Sanctions Haven't Dented Russian Oil Profits, But Green Transition Will

Primorsk Oil Terminal (file image)

PUBLISHED OCT 22, 2023 7:37 PM BY THE CONVERSATION

 

[By Carol Nakhle]

Western sanctions that put a price cap on Russian oil exports from December 2022 aimed to cause the country significant economic pain after its invasion of Ukraine last year. The idea was to curtail the amount Russia makes from its oil while ensuring it continues to flow into the global market to reduce price pressures on consumers around the world.

Back then, oil prices were trading around US$80 per barrel (/bbl). More than 10 months later, the opposite has happened: Russian exports have declined but its revenues have increased, providing it with significant funds to continue the war.

This is because since July 2023, oil prices have been above US$80/bbl, exceeding US$95/bbl at times – levels last seen in November 2022. Even though it was subject to a price cap, Russian oil has been in even greater demand due to a squeeze on supply in global oil markets.

Russia’s global oil market position doesn’t seem to be threatened by sanctions and caps. But domestic problems and market changes that have been brewing long before the war in Ukraine could affect Russia’s oil industry for a long time to come.

Brent is a global benchmark for oil prices. Trading View

How does the price cap work?

The price cap restricts the sale of Russian oil to third parties such as China and India. Countries can still buy that oil but they must use services such as shipping and insurance provided by G7, EU and Australian entities, and can also only do so if the oil is sold below a certain price. This price was set at US$60/bbl (after December 5 2022) for oil and around US$100/bbl (after February 5 2023) for refined products such as diesel.

Western providers of insurance and maritime services make up around 90% of the market, leaving those that want to buy Russian oil with few alternatives but to respect the cap constraints.

A US Treasury report published in May 2023 claimed that the price cap achieved its goals. It reported a decline in Russian oil revenues, even though the country exported around 5-10% more crude oil in April 2023 compared to March 2022.

Russian oil was also trading at a significant discount compared to global oil prices, as Western countries had hoped when they created the price cap. By June 2023, Russia’s oil export revenues plunged to US$11.8 billion, nearly half the levels of a year before.

But by the end of August 2023, a switch had occurred. Russian oil export revenues recovered to US$17 billion even as exports hit an 11-month low, averaging 5.27 million barrels a day (Mb/d) in September 2023 – the lowest since September 2022, and 0.65 Mb/d below pre-Ukraine war levels.

Similarly, the country’s oil production in August 2023 dropped to 10.43 Mb/d in August 2023 compared to 11 Mb/d in December 2022.

Several factors have helped the Kremlin replenish its oil coffers even though it’s selling less oil. First, oil prices increased significantly over the summer of 2023. This was largely a result of production cuts announced by OPEC members, primarily Saudi Arabia and its allies, led by Russia in what is known as OPEC+.

With less oil around, cheaper Russian oil appeals to many buyers around the world, particularly in Asia. Russia has been able to use this to replace eroding European demand.

Breaches of the cap have also been reported, particularly since July 2023. Russia has significantly decreased its reliance on western maritime and insurance services, reducing the portion of its oil trade subject to the cap.

Almost three-quarters of all seaborne Russian crude flows travelled without western insurance in August, reported to be up from about 50% in spring.

Almost three-quarters of all seaborne Russian crude flows travelled without western insurance in August 2023. Bruegel analysis of CREA Russian Oil API

Trouble brewing

Long before the war in Ukraine started, several studies – including research published by the Russian government – highlighted the challenges facing the country’s oil industry.

Russia’s Energy Strategy 2035 (published in 2019) presented two main scenarios for the country’s oil production. The optimistic scenario sees oil production for 2024-2035 at only 0.77% above 2018 production levels. In its pessimistic scenario, Russia’s oil output slips into a 12% decline by 2035 compared to 2018 levels.

An even more pessimistic scenario was suggested by a French research institute called Institut Francais du Petrole (IFP) in 2019, which said Russian oil would shrink by 41% in 2040 compared to 2018 levels.

The flight of western capital, investment and technologies from Russia following its invasion of Ukraine will only worsen all of these scenarios. But the main driver behind such outlooks is the reduction in output from brownfields (projects that have been operating for some time) in Western Siberia – the Soviet-era heartland of Russian oil production.

Alternative supplies are in remote areas (such as the Arctic circle), making them more complex and costly to develop.

Furthermore, as the transition to lower-carbon energy sources accelerates, oil demand is bound to hit a peak. The International Energy Agency expects this to happen before the end of this decade. Notable uncertainty surrounds such an outlook, but in a shrinking market the axe will fall on high-cost producers first.

New Russian oil fields developed in 2019 break even (including taxes) at an average of US$40-50/bbl. This is on the higher end, particularly compared to producers in the Middle East, where costs can even be less than US$10/bbl for some fields in Saudi Arabia, for example.

Of course, the carbon intensity of a country’s oil production will also have a significant impact on producers. As the world attempts to transition to lower carbon forms of energy, buyers will want to reduce the carbon footprint of their energy imports. Russia’s carbon intensity is double that of Saudi Arabia.

While the price cap has done little to erode Russia’s power in the global oil markets, it’s only a matter of time before its oil sector’s legacy problems and high carbon intensity start to squeeze its oil riches. This is likely to have a much more sustained negative impact on Russia’s oil wealth.

