Tuesday, March 05, 2024

 

Nigeria Tracks Down Bunker Vessel and Holds it on Oil Theft Charges

bunker vessel
Nigeria arrested the bunker vessel on charges of stealing oil (Nigerian Navy)

PUBLISHED MAR 4, 2024 2:42 PM BY THE MARITIME EXECUTIVE

 


The Nigerian Navy reports it tracked and subsequently arrested a Panama-registered bunker vessel which it is accusing of oil theft. They tracked the vessel offshore before apprehending it with 13 crewmembers aboard and brought it back to Lagos over the weekend as part of a wider operation to crackdown on oil thieves. 

The vessel the Sweet Miri (1,800 dwt) is reported to be owned by a Ghanaian according to the Nigerians but according to databases is managed out of the UAE. The vessel is 34 years old and operates in the Gulf of Guinea region.

Flag Officer Commanding the Western Naval Command, rear Admiral MB Hassan, told reporters on Saturday that the navy had been observing the bunker vessel and its activity for some time. He said the vessel had turned off its AIS signal on February 25 which raised suspicions. The Navy dispatched a gunboat to investigate and they had suspicion the vessel was smuggling oil.

The Navy dispatched a second vessel in the search for the Sweet Miri before they finally located the vessel approximately 174 nautical miles from Nigeria. It was traveling to Benin when it was apprehended. The command reported a search turned up nearly two million liters of oil and the vessel was ordered to return to Nigeria.

 

Two Nigerian gunboats were used to track the bunker vessel and bring it back to Lagos (Nigerian Navy)

 

The vessel and its crew of 13 have now been placed under arrest while the commander said other departments of the government were also free to search the ship. The crew consists of one Ghanaian and 12 Nigerians.

The seizure was part of a wider crackdown across the region on alleged oil thefts. Over the past few months, there have been several reports of smaller vessels being held on allegations of oil theft.

The Nigerians in August 2022 chased a large tanker, the Heroic Idum, which they also charged with loading stolen crude. The vessel took refuge in Equatorial Guinea but was later handed back to Nigeria which used antipiracy laws to charge the crew. A settlement was finally reached in April 2023 when the vessel’s operators agreed to a public apology and a fine but it took till June 2023 for the crew to be released.

 

Two Chinese Research Vessels Loiter at Energy-Rich Benham Rise

Haiyang Dizhi Shihao (Pakistani Navy file image)
Haiyang Dizhi Shihao (Pakistani Navy file image)

PUBLISHED MAR 4, 2024 6:27 PM BY THE MARITIME EXECUTIVE

 

The government of the Philippines is responding to the presence of two Chinese research vessels at Benham Rise, a seamount in the Philippine Sea. The area is within the Philippine EEZ and has prospects as a future source of oil and gas. 

Defense researcher and former U.S. Air Force officer Ray Powell spotted and publicized the presence of two Chinese research vessels in the Benham Rise area last week. He identified the ships as the Haiyang Dizhi Shihao and the Haiyang Dishi Liuhao, and said that they had departed Guangzhou on February 26. 

The Shihao has a history of spending time in sensitive parts of the South China Sea. The vessel was identified loitering in the Indonesian EEZ in 2021, in close proximity to a working oil rig. (Unlike some similar situations in other neighboring states, the well was successfully completed, without diplomatic confrontation.)

To monitor Chinese activity at Benham Rise, the PCG has deployed the patrol vessel BRP Gabriela Silang on a two-week voyage to the area. 

On Sunday, the Philippine Navy confirmed that the two Chinese vessels had departed the Philippine EEZ. It was not immediately possible to follow up with aerial surveillance because of foul weather, spokesman Roy Trinidad said, but another attempt was scheduled for Monday.  

Trinidad emphasized that no laws were broken, and that the research vessels were transiting the area in compliance with UNCLOS.

China protests diplomat's "flashpoint" observations

China's ambitions to seize Taiwan are the primary focus of American military planners in the Pacific, but Philippine Ambassador Jose Manuel Romualdez recently told a conference panel that the Spratly Islands are the most important area to watch. 

“The real problem and the real flashpoint, which is why I’m telling you how critical it is for us. The real flashpoint is in the West Philippine Sea,” Romualdez said. "All of these skirmishes that are happening [with China], there can be one major accident and either one of our countries, the US or the Philippines, can invoke the [mutual defense treaty] and when we do, a commitment made by the US or the commitment we made will happen, and then all hell breaks loose."

China's diplomatic corps and state media expressed outrage at Romualdez' remarks. 

