ANALYSIS: Russian Orthodox Church Hails Moscow’s Imperialist Expansionism as a ‘Holy War’

Moscow Patriarchate calls for the conquest and absorption of the Ukrainian and Belarusian nations into an ultranationalist ‘Russian world'.

By ISW
March 30, 2024, 

President Vladimir Putin and Russian Orthodox Patriarch Kirill. AFP

The Russian Orthodox Church Moscow Patriarchate (ROC MP), a Kremlin-controlled organization and a known tool within the Russian hybrid warfare toolkit, held the World Russian People’s Council in Moscow on March 27 and 28 and approved an ideological and policy document tying several Kremlin ideological narratives together in an apparent effort to form a wider nationalist ideology around the war in Ukraine and Russia’s expansionist future.

ROC MP Head Patriarch Kirill, reportedly himself a former Soviet Committee for State Security (KGB) officer and a known staunch supporter of Russian President Vladimir Putin, chaired the congress of the World Russian People's Council that approved the document, and Kirill likely coordinated the document’s ideological narrative and policy recommendations with the Kremlin.

The document, "The Present and Future of the Russian World,” addresses Russian legislative and executive authorities with specific calls to amend Russian policy documents and laws. These calls are likely either attempts to socialize desired Kremlin policies among Russians before their implementation or to test public reactions to policies that Kremlin officials are currently considering.

Putin and Kremlin officials have gradually attempted to elaborate on amorphous ideological narratives about the war in Ukraine and their envisioned geopolitical confrontation with the West since the start of the full-scale invasion, and the ROC MP appears to be offering a more coherent ideological framework for Russians.

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The ROC MP released the document a week after the Crocus City Hall terrorist attack and roughly a month before the start of the Orthodox Easter Holy Week, and likely aims to seize on heightened anxieties following the terrorist attack and increased Russian Orthodoxy observance to garner support for its desired ultranationalist policies and ideological vision.

The ROC MP intensified Kremlin rhetoric about Russia’s war in Ukraine and cast it as an existential and civilizational “holy war,” a significant inflection for Russian authorities who have so far carefully avoided officially framing Russia’s invasion of Ukraine as any kind of “war.” The ROC MP called Putin’s “special military operation” a holy war (Svyashennaya Voyna) and a new stage in the Russian people’s struggle for “national liberation...in southwestern Russia,” referencing eastern and southeastern Ukraine.

The ROC MP claimed that the Russian people are defending their lives, freedom, and statehood; their civilizational, religious, national, and cultural identity; and their right to live within the borders of a single Russian state by waging Putin’s war of conquest in Ukraine.

The ROC MP argued that the war in Ukraine is a holy war because Russia is defending “Holy Russia” and the world from the onslaught of globalism and the victory of the West, which has fallen into Satanism.

The ROC MP asserted that the war in Ukraine will conclude with Russia seizing exclusive influence over the entire territory of modern Ukraine and the exclusion of any Ukrainian government that the Kremlin determines to be hostile to Russia.

The ROC MP’s description of Russian goals is in line with repeated Kremlin statements indicating that Putin retains his objective to destroy Ukrainian sovereignty and statehood. The ROC MP’s use and description of the holy war in Ukraine is also consistent with Kremlin efforts to frame the war as an existential national struggle against Ukraine and the collective West but notably expands the alleged threats that defeat in Ukraine poses for Russians.

The term “holy war” may also conjure allusions to the Great Patriotic War (the Second World War), as the Soviet Union’s unofficial war anthem shared the same name, and the Kremlin has routinely invoked the mythos of the Great Patriotic War to generate domestic support for the war in Ukraine.

The Kremlin has continued to stress that the war in Ukraine is a “special military operation,” however, and the ROC MP’s direct acknowledgment of the conflict as a holy war may elicit support from Russians who have found the Kremlin’s comparatively restrained rhetoric uninspiring. The ROC MP did not define the holy war as a purely Orthodox concept and instead tied it to the Kremlin’s purposefully broad conception of who is a part of the Russian nation and Russkiy Mir (Russian World).

Ukrainian victory does not pose these existential threats, however, as Ukraine’s struggle to restore its territorial integrity, return its people, and defend its national identity does not infringe on Russian identity, statehood, or territorial integrity.

The ROC MP called for the codification of elements of the Russkiy Mir and may be gauging public support for the formal inclusion of ethnic Ukrainians and Belarusians in the Kremlin’s concept of the Russian nation. The ROC MP stated that Russia is the “creator, support, and defender” of the Russkiy Mir and that the Russkiy Mir is a “spiritual, cultural, and civilizational phenomenon” that transcends the borders of the Russian Federation and historical Russian lands and encompasses everyone that values Russian traditions and culture.

