Thursday, May 23, 2024

 

In a Bull Market, Used Tankers May Be Worth More Than New Ones

Tanker players are paying a premium for near-term availability, according to BIMCO

Tanker under way
File image SHansche / iStock

PUBLISHED MAY 22, 2024 10:24 PM BY THE MARITIME EXECUTIVE

 

In an unusual sign of strength in the crude tanking sector, five-year-old Suezmaxes have become more expensive than newbuilds, according to the Baltic Exchange - a rare reversal reflecting high day rates. This could have the effect of making newbuilds look comparatively cheap, and could possibly spur a familiar pattern of overbuilding and overcapacity. 

"Secondhand tanker asset values have inflated rather aggressively over the last two years, moving up at a faster rate than freight rates. In some cases, five-year-old vessels are markedly more expensive than a newbuild order," reported analyst Urs Dur on behalf of the Baltic Exchange. "In our view, this market environment may lead to an overordering of tankers, something strong markets have spurred in the past."

Dur estimates that the breakeven day rate for a five-year-old Suezmax at today's prices would be about $30,000. The average time charter equivalent rate for a Suezmax for the last two years has been about $51,000, so this shows a strong potential for profit. However, the ten-year average day rate is $28,000. A secondhand buyer would lose money if day rates fell back to historic norms; a newbuild would be slightly cheaper and would still earn money in an average market.

For the owner who opts to buy new, there is a familiar wrinkle. Any newbuild would deliver 30 months from now. Since the order would take more than two years to fulfill, a newbuild would be a bet on the health of the future market, and the owner would not be able to capitalize on the strong earning potential of the current market while awaiting delivery.

Further, Dur noted, environmental rules are changing fast and will likely evolve within the next few years. New clean-fuel requirements or emissions regulations could roll out during the period when the vessel is under construction, and enter into  force by the time the new tanker delivers. 

"Despite these factors, the Suezmax newbuild order remains attractive and the orderbook will likely continue to grow, with history possibly repeating itself," Dur warned. 

 

Bird Flu is Now a Major Threat to Marine Life

The H5N1 virus is spreading rapidly among seabirds and sea mammals, causing deaths from pole to pole

Scientists from Peru’s national parks agency take samples from a dead sea lion suspected of falling victim to bird flu, 2023 (Peruvian government handout)
Scientists from Peru’s national parks agency examine a dead sea lion suspected of falling victim to bird flu, 2023 (Peruvian government handout)

PUBLISHED MAY 22, 2024 10:30 PM BY DIALOGUE EARTH

 

[By Fermín Koop] 

A deadly strain of avian influenza is spreading across the global ocean. Scientists estimate that it has caused the death of tens of millions of poultry and wild birds around the world. Officially called A(H5N1) clade 2.3.4.4b, it has also been detected in at least 48 mammal species and is strongly implicated in mass die-offs of sea lions and seals.

Bird flu was previously considered primarily a threat to poultry and secondarily a potential human pathogen. But it has now become a terrifying, albeit still largely unquantified, threat to marine life too.

Where is it?

The current troubling form of the virus was first detected in Europe in autumn 2020. At the end of 2021, it was discovered in North America and has since been recorded in wild birds in every US state.

The virus then went south and by December 2022 had reached the southern tip of South America. It has now been detected in Antarctica, as well as Africa and Asia. Only the Pacific Islands, Australia and New Zealand remain free of it.

How is it affecting ocean wildlife?

Populations of wild birds have been hit hard across the globe. At least 100,000 from 24 species had died in Peru’s protected areas after contacting the virus between November 2022 and mid-March 2023, a study found.

Various mammals have been infected by previous strains of H5N1, mainly dogs and cats and some animals classed as ‘semiaquatic’ such as mink. But the current strain has spread to significantly more species and been reported in 13 marine mammals, according to a March study.

Mass deaths have occurred. In Argentina, over 17,000 southern elephant seal pups were found dead on the Valdés Peninsula in a die-off attributed to the virus. There have been at least 24,000 sea lion deaths linked to it recorded in Peru, Chile, Argentina, Uruguay and Brazil.

