Sunday, June 16, 2024

 

Red Lobster Canada to ask court to recognize stalking horse bid, OK sales process

Red Lobster

Red Lobster Canada will ask an Ontario court next week to recognize a stalking horse bid from its lenders and approve a sales process for its assets.

Court filings made on behalf of the beleaguered seafood chain’s Canadian operations earlier this week say the matter will be heard by the Superior Court of Justice on June 18, as long as a U.S. court approves the sales process before then.

The filings made on June 11 say the steps are meant to "preserve" Red Lobster’s business in Canada and the employment of the company's 2,000 workers stationed at 27 restaurants across the country.

A stalking horse bid is an offer to buy a bankrupt firm or its assets that is arranged ahead of an auction and typically sets a floor price for the assets. The documents say the bid will give lenders a chance to sell the company’s assets in a way that maximizes their value and helps them avoid the risk of them being sold for an unreasonably low price.

The sale procedures, which could include an auction, "are designed to encourage all prospective bidders to put forward their highest and best bid, bring finality to the debtors’ sale process, and create a path toward approval of a sale order," court records say.

They add the bid will be “market-tested” to ensure the company nabs the highest or otherwise best offer, or combination of offers, for the Red Lobster business as a whole or its assets. 

Linc Rogers, a lawyer representing Red Lobster Canada, declined to comment further on the matter. Red Lobster Canada did not immediately respond to a request for comment.

The filings made in Canada come after Florida-based Red Lobster Management LLC shuttered dozens of locations in the U.S. recently and filed for Chapter 11 bankruptcy protection, which a Canadian court agreed to recognize last month.

Jonathan Tibus, chief executive of Red Lobster Management, said in an affidavit that since an Ontario court recognized the U.S. proceedings, "Canadian restaurants have continued to operate in the ordinary course."

The chain, which was founded in the U.S. in 1968 and counts 550 restaurants in its home country, expanded to Canada in 1983, but only has a presence in four provinces — Ontario, Manitoba, Saskatchewan and Alberta.

Stuart Brotman, a lawyer representing information officer FTI Consulting, previously told an Ontario court that Red Lobster Canada "has been and is expected to continue to be cash flow positive."

Tibus, however, has noted that the entire company is facing challenges, including "disruptions to its supply chain, hyperinflation affecting food, labour and delivery costs, substantial increases in the cost of capital and real property leases, and shifts in casual dining trends both during and after the COVID-19 pandemic."

Since the health crisis, filings show Red Lobster's annual customer count has only "marginally improved" and is down 30 per cent from 2019.

The company heavily promoted its “Ultimate Endless Shrimp” deals to combat the headwinds it was facing, but Tibus said in court records that they amounted to a "significant cash drain" that cost Red Lobster US$11 million.

Since June 2023, he's been working to reduce spending, "simplify" the menu and "implement a sensible promotional calendar with fewer limited-time offers."

The company announced a Crabfest promotion on Thursday, using Flavor Flav to boost the slate of deals.

When the company announced its Chapter 11 proceedings, the member of U.S. rap group Public Enemy, posted on X, formerly known as Twitter, that he wanted to use his platform to "help save one of America’s greatest dining dynasties."

This report by The Canadian Press was first published June 14, 2024.


Red Lobster looks to new Wall Street saviour after prior woes

Barbs immediately began to fly after Red Lobster filed for bankruptcy last month.

Its new chief executive blamed the owners. The owners blamed prior owners. Covid-19, corporate greed and a now-infamous US$20, all-you-can-eat shrimp deal all took their hits.

Onlookers also pointed to changing tastes — perhaps American diners simply no longer want to eat Walt’s Favorite Shrimp in a wood-paneled restaurant their grandparents may have frequented.

The real story is a combination of factors that slowly drove an iconic American chain into financial despair over more than a decade. Finally unable to pay rent, offer unlimited shrimp or hold onto a zeitgeist around the brand after it appeared in Beyoncé lyrics, Red Lobster had to legally call it quits.

