Op-Ed: The EU ETS is an Opportunity to Create Genuine Change

iStock

PUBLISHED JAN 4, 2024 4:52 PM BY SØREN MEYER

 

Shipping’s inclusion in the EU Emissions Trading System (EU ETS) has created countless conversations over the past 12 months, as the industry prepares to comply with the new regulation. The EU ETS is a ‘cap-and-trade’ system, whereby the EU will set a limit each year on how much CO2 can be emitted, which decreases each year in line with the target to reduce emissions by 62% from 2005 to 2030. Companies will need to have a European Emission Allowance (EUA) for every tonne of CO2 they emit within each calendar year.  Operators will not be allowed to generate more greenhouse gas emissions than their EUAs can cover. If they do, heavy fines are imposed, creating both a financial and regulatory incentive to reduce emissions and improve efficiency.

According to a Reuters survey, the cost of an EUA is forecast to be on average €83.55 a metric tonne in 2024 and €88.95 in 2025. Shipping companies will be responsible for paying for emissions reported in the previous year in a phased implementation. In 2024, only CO2 emissions need to be covered by EUAs; in 2025, companies will pay for 40% of the emissions reported in 2024; in 2026, this rises to 70% of their emissions from 2025; and by 2027, they must cover 100% of their reported emissions.

A quarter of the revenue from maritime EUAs will go into the “Ocean Fund”, funding innovative decarbonization projects in the EU, with the rest going to Member States to specifically pay for maritime decarbonization projects such as port modernization, alternative fuel trials or funding projects in developing countries.

The EU ETS revenue potential for shipping in 2024 is estimated to be in the range of €1.6bn, reach €5.5bn in 2025 and €8bn in 2026. However, the latter two figures are broader estimations as CH4 and N2O gases will need to be accounted for in addition to CO2 and the industry has no prior experience calculating these gases. While this is surely a step in the right direction, revenue from the EU carbon market is a drop in the ocean compared to what a global carbon tax could generate. The World Bank estimates this could be an estimated $1 trillion to $3.7 trillion by 2050, or $40 – $60 billion annually.

A global carbon tax may be the eventual goal for the shipping industry to accelerate decarbonization, but the EU ETS is a great first step. It addresses the sector’s emissions, which have previously been exempt from carbon pricing mechanisms and, moreover, creates a set of rules that can be used immediately as a lever and generator of genuine change across the entire maritime value chain.

Challenges of compliance

By design, compliance with the EU ETS will further ramp up regulatory challenges and environmental pressure, as well as increase costs for companies that exceed their emissions threshold. This will add complexity for owners and operators, requiring them to find the right solutions to adjust or face the significant financial risk of not meeting the requirements.

However, it is important not to dwell too much on these challenges. We should instead look at the EU ETS as a real opportunity to take a decisive leap forward for shipping’s decarbonization, as by putting a price on carbon, the system directly incentivises emissions reductions.

This will encourage companies to invest in cleaner technologies and practices, improve vessel design, optimise operational efficiencies, and explore alternative fuels, fostering innovation and supporting both the EU’s climate goals and shipping’s journey towards zero emissions.

This outlines the opportunity that regulation brings, as it forces industry players to start thinking smarter about how they can drive more sustainable operations.

The good news is, there are solutions currently available on the market that can provide data-driven insights and analytics to optimise vessel performance and reduce emissions.

By connecting multiple data points across a single interface, software can interpret data to generate thousands of recommendations to optimise voyage plans and increase earnings. Organisations can therefore better predict and forecast performance, making decisions that will optimise the voyage, vessel, bunker, costs, and emissions. This means companies will also see the financial benefits that come from optimising their operations, such as reduced fuel consumption and costs, benefitting both profit and planet.

Overcoming data fragmentation

Data will also play a pivotal role in managing EU ETS reporting, as accurate and reliable data is essential for assessing a vessel's environmental impact and progress towards sustainability. However, the maritime value chain still currently suffers from fragmentation when collecting and reporting data. Information is dispersed across the value chain, among various tech platforms, classification societies, and internal systems, leading to inefficiencies and challenges in obtaining a comprehensive view of the industry's operations.

Moreover, many companies employ single-function or in-house systems, which only address certain aspects of the emissions reporting process. As the diversity and number of data sources involved increase, so does the risk of errors in analysis and compliance.

Failing to collect and validate emissions data throughout the year will lead to significant work burdens to meet end-of-year mandatory, regulatory reporting, and voluntary reporting requirements. Shippers and operators will then be forced to navigate complex data sources to ensure accuracy and compliance, which can be time-consuming and prone to human error. This burden not only hampers operational efficiency. It also diverts resources from core activities and undermines the ability to proactively manage emissions and EU ETS compliance.

By adopting a continuous data collection and validation approach, shippers can streamline workflows, alleviate year-end pressures, ensure compliance with the EU ETS, and focus on wider sustainability strategy planning.

Maximizing progress

As shipping finds its feet, it must seize the opportunity that the EU ETS presents to ensure the adoption of long-lasting processes and tools. This will prepare us for the future, as regulations tighten further, and more rules for reaching zero emissions come into force. It is critical that solutions that bring together information across the value chain are prioritized, to deliver a comprehensive view of the industry's operations and enhance collaboration as we work together to make global trade green.

Søren Meyer is CEO of ZeroNorth. 

The opinions expressed herein are the author's and not necessarily those of The Maritime Executive.

 

Australia Bans Chinese LNG Carrier After Breakdown Blocked LNG Terminal

CESI Qingdao was banned by Australia after a mechanical breakdown and for "contravention of AMSA Detention Notice" (AMSA)

PUBLISHED JAN 3, 2024 12:50 PM BY THE MARITIME EXECUTIVE

 

The Australian Maritime Safety Agency imposed a stiff penalty on an LNG carrier after an incident that saw the vessel blocking one of the country’s largest LNG export terminals and disrupting the operations of ConocoPhillips Australia, Origin Energy, and the Australia Pacific's terminal. It was the ninth ban imposed on a vessel by the safety agency in 2023 as part of their strict enforcement of regulations to ensure the integrity of operations and the safety of crews.