The ROC MP claimed the Russkiy Mir’s mission is to destroy and prevent efforts to establish “universal hegemony in the world” and that the reunification of the “Russian nation” should be one of the priorities of Russian foreign policy.


The ROC MP stated that Russia should return to the “trinity doctrine” of the Russian nation, which falsely asserts that the “Russian nation” is comprised of sub-groups of ethnic Russians, Belarusians, and Ukrainians whom Russia should reunify.

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The ROC MP called on Russia to codify the “trinity doctrine” in law, make it an “integral part” of the Russian legal system, include it in the “normative list” of Russian spiritual and moral values, and give the concept legal protection.

Putin and other Kremlin officials have consistently invoked similar claims about the “Russian people” and Russkiy Mir since before the full-scale Russian invasion of Ukraine as a means to justify Russian aggression against Ukraine while undermining Ukraine’s sovereignty and territorial integrity and denying the existence of a Ukrainian ethnic identity. The ROC MP may be gauging the response to the idea of codifying the “trinity doctrine” on the Kremlin’s orders. The Kremlin may codify this doctrine as official Russian policy.

The ROC MP heavily emphasized Russia’s need for traditional family values and an updated migration policy to counter Russia’s ongoing demographic crisis. The ROC MP labeled Russia’s demographic crisis as Russia’s main existential threat and characterized steady demographic growth as a critical national security priority. The ROC MP asserted that Russia should aim to grow its population to 600 million people (a roughly 450 million increase) in the next 100 years and laid out a series of measures that it envisions would allow Russia to achieve this monumental task.

The ROC MP called for the revival of the “traditional large family” and traditional family values in Russia – echoing Russian President Vladimir Putin’s emphasis on 2024 as the “Year of the Family” in recent major national addresses. The ROC MP claimed that the Russian government should recognize the family and its well-being as Russia’s “main national development goal” and a “strategic national priority” and should amend Russia’s main strategic planning documents to reflect this. The ROC MP called on Russian popular culture to create a “cult of the family” in society and suggested various economic benefits the state should enact to encourage larger families.

The ROC MP claimed that a new state migration policy is also key to an “effective” demographic policy. The ROC MP complained that migrants who do not speak Russian, do not understand Russian history and culture, and cannot integrate into Russian society are “deforming” Russia’s unified legal, cultural, and linguistic space. The ROC MP alleged that the “uncontrolled” influx of migrant labor decreases the “indigenous” population’s wages and access to jobs and that “closed ethnic enclaves” are “breeding grounds” for corruption, organized crime, extremism, and terrorism.

The ROC MP offered a series of policy recommendations that Russia should prioritize in a new migration policy, including “significant” restrictions on low-skilled foreign laborers, guarantees of employment and high incomes for Russian citizens, protections of the rights and interests of ethnic Russians, and other indigenous peoples of Russia, the mass repatriation of "compatriots” to Russia, and the relocation of highly-skilled foreign specialists who are loyal to Russia and ready to integrate into Russian society.

The ROC MP’s demographic and migration policy suggestions continue to highlight how the Kremlin struggles with inconsistent and contradictory policies concerning migrants and the interests of its ultranationalist population. Select Russian officials and ultranationalist voices have recently called for Russia to enact anti-migrant policies following the Crocus City Hall terrorist attack, but ISW continues to assess that Russia is unlikely to introduce any restrictions that would reduce the number of migrants in Russia given that Russia continues to heavily rely on migrants to offset domestic labor shortages and for force generation efforts.

Putin asserted in December 2023 that Russia’s “compatriots abroad” are those who have historical, cultural, or linguistic ties to Russia, and the ROC MP appears to suggest that the repatriation of such “compatriots” to Russia could be a large resource Russia could tap into to solve its demographic crisis. Some of the ROC MP’s other policy recommendations, however, contradictorily seek to restrict some of the very migrants that would fall under Putin’s definition of “compatriots abroad.” The ROC MP’s approach to the Russkiy Mir appears to be at odds with Putin’s previous definition of Russkiy Mir which posits a diverse and inclusive Russian civic nationalism.

The ROC MP appears to be combining previously parallel Kremlin narrative efforts into a relatively cohesive ideology focusing on national identity and demographic resurgence that promises Russians a period of national rejuvenation in exchange for social and civic duties.

