High time to rethink how we define scientific expertise and authority, argue psychologists

Peer-Reviewed Publication

THE POLISH ASSOCIATION OF SOCIAL PSYCHOLOGY

 

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A PLENARY SESSION OF THE COP21 CLIMATE CHANGE CONFERENCE (11 DECEMBER 2015, AT LEBOURGET AIRPORT IN PARIS, FRANCE).

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CREDIT: US FEDERAL GOVERNMENT

A shift away from the individual expert as a source of scientific knowledge and authority is proposed by researchers in a recent scholarly paper, published in the open-access peer-reviewed journal Social Psychological Bulletin. 

In their paper, the team of Dr Duygu Uygun Tunç (currently with University of Chicago, USA) and PhD candidate Mehmet Necip Tunç (Tilburg University, the Netherlands) propose an “extended virtue model”, where scientific expertise is rather associated with being a “reliable source of information” on certain scientific questions, instead of  credentials, such as education, affiliations, scholarly publications, awards, and grants.

This perspective allows two things: we can identify groups (rather than individuals) as the true experts, where the scientific questions can be addressed only by a collective effort; and we can evaluate expertise on the basis of actual performance rather than accolades earned in the past. 

This reform, they argue, would be the key to not only appropriately credit the scientific contribution of everyone involved in a big-team discovery, but also improve self-correction, replicability, and thereby overall integrity in science. 

“Scientific expertise has been a topic of controversy for several decades, since with claims to expertise come claims to intellectual authority and responsibility. Should I trust the experts when they say I should undergo a risky surgical operation, receive a newly researched drug, or that governments must take drastic measures to counter climate change,” the team explains.

How we define and justify expertise has implications for public trust in science. One aspect of the credibility of science is its capacity to self-correct. How we conceive scientific expertise has an impact on how we diagnose problems with self-correction, and how we chart the path towards solutions. 

In their scholarly paper, published in the open-access peer-reviewed journal Social Psychological Bulletin, the researchers examined how the research tradition in psychology conceives scientific expertise, and how this conception hampers reform efforts to increase psychology’s self-correction capacity. 

The team notes that to this day, the mainstream conception of expertise remains very individualistic, and focuses on the possession of eminent credentials or unique knowledge and skills. Instead, they point out, society and policy makers need to favour a non-individualist model, which focuses on competent and responsible epistemic performance. They also remind that large research collaborations with other scientists are becoming more and more common, especially since complex and interdisciplinary questions require multi-faceted, socially distributed cognitive tasks beyond the capacity of an individual. However, it is very difficult to credit, reward or hold accountable an expert who is not an individual in the given system of credit and incentives.

“Previous research on problems with methodology showed that a significant portion of psychology’s complex questions require research collaborations. But why do the calls for big team science not find a wider appeal, and why do the existing initiatives face significant practical challenges?” ask the researchers. Moreover, “studies on questionable research practices and breaches of scientific integrity show that the possession of relevant knowledge and skills does not necessarily predict reliable performance as an expert,” they further explain.

To address the crisis of scientific self-correction at hand, the researchers develop a novel performance-based and non-individualist concept of expertise in terms of informant reliability. In their study, they also discuss how conceiving expertise as informant reliability will help devise better science policy to increase self-correction and to better understand and counter some of the reactions to scientific reform.

They argue that psychological experts can be considered reliable informants to the extent that they provide reliable and credible information about psychological phenomena, make accurate predictions about these phenomena, develop and implement effective interventions for psychological problems, or contribute to developing more effective social policies for societal issues.

“Otherwise, they may fail to be much different from ‘astrological experts’, who possess a wealth of knowledge about astrological theories as well as significant skill in observing, recording, and interpreting the patterns and movements of celestial objects in the light of astrological theories, but simply fail to fulfil their promise as experts: predict the future events by closely observing constellations,” they say.

As preliminary suggestions for how to move forward, the researchers say that “As measures of expertise, we should thus replace metrics of eminence (e.g., h factors) with metrics geared directly toward capturing a track record of competent and responsible epistemic performance (e.g., false discovery risk indices or empirical replicability audits).”

Research article: 

Uygun Tunç, D., & Tunç, M. N. (2023). Psychology’s Reform Movement Needs a Reconceptualization of Scientific Expertise. Social Psychological Bulletin, 18, 1-32. https://doi.org/10.32872/spb.10303

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JOURNAL

Social Psychological Bulletin

10.32872/spb.10303 

ARTICLE TITLE

Psychology’s Reform Movement Needs a Reconceptualization of Scientific Expertise

UK

Next government should declare a national health and care emergency

First report of the BMJ Commission on the Future of the NHS calls for an urgent reset for the NHS with a clear long term vision and plan. The health service is as relevant today as in the 1940s, but radical change is needed, say experts

Peer-Reviewed Publication

BMJ

The government in post after the election should declare a national health and care emergency, calling on all parts of society to help improve health, care, and wellbeing, say experts in the first report of The BMJ Commission on the Future of the NHS.

