Israel war undermining top UN court, S.Africa says

Washington (AFP) – South Africa's top diplomat on Tuesday accused Israel of setting a precedent for leaders to defy the top UN court, as she again alleged a campaign of starvation in Gaza.


Issued on: 20/03/2024 - 

South Africa's Minister of International Relations and Cooperation Naledi Pandor speaks in Pretoria on March 5, 2024 

© Phill Magakoe / AFP/File

South Africa has hauled Israel before the International Court of Justice (ICJ) to allege genocide in the war triggered by the October 7 Hamas attack, infuriating Israel and drawing US criticism.

Naledi Pandor, South Africa's foreign minister, said Tuesday that Israel had defied a January interim ruling by the ICJ that it should take action to prevent acts of genocide as it fights Hamas in the Gaza Strip.

"The provisional measures have been entirely ignored by Israel," Pandor said at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace during a visit to Washington.

"We're seeing mass starvation now and famine before our very eyes," she said. "I think we, as humanity, need to look at ourselves in horror and dismay and to be really worried that we have set an example."

Pandor added that Israel's actions may mean other nations believe that "there's license -- I can do what I want and I will not be stopped."

She said that South Africa's post-apartheid democracy -- in going through international institutions -- was "merely practicing what is preached to us every day" by the West.

"The ICJ has not been respected. And the day an African disrespects (it) I hope we don't go to that leader and say 'Listen, you're out of bounds -- because you're an African, we expect you to obey,'" she said.

South Africa has again petitioned the court in The Hague to order measures for Israel to stop "widespread starvation" triggered by its Gaza offensive.

Israel denounced the South African plea as "outrageous" and "morally repugnant," pointing to its initiatives, including humanitarian pauses in fighting.

A UN-backed food security assessment determined that Gaza is facing imminent famine, with around 1.1 million people -- about half the population -- experiencing "catastrophic" hunger.

Zelensky expected

President Joe Biden's administration has called the genocide case "meritless," in its latest row with South Africa.

Last year the US ambassador in Pretoria accused South Africa of violating its stated neutrality in the Ukraine war by letting a Russian vessel dock to load military supplies, an allegation later walked back by Washington.

Pandor said that Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky would visit South Africa in the coming months.

"We always wanted to have a situation where we would be able to be a facilitator" between Ukraine and Russia, she said.

Russian President Vladimir Putin skipped a summit last year in Johannesburg of the BRICS bloc of emerging economies. Putin is the target of an arrest warrant by the International Criminal Court, which South Africa as a court member would in theory be expected to enforce.

While the Biden administration has voiced hope of maintaining cooperation with South Africa despite disagreements, Congress is reviewing a bill that would reevaluate the entire relationship.

Introducing the legislation last month, Republican Representative John James said South Africa has been "building ties to countries and actors that undermine America's national security and threaten our way of life," naming China, Russia and Hamas.

Pandor said US lawmakers had failed to consult South Africa and that democracies should allow differences of opinion.

"To seek to punish South Africa because there's a disagreement on particular policy areas is the most unfortunate response," she said.

© 2024 AFP

Bolivian lawyer defends Indigenous women in their language

Issued on: 20/03/2024

Bolivian Aymara indigenous lawyer Bertha Aguilar is currently handling 40 cases, from women in divorce proceedings to property conflicts -- all in her local Aymara language

 © Aizar RALDES / AFP


El Alto (Bolivia) (AFP) – Bertha Aguilar is harvesting potatoes on the shores of Lake Titicaca when her phone rings.

On the line, a woman speaking in the Indigenous Aymara language explains that she was beaten up by her brothers-in-law in a land dispute and needs a lawyer.

Aguilar, Aymara herself, is on the case.

The 56-year-old mother-of-two is one of the rare lawyers in Bolivia who represents women who only speak Aymara, the country's third most-used language after Spanish and Quechua.

"It's different when you speak to them in Aymara, they are better able to tell you what happened to them," Aguilar says as she tucks her phone away and returns to her harvest.

The Aymara represent 9.6 percent of Bolivians. And although the country counts 36 recognized languages, court proceedings are only held in Spanish and there is no obligation to provide an interpreter.

For the 41 percent of the population who identify as Indigenous, some of whom speak only their mother tongue, this is a barrier to justice.

"We would like to know how many judges and prosecutors speak an Indigenous language," said Lucia Vargas of the Women's Coordinator group of feminist NGOs.

"If the Aymara do not understand Spanish, they have greater difficulty understanding the complexity of a judicial process that is in Spanish."
'All kinds of bruises'

Aguilar proudly dons the traditional shawl, hat, and pollera -- a long woolen skirt -- worn by Aymara women, even when she is in court.

