It’s possible that I shall make an ass of myself. But in that case one can always get out of it with a little dialectic. I have, of course, so worded my proposition as to be right either way (K.Marx, Letter to F.Engels on the Indian Mutiny)
Monday, December 04, 2023
Fury as COP28 head and UAE energy tsar Sultan Al Jaber says there is 'no science' to suggest phasing out fossil fuels will limit global warming to 1.5C
- and doing so would 'take us back to caves'
Comments came in recently emerged video of a question and answer session
There is 'no science' behind phasing out fossil fuels and the policy will take the world 'back to caves', according to the head of COP28.
The president of the Dubai climate change summit, Sultan al Jaber, made the comments during an online question and answer session at a She Changes Climate event.
As well as running Cop28, Al Jaber is also the chief executive of the United Arab Emirates' state oil company, Adnoc.
His appointment as head of the Cop28 was branded 'completely ridiculous' by eco-warrior Greta Thunberg.
Sultan al Jaber made the comments during an online question and answer session at a She Changes Climate event
It is believed that cutting out fossil fossils will stop the world's temperatures rising by 1.5C (Stock photo)
Al Jaber has allegedly used the climate summit to bag more oil and gas deals for his national petro-firm Adnoc
In the recently emerged video, obtained by The Guardian, the sultan was responding to questions from Mary Robinson, the chair of the Elders group and a former UN special envoy for climate change.
Ms Robinson said: 'We're in an absolute crisis that is hurting women and children more than anyone... and it's because we have not yet committed to phasing out fossil fuel.
'That is the one decision that Cop28 can take and in many ways, because you're head of Adnoc, you could actually take it with more credibility.'
Al Jaber replied: 'I accepted to come to this meeting to have a sober and mature conversation. Critics say Sultan Al Jaber shouldn't head both a UN climate summit and a massive oil firm More than 70,000 officials, campaigners, and experts are expected to attend COP28 in Dubai
'I'm not in any way signing up to any discussion that is alarmist.
'There is no science out there, or no scenario out there, that says that the phase-out of fossil fuel is what's going to achieve 1.5C.'
He added: 'Please help me, show me the roadmap for a phase-out of fossil fuel that will allow for sustainable socioeconomic development, unless you want to take the world back into caves.'
Video of the question and answer session took place on November 21 but it only emerged on Sunday.
More than 100 countries already support a phase-out of fossil fuels.
It is believed that cutting out fossil fossils will stop the world's temperatures rising by 1.5C.
The sultan's appointment as head of the Cop28 was branded 'completely ridiculous' by eco-warrior Greta Thunberg There have also been accusations that he plans to hash out new oil and gas deals on the sidelines of Cop28 (Stock photo)
The video emerged days after UN secretary-general Antonio Guterres called on the world to cut emissions to 'save' the planet.
Mr Guterres told the conference: 'The science is clear: The 1.5C limit is only possible if we ultimately stop burning all fossil fuels.
'Not reduce, not abate. Phase out, with a clear timeframe.'
Climate leaders have since reacted with fury over the sultan's controversial remarks.
Chief executive of Climate Analytics Bill Hare said the comments were 'verging on climate denial'.
Meanwhile, Mohamed Adow director of Power Shift Africa said: 'The recent comments from the COP28 president show how entrenched he is in fossil fuel fantasy and is clearly determined that this COP doesn't do anything to harm the interests of the oil and gas industry.'
When the United Arab Emirates announced in January that Sultan Al Jaber would lead this year's COP28 climate talks, the news was met with high praise and harsh criticism in equal measure.
For some, Al Jaber - who earned his PhD in business and economics from Coventry University - was a fantastic choice.
In 2006, he was put in charge of Masdar, the UAE's renewable energy vehicle, and set off on a global fact-finding mission to assess obstacles and opportunities.
The UAE has since invested heavily in its nuclear and solar sector, building a massive state-of-the-art nuclear power plant, and Masdar has made shrewd investments in technologies in over 40 countries - moves which have earned Jaber a reputation for getting results.
But for others, there's one incontrovertible problem.
Because for all his work on renewable energy, 'Dr Sultan' also happens to be the CEO of the Abu Dhabi National Oil Company - a giant producer of fossil fuels which plans to up its output to 5 million barrels of oil per day by 2027.
And Amnesty International has accused him of being responsible for instituting a stringent media censorship programme when he served as chairman of the National Media Council (NMC).
The backlash following the announcement earlier this year was significant, with some campaigners comparing the decision to 'appointing the CEO of a cigarette company to oversee a conference on cancer cures'.
Teresa Anderson, the global lead on climate justice at ActionAid, made a similar comparison, likening the appointment to 'putting the fox in charge of the henhouse'.
There have also been accusations that he plans to hash out new oil and gas deals on the sidelines of Cop28.
They are the latest claims to cast doubt on whether the talks will boost efforts to cut emissions of planet-heating gases, or are more akin to a public relations exercise for the Gulf petro-monarchy.
The Cop28 is the United Nations Climate Change Conference or Conference of the Parties of the UNFCCC.
This is the 28th conference and it is being held from November 30 until December 12 at Epo City, Dubai.
Cop28 is to serve as a formal meeting to negotiate and agree on action about how to tackle climate change.
Do you find it hard to reconcile the Sultan Al Jaber the climate champion with Sultan Al Jaber the oil chief? So does he, if an unscripted moment reported by the Guardian is anything to go on.
In a live event with former UN special envoy Mary Robinson in November, Al Jaber momentarily forgot his PR-approved lines and reverted to industry talking points.
“There is no science out there, or no scenario out there, that says that the phase-out of fossil fuel is what’s going to achieve 1.5C,” he said.
He dismissed Robinson’s call for a phase-out as “alarmist” and said it would “take the world back into caves”.
Leading scientists Jean-Pascal van Ypersele and Michael Mann wrote Al Jaber an open letter in response.
Speaking for the climate system, “the most difficult party… which has only red lines and no flexibility,” they said, “humanity needs to phase out fossil fuels by 2050”.
Carbon capture and storage can only mitigate “a very small fraction” of fossil fuel emissions, the letter said.
That last point is critical, as the oil and gas sector cites scenarios that show some residual fossil fuel use with CCS to justify production on a much larger scale.
Laurence Tubiana, one of the architects of the Paris Agreement, unpacks the CCS myth together with Emmanuel Guerin in an article for Climate Home News.
