UK

Locals signal ‘Blair-style majority’ not hung parliament, new analysis finds

Daniel Green   8th May, 2024  

Photo: @Keir_Starmer:

Labour is on course for a “Blair-style majority” following the party’s success at the local elections last week, according to one leading pollster’s analysis of mayoral and police and crime commissioner election results.

Luke Tryl, director of More in Common, dismissed suggestions that the country is heading for a hung parliament at the next general election, after another election expert said council results pointed to a closer race than polls suggest.

Tryl said at a briefing for journalists that while MiC’s best estimates put Labour’s lead closer than some polls that have put the party 25 points ahead, they still remain on course for a majority – on a similar scale to that of 1997.

Their adjusted vote share from the mayoral and Police and Crime Commissioner (PCC) elections, with adjustments for current polling in Scotland, puts Labour on 41% to the Conservatives 29%.

It comes as elections analyst Michael Thrasher suggested that Labour would fall 32 seats short of a majority in the House of Commons after analysing two million votes cast in council elections in England.

Although Tryl suggested that the difference between Labour and Tory support is slightly narrower than polls suggest, he noted that Labour’s vote in the local elections proved to be very efficient, with the party outperforming the national swing in the Northamptonshire PCC race while underperforming in Merseyside. Tryl said that Labour was “doing well in areas where it counts”.

However, Tryl also noted the success of the Green Party in certain areas, particularly in wards that make up the new Bristol Central constituency, being defended by Labour MP and shadow culture secretary Thangam Debbonaire.

MiC’s analysis of the local election result puts Green support in the constituency’s wards at 59% to Labour’s 30%. Green gains, he said, had come as a result of Labour’s realignment to the right, noting that as Labour have captured more Tory areas, they have lost ground to the Greens.

While Tryl said that some Green voters at a local election would move to Labour at a general election, he said he expects the party to double its number of seats in Parliament and that “the Greens are now the favourites in Bristol Central”.

He also raised the possibility of “Green surprises” in some parts of the country, in particular Sheffield and Hastings, where the party did well in elections last week.

However, he said that the Green Party were “not a major threat” to Labour at a general election, noting they would do better in safe Labour seats.

Discussing the performance of independents who made gains from Labour in areas with higher-than-average Muslim populations, primarily because of the situation in Gaza, Tryl said he found it hard to the issue “tipping the result” at seats in the general election.

He said that, to have a significant impact on Labour’s chances of getting the keys to Number 10, Muslim support for Labour would have to be down from around 70% to 30% at the time voters go to the polls.

Polling by JL Partners in the spring put Labour support among Muslim voters at 61%, down around nine percent on the 2019 general election.

LabourList - The latest news and comment on policy, elections, polls and more on Keir Starmer's Labour Party.

Unite union slams ‘watered down’ New Deal for Working People as ‘betrayal’

Daniel Green

8th May, 2024

© Andrew Skudder/CC BY-SA 2.0

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Trade union Unite claims a new Labour document on its New Deal for Working People is a “betrayal’, suggesting the workers’ rights reforms presented are “unrecognisable” from plans originally produced with unions.

Labour has continually denied any recent rowback on its reforms, but Unite leader Sharon Graham claimed the New Deal had now become a “charter for bad bosses”.

The union accused Labour of rowing back on elements of the package, and hit out at a document allegedly issued to trade unions on Monday before they meet leader Keir Starmer next week.

Graham said: “Workers will see through this and mark this retreat after retreat as a betrayal. This new document is turning what was a real new deal for workers into a charter for bad bosses.

“Labour don’t want a law against fire and rehire and they are effectively ripping up the promise of legislation on a new deal for workers in its first 100 days.

“Instead, we have codes of conduct and pledges of consultation with big business. Likewise, the proposal to legislate against zero hours contracts is watered down to almost nothing.

“In truth, this new document is not worthy of discussion. All unions must now demand that Labour changes course and puts the original deal for workers back on the table.”

Labour has faced repeated questions recently about whether the New Deal has been watered down. Sources have confirmed some new materials will be published soon about the proposals, though suggested this was about consolidation and repackaging rather than any substantive changes.

A spokesperson told journalists last week nothing had changed since the National Policy Forum last year – but muiltiple changes were made then. Some are only now attracting significant attention, such as Labour’s acceptance of some zero-hour contracts where workers agree to them.

Labour figures have said recently that they will “bring forward” legislation within 100 days on the New Deal, but not complete legislation on all measures within 100 days.

It is not clear what prompted Graham’s claim that the party does not want to outlaw fire and rehire. One insider told LabourList: “This hasn’t been handled well, but the substance of what was agreed last year is still there and we have gone further on some of the collective stuff. We are definitely still legislating on fire and rehire.”

The party’s final NPF platform pledged to end fire and rehire. It made no mention however of specific plans included in the initial New Deal green paper to legislate to prevent workers being dismissed for failing to agree worse contracts, and ensure union regulations don’t stop unions protecting workers subjected to fire and rehire tactics. But the insider said the tweak did not mean it had been dropped.

It came as Shadow Chancellor Rachel Reeves said that businesses have “nothing to fear” from the party’s plans for workers’ rights in a question-and-answer session with journalists following a speech in the City of London yesterday.

However, she stressed that Labour is “absolutely committed” to delivering the New Deal for Working People “in full”.

Reeves said: “Businesses have got nothing to fear from Labour’s New Deal for Working People. And, of course, we will consult on how to implement these things so that there aren’t any unforeseen, adverse consequences from it.

“But we’re committed to the New Deal for Working People. It’s an important part of our economic offer, both to build a stronger and more resilient economy and to ensure that working people benefit from a growing economy.”

The Labour Party was approached for comment.

LabourList - The latest news and comment on policy, elections, polls and more on Keir Starmer's Labour Party.

