Saturday, February 24, 2024

'Everything has changed since Apollo': Why landing on the moon is still incredibly difficult in 2024

By Sharmila Kuthunur 
published about 5 hours ago

More than 50 years after the Apollo era, major governments and well-funded private companies still struggle with lunar landing missions. Why is landing on the moon so hard in 2024?


Japan’s Hakuto-R lander snapped this stunning picture of Earth and the lunar horizon days before it crashed onto the lunar surface in April 2023. (Image credit: ispace)

On Thursday (Feb. 22), a phone booth-sized spacecraft named Odysseus made history. Landing at the moon’s south pole at 6:23 p.m. ET, Odysseus — built by the Houston-based company Intuitive Machines — became the first U.S. lander to touch down on the moon in more than 50 years, and the first private lander to ever reach the lunar surface.

This success was a welcome break from a string of lunar failures, with five of the previous nine attempted moon landings ending poorly for various nations and private companies.

Weeks earlier, on Jan. 19, Japan's Smart Lander for Investigating the Moon (SLIM) spacecraft successfully completed the country's first moon landing — albeit ending up upside down on the lunar surface due to an engine malfunction during descent. The lopsided lander's solar cells faced the wrong direction and failed to power its instruments and communications, forcing engineers to shut it down in fear of battery discharge. (Engineers briefly restored power to the lander 10 days later, but the impending lunar night shortened SLIM’s science observations to just a few hours before it went offline again.)

Just 10 days prior to SLIM's landing, a private U.S. moon lander named Peregrine encountered many anomalies after launch, including a propellant leak that prevented the spacecraft from landing on the moon. It was ultimately rerouted to crash into Earth's atmosphere. Other lunar landing attempts made by Japan and Russia in 2023 similarly ended in catastrophic crashes, this time on the moon itself.

Government-funded space agencies of only five countries have successfully touched down on the moon: the United States, the former Soviet Union, China, India and Japan. Just one private company (Intuitive Machines) has succeeded so far, and several high-profile missions have failed due to technical glitches that led to fatal judgments of speed, altitude and orientation — a stark reminder that even after half a century since the Apollo astronauts walked on the moon, our closest celestial neighbor remains a challenging and dangerous destination.

So, what gives? Has humanity gotten worse at lunar landings? Or are we simply grappling with a new era of technological advancements, just like the teams behind the Apollo missions did?

"We did not get 'dumber' since the Apollo landings," Csaba Palotai, a professor of physics and space sciences at the Florida Institute of Technology in Melbourne, told Live Science. Technology is significantly better today; your cellphone has more computational power than computers had in the 1970s. "But since the '70s there have been no astronauts and pilots on the landers to correct what the computers can't or won't," Palotai added


Acing the technology (again)

Make no mistake: Landing on the moon is hard, with or without human pilots.

A major hurdle is the moon's virtual lack of atmosphere. The lunar atmosphere is very thin and varies with time, preventing engineers from including parachutes to slow down spacecraft, Palotai said. Instead, missions use fuel-powered propulsion systems to descend onto the moon's surface, making it challenging to slow the spacecraft from a few kilometers per second to a perfect halt.

Yet this and other lunar exploration challenges are not new.

While the Apollo program was ultimately successful in landing humans on the moon, it was the culmination of a large program that failed many times on its way to success. Early attempts by the U.S. and the Soviet Union to fly a spacecraft to the moon were riddled with failures, including post-launch explosions, malfunctions with guidance systems, and fatal errors with solar panel deployment. Even the historic Apollo 11 mission, which landed astronauts Neil Armstrong and Buzz Aldrin on the moon, was worryingly low on fuel and faced multiple unexpected alarms just before landing on the moon.

"People tend to forget about those mission failures as being part of the learning process," said Jack Burns, director of the NASA-funded Network for Exploration and Space Science at the University of Colorado Boulder. This experiential learning perch is where moon missions, especially a growing number of privately funded ones, currently are. "It's still hard to land on the moon, but far from impossible," he said.

Burns and other experts agree that just about everything has changed since the Apollo program, including the now-antiquated technology that took humans to the moon and back in the '60s and '70s. Engineers with the Apollo program had built the first computers of their time, including sensors that have since been made more powerful in a fraction of their original sizes. Much of the software and architecture customized for the Apollo program is effectively useless for space missions today.

Moreover, "that whole generation is out of the industry at this point, and a lot of that knowledge has been lost," said John Thornton, CEO of Pittsburgh-based Astrobotic Technology, which built and operated Peregrine. "We are relearning how to do this, but we're also learning it with technology that is new and different."

Half a century after humans last walked on the moon, organizations smaller than NASA — powered by a new generation of engineers — have taken on the same challenge that only governments accomplished in the past. Palotai, Thornton and Burns view the recent moon mission failures as the natural progression of a new industry.

"Personally, I'm not worried," Burns said. "It's just part of the growing pains."

