blind eye to Israel’s excesses and brutality. They also downplay the plight of the Palestinians. Other important factors are beyond the scope of this piece.

It is understandable that Holocaust survivors and their children and their children’s children vowed ‘never again’ The end of the British Mandate in the Middle East and ‘terrorism’ by the Zionists led to the creation of the Jewish state in 1948 and the expulsion (‘Nakba’) of the Palestinians from their ancestral land.

A loss of life for the IDF, particularly if it is heavy, will have an impact on Israeli public opinion.

However, over the past 75 years, this ‘never again’ pledge has created a colonial power in the Middle East that is both brutal in its oppression in the occupied territories and extremely expansionist in its policy as it moves to push more and more Palestinians out of their homes and off their lands.

Its annexation of the West Bank and Golan Heights from Jordan and Syria respectively in the 1967 six-day war was a demonstration of its intent. The West Bank occupation angers the Muslims more as it allows Israel to restrict access to the Al Aqsa Mosque. From 1948 to 1967 Israel’s image as an immense, almost mythical, military power was fortified.

Currently, of the over five million Palestinians, 2.2m (half of them children) are confined to the Gaza Strip, while approximately 3m live in the Occupied West Bank. The Gazans live in what many describe as an open-air prison which is heavily policed, fenced in on three sides with a few crossings, and blockaded and monitored on the fourth by the Israeli navy.

In addition to these numbers about 20 per cent of Israel’s population of about 10m is also Arab (mostly Palestinians), who live the life of second-class citizens and despite being Israeli do not have the benefit of full rights enjoyed by the rest of the citizenry.

In the 1973 ‘Ramadan War’, the Israeli military’s myth was somewhat punctured by the Egyptian army which crossed the Suez and took back land lost in 1967 in the Sinai to the Israelis. This was followed by the Camp David (peace) Accords.

Retired Gen David Petraeus, who has commanded US forces in Afghanistan and Iraq and also headed the CIA, described the Hamas assault as the result of a stunning intelligence failure of both the Israelis and the US.

In a television interview this week, he also described the military challenges before the Israelis as very tough and said that in the event of a ground offensive, the Israel Defence Forces (IDF) will have to take many casualties as the whole area will need to be cleared “room to room, floor to floor and tunnel to tunnel”.

Coupled with the intelligence failure, a loss of life for the IDF, particularly if it is heavy, will have an impact on Israeli public opinion. As it is, some opinion polls have suggested extreme disapproval of the extreme right coalition led by Benjamin Netanyahu.

Miko Peled, an American-Israeli who trained in the Israeli special forces, earning the coveted Red Beret before leaving, also vividly described the disarray in the IDF as reservists were summoned but it took days to deploy them, such were the logistics deficiencies.

Additionally, he also described in detail how Hamas innovated to disable Israel’s electronic eyes and ears trained on every inch of Gaza so when their assault began Israel was taken by surprise and took hours to react.

Mike Peled appeared certain that even if Israel were keen on wiping out Hamas from Gaza, before abandoning the Strip and severing all connections from it (some 13,000 Gaza workers used to cross using one of the many checkpoints into Israel to work), it wouldn’t succeed.

“They have killed over 4,000 Palestinians in Gaza till now. How many more deaths does the world have appetite for 10,000 or 100,000. It can’t go on,” Peled, who is open about his own solution, a life of security and dignity for the Palestinians in their own homeland, told the ‘Useful Idiots’ podcast.

In the meantime, tragically those claiming to be the heirs of the victims of the worst atrocity in living memory, continue to rain death, pain and destruction on the Palestinian civilians for the actions of those they call terrorists, such is their anger at their own failures.

They manufacture ‘evidence’ that nobody but their staunchest allies find plausible that they, for example, weren’t responsible for the carnage at the Gaza hospital. Among journalists, apart from a handful who have the integrity to question that and also mention the history of IDF lies, all others buy it. One of the worst culprits is ‘BBC Verify’.

The nightmare of the Gazans, meanwhile, will continue till the right-wing extremist politicians and the military force at their disposal have fulfilled their bloodlust or till the images provoke such rage that the region goes up in flames.

At some point, like Miko Peled says, negotiations must start. How long do we have to watch this round of massacre is the question on my mind. I also know that those who stand for peace in Israel are not insignificant in numbers. How soon before they assert themselves?

The writer is a former editor of Dawn.
abbas.nasir@hotmail.com
Published in Dawn, October 22th, 2023