Carole Nakhle is an Energy Economist at University of Surrey.

This article appears courtesy of The Conversation and may be found in its original form here. 

The opinions expressed herein are the author's and not necessarily those of The Maritime Executive.

Offshore wind farms could offset billions of dollars in climate change-related costs in the Pacific Northwest – report

Staff Writer | October 22, 2023 | 

Offshore wind turbines. (Reference image by Shaun Dakin, Wikimedia Commons.)

Floating wind farms off the coast of southern Oregon and northern California could triple the Pacific Northwest’s wind power capacity while offsetting potentially billions of dollars in costs for utilities, ratepayers, insurance companies, and others who bear the cost of climate change’s effects, according to new research.


“This research is all about unlocking an untapped source of supply where there is limited transmission and little ability to move that electricity today,” said Travis Douville, lead author of the report that presents this idea and an advisor at the Pacific Northwest National Laboratory.

The US’s power supply is split into three separate grids, with the western interconnection providing power to more than 80 million people over 14 states and two Canadian provinces. The new report dives into future scenarios where floating offshore wind farms are connected to the shore between Coos Bay, OR, and Eureka, CA, via large transmission lines—and the value those wind farms could bring to utilities and ratepayers alike.

Land-based wind farms across the United States already produce more than 140 gigawatts of energy, contributing to about 10% of the nation’s energy portfolio. Currently, the federal government aims to install 30 gigawatts of offshore wind by 2030 and to increase that number to 110 gigawatts of offshore wind by 2050. That much wind power could power tens of millions of homes and cut more than 78 million metric tons of carbon emissions.

Mark Severy, a research engineer at PNNL and co-author on the report, also explained that one of the perks of offshore wind turbines—whether they’re attached to the ocean floor or floating on the surface—versus land-based is that wind over the ocean is less variable and more consistent.

Wind over the ocean also tends to peak in the evenings, which could help supply power when solar energy dips as the sun sets. In places like California, where solar energy makes up most of the renewable power, utilities could turn to wind power in the evenings, when demand generally goes up, instead of fossil fuels to power homes.
Existing infrastructure

One challenge to this idea is determining whether existing transmission infrastructure could support incoming energy from offshore wind.

In a previous study, Douville and other researchers found that offshore wind could supply 3 gigawatts of energy with upgrades to Oregon’s current transmission lines. That’s enough energy to power 1 million homes.

“How do you harness offshore wind energy in a way that allows you to adequately, reliably, and resiliently supply electricity in the future at the lowest cost?” Douville said. “And what is the role of transmission design to influence the value of offshore wind?”

To find out, the team modelled different transmission scenarios, two of which represent a future where offshore wind farms and new, powerful transmission lines add an additional 20 gigawatts worth of wind power to the western interconnection. Both scenarios include high-voltage direct current (HVDC) transmission lines to carry power, which would then be converted to alternating current (AC) once onshore.

The two scenarios differ in whether each wind farm is connected separately to the shore (in a radial structure) or whether the wind farms are connected to each other, then to the shore (a backbone structure).

Severy noted that although both transmission scenarios offered millions of dollars in value, the backbone structure offers slightly different benefits. In the radial scenario, power can only go to one place—wherever the wind farm is connected on the coast—and then be distributed from there. In the backbone structure, power can be diverted up and down the coast.

For example, “in times when there’s excess solar generation in California, we found that the backbone provides another pathway for that electricity to go to the Pacific Northwest and when there is a lot of hydropower in the Pacific Northwest, the backbone is another pathway south, outside of the congested transmission lines on the I-5 corridor,” Severy said.

Although either option would be expensive, “the benefits exceed the costs in nearly every scenario,” Douville said.

In those scenarios where benefits exceed the costs, the values of the various returns on investment range between $127 million and $6 billion. These numbers represent savings to produce and supply power as well as avoid the cost of the effects of air pollution and destruction wrought by climate-change-related disasters.
Remaining challenges

Douville stressed that many more questions need to be answered before an offshore wind plan can be executed.

For instance, researchers and policymakers need to consider how transmission lines will fare underwater. Sea floor depth and slope could affect where cables could be laid, and salt water can be very corrosive, said Jason Fuller, chief energy resilience engineer at the PNNL. Maintenance could be tough, depending on how deep the cables are laid. In addition, the US simply hasn’t used HVDC as much as AC on the grid, and modelling HVDC with current tools can be difficult.

Researchers and policymakers will also have to consider other stakeholders who depend on the ocean, including fisheries and other coastal communities.

Huisman Launches Wind Detection System for Safer Wind Turbine Installation

PUBLISHED OCT 22, 2023 10:21 PM BY THE MARITIME EXECUTIVE

 

[By: Huisman]

Huisman has announced the launch of a newly developed system that empowers crane operators with the ability to anticipate and react to approaching wind speeds, gusts, and direction during the installation process of turbine blades.

