Gambling addiction may increase the risk of long-term sick leave

Peer-Reviewed Publication

KAROLINSKA INSTITUTET

 

IMAGE: 

VIKTOR MÅNSSON

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CREDIT: PHOTO: SANNA CASSON

Gambling addiction can increase the risk of long-term sick leave for several years, according to a new study published in Psychological Medicine. Researchers from Karolinska Institutet behind the study point to the need to detect people with gambling addiction in time to avoid financial and health problems.  

Gambling addiction is a psychiatric condition characterized by prolonged and problematic gambling that leads to negative financial, health and social consequences. 1.3 percent of the Swedish population, corresponding to 105,000 Swedes, have gambling problems or an increased risk of gambling problems, but the number of unreported cases is believed to be much higher. The condition has been described as a "hidden addiction" that can go on without the knowledge of the environment.  

The research team, with expertise in addiction, gambling, epidemiology, and sickness absence, used several linked national registers to study 2,830 working-age individuals between 19 and 62 who had been diagnosed with gambling addiction and examined their sickness absence over six years. They then compared these data to an equivalent group of 28 300 people without a gambling addiction diagnosis.  

 "Thanks to the extensive data in the different registers, we were also able to control for a range of factors that are linked to both gambling addiction and sickness absence, including physical and mental health, gender, age, length of education, and how densely populated area the individual lives in," says the study's last author Yasmina Molero, researcher at the Department of Clinical Neuroscience, Karolinska Institutet.

The researchers found that people with gambling addiction had an 89% higher risk of being on long-term sick leave, which means more than 90 days per year during the year they were diagnosed.   

"This is particularly worrying as this group often has a history of mental health problems and the ability to work is important for mental and financial recovery," says the study's first author Viktor Månsson, researcher at the same department.

The study also shows that the risk is unevenly distributed. Being female, having less education and living in less densely populated areas were linked to a higher risk of long-term sick leave.  

According to the researchers, the results are important because there is a lack of knowledge about the consequences of gambling addiction over time and how they can affect the individual in terms of health and workability, and ultimately financial stability and participation in society through work.  

“The study shows that we need to detect gambling problems at an earlier stage in health care and at workplaces and increase access to help for affected people so that they can break negative trajectories earlier. Gambling addiction risks going unnoticed, and the problems can become extensive before they are noticed and diagnosed in health care, something that this study shows," says Viktor Månsson.   

The next step in the research is to continue to develop methods for earlier detection of gambling addiction and to educate healthcare professionals about the problem, Yasmina Molero explains.   

“As gambling addiction is often a long-term problem, it will also be important to follow people over an even longer period, for example up to ten years, to find out more about the long-term consequences for those affected and their environment.”

The research was mainly funded by Region Stockholm and Forte. The researchers declare that there is no conflict of interest.   

Publication: "The risk and development of work disability among individuals with gambling disorder: a longitudinal case-cohort study in Sweden", Viktor Månsson, Emma Pettersson, Ellenor Mittendorfer- Rutz, Joar Guterstam, Anne H Berman, Nitya Jayaram Lindström, Yasmina Molero, Psychological Medicine, online November 20, 2023, doi: 10.1017/S0033291723003288

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JOURNAL

Psychological Medicine

DOI

10.1017/S0033291723003288 

METHOD OF RESEARCH

Observational study

SUBJECT OF RESEARCH

People

ARTICLE TITLE

The risk and development of work disability among individuals with gambling disorder: a longitudinal case-cohort study in Sweden

ARTICLE PUBLICATION DATE

20-Nov-2023

 

State-of-the-art nanomaterial enabling ecofriendly removal of fine dust precursors

Development of world's first alkaline ceramic nanocomposite material that can reduce fine dust precursors at room temperature in an eco-friendly manner

Business Announcement

NATIONAL RESEARCH COUNCIL OF SCIENCE & TECHNOLOGY

 

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(A) SEM MICROGRAPH; (B) HR-TEM MICROGRAPH; (C) EDAX ANALYSIS; (D) 2D ELEMENTAL MAPPING OF SODIUM-MANGANESE OXIDE.

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CREDIT: KOREA INSTITUTE OF CIVIL ENGINEERING AND BUILDING TECHNOLOGY

Over the past decade, fine dust conditions in Korea have worsened, as perceived by the general public, with an increase in the number of days per year featuring high-concentration fine dust. Additionally, the previous maximum fine-dust concentration level has been surpassed. In response, the Korean government has expanded its financial investment in efforts aimed at addressing fine-dust issues.

Fine dust consists of particles that are too small to be seen with the naked eye. When these particles enter the human body through the skin and respiratory system, they can cause various diseases. According to a survey conducted by the Korea Environment Institute, three in ten people in Korea have experienced fine dust-induced diseases. Notably, NO2 and NO, among the main components of exhaust gas, are known as sources of fine dust.