Víctor Gamarra-Toledo is an author of the March study, and a researcher at the Natural History Museum of Peru’s San Agustín de Arequipa National University. He says the large number of deaths is undermining ecosystem services provided by the animals affected. So many birds have perished in Peru it is lowering the production of seabird excrement that farmers use as fertiliser, he told Dialogue Earth.

How bad could it get?

The virus is already exacerbating the predicament of several species of conservation concern. As well as sea lions and elephant seals, this includes marine otters and dolphins.

“It’s a real blow to some species and they will take a long time to recover. The bird flu also reached the Galapagos”, says Claire Smith, UK policy lead on avian influenza at the Royal Society for the Protection of Birds. Of the 56 native Galapagos bird species, 45 are endemic, meaning found only there.

Impacts on wild marine birds have varied widely. In the UK, there has been a 70% reduction of northern gannets at their key breeding ground of Bass Rock. But, on the other side of the world in Antarctica, Adélie penguins tested positive without showing any ill effects.

The true impact of the outbreak is hard to quantify.

“Any number of deaths is an underestimate. Birds and mammals can die in areas where there’s no surveillance and we don’t find out. We also don’t have much numbers from what’s happening in Africa. Millions of birds have died and the impact on populations is significant,” says Christian Walzer, executive director of health at the Wildlife Conservation Society.

How did this problem start?

Bird flu is nothing new in the poultry industry. These viruses are categorised as either low or highly pathogenic depending on their lethality to poultry. Highly pathogenic H5N1 was first detected in farmed geese in Guangdong, China, in 1996, and quickly spread through populations of captive, commercial birds.

What sets the most recent strain apart is the rapidity with which it spreads and the severity of the disease it causes among wild birds and mammals, experts told Dialogue Earth.

“It used to be present mostly in winter, with peaks of infection, and then a big drop. Now the infection is present all year round, generating many risks and more chances of transmission,” says Marcela Uhart, director of the Latin America program at the Karen C. Drayer Wildlife Health Center, University of California, Davis.

How is it spreading?

In birds, avian influenza primarily spreads through contact with the saliva, nasal secretions, or droppings of infected birds. Once it becomes prevalent among wild populations, it can spread globally as birds migrate, including to marine areas far from farms.

Scientists are not yet sure how it passes between birds and mammals. Many infected species are scavengers, suggesting that eating infected corpses could be involved. Healthy animals may also get the virus from contact with faeces from infected members of their own kind. Species that seem to be resistant to severe illness could still be spreading the virus.

In a study published in February, scientists report collecting brain samples from sea lions, one fur seal and a tern found dead on the shores of Argentina. They all tested positive for H5N1 and genome sequencing revealed that the virus was almost identical in each, with mutations that assisted spread in marine mammals.

Are humans at risk?

Humans can be infected with H5N1, but it is relatively rare and the risk to the public has been widely regarded as low. Most infections have been among those, such as poultry workers, who have had close contact with infected birds. A total of 20 countries have reported 882 cases of bird flu in humans since 2003, half of which were fatal, according to the US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention.

Experts advise avoiding close contact with sick or injured birds and mammals.

“If the virus can be transmitted between marine mammals, as it’s now believed, that’s a big problem for us [humans],” says Pablo Plaza, an Argentine veterinarian working at the Centro Científico Tecnológico Patagonia Norte. “The virus is here to stay, and while things seem to be calmer now, it can keep on surprising us.”

What can be done?

Detecting bird flu early is the primary line of defence, according to the World Organization for Animal Health (WOAH). Early detection and timely reporting of infected birds lets countries know which flu subtypes are in circulation. They can then limit the movements of poultry and monitor wildlife.

While there is a vaccine being used on poultry, WOAH says it must be part of a wider disease-control strategy. Culling is one of the recommendations, along with quarantining.

“It’s something we have control over, live poultry travels very long distances,” says Diana Bell, a UK conservation biologist based at the University of East Anglia. Bell suggests making farms self sufficient in rearing eggs and chicks, instead of exporting them internationally. She also advocates stopping the trend towards megafarms that contain over a million birds.

Researchers are trialling a vaccine for endangered condors in the US, but implementing this on a large scale in other wild birds would be difficult. “We can’t vaccinate wildlife; it would never end. It’s preferable for the virus to hit a population and for it to develop natural immunity,” says the Wildlife Conservation Society’s Walzer.

