B.C. Ferries' wage fight with workers deepens as angry letter sent

Story by David Carrigg 

BC Ferry Queen of Surrey prepares to dock at the Horseshoe Bay ferry terminal.© Provided by Vancouver Sun

The union representing B.C. Ferries’ workers has lodged a lengthy complaint to the B.C. Labour Relations Board, accusing the employer of a string of bad behaviour and asking for $2.1 million in damages.

The 14-page letter of complaint comes as the two sides are engaged in tense negotiations to increase wages for the union’s 4,700 workers.

According to the Dec. 14, letter, the employer “has undertaken a concerted campaign to undermine the union’s exclusive bargaining agency and lower its reputation among its members. The employer’s efforts have stoked fear and animosity among members which has directly led to discord between the union of members.”

The letter claims B.C. Ferries extended private accommodation deals (negotiated for a limited time during the COVID-19 pandemic) to remote workers without consulting the union. It then reversed the deal once the union complained — leading to anger from those workers towards the union.

It also states that the employer has wrongfully reached out twice to union members telling them that union leadership had rejected a seven per cent wage hike offer as part of mid-contract wage negotiations now underway.

The union also claims that during an online meeting on Nov. 28 related to the two notifications, B.C. Ferries executive director of labour relations Dean Dobrinsky told B.C. Ferries Union president Eric McNeely to “just shut the f— up.”


The letter states that just before the start of the 2020 COVID-19 pandemic, the union was preparing to negotiate a two-year collective agreement with proposed wage hikes of 10 per cent a year.

However, due to the onset of the pandemic, the union changed its position and, in November 2020, accepted a five-year contract with increases of zero, two and two per cent, with the last two years’ pay hikes to be determined through two wage re-openers.

The first wage re-opener was in August but no agreement could be reached. The two parties are now engaged in binding negotiations, with the next meeting set for February.

The letter states the employer has wrongfully notified union members that they have been offered a general seven per cent wage hike for one year and that union leadership has rejected that, leading to further discontent.

As punishment, the union is asking that B.C. Ferries pay $100,000 for bargaining directly with employees (related to the housing deal), $1 million in damages for defamation and $1 million for damaging the union’s relationship with members.


The B.C. NDP has puts its stamp on B.C. Ferries over the past 18 months, appointing NDP stalwart Joy MacPhail as chair of the board and former ICBC boss Nicolas Jimenez as CEO.

B.C. Ferries has not yet responded to a request for comment.

NDP MP Taylor Bachrach will be home for Christmas — he hopes.

On Sunday, the NDP transportation critic and MP for the riding of Skeena-Bulkley Valley, plans to leave the House of Commons and start a series of train rides that will begin in Toronto and end more than 4,500 kilometres west in his hometown of Smithers, B.C. — about 200 kilometres inland from B.C.'s north coast

That journey could be complicated by the fact that passenger trains in Canada are often delayed when they have to give right of way to cargo traffic travelling on the same tracks.

And that's exactly the point: Bachrach's journey is part of a quest to build support for a bill he introduced in Parliament this week.

The Rail Passenger Priority Act calls for the Canada Transportation Act to be amended so that any time a passenger and cargo train want to use the same rail line, the passenger train gets priority.

That would be a reversal of the usual situation now, where passenger trains like Via Rail are renting track time from freight companies, primarily CN Rail.

That relationship poses a problem in Bachrach's riding, where increased train traffic to and from the Port of Prince Rupert often leads to long delays for people trying to use Via Rail service that runs from Prince Rupert to Bachrach's hometown of Smithers and on to Prince George and Jasper.

"Right now people are avoiding the train because they can't get to where they need to go with any sense of consistency," Bachrach said.


Via Rail's Skeena train travels between Jasper, Alta., and Prince Rupert, B.C. It often faces delays due to freight traffic serving the Port of Prince Rupert. (The Canadian Press)© Provided by cbc.ca

Marc Brazeau, CEO of the Railway Association of Canada — which represents CN and CP — said any legislation that alters right of way on the rails would need to be balanced against the importance of efficient freight operations.

"Any passenger service proposal must demonstrate that freight capacity to handle current and future anticipated volumes can be preserved, which is essential to support Canada's economy," Brazeau said in an emailed statement to The Canadian Press in October after Via Rail chief executive Mario Péloquin called on the federal government to give passenger trains right of way on the tracks.

Both Bachrach and Péloquin pointed to U.S. regulations that give Amtrak passenger cars priority over freight as a model for the proposed legislation.

Bachrach says he is taking his December train trip in order to drum up support for his proposal and to better understand the challenges and needs of train commuters across Canada.

He spoke to CBC Daybreak North host Carolina de Ryk about the upcoming journey.

Well, partly because I need to get home for Christmas and, after about 100 flights this year, Air Canada and I could use a break from each other. But more importantly because it's a chance to experience the state of passenger rail in Canada.

I'm pretty familiar with the passenger train the Skeena in northwest B.C., but this is going to give me a chance to talk to passengers and communities right across the country about a vision for Canada catching up to the rest of the world and having a viable passenger train service, which we don't right now.

I think the biggest thing right now is that the passenger train has to make way for freight traffic and that has resulted in Via's inability to keep a consistent schedule.

Via used to make it from Toronto to Vancouver in three-and-a-half days, but because of this challenge sharing the tracks with CN and CP, it now takes four-and-a-half days to do the same trip.

We can't get more people riding the train if they don't know when the train is going to show up at the station.

As you know, since we lost Greyhound [bus service], people have very few passenger transportation options in northern B.C. and right across rural Canada.