SIR KEIR'S RED TORY PARTY

Editorial:Right-winger Elphicke’s defection reveals the ugly face of Starmer’s Labour


Labour leader Keir Starmer with former Conservative MP Natalie Elphicke in his parliamentary office in the House of Commons, London, May 8, 2024


MORNING STAR 

THURSDAY, MAY 9, 2024


NATALIE ELPHICKE’S political reincarnation as a Labour MP is an event that sheds an unforgiving light on Keir Starmer’s Labour Party.

Ms Elphicke, the MP for Dover and Deal, is no “one nation” Tory repelled by the consequences of Conservative policy.

Rather, she has sat on the right-wing edge of the Conservative Party in parliament. She has made her name as an anti-migrant hardliner, until recently attacking Labour for being “too soft” on the issue.

She inherited her Commons seat from her ex-husband Charlie Elphicke after he was charged and then imprisoned for sexual offences. She appeared to blame the victims for her then-husband’s behaviour.

She was then sanctioned by the House of Commons for attempting to put pressure on the judge presiding over Charlie’s case.

She further distinguished herself by abusing England footballer Marcus Rashford over this work to tackle the food poverty for children which has been one deplorable consequence of Tory economic and social policy.

In short, there is nothing whatever to suggest that Labour’s newest MP shares the values of the labour movement, or even of liberal Britain.

Rather, her record is that of a right-wing reprobate — indeed her statement on Wednesday indicated a strong preference for Boris Johnson over Rishi Sunak.

Yet Sir Keir rolled out the red carpet for this right-wing Tory. He welcomed her into a party which expels members for merely “liking” a tweet by a Green politician, or for expressing sympathy with a sick SNP leader.

It is a party which, moreover, has excluded Diane Abbott, Britain’s first black woman MP, from its parliamentary ranks for over a year because of a single ill-judged letter for which she immediately apologised.

A party which offers a home to Elphicke but not to Abbott is, simply, a party which is comfortable with racism.

It is not a party which is serious about tackling the glaring weaknesses in the Labour vote revealed in last week’s local elections.

How will Elphicke assist with Labour’s stated intention of winning back the tens of thousands of voters in the Muslim communities who have abandoned a party they see as not just on the wrong side of history over Gaza but also as acquiescent, to say the least, in Islamophobia?

And what will the Dover MP bring to the effort to convince young people who have voted Green or independent in so many cases to return to Labour? Her presence on the Labour benches sends the strongest possible signal that they are not wanted.

It was perfectly open to Starmer to decline to accept Elphicke’s offer to join Labour. Under those circumstances, perhaps she would have followed former Tory Party deputy chairman Lee Anderson into the Reform Party or sat as an independent.

Of course, her defection is an embarrassment for Sunak and therefore a win in the war of Westminster point-scoring. But with a gargantuan polling lead over the Tories, it is scarcely a win Starmer needs for election victory.

The fact that she wanted to join Labour shows how far the party has turned itself into a repository for right-wing opinion.

And the fact that Labour accepted her suggests that there are no limits to this transformation under its present leadership.

Indeed, a Labour spokesman declined to rule out that an approach from Nigel Farage might be welcomed, far-fetched as that suggestion doubtless is.

It is surely past time that trade union representatives on Labour’s ruling bodies raised a red flag against this process, or even the Red Flag, of equality and socialism, concepts alien to the “Labour” MP for Dover.

Natalie Elphicke: Tory MP who defended sexual predator ex-husband defects to Labour

Natalie Elphicke's defection has reportedly concerned several female members of the Labour party

Jimmy Nsubuga
Updated Wed, 8 May 2024 

Conservative MP Natalie Elphicke has defected to the Labour Party. (Getty)


Tory MP Natalie Elphicke has defected to Labour, criticising Rishi Sunak’s “tired and chaotic government” for the decision.

The MP for Dover said the prime minister had failed to deliver on his promise to stop the boats and also accused him of deserting the political centre ground.

"We need to move on from the broken promises of Rishi Sunak’s tired and chaotic government," Elphicke said in a statement. "The general election cannot come soon enough."


Elphicke is standing down at the general election and denied that Labour had offered her a peerage. However, aides suggested the MP could take on an unpaid role in working on housing policy with Labour.

Elphicke has been a controversial figure - she was suspended for attempting to influence legal proceedings involving her disgraced ex-husband Charlie. Following her defection, the Politico website reported seven female Labour MPs saying they were "uncomfortable" with her joining the party.

Former Conservative MP Charlie Elphicke, with MP for Dover Natalie Elphicke, leaving Southwark Crown Court in London. (Getty)
Suspended for influencing judge

Elphicke was elected as Dover’s Conservative MP in 2019, taking over the seat that had been held by her then-husband Charlie, who was jailed for two years after being found guilty in 2020 of sexually assaulting two women.

Elphicke stood by him during his trial but she said their marriage ended with his conviction. They divorced in 2021.

Following the sentencing, Elphicke admitted her ex-husband was in the wrong but added the sentence was “excessive” and suggested the court had been on “a mission".

She subsequently told the Sun that he had been convicted in a terrible miscarriage of justice", adding: "It was obvious to me from reading the evidence during lockdown that the criminal allegations against him were complete nonsense, and I still believe they are."

She said his "attractiveness" made him an "easy target for dirty politics and false allegations".

Mrs Justice Whipple told Elphicke during his sentencing: “You’re a sexual predator who used your success and respectability as a cover. You required both women to come to court and give evidence about the assaults you had made on them. That was not easy for them and they displayed great courage."

Later, Elphicke, Sir Roger Gale and Theresa Villiers were then suspended for one day from Parliament for attempting to influence legal proceedings involving her former husband.

They were among five Conservative MPs who sought to interfere in a decision regarding Elphicke.

They wrote to senior members of the judiciary using House of Commons-provided stationery, expressing their concern about a more junior judge potentially publishing pre-sentencing character references related to Elphicke.

The Committee on Standards concluded that the letters were an "attempt improperly to influence judicial proceedings".