The ROC MP highlighted that “the restoration of the unity of the Russian people” through the war in Ukraine is a key condition for Russia’s survival and successful development throughout the 21st century. This call for restoration amounts to the full-scale destruction of the Ukrainian nation and its envelopment into Russia.

The ROC MP aims to also envelop ethnic Belarusians into the Russian nation through its conception of the “trinity doctrine” while also massively repatriating other “compatriots” abroad. The ROC MP’s calls for Russians to assume the responsibility for steadily increasing birth rates and averting demographic catastrophe similarly promises Russians that Russian sovereignty and identity will persist in the 21st century.

These efforts to expand Russia’s control over those it considers to be a part of the Russkiy Mir, whether through mass repatriation or forceful means like Russia’s war of conquest in Ukraine, serve the same purpose as the calls for Russians to increase birth rates — increasing Russia’s overall population with people that ultranationalists consider to be “Russian.”

The ROC MP argued that the establishment of a stable and sovereign Russkiy Mir under the Russian state will lead to economic opportunity and Russia’s role as one of the leading centers of a multipolar world order. The ROC MP stated that the typical embodiment of the Russkiy Mir after the promised national rejuvenation would be a Russian family with three or more children and their own single-family home, offering ordinary Russians future socioeconomic benefits in exchange for sacrifices made now in backing the ROC MP’s suggested ultranationalist ideology and achieving Russia’s “unification” with Ukraine and Belarus.

The ROC MP’s suggested ideology explicitly ties Russian national security to the preservation of an imagined and disputed Russian nation and Russian demographic growth, offering the Kremlin expanded justifications for acts of aggression against neighboring countries and the West in the name of protecting the overall size and growth of the imagined Russkiy Mir.

The Kremlin may choose not to fully align itself publicly with the ultranationalist ideology that the ROC MP has proposed at this time but will highly likely borrow from and leverage it to generate support for the war effort in Ukraine and any future acts of aggression against Russia’s neighbors and the West.

See the original here.

ANALYSIS: Where Could Ukraine Get More Patriot Missile Systems From?

Ukraine says it needs 25 Patriot systems to fully protect it from Russian missile attacks and says it knows which countries hold them. But who will give theirs up?

By Steve Brown
April 12, 2024


The “Phased Array Tracking Radar to Intercept on Target” (PATRIOT) surface-to-air guided air and missile defense system was advertised as one of the best available, based on its test performances long before it was used “in anger.”

The first Patriots were deployed by US Forces in the mid-1980s and during the first Gulf War they performed well against the Iraqi Scud missile threat. Since then, the system – its radars, fire control systems and especially its missiles – has evolved, been modernized, and upgraded as the threat has similarly become technologically more advanced.

Even so, the performance of the “2020s” versions has surprised everyone and underlined their indispensability as the basis for a modern multi-tier air defense structure. It is not only in Ukraine that Patriot has proved itself.

In Saudi Arabia, it has succeeded in bringing down multiple ballistic missiles fired by Houthi rebels against oil and infrastructure facilities and has been used extensively in Israel against drone, missile and air attacks.

In Ukraine, the missile has been successfully used defensively, against all types of air attack including cruise, ballistic and even hypersonic missiles. It has also been used in an innovative semi-mobile aggressive role to take down key aviation assets such as the high-value A-50U “Mainstay” airborne early warning and control (AEW&C) aircraft.


The bottom line is Ukraine doesn’t have enough of either launchers or missiles to protect itself against the current levels of Russian missile attacks. On April 6 President Volodymyr Zelensky said that to fully protect Ukraine from Russian missile attacks 25 Patriot systems, each consisting of 6-8 missile batteries, were needed.

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On Wednesday, April 10, Ukraine’s Foreign Minister, Dmytro Kuleba said that he and his team had identified 100 Patriot systems being held worldwide. He said that some neighboring countries were using more than one complete system to guard a single airport. This was a follow-up to similar comments he had made while attending NATO’s 75th anniversary celebrations on April 3.


System Description

Patriot has four operational functions: communications, command and control, radar surveillance and interceptor missile guidance.

Each battery consists of six major components: power plant, radar set, engagement control station, launchers, antenna mast group, and the interceptor missiles themselves.The phased array radar set is resistant to jamming to provide detection and tracking of targets, fire control and helps guide interceptors to their targets.The manned engagement control station calculates trajectories for interceptors, controls the launching sequence and provides a communication link between launchers and other batteries.The launchers transport and protect the interceptor missiles and act as the missile launch platform.The antenna mast group is the communications backbone for the Patriot unit.There are two main missile types: the proximity-fused PAC-2 and the PAC-3 “hittile,” designed to intercept and destroy missiles by impacting them.

