Sunday, June 16, 2024

Intercargo: Only One Bulk Carrier Sank in 2023

"We have come a long way since the ‘dark days’ of the 1980s," says Intercargo's chairman

iStock
iStock

PUBLISHED JUN 14, 2024 8:08 AM BY THE MARITIME EXECUTIVE


The dry bulk shipping sector is maintaining a trend of improving safety standards with the tightening of international regulatory framework and adoption of new technologies that have enhanced ship design cited as key factors in preventing the loss of vessels and lives.

Industry body Intercargo has released the annual Bulk Carrier Casualty Report 2024 indicating that despite a significant increase in the bulk fleet, there is a clear trend of safety improvements over the past decade. Over the period, the number of dry bulk vessels has increased by 20 percent, from about 10,400 in 2013 to 12,226 by January this year. The bulk fleet represents more than 40 percent of world tonnage and carries an estimated 55 percent of the global transport work.

Despite the increase, vessel losses have averaged only 2.1 per year, with 21 bulk carriers of more than 10,000 dwt reported lost over the 10-year period. These casualties caused the tragic loss of 89 seafarers’ lives through 2022, but not last year: In 2023, there was only one loss of a dry bulk vessel and no loss of lives. Bulk carrier M/V Yong Xing 56, which was sailing under the Chinese flag, was the only vessel lost in 2023 when it sank in Russia after being damaged in a collision with heavy ice flows. The 21 Chinese crew of the 15-year-old vessel were safely evacuated.

The report shows that during the past decade, vessels amounting to 1.78 million dwt in total have been lost, an average 177,526 dwt per year. The average age of the bulk carriers lost was 19.4 years.

Though the industry is recording improvements in safety standards, cargo liquefaction continues to be a major concern. It remains the greatest contributor to loss of life, accounting for 55 lives or 62 percent of the total loss of life in the past ten years. For vessels, groundings remain the greatest cause of ship losses, with nine losses or 43 percent of the total.

Intercargo highlights that when considering factors like high levels of trade, congested ports, older fleets, and extreme weather, the improvement in safety standards reflects an increased focus on measures cutting across safety awareness training, improved ship design, application of new technology and compliance with regulations.

“Bulk carrier safety must never be overlooked. We have come a long way since the ‘dark days’ of the 1980s, when we experienced many tragic losses of lives and vessels. Since then, safety performance of the sector has steadily improved,” said Dimitris Fafalios, Intercargo Chairman.

The current trend is a major shift from the 1990 to 2000 period when the bulk carrier sector was losing between five and 26 carriers annually, resulting in the loss of 23 to 186 seafarers respectively.

WAR IS ECOCIDE

Two Bulkers in Danger of Sinking After Houthi Attacks

sinking bulker
Tutor shown down at the stern after the attacks (FFEAU ALINDIEN photo from June 14)

PUBLISHED JUN 15, 2024 4:33 PM BY THE MARITIME EXECUTIVE

 

 

The Houthi issued an unverified claim on Saturday, June 15, that one of the two bulkers attacked last week has now sunk in the Gulf of Aden and a second is in danger of sinking in the Red Sea. Western officials have acknowledged that both vessels were abandoned and taking on water but did not confirm at this time that either has sunk.

The Houthi are saying that both vessels were targeted with multiple attacks which happened in the past 72 hours. They are asserting that the shipping companies had “violated the ban on access to the ports” of Israel.

The vessel which they are claiming to have sunk, Verbena (11,400 dwt) is reported to be owned by Ukrainian interests and managed from Poland. The general cargo ship was built in 2008 and is currently registered in Palau. According to the reports, the ship was carrying a cargo of wood construction material from Malaysia to Italy.

 

 

Two anti-ship cruise missiles hit the vessel while it was in the Gulf of Aden and it was struck for a second time in 24 hours, by one anti-ship ballistic missile. An unconfirmed video circulating online shows a large hole above the waterline. Reports said that there were fires aboard and one crewmember was seriously injured. EUNAVFOR Aspides reports the crewmember was airlifted to the Dutch support vessel HLMNS Karel Doorman for life saving surgery. Aspides reported the sailor was from Nepal although other reports have identified the nationality as Polish.

