Pacific kelp forests are far older that we thought

32-million-year-old fossil holdfasts show kelp far predate animals we see in kelp forests today

Peer-Reviewed Publication

UNIVERSITY OF CALIFORNIA - BERKELEY

 

IMAGE: 

AN X-RAY RECONSTRUCTION OF A 32-MILLION-YEAR-OLD FOSSIL KELP HOLDFAST COLORED TO SHOW THE BASE (ORANGE), HOLDFAST (YELLOW) AND THE BIVALVE SHELL TO WHICH IT ATTACHED (BLUE).

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CREDIT: DULA PARKINSON/ADVANCED LIGHT SOURCE, LAWRENCE BERKELEY NATIONAL LABORATORY

The unique underwater kelp forests that line the Pacific Coast support a varied ecosystem that was thought to have evolved along with the kelp over the past 14 million years.

But a new study shows that kelp flourished off the Northwest Coast more than 32 million years ago, long before the appearance of modern groups of marine mammals, sea urchins, birds and bivalves that today call the forests home.

The much greater age of these coastal kelp forests, which today are a rich ecosystem supporting otters, sea lions, seals, and many birds, fish and crustaceans, means that they likely were a main source of food for an ancient, now-extinct mammal called a desmostylian. The hippopotamus-sized grazer is thought to be related to today's sea cows, manatees and their terrestrial relatives, the elephants.

"People initially said, “We don't think the kelps were there before 14 million years ago because the organisms associated with the modern kelp forest were not there yet,’" said paleobotanist Cindy Looy, professor of integrative biology at the University of California, Berkeley. "Now, we show the kelps were there, it's just that all the organisms that you expect to be associated with them were not. Which is not that strange, because you first need the foundation for the whole system before everything else can show up."

Evidence for the greater antiquity of kelp forests, reported this week in the journal Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, comes from newly discovered fossils of the kelp’s holdfast — the root-like part of the kelp that anchors it to rocks or rock-bound organisms on the seafloor. The stipe, or stem, attaches to the holdfast and supports the blades, which typically float in the water, thanks to air bladders.

Looy's colleague, Steffen Kiel, dated these fossilized holdfasts, which still grasp clams and envelop barnacles and snails, to 32.1 million years ago, in the middle of the Cenozoic Era, which stretches from 66 million years ago to the present. The oldest previously known kelp fossil, consisting of one air bladder and a blade similar to that of today's bull kelp, dates from 14 million years ago and is in the collection of the University of California Museum of Paleontology (UCMP).

"Our holdfasts provide good evidence for kelp being the food source for an enigmatic group of marine mammals, the desmostylia," said Kiel, lead author of the paper and a senior curator at the Swedish Museum of Natural History in Stockholm. "This is the only order of Cenozoic mammals that actually went extinct during the Cenozoic. Kelp had long been suggested as a food source for these hippo-sized marine mammals, but actual evidence was lacking. Our holdfasts indicate that kelp is a likely candidate."

According to Kiel and Looy, who is the senior author of the paper and UCMP curator of paleobotany, these early kelp forests were likely not as complex as the forests that evolved by about 14 million years ago. Fossils from the late Cenozoic along the Pacific Coast indicate an abundance of bivalves — clams, oysters and mussels — birds and sea mammals, including sirenians related to manatees and extinct, bear-like predecessors of the sea otter, called Kolponomos. Such diversity is not found in the fossil record from 32 million years ago.

"Another implication is that the fossil record has, once again, shown that the evolution of life — in this case, of kelp forests — was more complex than estimated from biological data alone," Kiel said. "The fossil record shows that numerous animals appeared in, and disappeared from, kelp forests during the past 32 million years, and that the kelp forest ecosystems that we know today have only evolved during the past few million years."

The value of fossil hunting amateurs

The fossils were discovered by James Goedert, an amateur fossil collector who has worked with Kiel in the past. When Goedert broke open four stone nodules he found along the beach near Jansen Creek on the Olympic Peninsula in Washington, he saw what looked like the holdfasts of kelp and other macroalgae common along the coast today.

Kiel, who specializes in invertebrate evolution, agreed and subsequently dated the rocks based on the ratio of strontium isotopes. He also analyzed oxygen isotope levels in the bivalve shells to determine that the holdfasts lived in slightly warmer water than today, at the upper range of temperatures found in modern kelp forests.

Looy reached out to co-author Dula Parkinson, a staff scientist with the Advanced Light Source at Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory, for help obtaining a 3D X-ray scan of one of the holdfast fossils using Synchrotron Radiation X-ray Tomographic Microscopy (SRXTM). When she reviewed the detailed X-ray slices through the fossil, she was amazed to see a barnacle, a snail, a mussel and tiny, single-celled foraminifera hidden within the holdfast, in addition to the bivalve on which it sat.

Looy noted, however, that the diversity of invertebrates found within the 32-million-year-old fossilized holdfast was not as high as would be found inside a kelp holdfast today.

"The holdfasts are definitely not as rich as they would be if you would go to a kelp ecosystem right now," Looy said. "The diversifying of organisms living in these ecosystems hadn't started yet."

Kiel and Looy plan further studies of the fossils to see what they reveal about the evolution of the kelp ecosystem in the North Pacific and how that relates to changes in the ocean-climate system.

Other co-authors of the paper are Rosemary Romero, a specialist in algae who obtained her Ph.D. from UC Berkeley in 2018 and is now an environmental scientist with the California Department of Fish and Wildlife; paleobotanist Michael Krings at Ludwig-Maximilians-Universität in Munich, Germany; and former UC Berkeley undergraduate Tony Huynh. Goedert is a research associate at the Burke Museum of Natural History and Culture at the University of Washington, Seattle.

A slice through a 32-million-year-old fossil holdfast showing the finger-like haptera overgrowing a barnacle.

CREDIT

Steffen Kiel

This timeline depicts the evolution of kelp forests and associated organisms along the Pacific Coast over the past 32 million years, along with water temperature variations. Black bars indicate members of the modern, complex kelp ecosystems — sea otters, abalone, sea urchins and, until recently, sea cows. The green bars indicate now-extincct members of early kelp beds, including desmostylians and penguin-like plotopterids.

