Idaho researchers develop reactor digital twin

04 January 2024

A virtual replica of Idaho State University's (ISU's) AGN-201 research reactor, developed in collaboration with Idaho National Laboratory (INL), is claimed to be the world's first nuclear reactor digital twin.

The team checks out a component of the reactor digital twin (Image: INL)

Digital twins are virtual models of real-life assets, such as complex infrastructure, machines or buildings. By modelling nuclear reactors, digital twins allow researchers to understand how certain changes affect the entire system, without making an irreversible change to the physical reactor itself. According to INL, digital twins could save nuclear energy researchers time and money, especially as new, innovative reactors come online.

The AGN-201 digital twin receives real-time data from the actual reactor, then uses machine learning to anticipate its performance. With the digital twin, researchers can interact with the real-world reactor in mixed reality by monitoring data.

"Someday, digital twins of nuclear reactors could allow operators to control the reactor remotely," INL said.

The project began in August 2022 after INL digital engineer Ryan Stewart, an ISU graduate, recommended using the AGN-201 reactor for some of the team's planned demonstrations. The reactor was considered an ideal test bed for this project because it is simple compared with commercial power reactors.

ISU students installed data acquisition equipment in the reactor and developed operation scenarios to test the reactor twin - gaining a unique opportunity to take part in cutting edge research. The lab provided much of the digital engineering support, including data acquisition, cloud streaming, machine learning and mixed reality.

The lab's team presented these results to US Secretary of Energy Jennifer Granholm in May last year.

"The benefits of a nuclear reactor digital twin are enormous," said INL Digital Engineering Manager Christopher Ritter. "Digital twins provide a comprehensive understanding of nuclear fuel cycle facility operations, strengthening nuclear security and non-proliferation efforts."

The AGN-201 reactor - developed in the late 1950s by Aerojet General Nucleonics - began operating at ISU in 1965. This low-power (up to 5 Wt) research reactor is commonly used for both academic and industrial research/experiments, as well as for various testing and training purposes. It is one of five such reactors still operating in the world, two others of which are also in the USA.

Researched and written by World Nuclear News

 

New wetland proposed near Hinkley Point C

04 January 2024

EDF Energy is proposing the creation of more than 800 acres (324 hectares) of saltmarsh on the River Parrett in Somerset, UK, as an alternative to the proposal for 280 underwater speakers to produce an acoustic fish deterrent at the Hinkley Point C nuclear power plant.

The proposed new saltmarsh will be adjacent to the existing Steart Marshes (Image: EDF Energy)

Plans for the saltmarsh - proposed to keep some fish species away from the power station's cooling water system - are being developed with Natural England, Natural Resources Wales and the Environment Agency.

EDF Energy said the proposed saltmarsh - at Pawlett Hams near Bridgwater - would create a new habitat for fish and animals, improve local water quality and help prevent flooding.

It said creating saltmarsh is a proven way to increase and protect biodiversity. It will help fish by providing breeding grounds and provide food and shelter for birds and animals. Tidal marsh also filters and cleans water, prevents floods and locks away carbon "in one of our most effective weapons in the fight against climate change".

Steart Marshes, opposite the proposed new wetland, was created nine years ago and is now teeming with birds, fish and wildlife, and is a popular place for recreation, EDF Energy noted.

The creation of the new habitat to help protect fish populations replaces a proposal to install an acoustic fish deterrent system. This system would use 280 speakers to continuously make loud noises during the plant's planned 60-year operation. The impact of such systems on porpoises, seals, whales and other species is unknown, the company said, adding that independent studies showed it would offer a very small potential benefit to protected fish species. It would also risk the safety of divers in the fast-flowing tides of the Bristol Channel.

There will be a 'fish return' system at the new plant (Image: EDF)

The new saltmarsh is one of a number of proposed measures to help wildlife and the environment around the Severn estuary. These include the planting of seagrass and kelp, developing native oyster beds and removing weirs on three rivers to help migrating fish to reach their breeding grounds.

The proposals for habitat creation and other changes to Hinkley Point C's design - such as alterations to the way the plant will store used nuclear fuel - will be included in a public consultation launching on 9 January.

"The new wetland would be a fantastic place for wildlife and a beautiful place to visit," said Chris Fayers, head of environment at Hinkley Point C. "Using natural and proven ways to improve the environment is better than creating 60 years of noise pollution with a system that is untested far offshore in the fast-flowing waters of the Severn.

"Hinkley Point C is one of Britain's biggest acts in the fight against climate change and its operation will provide significant benefits for the environment."

Hinkley Point C will be the first new nuclear power station to be built in the UK in more than 20 years and will provide about 7% of the country's electricity. Construction of the plant began in December 2018. The first of its two 1630 MWe EPR reactors is scheduled to be connected to the grid in 2027 and the second in 2028.

Researched and written by World Nuclear News

 

Sweden appoints national nuclear power coordinator

05 January 2024

Swedish Energy & Industry Minister Ebba Busch has announced the appointment of Carl Berglöf as national nuclear power coordinator as the country embarks on a programme to expand its nuclear generating capacity. He will support the government in its work to promote new nuclear power.

Ebba Busch (right) announces the appointment of Carl Berglöf as national nuclear power coordinator (Image: regeringen.se)

In October 2022, Sweden's incoming centre-right coalition government adopted a positive stance towards nuclear energy. In November last year, it unveiled a roadmap which envisages the construction of new nuclear generating capacity equivalent to at least two large-scale reactors by 2035, with up to ten new large-scale reactors coming online by 2045.

