Tuesday, October 31, 2023

Canadian govt, civil society at odds over Gaza invasion

DAWN

Published October 31, 2023

Children climb on the rubble of a destroyed home the day after an Israeli airstrike on the Nuseirat refugee camp, in Gaza Strip on Monday.—AFP

TORONTO: With a tragedy of immense proportions unfolding before the world’s eyes in Gaza, the heat from the conflict is being felt around the world, in all realms; Canada being no exception.

Despite being a G7 member and ‘the closest ally’ of the US, Ottawa, is finding it hard to balance its response.

On the streets, protests are breaking out throughout the country, virtually every day, urging the government to act. Although both pro-Palestine and pro-Israel are holding demonstrations, the pro-Palestine faction is obviously more dominant now, and cars waving Palestinian flags are also becoming a common sight in many parts of the country.

In the immediate aftermath of the October 7 raid on Israel by Hamas, Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau appeared to be solidly standing by Tel Aviv.

The stance generated a calibrated and strong reaction from within Canadian civil society, which so proudly speaks of its diversity.

Although cars waving Palestinian flags are becoming a common sight on the streets, Canadian varsities and legislatures are still trying to balance their pro-Israel tilt with pro-Palestinian public sentiment

To temper his stance, Trudeau visited a mosque in Toronto the very next Friday, where he received a somewhat hostile reception. He was booed, with many congregants underlining that people in Gaza are also humans.

“Shame on you. How many more Palestinian children need to be slaughtered?” a woman in the crowd was heard asking the prime minister outside the mosque, as he was leaving. “How many more before you call for a ceasefire?”

Muslims have historically been supporters of Trudeau and his Liberals, and many here think that this episode would carry a political backlash for him. With his popularity already sliding, he cannot afford to offend the Muslim vote bank much, observers say.

The conflagration in the Middle East has already resulted in a political casualty; the incumbent New Democrat Party (NDP) lawmaker from Hamilton, Toronto, 29-year-old Sarah Jama, was ejected from the party caucus over her statement on Gaza.

The rookie parliamentarian —who reportedly has family in the Palestinian territories — had focused on the plight of Palestinians under Israeli occupation in her statement. Later, she also accused Israel of being an “apartheid” state.

Student unions in the limelight

While the political fallout continues, another battle is raging in educational institutions, generating a debate on the issue of promoting the battle of ideas within the campuses and limits on it.

On October 12, three York University unions — the York Federation of Students, York University of Graduate Student Association and the Glendon College Student Union — issued a joint statement expressing solidarity with the Palestinian people “and their ongoing fight against settler-colonialism, apartheid, and genocide.”

The next morning, on Friday, the university issued a statement, saying it “unequivocally condemns the inflammatory statement(s)” by its student unions. Later Jill Dunlop, Ontario’s minister of colleges and universities urged student groups to apologise and rescind their stance.

The next week, on October 20, York University further demanded the executive board of the three student unions to step down, warning that noncompliance could result in sanctions, including the university no longer recognising the unions.

Around the same time, 74 students at Toronto Metropolitan University’s (TMU) Lincoln Alexander School of Law (LASL) delivered an online letter to the school, expressing their “unequivocal support” for Palestinians. The letter listed several demands, which included a call for the law school to “name and confront Israel’s colonial violence.”

It also urged the administration to recognise the Palestinian “resistance as fundamentally just.”

But as expected, this letter also sparked a backlash among certain sections of society, with online threats emerging to report the students to the Law Society of Ontario and to future law firm employers.

The university is now undertaking a formal independent review to see if the letter has breached policies on non-academic conduct and freedom of speech.

Then, last week, the Ontario-based Western University fired chaplain Aarij Anwer, who also served as a volunteer counsellor for Muslims, after he made online comments about the Gaza crisis that the school’s president called “divisive”.

Anwer’s post was in response to comments by former Canadian Senator Linda Frum, who criticized a Toronto rally supporting Palestinians.

In a statement on X, Anwer said: “No one is celebrating the murder of Israeli babies. Palestinians are mourning the death of their babies. It’s incredible how Israel sympathisers simultaneously are the oppressor and the victim.”

