Wednesday, March 20, 2024



When Palestine writes its story of liberation, its people’s sacrifices and resilience will prove to be its biggest strength

While the 'world of light' has collectively agreed to forget the oppression it wrought on our lands, our 'world of darkness' has vowed to always remember.
PRISM/DAWN
Published March 20, 2024 

My mother was recently travelling from Abbottabad to visit me in Lahore. On the bus, she found herself seated next to an overwhelmed mother and her four children. Before she knew it, she was acting loco parentis to two of the children, who were glued to her for the entire ride.

My mother asked one of the daughters which city she preferred, Lahore or Abbottabad. The girl, unable to distinguish between the two, deflected by saying, “aap ko pata hai Pakistan ko Allah miyan ne apne haathon se banaya hai?” (Do you know God has created Pakistan from his own hands?)

Nowadays, it’s considered unfashionable to have such romantically religious notions of how your state came to be, but something about her deflection hit a chord. A nation knows itself and its future through the story its people tell. Whether it’s the story of rising from the ashes of a once dominant empire or that a nation was carved onto the map by the hands of God Himself — each tale carries weight.
Civilised, barbarian, or savage —19th century’s distorted worldview

In much of the dark world, our nations were born with congenital bloodstains on their cheeks.

In the 19th century, nations were either civilised, barbarian, or savages. All white states were naturally civilised unless they seriously transgressed (that is, became communist) at which point they regressed to being barbarians. Barbarians were semi-civilised and could be interacted with the aim that they would at some point be dragged into civilisation kicking and screaming.

Savages were non-white and beyond the pale, they were no more than human, infantilised, and unrepresented in the community of states. These groups were challenged after the First World War when the devastation wrought by European infighting led the rest of the world to question the so-called superiority of the white world. But instead of changing the rules, everyone just wanted in.

Japan tried to join the League of Nations, asserting its distinction from other perceived ‘barbarians’, claiming to be far better than its neighbour, China, at the very least. Its plea was rejected. Arthur Balfour, who represented Britain at the conference, said that “it was true in a certain sense that all men of a particular nation were created equal; but not that a man in Central Africa was created equal to a European.”

The West was given powers of ‘tutelage’ after World War I over territories that were considered to not be ‘able to stand by themselves under the strenuous conditions of the modern world’ and so required help from ‘advanced nations who because of their resources, their experience, or their geographical position can best undertake this responsibility’.

How they achieved this advancement and how they acquired these resources and experience was left unsaid but one thing was clear: the architects had decided the world’s blueprints and we were in the outhouse with the promise of being allowed inside if we behaved.

The paradox of independence

Of course, we didn’t behave. From the early 20th century onwards, empires fell like dominos as new states emerged onto the international plane. But none of them were as polarising as the Algerian war against its ‘parent’ state, France.

Similar to the conversations taking place about Palestine and Hamas today, philosophers debated the necessity of armed violence in overthrowing a coloniser using brute force to maintain its hold. While the French state tortured and executed people, rebels planted bombs and killed innocents.

Frantz Fanon argued that the anti-colonial revolution must be violent, not only because it was effective, but also because it helped the colonised “shake off the paralysis of oppression and forge a new shared identity”.

The Algerian novelist and philosopher Albert Camus disagreed. When accepting his Nobel Prize for Literature in 1957, he emphasised that the struggle for independence is a plea for peace: “People are now planting bombs in the tramways of Algiers. My mother might be on one of those tramways. If that is justice, then I prefer my mother.”

While Camus was choosing his mother, these new states were figuring out how to be many people but one nation within borders they hadn’t chosen. Our territorial integrity, so hard won, was to be jealously guarded for anyone wanting to break it up. And in many instances, like Bangladesh, we tried to preserve it by recreating the oppression we had just fought.

Meanwhile, the mills of international politics kept churning and the West was working to ensure that it maintained its domination through an economic empire. Our former colonisers became ‘sugar daddies’ getting us hooked on aid, trapping us in debt cycles, and pillorying us with talk of human rights. We were left working to create justice in a sieve.

Commitment to statehood

But at least we were free, politically if not economically, in part if not entirely; we were nations. States are legal fictions, but without them, we are exiled spirits in conquered countries searching for a home. When Israel casts its struggle as that between the ‘children of light and the children of darkness, between humanity and the law of a jungle’ it echoes archaic notions of savage, uncivilised nations.

Mahmoud Darwish wrote in one of his poems that Palestinians live in a ‘country of words’, with no state and no army. But the wealth of the nation they create will be based on the limitless deposits of its peoples’ sacrifice; their resilience will be its crude oil, for “few states on earth can claim the degree and intensity of allegiance which the people of the West Bank and the Gaza Strip manifest, day after bloody day, to the State of Palestine”.

Someone once said a nation was a group of people who have agreed to collectively remember and forget the same things. While the ‘world of light’ has collectively agreed to forget the oppression it wrought on our lands, our ‘world of darkness’ has vowed to always remember.

In decolonising our states, and in creating our nations, we remade the entire world. And we called our land our home.

Perhaps the most important story to tell ourselves about our homelands — whether we freed ourselves from violence or not, with the help of God or not — is to never, ever recall the moment we became independent with indifference. And if we do falter at some point, let the children of Palestine serve as a reminder of the cost of freedom today.

Ayesha Malik is an international lawyer and is Deputy Director at the Research Society of International Law where she runs the Conflict Law Centre.



