Thursday, April 18, 2024

Humans Sheltered in This Lava Tube for Thousands of Years

Isaac Schultz
GIZMONDO
Wed, April 17, 2024 

The mouth of the Umm Jirsan lava tube. - Photo: Green Arabia Project


Three needs are famously fundamental to survival: food, water, and shelter. According to new research, ancient humans had at least two of those three needs met by a nearly mile-long lava tube about 77 miles (125 kilometers) north of Medina, Saudi Arabia, for at least 7,000 years.

The lava tube in question is named Umm Jirsan, the longest of the lava tubes in Saudi Arabia’s volcanic field, Harrat Khaybar. Today, wolves, foxes, and snakes inhabit the cave, but it was once a popular spot forhuman pastoralists and their domesticated animals. The new study, published today in the journal PLoS One, examined faunal remains and rock art in the region and adds to a growing body of research into the system.

“The findings at Umm Jirsan provide a new type of archaeological site in the region, and one where organic material like bone and deeply layered sediments are much better preserved,” said Mathew Stewart, a zooarchaeologist at Griffith University in Australia and the study’s lead author, in an email to Gizmodo. “We had no expectations to find archaeology at Umm Jirsan. In fact, we were mostly interested in seeing the large caches of bones that had been previously reported.”


Indeed, a team that included Stewart found evidence in 2021 that striped hyenas were creating bone caches in the back of the cave. There are hundreds of thousands of bones in Umm Jirsan, the team found, belonging to at least 40 species and dating from the Neolithic to as recently as the Victorian Era.

Though the oldest dated faunal remains in the cave are about 7,000 years old, Stewart told Gizmodo that animals have likely used the lava tubes since they formed, millions of years ago. Seven of the lava flows in Harrat Khaybar are less than 1,500 years old, according to the Smithsonian Institution’s Global Volcanism Program, and the region still has the potential for activity, according to a 2022 study.


The interior of the lava tube. - Photo: Green Arabia Project

In their new paper, the researchers reported evidence for human occupation of the lava tube between the Neolithic and the Bronze Age—in other words, humans made use of the tube for millennia. Isotopic analysis of the human remains in the cave revealed an increase of foods in their diet that had high levels of a certain isotope of carbon associated with oasis agriculture.

But the team concluded that Umm Jirsan was probably not permanently occupied. Rather, they think it was a convenient spot for herders to stop and provide their flocks with shade and water. Based on human use of the surrounding area—evinced by nearby rock art and other faunal records—the team posited that the lava tube “was situated along a pastoral route linking key oases.” So you can think of Umm Jirsan more as an ancient truck stop than a place of residence.

The rock art described by the team was found at a nearby collapsed lava tube northeast of Umm Jirsan. The researchers reported 16 rock art panels depicting cattle, sheep, goats, and possibly ibexes.

Even though humans didn’t have a permanent presence in the lava tube, the natural structure provided shelter for people and their herds for thousands of years. In the harsh desert environment, the promise of a break from the sun, wind, and heat would’ve made Umm Jirsan a perfect prehistoric pit stop.

Humans were living in a lava tube 7,000 years ago on the Arabian Peninsula

Owen Jarus
LIVE SCIENCE
Wed, April 17, 202

A large cave-like lava tube that is dark and underground. We see a researcher with a light in the corner

Archaeologists in Saudi Arabia have discovered that humans were living in a lava tube at least 7,000 years ago and possibly earlier, a new study finds.

The lava tube, called Umm Jirsan, is located in a volcanic field called Harrat Khaybar, approximately 78 miles (125 kilometers) north of Medina, researchers said in a statement.

"Umm Jirsan is currently the longest reported lava tube in Arabia in terms of the horizontal length of passages, at 1481 metres [4,859 feet]," the scientists wrote in the paper published Wednesday (April 17) in the journal PLOS One.

Although ancient humans are known to have lived on the Arabian Peninsula during prehistoric times, organic remains are scant due to poor preservation in the arid region. So the researchers looked for areas that would have preserved artifacts because they were sheltered from the sun, wind and wild temperature changes over the past millennia. Umm Jirsan met these criteria, so the team decided to look there.

Their hunch turned out to be good. They found artifacts such as fragments of cloth and worked wood; rock art of domesticated animals; and the skeletal remains of nine human bones. These finds suggest that people occupied the lava tuba for at least the past 7,000 years and possibly as far back as 10,000 years, according to radiocarbon dating and optically stimulated luminescence dating, which examines when the last time certain minerals were exposed to heat or sunlight. Some of the dates are relatively recent and the tube appears to have been used into modern times, Stewart said.

The humans who used the lava tube left a few clues about their lives. These include bones of domesticated sheep and goats, as well as rock art depicting these animals, suggesting that these creatures were key to the humans' survival. A chemical analysis of the human remains showed an increase in certain plants, like cereals and fruits, over time — possibly because of a rise in oasis agriculture in the Bronze Age, the team said in the statement.

The analysis suggested that humans weren't living in the lava tube for long periods at a time, however. "The lava tube does not appear to have served as a permanent habitation location, but rather as a site that likely lay on herding routes and that allowed access to shade and water for passing herders and their animals," the authors wrote in the study. "Prior to this, as well as during pastoral periods, the lava tube was likely also linked with hunting activities, which probably remained a cornerstone of local economies into the Bronze Age."

Lava tubes form when lava creates underground passages that can transport large quantities of molten rock; when the lava supply ends or if the lava is diverted elsewhere, the empty tube is left behind, according to the National Park Service. And while they may sound inhospitable, they can be a good source of shelter. For instance, scientists at JAXA, Japan's space agency, have suggested that future humans could live in lava tubes on the moon.

Study co-author Mathew Stewart, a research fellow at the Australian Research Centre for Human Evolution at Griffith University in Australia, said lava tubes like this one continue to be used by modern-day people in the region "whether it be for corralling animals, accessing water resources, or simply for leisure," Stewart told Live Science in an email.

Related: 4,000-year-old wall found around oasis in Saudi Arabia likely defended 'against raids from nomads'


We see 8 square images. The top four are of rock art of sheep, goats, people, long-horned cattle and an ibex. The bottom four are digital enhancements of the top four.

It's difficult to say when Umm Jirsan was last filled with lava, Stewart said, although volcanic activity has occurred intermittently in the region. "There have been some 1500 volcanic eruptions in Arabia over the past 1500 years, and many more in antiquity," Stewart said.

Scholars not involved with the research spoke positively of the team's work. It is "wonderful work by this team that has made a strong reputation for excellent fieldwork and interpretation," Gary Rollefson, a professor emeritus of anthropology at Whitman College and San Diego State University, told Live Science in an email. "Although the excavation produced relatively little in the way of artifacts and faunal remains, the material nevertheless reveals strong connections of material recovered in other parts of northern Saudi Arabia," Rollefson said, noting that there are similarities with material excavated in parts of Jordan.