Against this backdrop, the Korea Institute of Civil Engineering and Building Technology (KICT, President Kim Byung-suk) has developed a material for key components that can absorb NOx and SOx in an eco-friendly and efficient manner.

Currently, selective catalytic reduction (SCR) and flue gas desulfurization (FGD), based on oxidation-reduction reactions, are among the most widely used methods to remove NOx and SOx in the field. These techniques, however, require large amounts of thermal energy and high temperatures. Simply put, they are high-energy-consuming methods.

As an alternative, the ‘Environmental Nanomaterials Laboratory’ under the KICT's Department of Environmental Research has recently developed a material that can immediately mineralize pollutants via a complex mechanism in which SOx and NOx is easily adsorbed and oxidized at room temperature. Another advantage of the state-of-the-art nanocomposite material developed by a research team led by Dr. Jiyeol Bae is that it can be regenerated for recycling through simple chemical treatments, so that it can be repeatedly reused.

This ceramic nanomaterial, composed of sodium-manganese oxides, is a hybrid material that combines adsorption and oxidation reactions, which chemically absorbs SOx and NOx while immediately mineralizing them into sulfate ions and nitrite ions. The research team published the world's first paper on materials capable of mineralizing acid gases at room temperature. They will continue their study to make the developed material more widely applicable as an energy-efficient and eco-friendly solution for efficiently reducing SOx and NOx gases.

Dr. Jiyeol Bae, who led this project, said, “With the development of this novel nanomaterial, it is now possible to implement a system that can reduce fine-dust precursors from urban environments in an eco-friendly and cost-effective manner. All these efforts will help the general public enjoy clean and healthy air.”

 

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The Korea Institute of Civil Engineering and Building Technology, a government-funded research institute with 40 years of extensive research experience, is at the forefront of solving national issues that are directly related to the quality of the people’s life.

The research was supported by the Ministry of Science and ICT, of the Republic of Korea. An article explaining the results of this research was published in the 13 issue of Scientific reports this year, a renowned international journal in the environmental and chemistry field (IF:4.997).

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DOI

10.1038/s41598-023-29274-9 

 

Texas A&M researchers develop comprehensive genetic map for bison, discover gene responsible for albinism

Discovery marks the first time anyone has determined the gene mutation responsible for an observable trait in bison

Peer-Reviewed Publication

TEXAS A&M UNIVERSITY

 

IMAGE: 

 

WHITE CLOUD, A FEMALE ALBINO BISON, LIVED WITH THE NATIONAL BUFFALO MUSEUM HERD IN JAMESTOWN, NORTH DAKOTA, UNTIL HER DEATH IN 2016 AT THE AGE OF 20. RESEARCHERS AT TEXAS A&M UNIVERSITY’S SCHOOL OF VETERINARY MEDICINE AND BIOMEDICAL SCIENCES RECENTLY THE DISCOVERED THE GENE RESPONSIBLE FOR ALBINISM IN BISON.

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CREDIT: PHOTO COURTESY OF SEARLE SWEDLUND AND THE NATIONAL BUFFALO MUSEUM

By Courtney Price, Texas A&M University School of Veterinary Medicine & Biomedical Sciences

A research team led by scientists from the Texas A&M School of Veterinary Medicine & Biomedical Sciences (VMBS) has developed the most comprehensive genome yet for the North American bison, bringing the animal’s genetic roadmap up to date with the latest genome sequencing technology. In doing so, the research team also discovered the gene responsible for albinism in bison.

The study — recently published  in G3: Genes, Genomes, and Genetics — details the development of this high-resolution reference genome, which the researchers then used to produce the first test for genetic mutations, starting with the mutation responsible for albinism.

Albinism, a rare condition characterized by a lack of pigment in an animal’s body, making them look white with red eyes, has historical significance in that albino bison have been recognized as a religious symbol for some Native American Indigenous tribes. 

The study also lays the framework for determining other genetic variations that impact important bison traits, such as those that contribute to the health and production value of this species.

New Genome, New Possibilities

Dr. James Derr, a VMBS professor of veterinary pathobiology and genetics who led the research team that created the first bison genome back in 2015, assembled the team that developed this new reference genome. This team includes assistant professor of genetics Dr. Brian Davis, graduate student Sam Stroupe, and representatives from Texas Parks and Wildlife and the National Park Service.

“Because reference genomes can help researchers identify and characterize genes that are responsible for a large number of traits, this technology is used to do all kinds of things, including diagnosing health conditions and developing targeted treatments,” Davis said.

