Tuesday, October 31, 2023

CMHC CEO Romy Bowers to depart in December

FOR IMF JOB

The president and CEO of the Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation (CMHC) will depart from her role in December, the federal government said Friday.
 
Romy Bowers will move on to International Monetary Fund as director of the office of risk management, according to a news release.  
 
Federal Housing Minister Sean Fraser announced the change Friday along with the upcoming selection process for a new chief executive at the housing Crown corporation.
 
CMHC chief financial officer and senior vice-president of corporate services Michel Tremblay will take over CEO responsibilities until a new candidate is appointed, the government news release said.
 
The Government of Canada said it will soon launch an “open, transparent, and merit-based selection process” to appoint a new head for the CHMC. 

National Bank of Canada cuts staff in capital markets division


National Bank of Canada has cut a number of jobs in its capital markets business, according to people with knowledge of the matter. 

The move included reductions in the equity research and sales and trading divisions, the people said, speaking on condition they not be named because they aren’t authorized to discuss the matter publicly. 

Marie-Pierre Jodoin, a spokesperson for the Montreal-based bank, said it has made “a few adjustments to our Financial Markets structure based on the ongoing assessment of business needs and priorities.” She didn’t provide a number. 

The layoffs at National Bank, Canada’s sixth-largest bank, come amid a wave of job cuts at other Canadian lenders over the past few months that have totaled at least 6,000. Bank of Montreal, Royal Bank of Canada and Bank of Nova Scotia have announced layoffs representing 2 per cent to 3 per cent of their workforces. 

Canada’s large banks had largely avoided job cuts for the past three years, but in the face of numerous revenue and capital pressures, they’re now looking to trim expenses ahead of the Oct. 31 end of their fiscal years. 

National Bank had 28,901 employees as of July 31. Executives said during its third-quarter earnings call in August that expenses had grown during the period, largely because of an increase in full-time positions in 2022. 

Chief Financial Officer Marie Chantal Gingras told analysts at the time that the bank was focused on “prudently managing headcount through attrition.”  


Bank layoffs: lawyer talks severance options

Employees recently laid off from the Canadian banking sector will have options when it comes to severance, and the best choice depends on each individual’s personal circumstances, according to an employment lawyer.

Last week, Desjardins announced it intends to lay off about 400 employees, while Scotiabank announced it would cut about 3 per cent of its staff.  

LUMP SUM OR SALARY CONTINUATION

Ryan Kornblum, an employment and labour lawyer with Kornblum Law, said recently laid-off employees are often given two distinct options when it comes to severance: a lump sum or salary continuation. The best option for each worker depends on their future job prospects, Kornblum explained.

“The stronger you think your prospects are, the more you’re going to lean toward a lump-sum option, generally speaking,” he told BNN Bloomberg Monday in a television interview.

“The discount they’re going to want you to take is about 25 per cent, so generally if you have a salary continuous option, you’ll take 25 per cent less if it’s lumped out.”

Those who think they might be hired quickly are then able to enjoy the lump sum knowing they have a new job on the horizon, he said. Those who are a little more worried about employment prospects can take the continued salary, which gives them more time to look for a job and receive that extra 25 per cent, Kornblum added.

Despite layoffs in the bank sector, Kornblum said he believes many workers will be able to find a new job fairly quickly, noting that severance in the banking sector tends to be more generous than in other careers.

“Even though we are seeing bank layoffs this week and last week, it is a pretty hot jobs market and people are more inclined to take that lump and hope to get that job quicker,” he said.


Wave of job cuts 'probably just the beginning' at Canadian banks

Canadian banks have resumed cutting jobs after a three-year hiatus, with lenders and investment banks so far dismissing at least 6,000 workers, and analysts predicting more to come as revenue remains under pressure.

Bank of Nova Scotia, Royal Bank of Canada and Bank of Montreal all disclosed plans in the past few months to reduce headcount by 2 per cent to 3 per cent, while smaller players Desjardins Group and Canaccord Genuity Group Inc. have also trimmed staff.  

“This is probably just the beginning stages,” said Mike Rizvanovic, an analyst at Keefe, Bruyette & Woods. “The rest will depend on how things recover and if you go into a recession. There’s always potential for more.”