Who has Patriots?

Raytheon, that US defense contractor that designed and built the system, says it has delivered more than 240 Patriot fire units to 19 nations, while Lockheed Martin, the other US defense giant, has manufactured more than 10,000 missiles. By all accounts, the war in Ukraine is resulting in both corporations ramping up their manufacturing capability, not just to feed Ukraine’s needs but to address the interest the success of Patriot has sparked worldwide.








Persuading any nation which hasn’t already done so to voluntarily give up its Patriot missiles may be a challenge, but there is a potential solution.

As a result of the ongoing war in Ukraine and at the urging of the US government, both Raytheon and Lockheed Martin have increased their build capacity, as have component manufacturers such as Boeing, according to Defense News.

Raytheon is now able to produce 12 complete systems a year while Lockheed is already churning out 500 of the latest PAC-3 missiles annually with a target to get to 650 by 2027.

Some of its 2024 production has already been earmarked to replace US Patriots previously provided to Ukraine and this could be an option to any nation ready to transfer their own stocks. The attraction would be “new for old,” which has been the basis for many of the equipment donations previously made to Ukraine during the two years of the ongoing war.

With the European Parliament applying pressure on European holders of the systems to release Patriots by blocking the EU Council Budget, there are several users who don’t currently face an imminent threat, who might be better placed to ante-up. The key to achieving this would be finding the best combination of “carrot and stick” to encourage release of the Patriots.

The bottom line is that, as always, the best way forward will rely on the release of the funds currently blocked by the US Congress, although Ukraine’s Foreign Minister, Dmitry Kuleba, has indicated that if the weapons became available Ukraine would find the funding needed to hire systems if not buy them.



Steve Brown
After a career as a British Army Ammunition Specialist and Bomb Disposal Officer, Steve later worked in the fields of ammunition destruction, demining and explosive ordnance disposal with the UN and NATO. In 2017, after taking early retirement, he moved to Ukraine with his Ukrainian wife and two sons where he became a full-time writer. He now works as an English language editor with the Kyiv Post.

Ukraine's air defence shortages leave Kharkiv more exposed to Russian bombs

US PATRIOT MISSLE DEFENSE DENIED SINCE '22

By Tom Balmforth

April 12, 2024

Summary

Ukraine's second city hardest hit by Russian air strikes

Russia wants residents to panic and flee Kharkiv: officials

Ukraine has 'catastrophic' shortage of air defences

War rages on, but momentum shifting in Russia's favour

Ukraine faces manpower, artillery problems, says analyst

KHARKIV, Ukraine, April 12 (Reuters) - Kateryna Velnychuk was having an afternoon nap when an explosion shattered the windows of her ground-floor flat, spraying shrapnel that tore holes through her walls and cupboards.
A Russian guided bomb had exploded in the courtyard outside the five-storey Soviet-era building, killing a postman on his rounds. As her flat filled with thick, milky smoke, the 22-year-old turned to see blood pouring from her boyfriend Vladyslav's head.

“As we’ve been living…in a state of war, there was no sense of fear in the moment,” Velnychuk said. “You just understand there was an explosion. The only thought in your head is ‘I hope we survive’.”

As Russia has intensified its air campaign against Ukraine in the last month, hammering its energy infrastructure and urban areas, no major city has been harder hit than Kharkiv.
Just 30 km (18 miles) from the Russian border in northeast Ukraine, Kharkiv was already the most exposed to missile attacks and bombardment.

But the drying up of Western military support in recent months – as a vital U.S. military aid package has been stuck in Congress amid Republican resistance – has left Kharkiv even more dangerously unprotected.

"We have a catastrophic shortage of air defence systems," Governor Oleh Synehubov told Reuters, standing in the city’s vast central plaza, Freedom Square. "Not only in the Kharkiv region, but throughout the entire country. Especially in the Kharkiv region."

The city is so near the border that Russian missiles can reach their target in less than a minute. The deployment of Ukraine’s precious air defences, such as the U.S.-made Patriot surface-to-air missile systems, which are high-value targets for Russian airstrikes, has to be done more cautiously so close to enemy lines, officials say.

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy, who has urgently appealed for more air defence supplies from the West, said this week that almost a quarter of Kharkiv had been destroyed.

He accused Russia of seeking to reduce the city - which was home to 2 million people before the war - to rubble, clearing the way for its troops to advance. He said Ukraine's military would repel any such offensive.

The bombardments come as the momentum on the battlefield has shifted in Russia's favour, more than two years since it launched its Feb. 2022 invasion.