The ban which runs for 180 days till late June 2024, was issued following an incident that began on November 21 when the Chinese-owned LNG tanker CESI Qingdao (95,600 dwt), a regular caller at the terminal as part of a dedicated export operation, experienced a power failure. By the end of November with the vessel stuck at the terminal for nearly a week, upstream producer Origin reported it had been forced to tune down production as several shipments were missed due to the stranded vessel blocking the terminal. 

AMSA during the incident reportedly called the vessel “unseaworthy” while discussing the situation with the Australian media. The safety agency reports it worked with the master and operator while extensive repairs to the ship were carried out. Four generators required repairs, but according to AMSA only one of which was repaired after being completely rebuilt under the supervision of the engine manufacturers. 

Australian regulators finally agreed that the laden vessel could be towed off the terminal and placed in an anchorage while repairs were being completed. Three shipments had been delayed while the terminal was blocked. The LNG carrier which operates under charter to Chinese energy company Sinopec (China Petroleum & Chemical Company) remained for three more weeks in the anchorage before finally being towed back to China for repairs, where it is due to arrive on January 12.

“The response of the master and ship managers throughout the repair process necessitated stronger compliance action from AMSA,” they said announcing the six-month ban. The order cites a “contravention of AMSA Detention Notice,” as being the reason for the long ban.

Most of the bans issued are due to poor maintenance issues that AMSA’s inspectors find during port state inspections or when reported by crewmembers. They have also acted when ship managers are found to be violating labor contracts or have a history of poor crew welfare and failing to pay crew wages. However, in one case in 2023 they banned a ship saying inspectors found “incorrect stowage of explosive substances.”

In addition to the bans on individual ships, several ship managers have had their fleets placed on notice for frequent inspections due to a history of poor performance according to AMSA. The safety agency has emphasized that it has a low tolerance for these issues in its efforts to protect crews and the Australian environment.

 

Cadeler’s Massive Wind Turbine Installation Vessel is Launched

Wind Peak was launched from the building dock on Januar 3 (Cadeler)

PUBLISHED JAN 5, 2024 9:01 PM BY THE MARITIME EXECUTIVE

 

 

The first of the two new massive wind turbine installation vessels ordered by Cadeler was floated out at the Cosco Shipyard in China. The vessels are part of the company’s future fleet and with an increased size are designed to improve the efficiency of installation projects and handle the largest wind turbines.

The first of the vessels, Wind Peak, was floated out at the Cosco yard in Qidong, China on January 3. Cadeler highlights it as a milestone after two years of engineering work and 18 months of construction. The hull of the vessel is complete and it will now begin the final phase of construction which will include installing the jacking legs and cranes. The construction timetable calls for the vessel to undergo sea trials in mid-2024 and be delivered in the third quarter of this year.

The Wind Peak rivals Jan De Nul’s massive jack up vessel Voltaire which was billed as the largest ever for the offshore wind sector. The specs for the Wind Peak highlight that she has a maximum payload of over 17,600 tons compared to the rated 16,000-ton payload for the Voltaire. Wind Peak’s cranes have a 2,600-ton lift capacity to Voltaire’s 3,200-ton capacity although the actual capacity varies based on the jack up height and other factors.

Cadeler highlights its new vessel is designed to operate at some of the most difficult sites. Its increased transit capacity with 5,600 square meters of deck space means it will make fewer transits decreasing installation time and the associated costs. It will be able to transport and install seven complete 15 MW turbine sets at a time or five sets of the newest 20-plus MW turbines.

 

Wind Peak will have the largest capacity permitting it to carry more turbines to the site at one time (Cadeler)

 

Dimensions on the vessel are a length of 531 feet (162 meters) and it can operate water depths greater than 230 feet (70 meters).  It has accommodations for 130 people and a nod to the drive to decrease emissions the vessel has a 5.4 MW battery and can also use shore power in port. It is also being built ready to adapt to future fuels.

Cosco highlights that it using new construction processes for the vessel which has permitted it to reduce dock time during construction by approximately a third. They also note the vessel’s advanced design means that it could also be used in dismantling projects and for recycling worn-out parts or installations. 

The Wind Peak will be followed by a sister ship the Wind Pace which is scheduled for delivery in the second quarter of 2025. In addition, having completed the acquisition of Eneti through the merger, Cadeler also gains the Nessie and Siren, the two large installation vessels that Eneti ordered from the shipyard that is now Hanwha Ocean in South Korea. These two vessels will also each have 5,400 square meters of deck space and a maximum crane capacity of 2,600 tons. 

The combined company says when it completes these four new builds plus two wind foundation installation vessels also ordered by Cadeler, it will have the largest dedicated wind installation fleet. The company will have six newbuilds as well as four existing vessels for a total of 10, after Eneti sold off its oldest vessels which had been acquired with the acquisition of Seajacks. 

 

Empire Wind 2 Cancels Rock Installation and Substation Contracts

Supplier contracts for the planned EmpireWind 2 project are being canceled (Equinor file photo)

PUBLISHED JAN 5, 2024 5:39 PM BY THE MARITIME EXECUTIVE

 

 

Joint venture partners BP and Equinor are continuing to take steps to back away from the planned Empire Wind 2 offshore wind farm by canceling multiple contracts. This comes after announcing that they had agreed with New York state regulators to terminate the power purchase agreement for the second phase of the planned 2 GW wind farm. Empire Wind did not take similar steps for the first phase and by all indications is still moving forward with the 800 MW portion of the project known as Empire Wind 1. 

Citing the rise in interest rates and inflation as well as supply chain challenges, the joint venture called the cancelation of the power agreement a “reset” for the project. They said they were looking to new offtake opportunities for Empire Wind 2 which calls for a 1.2 GW wind farm to be located between 15 and 30 miles southeast of Long Island.

The joint venture however has also moved to cancel several of the supply contracts for the Empire Wind 2 project. In the latest development, Great Lakes Dredge & Dock Corporation reported yesterday, January 4, that it had been notified that the joint venture was canceling a portion of its rock installation contract. That follows an announcement earlier in the week from Seatrium that the joint venture canceled the contract for an offshore substation platform for Empire Wind 2.

