Scientists Warn Gulf Stream Slowdown Could Begin as Early as 2025

By Kurt Cobb - Apr 15, 2024, 

• India's heatwave criteria do not consider humidity, leading to an underestimation of heat danger.
• 
  
• Deadly wet-bulb temperatures, where perspiration does not evaporate, are occurring more frequently.
• 
  
• Potential slowdown or collapse of the Gulf Stream could plunge Northern Europe into a colder climate.

There were two pieces of recent news which highlight why what was once most often referred to as global warming is now called climate change. Yes, the globe is heating up. But effects vary depending on where you live for various reasons.

First, a report from India calls out problems with the criteria used by the India Meteorological Department (IMD) to issue a heatwave warning: The criteria do NOT consider humidity, only temperature. Anyone who lives in a hot climate or any climate that includes hot summer days knows that humidity can make a huge difference in whether one can stay cool in hot weather. It turns out that the IMD criteria fail to recognize that temperatures below what is considered a heatwave may be just as dangerous to human health when humidity is high and even be downright life-threatening. In short, India is already experiencing conditions that at times are at or near the limits of human suvivability.

The vast majority of humans—even with an unlimited supply of water—would likely die after a few hours in conditions that exceed 95 degrees in very high humidity, what is called wet-bulb temperatures because they represent a wet towel around the bulb of a thermometer.  This web-bulb temperature is supposed to mimic the way that humans cool themselves through perspiration. At very high humidity, it becomes hard to get perspiration on the skin to evaporate which is what allows for cooling of the body. It's why a handheld or electric fan helps cool the body because it speeds up evaporation.

Scientists have previously believed such extreme conditions currently occur very infrequently anywhere on Earth. Recent studies suggest that 40 years ago such extremes occurred once or twice a year somewhere on the planet. Now models suggest they are occurring 25 to 30 times per year. Without dramatic reductions in greenhouse gases, these extremes will become increasingly common. "Such conditions are unbearable without technology like air conditioning and make outdoor labor near impossible," according to the ScienceNews article linked above.

A second story this week warns temperatures might go in the opposite direction in one area of the globe as a direct result of the warming of the Greenland ice sheet, increased rainfall attributed to climate change, and dropping salinity in the tropical waters where the Gulf Stream arises.

The Gulf Stream, also known as the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC), moves heat from the tropics, along the U.S. coast, then across the Atlantic to the British Isles and turns back and north to Iceland and Greenland. There, having lost much of its heat, it turns downward into the Atlantic depths to between 6,000 to 9,000 feet and begins a journey back to the equator and along South America.

Just how much heat does the Gulf Stream move? Some 50 times the energy used by all of human civilization. This explains why Northern Europe—a branch of the AMOC flows toward Scandanavia as well—and Iceland are much warmer than their high latitudes would suggest. If the energy transfer were to slow dramatically or stop, it would almost certainly plunge these areas into a much colder climate regime, one for which they are not currently prepared.

The basic idea was illustrated in an exaggerated way in the film "The Day After Tomorrow". The speed of the transformation from moderate climate into frozen wasteland takes one week in the film. It should be concerning, however, that past collapses of the AMOC have taken place in a decade.

Scientists have been tracking the AMOC since 2004 and believe it is slowing. When researchers discovered in their calculations and modeling that the AMOC might start its next collapse as early as 2025, they couldn't believe it. They rechecked the results, and the conclusion was confirmed. Their model suggests that the current could begin collapsing anywhere from 2025 to 2095. (Some scientists pointed out the considerable uncertainties in the model, a legitimate criticism. My response: Shall those in the path of potential destruction simply wait and do nothing until the model can be better confirmed? If so, how long should they wait?)

The range cited above is not that wide even from a human perspective. And, it suggests once again that the catastrophic effects of climate change aren't merely going to be someone else's problem in the distant future. In the coming decades humans could be migrating away from catastrophes which either make life too hot to be bearable...or too cold—both due to climate change.

