Does rainfall in southern China contribute to air pollution in the North China Plain?

Peer-Reviewed Publication

SCIENCE CHINA PRESS

 

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DISTRIBUTION OF TIME-AVERAGED PM2.5 CONCENTRATION (UNIT: ΜG M−3) OVER THE NORTH CHINA PLAIN (32°N−42°N, 110°E−120°E) AND RAINFALL (UNIT: MM DAY−1) IN SOUTHERN CHINA (22°N−32°N, 108°E−122°E) FROM 3 TO 12 FEBRUARY 2023. (A) OBSERVED PM2.5 CONCENTRATION AND GPCC RAINFALL; (B) TAP PM2.5 CONCENTRATION AND CPC RAINFALL. D01 AND D02 REPRESENT THE NORTH CHINA PLAIN AND SOUTHERN CHINA, RESPECTIVELY.

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CREDIT: ©SCIENCE CHINA PRESS

The North China Plain (NCP) is a region with some of the worst air pollution conditions on a global scale. Air pollution (known as haze) dominated by higher PM2.5 concentration, is well-documented for its adverse impacts on both human health and socioeconomic progress. Despite rigorous emissions reduction measures implemented by the Chinese government, the region continues to grapple with severe air pollution episodes virtually every year. For instance, in early February 2023, the average PM2.5 concentration over the North China Plain during this period ranked as the third-highest in the past nine years, accompanied by a yearly increase of 23.2% and a prolonged duration.

Dr. Xiadong An, affiliated with the College of Oceanic and Atmospheric Sciences at Ocean University of China, collaborated with Wen Chen, Professor of the School of Earth Science at Yunnan University, and Professors Chun Li and Lifang Sheng from Ocean University of China to conduct a comprehensive investigation into this substantial haze event. The team found that a strong quasi-barotropic anomalous anticyclone in the troposphere over the Pacific Northwest was responsible for the heavy haze. This anomalous anticyclone, previously labeled the Northeast Asian Anomalous Anticyclone (NAAA) by Dr. Xiadong An and co-authors in prior studies, exhibits a propensity to decrease surface wind speeds, elevate relative humidity, raise air temperatures within the lower troposphere, and lower the atmospheric boundary layer height. These meteorological changes create favorable conditions for the emergence of severe haze.

To their astonishment, southern China witnessed its second most substantial rainfall in nine years during the same period. Dr. Xiadong An and Professor Chun Li, in collaboration with Professor Wen Chen, embarked on a quest to ascertain the potential correlation between rainfall in southern China and the occurrence of severe haze over the North China Plain. Utilizing a state-of-the-art mesoscale Weather Research & Forecasting (WRF) model, the research team conducted numerical model experiments to scrutinize the influence of rainfall on the development of severe haze. The findings reveal that rainfall can trigger an anticyclonic anomaly over the Pacific Northwest through diabatic heating, consequently intensifying the magnitude of the anomalous anticyclone driven by background atmospheric circulations, with a substantial contribution of 27%. As a result, the North China Plain becomes more susceptible to severe haze. For example, the atmospheric boundary layer height is notably reduced in the WRF model, favoring air pollution over the North China Plain.

Furthermore, the rainfall also contributes to itself through convective feedback (with a contribution of 11.5%). Of course, the effect of atmospheric circulation on the rainfall is also undeniable. These findings suggest that southern rainfall-northern haze tends to occur in eastern China, with the former playing a contributory role in the latter. In the end, the researchers had to say that southern rainfall-north haze in eastern China is not an isolated incident, and it is probable to recur. Consequently, there is a pressing need to closely monitor the synchronized dynamics of rainfall and polluted weather.

This research offers a fresh perspective on understanding the impact of rainfall in southern China on haze over the North China Plain. Given the profound implications of air pollution on human health, any effort to investigate its underlying causes is laudable. While this study has shed light on the physical mechanisms linking rainfall in southern China to the development of severe haze over the North China Plain, it is still highly desirable to investigate it on a longer time-scale and on a wider spatial scale in the future.