“People in the oil and gas industry know there is zero probability of [a] high-CCS scenario coming true,” they write. “The reality is they are just fooling us one more time, to buy time we can’t afford to waste in dealing with the climate crisis.”
Al Jaber’s slip of the tongue shows why precision matters in negotiations. Phase down can mean something very different to phase out, and “unabated” fossil fuels need further defining.
In a Cop first, health ministers took over plenary discussions on Sunday. Over 120 countries have signed a health declaration coordinated by the Cop28 presidency.
The declaration, and most ministerial statements, focused on strengthening healthcare systems as a means of climate adaptation.
It does not mention fossil fuels, or how burning coal, oil and gas releases harmful air pollutants besides greenhouse gases.
Sweden was one country to join the dots. “A decision here at Cop28 to phase out fossil fuels will contribute to [health] outcomes. The health of people and the planet cannot be separated,” said Mattias Frumerie, Swedish head of delegation.
Diarmid Campbell-Lendrum, head of climate and health at the World Health Organization, took the same view in a press conference.
“Talking about action on climate change without talking about fossil fuels is like talking about lung cancer without mentioning tobacco,” he said.
The ministerial plenary is an “important and delayed step”, but health discussions need to start mentioning fossil fuels, said Dr Arvind Kumar, founder of the Lung Care Foundation. Otherwise “the problem will not get solved”.
“Little cosmetic changes here and there are not going to make much of a difference,” he said.
In brief
Bad excuse? – Brazilian president Lula da Silva said in a meeting with NGOs that he is joining OPEC to “convince oil producing countries that they need to prepare for the end of fossil fuels”. Colombia’s president Gustavo Petro argued oil producers already know they have to move past oil.
Big polluters – Electricity generation in China and India, and oil and gas production in the US caused the biggest emissions rises since 2015, analysis published by Climate Trace shows. The figures are based on a database of 352 million emissions sources. Since the signing of the Paris Agreement emissions grew 8.6%.
Slow entrance – Crowds have eased at Cop28 since world leaders left town, yet long queues at the entrance still held up negotiations, Earth News Bulletin reports. More than 100,000 delegates are registered for Cop28, according to UN Climate Change.
At UN climate talks, fossil fuel interests have hundreds of employees on hand
People walk through the COP28 U.N. Climate Summit as the sun sets, Dec. 2, 2023, in Dubai, United Arab Emirates. (AP Photo/Rafiq Maqbool, File)Photos
BY MARY KATHERINE WILDEMAN AND MICHAEL PHILLIS December 3, 2023
At least 1,300 employees of organizations representing fossil fuel interests registered to attend this year’s United Nations climate talks in Dubai, more than three times the number found in an Associated Press analysis of last year’s talks, as new rules took effect requiring attendees to disclose their employment.
Aside from the new disclosure rules, the figure may have been boosted by a surge in attendance as Earth staggered through a year of record heat and devastating extreme weather attributed to climate change — conference registrations are nearly double that of last year’s talks. The United Nations body responsible for running the conference also released the details of far more attendees than in past years, including people not considered part of official state delegations.
The hundreds of fossil fuel-connected people make up just a tiny share of the 90,000 people who registered to attend the climate summit known as COP28. But environmentalists have repeatedly questioned their presence at an event where meaningful negotiations have to take aim at the heart of their businesses. ADVERTISEMENT
Demonstrators display signs reading “end fossil fuels” at the COP28 U.N. Climate Summit, Saturday, Dec. 2, 2023, in Dubai, United Arab Emirates.
(AP Photo/Joshua A. Bickel)
Bob Deans, director of strategic engagement for the U.S.-based Natural Resources Defense Council, said his group is hoping this year’s talks are the point where oil and gas “might begin to shift from being the biggest part of the climate problem to finally being part of the fix.”
“The industry needs to turn away from a business model that relies on destroying the planet,” said Deans, whose own group registered nearly two dozen people to attend. “That business model needs to change. Dubai must be the starting point.”
The companies represented by the 1,300-plus employees make up a big part of global emissions — which is also why they should have a place at the conference, they said.
COP28 President Sultan al-Jaber fielded criticism in the months leading up his role presiding over COP28 because of his other job — heading up the United Arab Emirates’ national oil company. Al-Jaber alluded to the question about the proper role for fossil fuel companies in his opening remarks.
“Let history reflect the fact that this is the Presidency that made a bold choice to proactively engage with oil and gas companies,” al-Jaber said. He went on to praise many of those companies for commitments to reduce emissions, but added: “I must say, it is not enough, and I know that they can do more.”
On Saturday, al-Jaber announced that 50 oil companies representing almost half of global production had pledged to reach near-zero methane emissions and end routine flaring by 2030. Experts and environmentalists called it significant and meaningful, but still not enough.
COP28 comes as the planet faces a mounting imperative to reduce greenhouse gas emissions. Global warming reached 1.25 degrees Celsius in October compared to pre-industrial levels, according to the European Space Agency’s Copernicus Climate Change Service. And the UN warned in a pivotal September report “the window of opportunity to secure a livable and sustainable future for all is rapidly closing.”
The Chevron Richmond Refinery operates in Point Richmond, Calif., Oct. 24, 2023.
(AP Photo/Eric Risberg) ADVERTISEMENT
Fossil fuel companies have long had a hand in the talks, the first of which was in 1995. Research by the advocacy group Kick Big Polluters Out Coalition shows four of the “big five” oil and gas companies — Shell, Chevron, TotalEnergies and BP — have sent representatives to the annual climate talks nearly every year.
The four companies each said in statements they attend COP in order to advance green or low-carbon technologies and work toward their net-zero commitments. Low-carbon can mean such things as biofuels, hydrogen development and carbon capture and storage. All four have pledged to reach carbon neutrality by 2050.
The AP arrived at its tally for COP28 by analyzing the United Nations list of likely attendees to review details they offered upon registration, including the company they represented. Those details were checked against lists of operators and owners of coal mines, oil fields and natural gas plants, as well as manufacturers of carbon-intensive materials like steel and cement. It also included trade associations that represent those interests.
TotalEnergies registered to send a dozen people to COP28, the UN data shows. Paul Naveau, the company’s head of media relations, said TotalEnergies would have six experts on climate, carbon markets and biodiversity at the talks, and its CEO Patrick Pouyanné is speaking at a side event.
“The subjects broached at these events lie at the heart of the company’s ambition; our experts attend to listen to the discussions and support collective action,” Naveau said. ADVERTISEMENT
Naveau said in response to AP questions that no TotalEnergies employees take part — or are even present for — the negotiations between countries.