Not everyone can afford the cost of flying across the country, and so we need to have a better balance between the need to ship goods, which is a very real need and connected to the health of our economy, and the need to transport passengers and provide people with safe, convenient, affordable and low carbon transportation options.

It might mean building new infrastructure, it might mean creating new systems to schedule trains so that the situation is really optimized.

But what's happening right now is that the passenger train is the poor cousin to freight traffic and people are sitting on the sidelines for hours and hours.

That's creating a situation where people don't want to take the train as basic transportation.

We have the potential as a country to have a much better passenger rail system.

When we look around the worl

McGill, Concordia can take Quebec to court over tuition hikes, French requirements, lawyers say

Story by Joe Bongiorno • 23h

Michael Norman Bergman is no stranger to fighting Quebec in court.

As the lawyer representing the Task Force on Linguistic Policy, an English-language advocacy organization, he has challenged Bill 96 — a law that restricts the use of English and other minority languages in the province.

Earlier this week, the Quebec government revised its plan to hike tuition fees for out-of-province students, bringing fees up by several thousand dollars.

But the revisions didn't end there. Citing what it calls a decline in French in Montreal, the government announced that 80 per cent of out-of-province students enrolled at a school will need to attain intermediate French proficiency by the time they graduate — or that school may lose provincial funding.

While McGill's principal, Deep Saini, called the province's actions a "targeted attack" on its English-language universities, Higher Education Minister Pascale Déry said the changes weren't an assault on anglophones.

As fingers continue to be pointed, lawyers like Bergman are saying Quebec's English-language universities may have a strong legal case against the government.

He's considering recommending the Task Force on Linguistic Policy include the new tuition hikes and French-language requirements as part of their lawsuit, whether or not the universities want to take legal action themselves.

"What's going on right now is that we're seeing a generalized, broadly based initiative by the government of Quebec to restrict and restrain use of English by every available means," said Bergman.

What the province is doing in respect to English universities, he added, goes against the section of the Canadian Charter of Rights and Freedoms that guarantees the ability of all Canadians to reside in any part of Canada they choose.



Michael Norman Bergman says Quebec is pursuing actions to restrict the use of English by whatever means necessary. (Submitted by Michael Bergman)© Provided by cbc.ca

"Here in our province, Canadian citizens are being targeted by special measures," he said, noting former Quebec leaders swore not to touch English-language universities and institutions, thereby offering them a degree of protection.

But he's not the only lawyer who thinks there's a solid case to be made before the courts.

Since Premier François Legault took power in 2018, civil rights lawyer Julius Grey has fought against Bill 96 as well as Bill 21 — legislation which some critics say targets religious minorities.

Most recently, he's turned his attention to Quebec's actions regarding its English-language universities.

"I think it could be challenged in court because discrimination on the basis of language is discrimination," Grey said. "You could find it justified either under Section 15 of the Canadian Charter or even more explicitly under Section 10 of the Quebec Charter.

"I definitely think it should go to court because the politicians have proved unwilling to stand up to this new Quebec nationalism."

Although not as complex as Bill 96 or BIll 21, Grey calls the tuition changes "particularly ridiculous," arguing they place undue limits on all Quebecers, regardless of their mother tongue.



Sylvia Martin-Laforge, director general of the Quebec Community Groups Network, says Quebec is attacking English institutions. (CBC)© Provided by cbc.ca
Damage already being done

According to Sylvia Martin-Laforge, director general of the Quebec Community Groups Network, the province's actions have left English-speaking Quebecers feeling "disenfranchised" and "frustrated."

"It's a bigger deal than tuition. It's an assault on the institutions of the English-speaking community," she said.

Martin-Laforge describes the government changes as legislating on the basis of "identity politics" and in a way that may be discriminatory, and the more she hears from Déry, the more "troubling" she finds the government's reasoning.

Martin-Laforge believes the provincial government is giving itself two black eyes — one by harming Montreal's reputation as a welcoming, inclusive university city, and the other by creating a potential impact on the economy.

Andrew Caddell, president of the Task Force on Linguistic Policy, would like to see McGill and Concordia seriously consider making their case before a judge.

"These are two very important institutions that contribute not only to the vitality of the anglophone community in Quebec and Montreal, but also to the academic standard of excellence in Canada and across the world," said Caddell.

"If our reputation becomes one of a small, parochial, narrow-minded city instead of a bright, bold, innovative, international city, we're going to lose a lot of people of talent."

Most voters still say Trudeau should resign — and expect an election in 2024

Story by David Baxter

GLOBAL NEWS

Prime Minister Justin Trudeau rises during question period in the House of Commons on Parliament Hill in Ottawa on Wednesday, Dec. 13, 2023.© THE CANADIAN PRESS/Sean Kilpatrick

Global News

Majority of Canadians feel Trudeau should resign in 2024: poll

View on Watch

A majority of Canadians again said in December that it’s time for Prime Minister Justin Trudeau to step aside from this role and as leader of the Liberal Party, but most don’t believe he will do it.

And over half of Canadians think there will be an election next year.

The new polling done by Ipsos exclusively for Global News found that 69 per cent of Canadians feel Trudeau should resign as Liberal leader and prime minister. The finding comes after earlier polling by Ipsos for Global News done between Nov. 14 and 17 suggested 72 per cent of Canadians felt the same, marking a three-point decrease in the sentiment but within the poll's margin of error.



Ipsos CEO Darrell Bricker said they followed up with respondents on why they think Trudeau should step aside. He said that while some just never liked the prime minister to begin with, things got more interesting when past Liberal voters shared their thoughts.