Russia denies targeting civilians and says Ukraine’s energy system is a legitimate military target. The Russian defence ministry did not immediately respond to a request for comment for this story.

Reuters interviewed 15 civilians in Kharkiv who expressed their determination to stay in their homes despite the attacks - though two of them flagged the bleak situation on the power front as a real concern.

At least 10 missiles rained down on Kharkiv on Thursday, triggering emergency blackouts for 200,000 people in the surrounding region, as Russia launched its third major air attack on energy infrastructure across Ukraine in recent weeks.

The region's top prosecutor Oleksandr Filchakov told Reuters that all of the Kharkiv region's power facilities have been damaged or destroyed since Russia renewed its aerial assault last month, causing large-scale power cuts.

Russia had test-fired a new kind of aircraft-launched guided bomb at least six times as of Tuesday, he said, like the one that struck the courtyard outside Velnychuk's home.
The weapon, which Filchakov called a “unified multi-purpose guided munition”, weighs just 250 kilogrammes (550 pounds) and has a range of 90 km (56 miles), meaning aircraft have no need to risk getting close to the city’s defences.

While the guided bombs are less accurate and destructive than other missiles used by Russia, such as S-300s and Iskanders, they are much cheaper for Russia to produce, he said.

"The (attacks) are mainly aimed at intimidating the civilian population," Filchakov told Reuters in his offices. "They're trying to make people leave the city, leave their buildings, homes, apartments...To sow panic in the city."

Strikes and shelling have killed 97 civilians in the region this year, he said, adding that nearly all the recent attacks had hit civilian targets.

Velnychuk was shaken but suffered no major injuries from the guided bomb that landed outside her building on March 27, blowing out all the windows along two rows of the red-brick residential buildings. But both she and her partner, who works as a courier, said they had no plans to leave the city.

"I always imagined I would grow up and have some kind of life, move from the village to the city, study. Now I live and ... I don't even know if I'll wake up tomorrow morning," said Velynchuk, a hairdresser.

"But, at the same time, you want to live in your own home. It's normal to want to live where you were born."

RUSSIA GAINS MOMENTUM

 Local resident Kateryna Velnychuk, 22-years-old, shows her apartment damaged by a Russian military strike on March 27, amid Russia's attack on Ukraine, in Kharkiv, Ukraine, April 8, 2024. REUTERS/Vyacheslav Madiyevskyy

After months of attritional fighting, Russia is slowly advancing in Ukraine's eastern region of Donetsk this year. Kyiv's forces find themselves on the back foot, facing shortages of artillery shells and air defences, and grappling with manpower problems.

Ukraine's parliament passed legislation on Thursday to overhaul how the armed forces draft civilians into the ranks, in an effort to bolster the frontlines. The final law, however, excluded clauses on draconian penalties for draft dodging that had caused public outcry.
Much would depend on how well the new law – expected to take effect in mid-May - was implemented, analysts said.

"There are two issues now: the ammunition issue and the manpower issue. If they address them, I think Ukraine can hold back Russian advances," said Rob Lee, a senior fellow at the Foreign Policy Research Institute, a think tank in Philadelphia.

“But if they don't get addressed, there is a potential that Russia will make greater gains this summer."

Ukraine has tried to find a pressure point against Russia by bombing oil facilities far behind the front lines using long-range drones that have taken out 14% of energy giant Russia's oil refining capacity, according to Reuters calculations.

Zelenskiy, who inspected Ukrainian defensive fortifications in the Kharkiv region on Tuesday, has said Russia may be preparing a big offensive in late May or in June. He did not say where.

Russia, which captured the eastern town of Avdiivka in February and controls 18% of Ukrainian territory, has inched forward in the Donetsk region, keeping up pressure on the fronts west of Avdiivka and the city of Bakhmut.

Lee said Russia had fixed its own manpower problems and managed to recruit a large number of volunteers, allowing it to sustain losses in assaults, but that it faced equipment limitations that could become a problem next year.

Russia's decision on where to attack, he said, would in part depend on where it thought Ukraine looked weakest, although Moscow would likely maintain its focus on the eastern Donbas region.

Putin said last month he did not rule out Russia trying to establish a buffer zone inside Ukrainian territory along the Russian border.

Oleksandr Kovalenko, an independent military analyst based in Odesa, said the strikes on Kharkiv looked aimed at setting in motion such a plan by trying to scare people to leave the city, laying the ground for a possible ground operation at a later date.
"For the moment, Russia does not have the forces and equipment to seize the city, but in the medium term they can terrorise the civilian population to prepare the corresponding conditions."