"In order for new nuclear power to come to fruition, it is important that all relevant actors come together and have a close dialogue about how the expansion can be carried out at the pace needed to meet a growing need for electricity and based on the requirements of the total defense for a robust and resilient energy supply," the government said on 4 December. "The coordinator will be a point of contact for stakeholders and actors in the area and will cooperate with them in order to increase the rate of establishment of new reactors."

Berglöf - who has been a nuclear advisor at the industry organisation Energiföretagen Sweden since 2017 - will take up the position as national nuclear power coordinator on 1 February.

As part of the role, he will be expected to continuously support the government in following up and analysing how the work with the expansion of nuclear power is progressing and identifying the need for supplementary measures. The assignment must be finalised by 31 December 2026 at the latest, the government said.

"The coordinator will have a central role in speeding up the expansion of new nuclear power and pushing for the measures required for the roadmap for new nuclear power in Sweden to be implemented," said Busch.

"I am very honoured to take on the role of national nuclear power coordinator," Berglöf said. "Over the past decade, I have worked in various roles to enable new nuclear power in Sweden, so I feel well prepared for the task. From my previous working life, I bring with me my deep knowledge of the subject, my broad network and my ability to untangle knots." 

Sweden's six nuclear power reactors currently generate about one-third of the country's electricity.

Researched and written by World Nuclear News

 

Nuclearelectrica gets EIB funding for tritium removal facility

05 January 2024

Romania's Nuclearelectrica has secured a loan agreement of EUR145 million (USD159 million) with the European Investment Bank (EIB) towards the completion of what will be Europe's first Tritium Removal Facility, at the Cernavoda nuclear power plant.

The Cernavoda plant is in the southeast of Romania (Image: Nuclearelectrica)

As Candu pressurised heavy water reactors age, tritium - an isotope of hydrogen - accumulates in its moderator and heat transport systems. Increased levels of tritium can significantly contribute to personnel dose rates and emissions levels in the environment. Tritium removal technology is designed to capture and process tritium so that it can be properly stored and recycled, thereby reducing environmental impact, personnel exposure levels and enhancing workplace safety.

The Cernavoda tritium removal facility - the world's third, and the first in Europe - will use technology developed by the Romanian National Research and Development Institute for Cryogenic and Isotopic Technologies, a scientific research and technological development unit under the coordination of the Ministry of Research, Innovation and Digitalisation.

The tritium removal facility will include several high-technology areas: liquid phase isotopic separation, cryogenic distillation and high-vacuum operation. The tritium extracted will be stored in secure and safe specialised containers ready for future use.

The loan agreement was announced on 22 December. Cosmin Ghiță, Nuclearelectrica CEO, said: "Cernavoda Tritium Removal Facility will be the world’s third and Europe’s first tritium removal facility and will give Romania the opportunity to become a European hub for tritium production and export - the fuel candidate of future clean fusion reactors. We are happy to implement a Romanian innovative technology, based on years of research and development, a true statement of Romania's leadership in nuclear industry."

EIB Vice-President Kyriacos Kakouris said: "The EIB is financing sustainable energy projects worldwide and we are glad to support this project with health, safety and circular economy benefits undertaken by an experienced promoter."

The EIB is the long-term lending institution of the European Union and makes long-term finance available for projects pursuing EU policy goals. Its approach to nuclear projects was defined in its Energy Lending Criteria 2013, outlining a technology neutral approach "in line with the European Union’s decarbonisation goal and the objectives of ensuring security of energy supply and competitiveness in an environmentally sustainable, cost-efficient, effective, safe and socially acceptable way".

Cernavoda is the only nuclear power plant in Romania and consists of two 650 MWe Candu-6 reactors. Unit 1 went into commercial operation in 1996 and unit 2 in 2007. Nuclearelectrica plans to extend the operating life of unit 1 to 60 years. Tritium removal facilities are already in operation at Ontario Power Generation's Darlington plant and Korea Hydro & Nuclear Power's Wolsong plant, both home to Candu reactors.

In June Korea Hydro & Nuclear Power signed an engineering, procurement and construction contract worth KRW260 billion (USD200 million) with Nuclearelectrica following a public procurement process. The project completion timeline is estimated to be 50 months.

Researched and written by World Nuclear News

 

South Africa opens draft IRP energy plan for public comment

05 January 2024

The draft Integrated Resource Plan (IRP 2023) setting out how South Africa will seek to ensure security of electricity supply was formally issued by Minister of Mineral Resources and Energy Gwede Mantashe and will be open to public comments until 23 February.

Koeberg (Image: Eskom)

"The purpose of this publication is to solicit public comments on the assumptions, input parameters, scenarios, and observations made," the Department for Mineral Resources and Energy (DMRE) said on X. "Comments submitted will be considered in drafting the final policy adjusted plan which will map out the future energy mix for the country."

The 52-page document has been published in the South African Government Gazette and considers several scenarios and latest developments in the country's electricity industry, DMRE said. It considers two time horizons: the period up to 2030, focusing on addressing prevailing generation capacity constraints and system requirements to close the supply gap; and the period from 2031 to 2050, focusing on long-term electricity generation planning with pathways to achieve a net zero electricity sector by 2050.