“When you start poking away at it among people who actually say they voted for him or supported him in the past, their view is one or two things. One is his time has come and gone. He's given a service and it's really Canada just needs a change,” Bricker said.

“And then there's another group among his supporters that say, not this time, because I don't think he can win and we need to do whatever we can to stop Pierre Poilievre.”

Video: 3 in 4 Canadians think Trudeau should step down now: poll

There is regional unity among the consensus that Trudeau should go, according to Bricker. While he says this has historically been the case in the Prairies and parts of B.C., the sentiment is seeping into areas traditionally more favourable to the Liberals.

“What we're seeing now is this has seeped into Ontario and Quebec and even in Atlantic Canada,” Bricker said.

“This time around it just seems like people are either tired or they don't think he's got what it takes in order to be able to defeat his opponents.”

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While almost seven in 10 Canadians think Trudeau should step down, 63 per cent see that as being unlikely according to the poll.

Trudeau has remained steadfast that he intends to lead the Liberals into the next election whenever he’s been asked about the topic.

Lori Turnbull at Dalhousie University says there’s likely not too much worry in the Liberal tent with the next election not scheduled until fall 2025 and the supply-and-confidence deal with the NDP still intact. However, if this trend endures, she says it will be harder to shift their electoral fortunes.

“We are in this world of wedge politics where it's very much about the person, it's very much about, 'You're on my team or you're not,'” Turnbull said.

Video: As 2023 parliamentary sitting ends, can PM Trudeau turn slumping poll numbers around?

“So, when the person's brand sours, it's harder for voters to pivot because if they were in the party because of the person, because of that brand, where do you go if you don't like that brand? It doesn't mean you're going to like somebody else's brand.”

Canadians appear to expect to go to the polls next year, with 59 per cent thinking an election is likely in 2024. Only 29 per cent don’t think this will be the case and the remaining 13 per cent said they don’t know if there will be a vote.

This Ipsos poll was conducted between December 8th to 11th, 2023, on behalf of Global News. For this survey, a sample of 1,000 Canadians aged 18+ was interviewed. Quotas and weighting were employed to ensure that the sample’s composition reflects that of the Canadian population according to census parameters. The precision of Ipsos online polls is measured using a credibility interval. In this case, the poll is accurate to within ± 3.8 percentage points, 19 times out of 20, had all Canadians aged 18+ been polled. The credibility interval will be wider among subsets of the population. All sample surveys and polls may be subject to other sources of error, including, but not limited to coverage error, and measurement error.

GLOBAL NEWS POLL FROM LAST YEAR HAS SAME POLLING NUMBERS

Alberta's renewable energy pause could become lingering stumble, observers say

WE DON'T NEED TO WORRY ABOUT ADVESARIES WHEN WE HAVE DANIELLE SMITH & UCP/TBA

The Canadian Press
Sat, December 16, 2023 



EDMONTON — It was just supposed to be a pause, a breather for an overburdened regulator and concerned public to catch up with an industry growing beyond expectations.

But for those who study the renewable electricity industry, as well as for those in it, the six-month moratorium on project approvals slated to come off in February could turn out to be a crucial stumble that costs Alberta its lead, perhaps forever.

"It's unlikely to think this kind of pause and decision will have no impact on investment," said Sara Hastings-Simon of the University of Calgary's School of Public Policy. "It's hard to know how large (the impact) is … but we're in a competitive market to attract capital."

As recently as last summer, the sun shone bright and the breezes were favourable for Alberta renewables. The Business Renewable Centre, a group that links buyers and producers of renewable energy, said Alberta was on track to see $3.7 billion worth of construction by the end of this year, creating more than 4,500 jobs.

Then, in August, Alberta's United Conservative government announced a moratorium on approvals for all wind, solar and geothermal projects greater than one megawatt. The announcement was made suddenly, without consultation.

Government officials initially said the pause was made at the request of rural municipalities and the Alberta Utilities Commission. When it turned out no such requests had been made, the move was justified by concerns over reclamation, destruction of farmland and despoiling of what the government called "pristine viewscapes."

Premier Danielle Smith has since expressed public doubts over renewables, calling them a "fantasy" and suggesting they are unreliable and expensive. She mused about creating a Crown corporation specifically to fund natural gas-fired power generation.

"They've been pretty clear in their public messaging," said Tim Weis, a professor in the University of Alberta's engineering faculty. "There seems to be a lot of direct attacks on renewables."

It has eroded trust, said Claude Mindorff of PACE Canada, a company behind several solar projects in Alberta, including a stalled 14-megawatt installation outside of the village of Caroline.

"I feels like there's underlying agendas on the part of the government," he said.

Weis said the pause's end date of Feb. 24 doesn't necessarily signal a return to normal.

The Alberta Utilities Commission has another month after that to complete an inquiry into the industry. Then the government has to digest and implement recommendations.

"If (it has) announced that we need another two or three years to figure out the rules, that's going to add to the uncertainty," Weis said.

Meanwhile, other jurisdictions are making moves. Nova Scotia, Ontario, Quebec and British Columbia are opening their doors to more renewable power — not to mention the vast U.S. appetite for investment capital.

The favourable economics of renewable power in Alberta could also be eroded by increased costs, whether from new regulatory requirements that force companies to front-load cleanup costs or competition for labour and materials as the backlog of projects breaks.

"That may move (power purchase agreements) out of an economic range," said Jorden Dye of the Business Renewables Centre.

Hastings-Simon said installing enough solar power for Alberta to have a net-zero grid would consume about 0.1 per cent of its arable land.

"We certainly need to be thoughtful about local land use impacts," she said. "But as far as the concern around competition for land, the scale of land available suggests that's not a serious concern."

