New coral disease forecasting system led by University of Hawai'i team

UNIVERSITY OF HAWAII AT MANOA

 

IMAGE: 

THE GREAT BARRIER REEF, SEEN FROM A SCENIC FLIGHT NEAR AIRLIE BEACH, QUEENSLAND. 

 

view more 

CREDIT: AYANADAK123, WIKIMEDIA COMMONS.

Research led by the University of Hawaiʻi at Mānoa Hawaiʻi Institute of Marine Biology (HIMB) has led to a new tool for forecasting coral disease that could help conservationists step in at the right times with key interventions. Ecological forecasts are critical tools for conserving and managing marine ecosystems, but few forecasting systems can account for the wide range of ecological complexities in near-real-time.

Using ecological and marine environmental conditions, the Multi-Factor Coral Disease Risk product predicts the risk of two diseases across reefs in the central and western Pacific and along the east coast of Australia. An article introducing the new tool was published in Ecological Applications.

The tool can be accessed through the U.S. National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) Coral Reef Watch program, and can help end users detect early changes in the environment and better protect coral reef ecosystems.

“Partnering with NOAA Coral Reef Watch, our team developed ecological forecasts to predict the times and conditions when coral disease outbreaks are most likely to occur,” said NASA-funded Principal Investigator and HIMB Interim Director Megan Donahue.

“We are really excited about this new tool,” said lead author, Jamie Caldwell, of High Meadows Environmental Institute at Princeton University. “Users can employ this tool to make decisions about how to manage coral health, similar to how we use weather forecasts to decide how to pack for an upcoming trip.”

More than half a billion people depend on Earth’s coral reefs, and ensuring their resilience in the face of many threats is an ongoing challenge for managers. Tools like this help ensure these vital ecosystems survive.

Understanding localized risks

Insights gleaned from the tool can help managers better understand localized risks of coral disease and develop timely strategies for intervention.

“A key project element was the consultation with and input from coral reef managers from across the Pacific, including here in Australia,” said Professor Scott Heron, a collaborator from James Cook University. “We’ve also provided several training sessions in the various aspects of how the tool is used so that stakeholders in the varying locations have the best opportunity to inform effective reef management.”

Coral reefs are the most biologically diverse, species-rich marine ecosystem on Earth. They are culturally significant to Indigenous people throughout the world, and they provide food, jobs, recreation, medicine and coastline protection from storms and erosion. While disease is a natural part of marine ecosystems, increased runoff, global climate change and a slough of human impacts stress corals and cause disease.

The Multi-Factor Coral Disease Risk Product was developed by HIMB, in close collaboration with NOAA Coral Reef Watch, James Cook University, University of Newcastle and University of New South Wales.

Deep coral ecosystems 

Mesophotic coral ecosystems, such as this one found at 230 feet in Maui's 'Au'au Channel, are populated with many of the same fish species found on shallow reefs.

 

CREDIT

NOAA and Hawaii Undersea Research Laboratory

Jamie Caldwell conducts a coral health survey on Hawaiʻi Island. 

CREDIT

Courtney Couch

---

JOURNAL

Ecological Applications

DOI

10.1002/eap.2961 

METHOD OF RESEARCH

Computational simulation/modeling

ARTICLE TITLE

Multi-Factor Coral Disease Risk: A new product for early warning and management

 

Trout in mine-polluted rivers are genetically ‘isolated’

UNIVERSITY OF EXETER

 

IMAGE: 

A BROWN TROUT

view more 

CREDIT: DANIEL OSMOND

Trout living in rivers polluted by metal from old mines across the British Isles are genetically “isolated” from other trout, new research shows.

Researchers analysed brown trout at 71 sites in Britain and Ireland, where many rivers contain metal washed out from disused mines.

While trout in metal-polluted rivers appear healthy, they are genetically distinct – and a lack of diversity in these populations makes them vulnerable to future threats.

By comparing the DNA of trout in rivers with and without metal pollution, the researchers found that metal-tolerant trout populations split from the wider species during periods of peak mining activity.  

The study, by the universities of Exeter and Cardiff, was carried out in four regions: west Wales, northeast England, southwest England and southeast Ireland.

“We found massively reduced genetic diversity in some of these trout populations inhabiting metal-impacted waters,” said Professor Jamie Stevens, from the University of Exeter.

“These fish carry a high burden of metals, with toxic binding of dissolved metals to their gills causing suffocation, but trout that can tolerate this have emerged in polluted rivers.

“If fish without this tolerance swim into these rivers, they must either leave or die from that exposure.

“This means the metal-tolerant fish are genetically isolated, not exchanging genes with other trout populations.

“So, while these fish may be healthy where they are, the genetic diversity that allowed them to adapt to this rapid change in their environment is now lacking – leaving them more vulnerable to future changes.”

Common metal pollutants in former mining areas include lead and copper, and many fish and other species in these rivers have already been wiped out.

The emergence of metal-resistant trout, with high genetic differentiation from neighbouring populations and reduced diversity, was seen in populations inhabiting metal-polluted rivers in Cornwall, Wales and northeast England.

“This is likely the result of selection pressure – evolution driven in this case by survival, or non-survival, depending on the ability to withstand metal pollution,” said Dr Daniel Osmond, of the  Westcountry Rivers Trust, who conducted the research as part of his PhD at Exeter.

The study found the highest levels of genetic isolation in rivers that were both polluted with metal and affected by physical barriers such as dams and weirs.

Metal pollution levels fluctuate, often rising during periods of high rainfall.

Dr Osmond explained: “Throughout different periods of history, these mined regions have been globally important in their industrial production of many metals. This however has left polluted landscapes such as West Cornwall, which is effectively a giant honeycomb of old mines.

“When rain comes, these can fill with water and that can flow out into rivers.”

Freshwater migratory fish have declined significantly in many areas and, while trout are not considered to be a threatened species, the study shows trout may be more vulnerable than previously believed.

The researchers say that reducing mine water wash-out and the removal of physical barriers in rivers could help to reduce genetic isolation.

The study used simulations of populations through time, modelling different historical evolutionary scenarios and the effects of these on the genetic diversity of populations, comparing these with the sampled populations today, to predict which evolutionary scenarios were most credible.

Funders of the research included the Natural Environment Research Council, the Game & Wildlife Conservation Trust and the EU Interreg SAMARCH project.

The paper, published in the journal Diversity and Distributions, is entitled: “Living in a post-industrial landscape: repeated patterns of genetic divergence in brown trout (Salmo trutta L.) across the British Isles.”