Labour leader Sir Keir Starmer with former Conservative MP Natalie Elphicke in his parliamentary office. (Getty)

Rwanda policy

Elphicke has been an ardent supporter of the Rwanda Act, which Labour has said it will repeal.

A year ago, she used a newspaper column to claim “not only have Labour got no plan of their own to tackle illegal immigration, they simply do not want to” and said Starmer “has pledged to rip up our world-leading partnership to remove illegal migrants to Rwanda”.

The MP also wrote an article labelling Starmer “Sir Softie” and saying he could not be trusted on immigration.

Asked about her previous criticism of Labour over immigration policy, she said Sunak “was the man who said he would stop the boats” but so far this year there had been “record numbers of small boats arrivals”.

She added: “So, he’s not stopping the boats and he’s letting the country down.

“Meanwhile under Labour, they are clear that it is important to have defence and they want to make sure that they have good national security. So I think we should have confidence that Labour are the party who will tackle this issue of the small boats crossings.”

Marcus Rashford reacts after missing a penalty during the EURO 2020 final vs Italy. (Getty)
Criticising Marcus Rashford

Elphicke previously courted controversy when she engaged in a public spat with England striker Marcus Rashford, suggesting the footballer should have spent more time “perfecting his game” than “playing politics” after he missed a penalty in the Euro 2020 final.

Rashford ran a high-profile campaign to persuade the government to provide free meals to vulnerable youngsters throughout the school holidays during the coronavirus pandemic.

Elphicke apologised, but shadow chancellor Rachel Reeves, her new colleague, was so incensed by her comment she said the then-Tory MP should “f*** off”.

In her apology, she said: "Last night I shared the frustration and heartbreak of millions of other England fans.

"I regret messaging privately a rash reaction about Marcus Rashford's missed penalty and apologise to him for any suggestion that he is not fully focused on his football."

England lost the final to Italy on penalties.

Natalie Elphicke: MP critical of Rwanda plan who gained seat after husband’s sexual assault charges

Nick Gutteridge

THE (TORY) TELEGRAPH

Wed, 8 May 2024 

Keir Starmer and Natalie Elphicke in the House of Commons - Stefan Rousseau/PA


The first the world knew of Natalie Elphicke’s defection to Labour was when she sidled into the Commons chamber moments before PMQs began and perched herself on the green benches directly behind Sir Keir Starmer.

It was both an understated and yet an explosive way for the Dover MP, never one to shy away from the limelight, to announce that she was becoming the second Tory backbencher in a fortnight to switch their allegiance.

Minutes later, the Labour press office whirred into life, churning out a 498-word statement from the party’s newest recruit which contained attack line after attack line on Rishi Sunak, the Prime Minister, and his record in Downing Street.

The shock on the Conservative benches was clear as Sir Keir revelled in the moment, pointing out the Prime Minister had “lost two Tory MPs in two weeks” following the defection of Dr Dan Poulter on Sunday April 28.

Ms Elphicke’s decision will come as an enormous blow to No 10, not least because of all the Tories who may be tempted by Labour she was a most unlikely candidate.

Generally thought of as on the Right of the Conservatives, she was a Boris Johnson supporter who made her disdain for Mr Sunak clear in her parting shot.

She said he had “ousted” the former prime minister in a “coup”, adding that under him the “Conservatives have become a byword for incompetence and division”.

But it is her attacks on his record, and especially her favouring of Labour’s approach to tackling illegal migration, that will cut particularly deep for Mr Sunak.

The Dover MP was first elected in Boris Johnson’s landslide 2019 election victory, taking over a seat which had previously been held by her then husband, Charlie Elphicke.

He had stood down as the Tory candidate a month before after facing allegations that he had sexually assaulted two women in incidents almost a decade apart.

Ms Elphicke was swiftly anointed as his successor in an uncontested selection process that caused some consternation amongst local members.

In her maiden Commons speech, on January 20 2020, she praised her then husband for his willingness to “engage in hand-to-hand political combat” whilst an MP.

In July 2020, Mr Elphicke was convicted on three counts of sexual assault, and a month later Ms Elphicke announced in a newspaper interview that they were divorcing.

Charlie Elphicke was convicted on three counts of sexual assault - JULIAN SIMMONDS

She quickly got into her stride in the Commons and became known for her outspoken interventions on illegal migration and Brexit border checks.

In recent weeks she had become increasingly vocal in her criticism of the Government on both counts, paving the way for her shock defection to Labour.

A long-standing critic of the Rwanda plan, which she has argued will not work, she advocated for the Government to instead pursue a returns agreement with France.

In a speech to the Commons last December, she said: “We must turn to diplomacy once again, with a cross-channel agreement to return people to France rather than Rwanda.”

Her stance meant that she was always more likely to favour the approach taken by Sir Keir, who has said he will seek to secure a new returns agreement with the EU.

Yet she was previously scathing of his approach, writing in a July 2023 column that while the Tories were trying to stop the boats “Labour politicians oppose, oppose and oppose”.
Critic of post-Brexit border checks

In recent months she has also criticised the Government’s approach to introducing new post-Brexit border checks that will affect the Port of Dover.

Last month, she laid into Sir Mark Spencer, the farming minister, over the “slashing” of funding for the port’s facilities which carry out health controls on goods arriving from Europe.

Once again she may have proved more tempted by Labour’s proposals, which include a new agri-food deal with the EU that would reduce red tape on food imports.

Ms Elphicke, a former lawyer who specialised in housing, has also been an outspoken critic of what she said was the Tories’ failure to build enough new homes.

Having grown up in a council house herself, she championed higher quality social homes and was awarded an OBE for services to housing in 2015.

As an MP she backed the Government’s plans, which were blocked by Labour, to repeal EU rules on water pollution that are blocking 150,000 new homes.

Within an hour of her defection her former Tory colleagues were posting quotes on social media where she had attacked Sir Keir and his policies.