'HOW COULD I LEAVE?'

Kharkiv, an industrial hub that once served as the capital of Soviet Ukraine, is a jarring contrast of 1.3 million people going about their lives amid regular air raid sirens and the sound of machine guns downing drones at night.

Schools in the city have been closed because of the threat of attacks and children study online. But authorities have opened underground classrooms in a metro station to allow some pupils to come to classes in person.

The city’s population plunged to 300,000 after the invasion but, after Ukraine recaptured occupied areas of the region in two military offensives in 2022, it returned to around 1.3 million, where it has remained since.

Viktoria Zaremba, 37, a web designer and mother of a 10-year-old boy, said more than two years of war had changed her perception of risk.

"There is no fear," she said. She would only consider leaving Kharkiv if there were no central heating or electricity this winter, or a looming threat of occupation.

The number of attacks on the city and region began increasing in October, Filchakov said, rising more than 35% in the first three months this year to 130 from 95 in the last quarter of 2023.

They have intensified again this month, he said.

Rolling blackouts last up to 12 hours a day and the traffic lights don't work. Mobile coverage is patchy, online GPS maps don't function properly, and the street lights stay off at night.

But Synehubov, the regional governor, said there was no sign people were abandoning the city.

"I'll never leave," said Borys Nosov, 63, a pensioner walking his dog in the city centre. Nosov said he was a veteran of the 1979-1989 Soviet-Afghan war.

"This is my city. How could I leave and abandon it? I served in Afghanistan. That was terrifying. I think everything will be okay."

HATERS HATE

Rep. Marjorie Taylor Greene says she ‘seriously hates’ people who support sending more aid to Ukraine: ‘Most repulsive, disgusting thing happening’

By Victor Nava

NY POST
Published April 12, 2024, 

Rep. Marjorie Taylor Greene (R-Ga.) fumed Friday about people demanding that Congress approve more military aid to Ukraine, arguing that it is tantamount to “paying for the slaughter and the murder” of Ukrainian soldiers.

“This whole thing is the most repulsive, disgusting thing happening, and the American people are the ones writing the check,” the Georgia Republican told former White House adviser Steve Bannon on his “War Room” podcast.

“I absolutely hate everybody here that is doing this,” she added. “I seriously hate them for doing this.”

The Georgia Republican said that she “hates” people who support sending more military aid to Ukraine.

DNC War Room/X

Greene said her “stomach flipped” at the thought of providing Ukraine with President Biden’s $60 billion emergency funding request, and predicted that House Speaker Mike Johnson (R-La.) — who she has threatened to have removed from the speaker’s office — will eventually find a way to pass the measure.

“Everybody should be demanding that the Republican-elected speaker of the House stop listening to the garbage and lies that he’s being told and do the right thing,” Greene said, arguing that the $60 billion would be better spent on US border security.

The congresswoman claimed that “amputees” and “injured soldiers” are being trotted out to the frontlines of Ukraine’s battle with Russia because Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky is being forced by US politicians to continue the fight.

“America is breathing down their throats and saying, ‘You must continue to fight and we’re going to pay for it and force you to do it,’” Greene told Bannon.

The Republican firebrand also dismissed fears that Russian President Vladimir Putin has interest in invading other European nations and questioned why the Biden administration is so keen on providing military support for a non-NATO nation.

Greene argued that an “entire generation of Ukrainian men” are being wiped out because of American politicians funding Ukraine’s defensive war against Russia.

AFP via Getty Images

Zelensky has urged Congress to approve more military aid for Ukraine

UKRAINIAN PRESIDENTIAL PRESS SERVICE/AFP via Getty Images

“That is the only country that — for some weird, sick and evil reason — that they care about,” Greene said.

“They don’t care about you at home.”

For nearly two months, the House has stalled on passing a $95 billion Senate-approved national security package with funding for Ukraine, Israel, and the Indo-Pacific region.
268

Greene has warned Johnson that a vote on Ukraine aid could trigger her to introduce a motion to vacate, the same legislative procedure that Rep. Matt Gaetz (R-Fla.) used last October to oust former House Speaker Kevin McCarthy (R-Calif.)

The last US aid package to Ukraine was sent in March, some $300 million worth of military equipment from existing US stockpiles.

Ukraine’s Three-Front War: Advancing Russians, Depleted Artillery, Exhausted Troops – Analysis

A Ukrainian soldier digs a trench. Photo Credit: Ukraine Defense Ministry

 April 13, 2024  

By RFE RL

By Mike Eckel

(RFE/RL) — The column of Russian armored vehicles carefully approached Chasiv Yar from the east, threading its way along dirt roads, skirting patches of forest, and avoiding Ukrainian-laid minefields while dodging incoming drones and artillery.