The system, called Wind Gust Buster assists crane operators and lifting supervisors when working with the installation of large objects at considerable height, by providing information on the incoming wind 360° around the boom tip. Measurement of the incoming wind is done by application of a LiDAR system on the crane’s boom tip, scanning the horizontal area. The measurement data is post-processed by the crane’s automation system and can be shown to both the crane operator as well as to other people involved, such as on the crane vessel’s bridge. A typical prediction window is five to eight minutes ahead of the wind gust coming in, which allows sufficient time to make the “go or no-go” decision for mating a blade to a nacelle.

The system can be installed on newly built Huisman cranes as well as retrofitted to existing ones.

Cees van Veluw, Product Director Cranes of Huisman: “We are constantly looking for new developments to further improve safety in turbine installation operations. Right now, sudden wind gusts acting on turbine blades can pose a safety risk to the people in the wind turbine, as well as an integrity risk to the blade and nacelle. While we all get used to checking the rain radar prior to taking a hike outside, we haven’t seen this used the same way in turbine installation before. The Wind Gust Buster improves the crane operator’s ability to mate the blade in a controlled manner and thus contributes to safety of the whole lifting operation. Furthermore, this can lead to less damage to components like the blade’s stud bolts, and thus can lead to a cost reduction and installation speed improvement.”

The development of this system contributes to Huisman’s ambition to improve the installation of offshore wind turbines. Another recently introduced solution for controlled installation of blades is the Travelling Load Stabilising System that the company has developed in cooperation with Siemens Gamesa.

Features of the Huisman Wind Gust Buster

• Measurement of approaching wind speed and direction up to 10km distance.
• Sudden changes in the wind speed are detected in advance allowing crew member, like the person guiding the blade into the nacelle, to be informed.
• Unobstructed measurement of the wind speed as the sensor is placed on the top of the boom avoiding unnesery downtime by inaccurate wind speed measurement due to sensor blockage.

The products and services herein described in this press release are not endorsed by The Maritime Executive.

Maine Lobstermen Win Giant Carveout From Offshore Wind Development Area

Maine lobstermen working their pots, 2016 (AK-Bino / CC BY SA 4.0)

PUBLISHED OCT 19, 2023 9:36 PM BY THE MARITIME EXECUTIVE

The U.S. Bureau of Ocean Energy Management (BOEM) is rolling out designated offshore wind leasing areas off the lower 48 states at a rapid clip, racing to meet the Biden administration's target of 30 gigawatts of capacity by 2030. For the latest - a 3.5 million acre parcel in the Gulf of Maine - it has decided to dodge a looming fight with fishing and environmental interests.

The newly-released Draft Wind Energy Area for the Gulf of Maine has enough room for up to 40 gigawatts of offshore wind capacity, with a focus on floating wind installations in deeper water. The size is notable, but the most conspicuous part is the part that was left out: NOAA Lobster Management Area 1, a strip along the coast that is essential to the powerful Maine lobster industry.

Large swathes of LMA 1 were included in the original call area, the starting-point chart that BOEM released in April. The Maine Lobstering Union was not interested in giving up its primary fishing grounds, and it teamed up with environmental groups to lobby BOEM to keep offshore turbines out of the management area. Maine's entire congressional delegation joined the push, including Sen. Susan Collins (R-ME), vice-chair of the Senate Appropriations Committee.

On Thursday, the union declared success: the desirable near-coastal waters of LMA 1 are out of the planning for wind development.

“This is how the process is supposed to work. The federal government listened to the concerns of our fishing communities, and now they are sending a strong signal that an offshore wind industry that fundamentally harms the hardworking Mainers making their living on the water is neither in line with Maine’s values nor welcome in the Gulf of Maine,” said Virginia Olsen, Executive Director, Maine Lobstering Union, Local 207.



The proposed Wind Energy Area for the Gulf of Maine, shaded in green (BOEM)



Lobster Management Area 1, in green above, has almost no overlap with the proposed Wind Energy Area (NOAA)

The proposed development area has plenty of room elsewhere for turbines, and the State of Maine is bullish on the prospects for offshore wind. In July, its legislature approved an RFP for about three gigawatts of offshore wind turbine capacity by 2040, or about half of all state power requirements. The bill contains incentives for wind developers who stay out of prime lobster territory. The RFP will be released in 2026, after anticipated federal lease sales.

"It’s clear that this effort [the green transition] will involve offshore wind energy projects,” said the bill's sponsor, State Senator Mark Lawrence, in a statement at its passage in July. "If we know this is coming, we need to have guardrails in place to make sure this is done right and truly benefits Mainers."

Top image: Maine lobstermen working their pots, 2016 (AK-Bino / CC BY SA 4.0)

Vineyard Wind Completes First Wind Turbine Installation Milestone

Components for the first turbines are being transported on specially designed barges (Vineyard Wind)

PUBLISHED OCT 18, 2023 8:23 PM BY THE MARITIME EXECUTIVE

 

After weeks of negative developments and reports questioning the viability of the U.S. offshore wind industry, Iberdrola Group’s Avangrid and Copenhagen Infrastructure Partners are highlighting advancements at the Vineyard Ward 1 project as a demonstration of the industry’s progress. A little over a month after the first turbine was moved from the staging facility in Massachusetts, the installation was completed. 