And while she was welcomed to the Labour benches to raucous cheers from MPs, Ms Elphicke may find her landing with the party’s Left-wing base is more bumpy.

Could Keir Starmer's Decision To Welcome Natalie Elphicke From The Tories Backfire? (Huffpost)


Tory Dover MP Natalie Elphicke statement in full as she defects to Labour (Kent Live)


Party defections which have taken place during the current Parliament (PA)

Natalie Elphicke: Who is the former Tory MP who defected to Labour?

By Jennifer McKiernan,Political reporter

BBC


Defecting MP Natalie Elphicke : Tories under Sunak have broken many election promises

Natalie Elphicke is the second Conservative MP to defect to Labour in two weeks.

The move came as even bigger surprise than Dan Poulter's defection, as unlike him she was seen as being on the right of the Conservative Party.

She supported Liz Truss in the 2022 Tory leadership contest and had been a harsh critic of Sir Keir Starmer's stance on immigration.

But the Dover MP is no fan of Prime Minister Rishi Sunak, blaming him for ousting Boris Johnson, "the elected prime minister", in a "coup" in a statement announcing her defection to Labour


"For me key deciding factors have been housing and the safety and security of our borders," she says of her decision to defect.


Mrs Elphicke was elected as Dover's Conservative MP in 2019, taking over the seat which had been held by her disgraced, then-husband Charlie, who was jailed for two years after being found guilty in 2020 of sexually assaulting two women.


She was given the candidacy days before she was first elected in 2019, following a career as a housing and finance lawyer.

Follow live: Tory MP defects to Labour at PMQs
The inside story of Tory MP's defection to Labour
Tory MP Natalie Elphicke defects to Labour
Chris Mason: Another wounding Tory defection

On becoming the first female MP for Dover, she joined the pro-Brexit European Research Group (ERG) of MPs and repeatedly criticised Labour for being soft on migration and untrustworthy on Brexit and running the economy.

With her constituency covering the UK's main port, Mrs Elphicke was vocal about border security and regularly called for more hardline immigration policies.


Writing in the Daily Express in April last year, she accused Labour of wanting open borders and claimed their plans were "dangerous" as the left routes open for suspected terrorists to stay in the UK.


But she has called for a deal to return immigrants crossing the Channel in small boats to France rather than the Rwanda plan, which is in line with Labour's policy.


She has also called for a rent freeze - a popular policy on the Labour left - and was behind a cross-party project to build houses for homeless people.


She was also a big critic of P&O's decision to slash pay rates, but she was heckled by P&O workers about her government's actions when she turned up to a rally in support of 800 workers sacked without notice.



A taste of Natalie Elphicke's previous attacks on the Labour Party:
"This morning I and Conservative colleagues met the PM at No 10 where he set out his determination to Stop the Boats. Meanwhile Labour say taxpayers should pay asylum seekers nearly £20,000 a year - and also give them legal aid to launch endless appeals." (April '23)
"At PMQs today a very muddled and confused performance by Labour leader Sir Keir Starmer. A strong reminder that all the opposition offer is a Lib/Lab/SNP coalition of chaos that would take our country backwards on Brexit and break up the United Kingdom" (June '22)
"If Labour's only policy is to rely on the French, then they are not serious about stopping small boats, tackling criminality, protecting people from the smuggling gangs or saving lives in the Channel." (Sept '22)
"Labour's solution to tackle the cost of living? Grabbing more in taxes fro


In 2020, she got into a spat with footballer Marcus Rashford, who forced the Tories to U-turn on their stance against free school meals during the holidays in a high-profile campaign.

Following England crashing out of the Euro 2020 finals, she apologised after suggesting he should have spent more time "perfecting his game" rather than "playing politics".

She is the vice chair of the All Party Parliamentary Group (APPG) on Ports and has also been a ministerial aide for defence, housing and health and in 2015 was awarded an OBE in the Queen's Birthday Honours for her services to housing. 

Mrs Elphicke grew up in Kent, studied at the University of Kent at Canterbury, and spent 20 years as a lawyer.

She had robustly defended her now ex-husband throughout the trial as well as following his conviction.

After his conviction, she gave an interview saying the allegations were "false" and he had been punished for being "charming, wealthy, charismatic and successful". She also told the BBC she thought the sentence was "excessive" and criticised the court as being "on a bit of a mission".

Mrs Elphicke was one of five senior Tory MPs who improperly tried to influence the trial judge, which the Commons standards committee later described as "egregious behaviour" that was "corrosive to the rule of law".

Admitting Elphicke leaves some in Labour asking how far Starmer will go

Pippa Crerar Political editor

THE GUARDIAN
Wed, 8 May 2024 

The only people more shocked and upset than the Conservatives about Elphicke’s move were Labour MPs.Photograph: Stefan Rousseau/PA


The look on Penny Mordaunt’s face was one of disbelief as she watched Natalie Elphicke, the Tory MP for Dover, take her seat for prime minister’s questions just behind Keir Starmer on the Labour benches.

After a few moments, the Commons leader got up from the frontbench and crept along to where Rishi Sunak was waiting beside the speaker’s chair, whispering urgently in his ear to prepare him for the unwelcome surprise.

Senior ministers weren’t the only ones taken aback by the news of Elphicke’s defection. The Tory MP Steve Baker, once known as the “hard man of Brexit”, said a colleague had joked: “I didn’t realise there was any room to her right.”


Stephen Hammond, a Tory MP who has known Elphicke for more than 20 years, said: “If there’s been someone who has done as much as anyone to drag my party away from the centre ground of British politics in the last five years, it’s been Natalie.”

One No 10 insider said when they heard Elphicke was about to jump ship, they had assumed it would be to follow fellow hardliner Lee Anderson to the Reform party.

The only people more shocked and upset than the Conservatives about Elphicke’s move were Labour MPs. Sources told the Guardian that Starmer himself was challenged about the decision at a parliamentary meeting just after PMQs.

