Monday, April 22, 2024

 

What Australia and the U.K.'s grocery codes can teach us about Canada's food fight

Progress on a Canadian grocery code of conduct has stalled as two major retailers refuse to sign it, claiming it will raise prices.

The code is intended to set rules for fair dealing in negotiations between retailers and suppliers, helping level the playing field in the grocery industry. 

Politicians and others have pushed back on claims the code could raise prices, saying similar codes in the United Kingdom and Australia had a stabilizing effect. 

But what do those grocery rules look like, and have they led to price changes?

Although Canada's proposed code of conduct differs from the Australian and U.K. counterparts that influenced it, there may be lessons to draw from those frameworks as public discourse about the Canadian code comes to a head. 

Political pressure

Discussions about a grocery code here got underway before food inflation started to surge. But in recent months, rhetoric about the code and grocery prices have become increasingly intertwined as consumers felt the strain of higher bills. 

As the planned 2024 launch of the code neared, Loblaw and Walmart said they wouldn’t sign it in its current form, arguing it could raise prices further. 

Meanwhile, in hearings by a House of Commons committee studying food prices, some MPs said the code could help with food prices, claiming that’s what happened in Australia and the U.K.

“When the codes of conduct were introduced in those countries, there was actually very positive impacts on grocery store prices,” said Bloc Québécois MP Yves Perron in French at a committee meeting Dec. 7.

Michael von Massow, a food economy professor at the University of Guelph, doesn't think Canada's grocery code will lower prices. 

In fact, he thinks it could put upward pressure on prices — but that pressure is more likely to squeeze big grocers' margins than significantly boost costs to consumers. 

"My guess is ... everyone will get squeezed a bit. We'll see small price increases, but not to the degree that the big players are squeezed," von Massow said. 

The code was not created with affordability in mind, but rather economic stability for suppliers and manufacturers, said Michael Graydon, CEO of Food, Health & Consumer Products of Canada and chairman of the interim board for the code.  

He, however, does believe it could help stabilize prices, saying countries with grocery codes have seen lower food inflation than others after those codes were implemented.

“It shouldn't be the ... silver bullet of affordability,” he said.

Other countries' codes

The U.K. has had a mandatory grocery code for more than a decade, prompted by many of the same concerns that led to the creation of the Canadian version.

“The code is designed to stop retailers transferring excessive risk and unexpected cost to suppliers,” said Mark White, the U.K.'s current code adjudicator. 

An investigation by the country's Competition Commission concluded grocers’ practices negatively affected quality, innovation, investment and consumer choice, he said. 

The code applies to the U.K.'s 14 biggest retailers selling groceries and has been mandatory since 2010 after an earlier, voluntary code proved ineffective, said Christine Tacon, a food chain expert and the code adjudicator until 2020. That role was introduced in 2013 and given a "pretty hefty stick," Tacon said — the power to fine retailers by up to one per cent of their revenue. 

Neither retail prices nor prices between suppliers and retailers are covered by the British code of conduct. However, White recently published a set of “golden rules” for retailers dealing with price increase requests from suppliers. 

In Australia, the launch of a grocery code in 2015 was prompted by complaints about how grocers treated suppliers, said Tanya Barden, CEO of the Australian Food and Grocery Council.

The code, which has an independent reviewer, is voluntary. But once signed, it becomes legally binding — and all the major players in Australia’s heavily concentrated industry have signed on. 

“One of the cornerstones of the Australian code is the requirement for the retailers to negotiate in good faith,” said Barden. 

The Australian and British codes don’t cover the conduct of suppliers or many smaller retailers, but Tacon believes changing behaviours among the biggest players can have a trickle-down effect.

Mixed results

Comparing Canada's food inflation data to numbers from other countries doesn't paint a conclusive picture. In the years before the COVID-19 pandemic, during which Australia and the U.K. had grocery codes, each of the three countries outpaced the others at different points.

A look at food inflation by country could be seen to suggest some stabilization after the codes were implemented, but it's difficult to peg changes in food inflation to a single factor. 

In both the U.K. and Australia, annual food inflation varied widely from year to year before grocery codes were introduced — some years more than nine per cent, others below one per cent or even negative, according to data from the Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development.

After the British code was implemented, annual food inflation numbers in the U.K. appeared to stabilize somewhat, remaining below three per cent from 2014 until 2022 (and negative from 2014 to 2016).

After Australia’s code was introduced, food inflation remained below one per cent until it began to accelerate in 2019. 

Regular surveys of suppliers show the U.K. and Australian codes have led to improvements in treatment by retailers.

