It’s possible that I shall make an ass of myself. But in that case one can always get out of it with a little dialectic. I have, of course, so worded my proposition as to be right either way (K.Marx, Letter to F.Engels on the Indian Mutiny)
Friday, March 08, 2024
Turkish Port Abandons Russian Oil as Sanctions Enforcement Tightens
The jetty at the Dortyol terminal (GTS file image)
One of the leading importers of Russian oil has decided that it will no longer accept it, even when the cargo is technically compliant with Western sanctions. The Dortyol terminal on Turkey's Mediterranean coast has decided that the business is not worth the risk, according to Reuters.
The Dortyol tank farm and loading jetty belongs to Global Terminal Services (GTS), a subsidiary of the independent Turkish energy company Transpet.
In a statement, GTS told Reuters that it has decided to "cut all possible connections to Russian oil." It informed its customers at the end of last month that it would not be accepting any product made in Russia or loaded in Russian ports.
The move goes beyond compliance requirements for Western sanctions, but provides an extra measure of assurance as the United States and its allies ramp up enforcement of restrictions on Russian energy.
Turkey became one of the biggest growth markets for Russian oil after the EU shut its doors to Russian energy exporters in 2022. Last year, Turkish energy companies saved about $2 billion by ramping up imports of discounted Russian oil, replacing consumption of more expensive market-rate cargoes. In November, Turkey accounted for about 14 percent of all Russian seaborne oil exports, according to Reuters. It also tripled its imports of Russian distillate products.
Western sanctions on Russia have yet to have a material effect on the Kremlin's defense budget or its balance of power on the battlefield, both of which have shifted in Russia's favor. The U.S. Treasury and independent researchers estimate that sanctions have reduced Russian oil revenues by 14-25 percent; Russian military spending has risen by 60 percent over the same period.
Austal USA Launches First Production Hull of 65-Foot Saildrone Series
CNO Adm. Lisa Franchetti (second from right) and colleagues at Austal for the launch (Saildrone)
The California-based autonomous boat company Saildrone has partnered with shipbuilder Austal to start production of its extra-large sail-powered vessel, the Surveyor.
Saildrone's orange drones are a familiar sight in the research community, and have been used on long-distance blue water operations for years. They have self-deployed from California for surveys in the Bering Sea, ventured into Antarctic and High Arctic waters, and traced out thousands of miles of trackline in the Central Pacific, without intervention or resupply. The Navy has also trialed them in the Persian Gulf and Strait of Hormuz for surveillance applications, with some success (except for a brief capture-and-abduction incident involving Iranian operatives). To date, Saildrone's devices have logged more than 1.1 million nautical miles sailed and 32,000 days of sea time.
Building on the legacy of its original 23-foot design, Saildrone has created a 65-foot model that can carry a much larger payload. The new Surveyor can support full ocean depth multibeam sonar surveys to 11,000 meters of water, longer-range surveillance, and defense and security payloads to respond to "maritime threats." It has a displacement of 15 tonnes, putting it in the same size class as a large ocean racing yacht.
Courtesy Saildrone
Surveyor fits neatly into the Pentagon's plans to buy large volumes of less-expensive, high-performance drones to compete in the Western Pacific. The first production model was launched on Monday, with Chief of Naval Operations Adm. Lisa Franchetti in attendance, and Austal plans to deliver one every six weeks on its aluminum production line.
“Using unmanned assets helps put more players on the field by freeing up manned assets for more specific and important tasks,” said Adm. Franchetti. “It’s good to see high tech industry partnering with the traditional shipbuilding industrial base to rapidly deliver cutting-edge products at scale.”
Saildrone has also reached an agreement with Austal Ltd. to look for opportunities to build its platforms in Australia for Indo-Pacific customers.
UK Will Provide Record $1B in Support to Offshore Wind in Next Auction
UK looks to revive its stalled offshore wind sector with a record level of support for the next round of auctions (Vestas file photo)
The UK government is planning to offer a record amount of support in the next round of offshore wind energy auctions scheduled for this year. It comes as the latest effort to kick start the next phase of renewable energy development in the UK after they fell short in 2023 with no bidders in the previous round of auctions.