 

The new government should, in effect, relaunch the NHS with a renewed long term vision and plan, they argue.

"The NHS has never seemed so embattled—and its core principle of ‘free to all at the point of use’ has never been so under threat,” said Kamran Abbasi, The BMJ’s editor in chief when he announced the Commission last year. Is it even possible to continue to provide high quality care for all, regardless of ability to pay, funded through general taxation? “We believe it is,” says the Commission.

The BMJ Commission brings together leading experts from medicine and healthcare to identify the key challenges and priorities and make recommendations aimed at ensuring that the vision of the NHS is realised

The first paper in the series examines the relevance of the founding principles of the NHS, now and for the future, and recommends critical changes in the scope, organisation, and governance of the service.

The authors, led by Lord Nigel Crisp, believe that the NHS founding principles are still appropriate today and provide a strong foundation for the future, and they urge the new government to re-commit to these principles as part of a wider set of actions. 

The NHS also needs long term thinking and stable, consistent policies, they write, and as such, they recommend establishing an independent Office for NHS Policy and Budgetary Responsibility to hold government to account for delivery of NHS plans and policies.

Additional recommendations include creating a cross-government and cross-sector health, care, and wellbeing strategy, developing better ways to connect patients, the public, and community groups with the NHS, particularly at local level, and giving immediate priority to tackling inequalities in access and outcomes, with particular attention to the disadvantage and racism suffered by ethnic groups both as patients and NHS staff.

Future papers in the series will examine and produce recommendations on how we deliver health and equity, how we should fund and pay for the health service, and how we develop a motivated, happy, well trained workforce while prioritising sustainability and producing a greener NHS. 

“The national health and care crisis we are facing requires an urgent, robust, and values based response,” say Kamran Abbasi and Commission co-chairs Victor Adebowale, Parveen Kumar, and Liam Smeeth in an editorial.“It requires new thinking and old values.”

“Above all, it requires us to recommit to the founding principles of the NHS, to put the health and wellbeing of our population first, and to revive the spirit of Aneurin Bevan and a nation that came together in the hope of creating a better, fairer, healthier world,” they conclude.

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JOURNAL

The BMJ

DOI

10.1136/bmj.q187 

METHOD OF RESEARCH

Commentary/editorial

SUBJECT OF RESEARCH

People

ARTICLE TITLE

The BMJ’s NHS commission: an emphatic recommitment to the founding principles

ARTICLE PUBLICATION DATE

31-Jan-2024

COI STATEMENT

We have read and understood BMJ policy on declaration of interests and have no relevant interests to declare.

 

Black summer bushfires in Australia wiped $2.8 billion from tourism supply chain

First input-output analysis of 2019-20 fires found 7300 jobs were lost

Peer-Reviewed Publication

UNIVERSITY OF SYDNEY

 

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LEAD AUTHOR AND PHD STUDENT VIVIENNE REINER FROM THE CENTRE FOR INTEGRATED SUSTAINABILITY ANALYSIS IN THE FACULTY OF SCIENCE AT THE UNIVERSITY OF SYDNEY.

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CREDIT: THE UNIVERSITY OF SYDNEY

A first of its kind study of the 2019-2020 ‘Black Summer’ bushfires in Australia has revealed that the tourism industry nationwide took an immediate hit of $2.8 billion in total output to its broader supply chains and almost 7300 jobs disappeared nationwide.

The fires four years ago triggered widespread tourism shutdowns in many parts of the country in the lead up to the peak Christmas and New Year season, resulting in $1.7 billion direct losses to the tourism industry, which triggered the larger drop in supply chain output.

“These results are an illustration of what can be expected in the future not only in Australia, but in other nations that are vulnerable to climate-change driven disasters,” said Vivienne Reiner, a PhD student with the Centre for Integrated Sustainability Analysis in the Faculty of Science and lead author of the study, published in Economics of Disasters and Climate Change.

“It’s important to note that our study, which measured tourism’s losses through Australian supply chains, did not quantify other economic costs, such as the supply-chain impacts of losses from agriculture or forestry, which were also substantially impacted by the fires,” she said.   

While the fires had the biggest impact on Australia’s east coast, the impact from tourism losses was national and felt across the economy, the researchers found.

“Tourism is a vital Australian industry. Before the fires that started in 2019, statistics showed that in rural areas 8 percent, or almost one in 12 people, were employed in jobs connected to the tourism industry,” Ms Reiner said. “As well, tourism is a top export, with travel services responsible for more export income than natural gas in 2018-19.”