South Africa's previous IRP, published in 2019, recognised the need to retain nuclear power in the country's energy mix and supported utility Eskom in pursuing a licence for the long-term operation of the Koeberg nuclear power plant. The plant's life extension is currently being reviewed by the National Nuclear Regulator, the new document notes.

Over the longer horizon, pathways comprising dispatchable technologies with high utilisation factors - including different combinations of nuclear, renewables, clean coal and gas - will provide security of supply as well as supporting carbon reduction commitments, the report finds.

Firm decisions based on system requirements are "crucial", the plan concludes, but final policy decisions "must be taken on the basis of a longterm decarbonisation trajectory" while improving South Africa's competitiveness and economic growth, the IRP concludes.

The DMRE recently confirmed it intends to start the procurement process for 2500 MWe of new nuclear capacity, with plans to issue requests for proposals by March 2024.

Researched and written by World Nuclear News

 

Connection to grid requested for Poland's first plant

05 January 2024

Polish electricity grid operator Polskie Sieci Elektroenergetyczne (PSE) has determined the parameters required for connecting the country's first nuclear power plant, planned in Pomerania, to the national grid.

An illustrative example of how the Pomeranian plant might look (Image: PEJ)

Every quarter, PSE updates the list of companies that have applied for a connection to the national grid. According to the latest list, on 7 December Polskie Elektrownie Jądrowe (PEJ) received the conditions for the connection to the grid of a nuclear power plant in the Gdańsk area with a capacity of up to 3720 MWe.

The next stage in the process is the conclusion of a connection agreement between PSE and PEJ - a special-purpose vehicle 100% owned by the State Treasury. The date of concluding the connection agreement and the date of connecting the power plant to the national grid have not yet been determined.

In November 2022, the then Polish government selected the Westinghouse AP1000 reactor technology for construction at the Lubiatowo-Kopalino site in the Choczewo municipality in Pomerania in northern Poland. An agreement setting a plan for the delivery of the plant was signed in May last year by Westinghouse, Bechtel and PEJ. The country's Ministry of Climate and Environment in July issued a decision-in-principle for PEJ to construct the plant. The aim is for Poland's first AP1000 reactor to enter commercial operation in 2033.

The Ministry of Climate and Environment in November last year issued a decision-in-principle for the country's second large nuclear power plant. Two South Korean-supplied APR1400 reactors are planned in the Patnów-Konin region.

Researched and written by World Nuclear News

 

Nuclear icebreakers help Northern Sea Route to record year

05 January 2024

A new record for cargo transported via Russia's Northern Sea Route was set in 2023 with existing nuclear icebreakers providing more than 730 vessel support services. Work continues to progress on two more nuclear-powered icebreakers.

(Image: Rosatomflot)

The Northern Sea Route (NSR) runs along the north coast of Russia connecting the European and far eastern ports of Russia over a distance of 5600 kilometres. By 21 December, Rosatom reported that 35 million tonnes had been transported, compared with the previous record of 34.1 million tonnes, which was set in 2021.

Vladimir Panov, special representative of the Rosatom State Corporation for Arctic development, noted that in 1987 the record for NSR freight for the Soviet Union was set at 7 tonnes and that 2023's figure was a bounce back from 2022 when there was a 90% drop in transit cargo flow "due to geopolitical factors". He said that this had been reversed with a record set for transit cargo flow, of 2.17 million tonnes, with cargo redirected from the Suez Canal to the Northern Sea Route.

According to a report by Norway's Nord university's High North News, citing Center for High North Logistics data, "strong demand for Russian crude oil in China resulted in record transit cargo on the Northern Sea Route in 2023. More than a dozen shipments delivered 1.5m tons of crude oil from the Baltic Sea to China through the Arctic". It reports that "additional volume came in the form of iron ore, coal and LNG. General cargo and containerised cargo accounted for around 7 percent".

Rosatom says that the distance from Murmansk to Japanese ports is halved by using the NSR rather than the Suez Canal, with the duration cut from about 37 to 18 days. Panov said of the growth of the total cargo: "This contribution will only grow. The Northern Sea Route is defined by the President of the Russian Federation Vladimir Putin as one of the strategic development priorities."

Further development of the Northern Sea Route is also due to be on the agenda of a conference in March held at Russia's Chamber of Commerce which, according to the Tass news agency, will focus on the development of the "backbone cities" of the route. It also quoted President Putin as saying in December that the NSR was "becoming more efficient than the Suez Canal" and was becoming more open for ships in different seasons of the year, although the icebreaker fleet will still be needed for a long time, "for more than one decade and this is a great competitive advantage for our country".

The nuclear-powered icebreakers play a key role in the development of the shipping route and there is currently a construction programme 'Project 22220' to build a new fleet. As part of this, the second RITM-200 reactor unit was delivered to the Baltic Plant in St Petersburg on 22 December, to be installed on the Chukotka, which is due to be delivered in 2026. The reactor weighs 147.5 tonnes, is 7.3 metres high and 3.3 metres in diameter - the RITM-200 installation includes two reactors with a thermal power of 175 MWt each, which deliver 60 MW at the propellers via twin turbine generators and three motors.