The UK had been at the forefront of offshore wind energy development and with approximately 14 GW already operational continues to have the largest installed base in Europe. China however surpassed the UK as the world’s leader and then with the impact of inflation and supply chain issues, the industry was further handicapped in the UK.
The government’s goal is to have 50 GW of offshore wind energy capacity operational by 2030. According to a report in the Financial Times, this year could see as much as 9 GW of new offshore wind projects bid for contracts.
The UK uses a scheme known as Contracts for Difference (CfD) where the wind farm developers bid for and receive a guaranteed price for the electricity generated at its sites. If the price of electricity falls below the agreed price the government supports it and if it goes above the companies rebate the extra to customers. The government argues that this certainty is critical for developers' planning and has encouraged additional investment in the emerging sectors.
The government’s Department for Energy Security and Net Zero confirmed on Wednesday that the new government budget includes £800 million (more than $1 billion) in funding for the upcoming sixth auction. It is more than four times the amount committed in 2023 and sets a new record for the government’s contribution.
It is the second key step designed to support the auctions and attract bids from the leading developers. Previously, the government reported that it was raising the cap price on electricity in the auction to £73 per MW. It is nearly double the £44 in 2023 which the industry argued was too low to make development economical. The guaranteed price is provided for 15 years with the latest round of contracts expected to begin in 2027.
In addition to not receiving bids in the September 2023 auctions, the Swedish energy company Vattenfall in July 2023 canceled planned UK projects citing the changed economics of the industry. The company won its Contract for Difference (CfD) in July 2022 for Boreas, which was to have an installed capacity of 1.4 GW and was due to deliver its first power in 2027. The zone with the three wind farms was to consist of between 180 and 312 turbines with a total capacity of 3.6 GW.
In the first renewed positive sign for the industry, RWE in December 2023 agreed to buy three offshore wind farm projects which were in a late stage of development from Vattenfall in a deal that valued the wind zone at approximately $1.2 billion. Now, hopes are high for a strong showing in the next round of the auctions.
In addition to increasing its support for offshore wind, the government also earmarked £200 million for other forms of renewable energy. This includes a third round for tidal energy projects, as well as support for onshore wind, solar farms, geothermal, and to support the continued development of floating offshore wind farms.
The government however also drew criticism for adding another year of tax credits for the North Sea oil industry now running till March 2029. In addition, they deferred support for new “small modular reactors,” a concept to expand the use of nuclear power by developing new technologies.
Iberdrola Offers to Acquire U.S. Renewables and Wind Subsidiary Avangrid
Avangrid is currently building Vineyard Wind off Massachusetts as the first large U.S. offshore wind farm (Vineyard Wind)
Spain’s Iberdrola, one of the world's biggest energy companies, is proposing to take private its U.S. operating company Avangrid in a deal valued at nearly $2.5 billion. The proposed acquisition comes as both companies are looking to expand their position in renewable energy with Iberdrola already holding over 80 percent of Avangrid.
Avangrid was launched in 2015 when Iberdrola USA, which owned regulated electric and gas utilities in New York and Maine acquired Connecticut-based UIL Holdings Corporation. At the time they said the combination would create a larger, more diversified power and utility company with seven regulated electric and gas utilities as well as a 6.5 GW primarily renewables portfolio, which included the second largest operating wind portfolio in the U.S., and a total pipeline of over 6 GW.
Today the U.S. operation is in 24 states and has two primary lines of business: networks and renewables. Through its networks business, Avangrid owns and operates eight electric and natural gas utilities, serving more than 3.3 million customers in New York and New England while through its renewables business, Avangrid owns and operates a portfolio of renewable energy generation facilities across the United States.
Last week, they reported that the Bureau of Ocean Energy Management (BOEM) had issued the Final Environmental Impact Statement for its New England Wind lease area. They expect to receive full federal approval in April and for the construction plan in July for the New England Wind lease area which has the potential to provide approximately 2 GW. Avangrid as part of a 50-50 Joint Venture with Copenhagen Infrastructure Partners, is constructing the first large-scale offshore wind project in the United States, Vineyard Wind One, located off the coast of Massachusetts. The project is currently under construction, and on track to achieve full commercial operations in 2024, while the company also pursuing the development of Commonwealth Wind (1200 MW), Park City Wind (804 MW), and Kitty Hawk Wind (3500 MW).