The moves come as Canadian lenders grapple with numerous stresses. As with banks in other countries, they’ve seen a significant jump in the cost of deposits and a slowdown in new mortgages. And deals have stalled in their capital-markets businesses: There hasn’t been a completed initial public offering of more than $500 million (US$360 million) in Canada this year, according to data compiled by Bloomberg.

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Meanwhile, as credit conditions deteriorate, with housing and commercial real estate under pressure, the banks are expected to take significant loan-loss provisions in the fiscal fourth quarter. And they may be facing another increase in the minimum amount of capital regulators require them to hold.

Wall Street banks resumed cutting staff months earlier, and, in some cases, the cuts have been deeper than those in Canada.

Goldman Sachs Group Inc. embarked on one of its biggest rounds of job cuts ever in January, when it moved to eliminate about 3,200 positions, amounting to 6.6 per cent of its workforce as of the end of last year. Morgan Stanley was also preparing a fresh round of about 3,000 cuts, Bloomberg reported in May, which came to about 5 per cent of staff excluding financial advisers and others in its wealth-management division. That came after it already trimmed its work force by about 2 per cent late last year.

Citigroup Inc. has also cut about 7,000 positions so far this year, its Chief Financial Officer Mark Mason said this month, though with a workforce that had swelled to 240,000, that represents just under 3 per cent, more in line with the cuts seen so far in Canada. Still, Citigroup is also preparing for more amid a strategic overhaul of the lender though it hasn’t put a number on the level of eliminations.

Canadian banks, like their U.S. peers, joined the scramble for technology and banking talent during the pandemic.

“Honestly, we overshot — we overshot by thousands of people,” RBC Chief Executive Officer Dave McKay told analysts in May.

After the wave of hiring, banks are now seeing lower attrition than usual thanks to the high level of economic uncertainty, Rizvanovic said. 

Except for Canadian Imperial Bank of Commerce, all of the country’s big six banks reported negative operating leverage in the third quarter, meaning non-interest expenses grew at a faster clip than revenue. As they pledge to reverse that in 2024, they need to rein in costs. 

HISTORIC PATTERN

There’s an incentive for them to get some of the cutting done now, as Scotiabank did last week, so that restructuring charges fall into the fiscal year that ends Oct. 31, which has already been a bad one. When the final numbers are in, five of the country’s six largest banks are expected to show annual declines in earnings per share, according to estimates compiled by Bloomberg. 

The recent workforce reductions mark a return to a longstanding pre-pandemic pattern of trimming jobs before the end of October to start the following year with a lower cost base, according to Bill Vlaad, president of Toronto-based recruitment firm Vlaad & Co.


“Every year we sit on pins and needles between the 15th and 31st of October,” he said. “So the anxiety that’s there is not empty. There’s a history to back it up.”

CIBC, Toronto-Dominion Bank and National Bank of Canada haven’t publicly announced job cuts, but analysts have said they too could be looking at reductions. Rizvanovic also said much bank downsizing goes on behind the scenes through smaller trims that don’t demand public reporting. 

“The banks are currently facing a challenging operating environment with slower loan growth, depressed capital markets and macroeconomic uncertainty,” said Carl De Souza, senior vice president and head of Canadian banking at DBRS Morningstar. “I think there are likely more cuts to come.”

Front-line tellers are at risk, De Souza said, noting that consumers now do much of their everyday banking online, and that branches are now tailored toward advice on mortgages and financial planning. 

Vlaad doesn’t expect the banks to make “large changes in operational strategy,” but instead predicts strategic cuts in underperforming businesses. That’s what Canaccord Genuity did, making sizable cuts in its investment bank while leaving the more-stable wealth-management unit relatively unscathed. 

Rizvanovic said targeted reductions may be ahead in capital-markets divisions and in areas where banks tend to hire consultants, such as technology.

Bank of Montreal and Scotiabank made big cuts and announced corresponding severance charges of C$162 million and C$247 million, respectively. But other banks may seek to avoid large announcements, Rizvanovic said, as they can raise concerns for both shareholders and the government at a time when Canada’s financial sector has increasingly become a political target amid a cost-of-living crisis.

“Optically, it might look bad,” he said, “if there’s this oligopoly of banks in Canada — that earns substantial returns on capital invested in the Canadian business, and billions of dollars in annual income — and they come out and say, ‘Well, we’re cutting staff.’”