Published in Dawn, October 31st, 2023

COVID-19 Test Info of 81.5 Cr Indians Leaked in Biggest Data Breach: Report

A crore (/krɔːr/; abbreviated cr) denotes ten million (10,000,000 or 10⁷ in scientific notation) and is equal to 100 lakh in the Indian numbering system. It is written as 1,00,00,000

Newsclick Report | 30 Oct 2023

Names, Aadhaar and passport information, phone numbers and addresses have been advertised on the dark web, according to US cybersecurity agency Resecurity.

In the country’s biggest data leak, COVID-19 test details, including names, Aadhaar and passport information, phone numbers and addresses, of 81.5 crore Indians with the Indian Council of Medical Research (ICMR) have been advertised on the dark web.

According to an exclusive report by News18, American cybersecurity and intelligence agency Resecurity noticed the leak on October 9.

A threat actor going by the alias ‘pwn0001’ posted a thread on Breach Forums accessing Aadhaar and passport records.

Pwn0001 shared spreadsheets containing four large leak samples with fragments of Aadhaar data as proof1.

“One of the leaked samples contains 100,000 records of PII related to Indian residents. In this sample leak, HUNTER analysts identified valid Aadhaar Card IDs, which were corroborated via a government portal that provides a “Verify Aadhaar” feature. This feature allows people to validate the authenticity of Aadhaar credentials,” Resecurity said.

Pwn0001 claimed that the data—extracted from the COVID-19 test details—was sourced from ICMR.

Sources confirmed to News18 that the epicentre of leak has not been identified as parts of the test data are sent to the National Informatics Centre, ICMR and health ministry.

News18’s query, calls and messages sent to ICMR’s director general on Saturday remained unanswered.

According to sources, CERT-In informed ICMR about the breach and the verification of sample data, which matches with the actual data of ICMR.

After the leak, the government has roped in top officials of different agencies and ministries.

As foreign actors are involved in the leak, the sources added, it should be probed by a premier agency. The CBI will likely investigate the matter once the ICMR files a complaint.

At present, remedial measures have been taken and the required SoP has been deployed to control the damage.

Hackers have tried to hack ICMR data multiple times since February. Central agencies and the council are aware of it. Last year, more than 6,000 attempts were made to hack ICMR servers. Agencies had asked the ICMR to take remedial action to avert data leak, the sources said.

This is not the first time that the health system has been targeted. Last year, a cyber-attack triggered changes in various AIIMS services. News18 had reported that the attack was linked to “one of India’s neighbouring countries” with an IP address originating from there.

In June, a Telegram bot allegedly posted personal data of Indians registered with the CoWIN portal for vaccination. The health ministry denied the report and said that the allegations were “mischievous in nature”. Minister of state for electronics and IT Rajeev Chandrasekhar said that the nodal cyber security agency found that the CoWIN platform was not “directly breached”.

Apple Alert: Threat Notifications Strike at Heart of Indian Democracy, Says Apar Gupta

Newsclick Report | 31 Oct 2023

The founding director of @internetfreedom and lawyer, in an X post, calls for full government disclosure regarding its spyware purchases and deployments.

New Delhi: As the list of Opposition leaders, journalists and others, going public about getting Apple alerts of their iPhones, warning about ‘State-sponsored attack’ possibilities, Apar Gupta, and advocate and founder director of the Internet Freedom Foundation, has called for full disclosure by the Indian government of its spyware purchases and deployment.

“This issue strikes at the heart of Indian democracy,” he said, noting the fact that the timing of these notifications, ahead of the ensuing Assembly elections was indeed “alarming”.

On Tuesday morning, several Opposition leaders of the INDIA bloc tweeted on X scheenshots of Apple alerts, cautioning them against ‘State-sponsored attacks” on the iPhones. Congress leaders Shashi Tharoor, K C Venugopal and Pawan Khera, Samajwadi party’ chief Akhilesh Yadav, CPI(M) general secretary Sitaram Yechury, NCP’s Supriya Sule, Trinamool Congress MP Mahua Moitra , Shiv Sena (UBT) MP Priyanka Chaturvedi, senior journalists Siddharth Varadarajan and Sriram Karri are among those who received the Apple alerts.