The April 4 assault on the Donetsk region city was repelled, according to Ukrainian commanders, open-source intelligence, and reports from soldiers on the ground. But more troublingly for Ukraine’s beleaguered frontline troops was what the grainy black-and-white drone video released by Ukraine’s 67th Separate Mechanized Brigade showed: a potential weakness in Ukraine’s defense, hastily built in some cases, and smarter tactics by Russian forces than earlier in the invasion.

Chasiv Yar is slowly being wiped from the map as Russian jets drop heavy, guided bombs that flatten apartment blocks and elite airborne assault units edge into the city’s eastern outskirts.

Ukrainian forces are exhausted, starved for artillery shells, desperate for reinforcements and rotations, struggling to hold back Russia’s offensive in several locations across the 1,200-kilometer front line. After the loss of the bigger city of Avdiyivka in February, Chasiv Yar is the next crucible, for Ukraine’s troops and for the West’s will to arm and support them.

“The battle for Chasiv Yar…is a litmus test for both sides,” according to Frontelligence Insight, a Ukrainian open-source research organization run by a Ukrainian reserve officer that analyzed the 64th Brigade drone video. “If Ukraine were to lose control of Chasiv Yar, it could have dire consequences as it would provide a direct route for the Russian Army to advance towards key cities in the Donbas, such as Kostyantynivka and Kramatorsk.”

Chasiv Yar “is one of the hottest spots on the front line,” said Oleksiy Melnyk, a retired Ukrainian Air Force officer and former pilot, as Russia moves closer to the goal of occupying the entirety of the two eastern Ukrainian regions that make up the Donbas: Donetsk and Luhansk.

“That’s why it’s where the most intensive fighting is nowadays, and I assume that in the next weeks, there will be even bigger-scale attempts to capture Chasiv Yar,” Melnyk, now a researcher at the Razumkov Center, a Kyiv think tank, told RFE/RL.

A Faltered Counteroffensive 

Last summer, Ukraine pinned its hopes for a decisive shift on the battlefield on a major counteroffensive, armed by Western weaponry and bolstered by nine newly formed, NATO-trained brigades.

The effort faltered by late fall, however. Ukrainian soldiers ran into а buzz saw of extensively prepared Russian defenses: trenches, tank traps, “dragon’s teeth,” and minefields, collectively known as Surovikin Lines, after the Russian general who ordered them. An ambitious effort to establish a bridgehead on the Dnieper’s eastern bank, break though Russia’s defenses in the south, and draw its troops away from other locations sputtered.

Russian commanders, meanwhile, redoubled their effort to capture Avdiyivka, an industrial city on the cusp of the regional administrative city of Donetsk. Despite heavy initial losses of tanks and armor, Russian forces utilized “meat grinder” assaults by prison-inmate infantry units, along with extensive use of glide bombs — air-dropped, high-explosive munitions outfitted with satellite guidance systems and pop-out wings — and captured the city on February 17.

The loss was a blow for Ukraine — and highlighted problems with its tactics, equipment, and strategy for personnel.

Experts criticized civilian and military leaders for not prioritizing the construction of defenses, like the Russians had.

Grumbling from Ukrainian commanders about the need for more soldiers grew louder. President Volodymyr Zelenskiy replaced the country’s commander in chief, General Valeriy Zaluzhniy, in early February, in part because of Zaluzhniy’s public comments that the government needed to find more soldiers.

After months of wrangling, Ukraine’s parliament this week passed legislationthat formalized a new system for mobilizing personnel, aiming to replenish the country’s exhausted forces.

Ukraine has disclosed little about the extent of its casualties since Russia launched its mass invasion in February 2022. This past February, Zelenskiy made his first official acknowledgment of the country’s combat losses, saying 31,000 troops had been killed in the previous two years. U.S. officials said last August that the total number of dead and wounded on both sides was roughly 500,000 — a figure that has climbed since.

Russia is estimated to have suffered as many as 350,000 dead and wounded, according to Western officials.

“I don’t remember a day when we did not have work at our triage unit,” Volodymyr, a senior lieutenant and medic with the 10th Separate Mountain Assault Brigade, deployed in the Donetsk region, said by telephone. He asked not to give his surname.

“The situation is more controlled than in 2022, but people are dying every day,” he said. “We lack the life-saving equipment to quickly and safely evacuate people from the front line, such as armored vehicles and unmanned platforms.”

