Could Memphis handle a massive earthquake, and how likely is one? What the experts say

John Klyce, Memphis Commercial Appeal
Updated Wed, May 15, 2024 

A 3D printed model, created by Dr. Christodoulos Kyriakopoulos with the University of Memphis’ Center for Earthquake Research and Information, demonstrates where the Axial Fault is during the New Madrid 1812 earthquake on Thursday, May 02 2024 at 3890 Central Avenue in Memphis, Tenn.

From Dec. 16, 1811, to Feb. 7, 1812, three major earthquakes violently shook part of the central United States. Trees bent and snapped. Sand blows erupted. Chimneys toppled and cabins collapsed. Crashing waves tormented boats on the Mississippi River, which appeared to run backward. A swath of marshes became the 15,000-acre Reelfoot Lake.

The earthquakes were so powerful they were felt in South Carolina, in Connecticut, and at the White House by President James Madison, who wrote in a Feb. 7 letter to Thomas Jefferson that “the re-iteration of earthquakes continues the uproar from certain quarters.”

Madison, however, didn’t have to worry about overseeing a widespread emergency response. The earthquakes were caused by the three faults in the New Madrid Seismic Zone, a chunk of the central U.S. that was sparsely populated. Where there were settlements, there was damage; but the area was still considered the frontier and contained no large cities.


But as time passed, more people ventured into the area. In 1819, seven years after the last of the giant earthquakes, Memphis was founded, just 40 miles away from one of the three New Madrid faults. Its population grew, along with the populations of other nearby towns. They constructed homes, hospitals, restaurants, and hotels. They constructed towers visible from the sky.

And if earthquakes like the ones from 1811 and 1812 were ever again felt in the seismic zone, there would be no shortage of opportunities for destruction.

Memphis is near a major fault: Here's what experts say you can do to prepare for an earthquake
Will there be another major earthquake?

It’s no secret that Memphis is close to a major fault, and if you've lived here long enough, you've probably heard the theory that repeats of the 1811-12 earthquakes could devastate the city.

In 2008, a project funded by the Federal Emergency Management Agency simulated worse-case scenarios for the Central U.S. if there were earthquakes of a similar magnitude, and the results were startling. The number of casualties in Tennessee, it predicted, could eclipse 60,000, with most of them occurring in West Tennessee.

One line in the report was especially disconcerting: "Memphis in particular could see severe damage."

But don't panic. The chances of cataclysmic earthquakes striking the region in your lifetime are slim, and they aren't something you need to fret about in your day-to-day life.

That being said, a lot of seismologists believe a repeat of the 1811-12 earthquakes could happen. The University of Memphis is home to the Center for Earthquake Research and Information, which closely tracks and studies earthquakes. The organization is internationally recognized as an authority on seismology, and its staffers haven't ruled out the possibility of catastrophic earthquakes rocking the region.

The seismic monitoring area at the University of Memphis’ Center for Earthquake Research and Information, can be seen during a tour on Thursday, May 02 2024 at 3890 Central Avenue in Memphis, Tenn.

“The odds are very good that we're going to get a repeat of 1811 and 1812,” said Mitch Withers, Ph.D., an associate research professor with CERI. “Nothing has changed that we’re aware of, that would stop that from happening again in the future sometime.”

According to the U.S. Geological Survey, the early 19th-century earthquakes weren’t the first ones in the New Madrid Seismic Zone. Similar sequences of earthquakes had already happened, around 1,450 AD and 900 AD, and other large earthquakes have also struck the region over the last 5,000 years.

“We know that similar sequences of earthquakes happened in the past at least three times,” Withers said. “So, if every 10 years your gate gets knocked down… you might guess that your gate is going to get knocked down again.”
Hard to predict 'the big one'

If a catastrophic earthquake were to come, it would likely be somewhere between a magnitude of seven and eight, which is the estimated strength of the 1811-12 earthquakes and enough to devastate communities. For comparison, earthquakes with a magnitude of 2.5 or less, which happen regularly, usually aren’t felt.

But just what are the chances of earthquakes like these returning to the seismic zone soon?

It’s difficult to say.

The USGS estimates that there’s a 7% to 10% chance the NMSZ would get a repeat of the 1811-12 earthquakes in the next 50 years. It also estimates that there’s a 25% to 40% chance it would get a 6.0 and greater earthquake ― which wouldn’t be as severe but could still cause significant damage ― in that same period.

But these are rough estimates; not exact predictions, and they don’t specify where in the NMSZ the earthquakes might occur. Would they be caused by the fault closest to Memphis, which is about 40 miles away in Marked Tree, Arkansas? Or would they stem from one of the other two major faults in the seismic zone ― which spans about 150 miles and covers portions of western Tennessee, northeast Arkansas, southeast Missouri, and western Kentucky?

Memphis could be affected regardless, and in 1811-12, all three faults ― not just one ― caused major earthquakes. Earthquakes of magnitude seven or more often come in sequences of two or three. But the questions do raise an important point: predicting earthquakes is difficult.

Previously: West Tennessee earthquake rattled nerves but no particular cause for concern, expert says

More: 5 things to know about earthquakes in the Memphis area

You can’t tell exactly where in the NMSZ major earthquakes would take place, just as you can’t tell when they would take place. Studies have shown that the sequences of earthquakes comparable to 1811-12 have occurred about every 500 years, but, as Withers noted, there’s “considerable variability in that.”

While you can make probabilities of the future that are based on the past, you can't predict earthquakes.

"The problem is, we can't tell you the 'when' of it," said Kent Moran, Ph.D., a research associate with CERI. "It's sort of like, 'When is the next earthquake?' When you feel it."
What would a massive earthquake do to Memphis?

If earthquakes similar to those of 1811-12 were to come, the effects on the Mid-South could be serious. When Withers spoke about damage, it wasn't initially clear if he was saying it would be “extensive” or “expensive.”

But really, either works.

One of the issues is that Memphis has a significant amount of unreinforced masonry buildings, which are typically older brick structures that predate building codes and are not braced by some kind of reinforcing material.

PhD student Navin Thapa explains how he interprets data to determine the magnitude of seismic activity in the Earthquake Physic Lab at the University of Memphis Center for Earthquake Research and Information on Wednesday, Feb. 14, 2024 in Memphis, Tenn.

When shaken by major earthquakes, they typically don’t fare well.

“Unreinforced masonry is probably one of the biggest concerns,” said Gary Patterson, a geologist and the director of education and outreach for CERI. “You have bricks without any steel reinforcement… If you move them a little bit in the mortar, they’re not going to return to where they were, and that means damage.”