The second reactor for the Chukotka arrives (Image: Baltic Shipyard)

Igor Kotov, head of manufacturers Rosatom’s Mechanical Engineering Division, said: "The arrival of the tenth RITM-200 reactor unit at the Baltic Plant is a significant event for the Mechanical Engineering Division of Rosatom. Now all the newest generation universal nuclear icebreakers being built at this shipyard are equipped with the most modern installations that will allow the icebreaker fleet to work more efficiently and transport even more cargo along the Northern Sea Route."

The fourth of the Project 22220 icebreakers - the Yakutia - is also currently under construction at the site. In November its mast, which is 18.6 metres tall and weighs about 76 tonnes, was loaded on to the vessel, which led to it reaching its final height of 59.3 metres. It is slated for service later this year, when it will follow the Artika, Sibir and Ural.

The Yakutia gets its mast (Image Baltic Shipyard)

Andrey Tenitsky, adviser to the director general of FSUE Atomflot, said that there had been a notable lowering of the average age of people working for Rosatomflot: "Young people are attracted to work on new universal nuclear icebreakers: modern domestic equipment, unique technologies and reliability. But there is also noticeable career growth on these ships. For example, on Project 22220 nuclear-powered ships there are two captains who have not yet turned 42 years old."

Researched and written by World Nuclear News

 

Canadian collaboration to explore isotope production for space exploration

05 January 2024

The Canadian Nuclear Isotope Council (CNIC) and nuclear innovation company Nuclear Promise X (NPX) will explore the feasibility of using Canadian nuclear reactors to produce plutonium-238 (Pu-238) for use in deep space exploration.

An image from the Martian surface captured by NASA's Perseverance rover - which uses a radioisotope thermoelectric generator fuelled by Pu-238 - in March 2021 (Image: NASA/JPL-Caltech)

The study for the Canadian Space Agency will look at how Canada's existing reactors can be used to irradiate neptunium-237 to produce Pu-238, and all costs associated with production, shipment, and extraction of the energy source. The goal will be to understand if it is economically feasible for Canada's reactors to add Pu-238 to their existing isotope production portfolio, leveraging the medical isotope production infrastructure which is already in place.

CNIC members will evaluate the feasibility of production and level of capability, with NPX providing overall project management and engineering.

NPX CEO Bharath Nangia said the company looks to operate "in the intersection" of nuclear energy and innovation. "This is going to be a rewarding and creative project, that has the potential to add a lot of value," he said.

Radioisotope power systems fuelled with Pu-238 have been used in space missions since the early 1960s, using the heat from the radioactive decay of the isotope to provide power and heat continuously over long, deep space missions. Such systems have been used in missions including the Voyager and Pioneer spacecraft, as well as the Perseverance rover. However, supplies of Pu-238 are limited. The US Department of Energy restarted production of the isotope in 2015 after a gap of some 30 years, but Russia - which had previously also supplied the isotope - ceased production in 2009. The European Space Agency is considering the use of americium-241 derived from civil plutonium stockpiles as an alternative.

The CNIC is an independent organisation of representatives from the Canadian health sector, nuclear industry and research bodies, which was established in 2018 to advocate for Canada's role in the production of the world's radioisotope supply. CNIC Chair James Scongack said the study aligns with the organisation's Isotopes for Hope Campaign, launched in 2023. "Together our companies working with NPX hope to demonstrate another example of why radioisotopes are so important to modern society," he said.

Researched and written by World Nuclear News

Blade runners: how LFP batteries brought EV metal markets back to earth

Frik Els | January 5, 2024 | 

LONG READ

LFP’s moonshot landed. Image: Space X

In February 2020, your reporter published the following headline:

Tesla’s China surprise big blow for cobalt, nickel price bulls


In a surprise move, China’s top battery manufacturer CATL will supply Tesla with lithium iron phosphate (LFP) batteries for Model 3 production at its newly built $2 billion factory outside Shanghai.

A follow up a year later confirmed the blow was bigly:

Cobalt, nickel free electric car batteries are a runaway success

Few months in, LFP Model 3 already commands 5% of global EV market, counts for 21% of Tesla battery capacity hitting roads–even before key patent expiry next year.
The iron fist

It’s January 2024 and unfortunately for said cobalt and nickel bulls the blow from the iron fist is even more severe than feared. And the runaway success has become a battery-powered juggernaut.

During that month nearly four years ago when Elon Musk first announced the move to LFP batteries, the cathode chemistry contributed less than 50 tonnes to overall battery metal demand according to Adamas Intelligence, Toronto-based research consultants tracking demand for EV batteries by chemistry, cell supplier and capacity in over 110 countries.

The 50 tonnes LFP batteries used was a fraction of the nearly 13,000 tonnes of lithium, graphite, nickel, manganese and cobalt that found their way into the batteries of electric passenger cars sold during February 2020.

NCM (nickel-cobalt-manganese) and Tesla-Panasonic’s NCA (nickel-cobalt-aluminum) dominated the market for electric cars at the time. LFP fares badly against ternary cathode batteries in terms of energy and power density and therefore charging time and range. LFP’s cold weather performance is also significantly worse but is hard to beat when it comes to cost, is better at thermal stability not catching fire and lifespan.

Musk had long voiced concerns about nickel supply – once saying that he called up all the big mining CEOs to ask them to please make (sic) more nickel. Thrifting out cobalt was also a priority at the Texas-based electric car pioneer with Musk saying publicly that Teslas were virtually cobalt-free while simultaneously inking offtakes with Glencore.