By Kurt Cobb by Resource Insight

 

Canada's Hydro-Heavy Decarbonization Strategy in Jeopardy

By Haley Zaremba - Apr 15, 2024

• Canada's hydropower production has decreased due to drought, prompting a shift towards fossil fuels and discouraging investment in new projects.
• 
  
• Climate change has intensified drought cycles in Canada, affecting energy security and return on investment in hydropower.
• 
  
• Quebec, once aspiring to become the "battery of the U.S. northeast," now faces challenges in meeting its own clean energy needs and fulfilling export contracts.
• 
  

Canada has spent a lot of time and money building itself up to be one of the biggest global producers of hydropower electricity. The country is second only to China in hydroelectricity production, and has planned to vastly expand its infrastructure to become a hydro superpower capable of supplying a good portion of its own energy needs through hydroelectricity as well as export clean energy and offer considerable energy storage capacity to the Northeastern United States. But those plans have turned out to have some considerable insecurities as recent drought conditions have decreased hydropower output across the country, leaving Canadian provinces scrambling to diversify their energy portfolios. 

Canada is not alone. Worldwide hydropower generation experienced a record decline in production levels in 2023. This marks a worrying turnaround for a sector that was quite recently one of the most – if not the most – reliable forms of renewable energy production. In 2021, the global hydropower sector was solely responsible for 16% of the world’s electricity generation. That’s more than every other form of renewable energy combined. But a record-bad summer in 2022, characterized by heat waves and punishing drought, caused an unprecedented and unforeseen drop in that output. 

One of the results of that decline is that countries around the world ramped up consumption of fossil fuels to fill the gap. Due to unusually high natural gas prices over the same period, much of that consumption was represented by coal, the dirtiest fossil fuel. Another critical result of hydropower's historic slump is that investors are shying away from new projects. As a result, hydrogen production and especially the addition of new hydro projects have been in decline since 2020. 

All of this indicates that Canada will likely have to perform a massive pivot in its hydro-heavy decarbonization strategy. According to data from the Government of Canada collected at the end of January, about 70% of the country was abnormally dry or in moderate to exceptional drought. Drought is not unprecedented in Canada, and is generally part of climate cycles in the region. But while drought cycles used to be pretty predictable, that’s no longer the case as climate change intensifies. And unpredictable drought does not bode well for energy security or return on investment in a hydro-heavy energy sector.

“Canada has historically been seen as a hydroelectricity superpower, but this narrative has shifted,” John Pomeroy, a director at the University of Saskatchewan’s Centre for Hydrology, which studies water flows and climate change, was recently quoted by the Wall Street Journal. “In parts of the country, conditions are truly disastrous.”

This represents a huge loss of current and future export revenues for Canada, which already has long-term contracts with the states of Massachusetts and New York to provide roughly 20 terawatt hours of power. Those contracts were only supposed to be the beginning of a long and lucrative trade relationship with the United States. The northeastern U.S. presents a huge market with considerable and increasing demand for clean energy as well as energy storage options. Quebec had hoped to leverage its hydropower capacity to become the “battery of the U.S. northeast”. Now that’s looking increasingly unlikely.

However, some experts say that with or without the drought conditions, Canada has never had enough hydropower production capacity to support its own clean energy ambitions as well as those of the northeastern United States. “Many people in New England have lived with a myth that Quebec has so much power that it doesn’t know what to do with it all,” a group of legislators from Maine said in a joint statement last year. But the reality is that Quebec no longer has enough hydropower to meet its own current and future clean energy needs, much less those of its neighbors to the south. Over the next decade, the province plans to invest over $80 billion in a diverse array of sustainable power sources and infrastructure to expand its grid while staying on track to fulfill its promise of becoming net-zero by 2050. 

By Haley Zaremba for Oilprice.com 

 

Growing Coal Dependency Puts Central Asian Economies at Risk

By Eurasianet - Apr 15, 2024

• Central Asian states have doubled their coal-based power generation capacity over the past decade, with plans for further expansion.
• 
  
• The continued reliance on coal exacerbates environmental challenges and strains state budgets in the long term.
• 
  
• Despite some efforts towards renewable energy, Central Asian nations are prioritizing coal, undermining their climate commitments and increasing the risk of stranded assets.
• 
  

Global warming is causing temperatures to rise at a faster pace in Central Asia than in other parts of the world. Yet a report issued by a watchdog group shows that Central Asian states are compounding their environmental challenges by doubling down on the use of coal-fired power plants, a primary source of greenhouse gas emissions that fuel warming.