“The objective of this transaction is to increase exposure to the networks business in the United States at a key time for Iberdrola, which wants to grow in markets with high credit ratings and in regulated businesses such as networks,” the Spanish company said in announcing its offer.
Iberdrola offered $34.25 per share, which represents a premium of approximately 10 percent compared to the weighted average share price of the last 30 days, for the 18.4 percent of Avangrid that it does not currently own. This price represents an investment of $2.48 billion for Iberdrola.
Avangrid issued a statement reporting that an Unaffiliated Committee of its Board of Directors received and is reviewing the offer. They said that no decision has been made and that the committee will “review, evaluate, negotiate, and approve or disapprove the proposal, advised by independent legal and financial advisers, as well as any other alternative proposals or other strategic alternatives that may be available to Avangrid.”
Houlder Develops New Tool for Analyzing Ship Efficiency
Houlder, the design and engineering consultancy with sustainability at its core, has developed a new tool for analysing ship performance and evaluating efficiency options, including energy efficiency technologies – also known as energy-saving devices or clean technologies.
The Houlder Optimisation & Modelling Environment, HOME™, uses the latest digital twin technology to create a virtual world which can be used to analyse tweaks to the operations of existing ships, to design brand new vessels, or to outline various ways to save fuel and cut associated greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions on specific voyages or across all operations.
Using HOME™, shipowners are able to analyse the emissions performance of efficiency technologies for their specific vessel and its unique operating profile. Fundamentally, each ship has different efficiency requirements impacted by route, cargo, design and so on, and will benefit from a different technology or blend of technologies. The key is to start with the ship, not the technology being offered.
Rupert Hare, CEO of Houlder, commented: “The vessel efficiency opportunity is well understood; if you save fuel, you save money and GHG emissions. If you save emissions, you save the planet. It’s a virtuous circle in that regard. However, uncertainty about the performance of efficiency technologies remains a barrier to final investment decisions and wider uptake. Clear data from an independent and objective source on the specific fuel and emissions savings of green solutions can help build the commercial case required. Good decisions need good data and it’s always a smart idea to get a second opinion.”
Jonathan Strachan, CTO of Houlder, said: “This isn't just about looking at how ships do what they do; it's about making them do it better. Depending on what a client needs, HOME™ can dial the detail up or down. For those at the drawing-board stage, basic-fidelity simulations offer a quick peek at what's possible. For more in-depth analysis, like weighing up different modifications or getting into the nitty-gritty of business planning, mid-fidelity and high-fidelity simulations provide richer, more detailed insights through Houlder's computational fluid dynamics (CFD) and hydrodynamics capabilities and expertise.”
Operational modelling is an emerging field of study for the maritime industry – advances in processing power, AI, and big data are leading to the development of new and smarter tools. When real-world data from ships is available, it can be fed into HOME™ to make the modelling even more accurate. The system can also calculate carbon intensity indicator (CII) and energy efficiency existing ship index (EEXI) ratings, plus hull forms can be recreated from 2D drawings, removing the need for expensive 3D scanning.
Verified and accurate emissions performance data is in the best interest of technology providers as well as ship owners and operators. It’s a win-win, as technology companies need case studies of their solutions performing well on a suitable vessel and route to build trust with other shipowners, and clearly shipowners want the best return on investment – both in terms of cash and carbon.
Energy efficiency technologies come in various shapes, sizes, and guises, all promising answers to shipowners' decarbonisation headaches. They include rigid wing sails, Flettner rotors, kite sails, suction wings, waste heat recovery solutions, Mewis ducts, propeller boss cap fins, rudder bulbs, pre-swirl stators, wake equalizing ducts, air lubrication, bow enhancement, hull fins, hull antifouling technologies, hull form optimisations, propellor optimisations, engine optimisations, and so on.
With more and more efficiency technologies available – and regulatory, economic, technical, and financial drivers for their adoption evolving – it is time to evaluate technologies in combination, analyse real-world performance data, identify fleet-wide trends, take opportunities for incremental gains, calculate payback periods in-detail, and delve into technology readiness levels. Find out more about operational and vessel efficiency here.
The products and services herein described in this press release are not endorsed by The Maritime Executive.