The first of 62 GE Haliade-X Wind Turbine Generator has been successfully installed at the site which is 15 miles off the coast of Martha’s Vineyard. Each of the turbines will have a capacity of 13 MW with the project slated to have a total capacity of 806 MW. The companies note that the fully assembled machine, which is comprised of one tower, three blades, and one nacelle, represents the largest turbine in the Western world.

“This is a monumental achievement and a proud day for offshore wind in the United States that proves this industry is real and demonstrates Avangrid’s steadfast commitment to helping the Northeast region meet its clean energy and climate goals,” said Avangrid CEO Pedro Azagra. “While this is a landmark for this first-in-the-nation project and the industry, we remain focused on the important work ahead to continue the successful installation campaign of these massive turbines and deliver the first power to Massachusetts homes and businesses this year.”

Avangrid looks to use these developments to offset some of the negative reports after the company reached agreements with both Massachusetts and Connecticut to walk away from power purchase agreements for two other wind farms that are currently in the permitting and pre-development stage. Avangrid agreed to pay fines in both states and to have the Commonwealth Wind and Park City Wind projects rebid in future solicitations. Shell and OceanWinds, a joint venture between EDP Renewables and ENGIE, similarly agreed during the summer to cancel the power purchase agreement for SouthCoast Wind also planned for Massachusetts. New York regulators last week also refused three petitions from wind farm developers to adjust power purchase agreements.

 

Vineyard Wind's first turbine installation has been completed

 

“Having the first offshore wind turbine in the water for the first commercial offshore wind farm in the U.S. is an important symbolic milestone for our company, our customers, and our industry,” said Jan Kjaersgaard, CEO of GE Vernova Offshore Wind.

Vineyard Wind began offshore construction in late 2022. It achieved steel-in-the-water in June and the wind farm’s substation was completed in July. The company has projected that the first turbines will begin generating power before the end of this year and the project will be completed in 2024.

To meet the U.S. Jones Act requirements, the project is using a broad partnership with the staging of its materials at the New Bedford Marine Commerce Terminal and transported to the location off the coast of Cape Cod by Foss Maritime. Working with DEME Offshore US, Foss designed and built two 400-foot-long highly specialized US-flagged barges to transport the components to the lease area. They are the only two barges in existence capable of transporting in an upright position GE’s massive Haliade-X turbine components that when constructed will rise more than 700 feet.

DEME Group’s Sea Installer vessel is stationed 65 miles from New Bedford south of Martha’s Vineyard handling the installations. Sea Installer, which measures more than 430 feet in length and 150 feet wide, is a heavy lift jack-up crane vessel that lifts itself out of the water on legs that are over 300 feet in length.  

Both Vineyard Wind 1 and South Fork Wind are moving forward in construction while Dominion has begun shipment of monopiles for its Virginia offshore wind farm and Ørsted has begun onshore work in New Jersey for Revolution Wind. These developments have led the analysts at Intelatus to reiterate its forecast for over 70 projects that will install close to 87 GW of capacity by the 2040s and 110 GW by 2050. In the U.S. they see continued efforts by the federal government and, in particular, the East Coast states to find solutions to the challenges faced by the industry.

 

After Two Deaths, NZ Investigators Take Stevedoring Firms to Task

In April 2022, a stevedore was found buried in coal aboard ETG Aquarius in Lyttelton (TAIC)

PUBLISHED OCT 22, 2023 9:11 PM BY THE MARITIME EXECUTIVE

 

New Zealand's Transport Accident Investigation Commission (TAIC) is pushing for tougher policing of the stevedoring industry after two deadly accidents last year exposed safety shortcomings at stevedoring companies.

After the deaths of two dock workers in one week in April last year, TAIC has issued a scathing review of stevedoring companies for allegedly failing to work proactively to improve the safety of workers employed to load and unload cargo.

On April 19, 2022, a stevedore working onboard the vessel Capitaine Tasman at Auckland was crushed to death by a falling 40-foot container. Six days later, another stevedore involved in loading coal at Lyttelton was discovered dead on the deck of the vessel, buried under a pile of the cargo. 

The two stevedores were employed by Wallace Investments Limited (WIL) and Lyttelton Port Company Limited (LPC). The companies have already been charged for the two deaths under section 48 of the Health and Safety at Work Act 2015.

TAIC found that while both WIL and LPC were in the process of improving their respective safety systems, at the time of the accidents there were safety deficiencies, including failure to adequately understand how the day-to-day behavior of their employees might circumvent their control measures.

In the two incidents, investigators identified “common systemic safety issues” that bedevil the wider stevedoring industry, which has historically been accused of poor safety records. The industry is not regulated with the degree of rigor afforded to other high-risk industries, TAIC said. The commission contends that lack of cohesiveness within the stevedoring community means there is little ability to benchmark comprehensively with peers.  

“We need to move on from stevedoring organizations deciding for themselves how they will meet safety requirements. They receive insufficient regulatory oversight, lack industry-wide safety standards and lack the formal safety management oversight and monitoring required of other industries. There is minimal proactive gathering and sharing of safety information, and too few appreciate the benefits of a good safety culture,” said Naveen Kozhuppakalam, TAIC Chief Investigator of Accidents.

He added that Maritime New Zealand should work with the stevedoring industry to develop and implement a risk management code of practice, minimum training standards and ongoing improvements such as sharing of safety information amongst industry players.