Naveau highlighted the company’s plans for a third of its capital spending through 2028 to go toward “low carbon” energy. He also said the company is transparent about its attendees in Dubai “in order to kill the (false) idea that our company’s presence could be negative.” A sign for the COP28 U.N. Climate Summit is displayed, Nov. 29, 2023, in Dubai, United Arab Emirates. (AP Photo/Rafiq Maqbool)
The Kick Big Polluters Out analysis, which covers 20 years, showed that Shell has sent the most people to the talks overall and most consistently. The company averaged six people over the last 20 years, though that’s likely an undercount since the U.N. didn’t require attendees to list their “home organizations” before this year.
Shell’s international policy positions support phasing out coal, expanding renewables, and treating natural gas as a “partner” to renewable sources of energy. Natural gas emits less carbon than most other fossil fuels, according to the International Energy Agency, but it still contributes to climate change. The IEA describes it as having “a limited role” in transitioning from coal to renewables.
The Kick Big Polluters Out research also identified the most frequent attendees.
Arthur Lee, a 30-year employee of Chevron, has been to every COP since 1999, he said on his LinkedIn page, and is registered to attend COP28. He was a contributor to the fourth IPCC assessment, the official UN climate report, as an expert on carbon capture and storage.
David Hone, Shell’s chief climate adviser, is in Dubai for at least his 17th appearance at the annual climate talks. Hone wrote in a blog post ahead of the talks that net-zero emissions goals “will require a major emphasis on the development of carbon removal practices and technologies.”
Neither Shell nor Chevon would make the two men available for interviews.
Fossil fuel companies are depending heavily on carbon capture to meet their net zero targets, even as some experts have expressed doubt about scaling it up sufficiently. At the moment, it’s preventing about 0.1% of the energy sector’s carbon emissions from reaching the atmosphere, according to the IEA.
Rachel Rose Jackson is director of climate research and international policy at Corporate Accountability, a group in the coalition that produced the Kick Big Polluters Out analysis, said carbon capture and storage are unproven technologies at the scale that would be required.
“It’s a massive diversion of resources, capacity and money that could be going to solutions that we know work, that are cost effective, that do reduce emissions and keep fossil fuels in the ground,” she said. “These so-called solutions are often dangerous distractions.” ___
Associated Press climate and environmental coverage receives support from several private foundations. See more about AP’s climate initiative here. The AP is solely responsible for all content.
Kerry: Coal power plants shouldn't be "permitted anywhere in the world"
U.S. climate envoy John Kerry at the UN Climate Change Conference COP28 in Dubai, United Arab Emirates, on Sunday. Photo: Mahmoud Khaled /COP28 via Getty Images
What he's saying: "The reality is the climate crisis and the health crisis are one and the same," Kerry said at the U.N. Climate Change Conference in Dubai, citing a study that found coal "doubles the number of deaths" compared to other sources of air-carried pollution.
"Now, we don't need that necessarily to tell us we ought to be transitioning out of coal," he added.
"There shouldn't be any more coal fired power plants permitted anywhere in the world. That's how you can do something for health. And the reality is that we're not doing it."
The big picture: Kerry has been outspoken in his concerns, given coal is a particularly carbon-intensive fuel and new plants are unlikely to be shut down for many years, Axios' Andrew Freedman notes.
The U.S. and China are the world's two largest emitters and Kerry raised during meetings with his Chinese counterpart, Xie Zhenhua, ahead of COP28 his concerns about Beijing being the largest coal consumer, approving new coal power plants at a rapid rate.
US joins in swearing off coal power to clean the climate
AP – The United States (US) committed to the idea of phasing out coal power plants, joining 56 other nations in kicking the coal habit that’s a huge factor in global warming.
US Special Envoy John Kerry announced that America was joining the Powering Past Coal Alliance, which means the Biden Administration commits to building no new coal plants and phasing out existing plants. No date was given for when the existing plants would have to go, but other Biden regulatory actions and international commitments already in the works had meant no coal by 2035.
“We will be working to accelerate unabated coal phase-out across the world, building stronger economies and more resilient communities,” Kerry said in a statement. “The first step is to stop making the problem worse: stop building new unabated coal power plants.”
Coal power plants have already been shutting down across the nation due to economics, and no new coal facilities were in the works, so “we were heading to retiring coal by the end of the decade anyway”, said climate analyst Alden Meyer of the European think-tank E3G. That’s because natural gas and renewable energy are cheaper, so it was market forces, he said.
As of October, just under 20 per cent of the US electricity is powered by coal, according to the US Department of Energy. The amount of coal burned in the US last year is less than half what it was in 2008.
Coal produces about 96 kilogrammes (kg) of heat-trapping carbon dioxide per million BTUs of energy produced, compared to natural gas which produces about 53kg and gasoline which is about 71kg.
COP28: There must be no room for greenwashing, says UN Secretary-General
04-12-2023 |
UN Secretary-General Antonio Guterres has warned that there must be no room for greenwashing.
UN Secretary-General Antonio Guterres has warned that there must be no room for greenwashing. At the ongoing COP28 Climate Summit in Dubai, the UN Chief called for early warnings for all initiative to provide protection from hazardous weather, water or climate events by the end of 2027 is an effective way to save lives and protect vulnerable communities.
The UN Secretary-General added that the fossil fuel industry is finally starting to wake up and the commitment on the elimination of methane by 2030 is a step in the right direction. The target of achieving net zero by 2050 fails to mention anything about eliminating emissions from fossil fuel consumption. Guterres called for clarity on the pathway to reaching net zero by 2050 which is absolutely essential to ensure integrity.
He further stressed that phasing out fossil fuels within a timeframe compatible with limiting global warming to 1.5 Celsius is needed. However, he mentioned that current actions are not enough to tackle the issue.
“To meet the 1.5-degree limit of the Paris Agreement, greenhouse gas emissions must fall 45 per cent by 2030, compared to 2010 levels. But under national plans that are currently known they are set to increase by 9 per cent.”
Advocating for early warnings, Guterres said that a delay in action results in more deadly and extreme weather conditions and destructions. Further, those in the front line face the wrath of climate crisis, especially the developing nations. In order to achieve the 2027 target, all major multilateral development banks, the global climate funds and the key financing mechanisms have coalesced around the Early Warnings for All initiative.
The UN chief urged all countries to continue to be bold and ambitious and to double the speed and scale of support in 2024.