ECOCIDE
MSC Containership Prohibited from Departing Canada as Fire Winds Down
With the fire fight nearly complete, the MSC containership is prohibited from moving until a plan is settled (Kyle McDougall, ECCC photo courtesy of CCG)
Transport Canada reports that the fire aboard the MSC Mediterranean Shipping Company vessel MSC Sao Paulo V is nearly extinguished after five days. They have however also prohibited the vessel from departing its current position while a plan is developed for the next phase of the operation.
The 63,500 dwt containership registered in Liberia reported an engine room fire on March 3 as it was approaching the pilot station at Les Escoumins on the St. Lawrence River. The vessel with a capacity of 4,500 TEU was outbound from Montreal bound for Portugal.
The Canadian Coast Guard continues to monitor the situation aboard the vessel and has its icebreaker CCGS Amundsen still standing by as well as a Coast Guard Environmental Response Team nearby in Tadoussac in case there is a need for a response. They report that there have been no causalities and no environmental issues so far in the incident.
While the fire is nearly extinguished, they are reporting that there is still a high smoke and CO2 content on board. Ventilation of the vessel will be required for a minimum of 24 hours before anybody can move freely on it without protective equipment.
MSC had brought in several teams of firefighters with specialized equipment from the United States to assist in the effort. In addition, two of the company’s other containerships, MSC Don Giovanni (41,590 dwt) and the MSC Celine (39,000 dwt) were both in the area and diverted to provide assistance. The crew from the stricken vessel has been using the other two ships for relief and drawing supplies including food from the vessels.
The ship is in a sheltered area of the St. Lawrence River outside the main shipping lane near the entrance to the Saguenay Fjord. Two tugs remain alongside and have helped to reposition the vessel to prevent it from grounding during low tide in the region.
The Canadian Coast Guard reports that discussions are ongoing with the shipowner and other Canadian agencies to determine the plan for the ship. Some plans for the next steps have been proposed but the ship is prevented from moving until an agreement is reached with the Canadian authorities.
Capsized Barge Off Tobago Stops Spilling Fuel Oil
Gulfstream spills oil off Tobago, February 2024 (TEMA)
The leak from the mysterious fuel oil barge that capsized off the coast of Tobago last month has stopped, according to the Trinidadian government.
For the past month, the barge has been leaking fuel oil into the water off the southern end of Tobago, sending a sheen westwards as far as Bonaire.
The leak has stopped now, according to local authorities - but not because of human intervention. The response management team in Tobago believes that the oil-laden tanks of the barge are now filled with seawater above the locations of the leak points, blocking further releases of petroleum.
A government-sponsored salvage effort is set to begin soon, and the authorities have made arrangements with salvors and pollution-response providers.
The aging barge's ownership appears to trace back to a firm in Panama. The open-source intelligence experts at Bellingcat have identified the vessel as a formerly American-owned ATB barge, Gulfstream, which was renamed and sold into South American service. Bellingcat and TankerTrackers.com spotted the Gulfstream at a Venezuelan oil-transfer area in January using satellite imagery. The tug - ID'd by Trinidad as the Tanzanian-flagged Solo Creed - has not been seen on AIS since late January and appears to have disappeared.
Export of Dutch Submarines Thanks to Swedish-Dutch Cooperation Saab-Damen
Signing of the agreement for export of Dutch submarines
Saab and Damen Shipyards have agreed to export the advanced Expeditionary C-71 submarines. CEO of Damen Shipyards Arnout Damen and CEO of Saab Micael Johansson made the decision this week to export together the submarine, which has been developed for the Royal Netherlands Navy to replace the current Walrus class. The agreement doubles the long-term prospect of employment and income for the Netherlands Naval Cluster with the replacement of the Walrus submarines by Saab-Damen.
Saab and Damen have been working together since 2015 to build, modernise, and maintain the new expeditionary submarine for the Royal Netherlands Navy. This project is so much more than delivering four submarines. Dutch strategic autonomy is, given the geopolitical developments at the moment, vital in strategic projects like the submarine replacement, with the Dutch Naval base being the single remaining self-sufficient defence industry cluster in the Netherlands DTIB.
The two companies have now also agreed to offer their advanced Expeditionary submarines to Canada. A country in the initial phase of a similar process to replace their diesel-electric submarines. This offers the Netherland government a strategic best choice in line with its Defence industry Strategy 2018, several Parliamentary Letters on this topic and the important National Sector Agenda for the Maritime Industry.