After initially saying the fires had been extinguished, UK Maritime Trade Operations in its update on Saturday reported the master of the ship said the fires were still burning and that the ship was sinking. The crew was evacuated from the vessel with the last confirmed reports that it was drifting 30 nautical miles northeast of Djibouti. Other ships were being warned that it was unlit and a danger to navigation. he Anna-Meta (56,280 dwt bulker registered in Cayman Islands) responded to the distress call and rescued the crew as it was abandoning ship. CENTCOM is reporting that the Iranian frigate IRIN Jamaran was eight nautical miles from the Verbena and did not respond to the distress call.

If the vessel has sunk, it would be the second lost during the conflict. In March, the bulker Rubymar sank several days after it was attacked. It had also been abandoned and was drifting in the Red Sea.

 

Photo released by EUNAVFOR Aspides of the evacuation of the injured crewmember from the Verbena

 

Additionally, they are reporting the Tutor, a Greek-owned bulker registered in Liberia, is in danger of sinking. France released a photo of the vessel showing it down at the stern.

The vessel was attacked on June 12 with a drone boat as well as missiles. Reports are that salvage tugs are proceeding to the vessel and are expected to arrive on Monday. The USS Philippine Sea and a French air defense frigate used helicopters to evacuate the 21 crewmembers, mostly Filipino from the vessel on Friday. One Filipino remains missing presumed deceased in the flooded engine room of the vessel. 

CENTCOM acknowledged “severe flooding and damage to the engine room,” caused by the drone boat. They are reporting the Tutor remains in the Red Sea and is slowly taking on water.

The Philippine government on Friday expressed its outrage at the attacks including from President Ferdinand Marcos Jr. who released a video assuring the country that they were doing everything possible to protect the country’s seafarers. The reports said the crew of the Tutor was being evacuated to Djibouti. The Philippines said it would review the work rules for seafarers. The IMO also issued a strong statement calling for further actions to immediately stop the attacks.

In response to the latest escalation, U.S. Central Command reports in the past 24 hours forces destroyed seven radars in Yemen. According to the statement, the radars allowed the Houthis to target maritime vessels and endanger commercial shipping. CENTCOM also reported that two more uncrewed surface vessels were destroyed in the Red Sea and that forces successfully destroyed one uncrewed aerial system launched from a Houthi-controlled area of Yemen over the Red Sea.

New Safety Warning as Greek Bulker is Abandoned and Drifting in Red Sea

drone attack boat
Suspected Houthi suicide drone boat, 2018 (file image courtesy Saudi coalition forces)

PUBLISHED JUN 14, 2024 3:19 PM BY THE MARITIME EXECUTIVE

 

The Greek-owned bulker Tutor has been abandoned with the Filipino crew evacuated two days after the vessel became the first confirmed casualty of a Houthi-launched remote-controlled boat. The Tutor becomes the third vessel abandoned after an attack inflicted serious damage and as a result, security experts have issued increased warnings and are advising reconsidering transits of the region.

The attack on the Tutor (82,357 dwt) took place on June 12 with the vessel which was built in 2022 being hit in what has been described as a sensitive area in the stern. The engine room of the vessel flooded leaving the ship unable to navigate and now without power. One crewmember, a Filipino is missing and presumed deceased, likely trapped in the engine room.

Earlier today, the Philippines reported that an evacuation was underway. The 21 remaining crewmembers, mostly Filipino, were reported heading for Djibouti. The Philippines is working with local authorities to arrange for the crew to be flown home.

The UK Maritime Trade Organizations is warning that the vessel is now drifting in the Red Sea. They informed shipping to be cautious as the ship is reported to be unlit while Reuters reports a salvage team is not expected to reach the vessel until Monday.

