Proud Seafarers Have Strong Doubts About the Safety of Autonomy

A survey of Norwegian bridge officers found considerable skepticism about the safety benefits of autonomy

USCG file image

PUBLISHED APR 11, 2024 10:08 PM BY GEMINI NEWS

 

 

[By Sølvi Normannsen]

Despite their great trust in on-board autopilots, bridge officers do not believe that autonomous ships will make shipping safer. Moreover, the greater the professional commitment and pride of the bridge officers, the less confidence they have in automation increasing safety at sea. 

The maritime profession is among the world’s oldest professions, and today’s shipping is based on long and proud traditions. Professional pride and commitment are often deeply ingrained in seafarers, and for many, the job is more of a way of life. New technologies will bring about major changes in the work of bridge officers, who have the ultimate responsibility on board Norwegian vessels.

Strong doubts about safety

“Bridge officers rely on automated systems that are already found on board, such as advanced autopilot systems. However, there is strong skepticism, almost mistrust, that increased automation and autonomous (meaning self-driving) ships will contribute positively to safety,” says Asbjørn Lein Aalberg, a PhD candidate at NTNU’s Department of Industrial Economics and Technology Management and SINTEF Digital.

Aalberg has studied the relationship between maritime officers’ professional commitment and the attitudes they have towards automation and autonomous ships as part of his PhD research.  The study ‘Pride and mistrust? The association between maritime bridge crew officers’ professional commitment and trust in autonomy’ was recently published in the WMU Journal of Maritime Affairs. The research was conducted in collaboration with the Norwegian Maritime Authority and Safetec.

More than 8,000 Norwegian bridge officers participated in the 2023 survey (in Norwegian). This is probably the largest survey in this field to date, both nationally and internationally.

Looking for the reasons behind the skepticism

Sooner or later, society must accept using modes of transport such as passenger ferries that have little or no crew on board. Aalberg believes that in order for operations to be as safe as possible, employees are needed who know how to control and monitor this automation.

“If we are to get there, it is important to understand what is behind the seafarers’ skepticism. We need their engagement, willingness and interest to ensure that the technology and systems being developed are fit for purpose,” says the researcher.

The reason why bridge officers trust autopilots and similar systems is that they themselves are still in control and can choose to turn the systems on and off as and when they see fit.

Few women in the sample

Aalberg has taken a closer look at the answers given by captains and navigators on board. Collectively, this group consists of 1789 Norwegian and 227 international bridge officers of all ages, with everything from 0 to more than 26 years of experience. Women constitute only 11 percent of Norwegian seafarers, and only 2.4 per cent of the participants in this survey.

“This probably reflects the fact that there are even fewer women among the people working on the ship’s bridge,” says Aalberg.

Among other things, the bridge officers were asked about:

• Their thoughts and feelings about the automation of work tasks
• Their confidence in autonomous technology
• Their professional commitment and pride
• Their own management work related to safety

Seafarers with an extreme sense of duty

Aalberg says that bridge officers are very proud of their work and exhibit what he would call a rather extreme sense of duty to their own profession.

“This pride may lead to additional mistrust when faced with radical changes. In fact, we found that those who take the greatest pride in their profession are most sceptical about technological developments,” says the researcher.

Another finding that he finds quite alarming is this: among the bridge officers who take the greatest pride in their profession, it is the younger ones who have the least faith in autonomy.

“When envisioning their future career, maybe they feel like they have more to lose,” says Aalberg.

One of the oldest professions in the world

This area has seen little research, and Aalberg says we don’t currently know enough about why seafarers exhibit such strong mistrust. One reason for this is that there are currently not many autonomous ships, and they are a hot topic of speculation and debate. It is therefore important to emphasize that different points of view may be based on rumors, vague impressions and unfounded notions of what the changes will entail.

It is also often the case that autonomous vessels are spoken positively about by individuals who are relative newcomers to the maritime industry. The survey indicates that this could spark uncertainty among seafarers, both in terms of the motives and intentions behind autonomy.