Associate Professor Arunima Malik, a co-author who heads the Centre for Integrated Sustainability Analysis and is also affiliated with the Business School, said: “With bushfires increasing compared to other natural disasters and expected to intensify due to climate change, it is important for countries such as Australia to quantify their economic impact as part of routine practice, including supply-chain spillovers.”

Co-author Professor Manfred Lenzen, also with ISA in the School of Physics, said: “Although the losses we calculated only represented a small fraction of the nation’s economic output, Australia’s reputation as a pristine destination could become permanently damaged under global warming, with fewer people travelling within and to Australia in our peak holiday season.”

The research showed varied impact nationwide across the supply chain, including in job losses:

• New South Wales: 3171 jobs
• Victoria: 1430 jobs
• Queensland: 1499 jobs
• South Australia: 516 jobs
• Western Australia: 479 jobs
• Tasmania: 13 jobs
• Australian Capital Territory: 110 jobs
• Northern Territory: 75 jobs.

The researchers warn that the Australian economy could face further losses as the effects from climate change increase.

Ms Reiner said: “As part of the Asia Pacific – the world’s most disaster-prone region – Australian tourism has a lot to gain from climate-change mitigation. In terms of responses, studies such as ours also help indicate hotspots in supply chains where rebuilding may be required in communities and industries.

“By including the entire supply chain in our research, using input-output analysis, we calculated total output losses of $2.8 billion, which is a 61 percent increase on direct damages identified.”

RESEARCH

‘Wish you were here? The economic impact of the tourism shutdown from Australia’s 2019-20 Black summer bushfires’, Reiner, V. et al. (Economics of Disaster and Climate Change)

DOI: 10.1007/s41885-024-00142-8

DOWNLOAD research paper, video explainer and photo of Vivienne Reiner at this link.

explainer video - Vivienne Reiner explains impact from Australian Black Summer bushfires 2019-20.mp4

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=HRti44ibVd4

INTERVIEWS

Vivienne Reiner | +61 447 727 024 | vivienne.reiner@sydney.edu.au
Centre for Integrated Sustainability Analysis, School of Physics, The University of Sydney

MEDIA ENQUIRIES

Marcus Strom | +61 474 269 459 | marcus.strom@sydney.edu.au

DECLARATION

The authors declare no competing interests. Research was in part funded by the Australian Research Council and the University of Sydney. Manfred Lenzen receives funding from the Hanse-Wissenschaftkolleg in Germany through its HWK Fellowships.

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JOURNAL

Economics of Disasters and Climate Change

DOI

10.1007/s41885-024-00142-8 

METHOD OF RESEARCH

Data/statistical analysis

SUBJECT OF RESEARCH

Not applicable

ARTICLE TITLE

Wish you were here? The economic impact of the tourism shutdown from Australia’s 2019-20 Black summer bushfires

ARTICLE PUBLICATION DATE

31-Jan-2024

Manifest cruelty

DAWN
Editorial 

Published January 31, 2024


THE Israeli war on Gaza has exposed the hollow claims of many global actors regarding commitment to humanitarian values. Apparently, these values can be put in abeyance if the victims of Israeli state-sponsored terror are Palestinian civilians. As if the slaughter of over 26,000 Palestinians since Oct 7 were not enough — several Western states, led by the US, have faithfully stood by Israel as it committed these crimes, and blocked ceasefire attempts — now, many of Tel Aviv’s foreign friends are doing their best to sabotage the UN’s efforts to provide succour to the Gazans. After Israel accused 12 employees of UNRWA — the UN agency that provides education, healthcare and social services to Palestinian refugees — of complicity in the Oct 7 attacks, several states have stopped contributing funds to the body. These include the US, Britain and other European nations. The rush to judgement has come even before any proper investigation has been launched, although the UN says it has suspended the services of those accused, and has started a probe.

The move to defund UNRWA over unproven allegations is a manifestation of great cruelty on the part of states that have stopped payments. These states have no problem shipping arms and ammunition to Israel, which it uses to unleash unspeakable barbarity upon the civilians of Gaza. But the flimsiest of excuses is used to stop aid reaching a population that has been dazed by months of war and displacement. The UN secretary general has criticised the move, while Pakistan has similarly termed it “unjustifiable”. It would be naïve to expect Israel’s hard-core supporters to display any empathy for Palestinian civilians. In such circumstances, the Muslim world, which has been conspicuous by its silence during this brutal conflict, needs to step in and fill the funding gap. Particularly, those energy-rich Muslim states with billions of petrodollars in their bank accounts need to come to the aid of Gaza’s people.