The mother-of-two is one of few lawyers who represent women in gender violence cases who can only speak Aymara, Bolivia's third most-spoken language

© Aizar RALDES / AFP

Most of her clients are women, many seeking her counsel after experiencing a wide range of sex-based violence.

"I have seen all kinds of bruises, punches in the eye, in other words, all kinds of abuse," she told AFP.

Although there are no statistics on Indigenous victims of gender-based violence, "the Aymara world... is part of a national reality where there is a strong tradition of machismo since time immemorial," said historian Sayuri Loza.

In 2023, Bolivia registered 51,000 complaints of physical, sexual, psychological and economic abuse against women. The cases include 81 femicides, according to data from the prosecutor's office.

'They defended the man'

Aguilar decided to become an attorney after experiencing stigma and discrimination at home and within the legal system.

Only 10 percent of the almost 800,000 women who identify as Aymara in Bolivia access higher education, according to a study by the Catholic University 

© Aizar RALDES / AFP

She suffered physical violence and economic abuse at the hands of her ex-husband, a descendant of the Aymara people who grew up in the city and was university educated.

He and his family would often insult her, she said, using derogatory terms aimed at Indigenous women.

They separated in 2005, but it was a struggle to find a lawyer who would handle her divorce.

She said she spoke to "about four, but I couldn't make myself clear... and they defended the man."

Aguilar herself only learned to speak Spanish informally after moving to La Paz at the age of 16 from her home in Chachapoya, 170 kilometers (105 miles) away.

A few years after her divorce, she entered the Public University of El Alto, a city adjacent to the Bolivian capital, where she obtained her law degree in 2012, studying in Spanish.

Only 10 percent of the almost 800,000 women who identify as Aymara in Bolivia access higher education, according to a study by the Catholic University.
Divorce to property spats

Now, Aguilar has a small office in front of the El Alto Court of Justice, with a sign outside reading: "If I am not in, call."

When she is not at work as a lawyer, Bertha Aguilar spends time in her corn and potato fields on the shores of Lake Titicaca 

© Aizar RALDES / AFP

When she is not litigating, she tends to her small farm in Chachapoya, but she never rejects an incoming call.

"In the courts ... there are many women who cannot speak Spanish," she said.

She is currently handling 40 cases, from women in divorce proceedings to property conflicts, among others.

"Nayax aka divorciox doctorat mistunap munta" -- (I want that divorce to come through), client Silveria Palle, 57, says in Aymara, desperate to escape a partner who has beaten her for years.

Aguilar has the same message for all of her clients: "If I escaped the abuse... why can't you?

© 2024 AFP

SPORTS RITUALS

'Curse of the Colonel' KFC statue disposed of in Japan

Tokyo (AFP) – A plastic statue of Kentucky Fried Chicken's founder Colonel Sanders that was a lucky charm for superstitious Japanese baseball fans has been "disposed of" 15 years after being dredged out of an Osaka river, the firm said.


Issued on: 20/03/2024 

A statue of Colonel Sanders after it was recovered from the sludge of a river in Osaka, Japan on March 11, 2009 

Jubilant supporters of Osaka's Hanshin Tigers, known for being Japan's most passionate baseball fans, flung the effigy -- and themselves -- into the dirty Dotonbori river in 1985 after winning Japan's version of the World Series.

But as the years went by and the Tigers' fortunes faltered, a belief took hold among fans dubbed the "Curse of the Colonel" that success would only return if the life-sized doll was recovered.

The bearded statue was finally found during construction work in 2009 and salvaged, covered in sludge and missing his glasses and left hand. It was cleaned up, blessed by a priest and put on display.

The alleged jinx took some time to be exorcised, but finally last year the Tigers won the Japan Series again after a 38-year wait, prompting wild celebrations and more jumping into the river.

KFC said on Tuesday that the statue was now "too dilapidated to maintain" and would be disposed of.

But first, a ritual "showing our gratitude" was held at a temple and attended by KFC's Japan president Takayuki Hanji, who offered Japanese sake along with the chain's signature fried chicken.

© 2024 AFP

SPIRIT ANIMAL

Thai PM meets $500,000 albino buffalo in 'soft power' push

Bangkok (AFP) – Thai Prime Minister Srettha Thavisin took the bull by the horns Wednesday as he welcomed an unusual visitor to his offices -- an enormous white buffalo that recently sold for $500,000.


Issued on: 20/03/2024 

Bulky bovine Ko Muang Phet, who recently sold for about $500,000, was welcomed to Thailand's Government House 

© Lillian SUWANRUMPHA / AFP

The bulky bovine, named Ko Muang Phet, was renowned in Thai farming circles as a stud animal but hit the mainstream last week with its big-ticket sale, and earned a trip to Government House to meet Srettha.

Standing 1.8 metres (six feet) tall, the four-year-old albino from western Phetchaburi province weighs 1.4 tonnes -- almost three times more than the average buffalo.