"It is deplorable that the said individual, in ignorance of basic facts, again used the South China Sea issue to hype up and launch a baseless accusation and malicious smear campaign against China," Chinese Embassy in Manila spokesperson Ji Lingpeng said on Sunday. "Who are stirring up the situation in the South China Sea? Who are spreading "China threat"? Who are ganging up in small blocks?"

Despite losing an international arbitral case, China claims the vast majority of the South China Sea as its own, including a large swath of the Philippines' western exclusive economic zone. Chinese government contractors have built a series of island military bases atop reefs in the Spratly Islands, providing bases for China's maritime militia and coast guard to enforce Chinese sovereignty claims in Philippine waters. 

In 2016, the Permanent Court of Arbitration in the Hague ruled that China's excessive maritime claims are not consistent with international law. China refused to participate in the case and has ignored the outcome. 

CRIMINAL CAPITALI$M

Gunvor Pays More Than $700M in U.S. and Switzerland Settling Bribery Cases

bribery
The charges of bribery stem from 2009 to 2022 reaching Ecuador as well as Congo-Brazzaville and Cote d'Ivoire

PUBLISHED MAR 4, 2024 5:16 PM BY THE MARITIME EXECUTIVE

 


Swiss-based international commodities trading company Gunvor, which says it focuses on logistics solutions that safely and efficiently move commodities, has settled a long-running and complex bribery case with U.S. and Swiss regulators. The company will pay more than $661 million in the United States as part of a guilty plea and $98 million to Swiss authorities while it works to resolve additional investigations in Ecuador and Switzerland.

The company emphasized in announcing its plea agreement with the U.S. Justice Department and guilty plea which was entered in federal court in New York on March 1, that it had cooperated with the investigations and taken extensive steps to enhance its internal controls. The U.S. charged the company with violations of the Foreign Corrupt Practices Act saying there had been a wide-reaching conspiracy to violate the anti-bribery provisions.

“Over nearly a decade, Gunvor representatives bribed high-level government officials at Ecuador’s state-owned oil company to enter into business transactions with other state-owned entities that ultimately benefited Gunvor. As a result of this complex bribery scheme, Gunvor obtained hundreds of millions of dollars in illicit profits,” said Acting Senior Counselor Brent S. Wible of the U.S. Justice Department’s Criminal Division.

The company agreed to pay a fine of nearly $375 million and to forfeit an additional $287 million to the U.S. Under the terms of the agreement, up to half the fine will be credited against the resolution of parallel matters yet to be completed in Ecuador and Switzerland. In addition, the company also agreed with Switzerland to pay an additional approximately $98 million to resolve yet another investigation into Gunvor’s previous misconduct.

“As a company, Gunvor made mistakes at the time, for which we are sorry and that we have worked diligently to fix,” said Gunvor Group Chairman, Torbjörn Törnqvist. “Today, Gunvor upholds an industry-leading compliance program that we are committed to continuously enhance. Corruption has no place in our company and will never be tolerated.”

Gunvor highlighted that the investigations centered around activities that it believes began in 2011, acknowledging its compliance program had shortcomings that “allowed for corrupt activities.” The company contends that its compliance practices were improved over time and that in 2020 it helped them to identify concerns and suspend and later terminate its agents in Ecuador before it learned of the U.S. investigation. It also identified misconduct in Congo-Brazzaville that was resolved with the Swiss authorities in 2019.

In the U.S. court filing the company admits between 2012 and 2020 more than $97 million was paid to intermediaries knowing that some of the money would be used to bribe Ecuadorean officials. The monies were routed through U.S. banks to front companies in Panama and the British Virgin Islands and front companies for Gunvor won oil-backed loan contracts with Petroecuador without competitive bids. The company also received confidential information from Petroecuador. 

The U.S. Department of Justice acknowledges that the fines were reduced in part because of the company’s cooperation and its remedial measures. The department also considered the 2019 settlement with Switzerland which was for a parallel corrupt scheme to bribe officials in Congo-Brazzaville and Cote d’Ivoire to secure oil contracts. That scheme was believed to run between 2009 and 2012. 

The U.S. also previously secured convictions of four individuals, including two consultants and one employee each of Gunvor and Petroecuador. Between 2020 and 2022, the U.S. obtained guilty pleas from the individuals on charges related to money laundering. The Cayman Islands, Colombia, Panama, Portugal, and Singapore also aided in the prosecution of the cases.

 

Can Marine Protected Areas Be Shielded From Climate Change?

Pixabay
Pixabay / public domain

PUBLISHED MAR 3, 2024 9:41 PM BY CHINA DIALOGUE OCEAN

 

 

[By Regina Lam]

A marine protected area (MPA) may sound like a biodiversity haven, safe from the many external stresses of human activity. What is becoming apparent, however, is that this conservation tool rarely shelters waters from warming, changing chemistry, habitat loss, or species shifts – in other words, the impacts of climate change.

