Wednesday, March 27, 2024

Alamos Gold to buy smaller peer Argonaut for $325 mln

By Reuters
March 27, 2024

March 27 (Reuters) - Canadian gold miner Alamos Gold (AGI.TO), opens new tab will acquire smaller rival Argonaut Gold (AR.TO), opens new tab for $325 million in an all-stock deal, the companies said on Wednesday.

The deal would increase Alamos' gold production to 600,000 ounces per year, with a longer-term production potential of over 900,000 ounces per year, the companies said. Alamos produced 529,300 ounces of gold in 2023.

The deal would give Alamos access to Argonaut's Magino mine, located adjacent to Alamos' Island Gold mine in Ontario, Canada.

The companies expect long-term synergies of about $515 million from the acquisition.

The companies will also spin off Argonaut's mines in the U.S. and Mexico to their existing shareholders as a newly created junior gold producer, SpinCo.

A junior gold miner is typically an exploration company with a smaller production capacity that searches for new deposits of gold.

Under the terms of the deal, each Argonaut common share would be exchanged for 0.0185 Alamos common shares and 1 share of SpinCo.

The exchange ratio implies a total consideration of 40 Canadian cents per Argonaut share, the companies said.

Gold prices hit a record high last week after Fed policymakers indicated they still expect to reduce interest rates by three-quarters of a percentage point by the end of the year.

U.S.-listed shares of Alamos edged lower before the bell.

Reporting by Sourasis Bose in Bengaluru; Editing by Tasim Zahid
Chile Unveils Lithium Salt Flats It Plans to Lease to Private Companies

James Attwood
Wed, March 27, 2024 


(Bloomberg) -- Chile unveiled salt flats that will be opened up to lithium mining as part of a plan to double production of the battery metal over the next decade under a new public-private model.

Two flats — the giant Salar de Atacama where Chile produces all of its lithium currently, as well as Maricunga — were deemed to be of strategic importance, meaning future contracts will be controlled by the state, ministers said Tuesday. At two other areas, state-owned firms will have the flexibility to negotiate terms with private-sector partners. In a separate process, contracts for as many as 26 other areas will be put out to tender.

The announcement of the three different categories sheds a little more light on President Gabriel Boric’s plans to tap the world’s largest reserves of the key ingredient in electric-vehicle batteries. The goal of doubling output in a country that’s already the world’s No. 2 producer would be cheered by the EV supply chain as demand grows in the move away from fossil fuels.

When the leftist leader first unveiled his lithium strategy a year ago, the emphasis was on state firms taking control of partnerships with the private sector in the most prospective areas. Now, the door is open for companies to control projects and even go it alone in areas of lesser importance.

Still, plenty of questions remain, including the funding responsibilities of state companies; the criteria used to select the 26 areas that will be offered to the private sector and others that will be protected from mining; as well as any requirements to adopt more sustainable extraction techniques.

“The devil is in the details here,” said Chris Berry, president of House Mountain Partner, an industry consultant. “There are so many unanswered questions in my mind with respect to Chile’s new lithium strategy.”

Companies will have 60 days beginning in April to request more information on the salt flats open to new contracts. The government expects to see three or four new projects under development by 2026. After a supply glut saw lithium prices plunge last year, authorities are betting that prospective bidders will take a long-term view on the shift away from fossil fuels.

Currently, only US-based Albemarle Corp. and local firm SQM produce lithium in Chile, which has been losing market share due to strict output quotas.

While Albemarle’s contract runs through 2043, SQM’s expires in 2030. As a result, the Santiago-based firm has agreed in principle to hand over a majority stake in its brine assets to state-owned Codelco in exchange for extending operations for three decades.

As a major producer of lithium and copper, Chile is at the forefront of the global transition to clean energy. But the government’s engaged in a delicate dance, seeking a bigger role for the state while attempting to attract more private capital, defend the environment and move further down the value chain — all at a time of increased tensions between its top trading partners, China and the US.

 Bloomberg Businessweek


Chile’s mining minister urges SQM, Tianqi to resolve spat

Reuters | March 27, 2024 |

Brine pools and processing areas of SQM’s lithium mine on the Atacama salt flat, the world’s second largest. (Image courtesy of Nutrien.)

Chile’s mining minister on Wednesday urged Chilean miner SQM and China’s Tianqi Lithium Corp, a major shareholder in the company, to resolve their ongoing spat, but refrained from weighing into their private matter.