Clans step in to protect Gaza aid

Reuters Published March 20, 2024 

Palestinians gather to receive free food on Tuesday, even as Gaza residents face alarming levels of hunger during the month of Ramazan.—Reuters


CAIRO: Armed and masked men from an array of clans and factions have started providing security to aid convoys in Gaza, Palestinian officials and sources in the Hamas group say.

Video footage obtained by Reuters showed a convoy of trucks entering Gaza City with foreign aid overnight, watched by several men armed with AK-47 assault rifles and others wielding sticks.

With Israeli forces sworn to eliminating Hamas since its deadly Oct 7 raid on Israel, it has become highly risky for anyone linked to the group to emerge into the open to provide security for aid deliveries to desperate civilians.

So numerous clans, civil society groups and factions — including Fatah — have stepped in to help provide security for the aid convoys, according to the Palestinian officials and Hamas sources.

With public order strained, safe distribution of supplies becomes increasingly hard to guarantee

They did not identify the clans and factions, but said Hamas’ ability to rally such groups behind it over security showed it retains influence, and that efforts by Israel to build its own administrative system to keep order in Gaza were being resisted.

“Israel’s plan to find some clans to collaborate with its pilot projects of finding an alternative to Hamas didn’t succeed but it also showed that Palestinian resistance factions are the only ones who can run the show, in one way or another,” said a Palestinian official who asked not to be named.

An Israeli military spokesperson declined comment, saying specific rules of engagement in an active war zone could not be publicly discussed.

Israel’s offensive in Gaza has killed over 30,000 Palestinians, according to Gaza health officials, and reduced much of the enclave to rubble.

Hamas, which has run Gaza since 2007, has built its popularity on social services, education programmes and charities it offers impoverished Gazans.

With public order strained and civil police having concerns about providing security for fear of being targeted by the Israeli military, the safe distribution of supplies has become increasingly hard to guarantee.

Juliette Touma, spokesperson for the UN refugee agency UNRWA, had no information about masked men securing convoys.

Jamie McGoldrick, UN Humanitarian Coordinator for the Occupied Palestinian Territory, said the United Nations was not working with clans. “We’ve been trying to get the Blue Police (Palestinian civil police) back on track again. There have been a number of incidents where the blue police have been targeted by Israel, because they regard them as part of the Hamas infrastructure,” he said.

“And so we are trying to find the best way suitable to have delivery of assistance into the north and other parts of Gaza Strip. That is a combination of using community groups, etc. And where we can use the police in a discreet manner as well.”

Gaza has large traditional family clans, affiliated with political factions, including Hamas and Fatah, which dominates the Palestinian Authority in the Israeli-occupied West Bank.

Some clan leaders have said they cannot take the place of UN relief agencies helping Palestinian refugees, or be a substitute for local authorities.

Published in Dawn, March 20th, 2024

PAKISTAN

Customers versus clients

Umair Javed 
DAWN
March 18, 2024 




WHILE service delivery in Pakistan has rarely been carried out with the explicit intention of pro-poor redistribution, no domain exemplifies this trend more than urban development. If, periodically, there is at least some effort to improve public-sector health and education and make them more accessible to the poor, rarely do we see any such effort on important urban issues such as transport, clean drinking water, sanitation, solid waste management, and housing.

If anything, urban development in Pakistan is characterised by the exact opposite, ie, redistribution towards the well-off. Nothing captures this better than seven decades of housing policy. For the first few decades after statehood, much of the government’s focus in this sector was towards developing suburban land and allotting it to high- and mid-ranking state employees at low prices.

The expansion of Lahore, for example, from the 1950s to the 1990s through schemes such as Gulberg, Samanabad, Garden Town, Allama Iqbal Town, and Johar Town is characterised exactly by this distinct ‘socialism for the well-off’ phenomenon.

Since the 1990s, the state’s urban policy has fallen in line with trends of neoliberalisation elsewhere and encouraged private sector or military-run development of a type which almost exclusively caters to upper and middle-income households. Now, households with sufficient savings can invest in properties, ride speculative bubbles to make further profits, and ultimately buy plots of land when they wish to build a house.


There is something dystopic about the fact that two children born a few hundred metres apart can have drastically different biological development.

What happens to families who don’t have that initial capital to enter the private-sector housing market? Given Pakistan’s current income levels, such households naturally constitute the overwhelming majority. They are, instead, compelled to turn to alternatives, such as informal or unregularised settlements, or the housing stock, ie, homestead, of former villages that have been engulfed by expanding cities.

These settlements, and their contrast with schemes and societies developed by the private sector or the military, offer the clearest evidence of entrenched inequality in urban Pakistan. In particular, I want to focus on two inter-linked aspects of this inequality that signal a worsening trend. The first is inequality in the provision of services. And the second, and relatedly, is inequality in the form and type of citizenship that is being cultivated in Pakistani cities.

The first type of inequality, that of services, is visible to anyone who has ever stepped into an informal or ex-village settlement. Above the ground, solid waste management services rarely keep up with actual demand, green public spaces are non-existent, and road and street infrastructure often lie in poor condition.

And yet, an even bigger problem lies underneath. As excellent, recent work in low-income settlements of Lahore by Action Research Collective (ARC) shows, piped drinking water contamination is extremely widespread. Faecal matter contaminates drinking water due to a mixing with sewage lines, leading to a range of health complications.