Let's take another look at the FEMA-funded project produced in 2008, which simulated worse-case scenarios for the Central U.S. if the NMSZ produced magnitude 7.7 earthquakes.

According to the report, in Tennessee, over 250,000 buildings could be “moderately or more severely damaged,” economic losses could surpass $56 billion, and the number of casualties could eclipse 60,000. If the earthquake were to occur at 2 p.m., the number of casualties could reach 63,000 ― including nearly 4,100 fatalities ― and roughly 75% of them would occur in the 37 counties in west Tennessee. In addition, 263,000 people in Tennessee could also be displaced, and this, the report notes, is “likely due to the major population of Memphis, TN, incurring significant damage.”

Dr. Kent Moran, with the University of Memphis’ Center for Earthquake Research and Information, explains how earthquake monitoring equipment works during a tour on Thursday, May 02 2024 at 3890 Central Avenue in Memphis, Tenn.

The situation grows even more severe when you think about the implications for the broader region. Tennessee likely wouldn’t be the only place affected, given the size of the NMSZ and the reach of severe earthquakes. As the report puts it:

“A recurrence of the 1811-1812 series could have devastating impacts on the region, with considerable national repercussions, as transportation routes, natural gas, and oil transmission pipelines are broken, and services are interrupted.”
Hospitals and strip malls

The report doesn’t exactly paint a rosy picture. But it was released 16 years ago, and if the simulations were done again today, the outlook might look different.

In the 1990s, more stringent building codes were adopted around the country, due to lessons learned from earthquakes in California. And in 2008, Memphis and Shelby County adopted a code that was already used by much of the U.S. and required new project designs to put more focus on seismic provisions (which help structures resist seismic forces during earthquakes).

Developers must adhere to the minimum seismic provisions required by the code, which would, in theory, keep the building upright in the event of a major earthquake, and protect the people inside. The building might still incur significant damage; it could even be ruined. But the risk of casualties is much lower.

A graph with information on the New Madrid 1812 earthquake can be seen during a tour on Thursday, May 02 2024 at 3890 Central Avenue in Memphis, Tenn.

Developers and businesses do have the option, however, to implement more comprehensive and expensive protections against earthquakes, which would allow them to not just withstand the shaking but hopefully remain operational. And for some structures built since 2008, these extensive provisions aren't optional. Generally, buildings key to the welfare of society ― like schools, hospitals, or fire stations ― must meet more stringent requirements.

Whereas a strip mall need only adhere to the minimum code standards, a hospital must be thoroughly prepared for the possibility of a major earthquake.

And if a developer takes a building constructed prior to the codes adopted in 2008, and changes what it’s used for, there’s a good chance they’ll have to evaluate it, and, if necessary, have it seismically retrofitted.

“More buildings have been designed to more current codes,” said Ryan McDaniel, the engineering systems practice leader and principal for the firm A2H. “I know we've done a number of retrofits… There are buildings that no longer exist; they've been knocked down. And we've got a lot of new buildings.”

A 3D printed model, created by Dr. Christodoulos Kyriakopoulos with University of Memphis’ Center for Earthquake Research and Information, demonstrates the New Madrid 1812 earthquake on Thursday, May 02 2024 at 3890 Central Avenue in Memphis, Tenn.

Still, he acknowledged that calculating the damage difference between now and 2008 would be challenging. And it’s possible the results wouldn’t be dramatically better.

“2008 hasn’t been that long ago,” said Mike Sheridan, a structural engineer and senior VP for the firm Allen & Hoshall. “I think if you come back in 20 years, you might start to bring that down.”

The building codes adopted in 2008 also don’t require structures erected before that year to be seismically retrofitted, unless its purpose changes. And while building owners have the option to strengthen their structures against earthquakes, there can be questions over whether they should do so ― especially if it’s considered a historic structure.

Seismic retrofitting can be costly and invasive. If you’ve got a beloved, historic building, should you pour millions of dollars into earthquake protections that could alter its appearance, when the chances of an earthquake are slim?

"That's a societal question, more than an engineer's question," McDaniel said. "Oftentimes, seismic retrofits may be invasive and affect the appearance or other historical features of a building. So whether it should or should not [undergo seismic retrofits] is up to authorities of that jurisdiction, society, and people."

A graph with information on the New Madrid 1812 earthquake can be seen during a tour on Thursday, May 02 2024 at 3890 Central Avenue in Memphis, Tenn.

There are marquee facilities in Memphis that have either been designed to withstand earthquakes or seismically retrofitted. For example, the AutoZone headquarters and FedExForum were built with seismic provisions, and the Pyramid and the Interstate 40 bridge are among the local structures that have undergone extensive retrofits.

But there are also many buildings that don’t meet seismic standards and likely wouldn’t fare well in the event of an 1811-12 repeat.
Regional One Health at risk

Take, for example, the Medical District campus of Regional One Health.

Regional One President and CEO Dr. Reginald Coopwood explained that its facilities were constructed between 1950 and the mid-1980s, and its older structures don’t have any kind of seismic provisions ― putting the hospital in a potentially dangerous position if a major earthquake were to strike.

“That puts... some of the critical areas of our hospital [at risk]. One, the trauma center, today, sits up underneath our towers that are upon stilts. So, we’re at risk, in a devastating earthquake, that the trauma center would not exist,” Coopwood said.

Research associate Holly Withers explains how she watches for certain things on the duty review page to give information about how impactful an earthquake is at the University of Memphis Center for Earthquake Research and Information on Wednesday, Feb. 14, 2024 in Memphis, Tenn.

He means that the trauma center wouldn’t be able to provide the critical services that could be necessary amid a catastrophic earthquake. But a comprehensive seismic retrofitting of Regional One would come with a hefty price tag; it was estimated to be $568 million.

Instead, Regional One plans to build an entirely new hospital. The possibility of a cataclysmic earthquake, of course, isn’t the only reason for this ― but it is a major one.

“I hope it never comes,” Coopwood said. “But if it were to come, I want the region’s trauma center to be housed in a building that is seismically appropriate, so we can respond.”
Should we be worried about a big earthquake in Memphis?

None of this, of course, is meant to keep you up at night. Withers, the associate research professor at CERI, is still sleeping, and he's spent the bulk of his career studying earthquakes.

Does he think we should be prepared, in case catastrophic earthquakes do come? Yes. But does the idea of them scare him?

Not necessarily.

“You know, you can die of a lot of different things every day,” he said. “And if you’re walking around worried about all the things that can kill you, you forget to live.”