Great Lakes Dredge & Dock highlighted the contract which was awarded in May 2022 as the first rock installation contract awarded to a U.S. company for offshore wind. Great Lakes is building a Jones Act-compliant subsea rock installation vessel for projects such as Empire Wind. The rock installation contract was won in coordination with Van Oord, which was to use the flexible fallpipe vessel Stornes to install rock before the installation of the monopile foundations. A total of 138 turbines were scheduled between the two phases of the wind farm. Great Lakes was to install rocks to protect and stabilize the monopile foundations, electrical substructures, and export cables.

The first phase of the rock installation for Empire Wind 1 will proceed in 2025, however, the second phase scheduled for 2026 for Empire Wind 2 was canceled. Great Lakes reports the termination initiates a contractually obligated termination fee payable to the consortium with Van Oord that is intended to cover lost earnings potential related to Empire Wind 2.  

Great Lakes intends to bid on future projects for its rock installation vessel. They said they will continue to pursue additional opportunities including projects internationally for 2026 and beyond.

Singapore-based engineering firm Seatrium also reported that Empire Wind has canceled the contract for the 1,250 MW offshore substation platform planned for Empire Wind 2. The order was valued at US$188 million and was due to start in June 2024. Seatrium notes that the contract had progressive payment milestones and that payment for the work performed to date has been received. In addition, they said work on the offshore substation platform for Empire Wind 1 was continuing. Work on that portion of the project started in the fourth quarter of 2023. 

Equinor and BP said they would be seeking new offtake opportunities for Empire Wind 2. New York State is currently conducting a new solicitation for renewable energy and it provided the opportunity for companies to rebid existing projects. They however are required to cancel the existing power agreements if they want to proceed to rebid the project. New York has indicated it is accelerating the process, closing the solicitation at the end of January 2024, and expects to announce results by April. The goal for the wind projects is to execute contracts by the second quarter of 2024.

Equinor, BP Cancel Offtake Deal with New York for Giant Empire Wind 2

By Charles Kennedy - Jan 03, 2024

European energy giants Equinor and BP have scrapped a deal to sell power to the state of New York from the Empire Wind 2 offshore wind farm in the Atlantic Ocean, saying the project is no longer commercially feasible. 

Citing higher inflation and borrowing costs, along with various supply chain issues, Equinor and BP said they would exit the agreement with the state of New York and would instead look for better offtake deals after the state’s regulators in October had rejected a request from BP and Equinor to seek higher rates for delivering offshore wind power, Bloomberg reports. 

In a statement on Wednesday, Equinor said the agreement “reflects changed economic circumstances on an industry-wide scale and repositions an already mature project to continue development in anticipation of new offtake opportunities.”

The 1,260-megawatt Empire Wind 2 offshore wind project has seen progress stutter recently as power offtake contracts have been canceled in a number of states due to soaring project costs that developers say do not reflect the reality. 

"Empire Wind 2 has been 'at risk' since the project developers made clear in their June 2023 petition that they would not move forward under the current contract," Timothy Fox, managing director at ClearView Energy Partners, told Reuters on Wednesday. 

Bloomberg also quoted Fox as saying that “the economies of scale just aren’t enough to help these projects amid these macroeconomic events,” adding that “all those projects were on the bubble, so it’s not surprising that Equinor and BP want to reduce some of the risk they’re facing”. 

In total, state contracts have been awarded to 17.5 gigawatts of  U.S. offshore wind projects, according to Fox, via Bloomberg. More than half of those are currently being disputed or already canceled, including the massive 2.2 gigawatts of capacity from Orsted’s Ocean Wind 1 and 2 projects in New Jersey. 

By Charles Kennedy for Oilprice.com

Rapper convicted under Russia’s anti-LGBTQ+ law for attending “nude illusion” party in just a sock

Russian rapper Vacio was sentenced to 15 days in jail.

By John Russell Saturday, January 6, 2024

VacioPhoto: Screenshot

A Russian rapper was jailed under the country’s anti-LGBTQ+ “gay propaganda” law for attending a star-studded party in Moscow late last month wearing only a sock.

As The Guardian reported last week, Nikolai Vasilyev, who performs under the stage name Vacio, attended the December 20 event at Moscow nightclub Mutabor. Thrown by Russian social media influencer Anastasia Ivleeva, the event’s theme was reportedly “nude illusion,” and guests, including many well-known Russian celebrities, attended in revealing attire.

RELATED:

LGBTQ+ Russians are “ordinary people” in new photo book working to combat rising hate in the country

“I wanted to find moments that unite all of us despite our orientation.”
Vasilyev wore sneakers and a sock covering his genitals a la the Red Hot Chili Peppers.

The party sparked outrage from Russian officials and pro-Kremlin commentators after photos and videos began appearing on social media. Critics have blasted Ivleeva and her guests for attending the event as Russia’s war with Ukraine grinds on and claim that the party violated a Russian law banning the promotion of homosexuality in any context.

According to The Guardian, Vasilyev was summoned to court within days of the party and was sentenced to 15 days in jail under the “gay propaganda” law.

Russian President Vladimir Putin first signed a law banning so-called “gay propaganda” in Russia in June 2013. The law ostensibly sought to “protect children” from any “propaganda of nontraditional sexual relationships,” as stated in the law’s text. But the law has mostly been used to silence LGBTQ+ activist organizations, events, websites, and media, as well as to break up families and harass teachers. It has been roundly condemned by the United Nations Committee on the Rights of the Child, the human rights groups Amnesty International and Human Rights Watch, as well as civil rights activists around the world.

In December 2022, Putin signed a law expanding the country’s prohibition on LGBTQ+ “propaganda.” The newer law effectively bans any public expression of LGBTQ+ life in Russia by prohibiting “any action or the spreading of any information that is considered an attempt to promote homosexuality in public, online, or in films, books or advertising,” Reuters reported.