CREDIT

Steffen Kiel and Cindy Looy

JOURNAL

Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences

DOI

10.1073/pnas.2317054121 

SUBJECT OF RESEARCH

Animals

ARTICLE TITLE

Early Oligocene kelp holdfasts and stepwise evolution of the kelp ecosystem in the North Pacific

ARTICLE PUBLICATION DATE

16-Jan-2024

 

Climate change threatens global forest carbon sequestration, study finds

Peer-Reviewed Publication

UNIVERSITY OF FLORIDA

Climate change is reshaping forests differently across the United States, according to a new analysis of U.S. Forest Service data. With rising temperatures, escalating droughts, wildfires, and disease outbreaks taking a toll on trees, researchers warn that forests across the American West are bearing the brunt of the consequences.

The study, led by UF Biology researchers J. Aaron Hogan and Jeremy W. Lichstein was published in the Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences. The study reveals a pronounced regional imbalance in forest productivity, a key barometer of forest health that gauges tree growth and biomass accumulation. Over the past two decades, the Western U.S., grappling with more severe climate change impacts, has exhibited a notable slowdown in productivity, while the Eastern U.S., experiencing milder climate effects, has seen slightly accelerated growth.

Forests play a critical role in regulating the Earth’s climate, acting as carbon sinks that sequester approximately 25% of human carbon emissions annually. However, their ability to store carbon hinges on the delicate balance between the positive and negative effects of climate change. The study, using national-scale forest inventory data, models trends from 1999 to 2020, analyzing 113,806 measurements in non-plantation forests.

“We are witnessing changes in forest functioning as forest ecosystems respond to global change drivers, such as carbon-dioxide-fertilization and climate change,” said Hogan. “It is the future balance of these drivers which will determine the functioning of forests in the coming years to decades.”

Some drivers, such as droughts and forest pathogens, have negative effects on productivity, but other drivers, such as carbon-dioxide fertilization, are predicted to have positive effects. This phenomenon suggests that increased carbon-dioxide levels enhance plant growth by increasing photosynthesis, which inspired the researchers to take a deeper look at its impact.

“The U.S. Forest Service has been monitoring the growth and survival of over a million trees across the U.S. for multiple decades,” said Lichstein. “We were interested to see if their data provided evidence for increased rates of tree growth, as predicted by the carbon-dioxide fertilization hypothesis.”

While tree growth in the Eastern U.S. aligns with expectations, the Western region shows extreme climate effects overshadowing any positive growth trends, challenging the prevailing assumption that forests’ carbon-storing ability will continue to increase.

“Our study suggests that future projections of climate and sea-level rise may be too optimistic because, in reality, ecosystems are likely to store less carbon in the future,” said Lichstein. “Less ecosystem carbon storage means more carbon in the atmosphere and therefore more warming and accelerating climate change.”

The findings also illuminate the fact that climate change is not a uniform force but rather a dynamic agent with region-specific influences. The study illustrates how the degree of climate change can push forests past a tipping point. Some forests are already approaching or surpassing climate thresholds which shift them to become sources of carbon, rather than sinks that remove carbon from the atmosphere.

“Ecosystem carbon sequestration is not guaranteed to be permanent, and it can be reversed by climate change,” said Lichstein. “This reversal is already happening in the Western U.S., and there are signs that it may also be happening in other drought-impacted regions of the world, such as the Amazon.”

It might be tempting to chalk the losses up to extreme events. But, according to the researchers, the decline in productivity in the Western U.S. cannot be attributed to increased rates of tree mortality.

“We hear a lot about wildfires in the Western U.S., which kill a lot of trees and release carbon to the atmosphere,” said Lichstein. “But our study shows that additional ecosystem carbon loss in Western forests is occurring due to declining tree growth rates.”

With trees growing slower due to adverse climate change effects, including decreased precipitation, the study implies that, even without the intensifying wildfires, the carbon sink in Western forests will continue to weaken without urgent action to reduce human greenhouse gas emissions.

“We must have healthy forests in connection with emissions reduction to restore the global carbon balance and limit climate change,” said Hogan.

The transformations observed in U.S. forests raise concerns about their future resilience and sustainability. The researchers hope their findings highlight the urgent need for governments and industry to work together to reduce greenhouse gas emissions and achieve net-zero emissions as soon as possible.

“Our results highlight the need for reduced global greenhouse gas emissions,” said Lichstein. “Without the emissions reductions that scientists have been urging for decades, forest carbon sinks will likely weaken, which will accelerate the pace of climate change.”

This study was developed with Grant Domke from the U.S. Forest Service Northern Research Station, Kai Zhu from the University of Michigan, and Dan Johnson from UF’s School of Forest, Fisheries, and Geomatics Sciences.

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JOURNAL

Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences

DOI

10.1073/pnas.2311132121 

METHOD OF RESEARCH

Data/statistical analysis

SUBJECT OF RESEARCH

Not applicable

ARTICLE TITLE

Climate change determines the sign of productivity trends in US forests

ARTICLE PUBLICATION DATE

15-Jan-2024

Astronomers produce most sensitive radio image ever of ancient star cluster

NTERNATIONAL CENTRE FOR RADIO ASTRONOMY RESEARCH

PEER-REVIEWED PUBLICATION

 

IMAGE: 

THE TEAM IDENTIFIED A NEW RADIO SOURCE (WHITE SQUARE) IN THE CENTRE OF THE CLUSTER (RED CIRCLE).

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CREDIT: CREDIT: PADUANO ET AL.

The image is of the second brightest globular cluster in the night sky—known as 47 Tucanae—and was produced by a team led by the Curtin University node of the International Centre for Radio Astronomy Research (ICRAR) in Western Australia.

The scientists also detected a previously undiscovered radio signal from the centre of the cluster.

The research was published overnight in The Astrophysical Journal.

Astronomer Dr Arash Bahramian, from ICRAR’s Curtin University node, says star clusters are an ancient relic of the early Universe.

“Globular clusters are very old, giant balls of stars that we see around the Milky Way,” he said. “They’re incredibly dense, with tens of thousands to millions of stars packed together in a sphere.

“Our image is of 47 Tucanae, one of the most massive globular clusters in the galaxy. It has over a million stars and a very bright, very dense core.”