The annual report by Global Energy Monitor (GEM), titled Boom and Bust Coal 2024: Tracking the Global Coal Plant Pipeline, showed that coal’s role in power generation has doubled in Central Asia over the past decade. Plans to add generating capacity of coal-fired plants in Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Uzbekistan and Tajikistan reached 8.1 gigawatts (GW) last year, up from 3.9 GW in 2013, according to GEM data. Coal currently accounts for 45 percent of electricity production in the region. Turkmenistan’s power production relies on natural gas, and thus its production wasn’t included as part of the GEM coal report.

Kazakhstan and Kyrgyzstan are among only eight states globally that developed plans in 2023 to build new coal-fired plants. The report also notes that no Central Asian state has a plan to phase out coal-fired power production; most also don’t have a blueprint to achieve carbon neutrality in accordance with the 2015 Paris Agreement.

“Central Asia plans to balloon its new coal power generation while most other regions are plateauing or decreasing proposals. Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, and Uzbekistan are trending in the wrong direction,” the GEM report states. 

The report also makes the argument that the region’s continuing embrace of coal-fired power production  may solve short-term problems but will ultimately add long-term stress to state budgets. “These future coal-fired power stations would pose stranded asset risks and unnecessary socioeconomic and environmental costs,” it says.

Over 60 percent of the 16.8 GW electricity generated by burning coal in Central Asia was produced by outdated plants in 2023, the GEM report states. The efficient operating lifetime for a coal plant is generally accepted to be 40 years. Continued operation of plants beyond the 40-year timeframe poses “serious risks” for excessive pollution and breakdown, according to GEM. Risks are heightened for outdated combined plants that generate heat and electricity, given the greater chances of a breakdown during a winter cold snap.

“Betting on new coal capacity is a risky strategy for Central Asia. These countries should prioritize renewable energy, energy storage, smart grids, and transmission infrastructure,” Flora Champenois, GEM’s Coal Program Director, said in a written statement provided to Eurasianet.

Kazakhstan is the Central Asia leader in trying to go green, yet it is also the region’s worst coal offender. President Kassym-Jomart Tokayev in early 2023 approved a strategy for Kazakhstan to achieve carbon neutrality by 2060 concerning greenhouse gas emissions.  In late 2023, Kazakhstan also joined the Global Methane Pledge. Methane emissions as part of fuel extraction is another source of global warming. The same year, however, Kazakhstan announced plans to add 4.6 GW of coal-fired power generating capacity, which the GEM report notes is the third-most proposed generating capacity added in 2023, behind China and India. 

The two largest, new projects are in Ekibastuz, a city in the northern Pavlodar Region not far from the Russian border: one involves the expansion of the Ekibastuz-2 power station; the other is the construction of a new facility, Ekibastuz-3. No existing coal plant in Kazakhstan has an officially confirmed retirement date.

The report asserts “Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, and Uzbekistan are going down the same path as Kazakhstan, though at a smaller scale.” Kyrgyzstan, for example, signed a deal with Russian firms to build a new coal plant in the Jalal-Abad Region capable of generating 0.7 GW per year. Meanwhile, Uzbekistan has plans to add two units to the existing Angren power station. Concurrently, coal production is rising in Central Asia, underscored by plans by the Bogatyr Coal Mine in Kazakhstan, Central Asia’s largest coal source, to increase production in 2024 by 25 percent.

“For Kazakhstan and Kyrgyzstan, which have existing climate commitments, following through with the proposed coal proposals will make meeting these commitments more difficult and expensive,” the report says. “The same would be true for the other Central Asian countries should they make coal phaseout or carbon neutrality goals in the future.”

Overall, the GEM report showed that the G7 group of major industrial countries accounted for 15 percent (310 GW) of the coal-fired generating capacity in 2023, down from 23 percent (443 GW) in 2015. The report also cited China as world’s worst abuser of coal. Global coal-fired power production grew by 48.4 GW, or 2 percent, in 2023, for an overall total of 2,130 GW. China was responsible for two-thirds of the additions.

By Eurasianet.org

China state planner finalizes rule to set up coal production reserve system

Reuters | April 11, 2024 

Mao Zedong statue.(Image courtesy of 猫猫的日记本 |Wikimedia Commons.)

China’s state planner on Friday finalized a rule to set up a domestic coal production reserve system by 2027, aimed at stabilizing thermal coal prices and supplies to power plants.


The rule, which was first issued in draft form by the National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC) in December, called for 300 million metric tons of “dispatchable” annual coal production by 2030, equivalent to about 6% of last year’s output.