Read the full X post by Apar Gupta on the threat notifications and their implications for India’s democracy ahead of the elections:

“These threat notifications are due to state sponsored attacks that use spyware such as Pegasus to infect their smartphone. As per Apple, “Apple threat notifications are designed to inform and assist users who may have been targeted by state-sponsored attackers. These users are individually targeted because of who they are or what they do. Unlike traditional cybercriminals, state-sponsored attackers apply exceptional resources to target a very small number of specific individuals and their devices, which makes these attacks much harder to detect and prevent. State-sponsored attacks are highly complex, cost millions of dollars to develop and often have a short shelf life....State-sponsored attackers are very well-funded and sophisticated, and their attacks evolve over time. Detecting such attacks relies on threat intelligence signals that are often imperfect and incomplete. It’s possible that some Apple threat notifications may be false alarms, or that some attacks are not detected.”

Let me directly address the naysayers. Are these merely 'false alarms'? Let's consider the evidence:

Firstly, reports indicate that India has been a ground for deploying Pegasus spyware by NSO Group, an Israeli firm. In October, 2019, state attackers targeted activists, and in July, 2021 they extended their reach to public officials and journalists.

The Union Government has not clearly denied these activities in the Supreme Court of India. Moreover, investigations by Amnesty, Citizen Lab, and notifications from WhatsApp corroborate its use, suggesting a pattern in India and a matching victim profile.

Secondly, Access Now and Citizen Lab last month have confirmed the validity of Apple's threat notifications sent to Russian journalists, including Meduza's publisher. These confirmations lend high credibility to such notifications.

Thirdly, Financial Times disclosed in March that India is seeking new spyware contracts starting at approximately $16 million and potentially escalating to $120 million in the next few years. These contracts involve companies like the Intellexa Alliance, recently featured in a report called 'The Predator Files'.

With imminent state assembly elections and the 2024 general elections not far off, the timing of these threat notifications is alarming.

Public cynicism or judicial stupor should not preclude us from demanding an independent, transparent technical analysis and clear disclosures from the Government of India regarding its spyware purchases and deployments. This issue strikes at the heart of Indian democracy.”

Opposition Leaders Say They got Apple Alert on ‘State-Sponsored Attacks' on iPhones

PTI | 31 Oct 2023

TMC’s Mahua Moitra, Shiv Sena (UBT)'s Priyanka Chaturvedi, Congress' leaders Shashi Tharoor and Pawan Khera shared X screenshots.

Opposition Leaders Say They got Apple Alert on ‘State-Sponsored Attacks' on iPhones

Representational image. | Image courtesy: Pexels

New Delhi: At least four Opposition leaders on Tuesday claimed to have received messages from Apple warning them of "state-sponsored attackers trying to remotely compromise" their iPhones and posted the purported screenshots on their X (formerly Twitter) handles.

Trinamool Congress MP Mahua Moitra, Shiv Sena (UBT)'s Priyanka Chaturvedi, Congress' Lok Sabha Member Shashi Tharoor and his party's media and publicity department head Pawan Khera shared the screenshots on X.

PTI reached out to Apple for comments on the matter but there was no immediate response.

"Received text and email from Apple warning me that the government trying to hack into my phone and email. @HMOIndia -- get a life. Adani and PMO bullies - your fear makes me pity you," Moitra said sharing the screenshots. Tagging Chaturvedi to the post, she claimed that three other leaders of the opposition INDIA alliance have received similar messages.

Chaturvedi also shared a similar screenshot which she claimed to have received from Apple and said, "Wonder who? Shame on you. Cc: @HMOIndia for your kind attention".

Replying to Moitra's post, she said, "So not just me but also @MahuaMoitra has received this warning from Apple. Will @HMOIndia investigate?" Congress MP from Thiruvananthapuram Shashi Tharoor also shared a post about him receiving a similar message.

"Received from an Apple ID, threat-notifications@apple.com, which I have verified. Authenticity confirmed. Glad to keep underemployed officials busy at the expenses of taxpayers like me! Nothing more important to do?" he said on X, tagging the Prime Minister's Office, the Congress, party chief Mallikarjun Kharge and Rahul Gandhi.

Khera also shared a screenshot of a similar message on X and said, "Dear Modi Sarkar, why are you doing this?" The message shared by the MPs stated, "ALERT: State-sponsored attackers may be targeting your iPhone".

"Apple believes you are being targeted by state-sponsored attackers who are trying to remotely compromise the iPhone associated with your Apple ID. These attackers are likely targeting you individually because of who you are or what you do. If your device is compromised by a state-sponsored attacker, they may be able to remotely access your sensitive data, communications, or even the camera and microphone. While it's possible this is a false alarm, please take this warning seriously," it stated.