See the article:

An X, Chen W, Li C, Cheng L, Zhang W, Hai S, Hu P. 2023. Influence of rainfall-induced diabatic heating on southern rainfall-northern haze over eastern China in early February 2023. Science China Earth Sciences, 66(11): 2579–2593, https://doi.org/10.1007/s11430-023-1181-3

Atmospheric circulation and planetary boundary layer height anomalies related to rainfall in southern China 

Difference map of the 200-hPa geopotential height (unit: m) between the control and sensitive (turn off latent heating) experiments based on WRF model during 4‒12 February 2023. The time series is the difference in the atmospheric boundary layer height (blue line; unit: m) between control and sensitive in the North China Plain (32−42°N, 110−120°E) indicated by the blue box.

CREDIT

©Science China Press

JOURNAL

Science China Earth Sciences

DOI

10.1007/s11430-023-1181-3 

 

Discovery of structural regularity hidden in silica glass

Peer-Reviewed Publication

TOHOKU UNIVERSITY

 

IMAGE: 

DISCOVERY OF STRUCTURAL REGULARITY HIDDEN IN SILICA GLASS. 

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CREDIT: MOTOKI SHIGA

Glass - whether used to insulate our homes or as the screens in our computers and smartphones - is a fundamental material. Yet, despite its long usage throughout human history, the disordered structure of its atomic configuration still baffles scientists, making understanding and controlling its structural nature challenging. It also makes it difficult to design efficient functional materials made from glass.

To uncover more about the structural regularity hidden in glassy materials, a research group has focused on ring shapes in the chemically bonded networks of glass. The group, which included Professor Motoki Shiga from Tohoku University's Unprecedented-scale Data Analytics Center, created new ways in which to quantify the rings' three-dimensional structure and structural symmetries: "roundness" and "roughness."

Using these indicators enabled the group to determine the exact number of representative ring shapes in crystalline and glassy silica (SiO2), finding a mixture of rings unique to glass and ones that resembled the rings in the crystals.

Additionally, the researchers developed a technique to measure the spatial atomic densities around rings by determining the direction of each ring.

They revealed that there is anisotropy around the ring, i.e., that the regulation of the atomic configuration is not uniform in all directions, and that the structural ordering related to the ring-originated anisotropy is consistent with experimental evidence, like the diffraction data of SiO2. It was also revealed that there were specific areas where the atomic arrangement followed some degree of order or regularity, even though it appeared to be a discorded and chaotic arrangement of atoms in glassy silica.

"The structural unit and structural order beyond the chemical bond had long been assumed through experimental observations but its identification has eluded scientists until now," says Shiga. "Furthermore, our successful analysis contributes to understanding phase-transitions, such as vitrification and crystallization of materials, and provides the mathematical descriptions necessary for controlling material structures and material properties."

Looking ahead, Shiga and his colleagues will use these techniques to come up with procedures for exploring glass materials, procedures that are based on data-driven approaches like machine learning and AI.

Their findings were published open access in the journal Communication Materials on November 3, 2023.

Ring shape indicators: (a) Computation procedure, (b) Examples of indicators on Silica (SiO2), (c) Distribution of shape indicators in silica glass and nine crystals.

Spatial atomic densities around rings in silica crystal (left) and glass (right). Blue and red regions show large density regions of silicon and oxygen atoms, respectively.

CREDIT

Motoki Shiga et al.

JOURNAL

Communications Materials

DOI

10.1038/s43246-023-00416-w 

ARTICLE TITLE

Ring-originated anisotropy of local structural ordering in amorphous and crystalline silicon dioxide\

Curators & cavers: How a tip from a citizen scientist led to deep discoveries in Utah’s caves

New research from NHMU uses caves to establish benchmarks for recent climate impacts on mammals

Peer-Reviewed Publication

UNIVERSITY OF UTAH

Scientists from the Natural History Museum of Utah have taken a deep dive into the not-so-distant past thanks to a friendly tip from Utah’s caving community. In a paper published this week by the Journal of Mammalogy, five scientists from the Natural History Museum of Utah (NHMU) and colleagues from Utah’s caving community have published the first research from their collaborative field work effort deep in Utah’s caves. 