Tianqi, which holds about 20% of SQM shares, last week raised concerns over transparency in the firm’s talks on a partnership with state copper producer Codelco. The Chinese company’s view was later challenged by SQM’s board chairman.

“We naturally urge the internal differences that SQM may have with its partners to be resolved,” Mining Minister Aurora Williams told reporters, adding however that she had “no opinion” on how the firm deals with its board and shareholders.

“It is not our place to give an opinion on that.”

(By Alexander Villegas; Editing by Jason Neely)

Canada introduces tougher security reviews of foreign investments

Reuters | March 27, 2024

Parliament Hill, in Ottawa, Ontario. Credit: Wikimedia Commons

Canada has introduced tougher national security reviews of proposed foreign investments in sensitive sectors to enable it to quickly spot potentially problematic deals, the government said on Wednesday.


The new powers are part of a revision to the Investment Canada Act (ICA) that became law last week.

“We will not hesitate to take action on transactions that could harm Canada’s national and economic security,” Innovation Minister Francois-Philippe Champagne said in a statement.

The new regulations mean a foreign firm wishing to buy a company in a sensitive sector must inform Ottawa about its plans before the transaction closes.

This will “provide the government earlier visibility on investments where there is risk that the foreign investor could gain access to sensitive assets, information, intellectual property or trade secrets”.

The law allows the innovation minister to order that a security review be extended, a move that previously had to be formally announced by the government. Penalties for non-compliance will also be increased.

Sectors the government is particularly focused on include quantum science, robots and artificial intelligence.

Canada, wary of Chinese state-owned enterprises snapping up companies in sensitive areas, has already been cracking down.

In 2023, Ottawa tightened foreign investment rules for the critical minerals sector, a year after forcing Chinese investors to sell their stakes in three Toronto-listed lithium firms.

(Reporting by David Ljunggren; Editing by Timothy Heritage)

Population gains in Canada set record, but slower growth ahead

Canada’s population growth rate hit a fresh record, capping a year when one of the world’s largest immigration programs reached its top speed as pressures mounted on Prime Minister Justin Trudeau’s government to slow down future inflows.

The population grew by 1.3 million people over the past year to 40.8 million, according to Statistics Canada’s estimate released Wednesday in Ottawa. That’s the fastest annual pace in Canada since 1957. 

At a 3.2 per cent annual rate, Canada has among the world’s fastest population growth, only behind a few African countries with high fertility. The country added roughly the equivalent of Estonia’s populace last year. 

Only 2.4 per cent of the increase came from net births, and the rest was driven by international migration, primarily foreign workers and students. Without temporary immigration, Canada’s population growth would have been 1.2 per cent.


But with plans to cut the numbers of temporary residents and international students already in place, 2023 will likely mark the peak of the immigration-driven population boom in Canada. Economists have projected that the new restrictions would slash the rate of annual population growth by half or more. 

Impressive population gains helped buoy Canada’s economy amid elevated interest rates, but the surge strained infrastructure and services, worsened housing shortages and sent rents soaring. Anxiety about the deteriorating standard of living forced the government to scale down its immigration ambition, a lesson for advanced economies relying on newcomers to stave off economic decline. 

Separately, the agency’s real-time population clock now shows Canada’s population approaching 41 million, just nine months after it surpassed 40 million in June. It’s now some 14,000 people away from reaching a new milestone.

 

Cargo companies start to reroute away from Montreal amid fears of port strike

The Port of Montreal.

A major transport company has rerouted cargo away from the Port of Montreal over fears of a potential strike, prompting concerns that others may follow in its wake.

Delmar International, a Quebec-based logistics firm that counts 1,500 employees across 17 countries, said all Montreal-bound freight will now flow through the Port of Halifax in a pre-emptive move to curtail fallout from possible job action.

"While uncertainties persist at the Port of Montreal, Delmar International will reroute all East Coast Montreal-bound cargo via Halifax to limit any negative impact of a potential work stoppage until further notice," the company told customers in a post last week.

Earlier this month, the Canada Industrial Relations Board dismissed a request from Montreal port employers to require employees to work during a strike, opening the gate to a job action or lockout after a six-month freeze while the ask was under consideration. That freeze ended with the board's decision on March 14.