“I’m a great believer in the powers of conversion,” the leftwinger John McDonnell told LBC. “But I think even this one would have strained the generosity of spirit of John the Baptist, quite honestly.”

But it wasn’t just leftwingers taken aback by the decision to welcome one of the most controversial Tory MPs, who had until recently been a fierce critic of Starmer’s migration policy, on to their benches.

“Her hard right views are a big red line. Are we welcoming Nigel Farage next week?” one shadow minister pondered. Asked the same question, Starmer’s spokesperson told reporters: “We have conversations with all sorts of people who want to come and support the party.”

Female Labour MPs were particularly distressed by Elphicke joining their ranks due to her past comments about her ex-husband’s conviction for sexual assault in 2020. There were suggestions that at least one woman has written to complain to the party’s chief whip.

One shadow minister attempted to defend the decision. “We’ve got to get out of our comfort zone and win over Tory voters if we’re going to win the election,” they said, before conceding that MPs across the party were unhappy.

Starmer’s team, however, believe the defection will show voters who backed the Tories in 2019 that if Labour can attract an MP like Elphicke, who was hardline on Brexit and immigration, the party has changed.

Starmer is expected to join Elphicke in Dover, a seat Labour was hoping to take at the election anyway, later this week to drive home the narrative the party can win in all parts of the country, even the south of England.

Elphicke’s defection, the second in the past two weeks after the former Tory MP Dan Poulter crossed the floor and blasted the government’s record on the NHS, prompted immediate speculation that more could be on the cards.

It is clearly yet another blow to Sunak, after a disastrous set of local election results, which Labour strategists think shows the Tories are a “sinking ship” with little chance of recovery before the general election.

But for all the political advantage Starmer’s aides believe Elphicke’s move brings, it has left many on his own side uneasy about the lengths to which he is prepared to go.

While that is unlikely to seriously impede Labour’s path to power, it could sour it. Yet for a leadership team so ruthlessly focused on winning, that is a sacrifice they are willing to make.

Blow to Sunak as Natalie Elphicke defects to Labour

David Maddox and Archie Mitchell
Wed, 8 May 2024 


Rishi Sunak has suffered another humiliating blow as Dover MP Natalie Elphicke defected to Labour moments before PMQs.

Ms Elphicke has joined Dr Dan Poulter and Christian Wakeford in crossing the floor.

The move is a shock from an MP who had been part of the rightwing Common Sense Group but whose seat was set to be lost to Labour according to the polls.

The announcement saw Kent’s preniously only Labour MP Rosie Duffileld, who has been repeatedly snubbed by Sir Keir Starmer over her views on trans issues, put out a sarcastic tweet: “At least one woman from Kent got a meeting.”

Sir Keir Starmer, who held talks with Ms Elphicke in the run up to the defection, welcomed his new MP at the start of prime minister’s questions (PMQs) in a rowdy session in the Commons.

Natalie Elphicke has defected to Labour from the Tories (David Woolfall/UK Parliament) (PA Media)

Rightwing Tories made it clear they feel betrayed by Natalie Elphicke who was seen as one of their wing of the party.

Dame Andrea Jenkyns, a Boris Johnson supporter, tweeted: “Natalie Elphicke you were a centre right Conservative, Labour want to give asylum to 50,000 plus people. I thought you had more conviction than to join the lefty labour lot you despised so much!”

She attached an article from Ms Elphicke saying Labour “can’t be trusted” on immigration in which she called Starmer “Sir Softie”.

No 10 also hit back. The prime minister’s press secretary said the Dover MP had to “explain why she believes Labour do have a plan given she has spent the last two years attacking their lack of a plan (on small boats)”. And Labour MPs were furious at the decision, with one reportedly having broken into tears at the news of the defection.

But in a statement, Ms Elphicke appeared to suggest that part of her reason to switch to Labour was the ousting of Boris Johnson.

She said: “When I was elected in 2019, the Conservative Party occupied the centre ground of British politics. The party was about building the future and making the most of the opportunities that lay ahead for our country.

“Since then, many things have changed. The elected prime minister was ousted in a coup led by the unelected Rishi Sunak. Under Rishi Sunak, the Conservatives have become a byword for incompetence and division. The centre ground has been abandoned and key pledges of the 2019 manifesto have been ditched.”

@NatalieElphicke you were a centre right Conservative, Labour want to give asylum to 50,000 plus people. I thought you had more conviction than to join the lefty labour lot you despised so much! pic.twitter.com/lG5jGhJWFz

— Andrea Jenkyns MP 🇬🇧 (@andreajenkyns) May 8, 2024

Ms Elphicke went on: “Meanwhile the Labour Party has changed out of all recognition. Since 2019, it has moved on from Jeremy Corbyn and now, under Keir Starmer, occupies the centre ground of British politics. It has accepted Brexit and its economic policies and defence policies are responsible and can be trusted.

“Most significantly for me, the modern Labour Party looks to the future – to building a Britain of hope, optimism, opportunity and fairness. A Britain everyone can be part of.

“I have carefully considered this decision. The change has been dramatic and cannot be ignored. For me key deciding factors have been housing and the safety and security of our borders.” She has not been offered a seat by Labour, Sir Keir’s official spokesman said, but is able to apply for selection if one comes up. She has denied being offered a peerage by the party.

The Dover MP, who replaced her husband Charlie after he was forced to step down as an MP, listed what she considers to be a number of failures by the governent.

“From small boats to biosecurity, Rishi Sunak’s government is failing to keep our borders safe and secure. Lives are being lost in the English Channel while small boat arrivals are once again at record levels. It’s clear they have failed to keep our borders secure and cannot be trusted.

“On housing, Rishi Sunak’s Government is now failing to build the homes we need. Last year saw the largest fall of new housing starts in England in a single year since the credit crunch. The manifesto committed to 300,000 homes next year – but only around half that number are now set to be built. Renters and leaseholders have been betrayed as manifesto pledges to end no fault evictions and abolish ground rents have not been delivered as promised.