Ko Muang Phet has already become a minor TV star, featuring in an episode of the hugely popular "Sound From The Field Of Love" soap opera.

Srettha -- no shorty himself at 1.92 metres tall -- went nose-to-nose with the horned celebrity in front of Government House.

ADVERTISING


"I had no idea we had such beautiful buffalo," Srettha told gathered reporters, gingerly patting one of the creature's huge curved horns.

Thai Prime Minister Srettha Thavisin praised the albino buffalo as 'beautiful' 

© Lillian SUWANRUMPHA / AFP

"Are there more like this?"

Water buffalo are ubiquitous in the Thai countryside, prized as sturdy and reliable farm animals, and albino specimens are particularly valuable because of their rarity.

And big bulls are big business -- last year a farmer in northern Phitsanulok province reportedly sold his 1.4-tonne bull for more than $1.45 million.

In a post on X, formerly Twitter, Srettha said the Thai Buffalo Breeding Association had asked the government to promote the animals as a tool of "soft power".

Ko Muang Phet's delighted owner Jintanat Limtongkul was all for the idea.

"I want people to get the know buffalo more. Thai people used to be close to agriculture and buffalo, but our lifestyle nowadays has distanced us," he told reporters at Government House.

Water buffalo are ubiquitous in the Thai countryside, prized as sturdy and reliable farm animals

 © Lillian SUWANRUMPHA / AFP

He pledged to bring four giant buffalo to meet tourists at Bangkok's backpacker hotspot of Khao San Road next month for Songkran -- the Thai new year festival which sees thousands of revellers soak one another in the streets in a mass water fight.

© 2024 AFP

SPACE

Creeping ice clouding vision of Europe space telescope Euclid

Paris (AFP) – Scientists are trying to melt a thin layer of ice that is increasingly clouding the vision of the "dark universe detective" space telescope Euclid, the European Space Agency said on Tuesday.

Issued on: 19/03/2024 - 

Stars sparkle in one of the first images taken by Euclid -- but ice is clouding the space telescope's vision

 © Handout / ESA/Euclid/Euclid Consortium/NASA/AFP/File

It is the latest of several technical setbacks for the wide-eyed telescope, which blasted off into space in July on a mission to chart a third of the sky.

By doing so, the ESA hopes Euclid will reveal out more about the nature of dark matter and dark energy, which are thought to make up 95 percent of the universe but remain shrouded in mystery.

During checks in November, the team on the ground first noticed that they were losing a little light coming into the telescope's visible light imager, Euclid instrument operations scientist Ralf Kohley told AFP.

After digging into the data, they believe the problem is a layer of ice -- thought to be just the width of a strand of DNA -- that is building up on the telescope's optical surfaces.

"It's a big problem," Kohley acknowledged.

But researchers have been working on it, Kohley said, adding that he had no doubt Euclid would be able to finish its mission.

Ice clouds observations by Europe Euclid telescope © / AFP

Keeping out water is a common problem for all spacecraft.

Despite best efforts on the ground, a tiny amount of water absorbed during a spacecraft's assembly on Earth can smuggle its way to space.

Faced with the cold vastness of space, the water molecules freeze to the first surface they can -- in this case, some may have landed on the Euclid's mirrors.
Thin ice

Shortly after the telescope launched, scientists used its on-board heaters to heat up everything on the spacecraft, hoping to blast out any potential water.

This could be done again.

"But heating out everything is very disruptive for the mission," Kohley said.

Because heat expands most materials, warming up the whole spacecraft involves careful recalibration.

One of the first images released from Euclid, which depicts the Horsehead Nebula 

© Handout / ESA/Euclid/Euclid Consortium/NASA/AFP

It would take at least a month to get the telescope back to its job surveying the sky, Kohley said.

So last week, the ESA started warming just two of the telescope's mirrors, turning the temperature up just enough to hopefully melt away the ice.

This "minimally invasive" partial warming will last until Thursday, Kohley said.

The scientists may not know if it works until mid-April.

Part of the problem is that the scientists do not know exactly where the ice is accumulating -- or how much there is.

And even if the scientists do manage to melt the ice, it could come back over time, Kohley warned.

If the partial warming plan fails, the ESA will have to heat up the whole spacecraft.

If the team have to do this every year during the telescope's planned-six year mission it could result in a six-month delay, Kohley said.

The Euclid spacecraft seen in France before it was launched last year

 © Valery HACHE / AFP/File

"But that's all speculation," he said.

"For the moment, we have to wait and see -- and hope we can rid of this problem in a more elegant fashion."

It is not the first problem for Euclid.

Cosmic rays previously confused the spacecraft's fine guidance sensor, which required a complicated software update.

Some unwanted sunlight also interfered with its observations, a problem solved by slightly rotating the telescope, Kohley said.