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Young Canadians more anxious about debt, more likely to miss a bill payment: Equifax

Young Canadians are more anxious about their personal debt and more likely to have missed a bill payment this year, according to Equifax Canada.

"This has been an incredibly stressful time for Canadian households, just managing day-to-day expenses," said Julie Kuzmic, senior compliance officer of consumer advocacy at Equifax Canada. 

Younger adults "appear to be feeling the financial pinch more acutely than their older counterparts," the report said. 

In the survey, conducted in September, 36 per cent of younger adults reported having missed a bill payment this year, compared with 23 per cent overall.

Meanwhile, 52 per cent of those surveyed between the ages of 18 and 34 are anxious about their personal debt, compared with 39 per cent overall.

The credit reporting agency recently noted Canadians' credit card debt hit an all-time high in the second quarter, with lower-income households having a harder time reining in their spending. 

"It's no secret that credit card debt comes at a higher interest rate, and therefore can be more stressful to people who are forced to resort to credit cards in order to meet their daily requirements for living," said Kuzmic. 

"It certainly isn't a surprise to see that the anxiety level across Canadians around their personal finances is relatively high. And unfortunately, there is very much likely to be a link between that those higher balances we're seeing on credit cards and that anxiety that people are feeling."

Housing is a top concern for Canadians, Equifax Canada said, with three in 10 respondents saying they’ve had to seek additional income in order to cover higher mortgage or rent payments. 

She expects this anxiety will continue to rise, as many households have yet to renew their mortgages at significantly higher interest rates, with the Bank of Canada's overnight rate now sitting at five per cent.

Almost 20 per cent said they’re in a precarious financial situation and may need to move due to affordability issues. 

The survey found younger Canadians are more likely to look into second or third jobs or ‘side hustles’ in order to meet their financial obligations. 

"A number of people have agreed that higher mortgage or rental payments have forced them to find additional income," said Kuzmic. 

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Oct. 30, 2023.

CANADA

Mining industry leading the way in adoption of tech, AI: report

Mining companies are leading the way among Canadian businesses in adopting advanced technology such as artificial intelligence, according to a new economic research report.

The Vancouver Economic Commission’s quarterly report, published this month, included a section looking at adoption of advanced technology across industries in Canada.

The report cited data collected by Statistics Canada in 2022 which found that 30.9 per cent of mining businesses had adopted some advanced technologies -- the highest adoption rate of any industry.

At the time, half of the implemented technologies complied with regulatory standards including sustainability, according to the repot.

AI ADOPTION


Artificial intelligence (AI) was the main technology businesses chose to adopt, the report said, with about a third of businesses in natural resource extraction like mining and oil and gas applying the technology in some way.

“Almost one-third of surveyed businesses in mining, quarrying, and oil and gas extraction used AI technologies,” the report read.

“Commonly cited reasons were to develop new or improved processes or operations as well as for process flexibility and cost reduction.”

AI technology has also helped companies make what have historically been dangerous jobs much safer, with automation sometimes eliminating the need for humans to be present at a mining site.

Some Canadian mining companies have publicly discussed how they apply AI in their operations.

Saskatoon-based Nutrien Ltd. — which has been working to develop tele-remote technology at its network of six potash mines in Saskatchewan — successfully mined an entire production wing at its underground Lanigan, Sask., site last fall without a single human setting foot in the area. 

Using a combination of radar, cameras, advanced sensing systems and cutting-edge technologies powered by AI, Nutrien was able to operate one of its massive potash boring machines from a control room a few hundred metres away from the active mining face.

LABOUR SHORTAGES

In Metro Vancouver, the adoption of advanced technologies in the mining industry may also be a response to labour shortages.

The report found that the total number of workers in the mining, quarrying, and oil and gas extraction industries remain below pre-pandemic levels.

Across all industries, the report noted that many businesses have still chosen not to adopt advanced technologies, including AI, for several reasons including a perceived low return on investment or long payback period.

Other roadblocks include challenges in recruiting skilled staff and difficulty integrating new tech with existing systems.

With files from The Canadian Press

MONOPOLY CAPITALI$M

Swoop officially ends operations after WestJet merger

Swoop Airlines has officially ended its independent operations after its parent airline WestJet decided to fold operations under the same banner. 

In a tweet, the low-cost airline marked its final day of operations by thanking customers for their support over its five years in business. 

“As we merge with WestJet, we look forward to new adventures ahead,” Swoop wrote in the tweet. “Thanks to the loyal Swoop travellers for their support.”