Scientists are therefore increasingly recommending that MPA designs evolve from static to adaptive.

“Ten years from now, what you thought you were protecting is not there anymore because they moved [due to climate change],” says Adrian Munguia-Vega, a marine biologist at the University of Arizona. “Or the network of protected areas that you were creating to improve the resilience of these ecosystems gets completely disconnected and broken into parts.”

The need for MPAs to deliver results has grown increasingly urgent since 2022 when parties to the UN biodiversity convention agreed to conserve and manage 30% of the world’s marine and coastal areas by 2030 – known as the “30 by 30” target.

In response to this need, Munguia-Vega and 50 other scientists and conservation experts wrote “Guidelines for designing climate-smart marine protected areas”. The document, published in October 2023 in the journal One Earth, offers a framework of 21 transboundary recommendations, conceived to support marine animals and their habitats amid looming climate challenges.

China Dialogue Ocean spoke to the study’s research co-lead Nur Arafeh-Dalmau. The marine conservation scientist from Stanford University says MPAs are investments, and including climate change in their design is required to make the best of the investment. “We may not get the outcomes desired if we don’t,” he adds.

Climate adaptation in the Southern California Bight

Considering climate change in MPA designs is not a novel idea. Scientists have been discussing it for at least two decades, but the awareness has seldom translated into action. For example, the design of California’s MPA network, which is a case-study in the One Earth paper, and many in the UK, did not address climate adaptation.

Munguia-Vega says this lack of concrete measures related to climate change might be due to a lack of scientific data, and hence knowledge, to inform conservationists.

To help fill in these information gaps, a network of marine scientists including Arafeh-Dalmau and Munguia-Vega analysed the Southern California Bight during the 2010s. The bight ecoregion, stretching over 2,700 km of coastal and inland waters, lies between Point Conception in California, US, and Punta Abreojos in Baja California Sur, Mexico. The team analysed sea surface temperature data and ran models to simulate ocean dynamics according to future climate scenarios.

The bight is known for its productive waters, which support a rich ecosystem and local fishing economies. It has also been identified as a hotspot of marine climate change, perched on the front lines of rapid ocean warming, acidification and deoxygenation, as well as increasingly frequent extreme weather events like marine heatwaves and hurricanes.

Under these changes, Arafeh-Dalmau and Munguia-Vega’s study projects that both the density of larval species in the area – including of lobsters, abalones, sea urchins, California sheepheads, and sea cucumbers – and their ability to wriggle from one habitat patch to another could diminish by an average of 50% by 2100.

While drifting along the ocean current, these species will increasingly find some of their usual habitats and breeding sites decimated by extreme weather. Meanwhile, warming waters will speed up their metabolic rates and respiration, which compresses larval phases and shortens dispersal ranges. Or, in Munguia-Vega’s words: “The larvae don’t have as much time as they used to have to reach the next patch.”

These patches of habitat are individual pieces of the Southern California Bight’s overall ecosystem. Their replenishment relies on the interconnectivity that drifting larvae facilitate. As the ecological connectivity of the MPA network shrinks, each patch will become more isolated and extinction risks will increase. 

“The entire [bight] system will be much less resilient and have a higher risk of population collapse,” explains Munguia-Vega. “That effectively means that you need a higher density of connected patches.”

The One Earth study suggests plans for the bight’s MPA network must be made with larval dispersal projections in mind. The network must cover a larger area and become denser and more focused on stepping-stone habitats – through which species usually pass on their dispersal journeys. 

The study also advises extending the duration of MPAs to more than 25 years – if not making them permanent – and granting them a higher level of protection. Some of the MPAs are only in effect for a limited period, or even seasonally, to protect certain species and habitats, such as during spawning. Prolonging the protection could support the over-exploited species that the MPAs aim to help restore, as marine heatwaves extend the time they need to recover, the study finds.

International cooperation on border-crossing species

Larvae naturally cross international borders. Around 16% of sea urchin and sea cucumber larvae in the Southern California Bight cross between the US and Mexico, according to the One Earth paper. As for the California sheephead, a local fish species, 20% cross from Mexican waters into the US. The data suggests that supporting these ecosystems requires international collaboration.

However, Munguia-Vega says the US and Mexican governments barely communicate to ensure a smoother cross-border journey for these larvae. His paper advocates for more international cooperation in developing and managing MPA networks.