“Despite the fact that there seems to be a great need for seafarers in the future, some people may be afraid of losing their jobs. But I think the skepticism is more about the changes being made to the nature of their work. For example, there would be a great deal of uncertainty among captains if the position were to lose its independence. We must not forget that the maritime profession has a very long tradition, where a captain’s authority and control have always been strong,” Aalberg says.

Researcher Asbjørn Lein Aalberg hopes authorities can use the research results in dialogue with shipping companies and technology providers. He says that these different groups should include seafarers when developing new concepts and technological solutions. Photo: SFI MOVE

Professional discretion

The PhD candidate has also interviewed 31 Norwegian seafarers on board highly automated Norwegian passenger ferries about their confidence in the advanced automated systems that have been installed.  This study gives some hints about what it takes for bridge officers to trust advanced technology. Among other things, it relates to their lack of trust in the machines’ ability to demonstrate true ‘seamanship’ and exercise professional discretion in traffic. In addition, the interviewees did not believe that the machines will manage emergency situations well enough. All in all, they believe that people are best suited to making decisions in complicated situations.

“The reason they still trust autopilots and similar systems is that they themselves have control and the option to turn them on or off as and when they see fit,”  Aalberg says.

The shipping company and technology developers have also had a very long and ultimately successful development process that he believes is needed to satisfy proud seafarers.

However, all the informants were skeptical about the impending changes and expressed concern that increased automation would compromise safety at sea.

Autopilot is ok, autonomy is not

The studies show that bridge officers make a clear distinction between automation and autonomy. Automation involves machines taking over some of their tasks, while autonomy, taken to its ultimate conclusion, means unmanned ships.

Aalberg provides a nuanced perspective on the development.

“Many researchers argue that humans will play a crucial role in human-automation collaboration, even on autonomous ships. Previously, there was more talk about removing people altogether, to put it bluntly,” says the researcher.

Seafarers must be consulted

He hopes the authorities can use the results of the research in dialogue with shipping companies and technology providers. He says they should include seafarers when developing new concepts and technological solutions.

“They have to make, and talk about, innovations in such a way that it sparks interest instead of skepticism,” he says.

He also believes that projects involving technological development should openly share real results from testing in order to provide a nuanced perspective of what seafarers may see as as being overly idealized.

“We also know that seafarers gain trust in advanced technology by trying the technology themselves. Keynote speakers or even colleagues talking about the systems is simply not enough. They want to try them themselves and see if the automation makes the same choices that they would have made, so perhaps the development process should be structured accordingly,”  Aalberg says.

The opinions expressed herein are the author's and not necessarily those of The Maritime Executive.

 

Two Electric Tugboats Enter Service at the Port of Vancouver, B.C.

Courtesy SAAM / Port of Vancouver

PUBLISHED APR 11, 2024 9:35 PM BY THE MARITIME EXECUTIVE

 

 

Two electric tugboats have entered service in the Port of Vancouver, marking an important milestone for Canada’s largest port. The two 100 percent electric tugboats were launched in a special event at the port with indigenous communities’ representatives, government officials and industry stakeholders.

“In all the world, there are only a handful of electric tugboats in operation. We’ll now see them hard at work in Vancouver’s magnificent harbor.  The reduction in pollution from these electric tugboats is the equivalent of taking 600 vehicles off the road,” said David Eby, Premier of British Columbia.

SAAM’s order for the two tugboats came through a contract with mining company Teck Resources, which agreed to use the vessels for towage at the Neptune coal/potash terminal at Port of Vancouver. The terminal is jointly owned by Teck and potash producer Canpotex (and Glencore, subject to regulatory approval sometime later this year). The German bulk carrier giant Oldendorff was also a partner in SAAM’s jump towards use of the electric tugboats.

“The christening and commissioning of our first electric tugs are proof of our commitment to move towards increasingly sustainable operations, seeking the best solutions tailored to each customer and conditions at each port,” said SAAM’s CEO, Macario Valdes.

The tug specialists at Sanmar Shipyards built the vessels in Turkey, using a Canadian design from their longtime partners at Robert Allan Ltd.  They have an overall length of 23 meters and can deliver a bollard pull of 70 tons.  