Dr. Kent Moran, with the University of Memphis’ Center for Earthquake Research and Information, explains the CERI Seismic Network Map during a tour on Thursday, May 02 2024 at 3890 Central Avenue in Memphis, Tenn.

John Klyce covers education and children's issues for The Commercial Appeal. You can reach him at John.klyce@commercialappeal.com.

This article originally appeared on Memphis Commercial Appeal: What are the odds of a massive earthquake hitting Memphis, Tennessee?


Memphis is near a major fault. What experts say you can do to prepare for an earthquake

John Klyce, Memphis Commercial Appeal
Tue, May 14, 2024 

In late 1811 and early 1812, the Mid-South was rocked by three major earthquakes, and recently, The Commercial Appeal sought to answer a few questions: What are the chances that earthquakes of this magnitude could strike again, and what would the damage be?

Let’s entertain the possibility that a repeat of 1811-12 does come soon while bearing in mind that the chances of this are slim and that you shouldn’t panic.

How can you prepare? And what should you do if the earthquake comes?

You don’t want to have large, heavy things loose in the house. Mitch Withers, Ph.D., an associate research professor with the Center for Earthquake Research and Information, suggests strapping in your water heater and nailing your bookshelf to the wall.

The seismic network map at the University of Memphis’ Center for Earthquake Research and Information, can be seen during a tour on Thursday, May 02 2024 at 3890 Central Avenue in Memphis, Tenn.

A lot of the preparation for an earthquake can double up as preparation for other emergencies. Having an emergency kit that provides you with first aid supplies, as well as three to five days of water and nonperishable food, isn’t a bad idea.

If a 7-plus magnitude earthquake does come, the shaking would be so severe you likely wouldn’t be able to stand. But there is advice for what you should do in this scenario. If your clothes catch fire, you “stop, drop, and roll," and in the event of an earthquake, you “drop, cover, and hold on.”

From the experts: Could Memphis handle a massive earthquake, and how likely is one?

Get under a thick desk or table and hold on for dear life until the shaking stops. You don’t want to attempt to rush out while it’s still shaking.

“The biggest threat to people,” Withers explained, “is things falling on them.”

Once the shaking has stopped, then run outside ― while keeping in mind that there likely will be aftershocks.

But again, you shouldn’t spend your days fretting over the possibility of a catastrophic earthquake.

“The better way to go is to just prepare,” Withers said. “Do what you can to prepare and then just go live.”

This article originally appeared on Memphis Commercial Appeal: What should you do if there's a major earthquake in Memphis?

Fire threat eases near Canada's oil sands hub, but a long, hot summer looms

SUMAN NAISHADHAM and ROB GILLIES
Updated Wed, May 15, 2024 



Burned trees from the 2016 wildfire stand sentinel over a neighborhood in Fort McMurray, Alberta, on Wednesday, May 15, 2024. 

(Jeff McIntosh /The Canadian Press via AP)

The threat from a wildfire near Canada's oil sands hub of Fort McMurray, Alberta, appeared to be easing on Wednesday, a day after it forced thousands of residents to evacuate and stirred memories of a damaging blaze nearly a decade earlier.

Favorable winds were expected to push the fire away from the city of about 68,000 in northwest Canada, where many residents earn a paycheck from the nearby oil industry. The Fort McMurray fire comes as Canada is just entering a new fire season after last year’s record number of wildfires sent choking smoke across parts of the U.S. and forced more than 235,000 Canadians to evacuate their communities.

But scientists have said it's not clear that wildfire smoke will be the same problem it was last year, when unusual weather patterns drove the haze southward.


In Fort McMurray, about 6,600 residents fled parts of the city's southern end while others were on on alert. It was familiar terrain for the Albertan city, which survived a catastrophic blaze in 2016 that destroyed 2,400 homes and forced more than 80,000 people to flee.

Jay Telegdi, who lost his home to that wildfire, watched from his balcony on Tuesday as the sky over downtown turned orange and black. It “burned your eyes” to walk outside, Telegdi said in a phone interview, adding that it was slightly easier to breathe on Wednesday.

“You can grow accustomed to it,” said Telegdi, who works for the Athabasca Chipewyan First Nation. “We’ve come to accept columns of smoke blocking out the whole sky and yet we’re still drilling for oil.”

Canada is the world’s fourth-largest producer of oil and fifth-largest producer of gas, a reality that sits uncomfortably with the nation’s pledges to protect biodiversity and lead the global fight against climate change. When burned, oil and gas release heat-trapping carbon dioxide into the atmosphere, intensifying the very conditions that help wildfires scorch millions of acres.

In Canada last year, they burned an area larger than New York state, releasing nearly three times the emissions produced by the country's entire economy in a year, and sending hazardous air to U.S. cities thousands of miles away. No civilians died, but at least four firefighters died.

Dave Phillips, senior climatologist at Environment Canada, a government agency, said the smoke that reached the U.S. East Coast last year largely came from Eastern Canada.

“That was odd in the sense most wildfires in Canada are in British Columbia and Alberta. You rarely see a fire in Quebec and the smoke travels to the United States,” Phillips said, adding that Eastern Canada has seen a lot more rain this spring and has been much cooler.

Mike Flannigan, a professor of wildland fire at Thompson Rivers University in British Columbia, said “legacy effects” of last year's season are spilling over to 2024. Ongoing drought in Western Canada, higher temperatures due to El Nino and so-called “zombie fires” that burn underground through the winter in organic matter and reappear once the snow melts in the spring are factors driving wildfires in some parts of the country.

Alberta, the province that includes Fort McMurray, draws significant revenue from the fossil fuel industry. Suncor Energy said Wednesday its operations outside the city were not affected by the fires, but that some of its employees and contractors were. Fire officials said evacuation orders would likely be in place in Fort McMurray until Tuesday.

Charlie Angus, a member of Parliament from the leftist New Democrats party, said on X that oil companies including Exxon Mobil and Shell “predicted the climate catastrophe that is upending life today,” which studies from journalists, scientists and advocacy groups have confirmed in subsequent years.

“They just never bothered to tell the people in Fort McMurray who are living with the consequences of peak C02,” Angus wrote.

In the neighboring province of British Columbia, a low-pressure system moving into the northern part of the province was expected to dampen activity at a blaze that has forced several thousand people to flee their homes in and around Fort Nelson, a town of about 4,700, the province's wildfire service said.

In Manitoba, about 500 people have been forced out of their homes in the remote northwestern community of Cranberry Portage ahead of a fire measuring more than 300 square kilometers. Officials said Wednesday the fire was about 80% contained and residents might be allowed to return to their homes this weekend.

___

Naishadham reported from Washington, D.C. Gillies reported from Toronto.