On 26 June 2023, veterinarian Mariana Cadena and zookeeper Fernanda Short collect blood from a brown booby suspected of having bird flu. They work in Rio de Janeiro, Brazil, at the Santa Ursula University Marine Animal Rehabilitation Centre. (Image: Bruna Prado, AP via Alamy)

What happens next?

The spread of the virus is overlapping with environmental changes due to climate change, and the latter could increase the problem of the former. In Chile, for example, the El Niño weather phenomenon had a strong impact last year on fish that birds rely on for food, placing more stress on animals and likely making them more susceptible to the virus.

Vivian Fu, Asian Flyways Initative lead at WWF-Hong Kong, says the ongoing bird flu disaster highlights the importance of a One Health approach. This involves looking at the close connection between the health of people, other animals and our shared environment.

For now, ocean researchers face a nervous wait to see where the virus appears next, how badly it harms the animals it infects, and how that reshapes our understanding of the threats to marine life.

“Over 40% of the Peruvian pelicans died because of the virus,” Uhart says. “A country might have a conservation strategy with marine protected areas and think that is sufficient to mitigate impacts to a species, but the virus brings a new layer of complexity.

“We might think a bird or a marine mammal is doing well based on their conservation status and the number of individuals out there. But then something like this happens and it changes everything.”

Fermín Koop is the Latin America managing editor at Dialogue Earth. Based in Buenos Aires, Argentina, he started working with the organisation in 2014 as a freelancer before transitioning to an editorial role. He is also a trainer and mentor for the Earth Journalism Network (EJN) and a teacher at the Argentine University of Enterprise (UADE). 

The opinions expressed herein are the author's and not necessarily those of The Maritime Executive.

 

DESANTISLAND

Florida teacher pay falls to 50th nationwide

Florida teacher pay falls to 50th nationwide

Despite Florida’s flourishing economy and increased capital, a new report from the National Education Association says the state ranks 50th nationwide in teacher compensation, down from 48th last year. CGTN’s Nitza Soledad Perez reports.

Far-right minister who visited contested Jerusalem site has long history of controversy


 Israel’s National Security Minister Itamar Ben-Gvir attends the weekly cabinet meeting in Jerusalem, Sunday, Sept. 10, 2023. Far-right National Security Minister Itamar Ben-Gvir visited Jerusalem’s most sensitive holy site, denouncing the decision from Spain, Ireland, and Norway to recognize a Palestinian state. 
(AP Photo/Ohad Zwigenberg, Pool, File)


 MDT, May 22, 2024

TEL AVIV, ISRAEL (AP) — Israel’s far-right national security minister, Itamar Ben-Gvir, visited Jerusalem’s most sensitive holy site on Wednesday in what he described as a protest against the recognition of a Palestinian state by three European countries.

It was the latest act of defiance by an ultranationalist settler leader who has transformed himself over the decades from an outlaw and provocateur into one of Israel’s most influential politicians.

In his Cabinet post, Ben-Gvir oversees the country’s police force. As a key coalition partner, Ben-Gvir also has the power to rob Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu of his parliamentary majority and force early elections.

Ben-Gvir has used his influence to push forward pet projects and encourage Netanyahu to press ahead with the war in Gaza against widespread calls to reach a cease-fire deal that would bring home hostages.

The stunning rise of Ben-Gvir, 48, is the culmination of years of efforts by the media-savvy lawmaker to gain legitimacy. But it also reflects a rightward shift in the Israeli electorate that brought his religious, ultranationalist ideology into the mainstream and diminished hopes for Palestinian independence.



Israel orders eviction of Palestinian family from east Jerusalem property, reigniting a legal battle

Here is a closer look at Ben-Gvir:

RUN-INS WITH THE LAW


Ben-Gvir has been convicted eight times for offenses that include racism and supporting a terrorist organization. As a teen, his views were so extreme that the army banned him from compulsory military service.

Ben-Gvir gained notoriety in his youth as a follower of the late racist rabbi Meir Kahane. He first became a national figure when Ben-Gvir famously broke a hood ornament off then-Prime Minister Yitzhak Rabin’s car in 1995.

“We got to his car, and we’ll get to him too,” he said, just weeks before Rabin was assassinated by a Jewish extremist opposed to his peace efforts with the Palestinians.