 

What Are China's Ambitions in the Antarctic?

Courtesy CHINARE

PUBLISHED APR 11, 2024 3:58 PM BY THE LOWY INTERPRETER

 

[By Benjamin Sacks and Peter Dortmans]

The recent opening of China’s Qinling base, its third permanent Antarctic station, has worried some Australian and American observers. Their concerns suggest it may be time for Australia to delineate China’s Antarctic ambitions more clearly and better organise its response.

Qinling is China’s first base located adjacent to the Ross Sea, south of Australia and New Zealand and near the US McMurdo base. Its satellite monitoring facility has raised Western apprehensions. Qinling could become another node in China’s People’s Liberation Army-affiliated BeiDou navigation network and be used to monitor Australian and New Zealand communications.

Some of Beijing’s own statements have supported these concerns, with China’s National Defense University’s Science of Military Strategy (2020) stating that “the polar regions have become an important direction for our country’s interests to expand overseas and far frontiers, and it has also proposed new issues and tasks for the use of our country’s military power”. Elizabeth Buchanan notes that the Chinese government’s civil-military fusion law requires “all civilian research activities…to have military application or utility for China. This extends to China’s Antarctic footprint”.

While experts should be concerned, they might be worried for the wrong reasons. Claire Young has stressed that Antarctica’s sheer remoteness and extreme climate limit its potential for Chinese military activities, at least with existing technology. She argues that Qinling is simply too distant from Australia and New Zealand to effectively monitor their communications. China could more easily monitor from neighbouring states or its disputed South China Sea artificial islands.

A 2023 RAND study, while acknowledging the potential military risks posed by China’s Antarctic activities, added that Chinese officials have affirmed their respect for the 1959 Antarctic Treaty and subsequent protocols, collectively known as the Antarctic Treaty System. The Madrid Protocol, for instance, banned Antarctic mining. China is a signatory.

The Ross Sea Marine Protected Area includes a (1) General Protection Zone; (2) Special Research Zone; and (3) Krill Research Zone (Wikimedia Commons)

What, then, are China’s long-term ambitions? Buchanan has argued that, in the Antarctic semi-regulated global commons, “presence equals power”. RAND, through an examination of both English- and Chinese-language sources, concluded that Beijing seeks a “right to speak” in Antarctic regional affairs and that this could be part of China’s efforts to shift the balance of Antarctic influence in its favour ahead of any future Antarctic Territory renegotiation.  

These efforts appear to be driven primarily by economics, especially in regard to krill fishing and mining, both of which fall under China’s vague goal of Antarctic “utilisation”. Along with Russia, China’s long-distance fishing fleet – the world’s largest – is rapidly expanding its krill industry, deploying super trawlers in the name of scientific research (in krill research zones) that will eventually collect more krill than is allowed under the Antarctic Territory System.

Both Russia and China have repeatedly rejected new marine protection areas and are likely to continue growing their lucrative fishing industries. China has so far resisted other signatories’ efforts to rein in its fishing ambitions. While other signatories are willing to abide by the limits imposed by the Antarctic Territory System, China and Russia appear to want to ignore them.

Similarly, China is eager to undertake onshore and offshore mineral extraction in Antarctica, despite being a signatory to the 1991 Madrid Protocol, which bans such activities. Some experts posit that in the future, China may be able to develop advanced mining technologies in anticipation of the Protocol’s potential 2048 renegotiation where it may seek to legalise some forms of mining. As the Antarctic Territory System currently has no enforcement mechanism, RAND added that Chinese Antarctic mining activities could consequently open “the floodgates for similar activities”.

Given that any signatory can call for the Antarctic Treaty’s renegotiation at any time – a privilege China has yet to invoke – it appears Beijing is biding its time while diversifying its Antarctic presence. Under this reasoning, China’s recent actions, including the opening of Qinling base, constitute long-term shaping activities to place itself in the strongest position possible ahead of any changes to the Treaty.