In November, acting on the request of Putin’s Ministry of Justice, Russia’s Supreme Court declared the international gay rights movement as an “extremist organization.” The ruling has led to raids on LGBTQ+ bars and other establishments, while Russian LGBTQ+ organizations have been essentially forced underground.

According to the Washington Post, the radical Christian group Call of the People has asked the Russian prosecutor general’s office to open a criminal probe specifically to investigate “kissing men” and drug use at the December 20 event. Another Kremlin-connected group has called for a boycott of the celebrities who attended.

Facing backlash, Ivleeva and other celebrities have been forced to issue public apologies. Others have reportedly lost endorsement deals and had other events canceled.

The Sun reported that Vasilyev issued his own apology following his sentencing. “I want to say that I do not support LGBT and did not want to make any propaganda about this,” he said according to the tabloid. “I apologise for offending the feelings of other people and being a participant in such a terrible video at such a difficult time for our country.”

Men are more comfortable going to gay bars than telling other men “I love you”

While the concept of masculinity has softened over recent decades, how men relate to one another remains fraught with anxiety.

By Greg Owen Saturday, January 6, 2024

Photo: Shutterstock

A study by YouGov UK reveals a lot of men have trouble expressing their feelings, especially toward other men.

Nearly half of all men would be uncomfortable crying in front of male friends. The same goes for uttering the dreaded “I love you” to a male relative.

The version of the crudely designed calendar available in the U.S. features the wrong number of days in 2024.

Those are just two revelations from a survey among 1,982 men in Great Britain conducted last summer.

While the concept of masculinity has softened over recent decades, how men relate to one another is still fraught with anxiety over how much to reveal emotionally or how far to engage physically with other men, the study shows.

Women don’t suffer the same worry, the survey reveals.

More men generally would prefer going to a gay bar — with the risk that carries of being misidentified as gay — than saying “I love you” to another man.

At the same time, anxiety over physical contact or interaction with other men has risen, despite the respondents’ sexuality.

Not that long ago, physical interactions among men were commonplace in locker rooms and similar same-sex settings. Now the number of men who find being naked in a men’s changing room fairly or very uncomfortable is equal to those who are at ease in that setting, 49% to 49%.

The survey did find, though, that lots of men are huggers.

The study revealed a large majority of men — 81% — felt very or fairly comfortable hugging it out with a male friend, versus 17% who didn’t.

The Brits were also okay sharing a bed with a male friend if circumstances required it, like getting stranded after a missed flight: 53% professed comfort in that scenario versus 42% who didn’t.

By similar margins, men were also okay with applying sunscreen to a male friend’s back, 52% to 42%, while 7% weren’t sure how they felt about that particular possibility.

While a plurality of all men reported they’d be good going out to a gay bar, 49% to 44% — an indication of the sea change in acceptance of gay people in society — many more men would be comfortable eating out at a restaurant with a male friend, 91% to 4%.

Just don’t go too deep with your companion over dinner: 48% versus 44% find crying in front of male friends very or fairly uncomfortable.

Heating Shortages in Moscow Greater in New Housing than in Old Because Heating Networks haven’t Been Expanded, ‘Novyye Izvestiya’ Says

 

Heating Shortages in Moscow Greater in New Housing than in Old Because Heating Networks haven’t Been Expanded, ‘Novyye Izvestiya’ Says

            Staunton, Jan. 6 – The Russian media this past week has been filled with stories about the absence of heating and electricity in apartment blocks in the Moscow region. At a time of severe cold weather, tens of thousands of residents are without heat or light; but many mistakenly believe that this problem is concentrated in older housing rather than new.

            Instead, according to experts with whom Elena Petrova of Novyye Izvestiya spoke, the greatest problems are in the most recently constructed housing because officials have not been compelled to construct new infrastructure and so older networks can’t support the new burden (newizv.ru/news/2024-01-06/vopros-dnya-pochemu-podmoskovie-stalo-liderom-po-chislu-kommunalnyh-avariy-425888; cf. newizv.ru/news/2023-12-11/zamerzayut-v-novyh-domah-kak-svyazany-polomki-kotelnyh-zimoy-i-ochkovtiratelstvo-425026).

            Because so much new housing has been built in the Russian capital over the last year, the problem of not having the necessary infrastructure to ensure heat and light for residents is greater there than elsewhere in Russia where far less housing has been built and so the burden on older infrastructure is less.

            Not surprisingly, residents of these new housing units were glad to get them when they did; but they now are suffering because officials did not expand existing heating networks or build the new infrastructure that such new units required. What this likely means is that the problems with Russian housing stock are likely to increase in unexpected places.

Turkish airstrikes destroy 15 PKK terrorist targets in northern Iraq

Terrorists

PKK FIGHTERS were targeted in Hakurk, Gara, Metina, Qandil and Asos areas, says National Defense Ministry

Anadolu staff |06.01.2024 




ISTANBUL

Turkish airstrikes destroyed 15 PKK terrorist targets in northern Iraq believed to be hideouts of ringleaders, the country's National Defense Ministry said on Saturday.

Air operations were carried out in the Hakurk, Gara, Metina, Qandil, and Asos areas to “eliminate terrorist attacks against Türkiye and security forces from northern Iraq by neutralizing members of the PKK/KCK terror group and other terrorist elements and to ensure border security in line with the self-defense rights arising from Article 51 of the UN Charter,” the ministry said in a statement posted on X.

Indigenously produced munitions were used to target the terrorists, the ministry said, adding that the terrorists’ shelters, caves, and storage units were also destroyed in the airstrikes.

Turkish authorities use the term "neutralize" to imply the terrorists in question surrendered or were killed or captured.

PKK terrorists often hide out in northern Iraq to plot cross-border attacks in Türkiye.

“During this operation, every possible precaution was taken to safeguard innocent civilians, friendly elements, historical and cultural landmarks, and the environment from any harm,” it added.

In its more than 35-year terror campaign against Türkiye, the PKK — listed as a terrorist organization by Türkiye, the US, and EU — has been responsible for the deaths of more than 40,000 people, including women, children, and infants.