The newest bison reference genome was developed using technology that allows researchers to create genomes based on DNA from hybrids, which are animals with DNA from two different species. In this case, the researchers used DNA from a type of bison-cow hybrid called an F1, or individuals with a perfect 50-50 split between its parents’ DNA.

In general, F1 hybrids between bison and cattle are rare but have historically happened, since we now know that most bison herds in North America contain descendants of hybrids between bison and cattle — a discovery that Derr and his research partners made last year.

“One day we got a call from Texas Parks and Wildlife saying they knew someone who had an F1 hybrid,” Derr said. “It was the first fully documented, first-generation F1 hybrid I have seen in 25 years of working with bison. That’s why we were able to do this.”

To create the new bison genome, the researchers first sequenced the genome of the F1 hybrid as well as the bison mom and the domestic cattle father. With this information, they were able to separate bison DNA from the cattle DNA regions in the hybrid. 

Since the cattle genome is already very advanced, it provided a reference for creating the new bison genome, helping to guide researchers in developing the complete high-resolution reference bison genome.

To prove the utility of the new genome, the team set out to discover which gene mutation was responsible for albinism in bison and to create a genetic test that could be used to identify carriers of that mutation. 

The discovery is the first time anyone has successfully determined the gene mutation responsible for an observable trait in bison.

“We knew albinism was an inherited recessive trait, but we didn’t know which gene was responsible,” Stroupe said. “So, we sequenced the DNA from a few albino bison and compared them to those of normal coloration to find the mutation that causes albinism. As it turns out, the mutation causes an important enzyme to cease functioning correctly, which leads to the lack of skin pigmentation.”

The Uniqueness Of Albino Bison

Many North American Indigenous peoples regard white bison as sacred entities with prophetic spiritual associations. While not all white bison have albinism, the birth of one is cause for celebration in some communities.

Despite this cultural significance, Derr isn’t suggesting that people try to produce albino bison using genetic testing. 

“Sadly, albino bison are often not very healthy,” Derr said. “They tend to develop skin cancers, and they can develop other health problems as they age.”

Albino bison are also different from white or tan bison that result from crossing bison with white cattle, particularly Charolais. These bison lack the red eyes and pink nose of true albinos.

Now that a more accurate bison genome exists, scientists can learn more about the genetic makeup of North America’s bison population.

“The development of this new reference genome and the identification of a causative genetic mutation is exciting news for bison,” Derr said. “It opens the doors for new discoveries and insights into bison genetics. 

“Overall, this is a vital step toward the future conservation management of the United States’ national mammal,” he said. 

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JOURNAL

G3 Genes Genomes Genetics

DOI

10.1093/g3journal/jkad156 

SUBJECT OF RESEARCH

Animals

ARTICLE TITLE

Chromosome-level reference genome for North American bison (Bison bison) and variant database aids in identifying albino mutation

 

Protect delicate polar ecosystems by mapping biodiversity

Peer-Reviewed Publication

UNIVERSITY OF EAST ANGLIA

Polar regions contain vast, undiscovered biodiversity but are both the most-threatened and least-understood areas of the world. 

Now scientists led by the University of East Anglia (UEA) and the British Antarctic Survey (BAS) are calling for a roadmap of polar ecosystems to fill that knowledge gap, preserve polar life and even protect “our everyday life and our planet’s health”. The study would map all biodiversity in those regions, from the atmosphere to the deep sea and from land to the oceans. 

The authors said concerted action is required to mitigate the impact of warming on polar ecosystems via conservation efforts, to sustainably manage these unique habitats and their ecosystem services, and for the sustainable bioprospecting of novel genes and compounds for societal gain.   

‘Multi-omics for studying and understanding polar life’, is published today in Nature Communications. The paper is co-authored by UEA, BAS and the University of Bielefeld, Germany.   

Polar ecosystems are the most threatened because they are the most sensitive to global warming. They are being lost at a rapid pace and with them all the biology that provides ecosystem services and biology-driven regulation of the climate, including the carbon cycle. 

Prof Thomas Mock, Professor of Marine Microbiology in UEA’s School of Environmental Sciences, is the joint lead author with Prof Melody Clark, Project Leader for the British Antarctic Survey. 

Prof Thomas Mock said: “Biodiversity projections for the polar regions can only be reliably constructed if we have a sufficiently profound understanding of the diversity, ecological functions, and interrelations of polar organisms, as well as their resilience to climate change. 

“These remote regions play substantial, often underappreciated, roles in the carbon cycle and drive global nutrient and dissolved organic matter fluxes. Consequently, polar environmental and ecological processes are intimately connected with our everyday life and our planet’s health, much of which is underpinned by the endemic biota, from viruses to large animals. 

“There is strong evidence that climate-induced changes in the polar regions are already altering species distributions on land and in the sea, with major impacts on ecosystem function.” 