How should Australia and its allies and partners respond? Some observers have highlighted the Antarctic Territory System’s provision for unannounced inspections as key to mitigating Chinese ambitions. However, Russia has demonstrated that it can block inspections by making “station runways inaccessible” and switching off station radios “to block parties landing”.

Nengye Liu has suggested that Australia update its 2009 Australia–China Joint Statement to explicitly ensure the peaceful stability of bilateral Antarctic relations, given China’s significant Australian Antarctic Territory presence. Australia and its allies and partners should publicly “name-and-shame” China’s activities when and if they violate the Antarctic Territory System. Australia should consider sanctions against relevant Chinese individuals, state-owned enterprises, and the Polar Research Institute of China.

Given the uncertainties of Antarctica’s geopolitical future, as evidenced by growing concerns over China’s regional activities and ambitions, it may be time for the Australian Department of Foreign Affairs and Trade to establish its own Antarctic Affairs office. Such an office could be charged with establishing Australia’s future strategy and contingencies, working across government to implement its official position, and negotiating and building an international consensus with allies and partners.

Dr Benjamin J. Sacks is a policy researcher at RAND and a professor of political geography at the RAND Pardee Graduate School.

Dr Peter Dortmans is a Senior Researcher at RAND Australia, working primarily in strategic, technology and policy issues for the Defence and National Security community.

This article appears courtesy of The Lowy Interpreter and may be found in its original form here. 

The opinions expressed herein are the author's and not necessarily those of The Maritime Executive.

 

Lloyd's Gets Low Marks in Insurance-Industry ESG Survey

Inside the halls at Lloyd's of London (courtesy Lloyds of London / CC BY 2.5)

PUBLISHED APR 11, 2024 5:22 PM BY THE MARITIME EXECUTIVE

 

 

A British investment activism group has handed Lloyd's of London low marks on environmental and social responsibility, and has suggested imposing new regulations on the historic insurance marketplace if it does not improve. 

The activists' group, ShareAction, wants to see the British financial industry reorient towards adequate protection for both society and for the planet. It recently undertook a review of the nation's large insurers, including the Lloyd's market, to see how well their social-responsibility and climate policies stacked up against each other.  

Though Lloyd's has voluntary ESG guidance for its managing agents - the professionals who manage the operations of each Lloyd's syndicate - ShareAction found that it falls short of other institutions' recommendations. Managing agents who follow Lloyd's voluntary rules precisely would get a low score of 13/100 on ShareAction's assessment, and an "extremely poor" grade of "E." The market's voluntary guidance dates back three years, and recommends joining an ESG alliance that Lloyd's itself has since departed, ShareAction said. 

As would be expected, Lloyd's has no restrictions on underwriting business ventures in thermal coal or offshore oil and gas, both of which are staples of the shipping industry. ShareAction called for a commitment to phase out these carbon-intensive elements of the business. 

But the real responsibility lies with the managing agents themselves, as they each run an independent book of business. Nearly half received an "extremely poor" grade of "F" on the group's ratings, for several key reasons. Less than half of Lloyd’s of London managing agents have set any net-zero targets for their underwriting business, the group found. No managing agents have adopted a net-zero transition plan, though Lloyd's has launched a new consultation process for market-wide transition. Only a handful of agents offer insurance products for green businesses and projects.

"Raising performance among managing agents may therefore require that Lloyd’s of London mandate specific requirements for its agents," ShareAction wrote. "If ambition at Lloyd’s of
London is moving in the wrong direction, then such actions could be mandated by legislation
and regulation, particularly given Lloyd’s’ historic relationship to the British state."

Among all insurance industry members surveyed - within Lloyd's and without - ESG factors are rarely tied to management compensation. On a day-to-day level, this means that "climate targets are likely to be marginalized in practice and senior staff are primarily incentivized to meet other KPIs" like P&L, concluded ShareAction. 