Bangladesh's Garment Workers Intensify Protest for Wage Raise After two Killed

People's Reporter | 31 Oct 2023

The striking employees claimed their minimum pay should be Rs 23,000 starting January next year, following the new remuneration structure.

23,000.00 Indian Rupees = 276.18 US Dollars

Dhaka: Bangladesh’s garment workers from factories in Dhaka and its surrounding areas have been staging protests for over a week for their wages to be raised.

What began as a peaceful movement is turning into a more aggressive one as workers at several locations blocked highways in support of their demands.

The movement takes place in the wake of the untimely death of Russell Howladar, a 26-year-old employee who was allegedly shot and killed by the police. In a fire, one more worker perished.

For the last week, the employees of many textile companies in the districts of Gazipur, Mirpur, Ashulia, Savar, and Narayanganj in Dhaka have persisted in their agitation and demand for a pay rise.

The striking employees claimed their minimum pay should be Rs 23,000 starting January next year, following the new remuneration structure. Because of this, their grades are meant to be adjusted this month, but the factory owner has not acted to raise the pay or modify the grade yet. Their intention is to continue operating the factory on the previous wage structure.

Shafiqul Molla, an agitating worker, said that currently, they get a salary of Rs 8,000. According to the new wage structure, their salary is supposed to be Rs 23,000, but the owner is ready to increase it only to Rs 10,000 to 11,000. They should have increased this salary by changing grades, but the owners did not negotiate with the workers regarding the new wage hike and the grade change. That is why they are forced to take to the streets, they said.

A protester, Abu Sufian, said, “Now I get a salary of Rs. 8,000. The current rise in commodity prices cannot be sustained. Therefore, everyone has started a movement to increase the salary.”

Another agitating worker, Ali Ahmed, said, “In the current market, the prices of all kinds of goods have increased, but our salaries have not increased even though the prices of goods have increased. We are paid around Rs 8,000 per month. With this money, the family cannot be run by paying the monthly expenses and the child’s school fees. So, we have demanded to make our salary a minimum of 23 thousand rupees.”

Shafiqul Islam, a protesting worker, said that “everyone entered the factory in the morning, but they stopped the machine. At one stage, when the workers of other factories came down on the road, they also joined the protest march on the road, and the police then fired tear gas shells and drove them away.”

The Industrial Area Police-2 said that a worker died in a clash with the police during the ongoing workers’ movement in Gazipur, demanding an increase in wages.

After the death of a worker in a police firing, the agitating workers set fire to the garment factory of Anant Group’s ABM Fashion Limited in Gazipur. Fire service personnel brought the fire under control. At least 50 garment workers were injured by rubber bullets and baton charges during the labour-police clash. Fifteen of them have been admitted to Gazipur Shaheed Tajuddin Ahmad Medical College Hospital.

According to local sources, workers have been protesting in Konabari and surrounding areas since the morning of October 30 for seven days, demanding a salary hike. The police clashed with the workers several times. Later, the police dispersed the protesters by firing tear gas shells and rubber bullets.

Meanwhile, an injured worker died in Gazipur’s Basan area. When the news spread, the workers started protesting again in the Konabari area. In the meantime, the ABM Fashion Limited factory was set on fire in that area.

The police also clashed with garment workers in Dhaka’s Mirpur, Ashulia, Savar, and Narayanganj. Several workers were injured in the incident.

Various labour organisations and garment workers have been demanding increased wages in Bangladesh for the past several months. Additionally, various international organisations and countries were pressuring the country’s authorities to increase the wages of garment workers.

The workers have demanded a wage of Rs 23,000, but the government and the owners have not made any kind of compromise on the matter so far. On the other hand, although there is a wage increase at the beginning of the new year, the owner has not yet discussed with the workers the new wage increase along with the grade change. As a result, the workers in the garment industry started protesting directly on the streets to demand an increase in wages.

According to the sources of the Industrial Police, workers’ dissatisfaction was seen in 69 factories in Ashulia, Gazipur, and Narayanganj areas from October 22 to 28 due to the demand for salary and wage increases.

State Minister for Labour Mannujan Sufian held a meeting with the labour leaders last Sunday. About 100 leaders of trade unions and federations were present in the meeting held at Shram Bhavan. They urged the government to announce minimum wages for garment workers soon. In response, the state minister said there is time until November 30 to recommend it to the wage board, and the new wages will be implemented on December 1.