Anthony Sinclair, a professor of archaeological theory and method at the University of Liverpool in the U.K., said in an email that in addition to providing shelter, the lava tube also would have been a "defendable position — in terms of allowing the pastoralists to safeguard their flocks at night against local predators. There would have been wolves, hyena and quite possibly lion and leopard across Arabia." Today, some of these animals are endangered or no longer present in Arabia.
FRACKING BY ANY OTHER NAME...
US Geothermal Sector Gears Up for Commercial Liftoff

Velda Addison
Wed, Apr 17, 2024

What’s green, present just about everywhere —but has a small footprint and must be scaled with existing technology– a built-in workforce and an attractive value proposition?

 The Earth’s crust.

More specifically, it’s geothermal energy—and the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) says the nation is positioned to produce up to 5 gigawatts (GW) of the clean energy power source across a handful of states. But it will take between $20 billion and $25 billion in investment to get reached that power threshold by 2030. To produce an additional 90 GW to 130 GW across more states by 2050 could require up to another $250 billion.

DOE experts say it’s possible. They discussed the potential for next-generation geothermal power and the department’s pathways to commercial liftoff report on a recent webinar.

“We think this is absolutely feasible because next gen geothermal has some unique and really significant starting advantages,” said Vanessa Chan, chief commercialization officer and director of the DOE’s Office of Technology Transitions.

For starters, there’s a secure and established supply chain not impacted by geopolitics and pandemics, she said. Plus, oil and gas sector employees are equipped with skillsets to build and operate geothermal systems, and the technology already exists to make it happen.

“We’re pretty much ready to roll and scale as quickly as investment dollars are ready, and that is not the case for all the different clean energy technologies,” Chan said. “And when we say next-gen geothermal is clean, we mean it’s really, really squeaky clean. Once the well is drilled, no additional energy is required. That means there are no fuel costs or emissions. And most next-generation projects will have no secondary emissions of any kind.”

Geothermal energy harnesses heat belowground using wells to drill into reservoirs. The heat extracted can be used to heat or cool homes and buildings via direct use heat, or to generate electricity with higher temperature geothermal resources.

Besides being a renewable energy source, geothermal power plants provide baseload power —meaning they consistently produce electricity—regardless of weather conditions. Plus, their footprints are relatively small compared to other forms of renewable energy such as solar and wind.

Targeting next-gen

Unlike conventional geothermal, which doesn’t need much engineering to produce power by harnessing heat from naturally-occurring fractures in hot rock, next-generation geothermal energy uses existing oil and gas technologies (enhanced geothermal) or closed loop systems (advanced geothermal) to generate electricity from anywhere.

“A lot of people are familiar with conventional geothermal, where we tap the reservoirs of steam and hot water that occur naturally beneath the Earth’s surface. These energy resources are great, but geographically limited and hard to find,” said Jigar Shah, director of the DOE’s Loan Programs Office (LPO). “That’s why while we have the largest geothermal industry in the world, the U.S. currently only gets about 4 gigawatts of energy from conventional geothermal today. Instead of hunting for naturally occurring reservoirs in just a few locations, next-gen geothermal technologies make their own reservoirs using the hot rock that’s everywhere beneath the Earth’s surface.”

Enhanced geothermal systems require no new technology, considering hydraulic fracturing and horizontal drilling already exist. Modular deployment of multi-well pairs enables this model to scale, Shah said.

With closed-loop systems, fluids circulate through a series of closed wellbore loops, scalable through module deployment and increased wellbore length, he added.

Both have resource potential of more than 5 terawatts of energy.

The good news is that the industry is seeing progress in both.

(Source: U.S. Department of Energy’s Pathways to Commercial Liftoff: Next-Generation Geothermal Power)
Making progress

The DOE-sponsored Utah FORGE project, an international field laboratory managed by the Energy & Geoscience Institute at the University of Utah, is among those moving the sector forward.

Melissa Klembara, director of portfolio strategy for the Office of Clean Energy Demonstrations, pointed out how Utah FORGE’s work has enabled improvements in costs, well stimulation and drilling times—all among the areas that have challenged geothermal’s growth in the past.

“These commercial demonstration projects out there now are now matching FORGE’s drilling speeds, which is really great news to see,” she said.

Earlier this year, Fervo Energy said it reduced its drilling time by 70% with its Cape Station drilling campaign compared to its Project Red campaign in 2022. The reduced drilling time can be attributed to the use of modern oil and gas drilling equipment, including polycrystalline diamond compact drill bits.

The company also said costs for the first four wells in a six-well drilling program dropped by about 50% to $4.8 million per well from $9.4 million per well. The campaign, which included one vertical well, reached depths as great as 14,000 ft amid high temperatures.

RELATED

Oil, Gas Drilling Tech Transfer Boosts Fervo’s Geothermal Prowess

Advanced geothermal company Eavor Technologies is also making notable progress. The Canada-based company’s technology operates on a closed-loop system, so it doesn’t require fracking or water consumption. The DOE singled out Eavor’s successes, including a pilot loop in Alberta and a deep drilling demonstration in New Mexico, in the liftoff report.

“Success at this stage has enabled Eavor Technologies to develop the first ever large-scale demonstration of closed loop geothermal, in Geretsried, Germany, which is scheduled to produce about 8 MW of power from four loops drilled to about 3 miles’ depth in 2027,” according to the report. “Eavor anticipates drilling over 220 miles of borehole in total for the Geretsried, Germany, demonstration project.”
Bridging the gap

Liftoff analysis shows that next generation technologies could expand geothermal power by more than a factor of 20, Shah said. That would provide 90 GW or more that are clean and firm to the grid by 2050 across the U.S.

Shah said the $20 billion to $25 billion in investment needed to reach between 2 GW and 5 GW of geothermal energy in the U.S. is actually low compared to other technologies trying to become bankable, thanks to a mature oil and gas drilling industry.

“Once banks know what to expect from next-generation geothermal projects, they can start providing financing earlier and earlier in project development, which can really change the economics and help this industry start to get real scale,” he said. “We know firsthand at LPO how catalytic early financing can be in projects, and we’re actively looking for next-generation projects with innovative and exciting technologies to apply for LPO loans to bridge this gap.”

Becca Jones-Albertus, the DOE’s acting deputy assistant secretary for renewable energy, said the transition to clean energy and a net-zero economy will be “private-sector led, but government-enabled.”