On Friday, the Maritime Employers Association followed up with a complaint to the labour board that called on it to rekindle talks due to a "bad faith" stance by the union, which it claims has refused to resume bargaining.

"The parties are at an impasse caused by the union's refusal to negotiate," the submission said in French.

"The association is contacting the CIRB to urgently obtain a hearing and remedies to force the union to comply with its obligations and thus allow the resumption of negotiations."

The last meeting between the two sides took place on Jan. 16, according to the filing.

Association spokeswoman Isabelle Pelletier said employers are "very worried" about the consequences of mounting fears that a strike is looming.

"We have strong signals that cargo will be rerouted because of the uncertainty at the Port of Montreal," she said in an email.

The employers, who in their complaint blamed the workers for "scaring away" cargo, noted that they continue to pay employees including those not on the job amid a fall in freight volumes — an "untenable situation" as revenue drops in lockstep with the decrease, the association said.

Container shipments fell nearly nine per cent last year, according to tonnage data from the port.

The dockworkers' union, which represents roughly 1,200 Montreal port workers affiliated with the Canadian Union of Public Employees, declined to comment. Wednesday marked the deadline to respond to the employers' labour board complaint.

The collective agreement expired on Dec. 31.

Canada’s maritime supply chain has faced several labour disruptions over the past four years, on top of the backlogs and bottlenecks of the COVID-19 pandemic.

Last summer, a strike by 7,400 B.C. dockworkers dragged on for 13 days, shutting down the country's biggest port and costing the economy billions of dollars.

In October, an eight-day strike by employees on the locks of the St. Lawrence Seaway halted shipments of grain, iron ore and gasoline along the trade corridor.

And in Montreal, longshore workers last went on strike in August 2020 in a 12-day job action that left 11,500 containers languishing on the waterfront.

Mutual suspicion persists to this day after that standoff, observers say.

Federal Transport Minister Pablo Rodriguez on Monday pointed to an apparent "climate of mistrust" between the dockworkers and the Maritime Employers Association, which represents shippers and terminal operators.

Others echoed his concerns.

"It's getting to be an acute situation," said Julia Kuzeljevich, spokeswoman for the Canadian International Freight Forwarders Association.

"There are great fears that they'll do a 72-hour strike notice at any point," she said. "Many people are choosing to divert cargo ... It's just a big question mark hanging over the situation."

Before hitting the picket lines, the union would have to hold a strike mandate vote, which it can do at any time. If the vote is successful, job action could kick off three days after executives give the word. 

Large retailers would be among the hardest hit by a disruption, said Bob Ballantyne, a senior adviser at the Freight Management Association of Canada, whose nearly 60 members include Canadian Tire Corp., Hudson's Bay Co. and Home Depot Canada.

"In advance, they'll start making other arrangements. I suspect a number of our big retailers and other importers will have already started to do that," Ballantyne said.

"They'll be looking at rerouting primarily to the ports of Halifax and St. John, N.B."

Meanwhile, labour tensions are also simmering just down the line in the transport sector.

Canada's two main railways this month resumed talks with the union representing about 9,200 conductors, engineers and yard workers, a back-and-forth overseen by federal mediators since March 1.

A mandated 60-day period of mediated negotiations followed by a 21-day cooling-off period means a work stoppage at either Canadian National Railway Co. or Canadian Pacific Kansas City Ltd. could begin as soon as May 21.

In November 2019, a rail strike gripped the country for eight days until CN and 3,000 railroaders reached a tentative deal, ending a job action that halted shipments, triggered layoffs and disrupted industries across the country.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published March 27, 2024.

 

Canadian  IT workers welcome AI adoption, but hurdles remain: survey


A survey of Canadian “IT decision makers” shows most companies welcome the use of artificial intelligence in their work, but are concerned for its current uses.

The survey from CDW in collaboration with Angus Reid, released Tuesday, shows 61 per cent of respondents are open to using AI and 58 per cent believe it helps productivity, but 49 per cent are uncomfortable with its current uses.

Michael Traves, the devops and AI cloud principal architect at CDW Canada, said in a news release that much of the discomfort surrounding AI comes from a misunderstanding of the technology.

“Organizations recognize the transformative potential of AI and its ability to not only enhance operational efficiency but to drive innovation and growth,” he said in the release. “The current discomfort with AI adoption stems from a lack of understanding around important pieces of the AI puzzle, including security, education and compliance.”