Published in Dawn, January 31st, 2024

Abandoning the people of Gaza

Rafia Zakaria

DAWN

January 31, 2024 

FOR months now, Muslims across the world have seen the people of Gaza suffer unspeakable horrors. According to the United Nations, the condition is beyond horrific with few working toilets and no place to shower for the thousands crammed into makeshift camps, hospitals, schools and anything still standing. Because this situation has gone on for so long, there are new problems emerging from the overcrowding. There are outbreaks of dysentery and respiratory illness — thanks to the absence of facilities to maintain a hygienic environment and the lack of sufficient food and water to nourish the sick and aid their recovery.

Then this past weekend, matters got even worse. The US, the UK, Australia, Germany and several other countries declared that they would suspend funding to the United Nations Relief and Works Agency. This is catastrophic news for Gazans who have already faced unimaginable horrors since Oct 7. In response, the agency suspended “several” of its employees following allegations by Israel that some UNRWA staffers had a role in the Oct 7 Hamas strike.

The suspension of aid by these nations is a grotesque and heartless move. Undoubtedly, these countries are aware of what their actions are likely to do for those suffering in Gaza. The move came hours after the International Court of Justice declared that Israel should prevent a genocide against the Palestinians. This move likely annoyed Israel and its allies who have held that their massive bombing, shelling and raids of Gaza are justified because of the Oct 7 attacks. It also called into question the Israeli insistence that its actions in Gaza are justified as self-defence by ‘using any means necessary’.

Even as all this was happening, the Qataris were holding a meeting with Israel, the CIA and Egypt to come up with an elusive ceasefire. The sticking point in that negotiation is that Israel is not willing to agree to a permanent ceasefire, as it wants to be able to go back into Gaza and carry out further operations there whenever it deems it necessary.


The suspension of aid to UNRWA by a number of countries is a grotesque and heartless move.

The actions of those supporting Israel and suspending humanitarian funding are despicable. At the same time, given the length of the conflict and the desperation of the Gazans it is worth asking why Muslim humanitarian organisations have not been able to raise more funds to help the people in Gaza. It is not because there isn’t a framework to do this. Following 9/11 and the designation of many Western-based Islamic charities as implicated in terrorist funding (most of the allegations are baseless) many new Islamic charities with wider networks have emerged.

Meanwhile, a number of Muslim charities have done incredible work. One of them is Islamic Relief. The charity has been instrumental in providing aid all across the Muslim world — from the floods in Pakistan to running a camp of thousands of refugees in Yemen. Islamic Relief is collecting funds for Gaza but considering the thousands of people who have poured into the streets to protest against Israeli actions, there has not been a similar outpouring of funds being sent to the impoverished and war-affected: people have spoken with their feet but not with their wallets.

However, the people of the Muslim world can be forgiven. After all, most Muslim countries are poor and the people praying for Gaza within them are barely eking out an existence themselves. The post-Covid era has brought about joblessness, inflation and ailing economies. Predatory leaders regularly milk these publics for their own benefit, and so theirs is hardly an enviable existence.

There are, however, many rich Muslim countries. Headquartered in Saudi Arabia, the International Islamic Relief Organisation (different from the previously mentioned Islamic Relief) has made commitments to providing crisis relief at the World Humanitarian Summit in 2016. It has a budget running into tens of millions of dollars. Despite this, it is unclear what exactly this organisation is doing to help the people of Gaza. Surely, Muslim nations can pump in more funds if they really want to help the people of Gaza.

The announcement of the suspension of aid to UNRWA should have spurred an immediate me­­eting of the Organisation of Islamic Cooperation. It is not known why hardly any Muslim country has made an effort to go beyond condemnatory statements and token assistance. Watching the videos of the recent wedding of the prince of Brunei I could not help but wonder how many people could be saved in Gaza if his new princess donated just one of the incredibly large diamond necklaces she wore to the many ceremonies.

The humanitarian aid complex, created as it was following the two world wars, has always been in the hands of Western nations who deem who is ‘human’ enough to be considered a part of humanity. The issues faced by non-white populations, largely Muslims, lie on the margins of the Western imagination; sometimes these people are considered human enough to receive humanitarian assistance. When this happens, the UN can come marching in with tents and blankets, and conditions can at least be marginally improved.

The Gazans have been deemed inhuman by this logic and they are suffering the consequences of that designation at the hands of the countries who have chosen to suspend funding to UNRWA. This need not be a death knell for the Gazans, Muslim countries can make up whatever deficit there is in funding, thus making a clear statement that the persecuted, displaced people of Gaza are not available to the West to abuse at will. There is an ideological position in this — for years now, Israel has wanted the dissolution of UNRWA clearly because it is a group created especially for Palestinian refugees to provide them with assistance and services. Allowing UNRWA to be dismembered in this manner is to allow Israel and the US to say that the long-suffering Palestinians do not have the right to return.