___

Wildfire Prompts Partial Evacuation of Canada’s Oil-Sands Capital

Robert Tuttle
Tue, May 14, 2024 



(Bloomberg) -- Portions of Fort McMurray, Alberta, are being evacuated as a wildfire approaches the city, the unofficial capital of Canada’s oil sands industry that almost burned to the ground during a historic blaze eight years ago.

The 11,000 hectare (27,000 acre) blaze expanded overnight and is moving northeastward toward the the city. The fire is now about 7.5 kilometers (4.7 miles) from the Fort McMurray landfill, southwest of the city, but thick smoke is making it difficult to determine exact distances, Alberta Wildfire said in a release. Winds are blowing from the southwest, gusting as high as 40 kilometers an hour.

“This will be a challenging day for firefighters,” the agency warned, adding some had to be pulled from the fire line for safety reasons.

Rising temperatures across western Canada increased fire risk in recent days, contributing to poor air quality in Calgary over the weekend. Rain in the Fort McMurray area was supposed to ease the wildfires on Monday, but fire activity increased in the afternoon and into the evening, according to Alberta Wildfire. More than 65% of Canada was abnormally parched or in drought at the end of March, threatening another smoke-filled summer after last year’s fire season, which was Canada’s worst on record.

The Regional Municipality of Wood Buffalo, where Fort McMurray is located, declared a state of local emergency. Residents of the communities of Beacon Hill, Abasand, Prairie Creek and Grayling Terrace were ordered to evacuate. Abasand and Beacon Hill had about 6,000 residents in 2021, according to the Municipal Census Report.

Fort McMurray, in a remote and heavily forested part of the province, was ravaged by a blaze in 2016 that burned down large sections of the city, forcing thousands to evacuate and temporarily shutting more than 1 million barrels a day of oil output. The fire caused about C$3.7 billion ($2.7 billion) in insured losses, making it Canada’s costliest natural disaster.

The current fire is one of three that are listed as out of control in Alberta and the closest to the oil sands, where the bulk of Canada’s 4.9 million barrels a day of crude is produced. The fire prompted an alert Friday that put the city’s 70,000 residents on notice to be prepared to leave.

Read More: ‘Zombie Fires’ Near Oil and Gas Wells Threaten Canada’s Drillers

The fire isn’t currently near any major oil sands mines, but its southern perimeter is within 8 kilometers (5 miles) of Athabasca Oil Corp.’s Hangingstone well site, which produced almost 7,500 barrels of oil a day in February, Alberta Energy Regulator data show. The company didn’t respond to questions on the status of the facility.

In addition, two Inter Pipeline Ltd. natural gas liquid lines and a Pembina Pipeline Corp. crude pipeline pass through the west end of the wildfire zone, according to Alberta Energy Regulator and Alberta Wildfire data. Inter Pipeline said in an email its assets haven’t been affected, but the company is monitoring the situation. Pembina didn’t respond to an email seeking comment.

Emails to the biggest oil sands companies in the area, including Suncor Energy Inc., Canadian Natural Resources Ltd. and Imperial Oil Ltd., which operate massive oil sands mines to the north of the city, regarding the impact of the evacuations on their operations were not immediately returned.

Meanwhile, a blaze in British Columbia continues to threaten the town of Fort Nelson, on the northern edge of a major natural gas producing region. The town’s 3,000 residents are under an evacuation order and new evacuation orders and alerts were issued Monday for nearby areas.

A wildfire has forced out hundreds of residents in Canada's oil sands hub of Fort McMurray

Associated Press
Updated Tue, May 14, 2024 








Kristen Leer, a Fort Nelson, B.C. evacuee, stops for a photo at the North Peace Arena in Fort St. John, B.C., on Monday, May 13, 2024. Leer said as a quadriplegic she is impressed with how the province is treating people with disabilities.Wildfires are forcing more people to evacuate their homes in dry and windy northeastern B.C. (Jesse Boily /The Canadian Press via AP)

VANCOUVER, British Columbia (AP) — Hundreds of residents in four neighborhoods in the southern end of Canada’s oil sand hub of Fort McMurray, Alberta, were ordered to evacuate with a wildfire threatening the community, authorities said Tuesday.

The Rural Municipality of Wood Buffalo said residents in Beacon Hill, Abasand, Prairie Creek and Grayling Terrace needed to leave by 4 p.m.

An emergency evacuation warning remained in place for the rest of Fort McMurray and surrounding areas.

The rural municipality said the residents in the four neighborhoods were being ordered out to clear room for crews to fight the fire, which had moved to within 13 kilometers (8 miles) of the city.

Fort McMurray has a population of about 68,000, and a wildfire there in 2016 destroyed 2,400 homes and forced more than 80,000 people to flee.

“It’s very important for me to know that this fire activity is very different than the 2016 Horse River wildfire. We have an abundance of resources and we are well positioned to respond to this situation,” Regional Fire Chief Jody Butz said.

Suzy Gerendi, who runs the dessert shop in the Beacon Hill neighborhood, said she was already packed up when the evacuation order came down. Gerendi lived in Beacon Hill when fire overtook it in 2016.

She immediately began the drive towards Edmonton, Alberta with her three dogs.

“It’s very, very dark and orange,” Gerendi said. “It brings up some memories and it’s not a good feeling.”

Residents were also dealing with heavy smoke and ash.

“It’s dark. The smoke is everywhere,” said resident Else Hoko.

Hoko picked up her two sons from school in Abasand after receiving the evacuation order. She had also fled in 2016.

“I’m so stressed,” she said, adding that she’s praying for rain.

The Beacon Hill and Abasand neighborhoods saw serious losses in 2016.

The current fire has grown to about 110 square kilometers (42.5 square miles) and remains out of control.

Josee St. Onge, an Alberta Wildfire information officer, said wind is pushing the fire toward the community.

She said crews have been pulled from the fire line for safety reasons, and air tankers and helicopters continue to drop water and retardant on the “active edges.”

“Unfortunately, these are not favorable winds for us, and the fire will continue to advance towards the town until we see a wind shift,” she said.

More than 230 wildfires were burning across western Canada, most of them in British Columbia, where about 130 were counted, officials said.

In the northeast of the neighboring province of British Columbia, areas subject to mandatory evacuation increased, with the latest order Monday for Doig River First Nation and the Peace River Regional District as a fire threatened nearby.

Forecasts on Tuesday called for wind that could blow a growing wildfire closer to Fort Nelson. Emergency workers had been phoning as many of the estimated 50 residents still in town and urging them to go.