The optimism surrounding AI echoes a similar report from the financial services company Square, which found 100 per cent of responding Canadian restaurants believe AI can help with staffing and food prep, among other use cases.

The report also speculated AI could one day help with pairing food and drink choices to individual tastes for an elevated experience.

Understanding of AI has also hurt the implementation of the software, however. More than half of respondents have already implemented some form of AI into their workplace, but on 21 per cent of respondents believe their company is doing it effectively.

CDW explains the disconnect “highlights a significant gap in education and governance between those responsible for overseeing AI integration, the organizations they work for and assumptions about the complexity of AI tools.”

Small businesses lag behind

The survey also found a lack of AI knowledge among small businesses, as just 28 per cent of small businesses were aware of AI data processing tools, compared to 60 per cent of larger businesses.

Small businesses are also less likely to benefit from AI adoption, the survey found. Just 18 per cent of small businesses found AI provided customer service benefits and only 20 per cent reported it helped with decision-making.

Overall, CDW recommends tailoring AI solutions to individual employees’ needs, for businesses to train employees on AI and evaluate the AI options to find the best organizational fit. 

METHODOLOGY

These are the findings of an online survey conducted by CDW from February 1 to February 8, 2024, among a sample of 309 IT decision-makers who are members of the Angus Reid Forum. The survey was conducted in English. For comparison purposes only, a probability sample of this size would carry a margin of error of +/-6 percentage points, 19 times out of 20.


Canadian Business leaders say housing biggest risk to economy: KPMG survey

Business leaders see the housing crisis as the biggest risk to the economy, a new survey from KPMG Canada shows.

It found 94 per cent of respondents agreed that high housing costs and a lack of supply are the top risk, and that housing should be a main focus in the upcoming federal budget. The survey questioned 534 businesses.

Housing issues are forcing businesses to boost pay to better attract talent and budget for higher labour costs, agreed 87 per cent of respondents. 

“What we're seeing in the survey is that the businesses are needing to pay more to enable their workers to absorb these higher costs of living,” said Caroline Charest, an economist and Montreal-based partner at KPMG.

The need to pay more not only directly affects business finances, but is also making it harder to tamp down the inflation that is keeping interest rates high, said Charest.


High housing costs and interest rates are straining households that are already struggling under high debt, she said.

“It leaves household balance sheets more vulnerable, in particular, in a period of economic slowdown. So it creates areas of vulnerability in the economy.”

Higher housing costs are themselves a big contributor to inflation, also making it harder to get the measure down to allow for lower rates ahead, she said. 

Businesses have been raising the alarm for some time. 

A report out last year from the Ontario Chamber of Commerce also emphasized how much the housing crisis is affecting how well businesses can attract talent. 

Almost 90 per cent of businesses want to see more public-private collaboration to help solve the crisis, the KPMG survey found.

“How can we work bringing all stakeholders, that being governments, not-for-profit organizations and the community and the private sector together, to find solutions to develop new models to deliver housing,” said Charest.

“That came out pretty strong from our survey of businesses.”

The federal government has been working to roll out more funding supports for other levels of government, and introduced measures like a GST rebate for rental housing construction, but it only has limited direct control on the file. 

Part of the federal funding has been to link funding to measures provinces and municipalities adopt that could help boost supply. 

The vast majority of respondents to the KPMG survey supported tax measures to make housing payments more affordable, such as making mortgage interest tax deductible, but also want to maintain the capital gains tax exemption for a primary residence.


The survey of companies was conducted in February using Sago's Methodify online research platform. Respondents were business owners or executive-level decision makers.

About a third of the leaders are at companies with revenue over $500 million, about half have revenue between $100 million and $500 million, with the rest below. 

This report by The Canadian Press was first published March 27, 2024.



Housing starts stable in 2023, but demand still outpaces growing supply of apartments

The Canada Mortgage and Housing Corp. says construction of new homes in Canada's six largest cities remained stable at near all-time high levels last year, driven by a surge of new apartments — despite demand still outpacing supply for rental housing.

The agency released its biannual housing supply report on Wednesday, which showed combined housing starts in the Toronto, Vancouver, Montreal, Calgary, Edmonton and Ottawa regions dipped 0.5 per cent compared with 2022, totalling 137,915 units.