“Almost all coastal countries share the ocean with a neighboring country, so we need to think about that,” says Arafeh-Dalmau. He believes that transboundary cooperation on MPAs can also boost international engagement, facilitating capacity-building and even enhancing peace-making efforts.

Carlos Mireles, a senior environmental scientist at the California Department of Fish and Wildlife, told China Dialogue Ocean that the department agrees with the findings of the paper. In fact, a researcher from the department was a co-author, as were representatives of other state agencies.

California carried out its first comprehensive examination of its MPA management program and broader network performance in 2022, Mireles adds. Out of that review came a recommendation for the state to incorporate climate change considerations into all aspects of the program. 

The state is formally reviewing proposals requesting changes to its MPA network, he says. “Coordination across government agencies, including our counterparts in Mexico, tribal governments, researchers in MPA and climate science, and other partners, will be central to this review process,” he adds. 

China Dialogue Ocean also reached out to Mexico’s Comisión Nacional de Áreas Naturales Protegidas but had not received a response at the time of publication.

It all comes down to cutting emissions

As the overall ocean environment deteriorates, there may still be some exceptional areas where species are more insulated from the consequences, such as rocky reefs and seagrass meadows. These are known as “climate refugia” and the One Earth study recommends prioritizing their protection.

The Southern California Bight’s refugia are kelp forests. “When a heatwave hits the coast, the kelps don’t die and the species that live in the kelp forests can survive the heatwave,” explains Munguia-Vega. “Those are your ideal places to establish marine protected areas.” Preserving refugia may result in a higher species survival rate than protecting more vulnerable patches.

China Dialogue Ocean spoke to John Bruno, a biology professor at the University of North Carolina who studies tropical waters and coral reefs. Unlike areas such as the Southern California Bight, warmer waters may offer less climate refugia: “We generally have no idea where the refugia are, because there are really no places in the tropics that are safe from warming.”

Bruno expresses support for clear and realistic recommendations for MPA managers to reduce climate change impacts, but he is also conscious of the bigger picture: “Ultimately, the solution is only to reduce emissions … This is all pointless if we don’t slow warming.”

Munguia-Vega also stresses the urgency of cutting emissions and says it is the hidden message behind the study. He adds that, while scientific research can guide climate change adaptation work locally, if temperatures continue to rise and marine heatwaves strike more harshly and regularly, associated ecosystems will disintegrate. Climate refugia like kelp forests will also disappear, along with the hundreds of thousands of species that rely on them, he says.

“We are going to have to reduce our CO2 emissions,” concludes Munguia-Vega. “Otherwise, these things will get so complicated that the future will not be very optimistic.”

Regina Lam is a special projects editorial assistant at China Dialogue mainly covering ocean and biodiversity. She is also a freelance journalist based in London.

This article appears courtesy of China Dialogue Ocean and may be found in its original form here

 

Houthi Missile Attacks Threaten UK's Tea Supply

Tea
J Pellgen / CC BY SA 2.0

PUBLISHED MAR 3, 2024 9:52 PM BY THE CONVERSATION

 

 

[By Jas Kalra]

British people are known around the world for their love of tea. This is borne out by the statistics: a staggering 50 billion cups of tea are consumed on average in the UK every year.

Most of this tea is made using black tea leaves, most of which are not produced in the UK. Thus, shipping disruption caused by attacks on merchant vessels in the Red Sea, through which an estimated 12% of global trade passes each year, has sparked fears of a national tea shortage.

The attacks, which are being carried out by the Yemeni Houthi rebel militant group in support of Hamas, have forced shipping companies to redirect around the southern tip of Africa – a journey that can take up to three weeks longer.

Two of the UK’s biggest suppliers of tea, Tetley and Yorkshire Tea, have announced that they are monitoring their supply chains closely for any potential disruptions. And customers have reported reduced stocks of tea in supermarkets across the UK.

It is no surprise that tea is vulnerable to supply chain disruption. The tea supply chain is a complex global network, involving producers, processors, auctions and wholesalers, packers, distributors and retailers.

The UK imports primarily unprocessed tea from countries in south Asia and east Africa. This tea is then packaged and blended within the UK for both domestic and export markets. Only around 10% of the packaged tea sold in the UK is supplied by companies from overseas.

But tea is one of many items to be caught up in the supply chain crisis. The disruption is affecting supplies across various other sectors too, including electric cars and liquified natural gas – and it could prove costly.

The UK is particularly reliant on natural gas for the production of carbon dioxide, a gas that is essential for everything from NHS operations to keeping food fresh while it is transported.