The British Columbia Wildfire Service said the blaze had grown to 84 square kilometers (32 miles). On Monday, it was about 53 square kilometers (21 miles) in size. A photo by the service shows the billowing blaze spreading in a vast wooded area.

The community of about 4,700 and the neighboring Fort Nelson First Nation have been under an evacuation order since Friday.

Northern Rockies Regional Municipality Mayor Rob Fraser said one drawback of the evacuation is the challenge for essential staff, including firefighters, to find food.

“This is really going to be weather dependent, and so far the weather has been holding with us,” Fraser said of the wildfire in a video posted to Facebook.

In 2023, Canada experienced a record number of wildfires that caused choking smoke in parts of the U.S. and forced more than 235,000 Canadians to evacuate their communities. At least four firefighters died.

Wildfire in Canada forces thousands to evacuate

Reuters Videos
Updated Tue, May 14, 2024 at 11:54 PM MDT

STORY: :: A large wildfire is seen approaching a western

Canada oil town, forcing thousands to evacuate

:: May 14, 2024

:: Fort McMurray, Canada

:: Josee St-Onge/Alberta Wildfire Information Officer

“Wildfire MWF017 is still out of control and its last known size was 9602 hectares, but we know that it has grown since the size estimate was taken. The wildfire grew significantly to the northeast yesterday and continues to grow in that direction today. The wind is pushing it towards the town of Fort McMurray.”

“Fire activity is increasing on the northeastern edge of the wildfire driven by winds from the southwest. We're seeing extreme fire behavior. Smoke columns are developing and the skies are covered in smoke. Firefighters have been pulled from the fire line for safety reasons. We continue to work on this wildfire with aerial support. Helicopters and air tankers are dropping water and retardant on the active edges of the fire.”

The fire, fueled by tinder dry conditions and high winds, has been threatening the city in the western province of Alberta since last week. It is now about 8 miles away to the south west.

Canada wildfires 2024: Images show wildfire season roaring to a start in Western Canada

Corné van Hoepen
·Editor, Yahoo News Canada
Wed, May 15, 2024 at 12:29 PM MDT















13 / 13
Northern lights shine behind Fort Nelson wildfire


The wildfire forcing thousands to evacuate from a northeast British Columbia town has doubled again in size as the blaze grows merely a few kilometres west of city limits. The Aurora Borealis shines overhead of a B.C. Conservation Officer Service vehicle near the junction of highways 97 and 77, as a wildfire burns in the background near Fort Nelson, B.C., in a Saturday, May 11, 2024, handout photo.More

Wildfire season is roaring to a start with dozens of wildfires being reported across British Columbia and Alberta, with thousands facing mandatory evacuation orders.

In Fort Nelson, B.C., about 4,700 people are out of their homes. Roughly 6,600 residents have been evacuated out of parts of Fort McMurray, Alta., while the rest of the city remains on evacuation alert. And a fire near Cranberry Portage, Man., has forced out about 500 residents, according to reports by The Canadian Press.

The report shares that B.C. Wildfire Service says fires this year have already burned through more than 2,300 square kilometres.

That's already enough to place 2024 in the middle of rankings for total amounts burned in entire years since 2008.

Dry conditions in both provinces raise fears of fires sparking and spreading further.
View comments

Fear, anxiety as thousands flee their homes in Fort McMurray due to threat of wildfire

CBC
Wed, May 15, 2024


A highway camera photo shows traffic in Fort McMurray jammed in the southbound lane of Highway 63 on the north side of the Athabasca River. The image was captured at 3:11 p.m. MT Tuesday, about an hour after an evacuation order was issued for four neighbourhoods. (511 Alberta - image credit)


Thousands of Fort McMurray residents headed south to safety as a large out-of-control wildfire drew closer to their community, but many are worried they won't have a home to return to.

An evacuation order was issued Tuesday afternoon for the neighbourhoods of Beacon Hill, Abasand, Prairie Creek and Grayling Terrace, as the wildfire southwest of the community continues to grow.

Other areas in Fort McMurray remain on evacuation alert and residents need to be ready to leave on short notice.

Marina Barnes has lived in Fort McMurray for four years and evacuated from her home in Abasand Tuesday.

"I think the worst part right now is the unknown," Barnes told CBC as she and a friend evacuated to Lac La Biche in the evening.

"Not knowing if we're going to have a home to go back to."

The Regional Municipality of Wood Buffalo had told residents to head to an evacuation centre in Lac La Biche, but around 7 p.m., the municipality posted on social media that accommodation in Lac La Biche was full and directed evacuees to Cold Lake, about 147 kilometres to a new evacuation centre at the Agriplex.

The City of Edmonton is also accepting evacuees at a reception centre located in the Clareview Community Recreation Centre at 3804 139th Avenue.

As of Tuesday night, the wildfire threatening the community has covered nearly 21,000 hectares as shifting winds and rising temperatures continue accelerating its growth and pushing the flames closer to the community.

All residents in the evacuation zone were ordered to leave by 4 p.m. MT.

"I could see the orange glow from my balcony, and where I live in Abasand, it's the farthest back apartment. So if the fire were to reach Abasand, my building would have been the first one to get hit," Barnes said.

Moving forward from 2016

For some Fort McMurray residents, having to leave home due to the threat of wildfire is a familiar and bitter experience.

"Nothing can prepare you," Aleks Mortlock said as he recalled having his home destroyed in the 2016 fire.

"Still the same anxiety, same things going through your mind, and this time, I have kids to worry about," Mortlock said, noting he was evacuating with two children under the age of six.

"My son kept asking me why we got evacuated and ... you can explain it to him, but ... They don't really understand."

For some Fort McMurray residents like Aleks Mortlock, evacuating is a familiar and bitter experience.

For some Fort McMurray residents like Aleks Mortlock, evacuating is a familiar and bitter experience. (Sam Martin/CBC)

Kathleen Tomie, a resident from Dickinsfield, decided to leave Tuesday even though her neighbourhood was not ordered to evacuate.

In 2016, Tomie had to evacuate while pregnant with her daughter and console a young son who was frightened by the situation.

"It was hard. I don't want to do that again," Tomie said.

Ian Seggie, who lives in Thickwood Heights north of the Athabasca River, said he'll never forget the 2016 wildfire.

"I think people are still reeling with 2016, which was almost eight years ago to the day," Seggie told CBC.

Officials say the fire threatening Fort McMurray is a different kind of beast from the 2016 wildfire that devastated the community.

"Everything is like a carbon copy of that day, it felt like that," Seggie said.

"But what I'm noticing this time around, there's a lot of lessons that have been learned."