 

Baltic Sea’s Largest Offshore Wind Farm Advances Towards Auction

iStock

PUBLISHED APR 10, 2024 11:00 PM BY THE MARITIME EXECUTIVE

 

 

With the construction of Poland’s largest offshore wind farm in the Baltic Sea on course, Equinor and the Polish utility company Polenergia have applied for an environmental approval for the connection infrastructure of the Baltyk I offshore wind project. The wind farm is the largest and most advanced offshore wind project in the Baltic Sea. It is the second phase of offshore wind energy development in Poland, coming after the earlier projects, Baltyk II and Baltyk III. According to the developers, the application for the environmental approval comes ahead of the planned auction for Baltyk I in 2025.

The three projects are jointly developed by Equinor and Polenergia. They will have a combined capacity of up to 3 GW, allowing 4 million Polish households to be supplied with green energy. Baltyk I is the largest of the wind farm projects, with a capacity of up to 1560 MW.  The wind farm is located about 50 miles from the coastline near the Leba Municipality.

Electricity from the project will flow via cables ashore to a connection point at the Polish Power Grid Krzemienica substation, which is under construction in the Redzikowo municipality.

“A common corridor section for the cable bringing power out of all the three Baltyk projects will significantly shorten the investment process, and make it easier and cheaper. The construction of the Baltyk I wind farm will benefit from the best practices developed in the construction of the earlier projects, Baltyk II and Baltyk III,” said Jerzy Zan, CEO of Polenergia.

The total distance prompted the developers to use direct current (HVDC) technology. This has already been installed at the largest offshore wind farm in the world - Dogger Bank in the UK, where the first power was fed into the grid last year.   

 

 

Chinese Trawlers and Warming Waters Fuel West African Fishery Crisis

Factory trawler off Ghana (File image courtesy EJF)

PUBLISHED APR 9, 2024 9:17 PM BY THE CONVERSATION

 

 

[By Robert Paarlberg]

Average fish catches by traditional fishing communities along the West African coast have declined significantly over the past three decades.

Along the Gulf of Guinea, stretching from Côte d'Ivoire to Nigeria, fishers launch their wooden canoes from the beach to catch small pelagic fish, like sardines and anchovies, which they sell into local informal markets to make a living. They have done this for generations, but since the 1990s, a decline in the catch has put their livelihoods at risk.

In Ghana, total landings of small pelagic fish fell by 59% between 1993 and 2019, despite increased fishing efforts. Landings of Sardinella aurita, a favored species, declined from 119,000 tonnes in 1992 to just 11,834 tonnes in 2019.

Côte d’Ivoire has experienced a parallel fisheries decline, with its catch plummeting nearly 40% between 2003 and 2020.

The continuing decline in fish catches has serious implications for some of the poorest families in the region. Ghana, for example, has more than 200,000 active fishers. More than two million others along the value chain, including thousands of women who process and sell fish at markets along the coast, are now at risk as well. Already living at or below the international poverty line (US$2.15 per person per day), these communities now face further income loss. In essence, they are falling deeper into poverty.

I have researched food and agricultural policy in a dozen African countries over the past three decades, but the current west African coastal fishing crisis in the Gulf of Guinea is complex because it has multiple and reinforcing origins: climate change, illegal fishing by China, and too many African canoes in the water.

My work on this crisis is part of a three-year study (2023-2025) funded by the Salata Institute at Harvard University. To pursue this work I spent three weeks in 2023 visiting coastal communities in Ghana, Côte d’Ivoire and Nigeria. On a return trip to Ghana in 2024, I will share the preliminary findings with local stakeholders, including fishing community leaders, local advocates and government officials. Meanwhile I set out the main findings below.

Climate

Among the multiple threats from climate change, ocean warming is probably the least appreciated. Plenty of warming is experienced on land, but roughly 90% of the extra heat trapped by greenhouse gas is absorbed into the ocean. This helps contain warming on land in the short run, but in the long run it brings a cascade of larger climate threats.

When ocean waters warm they expand in volume, and this thermal expansion is now the source of almost half of all sea-level rise. Warmer ocean waters also hold less oxygen, creating a threat to all marine life. But for human populations that catch fish for a living, ocean warming becomes an acute threat when it results in fish stock migrations.

Fish are cold-blooded, so if the water becomes too warm the only means they have to regulate their body temperature is to move away. This is what they have been doing along the warming equatorial currents in the Gulf of Guinea, and it accounts for some of the fish catch decline.