Now, the company faces choices that aren’t easy and may not turn its fortunes around. Its most likely saviour is Fortress Investment Group, a Wall Street firm that manages $48 billion and scouts opportunities in distressed companies.

Fortress already holds a large portion of Red Lobster’s debt and is so far the only entity to express serious interest in escorting it out of bankruptcy, people involved with the process told Bloomberg News.

As Fortress examines Red Lobster’s prospects, it is drilling down on how each restaurant performs and why, some of the people said. The firm is trying to identify the regions and demographics that would best support a comeback.

Above all, Fortress wants to cut Red Lobster loose from burdensome lease agreements that have dragged down the company’s results, said the people, who were granted anonymity to discuss non-public information.

Representatives for Red Lobster and Fortress declined to comment for this story.

A bankruptcy court hearing on Friday will help determine the fate of America’s largest seafood chain.

“They can slowly rebuild — if they can get enough money in and recruit a decent CEO,” said John A. Gordon, who advises restaurants on strategy as principal of Pacific Management Consulting Group.

Embedded Image

The outcome matters because Red Lobster reflects not just what is happening with an individual company in distress, but how the U.S. economy is changing as prices for consumers and businesses soar. Its typical patrons have become more selective about where and how often they dine out, while the cost of goods and labour have squeezed margins across the restaurant industry.

First location

Restaurant entrepreneur Bill Darden opened the first Red Lobster in 1968 in Lakeland, Florida. His idea was simple: fresh seafood that could feed a family of four for $20.

General Mills Inc. acquired the company two years later and embarked on a huge expansion across the U.S. It introduced seafood to land-locked patrons who usually ate it far less than their coastal peers.

By 1995, Red Lobster had over 700 locations. That year, General Mills spun off its restaurant businesses into a standalone, publicly traded company called Darden Restaurants Inc.

Red Lobster had already become the first chain to reach national scale and helped reshape cultural trends around dining out — giving it a special place in the hearts of generations of Americans. But that sentimental aura was not enough to save it from financial difficulties.

Red Lobster’s sales slumped in the early 2000s. It installed wood-fired grills to upscale the menus, closed some restaurants and redesigned others — more Bar Harbor, less Bahamas, as one former executive put it.

But Darden’s casual-dining chains cannibalized one another’s revenue, and activist investors agitated for change. The company identified Red Lobster as an underperformer and sold the business to private equity firm Golden Gate Capital for $2.1 billion in 2014.

In concert with that sale, Darden made a move that has become familiar among distressed companies with real estate: sell the buildings for quick cash, lease back the locations, exit the investment for a profit. In this sale-leaseback playbook, most of the cash generated often goes to investors, leaving companies struggling with the same business problems, along with new, fixed real estate costs that afford little room for errors or unforeseen challenges.

“Since real estate is usually the primary hard asset in this business, companies have to use it if they want to raise capital,” said Jay Weinberger, a managing director in investment bank Houlihan Lokey Inc.’s restructuring group.

Thai Union missteps

In 2016, Thai Union Group Pcl, an Asian seafood producer that was already a major supplier of Red Lobster’s ingredients, paid Golden Gate $575 million for a 25 per cent stake and the right to later obtain another 24 per cent of the equity at no additional cost.

Founded in 1977 as a processor of canned tuna, Thai Union had grown into the world’s largest seafood distributor. From its headquarters on the western fringe of Bangkok, the company already owned seafood brands including Chicken of the Sea, King Oscar and John West, generating $3.6 billion in annual revenue. Red Lobster was a way to further expand its presence in the U.S.

At the time, it seemed like an attractive investment. Red Lobster was about two years into a turnaround: sales were up, a loyalty program was taking off and Beyoncé had just released a song with risqué lyrics about rewarding a lover with a meal there.