The Alberta Utilities Commission requested a report on agricultural effects. It found farming can continue around renewable energy sites, from pasturing animals to growing crops.

The commission also asked for a report into how giant windmills might affect the province's much-loved landscapes.

That report looked at 20 different studies of how wind farms affected real estate values. Eight studies showed no effect, six showed a negative effect while the rest showed mixed results.

The very idea of "viewscapes" rules makes investors nervous, said Dye.

"It's too nebulous to be a regulatory concept."

As for decommissioning and remediating costs, developers say that already informs their budgets. Mindorff said a pause wasn't needed to firm up rules around something companies were already doing.

He said placing roadblocks in front of an industry that hasn't caused any problems is "unbelievable gall."

"Without dealing with the decommissioning of oil and gas sites, how can you with a straight face say the renewable energy industry should deal with decommission?"

Another report for the utilities commission concluded that solar and wind facilities have significant, although variable, salvage value. Nor does renewable power create the chemical contamination concerns of oil and gas sites.

The pause will come off sooner or later and new rules will be laid down. Alberta's abundant sun and wind as well as its open-entry electricity market are powerful motivators for companies to build here.

Josh Aldrich, spokesman for Alberta's Ministry of Affordability and Utilities, said the proof is in the number of companies that want to build in the province. The number of projects in the Alberta Utilities Commission approvals queue has grown by almost 50 per cent.

"This is a strong indication that investor confidence remains high in Alberta’s renewable energy industry," he said in an email.

"Renewable electricity projects will continue to play an important role in Alberta’s electricity mix. Investors, municipalities and industry have all been looking for a more measured approach to renewables development and the inquiry will ensure we continue to see strong investment."

However, investors around the world have taken notice of what Alberta did, said Hastings-Simon.

"It's less about the rules themselves and more about the process," she said.

"It's hard to see how something like this wouldn't enter into the calculations that investors are doing when they choose where to put their money.

"We're running an actual experiment. We'll see the results when we get there."

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Dec. 16, 2023.

Bob Weber, The Canadian Press

Climate change could be avenue for adversaries to harm Canada, spy service warns

The Canadian Press
Sat, December 16, 2023 


OTTAWA — Canada's spy service warns that dramatic shifts caused by climate change and the ensuing fractious upheaval around the world could leave Canada vulnerable, imperilling its food and water supplies, energy security and Arctic sovereignty.

Global warming will threaten security as countries and other actors seek to either bolster their economic positions or exploit their adversaries' climate change-related weaknesses, says a newly released Canadian Security Intelligence Service analysis.

"Climate change will almost certainly heighten competition between nations, contribute to instability, strain capabilities and become the source of international tensions," the CSIS analysis says.

The Canadian Press used the Access to Information Act to obtain the assessment and other intelligence analyses produced this year that flag not only the threats from a changing climate but the resulting disruptions as players jockey for advantage.

The documents spell out an array of risks, ranging from foreign interference in Canada's move to a low-carbon economy to the rise of "electric terrorism" in the form of extremist violence linked to the green energy transition and even attempts to manipulate the climate through geoengineering.

Different countries are at different levels of risk, said Tom Deligiannis, a lecturer in the department of global studies at Wilfrid Laurier University.

"So those countries that have a lot of capacity, power resources and the willingness to use economic or other forms of coercion might seek to take advantage of the changing climate context," he said in an interview.

"I don't think it's a particularly big risk for Canada. I think it's much more a worry for small, more vulnerable developing states."

A stark 2021 CSIS report, released earlier this year, warned that climate change poses a profound, ongoing threat to national security and prosperity. The newly obtained analysis fleshes out the service's concerns, assessing how foreign actions might adversely affect Canada.

CSIS divides countries, non-state actors and individuals into four categories: leaders, spoilers, enablers and free riders.

Leaders guide global efforts at fighting climate change, often at their own expense, by seeking to reduce fossil fuel consumption, according to the spy service. Spoilers try to undermine leaders' efforts, protecting their own interests and even engaging in malicious activity.

Enablers, meanwhile, support the efforts of leaders, spoilers or both to achieve their own goals, while free riders simply benefit from the consequences of others' activity.

"Hostile actors could target certain sectors to leverage climate change, thereby causing additional, disproportionate harm to Canada," the CSIS analysis says.

For instance, Canadian food output could decline due to changes in weather patterns, CSIS says. At the same time, some countries might try to acquire large amounts of agricultural land and fertilizer to secure their own food supplies at the expense of Canada and its allies.

Spoilers may seek to steal agricultural research and technologies that help grow drought-resistant crops, the analysis says. In addition, water sources could become less reliable for crops or municipal drinking supplies.

Canada's energy security could be undermined if foreign sources become unreliable as fossil fuel producers seek to secure their markets, CSIS warns.

"Canada could encounter difficulty sourcing foreign components for solar and wind power that are not produced domestically."

Canada might also face competition with spoilers over clean energy technologies and needed critical minerals, while spoilers and enablers could target Canadian new energy technology research "for their benefit, at Canada's expense."

In Canada's North, permafrost thaw will harm Arctic infrastructure, making the region less habitable, CSIS predicts. In turn, other countries could challenge Canada's Arctic sovereignty as melting sea ice opens the region to more maritime travel.

There could also be greater competition for newly accessible natural resources in the North, the analysis says.

"These vulnerable sectors describe only some of the challenges that Canada and its allies will encounter as the climate changes."

It would be prudent for the federal government to ponder and plan for such possibilities, suggested Deligiannis. "I think it's useful for them to have an appreciation of some of these very complicated, interactive risks that climate change is having for Canada."