The writer is an attorney teaching constitutional law and political philosophy.
rafia.zakaria@gmail.com
Published in Dawn, January 31st, 2024

Israel über alles

Mahir Ali 

DAWN

 January 31, 2024 

ONCE the International Court of Justice (ICJ) in The Hague endorsed the substance of South Africa’s case against Israel (albeit not in its entirety) last week, the Zionist project’s international collaborators were as desperate for a distraction as Israel. The latter promptly provided it with the allegation that a dozen UNRWA employees participated in the Oct 7 atrocities in southern Israel.

Led by the US, Germany and UK, a number of Western nations and their allies suspended their crucial funding to the United Nations Relief and Works Agency, which was set up in 1949, in the wake of the Nakba, to provide means of subsistence to Palestinian refugees. These include basic education, primary healthcare and other vital services. Its operations stretch from Gaza and East Jerusalem to the West Bank, Jordan, Lebanon and Syria.

A secondary distraction was provided by a drone attack that killed three US personnel and injured dozens in Jordan. US media reports suggest the drone wasn’t intercepted based on the suspicion that it might be ‘friendly’ (Israeli), and that the US authorities had no idea where it came from, although they showed no hesitation in blaming ‘Iranian-allied’ militias and vowing vengeance. That’s the latter-day equivalent of the much-mocked command to ‘round up the usual suspects’, but perhaps the bigger question is why there should be a US military base where Jordan’s borders meet those of Syria and Iraq — or anywhere else in the country.

‘Guilty until proved innocent’ also applies to UNRWA, which has previously been accused by Israel of preaching hatred in its schools — which, mind you, help to place the Palestinians among the best-educated Arab populations. The accusation cannot be taken seriously in a milieu where reciting the true history of Israel as a colonial-settler society is deemed antisemitic, and there is no equivalent focus on the pernicious nonsense drummed into the innocent minds of Israeli schoolchildren.


The ICJ’s interim verdict won’t make much of a difference.

UNRWA has suspended nine of its accused employees pending an internal probe, and two others are among the dozens of staff killed in Israel’s latest invasion of Gaza. It is distressing that the accusations involving 0.01pc of its 13,000 employees, whether or not true, have been deemed sufficient by so many Western states to cut off funding to one of the only organisations that may be able to avert a famine. All too many of them, meanwhile, continue to arm and diplomatically abet the perpetrators of what the ICJ deems a potential genocide.

That impression was consolidated on Sunday when 11 members of the Netanyahu cabinet attended a congregation in Jerusalem tagged the ‘Victory of Israel Conference: Settlement Brings Security’, which called for the ‘voluntary migration’ of Palestinians away from the Gaza Strip. That not only defies the ICJ’s interim injunction against incitement to genocide, but also reflects the Nazi attitude towards European Jews before the Germans opted for gas chambers.

Notwithstanding the ‘never again’ slogan of 80 years ago, the Zionists brought with them to the ‘promised land’ the Nazi concepts of lebensraum and untermenschen — territorial expansion and lesser beings, the first applying to European Jews and the second to Palestinians. The devotion to their would-be exterminators stretched to hiring one of Hitler’s leading henchmen, Otto Skorzeny, as a Mossad hitman — after he had, equally deplorably, served as military adviser to Egypt’s Gamal Abdel Nasser.

It was the Nazi regime’s expansionism, rather than the related Judeocide, that propelled the British and eventually joint Anglo-American response — alth­ou­­gh the latter was also instigated by the Soviet advance into Eastern Europe after the Red Army had turned the tide against the Wehr­m­acht. It remains to be seen how far the Israel Defence For­ces will go before any nation other than the dispersed Pales­tinians steps up to challenge the Israelis.

The resistance so far has been restricted to so-called non-state actors. Saudi Arabia remains keen on establishing formal ties with Israel. Arab and other Muslim states have vaguely backed South Africa’s case at the ICJ, but none of them has officially signed up as a party to the dispute, as Germany has disgustingly done on behalf of Israel, even as it staves off its own neo-Nazis.

Whatever the ICJ’s verdict, it is likely to come too late to halt the genocide. It may depend on how far Israel goes henceforth, but its establishment is accustomed to defying UN injunctions — as long as the pecuniary and moral assistance from the US and the rest of the West remains intact. It does not have much to worry about on that score. Its self-conception of uber alles remains intact among its acolytes, whose every action is directed towards enabling Israel to achieve its clearly genocidal and arguably Nazi-like aims.

mahir.dawn@gmail.com

Published in Dawn, January 31st, 2024

A perfect storm of factors is causing major East Coast cities to sink. What are they, and can we do anything about it?

Cities along the Atlantic coast — including New York, Boston, and Miami — are sinking into the ground.

U.S East Coast cities like New York are sinking by as much as 0.2 inches per year. 