Two years later, Ben-Gvir took responsibility for orchestrating a campaign of protests, including death threats, that forced Irish singer Sinead O’Connor to cancel a concert for peace in Jerusalem.

MOVING TO THE MAINSTREAM

Ben-Gvir is trained as a lawyer and gained recognition as a successful defense attorney for extremist Jews accused of violence against Palestinians.

With a quick wit and cheerful demeanor, the outspoken Ben-Gvir also became a popular fixture in the media, paving his way to enter politics. He was first elected to parliament in 2021.

Ben-Gvir has called for deporting his political opponents, and in the past has encouraged police to open fire on Palestinian stone-throwers in a tense Jerusalem neighborhood while brandishing a pistol. As national security minister, he has encouraged police to take a tough line against anti-government protesters.

CONTROVERSIAL MINISTER

Ben-Gvir secured his Cabinet post after 2022 elections that put Netanyahu and his far-right partners, including Ben-Gvir’s Jewish Power party, into power.

“Over the last year I’ve been on a mission to save Israel,” Ben-Gvir told reporters before that election. “Millions of citizens are waiting for a real right-wing government. The time has come to give them one.”

Ben-Gvir has been a magnet of controversy throughout his tenure — encouraging the mass distribution of handguns to Jewish citizens, backing Netanyahu’s contentious attempt to overhaul the country’s legal system and frequently lashing out at U.S. leaders for perceived slights against Israel. He has threatened to bring down the government if Israel does not launch a full-fledged invasion of the southern Gaza city of Rafah.

Early this month, Ben-Gvir criticized Joe Biden when the U.S. president threatened to withhold certain military aid if Israel invades Rafah. Ben-Gvir, using a heart emoji in a post to “X,” wrote that Hamas loves Biden.

On Wednesday, Ben-Gvir toured the contested hilltop compound that is home to the Al Aqsa Mosque to denounce a decision from Spain, Ireland and Norway to recognize a Palestinian state.

Palestinians consider the mosque a national symbol and view such visits as provocative, though Ben-Gvir has frequently visited the site, revered by Jews as the Temple Mount, during tense periods. Tensions at the disputed compound have fueled past rounds of violence.

Ben-Gvir said he wanted to make a statement “from the holiest place for the people of Israel, which belongs only to the state of Israel.”

 NAKBA II

UNRWA: 75% of Gazans forcibly displaced since 7 October
UNRWA: 75% of Gazans forcibly displaced since 7 October
[22/May/2024]

GAZA May 22. 2024 (Saba) - The United Nations Relief and Works Agency for Palestine Refugees in the Near East (UNRWA) announced on Wednesday that 75 percent of Gazans have faced forced displacement, many of them four or five times since the seventh of last October.

"For thousands of Palestinian families there is nowhere to go, Zionist military operations and shelling are a constant threat, buildings have been reduced to rubble, and there is no safe place in Gaza," the agency said in a post on the X platform.

In a post earlier today, UNRWA stated that its staff in Khan Younis in the southern Gaza Strip "continue to provide support to residents by providing sanitation, water, waste collection and guidance."

"The challenges are enormous, including the scarcity of water, fuel and health resources," It said. Safe and unhindered access is needed to protect people in Gaza.

E.M
Germany says it will arrest Netanyahu as Israeli envoy appeals to Berlin to defy ICC

Israel's ambassador urges the German government to reject the "outrageous" ICC move

MAY 22, 2024 
JERUSALEM POST
German Chancellor Olaf Scholz and German Federal Government Spokesman and Head of the Federal Government's Press and Information Office Steffen Hebestreit attend the weekly cabinet meeting at the Chancellery in Berlin, Germany June 7, 2023
.(photo credit: REUTERS/ANNEGRET HILSE)

Israel’s Ambassador to Berlin, Ron Prosor, was rebuffed by German Chancellor Olaf Scholz’s government on Wednesday after the envoy made a dramatic appeal on X, formerly Twitter, to the Federal government to reject the ICC’s legitimacy fully.

Scholz’s spokesman, Steffen Hebestreit, was asked on Wednesday if the German government would execute an ICC arrest order against Prime Minister Netanyahu for alleged war crimes during Swords of Iron.