A wildfire threatening the community has now consumed nearly 21,000 hectares as shifting winds and rising temperatures continue to accelerate its growth and push the flames closer to the municipality.

A wildfire threatening the community has now consumed nearly 21,000 hectares as shifting winds and rising temperatures continue to accelerate its growth and push the flames closer to the municipality. (Submitted by Rochelle Yurko)

Jody Butz, the regional fire chief, told Wood Buffalo council Tuesday that up to 6,600 people could be in the evacuation zone.

Crews will be better able to defend these areas with the residents gone, Butz said. Many of the neighbourhood streets now under evacuation were devastated by fire in 2016 — Abasand and Beacon Hill were among the hardest hit.

Seggie said community members need to unite and help one another, whether it is the sharing of information or resources.

"It adds some calmness when people know they're being looked after ... we did that in 2016, and we'll do that again."

Canada city devastated by 2016 wildfire faces evacuations as new blaze nears

Leyland Cecco in Toronto
Tue, May 14, 2024 



Residents of four suburbs in the Canadian city of Fort McMurray have been ordered to evacuate as a wildfire approaches the city, stirring grim reminders of the country’s costliest natural disaster.

Officials in the western province of Alberta issued evacuation orders for the neighbourhoods of Beacon Hill, Abasand, Prairie Creek and Grayling Terrace on Tuesday, telling all residents to leave by 4pm MT.

Related: ‘Absolutely apocalyptic’: Fort McMurray evacuees describe terror of Alberta wildfires

“Due to the approaching wildfire, interfacing communities are being evacuated to allow for fire suppression efforts,” the order said. Residents were advised to take pets, medications, important documents and emergency kits with them.

Officials have been closely monitoring a wildfire southwest of the city that has grown over recent days to cover 9,600 hectares, aided by arid conditions and strong winds. The huge fire has gradually been approaching Fort McMurray and is now about 13km (8 miles) from the city limits.

“Our main priority is the protection of life and property,” said Jody Butz, regional fire chief and director of emergency management, in a statement, adding the fire activity is “very different” from the blaze that ripped through the city eight years ago.

“All the dead and downed trees that were there, that’s what’s being burned right now, along with some dry grass,” said Butz.Interactive

Images on social media showed heavy traffic leaving the city, with the sky a dark amber hue from thick plumes of smoke.

For residents of Fort McMurray, the evacuation order was a reminder of the huge wildfire that tore through Canada’s oil sands capital in 2016.

“I want to recognise the anxiety that this brings, certainly to those residents that were here in 2016, and to those where this is their first experience and have heard the stories,” said Butz

During that blaze, nearly 90,000 people were forced to evacuate the city, crawling along in bumper-to-bumper traffic as ash rained down and flames licked the side of the highway.

The fire, dubbed The Beast, obliterated much of the city’s infrastructure, causing more than $9bn in damages.

“We’re seeing extreme fire behaviour. Smoke columns are developing and the skies are covered in smoke. Firefighters have been pulled from the fire line for safety reasons,” Josee St-Onge of Alberta Wildfire told reporters. “We continue to work on this wildfire with aerial support helicopters and air tankers are dropping water and retardant on the active edges of the fire.”

Wind is expected to keep pushing the fire to toward the city, said St-Onge.

“We understand that this is a very stressful time for the community. I want to assure everyone that we are doing everything we can.”

Related: British Columbia ‘extremely concerned’ as wildfire threatens to destroy town

There are currently more than 50 wildfires burning across the province of Alberta, according to officials, including two out-of-control fires: the one approaching Fort McMurray and another near the community of Grande Prairie.

Other provinces in western Canada are also on edge: crews are carefully watching a blaze on the edge of Fort Nelson, a town in northern British Columbia. Strong winds are expected to push the fire even closer to the community, with fears it could be overrun in the coming days.

In Manitoba, a massive blaze near Flin Flon has grown quickly, exploding in size from the 35 hectares to 3,000 hectares in a single day.

“I’ve been working in wildfire for 40 years … I’ve never seen a fire move like this fire moved,” chief conservation officer Earl Simmons of the Manitoba wildfire service told reporters Monday.

CLIMATE IS THE CRISIS

A deadly heat wave worsened Gaza’s humanitarian crisis. It was fueled by climate change, new data shows

Laura Paddison, CNN
Tue, May 14, 2024 

A deadly heatave in Gaza in April, which saw punishing temperatures worsen an already dire humanitarian crisis, was made hotter and more likely by the human-caused climate crisis, according to an analysis published Tuesday.

Gaza was not alone. Several heat waves spanning a vast area of the Asian continent last month during the world’s hottest April on record were made more intense and likely by the climate crisis, the analysis from the World Weather Attribution initiative (WWA) found.

The WWA report divided the heat waves into three areas: West Asia, the Philippines and a region spanning South and Southeast Asia.

In West Asia, the analysis focused on the Palestinian territories, Syria, Lebanon, Israel and Jordan, where temperatures spiked above 40 degrees Celsius (104 Fahrenheit) last month. It found climate change made the heat in this region around five times more likely and 1.7 degrees Celsius hotter than it would have been before humans started burning large amounts of fossil fuels.

Soaring temperatures had a particularly stark impact on the 1.7 million displaced people in Gaza, already struggling with insufficient water access and inadequate healthcare. There was little respite from the relentless heat for those crammed into makeshift tents and shelters, often covered with plastic sheets. At least three people, including two children, reportedly died from the heat, the analysis notes.

In the Philippines, the extreme heat last month — which forced hundreds of schools to close as temperatures reached more than 42 degrees Celsius — had such a strong link to human-caused global warming the report concluded it would have been impossible without it.

Palestinians jump into the water to cool off during hot weather in Rafah, Gaza on April 19, 2024. - Jehad Alshrafi/Anadolu/Getty Images

To calculate the influence of climate change on the extreme heat, WWA researchers used weather data and computer models to compare the world’s current climate — which is around 1.2 degrees Celsius warmer than before humans started burning large amounts of fossil fuels — with the climate of the past.

“From Gaza to Delhi to Manila, people suffered and died when April temperatures soared in Asia,” Friederike Otto, senior lecturer in climate science at the Grantham Institute for Climate Change and the Environment and a report author, said in a statement. “Heat waves have always happened. But the additional heat, driven by emissions from oil, gas and coal, is resulting in death for many people.”

The scientists also examined the role of El Niño, a natural climate pattern that influences global weather.

While they found it had no influence in West Asia’s April heat, it did affect the intensity of heat in the Philippines, pushing up temperatures by 0.2 degrees Celsius. However, the impact of climate change there was greater, increasing temperatures by about 1.2 degrees.