Over the summer, WestJet announced Swoop would be ending operations in October after pilots for both airlines reached a deal to bring them to a level pay scale, which made operating a low-cost airline less feasible, the Canadian Press reported back in June.

The move is not resulting in any layoffs and the Swoop fleet will now be repainted with WestJet decals.

With files from The Canadian Press

 

Coastal GasLink is fully built in positive sign for LNG Canada

TC Energy Corp. has welded the last stretch of the Coastal GasLink pipeline into place, adding to signs that a huge facility to export liquefied natural gas off Canada’s west coast is on track to start up on time, or even early.

All of the pipes along the 670-kilometer (416-mile) route through northern British Columbia have been connected — with the so-called “golden weld” occurring on Oct. 7 — as well as coated, lowered into trenches and hydro tested, Calgary-based TC Energy said Monday. The next stage, called mechanical completion, involves additional documentation and engineering analysis before natural gas is introduced. 

The development may add to growing excitement in the Canadian energy industry about the speed of construction at the LNG export project that the pipeline feeds. LNG Canada — backed by Shell Plc, Mitsubishi Corp. and PetroChina Co., among others — has been billed as the single largest private sector investment in Canadian history and a way for the country’s gas producers to ship their output to new markets where they can garner higher prices. 

“Based on everything that we’re hearing and seeing, LNG Canada may start taking some test gas volumes by the middle of next year,” RBN Energy managing director Martin King said in an interview before the Coastal GasLink announcement. That would be earlier than the “middle of the decade” timeline LNG Canada has publicly provided, he said.

“There’s a palpable sense in the gas business that we’re going to actually have a real, viable outlet for Canadian gas exports other than the United States,” he said.

The optimism on LNG Canada’s completion contrasts with the lengthy delays faced by other major energy projects, such as the Trans Mountain oil pipeline expansion. Canada doesn’t currently have a major coastal LNG export facility, forcing it to send all of its excess gas south to the US, where prices are a fraction of what producers would garner in Asia. LNG Canada’s first phase is expected to chill and export enough gas to supply 20 million households in Japan for a year.

The LNG Canada group has dropped a number of clues about its progress. One job posting seeks a candidate who will move from the project site in Kitimat, British Columbia, to Calgary “after the LNG facility has achieved steady state operations” at the end of next year to mid-2025.  

“Everything we’ve heard is that everything is going smoothly,” said Jamie Heard, head of capital markets at Tourmaline Oil Corp., one of Canada’s largest natural gas producers.

LNG Canada spokesperson Brian Hutchinson said that the project is 85 per cent complete overall and that commissioning and startup activities will begin in 2024, though he said they will take a full year. He reiterated the consortium’s previous forecast of first cargoes shipping by the middle of the decade.

LNG Canada’s investors haven’t made a decision yet on a second phase of the project, which would add two more liquefaction units. 

Work on Coastal GasLink “made tremendous progress” through the summer, putting the project on track for mechanical completion prior to the end of the year, TC Energy spokesperson Suzanne Wilton said, adding that reclamation work will continue into 2024. 

The project is expected provide welcome relief for Canadian natural gas producers that have been so frustrated by a lack of LNG export infrastructure that they have launched a project of their own and also sent gas all the way to export facilities in Texas.

“It’ll be huge,” said Cameron Gingrich, managing partner at energy consulting firm Incorrys Inc. “There’s a lot of money that will go toward filling that pipeline and project.”

Liberal democracies struggle most with tech regulation: prof

Amid calls to regulate fast-developing technologies, a Columbia law professor and author says reigning in big tech has proven challenging for democracies.

“If you look at our economy, our society, our cultural life, our interactions, they are increasingly shaped by technology giants,” Columbia Law School Prof. Anu Bradford told BNN Bloomberg in a Friday television interview.

“At the same time, you see a growing need that is recognized by governments from all around the world that they need to be regulated, but there is no consensus on how we regulate these companies.”

Bradford is the author of Digital Empires: The Global Battle to Regulate Technology, which looks at those themes in detail.

She said liberal democracies have the hardest time regulating technology, citing polarization and dysfunction in the American government system and a lack of enforcement in the European Union.


Meanwhile, “authoritarian” countries like China don’t have the same challenges when it comes to tech regulation, according to Bradford.