The expeditionary submarine is based on the successful, proven, and future-proof design of the A26 submarines. It incorporates the latest capabilities and technologies, while the modular design allows room for customisability as well as new technologies as they develop, ensuring relevance for decades to come.
Through Saab's business area Kockums, Sweden has a long tradition of producing world-class submarines. For this new expeditionary design, Saab is working closely with Damen Shipyards and a range of Dutch suppliers and is supported by the United Kingdom. Four countries currently operate submarines and submarine technology designed by Saab: Sweden, Australia, Japan, and Singapore.
The products and services herein described in this press release are not endorsed by The Maritime Executive.
UK Awards $700M Contract for Refit of Ballistic-Missile Sub
HMS Victorious under tow (Image courtesy Royal Navy)
The UK has awarded a $700 million contract to defense shipbuilder Babcock to undertake a major refit of HMS Victorious, one of Britain's four Vanguard-class nuclear-powered ballistic missile submarines. Victorious will be the second sub to undergo the multiyear overhaul.
UK Defense Secretary Grant Shapps said that the refit is designed to keep the submarine in operation into the 2030s, preserving the Royal Navy's second-strike capability. The service has a record of over 55 years of uninterrupted nuclear deterrence patrols.
The life extension contract, signed with the UK’s Submarine Delivery Agency (SDA), will be carried out at Babcock’s Devonport facility. It will deliver Victorious back to the Royal Navy modernized and improved.
Work on the submarine is already underway, following a commitment to authorize early work beginning in July last year.
Victorious will be the second in her class to undergo a life extension program, after Vanguard. The overhaul for Vanguard had difficulties: it ran about $380 million over budget and three years late, thanks to COVID disruption and technical problems with refueling her reactors. The refit was marred by a minor scandal when contracting officials found that bolts in her reactor cooling system had been broken and glued back together by yard workers.
Unlike Vanguard, Victorious does not need to be refueled in this yard period, according to the UK Ministry of Defense.
“In an increasingly dangerous world, it is crucial that we continue to invest in one of our most important assets, our nuclear deterrent. This is another UK partnership with Babcock that will help keep the UK safe, while boosting the local economy and supporting 1,000 jobs,” said Shapps.
The overhaul of Victorious will allow the boat to carry out deterrent patrols until the next generation of submarines, the Dreadnought-class, enter service. The UK government is investing approximately $47 billion in four Dreadnought-class nuclear-armed ballistic missile submarines, with the first expected to enter service in the 2030s.
The boats, christened Dreadnought, Valiant, Warspite and King George VI, are being built at BAE Systems at its Barrow-in-Furness shipyard in Cumbria.
The UK government has also committed a $950 million funding boost to the Devonport naval base to improve infrastructure and enable it to support the maintenance of existing and future submarines.
Japan’s Mitsui E&S is reporting that it successfully achieved hydrogen combustion of a large marine two-stroke engine making a key milestone in the development of hydrogen as an alternative fuel. Previously the tests have focused on hydrogen derivates such as ammonia, with the company which worked in conjunction with MAN Energy Solutions reporting that this provides critical information toward moving directly to hydrogen as a fuel.
During the test, one of the four cylinders in a MAN B&W two-stroke LNG-fired gas injection engine was converted to a hydrogen operation. The other cylinders continued to be fired with conventional fuel as a base case for comparison. High-pressure hydrogen was supplied to the cylinder from the hydrogen gas supply facility previously developed and demonstrated by Mitsui E&S.
They operated the cylinder and were able to achieve 100 percent load fueled by hydrogen load without any problems such as hydrogen leakage. They are reporting that the hydrogen fuel ignites easily but requires proper combustion control. The company succeeded in covering the equivalent of 95 percent of the heat value with hydrogen fuel, and the cylinder pressure curve was equivalent to that of the other three cylinders operated with conventional fuel. The company also confirmed that the hydrogen gas supply facility is capable of the stable supply of high-pressure hydrogen required for the engine. The five percent emissions originated from pilot fuel used during the testing.
Mitsui is a licensor of MAN with the German engine company reporting it worked closely with the Japanese company on the research project. Commenting on the results, they highlighted the “food for thought” from the results while calling it “a very interesting project” and saying they were very happy with the results achieved.
