Sunday, October 22, 2023

 

Land use: Producing more food and storing more carbon


Researchers from KIT and HeiGIT find that land use change can increase both food production and carbon storage capacity

Peer-Reviewed Publication

KARLSRUHER INSTITUT FÜR TECHNOLOGIE (KIT)

Land Use: Producing More Food and Storing More Carbon 

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OPTIMIZED LAND USE TAKING INTO ACCOUNT CLIMATIC CONDITIONS COULD INCREASE YIELDS AND STILL LIMIT AREA CONSUMPTION.

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CREDIT: ANITA BAYER




Researchers from KIT and HeiGIT Find That Land Use Change Can Increase Both Food Production and Carbon Storage CapacityResearchers from KIT and HeiGIT Find That Land Use Change Can Increase Both Food Production and Carbon Storage CapacityUse of the Earth’s surface by humans for the production of food, for instance, has changed considerably over the past centuries. Global population is increasing. More food is required and can be transported around the world within shortest periods of time. However, the historically developed food production systems do not reflect the biophysical potential of our ecosystems. The study shows that food is not produced at places where that would be most efficient in terms of area use, water consumption, and CO2 emissions. Instead, deforestation is being continued to obtain cropland and pastures and arid fields are being irrigated. These activities have a massive negative impact on water availability and carbon storage.

But what if fields, pastures, and natural vegetation were moved to where it would be most efficient? What if croplands were restricted to areas that do not require extensive irrigation? To answer these questions, the researchers from KIT and HeiGIT combined a dynamic vegetation model with an optimization algorithm to study alternative global land use scenarios and their impacts.

Optimized Land Use Would Increase Food Production by More than 80 Percent and CO2 Storage Capacity by Three Percent on the Average

The researchers modeled optimized land use for climate conditions of an optimistic scenario and a presently more realistic climate change scenario for the near and far future (2033 to 2042 and 2090 to 2099). The result: Spatial reorganization alone would increase food production by an average of 83 percent, water availability by eight percent, and CO2 storage capacity by three percent. These increases would be even higher, if one of the three parameters would be given priority over the remaining two.

“Our study exclusively covered the biophysical potential as the basis for land use that would consider the target conflicts much better,” says first author Dr. Anita Bayer from KIT’s Campus Alpine in Garmisch-Partenkirchen. “We found that there are indeed regions in which certain land uses would be advantageous or optimal.” According to the study, tropical and boreal forests would have to be preserved or reforested due to their excellent CO2 storage capacities rather than being used as croplands or pastures. Temperate latitudes would have to serve as cropland rather than pastures. This would compensate area loss due to the reforestation of tropical and boreal forests. The wide and open tropical and subtropical savannas and grasslands would have to be used as pastures and for food production. “This optimal land use scheme turned out to be very stable in our study,” Bayer says.

Deliberate Change of Land Use

The study shows that regional practice strongly differs from the theoretically achievable optimum. Massive landuse changes would be required to make better use of the biophysical potential, while increasingincrease food production, water availability, and carbon storage capacity at the same time. “Although such major land use changes appear to be unrealistic, we should be aware of the fact that climate change will be associated with big changes of cultivation areas anyway,” says Professor Sven Lautenbach, researcher of HeiGIT and the Geographical Institute of Heidelberg University. “We should not let these changes happen, but try to manage them taking into account the biophysical potential.”

“Securing global food supply is one of the major challenges of our time and climate change will aggravate this problem in many regions,” says Professor Almut Arneth from the Atmospheric Environmental Research Division of KIT’s Institute of Meteorology and Climate Research, KIT’S Campus Alpine in Garmisch-Partenkirchen. “Our study clearly shows that in spite of unfavorable climatic changes, optimized land use could significantly increase agricultural yields and limit area consumption at the same time. It is now important to find ways to implement land use changes that take into account both biophysical conditions and social aspects.”