(Image credit: Wirestock/Getty Images)

By Lydia Smith 

The idea of our major cities gradually sinking into the earth sounds like the plot of a science fiction movie. But research shows that some of the most densely populated urban areas in the United States, like New York City and Miami, are descending into the ground at an alarming pace.

This sinking of land, called subsidence, is happening faster now than in previous years. Both human-made and natural factors are to blame — from the impact of the ice age to the weight of our buildings.

In the U.S., cities along the Atlantic coast — including New York; Boston; Atlantic City, New Jersey; Jacksonville, Florida; and Miami — are sinking by as much as 0.2 inch (5 millimeters) a year, according to a study published Jan. 2 in the journal PNAS Nexus. Moreover, the land is subsiding while the sea level is rising, thereby increasing the risk of disastrous flooding in densely populated cities.

Impact of the ice age

Human activity is to blame for many of Earth's problems, but subsidence is also the result of natural activity caused by the last ice age, which lasted from around 126,000 to 11,700 years ago. The land that was under and around the ice during this period is still rising and falling in a process called glacial isostatic adjustment. This is when the pressure and weight of the ice pushed down onto the Earth, forcing the land beyond the ice’s perimeter upwards.

"Massive ice sheets blanketed North America up until about 10,000 years ago," Tom Parsons, a research geophysicist at the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) who has studied subsidence in New York City, told Live Science.

"The weight of the ice pressed down on the interior of the continent, and if you imagine pressing your finger into a balloon, the center goes down but the edges bulge — and this is what happened to the U.S. East Coast," he said. "Now that the ice has melted, the interior of the continent is rising, and the bulge along the coast is sinking."

Soft land and excessive groundwater extraction

The land on which many major cities are built is also a factor. When humans first developed settlements, proximity to the sea or rivers ensured a good water supply for drinking, food and farming. However, this means many cities are built on soft, unstable soils.

"Coastal cities are commonly built on land near rivers or estuaries, on top of sediment — often mud — that naturally compacts," Patrick Barnard, a research geologist with the USGS Pacific Coastal and Marine Science Center, told Live Science.

But although some areas may be prone to a natural amount of subsidence, human activity is accelerating it.

Meng "Matt" Wei, an associate professor at the Graduate School of Oceanography at the University of Rhode Island, said one of the biggest reasons for subsidence is excessive groundwater extraction. "It is a combination of the geological setting and a growing population that needs groundwater," he said.

When humans drain underground aquifers or extract natural gas from the ground, the empty spaces that are left behind can collapse, causing the land above to sink. And with more people living in urban areas, the problem is growing — subsidence caused by groundwater extraction is expected to affect 19% of the world's population by 2040. Even now, humans have shifted the distribution of water on Earth enough to alter the planet's tilt.

Related: Satellite images reveal just how much cities on the US East Coast are sinking

Weight of buildings

More than half of the world's population now lives in urban areas, where space is often in high demand and short supply. In cities like New York, people have created more room by building up — but these huge, weighty buildings are putting huge pressure on the land and driving subsidence.

To determine the extent of the problem, Parsons and researchers from the University of Rhode Island calculated the cumulative mass of over a million buildings in New York City. They found the total weight was 1.68 billion pounds (764 million kilograms). It shines a light on another issue: that human-made objects may already outweigh all life on Earth.

But what does this mean for people living in cities that are subsiding? Currently, the rate of sinking isn't so fast that cities will disappear below sea level anytime soon, Parsons said. "The most immediate issue is big storms and hurricanes that can force seawater into coastal cities, or heavy rainfall that overwhelms drainage systems," he said. "For every bit of sinking, it means more flood hazard."

Barnard noted that the effects of global sea level rise on cities is amplified when there is also localized subsidence - these two factors are combining to increase the risk of floods and damage to our cities. "It undermines building foundations, road beds, and transportation infrastructure, which threatens their structural integrity," he said. "It can also damage utilities like gas, water and electric lines."

Solving the problem of subsidence isn't easy. In recent years, architects and engineers have developed the concept of floating cities — like the prototype Oceanix Busan in South Korea — that adapt to sea level rise and are not at risk from the ground shifting below them.

In some areas of Asia, the subsidence has become so unsustainable that it is forcing cities to move. The Indonesian capital Jakarta —- a megacity of about 11 million people — has sunk more than 8 feet (2.5 meters) in the past 10 years, leading the government to make drastic plans to relocate the country's capital to the island of Borneo.

One of the most important ways to address subsidence is to manage water in a sustainable way, according to research. Harvesting rainwater, using treated sewage and surface water, and bringing old reservoirs back to life can help to reduce reliance on groundwater. However, tracking and monitoring the ground are also key.

"Part of the answer lies in accurately measuring the rates of subsidence so city planners and engineers can understand the risk and design — or reinforce — urban infrastructure with subsidence in mind," Barnard said.