But in 2020, the Covid-19 pandemic caused devastating lockdowns and reduced-capacity restrictions that crippled the restaurant business.

Golden Gate had already wanted to exit its remaining investment, but that became more urgent as Red Lobster’s sales tanked and a debt maturity fast approached.

Thai Union, having a vested interest, partnered with an investment company called Seafood Alliance and members of the management team to buy the rest of Golden Gate’s stake. Under new owners, Red Lobster refinanced its debt in early 2021, just as insolvency beckoned. One former lender called it an out-of-court restructuring, meaning it resembled a formal bankruptcy. New management came in, prices went up, costs were cut, and the chain sought rent concessions.

Yet Red Lobster was still barely keeping its head above water. The ownership group put its faith behind Paul Kenny to figure out a path forward.

Kenny had run Minor Food, which operates more than 2,000 franchised restaurants — mainly cafes and fast-food venues — in Southeast Asia and elsewhere, for a long time. But he had never run a U.S.-based casual-dining business, which is far more complex.

The menus require staff with deeper skills and training, plus a broader supply chain that can be difficult to maintain. Restaurants also have an emphasis on ambiance and service that fast-food joints do not, as well as a different kind of advertising.

Appointed in 2022 as chief executive officer, Kenny decided to make Red Lobster’s $20 endless shrimp deal a permanent fixture to sustain revenue. He also dropped two of Red Lobster’s suppliers in favor of Thai Union.

Those decisions led Red Lobster’s current CEO, Jonathan Tibus, to allege that part of the chain’s perils stemmed from supply-chain decisions made in bad faith. 

In a statement, Thai Union said the accusations were meritless. “Thai Union has been a supplier to Red Lobster for more than 30 years, and we intend for that relationship to continue,” it said. The bankruptcy “will allow Red Lobster to restructure its financial obligations and realize its long-term potential in a more favorable operating environment.”

Between 2019 and the time Red Lobster filed for bankruptcy, the number of customers visiting annually had fallen by about 30 per cent, according to court papers. The chain’s combined losses for the period exceeded $300 million, according to financial and court records. Around $11 million of those came from the endless shrimp deal after it became a permanent menu item in May 2023.

Path forward

Red Lobster is now in a sale process it expects to complete by early August.

The chain has already closed about 100 of its roughly 650 restaurants and is targeting another 120 for possible closing. More pain could follow as Red Lobster negotiates rent decreases and further concessions with landlords.

“We’ve been there for your celebrations, big and small,” the company said on X after filing for bankruptcy. “Red Lobster is determined to be there for these moments for generations to come.”

Fortress is not new to managing struggling restaurants. It also owns Logan’s Roadhouse, Old Chicago and several other brands after taking over their parent company in a 2023 bankruptcy. It just got permission to be part of a lending group that acquired Alamo Drafthouse after helping it survive the pandemic. 

But not all of Fortress’s pursuits have ended well. Steak ’n Shake Inc., for example, sued the firm in 2021, accusing it of buying up the restaurant’s debt to force it into bankruptcy and take over its assets. Fortress denied wrongdoing. 

The firm is part of a lending group that holds $256 million worth of Red Lobster debt. The group agreed to provide another $100 million of debtor-in-possession funding, $40 million of which was already approved by the court.

Whoever becomes Red Lobster’s new owner will have an unenviable challenge. It is contending against not just peers like Applebee’s, which is owned by Darden, but also fast-casual chains like Chipotle Mexican Grill Inc., all of them fighting for the same dollars from affluent diners.

Red Lobster is in a particularly tough spot because of its history, including underinvestment in its restaurants, said Aaron Allen, a global restaurant consultant.

“They do these sale-leasebacks and other schemes, and they don’t have capital down the line to actually spruce the house up,” Allen said. “They just spray it with some Febreze and hope nobody notices the carpet is 20 years old.”