Hebestreit said, "Of course. Yes, we abide by the law."


On Tuesday, before Hebestreit’s announcement, Prosor wrote on X in both German and English, “This is outrageous! The German 'Staatsräson' is now being put to the test—no ifs or buts. This contrasts with the weak statements we hear from some institutions and political actors. The public statement that Israel has the right to self-defense loses credibility if our hands are tied as soon as we defend ourselves.”

Staatsräson is the German word that refers to Germany's pledge to ensure Israel’s security is part of its national security and interests. Former German Chancellor Angela Merkel declared during her 2008 Knesset speech that Israel is part of Germany’s raison d'etre—or state of being.

 
German Government Spokesman Steffen Hebestreit reacts as he presents the logo for the G7 summit in Germany 2022 at a news conference in Berlin, Germany 
(credit: REUTERS/ANNEGRET HILSE)

The ambassador continued, “ The Chief Prosecutor [of the ICC] equates a democratic government with Hamas, thereby demonizing and delegitimizing Israel and the Jewish people. He has completely lost his moral compass. Germany has a responsibility to readjust this compass. This disgraceful political campaign could become a nail in the coffin for the West and its institutions. Do not let it come to that!"

ICC formed in response to Holocaust

The International Criminal Court was formed in response to Nazi Germany’s extermination of 6 million Jews. Germany is a generous donor to the ICC. The possibility that a German government would arrest and deport an Israeli Prime Minister and defense minister if they stepped foot on German soil in light of the country’s Hitler movement history has triggered shocking reports in the German media and on social media.

Germany seems to be working at cross purposes in its diplomatic messaging. On Tuesday, a spokesman for the German foreign ministry said about the ICC arrest warrant request that “The simultaneous application for arrest warrants against the Hamas leaders on the one hand and the two Israeli officials on the other has given the false impression of equivalence.”

Separately but related, Tal Heinrich, Israeli government spokeswoman, sharply criticized the German civil servant, Michael Blume, who is tasked with fighting antisemitism in the state of Baden-Württemberg but has blamed Israel’s government for Hamas’s October 7 mass murder, according to German experts on antisemitism.

Heinrich responded to reports about Blume denigrating the Israeli icon, Orde Wingate, Blume’s calls on the Israeli government to dismantle its security fence to stop Hamas, Palestinian Islamic Jihad, and Fatah terrorism, and his sympathy for the ICC case against the Jewish state.

Hamas slaughtered nearly 1,200 people on October 7 and kidnapped over 250.

Heinrich told the Post on Tuesday that “One of the very first statements of the PM in the beginning of the war - right after October 7 - underscored that this is a time for moral clarity. Comments that we have seen from Mr. Blume in the past about the Israeli-Palestinian conflict and throughout this war demonstrate that he often lacks moral clarity. “

The Israeli government spokeswoman, Heinrich, added, “Whether or not he should stay in his role is not in my place to say. But generally speaking, when you’re on a mission to fight antisemitism you have to be able to clearly differentiate between good and evil. There’s no grey zone when it comes to the hatred of Jews.”

On Tuesday, the day the ICC Prosecutor Karim Khan said he is seeking to arrest Netanyahu and Defense Minister Gallant, Blume took to X to again trash the Israeli national hero, Orde Wingate, as a “war criminal.” Orde Wingate was termed the “father of IDF” by former MK and Israeli Ambassador to the US, Michael Oren, who told the Post in 2022 that Blume “should resign" because of his attacks on Wingate. The IDF also rebuked Blume at the time for his slashing criticism of Wingate.

The timing of Blume’s attack on Wingate was noticed by Blume’s critics as he lashed out at Wingate and defended the ICC Prosecutor Karim Khan against Netnanyhu’s charge that Khan’s decision was antisemitic. Blume also endorsed an X post declaring that the decision to issue an arrest warrant for Netanyahu was “right.”

Blume previously “liked” an X post and reposted it, calling on Netanyahu to “tear down” the security fence in Judea and Samaria that has saved the lives of thousands of Jews and Arabs, according to the IDF. Blume compared the anti-terror fence to the Berlin Wall. Brigadier General (Res.) Amir Avivi, who is the head of the Israel Defense and Security Forum, told the Post, "The time has come to fire Blume, who, instead of siding with Israel amid the most horrific attack since the Holocaust on innocent civilians, once again confuses who the good guys are and from where pure evil emanates. Israel builds walls to defend itself against Hamas and other terror organizations. Time has come to hold Palestinian leadership accountable and Blume as well."