“There's a big role for government to play, for instance, providing top notch market based research like the liftoff series, but it's definitely a supporting role,” she said. “The private sector has to lead the way.”

Geothermal technology overview across conventional (left) and next-generation (right) designs. (Source: U.S. Department of Energy’s Pathways to Commercial Liftoff: Next-Generation Geothermal Power)
A Radical Experiment Shows Cloud Brightening May Be Our Climate’s White Knight

Darren Orf
Tue, April 16, 2024 


Humans are not doing a great job lowering carbon emissions, so scientists are searching for ways to buy the world time to kick its nasty fossil fuel habit.


One idea is marine cloud brightening (MCB), and a new study says that MCB could also create cloud cover, making it an even better ‘painkiller’ for climate change that previously thought.


However, there’s a lot scientists still don’t know about MCB, including how it could affect ocean circulation patterns and rainfall on land.

Coming as a surprise to no one, 2023 was the warmest year on record. And that’s just another step in an already disturbing trend that sparked the creation of the Paris Climate Accord in 2015. There’s just one problem: the world is falling behind its emission-reducing commitments.

The world is currently on track for 4.8 degrees Celsius warming by the end of the century, which is far above the 2.7 degree Celsius goal. To realize that less-apocalyptic goal, the world needs to cut 28 percent of the greenhouse gas emissions that it’s currently on track to produce, according to NPR. It’s undeniable that the world is in a bit of a time crunch, so some scientists are pursuing a Plan B—solar geoengineering. If successful, it could buy humanity time to fully kick our addiction to fossil fuels and embrace the green energy revolution.


Now, a new study by scientists at the University of Birmingham (in collaboration with other U.S. and European universities) discovered that one of these geoengineering techniques—a technology known as marine cloud brightening (MCB)—could be a more effective “painkiller” for climate change than previously realized. The researchers created a “natural experiment” by closely analyzing cloud behavior as related to the periodic eruptions of Mount Kilauea volcano in Hawaii.

These natural injections of aerosols into the atmosphere mimic the overall goal of marine cloud brightening, which (in simple terms) also injects aerosols—in the case of MCB, hyperfine sea salt particles—into clouds to increase their brightness and reflectiveness. However, the team found that MCB actually gets most of its cooling effect from creating cloud cover. The results were published in the journal Nature Geoscience on Thursday.

“Our findings show that marine cloud brightening could be more effective as a climate intervention than climate models have suggested previously,” University of Birmingham’s Ying Chen, the study’s lead author, said in a press statement. “We must continue to improve fundamental understanding of aerosol’s impacts on clouds, further research on global impacts and risks of MCB, and search for ways to decarbonize human activities.”

Using machine learning to pore over historical satellite and meteorological data, the team created a predictor that showed cloud behavior during inactive volcano periods. Then, the researchers could easily identify how the volcano directly impacted clouds. Turns out, natural aerosols increased cloud cover by 50 percent during volcanic activity, with a cooling effect of -10 watts per square meter (negative is a good thing).

“Our findings suggest that MCB may be quite effective for alleviating climate warming, although it would probably manifest as an increase in cloud cover rather than cloud opacity, as the MCB terminology implies,” the paper reads. “This best practice would be particularly effective in tropical oceans where incoming solar radiation is strong and background environment is clean (that is, clouds are more ‘pristine’).”

While MCB has been around since the 1990s, the idea has been grabbing more headlines as the world continues to warm. The New York Times reported just last week that the University of Washington conducted its first MCB experiment off the coast of Alameda, California.

However, any kind of climate tool under the tech umbrella of “geoengineering” will draw some suspicion. Scientists, for example, aren’t sure how MCB could affect ocean circulation patterns, or if it could increase rainfall in some places while reducing it in others. But proponents emphasize that the world is already being geoengineered by human-created greenhouse gasses, and that the side effects of MCB could potentially be preferable to the the devastating costs of climate change.

There is one area of agreement between both camps—MCB isn’t a solution to climate change—but evidence is growing that it could be one way to lower the planet’s symptomatic fever while we attempt to treat the carbon-induced disease.
Costs of burning fossil fuels dwarf costs of energy transition: Report

Saul Elbein
THE HILL
Wed, April 17, 2024 

Climate action is costly, but inaction could be far more expensive, according to a new report.


© AP Photo/Joshua A. Bickel

The costs of enduring climate change are already six times higher than those for implementing measures to prevent it, a study published in Nature on Wednesday reveals.

The researchers projected an average total cost of $38 trillion by 2050 — and that’s the best-case scenario.

No matter what actions world governments and businesses take, by mid-century, per-capita global incomes will be 19 percent lower than they would have been in a world unaffected by climate change.

This cost could double if the world does not aggressively reduce fossil fuel consumption.

“Climate change will cause massive economic damages within the next 25 years in almost all countries around the world, also in highly-developed ones such as Germany, France and the United States,” lead author Leonie Wenz of the Potsdam Institute said in a statement.

Those shorter-term damages come from historic burning of fossil fuels, Wenz emphasized. If current burning isn’t rapidly cut down, “economic losses will become even bigger in the second half of the century.”

This question of cost is timely: on Tuesday, the Vermont Senate passed legislation that would require the oil industry to help pay for the cost of climate adaptation.

“Big Oil knew decades ago that their products would cause this damage,” state Sen. Anne Watson told reporters at the press conference advancing the bill. “It is only right that they pay a share of the costs to clean up this mess.”

Meanwhile, in Congress, GOP members are pushing forward legislation to bar the federal government from requiring big companies from reporting their carbon emissions — a pitch they make based on the idea that such a retreat is too expensive for consumers.

Many Republican-controlled state legislatures are also pushing to ban the public sector from doing business with banks that have long-term plans to reduce their fossil fuel footprint.

Last week, the U.N. climate chief said that rising temperatures and oil use meant that the world had just two years to make the financial and regulatory changes “essential in saving our planet.”

Despite growing global concern around climate change, oil and gas burning is now at record levels.


To compile their forecast, the authors analyzed data from 1,600 regions worldwide, assessing the impacts of rising average temperatures, fluctuations between day and night temperatures, and the frequency of extreme weather events.

The results highlight a stark injustice: countries with fewer resources, which have contributed the least to global warming, will suffer the most from declining incomes.

Nations at higher latitudes—such as Russia, Scandinavia, and Canada — might see some economic benefits from climate change, as milder winters reduce heating costs and extend growing seasons.

By contrast, countries closer to the equator — including India, Brazil, Nigeria, and much of Africa, Latin America, and Southeast Asia — will face disproportionately more significant economic damages.

Those countries will face costs 60 percent greater than the high-income countries — and 40 percent above high emitters like the U.S. and China.