Mine water flowing into the River Ystwyth

CREDIT

Daniel Osmond

JOURNAL

Diversity and Distributions

DOI

10.1111/ddi.13854 

ARTICLE TITLE

Living in a post-industrial landscape: repeated patterns of genetic divergence in brown trout (Salmo trutta L.) across the British Isles.

ARTICLE PUBLICATION DATE

30-May-2024

Sri Lankan official says US Congress ‘bought’ and requests ban on more Tamil diaspora groups

15 years on, the Tamil survivors of Sri Lanka's brutal civil war live in fear — and disempowerment

June 01, 2024 
By Associated Press

Thangarasa Kirubakaran, a former rebel fighter who was disabled in the civil war, gets help from his wife as he sits in a wheelchair outside his home in Mullaitivu, Sri Lanka, May 6, 2023.

MULLAITIVU, SRI LANKA —

At the site of a bloody battlefield that marked the end of Sri Lanka's civil war, Singaram Soosaimuthu fishes every day with his son, casting nets and reeling them in.

It is a skill he has known for much of his life — and one that he had to relearn after a devastating injury. The former Tamil fighter lost both legs in 2009 as the nation's generation-long civil war drew to a close and the Tamils retreated in defeat.

Making something of himself despite his injuries brought Soosaimuthu success — an achievement in which he finds profound meaning. He sees his fellow ethnic Tamils in the same light: To regain their voice, they must thrive.

But defeat — bloody, protracted and decisive — has brought Sri Lanka's minority Tamil community to a point of despair.

Some parents have given up hope of ever learning the fate of the thousands of missing children. Parts of the Tamil lands are decimated, with poor infrastructure and fewer economic opportunities. Survivors have lived under surveillance for years, and many now feel that members of the rising generation have grown too fearful and apathetic toward speaking up for their rights.

"There is a clear agenda underway to degenerate a defeated community," says Selvin Ireneus, a social activist based in Jaffna, the Tamils' northern cultural heartland.

The government, he says, doesn't want today's Tamils to be politically evolved. After fighting ended, he asserts, narcotics and other vices have been systematically introduced into the region. "They only want them to eat, drink and enjoy and not have a political ideology," Ireneus said. "This has happened with all defeated communities in the world."

The island nation of 20 million is overwhelmingly ethnically Sinhalese, with the Tamil community making up about 11% of the population. The separatist civil war broke out in 1983 after years of failed attempts to share power within a unified country, with Tamil fighters — known as the Liberation Tigers of Tamil Eelam, or simply the Tamil Tigers — eventually creating a de facto independent homeland in the country's north.

The group was crushed in a 2009 government offensive. The war killed at least 100,000 on both sides, and left many more missing.

Though not all Tamils were part of or supported the Tamil Tiger rebel group, their defeat has effectively become a political defeat to the community. They have lost their bargaining power.

Ethnic Tamil students attend class ahead of the Sri Lankan Advance Level examination in Jaffna, Sri Lanka, May 5, 2024.

"What is remaining now is a very small community, and they don't have the courage ... to show dissent," says K.T. Ganeshalingam, head of political science at the University of Jaffna.

Sri Lanka's government had promised the United Nations and countries like India and the United States that they would share power with the Tamil-majority areas to resolve the causes that led to the civil war. However, successive governments have not followed up.

Fifteen years on, some in Tamil areas are still in denial that the armed campaign has been defeated and that the rebel leader Velupillai Prabhakaran, who was seen as invincible, has been killed. Sections of the expatriate Tamils in Europe have been claiming that Prabhakaran would return soon to take on the campaign to the next stage, including a woman who claims to be his daughter and is said to be collecting donations in his name.

Prabhakaran's nephew in Denmark, Karthic Manoharan, says the time has come to put a stop to the rumors and state, emphatically, that the leader is dead.

"We don't have any doubt regarding (his death) because he loved his country so much. And he's not a coward to run from the country and live in another country, in a different country to save himself, his wife and his daughter," Manoharan says.

Such beliefs are more than simply inaccurate, says Ganeshalingam; they're genuinely harmful to any possible future that the Tamil people are trying to chart. He wonders: "If I have not grasped the fact that I am defeated, how can I rise from that?"

Discussing the Tamil Tigers' defeat, their past mistakes and even Prabhakaran's death is discouraged in Tamil society, especially in the diaspora. Ganeshalingam says such attitudes have created a stagnation in Tamil politics.

Political leaders are divided and are in disarray. A political alliance that the Tamil Tigers formed is fragmented with many leaders breaking away to form their own parties. Civil activists are now working to unify them and strengthen their bargaining position ahead of the presidential election later this year.

In the villages of Mullaitivu district, where the final battle between government forces and the Tamil Tigers unfolded, many men are addicted to narcotics and alcohol, forcing women to be the family's main breadwinners, says Yogeswari Dharmabaskaran, a social worker in the Udaiyarkattu area of Mullaitivu district. School dropouts soar in the villages, she says, as boys find easy money through selling narcotics, illegal tree-felling and the mining of river sand.

In Jaffna, local politician Thiyagaraja Nirosh says family elders discourage young people from discussing political rights. Because of that, it is difficult to find younger candidates to run in local elections.

"There is fear that talking politics is dangerous. Many family elders do not encourage talking politics," Nirosh says "The reason is that there has been no justice for the past killings. They see no guarantee that such incidents won't recur."

Thayalan Kalaipriya, a former rebel, wonders about the future often. She says her many losses have made her deeply desire unity among all Sri Lankans; at the same time, she says it is painful to realize their efforts to win political rights have been wasted.

Former rebels often do not receive adequate support and at times ex-fighters, like those who conscripted children at the height of the war, are treated with resentment, although she says some respect their commitment and sacrifice.

She finds solace by working with her young children, educating them and helping to give them a good life in a land she hopes is free of civil war and the sad echoes it has caused.

"We teach our children about what happened," she says, "but never to seek revenge."

Sri Lankan official says US Congress ‘bought’ and requests ban on more Tamil diaspora groups

 01 June 2024

A senior Sri Lankan official told reporters in Colombo that several US Congress members have been “bought over with money” by the Tamil diaspora and called for an extension of a ban on several US-based groups.

Sarath Weerasekera, the Chairman of the Sectoral Oversight Committee on National Security and former Public Security Minister told reporters in Colombo that members of Congress had been “bought” after a resolution was introduced calling for self-determination for Eelam Tamils and a democratic independence referendum.

“Even though we defeated one of the most ruthless terrorist organizations in the world, that several countries around the world had proscribed, we can see that the American government is partnering with them to give their cause legitimacy,” he said.