Dr Bahramian said the ultra-sensitive image was created from more than 450 hours of observations on CSIRO’s Australia Telescope Compact Array (ATCA), on Gomeroi Country.

It is the deepest, most sensitive radio image ever compiled by any Australian radio telescope.

Dr Bahramian said 47 Tucanae can be seen with the naked eye and was first catalogued in the 1700s.

But he said imaging it in such great detail allowed astronomers to discover an incredibly faint radio signal at the centre of the cluster that had not been detected before.

Lead author Dr Alessandro Paduano, from ICRAR’s Curtin University node, said the detection of the signal was an exciting discovery and could be attributed to one of two possibilities.

“The first is that 47 Tucanae could contain a black hole with a mass somewhere between the supermassive black holes found in the centres of galaxies and the stellar black holes created by collapsed stars,” he said.

“While intermediate-mass black holes are thought to exist in globular clusters, there hasn’t been a clear detection of one yet.

“If this signal turns out to be a black hole, it would be a highly significant discovery and the first ever radio detection of one inside a cluster.”

The second possible source of the signal is a pulsar—a rotating neutron star that emits radio waves.

“A pulsar this close to a cluster centre is also a scientifically interesting discovery, as it could be used to search for a central black hole that is yet to be detected.” Dr Paduano said.

Co-author Dr Tim Galvin, a research scientist with CSIRO, said the project once again demonstrated the ongoing importance of ATCA.

“This project has stretched our software to its limits, in terms of both data management and processing, and it has been really exciting to see the wealth of science that these techniques have enabled.”

“Alessandro's research represents a culmination of years of research and technological advancements, and ATCA's ultra-deep image of 47 Tucanae represents just the beginning of the discoveries that are yet to come.”

The ultra-sensitive image produced is what researchers can expect from the SKA radio telescopes, currently being built in Australia and South Africa by the SKA Observatory (SKAO).

Once complete, the SKA telescopes will be the two largest radio telescope arrays in the world, transforming our understanding of the Universe and tackling some of the most fundamental scientific questions of our time.

Dr Bahramian said researchers are continually finding new and innovative ways to get the best out of the radio telescopes they use.

“We managed to achieve close to SKA-quality science with the current generation of radio telescopes, combining hundreds of hours of observations to reveal the faintest details,” he said.

“It gives us a glimpse of the exciting capabilities the next generation of radio telescopes will achieve when they come online.”

The technique used for the ultra-sensitive image could help future radio telescopes, such as the SKA, to detect some of the faintest objects in the Universe.JOURNALThe Astrophysical Journal

The dense ball of stars that makes up globular cluster 47 Tucanae

CREDIT

Credits: NASA, ESA, and the Hubble Heritage (STScI/AURA)-ESA/Hubble Collaboration

The discovery was made using CSIRO's Australia Telescope Compact Array

CREDIT

Credit: Alex Cherney/CSIRO

Discovery inside globular cluster 47 Tucanae (VIDEO)

John Lennon's deportation lawyer Leon Wildes dies aged 90

American lawyer Leon Wildes became part of musical history as he represented John Lennon as the former Beatle tried to get his US visas extended.


Saturday 13 January 2024 

Image:(L-R): Yoko Ono, John Lennon and attorney Leon Wildes in 1972. Pic: AP

An American lawyer who fought a years-long battle in the 1970s to prevent John Lennon from being deported from the US has died aged 90.

Leon Wildes, whose health had been declining since he suffered a series of strokes, died on Monday at Lenox Hill Hospital in Manhattan, his family said.

His name became part of musical and political history after, in 1972, he got involved in the case involving Lennon and Yoko Ono, who needed help getting their visas extended.

He eventually succeeded, becoming a hero among Beatles fans.

John Lennon in New York in 1968. Pic: Ap

'No idea who they are'


Mr Wildes agreed to meet with the couple at the Manhattan offices of Apple Records, the label founded by the Beatles in the late 1960s.

But he confessed to an old law school classmate, Alan Kahn, that he didn't know Lennon and his artist wife.

"I have no idea who these people are," he said.

The Beatles on the Ed Sullivan Show in New York in 1964. Pic: AP

Mr Wildes thought that preventing the deportation would be a formality - but in fact the case turned into one of the most dramatic legal struggles of the era.

The US government sought to have Lennon deported citing a bust in London in 1968, when the former Beatle pleaded guilty to possession of "cannabis resin".

Under US law at the time, non-residents faced deportation if "convicted of any law or regulation relating to the illicit possession" of narcotic drugs or marijuana.

Nixon's fears

But government files later suggested that in fact then President Richard Nixon feared the influence that Lennon and Ono - who opposed the Vietnam War and backed efforts to defeat him - might have in the 1972 election, especially on the young voters.

With musicians and other artists urging the government to let Lennon stay, Mr Wildes managed to get the deportation delayed and ultimately revoked.

He first found a loophole in the immigration drug law and eventually, amid the Watergate scandal and Mr Nixon's resignation, managed to get an order in October 1975 that reversed the deportation order.

John Lennon and Yoko Ono at the Cannes Film Festival in 1971 Pic: AP

Lennon was shot and killed by Mark Chapman in New York City in 1980.

Mr Wildes remained close to Yoko, and even attended some Beatles conventions, recalling later how "dozens of people came up, shook my hand and thanked me for what I had done for John Lennon".

"And I learned from these wonderful people that it is really something to marvel about and to enjoy this beautiful music of the Beatles."

A look at AUKUS – The Indo-Pacific quasi-alliance

ANALYSIS
A look at AUKUS – The Indo-Pacific quasi-alliance
By J. Vitor Tossini
- January 13, 2024


AUKUS is a tripartite security initiative of the United States, the UK, and Australia that seeks to reinforce its members’ interests and position in the Indo-Pacific.

The message is threefold.Firstly, the United States is deeply committed to the region despite its setbacks in the Middle East, and the pivot to the Indo-Pacific is marching on.
Secondly, the UK is putting some substance into Global Britain and remains a European actor not locked to Europe, capable of pursuing its interests beyond its immediate strategic neighbourhood.
Thirdly, Australia has chosen to deepen its traditionally close ties with the United States and the UK due to an increased sense of isolation and years of strained diplomatic and commercial with China.