However nothing can be done about particularly strong solar flares occasionally projecting X-ray images on the visible imager.

Euclid, which the ESA calls its "dark universe detective," officially started its survey last month.

Its first images, released in November, revealed swirling galaxies bursting with colour in the distant cosmos.

© 2024 AFP

ICYMI

Vietnam farmers struggle for fresh water as drought brings salinisation

Bến Tre (Vietnam) (AFP) – Every day, farmer Nguyen Hoai Thuong prays in vain for rain to fall on the cracked dry earth of her garden in Vietnam's Mekong Delta -- the country's "rice bowl" agricultural heartland.


Issued on: 20/03/2024 - 

A farmer sits in a drought-stricken rice field in Vietnam's southern Ben Tre province, which is plagued by intruding salt water 

© Nhac NGUYEN / AFP

A blazing month-long heatwave has brought drought, parching the land in Thuong's home of Ben Tre province, 130 kilometres (80 miles) south of business hub Ho Chi Minh City.

The area is crisscrossed by waterways, but the prolonged heatwave and lack of rain are causing salinisation -- the intrusion of salt water from the sea -- badly affecting crops in a region vital to feeding the nation of 90 million people.

"It's a waste leaving the rice field empty like this because we don't have fresh water. I have to change to raising cows instead," 31-year-old farmer Thuong told AFP from her burning hot village, where ground that should be lush wet rice paddy stands cracked and dry.

Without rain, her family has no fresh water for even domestic use, and last month she was forced to buy some from her neighbour for 500,000 dong ($20).

"We don't have a fresh underground water source to use while the surface water is salty," she said as her father pumped water from a mobile container into the family's 1,000-litre storage tank.

Once lush rice paddies in southern Vietnam now stand cracked and dry amid a blazing heatwave

 © Nhac NGUYEN / AFP

The water Thuong bought is strictly for domestic use, from drinking, cooking to bathing, not for the crops.

The Mekong Delta faces saltwater intrusion every year, but more intense hot weather and rising sea levels -- both driven by climate change -- are increasing the risk.

Weather officials say the delta is suffering an unusually long heatwave this year, leading to drought in several areas, low water levels in canals and saltwater intruding -- and they warn the worst may yet be to come.
$3 billion in crops lost

Saltwater levels are often higher in the dry season but they are intensifying due to rising sea levels, droughts, tidal fluctuations, and a lack of upstream freshwater.

A young boy collects fresh water from a tank in Ben Tre province, where some are now forced to buy water for even domestic needs 

\© Nhac NGUYEN / AFP

Research published last week said the delta, which provides food and livelihoods for tens of millions of people, faces nearly $3 billion a year in crop losses as more saltwater seeps into arable land.

Around 80,000 hectares of rice and fruit farms could be impacted by salinisation, according to the study from the Water Resources Science Institute under the environment ministry.

Ben Tre province, where Thuong's village is located, suffered about $472 million in losses each year from 2020 to 2023, according to the study.

"I had to reduce cultivation from three to only two rice crops each year. All water in my area has been too salty to be used for anything," farmer Phan Thanh Trung told AFP from one of his fields.

His neighbour Nguyen Van Hung is luckier -- he has an abundant underground source for fresh water he can use to make money.

"During time of drought and saline intrusion, I sell my fresh water to the neighbours. But to tell the truth, I am not happy," Hung said.

"Adverse weather patterns have really hit us hard."

tmh-nhac/pdw/cwl

© 2024 AFP

Planet 'on the brink' as UN agency warns new heat records are likely in 2024

Global temperatures "smashed" heat records last year, as heatwaves stalked oceans and glaciers suffered record ice loss, the United Nations said Tuesday – warning 2024 was likely to be even hotter.


Issued on: 19/03/2024 - 

01:32The World Meteorological Organization confirmed that 2023 was by far the hottest year ever recorded. 

By: NEWS WIRES|

Video by: Antonia KERRIGAN

The annual State of the Climate report by the UN weather and climate agency confirmed preliminary data showing 2023 was by far the hottest year ever recorded.

And last year capped off "the warmest 10-year period on record", the World Meteorological Organization said, with even hotter temperatures expected.

"There is a high probability that 2024 will again break the record of 2023", WMO climate monitoring chief Omar Baddour told reporters.

Reacting to the report, UN chief Antonio Guterres said it showed "a planet on the brink".

"Earth's issuing a distress call," he said in a video message, pointing out that "fossil fuel pollution is sending climate chaos off the charts", and warning that "changes are speeding up".

The WMO said that last year the average near-surface temperature was 1.45 degrees Celsius above pre-industrial levels – dangerously close to the critical 1.5-degree threshold that countries agreed to avoid passing in the 2015 Paris climate accords.