“There are three LTTE fronts in the US; the Tamil Americans United Political Action Committee, PEARL - People for Equality and Relief in Lanka and Federation of Global Tamils,” he continued. “They are breakaway groups from the LTTE. I have asked that these three organizations be banned in Sri Lanka.”

Reading out the resolution introduced in US Congress, which includes recognising the genocide committed by the Sri Lankan state, Weerasekera said that these proposals show how “far congressmen have been bought over by money”.

“This is a dangerous issue,” he said calling on his government to take steps to combat it. “We are totally against such moves.”

Commenting further on the sanctioning of individuals by several countries, Weerasekera questioned if denying a visa is how countries around the world wish to show their support to Sri Lanka.

“The LTTE is an organization that many countries have proscribed has been defeated by us, so is this how the international community supports our efforts, by denying us visas?” he asked. “It is wrong. It goes all efforts to defeat terrorism.”

Weerasekera also went on to claim that the Geneva Convention adding that Protocol III does not empower countries to impose sanctions and deny visas to individuals. “The protocol does not make provisions for individuals who waged wars to be charged with crimes,” he said. “We should ask the UNHRC if they are flouting the regulations which they must abide by.”

The resolution, which was introduced into US Congress last month, was brought as Tamils around the world prepared to mark 15 years since the Mullivaikkal genocide.

The resolution calls for the “nonrecurrence of past violence, including the Tamil Genocide, by supporting the right to self-determination of Eelam Tamil people and their call for an independence referendum for a lasting peaceful resolution”.

It goes on to detail historic Tamil support for independence and how “similar conflicts have successfully been democratically, peacefully, and legally resolved by exercising the right to self-determination by the people in countries such as South Sudan, Montenegro, East Timor, Bosnia, Eritrea, and Kosovo via independence referendums with support from the United States and other countries”.

UN votes to end Iraq political mission established after 2003 U.S.-led invasion toppled Saddam Hussein

EDITH M. LEDERER

UNITED NATIONS

THE ASSOCIATED PRESs

The United Nations Security Council voted unanimously Friday to end the UN political mission in Iraq established in 2003 following the United States-led invasion that toppled Saddam Hussein to co-ordinate post-conflict humanitarian and reconstruction efforts, and to help restore a representative government in the country.

The Iraqi government asked the council in a May 8 letter to wrap up the mission by the end of 2025 and that’s what the resolution does: It extends the mandate of the United Nations Assistance Mission in Iraq, known as UNAMI, for a final 19 months until Dec. 31, 2025 when all its work will cease.

The U.S.-sponsored resolution asks Secretary-General Antonio Guterres to prepare “a transition and liquidation plan” in consultation with the Iraqi government by Dec. 31, 2024, so UNAMI can start transferring its tasks and withdrawing staff and assets.

The council said it supports Iraq’s continuing stabilization efforts, including its ongoing fight against the Islamic State group and al-Qaida extremists and their affiliates.

In 2014, the Islamic State group declared a caliphate in large parts of Iraq and Syria and attracted tens of thousands of supporters from around the world. The extremists were defeated by a U.S.-led military coalition in Iraq in 2017 and in Syria in 2019, but its sleeper cells remain in both countries.

Iraq is also seeking to wind down the military coalition formed to fight the IS. The roughly 2,500 U.S. troops are scattered around the country, largely in military installations in Baghdad and in the north. Iraqi Prime Minister Mohammed Shia al-Sudani has contended that the Iraqi security forces are capable of dealing with the remaining IS cells in the country and the coalition’s presence is no longer needed.

Al-Sudani’s office expressed its “welcome and appreciation” for the Security Council vote and said in a statement that the council decision “came as a result of the tangible progress that Iraq is witnessing at various levels.”

U.N. spokesperson Stephane Dujarric said secretary-general Guterres and UNAMI are “fully committed” to fulfilling the tasks in the resolution and “the United Nations remains strongly committed to supporting Iraq in its aspirations for a peaceful and secure future.”

Guterres notes “significant achievements” in Iraq since UNAMI was established in August 2003, Dujarric said, pointing to the mission’s assistance in advancing an inclusive political dialogue in the country, holding elections, promoting accountability, protecting human rights and co-ordinating the return and reintegration of people who are displaced within the country.

The resolution adopted Friday to close the UNAMI mission expresses support for Iraq’s reform efforts aimed at fighting corruption, respecting and protecting human rights, delivering essential services to its people, creating jobs and diversifying the economy.

It asks the secretary-general to streamline UNAMI’s tasks ahead of the mission’s closure to focus on providing advice, support and technical assistance to the government to strengthen preparations for free elections, including for the federal Parliament and for the Parliament in the Kurdistan region.

It also authorizes UNAMI to facilitate progress toward finally resolving outstanding issues between Iraq and Kuwait, stemming from Saddam Hussein’s invasion of its smaller neighbour in August 1990.

In addition, the resolution says UNAMI should help with the return of internally displaced Iraqis and those in Syria, with providing health care and other services and with economic development. And it also authorizes the mission to “promote accountability and the protection of human rights, and judicial and legal reform.”

U.S. deputy ambassador Robert Wood welcomed the resolution’s unanimous adoption and plans for an orderly wind-down of UNAMI.

“We all recognize that Iraq has changed dramatically in recent years and UNAMI’s mission needed to be realigned as part of our commitment to fostering a secure, stable and sovereign Iraq,” he told the council.

Russia’s deputy UN ambassador Anna Evstigneeva stressed that what was important for Moscow in voting for the resolution was that the United States took into account the priorities Iraq wanted UNAMI to focus on in its final months.

“We are convinced that in the 20 years since its establishment UNAMI has fully realized its potential to assist in the restoration of Iraqi statehood and that the people of Iraq are now ready to assume full responsibility for the country’s political future,” she said. “We express our firm support for Iraq sovereignty and oppose any interference in the country’s internal affairs. That is an imperative.”

'We exist': S. Korea's first LGBTQ councillor tackles inclusion

Hieun SHIN
Fri, 31 May 2024 

South Korea's first openly gay legislator Cha Hae-young, elected two years ago, says there is a long way to go to make the country's politics inclusive (Anthony WALLACE)


South Korea's first openly gay legislator may have cracked the ruling party's rainbow ceiling but admits there is a long way to go to make the country's politics inclusive.

In a milestone celebrated by the LGBTQ community, Cha Hae-young was elected to the Mapo district council on June 1, 2022 -- the same day as Seoul's annual LGBTQ Pride march.