The angry workers complained that when they took to the streets to demand an increase in wages, the police beat the workers. Tear shells and rubber bullets were fired at them, while in some places, the workers were attacked by outsiders.

US Seeks Strategic Dialogue With Russia

M K Bhadrakumar | 31 Oct 2023

Against the backdrop of the gathering storms in West Asia, the Biden Administration probably seeks to calm the nerves.

Almost four weeks into Hamas’ attack on Israel, Russia is in no hurry to exploit the Joe Biden administration’s quandary over the collapse of West Asia’s security. The Western media was unanimous that Russia was waiting in the wings to seize the opportunity once the US took its eye off the ball in Ukraine. However, no such thing happened.

The Ukraine war is on autopilot. The compass has been set, the die is cast and the calculus is holding steady with regard to the strategic objectives set by President Vladimir Putin in February last year. Russia senses that it has gained the upper hand in the war and that is irreversible.

Ukraine’s counteroffensive has failed and the fighting is presently restricted to two sectors of the frontline, as Russian forces strengthen the security of the Donetsk region and seek to regain control of territories up north in the borderlands of Donbass and Kharkov region from where they retreated for tactical reasons last September and October.

Yet, Moscow has not begun its grand offensive, as many had predicted. One plausible explanation is that Moscow is watching the maelstrom sweeping through West Asia. Moscow is particularly sensitive about any spillover into Syria.

With an eye on the formidable US naval build-up in Eastern Mediterranean with the deployment of two aircraft carrier groups, President Vladimir Putin has publicised that Russian jets equipped with hypersonic Kinzhal missiles are roaming the skies above the Black Sea, which can strike targets 1,000 km away at Mach 9 speed, which no existing missile defence system can intercept. Suffice to say, the war in Ukraine remains attritional.

Curiously, Russia conducted a simulated nuclear strike in a drill on Wednesday overseen by Putin, hours after the Russian parliament voted to rescind the country’s ratification of the global comprehensive nuclear test ban treaty (CTBT). The drill needs to be seen in the broader context of global strategic stability.

A Kremlin statement said, “The purpose of the training exercise was to check the level of preparedness of military command bodies, as well as the skill of the leadership and operational personnel in managing the troops (forces) under their command.” Everything, however, adds up in these extraordinary times.

At its most obvious level, the Palestine-Israel conflict is a manifestation of the growing imbalance in the existing system of international relations. New wars are emerging; long standing conflicts are mutating (e.g., Nagorno-Karabakh). Last week, Pakistan bracketed Palestine and Kashmir as the UN’s unfinished business in the post-colonial era. North Korea and Iran are flash points that have no military solution.

In the months ahead, without doubt, Washington will continue to provide Israel with military and diplomatic support but an extended Israeli operation lasting months in Gaza will mean dispersal of US resources that might be needed in other theatres. The conflict in Gaza underscores the imperative for a rethink in the US’ notions of global hegemony. The fact remains that the US, despite its self-proclaimed status as the “Indispensable Nation” (Madeleine Albright) and the guarantor of “rules-based order,” failed to prevent the latest eruption of conflict in West Asia.

Arguably, therefore, the latest US proposal for a systematic resumption of strategic dialogue with Russia can be seen as a sign of positive thinking. Unsurprisingly, Moscow has displayed a studied indifference to the US proposal. But that needn’t be taken as the last word. Historically, Soviet-American strategic dialogue brought on board into the agenda all major issues and most minor issues affecting international security.

The big question, therefore, is the timing of the US proposal. Against the backdrop of the gathering storms in West Asia, the Biden Administration probably seeks to calm the nerves by proposing talks with Russia on global strategic balance, since the guardrails in arms control no longer exist. This is one thing.

At any rate, Russia’s “neutrality” in a West Asian conflict could also be a consideration. Equally, Western leaderships understand that the war against Russia is practically lost — although they will not admit it publicly — and engagement with Russia is needed.

Again, although the US has provided Israel with significant military and diplomatic support and keep influencing the latter not to escalate the conflict, there are variables in the situation and any big conflagration in West Asia will require a massive concentration of material and financial resources that are limited even for a superpower, since there are other unresolved problems in the world, too.

The breakdown of trust in the Russian-American ties hurts the US interests. Fundamentally, it must also be understood that what Moscow seeks even today after nearly 20 months of battling NATO and the US in Ukraine’s killing fields is a sustained engagement with Washington and a willingness to accommodate mutual interests.