“If they decide that it's time to crack down on big tech, they will crack down on big tech,” she said.

“We are really struggling to show that there is a liberal democratic model that is also effective when faced with the power of these tech giants.”

CANADA VS BIG TECH

The struggle between governments and big tech companies over regulation has been playing out in Canada with the development of the Online News Act.

It was signed into law in June and requires tech companies to compensate Canadian media organizations when creating and publishing news content on their platforms.

In response to the law, Meta has blocked news links for Canadian users and Google has threatened to do the same over what it sees as “flaws” in the legislation.

Bradford said that if there continues to be a lack of meaningful tech regulation from democratic governments, the global digital economy will remain under the control of either authoritarian regimes or big tech companies themselves.

“Neither is good for liberal democracy,” she added.

ARTIFICIAL INTELLIGENCE

Historically, governments have faced challenges when attempting to regulate new technology that the world isn’t yet familiar with, Bradford said – but she made the case that technological advances in artificial intelligence (AI) have been unlike any others.

“There's something distinct about AI,” she said. “It is fast-evolving, so it feels like you're regulating a moving target, and it is so multifaceted. There are so many different applications of AI.”

Bradford explained that governments setting rules for AI will be attempting regulate everything from the future of warfare to social media algorithms.

In Canada, the federal government recently unveiled a voluntary code of conduct for the responsible development of AI, aimed at mitigating the potential risks posed by the technology.

The code identifies a number of measures that companies are encouraged to apply to their operations when developing and managing AI systems.

While AI does present a number of serious risks, Bradford said there is also immense potential for beneficial applications of the technology, which regulators are also trying to keep in mind. 

“Regulators are struggling to make sure that we can harness this tremendous economic potential of AI, but at the same time that we protect our individuals and societies against some of the really grave risks that the technology presents,” she said.

Biden signs sweeping executive order regulating artificial intelligence

STATISM DEFENDS MONOPOLY CAPITALI$M

U.S. President Joe Biden signed an executive order on artificial intelligence that establishes standards for security and privacy protections and requires developers to safety-test new models — casting it as necessary regulation for the emerging technology.

“To realize the promise of AI and avoid the risk, we need to govern this technology,” Biden said at a White House event Monday, detailing his most significant action yet on a technology whose practical applications and public use have skyrocketed in recent months.

The order will have broad impacts on companies developing powerful AI tools that could threaten national security. Leading developers such as Microsoft Corp., Amazon.com Inc and Alphabet Inc.’s Google will need to submit test results on their new models to the government before releasing them to the public. 

Biden said the Commerce Department will also develop standards for watermarking AI-generated content, such as audio or images, often referred to as “deepfakes.”

“That way you can tell whether it’s real or it’s not,” Biden said, noting that “AI devices are being used to deceive people.”

Biden said he had watched deepfakes of himself speaking and marvelled at how realistic the images appeared, often asking himself, “When the hell did I say that?”

The rule aims to leverage the US government’s position as a top customer for big tech companies to vet technology with potential national or economic security risks and health and safety impacts. Bloomberg Government earlier reported on a draft of the order. 

The order will marshal federal agencies across government. Biden said he will direct the Department of Energy to ensure AI systems don’t pose chemical, biological or nuclear risks and the Departments of Defense and Homeland Security to develop cyber protections to make computers and critical infrastructure safer.

Congressional action

Biden said he would also meet Tuesday with Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer and lawmakers from both parties at the White House on artificial intelligence and passing legislation on privacy concerns. Biden has repeatedly pushed lawmakers to approve privacy protections.

Schumer has called for the US to spend at least $32 billion to boost AI research and development and said Monday that he hoped to have legislation setting standards for the technology ready in the coming months. 

Lawmakers have been holding briefings and meeting with tech representatives, including Meta Platforms Inc.’s Mark Zuckerberg and OpenAI’s Sam Altman, to better understand the technology before drafting legislation. Venture capitalists Marc Andreessen and John Doerr have also participated in the closed-door sessions. 

Monday’s action builds on voluntary commitments to securely deploy AI adopted by more than a dozen companies over the summer at the White House’s request and its blueprint for an “AI Bill of Rights,” a guide for safe development and use. 