A recent health camp carried out by ARC in a former village settlement in Lahore showed that children growing up in communities with poor water and sanitation services face serious issues of stunting and other related developmental ailments. This is backed up through research from other areas of the country by Ghazala Mansuri and others, who conclusively show that Pakistan’s stunting issue is a water and sanitation crisis, rather than one of nutrition alone.

There is, then, something truly dystopic about the fact that two children born a few hundred metres apart (such as in DHA and the homestead of a village whose agricultural land DHA is built on) can have such drastically different biological development, let alone life opportunities.

Inequality in provision of services brings us to a second type of inequality, which is that of citizenship. Since the 1990s, Pakistani cities have seen the emergence of two parallel models of urban citizenship, even though all residents are, legally speaking, citizens of the same country.

The first model of urban citizenship is what we call citizenship of customers or consumers. This type is found in planned schemes catering to high- and middle-income households. Here, delivery of basic services such as water, sanitation, and trash management, is administered through a logic of customer service. Residents of planned schemes are seen as customers. They pay some amount on a regular basis, through service fees and property taxes, and get something in return. If there is service failure of some sort, customers of these schemes can call up a helpline and shout at some low-level government or private functionary.

Hidden in this exchange are usually hefty government subsidies for richer households. These exist in the form of almost-free access to groundwater, trunk sewage infrastructure laid by the government, and car-friendly road infrastructure (flyovers, ring roads, underpasses) that connects these schemes to city centres.

The second model of urban citizenship is citizenship through patronage. This type is found in settlements of the poor, whether they are informal, unregularised, or urban villages. Here, delivery of basic services is under the logic of the election cycle. Communities reach out to local brokers, who then plead with agents and frontmen of provincial and national representatives to pave a broken road, or install street lights, or reline an open sewer.

Such interventions are carried out through discretionary grants and funds, which are occasionally released. Many issues get ignored because there is no interest, or no votes to be garnered, or no funds immediately available. Any work carried out, even something as small as replacing a street light bulb, is accompanied by pomp and ceremony. Signs are put up so that the poor know who to thank and who to remember when the next election comes.

This is the general pattern in which Pakistani cities are growing: neoliberal policies of urban development and the indifference of the state are creating privileged customers on one hand, and underserved clients of patronage on the other.

The writer teaches sociology at Lums.
X: @umairjav


Published in Dawn, March 18th, 2024
PAKISTAN

Kafkaesque set-up

Dr Niaz Murtaza 
DAWN
March 19, 2024




THE emerging contours of our new set-up depict a murky labyrinth hiding the conflicting pulls of the elite interests of multiple power centres, none of them aligned with the public interest. Given these deep cracks, can the byzantine set-up last and deliver?

A structure’s strength reflects that of its base. This set-up’s weak base is rigged polls. Over it, a huge ivory tower has been built by the actual powers to house willing elites to project a strength they lack. Each faction has conflicting interests that increase the set-up’s instability. The interests of the establishment — the proverbial elephant in the room — include pulling us back from doom’s edge, where its past actions got us, while retaining its political and economic sway, with other elites footing the costs of reform.

Then there is the PML-N, the ‘lion’ and main ruler, which is actually a façade for the new hybrid dispensation and its weakest cog, given its dubious mandate, infighting and 20th-century mindset. Its aims are to protect its empire and that of allied Punjab elites. But it sees the wrath of the masses and wants to drop them enough crumbs to win next time.

By foxily avoiding the cabinet, the PPP wants to hunt with the hounds and run with the hares. It will hug the set-up when it does well, but oppose it when it doesn’t. Its aims are to protect its own empire and allied Sindh and Balochistan elites and seeing Bilawal Bhutto-Zardari, the crown prince, enthroned soon. The fox alone can topple the lion at the centre but only if the establishment agrees. The smaller parties need crumbs too.

Internal conflict and poor capacity can stymie performance.

There are groups outside the Leaning Tower of Pisa pushing to join the party inside or topple it. The PTI, the main one, represents populist middle-class fantasies and assorted elite interests. The cornered tigers want to rejoin the real powers while evicting the lion, or topple the tower if rebuffed. There are religious lobbies (the Jamaat-i-Islami, the JUI and TLP) with nuisance street power. The banned TTP and Baloch militants aim to topple it outright. Many global actors and events can harm it too, for example, India, Afghanistan, Middle East wars and Sino-US tiffs.

The set-up can defeat all these threats only if it performs very well. Unfortunately, internal conflicts and poor capacities can stymie this task.

The prime minister is better at supervising local projects than leading federal policy work. He may not have control over the three key posts: finance, interior and foreign. The interior ironman is a newbie, said to have been picked by the establishment — apparently, to clamp down on the PTI, militants and progressives. Dar lacks the experience or finesse for his job and will toe Nawaz Sharif’s line, not the prime minister’s, but will be checkmated by picks like Jilani. The finance guru has no loyalty to PML-N and his selection, too, is supposed to have been influenced by non-political elements.

For many, Muhammad Aurangzeb is the new saviour we want to transform our economy. Economic progress needs macroeconomic stability, productivity/ growth, equity and sustainability. The last two will barely hit the agenda. But can he even deliver stability and growth? Ensuring stability requires solid macroeconomic credentials and public and IMF experience (like Shamshad Akhtar’s), which he lacks. He may outshine Dar, but experimenting with inexperience with a very shaky economy is risky.