Shanghai surprise. Image: China gigafactory opening January 2019.

At the time LFP was associated with tiny and tinny city runabouts like the Wuling Hongguang Mini EV Macaron (not making that up and yes, there is a cabrio version and it’s called the FreZe Froggy in Europe), end-mile delivery vans, buses and other special purpose vehicles.

Range then as now was a top concern for those looking to electrify and the Wuling Mini EV (a GM joint venture creation now available in the top-of-the-range Gameboy Edition; look it up) only managed around 100 miles in lab conditions.

The Mini EV surpassed the Tesla Model 3 as China’s bestselling EV in 2020. A sticker price of less than $6,000 clinched it.

Like other outlets, this paper was skeptical of the idea that LFP fitted well with Tesla’s luxury and sporty carmaker image.

We were wrong. Sorry again Mr Musk.

Build your nickel, cobalt free dreams

Weeks after Tesla’s Shanghai surprise, LFP received what turned out to be an even bigger boost to its build out.

In March 2020, BYD “unsheathed to safeguard the world” its Blade batteries. The Shenzhen-based auto and battery manufacturer’s breakthrough technology compensated for the inherent energy density limitations of LFP by cramming more cells into battery packs.

BYD even said at the event (online only – this was March 2020 after all) it’s happy to share the technology with all interested parties. Much was made of the safety of LFP over NCM and NCA and BYD would shift its entire range to LFP.

The month of the unsheathing Tesla supplied new owners of its S,3,X models and just launched Y, nine power hours for every one BYD did.

Today BYD’s full electric range outsells Tesla in good months. Factor in its popular plug-ins – also LFP only – and BYD is nearly 600,000 car lengths ahead of Tesla. Tellingly, BYD started out as battery company in the 1990s.

BYD, in which Warren Buffet famously bought a stake in 2008 for $232 million that is still worth some $6 billion after years of steady divestment, sells one out of every five EVs around the world. That’s despite being largely absent from markets outside China (BYD supplies Tesla’s Berlin factory with LFP batteries).

LFP now also runs the gamut of vehicle segments. All the way from the Wuling Hongguang Nano EV (for those who found the Mini a bit too bulky) to BYD’s gigantic YangWang U8. The YangWang wagon can do a 360 degree tank turn, float on water and sail at 1.62 knots and retails for $150,000 making it China’s most expensive EV. It also weighs 3-and-half tonnes (another comparative downside of LFP).

The cheaper of the pack

During the first ten months of 2023 LFP cornered 31% of the global EV battery market in GWh terms despite virtually zero LFP manufacturing capacity outside China. By the time final registrations for the calendar year is tallied, it may well be a third.

Nickel and cobalt containing batteries are now cut out of over half the Chinese market in GWh terms. With China leading the pack, on a cumulative basis LFP recently overtook NCM 523 (roughly 50% Ni, 20% Co, 30% Mn) as the top cathode technology in the global EV parc. Adamas battery capacity data is based on vehicles delivered to end-customers, not wholesale markets or sales to dealerships.

The lemon law. Image: GM

LFP is now also firmly in the driver seat at Tesla. The vast majority of newly sold Model 3s around the world this year has been LFP powered. And the LFP-version of the Model Y occupies the top spot in China in terms of battery capacity deployed.

The cost advantage of LFP shrank considerably as lithium flirted with $80,000 a tonne in 2022, but the decline has been swift since then. In China spot prices for lithium carbonate are below $16,000 a tonne, hydroxide used in hi-nickel batteries dipped below $15,000 last week and spodumene averaged $1,300 a tonne – all down by 80% this year with losses accelerating into the year end, according to Benchmark Mineral Intelligence.

The bounce caused by the trucker strike in central Africa and worries about DRC elections have turned into a dead cat and cobalt enters 2024 below $30,000 a tonne. Coupled with the chaotic highs on London nickel markets giving way to a steady decline to the mid $16,000s a tonne on the LME, lithium’s losses has turned LFP cheap and cheerful again.

Thanks a tonne

The 50 tonnes of LFP induced demand of February 2020 is now 27,000 tonnes per month, to which you can add another few 100 tonnes from best of both worlds LFP-NCM combo batteries finding their way into more and more EVs.

From just over 33% in 2019 before LFP’s coming out year, nickel’s share of global active battery material demand has now fallen below 25%. From a nicely carved niche of 8% in 2019, cobalt clings on at less than 5% now. Manganese is down from close to 9% to 6%.

Nickel’s waning battery metal share comes despite the rapid adoption of nickel rich chemistries for NCM batteries. In early versions of NCM the metals were applied in a roughly 1:1:1 ratio. In 2023 this mix makes up 1% and that’s probably dealerships moving stock forgotten on a lot somewhere.

So far this year NCM 811 with nickel in excess of 80% has cornered more than a fifth of the market in GWh terms, surpassing NCM 523 (roughly 50%+ nickel), according to Adamas. Tesla-Panasonic’s third generation NCA also contains over 80% nickel while NCM cathode chemistries with 90% nickel have been available for a while.

Since lithium carbonate equivalent tonnages and LCE prices are almost always quoted in industry literature it’s easy to forget that tonne for tonne nickel is in fact THE battery metal and on a 100% metal content basis total demand for cobalt and manganese is not that far behind lithium. (New Year’s resolution: Always divide by 5.323.)