Original Publication
Anita Bayer, Sven Lautenbach, Almut Arneth: Benefits and trade-offs of optimizing global land use for food, water, and carbon. Journal Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences (PNAS), 2023. DOI: doi.org/10.1073/pnas.2220371120

https://www.pnas.org/doi/10.1073/pnas.2220371120

 

 

About the Heidelberg Institute for Geoinformation Technology (HeiGIT)

 

The Heidelberg Institute for Geoinformation Technology (HeiGIT) is funded by Klaus Tschira Foundation and works to improve knowledge and technology transfer from fundamental research in geoinformatics to practical applications based on innovative geoinformation technologies. The Institute studies and develops smart routing and navigation services for sustainable mobility, uses spatial data mining and machine learning processes for the development of innovative services, and supplies geodata for supporting humanitarian aid.

More Information

More about the KIT Climate and Environment Center

 

 

  

Optimal land use as determined by the study. The green dots reflect optimum solutions in terms of food production, CO2 storage capacity, and water availability, plotted as the global totals of the three target values. Every dot contains a map of the global distribution of natural surfaces, cropland, and grassland. The red dot reflects suboptimal production resulting from current land use.

CREDIT

Graphics: Bayer et al., 2023

Heidelberg University was established in 1386. It is a research university with international reach that offers a rich range of subjects in humanities, social sciences, law, natural sciences, engineering, life sciences, and medicine. The university’s leading role in German science is reflected by its successes in the excellence competitions – Heidelberg University is one of the German Universities of Excellence – as well as by its international rankings. Heidelberg University works on the further development of outstanding disciplines, strengthening cross-disciplinary cooperation, and transferring research findings to society. The about 30,000 students are offered research-based studies in more than 180 degree programs with a large variety of subject combinations and individual qualification pathways.

Being “The Research University in the Helmholtz Association”, KIT creates and imparts knowledge for the society and the environment. It is the objective to make significant contributions to the global challenges in the fields of energy, mobility, and information. For this, about 9,800 employees cooperate in a broad range of disciplines in natural sciences, engineering sciences, economics, and the humanities and social sciences. KIT prepares its 22,300 students for responsible tasks in society, industry, and science by offering research-based study programs. Innovation efforts at KIT build a bridge between important scientific findings and their application for the benefit of society, economic prosperity, and the preservation of our natural basis of life. KIT is one of the German universities of excellence.

 

 

Generating clean electricity with chicken feathers


Peer-Reviewed Publication

ETH ZURICH

A sustainable membrane is produced from the keratin in chicken feathers for use in a fuel cell. 

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A SUSTAINABLE MEMBRANE IS PRODUCED FROM THE KERATIN IN CHICKEN FEATHERS FOR USE IN A FUEL CELL. 

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CREDIT: GRAPHIC: ETH ZURICH / NTU




The food industry generates enormous amounts of waste and by-​products, including from poultry production. Each year, some 40 million tonnes of chicken feathers are incinerated. This not only releases large amounts of CO2, but also produces toxic gases such as sulphur dioxide.

Researchers at ETH Zurich and Nanyang Technological University Singapore (NTU) have now found a way to put these feathers to good use. Using a simple and environmentally friendly process, they extract the protein keratin from the feathers and convert it into ultra-​fine fibres known as amyloid fibrils. These keratin fibrils go on to be used in the membrane of a fuel cell.

Fuel cells generate CO2-​free electricity from hydrogen and oxygen, releasing only heat and water. They could play an important role as a sustainable energy source in the future. At the heart of every fuel cell lies a semipermeable membrane. It allows protons to pass through but blocks electrons, forcing them to flow through an external circuit from the negatively charged anode to the positively charged cathode, thereby producing an electric current.

Making good use of industrial waste

In conventional fuel cells, these membranes have so far been made using highly toxic chemicals, or “forever chemicals”, which are expensive and don’t break down in the environment. The membrane developed by the ETH and NTU researchers, on the other hand, consists mainly of biological keratin, which is environmentally compatible and available in large quantities – chicken feathers are 90 percent keratin. This means the membrane manufactured in the laboratory is already up to three times cheaper than conventional membranes.

“I’ve devoted a number of years to researching different ways we can use food waste for renewable energy systems,” says Raffaele Mezzenga, Professor of Food and Soft Materials at ETH Zurich. “Our latest development closes a cycle: we’re taking a substance that releases CO2 and toxic gases when burned and used it in a different setting: with our new technology it not only replaces toxic substances, but also prevents the release of CO2, decreasing the overall carbon footprint cycle”, Mezzenga says.