Some species have shifted poleward, which has a knock-on effect on the food chain. Polar life, from microbes to seals, whales and polar bears, largely depends on overall low temperature and a substantial snow and ice cover, which are experiencing the impacts of global warming.   

In the Arctic, temperatures are rising at least four times faster than elsewhere, destabilising the Arctic jet stream and increasing the likelihood of extreme weather events including heat waves, drought and flooding in temperate regions.  

On land, permafrost melting and collapsing Arctic coastlines are dramatically altering ecological interactions and biogeochemistry due to the release of millennia-old carbon stores, trace elements, nutrients and potentially even deep-frozen ancient viruses and pathogenic bacteria.  

In the oceans, the increased seasonal melting of sea ice is stabilizing surface waters too much, which reduces the amount of nutrients required for primary production to take place.     

Similarly, the situation in the Southern Ocean and Antarctic continent is equally bleak, particularly for the Antarctic Peninsula, which has already experienced substantial levels of warming that has increased the loss of sea ice and glaciers.     

The Southern Ocean is responsible for the uptake of three-quarters of the anthropogenic heat absorbed by the ocean and up to half of the carbon drawdown. It accounts for around 40 per cent of the global oceanic uptake of anthropogenic CO2 and around 50 per cent of the total atmospheric uptake. Furthermore, sequestering carbon by the organisms living in polar seas is probably the largest natural negative feedback against climate change. 

The climate impacts on biodiversity and ecosystem functioning in both the Arctic and Antarctic serve as a bellwether for the consequences of global warming, including the persistence of biodiversity on Earth.  

Prof Clark said: “Sequencing technologies have massively changed our abilities to decipher how organisms work. However the uptake in polar biology has been relatively low, especially when considering the tens of thousands of species that reside at the poles and are at threat in our warming world.  

“Understanding how lots of very strange organisms living in extreme cold can help answer globally questions and provide real benefits for society. Failure to act now will result in a substantial loss of knowledge regarding evolutionary adaptation to the cold.” 

Genomic screening not only offers the possibility of identifying populations under stress, but it can also be used for the monitoring of invasive species, thereby facilitating early interventions.  

Prof Mock said: “With the cold regions of our planet diminishing, there is a real imperative to obtain full genome sequences for diverse organisms inhabiting polar ecosystems, from the deep oceans to the permafrost on land, for both the Arctic and Antarctic. This will enable the wider application of omics technologies to polar species, which will revolutionise our understanding of evolution in the cold and adaptive responses to a warming world.” 

‘Multi-omics for studying and understanding polar life’, is published on 20 November 2023 in Nature Communications. 

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JOURNAL

Nature Communications

METHOD OF RESEARCH

Commentary/editorial

ARTICLE TITLE

Multi-omics for studying and understanding polar life

ARTICLE PUBLICATION DATE

20-Nov-2023

 

Over a third of Americans worry about getting the flu, RSV, or COVID-19

RSV knowledge has improved but great uncertainty remains, survey finds

Reports and Proceedings

ANNENBERG PUBLIC POLICY CENTER OF THE UNIVERSITY OF PENNSYLVANIA

 

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OVER A THIRD OF U.S. ADULTS ARE WORRIED ABOUT GETTING COVID-19, THE FLU, OR RSV OVER THE NEXT THREE MONTHS. FROM THE ANNENBERG PUBLIC POLICY CENTER'S ANNENBERG SCIENCE AND PUBLIC HEALTH KNOWLEDGE SURVEYS IN JANUARY AND OCTOBER 2023.

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CREDIT: ANNENBERG PUBLIC POLICY CENTER OF THE UNIVERSITY OF PENNSYLVANIA

PHILADELPHIA – Over a third of American adults are worried that they or someone in their family will get the seasonal flu, Covid-19, or RSV (respiratory syncytial virus) in the next three months, according to a new health survey from the Annenberg Public Policy Center (APPC) of the University of Pennsylvania.

Those three viral illnesses made up the “tripledemic” of respiratory illnesses that overwhelmed some health care facilities last winter. Although RSV typically peaks later in the year, this month hospitals in parts of Texas are already seeing emergency rooms filled with children with RSV.

RSV is a common respiratory virus that often causes mild, cold-like symptoms but can be serious and require hospitalization among infants and older adults, according to the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC).

There’s no consensus among U.S. adults on which virus is more likely to cause severe illness: 22% say Covid-19, 13% say RSV, 7% say seasonal flu, and 41% say they are equally likely to cause severe illness. Sixteen percent are not sure.

The Annenberg Science and Public Health Knowledge (ASAPH) survey, which was conducted October 5-12, 2023, with a panel of over 1,500 U.S. adults, finds that Americans generally are more knowledgeable about RSV today than earlier this year. Over the spring and summer, health authorities approved new vaccines against RSV specifically for adults age 60 and older and for pregnant people as a way to protect their newborns.