Given the already special relationship among its members, the AUKUS initiative might be regarded as a quasi-alliance even if it does not aim to be one.

This article is the opinion of the author and not necessarily that of the UK Defence Journal. If you would like to submit your own article on this topic or any other, please see our submission guidelines.

On 15 September 2021, the governments of Australia, the United Kingdom and the United States jointly announced the creation of AUKUS, a new tripartite security partnership focused on the Indo-Pacific. AUKUS conception occurred as a framework for the UK and the US to provide nuclear-powered submarines to Australia.

However, beyond nuclear-powered submarines, the overreaching objective of AUKUS is to function as a dipositive for cooperation in military technology between its three members with the ultimate long-term purpose of strengthening their relative position in an increasingly competitive international system. Within this context, the partnership also covers cooperation on electronic and cyber-warfare, quantum technologies, artificial intelligence, hypersonic weapons, undersea capabilities, and innovation.



Although Washington, London and Canberra reiterated that AUKUS is focused on military capabilities, its scope even advances into information-sharing on military-related issues, complementing a field that all three members already have a high-rate quality of exchange through the intelligence-sharing alliance, the Five-Eyes, alongside Canada and New Zealand.



Since its announcement in 2021, AUKUS has been divided into two tiers or pillars covering different cooperation features among the three members. Tier I focuses on providing Australia with a fleet of nuclear-powered attack submarines (SSNs), replacing the current Australian Collin-class diesel-electric submarine with the SSN-AUKUS. The United States agreed to sell up to five of its Virginia-class to avoid capability gaps until the British-designed SSN-AUKUS enters the Royal Australian Navy service.

Hence, Tier I also includes investments in the three countries to enhance the availability of naval workforce and expand infrastructure. In Britain and Australia, those investments aim to achieve the commissioning dates of the SSN-AUKUS within the late 2030s and early 2040s timeframe. In the United States, their purpose is to provide the promised Virgina-class submarines in the early 2030s without leaving gaps within the US Navy.

Tier I also covers the agreements that will allow the Royal Navy and the US Navy to start in 2027 a rotational submarine force based in HMAS Stirling, the so-called “Submarine Rotational Force-West”. In short, Tier I includes most efforts concerning the submarines, training Australian crews in Britain, and deployment of British and American vessels to Australian naval bases.



Tier II is an emerging component that includes technology and information sharing. Tier II aims to deepen cooperation on critical capabilities, maintaining the traditional technological edge of the AUKUS members over its competitors in the Indo-Pacific. In addition, improving interoperability and joint deployment of forces are the primary rationale underlying AUKUS.

Hence, there is a need for further cooperation in the areas that will enable the future military assets of Britain, the United States and Australia to be amongst the most interchangeable and interoperable in the world. Concerning this issue, the initiative aims to improve exchange and joint research on the already mentioned hypersonic and counter-hypersonic capabilities, radars – including the Deep Space Advanced Radar Capability (DARC) programme –, artificial intelligence, and quantum technologies.



The underlying geopolitical message sent through the announcement of AUKUS is that most of the “Anglosphere” nations are reinforcing their alliance to improve their relative standing and counter the efforts of emerging threats to gain naval and, later, geostrategic dominance in the Indo-Pacific. Moreover, for Australia, the tripartite initiative is a call back to the idea of retaining close links to its “two great friends” – Britain and the United States – in times of resurgence of the notion of isolation derived from a geographically close power that might block the lanes between the country and its allies.

In Australia, the question of China’s rising influence over the nation has seen increased questioning. Since the late 2000s and early 2010s, the strategic environment surrounding Australia has changed significantly. Once, Canberra – like London’s golden era of UK-China relations (2010-2016) – rode on the wave of the growing Chinese market. By 2020, within the context of an already strained bilateral relationship, the Lowy Institute indicated that Australia had the most “China-dependent economy” of the Group of 20 (G20).



Economic dependence can quickly become a source of political leverage. Reports of interference from China’s interference in Australian politics are signals that Beijing is willing to exploit the dependence of those that do not fall in line. Thus, in part, the debate in Australia is one between establishing a balance of having China as an economic partner without significant economic dependence. In this case, AUKUS might be seen as a result of the effort of those worried about China’s increased assertive position in the region and the place of Australia within a Chinese sphere of influence.

For the United States, although not explicitly, AUKUS is a standpoint of a long-term strategy to contain China while reinforcing the position of Australia within the American security umbrella. Additionally, there are clear benefits to the American military-industrial complex through selling three to five Virginia-class submarines beginning in the early 2030s as a gap-filler before the five SSN-AUKUS enter Australian service and even closer cooperation with Australia and Britain.



For example, the American Government is investing in the industrial base to increase construction and maintenance capacity within this context. With AUKUS, the United States will have a unified submarine posture in the Indo-Pacific and an unprecedented level of interoperability with British and Australian submarines. In other words, Washington is counting on London and Canberra to play a part in the Indo-Pacific, and the tripartite initiative enhances the position of its British and Australian allies in the region. Starting in 2027, up to four American and one British submarine will be on rotational deployments to HMAS Stirling naval base near Perth. In the late 2030s and early 2040s, the RAN will be capable of supporting its two allies in acute submarine operations while performing deployments made by American and British submarines.

In Washington, AUKUS might be regarded as cementing Canberra as its most reliable regional “middle power”, a vital ally within America’s grand strategy that mostly aligns with the White House and Downing Street views. In an international system with growing numbers of middle powers claiming neutrality or gravitating toward China, AUKUS is a symbol that Australia still looks for the United States and Britain to a lesser extent. Beyond that, considering the United States’ long-term strategy in the region, the rotational deployments to Stirling are often overlooked.

The “Submarine Rotational Force-West” (SRF-West) is a near-term endeavour resulting from AUKUS that will be put into action at least a decade before Australia gets its first nuclear-powered submarine. Aiming to achieve full force in 2031, the SRF-West will considerably increase the allied undersea capabilities. If Washington deploys its four submarines from homeports outside the region, it will double the number of such vessels operated by the UK, Australia, and the United States in the area (excluding American forces based in Hawaii). Thus, AUKUS represents the fulfilment of the US Indo-Pacific Command’s objective since the 2010s to double the number of submarines operating in the area. Perth, alongside Guam and Hawaii, will be one of the pillars of the American submarine force in the Indo-Pacific. Strategically, the agreement helps forward-basing allied assets in the region, easing the logistical pressure put on the United States to operate and, if necessary, to wage war.