China set a goal in 2021 to have coal reserves equivalent to 15% of annual output stocked at mines, ports, power plants and other designated storage areas.

The new system will build on that measure by ensuring that a certain amount of production capacity is ready to be mined when needed.

It will focus on mines that produce coal for electricity and heat generation – prices of which are closely monitored by authorities because of their connection to power prices and local livelihoods – rather than coking coal, which is used to make steel.

Coal mines that are part of the capacity reserve system must be able to dispatch output when authorities deem prices to have exceeded a “reasonable” range or when supplies are tight. These mines would also no longer be subject to local government requirements to sign medium- and long-term contracts with buyers.

Large scale, modern mines with good safety conditions in China’s top coal-producing regions of Shanxi, Inner Mongolia, Shaanxi and Xinjiang would be prioritised for inclusion into the coal reserve plan, according to the NDRC notice.

China is the world’s top coal consumer and producer, mining a record 4.66 billion tons last year. But the country has been concerned about energy security since a crippling domestic coal and power shortage in 2021 that prompted a probe into soaring coal prices.

Coal output is expected to stabilize this year as China ramps up renewable power and is likely to notch just 1% production growth, according to an industry group forecast.

(By Colleen Howe; Editing by Christopher Cushing and Jamie Freed)

Read More: Global coal power grew 2% last year, the most since 2016, survey says

Metals whipsawed as sanctions on new Russian supplies rattle LME

RENAME IT THE LENINGRAD METALS EXCHANGE

Bloomberg News | April 15, 2024 | 

Credit: LME

Metals swung sharply, with aluminum surging by a record before later erasing most of its gains, as traders digest US and UK sanctions that banned delivery of new Russian supplies onto the London Metal Exchange.


The curbs on aluminum, nickel and copper announced late Friday don’t prevent Russia from selling its metals to buyers outside the US or UK, and don’t restrict the vast majority of the global trade in metals — which takes place directly between miners, traders and manufacturers rather than through the exchange.


But the sanctions will still reverberate through metals markets because of the LME’s central position at the heart of the industry. Its prices are used as a benchmark and referenced in a huge number of contracts around the world, and many buyers view the ability to deliver on the LME as essential.

“While the new restrictions do not stop the trade of Russian metal, we could see some temporary upside support for prices of copper, aluminium and nickel,” Amy Gower, metals strategist at Morgan Stanley, said in an emailed note. That will be particularly true “if the ban on delivery into LME and CME warehouses makes traders and users less willing to handle Russian material and disrupts broader trade flows.”

Aluminum jumped as much as 9.4% as the market opened, the most since the current form of the contract was launched in 1987, while nickel rose as much as 8.8%. However, both metals were only up by around 2% as trading got under way in Europe, and copper was little changed. On the Shanghai Futures Exchange — where some brands of Russian metal can still be delivered — aluminum closed marginally lower, while nickel was up 0.7%.

Russia is an important metals producer, accounting for 6% of global nickel supply, 5% of aluminum and 4% of copper. The sanctions are aimed at curbing President Vladimir Putin’s ability to fund his war machine by choking off Russian producers’ access to western exchanges, while still allowing metal to flow to manufacturers in allied nations that depend on them.

The restrictions bar new Russian supplies of all three metals to the LME as well as to the Chicago Mercantile Exchange, while allowing delivery of metal produced prior to April 13.

The immediate price action was fueled by “worries that the sanctions will reduce Russian flows to Western markets,” said Jia Zheng, head of trading and research at Shanghai Dongwu Jiuying Investment Management Co. “Any stimulation will be amplified amid an existing bullish backdrop.”

Metals traders are hardened to wild market swings after a period marked by a nickel short squeeze that almost destroyed the LME in March 2022, and sanctions on Rusal that caused havoc in 2018. However, many traders and executives interviewed by Bloomberg since Friday have argued that new restrictions are ultimately unlikely to have as dramatic an impact as those two events.

Russia’s two metal giants, Rusal and MMC Norilsk Nickel PJSC, are much less entangled in the western financial system than they were before the war, and the industry has spent the past two years preparing for the prospect of sanctions.

Read More: New metals sanctions push Russia further into China’s embrace

But the measures look set to cement China’s status as Moscow’s buyer of last resort, potentially leaving Russian supplies trading at deepening discounts to benchmark LME prices.