Dynamic bioclimate models allow us to project what continued ocean warming of this kind will do to Africa’s fish stocks. The models are widely used to forecast range shifts of organisms due to climate change and predict the eventual ranges of invasive species, among others.

One study found that the maximum catch potential for Ghana, Côte d’Ivoire and Nigeria would be reduced 50% by mid-century, compared to a zero ocean warming scenario. Another study published in 2018 was in rough agreement. It projected that climate change alone would reduce maximum catch potential in the Guinea Current System by 30% or more by 2050, even if the fisheries were well managed.

Unfortunately, Africa’s coastal fisheries are not being well managed.

Chinese trawlers

Lax regulation of international fishing trawlers is a second source of the recent fish catch decline.

Countries like Ghana, Nigeria and Côte’ d'Ivoire have laws that prevent foreign trawlers from getting a licence to fish within national exclusive economic zones, which extend 200 nautical miles beyond territorial seas. However, Chinese trawlers get around this barrier by using local companies as legal “fronts”. Chinese companies, thinly disguised as Ghanaian companies, currently own over 90% of Ghana’s licensed bottom trawlers. The Chinese vessels are damaging fish stocks by using illegal nets to catch too many undersized fish, including juveniles that have not yet had a chance to reproduce.

Chinese trawlers are occasionally fined for illegal practices in Ghana, but some fail to pay the fines and still do not lose their licence. This damaging non-enforcement of fishing laws is hard to understand, since the foreigners pay minimal taxes and licence fees, and most of the fish they catch are exported, adding almost nothing to national food supplies.

Too many canoes

Traditional fisherfolk in west Africa like to blame Chinese trawlers for diminished stocks of fish, but the increased fishing activities of their own canoes have been at least as damaging.

In west Africa there are now seven times as many canoes engaged in ocean fishing as there were in 1950. Today’s canoes have larger nets and bigger crews, and many have powerful outboard engines.

This expansion of the region’s artisanal fishing fleet has been driven by powerful demographic trends, including rapid rates of population growth plus steady human migrations towards the coast to escape impoverished rural farming.

This is why, between 1960 and 2023, the leading coastal cities in Ghana, Nigeria and Côte d’Ivoire saw population increases of at least seven-fold (Accra) and in some cases 30-fold (Abidjan). Having more people on the coast increases commercial demand for fish consumption while providing the added labour needed to catch, process and market the fish.

Despite the recent fish catch decline, canoe numbers have continued to increase; in Ghana there were 8,000 canoes in 1990, but by 2017 there were 13,650.

New livelihoods

Most traditional fishing communities will have to find new sources of income to survive. This won’t be easy since roughly 40% of coastal fishermen in Ghana and Nigeria have no formal education. Non-fishing jobs will increase in the fast-growing coastal economy. If the children of today’s fishing families stay in school long enough to complete a secondary education, most will be able to make the shift.

One policy measure to keep them in school would be to provide monthly cash transfers conditioned on school enrolment and attendance. Such conditional cash transfers have been producing results in other low- and middle-income regions. Data from 75 reports drawing on 35 studies show that conditional cash transfer policies can lead to a 60% increase in school enrolment.

Cash transfer policies are already in use in West Africa. Since 2008 Ghana has operated the Livelihood Empowerment against Poverty programme, providing cash and health insurance to the elderly poor, the disabled, pregnant women and infants. Expanding this program to poor coastal fishing families with school-aged children could promote education. For fishing communities threatened by falling fish stocks, this might be a path to future livelihood protection.

Robert Paarlberg is an Associate in Sustainability Science at the Harvard Kennedy School of Governance. 

This article appears courtesy of The Conversation and may be found in its original form here. 

The opinions expressed herein are the author's and not necessarily those of The Maritime Executive.

 

What We Know (And Don't Know) About the Ocean's Soaring Surface Temps

Another day, another record global average sea surface temperature (Full chart at climatereanalyzer.org / CC BY SA 4.0)

PUBLISHED APR 10, 2024 8:20 PM BY THE CONVERSATION

 

 

[By Alex Sen Gupta et al.]