It is a reminder for Britain that the country is already in a new post-Brexit phase, even though it remains a recurrent topic in British politics. Beyond an apparent victory for the overused label of “Global Britain”, the British participation in the AUKUS agreement has the potential to strengthen Britain’s relative position in the Indo-Pacific through formal basing of submarines and access to naval facilities and the elevation of the Royal Australian Navy (RAN) to a force capable of complementing activities of a stretched British submarine force. Not only Global Britain would have concrete results, but also the British “tilt” to the Indo-Pacific.

It is worth mentioning that Britain’s tilt to the Indo-Pacific had been ongoing since the mid-2010s, years before it became an official government policy and that AUKUS – at least from a British perspective – builds on previous defence agreements with Australia that allowed for the transfer of military technology between the two countries, mainly the 2013 Treaty for Defence and Security Cooperation.

In addition, for the British economy, particularly its defence industry, the AUKUS is a welcomed deal, even at the expense of partners in France. Demonstrating the quality of British submarines, the chosen future submarines for Australia are the SSN-AUKUS, initially British-designed but also incorporating American technology. Replacing the Astute-class of the Royal Navy and the Collins-class of the RAN, London and Canberra will operate similar vessels in the late 2030 and early 2040s. Britain has a central role beyond the hull design of SSN-AUKUS because strategic concerns led to Australia first approaching Britain for assistance in acquiring nuclear-powered submarines.

As the British position is one of close cooperation with the Americans since the 1958 US-UK Mutual Defence Agreement, Britain directly helped to negotiate the terms that resulted in the deal. Australia knew that its interests aligned with the British and that London had the influence to approach Washington cordially, which could result in the first share of nuclear propulsion in American history to a third party since 1958.

Although a country that has experienced a relative decline, the UK still gathers assets to avoid the role of a “second-rate European nation” with European-only interests. Much of the debate on stretching the country’s resources with the “Indo-Pacific tilt” – of which AUKUS is part – is the consequence of successive governments in London, influenced by the Treasury, presuming that the Defence of the Realm is obtainable on the cheap.

Depleting the budget of the British Armed Forces through short-sighted policies, with the 2010 Defence Review as one example, has left Britain with the necessity to spend more only to achieve the already cut capability levels seen in the early 2000s. As shown through AUKUS, the British Government can put some substance into Global Britain and the tilt to the Indo-Pacific. However, remains in London the lack of willingness to advance towards a long-term geostrategic approach that recognises the end of the post-Cold War “Peace Dividend”.

Rebuilding lost or reduced capabilities must occur domestically while strengthening trusted and reliable allies abroad. Britain is doing the latter through AUKUS but acts reluctantly in strengthening its own material capabilities. While Britain designs a new generation of submarines for the Royal Navy and the RAN, the debate about the fleet size of the British submarine emerged. Navy chiefs campaigning for an increase argue that seven attack submarines are below the requirements of the increasingly competitive and assertive international arena. The idea was – for the time being – rejected by Downing Street. In short, successive governments in London have the ambition to seek a role for Britain as one of the major powers internationally, which can be seen as a reasonable assumption for any country that is part of the top six largest economies in the world. However, going global demands a willingness to adequately support hard power, which is most respected by the main challengers to Britain’s position and security.

Beyond the specific and shared geostrategic benefits that its members might have when AUKUS reaches maturity in the 2030s and 2040s, the tripartite security initiative has attracted concerns and criticism. Above all, the topics raised since September 2021 concern nuclear proliferation. Through AUKUS, Australia will access the highly enriched uranium used on the Anglo-American SSN propulsion designs. Although the Nuclear Non-proliferation Treaty does not forbid non-nuclear-weapon states to produce highly enriched uranium for naval reactor fuel, the transfer and elevation of Australia as an operator of nuclear-powered submarines have been heavily criticised. Much of the criticism on the topic is due to the lack of international safeguards on nuclear materials used for naval military purposes. Australia will be exploring a loophole that allows nuclear material to be removed from the International Atomic Energy. Until the case of Australia, critics argue, the “loophole” within the Non-Proliferation Treaty was not a severe problem due to only Nuclear-Weapon-States (NWS) operating nuclear-powered submarines and exercising the right to remove from inspection nuclear material for military purposes.

Therefore, the argument goes, AUKUS established a precedent that other NWS might explore, transferring nuclear submarine technology and material to less-than-reliable countries. Consequently, through a political discourse citing the AUKUS precedent, others could facilitate the proliferation of nuclear weapons. Thus, the question is not only about Australia seeking the status of a Nuclear-Weapon-State but others using the loophole to have access to the material and technology.

Nevertheless, Australia is not the first NWS to seek a nuclear-powered submarine capability. For decades, Brazil has expressed varying degrees of interest in that possibility. Since 2008, the South American country has been developing its “Submarine Development Programme” (also known as “PROSUB”). Considerably less ambitious than AUKUS, PROSUB has a few characteristics in common with its Indo-Pacific or Anglospheric counterpart. Firstly, it involves the development of nuclear-powered submarines by a non-nuclear weapon state. Secondly, the programme involves a nuclear-armed state, in this case, France, assisting the country in the development process. It is worth noting that Brazil is not acquiring a French propulsion design but elaborating its own based on exchanges and experience acquired from French support.

Thirdly, Brazil and Australia will be exploiting the legal loophole of the Non-Proliferation Treaty. Despite that, PROSUB has slipped under the radar of most criticism. This is the case, in part, because Brazil has reassured the international community that the reactor will use low-enriched uranium at 7% concentration and the minimum to make a nuclear weapon is 20%, although the Brazilian Navy cites the possibility of the level reaching around 15%. Therefore, Australia’s position is not unique, and AUKUS might be seen as just a step further than PROSUB.