Paving the way for affordable moon missions

While technological issues influence the outcome of a mission, funding determines the extent of the software and hardware testing done in advance of launch to reduce risk.

"If we had a billion dollars to do this mission, our chances of success would go way up," Thornton said of the doomed Peregrine, whose mission failure investigation is expected to take a month or two. "But we're trying to do this at a much lower cost, which means you have to try many more times before you get to that breakthrough moment of, 'OK, now we know exactly how to do it at this price point. Let's keep doing it again and again.'"

Back in the '60s and '70s, in the heat of the space race between the U.S. and the Soviet Union, the Apollo program was the crux of NASA's work, and the space agency had 10 times its current budget to do the same thing. Between 1960 and 1973, NASA spent $25.8 billion ($257 billion when adjusted for inflation) on the Apollo program and was backed by nearly 5% of the total U.S. federal budget.

Comparatively, NASA now receives less than 0.5% of the nation's overall federal spending, and that budget also funds missions to destinations beyond the moon.

"That changes everything," Thornton said. Back then, NASA was fine with developing something that cost tens of billions of dollars. In comparison, today the industry is trying to build spacecraft for about $100 million, an affordable price that's key to routine flights. This problem is fundamentally different from those of the Apollo era. "It's going to take time to learn how to do it at that price point," Thornton said.

Lowering mission costs also increases the risk of failure, at least to start, Martin Barstow, a professor of astrophysics and space science at the University of Leicester in the U.K., told Live Science. So "we shouldn't be too surprised if some of these things don't work," Barstow added.

The first commercial victory


The Odysseus spacecraft’s successful landing on Feb. 22 marked a welcome breakthrough for the commercial spaceflight industry.

The lander (nicknamed "Odie") delivered 12 payloads to the moon, including six NASA science instruments. For these, the space agency paid Intuitive Machines $118 million through its Commercial Lunar Payload Services program (CLPS), designed to award private companies contracts to send experiments to the moon rather than NASA doing it itself. (NASA moon missions can cost up to $1 billion each.)

As part of the same CLPS program, Astrobotic plans to launch its second robotic moon lander, Griffin, and a water-hunting rover this November.

Friday, February 23, 2024

 

Stunning 240 million-year-old 'Chinese dragon' fossil unveiled by scientists


A photo of the Dinocephalosaurus orientalis fossil.
A cropped photo of the Dinocephalosaurus orientalis fossil. (Image credit: National Museums Scotland)

Scientists have unveiled stunning fossils of an ancient seaborne "dragon" discovered in China.

The 240 million-year-old animal — nicknamed the "Chinese dragon" — belongs to the species Dinocephalosaurus orientalis, a reptile that used its remarkably long neck to ambush unsuspecting prey in shallow waters during the Triassic period (252 million to 201 million years ago).

The species was first found in limestone deposits in southern China in 2003, but scientists have now pieced together remains to reconstruct the full 16.8-foot (5 meters) span of the spectacular ancient carnivore for the first time.

The researchers revealed the new findings in a study published Feb. 23 in the journal Earth and Environmental Science: Transactions of the Royal Society of Edinburgh.

"It is yet one more example of the weird and wonderful world of the Triassic that continues to baffle paleontologists," Nick Fraser, keeper of natural sciences at National Museums Scotland said in a statement. "We are certain that it will capture imaginations across the globe due to its striking appearance, reminiscent of the long and snake-like, mythical Chinese Dragon." 

A full photo of dinocephalosaurus orientalis.

A full-size photo of dinocephalosaurus orientalis. (Image credit: National Museums Scotland)

The fossil reveals some of the ancient sea dragon's striking features.

First and foremost is its neck, which stretches nearly 7.7 feet (2.3 meters) and contains 32 separate vertebrae — in comparison, giraffes (as well as humans) have only seven neck vertebrae.

The snake-like shape of the dragon's articulable neck likely gave it a remarkable ability to sneak up on its prey, which it did after maneuvering into position with its flippered limbs. Some of the fish snared in the dragon's serrated teeth are still preserved inside the sea monster's belly.

The researchers note that though the strange creature may be reminiscent of the Loch Ness Monster, it is not closely related to the long-necked plesiosaurs that inspired the famous mythical creature.

"We hope that our future research will help us understand more about the evolution of this group of animals, and particularly how the elongate neck functioned," first-author Stephan Spiekman, a postdoctoral researcher based at the Stuttgart State Museum of Natural History, said in the statement.

 

Cold, dry snaps accompanied three plagues that struck the Roman Empire


The finding reinforces an idea that climate can influence the spread of infectious diseases



A painting titled “The Plague of Rome” depicts the angel of death directing fatalities during the Antonine Plague. Climate shifts may have contributed to mortality during this and two other disease outbreaks that hit the Roman Empire, researchers say. 