In today’s warmer world, the kind of extreme heat waves experienced in Gaza and West Asia, as well as the Philippines, are not rare and can be expected around once every 10 years, the report found. But it warns worse could be in store.

If the planet’s average temperature rises to 2 degrees Celsius above pre-industrial levels, which is predicted to happen in the 2040s or 2050s if the world does not decarbonize fast enough, similar extreme heat waves could be expected once every five years in West Asia and every two to three years in the Philippines.

Women cover their faces with a cloth on a hot day, in Raipur, India, on April 15, 2024. - Idrees Mohammed/AFP/Getty Images

Heat wave made 45 times more likely

The WWA analysis also looked at parts of South and Southeast Asia, many of which also experienced unprecedented heat last month.

Myanmar, Laos and Vietnam all broke records for their hottest April day, while temperatures spiked to 46 degrees Celsius (115 Fahrenheit) in India. Bangladesh and Thailand also experienced scorching April temperatures and were included in the study.

Climate change also played a pronounced role in this region, according to the analysis, making the heat 45 times more likely and 0.85 degrees Celsius hotter.

The scientists took a simpler approach than usual for this part of Asia, looking only at weather data and not computer models, because the region overlapped with two previous analyses of extreme heat events in 2022 and 2023, which also found climate change played a strong role.

The numbers in the report are important, Otto said, “because they show us that everywhere climate change is an absolute game changer when it comes to extreme heat.” But numbers alone don’t necessarily show how bad the impacts are — these depend on people’s vulnerability and exposure.

Days of temperatures above 40 degrees Celsius (104 Fahrenheit) were “particularly difficult for people working outdoors, people living in informal housing (and) people living in refugee camps,” Otto said.

Asia is also home to some of the planet’s fastest growing cities, said Carolina Pereira Marghidan, climate risk consultant at the Red Cross Red Crescent Climate Centre, on a call with reporters. This has led to rapid, unplanned development. “Many cities have seen extreme losses of green space,” Pereira said, increasing the impacts of extreme heat on residents.

The world must take “massive, unprecedented steps to reduce emissions,” said Mariam Zachariah, a researcher at the Grantham Institute, in a statement. If not, she added, “extreme heat will lead to even greater suffering in Asia.”



Asia’s Killer April Heat Wave Was Made Much Worse by Climate Change

Lou Del Bello
Tue, May 14, 2024




(Bloomberg) -- The April heat wave that swept through Asia, bringing temperatures as high as 46C (115F) in some places, was much more severe and likely to occur than it would have been in a world without climate change, scientists have concluded.

Extreme heat affected hundreds of millions across the region last month, adding to the plight of 1.7 million people displaced by the war in Gaza as well as those without access to cooling. Hundreds of people died from heat-related causes, although more fatalities were likely to have gone unreported, according to the researchers.

The World Weather Attribution (WWA) group used computer models and ground observations to trace the footprint of heat-trapping gases in the affected area.

“What we wanted to know is whether such temperatures were possible in the past, and whether they will be like this going into the future.” said Mariam Zachariah, a climate change researcher at the Grantham Institute of Imperial College London and lead author of the study.

The scientists found that in areas such as Palestine and Israel, climate change made the heat wave five times more likely than it would have been in pre-industrial times, and 1.7C hotter.

In the Philippines, where temperatures were 1.2C higher, the researchers estimated that this year’s heat wave would have been impossible without decades of burning fossil fuels.

In South Asia, which was the focus of two such studies in 2022 and 2023, abnormal heat was found to be 45 times more likely to occur, and to be 0.85C higher due to climate change.

The WWA researchers also looked at whether El Niño, the naturally occurring warm current in the Pacific Ocean, may have played a part in the event. They concluded that while it raised temperatures in the Philippines by about 0.2C, it did not influence the West Asian heatwave.

The study drives home the prospect of “wide-ranging systemic impacts on the economy,” said Ashish Fernandes, chief executive officer of the consultancy Climate Risk Horizons. “If you look at the major economic indicators that are problematic right now in India, you see food inflation, low level productivity, unemployment,” all of which will worsen with each new heat wave.

A separate study in 2022 found that heat may contribute to 650 billion hours a year of lost labor globally, having cost an estimated $2.1 trillion equivalent in 2017 alone.

“I would describe this is as a chronic inflammation of the body,” Fernandes said. “You are not collapsing and dying, but it makes your life harder in every way.”

Heat action plans are in place in countries like India, the WWA scientists note, albeit not at a sufficient scale to protect the most vulnerable from temperature stress.

“The scale of the problem and people impacted in a country like India is enormous,” said Jaya Dhindaw, a sustainability expert at the World Resources Institute, citing the many people who lack resources to protect themselves from extreme heat. “It is a matter of survival.”

The reality on the ground is also complex, said Aditya Valiathan Pillai, a fellow with the think tank Sustainable Futures Collective who in 2023 carried out an extensive analysis of India’s heat action plans at a state level.

“Putting preparedness front and center as a major strategy across the many thousands of local governments in this country is a very big challenge,” he said. Funding is often scarce, but public awareness about heat exposure risks is what’s still lacking in India, as people are only now starting to understand that high temperatures can kill as well as decrease productivity.

None of this is easy, he said, but getting myriad local administrations to work together “may well result in a resiliency framework for the country which would be an example for other heat-prone nations in the developing world.”

--With assistance from Coco Liu.


Sweltering heat across Asia was 45 times more likely because of climate change, study

 finds

SIBI ARASU
Tue, May 14, 2024 




 A man drinks water as he takes a break from cleaning an underground sewage on a hot summer day in Mumbai, India, May 2, 2024. Sizzling heat across Asia and the Middle East in late April that echoed last year’s destructive swelter was made 45 times more likely in some parts of the continent because of human-caused climate change, a study found. 

(AP Photo/Rafiq Maqbool, File)

BENGALURU, India (AP) — Sizzling heat across Asia and the Middle East in late April that echoed last year's destructive swelter was made 45 times more likely in some parts of the continent because of human-caused climate change, a study Tuesday found.

Scorching temperatures were felt across large swaths of Asia, from Gaza in the west — where over 2 million people face clean water shortages, lack of health care and other essentials amid the Israeli bombardment — to the Philippines in the southeast, with many parts of the continent experiencing temperatures well above 40 degrees Celsius (104 degrees Fahrenheit) several days in a row.

The study was released by the World Weather Attribution group of scientists, who use established climate models to quickly determine whether human-caused climate change played a part in extreme weather events around the world.

In the Philippines, scientists found the heat was so extreme it would have been impossible without human-caused climate change. In parts of the Middle East, climate change increased the probability of the event by about a factor of five.