In the meantime, Red Lobster fans are out en force online, sharing fond memories and proclaiming their love for Cheddar Bay biscuits.

After its bankruptcy, Rapper Flavor Flav pitched his services and bought the entire menu in an effort to promote business. On Monday, Red Lobster featured him in a new advertisement.

“When the internet said Red Lobster is going away, boy, Flavor Flav said not today,” he said in a voiceover, calling it “the most bona fide comeback yet.”

 

WestJet Encore pilots ratify deal, averting strike

WestJet

WestJet Encore pilots have given the green light to a deal with their employer, averting a strike at the regional airline.

The Air Line Pilots Association says its members have ratified a five-year contract that offers higher pay, more flexible schedules and "a better work-life balance."

The union says about 79 per cent of the pilots who cast a ballot approved the collective agreement, with the vast majority of the carrier's 350-plus pilots participating in the vote.

Carin Kenny, who heads the union's WestJet Encore contingent, says the deal establishes "a level of career progression" toward flying bigger planes at the carrier's mainline operation — crucial to attracting new pilots and retaining those already on board.

The contract goes into effect immediately, with retroactive pay to Jan. 1.

The vote this week cemented a tentative agreement reached on May 30, steering clear of the turbulence wrought by 11th-hour deals of the sort reached last year between WestJet and mainline pilots as well as aviators at its now-shuttered Swoop subsidiary.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published June 14, 2024.

 

Raymond James cuts more Canadian bankers after Calgary closure

Downtown Calgary

RAYMOND JAMES FINANCIAL INC (RJF:UN)

115.67 1.56 (1.33%)
As of: 06/16/24 7:46:56 am
(delayed at least 15 minutes)
Jul '23Oct '23Jan '24Apr '248090100110120130140
Chart Type - 1year
See Full Stock Page »

Raymond James Financial Inc. cut banking jobs in Toronto, Vancouver and Montreal this week, the firm’s latest pullback after it closed its Calgary investment-banking office last year in response to a drought in energy deals, according to people familiar with the matter. 

The jobs cuts this week affected at least seven investment banking and sales and trading roles, said one of the people, asking not to be identified because the information is private. The bank shut its Calgary banking operation last August.

It’s the latest set of layoffs in Canada’s banking industry. Stifel Financial Corp. closed its Calgary office this week and cut investment bankers and analysts in Toronto. 

The investment-banking closures in the heartland of Canada’s oil and gas industry are the result of a slowdown in activity. The country’s main stock exchange has not seen a corporate initial public offering of size in more than a year, according to data compiled by Bloomberg.

Raymond James says on its website that it has 37 investment banking professionals in Canada; it has a much larger wealth management business in the country. The Florida-based firm didn’t respond to requests for comment on Thursday. 

 

Coastal GasLink completes $7.15B bond offering, largest in corporate Canadian history

Calgary-based TC Energy Corp., the company behind the Coastal GasLink pipeline, says it has completed the largest corporate bond offering in Canadian history.

The company says it has concluded a $7.15-billion refinancing of its existing construction loan that helped pay the capital costs of building the Coastal GasLink pipeline.

That $14.4-billion, 670-kilometre project was completed last fall and was one of the largest energy infrastructure projects in recent Canadian history. 

TC Energy says the refinancing was completed through a bond offering which was oversubscribed by approximately 3.6 times, a level of interest it says is "unprecedented" for the energy infrastructure industry. 

The Coastal GasLink project ran into numerous construction-related hurdles and cost overruns, and TC Energy has been under pressure from investors and credit rating agencies to reduce its level of debt in the wake of the project's completion.

But the company says restructuring construction loans with bond proceeds is a standard post-construction activity for major projects.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published June 13, 2024.


National Bank deal to acquire Canadian Western Bank may face political hurdles: analyst

National Bank of Canada’s deal to buy Canadian Western Bank (CWB) for about $5 billion in an all-stock deal is a win for the acquiring company, according to Veritas analyst Nigel D’Souza.