“The last couple of years have also seen a huge rise in homelessness, in temporary accommodation and rough sleeping - with record numbers of children now in temporary accommodation, without a secure roof over their head.

“Meanwhile Labour plan to build the homes we need, help young people onto the housing ladder and care about the vulnerable and homeless. That’s why I’m honoured to have been asked to work with Keir and the team to help deliver the homes we need.”

Sunak hit by defection of MP Elphicke over small boats and housing crisis

David Hughes, PA Political Editor
Wed, 8 May 2024 

Rishi Sunak has been dealt a fresh blow after Tory MP Natalie Elphicke defected to Labour, hitting out at his “tired and chaotic government”.

The MP for Dover said the Prime Minister had failed to deliver on his promise to stop the boats and also accused him of deserting the political centre ground.

She crossed the floor in the Commons just moments before Prime Minister’s Questions and sat behind Sir Keir Starmer, who hailed her defection as another indication of how he had changed the Labour Party.

“From small boats to biosecurity, Rishi Sunak’s government is failing to keep our borders safe and secure,” she said.

Labour leader Sir Keir Starmer with former Conservative MP Natalie Elphicke in his parliamentary office (Stefan Rousseau/PA)

“Lives are being lost in the English Channel while small boat arrivals are once again at record levels.

“It’s clear they have failed to keep our borders secure and cannot be trusted.”

Ms Elphicke said the “key deciding factors” in her defection were housing issues and “the safety and security of our borders”.

Speaking to reporters in Sir Keir’s parliamentary office after Prime Minister’s Questions, she said: “In 2019, the Conservatives stood on a manifesto that was very much centre ground, but under Rishi Sunak they’ve abandoned the centre ground and broken many election promises.

“Meanwhile, under Keir Starmer, Labour have changed. And I think that change is going to bring a much better future for our country, and that’s why I was so keen to join the Labour Party and play my part in bringing that important future forward.”

(PA Graphics)

A year ago, Ms Elphicke used a newspaper column to claim “not only have Labour got no plan of their own to tackle illegal immigration, they simply do not want to” and said Sir Keir “has pledged to rip up our world-leading partnership to remove illegal migrants to Rwanda”.

Asked about her previous criticism of Labour over immigration policy, she said Mr Sunak “was the man who said he would stop the boats” but so far this year there had been “record numbers of small boats arrivals”.

“So, he’s not stopping the boats and he’s letting the country down.

Former Tory MP Natalie Elphicke sitting with other Labour MPs (second row, second left, directly behind Angela Rayner) at Prime Minister’s Questions (House of Commons/UK Parliament/PA)

“Meanwhile under Labour, they are clear that it is important to have defence and they want to make sure that they have good national security. So I think we should have confidence that Labour are the party who will tackle this issue of the small boats crossings.”

Ms Elphicke is standing down at the general election and denied that she had been offered a peerage by Labour.

The MP could take on an unpaid role working on housing policy with Labour, aides suggested.

Sir Keir urged Tory voters to follow Natalie Elphicke to his party and dodged a question about whether Labour was in talks with other Conservative MPs.

Asked if there could be more defections, he said: “I think there are very many Tory voters who genuinely feel that the party that they may have voted for – many, many times in some cases – is no longer the Tory Party that they see.

“And I say to every Tory voter who feels that they want to be part of a national mission to change our country for the better that the project we’ve built here in this changed Labour Party is a project that I hope they would feel they could get behind. “

The defection comes after MP Dan Poulter’s decision to leave the Tories for Labour in April and the dismal local election results for the Conservatives last week.

At Prime Minister’s Questions, Labour leader Sir Keir Starmer asked Mr Sunak “what is the point of this failed Government staggering on” when “the Tory MP for Dover on the front line of small boats crisis says the Prime Minister cannot be trusted with our borders and joins Labour?”

Ms Elphicke was elected as Dover’s Conservative MP in 2019, taking over the seat which had been held by her disgraced then-husband Charlie, who was jailed for two years after being found guilty in 2020 of sexually assaulting two women.

She stood by him during his trial but she said their marriage ended with his conviction.

Government minister Huw Merriman said he is “absolutely staggered” over Ms Elphicke’s “shameless” defection to Labour.

The rail minister told BBC News: “I’m absolutely staggered – I’ve seen some sights in this place, but actually the lack of scruples on this one is a new bar that Natalie has created.”

He added: “She is just being opportunist, I’m afraid to say, and I’m just disappointed for politics that she’s done what she’s done today.”

A Conservative member of Dover District Council described the defection as a “kick in the guts”.

Councillor Stephen Manion, who represents Eastry Rural, said he was “sickened” by Natalie Elphicke’s decision to cross the floor.

Former Conservative MP Charlie Elphicke, with MP for Dover Natalie Elphicke, leaving Southwark Crown Court during his trial (Dominic Lipinski/PA)

Tory former minister Stephen Hammond said “one of the reasons why I’m so surprised is that she’s always been on the right of the Conservative Party”.

He told Sky News: “If there’s been someone who has done as much as anyone to drag my party away from the centre ground of British politics in the last five years, it’s been Natalie.

“When you defect you are disliked by your old party and distrusted by your new, and she’ll find that out fairly quickly.”

Downing Street insisted Mr Sunak would not change course over his immigration policies in the wake of the Dover MP’s defection.

The Prime Minister’s press secretary brushed off questions on whether Mr Sunak is concerned about the second defection in recent weeks, saying he is focused on “the priorities of the British people”.

The press secretary said she hoped Ms Elphicke would explain why she changed her mind after being “very forthright in attacking ‘Sir Softie’ Starmer” and “Labour’s open-borders policy”.

SNP Westminster leader Stephen Flynn highlighted a social media post from Ms Elphicke urging Tory members to vote for Liz Truss during the 2022 leadership campaign.

“Meet Natalie, the new Labour MP,” he said. “What does this say to their values?”