The journal’s feature article reveals why caves make such compelling research archives; what was uncovered in Boomerang Cave in northern Utah; why skeletal remains provide new access to hard-to-get data from the recent past; and offers a new zoological baseline for mammalian changes in an alpine community.  

“To understand the impacts of climate on alpine ecosystems, we record current mammal species—mostly through trapping. But that method doesn’t tell us anything about the mammalian diversity in the recent past,” said Kaedan O’Brien, lead author and anthropology PhD candidate at the University of Utah. “So not a lot of study has been done on past alpine ecosystems because they are harder to get to, and when you do there is a slim chance of finding older skeletal remains intact.”

In NHMU Chief Curator and paleoecologist Dr. Tyler Faith’s words, “We want to know what animals were there in the 1800s, but that’s nearly impossible in the absence of historical records. How do we document the recent past without a time machine?” An out-of-the-blue email from local caver and study co-author Eric Richards offered an unexpected method of time travel: repelling hundreds of feet down into Utah’s caves to find what may have fallen in—and when.

In early 2019, Richards emailed NHMU Curator of Paleontology Dr. Randy Irmis to ask if he or the museum had any interest in the animal bones that he’d been finding on Utah cave adventures, and he sent photographs. Irmis replied right away, including colleague Dr. Tyler Faith and O’Brien, a PhD student in Faith’s lab. The group met, hit it off, and after a couple of trial outings for equipment training, Faith and Irmis were lowering themselves into caves to collect bones of by-gone animals.

“To be clear, this project would have never happened without the cavers reaching out to us, and investing time, and training with us. Eric and his wife Fumiko literally ‘showed us the ropes.’” said Faith. “I hope people realize that research isn’t just done by scientists who work at the museum, it can be public collaboration—in this case with trained experts (do not try this at home).”

After Faith obtained a research permit from the U.S. Forest Service in September 2019, Richards took the team to Boomerang Cave in the Bear River Range where they collected specimens for lab analysis at the museum. O’Brien managed the lion’s share of that work, upon which the paper is based. 

“Identifying skeletal remains is painstaking work, because you just go bone by bone, sorting by size and element, and then comparing them with regional museum voucher specimens,” said O’Brien. But the result is exciting. 

Using radiocarbon dating, fossils found in Boomerang Cave were shown to span the past 3,000 years, with the bulk from the last 1000 years or so. Comparison of these fossils to museum records and present-day mammals collected by co-authors and NHMU zoologists, Dr. Eric Rickart and Katrina Derieg, showed that the cave provided a faithful reflection of mammal diversity in the area. Perhaps most exciting is that the fossils also revealed the presence of species unknown to the region, like Merriam’s shrew. The full list of fossils is in the current Journal of Mammalogy, along with more on why this research matters.

“Our work highlights the value of collecting skeletal remains from caves as a convenient and accurate method for understanding the mammal communities” said Irmis. “Caves help us create comprehensive and long-term records and better understand how animals have changed in the recent past.”

Faith, Irmis, and O’Brien credit the ongoing success of this research to the curiosity and generosity of Utah’s caving community. It’s another example of citizen science advancing research and developing long-term relationships between NHMU and the public. To learn more about citizen science opportunities with NHMU, please visit nhmu.utah.edu/citizen-science.

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About the Natural History Museum of Utah  

The Natural History Museum of Utah is one of the leading scientific research and cultural institutions in the country. Established in 1963, the museum’s 10 permanent exhibitions are anchored by its state-of-the-art collections and research facilities containing almost 2 million objects. These collections are used in studies on geological, biological, and cultural diversity, and the history of living systems and human cultures within the Utah region. The museum hosts approximately 300,000 general visitors a year and provides one of the most spectacular private event settings in the Salt Lake City area. NHMU also broadens the reach of its mission through a variety of science-based outreach programs to communities and schools throughout Utah, reaching every school district in the state every other year.