Versatile application

However, there are further challenges to overcome before hydrogen can become established as a sustainable energy source. “Hydrogen is the most abundant element in the universe – just unfortunately not on Earth,” Mezzenga says. Since hydrogen doesn’t occur here in its pure form, it has to be produced, which requires a great deal of energy. Here, too, the new membrane could serve well in the future, because it can be used not only in fuel cells but also in water splitting.

In a process known as electrolysis, direct current is passed through water, causing oxygen to form at the (this time) positively charged anode, while hydrogen escapes at the negatively charged cathode. Pure water isn’t conductive enough for this process and often requires the addition of acids. The new membrane, however, is permeable to protons and thus enables the particle migration between anode and cathode necessary for efficient water splitting, even in pure water.

Patent pending

The researchers’ next step will be to investigate how stable and durable their keratin membrane is, and to improve it if necessary. The research team has already filed a joint patent for the membrane and is now looking for investors or companies to develop the technology further and bring it to market. . 

 

Research shows how airline pricing really works


A new paper coauthored by Olivia Natan of Berkeley Haas and published in The Quarterly Journal of Economics peers into the black box of airline pricing and finds some surprises.


Peer-Reviewed Publication

UNIVERSITY OF CALIFORNIA - BERKELEY HAAS SCHOOL OF BUSINESS




By Dylan Walsh

Buy your ticket on a Tuesday. Search in your browser’s incognito mode. Use a VPN to pretend you live in Suriname.

“There are so many hacks out there for finding cheaper airline tickets,” says Olivia Natan, an assistant professor of marketing at the Haas School of Business. “But our data shows many of these beliefs are wrong.”

With four colleagues—Ali Hortaçsu and Timothy Schwieg from the University of Chicago, Kevin Williams from Yale, and Hayden Parsley from the University of Texas at Austin—Natan looked deeply into the structure and processes behind how prices are set at a major U.S. airline. The system that she found, which is representative of airlines around the world, was strikingly at odds with what many economists would expect—and most consumers assume.

“We initially didn’t know how to rationalize the things we were seeing,” she says.

Substituting convenience for price

Consider fruit jam at the grocery store. Consumers have many options. If a company raises the price on its strawberry jam, one might fairly assume that this would affect sales of both strawberry and neighboring raspberry jam, since consumers can substitute one for another.

The same can happen with plane tickets: When people visit a website such as Google Flights or Kayak and search for a ticket, a wide range of different flights from the same airline appear. Travelers tend to make selections that balance convenience and price: The price of one flight might push people to select a slightly less convenient but cheaper flight.

“But the systems airlines use don’t consider this kind of substitution,” Natan says.  They set the prices of seats on each individual flight on a given route separately, “even though changing the price on one flight will affect the way people think about all their options.”

A small menu of pre-set prices

Perhaps most surprisingly, airlines also don’t directly incorporate the prices of their competitors in their automated price-setting. Typically, if one airline cut its prices, one would expect other firms to do the same. If they don’t, this dampens the benefits of a competitive market.

Setting prices of each product separately without considering substitution, Natan explains, is the result of a specific pricing heuristic—or decision-making shortcut—that airlines use called Expected Marginal Seat Revenue-b, or EMSRb. This shortcut is widely used because it is fast enough to set prices for hundreds of thousands of flights daily, and it allows airlines to reserve some seats to sell at higher prices.

The use of EMSRb, the researchers show, results in another outcome that consumers may not expect. Despite how it may appear when looking for flights, airlines have a fixed and relatively small number of prices that they assign to tickets on each flight. Unlike other consumer sectors, where pricing can be adjusted and targeted down to the penny, airlines operate with large gaps between each possible price—sometimes upwards of $100. They may sell the first 30 economy tickets at the lowest price, and then the next 30 tickets at the next possible price, and so on.

“Airline tickets are sold through global distribution systems that make sure a travel agent in Wichita or Miami sees the same price as you do on your computer at home,” Natan says. This system emerged from an industry alliance to facilitate inventory management across many channels. Other businesses in the travel sector, such as hotel rooms, cruises, trains, and car rentals do the same.

The downside is that airline ticket prices are relatively unresponsive to real-time changes in opportunity costs, as the next discrete fare is often a significant jump up. The researchers found that even if the airline would like to increase the price by $100—half the price of an average one-way ticket—they only do so about 20% of the time, since no fare is available at that price.