We only chase macroeconomic stability once we are in the midst of a full-blown crisis via IMF’s austerity menu. But durable stability comes by creatively ex­­panding exports, industry and in­­v­estments. This re­-

quires able pers­ons in commerce, industry, investment, IT, etc, with dynamic glo­­bal experience that the incumbents badly lack. Aurangzeb has good credentials in these business areas. Can he alone transform our non-dynamic economy?

One can answer this hard query about the future via a simpler one about the past. Like Pakistan, its banks non-dynamically make money by investing in safe public debt. Did he put his bank on a new, dynamic investment path? No. Can he do that then for a much bigger, complex and politicised economy?

With productivity and growth ruled out by poor cabinet appointments, we will again chase stability via IMF’s menu. This will harm elite interests and more so the masses. Each faction will try to avoid the cost of inevitable reform as per its power and guile, possibly leading to conflict. So, this tower may implode in a few years. The PML-N can avoid all that by having able hands in a dozen key economic and social ministries to ensure productivity and equity before it’s too late.

The writer is a political economist with a PhD from the University of California, Berkeley.

murtazaniaz@yahoo.com
X: @NiazMurtaza2

Published in Dawn, March 19th, 2024
Blood carbon


DAWN
March 19, 2024 




AMID the pressing need to confront climate change, the emergence of carbon markets has gained prominence. In these markets, industries acquire the privilege of emitting carbon dioxide by committing to safeguarding forests or implementing other offsets. Although widely seen as a potent tool for conservation, apprehensions persist regarding its potential adverse effects on local communities, particularly in developing nations where mangroves face clearance for profitable endeavours such as fish and shrimp aquaculture or real estate development.

The term ‘blood carbon’ describes the dark side of these carbon trading schemes. The aggressive land acquisition strategies employed by certain entities have raised concerns about the unjust eviction of indigenous communities from their ancestral lands. The Ogiek people’s plight in Kenya serves as a stark reminder of the human cost associated with these carbon credit initiatives.

For example, in the pursuit of carbon credits, a UAE-based firm has been criticised for embarking on an extensive land acquisition initiative for mangrove plantation and conservation. This programme spans multiple African nations, including Kenya, Zimbabwe, Liberia, Zambia, and Tanzania, and has drawn the attention of environmentalists and human rights activists, raising concerns about potential displacement of indigenous people.


There is a call for a paradigm shift in carbon credit systems.

The characterisation of current events as a contemporary form of colonialism has stimulated ethical deliberations on the prioritisation of carbon sequestration initiatives over the well-being of vulnerable communities. A striking illustration of this concern unfolds with the ongoing predicament of the Ogiek people in Kenya’s Mau Forest. Kenyan President William Ruto, justifying their coerced displacement, presents it as a climate-driven measure to safeguard the forests from what he deems “illegal settlers”. This justification has triggered profound ethical debates regarding the potential adverse impact of carbon sequestration efforts on marginalised communities, with some activists drawing parallels with a modern form of colonial exploitation.

The Ogiek, acknowledged as the traditional custodians of the Mau Forest, have endured violent evictions and land seizures spanning decades. Despite legal triumphs, including a 2017 ruling by the African Court on Human and Peoples Rights affirming their land rights, the Kenyan government has drawn criticism for persistently flouting these judgements.

The situation faced by the Ogiek is not isolated; it mirrors the struggles of numerous first nation communities globally. These communities find themselves fighting not only for their lands but also against the exploitative mechanisms of carbon credit trading. The term ‘blood carbon’ aptly captures the injustice and human rights violations associated with these schemes.

In Pakistan, for the first time Sindh Forest Department has entered into a carbon credit agreement, selling 3.1 million credits valued at $40m to the Delta Blue Carbon company. The 60:40 partnership prompts questions about transparency and inclusiveness, especially considering that a significant portion of the population in the mangroves of the Indus deltaic districts lives below the poverty line. The fate of these communities remains uncertain, echoing the concerns raised by the Ogiek people in Kenya. Similarly, questions arise as to whether there was a proper tendering process, encouraging competition and giving enough leverage to local stakeholders.

Recent research underscores the critical role that mangroves play in sequestering carbon dioxide. Daniel Donato from the US Department of Ag­­­riculture’s Forest Service reveals that mangroves sto­re aro­und three to four times more carbon per hect­are than rainforests in temperate or tropical zones. However, the ra­­pid loss of these ecosystems, estimated at a third to half globally in the last 50 years, releases substantial quantities of greenhouse gases, equivalent to up to 10 per cent of the global toll from deforestation.

In light of these challenges, there is a call for a paradigm shift in carbon credit systems. Rather than trading carbon as a financial commodity on global markets, the focus should be on rewarding indigenous communities and land managers for their ecosystem services.

The story of ‘blood carbon’ highlights the need for a more equitable and just approach to climate change mitigation. Instead of evicting traditional landowners like the Ogiek, the world should recognise and compensate them for the invaluable services they provide in combating climate change. It’s time to move away from the exploitative carbon credit system and embrace a model that prioritises environmental justice and community well-being.