'Red alert'

"I am now sounding the red alert about the state of the climate," Saulo told reporters, lamenting that "2023 set new records for every single climate indicator".

The organisation said many of the records were "smashed" and that the numbers "gave ominous new significance to the phrase 'off the charts'."

"What we witnessed in 2023, especially with the unprecedented ocean warmth, glacier retreat and Antarctic sea ice loss, is cause for particular concern," Saulo said.

Read more‘Every tenth of a degree matters’: UN climate report is a call for action, not despair

One especially worrying finding was that marine heatwaves gripped nearly a third of the global ocean on an average day last year.

And by the end of 2023, more than 90 percent of the ocean had experienced heatwave conditions at some point during the year, the WMO said.

More frequent and intense marine heatwaves will have "profound negative repercussions for marine ecosystems and coral reefs", it warned.

Meanwhile key glaciers worldwide suffered the largest loss of ice since records began in 1950, "driven by extreme melt in both western North America and Europe".

In Switzerland, where the WMO is based, Alpine glaciers lost 10 percent of their remaining volume in the past two years alone, it said.

The Antarctic sea ice extent was also "by far the lowest on record", WMO said.
Rising sea levels

The maximum area at the end of the southern winter was around one million square kilometres below the previous record year – equivalent to the size of France and Germany combined, according to the report.

Ocean warming and the rapidly melting glaciers and ice sheets drove the sea level last year to its highest point since satellite records began in 1993, WMO said.

The global mean sea level rise over the past decade (2014-2023) was more than double the rate in the first decade of satellite records. 

© Luis Robayo, AFP file photo

The agency highlighted that the global mean sea level rise over the past decade (2014-2023) was more than double the rate in the first decade of satellite records.

The dramatic climate shifts, it said, are taking a heavy toll worldwide, fuelling extreme weather events, flooding and drought, which trigger displacement and drive up biodiversity loss and food insecurity.

"The climate crisis is THE defining challenge that humanity faces and is closely intertwined with the inequality crisis," Saulo said.
'Glimmer of hope'

The WMO did highlight one "glimmer of hope": surging renewable energy generation.

Last year, renewable energy generation capacity – mainly from solar, wind and hydropower – increased by nearly 50 percent from 2022, it said.

The report sparked a flood of reactions and calls for urgent action.

"Our only response must be to stop burning fossil fuels so that the damage can be limited," said Martin Siegert, a geosciences professor at the University of Exeter.

Jeffrey Kargel, a senior scientist at the Planetary Science Institute, stressed that the dramatic climae shifts "do not connote the inevitable doom of civilisation".

WMO Secretary-General Celeste Saulo presented the organisation's annual state of the climate report. © Fabrice Coffrini, AFP

The outcome, he said, "depends on how people and governments change or don't change behaviours".


Daily newsletterReceive essential international news every morningSubscribe

Saulo acknowledged that the cost of climate action might seem high.

"But the cost of climate inaction is much higher," she said. "The worst thing would be to do nothing."

Guterres also emphasised that there was still time to "avoid the worst of climate chaos".

"But leaders must step up and act – now."

(AFP)

European plastics industry 'in trouble' as market share falls

Paris (AFP) – Europe's share of global plastics production has fallen while China's output now accounts for a third, an industry report showed Tuesday.

Issued on: 19/03/2024 - 

Europe produced 58.8 million tonnes of plastics in 2022 

© Thomas SAMSON / AFP/File

Europe's share of global production fell from 22 percent in 2006 to 14 percent in 2022, according to an annual report by Plastics Europe.

China's share jumped from 21 percent to 32 percent over the same period, the report showed.

"Our European plastics industry is in trouble," said Jean-Yves Daclin, the head of Plastics Europe operations in France.

The group's "Circular Economy for Plastics" report warned of a "a growing competitiveness gap between Europe and the rest of the world".

The decline is linked to rising imports from China and the United States in recent years, Daclin said.

The European Union's 27 member countries, together with Britain, Norway and Switzerland, produced 58.8 million tonnes of plastics in 2022.

North America's global share has also fallen, dropping from 24 percent in 2006 to 17 percent in 2022.

Excluding China and Japan, the rest of Asia, Oceania, Turkey and Ukraine accounted for 19 percent of the global market in 2022 compared with 14 percent in 2006.

The Middle East and Africa regions have also taken a bigger slice, rising from a combined six percent to nine percent.

Japan's share fell by half to three percent while Latin American dropped slightly to four percent.

The Plastics Europe report also said that 26.9 percent of European plastics waste is now recycled.

Some 175 countries have agreed to conclude by 2024 a binding agreement to combat plastic pollution.

Kenya hosted the latest negotiations in November, which ended with disagreement about how the pact should work and frustration from environment groups over delays and lack of progress.