 UK

Nurses expected to supervise ARRS staff ‘for lower pay’

Megan Ford

30 Jan 2024

Almost half of general practice nurses (GPNs) are being expected to provide education and supervision for staff employed under the Additional Roles Reimbursement Scheme (ARRS), despite, in many cases, being paid less and given fewer development opportunities, new research has revealed.

A report by the Queen’s Nursing Institute’s (QNI) International Community Nursing Observatory (ICNO) has laid bare a general practice nursing workforce feeling ‘pushed out’ and at risk of ‘disappearing’ altogether because of ARRS.

Introduced in England in 2019, the scheme currently funds the salaries of 17 roles – including nursing associates and advanced nurse practitioners, but not GPNs.

Recently, growing concerns have been raised around the impact of ARRS on GPNs, including that nurses have been devalued by the scheme and, in some cases, substituted by cheaper alternative staff such as nursing associates.

Led by director of the ICNO Professor Alison Leary and Dr Geoff Punshon, the project saw more than 500 GPNs surveyed in 2023 on how the ARRS scheme has affected them.

Inequitable pay a ‘recurring issue’

More than a third of GPNs (37%) reported that the introduction of ARRS roles had increased their workload, while 24% said their workload had decreased. A further two-thirds (67%) said their workload had not decreased since the introduction of the scheme.

Survey results also saw almost half of GPNs (49%) report being expected to provide education and supervision for ARRS staff, and more than half (51%) said ARRS colleagues were unable to practice independently in the practice without needing input or training from a GPN.

Concerningly, the report’s authors also found a ‘recurring issue’ among GPN respondents was ‘inequitable pay and conditions’.

‘GPNs were expected to support and supervise ARRS colleagues, for lower pay,’ the report said.

‘They also had less access to developmental opportunities and paid time for learning compared to ARRS colleagues.’

One nurse said ARRS roles were ‘allowed unlimited training time and get better terms and conditions compared to practice employed staff’, adding that this caused ‘disruptions in the team’.

Another added: ‘ARRS roles are paid more than GPNs and have less qualifications, little to no experience and require support from GPNs earning much less. It reinforces the message that nursing isn’t a valued profession.’

One nurse suggested the GPN role was ‘disappearing’ as a result of the situation. ‘We are not valued like [ARRS roles] are even though we do more of the work,’ they added. ‘The GPN role in a whole is undervalued, underpaid and underappreciated.’

Another GPN said it was ‘very demoralising’ having to provide supervision and training to ARRS colleagues while being paid less.

GPNs performing ‘rescue work’

Incomplete care and care left undone was also a ‘common issue’ and saw GPNs report how ARRS staff were ‘working outside of traditional scope of practice’.

GPNs are reportedly having to ‘perform rescue work’ when care is left undone by ARRS staff and ‘complete the episode or care or teach colleagues’, especially around the management of long-term conditions.

The report said GPNs had seen an ‘additional rise in care delivered as protocolised tasks, which they found unfulfilling compared to the person-centred care they aspired to’.

One GPN said care was becoming a ‘tick box exercise’ and that patients were ‘confused’ by the ARRS roles and what they do.

Care was also becoming ‘more fragmented’, they said. ‘My job satisfaction has plummeted. Not sure I want to do it anymore,’ they added.

Another GPN added: ‘The main impact that saddens me is how we have devolved patient care into a series of tasks delivered by different people in the practice setting.

‘Diabetes patients used to have one holistic appointment with a nurse once or twice a year dependent on their health status. Now they can have four or even five separate appointments.

‘Patients hate it and I hate the lack of continuity, debasement of my skills and knowledge and the fact that patients are so inconvenienced.’

In addition, one GPN described ARRS as a ‘sticking plaster over the issues that are currently being seen in general practice’.

‘Experienced GPNs are feeling pushed out and are underrepresented in implementation of these roles,’ they added.

They also argued there was ‘no clear directive on the ARRS roles’ and ‘especially’ that of nursing associates. The GPN suggested some ‘seem to be encouraged to work outside their sphere of competence’.

Other survey findings saw 29% of GPNs feeling that their nursing expertise had been ‘utilised more’ since ARRS, while 60% disagreed

In addition, just 17% said they felt their nursing role was ‘more valued’ while a significant 69% disagreed.

As reported previously by Nursing in Practice when early results were shared last year, more than three-quarters of GPNs also said they had not been consulted on the introduction of ARRS roles into their practice. Meanwhile, 12% said they had and a further 12% said they had the roles introduced before they were employed.

GPNs have experienced ‘significant disadvantage’

Report author and Professor of healthcare and workforce modelling, Professor Leary, commented that the introduction of ARRS had been ‘problematic’ for the GPN workforce.