Not so unpredictable

The disruption caused by the Red Sea attacks is considered by some to have been an entirely unpredictable occurrence of what is known as a “black swan” event. But this crisis is the latest in a long line of shocks to global supply networks that have occurred over the past decade.

Whether it was the 2011 tsunami off the coast of Japan, Brexit, COVID, US trade sanctions on China, or the war in Ukraine, the fact of the matter is that supply chains are now experiencing disruption more often than they used to.

There are two reasons for this. First, organizations have become increasingly reliant on distant countries for the manufacturing and supply of routine and critical components.

Sometimes this decision is made because of the natural advantage these countries hold. For example, China currently accounts for 93% of the global production of so-called rare earth elements, which are used in the components of many of the devices we use every day. But most of the time these decisions are driven by an organization’s pursuit of lowering its cost of operation.

Second, a focus on just-in-time production, where businesses focus on producing precisely the amount they need and delivering it as close as possible to the time their customers need it, has reduced the buffer against supply chain shocks.

Building resilient supply networks

Organizations need to diversify their supply chains by developing alternate sources of supply. Many businesses already spread their source of materials over multiple suppliers across different regions to ensure quality, the continuity of supply, and to minimize costs.

For less complex components, such as packaging (cardboard, plastic bags and bubble wrap) or raw materials (metals and plastic), multiple sourcing is often practiced through competitive tendering and reverse auctions; where the sellers bid for the prices at which they are willing to sell their goods and services.

However, for more complex products, the development of alternate sources of supply needs to be done strategically. One of the most important steps to improve supply chain resilience is to reduce reliance on global suppliers through processes called “onshoring”, “nearshoring” and “friendshoring”.

Onshoring is where components are sourced from suppliers located within domestic national borders. Nearshoring is a similar strategy where a company moves its supply to neighbouring countries. And friendshoring is where organizations transfer their production away from geopolitical rivals to friendlier countries.

The US, for example, has traditionally relied on Taiwan and South Korea for its supply of semiconductors (computer chips). But geopolitical tensions with China, coupled with a global shortage of semiconductors, have forced the US to look for suppliers in countries closer to home, while also exploring the potential of moving chip manufacturing to the US.

Geographical and climate factors restrict the onshoring of tea cultivation to the UK. But these supply strategies could help businesses manage the risk of supply chain disruption to other, potentially more critical, commodities.

Making supply chains more agile

The frequency with which global supply chains are now becoming disrupted means that organizations must rethink their supply chain strategies, evolving from being efficient and lean to flexible and agile.

An agile supply chain strategy will require businesses to maintain adequate inventory levels to guard against a situation where stock runs out. These inventory levels must be informed by real-time – or as close to real-time as possible – data on customer demand.

The disruption to the UK’s tea supply highlights the vulnerability of supplies of everyday essentials to unexpected events. But businesses can make sure they are better prepared for the occurrence of an unexpected event by enhancing the resilience of their supply chain through diversification and agility.

Jas Kalra is Associate Professor of Operations & Project Management at Manchester Metropolitan University.

Top Image: J Pellgen / CC BY SA 2.0

This article appears courtesy of The Conversation and may be found in its original form here

 

Russia Banished From Membership in the Danube Commission

Grain trucks burn after a Russian attack on the Lower Danube port of Izmail, Ukraine, 2023 (Operational Command South)
Grain trucks burn after a Russian attack on the Lower Danube port of Izmail, Ukraine, 2023 (Operational Command South)

PUBLISHED MAR 3, 2024 11:32 PM BY THE MARITIME EXECUTIVE

 

 

As western powers continue to sanction Russia for its ongoing war in Ukraine, the country has lost membership in the Danube Commission, effective March 1. This decision was adopted by member states last December during the commission’s 100th Jubilee Session.

“The Session took note of the systematic attacks by Russian Federation on the lower Danube region, which continually violate the fundamental principles of the Belgrade Convention. In this regard, the Danube States adopted a decision urging Russia to withdraw from Belgrade Convention until 29 February 2024, or failure to which, as of March 1, the Danube States will no longer consider themselves bound by the obligations of the Convention vis-à-vis Russia,” said a statement from the Commission.

The Danube Commission is one of the world’s oldest international organizations. Its main goals is to ensure and develop free navigation on the Danube River for merchant vessels flying the flags of its ten member states.

Beginning last year, Russia expanded its attacks to include Ukrainian port infrastructure on the Danube. Specifically, several Russian drone attacks in August and September struct Ukrainian grain facilities at the Danube River Port of Izmail, destroying over 10,000 metric tons of grain. Such actions contravene Belgrade Convention, according to the Commission.