The U.K. code benefits everyone involved, said Tacon, including consumers, who over time have access to more choice as smaller suppliers are less likely to be squeezed out of the market. 

What's next

Canada’s grocery code shares aspects of both the British and Australian models, but differs in one major way: it’s meant to cover suppliers as well as retailers, which Tacon said makes it much more complicated.

And right now, it’s not clear whether it will end up being voluntary or mandatory. 

Without all the major players on board, the voluntary Canadian code won’t work, advocates and politicians say. In February, the House of Commons committee told Loblaw and Walmart that if they didn’t sign on, the committee would recommend that federal and provincial governments enshrine the code in law.

Australia's code may not be voluntary for much longer, either. In April, a government-commissioned report recommended that the code be made mandatory.

Barden said the Australian code has been effective, though there’s room for improvement — “and it’s not a panacea for the market concentration.”

“The (grocery) code is aimed at improving trust, transparency and certainty in the negotiations between retailers and suppliers,” said Barden. 

“They’re different issues.”

This report by The Canadian Press was first published April 21, 2024.

HAPPY EARTH DAY

Evacuation Warning Issued as Wildfire Nears Oil Sands Hub in Canada

A wildfire in the vicinity of Fort McMurray in Alberta has prompted the local authorities to issue a warning that local residents must be ready to evacuate if the fire continues expanding.

That’s according to Bloomberg, which reported that the fire was raging near a town 25 miles from Fort McMurray. The report recalled that eight years ago another wildfire forced the evacuation of tens of thousands of locals and the suspension of some 1 million barrels of oil in daily production.

There were production shut-ins in Canada last year as well, because of wildfires. In March of that year, over 300,000 bpd of daily production were shut in because of the fires, representing 3.7% of total output. At the time, there were 110 active wildfires across Alberta, of which 36 were out of control.

Some of these fires are still burning, according to government data, with media labeling them “zombie fires”. These appeared to have remained alive even during the winter, burning below the snow thanks to the abundance of peat moss.

Zombie fires are nothing unusual but, according to some reports, their number this year is the unusual part. According to a BBC report from February, most zombie fires die out by spring but this year, January saw 106 of them still active.

This has prompted worry about an even more devastating wildfire season in Canada although some of them were linked to arson.

Last year, wildfires began subsiding by early May, helped by spring rains. However, Rystad Energy warned at the time that nearly 2.7 million barrels per day of Alberta oil sands production was in “very high” or “extreme” wildfire danger rating zones in the month of May. Alberta produced some 3.8 million bpd in total over most of 2023. In November alone, the daily average rose to an all-time high of 4.2 million barrels daily.

By Charles Kennedy for Oilprice.com


2016


 

Airbus workers at Quebec plant reject company's third contract offer

Unionized workers at an Airbus assembly plant north of Montreal have rejected a contract offer for the third time. 

The International Association of Machinists and Aerospace Workers, which represents about 1,300 employees at the Mirabel, Que. facility, said Sunday that nearly 70 per cent of its members voted against the proposed deal. 

"With this agreement in principle, we believed we had met the expectation of our members, but that was not the case," Éric Rancourt, the union's spokesman at the negotiating table, said in a news release. "We will quickly communicate with the employer to discuss the next steps."

The union said working hours and pay were among the reasons union members voted against the offer.

Workers soundly rejected a second offer from the employer earlier this month, with almost all of them voting in favour of strike action. No deadline has currently been set for a strike.

The proposed five-year contract included a wage increase of eight per cent in the first year followed by annual increases of three or four per cent, as well as improvements to other benefits including insurance, vacation and pensions. 

Airbus said in an emailed statement that it is disappointed that the offer was rejected and is "studying all possible options."

The company said the A220 plane assembled at the facility is not yet profitable and said both workers and the company need to show flexibility.

"We have put everything on the table in terms of improving salary conditions, increasing benefits and pensions, and adding a premium to foster knowledge-sharing among our employees," said Patrick Bertin, head of human resources at Airbus Canada. "This is a young aircraft program, and additional efforts need to be done in order to ensure its long-term success."

This report by The Canadian Press was first published April 21, 2024.

UK Firms Embrace Reshoring Amidst Global Supply Chain Concerns

  • UK companies plan to invest heavily in re-industrialization, totaling £338 billion over the next three years.

  • The trend towards re-shoring is picking up, with executives emphasizing the importance of improving domestic manufacturing capability for national security.

  • Executives anticipate that re-industrialization will bring both competitive advantages and sustainability gains.

UK firms are planning to invest hundreds of billions in an attempt to bubble-wrap supply chains and bring manufacturing closer to home, new research suggests.