Criticism is countered by the AUKUS leaders, who point out that when Australia, the UK, and the United States announced the initiative in 2021, the three members committed to their respective non-proliferation obligations. An additional list of commitments was laid out by AUKUS that includes the Australian commitment that it does not – and will not – seek nuclear weapons.

In March 2023, the White House issued a statement reaffirming that (1) Australia will not enrich uranium or reprocess fuel spent as part of AUKUS; (2) Australia will not produce nuclear fuel for its submarine fleet; (3) the UK and the United States aim to provide Australia with nuclear material “in complete, welded power units” that will not require refuelling during their operational lifetime; (4) nuclear material that Australia receives cannot be employed in nuclear weapons without additional chemical processing, and the country does not have and will not seek to build up such processing infrastructure; and (5) the programme will occur in line with Australia’s Comprehensive Safeguards Agreement and Additional Protocol with the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA). Washington also stated that all members maintained regular consultation with the IAEA throughout 2022, aiming to uphold the safeguards regime. Lastly, according to the United States briefing, “The Director General of the IAEA has reported to the IAEA Member States that he believes the AUKUS partners ‘are committed to ensuring the highest non-proliferation and safeguards standards are met,’ and noted his ‘satisfaction with the engagement and transparency shown by the three countries thus far.’”

Another criticism of the “quasi-alliance” is its apparent exclusivist nature. The UK, the United States, and Australia are unilaterally establishing a new vision for the Indo-Pacific. In other words, AUKUS might overshadow regional initiatives and establish a clear divide between the West and China for the decades to come. Concerning this topic, the American Government declared that the “door is open” to other partners, mentioning the desire for a future New Zealand membership. In the UK, a Parliamentary Committee argued for inviting Japan and Korea. Other possible members include Canada, which would further join the vision of AUKUS and the Five-Eyes as a unified “Anglosphere” stance in the region.

Within this context lies the critics derived from the AUKUS reverberations in Europe, mainly in France. Considering that France lost its €56 billion procurement for conventional submarines when Australia cancelled the deal and opted for a British design with American technology, the French Government considered the act “a stab in the back”. Paris recalled its ambassadors from Washington and Canberra while attempting to belittle London, stating that the ambassador in London was not recalled due to Britain’s small role in the affair, labelling the country as opportunistic and an accomplice of the other two. Despite that, cooperation with France proceeded through NATO and bilateral agreements. In June 2022, Australia agreed to pay €555 million to the French contractor as a settlement, paving the way for a normalised bilateral relationship.

In conclusion, the strategic driver of AUKUS is mainly the perceived need to reinforce a Western front against an increasingly revisionist China to secure its three members’ geopolitical interests. Although China remains Australia’s leading trading partner, it has become clear that it is willing to channel commercial dependence into political leverage. Within this context, it is possible to argue that China’s blunt outlining of its “14 Grievances” against Australia in 2020 was, from the point of view of Canberra, a glimpse of the behaviour that the Commonwealth member could expect in an Indo-Pacific under a Chinese sphere of influence. Thus, for Australia, AUKUS is the pathway to enhanced military capabilities while bringing the UK and the United States even closer to supporting Australian national security. It also tackles the recurring sense of isolation felt by successive Governments in Canberra, particularly in times of Great Power rivalry.

Concerning the United States, AUKUS is a tool to maintain an international order under American auspices. Countering China might also mean sustaining the status quo that has the United States on the top, followed by other G7 countries. Beyond that, AUKUS brings and possibly entangles two of Washington’s closest allies to the strategic landscape of the Indo-Pacific, easing the pressure on American assets deployed to the region.

For the UK, the tripartite initiative puts some substance into Global Britain and the maintenance of an open and rules-based international order. Moreover, through AUKUS, Britain continues the pursuit of the objective formulated in the 2021 Integrated Review to become “the European partner with the broadest, most integrated presence in support of mutually beneficial trade, shared security and values”. Becoming the leading European power in the Indo-Pacific means supplanting France’s position, which might be considered the main European actor in that region since the British Handover of Hong Kong in 1997. Achieving that position demands the desire of the British Government to invest in Britain’s defence capabilities and security and economic ties with regional partners.

Anglo-Australian security and defence cooperation already occurred through the Five Eyes, the Five Power Defence Arrangements, and bilateral agreements, and the AUKUS crowns Australia as a central long-term part of the British tilt to the region. Lastly, Britain’s participation means that the Atlantic and the Indo-Pacific are becoming strategically integrated within the considerations of British defence policy.

In other words, the regions East of Suez might no longer be detachable from the core interests of London in the Atlantic-Europe axis. Instead, despite the shortcomings of more than two decades of capability cuts, British policy is leaning towards binding the Atlantic and the Indo-Pacific as one, just like the United States.

Even though AUKUS does not aim to function as a “NATO of the Indo-Pacific”, Australia, the UK, and the United States might already have in practice a “quasi-alliance” in the region.

There is no Article V of the Indo-Pacific. Still, the level of entanglement of British, American, and Australian interests coupled with bilateral arrangements between the three actors leads to a geostrategic scenario that AUKUS does not only represent facets of the American pivot, Global Britain, and Australian search for renewed security, but a joint front of three different kinds of powers that seek similar objectives, sharing the same view of what kind of world order must prevail in the coming decades.

However, AUKUS offers Britain and Australia the notion that it is not a collective security system, alluding to the fact that – just as in the case of the British position on the Vietnam War – the Anglosphere in the Indo-Pacific is not binding but a quasi-alliance that accommodates its members for a relatively united position in a region that witness increased Great Power competition.



J. Vitor Tossini
Vitor is a doctoral student of International Relations at the Sao Paulo State University. He also explores British imperial and military history, and its legacies to the modern world.

UK

Minister's ultimatum to Jersey's striking teachers

BBC
12th January 2024

BBCA letter asks individual teachers to accept or reject the pay deal - with consequences either way

Jersey ministers who failed to reach a deal with a union have written to individual teachers outlining an automatic pay rise and strike ban unless they formally reject the offer.

Jersey's government offered teachers an 8% pay rise plus a one-off payment of £1,000.

NASUWT accepted the offer while the NEU refused the deal.

Deputy Elaine Millar signed a letter that invites teachers to accept the offer regardless.