Over the last year, our oceans have been hotter than any time ever recorded. Our instrumental record covers the last 150 years. But based on proxy observations, we can say our oceans are now hotter than well before the rise of human civilisation, very likely for at least 100,000 years.

This isn’t wholly unexpected. Ocean temperatures have been steadily rising due to human-caused global warming, which in turn means record hottest years have become increasingly common. The last time ocean temperature records were broken was 2016 and before that it was 2015. The last year we experienced a record cold year was way back at the start of the 20th century.

But what is remarkable about the past year is the huge ongoing spike in global ocean temperature which began in April last year. Last year was hotter than the previous record year by a whopping 0.25°C. In contrast the margins of other previous record years were all less than 0.1°C.

Why? Global warming is the main reason. But it doesn’t explain why the heat spike has been so large. Climate drivers such as El Niño likely play a role, as do the random alignment of certain weather events and possibly the reduction in sulfur emissions from shipping. Researchers around the world are trying to understand what’s going on.

How big is the jump in heat?

You can see the surge in heat very clearly in the near-global ocean surface temperature data.

Averaged ocean surface temperatures between 60 degrees south and 60 degrees north of the equator, inspired by ClimateReanalyzer.org. Each coloured line represents the temperature of a single year. Author provided, CC BY

The trend is clear to see. Earlier years (in blue) are typically cooler than later years (in red), reflecting the relentless march of global warming. But even with this trend, there are outliers. In 2023 and 2024, you can see a huge jump above previous years.

These record temperatures have been widespread, with the oceans of the southern hemisphere, northern hemisphere and the tropics all reaching record temperatures.

What’s behind the surge?

We don’t yet have a complete explanation for this record burst of warming. But it’s likely several factors are involved.

First, and most obvious, is global warming. Year on year the ocean is gaining heat through the enhanced greenhouse effect – indeed over 90% of the heat associated with human-caused global warming has gone into the oceans.

The extra heat pouring into the oceans results in a gradual rise in temperature, with the trend possibly accelerating. But this alone doesn’t explain why we have experienced such a big jump in the last year.

Then there are the natural drivers. The El Niño event developing in June last year has certainly played a substantial role.

El Niño and its partner, La Niña, are opposite ends of a natural oscillation, the El Niño Southern Oscillation, which plays out in the tropical Pacific ocean. This cycle moves heat vertically between the ocean’s deeper waters and the surface. When El Niño arrives, warmer water comes up to the surface. During La Niña, the opposite occurs.

You can see the impact of an El Niño on short term temperature spikes clearly, even against a backdrop of strong long-term warming.

This figure shows global ocean temperatures with El Niño years (red dots) and La Niña years (blue dots) highlighted. Author provided

But even climate change and El Niño combined aren’t enough to explain it.

Other natural heat-transferring oscillations, such as the Indian Ocean Dipole or the North Atlantic Oscillation, may play a role.

It may also be that our successful efforts to cut aerosol pollution from the dirty fuel shipping relies on has had an unwanted side effect: more warming. With less reflective aerosols in the atmosphere, more of the Sun’s energy can reach the surface.

But there’s probably also a level of random chance. Chaotic weather systems over the ocean can reduce cloud cover, which can let in more solar radiation. Or these weather systems could weaken winds, reducing cooling evaporation.

Why is this important?

To us, a warmer ocean might feel pleasant. But the extra heat manifests underwater as an unprecedented series of major marine heatwaves. The ocean’s organisms are picky about their preferred temperature range. If the heat spikes too much and for too long, they have to move or die.

Marine heatwaves can lead to mass death or mass migration for marine mammals, seabirds, fish and invertebrates. They can cause vital kelp forests and seagrass meadows to die, leaving the animals depending on them without shelter or food. And they can disrupt species important for fisheries and tourism.

This year’s heat stress has caused widespread coral bleaching around the world. Bleaching has been seen on reefs in the Caribbean, Florida, Egypt, and the Great Barrier Reef.