Both companies have already been selling increasing volumes to China as many western buyers backed away, and aluminum giant United Co. Rusal International PJSC said on Monday that the measures will have no impact on its ability to supply customers.

The LME’s approach is effectively just enforcing the restrictions imposed by the US and UK on Friday. It said on Saturday that “old” Russian metal can continue to be delivered, though the exchange said it would require evidence that the metal was not in breach of sanctions and would approve deliveries on a case-by-case basis.

The decision is likely to reignite a debate over whether Russian metal should be banned altogether to protect the exchange’s role as the home of global benchmark prices.

By continuing to allow Russian supplies, the LME left open the possibility of a short-term surge in deliveries of that “old” Russian metal into its warehouses, which in turn could create further pricing dislocations.

Russia already accounted for 91% of LME aluminum stockpiles at the end of March, 62% of copper and 36% of nickel. In its notice on Saturday, the LME acknowledged the possibility that the uncertainty caused by the sanctions means “a relatively large supply” of Russian metal could flood onto the exchange.

Estimates of the amount of Russian aluminum being held outside of the LME system range from a couple of hundred thousand tons to as much as one million tons.

Aluminum was up 2% at $2,544.50 a ton by 11:34 a.m. London time, while nickel was 1.7% higher.

Column: Falling stocks and more supply trouble sends tin skywards

Reuters | April 12, 2024 

Stock image.

The London Metal Exchange (LME) tin price has surged to near two-year highs this week as exchange inventory slides and yet another threat to an already stressed supply chain emerges.


LME three-month metal hit $33,130 per metric ton on Wednesday, a level last traded in June 2022. Currently trading at $32,000, tin is now up by 27% since the start of the year. Copper, the second-best performer among the LME base metals suite, is up by a comparatively modest 10% since the start of January.

Speculative buying has played its part in the sharp rally, with fund positioning as bullish as it’s been since March 2022, when the price was on a super-charged run to above $50,000 per ton.

Tin is clearly back in the spotlight as investors buy into the market’s bull narrative of resurgent demand and challenged supply.

Already facing disruption in Indonesia, the world’s largest exporter of metal, and Myanmar, home to the world’s largest mine, tin is now facing a third threat in the form of escalating violence in the tin-rich province of North Kivu in the Democratic Republic of Congo.

LME three-month tin, cash-3s spread and stocks

New threat

Kivu has long been a hub of artisanal mining for the so-called “3Ts”, namely tin, tantalum and tungsten.

It is also home to the Bisie tin mine, which was once artisanal but is now mechanized and operated by Alphamin Resources. Bisie produced 12,600 tons of tin in concentrate last year, accounting for around 4.5% of global supply.

Material mined from both Bisie and artisanal sources flows across the Goma border crossing with Rwanda, a part of the country that has fallen under the control of the M23 rebel group.

The increasingly violent confrontation with government forces has displaced an estimated 800,000 people and key access roads to Goma are now under rebel control.

The International Tin Association (ITA), which has been monitoring the fast-deteriorating situation in North Kivu, notes that while there is no evidence yet of tin exports being halted, “delays may be expected as mineral shipments are rerouted further north and south away from rebel-controlled areas.”

It’s the last thing Asian smelters need right now, given the continued uncertainty around the status of the Man Maw mine in Myanmar.

The mine is controlled by the semi-autonomous Wa State, which ordered the suspension of mining activities last August. Surface stocks have continued to be shipped across the border, but Chinese smelters have been lifting imports from other countries to compensate, including the Congo.

Metal squeeze

At least one tin supply disruption is abating as Indonesian authorities catch up on delays to the annual export licensing process.

Two of the country’s largest producers, including PT Timah, have now restarted exports, according to the ITA.

However, the sharp drop in Indonesian shipments to just 55 tons over the first two months of this year is already tightening the Western market.

LME headline tin stocks have slumped by 46% to 4,145 tons since the start of the year and are now the lowest since last July. Excluding metal earmarked for physical load-out, available stocks are just 3,650 tons.

The stocks squeeze has rippled through LME short-dated time-spreads. In the space of three weeks, the benchmark cash-to-three-months period has shifted from a contango of more than $200 per ton to a backwardation of $84 as of Wednesday’s close.