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JOURNAL

Journal of Mammalogy

DOI

10.1093/jmammal/gyad093 

METHOD OF RESEARCH

Experimental study

SUBJECT OF RESEARCH

Not applicable

ARTICLE TITLE

The utility of alpine cave fossil assemblages for zoological census: an example from northern Utah, United States

ARTICLE PUBLICATION DATE

21-Nov-2023

 

Coastal river deltas threatened by more than climate change

Peer-Reviewed Publication

LUND UNIVERSITY

 

Worldwide, coastal river deltas are home to more than half a billion people, supporting fisheries, agriculture, cities, and fertile ecosystems. In a unique study covering 49 deltas globally, researchers from Lund University and Utrecht University have identified the most critical risks to deltas in the future. The research shows that deltas face multiple risks, and that population growth and poor environmental governance might pose bigger threats than climate change to the sustainability of Asian and African deltas, in particular.

“We can clearly show that many risks are not linked to climate. While climate change is a global problem, other important risk factors like land subsidence, population density and ineffective governance are local problems. Risks to deltas will only increase over time, so now is the time for governments to take action”, says Murray Scown, associate senior lecturer, Lund University Centre for Sustainability Studies, and lead author.

Collapse of delta environments could have huge consequences for global sustainable development. In the worst-case scenario, deltas could be lost to the sea; other consequences are flooding, salinization of water, which affects agriculture, coastal squeeze, and loss of ecosystems.

The study, published in Global Environmental Change, looked at five different IPCC scenarios for global development in 49 deltas all over the world, including famous deltas such as the Nile, Mekong, and Mississippi, but also more understudied deltas such as the Volta, Zambezi and Irrawaddy deltas. The research identifies possible risks to deltas stretching 80 years into the future. The researchers based their analysis on 13 well-known factors affecting risk in deltas and drew upon unique models to identify which of these risks are most likely to endanger different deltas in the future. Risk factors include increasing population density, urban development, irrigated agriculture, changes to river discharge, land subsidence and relative sea-level rise, limited economic capacity, poor government effectiveness, and low adaptation readiness.

Population density, land subsidence and ineffective governance are high risk factors

The analysis shows that there are some risks that are more critical to deltas than others – in all of the five future scenarios. These include land subsidence and relative sea-level rise, population density, ineffective governance, economic capacity, and crop land use. 

For some deltas, physical risks are especially pronounced. Land subsidence is, for example, the highest risk factor for the Mekong delta in Vietnam. Extreme sea levels are among the most concerning risk factors for deltas in China, on the Korean peninsula, and in the Colorado (Mexico) and Rhine (Netherlands) deltas. 

In the Nile (Egypt), Niger (Nigeria), and the Ganges (Bangladesh) deltas, it is increasing population density that is of most concern under certain scenarios. For other deltas, it is the lack of economic capacity and government effectiveness to manage risks, for example in the Irrawaddy (Myanmar) and Congo (Angola and Democratic Republic of the Congo) deltas. 

“Analysed all together, we can see that the Asian mega-deltas are at greatest risk, with potentially devastating consequences for millions of people, and for the environment. They are under pressure from population growth, intense agricultural land use, relative sea-level rise, and lagging adaptation readiness”, says Murray Scown.

Local and global approaches and a mixture of hard and soft adaptation can mitigate risks 

“Instead of sitting back, governments need to think long-term, and put plans in place to reduce or mitigate risks. In the Mekong delta, for example, the Vietnamese government are making strong efforts to restrict future groundwater extraction in the delta to reduce land subsidence and salinization”, says Philip Minderhoud, assistant professor at Wageningen University and Research.

The researchers highlight that a mixture of hard (“grey”) and soft (“green”) adaptation approaches will be required to manage and mitigate delta risks. They include both hard infrastructures, like sea walls to stop the sea inundating the delta, and soft approaches using nature-based solutions. One example is the Dutch experience of creating room for the river in the Rhine delta, by lowering floodplains, relocating levees, and using spaces that are allowed to flood for grazing. Initiatives to build up delta surfaces by allowing rivers to flood and deposit sediment on the delta to maintain elevation above sea level are also promising, notes Frances Dunn, assistant professor at Utrecht University.

“By looking at the deltas together, like we have in this study, we want to highlight what can happen on a global scale if we do not address delta risk both on a local and global level. The study can also complement studies on individual deltas, and identify efforts needed connected to less studied deltas such as the Saõ Francisco or Volta delta”, says Maria Santos, professor at the University of Zurich.