In the cooler waters of Tasmania, extraordinary conservation efforts have been put in place to try and protect endangered fish species such as the red handfish from the heat, while in the Canary Islands, small scale commercial fisheries have popped up for species not normally found there.

Last year, Peru’s anchovy fishery – the country’s largest – was closed for long periods, leading to export losses estimated at $1.4 billion.

What’s going to happen next?

Given the record temperatures stem from a combination of human-induced climate change and natural sources, it’s very likely ocean temperatures will drop back to more “normal” temperatures. Normal now is, of course, much warmer than in previous decades.

In the next few months, forecasts suggest we have a fair chance of heading into another La Niña.

If this eventuates, we might see slightly cooler temperatures than the new normal, but it’s still too early to know for sure.

One thing is certain though. As we struggle to rein in greenhouse gas emissions, the steady march of global warming will keep adding more heat to the oceans. And another spike in global ocean warming won’t be too far away.

Alex Sen Gupta is a Senior Lecturer, School of Biological, Earth and Environmental Sciences, UNSW Sydney.

Kathryn Smith is a Postdoctoral Research Scientist, Marine Biological Association.

Matthew England is Scientia Professor and Deputy Director of the ARC Australian Centre for Excellence in Antarctic Science (ACEAS), UNSW Sydney.

Neil Holbrook is a Professor at University of Tasmania.

Thomas Wernberg is a Professor at The University of Western Australia.

Zhi Li is a Postdoctoral researcher, Centre for Marine Science & Innovation, UNSW Sydney.

This article appears courtesy of The Conversation and may be found in its original form here.

The opinions expressed herein are the author's and not necessarily those of The Maritime Executive.

 

Another Boxship Loses Propulsion Near an Iconic East Coast Bridge

This time, escort tugs helped it safely divert to an anchorage

Tugs helped APL Qingdao slow down and divert to the west, to a safe anchorage (AIS trackline courtesy Pole Star)

PUBLISHED APR 8, 2024 1:32 PM BY THE MARITIME EXECUTIVE

 

 

The container ship APL Qingdao experienced a temporary loss of propulsion as she approached the Verrazzano Narrows Bridge on Friday night, the U.S. Coast Guard has confirmed to ABC News. The cause and exact nature of the mechanical casualty have not been disclosed, but the incident is receiving extra scrutiny: the container ship Dali experienced loss of power and allided with Baltimore's Francis Scott Key Bridge less than two weeks earlier, killing six and shutting down the port. 

AIS data from Pole Star shows that APL Qingdao departed the GCT New York terminal on Staten Island at about 1930 hours on Friday night. She was making about six knots as she exited the Kill Van Kull and rounded Staten Island's St. George Terminal, headed south for the Verrazzano Narrows. 

At about 2100, at a distance of about 3,000 meters from the bridge's center span, she slowed to four knots. Over the course of the next 15 minutes and 1,500 meters, she slowed to a near-stop, then diverted to a safe anchorage off Buono Beach. 

"The vessel regained propulsion and was assisted to safely anchor in Stapleton Anchorage, outside the navigable channel just north of the Verrazzano Bridge, by three towing vessels," the Coast Guard said in a statement. "These towing vessels were escorting the vessel as a routine safety measure, which is a common practice for large vessels departing their berth."

After the incident, the APL Qingdao was repaired and inspected to the Coast Guard's satisfaction. The vessel stayed at anchor for two days, then resumed her commercial voyage to Norfolk, where she is currently moored. 

APL Qingdao is a 10,000 TEU boxship operated by CMA CGM. She is approximately the same size and age as Dali, and both were built by the same South Korean shipyard. 

However, there were key differences between the two incidents. Unlike the Dali, APL Qingdao did not experience a total blackout, the Coast Guard said - only loss of propulsion. Dali also lacked escort tugs, which are not required at Port of Baltimore, and she was traveling approximately three knots faster when trouble began.  

The Verrazzano Narrows Bridge is also better protected against large vessels, according to its operator. It has large rock walls surrounding its piers, which are designed to fend off allisions. Baltimore's Key Bridge had little protection against full-size modern ships.