"This proves the advantages and the flexibility of two-stroke engine technology, and means that we are now also prepared for the future, not only for hydrogen derivatives but also for hydrogen as a fuel,” said Bjarne Foldager of MAN Energy Solutions.
MAN highlights that it is currently pursuing both the two- and four-stroke segments related to hydrogen. They said they would be evaluating the results while calling it a milestone for hydrogen. Mitsui E&S said it is the latest step in efforts for the early launch of hydrogen-related businesses in the maritime industry.
EBDG and Wärtsilä Team Up on Methanol-Fueled Power Barge
Seattle-based naval architecture firm Elliott Bay Design Group (EBDG) has reached an agreement with Wärtsilä to develop a barge-mounted cold ironing system that runs on methanol. The announcement confirms an arrangement the firms reached late last year.
EBDG's Clean Harbor Alternative Mobile Power (CHAMP) system is designed to provide auxiliary power in port, without grid infrastructure. The CHAMP barge runs with a clean-burning methanol-powered engine, and can provide offboard electricity where conventional shore power is not available. This allows the vessel to shut down its auxiliary engines and reduce in-port emissions.
For the port and surrounding community, this is an advantage from an air quality standpoint, but also alleviates pressure on the local electrical grid. Merchant ships can draw megawatt-scale loads, and delivering that much power often requires costly grid improvements.
“We are pleased to partner with Wärtsilä in bringing this innovative patent-pending solution to the market. The CHAMP barge project represents a significant stride toward tackling the most daunting challenges in curbing port emissions,” says Mike Complita, Principal in Charge at EBDG.
CHAMP will use a Wärtsilä 32 engine adapted to run on methanol, along with Wärtsilä exhaust treatment and fuel-handling systems. It will be able to provide 6-16 MW of power, and will be able to meet ships wherever they are in the harbor - whether alongside the pier or at anchor. EBDG envisions a second role for the barge as a recharging station for battery-electric harbor vessels, like tugs and small workboats.
For the operator, a floating power supply offers compliance advantages: it falls under U.S. Coast Guard regulations, and does not need the permitting process required for shoreside facilities. It is also designed to be compact - just 225 feet long - in order to fit well into the harbor operations of America's busiest ports.
NYK in Effort to Develop N2O Removal System for Ammonia-Fueled Ships
NYK will test the removal system on its previously ordered ammonia-fueled ammonia gas carriers (NYK)
A Japanese partnership between Hitachi Zosen Corporation and NYK (Nippon Yusen Kabushiki Kaisha) has been selected in a new research competition to develop the devices needed to eliminate nitric oxide (N2O) emissions when ammonia is heated and burned. While the industry is anxiously anticipating the introduction of ammonia as an alternative fuel to address the challenges of decarbonization, NYK highlights there is also a critical need to eliminate N2O emissions.
Japan’s New Energy and Industrial Technology Development Organization (NEDO) launched in November 2023 the next round of its ongoing efforts to develop green technologies. Hitachi Zosen and NYK were selected as a “Next-Generation Ship Development,” by NEDO for their proposal to develop what they are calling an N2O Reactor to be employed on ammonia-fueled ships as a catalytic removal system for N2O. They will be receiving funding from NEDO as part of Green Innovation Fund Projects.
Hitachi Zosen has a strong track record and know-how in catalytic technology, including the development of a marine vessel selective catalytic reduction (SCR) system for removing nitrogen oxides (NOx) in marine engines. The company will be responsible for developing the device as well as the catalysts and control systems that will first be developed for a 2-stroke engine.
The companies highlight the critical importance of controlling N2O emissions. N2O's global warming potential they note has been estimated at about 300 times that of CO2. Therefore, the companies said reducing N2O emissions is essential in order to realize ammonia-fueled ships that are highly effective in reducing GHG emissions.
NYK will be working with Hitachi Zosen to optimize the equipment layout for installation aboard ships and ClassNK will be reviewing and contributing its expertise. It will perform the required verifications of the design. The project will be launching this year and is scheduled to run through 2027.
NYK plans to install the N2O Reactor developed by Hitachi Zosen on an ammonia-fueled ship scheduled to be delivered in November 2026. NYK will also conduct safety and performance verification on demonstration voyages.