In an interview with BNN Bloomberg, D’Souza said the acquisition will help National expand and diversify the bank’s personal and commercial franchise across Canada.

“Canadian banking generates the highest [return on investment] typically close to 30 per cent or higher with the lowest credit losses and in a financial system that’s relatively stable,” D’Souza said.

When the offer was made, National was offering $52.24 for every CWB share, a premium of 110 per cent over where the shares were valued before the deal, but that price tag has come down a little since National’s stock price declined following the announcement.

D’Souza said he was expecting further consolidation within the Canadian banking industry, following RBC's acquisition of HSBC Canada, as regional or smaller banks are unable to overcome the structural competitive advantages of larger banks.

"Over the long term, there will be more consolidation in the space for any bank that competes with the big six banks, because you simply can’t beat them competitively.”

While the transaction is not expected to close until the end of 2025, Stephen Boland from Raymond James believes that any roadblocks to the deal will be based on regulatory and ministerial approval. In his latest analyst note, Boland said that for many years, this transaction always seemed a logical fit with each underrepresented outside their home provincial geographies.

Boland doubts the regulator would be concerned about potential competition issues as the Big 5 banks are well represented in Western Canada and in Quebec. However, he does warn that there could be institutions or politicians based in Western Canada that may not be overly positive about their ‘domestic bank’ being acquired.

"Since it’s a Quebec-based institution taking over, I can imagine that the provincial politicians are going to want some political insurance from National, that the job losses are not going to be material,” D’Souza said.



National Bank deal at 'hefty premium' to test investor patience

Jun 12, 2024

National Bank of Canada’s deal to acquire a smaller rival in western Canada makes strategic sense, analysts said, but the transaction may take years to deliver on its promised benefits for shareholders.

Shares of the Montreal-based lender fell almost 6 per cent on Wednesday after its surprise announcement that it agreed to pay $5 billion (US$3.6 billion) in stock to acquire smaller rival Canadian Western Bank. The transaction, in which National would exchange 0.45 of its shares for each share of CWB, represented a 110 per cent premium over the target’s closing price on Tuesday. 

Canadian Western shares surged 68 per cent to close at $41.89 on Wednesday, still well below the implied price of the bid. That’s partly because of the long path to regulatory approval, which isn’t expected until late next year.  

“This is a solid move for National as it has significant strategic benefits,” Jefferies Financial Group Inc. analyst John Aiken said in a report, citing increased scale and the opportunity for National to expand into western Canada. 

CWB has higher exposure to commercial lending, which will help boost National on that front, Aiken wrote. The smaller bank is also less reliant on more volatile capital markets revenue.

“There is a high degree of likelihood that the deal is completed,” Aiken said, but while he expects it will ultimately win the blessing of Canada’s Competition Bureau, the timing of that is “hard to gauge.” The deal will also need an opinion from Canada’s banking regulator, and the finance minister has the final say.  

“Despite our optimism on National Bank’s outlook from the deal, with the close 18 months out, investors will have to be patient on the expected payback,” Aiken said.

‘Vote of Confidence’

Merger approvals can be slow in Canada, as shown by the extended closings for Royal Bank of Canada’s acquisition of HSBC Holdings Plc’s assets in the country, which took well over a year from the announcement to completion. Rogers Communications Inc.’s purchase of Shaw Communications Inc. took more than two years.     

And with a federal election expected next year, the transaction has the potential to become a political issue, Stephen Boland, an analyst at Raymond James Financial Inc., said during an interview on BNN Bloomberg Television. Politicians in Alberta “are going to want some assurances from National that the job losses are not going to be too material,” he said. 

National Bank has said it will maintain Edmonton-based CWB’s headquarters in the west and add two nominees from the acquired bank to its board, once the deal is done.   