Here’s why the UAE, the autocratic COP28 host, has to allow limited protests at the summit
THE ASSOCIATED PRESS
December 4, 2023
Alice McGown holds a sign reading "no more fossils" while dressed as a dugong at the COP28 U.N. Climate Summit, Sunday, Dec. 3, 2023, in Dubai, United Arab Emirates. (AP Photo/Peter Dejong)
DUBAI--Participants at the United Nations’ COP28 climate talks Sunday found themselves greeted by the rarest sights in the United Arab Emirates — public protests.
From the largest demonstration seen in the UAE since the start of the raging Israel-Hamas war to environmental issues, activists allowed into the UAE can protest under strict guidelines in this autocratic nation inside the summit.
Meanwhile, human rights researchers from organizations long banned by the country also have been let in, providing them some the opportunity for the first time in about a decade to offer criticism — though many acknowledge it may see them never allowed back in the country.
“One of our major issues with COP28 is the fact that the UAE government is using this to burnish its image internationally and the fact that limited protests are allowed ... is a good thing,” said Joey Shea, now on her first trip to the Emirates as a researcher focused on the country at Human Rights Watch. “But at the end of the day, it helps to create this very false image that the UAE does have respect for rights when in fact it does not.”
The UAE, a federation of seven sheikhdoms led by Abu Dhabi’s ruler, bans political parties and labor unions. All power rests in each emirate’s hereditary ruler. Broad laws tightly restrict speech and nearly all major local media are either state-owned or state-affiliated outlets.
Laws also criminalize the very few protests that take place by foreign laborers. The Emirates’ overall population of more than 9.2 million people is only 10% Emirati. The rest are expatriates, many of them low-paid laborers seeking to send money back home to their families.
Many avoid saying anything as they see their livelihoods at risk for speaking up as their visas and residencies remain tied to their employers. The UAE’s diplomatic ties to Israel, reached in 2020, also make protesting on behalf of the Palestinians that much more fraught.
However, the U.N. and the UAE agreed before COP28 that free expression would be allowed. Activists described a process of having to seek approvals with organizers for their demonstrations. U.N. rules at the summit have seen demonstrators avoid waving national flags or specifically calling out countries.
But Sunday afternoon, over 100 people gathered as part of a solidarity protests on behalf of the Palestinians, only a short distance from Israel’s pavilion at Dubai’s Expo City. The same number of onlookers and journalists watched as they chanted, read names of the dead and held their fists up to the sky. Some cried as they listened.
Israeli security personnel watched from a distance. That morning, they briefly had argued over another smaller protest with United Nations police on hand guarding the Blue Zone, an area overseen by the U.N. where the negotiations take place.
Criticism of Israel’s conduct in the war has peppered much of the summit from world leaders, as well as activists who can be seen through the site wearing the traditional checkered keffiyeh, or scarf, associated with the Palestinians. However, unlike some other COP summits, there haven’t been marches of tens of thousands of people outside the venue.
Babawale Obayanju, an activist with the Global Campaign to Demand Climate Justice from Benin City, Nigeria, taking part in Sunday’s protests, told the AP that it was important to highlight the killing of civilians in the Gaza Strip as “it’s time for the world to take action” on that and the environment.
“Every opportunity we have, every arena of this struggle is one that we must embrace,” Obayaju said. “And the COP is in that arena of struggle.”
The loosened rules for COP28 also appear to have extended to allowing in people the Emiratis otherwise may not have.
About a decade ago, as the Arab Spring protests wound down, the UAE cracked down on Islamists and dissidents in the country. It also began blocking organizations like Amnesty International and Human Rights Watch from having their staff visit the nation.
They included human rights expert James Lynch, at the time working for Amnesty. He was blocked from entering the country in 2015 to talk at a conference about migrant labor.
Now the co-director of an organization called FairSquare, Lynch said he sought and didn’t receive a visa to attend COP28. After Emirati officials told The Financial Times nothing blocked him from coming, he took a nervous flight to Dubai with a copy of the article in his possession in case he was detained again at immigration. He was not and spoke to The Associated Press from the summit.
“It’s obviously a good thing that the UAE is letting people in with it with a variety of voices and perspectives, including critical perspectives,” Lynch said. “But nevertheless, ... it’s a nervy and sort of tense event in many ways.”
Shea’s colleagues at Human Rights Watch hadn’t been in the UAE in nine years after one of their colleagues was similarly detained trying to fly into the country. However, she said she didn’t plan to work outside of the U.N.-administer Blue Zone for her safety and those speaking with her.
“From the moment that COP28 participants landed in Dubai, they were faced with thousands of security cameras, CCTV everywhere in public spaces, inside of buildings,” Shea said. “You were effectively tracked from the moment that you stepped down in this country, in addition to mass surveillance” through suspected cases of authorities hacking mobile phones.
For Alice McGown, a Los Angeles-based activist, the right to protest at COP meant dressing as a dugong, or seacow, holding a sign saying: “No More Fossils.” But while looking cartoonish, McGown offered serious criticism of the Abu Dhabi National Oil Co.’s plans to expand its offshore ultra-sour gas operations into a protected area home to the dugong.
“It’s a little risky,” she said, as gawking onlookers stopped to photograph her. “Civil society does not have much of a place to speak out against these actions.”
Demo at COP28 in Dubai calls for cease-fire in Gaza, in first UAE protest in support of Palestinians
Don’t be fooled:CCSis no solution to oil and gas emissions
The oil and gas industry wants you to believe it can capture its emissions and keep drilling as usual. That’s no way to avert climate chaos Al Wasl Dome at the Cop28 venue in Dubai, UAE
At the Cop28 climate conference taking place in Dubai, oil and gas producers are counting on carbon capture and storage (CCS) for a social license to keep drilling as usual. Don’t fall for it.
While it can be helpful at the margins, CCS cannot possibly deliver reductions in greenhouse gas emissions on the scale needed to avert climate disaster. This can only happen if the main sources of emissions – fossil fuels – are phased out.
CCS is expected to deliver less than a tenth of the cumulative carbon dioxide emission reductions, over the 2023-2050 period, needed to hold global warming to 1.5C.
In the International Energy Agency net zero emission (NZE) scenario, CCS captures approximately 1.5 billion tons (GT) of CO2 in 2030, and 6 GT by 2050. But very little of that is applied to emissions from fossil fuel production and combustion. It is primarily used to capture CO2 from sectors where emissions are harder and more expensive to reduce, such as cement production or chemicals.