A May analytical brief by CSIS says China wants to be seen as a climate leader, embracing renewable energy, phasing out polluting sources and protecting the environment at its own expense.

However, the spy service says, China's actions make it a spoiler, harming climate for its own gain on a significant, globally disruptive scale.

China prioritizes carbon energy despite climate change commitments it has made, and its commanding renewable energy supply chains threaten Canadian and allied energy transition, CSIS adds.

China dominates the renewable energy sector, from reserves of key minerals to the manufacture of solar cells and batteries, "yet most renewables are manufactured with heavily polluting energy sources and are bound for foreign markets."

CSIS adds that China "has weaponized supply chains in the past," and Canada is already reliant upon its renewable energy technology.

The mining of critical minerals needed for green energy sources is seen as a way of helping save the planet, said Gabrielle Daoust, an assistant professor at the University of Northern British Columbia.

However, she said in an interview, such projects pose difficult political and moral questions, given that Indigenous and racialized communities affected by mining for crucial minerals are ones "already most vulnerable to the impacts of climate change, and who are disproportionately affected by the expansion of extractive development as part of the response to climate change."

A March intelligence brief from the Integrated Terrorism Assessment Centre cites electric terrorism — extremist violence linked to the extraction of critical minerals — as an emerging threat.

The centre, which includes members from across the intelligence community, says intensified global competition to control reserves of lithium and cobalt — two non-renewable critical minerals essential to powering green energy — is likely to spur such dangers.

"Canada will not be immune to extremist violence linked to green energy transition," the centre's brief says.

"Globally, certain countries, regions and industries stand to gain from transition, while others will see their livelihoods threatened, revenues decline and economies contract. Disparities are likely to manifest as increased instances of violence."

International competition for lithium and cobalt reserves could provoke "insurgency or cross-border conflicts" affecting Canadian interests abroad, particularly where Canadian companies are competitive in international markets, the centre says.

Canada has its own cobalt reserves and production, as well as less developed lithium reserves, the brief notes.

The centre foresees the potential for extremist violence by opponents of fossil fuel projects and those who resist the green energy transition.

Deligiannis and Daoust expressed concern about painting opponents of oil and gas pipelines as extremists, noting environmental activists are already wary of targeting and surveillance by state security agencies.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Dec. 16, 2023.

Jim Bronskill, The Canadian Press

If a tree burns in Canada’s unmanaged forest, does anyone count the carbon?

Story by Ryan M. Katz-Rosene, Associate Professor, School of Political Studies, L’Université d’Ottawa/University of Ottawa • 

THE CONVERSATION

Earlier this fall, a commentary in the journal Nature Communications, Earth & Environment argued for a change to the implementation of the Paris Agreement’s reporting mechanisms. The authors called for all countries to report carbon emissions and removals taking place across their entire territories, not just within so-called “managed” lands (as is presently the case).

However, this poses a challenge here in Canada, as there is deep uncertainty about the total carbon flux (balance of emissions and captures) in Canada’s “unmanaged” land.

I echo calls for the Government of Canada to scale up and improve its greenhouse gas (GHG) monitoring and modelling across Canada’s entire territory, and to report these findings in a much more open and transparent manner as part of its annual National GHG Inventory.

Differentiating between managed and unmanaged land

Under the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change, member countries are expected to report GHG emissions and removals taking place as a result of human activities. However, within the LULUCF (or Land Use, Land-Use Change, and Forestry) sector, it is not always clear what constitutes an anthropogenic influence.

The guidance provided by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) has been to delineate between “managed” and “unmanaged” lands, and to focus GHG reporting on the former since these are areas under substantive human influence. While a number of countries make use of this distinction, the portion of land in Canada that is unmanaged is truly significant — equivalent to about 69 per cent of the country’s total land area.

Canada’s National GHG Inventory does contain information about the carbon flux within managed lands, or lands comprised mostly of managed forest. There is currently around 232 million hectares of managed forest in Canada, however, this leaves roughly 715 million hectares of land in Canada which is technically unmanaged — all of which are unaccounted for in the National GHG Inventory.

What’s more, while Canada does track emissions from natural disturbances (such as in a forest fire) occurring in managed areas, it does not actually report these disturbances to the UN as part of its LULUCF emissions, based on the claim that these are not anthropogenic.

Read more: Québec's hardwood trees could move north. Here's how that could affect the boreal forest landscape

While there is a logic to separating these out, there is a substantial difference to Canada’s total LULUCF emissions, depending on whether or not they are included. For instance, if natural disturbances are included in the tally, Canada’s managed land is typically a net source of carbon, while if they are not included, Canada’s managed land is typically a net carbon sink.

The underlying problem, however, is the lack of clear and transparent information about GHG emissions and removals in Canada’s unmanaged lands.
Estimates vary widely

Earlier this summer, during Canada’s unprecedented wildfire season, I asked the Ministry of Energy and Natural Resources of Canada (NRCAN) for historical information about the net Carbon flux in unmanaged lands. I was surprised to learn that NRCAN does not yet have this data.


What NRCAN does have is a very robust carbon budget modelling tool, and thanks to this, some preliminary (unverified) estimates of wildfire emissions in unmanaged forests.

Wildfire emissions estimates for unmanaged forests are indeed a step in the right direction (as wildfires account for the bulk of emissions from natural disturbances), but there still remains a majority of unmanaged land which is not forested — including, for instance, vast peatlands which are also subject to wildfires.

No GHG emissions of any type occurring in unmanaged lands are currently being tracked or reported within the National GHG Inventory process.