Investment in re-industrialisation among UK firms is expected to hit $423.5bn over the course next three years, according to research from professional services firm Capgemini, up from $351.4bn over the last three years.

The research, based on a survey of 200 supply chain and manufacturing executives at UK firms with more than $1bn in revenue, suggests that the trend towards re-shoring is picking up.

Although only a quarter of firms had upgraded their manufacturing facilities within the past year, 78 per cent of surveyed executives said they had a re-industrialisation strategy or were currently developing strategies.

Just over two thirds argued that improving domestic manufacturing capability was “imperative to ensure national security”.

The executives anticipated that re-industrialisation would bring both competitive advantages and sustainability gains too.

Like many advanced economies, the UK has seen a relatively rapid fall in the importance of manufacturing over the past few decades. Manufacturing made up a quarter of national output in 1980 but has since fallen to less than ten per cent.

However, many western governments have returned to industrial strategies in recent years, reflecting both geopolitical tensions and concerns about the frailty of global supply chains.

The survey showed that 47 per cent of large European and US organisations have already invested in re-shoring their manufacturing production.

So far the UK has been slow on embracing industrial policy, with no major policies to match the Inflation Reduction Act in the US or the Green Industrial Plan in the EU. Just over half of surveyed firms in the UK thought that government policy needed to go further.

The survey suggests investment in the workforce might be a good place to start. Two thirds of surveyed executives argued the UK needed a more highly skilled workforce as the wave of re-industrialisation continued.

Coal Continues to Thrive Despite Pledges for Clean Energy

  • Coal power generation increased in 2023, driven by new plants in Asia, particularly in China and India.

  • China and India plan to continue building new coal plants, defying global pressure to decarbonize.

  • Countries in Europe and North America are rapidly decreasing their dependency on coal power in favor of natural gas and renewable energy.


Coal was more popular than ever in 2023, despite big promises from many world powers to curb production and use in favour of cleaner alternatives. Mainly owing to China and India, the generation of electricity from coal production increased last year, as several new plants came online across Asia. While countries such as the U.S. and the U.K. are ditching coal for natural gas and renewable alternatives, several countries across Asia continue to rely heavily on coal for their electricity production, with many projects expected to run for several years. 

An annual report from Global Energy Monitor found that the global power generation capacity from coal increased in 2023. Last year, China contributed around two-thirds of the world’s new coal facilities, while Indonesia, India, Vietnam, Japan, Bangladesh, Pakistan, and South Korea also opened new plants. These facilities could run for the next two to three decades, based on the typical lifespan of coal plants. While new plants are generally less polluting than older ones, the International Energy Agency (IEA) has been clear to state that the world must curb coal production in favour of cleaner energy sources, including natural gas. 

Flora Champenois, one of the authors of the report, stated “Right now, coal’s future is a two-part story: What do we do about currently operating coal plants, and then, how do we make sure the last coal plant that will ever exist is one that’s already built.” She added, “If it weren’t for the China boom, that’s pretty much where we’d already be.”

Although China has developed a huge renewable energy capacity in recent years, making it a world leader in green energy, it continues to rely heavily on coal. Both China and India plan to continue building new coal plants for several years. Last year, China’s new plant construction reached an eight-year high, and if the government goes ahead with existing plant proposals it could increase its operating fleet by around one-third. China accounts for approximately 60 percent of the global coal usage, followed by India – which derives 80 percent of its electricity from coal – and the U.S. 

Climate organisations and other world powers were hopeful that China would move away from coal when the government pledged to stop constructing coal power plants overseas and to “strictly control coal-fired power generation projects” in China in 2021. At the time, China’s President Xi Jinping stated that the change in energy policy demonstrated the country’s willingness to support international efforts to decarbonise and supported China’s aim for net-zero carbon emissions by 2060. However, in the two years before Xi’s pledge, the government approved 127 plants, with a collective capability of producing 54 GW of power. In the two years after, the number increased to 182 plants, with 131 GW of coal power.

Meanwhile, several countries in Europe and North America are rapidly decreasing their dependency on coal power in favour of alternatives such as natural gas and renewable energy. In Germany, a report from January showed that the country’s emissions had fallen to a 70-year low thanks to its reduced reliance on coal. For the first time, electricity generation from renewable sources in Germany stood at over 50 percent of the total in 2023, while coal's contribution fell to 26 percent from 34 percent. This resulted in a decrease of 46 million tonnes in CO2 emissions. 