Today, airlines are starting to experiment with what’s known as “continuous revenue management,” which would, for instance, assign 100 different prices to a flight with 100 seats. “That would make pricing significantly more variable,” Natan says, “but even that would not be the kind of targeting that many consumers assume airlines use.”

Lack of coordination across departments

One of the strangest discoveries from the research relates to the process airlines use to set their prices. To an economist, Natan explained, there is never a reason that firms would not raise prices if the increase assures an increase in revenue. But the set of possible prices chosen by the pricing team nearly always includes an option which is too low, even by their internal estimates.

The pricing team’s work is made difficult by having to choose an entire menu of discrete prices, “but we found they could make more money today by selling fewer tickets at higher prices and not foreclose future opportunities. In practice, they choose the menu of prices without using their internal demand predictions,” Natan says.

Interestingly, the revenue management team corrects much of this underpricing before it ever reaches consumers. After prices are filed and before tickets go on sale, this team makes demand forecasts that determine final prices. These forecasts are routinely inflated, reducing the number of underpriced tickets shown to consumers by roughly 60%.

“We find that these prices are a consequence of teams from different departments choosing the best pricing inputs when they are unable to  coordinate,” Natan says “This may result in lower revenue, but in practice our solution could not be implemented.” Two other possibilities as to why airlines don’t only focus on short-term revenue, she speculated, are either to build customer loyalty or to avoid regulatory scrutiny.

Over the next several years, Natan says, airlines may start to adopt more dynamic pricing platforms, and non-business travelers may benefit from these changes. But for now, the hunt for an undiscovered trick to find lower fares is largely futile. What is clear is that it's wise not to wait until the last minute. “What I can say is that prices do go up significantly 21, 14, and seven days before a flight,” Natan says. “Just buy your ticket before then.”

Note: This article has been updated from the original version published October 12, 2023.

Read the full paper:

Organizational Structure and Pricing: Evidence from a Large U.S. Airline
By Ali Hortaçsu, Olivia Natan, Hayden Parsley, Timothy Schwieg, and Kevin Williams
The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Sept. 27, 2023

 

 

UK’s first local Net Zero Carbon planning policy likely to drive more efficient buildings and cut energy bills, review shows


University of Bath researchers have analyzed the first six months of a new net zero carbon planning policy in Bath & North East Somerset, finding that heat pumps and solar panels on new developments are likely to be crucial to achieving its goals


Reports and Proceedings

UNIVERSITY OF BATH

Bath city skyline 

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THE NEW PLANNING POLICY MAKES BATH AND ITS SURROUNDINGS, KNOWN FOR HISTORIC ARCHITECTURE, AN IMPORTANT TESTBED FOR FUTURE NATIONAL REGULATIONS

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CREDIT: NIC DELVES-BROUGHTON / UNIVERSITY OF BATH





The UK’s first Net Zero Carbon planning policy is likely to establish significant carbon savings in new buildings and reduce energy bills for occupants, a study has found.

A review led by University of Bath researchers into the first six months of the UK’s first Net Zero Carbon construction policy, implemented by Bath & North East Somerset Council (B&NES), has found that most planning applicants broadly support the intentions of the policy, while highlighting concerns about increased planning and construction costs, and awareness of the scheme.

Introduced in January 2023, the new policy is the first of its kind to be adopted by a local authority and goes beyond the current UK Building Regulations. It covers both the operational or day-to-day emissions (of heating, powering and cooling), as well as the ‘embodied’ emissions that are released in a building’s construction and maintenance. The policy requires that all new residential and major non-residential building developments achieve net zero operational energy, by meeting ambitious energy consumption targets and matching consumption with on-site renewables with offsetting allowed only in exceptional circumstances.

All major developments must also demonstrate an embodied carbon value below a threshold value – something not required in the current national regulations - with no offsetting permitted.

The report authors found that every compliant application submitted during the review period included solar photovoltaics and heat pumps – indicating a strong consensus that currently, they are key technologies in efforts to achieve net zero.

The new framework makes Bath and its surroundings, known for historic architecture, an important testbed for future national regulations and local planning policies.

Contributors to the report include planning staff from B&NES, representatives from the South West Net Zero Hub, Chapter 2 Architects and the sustainability consultancy Bioregional.