There have been various efforts to quantify these emissions, yet estimates vary considerably, with some data sets limited to forest lands, and others looking at the full national territory.

One recent estimate used 16 different “Dynamic Global Vegetation Models,” and found that over the 20-year period from 2000-2020 unmanaged forests sequestered on average about 189 Megaton CO2 per year.


However, the Global Carbon Project’s estimates of “atmospheric inversions” suggests there may be orders of magnitude more carbon removal in Canada’s unmanaged land.

The size of the discrepancy between these estimates is puzzling. While one obvious explanation comes down to the former model using intact forests as a proxy for unmanaged land, and the latter model including all of Canada’s unmanaged land area, scientists believe there may be more to this discrepancy.
A need for further research and better reporting

It is unfortunate that Canada has no publicly stated estimate of the country’s total carbon flux. This is important information to help track whether Canada’s landmass is sequestering enough CO2 to offset natural disturbances, or whether the latter are outweighing the former.

Read more: Carbon removal is needed to achieve net zero but has its own climate risks

It is essential that the Government of Canada enhance its current efforts in land-based carbon flux analysis, and that such data and analysis is reported to the public in a more clear and transparent way.

This article is republished from The Conversation, >, a nonprofit, independent news organization bringing you facts and analysis to help you make sense of our complex world.

Read more:

Paying people to replant tropical forests − and letting them harvest the timber − can pay off for climate, justice and environment

How COP28 failed the world’s small islands

Ryan M. Katz-Rosene does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

Ottawa monitoring Chinese investment in domestic rare earths mine

WTF!

Ottawa minor charged as RCMP allege connection to possible terrorist activity against Jewish people

CBC
Sat, December 16, 2023 

An RCMP officer is seen on Parliament Hill in Ottawa in April 2017. A youth in Ottawa has been charged with terrorist-related offences that allegedly targeted Jewish people, the RCMP said on Saturday. (Chris Wattie/Reuters - image credit)

A youth in Ottawa has been charged with terrorist-related offences that allegedly targeted Jewish people, the RCMP said on Saturday.

The Mounties said in a statement that the suspect was arrested on Friday and that their age prevents any further release of information about the individual.

The RCMP said in the release that the suspect is alleged to have instructed someone, directly or indirectly, to carry out a terrorist activity against "Jewish persons."

Additionally, they are charged with "facilitation of a terrorist activity by communicating instructional material related to an explosive substance."

Police across Canada say reports of hate crimes against Jews and Muslims have been rising since Oct. 7, when Hamas militants launched a deadly surprise attack on Israel, prompting retaliatory military action in Gaza.

"We are thankful that law enforcement was able to foil the threat and that no one was hurt," the Centre for Israel and Jewish Affairs, an advocacy group representing Jewish organizations across Canada, said on social media.

"However, the ongoing threat to our community remains very real."

Ottawa youth charged with 'terrorism' offences for alleged targeting of Jews

Updated Sat, December 16, 2023 
By Kanishka Singh

(Reuters) -Canadian officials charged a youth in Ottawa with "terrorism" offences over alleged targeting of the Jewish community, police said on Saturday, amid warnings of rising antisemitism from the war in the Middle East.

The suspect was charged with "facilitation of a terrorist activity by communicating instructional material related to an explosive substance" and "knowingly instructing, directly or indirectly, a person to carry out a terrorist activity against Jewish persons," officials said in a statement on Saturday.


Ottawa Mayor Mark Sutcliffe said on social media platform X, formerly known as Twitter, that "there has been a rise in anti-semitism in Ottawa in recent weeks."

The arrest happened on Friday and the operation involved cooperation from multiple Canadian security agencies, according to the statement.

Police said the youth's age prevented further release of information about the suspect or the plot.

The Royal Canadian Mounted Policed noted it was seeing a concerning trend of violent extremism and "terrorist use of the internet, including amongst young persons."

Prime Minister Justin Trudeau has warned about a marked rise in antisemitism in Canada following Palestinian Islamist group Hamas' attack on Israel on Oct. 7 that killed 1,200 and Israel's subsequent assault on Gaza that the local health ministry says has killed nearly 19,000.

The number of antisemitic and anti-Muslim hate crimes in Toronto, Canada's largest city, spiked significantly since the start of the Gaza conflict, authorities said in November. Officials across the world have also warned about a rise in antisemitism and Islamophobia due to the war.

(Reporting by Kanishka Singh in Washington; Editing by Chizu Nomiyama and Michael Perry)

RCMP warn about spike in online extremism among Canadian youth

The Canadian Press
Sun, December 17, 2023 

THE MOTTO OF THE RCMP SAYS IT ALL: MAINTAIN THE RIGHT

OTTAWA — RCMP are warning about a rise in violent extremism among Canadian youth, while Jewish leaders urge community members to be diligent about security after two teenagers were arrested on terror-related charges in the last five days.

The Mounties say five Canadian youth have been arrested in terror-related cases since June.

"The RCMP is seeing a concerning trend of violent extremism and terrorist use of the internet, including amongst young persons," the Mounties said in a statement Saturday.

The statement asked "adults in positions of authority" including parents, guardians, teachers, and coaches, "to be alert for behaviours of concern which may be linked to violent extremism."

Jewish and Muslim leaders across Canada have reported an increase in hate-motivated attacks since the terrorist attacks launched by Hamas on Israel on Oct. 7, and the massive military response by Israel in Gaza.

Police have made arrests in several hate-motivated incidents, including assaults and the promotion of hatred online.

The RCMP's warning Saturday specifically addresses the radicalization of youth, often online.