Blume has delivered talks across Germany that mainly pin the blame on Israel for October 7 and not Hamas, according to his critics. He told students at the University of Tübingen about Netanyahu that “His government coalition with right-wing extremists and ultra-Orthodox divided Israeli society by attempting to abolish the separation of powers and relocated the Israeli army to the settlers in the West Bank instead of protecting its own south.”

Natan Sharansky, a one-time Soviet dissident and former Israeli government minister, termed an X post by Blume “anti-Semitic, “ in which Blume suggested he was being surveilled by an alleged Israeli intelligence company. Blume provided no evidence.

Sharansky said last year there was "no doubt that his[Blume] tweet…is anti-Semitic. As it demonizes our people and goes to classic anti-Semitic conspiracy theory. It is a legitimate question why should the German government pay him for fighting anti-Semitism."

Matthias Gauger, a spokesman for the Green Party governor, Winfried Kretschmann, in Baden-Württemberg declined to comment. Kretschmann has faced criticism for supporting Blume’s alleged antisemitism and providing funds to an antisemitic BDS preacher in the West Bank, according to a Post report.

On Wednesday, the Jerusalem Post sent press queries to the German foreign ministry about Prosor’s X post and Chancellor Scholz’s decision to arrest Netanyahu if the warrant is implemented.

WWIII

Manila-Beijing row worsens as China yet to show evidence of ‘secret deal’

The Asian superpower has made such agreements before, but its latest claims may be a divide-and-conquer tactic, analysts say.
Camille Elemia
2024.05.22
Manila


Manila-Beijing row worsens as China yet to show evidence of ‘secret deal’Vice Adm. Alberto Carlos, chief of the Philippine military’s Western Command (left), speaks to the media with military chief Gen. Romeo Brawner Jr., in Palawan, Philippines, Aug. 10, 2023.
 Eloisa Lopez/AFP

Manila’s row with Beijing has worsened in recent weeks, as China insists that the Philippines has violated their alleged secret deals and concessions on the South China Sea, but has not shown any evidence to back its claim.

For its part, the Philippines has consistently denied the existence of such deals or concessions, with some observers saying China’s assertion is part of its divide-and-conquer strategy, and other analysts noting that Beijing has a record of secret agreements that breach global regulations.

The recent controversy between the Philippines and China centers around an alleged secret recording Beijing’s embassy in Manila made of a phone conversation, and released what they said was its transcript to some media organizations.

The call, they said, was between a senior Filipino military official and a Chinese diplomat, during which Manila reportedly agreed on a new model for arranging notifications of resupply missions to Second Thomas (Ayungin) Shoal.

Vice Adm. Alberto Carlos, the senior Philippine military official in question, said Wednesday that he did have such a conversation with a Chinese diplomat but had not consented to its being recorded.

“I did not enter into any secret deals that will compromise the interests of our country. …I have not compromised the country’s territorial integrity,” he said at a hearing in the Senate on Wednesday.

“I have not given up our sovereign rights and entitlement. I am a soldier for the Filipino.  I remain a loyal servant of the republic.”

Carlos had been replaced and put on forced leave at the general military headquarters after the controversy broke. The Philippine military did not explain why, only saying that his reassignment was not a punishment.

‘China has relied on such deals’

This development may not help ease Beijing-Manila tensions.

On Wednesday, China reiterated its claim that it had “solid evidence” these deals with the Philippines existed but did not say why it has not produced this so-called proof.

“Whether it’s [a] ‘gentlemen’s agreement,’ or … internal understandings, or the ‘new model’ reached between China and the Philippines on properly managing the situation in the South China Sea, they all have clear timelines and are supported by solid evidence,” Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesperson Wang Wenbin said on Wednesday

“No one can deny their existence,” he insisted.

And China has relied on such deals which have worked in its favor in the past, analysts pointed out. 

“China is quite known for its preference for secretive deals that do not embody legitimate rules and norms of international relations,” Don McLain Gill, a Manila-based geopolitical analyst, told BenarNews on Monday.