But that doesn’t mean the global North will be immune — either from the direct impacts of climate change or the indirect costs.

The paper found that even in the best-case scenario, incomes in the U.S. and Europe will face ” a permanent income reduction” of 11 percent by midcentury.

In part, this comes from the direct impacts of climate change. Worsening drought, floods and storms will ravage U.S. and European farming regions, and more frequent and intense heat waves will drive up health care costs, as extreme weather spikes the price of insurance.

In an interconnected world, impacts on one part of the globe will pull on the rest. U.S. markets and supply chains draw from resources — from chocolate and coffee to wood and minerals — from more afflicted regions. Climate change is reducing both harvests and people’s ability to work outside in ways that will stunt the economies of more prosperous trading partners.

Then there is the political impact of what happens as people desert regions that can no longer support them, leading to a boost in humanitarian crises and migration that has already become a potent and divisive issue in the U.S. and European political systems.

Finally, the researchers note the disquieting possibility that they have underestimated the costs the world faces: climate predictions, they said, tend to be conservative.


And even where they are accurate, changes in average heat or rainfall often conceal an even starker increase in the size and power of extreme events, from hurricanes to heat waves.

“Staying on the path we are currently on will lead to catastrophic consequences,” Anders Levermann, study coauthor and a researcher at the Potsdam Institute said in a statement.

“The temperature of the planet can only be stabilized if we stop burning oil, gas and coal,” Levermann added.”

Welcome to The Hill’s Sustainability newsletter, I’m Saul Elbein — every week we follow the latest moves in the growing battle over sustainability in the U.S. and around the world.



Scotland to ditch key climate change target

Kevin Keane - BBC Scotland's environment correspondent
Wed, April 17, 2024 

Scotland was aiming to cut emissions by 75% by the end of the decade
[PA Media

The Scottish government is to ditch its flagship target of reducing greenhouse gas emissions by 75% by 2030.

The final goal of reaching "net-zero" by 2045 will remain, but BBC Scotland News understands the government's annual climate targets could also go.

Ministers have missed eight of the last 12 annual targets and have been told that reaching the 75% milestone by the end of the decade is unachievable.


A statement is expected at Holyrood on Thursday afternoon.

The Climate Change Committee (CCC) - which provides independent advice to ministers - warned back in 2022 that Scotland had lost its lead over the rest of the UK in tackling the issue.

Last year ministers failed to publish a plan it promised - required under the act - detailing how they were going to meet the targets.

Scottish government climate targets unachievable, says watchdog


Scotland's climate 'changing faster than expected'


Scotland loses climate change lead, advisers warn

Then in March of this year the CCC said for the first time that the 2030 target was unreachable.

Former first minister Nicola Sturgeon saw her SNP administration as world leaders on climate change when the targets were introduced in 2019, often asserting that Scotland had the "most stretching targets in the world."

Hers was the first government in the world to declare a climate emergency and Glasgow hosted the COP26 climate summit in 2021, yet environmentalists believe the emergency response never came.

So scrapping the targets will be seen as an embarrassing retreat for the SNP and the Scottish Greens, their partners in the Scottish government.

Scotland's emissions reduction target for 2030 was tougher than for the UK as a whole, which was for a reduction of 68% by the same date.
Where did the targets come from?

There was a febrile atmosphere around back in 2019 when the Scottish Parliament passed its landmark legislation to speed up the rate of decarbonisation

It was the height of the school climate strikes and just a few days earlier thousands had taken to the streets in support of Greta Thunberg's calls for more action.


Nicola Sturgeon - pictured here with Greta Thunberg and climate activist Vanessa Nakate - portrayed her government as being climate leaders at COP26 in Glasgow
 [PA Media]

At Holyrood, parties were trying to outbid each other on how quickly the country could go, eventually settling on a pace far beyond what experts had planned for.

The Scottish Greens - who are now in government with the SNP - proposed aiming to cut emissions by a whopping 80% compared with the baseline year of 1990.

But parliament settled on 75% - still 5% more than recommended - and the Climate Change Bill was agreed by all parties except the Greens, who abstained.

One former minister told me there was a "lack of realism" at the time.
What went wrong?

The new legislation required ministers to set annual targets for reducing emissions.

In a sense it was a hostage to fortune with the yearly totals heavily influenced by the winter weather which determines how much gas we use to heat up our homes.

But the trend was clear as eight out of 12 of the targets were missed.


Protestors marched to a rally in Holyrood Park in Edinburgh in the days before the climate targets were set [Getty Images]

With the closure of Scotland's last coal-fired power station at Longannet in 2016, politicians conceded that the low-hanging fruit had all been picked and any future progress would require big changes to how we live our lives.

But the Greens believe the current system has fundamentally failed with too much emphasis placed on targets rather than policies.

That might be how the Greens try to convince their voters that scrapping the targets will be the right decision.

Scottish Greens climate spokesman Mark Ruskell said the party was "absolutely determined to accelerate the urgent and substantial action needed to tackle the climate crisis as laid out by the CCC recently, and fully expect the Scottish government to respond to that challenge".

Have emissions been falling?

The short answer is yes, but not by enough.

By 2021 greenhouse gas emissions had fallen by 49.2% compared with the baseline level in 1990.

That's a massive half of our planet warming gases which have already been eradicated from the economy.

But the law required a 51.1% fall by that date to keep on track.

Some industries have seen huge changes that have driven down emissions like the energy and waste sectors.

Others have remained stubbornly unmoved such as transport and agriculture.
What would scrapping the targets mean?

It is likely the Scottish government would replicate the system of "carbon budgets" used by both the UK and Welsh governments.

Rather than annual targets, ministers would be told how much greenhouse gas could "safely" be emitted during a parliamentary term and have to come up with a plan to achieve that.

It would mean an end to the legal requirement of successive environment secretaries having to explain to parliament why the targets have been missed.

There is an argument that the annual targets are a distraction because emissions are influenced by many factors including the weather and that the overall trend is more important.

Having been the first government in the world to declare a climate emergency, scrapping targets will be an embarrassing retreat.
What will the Scottish government do now?

Ministers have a conundrum; they are legally required to produce a "climate change plan" which details how they will achieve their targets.

That plan is now long delayed and the Climate Change Committee confirmed last month that the flagship 2030 target was now beyond reach.

So, it is just not possible to produce that plan any more.

An option would be to set new targets within the existing legislation and then produce a plan.

But one official described those annual targets as nothing more meaningful than a straight line on a graph.

So abolishing them altogether - and perhaps setting a lower 2030 target - seems the most likely course of action available.