“This executive order sends a critical message: that AI used by the United States government will be responsible AI,” IBM Corp. Chairman and Chief Executive Officer Arvind Krishna said in a statement. IBM Vice Chairman Gary Cohn, former President Donald Trump’s National Economic Council director, attended Monday’s event.

Microsoft views the order as “another critical step forward in the governance of AI technology,” Vice Chairman and President Brad Smith said in a statement.

Biden’s directive precedes a trip by Vice President Kamala Harris and industry leaders to a UK-hosted summit about AI risks, giving Harris a US plan to present on the world stage. 

“Technology with global impact requires global action,” Harris said Monday. “We will work with our allies and our partners to apply existing international rules and norms with a purpose to promote global order and stability.”

The U.S. set aside US$1.6 billion in fiscal 2023 for AI, a number that’s expected to increase as the military releases more detail about its spending, according to Bloomberg Government data.

Algorithmic bias

Biden has repeatedly called for guidance to be issued that safeguards Americans from algorithmic bias in housing, government benefits programs and by federal contractors. 

The Justice Department warned in a January filing that companies that sell algorithms to screen potential tenants are liable under the Fair Housing Act if they discriminate against Black applicants. Biden directed the department to establish best practices for investigating and prosecuting such civil-rights violations related to AI, including in the criminal justice system. 

The order also asks immigration officials to lessen visa requirements for overseas talent seeking to work at American AI companies. 

With assistance from Jordan Fabian, Amanda Allen and Jenny Leonard.

CANADA

Feds ban WeChat, Kaspersky apps from government-issued devices over security concerns

The federal government is banning WeChat and Kaspersky applications from its phones over security concerns.

WeChat is a social network, messaging and payments app from Chinese company Tencent, while Kaspersky was founded by Russian entrepreneur Eugene Kaspersky and offers cybersecurity and antivirus software.

The government said both apps would be removed from its devices Monday and users will be blocked from downloading WeChat or Kaspersky products in the future.

It said it made the move because the chief information officer of Canada determined that the WeChat and Kaspersky apps present "an unacceptable level of risk to privacy and security."

Kaspersky, in a statement, said it was disappointed and surprised by the decision, claiming it was made without "opportunity for engagement by Kaspersky on the Canadian government’s underlying concerns."


The statement suggested the move seemed to have been "made on political grounds."

"As there has been no evidence or due process to otherwise justify these actions, they are highly unsupported and a response to the geopolitical climate rather than a comprehensive evaluation of the integrity of Kaspersky’s products and services," the company's statement said.

The government's chief information officer said the apps' data collection methods provide considerable access to the contents of any mobile device they're on and the government wanted to ensure their networks and data remain secure.

It said it has no evidence that information has been compromised as a result of employees using the apps.

The statement from Kaspersky noted its data services and engineering practices have been confirmed by independent third-party assessments.

"Kaspersky provides industry-leading products and services to customers around the world to protect them from all types of cyberthreats, and it has stated clearly that it doesn’t have any ties with any government, including Russia’s."

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Oct. 30, 2023.

Telus partners with electric vehicle chargers producer Flo to provide real-time data

Telus Corp. is partnering with electric vehicle charging network operator Flo to help improve reliability as adoption of clean vehicle technology is expected to ramp up.

The Vancouver-based telecommunications company says Flo will use its internet of things connectivity platform to provide real-time visibility on at least 60,000 chargers in Canada and the U.S. over the next five years.

That will allow Flo to monitor public and commercial charging stations, using data it receives to conduct diagnostics remotely and provide support when the products aren't working as they're supposed to.


Flo says its charger network is functional about 98 per cent of the time, while Telus says its network is 99.99 per cent reliable.

Telus vice-president of commercial sales for Quebec and Atlantic Ali Barakat says that with all light-duty vehicles sold in Canada required to be zero-emission by 2035, the company is aiming to support the development of critical infrastructure.

Earlier this year, Telus announced a partnership with Australian electric vehicle charging company Jolt to install up to 5,000 public fast chargers across Canada, running on the company's network.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Oct. 31, 2023.

CEO of massive rail project says hurdles abound — and express trains may be solution

From his offices on the 34th floor of 1 Place Ville Marie, Martin Imbleau has a nearly panoramic view of Montreal.

Clearly in view are Central Station and Victoria Bridge, which are both essential to passenger and freight traffic through the city.