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JOURNAL

Global Environmental Change

DOI

10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2023.102736 

ARTICLE TITLE

Global change scenarios in coastal river deltas and their sustainable development implications

Predicting the fate of shallow coastal ecosystems for the year 2100

Projections vary for seagrass meadows, macroalgal beds, tidal marshes, mangroves, and coral habitats

Peer-Reviewed Publication

PLOS

 

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EXAMPLES OF SHALLOW-WATER ECOSYSTEMS

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CREDIT: MOKI ET AL., 2023, PLOS CLIMATE, CC-BY 4.0 (HTTPS://CREATIVECOMMONS.ORG/LICENSES/BY/4.0/)

A new study of shallow-water ecosystems estimates that, by 2100, climate change and coastal land usage could result in significant shrinkage of coral habitats, tidal marshes, and mangroves, while macroalgal beds remain stable and seagrass meadows potentially expand. Hirotada Moki of the Port and Airport Research Institute, Japan, and colleagues present their findings in the open-access journal PLOS Climate.

Shallow-water ecosystems absorb a significant amount of carbon dioxide and are therefore expected to help mitigate climate change. Meanwhile, these ecosystems themselves will likely be affected by climate change, including warming seawater. However, it has been unclear exactly how climate change might impact the future size of shallow-water ecosystems.

To help clarify their fate, Moki and colleagues estimated future changes in the total area occupied by the five shallow-water ecosystems thought to be most important: seagrass meadows, macroalgal beds, tidal marshes, mangroves, and coral habitats.

They combined data on the ecosystems’ current sizes and distributions with topographic data, and applied a global climate model to calculate potential changes through 2100. They considered two standardized hypothetical scenarios, one representing the lowest predictions for future greenhouse gas emissions (RCP2.6) and the other the highest (RCP8.5).

The analysis estimates that, by 2100, global coral habitat could shrink by up to 74 percent. Meanwhile, seagrass meadows could expand by up to 11 percent because of a predicted increase in the depth to which photosynthesis-powering sunlight can penetrate these habitats. For macroalgal beds, that depth is not predicted to vary greatly, resulting in an estimated maintenance of present area through 2100.

The estimates also suggest that tidal marshes and mangroves will retain their present size because shrinkage caused by rising sea level will be offset by expansion to new areas. However, after accounting for coastal development and land use, the analysis estimates that tidal marshes may shrink by 91.9 percent and mangroves by 74.3 percent.

 

On the basis of these findings, the researchers suggest employing an optimal mix of shallow-water ecosystems and man-made infrastructure to counteract coral-habitat shrinkage. Meanwhile, appropriate coastal management could harness the climate change-mitigating effects of the other four ecosystems.

The authors add: “Although global coral habitat considerably can considerably shrink (as much as 75%), other shallow water ecosystems (macroalgal beds, mangroves, tidal marshes and seagrass meadows) can remain or increase in the future.If appropriate coastal management (e.g., to consider the effect of hard infrastructure for landward shift of ecosystems) is achieved, the four shallow water ecosystems can help mitigate the climate change influences.”

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In your coverage please use this URL to provide access to the freely available article in PLOS Climate: https://journals.plos.org/climate/article?id=10.1371/journal.pclm.0000298

Citation: Moki H, Yanagita K, Kondo K, Kuwae T (2023) Projections of changes in the global distribution of shallow water ecosystems through 2100 due to climate change. PLOS Clim 2(11): e0000298. https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pclm.0000298

Author Countries: Japan

Funding: This work was partially supported by the Environmental Research and Technology Development Fund (S-14: JPMEERF15S11408 to TK) of the Environmental Restoration and Conservation Agency of Japan, and Grants-in-Aid for Scientific Research (KAKENHI) from the Japan Society for the Promotion of Science (nos. 18H04156 and 26630251 to TK).