Is the IEA NZE scenario the only way to achieve net-zero emission and limit the temperature increase to 1.5C? Certainly not. There are different scenarios out there, including those of the Energy Transition Commission and McKinsey. And scenarios coming out of models are not to be confused with reality. The fossil fuel industry claims it can achieve the same objectives as in the IEA NZE scenario, while producing more oil and gas, by relying more heavily on CCS. Is this true? 50% more expensive
Another IEA scenario, the stated policies scenario, gives the answer. Reaching net-zero carbon emissions in this way would require the capture of 32 GT of CO2 emissions by 2050, including 23 GT through direct air capture (DAC).
At this scale, DAC alone would require 26,000 TWh of electricity to operate, which is more than the total global electricity demand today. Reaching net-zero emissions in this way would be 50% more expensive (for an annual investment cost of $6.9 trillions) than in the IEA NZE scenario.
People in the oil and gas industry know there is zero probability of this high-CCS scenario coming true. They are not even seriously investing in it, but waiting for governments, through taxpayers, to pick up the bill. The reality is they are just fooling us one more time, to buy time we can’t afford to waste in dealing with the climate crisis.
For all these reasons, framing the objective of the energy and climate transitions in the Cop28 decision text as “phasing out unabated [i.e. without CCS] fossil fuel emissions”, without specifying the order of magnitude of CCS in the overall portfolio of zero-carbon energy solutions (approximately 10%), and its primary use (hard-to-abate sectors, outside the oil and gas industry), would be profoundly misleading. Focus on real solutions
It would also be a missed opportunity for Cop28 to send a clear signal of where investments should be going in the energy sector, to ensure climate safety as much as energy security and future profits of energy companies: energy efficiency and savings; the deployment of renewable energies and other zero-carbon energy solutions (green hydrogen, sustainable biofuels, synthetic fuels, etc.); the complete decarbonization of the power sector (electricity generation); and the electrification of energy demand.
Today, the oil and gas industry is not part of the energy transition: it represent only 1% of the total investment ($1.8 trillion in 2022) in clean energy solutions, globally. And it invests only about 2.5% of its own record-high profits into clean energy, as opposed to the further expansion of oil and gas.
What should be the ratio of investments between zero-carbon energy solutions and the maintenance of existing oil and gas facilities, to limit the temperature increase to 1.5C? 50/50 by 2030, says the IEA in its fossil fuels special report, before it shifts further in the direction of a complete phase out from fossil fuels.
These should be the real objectives of Cop28, in relation to the energy transition. Otherwise, we are just mixing up the signal and the noise, confusing what should be the priority (phasing-out fossil fuels, phasing-in zero-carbon energy solutions) and what is a small part of the strategy (CCS) for a successful energy transition.
'Inevitable' world will pass 1.5°C then try to claw it back
Scientists warn Cop28 summit that net zero will not be enough Scientists warn the planet will heat up by more than 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels, based on current policies. EPA
It is “fast becoming inevitable” that global warming will exceed the key target of 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels and leave the world trying to claw it back down, the Cop28 summit has been told.
Scientists say the world will have to reckon with 1.5°C-plus for “at least some decades”, in what is known as an overshoot.
It would then have to turn the heat back down, using trees and carbon capture to replace “net zero” with “net negative” – or else turn to some sci-fi geoengineering.
This has long been regarded as “Plan B” but is becoming Plan A because emissions have not been cut fast enough to stay on track, said Dr Oliver Geden, an author of the findings unveiled in the UAE.
Even if temperatures eventually fall back to 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels, some effects will be irreversible such as extinct species that “won’t come back”, he said.
“We know we’re likely going to cross it, and we should prepare for it. But we also should prepare the decision of what to do about it, and not just say that fight is lost,” Dr Geden told The National.
The Paris Agreement calls for global warming to be held to 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels but does not set a specific deadline, although scientists advising the UN have made calculations up to 2100.
Johan Rockstrom, director of the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, said there was a one in two chance of returning to 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels by the end of the century, according to the research presented to the UN's climate body.
Many countries are aiming for net zero emissions by 2050 but temperatures could keep rising anyway because carbon dioxide lingers in the atmosphere for hundreds of years.
That means the world needs to get more comfortable talking about carbon removal, said Dr Geden, a subject which campaigners have often viewed with suspicion because they fear it is used to kick emission cuts into the long grass.
“If you want to return warming to an earlier level like 1.5°C, then you would have to get net negative CO2 [carbon dioxide] emissions, or more removals than emissions,” he said.
The Cop28 summit in Dubai heard warnings the world will have to do better than net zero.
“Even [if] it would stabilise at 1.5°C, sea level rise would still be there for centuries, so even 1.5°C is not that kind of safe level where everything is fine. Species extinction – if they are gone, they won’t come back. You could see forested areas getting out of balance.
“Since it was always seen as a Plan B and ‘let’s not talk about it too much’, this is really an area where more research needs to be done.”
The 10 New Insights in Climate Science report says there are “multiple lines of evidence” suggesting it is no longer possible to stop the temperature juggernaut at 1.5°C without an overshoot.
It warns of a vicious cycle in which, for example, a long period above 1.5°C damages the Earth’s natural carbon sinks and means global warming only causes more global warming.
“Overshooting 1.5°C is fast becoming inevitable. Minimising the magnitude and duration of overshoot is essential,” the report says.
“No pathway remains that avoids exceeding 1.5°C global warming for at least some decades, except for truly radical transformations.”
Most carbon removal today involves trees, although more technical options are being developed in which carbon dioxide is sucked out of the atmosphere and buried underground or in the sea.
Such technology will take “a long time to become mature”, said Dr Geden, and is described in a UN report underpinning Cop28’s global stocktake as having a range of practical issues.
Then there is what he called the “real scary stuff”, such as radical proposals to divert sunlight into space, known as solar radiation modification.
For carbon removal to be given a chance instead, policies “must be put in place in the near term”, the findings say – with the stocktake regarded as a key chance to take action before the next one is due in 2028.
Green Zone at Cop28 opens to public - in pictures
Dwindling fish stocks hit incomes in Cambodia, prey to climate change
PHOTO: Unsplash
DECEMBER 03, 2023
AsiaOne has launched EarthOne, a new section dedicated to environmental issues — because we love the planet and we believe science. Find articles like this there.
KAMPONG PHLUK, Cambodia — Fisherman Siem Huat has seen fish stocks dwindle in recent years in Cambodia's majestic Tonle Sap Lake, and with them, his family's sole source of income.