Two years later, Asia's largest queer festival is once again being shunted away from the capital's central plaza after city officials said Saturday's planned celebrations could "provoke social conflicts".

The annual event attracts support from across the region, as well as strong opposition, especially from Christian groups.

Cha acknowledged many people in South Korea found it hard to discuss sexuality and LGBTQ matters, but said it was important that there was more public discussion of these issues in order to move forward.

Even within Cha's party, which holds the majority in parliament, "there is no strategy for how to discuss these opinions with the public."

"We need to show the people that we (LGBTQ people) exist," Cha, who uses they/them pronouns, told AFP.

Much of Cha's work has been about visibility -- a role they have adopted with personal gusto.

South Korea's first openly gay legislator, Cha Hae-young | AF`-JIJI

Their office, in an otherwise drab building in Seoul's Mapo district, is adorned with rainbow garlands and complete with a large Pride flag.

"The other council members were a bit surprised at first," Cha said.

"They are used to it now -- and to me."

Still, the burden of being the only out politician sometimes weighs on the 37-year-old former radio producer.

"For me, being gay is something to be proud of. But it also makes you vulnerable (as a politician)," said Cha, who has pushed for anti-discrimination and marriage equality legislation to be enacted.

- Pride backlash -

Seoul's queer festival will celebrate its 25th anniversary on Saturday.

But for the second year in a row, its organisers were denied permission to hold events at four locations in the capital -- including the central plaza for the main event.

City authorities have blamed scheduling clashes, and said the event could "provoke social conflicts".

But the festival's organisers have said this is not good enough.

"Equality means to have an event for sexual minorities in a public space -- to block it is inequality," said Yang Sun-woo, chair of the Seoul Queer Culture Festival.

"I would like to ask Seoul Mayor Oh Se-hoon if this is the 'global and leading city' he claims Seoul is," Yang added.

The city's conservative mayor Oh said last year he "personally can't agree with homosexuality" -- a stance that appears to clash with the Seoul's frequently stated goal of becoming an "open and inclusive city of mutual prosperity".

Clashes with police broke out at Pride event in the southern city of Daegu last June, after the city's mayor Hong Joon-pyo attempted to block the celebrations.

- Diversity calling -

But South Korea is facing a new reality: with one of the world's lowest birth rates, the ethnically homogenous society needs to welcome more immigrants -- and with them diversity.

Before that, "we need to show the people that we (LGBTQ people) exist," so they can see the diversity that exists in South Korean society already, Cha said.

Despite being South Korea's only openly LGBTQ elected official, Cha said they have found politics welcoming and productive.

A framed poster on their desk reads: "We welcome all races, all religions, all countries of origin, all sexual orientations, all genders. We stand with you, you are safe here".

Cha said they were hoping to make their party -- which holds a majority in parliament but does not control the presidency -- more open to all.

"As the majority party we need to move to an inclusive society, not an exclusionary one," said Cha, adding this will be the focus of their remaining two years in office.

"But a re-election is important because two years isn't enough time" to get all this done, they added.

hs/ceb/dhw/mtp

Tens of thousands of South Koreans celebrate Pride despite backlash

AFP
Sat, 1 June 2024 

Seoul's Pride Parade, one of the largest in Asia, is expected to draw 150,000 this year (ANTHONY WALLACE)


Tens of thousands of LGBTQ South Koreans and their supporters gathered in central Seoul for annual Pride celebrations Saturday, despite the event's traditional venue being banned by authorities for the second consecutive year.

Same-sex marriage remains unrecognised in Asia's fourth largest economy, and activists have long emphasised the need for legislation outlawing discrimination on the basis of sexual orientation.

This year's Pride Parade, marking its 25th anniversary and one of the largest in Asia, was denied permission to gather at the Seoul Plaza in front of City Hall, where the main festivities have traditionally been held.

Seoul's conservative mayor Oh Se-hoon has said he "personally can't agree with homosexuality", but municipal authorities blamed a scheduling conflict and said the venue had already been reserved for an outdoor event themed around books.

It instead took place in the streets in central Seoul, with companies and organisations including the US embassy, IKEA, and Amnesty International participating to show support.

Areas surrounding Seoul's major thoroughfares Namdaemun-ro and Ujeongguk-ro were packed with excited participants wearing rainbow-themed costumes and make-up, some blowing bubbles and many waving orange balloons -- the theme colour for this year's edition.

"The colour range symbolises an intermediary quality between red and yellow. It doesn't belong anywhere but exists independently, ... akin to our queer way of being," organisers said in a statement.

According to the Pride organisers, three other venues managed by the Seoul city government, including the Seoul Museum of History, were also prohibited from being used for side events due to "causing social conflict".

The authorities' decision was "nonsensical", but it does not diminish the pride that LGBTQ individuals feel for the annual event, participant Na Joo-youn told AFP."

"I'm openly queer, which means I often have to fight for what I believe, which sometimes makes it hard to live as myself," Na, 26, said.

"Today, I get to enjoy being myself. Those who oppose the Pride Parade have been around for a long time, but whatever they do or say, they cannot erase our existence."

LGBTQ festivals have often been targeted by evangelical Christian groups, who have thrown water bottles and verbally abused Pride marchers and tried to block their route by lying down in the street in the past.

Just a few hundred metres away from the main streets where the festival was held, Christian protesters denounced LGBTQ rights, holding signs that read "No!! Same-sex Marriage" and "The country built with blood and sweat is collapsing due to homosexuality."

"We're opposing homosexuality because we want these who think they are 'homosexuals' to be truly happy by accepting God's ways, which only permit the union of a man and a woman," Jang Mi-young, a 65-year-old Christian protester, told AFP.

- Rights 'regressing' -

Nearly a quarter of South Korea's 52 million population is Christian and churches remain a significant political arena, particularly for legislators.

In addition to the festival still facing difficulties in securing venues, attempts to pass laws banning discrimination on the basis of sexuality have languished since around 2007, with lawmakers coming under pressure from conservative and religious organisations.

"It would not be an exaggeration to say that the human rights of sexual minorities in South Korean society are regressing, (rather than meeting) the global standards," Hyeonju, one of the festival's organisers, said.

This year's festival included a group of South Korean queers protesting against Israel's offensive in Gaza.

Waving the Palestinian flag and banners that read "From the river to the sea, Palestine will be free," they accused Israel of "pink-washing", or boasting of its acceptance of the LGBTQ community to cover up rights abuses against Palestinians.