He cited two examples: the 1963 secret territorial pact between Pakistan and China and the alleged secret deal between China and Cambodia that allowed the Chinese Navy to have an extended and exclusive access to Phnom Penh’s naval base.

Both China and Cambodia denied the secret agreements, of course, but Western officials and groups believed otherwise.

“Such deals favor China because while they are clouded in ambiguity, they still serve the strategic purpose of Beijing. However, such deals often put the other country in the hot seat,” said Gill, who’s also a lecturer at the De La Salle University.

‘Divide and conquer’

Antonio Carpio, a Philippine South China Sea expert, has another explanation he believes is behind the controversy.

Beijing’s claims about alleged internal agreements with Manila are meant to create divisions among Philippine officials, said Carpio, who is also a former Supreme Court justice.

PH-CH-SCS-2.jpg

The Philippine Coast Guard escorts Filipino fishing boats joining a convoy to Scarborough Shoal, May 15, 2024. [Jojo Riñoza/BenarNews]

“China will talk to the lower echelons and they’ll say, ‘These officials agreed with us,’ ” he told BenarNews in May, explaining Beijing’s alleged tactic.

“That is not the way [to do things]. That is very undiplomatic. You must go through the proper channels,” Carpio told BenarNews in an interview in early May.

Former President Rodrigo Duterte’s pro-China policy during his six-year tenure (2016-2022) had allowed, among other things, unofficial talks, verbal agreements and deals without official documents as proof, Carpio said. And Beijing may have thought it could continue that policy, he said. 

‘Duterte’s legacy’

Rommel Jude Ong, a retired Philippine Navy official, agreed with Carpio.

“We are dealing with the legacy of Duterte's foreign policy posture,” Ong told BenarNews.

“The Chinese Communist Party may be using informal concessions made by the previous administration as leverage and to compel the [current] government to conform to these practices.” 

One example is from 2021 when, according to China, it entered into a deal with the Duterte administration on the rusty ship Manila uses as its base on Second Thomas Shoal.

China says Manila agreed not to repair or build structures on the ship and in return, provided Beijing’s non-interference when the Philippines sends troops and supplies to the military outpost.

The former Philippines president first denied then admitted entering into a verbal agreement with Beijing on this issue.

PH-CH-SCS-3.jpg
A boat’s crew members and volunteers on a Filipino civilian convoy sleep on their way back to Subic in Zambales province in the Philippines, after sailing near Scarborough Shoal, May 16, 2024. [Jojo Riñoza/BenarNews]

One security analyst said that governments sometimes enter into behind-the-scenes deals to help settle disputes without pressure from their domestic audiences.

“Governments … avoid making the impression of compromising their countries’ positions in disputed spaces by entering into such agreements,” Lucio Pitlo III, an analyst with the Asia Pacific Pathways to Progress Foundation, told BenarNews.

“But exposing such deals may put Beijing in a difficult spot at home and may force them to take a more hardline and uncompromising stance so as not to appear weak in their domestic public.”

Malaysia, Vietnam, Brunei, and Taiwan also have overlapping claims in the South China Sea.

Latin America’s Tourism Boom: A $385 Billion Lift to the Economy


By Adele Cardin
RIOTIMES
May 22, 2024

In 2024, Latin America’s tourism sector will boost the regional economy by $385.9 billion, heralding a bright future.

This marks a 6% increase over pre-pandemic levels, signaling a significant economic rebound.

The World Travel and Tourism Council (WTTC) views this upsurge as a key driver of economic revitalization.

The sector will generate 18.2 million jobs, making tourism a major employment source for one in twelve workers.

Julia Simpson, WTTC’s CEO, highlights tourism’s role in driving economic growth and job creation, showcasing regional resilience post-crisis.

Tourist spending is also on the rise, anticipated to hit $60.5 billion, outpacing last year’s figures and pre-COVID-19 levels.

Domestic tourism is contributing significantly, with spending expected to reach $226 billion, surpassing 2019 figures
.
 (Photo Internet reproduction)

In 2023, tourism accounted for 7.8% of Latin America’s total economic output, amounting to $367.4 billion and creating over 110,000 new jobs since 2019.