Natalie Elphicke’s statement in full as Tory MP defects to Labour

Tom Barnes
Wed, 8 May 2024 

Tory MP Natalie Elphicke has defected to Labour, hitting out at the “broken promises of Rishi Sunak’s tired and chaotic Government”.

The Dover MP crossed the floor in the Commons just moments before Prime Minister’s Questions on Wednesday.

Here is the statement she released in full following her defection:

“When I was elected in 2019, the Conservative Party occupied the centre ground of British politics. The party was about building the future and making the most of the opportunities that lay ahead for our country.

“Since then, many things have changed. The elected Prime Minister was ousted in a coup led by the unelected Rishi Sunak. Under Rishi Sunak, the Conservatives have become a byword for incompetence and division. The centre ground has been abandoned and key pledges of the 2019 manifesto have been ditched.

“Meanwhile the Labour Party has changed out of all recognition. Since 2019, it has moved on from Jeremy Corbyn and now, under Keir Starmer, occupies the centre ground of British politics. It has accepted Brexit and its economic policies and defence policies are responsible and can be trusted.

“Most significantly for me, the modern Labour Party looks to the future - to building a Britain of hope, optimism, opportunity and fairness. A Britain everyone can be part of.

“I have carefully considered this decision. The change has been dramatic and cannot be ignored. For me key deciding factors have been housing and the safety and security of our borders.

Natalie Elphicke with then-Home Office minister Robert Jenrick during a visit to meet residents in Dover in November 2022 (PA Wire)

“From small boats to biosecurity, Rishi Sunak’s government is failing to keep our borders safe and secure. Lives are being lost in the English Channel while small boat arrivals are once again at record levels. It’s clear they have failed to keep our borders secure and cannot be trusted.

“On housing, Rishi Sunak’s Government is now failing to build the homes we need. Last year saw the largest fall of new housing starts in England in a single year since the credit crunch. The manifesto committed to 300,000 homes next year - but only around half that number are now set to be built. Renters and leaseholders have been betrayed as manifesto pledges to end no-fault evictions and abolish ground rents have not been delivered as promised.

“The last couple of years have also seen a huge rise in homelessness, in temporary accommodation and rough sleeping - with record numbers of children now in temporary accommodation, without a secure roof over their head.

“Meanwhile Labour plan to build the homes we need, help young people onto the housing ladder and care about the vulnerable and homeless. That’s why I’m honoured to have been asked to work with Keir and the team to help deliver the homes we need.

“We need to move on from the broken promises of Rishi Sunak’s tired and chaotic Government. Britain needs a Government that will build a future of hope, optimism, opportunity and fairness. A Britain everyone can be part of, that will make the most of the opportunities that lie ahead. That’s why it’s time for change. Time for a Labour government led by Keir Starmer. The general election cannot come soon enough.”

Natalie Elphicke, who has defected from the Conservative Party to Labour, released the following statement: “Today I announce that I have decided to join the Labour Party and that I will sit in Parliament as a Labour MP.

Read Tory MP Natalie Elphicke’s defection statement as backlash grows

Tom Belger      8th May, 2024

Natalie Elphicke.

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Tory MP for Dover and Deal Natalie Elphicke has announced she is quitting the Conservative party and joining Labour.

It will be seen by many as a significant coup for Labour leader Keir Starmer, coming less than a fortnight after another Tory MP, Dan Poulter, also crossed the floor. A Tory MP told The Times it was a “massive whips’ failure”.

The decision has sparked criticism on the left though, with The Mirror‘s Kevin Maguire asking if it is a “defection too far”,  and left campaign groups and even some shadow ministers reportedly slamming the decision to admit Elphicke given the  series of controversial stances she has taken on multiple issues from immigration and sexual assault to climate and Marcus Rashford.

Labour’s current Dover and Deal candidate Mike Tapp will remain in place, with Elphicke standing down come the election, LabourList understands.

Tapp said: “Only the Labour Party under Keir Starmer, with Yvette Cooper, will secure the borders. It’s one of the reasons so many former Conservatives are coming to Labour.”

Elphicke issued a statement through Labour officials just before Prime Minister’s Questions to inflict maximum political damage. Shen then sat behind Starmer at PMQs. It reads:

“Today I announce that I have decided to join the Labour Party and that I will sit in Parliament as a Labour MP.

“When I was elected in 2019, the Conservative Party occupied the centre ground of British politics. The party was about building the future and making the most of the opportunities that lay ahead for our country.

“Since then, many things have changed. The elected Prime Minister was ousted in a coup led by the unelected Rishi Sunak. Under Rishi Sunak, the Conservatives have become a byword for incompetence and division. The centre ground has been abandoned and key pledges of the 2019 manifesto have been ditched.

“Meanwhile the Labour Party has changed out of all recognition. Since 2019, it has moved on from Jeremy Corbyn and now, under Keir Starmer, occupies the centre ground of British politics. It has accepted Brexit and its economic policies and defence policies are responsible and can be trusted.

“Most significantly for me, the modern Labour Party looks to the future – to building a Britain of hope, optimism, opportunity and fairness. A Britain everyone can be part of.

“I have carefully considered this decision. The change has been dramatic and cannot be ignored. For me key deciding factors have been housing and the safety and security of our borders.

“From small boats to biosecurity, Rishi Sunak’s government is failing to keep our borders safe and secure. Lives are being lost in the English Channel while small boat arrivals are once again at record levels. It’s clear they have failed to keep our borders secure and cannot be trusted.

“On housing, Rishi Sunak’s Government is now failing to build the homes we need. Last year saw the largest fall of new housing starts in England in a single year since the credit crunch. The manifesto committed to 300,000 homes next year – but only around half that number are now set to be built. Renters and leaseholders have been betrayed as manifesto pledges to end no fault evictions and abolish ground rents have not been delivered as promised.

“The last couple of years have also seen a huge rise in homelessness, in temporary accommodation and rough sleeping – with record numbers of children now in temporary accommodation, without a secure roof over their head.