Experts say extreme weather brought by climate change, ecological disruption from dam-building, wetland conversions, and overfishing threaten food supplies and livelihoods for the millions who depend on Southeast Asia's largest lake.
"Sometimes there is rainfall in the wrong months or it gets so hot I can't go out to fish," said the 45-year-old Siem Huat, as he navigated his boat through mangroves to pull in nets carrying disappointingly few fish.
The Mekong River typically swells in the rainy season as it converges with Cambodia's Tonle Sap River, sending an unusual reversed flow into the Tonle Sap Lake that fills up the latter and spawns bountiful fish stocks.
But in recent years, the reversal has been delayed or disrupted, so that those who rely on the lake to earn a living find themselves in a battle to survive.
"There are days when I struggle to earn enough to afford rice or cover the cost of gasoline to return home," said Sar Mom, a 43-year-old fish vendor, whose typical daily income has plunged in a year to just US$5 (S$6.70) from US$25.
Cambodian authorities are now scrambling to educate fishing communities on responsible farming practices, cutting water pollution and how to switch to fish farming or aquaculture.
Cambodia is one of a number of low-emitting, vulnerable countries that has called for developed countries to take more, and better concerted, action at the COP28 climate summit being held in Dubai.
Greenland’s Inuit falling through thin ice of climate change
By AFP December 3, 2023 An iceberg melting in Scoresby Sound, Greenland, where temperatures are rising four times faster than the global average - Copyright AFP John MACDOUGALL Elias HUUHTANEN
The thunder of icebergs crashing into the turquoise sea of eastern Greenland is the sound of one of the planet’s most important ecosystems teetering on the edge of collapse.
As the ice melts, the hunters in the village of Ittoqqortoormiit — home to one of the last Inuit hunting communities — worry where they will get water.
Greenland’s ice sheets may hold one 12th of the world’s fresh water — enough to raise the sea level up seven metres (23 feet) if they were to melt — but climate change is already threatening the village’s supply.
Cold winters, robust ice and snow are vital for both food and water for the Inuit of the Scoresby Sound, who live deeply intertwined with the natural world.
But temperatures in the Arctic are rising up to four times faster than the global average.
On a headland of barren tundra around 500 kilometres (310 miles) from the nearest settlement, Ittoqqortoormiit’s 350 people get their fresh water from a river fed by a glacier that is melting fast.
“In a few years it’s gone,” said Erling Rasmussen of the local utility company Nukissiorfiit.
“The glaciers are smaller and smaller,” he said after the warmest July ever recorded at Summit Camp atop Greenland’s ice sheet.
“In the future we may have to get drinking water from the ocean,” Rasmussen added.
With melting ice for water costly and unreliable, other isolated Greenland communities are already turning to desalination.
– Thinning ice and hungry bears –
The Scoresby Sound — the biggest fjord system on the planet — is free of ice only for a month a year, with the locals within it relying on the meat provided by the hunters to survive the long polar night.
Cargo ships only get to Ittoqqortoormiit, at the mouth of the fjords, once a year. The colossal drifting icebergs crowding the narrow passages are a challenge to even the most seasoned sailors.
“We need our own meat. We cannot only buy Danish frozen meat,” said Jorgen Juulut Danielsen, a teacher and the village’s former mayor.
But as rising temperatures weaken the ice, traditional seal hunting by stalking their breathing holes on the ice has become progressively more difficult and dangerous for the local hunters.
Peter Arqe-Hammeken almost lost his wife and two children when the ice gave way under their snowmobile when they were out hunting in January, when the temperature was 20 below zero Centigrade (-4 Fahrenheit).
His wife ruptured her biceps getting the oldest child, aged 12, from the water.
Less snow also makes it difficult for the dog sleds the hunters rely on.
And it is not only humans who are facing challenges. The weakening sea ice is also increasingly pushing hungry polar bears to search for food within the settlement, locals report.
“They come to land near the village, so people have to be careful,” Danielsen said.
– Polar cod in question –
Framed by the rust-coloured mountains of Rode Fjord, the breathtaking blue walls of glaciers that rise from the sea in the Inuit hunting grounds are vital to the ecosystem.
The extreme conditions mean the fjord is among the least studied places on the planet, with parts of it blanketed in icebergs.
But after five years of meticulous planning, the French scientific initiative Greenlandia is rushing to document this front line of climate change before it is too late.
“You hear about global warming, but here you see it,” expedition leader Vincent Hilaire told AFP on board their sailing boat, Kamak.
Caroline Bouchard, senior scientist at the Greenland Climate Research Centre in Nuuk, fears that the receding glaciers will make the Scoresby Sound “a less rich ecosystem”.
Glaciers that terminate in the sea trigger “upwelling” — pushing the nutrient-rich water from the bottom of the fjord upwards with their cold meltwater.
But as the glaciers melt, they recede inland and the ecosystem loses these nutrients for the plankton that feed the polar cod, which in turn feed the seal and bear that the Inuit of Ittoqqortoormiit rely on. – Catastrophic consequences –
On the deck of Kamak, Bouchard checked the contents of her nets, as the bright Arctic sunlight illuminated the myriad of sealife on her Petri dish.
Among the plankton and krill, the number of cod larvae in her samples has dropped from 53 last year to only eight this summer.
While Bouchard said thorough analysis is required to determine the reasons for the decline, the figures are unexpectedly low.
“If you suddenly crash the polar cod population, what’s going to happen with the ring seal, what’s going to happen with the polar bear?” she said.
The potential collapse of polar cod could have catastrophic consequences for the local population that relies on both for their food from hunting.
“It’s not just Ittoqqortoormiit that we lose. It’s a unique way of life,” Bouchard said.
– Red algae melting glaciers –
New research conducted on the Greenlandia expedition offers grim portents for the future of the glaciers. In the warming fjord, a reddish hue is spreading across the ice that has been dubbed “blood snow”.
It is from a snow algae only formally discovered in 2019, Sanguina nivaloides, which develops a red or orange pigment to save it from the sun. But the pigment also lowers the reflectivity of the snow and speeds up melting.
Once aware of it, even an inexperienced observer can see how the crimson veil blankets extensive sections of the snow in the fjord.
Researchers say it is responsible for 12 percent of the total annual surface melt of the Greenland ice sheet, a “colossal” 32 billion tons of ice.