The writer is an expert on climate change and development and founder of the Clifton Urban Forest.

mlohar@gmail.com
X: @masoodlohar

Published in Dawn, March 19th, 2024
PAKISTAN

The Bhutto wound

Muhammad Ali Siddiqi 
DAWN
March 20, 2024 


THE Supreme Court’s March 6 judgement gives valid legal reasons why the trial that led to the verdict ordering Z.A. Bhutto’s execution in 1979 did not meet the requirements of the “fundamental right to a fair trial and due process …”

Decades earlier, Dorab Patel, one of Pakistan’s most illustrious legal minds, called Bhutto’s hanging “a judicial murder”. However, for the people of Pakistan, especially those belonging to the generation that lived through the traumatic 1970s, Bhutto’s murder was the aim of the general — and his flunkies — who seized power through a coup on a date that is part of our national memory: July 5, 1977.

Gen Ziaul Haq seized power in the wake of a countrywide movement launched by a nine-party alliance called the Pakistan National Alliance against the alleged rigging of the general election — something de rigueur in Pakistan if you lose the polls.

Zia promised to the people of Pakistan he would “inshallah” hold elections within 90 days and went on to rule until his death 11 years later.

Initially he showed some sincerity, kept in detention an equal number of leaders from both Bhutto’s PPP and the PNA, and then released them. He had assumed that the PNA’s nationwide agitation and its ability to bring the country to a halt had proved Bhutto had lost his popularity, and a fresh election would give the PNA a sweeping victory.

After his release, Bhutto made a brilliant tactical move and decided to travel to Karachi by train. Huge crowds greeted him at railway stations, making Zia and his PNA supporters realise Bhutto still had his charisma. I was there at Karachi’s Cantonment Station to judge whether the reports about the former prime minister getting huge receptions were true. I perched myself on the steps of a railway bridge and waited, wondering if this was the right perch. And lo and behold, Bhutto’s carriage stopped right in front of me. He was wearing a cream-coloured shalwar kameez, and he had a cold for there was a handkerchief in his hand.

Something told me it was the last time I was looking at him. The next day was perhaps the first of Ramazan, and just to prove that my feelings were wrong I went to his residence, 70 Clifton. There were security people outside, besides many VIPs who wanted to see him, but Bhutto was in conference with the top PPP leadership and no one was allowed in.

What happened at the crucial conference became known much later. Bhutto was clear in his mind and guessed how his enemies would react. He pleaded for an election boycott. The majority opposed him, saying the PNA would be delighted and would claim Bhutto was running away from elections. Bhutto argued that an election without the PPP would mean a sweeping PNA victory, and he would tackle the civilian government once the military was gone.

When the clamour for election continued, Bhutto said one thing repeatedly in Urdu: “Elections hongay? Elections hongay? (Will elections be held? Will elections be held?)

He had read his opponents’ minds correctly, and knew they wanted his blood, because the tycoons whose industrial empires he had nationalised had bankrolled the PNA movement.

Zia and his PNA allies were panicky and wanted the polls ditched. Much later, when Bhutto was dead and the PNA unity had broken up, the former allies went public with how PNA leaders kowtowed to Zia for calling off the elections — a drama Zia was enjoying, pretending to be indecisive about calling off the elections but keen to develop a consensus. Finally, he relented to the joy of his PNA allies, and said he would call off the polls. One leader, according to a PNA veteran, prostrated himself,when the mi­­litary dictator said he would oblige them.

I was there at Karachi’s Nishtar Park, where PPP leader Maulana Kausar Niazi made a brilliant speech full of humour and sarcasm. Then he confirmed what until then was a rumour. “This is the last public meeting and elections are going to be postponed.” An ongoing election campaign was called off!

Bhutto was arrested, and Zia had the audacity to declare what has become a shibboleth repeated ad nauseam and as a holy grail — ‘pehlay ehtesab, phir intikhab’ (accountability first, election later). Ehtesab is the criminal legacy Zia left for subsequent governments, military and civilian, to brazenly persecute the opposition.

Bhutto was buried without his family being shown his face the last time. On Aug 17, 1988, Zia’s plane, C-130, Pak-One, crashed a few miles from the Bahawalpur airfield nose first in the mud close to the Sutlej river.

Bhutto’s widow, Begum Nusrat Bhutto, said in Urdu something that can be condensed thus: “God, I have seen

Thy justice.”

The writer is Dawn’s External Ombudsman and an author.


Published in Dawn, March 20th, 2024
Russian roulette

Mahir Ali 
DAWN
March 20, 2024 



A THUMPING majority for Vladimir Putin in his fifth bid for the Russian presidency was a foregone conclusion, even though its size surprised even seasoned analysts. It’s a 10 per cent improvement on his 77.5pc score in 2018, and his initial candidacy in 2000 was rewarded with little more than 53pc of the popular vote.

The electoral exercise that began last Friday and concluded on Sunday was not billed as a wartime affair, given that the aggression against Ukraine has officially been designated as a special military operation. But a war by any other name smells just as foul, and there is little evidence that most Russians buy the Kremlin’s narrative that this sordid conflict bears any resemblance to the ‘great patriotic war’ of 1941-45, in which the Soviet Red Army ultimately routed the Nazis.

Russian accounts frequently neglect to mention that Josef Stalin panicked when Adolf Hitler betrayed the Nazi-Soviet pact, having ignored reports of an imminent German invasion from his spies. Or that Soviet military strategy went awry until Stalin left it to the generals. After the war, the domestic politics of paranoia resurfaced. In the first phase during the 1930s, Stalin had physically eliminated all conceivable rivals as well as numerous competent military leaders, which facilitated the initial Nazi cakewalk through vast tracts of Soviet territory.