Highlights

• RSV concern: 35% worry that they or someone in their family will get RSV in the next three months, up from 32% in January 2023. About two-thirds (65%) are not worried.
• Covid-19 concern: 35% are worried that they or someone in their family will get Covid-19 in the next three months, up from 21% in August 2023 but similar to last winter (36% in January 2023). About two-thirds (65%) are not worried.
• Flu concern: 39% are worried that they or someone in their family will contract the seasonal flu in the next three months, statistically unchanged from January 2023. Six in 10 people (61%) are not worried.
• Complications: Nearly 1 in 3 people (31%) say they personally know someone who believes they are suffering long-term health complications as a result of getting infected with Covid-19. One in 6 (17%) say they personally know someone who believes they are suffering long-term health complications as a result of getting infected with Covid-19.
• Fewer say they’ve had a flu shot: At the time the survey was fielded (Oct. 5-12, 2023), 21% said they had received the flu shot this season, compared with 26% in mid-October 2022 and 38% in the second week of November 2021.

“Because getting a flu shot yearly not only helps to protect us from serious infection but also predicts our acceptance of other CDC-recommended vaccines, the drop in reported flu vaccination we see reflected in our panel is worrisome,” said Kathleen Hall Jamieson, director of the Annenberg Public Policy Center and director of the survey.

APPC’s Annenberg Science and Public Health Knowledge survey

The survey data come from the 13th wave of a nationally representative panel of 1,559 U.S. adults, first empaneled in April 2021, conducted for the Annenberg Public Policy Center by SSRS, an independent market research company. This wave of the Annenberg Science and Public Health Knowledge (ASAPH) survey was fielded October 5-12, 2023, and has a margin of sampling error (MOE) of ± 3.4 percentage points at the 95% confidence level. All figures are rounded to the nearest whole number and may not add to 100%. Combined subcategories may not add to totals in the topline and text due to rounding.

The policy center has been tracking the American public’s knowledge, beliefs, and behaviors regarding vaccination, Covid-19, flu, RSV, and other consequential health issues through this survey panel over the past two-and-a-half years. In addition to Jamieson, APPC’s team on the survey includes research analyst Shawn Patterson Jr.; Patrick E. Jamieson, director of the Annenberg Health and Risk Communication Institute, and Ken Winneg, managing director of survey research.

A prior news release on this survey showed how public confidence in vaccines has declined and more people are accepting of misinformation about vaccines over the past couple of years.

Download the topline and the methods report.

RSV and vaccines

Knowledge about RSV is generally up, though not enthusiasm for the vaccine.

Two vaccines against RSV for adults 60 and older were approved in May by the Food and Drug Administration (FDA) and in June, the CDC recommended that such older adults “may receive a single dose of RSV vaccine” upon consultation with their health care provider.

In August, the FDA approved, and the CDC later recommended, an RSV vaccine for pregnant individuals to be given during weeks 32 to 36 of pregnancy to protect babies born during RSV season. (During the summer, the FDA and CDC also signed off on a monoclonal antibody injection – which is not a vaccine – to be administered to newborns to protect against RSV.)

The survey on RSV and the vaccines found a mixed reception for the RSV preventives:

• The vaccine for older adults: Over half of those surveyed (55%) say they would be likely to recommend that a friend or family member age 60 or older talk with their health care provider about whether to get the RSV vaccine, a statistically significant decline from 61% in August 2023.
• The vaccine during pregnancy: People are split on whether to recommend the RSV vaccine to a pregnant friend or family member. Told that the CDC recommended this new vaccine against RSV for pregnant individuals to protect their infants: 45% would not recommend it and 43% would. (The question was not previously asked in this form.)
• The monoclonal antibody injection for infants: 42% say they would be likely to recommend the monoclonal antibody injection for an infant and 35% would not, no significant change since August.

What do people know about RSV?

Knowledge about RSV and the vaccines has grown slightly since summer on some survey items. On most of these questions, more people are unsure than knowledgeable:

• Does an RSV vaccine for older adults exist? More people know there is an FDA-approved vaccine against RSV for older adults (42%, up from 23% in August and 13% in June), though over half of those surveyed (53%) are not sure.
• RSV symptoms: There’s been growth in the number of people who know that RSV is more likely to produce mild, cold-like symptoms (23%, up from 18% in June 2023) than serious difficulties in breathing – but even more incorrectly choose the latter (38%) and another 38% are not sure.
• The virus’s staying power: More know that RSV can survive for many hours on hard surfaces such as tables or crib rails (26%, up from 17% in June 2023) than those who say it cannot (7%) – but two-thirds of those surveyed (67%) are not sure.
• Repeat illness: More know that once a person contracts RSV it’s possible to get it again (48%, up from 38% in June 2023), though half (50%) are unsure.
• Pre-symptomatic spread: Nearly half (46%, unchanged from August 2023) know it is possible to spread RSV before showing symptoms, though half (51%) are unsure.
• When RSV season occurs: Nearly two-thirds (63%, up from 43% in June) know that fall and winter are the times of year when someone is most likely to contract RSV, though 21% are not sure.
• RSV’s prevalence among infants: Almost no one knows how common RSV is among infants. Asked how many children get RSV before the age of two: 14% say few, 31% say some, 10% say most, 4% (correctly) say virtually all and 42% are not sure. According to the CDC, nearly all children are infected before their second birthday.

In addition to the CDC sites linked above, for more information see the Q&As at FactCheck.org, a project of APPC, on the RSV vaccines for older adults and pregnant people.

Knowledge of the flu

As noted earlier, 21% of the U.S. adults surveyed say they received the seasonal flu shot as of Oct. 12, 2023, compared with 26% as of Oct. 18, 2022, and 38% as of Nov. 9, 2021. The survey response runs close to the CDC estimate that, as of Oct. 14, 2023, 22.2% of the adult population had received a flu shot.

But the survey also finds that the same proportion of people (50% likely, 50% unlikely) say they plan to get the flu shot this season as in October 2022. If that holds, it suggests that fewer people will be on track to be vaccinated against flu this year than last year. Total U.S. adult vaccination against the flu ran lower last season (46.9%) than in the prior, 2021-22 season (49.4%), though it is higher than it was a decade ago.

Most know (79%) the effectiveness of the flu shot can vary from year to year. Fewer people say the current flu shot is effective at reducing the risk of getting seasonal flu this year (65%, down from 73% in January 2023) and fewer say the current shot is effective at reducing the risk of getting a severe case of seasonal flu (71%, down from 77% in January). The CDC says the effectiveness of the shot varies each season, but vaccination generally reduces the risk of getting the flu by 40% to 60% when the circulating flu viruses are well-matched to those used to make the vaccines. The shot can keep you from getting sick with the flu, and has been shown to reduce the severity of illness in vaccinated people who get sick, the CDC says.

Knowledge of the flu. From the Annenberg Public Policy Center's Annenberg Science and Public Health Knowledge survey Oct. 5-12, 2023.

What U.S. adults know about RSV. From the Annenberg Public Policy Center's Annenberg Science and Public Health Knowledge surveys May-Oct 2023.

The survey found:

• The flu and pregnancy: A quarter of those surveyed (24%) know that a pregnant person who gets the flu is at higher risk of delivering the baby early, unchanged from June 2023. But 32% say this is false and 45% are not sure.
• Flu shot protection: Half (51%) know the flu shot protects both pregnant people and their babies from serious health problems during and after pregnancy. Nearly a third (30%) are not sure. This is unchanged from June.
• One visit, two shots: For the first time, the CDC said this fall that the flu shot and Covid-19 vaccine could be administered in the same visit to a health care provider. Two-thirds (66%) know a person can get a seasonal flu shot and the Covid-19 booster in one visit to a health care provider or pharmacy.
• Masks and the flu: Over 7 in 10 people (71%) know that wearing a high-quality, well-fitting mask helps limit the spread of flu viruses, down from 77% in January 2023. The number who consider that statement false is up, to 19% from 14% in January. Our prior survey release also found that 75% say they never or rarely wear a mask indoors when with people who are not from their household.
• No treatment for flu: Nearly a third (30%) incorrectly say there is no treatment for the flu, up from 23% in January 2023.
• Tamiflu: Most survey respondents (61%) correctly disagree with the statement that because Tamiflu is available to treat the seasonal flu, there’s no longer a need for people to get a flu shot. But the number who disagree is down from 65% in January 2023.
• Flu shot for older people: Less than 1 in 5 people (18%) know that individuals 65 and older should get an annual flu shot with a higher dosage than the one for younger people, while 30% say those 65+ should get the same dose as the one for younger people, 4% say they should get a lower dose than the one given to younger people, 7% say they should not get an annual flu shot and 42% are not sure.
• What effect does the shot have? Nearly half (48%) say the flu shot doesn’t stop you from getting the flu but makes it less severe; 22% say it keeps a vaccinated person who is exposed to the flu from getting sick with it; 7% say the shot has “no effect one way or the other” on whether an exposed person gets the flu; 4% say getting the shot increases the chances that a person who is exposed to the flu will get sick with it; and 20% are not sure.

Why get a flu shot?