Yousaf ‘will ditch Sturgeon’s pledge to cut Scotland’s greenhouse gases’

Simon Johnson
Wed, April 17, 2024 

Humza Yousaf and his Government were accused of over-promising and under-delivering - Michael McGurk


Humza Yousaf will dump Nicola Sturgeon’s flagship pledge of cutting Scotland’s greenhouse gases by 75 per cent by the end of the decade, it has been reported.

Ms Sturgeon said her SNP administration was a global leader on climate change when the target was introduced in 2019, calling it the “most stretching” in the world.

But in an embarrassing climbdown, Mr Yousaf’s SNP-Green government is expected to use a ministerial statement at Holyrood on Thursday to confirm that the 2030 target has been ditched. Harmful emissions were supposed to have been cut by three-quarters compared to 1990 levels.

BBC Scotland reported that a final goal of Scotland being net zero by 2045 – five years ahead of the rest of the UK – would remain, but that annual climate targets covering emissions from sectors such as transport and heating could also be scrapped.
‘Succession of missed targets’

The expected announcement comes after the UK’s official climate watchdog said last month that the current rate of progress in cutting greenhouse gases would have to be increased by a factor of nine for the 2030 target to be met.

In a damning report, the Climate Change Committee said this level of increase was “beyond what is credible” and was double the most ambitious scenario it had modelled if stringent measures were introduced.

The assessment found that Scotland’s annual target for cutting emissions was missed again in 2021 – for the eighth time in the last 12 years – after greenhouse gas levels rose by 2.4 per cent as the economy rebounded from the Covid pandemic.

The Tories said ditching the 2030 target would be an “abject humiliation” for the SNP and its Green coalition partners.

Douglas Lumsden, the Scottish Tories’ shadow net zero secretary, said: “For all the boasting about their supposed environmental credentials, the reality is a succession of missed targets – and being forced to throw in the towel on this flagship pledge represents the biggest failure of the lot.

“This climbdown is not a surprise, given the damning report from the Climate Change Committee, but it is symptomatic of a nationalist coalition that routinely over-promises and under-delivers.”
‘Scotland deserves better’

Michael Shanks, a Scottish Labour MP, wrote on X, formerly Twitter: “Defending the profits of oil and gas giants, now binning their key climate target. Clearly the Greens are having a strong influence in government. Scotland deserves better than this lot.”

The Scottish Government refused to confirm or deny whether the 2030 report would be scrapped, saying the details would be announced in the statement by Mairi McAllan, the SNP’s Net Zero Secretary.

The Climate Change Committee is an independent statutory body that advises the UK Government and devolved administrations on their emissions targets.

Just over 6,000 heat pumps were installed in Scottish homes last year, it said in last month’s report, but this “needs to increase to more than 80,000 per year by the end of the decade”.

The committee also noted that publication of the Scottish Government’s new draft climate change plan, which was supposed to have happened late last year, had been delayed. This meant there was “no comprehensive delivery strategy for meeting future emissions targets and actions continue to fall far short of what is legally required”.
Red Lobster Is Considering Bankruptcy Partly Due to $11 Million Loss from Endless Shrimp Deal: Report

This comes after Red Lobster reported a $12.5 million operating loss in the fourth quarter of 2023


Luke Sharrett/Bloomberg/GettyMore

Kimberlee Speakman
Wed, Apr 17, 2024, 
PEOPLE

Red Lobster is considering a Chapter 11 bankruptcy filing, according to news sources.

The restaurant chain is considering filing for bankruptcy amid growing debt, sources with knowledge on the matter told Bloomberg.

The restaurant has been finding it difficult to make money with their current leases and labor costs, and are currently seeking advice from commercial law firm King & Spalding in order to figure out how to restructure to cut costs, the outlet also reported.

The sources said that Red Lobster still hasn’t made a final decision when it comes to whether or not to file for bankruptcy, but noted that it would help the business continue to operate while they figure out their next plan, which may include renegotiating some leases and removing some contracts.

Red Lobster did not immediately respond to PEOPLE’s request for comment.


Michael Nagle/Bloomberg/Getty
A seaside shrimp combo dish is displayed for a photograph at a Red Lobster restaurant stands in Yonkers, New York, U.S., on Thursday, July 24, 2014.

Related: Red Lobster Is Giving Out Free 'Endless Lobster' Dinners to Select Customers

This comes amid difficult financial times for the restaurant, as it reported a $12.5 million operating loss in the fourth quarter of 2023, despite its endless shrimp promotion, according to CNN.

A month later, Thai Union Group Plc, which took over the company in 2021 announced its plan to exit Red Lobster since it caused “negative financial contributions to Thai Union and its shareholders,” the outlet reported.

There have also been some recent internal changes at the company as Red Lobster named Jonathan Tibus as its new CEO last month, according to a report by Orlando Business Journal. He has been known for his expertise in restructuring restaurants on the verge of bankruptcy, according to Nation’s Restaurant News.

Michael Nagle/Bloomberg/Getty
A waitress carries a tray a lobster kettle and a crab trio dish at a Red Lobster restaurant in Yonkers, New York, U.S., on Thursday, July 24, 2014.

Related: Nicki Minaj Returns to Red Lobster After Being Fired for Dinner Date with Jimmy Fallon

In the past several months, Red Lobster has tried to drum up some publicity. In February, the chain announced that it would offer a limited number of guests a free meal of endless lobster in honor of their annual Lobsterfest.

The restaurant chain announced that the first-ever Endless Lobster Experience would give 150 winners across the country the chance to enjoy a complimentary, two-hour dinner of endless lobster, two side dishes and the chain’s popular cheddar biscuits.

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Bill Darden first opened the restaurant in 1968 in Lakeland, Fla. and the Darden Restaurants helped grow the chain to several locations in the U.S. before Golden Gate Capital took over the company in 2014, according to its website and Bloomberg. Following the COVID-19 pandemic, Thai Union Group Plc took over the company.


Red Lobster has been known for its endless shrimp deal. The company made it a permanent menu option in June, and increased the price from $20 to $25 as a result of losses.

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SPACE

James Webb Space Telescope's 'shocking' discovery may hint at hidden exomoon around 'failed star'

Robert Lea
Wed, April 17, 2024 

An illustration of a brown dwarf with a ring of reddish auroral emissions at its north pole.


Using the James Webb Space Telescope (JWST), astronomers have made the surprising discovery of methane emissions coming from a brown dwarf, or "failed star."

The find suggests that the brown dwarf features aurorae, and might even be orbited by an undiscovered exomoon, researchers said.

The JWST brown dwarf discovery is surprising, because these cold and isolated worlds are not expected to be warm enough for methane to emit infrared light.