In the U.S., between six and eight coal-fired power plant units are expected to retire this year, according to the Energy Information Administration. This is less than the number of units that closed in 2023 – 22 units – but it suggests a continuation of the downward trend in coal production and usage. This has been supported by more competitive natural gas prices and an increase in the country’s renewable energy capacity. There have been delays in the retirement of several coal plants in the U.S. owing to grid weaknesses, with many renewable energy projects still waiting to be connected to the grid and new infrastructure to be built. However, once these challenges are overcome, several more coal facilities will likely close.  

In 2023, the electricity generated by gas and coal power plants in the U.K. decreased by 20 percent, with fossil fuel consumption falling to its lowest since 1957. The U.K. has just one remaining coal plant, which generated electricity for one percent of the country’s power demand, equivalent to around 4 TWh. Coal has fallen by 97 percent and gas by 43 percent in the last 15 years, according to Carbon Brief. Coal power is expected to decrease even more this year with the U.K.’s last coal plant - the Ratcliffe on Soar coal plant - scheduled to close in September, after 55 years in operation. 

While coal production and consumption are falling rapidly in the U.S. and parts of Europe, this is being outweighed by the rising demand in Asia. China and India intend to increase their coal consumption to meet the demands of population growth and industrialisation, constructing new coal plants to meet this rising demand, despite the increasing global pressure to decarbonise. According to the IEA and other climate experts, all countries must decrease their reliance on coal and shift to cleaner alternatives in order for the world to meet international decarbonisation targets and curb the effects of climate change. 

By Felicity Bradssock for Oilprice.com 




The Great Game Returns to Central Asia

  • Russia's invasion of Ukraine has reanimated US and EU interest in Central Asia.

  • China has eclipsed Russia as the region's largest trade partner.

  • Central Asian trade is diversifying away from Russia and towards the West.


The Great Game is playing out once again in Central Asia, but it is getting a new name and adopting a different set of rules. Economics, not politics, is defining the terms of the current superpower competition for regional influence, according to a report prepared by a Kazakh research institute. 

There is a key difference governing the global rivalries in Central Asia in the 19th and 21st centuries: these days, regional states, not outsiders, wield the more influence over potential outcomes, according to the report, titled Pursuing Multi-Vectorism Through Business Diplomacy: The Path for Central AsiaThe report was published by the Talap Center for Applied Research. 

“The region, previously the theater of the Great Game in the confrontation of superpowers, is now trying to become an opportunity zone,” the report states.

Russia’s unprovoked attack on Ukraine in 2022, and the imposition of Western sanctions to punish Russian aggression, changed Central Asia’s geopolitical dynamics by reanimating US and European Union interest in the region. By extension, Russia’s actions encouraged the diversification of trade and investment, changing East-West trade patterns connecting China and Europe. Sanctions have diminished the utility of the Northern Corridor via the trans-Siberian railway, while providing impetus for the growth of the Middle Corridor via Central Asia.

These changes have shifted Central Asia’s center of geo-economic gravity. China has eclipsed Russia as the region’s largest trade partner, while the overall trend is toward diversification of trade partners. The West’s share of Central Asian trade under the present dynamic is set to keep rising.

“The trade and investment dynamics in the region show a significant shift of diversification with non-traditional markets of Europe, North America, South Asia, and the Middle East since 2022,” the Talap report notes. “This has become possible due to a traditional, multi-vector policy for the region, which, under the stress of escalating conflicts, was transformed into a policy of emphatic non-alignment – a firm rejection of any involvement in the conflict.”

The report notes that the contacts between the European Union and Central Asian states have “have gained a special dynamism” since the start of the Russia-Ukraine war. It also notes that public opinion in the region indicates that a majority of regional residents do not want to get dragged into the confrontation between the West and Russia, which is supported by China. 

The prevailing circumstances have forced Central Asian states to “balance a genuine interest in developing their ties with the Western world while being surrounded by Iran, Afghanistan, China, and Russia, countries with which the West has strained and even tense relations,” the report says.

Maximizing economic multi-vectorism will require some work by Central Asian governments to enhance the predictability of the regional business climate. Vaguely defined trade rules and property rights, along with the unreliability of regional judicial systems, remain big impediments to Western investment. The lack of mechanisms to enforce contracts or resolve corporate disputes also constitutes an investment barrier. In addition to bolstering the independence of the judicial system, the Talap report recommends reforms to regional tax codes to foster more “equitable” business environments. 

“The investment climate in Central Asia reflects a difficult balance between the determination of governments to take advantage of growing interest in the region and the inertia of institutional barriers,” the report states. “To take advantage of these opportunities, the countries of the region have to address existing institutional and regulatory barriers for both domestic and international companies and investors, strengthen the rule of law, enforce fair and open competition, implement business friendly tax regulations, and align trade, customs and logistical standards.”