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JOURNAL

PLOS Climate

DOI

10.1371/journal.pclm.0000298 

METHOD OF RESEARCH

Computational simulation/modeling

SUBJECT OF RESEARCH

Not applicable

ARTICLE PUBLICATION DATE

22-Nov-2023

COI STATEMENT

Competing Interests: Authors Keigo Yanagita and Keiichi Kondo were employed by the company Science and Technology Co., LTD. All other authors declare no competing interests.

 

Study provides fresh insights into antibiotic resistance, fitness landscapes

Peer-Reviewed Publication

SANTA FE INSTITUTE

E. coli bacteria may be far more capable at evolving antibiotic resistance than scientists previously thought, according to a new study published in Science on November 24.

Led by SFI External Professor Andreas Wagner, the researchers experimentally mapped more than 260,000 possible mutations of an E. coli protein that is essential for the bacteria’s survival when exposed to the antibiotic trimethoprim.

Over the course of thousands of highly realistic digital simulations, the researchers then found that 75% of all possible evolutionary paths of the E. coli protein ultimately endowed the bacteria with such a high level of antibiotic resistance that a clinician would no longer give the antibiotic trimethoprim to a patient.

“In essence, this study suggests that bacteria like E. coli may be more adept at evolving resistance to antibiotics than we initially thought, and this has broader implications for understanding how various systems in evolutionary biology, chemistry, and other fields adapt and evolve,” says Wagner, an evolutionary biologist at the University of Zurich in Switzerland.

Besides uncovering new and potentially worrisome findings about antibiotic resistance, the researchers’ work also casts doubt on a longstanding theory about fitness landscapes. These genetic maps represent how well an organism — or a part of it, like a protein — adapts to its environment.

On fitness landscapes, different points on the landscape represent different genotypes of an organism, and the height of these points represents how well each genotype is adapted to its environment. In evolutionary biology terms, the goal is to find the highest peak, which indicates the fittest genotype.

Prevailing theory regarding fitness landscapes predicts that in highly rugged landscapes, or those with multiple peaks of fitness, most evolving populations will become trapped at lower peaks and never reach the pinnacle of evolutionary adaptation.

However, testing this theory has been exceedingly difficult until now due to the lack of experimental data on sufficiently large fitness landscapes.

To address this challenge, Wagner and colleagues used CRISPR gene editing technology to create one of the most combinatorially complete fitness landscapes to date for the E. coli dihydrofolate reductase (DHFR) protein.

What they found was surprising. The landscape had many peaks, but most were of low fitness, making them less interesting for adaptation. However, even in this rugged landscape, about 75% of the populations they simulated reached high fitness peaks, which would grant E. coli high antibiotic resistance.

The real-world implications are significant. If rugged landscapes like this are common in biological systems, it could mean that many adaptive processes, such as antibiotic resistance, may be more accessible than previously thought.

The result could ultimately lead to a re-evaluation of theoretical models in various fields and prompt further research into how real-world landscapes impact evolutionary processes.

“This has profound implications not only in biology but beyond, prompting us to reevaluate our understanding of landscape evolution across various fields,” Wagner says. “We need to shift from abstract theoretical models to data-informed, realistic landscape models.”

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JOURNAL

Science

DOI

10.1126/science.adh3860 

ARTICLE TITLE

A rugged yet easily navigable fitness landscape

ARTICLE PUBLICATION DATE

24-Nov-2023

 

Premature death of autistic people in the UK investigated for the first time

Peer reviewed | Observational study | People

Peer-Reviewed Publication

UNIVERSITY COLLEGE LONDON

A new study led by UCL researchers confirms that autistic people experience a reduced life expectancy, however the number of years of life lost may not be as high as previously claimed.

The research, published in The Lancet Regional Health – Europe, is the first to estimate the life expectancy and years of life lost by autistic people living in the UK.

The team used anonymised data from GP practices throughout the UK to study people who received an autism diagnosis between 1989 to 2019. They studied 17,130 people diagnosed as autistic without a learning disability and 6,450 participants diagnosed as autistic with a learning disability. They then compared these groups with people of the same age and sex, who had not been diagnosed as autistic.

The researchers found that autistic men without a learning disability had an average estimated life expectancy of 74.6 years, and autistic women without a learning disability, around 76.8 years. 