Maritime NZ said that it is already working on developing more consistent safety standards, with a draft approved code of practice for loading and discharging cargo currently under review. The regulator also has a plan to improve workforce training, capability and understanding of risks.

 

Canada’s Prince Rupert Starts Build for New Rail-to-Container Terminal

Prince Rupert will build a new rail-to-container transloading terminal south of the city (Prince Rupert Port Authority)

PUBLISHED OCT 20, 2023 5:17 PM BY THE MARITIME EXECUTIVE

 

The Port of Prince Rupert, already one of the largest in Canada and a significant part of the country’s exports to Asia, is commencing construction of a new large-scale logistics project that they report will provide expanded capacity and capabilities for rail-to-container transloading of multiple export products. The port authority expects the new facility known as the Ridley Island Export Logistics Project will result in stronger volumes for loaded export containers moving through the Port of Prince Rupert and a more sustainable balance in its intermodal import and export trade.

Canadian logistics company Ray-Mont currently operates a multi-product transload facility on a temporary Ridley Island location. Port executives report that the facility has proven the export transload concept in Prince Rupert and they look forward to building on this operation.

They expect to invest C$750 million (US$550 million) in the project, which will consist of a 108-acre greenfield development on Ridley Island, located south of the city. They expect the new facility will commence operation in the third quarter of 2026. Ray-Mont Logistics will develop and operate facilities that provide transloading service capacity for 400,000 TEUs for agricultural, forestry, and plastic resin products. 

The project will also include an expansion of the existing Ridley Island Road Rail Utility Corridor that will facilitate unit trains 10,000 feet in length with direct access to the site from the CN network. The transload facilities will be connected to Fairview Container Terminal by direct private road access. In addition, taking steps forward in decarbonization the plan calls for the full electrification of the transload facilities, optimization of rail, and minimal truck drayage.

 

The new facility will be located on a greenfield location on Ridley Island (Port Authority of Prince Rupert)

 

Port officials highlight that the new facility will provide innovative capacities for Canadian exporters to Asia Pacific markets. The project’s large scale, unit train capabilities, access to available empty containers, and proximity and integration into container terminal operations they report will make it a unique model with the ability to deliver significant new service offerings to exporters that will greatly improve the quality, cost, and reliability of container supply chains.

Prince Rupert is already a major gateway port for Canada, handling nearly 18 million tonnes of foreign cargo in the first nine months of 2023. It has diverse operations with a container terminal, which it promotes as the continent’s first purpose-built ship-to-rail container terminal, as well as bulk, gain, and wood pellet terminals. They also cite its advantages of being the deepest North American port and its location gives it the shortest route to Asia. They expect the new terminal will build on the already extensive rail access across Canada and into the U.S. Midwest to expand trade passing through the port. 
 

 

St. Lawrence Seaway Shuts Down as Operators' Union Goes on Strike

Courtesy Unifor

PUBLISHED OCT 22, 2023 10:04 PM BY THE MARITIME EXECUTIVE

 

A union representing 360 workers on the Canadian side of the St. Lawrence Seaway has gone on strike after failing to reach a contract agreement, temporarily shutting down the Great Lakes' connection to the sea. 

In a statement, union Unifor said that talks with its employer, St. Lawrence Seaway Management Corporation (SLSMC), are "1,000 nautical miles apart on wages." The union said that it had made every effort to avoid a strike, but SLSMC had not made enough movement in its bargaining position.

"The SLSMC works to find a fair and competitive labor agreement that balances wage demands and market realities," said the corporation in a statement. "As a result, the system will remain shut down until an agreement can be reached."

SLSMC carried out plans for an organized shutdown of the seaway system over the course of the last three days. This allowed all vessels in transit to safely exit the seaway and its locks, and no ships got caught in the middle, the corporation said. The U.S. side of the operation is also unaffected.

However, more than 100 vessels outside of the seaway have been impacted by the shutdown. The corporation has applied to the Canada Industrial Relations Board to make Unifor provide staffing for the safe transit of grain-carrying bulkers. 

According to SLSMC, Unifor is seeking exceptional wage increases inspired by union action in the automotive industry. Unifor also represents thousands of auto workers, and it just concluded negotiations with General Motors on a multiyear contract earlier this month. The terms of the contract with GM are generous, including a 20-25 percent raise over three years and two more paid holidays. They aren't the only ones: on the other side of the Canadian border, new union leaders at the United Auto Workers have secured tentative offers from the Big Three U.S. automakers for a raise of 23 percent over five years - and the UAW is still holding out for an even better deal. 

REASONABLE

Saudi prince says Palestinians should opt for  civil disobedience that ended British rule in India

'There are no heroes in this conflict. Only victims,' says Prince Turki Al-Faisal

Web Desk Updated: October 22, 2023

Prince Turki Al-Faisal | Wikimedia Creative Commons/Marc Muller

Saudi Arabia’s former intelligence chief Prince Turki Al-Faisal said he prefers civil insurrection and disobedience to military offensive when it comes to Palestinian resistance.

He cited the Indian independence movement bringing down the British Empire as one of the examples the Palestinians can follow. “There are no heroes in this conflict. Only victims,” said Prince Turki while addressing the audience at the Baker Institute for Public Policy at Rice University in Houston, the US, on Tuesday.