Previously in March 2022, Russia’s powers at the Commission were terminated. The resolution meant Russian representatives were dismissed from the diplomatic and administrative-technical positions of the Secretariat of the Commission.

Although Ukrainian grain exports from the Black Sea ports have resumed through a special maritime corridor, the Danube route is still a critical alternative shipping route. Recently, the state-owned carrier Ukrainian Danube Shipping (UDP) announced it would expand its container shipping service to the Danube ports of Bulgaria, Serbia, Hungary, Slovakia, Austria, Germany and Romania.

 

We must stop technology-driven AI and focus on human impact first, global experts warn


Book Announcement

TAYLOR & FRANCIS GROUP





We need to stop designing new AI technology just because we can, causing people to adapt practices, habits and laws to fit the new technology; instead we need to design AI that fits exactly with what we need, according to human-centred AI advocates.

Fifty experts from around the world have contributed research papers to a new book on how to make AI more ‘human-centred,’ exploring the risks — and missed opportunities — of not using this approach and practical ways to implement it.

The experts come from over 12 countries, including Canada, France, Italy, Japan, New Zealand and the UK, and more than 12 disciplines, including computer science, education, the law, management, political science and sociology.

Human-Centered AI looks at AI technologies in various contexts, including agriculture, workplace environments, healthcare, criminal justice, higher education, and offers applicable measures to be more ‘human-centred,’ including approaches for regulatory sandboxes and frameworks for interdisciplinary working.

What is human-centred AI?

Artificial intelligence (AI) permeates our lives in an ever-increasing way and some experts are arguing that relying solely on technology companies to develop and deploy this technology in a way that truly enhances human experience will be detrimental to people in the long-term. This is where human-centered AI comes in.

One of the world’s foremost experts on human-centred AI, Shannon Vallor from the University of Edinburgh in Scotland, explains that human-centred AI means technology that helps humans to flourish.

She says: “Human-centered technology is about aligning the entire technology ecosystem with the health and well-being of the human person. The contrast is with technology that’s designed to replace humans, compete with humans, or devalue humans as opposed to technology that’s designed to support, empower, enrich, and strengthen humans.”

She points to generative AI, which has risen in popularity in recent years, as an example of technology which is not human-centred – she argues the technology was created by organizations simply wanting to see how powerful they can make a system, rather than to meet a human need.

“What we get is something that we then have to cope with as opposed to something designed by us, for us, and to benefit us. It’s not the technology we needed,” she explains. “Instead of adapting technologies to our needs, we adapt ourselves to technology’s needs.”

What is the problem with AI?

Contributors to Human-Centered AI lay out their hopes, but also many concerns with AI now and on its current trajectory, without a human-centred focus.

Malwina Anna Wójcik, from the University of Bologna, Italy, and the University of Luxembourg, points out the systemic biases in current AI development. She points out that historically marginalized communities do not play a meaningful role in the design and development of AI technologies, leading to the 'entrenchment of prevailing power narratives'.

She argues that there is a lack of data on minorities or that available data is inaccurate, leading to discrimination. Furthermore, the unequal availability of AI systems causes power gaps to widen, with marginalized groups unable to feed into the AI data loop and simultaneously unable to benefit from the technologies.

Her solution is diversity in research as well as interdisciplinary and collaborative projects on the intersection of computer science, ethics, law, and social sciences. At a policy level, she suggests that international initiatives need to involve intercultural dialogue with non-Western traditions.

Meanwhile Matt Malone, from Thompson Rivers University in Canada, explains how AI poses a challenge to privacy because few people really understand how their data is being collected or how it is being used.

“These consent and knowledge gaps result in perpetual intrusions into domains privacy might otherwise seek to control,” he explains. “Privacy determines how far we let technology reach into spheres of human life and consciousness. But as those shocks fade, privacy is quickly redefined and reconceived, and as AI captures more time, attention and trust, privacy will continue to play a determinative role in drawing the boundaries between human and technology.”

Malone suggests that 'privacy will be in flux with the acceptance or rejection of AI-driven technologies', and that even as technology affords greater equality it is likely that individuality is at stake.

AI and human behaviour

As well as exploring societal impacts, contributors investigate behavioral impacts of AI use in its current form.

Oshri Bar-Gil from the Behavioral Science Research Institute, Israel, carried out a research project looking at how using Google services caused changes to self and self-concept. He explains that a data ‘self’ is created when we use a platform, then the platform gets more data from how we use it, then it uses the data and preferences we provide to improve its own performance.

“These efficient and beneficial recommendation engines have a hidden cost—their influence on us as humans,” he says. “They change our thinking processes, altering some of our core human aspects of intentionality, rationality, and memory in the digital sphere and the real world, diminishing our agency and autonomy.”