That was in line with the annual average of around 140,000 new units over the past three years. CMHC deputy chief economist Aled ab Iorwerth said the 2023 numbers came in "better than we thought."

"We ended up being positively surprised by 2023. We were really quite concerned that higher interest rates were going to really have an impact," said ab Iorwerth.

"They did have an impact, but it seems to have been on smaller structures, single-detached (homes) and so forth."

Apartment starts grew seven per cent to reach a record 98,774 individual units last year. However, those gains were offset by declines in the number of new single-detached homes, which fell 20 per cent year-over-year, due to weaker demand for higher-priced homes in an elevated mortgage rate environment.

The agency continued to warn about the need to ramp up housing construction to address affordability gaps and significant population growth in Canada.

It said housing starts are projected to decrease in 2024, despite the CMHC's forecast that Canada will require an additional 3.5 million units by 2030, on top of what is currently projected to be built, to restore affordability to levels seen around 2004.

Its report cited rising costs, larger project sizes and labour shortages last year that led to longer construction timelines, prompting various levels of government in Canada to announce new programs aimed at stimulating new rental housing supply.

"We're still not building enough, particularly on the rental side," said ab Iorwerth.

"The demand is enormous. I don't think we're keeping up with demand. So we need a lot more investment."

While high interest rates have cooled demand for home purchases, as many buyers stayed on the sidelines last year, the impact was not only reflected by the decline of single-detached starts. Ab Iorwerth said higher rates also make it less attractive to build new rental structures.

"One of the issues with building a rental structure is the cost of the building has to be borrowed. Obviously, the rental income is in the future, but the cost of construction is today," he said.

"The cost of construction has to be borrowed from various financial institutions and so as interest rates have gone up, it's been harder, more costly to get access to that financing to build rentals."

Of the six cities examined, Vancouver, Calgary and Toronto saw growth in their total starts, driven by new apartment construction reaching record highs. 

Vancouver had a record 33,244 new housing starts in 2023, a 27.9 per cent gain from the previous year, followed by Calgary's 19,579 new homes built, a 13.1 per cent increase.

There were 47,428 housing starts in Toronto, marking a 5.1 per cent rise, but ab Iorwerth noted those levels were "concerning" as the proportion of apartment starts designated as rentals was just 26 per cent — the lowest of any region.

Montreal, Ottawa and Edmonton recorded declines in total housing starts from the previous year. The report said Montreal, at 36.9 per cent fewer homes built, was the only market with a significant decrease across all housing types.

With 15,235 housing starts last year, the Montreal figures partially reflected labour shortages and supply chain problems, said ab Iorwerth, who added the city is more vulnerable to high interest rates than other cities studied.

"The buildings tend to be a little bit smaller in Montreal and so the housing starts react more quickly to higher interest rates, meaning it's a quicker turnaround on smaller structures," he said.

"It's possible that Montreal has reacted faster to the hike in interest rates."

Ottawa saw 9,245 new homes built last year, which marked a 19.5 per cent decrease from 2022, while there were 13,184 housing starts in Edmonton, a 9.6 per cent decline.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published March 27, 2024.



CANADA

Young people paying 'astronomically living expenses': insolvency trustee

Following reports that younger Canadians are willing to make sacrifices to own a home, insolvency trustees say many should consider renting instead. 

Rob Kilner, an insolvency trustee with Spergel, said in a news release on Wednesday that many younger Canadians should choose to rent. He said he sees a lot of “entitlement” among younger people as salaries have not kept pace with inflation and rising home prices amid higher interest rates. 

“Someone will say ‘I deserve a house by myself.’ Well, sometimes you can’t afford a home by yourself. You might need a roommate,” he said. 

“You now have a younger generation who are paying astronomically high living expenses. They are taking the beating the most. It’s almost like the older generation took up the ladder with them, and said ‘good luck climbing the wall.’” 

In January, digital real estate platform Wahi released findings from its Homebuyer Intention Survey with results from 1,508 Angus Reid Forum members, finding that 24 per cent of Canadians between 18 and 34 indicated they are likely to buy a home this year. The survey found those individuals said they were willing to make sacrifices like reducing spending, working longer hours or taking a second job to purchase a home. 

Samantha Galea, also an insolvency trustee at Spergel, said in a statement that she recommends people change their attitudes toward home ownership. 