Putin’s Stalinesque paranoia has been evident since his earliest days at the helm. Many perceived opponents — from recalcitrant oligarchs and disenchanted intelligence agents to journalists and politicians — died in mysterious circumstances, as did political rival Alexei Navalny in a Siberian prison colony recently.

I find it hard to share Western and Russian liberals’ enthusiasm for Navalny as an antidote to the poison Putin has injected into the lifeblood of Russia, notwithstanding his worthy anti-corruption crusade. But he certainly deserved the opportunity to face Putin on a level electoral playing field. He wouldn’t have won, but the impression of an autocrat backed by more than 87pc of Russians might have been averted.


Putin’s paranoia has been evident since the early days.

Of course, an imprisoned Navalny would not have been permitted to contest, so his elimination can perhaps only be explained by visceral hatred, or as a means of limiting the challenge to any of Putin’s successors.

The irony of Russia’s recent history is that the federation’s least undemocratic election occurred during the last months of the Soviet era, in March 1991. Boris Yeltsin won it with more than 58pc of the popular vote, despite the antipathy of the Gorbachev government. Yeltsin went on to play a key role in reversing the absurd August coup against Mikhail Gorbachev. Emboldened by Western backing, he went on dismantle the USSR in collaboration with the elected leaders of Ukraine and Belarus, ignoring the non-Slav components of the union and superseding a new union treaty that Gorbachev was on the verge of finalising.

We will never know how long a reformed Soviet Union, composed of sovereign states that finally enjoyed the autonomy from Moscow that Vladimir Lenin had argued for 70 years earlier, might have lasted. The Yeltsin regime destroyed a moribund economy desperate for renewal but replaced it with predatory capitalism. He also deployed the army against parliament, and incarcerated politicians included his vice president, Aleksandr Rutskoi (a former war prisoner in Pakistan during the Afghan conflict).

The 1996 election went to a second rou­nd, and Yeltsin beat the fairly dismal Com­­munist Party can­­­­didate, Gen­nady Zyu­­ga­nov, with the aid of authorised foreign int­­erference — prim­arily from Am­e­rica. The services of the new-fangled intelli­g­­­ence agency, the FSB, may also have been invoked. Its first director was a former KGB agent and deputy mayor of St Petersburg, who was named prime minister in 1999. Shortly afterwards, Yeltsin quit, having been offered immunity from prosecution for corruption, and named Putin as acting president. The rest is recent history.

Stalinism could not even begin to be exorcised until the dictator’s demise in March 1953, after 30 years in power, and it is widely assumed that Putin’s exit from the Kremlin will also involve a coffin. That could be a long time coming, and it would be inhumane to prolong the Ukraine war indefinitely. In that context, Pope Francis’ much-pilloried advice on pursuing peace makes far more sense than the gung-ho blather from Nato’s Jens Stoltenberg or the EU’s Ursula von der Leyen.

Besides, let’s not forget that popular support for Putin is only reinforced by Western Russophobia that cancels Chekhov and Tchaikovsky, and queries Russian cultural and sports figures about their views on the Ukraine war. What are the chances that Israeli or Jewish participants in any event might be asked whether they support the genocide in Gaza?

mahir.dawn@gmail.com

Published in Dawn, March 20th, 2024
PAKISTAN/AFGHANISTAN 

Targeting militant sanctuaries

Zahid Hussain 
DAWN
Published March 20, 2024 


THE long-simmering tension between the two countries now threatens to escalate into a full-blown conflict after Pakistan’s latest air strike on militant sanctuaries inside Afghanistan. The Afghan Taliban regime claims to have retaliated by firing with heavy weapons at Pakistani border security posts. It has now gone beyond a war of words. The latest military actions mark a new low in Pakistan’s relations with the interim Taliban regime.

The current crisis has come after yet another terrorist attack at a security post last week in North Waziristan by a militant group operating from across the border, claiming the lives of seven Pakistani soldiers. Islamabad seems to have lost its patience after this attack. The air strike came a day after Pakistani leaders vowed to take the war to the terrorist sanctuaries across the border. Pakistan has lost more than 300 security personnel to terrorist attacks in the last two years, mainly carried out by the TTP (whose leadership is based in Afghanistan) and its affiliates.

There have been conflicting reports about the casualties. While Pakistan claims to have targeted militants in the air strikes, Kabul says those killed were women and children. A Pakistan Foreign Office statement said the intelligence-based action targeted militants belonging to the Gul Bahadur group believed to have been involved in most of the terrorist attacks, which have escalated in the past two years. One of the most powerful militant commanders, Gul Bahadur has also been closely associated with Al Qaeda.

As per reports, this would not have been the first time that Pakistan conducted air strikes inside Afghanistan. But it has always maintained a degree of plausible deniability. Pakistan last year reportedly bombed targets in the Salala neighbourhood in Nangarhar province, but the Foreign Office rejected the reports. There had also been some reports of Pakistan having carried out cross-border operations to take out militant leaders based in Afghanistan. But there has never been official confirmation of those attacks.

Curiously, Pakistan has now gone public, claiming it conducted the air strikes in the Afghan provinces of Paktika and Khost, which host thousands of militants belonging to various factions of the TTP. It reflects Islamabad’s rising ire over the escalation in terrorist attacks in Pakistan, which have targeted mainly the security forces. Belligerent statements from some Afghan Taliban leaders seem to have also pushed Pakistan into issuing a public warning.