Researchers from the University of Bath’s Department of Architecture & Civil Engineering studied every planning application made to B&NES between the introduction of the policy in January 2023 and July 2023, before following up with applicants with a questionnaire. They found that more than half (55%) of planning applications were non-compliant, primarily due to a lack of awareness of the policy.

Applicants were unanimous in their concern around the cost of meeting the new guidelines, with costs attributed to hiring additional consultants, constructing higher performing buildings and generating renewable energy on site.

Dr Will Hawkins, principal investigator of the report, is a lecturer in the University of Bath’s Department of Architecture & Civil Engineering. He said: “Buildings directly account for a quarter of the UK’s greenhouse gas emissions, so early pioneers like Bath & North East Somerset Council can have big impacts both locally and further afield. Our collaboration aims to maximise the benefits for builders, developers and building occupiers, as well as the environment.

“We found evidence that this policy is likely to make all new buildings much more energy efficient and will also boost the introduction and take-up of renewables, compared to the previous guidelines. This isn’t fully proven yet as the buildings are still to be built, but the evidence available so far is very encouraging in terms of carbon reduction.”

Councillor Matt McCabe, B&NES Cabinet Member for Built Environment and Sustainable Development, said: “The changes we made, through the adoption of the Local Plan Partial Update (LPPU) put Bath & North East Somerset at the forefront nationally with policies related to the climate and ecological emergencies.

“I am proud that the council was the first Local Planning Authority (LPA) in England to have an adopted Local Plan policy requiring a net zero energy based requirement for new housing and we are the first in the West of England to adopt a biodiversity net gain (BNG) policy. This is the bedrock for the council’s climate emergency ambitions and I am encouraged by the outcome of the review and its findings.”

Dr Elli Nikolaidou, author of the report and building engineer in the South West Net Zero Hub, added: “We hope this report will inform the future development and implementation of effective net zero carbon construction policies in B&NES and elsewhere. We welcome any feedback that could help us expand this study and ultimately improve local planning policies.”

Other issues uncovered in the study include questions around the achievability of air permeability targets, lack of transparency in applications, and difficulties in matching renewable generation to demand in tall buildings.

The authors are now seeking to carry out a longer-term study, which they say is needed to track the evolving industry response, quantify the real emission savings through construction and occupation, and engage with stakeholders to support the policy’s implementation, further development, and wider impact. This would include investigating the policy response from a social science perspective and investigating a varied sample of key projects over the full cycle of construction and occupation to assess compliance and measure real emissions and energy use.

B&NES planning policy in detail

Adopted in January 2023, the Bath & North East Somerset Council planning policy is the first in the UK to require:

  • All new residential and major non-residential buildings must achieve net zero operational energy. Ambitious energy consumption and building performance targets must be met and matched by on-site renewable generation. Only where this is demonstrably infeasible can the remainder be offset through a financial contribution.
  • Major developments must demonstrate an embodied carbon below a threshold value. This covers a building’s substructure, superstructure and finishes, and includes material production, transportation and construction to the ‘practical completion’ of the building.

The report, Pioneering Net Zero Carbon Construction Policy in Bath & North East Somerset, is available at https://doi.org/10.15125/BATHRO-297388880.

Parties interested in collaborating with the review team are encouraged to contact Dr Will Hawkins at wh604@bath.ac.uk.

ENDS

 

Notes

For interview requests or more information, contact Wil McManus at wem25@bath.ac.uk or on +44(0)1225 385 798.

To download an image, visit: https://tinyurl.com/45z9zrw9 Credit ‘Nic Delves-Broughton / University of Bath’

The University of Bath 

The University of Bath is one of the UK's leading universities for high-impact research with a reputation for excellence in education, student experience and graduate prospects. 

We are named ‘University of the Year’ in The Times and The Sunday Times Good University Guide 2023, and ranked among the world’s top 10% of universities, placing 148th in the QS World University Rankings 2024. We are ranked 5th in the UK in the Complete University Guide 2024, 6th in the Guardian University Guide 2024 and 8th in the The Times and Sunday Times Good University Guide 2024. 