The most recent case involved an Ottawa teen arrested Friday and charged in connection with a plot against the city's Jewish community. Because of the youth's age, police did not release much information about the accused, including who or what they were targeting beyond a general description of "Jewish persons."

The teen appeared in court briefly Saturday and remains in custody with another court appearance scheduled for Monday morning. The youth is charged with facilitating a terrorist activity by communicating instructions about an explosive substance, and with knowingly instructing someone else to carry out a terrorist activity.

It is not known if anyone else is being investigated in connection to that case.

The Jewish Federation of Ottawa said in an email to community members Sunday that police confirmed there is no risk to the community because the teen is now in custody.

Ottawa Police have increased patrols of Jewish institutions, including synagogues, community centres and schools. But the Jewish Federation said police continue to encourage the community to be vigilant.

"We ask that everyone exercise heightened awareness and diligence in following security protocols," the email said.

Gerry Almendrades, the community security director for the Centre for Jewish and Israel Affairs, said incidents like the new charges laid in Ottawa Saturday are the "culmination" of tolerating antisemitism in Canada.

He said he is reassured the Canadian security and intelligence agencies picked up on the threat and addressed it quickly.

RCMP said the Canadian Security Intelligence Service and the Integrated Terrorism Assessment Centre, along with provincial and municipal police, provided "indispensable collaboration" in the case.

Two days before the Ottawa youth was arrested, the RCMP Federal Policing Integrated National Security Enforcement Team arrested a 16-year-old in Calgary related to an ongoing terrorism investigation in that city.

He was arrested and released pending a terrorism peace bond hearing, under a provision of the Criminal Code allowing for the Crown to seek something similar to bail conditions for someone the Crown has reasonable grounds to fear may commit a terrorism offence.

The teen is the fourth person, and third teenager, arrested in that investigation.

The Canadian Press has asked the RCMP for information about the fifth youth arrested for terrorism activities but police did not immediately respond.

It has also sought reaction from Justice Minister Arif Virani and Public Safety Minister Dominic LeBlanc. The federal Liberals have been promising new legislation for several years to tackle rising online hatred, but progress has been delayed, in part because of the complexities between combating hatred and freedom of speech.

Social media played a prominent role in the cases in Calgary. During a peace bond hearing for a 17-year-old arrested in June, the court heard the teen used TikTok, Instagram and Snapchat to post videos, including one of himself saying to "kill all (gay people)" at an LGBTQ+ protest and another depicting a synagogue being blown up.

Twenty-year-old Zakarya Hussein, who pleaded guilty earlier this month to one terrorism charge, admitted in court that he had shared recruitment videos for the Islamic State group on TikTok and posted on Snapchat that his mission would begin during Pride Month.

Hussein is awaiting sentencing.

Jon Mitzmacher, head of the Ottawa Jewish Community School, said he received only a handful of queries from concerned parents following the news Saturday of the Ottawa youth's arrest.

"I was expecting many more emails from parents," he said. "I don't know if people have become numb to this at this point."

He said there has been heightened anxiety in his school community since the Oct. 7 attacks and security protocols have been increased, and he said his school and his students are safe.

The school received a bomb threat in October, though it was later proved to not be a true threat, Mitzmacher said.

Mitzmacher said one of the most distressing results of the incidents is a feeling in the Jewish community that they are alone. He said the most heartfelt thing anyone can do to help is to reach out and show support, however you can.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Dec. 17, 2023.

Mia Rabson, The Canadian Press

SF;SPECULATIVE FICTION

In 2024, Alberta NDP decides who it is without Rachel Notley as leader

OPINION BY ANONYMOUSE

CBC
Sun, December 17, 2023 

Alberta NDP Leader Rachel Notley waves as she concedes the election to the United Conservatives last May. She's stuck around as leader — again — despite the loss, but party insiders widely expect she'll step aside within months. (Jason Franson/The Canadian Press - image credit)

Since at least her days as premier, NDP Leader Rachel Notley has worn the same wristwatch. No luxury wrist bling — it's a digital number, though not as smart as an Apple Watch either.

Notley instead relies on the simplicity of a Garmin Forerunner 35 with a silicon wristband. Big digital time display, and it can sync with her phone's texts with her husband and her music player.

Notley's trusty old running watch, which she sported on 2023 election night.

Notley's trusty old running watch, which she sported on 2023 election night. (Jason Franson/The Canadian Press)

Most importantly, it serves her near-daily running habit. Tracks distance, pace, heart rate along with the kilometres of her morning routine.

At some point next year, likely in the first few months, Notley will announce that she's tapping the button on her watch's upper right corner. The stop button.

She'll declare an end to this ultra-marathon she's endured as leader of Alberta's New Democrats. She will step aside, having lifted them from fourth-party status in the legislature to one-term government and now a second consecutive term back in the opposition benches, across nearly 10 years in the spotlight.

Then, it's race time of another sort, a months-long jaunt to replace her.

The contestants have already been limbering up. And yes, to extend this tortured metaphor just one bit further, there does not appear to be a front-runner, rather three candidates at the front of the pack.

In addition to renewal, it also means the progressive party gets to be preoccupied for much of 2024 in the sort of leadership intrigue that has repeatedly preoccupied its political rivals, from Alison Redford to Jim Prentice to Brian Jean (catches breath) to Jason Kenney to Danielle Smith.

With Smith seemingly solid (for now) in her United Conservative leadership, it's the other side's turn to figure itself out. What is the Alberta NDP without Rachel Notley in charge?

The long (and not-yet-started) goodbye

Let's be clear — Notley has not announced any sort of departure yet. In a year-end interview that will be released later this month, she reiterated to my CBC colleague Janet French that she's not saying anything until she's ready to.