Also looking into behavioral impacts, Alistair Knott from Victoria University of Wellington, New Zealand, and Tapabrata Chakraborti from the Alan Turing Institute, University College London, UK, and Dino Pedreschi from the University of Pisa, Italy, looked at the pervasive use of AI in social media.

“While the AI systems used by social media platforms are human-centered in some senses, there are several aspects of their operation that deserve careful scrutiny,” they explain.

The problem stems from the fact that AI continually learns from user behavior, refining their model of users as they continue to engage with the platform. But users tend to click on the items the recommender system suggests for them, which means the AI system is likely to narrow a user’s range of interests as time passes. If users interact with biased content, they are more likely to be recommended that content and if they continue to interact with it, they will find themselves seeing more of it: “In short, there is a plausible cause for concern that recommender systems may play a role in moving users toward extremist positions.”

They suggest some solutions for these issues, including additional transparency by companies holding data on recommender systems to allow for greater studying and reporting on the effects of these systems, on users’ attitudes toward harmful content.

How can human-centred AI work in reality?

Pierre Larouche from the Université de Montréal, Canada, argues that treating AI as ‘a standalone object of law and regulation’ and assuming that there is ‘no law currently applicable to AI’ has left some policymakers feeling as if it is an insurmountable task.

He explains: “Since AI is seen as a new technological development, it is presumed that no law exists for it yet. Along the same lines, despite the scarcity—if not outright absence—of specific rules concerning AI as such, there is no shortage of laws that can be applied to AI, because of its embeddedness in social and economic relationships.”

Larouche suggests that the challenge is not to create new legislation but to ascertain how existing law can be extended and applied to AI, and explains: “Allowing the debate to be framed as an open-ended ethical discussion over a blank legal page can be counter-productive for policy-making, to the extent that it opens the door to various delaying tactics designed to extend discussion indefinitely, while the technology continues to progress at a fast pace.”

Benjamin Prud’homme, the Vice-President, Policy, Society and Global Affairs at Mila – Quebec Artificial Intelligence Institute, one of the largest academic communities dedicated to AI, echoes this call for confidence in policymakers.

He explains: “My first recommendation, or perhaps my first hope, would be that we start moving away from the dichotomy between innovation and regulation — that we acknowledge it might be okay to stifle innovation if that innovation is irresponsible.

“I’d tell policymakers to be more confident in their ability to regulate AI; that yes, the technology is new, but that it is inaccurate to say they have not (successfully) dealt with innovation related challenges in the past lot of people in the AI governance community are afraid of not getting things right from the get-go. And you know, one thing I’ve learned in my experiences in policymaking circles is that we’re likely not going to get it entirely right from the get-go. That’s ok.

“Nobody has a magic wand. So, I’d say the following to policymakers: Take the issue seriously. Do the best you can. Invite a wide range of perspectives—including marginalized communities and end users—to the table as you try to come up with the right governance mechanisms. But don’t let yourself be paralyzed by a handful of voices pretending that governments can’t regulate AI without stifling innovation. The European Union could set an example in this respect, as the very ambitious AI Act, the first systemic law on AI, should be definitively approved in the next few months.”

 

Cost of direct air carbon capture to remain higher than hoped



Peer-Reviewed Publication

ETH ZURICH



Switzerland plans to reduce its net carbon emissions to zero by no later than 2050. To achieve this, it will need to drastically reduce its greenhouse gas emissions. In its climate strategy, the Swiss government acknowledges that some of these emissions, particularly in agriculture and industry, are difficult or impossible to avoid. Swiss climate policy therefore envisages actively removing 5 million tonnes of CO2 from the air and permanently storing it underground. By way of comparison, the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) estimates that up to 13 billion tonnes of CO2 will need to be removed from the atmosphere every year from 2050.

These targets will be hard to achieve unless ways can be found to reduce the cost of direct air capture (DAC) technologies. ETH spin-​off Climeworks operates a plant in Iceland that currently captures 4,000 tonnes of CO2 a year, at a cost per tonne of between 1,000 and 1,300 dollars. But how quickly can these costs come down as deployment increases?

ETH researchers have developed a new method that provides a more accurate estimate of the future cost of various DAC technologies. As the technologies are scaled up, direct air capture will become significantly cheaper – though not as cheap as some stakeholders currently anticipate. Rather than the oft-​cited figure of 100 to 300 US dollars, the researchers suggest the costs are more likely to be between 230 and 540 dollars.