“People need to shift the idea that to be successful you have to own a home. It’s just not going to be in the cards for some people, and they’re in a worse position for trying to own a house,” she said. 

Last week, a survey from Houseful, an RBC company, found that younger first-time home buyers were making compromises to get into the real estate market. Some of the trade-offs included looking for smaller and smaller homes, purchasing homes they may not stay in over the longer term and expanding their preferences on location. 

The survey found that 65.2 per cent of younger first-time buyers would embrace a smaller space compared to 47.2 per cent of older buyers. Fewer younger buyers, 53.3 per cent, indicated they purchased their dream home, while 72.6 of older buyers indicated they did. 

Additionally, younger buyers were also less likely to value location, with 28.3 per cent of younger buyers prioritizing this compared to 34.9 per cent of older buyers. 

Generational wealth 

As the cost of owning a home continues to rise in Canada, one economist says many may not be able to attain a primary driver of accumulating wealth. 

Earlier in March, Carrie Freestone, an economist at RBC, said in a report that renters are facing barriers to building wealth as they are forced to allocate more of their income to shelter. 

“I will say that if we look at wealth accumulation, homeownership has been the primary driver of wealth accumulation in Canada,” she said in an interview with BNN Bloomberg. 

“It's accounted for half of the assets accumulated over the past three decades. So it is concerning that renters are not having access to the housing market.”

Here's what Trudeau says the upcoming federal budget will offer renters


Trudeau announces protection for renters


Luca Caruso-Moro
CTVNews.ca 
Breaking Digital Assignment Editor
Updated March 27, 2024 

The federal government will create a new "Canadian Renters’ Bill of Rights," which would require landlords (opens in a new tab) to disclose their properties’ rental price history to prospective tenants.

Prime Minister Justin Trudeau made the announcement Wednesday in Vancouver, saying it's one of three new measures that will be part of the upcoming federal budget, which will also include a new housing aid fund and a push to have rental payments affect credit scores.

Rental demand outpaced supply in most major markets across the county last year, according to the Canada Mortgage and Housing Corp.'s (CMHC) review published in January. The average purpose-built two-bedroom apartment went for $1,359 per month, while condo rental costs sat at $2,049.

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Canada's overall vacancy rate fell to a new low at 1.5 per cent last year. Regionally, rates declined in most of Canada's larger cities, while rental costs surged.

Tenants' rights advocates have long championed the concept of a rental registry, which could allow renters to see what the previous tenant paid for a unit before accepting a new rate.

The incoming "Bill of Rights" aims to empower renters to "bargain fairly," a Wednesday press release said.

Alongside it, Trudeau promised a $15-million fund for provincial legal aid services to "protect tenants against unfairly rising rent payments, renovictions, or bad landlords."

"In today's Canada, more people are renting than ever before … Nearly two thirds of young Canadians rent their homes," he said, adding that younger people spend larger portions of their incomes on rent than other generations have.

"Maybe young people want to start a family, but they don't know how they can afford something bigger than a one-bedroom apartment."

The new rules will require significant buy-in from the provinces, which could be a "battle," Cedric Dussault, a tenants' advocate with Quebec-based organization RCLALQ, says.

"To be frank, we're not sure this is really up to the federal government to enact," he told CTVNews.ca in a phone interview shortly after Trudeau's announcement, which he called "surprising."

Dussault also threw cold water on the aid fund for provincial organizations.

"It's better than nothing," he said. "It seems like a lot of money, but when we look at the whole country, at all the needs of all the tenants across the country, it will be used up quickly."

Housing disputes can take years to make their way through the courts, Dussault explained, while staff salaries and legal consultation fees could also add up.

"We are facing an explosion of demands from tenants," he said.
Building credit scores

The government will also amend the Canadian Mortgage Charter and "call on" banks and credit companies to incorporate rental payments into Canadians' credit history, the press release said.

"This will make it easier for you to qualify for a mortgage, or even qualify you for a lower rate," Trudeau said, lamenting that a property owner can build their credit score while paying down their mortgage, but someone paying monthly rent cannot.

"You're spending $2,000 a month on rent. That gives you no kudos. It gives you no credit," he said.

Deputy Prime Minister and Finance Minister Chrystia Freeland announced earlier this month that the 2024 federal budget will be presented on Tuesday, April 16.