"As the saying 'LGBTQ is everywhere' is not just a rhetorical statement but contains literal truth, many sexual minorities are living, getting hurt, and dying in Palestine, where a genocide is being committed," they said in a statement.

"Queers living in South Korea deeply wish for the survival and liberation of Palestinian queers."



After a quarter century, Thailand's LGBTQ Pride Parade is seen as a popular and political success

JINTAMAS SAKSORNCHAI
Fri, 31 May 2024 






Thailand Pride Parade
A drag queen applies makeup on her face before a news conference on the Bangkok Pride in Bangkok, Thailand, Thursday, May 9, 2024. Thailand is kicking off its celebration for the LGBTQ+ community's Pride Month with a parade on Saturday, as the country is on the course to become the first nation in Southeast Asia to legalize marriage equality. 

(AP Photo/Sakchai Lalit)

BANGKOK (AP) — Thailand is kicking off its celebration of the LGBTQ+ community’s Pride Month with a parade Saturday, as the country is on course to become the first nation in Southeast Asia to legalize marriage equality.

The annual Bangkok Pride Parade is expected to pack the streets in one of the Thai capital’s busiest commercial districts. Pride Month celebrations have been endorsed by politicians, government agencies and some of the country’s biggest business conglomerates, which have become official partners or sponsors for the celebration.

Ann “Waaddao” Chumaporn, who has been organizing Bangkok Pride since 2022, said in a recent interview with The Associated Press that she hopes the parade can be “a platform that allows everyone to call out for what they want and express who they really are.”

Waaddao thinks Thai society has shifted a lot from a decade ago, and the issue has now become a fashionable social and business trend.

Thanks in part to her work, a marriage equality bill granting full legal, financial and medical rights for marriage partners of any gender could become reality sometime this year.

But the public celebration of gender diversity was not always so popular in Thailand despite its long-standing reputation as an LGBTQ+ friendly country.

The first big celebration for the community in Thailand was held on Halloween weekend in 1999 and called the “Bangkok Gay Festival.” It was organized by Pakorn Pimton, who said that after seeing Pride parades on his overseas travels, he wanted Thailand to have one, too.

It was hard organizing such an event back then, when Thai society was much less open, he said.

“Everyone told me, even my boyfriend, that it would be impossible,” he said in an interview with AP.

Organizing such an event in a public space requires permission from authorities, and it didn’t go that smoothly for Pakorn, yet he eventually pulled it off.

Pakorn said some police officers treated him well, but there were others who gave him dirty looks, or were dismissive. He recalled hearing one officer say, “Why do you even need to do this? These katoey ...”

“Katoey,” whose rough equivalent in English would be “ladyboy,” has generally been used as a slur against transgender women or gay men with feminine appearances, although the word now has been claimed by the community.

After getting the permit, Pakorn, who then was actively working in show business, said he tried contacting television stations for advertising and finding sponsors for his project, but they all rejected him.

“There were no mobile phones, no Facebook, no nothing. There were only posters that I had to put up at gay bars,” he said.

Because of that, Pakorn said, he was bewildered to see thousands of people, not only Thais but many foreigners, take to downtown Bangkok's streets for that first celebration in colorful and racy costumes, carrying balloons and dancing on fancy floats.

The event got attention from both domestic and international media as both Thailand’s first gay parade and one of the first in Asia. It was described as energetic and chaotic, not least because the police did not completely close it off from traffic, resulting in marchers, dancers and floats weaving their way through moving buses, cars and motorbikes.

Pakorn organized it for several more years but eventually stopped.

Only recently did the political significance behind the term “Pride” gain much importance in the event, said Vitaya Saeng-Aroon, director of an advocacy group Diversity In Thailand.

Previously, there were not a lot of organized LGBTQ+ communities who joined in, “so there were no messages in the parade. It became like a party just for fun," he said.

Now the parade carries a more political tone because the observance has been organized by people like Waaddao who have long worked to raise awareness on gender equality and diversity.

For her part, Waaddao said she became inspired to organize the parade after taking part in the youth-led pro-democracy protests that sprang up across the country in 2020. She said she had previously been carrying out her advocacy work mostly in conference rooms, but those protests convinced her that street action can also advance a political agenda.

Although the pro-democracy movement lost steam due to the coronavirus pandemic and repression, Waaddao decided to continue the struggle for equal marriage and gender equality, ushering in a new era for Pride activities in 2022.

That was the year that several draft bills for marriage equality or civil partnership were introduced in Parliament. Although none managed to pass during the government then in power, a marriage equality bill sponsored by the current administration is expected to get through second and third readings by the Senate later this month, its last legislative hurdle before getting royal endorsement and becoming law.

COLD WAR 2.0

ANALYSIS: The Russian Art of Mudslinging and Conspiracy-mongering

Whenever a world leader dies, either by sinister or natural causes, you can be sure Moscow will warp the narrative to sow, if not panic, then at least cynicism and doubt.

By Ivana Stradner

By Jason Jay Smart

June 1, 2024

Photo:unsplash

For decades the Kremlin has maintained its position as one of the world’s most prolific generators of conspiracy theories regarding the deaths of foreign leaders: from blaming JFK’s assassination on the CIA (rather than the inconvenient one-time Soviet resident Lee Harvey Oswald) to even recent leaders’ demises. Russia is keen to foster doubts, inducing larger disbeliefs about all “official” explanations for how world-altering events transpire.

The Kremlin is a firm believer that the West – confused, disunited, and overwhelmed with conflicting reports – is an adversary that will find it more difficult to challenge Russia’s doublespeak and lies.

When a Slovakian gunman, enraged by domestic political policies, recently sought to murder Slovakian PM Roberto Fico, Russia Today’s editor-in-chief Margarita Simonyan “explained” that, like other historical assassinations, it was a professionally orchestrated operation. This line of reasoning paired well with what Russian journalists, such as Yegor Kholmogorov and Armen Gasparyan, were also arguing: The conniving West used its top-secret agents to “liquidate” Fico.


Russian foreign intelligence chief Sergey Naryshkin is doing his part to stoke doubts and discord about the attempted hit, arguing that it was the befallen Prime Minister’s advocacy of the Slovakian “country and people’s” “national interests” that motivated the attacker. He further cautioned that other pro-Russian-oriented leaders, particularly Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orbán and Serbian President Aleksandar Vučić, were also targets of the “global, totalitarian liberal elite.”  



OTHER TOPICS OF INTEREST
Poland Arrests 3 on Suspicion of Russia-Inspired Arson Attacks
In recent months Poland, a staunch Ukraine supporter, has seen several sabotage plots on its territory that it has blamed on neighbouring Russia.