‘ARRS appears to have impacted the workforce in several ways. This ranges from a lack of resources to support those new to primary care, expectations by others of GPNs filling a gap, and a lack of consultation regarding a major workforce change, leading to feelings of devaluation,’ she added.

‘There are significant equity issues highlighted particularly around pay and opportunity.’

Meanwhile, chief executive of the QNI, Dr Crystal Oldman added: ‘The survey shows that multiple assumptions were made about the primary care workforce and no real assessment of the impact that ARRS was likely to have.

‘This has led to the GPN workforce feeling devalued. In some cases, GPNs have experienced significant disadvantage.’

 

The report lists several recommendations:

• There should be full and meaningful workforce engagement in any major change affecting the workforce;

• Inequity of opportunity for example, development opportunities and pay inequity needs to be addressed;

• The introduction of ARRS roles appears not be based on demand but rather availability, including the availability of funding. The scope and design of roles appears to be largely unexamined. The roles appear to be implemented to fill a deficit in already established workforces rather than as an additional value-added role arising from workforce redesign. Demand modelling should take place if implementing new roles;

• The benefits of ARRS roles used to meet specific previously unmet demand were clear, but there needs to be clarity around all roles and scope of practice, particularly for those new to primary care;

• There needs to be more resourcing of teaching, supervision, and support, not only for new roles but also those transitioning to a new area of practice;

• There should be scrutiny at a regional and national level of how the ARRS impacts on the overall workforce strategy in primary care and the community healthcare workforce.

 

The report comes as a petition calling for GPNs and GPs to be added to the ARRS scheme has reached more than 10,000 signatures – meaning the government now has to respond.

Separately, concerns have been raised recently around an increasing use of nursing associates in place of GPNs because they are funding by the ARRS scheme.

Last week it also came to light that NHS England has offered funding to provide nursing associates a place on a university programme typically designed for GPNs.

Men don't just get higher wages - they expect them too: 

Male students anticipate being paid 15%

MORE than females in their first job after university, study finds

Researchers surveyed over 15,000 students about their salary expectations

 
Male students anticipated being paid 15% more than females in their first job

By SHIVALI BEST FOR MAILONLINE
PUBLISHED: 30 January 2024

The gender pay gap is well documented in Britain, with the latest figures showing that the average pay in the UK is 14.3 per cent less for women than men.

But a new study has shown that men don't just get higher wages – they expect them too.

Researchers from the University of Cologne surveyed over 15,000 students about their salary expectations after university.


Their results show that male students anticipate being paid 15 per cent more than females in their first job.

'Even prior to labor market entry women expect much lower wages than men,' the researchers wrote.

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The gender pay gap is well known in the UK, with the latest figures showing that the average pay in the UK is 14.3 per cent less for women than men. But a new study has shown that men don't just get higher wages – they expect them too (stock image)

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Throughout their careers, men (represented by the blue dotted line) expect to be paid significantly more than women (represented by the red line), the study revealed

READ MORE: Female workers still earn less than men

A report by the Office of National Statistics (ONS) published last year revealed that female workers typically earn 14.3 per cent a year less than men.

But until now, the gender differences in expected wages before entering the job market has been largely unexplored.

In their new study, the team set to rectify this by surveying 15,000 students and recent graduates.

The participants were asked about their degree, salary expectations, sociodemographic information, expectations on child-rearing and salary negotiation plans.

The results revealed that the female participants expected to earn significantly less than the male participants.

Male students said they expected to earn €40,582 (£34,679) on average in their first job out of university.



A report by the Office of National Statistics (ONS) published last year revealed that female workers typically earn 14.3 per cent a year less than men

Meanwhile, female students said they expected to be paid €34,331 (£29,337) on average – 15 per cent less than the males.

This means that the female students would need to work on average around four hours more per week in the same occupation and industry to catch up with the expected starting wages of their male peers.

Over a lifetime, this gender gap in expected wages is even more pronounced, totalling a whopping €600,000 (£512,728).

Delving deeper into the results, the researchers found that males expect to earn on average €49,000 (£41,872) after nine years of experience.

This is almost as high as the highest level of females expect to earn throughout their entire careers (€51,000 [£43,581] at the age of 50).

While the reason for this remains unclear, the researchers have several theories.

Writing in their study, published in Labour Economics, the researchers wrote: 'Our finding that females plan to be less bold compared to their male counterparts seems to be driven by anticipation of gender discrimination, as well as a preference for having children soon.

'Women also fear to be viewed as impudent and to risk a lower final wage outcome if they act boldly in wage negotiations.'

The team says the findings suggest women should be better trained in salary negotiation.

'It might be important for women to be trained in wage negotiation to ensure they do not undervalue themselves, and do not allow any anticipated gender discrimination to stop them from demanding more money, as our research suggests that bold bargaining does make a positive difference,' said Pia Pinger, lead author of the study