KURDISTAN

Kalkan: Conflict arising because of internal contradictions within capitalist modernity - PART FOUR

Duran Kalkan analyzed the internal contradictions within capitalist modernity.

ANF
NEWS DESK

Jan 5,2024

KCK Executive Council member Duran Kalkan analyzed the internal contradictions within capitalist modernity.

Part one of this interview can be read here, part two here and part three here

How can the global geopolitical developments of the past year be assessed – especially with a view to the ongoing armed conflicts? In particular, the new alignment of energy routes is currently being discussed a lot and appears to be hotly contested.

There is a conflict arising because of the internal contradictions within the system of capitalist modernity. It started in the early 90s with the Gulf War. After the US attacked Afghanistan and Iraq (following the twin tower bombings), and since 2010 with the so-called Arab Spring. Succeeding the withdrawal from Afghanistan, the war in Ukraine was launched. It is this war which has left its mark on history. The system’s internal relations, contradictions and conflicts continue. There is no change in this regard. But what is the determining aspect of 2023 in this environment of contradictions and conflicts? The Ukrainian war has not come to an end. New things happened there. It was called a war between Ukraine and Russia, but it turned out to be a war between the US and Russia over Ukraine. The US dragged NATO into this war. Russia also tried to get war support from its allies. As a result, Russia suffered in many ways. It could not fully achieve what it wanted, unlike America who gained important results. With the accession of Sweden and Finland to NATO and the prevention of European trade with Russia, the US increased its economic and military influence over Europe, making them dependent on America. It put Europe in a position of weak will. I can state this clearly, America has never been able to establish this level of influence before. This influence had developed during the so-called Cold War, but it had never reached this level.

Russia, in its own way, tried to eliminate its own surpluses with this war. Just as the Ukrainian war was intended to warrant, some parties were purged. What happened? The Russian-Chinese alliance’s attempt to open an energy route to Europe through Ukraine was sabotaged and frustrated. NATO reshaped itself on this basis and new conflicts emerged. Following the G20 summit in India, it was announced that an agreement was reached on the energy route between India, the Gulf, Israel, Cyprus and Greece. What was the reaction of the Tayyip Erdoğan administration? Firstly, the war in Karabakh. Supposedly, Azerbaijan was going to take Karabakh, then they were going to take the Zengi Strait and connect a highway to Turkey. Thus, they were planning to reconnect Central Asia to Europe overland through Turkey. The Armenian community was massacred in Karabakh, a genocide was committed. But neither Iran nor Israel allowed this to go further. Turkey's plan was thwarted. Then, the Gaza war was brought onto the agenda in order to sabotage the path that was wanted to be organized under the leadership of the USA. In fact, the opponents wanted to sabotage it by turning it into a war zone. And those who wanted to open the routes wanted to eliminate forces like Hamas that posed a threat. In other words, the interests of both sides converged in this war. A war situation emerged, which was initiated by Hamas under the guidance of Tayyip Erdoğan, and which the US and Israel expected and wanted. In other words, the Gaza war marked the end of the year. Israel burned Gaza to the ground with more than 20 thousand civilian deaths being anticipated. Ceasefires are agreed on from time to time and supposedly this is being done for captives. Causing the death of 20 thousand people in order to release 50 captives is incomprehensible and inexplicable. There are those who see this as a success. This is not the case. So, on this occasion, I respectfully commemorate the victims of this war, the civilian victims. I share the pain of the Palestinian people. I also share the pain of the Jewish civilian people. There is a war of site clearing for the construction of an energy route. Both sides are covertly fighting over the route. On this basis, this war was brought onto the agenda.

What will be the result? On one side there is Hamas and Tayyip Erdoğan… sub-rosa, it is actually Turkey that is waging the war. Turkey is more involved in the Gaza war than Hamas. The Turkish press is already conducting the war to a large extent. It’s obvious, and the intentions are clear. The Tayyip administration have already met with Iraq to make them a party to the alternative route. The global capital system will not allow this. The Jewish capital is the dominant power within the global capital. Will Israel ever accept it being excluded from such a route? They used Tayyip Erdoğan in this framework. In fact, this situation showed us why they kept Tayyip Erdoğan in power again during the May elections. All along, the plan was to use him here because no one but Tayyip Erdoğan could have led Hamas to such an attack. Formerly, the jihadist gangs were on their way to Damascus when Tayyip Erdoğan turned them back to attack Kobane. Tayyip Erdoğan’s relationship with such organizations is based on interest and the global capital system uses this relationship. So they are actually using Tayyip Erdoğan. They hired him for this. Like a provocateur. In fact, they keep him in power without him realizing it, but others are also using him for their own interests.

The Tayyip administration does not have any contradiction or conflict with the US system, the global capitalist system of modernity and imperialism. Words implying otherwise are all lies being used to deceive the people of Turkey and some foreign circles, especially the dogmatic leftists. In fact, leftists in some areas have fallen for it. They have almost gone so far as to see Tayyip Erdoğan as anti-imperialist. Those who call Tayyip Erdoğan anti-imperialist should come to Kurdistan and see the truth. Therefore, we know who is what very well. We also know what these wars mean. No one can understand the suffering of the Palestinian people more than the Kurds. No people can share a relationship of empathy more than the peoples of Palestine and Kurdistan. This has been proven by their experiences and joint struggle. It was as such yesterday, and it is as such today.

What is the result now? In other words, Tayyip Erdoğan and Hamas claim that they will defeat Israel. They say that they are creating a contradiction between the state of Israel and the US, and they are propagandizing this to the people of Turkey. This has nothing to do with reality. Just as the US established control around the Gulf during the war in 1990 by landing troops in Saudi Arabia, it has now brought its warships to the Eastern Mediterranean and established control over the route. They are trying to neutralize Hamas. This is their goal. They are inflicting this war as a way to clear the site from threats. Then they would probably create a route through Lebanon, Syria and Cyprus. China is not in contradiction with this, it is as if they are in agreement. It seems China had agreed to this route by the US when there was no Ukrainian path.