Or in the words of Musk in 2016 well before LFP: “Technically, our cells should be called nickel-graphite, because the primary constituent in the cell as a whole is nickel. There’s a little bit of lithium in there, but it’s like the salt on the salad.”
Blade runners

So what would a world look like without blade runners like BYD’s Dolphin, Seal, Han, Song and YangWang and Fangchengbao luxury and off-road brands? What if Tesla opted to employ NCM and NCA for all their vehicles? Or if the LFP cells supplied by CATL – the world’s biggest EV battery maker by a country mile – did not displace a third of its NCM output?

Hold onto your hard hats. It’s not pretty.

The combined battery capacity of EVs (including conventional and mild hybrids) is likely to surpass 700 GWh in 2023, a 45% gain over 2022 and is more than five times the size it was in 2020 and the basket of battery metals in newly sold EVs should easily surpass one million tonnes Adamas predicts.

On an annual basis potential nickel tonnes lost this year is likely to top 107,000 tonnes. For cobalt the metal that went unwanted because of LFP would be more than 38,000 tonnes or roughly 20% of global production last year. Producers of manganese for the battery supply chain would have enjoyed 58,000 tonnes greater annual demand.

Add tonnes lost to LFP to actual use for the year, and you get to 94,000 tonnes of cobalt demand from the EV sector. That’s more than half of cobalt mined each year ending up in the EV industry. For nickel that number is 375,000 tonnes and manganese 127,000 tonnes.

Adamas crunched the numbers on the basis of mid-market NCM 5-Series being the battery doing the work of LFP, not NCM 811. Under the latter scenario the what-could’ve-been for nickel miners would naturally be even more eye-watering.

Also keep in mind the kilograms that end up in every EV are fractions of what would have been procured upstream.

A factor that is sometimes omitted from estimates of metal requirements is low yields in the conversion and manufacturing process.

CATL disclosed 50% yield in its factories early on, exacerbated by ramp up challenges, but even at a steady state your average cell producer turns as much as 30% of the metals entering factory gates into black mass. Between the mine mouth and the gigafactory many more tonnes are never recovered.
Battery bulge

Despite the havoc wreaked by LFP other trends are nickel and cobalt’s friend. The combined battery capacity of EVs sold this year has surged by 45% year on year and is running well ahead of new registrations which are up 33% globally according to Adamas data.

Battery capacity is a better gauge of metal demand than unit sales alone and not only are packs bulking up, the shift to high-nickel batteries has some way to go.

Last year, the sales weighted average full electric vehicle – including LFP-powered units – sold globally contained just under 25 kilograms of nickel in its battery, 7% more than in 2022. The average battery in plug-in hybrids, which are soaring in popularity particularly in China, had 6.4kg of the devil’s copper, a 12% year on year jump.

The big battery bulge is also keeping cobalt weightings from falling more quickly amid ongoing thrifting. On average full electric cars sold globally in 2023 contained 4.8 kilograms and plug-in hybrids 2.2 kg up 5% and 2%.

Nickel’s not classy

It’s perhaps too easy to blame LFP for today’s Ni-Co situation although it was earlier predictions for spectacular demand growth from electric cars that spurred much of the investment in new supply and in the case of nickel, new industrial processes, in the first place.

Global nickel exploration (and by extension cobalt) budgets according to S&P Global Market Intelligence are up 19% this year to a remarkable $732 million, nearly a quarter of what is being spent expanding or finding new copper resources. Nickel only reached annual output of 3 million tonnes last year and that’s after years of robust growth – the copper industry is nearly eight times the size.

HPAL pals. Image: Joko Widodo, Twitter.

Most of the nickel mined around the world still ends up as stainless steel and soft demand from the construction and manufacturing sector on the all-important Chinese market has seen vast surpluses in non-class 1 nickel – not suitable for the battery supply chain – build up.

However, when it comes to demand from the EV sector nickel class matters less today. Large chunks of the China-Indonesia nickel-pig-iron industry is pivoting towards LME and battery friendly products (not so environmentally friendly though).

A rapid ramp up in Indonesia nickel mining thanks to a slew of new high-pressure-acid-leach (HPAL) projects (even attracting investment from as far afield as Dearborn) which are about as environmentally conscious as they sound only adds to the weak fundamentals. Indonesia is already responsible for half of global nickel output and Chinese investment in the archipelago is not slowing.

Cobalt blues

Cobalt probably had most to gain from the EV revolution, it’s a small highly concentrated market, with a few big players and sparkling per tonne prices.

Indeed, Glencore was the first major to herald a new dawn for mining thanks to electric cars, telling investors in 2017 that “as early as 2020, when electric vehicles would still make up only 2% of new vehicle sales, related metal demand already becomes significant.”

That prediction proved conservative – global penetration reached over 5% in 2020.

But cobalt thrifting had become more of a priority after the 2018 spike to above $100,000 tonne scared automakers and ESG-transgression hunters went looking for breaches in the Congo, responsible for over two-thirds of the world’s cobalt.

Nearly all cobalt supply is a byproduct of nickel and copper mining. As far back as 2019, BMW’s offtakers pounced on the only primary cobalt mine in the world, although Canada’s Fortune Minerals could soon provide an opportunity for enterprising automakers.

In an irony that would not be lost on cobalt promotors rumours are swirling that the Swiss miner is considering suspending production at Mutanda again to shore up cobalt prices (as it is, Mutanda’s output is down 15% due to lower grades).