LME tin and Philadelphia SE Semiconductor Index

Demand recovery

The draw on LME stocks also attests to a demand recovery in the electronics sector, where tin is used in circuit-board soldering.

The sector, accounting for about half of all global tin usage, saw falling sales last year as a cost of living squeeze in many Western countries suppressed demand for new purchases of electronic goods.

However, semiconductor sales, another useful indicator of electronic goods demand, seem to have troughed around the middle of last year and have been recovering ever since. Global sales in February were up 16% on last year, according to the most recent figures from the Semiconductor Industry Association.

It’s noticeable that the tin price has been closely tracking the Philadelphia Stock Exchange Semiconductor Index, which has surged by 52% from its January low.

But the two have diverged over the last few days, suggesting that tin is now trading on its own momentum as much as its fundamentals.

Investment fund positioning on LME tin

Funds rush to buy

Fund money has surged into the London tin market and positioning is now as bullish as it was during the mega rally of 2021 and early 2022.

Investment funds have lifted long positions to 3,134 contracts, which is the highest level since the LME started publishing its Commitments of Traders Report in 2018.

The position is equivalent to 15,670 metric tons, which doesn’t sound like much until you consider the level of LME inventory.

Funds are net long of the tin contract to the tune of 2,371 contracts, which is just short of the March 2022 peak. That’s down to the fact there are still shorts in the London market, whereas there were almost none when the price was rocketing up to $50,000.

It’s worth noting that positioning in the LME’s “Other Financial” category, which captures index and insurance entities, flipped to net long in January with the position now at 328 contracts, the most bullish it’s been since the start of 2022.

Tin is a relatively small LME contract and the scale of speculative inflows injects extra unpredictability into an already volatile market.

That underlying volatility is only going to get worse as the number of potential supply threats multiplies.

(The opinions expressed here are those of the author, Andy Home, a columnist for Reuters.)

(Editing by Paul Simao)

Horizonte Minerals fails to secure financing, considering mine sale

Staff Writer | April 15, 2024

Araguaia nickel mine, Brazil. Image from Horizonte Minerals.

Shares of Glencore-backed Horizonte Minerals (AIM, TSX: HZM) plunged on Monday after the company announced it has failed to secure additional financing needed to complete the construction of its Araguaia nickel project in Brazil.


The company stated in a press release that it is now exploring options such as a sale, liquidation or raising financing at the subsidiary level, following an 87% increase in the estimated cost to build the mine to more than $1 billion.

“Horizonte Minerals does not believe that any of these options are likely to recover any value for the company’s shareholders,” the company said in a statement.

Shares of Horizonte Minerals plummeted by 89% by 10:10 p.m. EDT. The UK-based nickel developer now has a market capitalization of $8 million, compared to $241 million last October.

The company began construction of the mine in May 2022, with the aim of producing up to 29,000 tonnes of nickel a year for the stainless steel market.

As of April 10, 2024, Horizonte Minerals had a cash balance of $16.2 million, excluding cash segregated for the development of the Vermelho nickel-cobalt project.

“Despite the strong long-term outlook for nickel, investor sentiment has been dampened by low spot prices and near-term uncertainties, including the supply surplus from Indonesia,” Horizonte said.

As reported by the Financial Times, Jim Lennon, a veteran nickel market analyst at Macquarie, said at a recent seminar that he could see less than 100,000 tonnes of nickel from new projects outside of Indonesia entering the market in the next three to four years.

This compares with 3.5 million tonnes of annual supply expected this year, according to Macquarie.

Global mining investment too low to support energy transition, Rio Tinto chairman says

Reuters | April 15, 2024 

Dominic Barton speaks to a Vancouver audience. Image: Vancouver Board of Trade

Low rates of investment in the global mining sector have put the global energy transition at risk, widening the supply gap in critical minerals like copper, Rio Tinto chairman Dominic Barton said on Monday.


“The gap is humungous, and I am actually very worried about whether we will be able to close (it),” Barton said via video link at the Ecosperity conference in Singapore.

The global effort to slash climate-warming carbon dioxide emissions will depend on securing large supplies of minerals like copper, lithium and cobalt required to build electric vehicles, solar plants and wind farms.

The amount of metals required for each kilowatt of generation capacity has risen by 50% since 2010, and electric cars require six times more minerals than traditional combustion engine, according to the International Energy Agency.