Meanwhile, the estimated life expectancy for people diagnosed with autism and learning disability was around 71.7 years for men and 69.6 years for women.

These figures compare to the usual life expectancy of around 80 years for men and around 83 years for women living in the UK.

The findings provide the first evidence that diagnosed autistic people were more likely to die prematurely in the UK across the time period studied, indicating an urgent need to address inequalities that disproportionately affect autistic people.

However, the new estimates also suggest that the widely reported statistic that autistic people live 16 years less on average* is likely to be incorrect.

Lead investigator of the study, Professor Josh Stott (UCL Psychology & Language Sciences), said: “Autism itself does not, to our knowledge, directly reduce life expectancy, but we know that autistic people experience health inequalities, meaning that they often don’t get the support and help that they need when they need it. We wanted to explore whether this impacted the average life expectancy for diagnosed autistic people living in the UK.

“Our findings show that some autistic people were dying prematurely, which impacted the overall life expectancy. However, we know that when they have the right support, many autistic people live long, healthy and happy lives. Although our findings show important inequalities, we were concerned about frightening statistics that are often quoted, and it is important to provide more realistic information.

“We do need to find out why some autistic people are dying prematurely so that we can identify ways to prevent this from happening.”

Autistic people have differences in their social communication and social interaction, alongside restricted and repetitive patterns of behaviours, interests and activities.

Many autistic people require adjustments to be made to ensure equal access to healthcare, employment, and local authority support.

Some autistic people also have learning disabilities, and can find it hard to explain to others when they are experiencing pain or discomfort. This can mean that health problems go undetected.

There are numerous reports of social exclusion, difficulties accessing support, and inappropriate care being given, as described in Baroness Hollins’ report that was published earlier in November**.

Joint-lead author, Dr Elizabeth O’Nions (UCL Psychology & Language Sciences), said: “Autistic people are rightly and increasingly pushing for recognition that autism reflects natural and expected variation in how brains function, and that society must make space for all.

“This means that services must be inclusive and accommodating of those who have particular support needs by adapting how they operate.

“We believe that the findings of this study reflect inequalities that disproportionately affect autistic people.”

The researchers have previously published a study, which found that the true number of autistic people in England may be more than double the number often cited in national health policy documents***.

Consequently, they acknowledge that the new research may over-estimate the reduction in life expectancy experienced by autistic people on average.

Professor Stott said: “Very few autistic adults have been diagnosed, meaning that this study only focuses on a fraction of the total autistic population.

“Those who are diagnosed may be those with greater support needs and more co-occurring health conditions than autistic people on average.

“We think this is particularly the case for women diagnosed with autism and learning disability - the larger reduction in life expectancy may reflect a disproportionate underdiagnosis of autism and/or learning disability in women.

“It’s likely that not all autistic people experience a reduced life expectancy – indeed, some autistic people may be better at sticking to healthy routines than average, potentially increasing their life expectancy.”

Dr Judith Brown, Head of Evidence and Research at the National Autistic Society, said: “This is very important research led by University College London and we are grateful to have been able to contribute.

“While the results of this study suggest a smaller difference than previously understood between the life expectancy of autistic and non-autistic people, they are still significant. These findings demonstrate that autistic people continue to face unacceptable inequalities through a lack of understanding, barriers to vital services and inadequate care, which lead to poorer mental and physical health outcomes.

“Without investment, improved understanding, inclusion and the correct level of support and care, autistic people will continue to see reduced life expectancy, with the most at-risk group in this study being autistic women with learning disabilities. This research should be a wake-up call for Government, the NHS, healthcare professionals and society as a whole that we must tackle the health inequality autistic people face.”

The research was funded by the Dunhill Medical Trust, Medical Research Council, National Institute for Health and Care Research, and the Royal College of Psychiatrists.