Iran is also involved, evaluations regarding US – Iran conflict have fallen into void. Therefore, one should not speak by rote. Theory does not mean repeating memorized things. Those leftists who repeat what they memorized in their youth will continue to say “Lenin“ until they die. You shouldn’t be that kind of leftist. In other words, it is necessary to be able to see and understand developments, to see change, to experience a change of thought. In this respect, there is no antagonism with Iran as before. On the contrary, there is partnership and harmony. This is why there are not many problems regarding the route about Lebanon.

We don’t know if there will be a conflict with Russia in Syria. Russia has not reacted much regarding Israel. Russia is also involved. If that is overcome, it will be Cyprus and Turkey’s turn. Turkey will once again square up with the system of capitalist modernity of which it is a part, in a way similar to the world war a hundred years ago. That looks almost certain. It will have a punishing effect on Turkey.

What effect does this have on the policy of the Turkish state?

The Silk Road is a great trade route that is thousands of years old. It used to pass through Anatolia, Mesopotamia, Iran and reach China, but that route was cut off. The Berlin, Baghdad, Basra (more precisely the Europe, India trade route) line established in the early 1900s. After the First World War was fought on this road – the route was disrupted and cut off. That route passed through Turkey. In the Second World War, fascist Hitler sought a way to keep Turkey out of war for this route. Turkish politicians say that the genius Turkish administration and rulers politically managed the situation allowing Turkey to stay out of war. This has nothing to do with reality. Turkey had been tried but it failed. The Hitler administration did not want to try again and risk losing the route. They failed in the past and they fail again in the present. Now they have frustrated Turkey’s path to Ukraine. The one Turkey wanted to develop with Azerbaijan has come to naught. In the current situation, they actually wanted to pass this road through Northern Syria. Turkey sabotaged and opposed it. The US allowed Turkey to stay Jarablus, they put troops in Afrin, they officially declared war on Syria and officially entered Iraq. When this place became a war zone, the capital did not find it stable for investment. As a result, the capitalist circles made an alliance on the current path and they have excluded Turkey. Of course, it also excludes Kurdistan in some way. But Kurds have other channels. The main thing was the exclusion of Turkey. Until now, Turkey was a bridge between Asia and Europe. Turkey was called a strategic position. Based on this, they created Turkey, the Turkish state, to keep the Middle East within the system of capitalist modernity, the nation state system. Now all these functions have disappeared. Kurdish hostility has led to this.

In other words, Tayyip Erdoğan won and stayed in power, but Turkey lost as a result. Turkey was excluded from the system. Why was it excluded? Why couldn’t this route happen? Because of the war. Because of the anti-Kurdish fascist, colonialist, genocidal mentality and politics that the AKP-MHP fascism and the Turkish state in general have been pursuing over the last hundred years. Tayyip Erdoğan’s administration has excluded Turkey from the system. They brought Turkey head-to-head with the system. It has led to the loss of its advantages within the system. In exchange for what? In exchange for his remaining in power. Therefore, Tayyip Erdoğan’s interests and Turkey’s interests are not the same. Turkish society, revolutionary democrats, everyone should see this well.

Our allies in the United Revolutionary Movement of Peoples (HBDH) did not understand this well, and they should explain it better. They should explain and show the public how Tayyip Erdoğan is leading Turkey to disaster, how its resources are drying up. Turkey is now in this situation, what will happen? Either it will settle for what it has. It will settle for being excluded and living in a weak position. If they engage in conflict, this could actually lead Turkey to internal conflict. Years ago, 10 years ago, 15 years ago, how many times did Rêber Apo [Abdullah Öcalan] evaluate and make calls. He said don’t do it. If you do this, it will lead to disaster. They will take you to disintegration. They will take everything away from you and exploit you.

We could not make the Turkish society understand, and the current administration did not believe in this and did the opposite. It actually saw its own interest in implementing the opposite. In fact, Rêber Apo’s evaluations are now being confirmed. It is no longer possible for Turkey to become effective in the system and to have a strategic position with its position as an occupying warrior in Kurdistan. Therefore, a developing Turkey can only be a democratic Turkey if it solves the Kurdish problem and recognizes Kurdish freedom. This has been clearly revealed and seen today. We have made so much effort for this, in fact, we have struggled. We have formed alliances for the democratization of Turkey, for the solution of the Kurdish question in the field of democratic politics, in the field of revolutionary struggle.

In fact, as the HBDH, we also waged a very important struggle against this. In order to prevent the AKP-MHP fascism from causing Turkey to fall into such a state of exclusion and consuming its own resources in war. But if we pay attention, it did not yield results. Our efforts were too little. We need to struggle more, we need to understand better. In other words, we need to see what the anti-Kurdish, fascist, genocidal mentality and politics of the Tayyip Erdoğan mentality has brought to Turkey, how it has caused such a crisis in Turkey, and we need to save Turkey from this mentality and politics. It is absolutely necessary to save Turkey from the Tayyip Erdoğan administration. Otherwise, this administration has nothing to offer Turkey but oppression, exploitation, exclusion and disaster. If this continues more insistently, there will be worse consequences. Everyone must come to their senses. Rêber Apo’s warnings were very important. We see and understand them very well now. Therefore, those who love Turkey should see this and oppose it absolutely.

In 2023, there was no such approach that everything would be fixed with the elections. But the election was also an important opportunity for antifascist struggle. This opportunity was partially utilized. In fact, it was evaluated well in terms of understanding, it was put forward, it was seen. By developing a new method of struggle – or precisely by broadening the current methods – anti-fascist struggle was strengthened. We did this by developing the struggle in revolutionary alliances and guerrilla warfare. Democratic politics tried to do this. Women’s and youth struggles tried to do this. Overall, an important struggle was waged. The importance of the election was also seen. But there was also this. I mean, how shall we say, were the elections always wrong? Not exactly like that, actually. How much the election was an election is debatable. There is no such thing as a fair, equal election. Wether there was even an election is debatable because those who assigned Tayyip Erdoğan to lead the international conspiracy still want to use Tayyip Erdoğan. That was made clear. The opposition tried to create some alternatives and they also created some hope with Kemal Kılıçdaroğlu’s “Six Table“, but it was the AKP-MHP fascism that best waged the Kurdish war. It was the Tayyip Erdoğan and Devlet Bahçeli administration that responded to the needs of the system to the detriment of Turkey. For this reason, internal and external circles of interest wanted to keep Tayyip Erdoğan and the AKP-MHP alliance in power and use them a little longer. As the saying goes, when crossing a bridge you don’t change horses. They did not want to change horses. They considered it inconvenient and harmful for themselves. Therefore, the end of the election was planned in advance.