“I think it’s a vote of confidence in Western Canada,” Alberta Premier Danielle Smith said Wednesday. “That being said, I would far prefer them to be domiciled in Alberta and be paying Alberta corporate income taxes than Quebec corporate income taxes.”

Nigel D’Souza, an analyst with Veritas Investment Research, praised the deal for expanding National Bank’s reach within Canada — where large banks tend to generate better returns on equity — despite its “hefty premium.” 

“Strategically, this deal is a win for National Bank as it expands and diversifies the bank’s Canadian personal and commercial franchise across Canada, further enhancing risk-adjusted ROE,” D’Souza said in report. 

It will be three years after closing before National Bank can fully realize projected annual cost savings of about $270 million, and it will take some time to determine what other benefits it can wring out of the deal, D’Souza said. 

“The amount of revenue, cost and funding synergies realized will determine if National Bank paid a ‘fair price’ for CWB.”


'50-50 chance' that AI outsmarts humanity, Geoffrey Hinton says

Jun 14, 2024

Geoffrey Hinton remembers the moment he became the "godfather" of artificial intelligence.

It was more than a decade ago, at a meeting with other researchers, including fellow AI guru Andrew Ng, who gave him the title.

"It wasn’t intended as complimentary, I don’t think," Hinton recalled in our exclusive television interview.  “We just had a session where I was interrupting everybody and I was the senior guy there who had organized the meeting, so he started referring to me as the godfather."

Today, Hinton is using his influence to interrupt another conversation.

At a time when the AI boom is pushing tech company valuations into the trillions, Hinton is urging the industry to set aside vast sums of money to address an existential threat -- what happens if AI becomes smarter than humans?

"I think there’s a 50-50 chance it will get more intelligent than us in the next 20 years," he said.

"We’ve never had to deal with things more intelligent than us.  And so people should be very uncertain about what it will look like."

Given the unknowns, Hinton believes companies should be spending between 20 to 30 per cent of their computing resources to examine how this intelligence might eventually evade human control.

Currently, he doesn’t see firms spending anywhere close to that amount on safety.

"It would seem very wise to do lots of empirical experiments when it’s slightly less smart than us so we still have a chance at staying in control.”

Given the realities of capitalism, Hinton has little faith that companies individually will pick safety over profits.

So he wants political leaders to step in urgently.

"I think governments are the only thing powerful enough to slow that down."

AI getting smarter

In making his case, Hinton points to the rapid rise of OpenAI and its ChatGPT technology.

"If you take something like GPT-4, which is bigger than GPT-3, it is quite a lot smarter.  It answers a whole bunch of questions correctly that GPT-3 would get wrong."

"So we know these things will get more intelligent just by making them bigger.  But in addition to them getting more intelligent by being made bigger, we’ll have scientific breakthroughs."

Meanwhile, Hinton points to the fact that self-preservation is already being built into the industry’s technology, to ensure things like chatbots can function effectively when they encounter problems, such as data center disruptions.

"As soon as they’ve got self-interest, you’ll get evolution kicking in," he said.

"Suppose there’s two chatbots and one’s a bit more self-interested than the other…the slightly more self-interested one will grab more data centers because it knows it can get smarter if it gets more data centers to look at data with.  So now you’ve got competition between chatbots.  And as soon as evolution kicks in, we know what happens: the most competitive one wins, and we will be left in the dust if that happens."

Hinton juxtaposed that risk with the potential money to be made from this technology, as one of the key tensions that led OpenAI co-founder Ilya Sutskever to recently leave the company.

"The people interested in safety, like Ilya Sutskever, wanted significant resources to be spent on safety. People interested in profits, like Sam Altman, didn’t want to spend too many resources on that.

“I think (Altman) would like big profits,” he added.

Life after Google

Having spent more than 50 years leading research in this area, Hinton long ago became a hot commodity in Silicon Valley, which ultimately landed him at Google.

But last year, Hinton resigned his role at the company so he could speak more freely about the existential risks surrounding AI.