Teachers would be assumed to have automatically accepted the deal unless they email the government to opt-out, it said.

Those who did not respond via email by 1 February would also agree to a ban on industrial action over pay until 2027, the letter outlined.

It follows strike action that took place in Jersey over much of last year.


In the letter received by teachers, Ms Millar thanked them for their "continued hard work" and expressed hope "to find a way to move forwards".

She said the States Employment Board did not wish to "undermine" the collective bargaining process or disrespect either union or the "autonomy of any teacher" who was a member of both or neither.

The government does not hold information about whether teachers are union members, the letter said, so it was writing to all teachers to "ascertain who has accepted the offer" in order for the uplift to start at the end of February 2024.

It added: "If you wish to accept the offer, you do not need to take any action and the pay award will be made to you.

"Acceptance of the offer by any teacher confirms that an agreement has been reached, ending the dispute."
'Uplift removed'

Those accepting the deal could not "engage in any industrial action" relating to pay until 2027.

Meanwhile, those teachers refusing the offer were asked to email the government by midday on 1 February and would "remain on 2023 pay scales until further discussions with the NEU", while being able to pursue industrial action.


Those teachers who go on strike despite failing to reject the offer would have their "uplift removed", it said.

A failure to respond, meanwhile, would be "deemed to constitute an agreement in respect of the offer", it added.


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The biggest global election year in history will hit growth stocks and the world economy, JPMorgan says




Filip De Mott
Sat, January 13, 2024 at 2:30 PM MST·3 min read



JPMorgan said 2024 is the biggest global election year in history with some of the most populous countries holding votes.


Strategists warned that the results would eventually be negative for the global economy and growth stocks.


A victory by Trump could have broader macro implications via executive orders that dismantle many of Biden's policies.

JPMorgan said 2024 is the biggest global election year in history as some of the most populous countries hold votes, with major implications for the economy and stocks.

Election results may see four trends — polarization, populism, democratic deterioration, and geo-economic fragmentation — continue to be felt, strategists said in a note Wednesday.

"Many elections will likely be a close call, with some countries recognizing that populists do not deliver and others still in thralled with them, but overall, we think these four horsemen are unlikely to fade and thus think the 2024 elections bonanza will eventually turn out as negative for global growth, depressing Growth stocks vs Value," they wrote. "We do not think they will bring back the old days of zero or negative real yields given steadily rising deficits and debt loads."

Populist regimes typically promote massive policy changes, which tend to pressure up inflation in the short run, according to the note. They also mean more borrowing and restricted trade, a downside force on global growth.

Of all the elections, JPMorgan expects the US race to carry the most weight, with President Joe Biden likely facing off again against former President Donald Trump.

"We see the US elections as being more consequential and meriting hedging more so than any other election, as a Trump victory could have broader macro implications, including through a series of executive orders that would dismantle or reverse many of Biden's policies," the note said.

Among the anticipated Trump policies is the imposition of a universal 10% tariff, expected to ignite trade wars across the board. If introduced, this could push the dollar 4%-6% up in exchange markets. At risk of sliding would be the Chinese yuan, euro, and Mexican peso.

Uncertainty over the US and other global elections will also generate a higher VIX, made worse by a potential recession. In US election years, JPMorgan strategists found that S&P 500 volatility stands 2 points above non-election years.

"Hence, investors looking to position themselves for election uncertainty and the return of populism should position for higher risk premia and higher market volatility," the note said.

In addition to populism, JPMorgan said another key theme to watch this election year is the continued erosion of "democracy metrics," which have consequences for markets.

The bank cited surveys from Freedom House and other independent watchdogs that show a decline in democracy and global freedom has been a trend for 17 years.

"Weaker governance creates higher volatility and lower multiples, and we find that, after a democracy downgrade, equity returns have, on average, been 5% lower over a 10yr period than in countries that were upgraded," JPMorgan said.

Donald Trump has to pay The New York Times $400,000 in legal fees over their story about his wealth and taxes

BYMICHAEL R. SISAK AND THE ASSOCIATED PRESS
January 13, 2024 

Former President Donald Trump speaks during a news conference, Thursday, Jan. 11, 2024, in New York.
AP PHOTO/MARY ALTAFFER

Former President Donald Trump was ordered Friday to pay nearly $400,000 in legal fees to The New York Times and three investigative reporters after he sued them unsuccessfully over a Pulitzer Prize-winning 2018 story about his family’s wealth and tax practices.

The newspaper and reporters Susanne Craig, David Barstow and Russell Buettner were dismissed from the lawsuit in May. Trump’s claim against his estranged niece, Mary Trump, that she breached a prior settlement agreement by giving tax records to the reporters is still pending.

New York Judge Robert Reed said that given the “complexity of the issues” in the case and other factors, it was reasonable that Donald Trump be forced to pay lawyers for the Times and the reporters a total of $392,638 in legal fees.

“Today’s decision shows that the state’s newly amended anti-SLAPP statute can be a powerful force for protecting press freedom,” Times spokesperson Danielle Rhoads Ha said, referring to a New York law that bars baseless lawsuits designed to silence critics. Such lawsuits are known as SLAPPs or strategic lawsuits against public participation.

“The court has sent a message to those who want to misuse the judicial system to try to silence journalists,” Rhoads Ha said.

In a separate ruling Friday, Reed denied a request by Mary Trump – now the sole defendant – that the case be put on hold while she appeals his June decision that allowed Donald Trump’s claim against her to proceed.

Mary Trump’s lawyers declined comment.

Donald Trump’s lawyer, Alina Habba, said they remain disappointed that the Times and its reporters were dropped from the case. She said they are pleased that the court has “once again affirmed the strength of our claims against Mary and is denying her attempt to avoid accountability.”

“We look forward to proceeding with our claims against her,” Habba said.

Donald Trump’s lawsuit, filed in 2021, accused the Times and its reporters of relentlessly seeking out Mary Trump as a source of information and convincing her to turn over confidential tax records. He claimed the reporters were aware her prior settlement agreement barred her from disclosing the documents, which she’d received in a dispute over family patriarch Fred Trump’s estate.