Undermanned, Outgunned

Located on higher ground relative to surrounding areas, Chasiv Yar is seen as a key stepping stone to Kostyantynivka, a town to the south where a major rail line is located. Russian capture of that site would put pressure on two bigger cities to the north: Kramatorsk and Slovyansk.

It’s not just a lack of soldiers that Ukraine is struggling with. Commanders are grappling with a severe shortage of weaponry — everything from rifle ammunition to artillery shells. The shortages are overwhelmingly due to the inability of Ukraine’s largest supplier, the United States, to agree to fund and ship new tranches of weapons.

“Ammunition is our sore spot. We have constant shortages,” one Ukrainian soldier deployed near Avdiyivka who asked to be identified by his call sign, Odin, said in an interview with Current Time. “For example, last spring in this area, the situation with ammunition was much better. We probably fired six or seven times more rounds then. We are very dependent on the political situation, and very dependent on aid.”

Ukrainian troops report having to ration artillery shells, with Russian forces currently firing five times as many shells. U.S. Army General Chris Cavoli, the head of U.S. European Command, told lawmakers this week that that number would go up to 10-to-1 “in a matter of weeks.”

“We’re not talking about months. We’re not talking hypothetically,” he said.

Despite strong backing from the White House and both Democrats and most Republicans in Congress, a new $60 billion package of new weaponry has been bogged down by a small group of Republicans who are conditioning its passage on major reforms to U.S. immigration and border policies.

“There is never enough ammunition,” said Lieutenant Serhiy Skibchyk, a press officer from the 65th Separate Mechanized Brigade, deployed near Robotyne, in the southern Zaporizhzhya region. “If our allies continue to delay the supply of ammunition, we will have to choose between holding territory and [saving] the lives of our soldiers.”

Zelenskiy made another public appeal for U.S. elected officials to approve the aid package on April 7, arguing that a Ukrainian defeat would lead to threats, or outright attacks, on other European nations.

“It is necessary to specifically tell Congress that if Congress does not help Ukraine, Ukraine will lose the war,” he said during a meeting of an international fund-raising campaign called United24.

“If Ukraine loses the war, other states will be attacked,” he said.

‘Critical Juncture’

Ukrainian officials have also pleaded for anti-aircraft missiles, in particular those used in the U.S.-manufactured Patriot system, which are seen as effective against Russia’s hypersonic ballistic and cruise missiles. At least two systems have been deployed, limiting their ability to defend crucial targets; Zelenskiy has asked for 25 to be supplied.

“We are at a critical juncture on the ground that is beginning to be able to impact not only morale of the Ukrainians that are fighting, but also their ability to fight,” Representative Mike Turner, the Republican chairman of the House Intelligence Committee, told CBS News.“[Russian President Vladimir] Putin knows this. This is obviously an area where we cannot allow Putin to win. Our European allies are saying that Putin’s goal is a war beyond Ukraine with Europe. We need to stop him in Ukraine.”

Ukraine may get a small reprieve, in the form of artillery shipments spearheaded by the Czech Republic, which rallied a group of nations to purchase shells from other countries. The current head of Ukraine’s forces, Colonel General Oleksandr Syrskiy, said the country was also ramping up its ability to repair howitzers within Ukraine.

“The only advantage that Ukrainian forces have, which helps to mitigate this significant disproportion, is the quality of the Western weapons; not just guns, or artillery itself, but other systems that allow Ukraine to reach the same effect using less in number,” Melnyk, the former air force pilot, told RFE/RL.

Still, Ukrainian and Western officials warn that Russia may be gearing up for a new offensive in the coming months. Russian commanders have been able to continue recruiting men, relying on high wages and other lucrative compensation.

Last month, the commander of Ukraine’s ground forces said Russia was prepared to deploy up to 100,000 troops by the summer, and fears have mounted that Ukraine’s second-largest city, Kharkiv, could be a primary objective.

“It will not necessarily be an offensive; perhaps they will replenish their units that lost combat capability. But there is a possibility that at the beginning of the summer they may have certain forces to conduct offensive operations,” Lieutenant General Oleksandr Pavlyuk said on Ukrainian television.

Aleksander Palikot contributed to this report from Kyiv.

• Mike Eckel is a senior correspondent reporting on political and economic developments in Russia, Ukraine, and around the former Soviet Union, as well as news involving cybercrime and espionage. He’s reported on the ground on Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, the wars in Chechnya and Georgia, and the 2004 Beslan hostage crisis, as well as the annexation of Crimea in 2014.

RFE RL

RFE/RL journalists report the news in 21 countries where a free press is banned by the government or not fully established.