When those who have received the flu shot were asked why they decided to get it this season, this is how they responded (more than one response is permitted):

• I get it every year (78% yes; 22% no, the same as October 2022)
• I want to protect myself against catching the flu (64% yes; 36% no, up from October 2022, when it was 47% yes; 53% no).
• I want to protect myself against Covid-19 (13% yes; 87% no, up from October 2022, when it was 3% yes; 97% no). The flu shot does not protect against Covid-19. The increase in the people who believe there is some interaction between the flu shot and Covid-19 can also be seen in a previously released finding: More people incorrectly think getting a flu shot increases your risk of getting Covid-19 (9% say this is true, up from 6% in January 2023). There is no evidence of this, as written up by FactCheck.org.
• It is recommended by the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (31% yes; 69% no, statistically unchanged from January 2023).

Getting the Covid-19 booster

More U.S. adults say they are likely to recommend the fall Covid-19 booster to older adults in their family (52%) than to babies-to-preteens (44%) or to get it themselves (40%).

• Covid-19 booster for adults: More people say they are unlikely to get the new fall Covid-19 booster (44%) than to get it (40%). (Asked of a half-sample.)
• Covid-19 booster for children: People are about evenly divided on how likely they are to have a child in their family get the booster this fall. If they had a child age 6 months to 12 years who is eligible for the booster, 44% say they are likely to have the child get the booster and 43% say they are unlikely to do so.
• Covid-19 booster for age 65+: Over half (52%) say that if someone in their family age 65 or older is eligible for the booster, they would recommend that that person take it, while 39% say they are unlikely to recommend it.

The Annenberg Public Policy Center was established in 1993 to educate the public and policy makers about communication’s role in advancing public understanding of political, science, and health issues at the local, state, and federal levels. Read about our science and health surveys.

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METHOD OF RESEARCH

Survey

 

Nations must go further than current Paris pledges or face global warming of 2.5-2.9°C  

Emissions Gap Report 2023: Broken Record – Temperatures hit new highs, yet world fails to cut emissions (again)

Reports and Proceedings

UNEP DIVISION OF PUBLIC COMMUNICATION AND INFORMATION

• Predicted 2030 emissions must fall by 28-42 per cent for pathway to 2°C and 1.5°C 
• Relentless mitigation and low-carbon transformations essential to narrow emissions gap 
• COP28 and Global Stocktake chance to build greater ambition for next round of climate pledges
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Nairobi, 20 November 2023 – As global temperatures and greenhouse gas emissions break records, the latest Emissions Gap Report from the UN Environment Programme (UNEP) finds that current pledges under the Paris Agreement put the world on track for a 2.5-2.9°C temperature rise above pre-industrial levels this century, pointing to the urgent need for increased climate action.  

Released ahead of the 2023 climate summit in Dubai, United Arab Emirates, the Emissions Gap Report 2023: Broken Record – Temperatures hit new highs, yet world fails to cut emissions (again), finds that global low-carbon transformations are needed to deliver cuts to predicted 2030 greenhouse gas emissions of 28 per cent for a 2°C pathway and 42 per cent for a 1.5°C pathway. 

“We know it is still possible to make the 1.5 degree limit a reality. It requires tearing out the poisoned root of the climate crisis: fossil fuels. And it demands a just, equitable renewables transition,” said Antònio Guterres, Secretary-General of the United Nations.  

Maintaining the possibility of achieving the Paris Agreement temperature goals hinges on significantly strengthening mitigation this decade to narrow the emissions gap. This will facilitate more ambitious targets for 2035 in the next round of Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs) and increase the chances of meeting net-zero pledges, which now cover around 80 per cent of global emissions.

“There is no person or economy left on the planet untouched by climate change, so we need to stop setting unwanted records on greenhouse gas emissions, global temperature highs and extreme weather,” said Inger Andersen, Executive Director of UNEP. “We must instead lift the needle out of the same old groove of insufficient ambition and not enough action, and start setting other records: on cutting emissions, on green and just transitions and on climate finance.” 

Broken records 

Until the beginning of October this year, 86 days were recorded with temperatures over 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels. September was the hottest recorded month ever, with global average temperatures 1.8°C above pre-industrial levels.  

The report finds that global greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions increased by 1.2 per cent from 2021 to 2022 to reach a new record of 57.4 Gigatonnes of Carbon Dioxide Equivalent (GtCO2e). GHG emissions across the G20 increased by 1.2 per cent in 2022. Emissions trends reflect global patterns of inequality. Because of these worrying trends and insufficient mitigation efforts, the world is on track for a temperature rise far beyond the agreed climate goals during this century. 