Spending by international tourists reached $54.5 billion, while domestic spending hit $219.7 billion.

The future looks even brighter, with tourism expected to contribute over $498 billion to the region’s economy by 2034, equivalent to 8.3% of GDP.

The sector is projected to support nearly 22.43 million jobs by then, representing 9.6% of the workforce.

Latin America’s tourism sector is a dynamic economic force, set to transform the economic landscape and provide numerous opportunities.

This growth is not merely incremental; it represents a significant shift, underscoring the region’s vibrant spirit and potential.
Dependence on Tourism

The region of Latin America and the Caribbean is the most dependent on tourism globally.

Tourism’s economic impact in Latin America varies significantly, with Mexico showing much greater dependence than Brazil.

The IDB highlights that from 2017 to 2021, tourism made up over 16% of Mexico’s GDP and jobs, compared to about 10% in Uruguay, Argentina, and Chile.

The Tourism Dependency Index (TDI) scores countries from 0 to 100 based on their reliance on tourism for GDP, employment, and exports.

Brazil ranks 130th globally, indicating lower dependence, while Mexico and Argentina are more reliant, ranking 62nd and 86th, respectively.

 30,000 protesters surround Taiwan parliament decrying proposed parliamentary reform law

30,000 protesters surround Taiwan parliament decrying proposed parliamentary reform lawNews
Kanshui0943CC BY-SA 4.0, via Wikimedia Commons

30,000 Taiwanese demonstrators surrounded the Legislative Yuan, the island’s parliament, on Tuesday protesting against the legislative majority’s attempts to enact new laws by allegedly violating procedural justice and the island’s constitution.

The controversies surround two bills, the parliamentary reform and a transport network bill, with a proposed cost of nearly $62 billion, equal to the island’s annual expenditure. The controversy surrounding the bill regards a possible violation of committee autonomy.  The legislative majority, comprising the Kuomintang and the Taiwan People’s Party, refused to discuss each provision in the legislative committee with the ruling Democratic Progressive Party and preserved all provisions for the next stage “Consult Among Political Parties.”The legislative majority continued its refusal to negotiate at this stage and proceeded to the second reading last Friday, after the end of the statutory freeze period for the negotiation to take place.

As a result of the refusal to negotiate, the legislative majority put forward 28 different versions of the parliamentary reform bill and only disclosed, on Friday night after the planned meeting time, the final version to be voted on to lawmakers belonging to the ruling party. This version was unavailable on the legislature’s official website during the second reading.

Taipei City Council member Miao Poya criticised the legislative majority for flagrantly flouting the legislature’s procedural rules. Miao further explained that preliminary stages before the second reading—the committee’s review stage and “Consult Among Political Parties”—are important for public consultation and supervision. As a conventional practice, Miao said, the committee should aim to settle disputes on two-thirds of the provisions before putting a bill to the second reading. According to Miao, contrary to what the legislative majority have done, no major amendments should have been proposed at this stage.

Tuesday’s meeting at the legislature passed, by an anonymous show of hands, only 10 provisions as a result of the ruling party’s filibustering. One controversial amendment is Article 25 of the Law Governing the Legislative Yuan’s Power, which prohibits government officials from refusing to answer the Legislative Yuan’s questions or “counter-questioning” lawmakers. Criminal liability will be attached to refusal to reply and misrepresentation.

The transport network bill is equally controversial. The bill proposes a high-speed railway that connects the whole island. The bill alleged that the central government, in the past, failed to conduct a national plan, rendering unequal transport development in different counties and cities. Regardless, the ruling party argued that the bill involves vast transport network planning, falling squarely within the executive’s expertise and constitutional power. The ruling party contested that the Executive Yuan is entitled to apply for a constitutional interpretation from the Constitutional Court on Article 70, which stipulates that the legislature has no power to increase the expenditures in a budgetary bill. The Constitutional Court explained that the rationale is to prevent the increased expenditure from transforming into an extra tax burden on citizens.

Many compare the protest with the 2014 Sunflower Movement. Protesters occupied the parliament for 24 days to express their disapproval of the Cross-Strait Service Trade Agreement and a violation of procedural justice.

The legislature will continue to review the parliamentary reform bill, and later the transport network bill, on Thursday, May 24.