Barton said the world isn’t just facing a shortage of minerals, but also a shortage of the capital required to dig new mines, which take far longer to develop than before.

“The mining industry has reduced its investments significantly since the 2015-2016 period … We’re hundreds of billions of dollars below what we need.”

He said the industry needed to build trust, and had not done a great job in persuading the public of the vital role it will play in a global decarbonization project that could require more copper in the next 25 years than has ever before been produced.

He said the industry needed to do a better public relations job, adding that Rio itself had “caused our own problems” in 2020 after destroying rock shelters considered sacred by Aboriginal communities, a move Barton described as “terrible” and “embarrassing”.

Scott Clements, a partner at Tribeca Capital, said there were still enormous opportunities in the mining sector that could “generate phenomenal returns”.

“The challenge for the industry is to be seen as part of the solution and not part of the problem,” he told the conference on Monday.

(By David Stanway; Editing by Michael Perry)

Tesla supplier Piedmont Lithium gets key North Carolina mining permit

Reuters | April 15, 2024 | 

Piedmont Lithium plans to start construction of its proposed plant in Tennessee next year. Credit: Piedmont Lithium

North Carolina regulators have approved a state mining permit for Tesla supplier Piedmont Lithium to develop one of the largest US sources of the key electric vehicle battery metal, although key financing and local regulatory challenges remain.


The approval from the North Carolina Department of Environmental Quality, which was announced by the company on Monday and is conditional on the posting of a $1 million reclamation bond, removes a major hurdle to Piedmont’s plans to tap a large lithium deposit just outside Charlotte.


Shares in the company, which first applied for the permit in August 2021, rose 33% in morning trading. The state in 2022 had turned down an application from an unrelated company to expand a quarry.

The go-ahead for the 500-foot-deep mine comes despite widespread opposition from neighbors worried about water, noise pollution and other potential problems.

The years-long opposition to the project, which would become one of the few lithium-producing sites in the US, illustrates broadening tension in the country, as resistance to living near a mine clashes with the potential of EVs to mitigate climate change.

Piedmont must still obtain a local zoning variance and financing for the project, estimated to cost more than $1 billion. The company has applied for US Department of Energy loans via a program through which rivals ioneer and Lithium Americas have already obtained financing.

“We plan to develop Carolina Lithium as one of the lowest-cost, most sustainable lithium hydroxide operations in the world,” said Piedmont CEO Keith Phillips.

Piedmont agreed to a deal with Tesla last year to supply spodumene concentrate, a key raw material for making batteries, to the auto giant through 2025, with an option to renew it for another three years.
Changes to design

The state review process involved the submission of thousands of pages of documents, multiple requests for additional information, and at least three deadline extensions for Piedmont.

State officials are also requiring the company to conduct regular water quality and water table levels tests, and to line a waste storage pit with a synthetic liner, a departure from the typical requirement for an earthen liner.

State officials had expressed “many concerns” about Piedmont’s plans to discharge chemicals into the public sewer system, according to regulatory filings.

Piedmont, which also is working on lithium projects in Tennessee, Ghana and Quebec, must still obtain state air quality and wastewater permits, both of which are routine for mining projects in the state.

Importantly though, Piedmont must also receive a zoning variance from officials in Gaston County, where the project has been opposed by some county commissioners. The company has not yet applied for the variance.

Phillips on Sunday called Chad Brown, chair of the county board of commissioners, to discuss the state’s decision and ask for a meeting. Brown said he was open to meeting with Piedmont, but that the board would not consider the zoning variance until July at the earliest due to the county’s annual budget review process.

“We will not rush into anything. We’ll listen to Piedmont, and we’ll see what happens,” Brown told Reuters. “This mine would have a big economic impact on the county, but it also could have tremendous environmental impacts.”

Despite spending years buying acreage, hiring investment bankers and inking a supply deal with Tesla, Piedmont did not approach county commissioners until July 2021 with its plans.

The company also did not apply for a state mining permit until the following month. Those strategic missteps have fueled mistrust across the county of roughly 220,000. Brown said he has not spoken to Phillips since that 2021 meeting.

Low lithium pricesmay also hobble Piedmont’s financing attempts, analysts said.

“Finding external capital for a new lithium project could prove difficult at current lithium prices, though it will help that Carolina Lithium is very low on the cost curve,” said brokerage TD Cowen on Monday.