© 2024 AFP

Renault CEO urges 'Marshall Plan' for Europe electric vehicles

ALL CAPITALI$M IS STATE CAPITALI$M

Paris (AFP) – The chief executive of French automaker Renault called Tuesday for a European "Marshall Plan" to accelerate the adoption of electric vehicles and reduce carbon emissions in the face of Chinese competition.

Issued on: 19/03/2024 -

Renault is already pushing strongly into the small electric vehicle segment with the launch of its retro R5 E-Tech model 

© Fabrice COFFRINI / AFP/File

The post-WWII US programme helped rebuild Western European economies, and Luca de Meo argued for a similar effort in a series of proposals made to launch a policy debate ahead of European parliamentary elections in June.

"A European Marshall Plan could be put in place to accelerate parc renewal and thus drastically reduce CO2 emissions," he wrote.

He likened it to the EU's post-Covid recovery plan, saying a special European fund could finance incentives for the purchase of new or used electric vehicles (EVs).

Europe aims to phase out the sale of traditional internal combustion engine vehicles by 2035 as part of its efforts to reach carbon neutrality by 2050.

But with "an onslaught of electric vehicles from China", de Meo said the European automotive sector needed the EU to develop an industrial strategy, much like it did to encourage the development of planemaker Airbus, and as the Chinese have done for EVs.

In particular he called for the creation of "green economic zones" like China's special economic zones, with companies receiving additional subsidies and tax breaks to encourage the rapid development of EVs.

He also called for cooperative efforts to build small and affordable vehicles in Europe.

"These cars would also significantly improve air quality in cities," wrote de Meo, noting that one city in four suffers from poor air quality, with 39 percent of emissions being caused by road traffic.

Size also matters, both in terms of environmental impact and cost.

"Driving around every day in an electric vehicle weighing 2.5 tonnes is clearly an environmental nonsense," de Meo said.

Meanwhile, compact cars are 20 to 30 percent cheaper to build, he added.

But efforts to lower the prices of small city cars are needed, as they have more than doubled over the past two decades while wages have risen much less, as are incentives and financing options to ensure consumers can switch to EVs.

He also suggested that Europe's 200 largest cities adopt incentives like offering free access for small zero-emission cars and vans, while making other vehicle owners pay.

© 2024 AFP

Two years on, what does the Ukraine war mean for the Middle East?

Analysis: Russia's invasion of Ukraine has accelerated East-West bifurcation in an increasingly multipolar world, with Arab states striking a delicate balance

The deadliest conflict in Europe since 1945 rages on in its third year. So far, tens of thousands of Russian and Ukrainian soldiers have lost their lives in this war.

Many Ukrainian cities are destroyed while millions of displaced Ukrainians live as refugees in other countries. Moscow remains committed to achieving its objectives in this war while Washington’s continued military support for Ukraine is in question amid an election year in the US.

For Arab states, Russia’s overt invasion of Ukraine has represented both challenges and opportunities. This war has served to accelerate East-West bifurcation in an increasingly multipolar world, requiring Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) members to strike delicate balancing acts when navigating shifts in the global geopolitical order.

The conditions created by the shock of 24 February 2022 empowered GCC states in various ways. Their economies benefited from record revenues attributed to high oil prices.

Furthermore, the challenges before Western policymakers reinforced the centrality of Gulf Arab countries such as Saudi Arabia in terms of global energy, security, and geopolitics, underscoring Washington, London, and European capitals’ need to involve Riyadh in the formulation of their responses to global challenges of the 21st century.

"For Arab states, Russia's overt invasion of Ukraine has represented both challenges and opportunities"

In November 2019, Joe Biden, as a presidential candidate, called Saudi Arabia a “pariah” and he refused to speak directly with Crown Prince and Prime Minister Mohammed bin Salman (MbS) throughout the start of his term. Yet, by July 2022 Biden controversially visited Jeddah to meet with MbS.

One of the White House’s objectives behind that trip was to try to pull Saudi Arabia away from Russia’s orbit of influence several months after Moscow launched its full-scale invasion of Ukraine. It is reasonable to interpret Biden’s decision to go to Jeddah within the context of Saudi Arabia being successful in terms of maximising the benefits afforded to the Kingdom in an increasingly multipolar world defined by great power competition.

Put simply, the Ukraine war helped the Saudis make Washington view the US-Saudi partnership differently. Rather than assuming that Saudi Arabia depends on the US, and that Washington can make demands of Riyadh, multipolarity has afforded Saudi Arabia the means to do more hedging amid a time of intensifying East-West animosity while reinforcing to the US how much Washington needs Riyadh - arguably as much as vice versa.

At the same time, the Ukraine war also created instability that negatively impacted GCC members. For example, massive interruptions to supply chains posed serious challenges to the Gulf Arab states, especially concerning food security.