A wider conflagration’s spill-over effects will be disastrous for our internal and external security.

In a statement, Afghanistan’s defence ministry, headed by Mullah Yaqoob, warned Pakistan of serious consequences: “The country’s defence and security forces are ready to respond to any kind of aggression and will defend the country’s territorial integrity in any situation.” The statement also called the Durand Line, which divides the two countries, “artificial”. The Afghan Taliban leaders have repeatedly challenged the legitimacy of the Durand Line. The war of words highlights the worsening tensions between Islamabad and the Kabul regime.

According to Pakistani officials, 5,000 to 6,000 TTP militants have taken shelter in Afghanistan. If their family members are included, the number is in the tens of thousands. Most had fled the army operation in the former tribal regions in 2014. Many of them have also been fighting alongside the Afghan Taliban against foreign forces. The TTP has virtually become an extension of its Afghan counterpart, and it is not surprising that there has been a massive surge in militant activities in Pakistan after the end of America’s war and the return of Taliban rule in Afghanistan.

Pakistan has directly held the Afghan Taliban regime responsible for the terrorist attacks. “The Afghan interim government is not only arming the terrorists but also providing a safe haven for other terrorist organisations as well as being involved in incidents of terrorism in Pakistan,” an ISPR said in a statement after the latest terrorist attack in North Waziristan.

Pakistan has also accused some of the Afghan Taliban commanders of using the TTP as a proxy. It is certainly a grave situation. There has also been strong evidence of the Afghan Taliban being involved with the TTP in conducting cross-border terrorist attacks. Last year, hundreds of militants crossed the border and overran Pakistan’s security posts in Chitral. For the security forces in Pakistan, another primary concern is that of the militants laying their hands on the modern weaponry left behind by Nato troops and the former Afghan army.

Given their long connection and ideological proximity, the Afghan Taliban will not take action against their fellow jihadists. Instead, they insist that Islamabad make peace with the group, which has been responsible for the killing of thousands of people in Pakistan. Indeed, Pakistan has few options after the failure of diplomatic efforts to persuade the Islamic regime to expel the TTP.

Nevertheless, military options have severe repercussions for regional peace. A wider conflagration’s spill-over effects will be disastrous for the country’s internal and external security. Indeed, we must keep up pressure on the Afghan Taliban but should not close doors on diplomatic efforts. Instead of knee-jerk reactions, we must think more rationally.

There is no doubt that the Afghan Taliban’s return to power has been a major contributory factor in the revival of terrorist violence in Pakistan. However, the absence of a coherent strategy on Pakistan’s part has also allowed the TTP to claw back some lost space in the former tribal districts, as has the prevailing law and order situation. Indeed, the policy of appeasement has come back to haunt us.

According to some reports, the TTP fighters are back in many border districts and have set up security check-posts. It is almost a return to the pre-military operation situation — perhaps even worse, as the militants seem to be better organised this time and possess sophisticated weapons.

The attacks against Pakistan’s security forces are being carried out with impunity, raising questions about our strategy to deal with the situation. The growing political and economic instability has also vitalised the militant group. We have to put our own house in order. Unfortunately, we have not learnt any lesson.

The writer is an author and journalist.
zhussain100@yahoo.com
X: @hidhussain

Published in Dawn, March 20th, 2024




PAKISTAN

Austerity theatre
DAWN
Published March 20, 2024 

THE government’s recent unveiling of ‘austerity’ measures, ostensibly aimed at reducing expenses, appears to be more about show than actual substance.

While restricting cabinet members to three international trips per year and delineating travel class guidelines for various officials might seem like prudent steps, they barely scratch the surface of the belt-tightening needed to navigate Pakistan through its financial quagmire.

The decisions by the president and interior minister to forgo their salaries, though commendable on the surface, pale in comparison to the extravagance that continues to plague government spending. The gesture does little to address the underlying issues of fiscal irresponsibility that have led to our current economic predicament.

Allowing MNAs and senior bureaucrats the luxury of business class travel — which in practical terms for a return ticket to many European destinations means spending approximately a million rupees — is a slap in the face of the concept of fiscal restraint. The image of lawmakers and bureaucrats jet-setting on public coin sends a conflicting message to the populace they serve, especially when 40pc of the people fall below the poverty line.

The disparity in salary ratios between various employees in the UK and Pakistan serves as a shameful mirror for reflection. In the UK, the salary ratio between a janitor and the senior-most bureaucrat is 1:8, whereas in Pakistan, it is an astounding 1:80. The officials who think they are tightening their belts by not flying first class (the president and chief justice can, however) are sorely mistaken.


The austerity narrative pushed by the government — indeed like all other governments before it — collapses under the weight of these contradictions. The privileging of a select few to cushy travel perks, while a significant chunk of the nation struggles to eat three square meals a day, is not austerity; it is austerity theatre.

The critique here is not merely about the scale of the measures but their sincerity. Real austerity involves hard choices and genuine sacrifice, not selective tokenism. The continued allowance of benefits and the half-measures proposed signal a troubling lack of commitment to governance and fiscal responsibility.

If the government means business, lawmakers would do well to pass a resolution in parliament refusing such privileges until the economy stabilises. The PM, services chiefs, and at best, the foreign minister may utilise such travel perks but it is unreasonable to extend these to the rest of the government machinery.

Symbolic gestures won’t do anymore. There is a need for a fundamental reassessment of priorities and spending, with a laser focus on eliminating waste and directing resources towards sustainable economic recovery. Only then can the nation hope to emerge from its economic plight and embark on a future marked by stability and prosperity.