"As I've said before and I'll continue to say today, I'm going to take the time necessary to consider my future and consider all the various factors in that and I'll let people know once I've reached a conclusion," Notley said.

That's the official answer. Unofficially, it's widely understood in NDP ranks that Notley wanted to help guide her 38-member opposition caucus, half of whom are rookie MLAs, through the post-election process and their first legislature sitting this fall.

Many of them had been imagining (and/or bargaining for) which cabinet posts they'd get after the victory over Smith that never happened, so she had to temper their frustrations and assign all 38 an opposition critic's post. She has claimed full responsibility for her party's second consecutive loss, but the marked improvement over winning 24 seats in 2019 helped prevent New Democrats from demanding she exit promptly.

Many in the party owe her a debt of gratitude for lifting a perennial Edmonton rump party overwhelmingly dependent on union force into a competitive party with a broader progressive-centrist coalition that not only dominates the capital city, but is also strong in Calgary, and in May won the most votes in both major cities.

NDP leader Rachel Notley makes an announcement in Calgary on Tuesday, March 19, 2019. The Alberta election has been called for April 16.

Notley campaigning as the sitting premier in 2019. Despite two straight election losses, New Democrats credit her for expanding the party beyond its progressive Edmonton base. (Dave Chidley/The Canadian Press)

It's hard to find anybody in the party who expects Notley, who turns 60 next April, to stay on indefinitely and lead the party into a fourth straight election. A 1-for-3 electoral record and two straight defeats is subpar for any ex-premier, but better than any Alberta NDP leader before her could have imagined.

To give the next leader ample time to build a profile before the next provincial election in 2027, most NDPers expect an early 2024 or spring announcement from Notley, followed by a leadership race that extends through summer and likely fall.

And when she makes that long-awaited announcement, don't expect it to be a rapid exit. She'll more likely stick around while the party selects her replacement, rather than say goodbye and walk out the door.

She said in the interview that she believes a leader tends to only hand over reins immediately to an interim leader when they're hounded out of office over controversy or unpopularity, like former premier Alison Redford was in 2014.

"Typically that's not a thing that happens, so, I guess we'll see," Notley told CBC News.

Sticking around as opposition leader will allow her party to retain some degree of heat on Premier Smith and the cabinet while so many NDPers are busy in their internal contest.

The three MLAs considered the top suitors for NDP leadership after Notley. From left: Rakhi Pancholi, Sarah Hoffman and Kathleen Ganley

The three MLAs considered the top suitors for the NDP leadership after Notley. From left, Rakhi Pancholi, Sarah Hoffman and Kathleen Ganley. (CBC News/Alberta NDP/Instagram)

There may be several names in the mix for leader, but three current MLAs appear to have the best mix of profile and nascent organization to be in the top tier: Sarah Hoffman, Kathleen Ganley, both former cabinet ministers, and second-term MLA Rakhi Pancholi.

Each would bring a different value proposition to the leadership.

Hoffman, an Edmonton MLA and former health minister, is the NDP lifer in the group, who was a caucus aide in the mid-2000s. She has been Notley's deputy premier and deputy opposition leader, and stands to be the continuity candidate.

While it's expected that Notley won't endorse anybody, quiet murmurs will emerge that Hoffman is her effective favourite, and insiders will look to see what parts of the current leader's own electoral machine get behind the deputy.

But the legion of Notleyites is expansive enough that some will likely back the other main candidates as well.

Ganley, the former justice minister, is a Calgary MLA, and that latter fact will be one of her biggest arguments to voters. With Edmonton smothered in NDP orange the last three elections, many New Democrats want to solidify and expand gains elsewhere — and one Edmontonian or another has led the party continuously for the last four decades, since Grant Notley, Rachel's father, who represented northwest Alberta.

The party's energy critic, Ganley could stress ties to business and a more centrist approach, in hopes of expanding the party's political base.

Pancholi, is a suburban Edmonton MLA who was elected in 2019, the contest Kenney won. Because she didn't serve in Notley's recession-time, one-term government, she'll be able to present herself as more of a break from the past, and the record many Albertans look back on bitterly.

One likely asset in her corner will be close friend and fellow MLA Janis Irwin, who appears to have become the closest thing the Alberta NDP has to a social media sensation, especially popular among youth and the LGBTQ+ community. But will UCPers cast Irwin as a polarizing figure, and try to carve into Pancholi's renewal bid by proxy?

Crowding the race

Those might be the early top contenders, but others will put their name in, out of some combination of wanting the party to promote a broadly representative roster — need one male, at least? — or a desire to raise one's own political profile.

Edmonton MLA David Shepherd is said to be preparing his candidacy, building on the image he burnished as health critic during the pandemic, and new MLAs Jodi Calahoo Stonehouse and Samir Kayande may also kick tires and scrounge together deposit money. (Former environment minister Shannon Phillips, perennially whispered as a contender, is said to not be interested.)

As for outsiders, Alberta Federation of Labour's longtime head Gil McGowan's name bounces around the rumour mill, while former Calgary mayor Naheed Nenshi endorsed the NDP last election and perennially attracts speculation — though he also tends to detest partisan politics.

Somebody will get to lead Alberta's NDP on a different trajectory, and this diverse array of options could take the opposition in notably different directions.

But this much seems clear: by this time next year, this won't be Rachel Notley's party anymore. Somebody else will lead the charge against the UCP and Danielle Smith — with uncertain levels of success — while Notley will be able to let her running watch tick along for a few extra kilometres every morning.