The findings came about as a result of a JWST program to investigate 12 brown dwarfs. They suggest that these failed stars can generate aurorae similar to Earth's northern lights and southern lights, as well as those seen over Jupiter and Saturn. The lack of a star near this lonely brown dwarf may mean that the polar lights over it are being generated by a hidden active moon.

Related: James Webb Space Telescope spots hint of mysterious aurora over 'failed star'

The study team investigated the cold brown dwarf CWISEP J193518.59–154620.3 (W1935), located 47 light-years from Earth. While the mass of W1935 is poorly constrained, ranging from 6 to 35 times that of Jupiter, it is known to have a surface temperature of around 400 degrees Fahrenheit (204 degrees Celsius). That is around the temperature at which you'd bake chocolate chip cookies (failed brownies?).

"Methane gas is expected in giant planets and brown dwarfs, but we usually see it absorbing light, not glowing," Jackie Faherty, team leader and senior education manager at the American Museum of Natural History, said in a statement. "We were confused about what we were seeing at first, but ultimately, that transformed into pure excitement at the discovery."
Why do some stars fail?

Brown dwarfs get their unfortunate nickname "failed stars" because, despite forming directly from a collapsing cloud of gas and dust like a star, they don't have enough mass to trigger the nuclear fusion of hydrogen to helium at their cores.

This is the process that defines what a main-sequence star is, so brown dwarfs — which have masses greater than the largest planets but smaller than the smallest star — technically "fail" to reach this status.

Faherty and colleagues were looking at several brown dwarfs with JWST when they noticed that W1935 was similar, but with one intriguing difference: It is emitting methane, something never seen around a failed star before.

Modeling W1935 revealed this particular brown dwarf also has a so-called "temperature inversion." That's a phenomenon in which the atmosphere of a planet gets colder at deeper levels. This is something usually seen in planets orbiting stars that heat their atmospheres from the top down, but it wasn't expected for W1935 because the brown dwarf is isolated, and there is no external heat source.

"We were pleasantly shocked when the model clearly predicted a temperature inversion," team member and University of Hertfordshire scientist Ben Burningham said in the statement. "But we also had to figure out where that extra upper atmosphere heat was coming from."

an image of jupiter, showing the planet's colorful bands

To solve this mystery, the team looked closer to home at the solar system's gas giants, Jupiter and Saturn. Both of these gas giants have methane emissions, and both have atmospheres that demonstrate temperature inversion.

For Jupiter and Saturn, the cause of methane emissions and temperature inversion is aurorae, leading Faherty and the team to conclude this is what the JWST had detected around W1935. The big question is, what is driving the aurora at W1935?

This is an issue, because solar wind — the stream of charged particles from the sun — is the major driver of aurorae for Jupiter, Saturn and Earth. These charged strike the planets' magnetic fields and travel down field lines, interacting with particles in the atmosphere. This heats the upper layers of the atmosphere and causes the emission of light near the planet's poles. With no host star to blast W1935 with stellar winds, however, this process can't be the major driver of the lonely brown dwarf's aurora.

However, the aurora of Jupiter and Saturn have a secondary minor driver, in the form of charged particles streaming into the gas giants as a result of their active moons spewing material into space. For instance, Jupiter's moon Io is the most volcanic body in the solar system, spewing lava dozens of miles into space, while the Saturn moon Enceladus spits geysers into space that contain water vapor and other material that simultaneously freezes and boils when it hits space.

Thus, the aurora of W1935 with no star or stellar winds indicates that the brown dwarf might be orbited by an active moon.

Related: Are they exomoons or not? Scientists debate existence of 1st moons seen beyond our solar system

More evidence will be needed before scientists can confirm the existence of a brown dwarf moon for the first time. Until then, these initial indications offer an insight into just how influential the JWST has been since it started sending its observations of the universe back to Earth in the summer of 2022.

"Every time an astronomer points JWST at an object, there’s a chance of a new mind-blowing discovery," Faherty concluded. "Methane emission was not on my radar when we started this project, but now that we know it can be there and the explanation for it so enticing, I am constantly on the lookout for it. That’s part of how science moves forward."

The team's research was published today (April 17) in the journal Nature.


Plasma Physicist Warns That Elon Musk's Disposable Satellites May Be Damaging the Earth's Magnetic Field

Victor Tangermann
Wed, April 17, 2024 

Left Field

Dead satellites and other debris are constantly burning up as they fall out of Earth's orbit.

Conventional wisdom is destroying all that space junk is good, because it keeps orbit less cluttered. But it may have harmful effects on our planet's magnetic field, as plasma physicist and former Air Force research scientist Sierra Solter — the author of a contentious and yet-to-be-peer-reviewed paper — argues in a new essay for The Guardian.

Ventures like Elon Musk's SpaceX are launching thousands of satellites into orbit, and tens of thousands more are soon to follow as interest in the private space industry and space tourism continues to grow.


But having retired satellites burn up in the Earth's atmosphere just might have disastrous effects on our planet, disturbing the plasma that forms a protective shell around it, shielding humanity from harmful radiation.

"After studying the problem for over a year, I have no doubt that the sheer vastness of this pollution is going to disrupt our delicate plasma environment in one way or another," Solter wrote, arguing that big money in "commercial space ventures" could stop us from "discussing this potential crisis."
Strip Show

Companies like SpaceX have long argued that satellites burning up during reentry into the Earth's atmosphere is a harmless process. Solter, however, believes this practice releases huge amounts of metallic ash, more than "an Eiffel Tower's worth" a year, directly into the ionosphere.

This ash, especially particulates of aluminum, could wreak havoc on — or even punch new holes into — the atmosphere's ozone layer, potentially leaving humanity exposed back on the ground.

"If all of these conductive materials accumulate into a huge layer of trash, it could trap or deflect all or parts of our magnetic field," Solter argued in the opinion piece. "The Earth is a ball magnet that we’re surrounding with fast-moving metal trash."

"People like Elon Musk and Jeff Bezos repeatedly state that space is the key to human longevity," Solter wrote. "But what if it is the opposite? What if the space industry is the means to our pale blue dot’s demise?"

"Until this pollution is studied further, we should all reconsider satellite internet," she concluded.

More on the magnetosphere: Paper Claims Dying SpaceX Satellites Could Weaken Earth's Magnetic Field
Once a fringe Indian ideology, Hindu nationalism is now mainstream, thanks to Modi's decade in power

KRUTIKA PATHI and SHEIKH SAALIQ
Wed, April 17, 2024 


1 / 16
 Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi has sandalwood paste and vermilion applied on his forehead during the inauguration of Kashi Vishwanath Dham Corridor, a promenade that connects the Ganges River with the centuries-old temple dedicated to Hindu god Shiva in Varanasi, India, Dec. 13, 2021. Hindu nationalism, once a fringe ideology in India, is now mainstream. Nobody has done more to advance this cause than Modi, one of India’s most beloved and polarizing political leaders. (AP Photo/Rajesh Kumar Singh, File)

AHMEDABAD, India (AP) — Hindu nationalism, once a fringe ideology in India, is now mainstream. Nobody has done more to advance this cause than Prime Minister Narendra Modi, one of India’s most beloved and polarizing political leaders.