The Times’ reporting challenged Donald Trump’s claims of self-made wealth by documenting how his father, Fred Trump, had given him at least $413 million over the decades, including through tax avoidance schemes. Mary Trump identified herself in a book published in 2020 as the source of the documents.

The Times’ story said that Donald Trump and his father avoided gift and inheritance taxes by methods including setting up a sham corporation and undervaluing assets to tax authorities. The Times says its report was based on more than 100,000 pages of financial documents, including confidential tax returns for the father and his companies.


Donald Trump, who sought $100 million in damages, alleged Mary Trump, the Times and the reporters “were motivated by a personal vendetta” against him. He accused them of engaging “in an insidious plot to obtain confidential and highly sensitive records which they exploited for their own benefit.”

In dismissing the Times and its reporters from the lawsuit, Reed wrote that legal news gathering is “at the very core of protected First Amendment activity.”

Mary Trump, 58, is the daughter of Donald Trump’s brother, Fred Trump Jr., who died in 1981 at age 42. She is an outspoken critic of her uncle, whom she has regarded as “criminal, cruel and traitorous.”

In July, Mary Trump filed a counterclaim against Donald Trump under New York’s anti-SLAPP law, arguing that Donald Trump’s lawsuit was “purely retaliatory and lacking in merit” and intended to “chill her and others from criticizing him in the future.”

Hydrogen fuel cell technology shows promise for eliminating diesel engine boats


ByDr. Tim Sandle
January 12, 2024

Madrid wants to ramp up production of emissions-free fuel like green hydrogen - Copyright AFP Valentin BONTEMPS

The UK Government has recently funded research into a new energy technology for narrowboats. The HyTime project has completed real-world testing with lead partner Bramble Energy, providing a new fuel cell system together with the custom engine builder Barrus.

The new technology offers a solution to replace diesel engines in boats which could potentially save 12 tonnes of carbon dioxide annually per vessel. This fits in with UK renewable energy initiatives.

For the project, Bramble Energy has designed, developed and deployed a unique marinised fuel cell system for use within a narrowboat. This stands as a first of its kind application.

For the trial, the 57 foot long narrowboat was launched onto the water in Sheffield, Yorkshire, where it has successfully completed testing, emissions-free, using a custom marinised fuel cell system. The fuel cell system has the potential to provide the vessel with approximately 600 miles of range using the 14kg of hydrogen stored on-board, as well as additional power being supplied from solar panels on the boat’s roof to the 22kWh battery system.

The vessel was built from the ground up, has been under construction in Sheffield where Bramble engineers have created a completely new design of a hydrogen system to meet marine requirements.

The completed project demonstrates Bramble’s printed circuit board fuel cell (called the PCBFC™) technology in a real-world environment, serving as a showcase of hydrogen’s potential to decarbonise the marine sector.

The hydrogen-powered narrowboat will now begin a testing programme on UK inland waterways with data collected helping Bramble develop future marine fuel cells.

It is hoped the technology will provide a viable route for accessing the hydrogen economy as they can be manufactured in almost any size or arrangement at much greater speed and scale than traditional electrochemical stacks, at a much lower cost.

The global maritime sector contributes to 940 million tonnes of carbon dioxide per year, equating to approximately 2.5 percent of global greenhouse gases. For the UK, the Clean Maritime Plan requires new vessels to be zero-emission capable from 2025. The project’s goal was to demonstrate how the shift to a hydrogen fuel source could help the transition thanks to providing a range extender to pure battery systems, but also to remove the reliance on a charging base.

Strange weather: Last year’s climate assessment makes for grim reading


By Dr. Tim Sandle
January 13, 2024

Powerful waves driven by Cyclone Freddy crashed into the shoreline near the village of Sainte-Anne, on the French overseas island of La Reunion

 - Copyright AFP/File Charism SAYAT

Record heat in 2023 together with worsened global droughts, floods and wildfires characterized a worsening climate situation. Just as concerning, 2024 looks like being the same or even hotter. This made 2023 the Earth’s hottest year on record, showing us, alarmingly, what a typical future year with 1.5 degrees warming may look like.

In addition, relative air humidity over the global land surface in 2023 was the second driest on record after 2021, continuing a trend towards drier and more extreme conditions. These patterns have occurred amongst a continued global reliance upon fossil fuels.

The bleak assessment relating to global heating and other forms of climate change comes from the Australian National University. Academics have analyzed considerable quantities of data, drawn from thousands of ground stations and satellites orbiting the Earth, to reveal that record levels of heat across the world profoundly impacted the global water cycle in 2023. In turn, this contributed to severe storms, floods, megadroughts and bushfires.

Globally, there has been an increase in the frequency and intensity of rainfall events and river flooding. At the same time, in other regions, there are also more frequent and faster developing droughts, or so-termed ‘flash droughts’. These droughts cause crop failure and destructive wildfires in a matter of weeks or months.

The findings are outlined in a new report released this month by the Global Water Monitor Consortium and led by Australian National University researchers. The report underscores the consequences of persistent fossil fuel burning on natural disasters, water resources, biodiversity and food security.

Heat waves broke previous records in many countries, including Canada, Brazil, Spain and Thailand. A total of 77 countries experienced their highest average annual temperature in at least 45 years.

Furthermore, the lack of rainfall and high temperatures exacerbated multi-year droughts in South America, the Horn of Africa and around the Mediterranean.

The hot and dry conditions also inflicted extensive ecological damage on the world’s largest forests. Massive wildfires ravaged Canada during the northern summer, while the Amazon rainforest and rivers rapidly descended into severe drought in late 2023.

Other climatic disasters of 2023 were linked to unusually strong cyclones bringing extreme rainfall to New Zealand, Mozambique and Malawi, Myanmar, Greece, Libya and Australia. The longest-lived cyclone ever recorded battered southeastern Africa for weeks.

One of the main patterns identified relates to rising sea surface and air temperatures, caused by fossil fuel burning, and these have been intensifying the strength and rainfall intensity of monsoons, cyclones and other storm systems.

As to 2024 and beyond, the researchers are predicting warmer sea temperatures. This matches the trend of the last two decades, which have seen increased air temperatures and declining air humidity, causing increased heat stress and water requirements for people, crops and ecosystems, while intensifying droughts.