JULES-ÉLIE DELAUNAY, MINNEAPOLIS INSTITUTE OF ART: GIFT OF MR. AND MRS. ATHERTON BEAN

A painting titled “The Plague of Rome” depicts the angel of death directing fatalities during the Antonine Plague. The angel of death has white wings and red fabric floating around it and yields a sword in one hand. Humans suffer and decay in the alley where the painting takes place.

For those who enjoy pondering the Roman Empire’s rise and fall — you know who you are — consider the close link between ancient climate change and infectious disease outbreaks. 

Periods of increasingly cooler temperatures and rainfall declines coincided with three pandemics that struck the Roman Empire, historian Kyle Harper and colleagues report January 26 in Science Advances. Reasons for strong associations between cold, dry phases and those disease outbreaks are poorly understood. But the findings, based on climate reconstructions from around 200 B.C. to A.D. 600, help “us see that climate stress probably contributed to the spread and severity of [disease] mortality,” says Harper, of the University of Oklahoma in Norman. 


Harper has previously argued that the First Plague Pandemic (also known as the Justinianic Plague), combined with declining global temperatures to weaken the Roman Empire (SN: 5/18/20). 

The new findings reinforce an idea that climate shifts can influence the origin and spread of infectious diseases, says Princeton University historian John Haldon. But it’s unclear whether a range of factors in the ancient Roman realm, including long-distance trade networks and densely populated settlements, heightened people’s vulnerability to disease outbreaks, says Haldon, who did not participate in the new study. 

To reconstruct the ancient climate, marine palynologist Karin Zonneveld and colleagues turned to an extensive sample of fossilized dinoflagellates. These single-celled algae had been preserved in radiocarbon-dated slices from a sediment core previously extracted in southern Italy’s Gulf of Taranto.  

Dinoflagellates live in the sunlit upper part of the sea. Different species of this organism assume signature shapes in the late summer and autumn before settling on the ocean floor. Some species live only in cold waters, others only in warm waters. 

In late summer and autumn, water temperature in the Gulf of Taranto closely aligns with southern Italy’s air temperature, says Zonneveld, of the University of Bremen in Germany. Her group tracked changes in the composition of dinoflagellate species in sediment slices to estimate late summer/autumn temperatures in southern Italy during the Roman Empire.  

The team also used dinoflagellates to gauge changes in ancient rainfall. Plentiful rainfall in central and northern Italy causes rivers to discharge nutrient-rich water into the Gulf of Taranto. Dinoflagellate species known to rely on plentiful nutrients thrive under those conditions and end up on the sea floor. Other dinoflagellate species prefer nutrient-poor water. Their preservation in underwater sediment reflects stretches of scant rainfall. 

The dinoflagellate analysis revealed that warm, stable temperatures and regular rainfall occurred from around 200 B.C. to A.D. 100, Zonneveld says. That time corresponds to the Roman Warm Period, a time of political and social stability for the Roman Empire. 

Then, phases of increasingly cold and dry conditions occurred shortly before or during three pandemics: the Antonine Plague, which spread from Egypt to Europe and the British Isles in the late 160s; the Plague of Cyprian, which struck during a time of Roman political turmoil in the mid-200s; and the Justinianic Plague, which reached Italy by 543. By the late 500s, average temperatures were about 3 degrees Celsius colder than the highest averages during the Roman Warm Period. 

It’s unclear how high death rates climbed during these disease outbreaks and how they might factor into the fall of the empire. The Roman Empire’s power and influence fell dramatically by around the time of the Justinianic Plague, though the eastern half of the empire lasted until the fall of its capital in Constantinople in 1453. 

And despite providing valuable new climate information from ancient Roman times, neither Zonnefeld’s team nor anyone else can say with certainty how temperature and rainfall shifts may have aided the spread of infectious diseases, says classical archaeologist Brandon McDonald of the University of Basel in Switzerland. 

While it’s known that the Justinianic Plague was caused by the Black Death bacterium Yersinia pestis, specific disease-causing agents for the Antonine Plague and the Plague of Cyprian remain unknown, McDonald says, further muddying attempts to explain how climate may have influenced those events.  

Economic and social historian Colin Elliott notes that many infectious microbes flourish under cold, dry conditions.  

In Elliott’s new book that focuses on the Antonine Plague, Pox Romana, he argues that grain production in Italy and other parts of the Roman Empire suffered during cold years. As a result, hungry people in the Italian countryside may have migrated to cities where imported grain was available, says Elliott, of Indiana University in Bloomington. “Diseases moved with migrants, but surges of malnourished and immunologically [vulnerable] populations into cities almost certainly increased pandemic virulence as well.” 

Intriguingly, the new study also raises the possibility that cooler and drier autumns reduced malaria cases, says Ohio State University historian Kristina Sessa. The milder climate may have impaired or killed temperature-sensitive mosquitoes that regularly transmitted the dangerous disease in southern Italy.