How fair was the election? Whether these votes were actually taken is a matter of debate. Nobody knows. There are many who say it wasn’t like that. And that is the right thing to do. But the outcome is important. What did they do after that? They used Turkey both in Karabakh, in the Central Asia-Turkey line and in the Gaza war. They used the Tayyip Erdoğan administration in line with their own wishes, they became tools. Tayyip Erdoğan speaks against them. And everyone believes him. It has not been revealed how big a fight he has with them. Even during the Gaza war, the country with the most commercial relations to Israel is Turkey. And the children of Tayyip Erdoğan and those in the AKP administration are doing this. These have been publicly announced and exposed. Everyone must see this. Therefore, the truth of the matter is that Tayyip Erdoğan is being used. It is not very clear where else they will use Tayyip Erdoğan and what will happen. So the elections and the post-election process showed this. Tayyip Erdoğan won the election. The so-called life of the government had been extended, but Turkey was marginalized, it lost its strategic position. Turkey lost many things as a result of this. I repeat, no one should see Tayyip Erdoğan’s administration and Turkey’s interests as the same, they are opposed. If Tayyip Erdoğan wins, Turkey loses. Turkey will win only when Tayyip Erdoğan loses. The post-election process has shown this very clearly.

So what will happen and where will this situation lead? We can say that the countdown for Tayyip Erdoğan has already started. There is now a process of collapse. Will they use him for internal or external interests, we don’t know. Is there really any value left to be used? It seems not much. In that sense, Tayyip Erdoğan’s administration has no future, it is coming to an end. There is a process of dissolution and collapse. Everyone must see this. Those who say that they will make progress, do business and make gains based on the current Turkish government, AKP and MHP fascism are wrong. They will no longer be able to make gains. The dirt and rust is already showing every day. It is being revealed how much crisis and chaos this administration has created, how much dirty work it has done, from all kinds of marijuana and heroin trafficking to black money and collapse. Economic crisis, political crisis, social collapse and decay are developing under this administration. These are very clear. In that respect, the end of the road is in sight. We can say that. We don’t know exactly when and what will happen. We hope that 2024 will be the year of the total collapse of this administration. It will be the year of the collapse and defeat of fascism. This is our hope and wish. Our struggle will be on this basis. As the Kurdistan Freedom Movement, as the Democratic Forces of Turkey and as revolutionary democratic forces, we will always struggle on this basis. I can express the following. If not to accelerate this destruction, to bring it closer, to realize it if possible, that is, the other process seems to be more imminent. Because there are elections in 2024. Its results will show many things. It is obvious how difficult the current situation is for the AKP administration.

It seems that the general elections will be lost, there are also local elections but it is not easy to achieve the same level of effectiveness as in the past. On the other hand, there are also elections elsewhere. The year 2024 is also an election year for the US in terms of many things. From now, it is not clear whether such an energy route will mean everything for capitalism or whether it will be even be carried through with. If it does be constructed, will it really be able to withstand the Third World War? Or will it alleviate the crisis and chaos?

On the contrary, fascism is on the rise in Europe and America where right-wing neo-fascist movements are becoming more prominent and coming to power. They are candidates for power though they cannot become a solution to problems. On the contrary, they will deepen the contradiction and conflict. Is it possible that a solution arises from fascism? Democratization could only do that. What will really happen? It looks like 2024 will pass with some preparation, but the aftermath bears important changes. There can definitely be very serious political developments and changes in the world and in Turkey in the coming year and beyond. Of course, we will fight with all our strength to realize this in Turkey in 2024. We want everyone to see and believe this. Especially the society, intellectuals, politicians, artists, revolutionary democratic forces in Turkey really need to see this, to become conscious, to organize and to develop a common antifascist struggle on this basis. If we do it this way, we will definitely win. Everyone must believe in this. We can make 2024 the year of victory of the anti-fascist democratic revolution in Turkey. This is our goal. We will fight for this. We call on everyone to fight with this belief and attitude.

The current system of governance in Turkey should not be seen as a political system or a political change. Rêber Apo said, “The coup mechanism is working“. Everything happens on the basis of coups and provocations. Especially the current AKP-MHP fascist alliance, Tayyip Erdoğan and the ‘People’s Alliance’ administration use this in many ways. They use everything. They are trying to win the local elections over the blood of the people of Gaza. They turned it into election propaganda. They have no support for the Palestinian people or the people of Gaza. Yes, they are trying to save Hamas. Because one of the leaders of Hamas is Tayyip Erdoğan. AKP and Hamas are left in a fix. They were defeated in other areas. Now Hamas is being crushed. Then it will be AKP’s turn. Tayyip Erdoğan is already fighting for his life. Look at his demeanor, it is the demeanor of a person struggling between life and death. With a provocation, 21 thousand Gazans were killed. In order to keep Hamas alive or for Tayyip Erdoğan to win re-election, they have driven so many young people out of Turkey’s borders. Tayyip Erdoğan bought those people like they are for rent, using the money of others. They are driving those people against the Kurds and guerrillas, to destroy them. If one of them dies here in the snow during the winter, they try to turn this into election propaganda. You saw what happened in Amasya. What did they do to the CHP administration? I mean, I expressed it before, is this the way to approach the situation? If they really believed that those people were martyrs, would they have turned a martyr into a tool for election propaganda? But this is what the Tayyip Erdoğan administration, the AKP and the MHP administration have become.