“All militarily occupied people have a right to resist their occupation — even militarily,” he added. “I prefer the other option: civil insurrection and disobedience. It brought down the British Empire in India and the Soviet Empire in Eastern Europe.”



The 78-year-old said both Israel and Hamas should be condemned because of their acts against civilians, adding that two wrongs do not make a right.

He said Hamas’ targeting civilian targets go against Islamic injunctions about harming civilians and desecrating places of worship while also condemning Israel for the indiscriminate arrest and killing of Palestinian children, women and men.

Prince Turki also slammed the West for discriminating against attacks on Israel and Palestine. “I condemn Western politicians for shedding tears when Israelis are killed by Palestinians, but refuse to even express sorrow when Israelis kill Palestinians.”

 BBC reporter resigns over Gaza-Israel row

Published October 18th, 2023

BBC. (Shutterstock)

ALBAWABA - BBC journalist Bassam Bounenni submitted his resignation amid the British Broadcasting Corporation row on the Israel-Gaza conflict.

Bounenni posted on X, formerly known as Twitter, "This morning, I submitted my resignation from the British Broadcasting Corporation, BBC, as required by my professional conscience."

Bassam Bounenni used to work as a BBC North Africa correspondent.

Earlier, BBC announced probing six journalists and a freelancer over social media posts related to the latest Israel-Gaza conflict which started on Oct. 7.

BBC said to investigate six journalists who are working for its Arabic service in the Middle East over social media posts "justifying killing of Israeli civilians by Hamas,” according to local media reports.

The six journalists and the freelancers are Senior broadcast journalist Mahmoud Sheleib, broadcast journalist Aya Hossam, correspondent Sally Nabil, Cairo-based Salma Khattab, Beirut-based religious affairs correspondent Sanaa Khouri, Beirut-based program editor Nada Abdelsamad, and Egypt All Sports, a company run by Amr Fekry, a sports correspondent and pundit at BBC Arabic, the Daily Mail reported

The six journalists and the freelancers are Senior broadcast journalist Mahmoud Sheleib, broadcast journalist Aya Hossam, correspondent Sally Nabil, Cairo-based Salma Khattab, Beirut-based religious affairs correspondent Sanaa Khouri, Beirut-based program editor Nada Abdelsamad, and Egypt All Sports, a company run by Amr Fekry, a sports correspondent and pundit at BBC Arabic, the Daily Mail reported

SCOTLAND

Humza Yousaf's wife Nadia El-Nakla reveals her family trapped in Gaza were 'hit by a drone'

 17 October 2023

Nadia El-Nakla and her husband Humza Yousaf embrace on stage at SNP conference. Picture: Alamy

 

By Gina Davidson

The wife of First Minister Humza Yousaf, Nadia El-Nakla, has told LBC her two-year-old cousin in Gaza has been hit by shrapnel from a drone explosive as she warned time was running out to get humanitarian aid to Palestinians.

She said her mother Elizabeth, a retired nurse, is picking the metal from her young cousin's skin as hospitals are too dangerous to attend and are also very low on supplies.

Humza Yousaf revealed last weekend, after the Hamas attack on the music festival in Israel, that his parents-in-law were trapped in Gaza after they had travelled to visit Nadia's elderly grandmother, her brother, who is an emergency doctor, and his young family.

Today Nadia said after the Israeli government had told Gazans to leave the north of the country ahead of a possible ground offensive, there were now around 100 people in the family home, including her young cousin who was hit.

Speaking to Shelagh Fogarty she said: "Two minutes before I came on my mother called me. My uncle, aunt and their three children were just sitting outside and they just got hit by a drone. Thankfully, the drone hit off a metal fire extinguisher and now my two year old cousin is covered in shrapnel.

"This is affecting everyone in Gaza. My mum's crying and she's a retired nurse so is removing the shrapnel. She said don't worry, they're okay. It's just in their skin. But she can't go to hospital as there's absolutely no way to get that kind of treatment."

She said her brother, an emergency doctor had told her he had not been able to get home from hospital for six days as it was not safe to travel.

"But he also can't bring himself to leave because they're having to choose now between who to treat. They don't have any supplies left. He's telling me there's just death and devastation all around him. That was his words from last night.

"I can't imagine having to... you know he's a father of four, seeing small children missing limbs and the deaths... for him, he will psychologically never be the same."

She added: "My mum has not slept in days. My parents are getting older and they've never experienced anything like this. My brother wants to get them out to safety but there's no way to do it. We are having very difficult conversations. They're feeling helpless and desperate and I'm struggling to find the words to comfort them."

Asked if she felt reassured by diplomatic statements from the US President, Prime Minister Rishi Sunak and Labour leader Keir Starmer she said she did not.

"I feel I've heard very little about peace. We don't have time. Hospitals are running out of fuel as we speak. People, a massive number of people are dying. And we don't have the time for a slow approach to humanitarian aid. There needs to be humanitarian aid. Yesterday.

"The numbers that we're seeing dying are just incredible, and most of them 50% are children and there's more under the rubble.