Meanwhile Albemarle, the world’s biggest lithium miner, is hiring staff and buying land in a neighboring North Carolina county amid plans to re-open a mothballed spodumene lithium mine that would compete directly with Piedmont.

(By Ernest Scheyder and Sourasis Bose; Editing by Anil D’Silva, Tasim Zahid, Jan Harvey and Marguerita Choy)

Chile indigenous communities suspend dialogue with SQM, Codelco over lithium mining

Reuters | April 15, 2024 | 

SQM lithium mining operations in Chile’s north. (Image: Google Earth.)

The four largest indigenous communities in Chile’s Atacama salt flat suspended dialogue with state-run copper giant Codelco and lithium miner SQM over expanding lithium mining in the flat, the groups said in a statement on Monday.


Codelco and SQM agreed to start talks with a council of representatives from 18 indigenous communities in December as part of Codelco’s efforts to reach an agreement with SQM to form a new state-controlled public-private partnership.

“Despite our communities’ efforts, the facts have shown that among the actors involved there is not a true willingness to sustain a dialogue,” representatives from the Toconao, Camar, Socaire and Peine communities said in a statement dated April 14 but released on Monday.

The statement added that the other indigenous communities taking part in the dialogue with the companies do not “recognize the distinct realities” of the process.

The indigenous council, SQM and Codelco did not immediately reply to requests for comment.

The indigenous groups’ announcement comes almost a year after Chilean President Gabriel Boric tasked Codelco, the world’s largest copper producer, to lead efforts to increase state control over strategic lithium projects as demand grows for the white metal, a key component in electric car batteries.

(Reporting by Alexander Villegas; Writing by Brendan O’Boyle; Editing by Anthony Esposito)

Barrick under pressure in Mali as regime eyes control of Loulo-Gounkoto

MINING.COM Staff Writer | April 15, 2024 |

Loulo Gounkoto underground. Image from Barrick.

Barrick Gold (TSX: ABX; NYSE: GOLD) is under increasing pressure in Mali as the country’s military regime seeks to tighten its grip on the lucrative mining sector, The Globe and Mail reported.


After seizing power in a coup in 2021 and forming an alliance with Russian mercenary Wagner Group, the Mali junta has been focusing on the mining industry. They conducted an industry audit and introduced a new mining code aimed at expanding state control over mining companies.

Recent reports suggest that the regime may be planning to seize control of Barrick’s key mining complex, Loulo-Gounkoto, one of the world’s largest gold-producing mines. Barrick has declined to comment.

According to the Africa Defense Forum, published by the Africa Command of the U.S. military, Barrick’s gold mining complex in Mali is now “in Russia’s crosshairs.”

In January, Russian soldiers reportedly seized control of the Intahaka gold mine, the largest artisanal mine site in northern Mali, remaining for a brief period.

As reported by The African Report, this was not the first time that men from the Wagner Group had taken control of artisanal gold mining sites in Mali.

By early 2023, they had discreetly taken over at least three mines south of Bamako: Balandougou, located approximately 20km from the border with Guinea; Koyoko, another nearby gold panning site in the Kangaba Cercle; and a third site near Yanfolila. Similar to Intahaka, they only stayed for a short time before moving on.

Regarding Barrick, The African Report has also heard from several Malian sources close to the matter that major negotiations aimed at removing Barrick Gold from the management of the Loulo and Gounkoto sites are underway in Bamako.

Barrick executives told the publication that they are not concerned about the operating licenses.

“They are based on the 1991 mining code and not on the new one,” said a local Barrick Gold manager.

“The authorities can’t do as they please and change a contract at their whim.”

Barrick CEO Mark Bristow has visited Mali twice since late January, emphasizing the contributions made by Barrick’s mines to Mali’s economy. These contributions include nearly $10 billion in taxes, royalties, salaries, and payments to local suppliers, constituting 5% to 10% of the country’s GDP, the company said.

According to the miner, just over the past 12 months, the complex has contributed more than $1 billion to the Malian economy.

The Loulo-Gounkoto complex currently holds proven and probable gold reserves estimated at 6.7 million ounces, with measured and indicated gold resources totaling 9.1 million ounces. It produced 683,000 ounces of gold in 2023 and is on track to meet its production guidance for the current quarter and the year.