Russia’s weaponization of conspiracy theories demonstrates their intended purpose: to pollute the information space…

Sergei Markov, a pro-Kremlin television commentator and professor, endorsed the “conspiration of global elites.” State Duma member Amir Khamitov further echoed that it was the stricken leader’s “bold and decisive statements” that had put him in harm’s way, while another State Duma member, Konstantin Zatulin, reminded all who would listen that the official narrative of the events was false.

Russia’s weaponization of conspiracy theories demonstrates their intended purpose: to pollute the information space, convince people that there is “always another side of the story,” and that the West is not “the good guy” people think it is. 

Slovakia provided an exciting moment for Moscow’s shills to flex their professional skills, but the helicopter crash that killed Iranian President Ebrahim Raisi sent Moscow into overdrive. Some, such as Russian military blogger Kotenok Yuri, speculated that the West had clandestinely had a hand in the crash. 

Markov reprised his role from the Fico incident, saying that the “powerful globalists” had been seeking to eliminate their rival. He added that the US intelligence services were the orchestrators in killing another foreign leader and are now likely planning to strike and kill Orbán in the immediate future. 

Seeking to heat global tensions by introducing more baseless fearmongering, Leonid Slutsky, a chairman of the Kremlin-rubber-stamping-right-wing Liberal Democratic Party of Russia, concocted a theory, tying the Iranian’s demise to an attack on the Saudi Crown Prince

Russia has decades of experience in playing the role of agent provocateur, spurring radical ideas and rogue actions to damage Western leaders.

Moscow’s mouthpieces’ “talking points” can be thought of as general guidelines: Do and say what is needed to create pandemonium so that citizens of “enemy countries” become confused and open to believing the multitude of false narratives emanating from Moscow, and less prone to believing “the official narrative” of Western governments.

With election interference or attempts to provoke divisions in European or American society, it is less about what people believe and more about how people perceive reality that strikes the Kremlin’s fancy.

Russia has decades of experience in playing the role of agent provocateur, spurring radical ideas and rogue actions to damage Western leaders both nationally and internationally. The good news is that we know how they play their part – now we must take action to prevent them from taking their circus of fears and disinformation on another world tour.

Ivana Stradner
Dr. Ivana Stradner serves as a research fellow with the Barish Center for Media Integrity at the Foundation for Defense of Democracies. Her research focuses on Russia’s security strategies and military doctrines to understand how Russia uses information operations for strategic communication.

Jason Jay Smart
Jason Jay Smart, Ph.D., is a political adviser who has lived and worked in Ukraine, Moldova, Kyrgyzstan, Kazakhstan, Russia, and Latin America. Due to his work with the democratic opposition to Pres. Vladimir Putin, Smart was persona non grata, for life, by Russia in 2010. His websites can be found at www.JasonJaySmart.com / www.AmericanPoliticalServices.com / fb.com/jasonjaysmart / Twitter: @OfficeJJSmart

S’pore passengers unhappy over high Batam ferry prices as Indonesia probes possible price-fixing 

COMMONPLACE CRIMINAL CAPITALI$M

Before the pandemic, ferry services between Batam and Singapore served 3.9 million passengers annually, including 1.9 million foreign tourists.

 ST PHOTO: MADELEINE WONG

Arlina Arshad, Gracia Yap and Madeleine Wong
UPDATED
JUN 01, 2024

JAKARTA/SINGAPORE – Singaporean manager Zheng Huang was shocked to find his round-trip ferry ticket to Indonesia’s Batam island had soared to more than $70 over the past two years.

The 53-year-old, who used to visit the holiday spot every weekend for dining and shopping, now limits his trips to once or twice a month.

“That’s the only way out now... Since you’re there, you better make the most of your time,” he told The Straits Times. His friends shared his frustration, but he lamented, “It’s not within our control... we are held hostage.”


Like Mr Zheng, other Singaporeans making the hour-long journey have been left baffled by the steep hikes, uniformly imposed by multiple operators, after Batam, part of Riau Islands province, reopened to international travellers in January 2022 as the Covid-19 pandemic waned.

Now, the mystery may be a step closer to being solved after Indonesia’s independent business watchdog disclosed it has launched a probe into potential collusion and price-fixing among ferry operators on the route.

The probe began in 2022 following complaints from passengers, and local media reported about the investigation on May 29.

On May 29, Indonesia’s Business Competition Supervisory Commission revealed that operators charged 800,000 rupiah to 900,000 rupiah (S$67 to S$74) for a return ticket from January to June 2022, more than twice the usual price of 270,000 rupiah to 450,000 rupiah.

A Straits Times check on the websites of ferry operators found that round-trip tickets from Singapore’s HarbourFront Centre to Indonesia’s Batam Centre International Ferry Terminal cost $34 to $60 in 2021, and $56 to $76 in 2024.

Mr Ridho Pamungkas, the commission’s chief for northern Sumatra region, told The Straits Times that four operators are under investigation for alleged cartel practices, with their Singapore-based parent company yet to be summoned.

“The prices now are unreasonably high. It appears the businesses have agreed to fix prices at similar high values, so there’s no competition between them,” he said.

Mr Ridho noted that ferry ticket prices between Batam and Johor Baru are lower despite the longer two-hour journey. So, the Batam-Singapore fare is “an unhealthy sign”.

The commission has faced “many obstacles” during their investigation over the past two years, such as obtaining information about the operators’ expenses, he said.

“The ferry operators’ management was uncooperative in providing data, making it difficult to gather evidence,” he said, adding that the parent company being based in Singapore – and thus outside Indonesia’s legal purview – only complicated matters.

The commission’s head office in Jakarta held a focus group meeting with the Transportation Ministry, the Batam Development Authority (BP Batam), and the Riau Islands provincial administration on May 28 to discuss the high fares and possible collusion.

A follow-up meeting will be held in Batam on June 11, this time with the ferry operators in attendance. “We are committed to resolving this problem,” Mr Ridho said.

MORE ON THIS TOPIC

Tanah Merah Ferry Terminal’s $20m revamp to include new automated check-in kiosks, immigration lanes

Demand for ferries between S'pore and Malaysia, Indonesia increases

According to Mr Ridho, around 200,000 travellers of various nationalities travel from Singapore to Batam each month.

BP Batam’s port management director Dendi Gustinandar told The Straits Times that ferry ticket prices to non-domestic destinations had indeed increased post-pandemic.

Before the pandemic, ferry services between Batam and Singapore served 3.9 million passengers annually, including 1.9 million foreign tourists. Since then, ticket sales have recovered 60 per cent to what they had been before the pandemic.