“People suffered and died when April temperatures soared in Asia,” said Friederike Otto, study author and climate scientist at Imperial College in London. “If humans continue to burn fossil fuels, the climate will continue to warm, and vulnerable people will continue to die.”

At least 28 heat-related deaths were reported in Bangladesh, as well as five in India and three in Gaza in April. Surges in heat deaths have also been reported in Thailand and the Philippines this year according to the study.

The heat also had a large impact on agriculture, causing crop damage and reduced yields, as well as on education, with school vacations having to be extended and schools closed in several countries, affecting thousands of students.

Myanmar, Laos and Vietnam broke records for their hottest April day, and the Philippines experienced its hottest night ever with a low of 29.8 degrees Celsius (85.6 degrees Fahrenheit). In India, temperatures reached as high as 46 degrees Celsius (115 degrees Fahrenheit). The month was the hottest April on record globally and the eleventh consecutive month in a row that broke the hottest month record.

Climate experts say extreme heat in South Asia during the pre-monsoon season is becoming more frequent and the study found that extreme temperatures are now about 0.85 degrees Celsius (1.5 Fahrenheit) hotter in the region because of climate change.

Internally displaced people, migrants and those in refugee camps were especially vulnerable to the searing temperatures, the study found.

“These findings in scientific terms are alarming," said Aditya Valiathan Pillai, a heat plans expert at New Delhi-based think tank Sustainable Futures Collaborative. "But for people on the ground living in precarious conditions, it could be absolutely deadly.” Pillai was not part of the study.

Pillai said more awareness about heat risks, public and private investments to deal with increasing heat and more research on its impacts are all necessary to deal with future heat waves.

“I think heat is now among the foremost risks in terms of personal health for millions across the world as well as nations’ economic development," he said.

___

Associated Press writer Seth Borenstein in Washington, D.C. contributed to this report.

___

Follow Sibi Arasu on Twitter at @sibi123

____

The Associated Press’ climate and environmental coverage receives financial support from multiple private foundations. AP is solely responsible for all content. Find AP’s standards for working with philanthropies, a list of supporters and funded coverage areas at AP.org.


Asia's deadly heat wave was made 45 times more likely for this reason

Li Cohen
Updated Wed, May 15, 2024 

Hundreds of people died across Asia in recent weeks as the region sweltered under blistering temperatures. And a new study determined a leading factor in how it all happened.

Last month, many areas in India saw temperatures well above triple digits. The country's meteorological service says that heat waves are not uncommon between March and June, with May being the "peak month" for the extreme weather event. In Bhagdora, India, last month, temperatures hit nearly 115 degrees Fahrenheit as the India Meteorological Department issued a red alert warning, meaning that severe heat was expected to persist for more than two days and there was a very high likelihood for heat-related illnesses.

Elsewhere in the country, it was so hot that schools were canceled, an issue that people also faced in the Philippines. People in Thailand were also asked by officials to stay indoors when possible to avoid the heat, as dozens of people had already died from heat-related illnesses. According to the Associated Press, the April heat killed at least 28 people in Bangladesh, five in India and three in Gaza.

And according to the organization World Weather Attribution, it all comes down to two words – climate change.

An elderly person is bathing beside a road on a hot summer day on the outskirts of Kolkata, India, on April 28, 2024. / Credit: Sudipta Das/NurPhoto via Getty Images

"The heat wave exacerbated already precarious conditions faced by internally displaced people, migrants and those in refugee camps and conflict zones across West Asia," a new study from the organization said. "... The extreme heat has forced thousands of schools to close down in South and Southeast Asia."

Researchers said that while the kind of heat experienced during this time "is not very rare," it's only being amplified by climate change, which is fueled by global warming largely caused by the burning of fossil fuels.

West Asia is anticipated to get an extreme heat event once a decade, and in the Philippines, that likelihood is even less, about once every 20 years when El Niño isn't at play. In South Asia at large, extreme heat is not common.

A man unloads blocks of ice from a truck during high temperatures in Bangkok, Thailand, on Sunday, April 28, 2024. / Credit: Andre Malerba/Bloomberg via Getty Images

"An extremely warm April such as this one is a somewhat rarer event, with a 3% probability of happening in a given year – or once every 30 years," researchers said, adding that observations and data models show that human-caused climate change creates a "strong increase in likelihood and intensity."

"In the Philippines, the change in likelihood is so large that the event would have been impossible without human-caused climate change," they said. "In West Asia, climate change increased the probability of the event by about a factor of 5."

The average April temperatures in South Asia, which the group has studied twice in the last two years from other extreme events, "are now about 45 times more likely and 0.85 degrees Celsius hotter," they found.

"Sounds like a broken record – yes! But heat is still underreported, underrecorded and extremely deadly," Friederike Otto, who is part of the World Weather Attribution study, said on social media. "The world is not prepared for today's climate change, let alone the future."

Extreme heat is "becoming the silent killer," Ko Barrett, deputy secretary-general of the World Meteorological Organization, said in April.

"Heat-related mortality is widely under-reported and so the true scale of premature deaths and economic costs – in terms of reduced labor productivity, agricultural losses, and stress on the power grid - is not accurately reflected in the statistics," she said.

The report from the World Weather Attribution came a day ahead of another report from the WMO that found this April was the warmest one on record and the 11th consecutive month of record temperature worldwide.

The average surface air temperature last month was 15.03 degrees Celsius, about 59 degrees Fahrenheit, more than 1.5 degrees Celsius warmer than pre-industrial times. Scientists have warned that if the planet experiences persistent temperatures at that 1.5 threshold, it could cause significant impacts on weather events leading to global issues surrounding food and water availability, migration and infrastructure.

"The record temperatures were accompanied by high-impact weather events — including intense heat in many parts of Asia," the WMO said. "The heat also had a large impact on agriculture, causing crop damage and reduced yields, as well as on education, with holidays having to be extended and schools closed in several countries, affecting millions of students."

It will take years of this continued breaching of 1.5 degrees above preindustrial levels for the planet to officially mean humans have failed to achieve the goals of the Paris Agreement and launched the world into a more disastrous climate era. However, 11 months of record heat – and potentially beyond – indicates "early signs of getting perilously close to exceeding the long-term limit," the United Nations says.

"Every fraction of a degree of warming matters. With every additional increment of global warming, changes in extremes and risks become larger," the international agency says. "... We need to bend the global emissions curve — and the production and consumption of coal, oil, and gas - downwards, starting now. A wide range of solutions exist."

Arshad R. Zargar contributed to this report.