As a shipping company, they have been working to develop opportunities for ammonia as a fuel and for the transport of ammonia. NYK has already ordered several ammonia-ready transport ships and now looks to further develop its lead in this emerging segment.
Soil may release more carbon than expected, affecting climate change models
The cycle of drought, drying and cracking soil, and ground carbon release creates an amplified feedback loop that has not been accounted for in most models of climate change. Credit: Farshid Vahedifard
The accuracy of climate models depends on many factors—greenhouse gas emissions from industrial and transportation activity, farm animal "emissions," urban growth and loss of forests, and solar reflections off snow and ground cover. Natural phenomena like volcanic eruptions also contribute and are incorporated into models.
But some other natural processes have been overlooked. Farshid Vahedifard, professor and Louis Berger Chair in civil and environmental engineering, points to an important one that lies directly beneath our feet and covers most of our planet above water.
In a study published in Environmental Research Letters, Vahedifard notes that soil stores 80% of carbon on Earth, and with increasing cycles and severity of droughts in several regions, that crucial reservoir is cracking and breaking down, releasing even more carbon dioxide and other greenhouse gases into the atmosphere. In fact, it may be creating an amplified feedback loop that could accelerate climate change well beyond current predictions.
"This process has not been sufficiently evaluated in the existing literature or incorporated into models," said Vahedifard. "If we don't consider the interplay of drought, soil desiccation cracking, and CO2 emissions, that could result in significant inaccuracies when modeling and predicting climate change. There are other repercussions as well. Poorer soil health can lead to reduced photosynthesis and lower carbon dioxide uptake, and it can compromise the structural integrity of earthen dams that protect against floods."
There are also other amplifying feedback loops that may not have been fully accounted for in climate change models, he said. These include melting of sea ice and exposure of darker ocean surfaces that absorb more heat from the sun. The increase of wildfires due to warm, dry conditions releases a lot of carbon dioxide into the atmosphere, which in turn creates hotter, drier weather more conducive to fires.
Another amplified feedback loop is the thawing of Arctic and sub-Arctic permafrost, which also releases carbon dioxide into the atmosphere and raises climate temperature, leading to more melted permafrost.
But soil changes caused by drought could be as significant, if not more significant, than any of those factors. Drought, manifested by long periods of low soil moisture content and high temperature, leads to cracking in fine-grained soils, sometimes extending meters below the surface. The cracks result in more exposure to the air, increased microbial activity and breakdown of organic matter, releasing carbon dioxide, and loss of nutrients and ability to support plant growth, reducing carbon dioxide sequestering.
The deep cracks expose much older reserves of carbon that had previously been stable and protected, Vahedifard said. The permeation of air into the soil accelerates the release of not only carbon dioxide from organic matter but also other greenhouse gases like nitrous oxide.
Small animals like earthworms and millipedes that help turn the soil over are also affected by the reduced moisture and increased air exposure, being less able to play active roles in nutrient cycling and soil structure maintenance. That, in turn, increases the likelihood of soil cracking and aeration.
"The amplifying effect of soil carbon feedback loops and its interactions with other loops could carry us across tipping points and lead to even more severe and permanent shifts in climate," said Vahedifard.
He noted that government agencies and policymakers need to promote sustainable land use, "which can include adoption of precision irrigation techniques and water conservation practices, and use of drought tolerant crops," he said. "Organic fertilizers and compost can enhance soil organic matter content and improve soil water-holding capacity. Of course, this can only help if it's part of a comprehensive effort to reduce greenhouse gas emissions from all human activity."
More information: Farshid Vahedifard et al, Amplifying feedback loop between drought, soil desiccation cracking, and greenhouse gas emissions, Environmental Research Letters (2024). DOI: 10.1088/1748-9326/ad2c23
As Spring Shifts Earlier, Many Migrating Birds Are Struggling to Keep Up
With the climate warming, leaves and blooms are popping out ahead of schedule. A wide-ranging new study shows why this trend is troubling for a variety of bird species.
Words by Maddie Burakoff Associate Editor, Audubon Magazine Published March 07, 2024
For migrating birds, timing is key. Their journeys require massive amounts of energy, so they need plenty of fuel on their way, and after they get to their breeding grounds, they’ll have hungry chicks to feed, too. “Every day during migration, they’re just on this trade-off between starving to death and being able to continue forward,” says Morgan Tingley, an ornithologist at UCLA. “When they’re not flying, they’re mostly voraciously eating.”