With the algae seemingly spreading, scientists see the risk of a vicious circle — rising temperatures speeding glacier melt and promoting the growth of the algae, which further accelerates the melting. – ‘We need to wake up’ –
“We are facing a catastrophe,” said Eric Marechal, a director of research at the French National Centre for Scientific Research (CNRS).
To scientifically demonstrate a phenomenon on the scale of the algae, 30 years of data is needed, he said, a luxury the world might not have.
“The risk we have here is the disappearance of the complete ecosystem,” he said. “Can this process be stopped in time? I don’t think so.”
Approaching the towering glacier cascading down a steep valley in Vikingebugt, expedition leader Hilaire pointed his rifle to a trail left in the mud by a polar bear.
For Marechal, making the challenging trek into bear country is a risk worth taking to sample the red snow draping the glacier.
His team at CNRS and the Snow Research Centre of Meteo-France are rushing to collect field samples in Greenland and retrieve historical satellite data to gain a deeper understanding of the algae’s behaviour.
“We need to wake up and address this question seriously,” Marechal said. “What is happening in Greenland (is key to) the disruption of the global water cycle, and the major melting that is causing the oceans to rise.”
New Zealand shamed at global climate talks with 'Fossil' award
CANADA USED TO GET THIS AWARD WHEN HARPERS CONSERVATIVES RULED
Olivia Wannan Dec 04 2023
The Government’s decision “is a devastating u-turn that undermines years of iwi, community and non-governmental organisation struggle, and puts New Zealand and our Pacific neighbours at risk”, she said.
Energy experts have concluded the world has already identified sufficient coal, oil and gas to provide energy while transitioning to clean fuels. To limit global warming to between 1.5C and 2C, countries must rapidly decrease fossil fuel usage before 2030, climate and energy scientists warn.
WWF NZ chief executive Kayla Kingdon-Bebb said the new Government is catching international attention “for all the wrong reasons”.
Labour Party leader Chris Hipkins said the award was “an embarrassment”. New oil and gas was “terrible news for the planet”, he said.
In a statement, Watts said the Labour-led Government also received the accolade at previous talks. “We are focused on working at COP28 with our international partners to deliver on our climate goals and get our policy platform in place.”
In an earlier interview, Watts said gas is needed as a transition fuel to back up the electricity grid. It is preferable to importing and burning coal, he said – since the solid fuel emits more greenhouse gas when producing the same amount of energy.
World leaders from Vanuatu and Palau have criticised the call to once again issue permits to search for offshore oil and gas.
In 2018, the Labour-led Government banned this type of exploration. But it continued to issue permits allowing onshore prospecting in Taranaki.
National and ACT campaigned to repeal the offshore ban, as did NZ First – which unenthusiastically backed the policy as part of its coalition with Labour.
KEVIN STENT/STUFF
In 2018, the coalition Government placed a ban on oil and gas exploration within New Zealand waters.
Labour’s climate spokesperson Megan Woods said “backtracking on climate action” could reposition New Zealand on the world stage.
The new Government needed to outline how it would protect the country’s reputation, she added.
Climate and environmental activists said the Government deserved the unprestigious prize.
Oxfam’s Nick Henry hoped the citation might be a “wake up call”. Amanda Larsson of Greenpeace said “New Zealand risks becoming a Pacific pariah”.
During previous summits, New Zealand received Fossil of the Day awards under John Key’s leadership for failing to increase its ambition and under Jacinda Ardern for backing a plan to spend two years discussing a fund to cover the “loss and damage” that vulnerable communities were experiencing.
BEWARE AUSTERITY COMETH
Keir Starmer: Labour ‘won’t turn on spending taps’ if it wins election
Labour leader to warn that Britain is in worst economic state for over 50 years and spending will need to be constrained
Labour will not “turn on the spending taps” if it wins the next election, Keir Starmer will say on Monday, bolstering the view of some senior Labour MPs that he is preparing to sign up to austerity-style public sector cuts.
The Labour leader will use a speech on the economy to warn that Britain is in its worst economic state in more than half a century and lay the ground for what shadow ministers expect to be extremely tight spending constraints after the general election.
The speech marks the first time Starmer has spoken publicly about the long-term path of public sector spending since last month’s autumn statement, which put the UK on course for another round of sweeping public sector cuts after the election.
In a speech to the Resolution Foundation, he will say: “Anyone who expects an incoming Labour government to quickly turn on the spending taps is going to be disappointed … It’s already clear that the decisions the government are taking, not to mention their record over the past 13 years, will constrain what a future Labour government can do.”
He will add: “This parliament is on track to be the first in modern history where living standards in this country have actually contracted. Household income growth is down by 3.1% and Britain is worse off.
“This isn’t living standards rising too slowly or unequal concentrations of wealth and opportunity. This is Britain going backwards. This is worse than the 1970s, worse than the recessions of the 1980s and 1990s, and worse even than the great crash of 2008.”
Preparing for an election at some point next year, Starmer will make clear that times are much worse now than they were in 2010 when the Conservative and Lib Dem coalition government instigated their austerity measures: “Never before has a British government asked its people to pay so much, for so little.”
Rachel Reeves, the shadow chancellor, has previously said that Labour will not go into the next election promising unfunded departmental spending pledges or tax rises beyond those they have already set out. These two pledges have limited how much room the party has to promise to lift government spending in an effort to relieve the pressure on Britain’s stretched public services.
The constraints facing the next government became even more acute after last month’s autumn statement, when the chancellor, Jeremy Hunt, announced £20bn worth of tax cuts, paid for in part by future public spending cuts on a par with those carried out by David Cameron’s government.
Under projections set out by the Office for Budget Responsibility, unprotected departments will see their budgets fall by 4.1% every year over the next parliament. Torsten Bell, chief executive of the Resolution Foundation, called the projected spending cuts “implausibly large”.
Starmer and Reeves have not yet decided whether they will match the Tory spending plans for at least the first few years of a Labour government, as Tony Blair and Gordon Brown did going into the 1997 election.
Nevertheless, many shadow ministers expect that he and Reeves will choose to stick to the forecast spending limits, though they hope that any additional growth will be used to pay for public spending rather than tax cuts.
Some say they are prepared to accept the cuts to come, but that Labour must in turn stand by its pledge to spend more on capital projects under the £28bn green prosperity plan, which has already been watered down.
“We can do the departmental cuts as long as we can invest money in things like dilapidated schools, hospitals and roads,” said one.
Starmer will say on Monday that Labour will prioritise growth with a series of policies including planning reform, competitive business taxes and stronger labour protections.