*https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/birthsdeathsandmarriages/lifeexpectancies/qmis/nationallifetablesqmi

**https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/independent-care-education-and-treatment-reviews-final-report-2023/baroness-hollins-final-report-my-heart-breaks-solitary-confinement-in-hospital-has-no-therapeutic-benefit-for-people-with-a-learning-disability-an

*** https://www.ucl.ac.uk/news/2023/jun/number-autistic-people-england-may-be-twice-high-previously-thought

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JOURNAL

The Lancet Regional Health - Europe

DOI

10.1016/j.lanepe.2023.100776 

METHOD OF RESEARCH

Observational study

SUBJECT OF RESEARCH

People

ARTICLE TITLE

Estimating life expectancy and years of life lost for autistic people in the UK: a matched cohort study

ARTICLE PUBLICATION DATE

23-Nov-2023

 

Drones enabled the use of defibrillators before ambulance arrival

Peer-Reviewed Publication

KAROLINSKA INSTITUTET

 

IMAGE: 

ANDREAS CLAESSON

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CREDIT: EUROPEAN SOCIETY OF CARDIOLOGY

Researchers at Karolinska Institutet have evaluated the possibility of alerting drones equipped with automated external defibrillators (AED) to patients with suspected cardiac arrest. In more than half of the cases, the drones were ahead of the ambulance by an average of three minutes. In cases where the patient was in cardiac arrest, the drone-delivered defibrillator was used in a majority of cases. The results have been published in the journal The Lancet Digital Health.   

"The use of an AED is the single most important factor in saving lives. We have been deploying drones equipped with AED since the summer of 2020 and show in this follow-up study that drones can arrive at the scene before an ambulance by several minutes. This lead time has meant that the AED could be used by people at the scene in several cases," says Andreas Claesson, Associate Professor at the Center for Cardiac Arrest Research at the Department of Clinical Research and Education, Södersjukhuset, Karolinska Institutet, and principal investigator of the study.   

Every year, around 6000 people in Sweden suffer a sudden cardiac arrest, but only a tenth of those affected survive. Although an early shock with a AED can dramatically increase the chance of survival and there are tens of thousands of AED in the community, they are not available in people's homes where most cardiac arrests occur.   

To shorten the time to defibrillation with an AED, Karolinska Institutet, together with Region Västra Götaland, SOS Alarm and the drone operator Everdrone, has since 2020 tested the possibility of sending out a drone with a AED at the same time as an ambulance is alerted. The project covered an area of approximately 200,000 people in western Sweden. An initial study conducted in the summer of 2020 in Gothenburg and Kungälv showed that the idea was feasible and safe.    

“This more comprehensive and follow-up study now shows in a larger material that the methodology works throughout the year, summer and winter, in daylight and darkness. Drones can be alerted, arrive, deliver AED, and people on site have time to use the AED before the ambulance arrives," says Sofia Schierbeck, PhD student at the same department and first author of the study.   

In the study, drones delivered a AED in 55 cases of suspected cardiac arrest. In 37 of these cases, the delivery took place before an ambulance, corresponding to 67 percent, with a median lead of 3 minutes and 14 seconds. In the 18 cases of actual cardiac arrest, the caller managed to use the AED in six cases, representing 33 percent. A shock was recommended by the device in two cases and in one case the patient survived.   

“Our study now shows once and for all that it is possible to deliver AED with drones and that this can be done several minutes before the arrival of the ambulance in connection with acute cardiac arrest," says Andreas Claesson. “This time saving meant that the healthcare emergency center could instruct the person who called the ambulance to retrieve and use the AED in several cases before the ambulance arrived."  

The research was mainly funded by the Swedish Heart-Lung Foundation.  

Publication: "Drone delivery of automated external defibrillators compared with ambulance arrival in real-life suspected out-of-hospital cardiac arrests: a prospective observational study in Sweden", Sofia Schierbeck, A Nord, L Svensson, M Ringh, P Nordberg, J Hollenberg, P Lundgren, F Folke, M Jonsson, S Forsberg, A Claesson, The Lancet digital health, online November 23, 2023, doi: 10.1016/S2589-7500(23)00161-9 

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JOURNAL

The Lancet Digital Health

DOI

10.1016/S2589-7500(23)00161-9 

ARTICLE TITLE

Drone delivery of automated external defibrillators compared with ambulance arrival in real-life suspected out-of-hospital cardiac arrests: a prospective observational study in Sweden

ARTICLE PUBLICATION DATE

22-Nov-2023