And no entity has had more influence on his political philosophy and ambitions than a paramilitary, right-wing group founded nearly a century ago and known as the RSS.

“We never imagined that we would get power in such a way,” said Ambalal Koshti, 76, who says he first brought Modi into the political wing of the Rashtriya Swayamsevak Sangh in the late 1960s in their home state, Gujarat.

Modi was a teenager. Like other young men — and even boys — who joined, he would learn to march in formation, fight, meditate and protect their Hindu homeland.

A few decades earlier, while Mahatma Gandhi preached Hindu-Muslim unity, the RSS advocated for transforming India — by force, if necessary — into a Hindu nation. (A former RSS worker would fire three bullets into Gandhi’s chest in 1948, killing him months after India gained independence.)

Modi's spiritual and political upbringing from the RSS is the driving force, experts say, in everything he's done as prime minister over the past 10 years, a period that has seen India become a global power and the world’s fifth-largest economy.

At the same time, his rule has seen brazen attacks against minorities — particularly Muslims — from hate speech to lynchings. India's democracy, critics say, is faltering as the press, political opponents and courts face growing threats. And Modi has increasingly blurred the line between religion and state.

At 73, Modi is campaigning for a third term in a general election, which starts Friday. He and the ruling Bharatiya Janata Party are expected to win. He's challenged by a broad but divided alliance of regional parties.

Supporters and critics agree on one thing: Modi has achieved staying power by making Hindu nationalism acceptable — desirable, even — to a nation of 1.4 billion that for decades prided itself on pluralism and secularism. With that comes an immense vote bank: 80% of Indians are Hindu.

“He is 100% an ideological product of the RSS,"in said Nilanjan Mukhopadhyay, who wrote a Modi biography. "He has delivered their goals.”

UNITING HINDUS


Between deep breaths under the night sky in western India a few weeks ago, a group of boys recited an RSS prayer in Sanskrit: “All Hindus are the children of Mother India ... we have taken a vow to be equals and a promise to save our religion.”

More than 65 years ago, Modi was one of them. Born in 1950 to a lower-caste family, his first exposure to the RSS was through shakhas — local units — that induct boys by combining religious education with self-defense skills and games.

By the 1970s, Modi was a full-time campaigner, canvassing neighborhoods on bicycle to raise RSS support.

“At that time, Hindus were scared to come together,” Koshti said. “We were trying to unite them.”

The RSS — formed in 1925, with the stated intent to strengthen the Hindu community — was hardly mainstream. It was tainted by links to Gandhi’s assassination and accused of stoking hatred against Muslims as periodic riots roiled India.

For the group, Indian civilization is inseparable from Hinduism, while critics say its philosophy is rooted in Hindu supremacy.

Today, the RSS has spawned a network of affiliated groups, from student and farmer unions to nonprofits and vigilante organizations often accused of violence. Their power — and legitimacy — ultimately comes from the BJP, which emerged from the RSS.

“Until Modi, the BJP had never won a majority on their own in India’s Parliament,” said Christophe Jaffrelot, an expert on Modi and the Hindu right. “For the RSS, it is unprecedented.”

SCALING HIS POLITICS


Modi got his first big political break in 2001, becoming chief minister of home state Gujarat. A few months in, anti-Muslim riots ripped through the region, killing at least 1,000 people.

There were suspicions that Modi quietly supported the riots, but he denied the allegations and India's top court absolved him over lack of evidence.

Instead of crushing his political career, the riots boosted it.

Modi doubled down on Hindu nationalism, Jaffrelot said, capitalizing on religious tensions for political gain. Gujarat’s reputation suffered from the riots, so he turned to big businesses to build factories, create jobs and spur development.

“This created a political economy — he built close relations with capitalists who in turn backed him,” Jaffrelot said.

Modi became increasingly authoritarian, Jaffrelot described, consolidating power over police and courts and bypassing the media to connect directly with voters.

The “Gujarat Model,” as Modi coined it, portended what he would do as a prime minister.

“He gave Hindu nationalism a populist flavor," Jaffrelot said. "Modi invented it in Gujarat, and today he has scaled it across the country.”

BIG PLANS

In June, Modi aims not just to win a third time — he’s set a target of receiving two-thirds of the vote. And he’s touted big plans.

“I'm working every moment to make India a developed nation by 2047,” Modi said at a rally. He also wants to abolish poverty and make the economy the world's third-largest.

If Modi wins, he’ll be the second Indian leader, after Jawaharlal Nehru, to retain power for a third term.

With approval ratings over 70%, Modi’s popularity has eclipsed that of his party. Supporters see him as a strongman leader, unafraid to take on India’s enemies, from Pakistan to the liberal elite. He’s backed by the rich, whose wealth has surged under him. For the poor, a slew of free programs, from food to housing, deflect the pain of high unemployment and inflation. Western leaders and companies line up to court him, turning to India as a counterweight against China.

He's meticulously built his reputation. In a nod to his Hinduism, he practices yoga in front of TV crews and the U.N., extols the virtues of a vegetarian diet, and preaches about reclaiming India's glory. He refers to himself in the third person.

P.K. Laheri, a former senior bureaucrat in Gujarat, said Modi “does not risk anything" when it comes to winning — he goes into the election thinking the party won't miss a single seat.

The common thread of Modi's rise, analysts say, is that his most consequential policies are ambitions of the RSS.

In 2019, his government revoked the special status of disputed Kashmir, the country’s only Muslim-majority region. His government passed a citizenship law excluding Muslim migrants. In January, Modi delivered on a longstanding demand from the RSS — and millions of Hindus — when he opened a temple on the site of a razed mosque.

The BJP has denied enacting discriminatory policies and says its work benefits all Indians.

Last week, the BJP said it would pass a common legal code for all Indians — another RSS desire — to replace religious personal laws. Muslim leaders and others oppose it.

But Modi's politics are appealing to those well beyond right-wing nationalists — the issues have resonated deeply with regular Hindus. Unlike those before him, Modi paints a picture of a rising India as a Hindu one.

Satish Ahlani, a school principal, said he'll vote for Modi. Today, Ahlani said, Gujarat is thriving — as is India.

“Wherever our name hadn’t reached, it is now there,” he said. “Being Hindu is our identity; that is why we want a Hindu country. ... For the progress of the country, Muslims will have to be with us. They should accept this and come along.”