Published in Dawn, March 20th, 2024
Rift over Rafah

Rafia Zakaria Published March 20, 2024
 




THE Israeli genocide in Gaza has stretched into Ramazan. The unspeakable horrors that have been visited upon the Palestinians have now led to the boundaries being blurred between fasting and famine; with many seeing no end to the hunger that ends at dusk for all other fasting Muslims. The equivalent of three nuclear bombs have been dropped on Gazans since last October. Over 31,000 Palestinians have been killed and more than 70,000 injured — many left with no arms or no legs.

The US, as Zionist-fed American politicians have long been proud to proclaim, continues to stand by Israel. The promise was repeated like a nauseating chant in the first, second, third, fourth and fifth month of the war, even when hospitals were bombed, even when the International Court of Justice declared that Israel had to prevent a genocide, even when reel after reel from every corner of Gaza showed small children being maimed, shell-shocked, shivering, and left orphaned and without food.

Then the electoral primaries for the American presidential elections began. If there is anything that the administration loves more than Israel and the dollars they reap from the Israeli lobbyists of the American Israel Public Affairs Committee, it is to be in power. In this case, Joe Biden, the incumbent, does not have to battle a challenger in the primary elections. Technically, therefore the primaries should have meant little more to him than a perfunctory rite of passage. So it would have been, were it not for the war in Gaza and the unpredictable shift of a younger generation of American voters away from Israel.

This year the shift was seen in voting patterns. Rashida Tlaib the only Palestinian-American Congresswoman in the US House of Repre­sen­tatives, who represents Michigan state’s 12th congressional district, including the city of Dearborn where the majority of residents are Arab American, signed onto the ‘uncommitted’ campaign.

The campaign, led by the advocates of a ceasefire in Gaza, asked Democratic voters to deliberately vote ‘uncommitted’ in the Demo­cratic primary to register their protest against American policies on Israel. When Michigan went to vote, 13 per cent of the state’s Democratic primary voters voted ’uncommitted’. Even then, when Biden, who won the Democratic primary in Michigan, issued an official statement that evening, he did not mention either the uncommitted vote or the Palestinians.

If the Democrats running Biden’s campaign paid little attention to the growing groundswell of anger towards the administration’s support for Israel’s genocide, the state primaries that followed have now forced them to focus. Even in a state like North Carolina, where there is no bastion of Muslim-Americans like in Michigan, 12pc voted uncommitted/ no preference in the Democratic primary as did 9pc in Massachusetts.


If the Biden administration paid little attention to the growing anger towards its support for Israel’s genocide, the state primaries have now forced it to focus.

When it was the turn of Minnesota, where the constituency of Somali-American Congress­woman Ilhan Omar lies, 19pc voted ‘uncommitted’. The numbers have shown that the ‘uncommitted’ campaign had support beyond Muslim voters and among the young voters and progressives that the Biden administration desperately needs on its side if it is to beat Donald Trump in the general election in November. Add to this the African American voters who, polls show, see Gaza and Israeli discrimination as a civil rights issue and it would spell the end of the Democrats and of Biden.

Suddenly, it appears that Biden’s tune towards Israel has changed. As these results and probably the Biden campaign’s own polling results have shown, Muslims and Arab Americans along with younger voters were strongly opposed to the carte blanche that the Biden administration seemed to have handed Netanyahu and his camp of genocidal maniacs. These were warning shots — the lethal ones could come in November when all of the uncommitted stayed home and let the Trump camp sail to victory. Trump, for his part has expressed his support for Israel, but given the isolationist tendencies of his supporters it remains to be seen if he would be entirely okay with slashing billions from the Israeli coffers without much ado.

Instantly, the US began to press Israel into a ceasefire prior to the beginning of Ramazan. When this did not happen, their displeasure was clear. When Israel said that it would pursue a ground invasion of Rafah, the border town where hundreds of thousands of desperate Palestinians are crammed together in terrible conditions, the US warned Israel that it was making a mistake.

The Netanyahu administration said it would pursue the campaign regardless, but this has led to an escalation of public annoyance from the American side. When Biden made his State of the Union address, he focused on the fact that aid had to get to Gaza (even though the solution he offered of an impractical fantastic “pier” for Gaza to “receive large ships carrying food, water, medicine and temporary shelters” is unworkable).

Then to show that the elected branches of the Democrats were together on this, Senate majority leader Democrat Chuck Schumer, the highest-ranking Jewish member of the US government, demanded new elections in Israel in his speech from the Senate floor. “The Netanyahu coalition no longer fits the needs of Israel after Oct 7,” he said. While the US forces this on many countries, it was the first time their darling Israel received such instructions — and at a time while it is at war and has a national unity government.

So far, the Biden administration’s ‘anger’ has been all talk. No policy has been changed and no arms shipments have been stalled or slashed. This, however, is exactly the complaint that the ‘uncommitted’ voters have against the Biden government. It may take more than talk to convince them to come out to vote in November, and Biden desperately needs them to do so.

In the meantime, the rhetoric against Israeli actions is as loud as it has ever been in the US and for now that may mean that those suffering in Rafah will not have bombs falling on them for some time.

The writer is an attorney teaching constitutional law and political philosophy.
rafia.zakaria@gmail.com


Published in Dawn, March 20th, 2024