If mitigation efforts implied by current policies are continued at today’s levels, global warming will only be limited to 3°C above pre-industrial levels in this century. Fully implementing efforts implied by unconditional Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs) would put the world on track for limiting temperature rise to 2.9°C. Conditional NDCs fully implemented would lead to temperatures not exceeding 2.5°C above pre-industrial levels. All of these are with a 66 per cent chance. 

These temperature projections are slightly higher than in the 2022 Emissions Gap Report, as the 2023 report includes a larger number of models in the estimation of global warming. 

Current unconditional NDCs imply that additional emissions cuts of 14 GtCO2e are needed in 2030 over predicted levels for 2°C. Cuts of 22 GtCO2e are needed for 1.5°C. The implementation of conditional NDCs reduces both these estimates by 3 GtCO2e. 

In percentage terms, the world needs to cut 2030 emissions by 28 per cent to get on track to achieve the 2°C goal of the Paris Agreement, with a 66 per cent chance, and 42 per cent for the 1.5°C goal.  

If all conditional NDCs and long-term net-zero pledges were met, limiting the temperature rise to 2°C would be possible. However, net-zero pledges are not currently considered credible: none of the G20 countries are reducing emissions at a pace consistent with their net-zero targets. Even in the most optimistic scenario, the likelihood of limiting warming to 1.5°C is only 14 per cent. 

Some progress, but not enough 

Policy progress since the Paris Agreement was signed in 2015 has reduced the implementation gap, defined as the difference between projected emissions under current policies and full NDC implementation. GHG emissions in 2030 based on policies in place were projected to increase by 16 per cent at the time of the adoption of the Paris Agreement. Today, the projected increase is 3 per cent.  

As of 25 September, nine countries had submitted new or updated NDCs since COP27 in 2022, bringing the total number of updated NDCs to 149. If all new and updated unconditional NDCs are fully implemented, they would likely reduce GHG emissions by about 5.0 GtCO2e, about 9 per cent of 2022 emissions, annually by 2030, compared with the initial NDCs.  

However, unless emission levels in 2030 are brought down further, it will become impossible to establish least-cost pathways that limit global warming to 1.5°C with no or low overshoot during this century. Significantly ramping up implementation in this decade is the only way to avoid significant overshoot of 1.5°C.  

Low-carbon development transformations  

The report calls for all nations to deliver economy-wide, low-carbon development transformations, with a focus on the energy transition. The coal, oil and gas extracted over the lifetime of producing and planned mines and fields would emit over 3.5 times the carbon budget available to limit warming to 1.5°C, and almost the entire budget available for 2°C. 

Countries with greater capacity and responsibility for emissions – particularly high-income and high-emitting countries among the G20 – will need to take more ambitious and rapid action and provide financial and technical support to developing nations. As low- and middle-income countries already account for more than two thirds of global GHG emissions, meeting development needs with low-emissions growth is a priority in such nations – such as addressing energy demand patterns and prioritizing clean energy supply chains. 

The low-carbon development transition poses economic and institutional challenges for low- and middle-income countries, but also provides significant opportunities. Transitions in such countries can help to provide universal access to energy, lift millions out of poverty and expand strategic industries. The associated energy growth can be met efficiently and equitably with low-carbon energy as renewables get cheaper, ensuring green jobs and cleaner air. 

To achieve this, international financial assistance will have to be significantly scaled up, with new public and private sources of capital restructured through financing mechanisms – including debt financing, long-term concessional finance, guarantees and catalytic finance – that lower the costs of capital.  

COP28 and the Global Stocktake 

The first Global Stocktake (GST), concluding at COP28, will inform the next round of NDCs that countries should submit in 2025, with targets for 2035. Global ambition in the next round of NDCs must bring GHG emissions in 2035 to levels consistent with 2°C and 1.5°C pathways, while compensating for excess emissions until levels consistent with these pathways are achieved. 

The preparation of the next round of NDCs offers the opportunity for low- and middle-income countries to develop national roadmaps with ambitious development and climate policies, and targets for which finance and technology needs are clearly specified. COP28 should ensure that international support is provided for the development of such roadmaps. 

Carbon dioxide removal 

The report finds that delaying GHG emissions reductions will increase future reliance on carbon dioxide removal from the atmosphere. Carbon dioxide removal is already being deployed, mainly through afforestation, reforestation and forest management. Current direct removals through land-based methods are estimated at 2 GtCO2e annually. However, least-cost pathways assume considerable increases in both conventional and novel carbon dioxide removal – such as direct air carbon capture and storage. 

Achieving higher levels of carbon dioxide removal remains uncertain and associated with risks: around land competition, protection of tenure and rights and other factors. Upscaling of novel carbon dioxide removal methods are associated with different types of risks, including that the technical, economic and political requirements for large-scale deployment may not materialize in time.  

 

NOTES TO EDITORS

About the UN Environment Programme (UNEP) 

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