Bath is rated in the world’s top 10 universities for sport in the QS World University Ranking by Subject 2023. We produce some of the world’s most job-ready graduates and were named University of the Year for Graduate Jobs by the Daily Mail University Guide 2024, as well as ranking as one of the world’s top 90 universities for employer reputation according to the QS World University Rankings 2024.

Research from Bath is helping to change the world for the better. Across the University’s three Faculties and School of Management, our research is making an impact in society, leading to low-carbon living, positive digital futures, and improved health and wellbeing. Find out all about our Research with Impact: https://www.bath.ac.uk/campaigns/research-with-impact

LIST to coordinate Horizon Europe project on next generation of 6G mobile networks


The €4m project will play a pivotal role in shaping the future of wireless communication in Europe

Business Announcement

LUXEMBOURG INSTITUTE OF SCIENCE AND TECHNOLOGY

6G-TWIN 

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6G-TWIN LOGO

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CREDIT: LIST




The Luxembourg Institute of Science and Technology (LIST) will coordinate a project on 6G mobile networks funded by the Smart Networks and Services Joint Undertaking (SNS JU) under the Horizon Europe programme. Entitled 6G-TWIN, the project is one of the 27 new research and experimentation initiatives selected from the second SNS JU call for proposals, which will all start operating from January 1, 2024. Established by the European Commission in 2021, SNS JU serves as a foundation for fostering the growth of intelligent communication components, systems, and networks, which play a crucial role in constructing a top-tier European supply chain for cutting-edge 5G and upcoming 6G technologies.

Beyond 5G

The rapid integration of digital technology across industries like transportation and manufacturing has boosted the need for efficient communication and computing services. To meet this, innovative approaches for 6G architecture are crucial, aiming to go beyond current 5G capabilities.

“Each generation of mobile technology takes roughly a decade to evolve from conception to commercial deployment,” explains Sébastien Faye, 6G-TWIN Project Coordinator.  “Starting from the first generations, which brought basic cellular connectivity, through 5G, which facilitates revolutionary applications like connected and automated mobility, each iteration introduces new capabilities to meet a demand that is continually growing. Networks are becoming increasingly complex and distributed, requiring a large variety of technologies to operate. With 6G, which is now on the horizon for around 2030, it is essential to design, experiment and standardize new network architectures with more intelligence and automation - which is what we will be proposing in this project.”

European 6G roadmaps prioritize an AI-native management system for complex networks. These networks need to be sustainable, energy-efficient, and adaptable to various services and business models. Establishing a consistent unified communication and computing architecture requires unconventional methods, along with collaboration among standardization groups and industry leaders for practical market integration.

Leveraging AI for next-generation 6G architecture

To achieve this, the 6G-TWIN consortium “will explore the concept of Network Digital Twinning (NDT) and its integration into future 6G systems”, says Faye. Creating a real-time digital replica of the physical network infrastructure (i.e., NDTs) means creating a sandbox in which it is possible to train models and test different scenarios before deploying them on physical network controllers. “6G will enable real-time interaction between physical networks and these digital copies, with the aim of optimizing various parameters, anticipating failures, improving energy efficiency and so on,” he adds, “thus paving the way for highly efficient and intelligent networks.”

The project also includes plans to create demonstrators that validate the concepts developed, adds Faye. These demonstrators encompass teleoperated driving and energy-efficient network distribution. “By exploring these real-world applications, the project will not only contribute to the theoretical advancement of 6G but also demonstrate its practical feasibility – thanks to a wide range of expertise from the 11 project partners.”

The 6G-TWIN consortium is made up of multiple partners, ranging from universities and research centres (IMEC, Politecnico di Bari, Technische Universität Dresden, Université de Bourgogne) to SMEs (Accelleran, Research to Market Solution France, Ubiwhere) and large industrial entities (Ericsson Araştırma Geliştirme ve Bilişim Hizmetleri A.Ş., Proximus Luxembourg, VIAVI Solutions). From Luxembourg, the collaboration includes Proximus Luxembourg/Telindus, with whom LIST already has a collaboration agreement on the development of business use-cases based on advanced connectivity. With a total grand budget of €4 million over three years, this initiative exemplifies the European Commission's commitment to fostering innovation and research that will shape the future of wireless communication, and, within LIST, another step towards the creation of a strong centre of excellence around Digital Twin Technologies.