Less evident is the route to be traced by Via Rail’s planned high-frequency rail (HFR) line from Toronto to Quebec City, a project headed by Imbleau to build a new set of dedicated tracks slated for completion in the mid-2030s.

Simply entering and exiting big cities quickly will be one of the thorniest challenges, Imbleau said.

“If you go to the Gare Centrale or Union Station or even the Gare du Palais in Quebec (City), you realize that on the last segment to reach those train stations the trains go fairly slowly. So it really affects your journey time,” Imbleau, CEO of Via HFR Inc. — an arm’s-length subsidiary of the passenger rail Crown corporation — said in an interview.

“One of the constraints is to get in and get out of the cities in a faster way.”

The existing tracks in and around the Greater Toronto Area are largely owned by regional transport authority Metrolinx and Canadian National Railway Co., with little room for more lines in a dense downtown.

In Quebec, the planned route from its capital along the north shore of the St. Lawrence River to Montreal would likely mean entering that city from the north. This raises the question of whether a new tunnel through Mount Royal would be created — the Caisse de dépôt et placement du Québec’s infrastructure arm has ruled out a second set of tracks through the existing tunnel, where the REM commuter line runs — to reach the heart of the city.

"It's not about frequency only. It's about being fast. It's about being reliable," Imbleau said.

While stops in Peterborough, Ont., Ottawa and Trois Rivières, Que. are mandated, there could be express trains that whiz through those cities without stopping, he said — as well as trains that do serve those communities.

“Imagine being able to (do) Peterborough-Toronto or Trois Rivières-Quebec in around an hour and 15 minutes. That changes completely how you commute between a region and a city,” Imbleau said.

The three consortiums selected to submit proposals for the roughly 1,000-kilometre line must each present two options: one allowing for speeds of up to 200 km/h, and another that can go even faster during high-speed legs of the journey.

Imbleau noted that the average speed of some trains deemed high-speed in Europe, such as France's 600-kilometre Paris-Montpellier route, notch below 200 km/h and takes well over three hours.

“One of the targets is three and a half hours, so it's pretty fast," he said, referring to the Toronto-Montreal route, which would cover roughly the same distance by way of Ottawa.

The second speed option would likely increase the project’s price tag. It was pegged at between $6 billion and $12 billion by former transport minister Omar Alghabra when it launched in 2021. Authorities have since shied away from estimates, however.

“For sure I’d be completely wrong,” said Imbleau, stating it wouldn’t be prudent to discuss numbers until the proposals land.

High-speed rail lines demand full-grade separation at road crossings, potentially requiring hundreds of millions of dollars for construction of dozens of overpasses and underpasses. In rural areas, this also requires drainage pumps, which in turn can require generators, piling onto maintenance costs.

Typically, some crossings are simply removed to save costs, aggravating local residents who may have to travel several more kilometres to traverse the tracks.

A Toronto-Montreal train that takes roughly four hours — the alternative target — would still lure many more riders and make it more financially self-supporting than Via Rail’s current route, which takes five hours between Toronto and Montreal and tolerates speeds no higher than 160 km/h. It runs on tracks owned mainly by CN, whose slower freight trains have priority, preventing more frequent trips.

Via enjoyed a subsidy of $70 per passenger on its Montreal-Ottawa-Toronto route last year, and $1,029 per passenger on its Canadian line between Vancouver and Toronto — all drawn from $672.5 million in government funding.

“One of the goals of the project is to reduce the subsidy being given to operate the service. It's to be as self-sufficient as possible,” Imbleau said.

He projected that the corridor would host 17 million riders per year by mid-century. Last year Via Rail’s eastern corridor, which includes Toronto, Ottawa, Montreal and Quebec City, furnished 2.48 million passengers, or three-quarters of its network-wide ridership.

However, the timeline for the zippy trains has already been slightly delayed, even before the proposals arrive. Initially planned for the early-2030s, Alghabra pinpointed the mid-2030s in July. The deadline for proposals was initially mid-July, but has now been pushed back to next fall, Via HFR said.

As for the speed of the trip itself, Pierre Barrieau, who teaches transportation and urban planning at the Université de Montreal, said steering clear of downtown Toronto and Montreal makes sense. Instead, a promising option is to drop riders at a suburban or midtown station that links up with a local or regional line.

"It’s just too expensive bringing the trains downtown,” he said. “That’s where you’re also going to be wasting incredible amounts of time.”

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Oct. 31, 2023.