Noting that Canadians continue to feel the squeeze of inflation, while increasingly becoming preoccupied with looming mortgage renewals, Freeland signalled then that the budget would focus on housing, affordability and jobs, while balancing the need to remain "fiscally prudent" by limiting major new spending plans.

With files from CTV News' Rachel Aiello

 

Emissions cap could hurt Trans Mountain pipeline's sale price: Calgary Chamber

The Calgary Chamber of Commerce is warning Ottawa that its proposed cap on emissions from the oil and gas sector could compromise the valuation and sale of the Trans Mountain pipeline.

The business group made the argument Wednesday in an open letter urging the federal government to reconsider proceeding with the promised cap, which the government has said it intends to finalize in mid-2024.

"If there is a risk that (Trans Mountain) might not be able to rely on a steady and predictable flow of oil from the oil sands production, it will result in a lower valuation by investors and a lower price received when the asset is sold," states the letter, which was signed by Calgary Chamber of Commerce president Deborah Yedlin as well as a number of other Alberta-based business groups and oil-and-gas sector leaders.

The federal government published its regulatory framework for a proposed cap on emissions from the oil and gas sector in December last year and the industry has been fighting tooth-and-nail against it.

The government has said that under its proposed plan, the oil and gas industry will have to cut emissions by more than one-third by 2030 or buy offset credits.

It has said the cap is meant to cap pollution, not production, but the industry has warned the cap will have "unintended consequences" — scaring away investment and potentially causing companies to curtail their output.

"Rather than support investment, the emissions cap would create uncertainty, unfavourable economic conditions and a punitive regulatory environment, all of which would strand investment and innovation in decarbonization projects," the Calgary Chamber said Wednesday.

The Chamber added the uncertainty around the proposed emissions cap is coming at the same time the federal government has embarked on the first phase of what is expected to be a two-part divestment process for the Trans Mountain pipeline.

The pipeline, which is owned by the federal government, is Canada's only oil export pipeline to the West coast. Its expansion, which is more than 98 per cent complete, has been underway for more than four years and has so far cost at least $34 billion.

The sale of the Trans Mountain pipeline will be one of the largest commercial transactions in Canadian history. The government is already in talks with Indigenous groups along the pipeline's route who may be interested in purchasing a stake in the asset, and is expected to later consider commercial offers for the remaining stake.

But the pipeline expansion's ballooning construction costs already pose a problem for the government, which bought Trans Mountain for $4.5 billion. Observers have pointed out the government will likely need to sell it at a loss, as prospective buyers will only offer a price that can be supported by the pipeline tolls — the fees oil shippers pay to move oil on the pipeline.

As for its proposed emissions cap, the federal government has said the limit it ultimately legislates will take into account what is technically achievable, as well as the forecasted global demand for oil and gas. 

Data from the Canadian Energy Regulator shows Alberta's greenhouse gas emissions increased 19 per cent between 2005 and 2020, the only Canadian jurisdiction where emissions have grown during that time. 

More than half of Alberta's emissions come from oil and gas production.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published March 27, 2024.


Canadian oil flows to Los Angeles as Trans Mountain start nears

Canadian crude shipments to Los Angeles are surging, a possible preview of how an expanded pipeline that’s nearing startup may redraw flows along the Pacific Coast.

Three tankers carrying a total of 1.74 million barrels have sailed from Vancouver to the biggest U.S. West Coast city in March, the most in at least four years, according Vortexa tanker data. At least two of the shipments of heavy Cold Lake crude from the oil sands went to Marathon Petroleum Corp., which operates a refinery in the city. The U.S. refiner declined to comment in an email. 


Marathon’s ramp-up of Canadian crude imports could be a sign of things to come once the Trans Mountain pipeline’s expansion — which will nearly triple the capacity of the line running from Alberta to the Pacific Coast to 890,000 barrels a day — starts operating in the second quarter. The U.S. refiner is a contract shipper on the new pipeline.

While the first two cargoes off the expanded system — also known as TMX — are expected to go to China, some analysts argue that U.S. West Coast refineries may become the preferred market due to the proximity and the relatively small Aframax tankers that are able to access Vancouver. 

Canadian crude may displace oil from Iraq, Saudi Arabia or Latin America, Erik Broekhuizen, tanker researcher for Poten & Partners, said in a note last Friday.

“The short shipping distance from Vancouver gives the TMX crude competitive transportation costs,” he said.