RELATED

How the UAE became Russia's safe haven for evading sanctions

Analysis

Ahmed Alqarout

Divergent positions within the Gulf

The six GCC states have not all had identical responses to Russia’s aggression toward Ukraine. On one side of the spectrum, the United Arab Emirates (UAE) and Saudi Arabia have been most accommodating of Russian President Vladimir Putin’s government since February 2022.

On the opposite side, Kuwait and Qatar have been most critical of Russia’s violations of Ukraine’s territorial integrity and sovereign rights. Oman and Bahrain have been in the middle. Nonetheless, all six GCC members have spent the past two years attempting to maintain their close relations with both Moscow and the West.

“Given its history, it is unsurprising that Kuwait has been the most outspoken against Russia's invasion of Ukraine and most supportive of Western states' responses,” Dr Neil Quilliam, an associate fellow in the Middle East and North Africa program at Chatham House, said in an interview with The New Arab.

“Similarly, Qatar has taken a strong position in favour of Ukraine. For the other GCC states, however, Russia's invasion of Ukraine is ‘somebody else’s issue’- it is either seen as a European or NATO issue and one that does not directly affect the Gulf, though the consequences of the invasion, of course, have been felt all over,” he added.

“The Gulf states do not subscribe to Western narratives about Russia’s move posing a challenge to the rules-based order or see it to be of major consequence and this should be no surprise, as the region has experienced punishing wars and occupations for the past 100 years and more. Consequently, it is just another war.”

No GCC state has implemented any of the West's sanctions on Russia since Moscow's invasion. 

A careful balancing act

As a non-permanent member of the UN Security Council, the UAE joined China and India on 25 February 2022 in abstaining on a US-drafted resolution condemning Russia’s aggression toward Ukraine.

Nonetheless, all six GCC members have consistently voted with the West in UN General Assembly resolutions that called out Moscow for its invasion, occupation, and annexation of Ukrainian territory.

Gulf Arab officials have also diplomatically engaged their Ukrainian counterparts, including President Volodymyr Zelenskyy, and given Ukraine much humanitarian and non-lethal assistance over the past two years. Indeed, Zelenskyy’s been in Saudi Arabia more than once since the full-fledged Russian invasion and many important officials from GCC states have come to Kyiv amid this war.

At the same time, no GCC state implemented any of the West’s sanctions on Russia. The UAE President Mohammed bin Zayed along with other leaders and high-ranking officials from Gulf Arab states have made trips to Moscow since February 2022. Late last year, Putin was a welcome guest in the UAE and Saudi Arabia.

"The Gulf states do not subscribe to Western narratives about Russia's move posing a challenge to the rules-based order or see it to be of major consequence"

Riyadh and Abu Dhabi, in particular, have maintained close working relations with Moscow across a host of domains. Saudi-Russian energy cooperation via OPEC+ is a case in point. The UAE also played a major role in enabling Russia to weather the West’s financial warfare. Since February 2022, Emirati authorities have permitted Russian oligarchs and Kremlin-linked figures to park their wealth in Dubai.

As the most Russia-friendly GCC member, the UAE’s willingness to play this role in helping Moscow withstand Western pressure stands to contribute to the long-term strengthening of the Abu Dhabi-Moscow partnership.

“From the onset of the Ukraine war, Gulf States - individually, not collectively - had made conscious and calculated decisions to not take strong positions on the conflict,” Dr Mira al-Hussein, an Emirati sociologist and research fellow at the Alwaleed bin Talal Centre, University of Edinburgh, told TNA.

“As the US’ focus on the region began to gradually wane, Gulf states continued to wisely hedge on other regional powers, while simultaneously attempting to re-engage the US and ensure a prolonged security commitment to the region,” she added.

RELATED

How the Ukraine war reshaped Russia and Iran's military ties

Analysis

Paul Iddon

“If there is a shift in the balance in Moscow's favour because of diminishing Western support for Ukraine, then Gulf states, such as Saudi Arabia and the UAE, will feel vindicated for hedging against US commitment to their security,” said Dr Quilliam.

“At the same time, it will reinforce the idea that Russia is a dependable and enduring partner and that it has been seen to support its allies, such as Syria, through thick and thin. In other words, a shift in the balance in Moscow's favour would only serve to reconfirm Gulf Arab leader fears that they can no longer rely upon the US and encourage them to hedge further with Russia and China.”

Although Washington and some other Western capitals sought to bring GCC members into closer alignment with NATO and Ukraine against Russia, Gulf Arab officials seem to have played their cards wisely from a strategic standpoint.

With the war in Ukraine now essentially a stalemate with neither side having achieved a decisive victory, staying relatively neutral seems to have been a decision that served the long-term national interests of GCC states.

The UAE and Saudi Arabia have been most accommodating of Russian President Vladimir Putin’s government since Moscow's invasion. 