___

Saaliq reported from New Delhi.
Indian polls from Friday to decide future of its democracy

Jawed Naqvi 
Published April 18, 2024 
DAWN
Polling officials carrying EVMs at Sukma, in India’s Chhattisgarh state, embark an aircraft bound for a polling station on Wednesday, ahead of the country’s upcoming general election.—AFP

NEW DELHI: India begins its crucial national elections on Friday amid hopes and fears for its troubled democracy.

Prime Minister Narendra Modi, the most right-wing leader to head the country, is hoping to win a third consecutive term, the first time since Jawaharlal Nehru, while his rejuvenated rivals say he could lose.

Mr Modi says he is confident of getting more than 400 seats in the 18th Lok Sabha, a brute majority of in the 545-seat lower house, a feat achieved only once by Rajiv Gandhi.

The Bharatiya Janata Party hopes to increase its tally from 303 to 370, the rest coming from other members of the ruling National Democratic Alliance (NDA). It is widely feared that Mr Modi would seek to use the majority to change the constitution to align with his idea of Hindu Rashtra.

Opposition sees an opening for itself in PM’s northern stronghold; Modi says he is confident of getting more than 400 seats in Lok Sabha

Mr Modi’s hitherto fractious rivals comprising regional parties plus the Congress, recently cobbled the India National Development Inclusive Alliance (INDIA) bloc. They are pitching for the removal of the NDA from power for its “whimsical policies, narcissistic hegemony, communal avowal as well as violence against the minorities and the fear factor against any dissent”.

Ground reports say there is no Modi wave evident in any part of the country, but these are early days. The biggest chunk of seats will be in the fray on Friday, covering 102 races in 21 states. The remaining six phases of the polls, including the last leg on June 1, will make these the longest elections in memory. Security is cited as the reason, and it would involve the deployment of 3.4 lakh paramilitary forces in rotation.

West Bengal, where the Bharatiya Janata Party is hoping to expand from the 18 of 42 seats it won last time, would see polls in all seven phases. A maximum of 92,000 security personnel are likely to be deployed there.

The BJP had just two seats in the state in 2014.

The NDA is banking largely on the so-called Modi magic together with the Ram Mandir and the abrogation of Article 370 in Jammu and Kashmir. Every BJP leader is reinforcing Hindutva, which otherises the Muslims. The BJP’s manifesto is personalised as ‘Modi ki Guarantee’, with the programmes of a decade-long rule listed. The Congress’s promise of ten forms of justice has fresh appeal: “We promise you greater freedom, faster growth, more equitable development and justice for all.”

The rub however is in the numbers. Mr Modi’s 39 per cent votes got him 55 per cent seats in 2019. In so doing, he obviously won by dividing the 61 per cent votes cast for non-BJP parties.

The opposition sees in this a chance, which requires it to unite where it matters. The question is where would Mr Modi find the extra 67 opposition seats while not losing any of his to account for the BJP’s goal of hitting 370 without allies.

The opposition sees an opening for itself in Mr Modi’s northern stronghold. Much has changed since 2019 when he won all seven seats in Delhi, all 10 in Haryana, all 25 in Rajasthan, 25 of 48 in Maharashtra, 27 of 29 in Madhya Pradesh, all 26 in Gujarat, 62 of 80 in Uttar Pradesh, 22 of 40 in Bihar, all five in Uttarakhand and all four in Himachal Pradesh.

That adds up to 213 seats for the BJP from the northern stronghold. Elsewhere, the BJP picked up 25 out of 28 in Karnataka, eight of 21 in Odisha and four from 17 in Telangana. The BJP won two seats from 25 in Andhra Pradesh. It’s saturated in the north and in the absence of a divisive issue clicking, the chances are it could only go down from there.

In Karnataka, Telangana and Himachal Pradesh the Congress has taken power since the last elections. The BJP might improve its tally in Andhra Pradesh where it has cobbled an alliance with the Telugu Desam. Wild guesses have been made, however. Rahul Gandhi says the Modi alliance could be restricted to 180, nearly a hundred short of a majority.

Shiv Sena’s Uadhav Thackeray on whose strength the BJP won handsomely in Maharashtra feels, not without a tinge of bitterness that the BJP would get just 45 seats. And the Trinamool Congress of West Bengal says it would get twice the number of seats than the BJP in the state, which should worry Mr Modi’s supporters.

After the Muzaffarnagar communal polarisation of 2014 and Pulwama-Balakot nationalist fervour fuelled his campaign in 2019, the Modi souffle has so far failed to rise again.

Published in Dawn, April 18th, 2024
Hepatitis crisis

DAWN
Editorial 
Published April 18, 2024



THE sheer scale of the crisis is staggering. A new WHO report flags Pakistan as the country with the highest number of hepatitis C cases in the world and fifth overall in terms of the prevalence of the hepatitis B and C variants combined.
With a total of 12.6m reported cases, of which 8.8m are of the C variant of the viral disease, and potentially millions more that remain undiagnosed, the country clearly has a severe health crisis on its hands. However, despite the fact that nearly 5pc of Pakistan’s population suffers from hepatitis B and C and trends show an increase in prevalence over recent years, the crisis is not being discussed enough, even though these diseases are preventable with a few precautions and treatable in many cases with medical interventions. Instead, the transmission of these viruses continues to increase because proper sterilisation techniques are largely not followed. Reused syringes, transfusion of unscreened blood and inadequate sanitary conditions can become the cause of disease transmission in healthcare settings. Elsewhere, seemingly innocuous items, such as a barber’s inadequately sterilised razor, can become the medium of transmission of the disease.

Pakistan must take inspiration from Egypt. Over the last decade or so, Egypt has been able to slash hepatitis C prevalence from over 10pc of its population to about 0.38pc. The WHO director general has ascribed its success to utilising “modern tools and political commitment at the highest level to use those tools to prevent infections and save lives”. It is worth pointing out that, in previous years, Egypt used to rank ahead of Pakistan in terms of hepatitis B and C prevalence. However, starting in 2014, the country launched a national campaign offering free testing and treatment for hepatitis C. It tested more than 60m people and treated more than 4m, of which 99pc were cured with locally manufactured antiviral treatments. Its enviable progress was made possible thanks to the rigorous implementation of improved patient safety practices and the implementation of universal injection and blood safety procedures. This is precisely the approach Pakistan needs to adopt. The country has already demonstrated its capabilities in handling national-level health emergencies during the Covid-19 outbreak. Health authorities must now treat endemic hepatitis B and C with the same level of urgency and eliminate these painful and potentially deadly diseases with the same urgency.

Published in Dawn, April 18th, 2024