 

Semiconductor Supply Chain Remains Secure Despite Taiwan Earthquake

  • Taiwan's semiconductor industry quickly recovered after the earthquake, with TSMC and UMC resuming operations.

  • The earthquake had little impact on Taiwan's ports, ensuring a stable supply chain.

  • The global auto sector remains unaffected by the earthquake, as semiconductor production continues uninterrupted.

Reports indicate that the earthquake that struck Taiwan on April 2 is unlikely to create either supply or manufacturing difficulties for Taiwan semiconductors (microchips), which could subsequently impact the auto sector and steel prices.

“I haven’t heard about any impact on the industry due to the earthquake,” one steel trader told MetalMiner. The seismic incident registered 7.2 on the Richter scale. The quake occurred off Taiwan’s east coast near the city of Hualien and claimed 13 lives as well as injuring about 1,100 people.

Taiwan itself produces more than half of the world’s supply of semiconductors.  The global auto sector is also a major end-user of semiconductors, estimated at up to 15% due to the rising integration of electronic systems and features in automobiles.

Operations Restarted Swiftly After Earthquake, Assures Stable Supply Chain

According to an April 3 report from Data Center Dynamics, The Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company (TSMC), one of the largest in the world, temporarily shut down operations and evacuated its plants after the earthquake. However, the South China Morning Post stated on April 4 that TSMC restarted operations the following day. United Microelectronics Corporation also noted that the earthquake triggered automatic safety measures at its production sites in Hsinchu and Tainan in southern Taiwan.

“Currently, operations and wafer shipment are resuming as normal, and there will be no meaningful impact on UMC’s finances and business,” that company said in an April 3 press release. While the port of Hualien suspended operations in the previous week, reports quoting Taiwan’s Maritime and Port Bureau said that other ports on the island experienced little to no damage.

Other Factors Affecting Taiwan Semiconductor Demand

A slower economy and high interest rates from the European Central Bank are just some of the factors suppressing hot rolled coil prices on the continent. MetalMiner’s source said that Mills in northern Europe were offering €650-660 ($705-715) per metric ton EXW as of April 4, down from €700 ($760) in late March. It has yet to be seen how this could impact Taiwan Semiconductor or other chip manufacturing companies.

A March report from the European Automobile Manufacturers’ Association (ACEA) indicated that auto plants within the European Union produced over 12.1 million new units in 2023. This reflects an 11.3% rise year on year from 10.9 million units. The ACEA report also noted that battery electric vehicles comprised 14% of that volume, representing a 37% increase on the year.

By Christopher Rivituso

Tesla Set for Worst Quarterly Results in 7 Years

Tesla is expected to report for the first quarter of 2024 its lowest quarterly profit margins since early 2017 amid a price war in the electric vehicle sector and a slowdown in demand, analysts say.

Elon Musk’s EV manufacturer is set to release its financial results for the first quarter on April 23 and gross margins are expected at their lowest in years, the Financial Times reports.

Dan Levy, an analyst at Barclays, expects Tesla to have also booked “modestly negative” free cash flow, FT notes. This would be the first negative FCF for the EV maker since early 2020.

Tesla already reported early this month a plunge in deliveries for the first quarter.

Tesla’s deliveries slumped in the first quarter for the first annual drop since the start of the pandemic in 2020, missing analyst forecasts by a mile in a sign that even price cuts haven’t been able to stave off an increasingly heated competition on the EV market.

Tesla attributed the lower deliveries to “the early phase of the production ramp of the updated Model 3 at our Fremont factory and factory shutdowns resulting from shipping diversions caused by the Red Sea conflict and an arson attack at Gigafactory Berlin.”

So far this year, Tesla’s shares (NASDAQ: TSLA) have plunged by 41% amid concerns about the company’s future direction in the face of growing competition from legacy automakers and cheap Chinese EV models.

Earlier this month, reports emerged that Tesla was scrapping plans to manufacture a $25,000 EV.

The company has canceled these plans, Reuters reported, citing sources familiar with the matter and company messages it had seen.

Musk responded to a link with the report with a comment on X that “Reuters is lying (again).”

Shortly after this, Musk said that Tesla plans to unveil a Robotaxi on August 8.

Investors and analysts are now looking for clues about a possible change in direction from Tesla from plans for a cheap EV, especially after Musk posted on X last week that “going balls to the wall for autonomy is a blindingly obvious move.”

By Tsvetana Paraskova for Oilprice.com