The Sheikh Said issue is also a provocation. Some people say out of the blue that Hezbollah, the new ally of the AKP, wants this. Supposedly the trustee administrator of Amed is implementing this. So they are doing it themselves. Someone is cursing, someone is affirming. There is such a provocation. A very shameless provocation. AKP is at one end of this and Hezbollah is at the other. The mob called Hüda-Par is a contra. Everyone should see this. We must be very careful in this regard. Everyone must be careful. Especially the Kurdish people and patriotic circles should be very careful. They will do anything for their own interests. They can turn it into a tool, they can use it as an instrument. Since they used a historical figure like Sheikh Said, they will definitely use anything.

In this regard, especially Sheikh Said’s close circles, family circles, those who love Sheikh Said should be very careful. They had someone insult them. They made a despicable attack. Some people are trying to capitalize on the basis of the insult. Supposedly, they will get votes from Diyarbakir or from those who love him, they will win local elections. This group called Hezbollah is also doing this. These circles should be very careful. We should definitely not be a tool in this. Let’s not forget Sheikh Said, a historical figure. He is one of the vessels of the Kurdish national resistance. He cannot be used for such things, that is a despicable attitude. All Kurds, patriots, those who love Sheikh Said must take a stance, they must answer accordingly in the elections. The leaders of the Kurdish national resistance, their bloodlines cannot be used in such a way. They continue to live through the struggle for freedom, they live in the resistance of the guerrilla, they live in the struggle of our people and the Kurdish freedom movement. They constitute its historical foundation. Neither this manipulation by the collaborators nor the despicable attacks of the fascist genocidal diminish the importance of these historical figures. We have not allowed this until now, and we will not allow it in the future. We hope that those who love and admire Sheikh Said will also take such an attitude. Those who try to profit from this will be given the harshest lesson during this election process.

IRANIAN KURDISTAN

KCK: Erdoğan’s administration is responsible for the ISIS attack in Kerman

Condemning the ISIS massacre in Kerman, KCK said: “It is the Turkish state and the Tayyip Erdoğan administration that supports ISIS and directs it for its own purposes. They want the war in the Middle East to deepen.”

ANF
BEHDINAN
Friday, 5 Jan 2024, 16:41

The Co-Presidency of the KCK (Kurdistan Communities Union) Executive Council released a statement about the twin bombings that killed dozens in Iran’s southeastern city of Kerman two days ago. The heavy explosions on the fourth anniversary of the death of Iranian General Ghassem Soleimani took place along a route leading to the grave of General Qassem Soleimani, as people had gathered to mark the fourth anniversary of his death. The first blast occurred 1.5km away from General Soleimani’s burial site. The second one took place at a 2.7km distance from the site. ISIS claimed responsibility for both “suicide attacks” on Thursday.

According to the latest balance sheet announced by the state television, 89 people, including women and children, were killed in the attack. At least 12 of the dead were reported to be Afghan citizens. The victims from Kerman were buried in the "cemetery of martyrs" near the grave of Qassem Soleimani. Others will be sent to their hometowns.

In a written statement on Friday, KCK accused the Turkish state and Tayyip Erdoğan’s administration for leading ISIS to attack Kurds and other peoples in the Middle East, especially such massacres.





The statement by the KCK Co-Presidency includes the following:

“On January 3, 2024, an attack was carried out against the people who went to the cemetery to commemorate Qasem Soleimani in Kirman, Iran, and a horrible massacre took place. Dozens of people lost their lives and hundreds were injured in this attack. On behalf of our movement and our people, we commemorate the massacred people with respect and offer our condolences to all Iranian peoples, especially to the families of those who lost their lives, and we wish a speedy recovery to the wounded. We strongly condemn this massacre, which was obvious from the beginning that it was carried out with the ISIS mentality and is now stated to have been carried out by ISIS.

This attack targeted not only the peoples of Iran, but all the peoples of the Middle East and was carried out with the aim of deepening and spreading the war in the Middle East. Some of the forces that pitted Hamas and Israel against each other, but did not get the results they expected after this happened, want the conflicts in the Middle East to deepen and the war to spread throughout the region and they are working for this. These forces have been trying to bring the Iranian state into conflict with Israel and the United States for a long time. The fact that this attack was carried out in Iran and coincided with the commemoration of Qasem Soleimani and his friends reveals such a purpose and plan. With this attack, the true faces of these forces, which try to present themselves as if they are against the war in Gaza, have been exposed.

The fact that this massacre was carried out by ISIS reveals the reality aims of them and the forces behind them. ISIS was supported by the powers that wanted to deepen the war in the Middle East and attacked all peoples, especially Kurds. Now the same forces have attacked through ISIS for the same purposes. Those who stood behind ISIS before, they are the ones who stand behind ISIS today. The Kurdish Freedom Movement and the people of Kurdistan fought against the brutality and fascism of ISIS, which was unleashed on the peoples in order to deepen the war and conflict in the Middle East and to turn the Middle East into a bloodbath and graveyard. And the Kurdish Freedom Movement saved the Middle East and the world from a great scourge by defeating ISIS. Our movement and our people will continue to fight against ISIS and the forces behind it, and to stand against all attacks of ISIS. This attack is similar to the attacks against our people and revolutionary democratic groups in many places including Northern Kurdistan, Rojava and Turkey, which resulted in massacres. Just as in the Kerman attack, people were directly targeted in these attacks and hundreds of people were killed and injured.

It was the Turkish state and Tayyip Erdoğan’s administration that led ISIS to attack Kurds and other peoples in the Middle East, especially led them to carry out such massacres. It is the Turkish state and the Tayyip Erdoğan administration again today that supports ISIS and directs it for its own purposes. They want the war in the Middle East to deepen. The fact that it attacks Kurds everywhere and carries out attacks against Rojava at a level that targets the entire infrastructure and superstructure clearly reveals this fact. This must be known and understood by everyone. War with the Kurds means the deepening and spread of war in the Middle East. It is unthinkable for those who have plans for peace and non-conflict in the Middle East to be at war with the Kurds.

We strongly condemn the Kerman massacre, which was carried out brutally. We pay tribute to those who lost their lives in the attack, wish a speedy recovery to the wounded, and share the deep sorrow of the Iranian people.”