Mr Dendi said operators have attributed the price hike to rising fuel costs and lower passenger numbers.

Ferry employees at Batam terminals declined to comment on the ticket prices, directing The Straits Times to “ask the boss”. E-mails to ferry operators went unanswered.

Meanwhile, Singaporean travellers say higher ferry prices will harm Batam’s tourism sector and deter people seeking affordable weekend getaways. Some plan to cut down their trips.

Mr Benson Toh, 47, a public service manager, said: “I find this ferry ride expensive because Batam is so near. If the price keeps increasing, I won’t go there so frequently.”

Housewife Nur Fazirah, 25, said: “It’s overpriced… Last time it was easy for us to travel to Batam, but now the price is not worth it.”

Singaporeans say they could understand why ferry operators were only trying to make up for their losses during the pandemic, but that did not justify the current prices.

Manager Norazani Shaiddin, 63, who visits her family in Batam every Friday, said: “For the price of $70 and additional $40 for VIP services, it’s very expensive… one can fly to Phuket.”

Ms Farlyane Johari, a 35-year-old special education teacher, said the price increase was too drastic, especially since there was no improvement in the quality of vessels or reduction in trip times, adding: “It’s a lot to just go to Batam for one hour, then come back.”

Special education teacher Farlyane Johari (right) and companion Gary Goh travel to Batam once a year. ST PHOTO: MADELEINE WONG

But many others said they will continue to visit the island.

Mr Rick Heng, 51, a security supervisor, considers it a “give and take” situation given the global rise in prices of goods and services.

Another traveller, 45-year-old finance controller Vincent Lin, said: “I will continue to travel to Batam by ferry even with the price increase as things in Batam are cheap, so it is still worth it.”Additional reporting by Ang Qing

ISRAEL

'THEY WANT TO TURN IT INTO A THOUGHT POLICE'

Report: Shin Bet chief refused ministers’ demand to act against protesters

Security agency will not ‘become a secret police,’ Ronen Bar said to have told ministers Levin, Ben Gvir, who accused him and other officials of ‘selective enforcement’

By TOI STAFF

Today

Times of Israel

File - Ronen Bar, head of the Shin Bet security agency, attends a Holocaust Remembrance Day ceremony at the Yad Vashem memorial in Jerusalem, May 5, 2024. (Chain Goldberg/Flash90)


National Security Minister Itamar Ben-Gvir and Justice Minister Yariv Levin have reportedly demanded that the Shin Bet use its tools against activists in anti-government protests and were refused by the security agency’s chief Ronen Bar, who said it would “not become a secret police.”

According to a report published by the Haaretz newspaper on Thursday, Bar made the comment at a recent meeting that was also attended by Attorney General Gali Baharav-Miara, State Prosecutor Amit Aisman, and Police Commissioner Kobi Shabtai. Bar reportedly responded to the ministers’ demand by saying it was the police’s job to maintain public order.

Throughout the meeting, Haaretz said, the ministers berated the law enforcement officials for “selective enforcement” in favor of Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s detractors.

Demonstrations against Netanyahu have roiled Israel since 2020, when protesters began demanding he resign over corruption allegations. The protests intensified in 2023 after Netanyahu’s current government presented its plan to overhaul the judiciary.

The protests were somewhat muted after the Gaza war began on October 7, when thousands of Hamas-led terrorists stormed southern Israel to kill nearly 1,200 people and take 252 hostages. In recent months, however, anti-government protests have resumed — often in conjunction with protests in favor of a truce-hostage deal — calling for new elections due to the government’s failure to forestall the shock assault.

An official who was present at the meeting was quoted as saying, “In internal meetings, they express an expectation that the Shin Bet use its tools against parts of the protest [movement]… They want to turn it into a thought police.”

Illustrative: Anti-government protesters march from Begin Street towards Democracy Square in Tel Aviv, May 25, 2024. (Eitan Slonim/Pro-Democracy Movement)

The article also quoted a senior official as saying that Bar has been strongly advised, by his predecessors among others, not to resign from his post over the failings of October 7 until after the prime minister has left his role, “for fear that Netanyahu will appoint a collaborator instead.”

Referencing months of tensions between Ben Gvir and the heads of the police and prison service, the senior official was quoted by Haaretz as saying, “The horror going on in the police and the prison service could happen there, too.”
ADVERTISEMENT

Ben Gvir announced on Tuesday that he would pursue Shabtai’s ouster in the government this week, after Baharav-Miara declared unlawful a dismissal hearing to which the minister had summoned the police commissioner.

File – National Security Minister Itamar Ben Gvir (right) and Police Chief Kobi Shabtai at the funeral of Border Police officer Sgt. Shay Germay at Karmiel military cemetery on January 7, 2024. (David Cohen/Flash90)

Hebrew media has reported that Ben Gvir is unhappy with the police chief’s decision to guard Gaza-bound trucks of humanitarian aid, which Jewish extremists have violently attacked. Ben Gvir summoned Shabtai for dismissal after police officers violently dispersed a crowd of ultra-Orthodox Jews who had illegally gathered in Meron to light a traditional bonfire on the holiday of Lag Ba’Omer on Sunday.

Haaretz reported earlier this week that police were hesitant to launch an investigation, ordered by Baharav-Miara, into allegations that Ben Gvir’s staff had illegally arranged for the extremist minister’s supporters to receive diplomatic passports and firearms. The newspaper quoted senior figures in the police as saying the hesitancy stemmed from fears the investigation would lead to the minister himself.

Tight race as Iceland elects new president


AFP
June 1, 2024

Jakobsdottir served as the head of a left-right government from 2017 until April when she stepped down to run for president - Copyright AFP Halldor KOLBEINS

Iceland goes to the polls Saturday in a presidential election that looks set to be a close race between three women, including former prime minister Katrin Jakobsdottir.

Iceland’s president holds a largely ceremonial position in the parliamentary republic, acting as a guarantor of the constitution and national unity.

He or she does however have the power to veto legislation or submit it to a referendum.

The hugely popular Gudni Johannesson, who has held the job since 2016 and was re-elected in 2020 with a whopping 92 percent of the vote, announced earlier this year that he would not seek re-election.

No one central issue has dominated the election campaign, where candidates traditionally run as independents without party affiliations.

In addition to the former prime minister, the main candidates in the field of 13 include a political science professor, a comedian, a businesswoman and an Arctic and energy scholar.

In the country of 380,000 people, any citizen gathering 1,500 signatures can run for office.