These travelers rely on the newly-available resources brought by spring, such as leaves, flowers, and the insects that come out to munch on them. But that abundance of resources dies down later in the season—and if birds arrive at a stopover or breeding site after this peak period of “spring green-up,” they might miss out on the feeding frenzy.
Climate change is raising the risk of this kind of timing mismatch. As temperature and precipitation patterns shift, and spring’s “green-up” arrives earlier and earlier, a major question for scientists has been: Can birds keep up by changing their migrations? According to a sweeping study published this week in the journal PNAS, a wide range of species may already be falling behind.
“We’re used to thinking about warming with climate change,” says study author Scott Loss, an ecologist at Oklahoma State University. “But we’re changing the seasons, the seasonality, all across Earth.” Just this year, following a mild winter and record-warm February, leaves and blooms are already popping out, in some cases weeks ahead of their usual schedules; parts of the West Coast are seeing some of their earliest spring leaf-outs on record.
The new study shows this isn’t an anomaly. Loss and his team analyzed the migratory routes of 150 bird species, from hawks to hummingbirds, that breed in North America. They found that spring green-up was indeed moving earlier across birds’ flight paths, according to satellite observations between 2002 and 2021.
They then stacked those spring shifts against birders’ observations compiled from eBird, and found that migrators generally weren’t keeping pace: “Most of these species were more in sync with past long-term averages of green-up than with current green-up,” says author Ellen Robertson, who worked on the study as a postdoctoral researcher at Oklahoma State University. It’s a concerning mismatch, she says, since it suggests certain birds may not be flexible enough to adapt to a rapidly changing climate. Rather than deciding when to travel based on current conditions, some species may have migratory behavior that is hard-wired into their genes or learned from other birds—factors that could take generations to shift.
These findings add to a growing body of evidence suggesting spring migration is falling out of sync with food sources, says Stephen Mayor, an ecologist at the Ontario Forest Research Institute who was not involved with the study. “This paper expands on previous work to show that the phenomenon is not unique to songbirds, but is common across bird groups,” Mayor says in an email. The analysis covered everything from ducks and geese to kites and woodpeckers. Longer-distance migrants—such as vireos and warblers that winter in Central or South America—seemed to have extra trouble adjusting.
While the pattern of mismatch showed up across the board, longer-distance migrants—such as vireos and warblers that winter in Central or South America—seemed to have extra trouble adjusting to year-to-year changes. Their schedules appeared to be more tied to the calendar, possibly relying on cues like changing daylight to tell them when to set off, Loss says.
Tingley, who was not involved with this new study, has seen similar patterns in his research: “Most birds can’t keep up well, but there’s a real range,” he says. Short-distance migrants like Eastern Phoebes can more closely track conditions on the ground, which could help them adapt when those conditions change. But “if you’re a bird that’s wintering in South America, you have no understanding, no ability to know whether or not it’s an early spring or late spring here in North America,” Tingley says. “Those are the birds that are really falling behind.”
If migrants can’t find enough sources of food, they may not be able to survive their journeys, or could produce fewer offspring when they arrive, Loss says. And these earlier springs are part of a broader set of challenges for birds and other migratory animals, Robertson points out, ranging from sea turtles to wildebeest. A recent United Nations report found that one out of every five migratory species they tracked was at risk of extinction, battered by threats like habitat loss and overhunting, as well as other risks brought by climate change.
Still, more research is needed to understand exactly how shifting seasonal schedules are affecting bird survival. “The consequences for bird populations are potentially catastrophic, but also not yet entirely clear,” Mayor adds.
There is hope, for example, that even if they can’t shift their migrations, birds can adapt in other ways, like by shortening the window of preparation before they lay eggs—which some species are already doing, Tingley points out. Chicks in particular need to eat lots of insects, so it’s important that their hatches line up with periods of bug abundance. “They’re advancing their breeding, even when they cannot advance their migration,” he says, but it’s not known to what extent these kinds of changes can make up for lost time.
“It could be that even by trying in all these different ways to adapt to climate change, it’s still not enough,” Tingley says. “And at what point that becomes really, really bad for populations is a really big remaining question.”