“Meanwhile Labour plan to build the homes we need, help young people onto the housing ladder and care about the vulnerable and homeless. That’s why I’m honoured to have been asked to work with Keir and the team to help deliver the homes we need.

“We need to move on from the broken promises of Rishi Sunak’s tired and chaotic Government. Britain needs a Government that will build a future of hope, optimism, opportunity and fairness. A Britain everyone can be part of, that will make the most of the opportunities that lie ahead. That’s why it’s time for change. Time for a Labour Government led by Keir Starmer. The General Election cannot come soon enough.”

Politics professor Tim Bale posted on X: “Not sure anyone saw THAT coming – though goodness only knows what it means for Labour’s stance on small boats/migrants.”

Tory MP Steve Baker said: “I have been searching in vain for a Conservative MP who thinks themself to the right of Natalie Elphicke.”

One shadow minister told Politico people like Elphicke should not be welcomed into Labour, adding: “She has views that would be welcome in Reform.”

Jenny Symmons, a Labour staffer and chair of the GMB branch for members’ staff, described the defection as “really, really poor and disappointing,” also telling Politico: “Labour has welcomed her in … without seemingly having standards you have to meet to represent the party.” Symmons said she had written to the chief whip requesting a meeting about the vetting of people wishing to become Labour MPs.

A spokesperson for Compass said: “Labour has taken a hard-line approach to policing its own boundaries on the left, but appears to have no qualms about letting former Tories who clearly don’t share its values from joining up. This is a one-sided pluralism that corrodes trust in our politics.”

A spokesperson for Momentum said “this hard-right Tory should have no place in a Labour Party worthy of the name”, adding: “It speaks volumes about Keir Starmer that he is welcoming her with open arms, while leaving Diane Abbott out in the cold.”

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I’m too left wing for Sir Keir Starmer’s Labour, jokes Tory Commons Leader Penny Mordaunt

The Commons Leader also compared Sir Keir to a crab that selects ‘sedentary creatures and seaweed’ to help ‘disguise its true form’.

COMMONS LEADER PENNY MORDAUNT MOCKING NATALIE ELPHICKE’S DEFECTION TO LABOUR


RICHARD WHEELER

Penny Mordaunt joked she is “too left wing” for Labour, as she insisted Tory hopes of retaining Dover were “slightly improved” by Natalie Elphicke’s defection.

The Commons Leader said it was a “personal tragedy” for Ms Elphicke to switch from the Government benches to Labour just moments before Prime Minister’s Questions, although she claimed it also exposed a “pattern of behaviour” from Sir Keir Starmer.

She compared the Labour leader to a crab that selects “sedentary creatures and seaweed” to help “disguise its true form”, as she accused him of running “Operation Radish” in a bid to appear “red on the outside” to voters.

The leader of the Opposition is the decorator crab of these benches, desperate to show that he's not really leading the Labour Party at all

           PENNY MORDAUNT


In a typically punchy Commons response to her Labour counterpart, Ms Mordaunt concluded: “The British people can see what is going on: they like their radishes in salads, not Number 10.”

Ms Mordaunt later joked: “I am not about to defect to the opposition benches. They wouldn’t be interested in me, I’m too left wing.”

Shadow Commons leader Lucy Powell had earlier welcomed Chris Webb to the Labour benches following his by-election victory in Blackpool South before welcoming the two Tory defectors, which also included former minister Dr Dan Poulter (Central Suffolk and North Ipswich).

To laughter, she said: “Our reach into previously undiscovered support is really much broader and deeper than I ever imagined.”

Ms Powell said she understood Tory MPs had been given a briefing about “how they didn’t really lose the local elections after all”, adding: “Perhaps we could have a debate on what the local election results are telling us; it might help inject a bit of reality into their thinking because you can’t cure something if you’re in complete denial about it.”
The Labour frontbencher said Prime Minister Rishi Sunak has his “fingers in his ears” and is “ploughing on as if everything is fine”, telling MPs: “People are crying out for change.

“But the only thing that doesn’t seem to ever change is that every time he faces the electorate he loses. That’s not going to change, is it?”

Ms Mordaunt, in a nod to criticism among the Labour movement over Ms Elphicke’s defection, said: “I do hope the honourable member for Dover is being made to feel very welcome indeed in her new party.

“Whilst I’m buoyed up at the news that our odds on retaining Dover have actually slightly improved since yesterday – true – I think it is a personal tragedy for the honourable lady for Dover, as it was for the honourable member for Central Suffolk last week.

“But what it has exposed is a pattern of behaviour from the leader of the Opposition. It is a shame we are not due an update to Peter Brookes’ Nature Notes, for the decorator crab is a species which covers its surface area with materials to disguise its true form, usually selecting sedentary creatures and seaweed.

“The leader of the Opposition is the decorator crab of these benches, desperate to show that he’s not really leading the Labour Party at all.
“He’s channelled Margaret Thatcher, his deputy has praised Boris (Johnson), he’s expelled the Member for Islington North (Jeremy Corbyn) with great fanfare – a man he was campaigning to be prime minister only moments befo

“His exterior shell is stuck over with St George’s flags, his Gunners season ticket and several programmes from the Last Night of the Proms. What next: a photo op with a bulldog? A lecture on how misunderstood Enoch Powell was? Should I ask the whip on duty on the front bench if he has checked in recently with the honourable member for Rayleigh and Wickford (Mark Francois)?

“This is Operation Radish: the concerted effort to convince the British public that while the Labour Party might look red on the outside, at its heart it isn’t really at all.

“However, even the defection from our benches of one Labour’s most sternest critics cannot disguise the fact that Operation Radish is not going well.”

Ms Mordaunt said newly-elected Labour mayors had opted to raise issues connected to Israel and Gaza rather than local matters, adding: “The politics of the PLP (parliamentary Labour Party) is more the politics of the PLO (Palestine Liberation Organisation)”.