As Dr al-Hussein explained, the Gulf Arab leaders and policymakers look at the current state of this war in Ukraine and are “reassured that their choice to remain neutral was rational and wise”.

Despite the GCC states remaining relatively neutral in this conflict, it can be said that these six Arab countries have had no choice but to view Russia as a global power with nuclear weapons and Ukraine as a much less powerful country on the international stage.

The foreign policy strategies of the GCC states, particularly Saudi Arabia and the UAE, vis-à-vis the Ukraine war have reflected their vested interests in deepening ties with Moscow. Officials in Kyiv have taken note of this, which has probably left Ukraine somewhat suspicious of GCC states - particularly those which most accommodated the Kremlin after the shock of 24 February 2022.

That said, Kyiv has joined the West in taking advantage of Saudi and Emirati diplomatic bridges to Moscow throughout this conflict. Underscored by Abu Dhabi, Doha, and Riyadh’s mediation roles in the December 2022 Brittney Griner-Viktor Bout exchange, prisoners of war swaps, and the reunification of families, Gulf capitals have leveraged their relative neutrality to help the West, Ukraine, and Russia.

“The GCC countries have used their balancing act between Moscow and Kyiv to boost their strategic autonomy versus the US and present themselves as a mainstay for multipolarity,” Ahmed Aboudouh, an associate fellow with the Chatham House and a non-resident fellow with the Atlantic Council, told TNA.

“The past two years have been remarkable in the sense that they helped GCC countries, especially Saudi Arabia, the UAE, and Qatar, to learn to deal with both sides of the conflict and build political clout on both sides that allows these countries to bring both to a middle ground on peripheral issues such as prisoner swaps,” he added.

"The GCC countries have used their balancing act between Moscow and Kyiv to boost their strategic autonomy versus the US and present themselves as a mainstay for multipolarity"
Balancing ties with Russia and the West

Despite Saudi Arabia and the UAE helping their Western partners with prisoner swaps and hostage releases, their overall accommodation of Russia since February 2022 has fuelled a degree of tension between those two Gulf states, on one side, and the US and other western powers, on the other. However, such tension related to the Ukraine war has not led to any major crisis in either Saudi Arabia or the UAE’s relationship with Washington.

“The US understands the rationality behind Gulf states’ neutrality on this war. There has not been any real effort on Washington’s part to penalise those who facilitate Russia's sanction avoidance, which calls into question the extent to which the US and Europe are interested in isolating Russia, or their desire to further antagonise Gulf states,” Dr al-Hussein told TNA.

Throughout the future, however, there might be some lasting bitterness in the West about these GCC members taking relatively non-aligned positions toward Russia’s full-fledged invasion of Ukraine. But given how quickly new developments on the international stage unfold and how short attention spans are in Washington and other Western capitals, it is not clear how long that bitterness will last.

At the end of the day, the US and other Western countries have to worry about more than Ukraine, and they count on their relationships with Riyadh and Abu Dhabi for help with countless international challenges from Afghanistan to Sudan.

RELATED

Will Arab-Israeli normalisation survive the Gaza war?

Analysis

Giorgio Cafiero

Gulf Arab statesmen focus on Gaza, not Ukraine

Gulf Arab policymakers are currently much more concerned about the Israeli war on Gaza than Russia’s aggression toward Ukraine. The mayhem in Gaza is impacting Arab societies in ways that Russia’s brutality in Ukraine does not.

Israel-Palestine is also much geographically closer to the Gulf than Ukraine, and for all GCC states the stakes are extremely high when it comes to the Gaza war’s spillover into Yemen, the Red Sea, and the Gulf of Aden.

Israel’s actions in Gaza have the potential to bring GCC states closer to Russia. This is mostly due to how easy it is for Moscow to present itself to the Arab-Islamic world as a power which differs from the US.

The Ukraine war has not led to any major crisis in either Saudi Arabia or the UAE's relationship with Washington. 

Instead of vetoing UN Security Council resolutions to spare Israel from any form of accountability for its crimes, Russia is busy depicting itself as a defender of the Palestinian cause.

“If anything, the war in Gaza accelerated the push for multipolarity as the US credibility and reliability received a blow in the region. While the US will remain the GCC’s main security partner, the double standards and reluctance to revamp its support to Israel creates an opening for Russia and China to advance their standing and rhetorical appeal in the Middle East and the Global South. This will not alter the regional status quo anytime soon, but it will pave the way for deeper ties with Moscow,” said Aboudouh.

As Dr al-Hussein told TNA, “Russia’s statements in support of Palestine in the UN Security Council meetings may serve as good PR for local Gulf consumption to promote Russia as a moral counterpart to the US, if necessary”.

Giorgio Cafiero is the CEO of Gulf State Analytics.
Follow him on Twitter: @GiorgioCafiero