"I want an urgent ceasefire, humanitarian aid getting into Gaza, and I want the foreign nationals to be able to get out. I want to see our governments have discussions about long lasting peace. I believe that the people of Israel the people of Palestine, want to live in peace and deserve to live in peace.

"A long term solution to this conflict has to be made. And that can only be made with countries taking an approach that takes into consideration the actions of both Palestinians and Israel and do not put the lives of any Palestinian or Israeli above each other. These are children on both sides. These are families on both sides, and the only way to get to a place is through peace."

She criticised the UK government's initial response to the Hamas attack. "You're sending spy planes, naval boats, America's sending weapons, you cannot send military armour and then state that you're on the side of peace and that you represent both sides equally."

On Hamas' responsibility towards the lives of Gazans, she said: "I have no idea what power they hold in Gaza or the number of people Hamas includes.

"Israel is the occupying state... it left Gaza physically but when you control everything that comes in and comes out, then you're controlling that area. People there do not have any quality of life, or an independent state, that's not because of Palestinians but because of the Israeli government and along with international peace-keeping efforts which have stalled greatly. But I am not versed... the responsibility is on both sides.

"Hamas, what they did, should be condemned but also the Israeli government for collective punishment must also be condemnded. That's why the way forward is to talk with compassion and love and have that mutual underlining of the importance of life on both sides."

Amnesty International 

Sunak and Nandy's comments diminsh the gravity of human rights violations conducted by Israeli authorities

In response to comments by Rishi Sunak and Lisa Nandy today, Amnesty International UK Chief Executive Sacha Deshmukh said:

“It is right that the Prime Minister and other leading UK politicians are calling for restoring water and humanitarian aid to civilians in Gaza.

“But the fact that neither the government nor the main opposition party are willing to condemn Israel’s clear breaches of international law is wrong and fails to hold Israel to account in a consistent way.

“The brutal attacks against Israeli civilians by Palestinian armed groups were war crimes. But Israel is responding to war crimes with more war crimes, which can never be justified, rationalised, or ignored. UK politicians must explicitly oppose all war crimes, whether by Palestinian armed groups or the Israeli authorities.

“Time is running out for Palestinian civilians in Gaza, with multiple UN agencies describing the situation as 'catastrophic' yesterday. By refusing to condemn clear breaches of international law, by not saying clearly that Israel’s restriction of water and food is collective punishment and a war crime, and that Israel’s evacuation order amounts to forcible displacement, UK politicians are diminishing the gravity of Israel’s actions, limiting pressure on Israel to change course, and contributing to an environment where human rights violations against Palestinians are diminished.

“Palestinian armed groups must stop indiscriminate rocket fire and release hostages, and Israel must lift the blockade of Gaza, rescind its evacuation order and refrain from unlawful and indiscriminate attacks. All are clear violations of international humanitarian law; they must be condemned, and there must be increased calls for justice and accountability, including via the International Criminal Court, to help address the root causes of this decades-long crisis.”

 

OPINION

Al-Aqsa Flood: Dealing with the aftermath

October 22, 2023 

Israeli forces establish heavily armed control points along the border as Israel tightens measures by the army, police and other security forces after Hamas launched Operation Al-Aqsa Flood in Sderot, Israel on October 08, 2023.

 [Mostafa Alkharouf – Anadolu Agency]

by Dr Mohsen M. Saleh
MohsenMSaleh1

Operation Al-Aqsa Flood, launched by Al-Qassam Brigades on 7 October, dealt an unprecedented, historic blow to Israel since its founding 75 years ago. It was a stunning strategic military and security attack, storming a significant area of the 1948 occupied territories and inflicting the highest toll of killed, wounded and captured Israelis compared to all the battles the Palestinians have fought since Israel’s establishment, and even most Arab-Israeli wars.

Confused and shocked, Israel was humiliated as it witnessed its security doctrine’s failure and the fall of its physical and psychological deterrence walls. Witnessing how Al-Qassam Brigades took over about 20 settlements and 11 military sites in just a few hours made it certain of its failure to subjugate the Palestinian people and crush their resistance.

Israeli conduct

Israel tried to pull itself together in order to comprehend the colossal magnitude of the attack that shocked it to the core and made it recall the “existential threat” to its survival in such a hostile environment. Therefore, with all its might, it will strive first to unify its internal front to demonstrate unity and cohesion so that the political and military decision expresses a state of “national unity”. Hence, it formed an emergency unity government.

READ: The strategic implications of Operation Al-Aqsa Flood

On the other hand, Israel will seek to restore its deterrent image that was destroyed by Operation Al-Aqsa Flood by launching a massive, devastating military campaign against the Gaza Strip, its infrastructure and service and civil institutions, causing widespread terror to civilians and making them pay the price for the military attack of their leadership. Israel will make Palestinians pay a heavy price by assassinating a number of political and military resistance leaders, especially those of Hamas, at home and abroad. It will strive to seize the initiative and re-impose its conditions of the game.