On its part, Russia is conducting itself as a responsible power vis-a-vis the crisis in Gaza. There is no shred of evidence to show that Russia has acted as a “spoiler”. On the contrary, Moscow has been projecting its credentials as a potential peacemaker who enjoys good relations with all key players — Israel, Hamas, Iran and other regional states alike.

In fact, President Biden’s recent remarks on the Gaza situation bring the US position rather close to Russia’s. Biden read out the following from a prepared text at a joint press conference with Prime Minister Anthony Albanese of Australia:

“Israel has the right and, I would add, responsibility to respond to the slaughter of their people. And we will ensure Israel has what it needs to defend itself against these terrorists. That’s a guarantee…

“But that does not lessen the need for — to operate and align with the laws of war for the Israeli — it has to do everything in its power — Israel has to do everything in its power, as difficult as it is, to protect innocent civilians. And it’s difficult. I also want to take a moment to look ahead toward the future that we seek.

“Israelis and Palestinians equally deserve to live side by side in safety, dignity, and peace. And there’s no going back to the status quo as it stood on October the 6th. That means ensuring Hamas can no longer terrorise Israel and use Palestinian civilians as human shields.

“It also means that when this crisis is over, there has to be a vision of what comes next. And in our view, it has to be a two-state solution.”

Putin couldn’t have put this across differently. There is a sense of expectation in Moscow that in the emergent conditions in regional security, the US and its allies will “reconsider their notions of defeating Russia in the Ukraine conflict at any cost” — as an establishment think tanker wrote in the Kremlin-funded RT last week.

Trust is lacking, he concluded, “compromises without the full consideration of Russian interests” are difficult to reach, but “a pivotal stage in the (world) order … is taking shape before our eyes.”

US Diplomacy Losing Traction in West Asia

M.K. Bhadrakumar | 28 Oct 2023

Isolating Iran is no longer possible.

Russia’s Dy Foreign Minister & Special Envoy Mikhail Bogdanov (C) held talks with Iran’s Dy Foreign Minister Ali Bagheri Kani and Hamas’ head of International Relations Mousa Marzouk, Moscow, Oct. 26, 2023

The US President Joe Biden is convinced that one of the reasons why Hamas launched the attack on Israel was because of the announcement during the G20 Summit in New Delhi on the India-Middle East-Europe Economic Corridor . But he also admitted that this reading was based purely on his instinct and he did not have any proof for it.

Biden’s motivation in saying so lies in the US’ desperate need to reclaim its leadership role in the Muslim West Asia. The two most compelling realities rejecting the American leadership are: one, a strong united regional solidarity cutting across sectarian divides to seek a settlement on Palestine, like at no time before, and, two, the Saudi-Iranian rapprochement.

The latest developments involving Hamas and Israel undermined the US efforts to persuade Saudi Arabia to recognise Israel. No doubt, the Saudi stance on the Palestine problem has hardened. Biden reached out to Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman on Tuesday in an attempt to create as much convergence as possible between Washington and Riyadh.

But the White House readout shows that a critical mass remained elusive; even as the two leaders agreed on generalities, they couldn’t agree on the all-important specific issue of an urgent ceasefire between Israel and Hamas.

This profound disagreement is also reflected in the UN Security Council where the United Arab Emirates supported the Russian draft resolution, which called for “an immediate, durable and fully respected humanitarian ceasefire”, but opposed the US draft resolution, which was evasive on ending the fighting and instead harped on Israel’s right to self-defence.

A joint statement on Thursday signed by the Foreign Ministers of Egypt, Jordan, Bahrain, the UAE, Saudi Arabia, Oman, Qatar, Kuwait and Morocco called for an immediate ceasefire in the Gaza Strip. In an admonition to the US and Israel, the statement stated, “The right to self-defence by the United Nations Charter does not justify blatant violations of humanitarian and international law.”

Looking ahead, the big question is about American intention. Is it muscle-flexing or a hidden plot to create facts on the ground that can be seized as casus belli to launch an offensive against Iran, which has been a longstanding project of the neoconservatives dominating the US foreign policy discourse?

Biden declared at a press conference in the White House on Wednesday that he had warned Iran’s supreme leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei that if Tehran continued to “move against” US forces in the region, Washington would respond.

To quote Biden, “My warning to the Ayatollah was that if they continue to move against those troops, we will respond. And he should be prepared. It has nothing to do with Israel.” (Biden was referring to growing attacks on American bases in Iraq and Syria.)