“Just because DAC technologies are available, it certainly doesn’t mean we can relax our efforts to cut carbon emissions. That said, it’s still important to press ahead with the expansion of DAC plants, because we will need these technologies for emissions that are difficult or impossible to avoid,” says Bjarne Steffen, ETH Professor of Climate Finance and Policy. He developed the new method together with Katrin Sievert, a doctoral student in his research group, and ETH Professor Tobias Schmidt.

Three technologies and their costs

The ETH researchers applied their method to three direct air capture technologies. The goal was to compare how the cost of each technology is likely to evolve over time. Their findings suggest that the process developed by Swiss company Climeworks, in which a solid filter with a large surface area traps CO2 particles, could cost between 280 and 580 US dollars per tonne by 2050.

The estimated costs of the other two DAC technologies fall within a similar range. The researchers calculated a price of between 230 and 540 dollars a tonne for the capture of CO2 from the atmosphere using an aqueous solution of potassium hydroxide, a process that has been commercialised, for example, by Canadian company Carbon Engineering. The cost of carbon capture using calcium oxide derived from limestone was estimated at between 230 and 835 dollars. This latter method is offered by US company Heirloom Carbon Technologies, among others.

Focus on components

Estimating how the cost of new technologies will change over time is particularly difficult in situations where very little empirical information is available. This lack of real-​world data represents a challenge for DAC technologies: they haven’t been in use long enough to allow projections to be made as to how their cost might evolve in the future. To address this dilemma, the ETH researchers focused on the individual components of the different DAC systems and estimated their cost one by one. They then asked 30 industry experts to assess the design complexity of each technological component and determine how easy it would be to standardise.

The researchers based their work on certain assumptions: namely, that the cost of less complex components that can be mass-​produced will fall more sharply, while the cost of complex parts that must be tailored to each individual system will fall only slowly. DAC systems also include mature components such as compressors, which cannot feasibly be made much cheaper. Once the researchers had estimated the cost of each individual part, they then added the cost of integrating all the components and the costs of energy and operation.

Despite significant uncertainties in their calculations, the researchers’ message was clear: “At present, it is not possible to predict which of the available technologies will prevail. It is therefore crucial that we continue to pursue all the options,” says Katrin Sievert, lead author of the study, which recently appeared in the journal Joule.

 

The health and economic impact of youth violence in the United States reached $122 billion in 2020


New research in the American Journal of Preventive Medicine estimates the cost of homicides and nonfatal assaults of young people in the US


Peer-Reviewed Publication

ELSEVIER





Ann Arbor, March 4, 2024 – In 2020, the cost of youth violence in the United States was approximately $122 billion, according to new research in the American Journal of Preventive Medicine, published by Elsevier. The study quantifies the economic toll of homicides and nonfatal assaults of young people ages 10–24 years, differentiating by injury mechanism (e.g., firearms, stabbings, and other methods). Youth homicide cost the US an estimated $86 billion, of which firearm homicides contributed $78 billion. Nonfatal assault injuries among youth cost $36 billion. 

Lead investigator Elizabeth M. Parker, PhD, Division of Violence Prevention, National Center for Injury Prevention and Control, Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC), Atlanta, explains, “We lose young people to violence every day in this country. Violence is a leading cause of injury and death among American youth. It affects all types of communities across our country, causing pain and suffering to individuals, families, and communities. The high economic cost is an important measure of the widespread problem of youth violence. Understanding it helps us grasp the broader consequences of violence and the critical importance of violence prevention programs, policies, and practices. We hope identifying the economic implications of youth violence will encourage active engagement and contribute to building safer communities for all.”

The investigators used data from the CDC’s publicly available Web-based Injury Statistics Query and Reporting System (WISQARS) to analyze homicides and nonfatal assaults resulting in emergency department visits among youth ages 10–24 years in 2020, as well as analyze the average economic cost of those injuries. The estimate includes costs for medical care, lost work, and reduced quality of life but does not include costs to the criminal justice system.

The study segmented the data by the injury mechanism or cause (e.g., firearms, stabbings, etc.), which distinguishes it from other recent research on youth violence. Injuries from firearms and stabbing accounted for 96% of youth homicides.

The findings highlight the importance of developing and implementing programs to address risk factors and prevent youth violence.

Dr. Parker adds, “Youth violence is preventable. We know there are strategies that work to prevent violence and ease the pain, suffering, and economic burden associated with youth nonfatal assault and homicide. CDC developed Resources for Action that describe strategies with the best available evidence to help communities and states focus their violence prevention efforts to ensure safer and healthier communities for all.”

These evidence-based approaches include but are not limited to, early childhood home visitation programs, preschool enrichment with family engagement, mentoring or after-school programs, street outreach, and community norm change campaigns.