Israel may consider more options than just restoring its pre-7 October conditions. It is clear that the barbaric and systematic bombing of the Gaza Strip and the demand for the people of northern Gaza (about half the population) to move to the south or Egypt means that there is a desire to try to reshape the political and security map of the Gaza Strip. Possibilities may include a comprehensive invasion of it. Due to the strong resistance infrastructure, this would be very costly and fraught with failure or a partial invasion, either to establish a “safe” border zone inside the strip or to bring about a territorial break-up of it by separating its north from its middle and its middle from its south. The third possibility is large incursions into the strip to carry out limited operations to break the power of the resistance, then withdraw after a few days, give or take, depending on the achievement of the goals.

The most likely scenario is a limited, flexible ground invasion, rolling through the strip, which could develop and change based on what happens on the ground. If Israel encounters fierce resistance and incurs significant losses, it will scale back its goals, whereas if it operates in a favourable environment, it will expand its goals.

Israel will benefit from the full support of the US and Europe, who have put aside their concerns and are providing both moral and material assistance, including cover for the brutal aggression against the Gaza Strip.

READ: Biden thanks Qatar, Israel after 2 American hostages freed by Hamas

It will also benefit from the global Zionist media and its political and economic influence to distort the resistance image, legitimise its aggression, provide international support and ignore its violations of international law while committing war crimes. It will even seek to compare Hamas and the resistance forces to Daesh, even if based on alleged lies and slander.

Resistance conduct

Perhaps the resistance is aware of the expected costs of this operation and that it is a do-or-die battle. It is aware that the harsh and humiliating blow Israel has received will force the latter to resort to barbaric revenge in an attempt to restore self-confidence and the deterrence image it had maintained for decades. The resistance had realised before that Israel, under the leadership of its extremist government, was seeking to resolve the conflict, whether over the fate of Al-Aqsa Mosque and Jerusalem or the West Bank or by closing the resistance file in the Gaza Strip and the surrounding strategic environment. It has also realised that the Israeli-US desire to proceed with the normalisation process means seeking to end the resistance inside and outside Palestine. It recognises that there are normalised Arab countries (or normalising ones) that consider resistance an obstacle to their normalisation process and that it inspires and incites their people against their political behaviour. It knows that these countries will try to silence the resistance voice in the media, absorb their people’s reactions and pass the attack on the resistance with the least possible losses. Therefore, the Gaza Strip is expected to be under perilous pressure.

In pursuit of its goals, the resistance must thoroughly assess the situation and its position and maximise its abilities and resources in these crucial times. It must not be overconfident based on the success of the first strike while underestimating the capabilities of Israel and its allies.

It is expected first that the resistance will focus on consolidating its internal front, making it more cohesive, building a wider base of support for the resistance, achieving the aspirations of the Palestinian people and protecting the Gaza Strip, avoiding side disputes and temporary disagreements, safeguarding and nurturing its advocates and supporters, especially in the Gaza Strip, and giving them full support in any way possible.

READ: Israel settler: ‘Israel forces killed hostages, not Hamas’

Second, now is the time to make the “unity of the fronts” strategy a reality, with the participation of resistance forces inside and outside Palestine. If Israel launches a full or partial invasion of the Gaza Strip, the importance and vitality of this option will increase. The resistance forces outside Palestine cannot leave Gaza alone to bear the brunt of this aggression supported by a global coalition because the head of the resistance in Lebanon and other forces will be the next target, so the map of the Middle East would be redrawn to meet Israeli-US conditions.

Third, the resistance can benefit from the Israeli prisoners’ card to stop the aggression and targeting of civilians and to achieve honourable prisoner swap deals that would empty prisons of all Palestinian prisoners.

Fourth, it is necessary to galvanise public opinion and build the momentum of resistance supporters and advocates, increasing their interaction in the West Bank, the 1948 territories, the Arab and Muslim world and internationally, similar to what happened during the Sword of Jerusalem Battle. This would build a situation that supports the resistance and puts pressure on Israel to end its aggression against Gaza and stop targeting civilians. It would also expose its true nature, holding it accountable for its crimes.

READ: Erdogan calls on Israel to stop Gaza attacks

Fifth, it is of utmost importance that the resistance communicates with Arab, Muslim and other countries, especially those who understand the resistance’s point of view, exposes all forms of pro-Israel deceptive propaganda, and reminds these countries of their historical responsibilities. In addition to the Arab and Muslim countries, prominent countries, such as Russia, China, Brazil and South Africa, reject the Gaza siege and the aggression against it, oppose the Israeli occupation of the West Bank and the Gaza Strip and understand the causes of armed resistance. They can have a role in stopping the aggression, while many countries, including European ones, can denounce targeting civilians.

In such an atmosphere, the resistance steadfastness, the refusal to yield to any form of pressure or blackmail, the alignment of military performance with political performance and the measures taken to ensure that the war does not drag on after the desired outcomes have been achieved, combined with choosing the time to withdraw from the battle with dignity while preserving the gains, will all provide a more conducive environment for managing the confrontations.

Finally, Israel struggles between its desire to seek revenge and crush the resistance in the Gaza Strip with its dread of failure. Therefore, it will do everything in its power to achieve victory or give the “appearance of victory.” However, the chances of its failure are not small, and this may mean that 7 October will go down in history, whether as a qualitative achievement for the resistance or as an important milestone on the path to ending the occupation and liberating Palestine.

READ: Israel threatens to bomb Al-Quds Hospital in Gaza: Palestinian Red Crescent