“The defining purpose of the next Labour government, the mission that stands above all others, will be raising Britain’s productivity growth,” he will say. “[It is] a goal that for my Labour party is now an obsession. That’s a big change for us. Having wealth creation as our number one priority, that’s not always been the Labour party’s comfort zone.”
Some, however, warn that sticking to Tory spending plans will itself be a major drag on economic output. Bell said after the autumn statement that it was “hard to think of a more anti-growth policy” than the projected public-sector pay cuts.
A decision to match the Conservatives’ spending plans is also likely to create further friction between the Labour leadership and the party’s grassroots. Many MPs and members are already angry about Starmer’s refusal to call for a ceasefire in Gaza, and were further irritated by his praise for the former Tory prime minister Margaret Thatcher over the weekend.
The Labour leader picked Thatcher as one of three former prime ministers he wanted to emulate if he became prime minister, alongside his Labour predecessors Tony Blair and Clement Attlee. All three, he said, had a drive and sense of purpose that defined their premiership.
Starmer told BBC Radio 4’s Broadcasting House on Sunday: “Thatcher did have a plan for entrepreneurialism; [she] had a mission. It doesn’t mean I agree with what she did, but I don’t think anybody could suggest that she didn’t have a driving sense of purpose.”
In a piece for the Sunday Telegraph, he said: “Every moment of meaningful change in modern British politics begins with the realisation that politics must act in service of the British people, rather than dictating to them. Margaret Thatcher sought to drag Britain out of its stupor by setting loose our natural entrepreneurialism.”
Starmer admitted that part of the reason for his comments was to woo wavering Tory voters, as polls show that many people have still to make up their mind how they will vote at the next election.
Sunak Polling Worse Than Truss With Key UK Voters, Study Finds
Alex Wickham, Bloomberg News
Sunak looks at a fuel fusion energy capsule at the UK Global Investment Summit in London on Nov. 27. Photographer: Chris Ratcliffe/Bloomberg , Bloomberg
(Bloomberg) -- UK Prime Minister Rishi Sunak is doing worse than his short-lived predecessor Liz Truss among the voters that last put the Conservatives in power, as many flock to the right-wing Reform Party, a major study by a pollster has found.
Sunak has presided over a “year of decline” that’s caused an “implosion” in the Tory vote, putting the opposition Labour Party firmly on course for power, according to the deep-dive analysis of polls conducted in Britain in the last 18 months, carried out by JL Partners.
Just 59% of voters who backed the Conservatives under Boris Johnson at the 2019 election are sticking with the party under Sunak, the report found. That’s down from 74% in August 2022, and from 63% in the aftermath of Truss’s disastrous “mini-budget” in September 2022, which roiled markets and brought about the abrupt end of her premiership. That event had been seen as the polling nadir for the governing Tory party.
It’s the rise of Reform UK, a right-wing anti-immigration party founded with the support of former Brexit campaigner Nigel Farage, that’s most hurting the polling performance of the Conservatives under Sunak, JL Partners said.
While some 5% of 2019 Tory voters have switched to the centrist Liberal Democrat party, 15% are now backing Reform. That’s around 1.5 million people. Reform has overtaken the Lib Dems as the third party in the North of England, Midlands and Wales, the report found, with the latter party now polling worse than its 2019 result. Around 18% of 2019 Tory votes have gone to Labour.
Struggles
In a sign of the struggles Sunak’s government has faced in recent weeks, the Tories have lost a net 520,000 votes since the prime minister’s speech at the Conservative Party conference at the beginning of October, it also found.
The report will pile pressure on Sunak, who has failed to close the gap with Labour leader Keir Starmer, leading to reports of increasing frustration in Downing Street and among senior ministers in the Cabinet
Sunak is due to make a decision on a new migration policy after his plan to deport asylum seekers to Rwanda was ruled unlawful by the UK’s top court last month. That call — and how far Sunak is willing to push Britain’s commitments to international human rights pacts in order to enact a hardline migration policy — risks angering both centrist and right-wing lawmakers in his party.
MPs on the right are likely to seize on the polling as they make the case for a tougher approach on borders.
Read more: Sunak Faces Perilous Holiday as Gloom Grows Over Migration Plans
JL Partners analyzed data from nine polling firms covering July 2022 to November 2023, including their own, to plot the voting intention of 2019 Conservative voters. The study provides a deeper and more nuanced picture of public opinion ahead of the next general election than typical top-line voting intention surveys, which offer a snapshot of opinion at a moment in time, the pollster said. An election is due in UK by January 2025.
The only respite for Sunak in the data is that around half of voters who say they are undecided are expected to vote Conservative on election day, according to the firm’s modeling. A “shy Tory” effect could reduce Labour’s margin of victory, but was unlikely to save the Conservatives, the report concluded.
“Rishi Sunak can count on some undecided voters to narrow the Labour lead, and the British public is hardly elated by the prospect of a Labour government,” James Johnson, the founder of JL Partners, said. “That’s where the good news for the Tories stops: They are in dire straits.”
A recent significant polling study by JL Partners has outlined a surprising decline in the popularity of UK Prime Minister Rishi Sunak among Conservative voters. The downward shift is more notable when compared to the support his predecessor, Liz Truss, enjoyed during her tenure. This analysis comes during a period considered a ‘year of decline’ for the Conservative Party.
Shift in Conservative Voter’s Loyalty
The study indicates a substantial shift of Conservative voters towards the right-wing Reform Party. This gradual migration is seen as a direct consequence of Sunak’s dwindling popularity and is contributing to an erosion of the Conservatives’ voter base. The political landscape is being reshaped as the voter base’s loyalty wavers amid internal party dynamics and national issues.
Labour Party’s Ascendancy
As a result of this political turbulence, the Labour Party is steadily gaining momentum and is now seen as the expected frontrunner for the next election. This shift in political allegiance underlines the challenges Sunak faces in retaining the electorate that previously cemented the Conservatives’ position in power.
Significant Findings
The study analyzed polling data from the past 18 months in Britain, capturing the political shifts and sentiment among voters. With Sunak’s popularity reportedly hitting an all-time low among Tory members, the Conservatives are struggling to regain their foothold. Despite the PM’s attempts to revive the party’s fortunes, the Tories remain well behind Labour in the opinion polls.
In conclusion, the findings underscore the intricate dynamics of political loyalty and the challenges that leaders face in maintaining their popularity. As the UK’s political landscape continues to evolve, the voters’ shift in allegiance signals potential changes in the country’s future leadership.
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