It worked in 2019 when Mutanda still had 20% of the market, but new supply not just from the Congo but also Indonesia where laterites come with a thick layer of cobalt would mute the impact this time around.

Cobalt just does not have much going for it at the moment. Vast cobalt stockpiles from Tenke Fungurume in the DRC are still being sold down and the copper-cobalt mine’s Chinese owner’s expansion plans are well under way. Tenke could soon rival Mutanda as the world’s largest cobalt mine and CMOC overtook Glencore as the world’s number one cobalt producer in 2023.

A new railway through Zambia to Tanzania’s Dar es Salaam port will also alleviate cobalt’s lasting logistics problems which have underpinned prices in the past.

EVs overtook all else when it comes to cobalt demand a few years ago now, so a fall-off at the margins coupled with the small size of the market can quickly and thoroughly depress prices.

Manganese meh

Manganese is often overlooked in the battery metals space and the excitement stirred by Volkswagen’s newly-formed PowerCo battery subsidiary back in March 2021 have long dissipated. At the time, the world’s no 2 carmaker said it’s building six new plants and are looking at high-manganese batteries for its mid-range vehicles.

But last month Volkswagen said a fourth European battery factory is postponed indefinitely, much to the relief of Czech taxpayers who unlike their Canadian counterparts now won’t not have to shoulder billions in subsidies and tax breaks for the honour of having a large battery factory.

Horses for courses. Image: BYD Yangwang U8

Tesla has also expressed interest in manganese, with Musk saying last year high-manganese batteries could be an alternative to LFP, but there’s been little news since then.

Besides, with ore production of 20 million tonnes per year, LMFP and other high-manganese chemistries were never going to light a fire under manganese at the mining level.

That said, downstream battery ready compounds do become scarce from time to time and manganese sulfate in China has not succumbed the way lithium, cobalt and nickel has. Manganese sulphate is down 29% over the last year changing hands for less than $700 a tonne in China.

US, EU 2. Affordable Chinese EVs 0

Another development that could keep the LFP wolf from the door on markets outside China a bit longer is geopolitics and a growing mercantilist approach to trade in the world’s largest economies.

While Chinese-made EVs have close to zero presence in the US, Europeans can and often do choose Geometry, HiPhi, Lynk & Co, Ruixing, Seres, Aeolus, Zeekr, XPeng, Weltmeister (one of China’s earliest EV startups ribbing Wolfsburg and co), and others over homegrown automakers like Volkswagen, Peugeot and Fiat.

Get behind the wheel of a Tesla, Citroen, BMW, Dacia, Honda, Renault or Smart and there’s also a good chance you’re driving a made-in-China vehicle. Last year in terms of battery capacity rolled onto roads, nearly a fifth of the EVs bought by Europeans were made in China.

The EU’s probe of Beijing’s subsidies to its EV industry is all but inevitable to result in tariffs and other measure to limit access to EU car markets while in the US, long-awaited new rules on so-called foreign entities of concern (FEOC) all but eliminates direct Chinese involvement.

In 2024 EVs that contain any battery components manufactured or assembled by China will not be eligible for the US federal tax credit, currently a maximum of $7,500 per vehicle. The incentive cut-off date for any lithium, nickel, cobalt and graphite or other battery metals produced by, or which make their way through China, is 2025. Rare earths used in nearly 90% of all EV motors are already subject to IRA rules.

Not much more than a handful of electric cars sold in the US would qualify. On top of that a bipartisan group of lawmakers also recently asked for Trump era duties of 25% on Chinese automobiles to be doubled and to close any loopholes should China locate factories in Mexico for instance.

The new guidelines may allow US automakers to cut licensing and technology deals with Chinese companies. This should give a green light (although that’s far from clear) to ventures like Ford’s partnership with CATL for its LFP plant in Michigan, and Tesla’s venture in Texas with the Chinese behemoth.

Ford made much of the fact that BlueOval – which is now going to be 40% smaller than originally envisaged – would produce LFP batteries, calling it a “key part” of its US EV plans allowing it to “scale more quickly, making EVs more accessible and affordable for customers.” Given the success of Tesla and BYD with LFP, US automakers are bound to follow in their tracks.

Benchmark Mineral Intelligence sees LFP factory growth outside China at factors more than NCM build-out. But that would not nearly be enough for the rest of the world to embrace the technology at the same speed and scale as China, which itself is expected to grow LFP cathode capacity by more than three times by the end of the decade according to the London-headquartered research firm and pricing agency.

FEOC FOMO

The new EV provisions pitted automakers against mining firms with the former arguing that barring China from directly participating in the US mine-to-megawatt supply chain would be close to impossible given the short timelines and would delay EV adoption by Americans by pushing up costs.

The FEOC rules are intended to complement the Inflation Reduction Act’s requirement that any EV subsidy is conditional on a percentage of all material inputs being sourced either domestically or from a US free trade partner. Currently the threshold is 30% and will rise to 80% in 2027.
Now made in FEOC. Stock image.

An exception was made for foreign subsidiaries of privately-owned Chinese companies in friendly countries, like Australia and Indonesia, but even these entities may fall foul of the rules if they are deemed to be under the control of the Chinese government. Even off-take agreements with Chinese buyers – and for EVs they act as close to a monopsony – may be deemed to bring too much CCP influence to bear.