Jakobsdottir, who served as the head of a left-right coalition government from 2017 until April when she stepped down to run for president, has had to fend off criticism that she is too political for the job.

“I actually think that knowing the political environment doesn’t make you less qualified to handle the job of president,” the 48-year-old said Thursday during a televised debate, when asked if her political career would be a hindrance for her as president.

“On the contrary… I believe that I can rise above all party politics,” she said.

The televised debate saw the candidates trade barbs on topics ranging from the country’s NATO membership, weapons for Ukraine, the possible sale of Iceland’s national power company and the use of presidential veto powers.

– Women in the lead –


Jakobsdottir and two other women — Halla Tomasdottir and Halla Hrund Logadottir — have been leading in opinion polls.

Tomasdottir is a 55-year-old businesswoman who came second in the 2016 presidential election, while Logadottir is a 43-year-old environmental, Arctic and energy expert and currently adjunct professor at Harvard University,

A poll published in daily Morgunbladid on Friday put Jakobsdottir in the lead with 26 percent, trailed closely by Tomasdottir with 24 percent and Logadottir with 19 percent.

Jakobsdottir, party leader for the Left Green Movement from 2013 until her presidential bid, has been hailed for her handling of the resurgence in volcanic eruptions on the Reykjanes peninsula since December.

The five eruptions, including one on Wednesday, have sparked a series of evacuations as well as the state’s acquisition of homes from residents evacuated from the threatened fishing town of Grindavik.

But political observers noted that Jakobsdottir’s background as prime minister could work against her, and said the race remained wide open.

A woman president would not be a first in Iceland.

In 1980, Vigdis Finnbogadottir became the world’s first woman democratically elected as head of state.

The election results are expected early Sunday.

European Parliament election is next month.
What’s at stake?

June 01, 2024 
By Associated Press

European flags fly outside the European Parliament on Feb. 7, 2024, in Strasbourg, eastern France.

BRUSSELS —

Around 400 million European Union citizens go to the polls next month to elect members of the European Parliament, or MEPs, in one of the biggest global democratic events.

Far-right parties are seeking to gain more power amid a rise in the cost of living and farmers' discontent, while the wars in Gaza and Ukraine are on the minds of voters.

One of the biggest questions is whether European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen will remain in charge as the most visible face of the EU.

Here is a look at the upcoming election and the biggest issues at stake:

When is the vote?

EU elections are held every five years across the 27-member bloc. This year marks the 10th parliamentary election since the first polls in 1979, and the first after Brexit.

The vote takes place from June 6-9. First results can only be revealed on the evening of June 9, once polling stations have closed in all member states.

How does voting work?

The elections start on a Thursday in the Netherlands and finish on a Sunday, when most countries hold their election. The voting is done by direct universal suffrage in a single ballot.

The number of members elected in each country depends on the size of the population. It ranges from six for Malta, Luxembourg and Cyprus to 96 for Germany. In 2019, Europeans elected 751 lawmakers. Following the United Kingdom's departure from the EU in 2020, the number of MEPs fell to 705. Some of the 73 seats previously held by British MEPs had been redistributed to other member states.

After the election, the European Parliament will have 15 additional members, bringing the total to 720. Twelve countries will get extra MEPs.

Elections are contested by national political parties, but once they are elected, most of the lawmakers then join transnational political groups.

Who is voting?

People under 18 are allowed to vote in some countries. In Belgium, a law adopted in 2022 lowered the minimum voting age to 16. Germany, Malta and Austria are also permitting 16-year-olds to vote. In Greece, the youngest voting age is 17. In all other member states, it's 18.

A minimum age is also required to stand for election — from 18 in most countries to 25 in Italy and Greece.

What about turnout?

European Union elections usually don't bring a huge turnout, but there was a clear upturn in public interest in the 2019 election. At 50.7%, the turnout was eight points higher than in 2014 after steadily falling since 1979, when it reached 62%.

In April, the latest edition of the European Parliament's Eurobarometer highlighted a surge of interest in the upcoming election. Around 71% of Europeans said they are likely to cast a ballot.

What are the main issues?

Russia's full-scale invasion of Ukraine is at the forefront of citizens' minds, with defense and security seen as key campaign issues. At national level, the EU's defense and security was mentioned first in nine countries.

The economy, jobs, poverty and social exclusion, public health, climate change and the future of Europe are also featuring prominently as issues.

What do EU lawmakers do?

The European Parliament is the only EU institution to be elected by European citizens. It's a real counterpower to the powerful EU's executive arm, the European Commission.

The parliament doesn't have the initiative of proposing legislation. But its powers are getting bigger. It is now competent on a wide range of topics, voting on laws relating to climate, banking rules, agriculture, fisheries, security or justice. The legislature also votes on the EU budget, which is crucial to the implementation of European policies, including, for instance, the aid delivered to Ukraine.

Lawmakers are also a key element of the check and balances system since they need to approve the nomination of all EU commissioners, who are the equivalent of ministers. And it can also force the whole commission to resign with a vote by a two-third majority.

What's the current makeup of the parliament?

With 176 seats out of 705 as of the end of the last plenary session in April, the center-right European People's Party is the largest political group in the European Parliament.

Von der Leyen belongs to the EPP and hopes to remain at the helm of the EU's executive arm after the election.

The second-largest group is the S&D, the political group of the center-left Party of European Socialists, which currently holds 139 seats. The liberal and pro-European Renew group holds 102 seats ahead of an alliance made up of green and regionalist political parties that holds 72 seats.

Far right looks to make gains

Two groups with far-right parties, the European Conservatives and Reformists (ECR) and Identity and Democracy (ID), could be headed to becoming the third- and fourth-largest political groups at the European Parliament. The two groups have many divergences and it's unclear to what extent they could team up and affect the EU's agenda, especially the EU's efforts to support Ukraine against Russia in the war.

The EPP and S&D are expected to remain stable. Liberals and greens could both take a hit after they made big gains at the previous election.

What happens after the election?

Once the weight of each political force is determined, MEPs will elect their president at the first plenary session, from July 16-19. Then, most likely in September after weeks of negotiations, they will nominate the president of the European Commission, following a proposal made by the member states.

In 2019, von der Leyen won a narrow majority (383 votes in favor, 327 against, 22 abstentions) to become the first woman to head the institution. Parliamentarians will also hear from the European commissioners before approving them in a single vote.

Von der Leyen has good chances to be appointed for another team, but she needs to secure the support of enough leaders. She has also antagonized many lawmakers by suggesting she could work with the hard right depending on the outcome of the elections.