The political deputy at the Iranian president’s office, Mohammad Jamshidi has since countered Biden’s remark, saying, “The US messages were neither directed to the leader of the Islamic Revolution nor were they anything but requests from the Iranian side. If Biden thinks he has warned Iran, he should ask his team to show him the text of the messages.”

Hours later, when asked to clarify, the US National Security Council spokesman John Kirby parried, “There was a direct message relayed. That’s as far as I’m going to go.” Conceivably, the recent attacks by militant groups in Syria and Iraq pose a headache to Biden in domestic politics. Reportedly, some two dozen US servicemen have been injured and one military contractor killed so far. There are roughly 2,500 American troops in Iraq and some 900 in Syria.

Possibly, Biden was grandstanding. That is not something unusual in US-Iran standoffs. But more likely, the US hopes to nudge Iran to rein in the free-wheeling militia groups in Syria and Iraq from exacerbating the situation.

Iran is on the same page as China and Russia and the Arab States in calling for an immediate ceasefire so that conditions are available for diplomacy to meaningfully tackle the Palestine problem. They stand for a two-state solution. Ironically, the US also claims it supports a two-state solution.

This is what Biden stated at a press conference in the White House yesterday, reading out of a prepared text: “Israel has the right and, I would add, responsibility to respond to the slaughter of their people. And we will ensure Israel has what it needs to defend itself against these terrorists. That’s a guarantee…

“I also want to take a moment to look ahead toward the future that we seek. Israelis and Palestinians equally deserve to live side by side in safety, dignity, and peace. And there’s no going back to the status quo as it stood on October the 6th …

“It also means that when this crisis is over, there has to be a vision of what comes next. And in our view, it has to be a two-state solution. It means a concentrated effort from all the parties — Israelis, Palestinians, regional partners, global leaders — to put us on a path toward peace.”

Do these words sound as if Biden is preparing for a war with Iran? For the first time, perhaps, there is a ray of hope that the US will no longer work around the Palestine problem. The bottom line, as the deliberations at the UN Security Council also testify, is that all responsible powers understand that West Asia continues to be the centre of gravity in world politics and a conflagration in the region could easily turn into a world war. And none of the big powers wants such an apocalyptic outcome.

That said, while the US still has unrivalled power in West Asia, its influence has diminished, as new realities emerged:

Israel has grown more powerful militarily and economically vis-a-vis Palestinians, but no longer enjoys regional dominance.
Saudi Arabia and the UAE, two dominant powers in West Asia, are increasingly asserting their own interests.
China, although a relatively new player, is no longer confining itself to economic diplomacy.
The US has lost the capacity to leverage the world oil market, as Russia works closely with Saudi Arabia within the ambit of OPEC+ to calibrate oil production level and prices.
Consequently, the petrodollar is weakening.
The Abraham Accords have been shelved practically.
The Arab-Israeli conflict has assumed new dimensions in recent years, thanks to the ascendance of the axis of resistance, which requires new postures and operational thinking on the part of the US.
Israeli politics has swung sharply to the extreme right.
The global environment is highly complicated; the peace process can no longer be under US mentorship. On Thursday, Russia hosted a trilateral meeting in Moscow with Iran’s deputy foreign minister and a Hamas delegation. Later, Russian Deputy Foreign Minister Mikhail Bogdanov, who is also Special Presidential Envoy for West Asia and Africa, announced that Palestinian leader Mahmoud Abbas “will soon arrive on an official visit” to Moscow for talks with Russian President Vladimir Putin.

In an all-out war with Iran, the US will take heavy casualties and the state of Israel may face destruction. Indeed, Iran may opt for nuclear deterrent capability. It is a near-certainty that a US-Iran war will turn into a world war. Clearly, war is not an option.

There is high risk, therefore, in an Israeli ground invasion of Gaza. If Israel gets bogged down in Gaza, which by no means cannot be ruled out, there is a high possibility that Hezbollah may open a second front. And that, in turn, can trigger a chain reaction that may spin out of control. Herein lies the danger if a ceasefire is not agreed upon early enough in the conflict.

MK Bhadrakumar is a former diplomat. He was India’s ambassador to Uzbekistan and Turkey. The views are personal.

Courtesy: Indian Punchline

LA REVUE GAUCHE - Left Comment