Miners, justifiably, want rules that speed up and incentivize domestic production, not least because the time from resource discovery to mine production is often counted in decades. The convoluted US permitting system also provides almost zero certainty that investments in new mines will pay off – no matter to what extent miners dot environmental i’s and cross social license to operate t’s.

The one-two punch by US and European authorities may end up bringing the much talked about – and yearned for – premium pricing for metals and minerals supplied by Western firms. What it won’t do is make EVs cheaper and reignite sales growth in these markets.

The road not travelled

While nickel-rich EV batteries will always have a large niche, it’s difficult to shake a sense of what could’ve been:

The latest and greatest Model Y – the global bestselling EV on a GWh basis – coming out of Tesla’s Texas factory has a NCM 811 battery which uses kilograms of cobalt that approach double digits and more than 50kg of nickel. The Cybertruck uses NCA for now, but the bestselling truck in the US, the Rivian R1T is moving to LFP so that the California startup can stop making up in volume what they lose per sale.

Imagine selling 20 million a year – as Musk promised – of these workhorses. Instead, the unwanted tonnes of Ni-Co-Mn will only pile higher and higher. Or stay buried.

According to China’s automobile association November was the first one million month for electric car sales and December is likely to top that. The US market is expanding by more than 50% year on year and penetration rates are still in single digits.

Germany is betting its industrial future, if not its national pride, on the ability to catch up to China in the electric car business. But at the moment three gasoline powered cars leave autohaus lots for each with a charging cable in the frunk.

South Korea is the world’s sixth largest EV market in terms of battery power rolling onto roads in 2023 and the only country that rivals China in battery output despite the absence of LFP capacity. Yet EV penetration is 11% south of the DMZ. As for Japan, its power hours fall short of Belgium’s.

How much of China’s lead can be ascribed to LFP remains up for discussion considering all the moving parts in the EV supply chain. But it’s safe to say China would not have been able to deploy more battery power in electric cars last year than the next 50 countries combined if it hadn’t.
Sodium on the podium

Vehicle electrification is the biggest thing to happen to the automotive and mining industries in a century. The green energy transition more broadly is allowing mining to step outside the shadow of oil and gas.

Crucially, for the first time metal extraction aligns with the goals of the environmental movement (even though the message does not seem to be getting through).

But the story of how LFP crashed into battery metals illuminates something else about mining.


Apart from gold which is money, the arrival of EVs has exposed the industry to the vagaries of technological change like never before.

LFP has severely dented nickel and cobalt prospects and after all metal pricing is all about the marginal tonnes. The next thing to come out of a lab could turn the mine that took decades to build into a white elephant. Substitution has and will keep miners awake at night.

Can sodium-ion batteries do to lithium-ion what iron phosphate did to nickel and cobalt? Three former Tesla executives seem to believe so. The first sodium-ion EVs could go on sale soon and sodium could also salt the field of stationary energy storage.

Until now graphite has been immune to changing chemistries, but the hard carbon anode used for sodium-ion cells can be made from food scraps. Can solid state lithium batteries, which can also do away with graphite for the anode, nix the parts sodium doesn’t?

Crude awakening

Unlike in mining, oil and gas demand destruction is not an intrinsic part of technological progress – at least not one that can play out over a few short years like cobalt and nickel free cells. As the outcome of COP28 showed, it must be imposed.

Indonesia, Russia and the Philippines control some three-quarters of global nickel supply, 70% of the world’s cobalt comes from the Congo and additional tonnes will mostly come from Indonesia.

If copper – ground zero for the energy transition – was crude and output could be turned up or down after a secretariate meeting in Vienna, Chile would be Saudi Arabia and all the Gulf states combined. It would be Peru’s sovereign wealth fund dangling $1 billion in front of a French soccer player.

But as platinum group metal watchers must realise by now, establishing an Opec+ style cartel will forever be a pipe dream in mining.

Nickel is not the new gold and no, lithium is not the new oil.

Yet here we are.

Back at the salt mines.

China’s coal king is catching up with its new battery champions

Bloomberg News | January 5, 2024 | 

A coal mine pit located in Qinghai Province, China. Stock image.

China’s battery giants are at the forefront of the global energy transition, but on the stock market they’re being outshined by the dirtiest fossil fuel.


Coal miner China Shenhua Energy Co.’s market capitalization is closing in on that of Contemporary Amperex Technology Co. Ltd. after surpassing BYD Co. in late November. It’s a stark difference from February last year, when CATL’s valuation was more than double that of Shenhua’s.




The diverging fortunes underscore the staying power of fossil fuels even as the world tries to decarbonize. Shenhua, China’s largest listed coal miner, has seen its shares rise 23% in the past year as authorities pushed mining output to record highs in a drive for energy security. The company’s shares in Hong Kong are near the highest level in more than a decade.

CATL and BYD’s share prices have plunged even as they’ve experienced real-world success. CATL dominates global battery sales, but increased competition has sent prices for energy storage devices falling. BYD overtook Tesla Inc. last quarter to become the world’s biggest electric vehicle producer, but is mired in a price war with rivals.

Still, analysts are betting on a rebound for the companies behind the energy transition. The average 12-month price targets for CATL and BYD are 74% and 61% above current levels, according to data compiled by Bloomberg. By contrast, Shenhua shares closed just above the average target on Thursday.

(By Dan Murtaugh)