"In the spring of 2023, I began to realize that these digital intelligences we’re building might just be a lot better form of intelligence than us and we had to take seriously the idea that they were going to get smarter than us."

He says before Wall Street caught on to the AI opportunity, profits weren’t as much of a priority.

“When I was at Google, they had a big lead in all of this stuff.  And they were actually very responsible.”  They weren’t doing that much work on safety, but they didn’t release this stuff because they had a very good reputation and they didn’t want to besmirch their reputation [with] chatbots saying prejudicial things … so they were very responsible with it.  They used it internally, but didn’t release chatbots to the public even though they had them.  But as soon as OpenAI used some of the Google research on transformers to make things as good as Google had… and actually tune them up slightly better and give them to Microsoft, then Google couldn’t help getting involved in an arm’s race.”

Hinton added that skyrocketing stock market values — and competitive realities for these companies — is quickly lessening the industry’s focus on safety issues.

"It makes it clear to the big companies that they want to go full speed ahead and there’s a big race on between Microsoft, Google and possibly Amazon, Nvidia and Meta.  If any one of those (companies) pulled out, the others would keep going."

That’s not to say he doesn’t believe tech leaders aren’t concerned about the risks.

"Some people in industry —  particularly Elon Musk — have said this is a real threat. I don’t agree with much of what he says but that aspect I do agree with," Hinton said.

As for companies putting aside roughly a third of their computational resources for safety testing, Hinton is skeptical.  But if they were collectively required to do so, he could see a path towards that happening.

“I’m not sure they would object if all of them had to do it.  It would be equally difficult for all of them.  And I think that might be feasible."

And in the end, that is what leads Hinton to believe that government intervention is the only solution, despite the fact that many countries are already competing with each other to ensure they respectively have an AI lead.

"None of these countries want super intelligence to take over.  And that will force them to coordinate."

 

Home affordability to improve in Canada as rates fall and incomes rise, BMO says

One of Canada’s biggest banks says housing affordability is poised to gradually get better — but not enough to bring it close to pre-pandemic levels.

A combination of falling interest rates, roughly flat home prices and rising incomes will make buying a home easier for more Canadians, Bank of Montreal economists Robert Kavcic and Sal Guatieri wrote in a report to investors. Even in this scenario, however, affordability will still be “strained” by 2027, they said. 

Their forecast assumes a decline of 75 basis points in five-year mortgage rates to 4.25 per cent and flat home prices in 2024, followed by three years of 3 per cent annualized price growth and per-capita income growth of just under 3 per cent.

The report underscores the challenges faced by policymakers who are dealing with frustration, particularly among younger Canadians, over the cost of housing. “We do see progress, but it’s going to take a long time to unravel something that took years to develop,” Guatieri said in an interview. 


Prime Minister Justin Trudeau — whose party is lagging Pierre Poilievre’s Conservatives in the polls — has announced billions of dollars to accelerate home construction. Still, the government’s housing agency says that homes are not being built quickly enough to keep pace with rapid population gains. 

A surge of temporary residents such as foreign workers and students pushed the population growth rate last year to 3.2 per cent, one of the fastest in the world. It’s a “historic demand shock,” Guatieri and Kavcic wrote. 

The key driver of home-price growth is demographics, Guatieri said. “Even though the federal government is planning to curb the number of non-permanent residents, which will ultimately slow population growth maybe to 1 per cent or a little more, we still will see positive population growth.”

In contrast, an immediate return to “normal” affordability levels would require either a 15 per cent drop in home prices, a 25 per cent jump in incomes or a plunge in mortgage rates to 3 per cent or lower, the economists say — assuming all other factors remain equal. 

In an interview with Bloomberg last year, Housing Minister Sean Fraser said the government’s goal was to make shelter more affordable without driving down home prices. Trudeau echoed that in a recent interview with The Globe and Mail, saying: “Housing needs to retain its value.”