Ambrey today issued a public Threat Circular providing additional details and warnings based on its analysis of the incident. They highlight that the Houthi had used previous versions of the drone boats in the early phase of the Yemeni Civil War but since November 2023 had been concentrating on missiles and airborne drones. The Saudis reported attacks during the civil war on their vessels using the remote-controlled boats and U.S. Central Command has recently reported a few actions to stop these crafts.

The Threat Circular says the attacks are being staged using fishing boats which is consistent with the UKMTO’s description of the boat that hit the Tutor as being 5 to 7 meters (16 to 23 feet) in length. Ambrey highlights that they are typically fiberglass or wooden boats.

They are reporting that the Houthis are placing dummies on the boats in an attempt to disguise the threat. They also report that in past incidents a second skiff was in the area and believed to be controlling the radio-controlled vessel.

Ambrey reports that one of the attack boats washed up near the Bab al Mandeb Strait in January 2024. It was found they report to contain 25 kg of C4 explosives and 50 kg of TNT. It had three electronic switches using contact switches for the detonation. 

Based on this first successful attack against a merchant ship, Ambrey is advising vessels to review their threat level and that high-risk vessels are advised to re-consider their voyage and re-routing. They also recommend that crews should have a safe muster point well above the waterline and away from exterior walls. All deck movements should be stopped within the areas around Yemen and AIS transmissions and other signals should stop if suspicious activity is encountered.


Philippines to Review Seafarer Work Rules as Houthi Attacks Continue

Houthi attacks
After the death of two Filipinos on the True Confidence and a third sailor missing this week on the Tutor, the Philippines says it will review work rules for seafarers (CENTCOM)

PUBLISHED JUN 14, 2024 12:03 PM BY THE MARITIME EXECUTIVE

 

 

The government of the Philippines reports that a rescue mission is underway for the crew of the Greek-owned bulker Tutor that was flooded and disabled by two Houthi attacks on June 12. One seafarer, a Filipino, is still reported missing, while government officials said that efforts were underway to repatriate the 21 other crewmembers who are mostly Filipino.

President Ferdinand R. Marcos Jr. released a video statement to the people of his country assuring them that “we are doing everything that can be done,” for the crew aboard the Tutor. He said working with the authorities in the region they were “looking for ways to safely transfer the Filipino seafarers to Djibouti where help is underway.”

The Department of Migrant Workers held a press briefing in Manila to discuss the situation and the safety of Filipino crewmembers. They said that the Philippine government will take all necessary measures to secure the safety and well-being of the Filipino crew on board and to ensure justice.

Migrant Workers Secretary Hans Cacdac said they had spoken through video conference with the crew of the Tutor and that the seafarers were “safe and sound,” while still aboard the disabled vessel waiting for the rescue. He said they would be rescued “within the day,” but declined details for security reasons.

He reported that the department was also checking its records to determine if there were any Filipinos aboard the Verbena, the second vessel that was attacked, and also reported that one crewmember was injured. U.S. Central Command confirmed that aircraft from the USS Philippine Sea had airlifted the “severely injured” crewmember for medical attention. EUNAVFOR Aspides is reporting today that the crewmember was from Nepal and was taken to the Dutch support ship HLMNS Karel Doorman for life-saving surgery.

 

 

The Department of Migrant Workers highlighted that with the attacks continuing unabated, it would be reviewing its current policies and processes on whether it could further strengthen the protections for seafarers. They noted that the crew of the Tutor had signed consents to work aboard the vessels, but expressed concern about the continuing attacks. In March, two Filipino seafarers were killed aboard when the True Confidence was hit by a Houthi attack.

Late on Friday, June 14, the UK Maritime Trade Organizations confirmed that the crew of the Tutor has been evacuated. They are reporting that the ship is drifting in the Red Sea and unlit. Reuters says salvage teams are not expected to reach the vessel until Monday.

The Philippines said in April it barred Filipino seafarers from working on cruise and passenger ships that would be sailing through the Red Sea or Gulf of Aden. Most of the cruise ships scheduled for the area diverted and all suspended carrying passengers in the region.

Cacdac said the decision to bar Filipinos from working on those cruise ships was due to the number of crew and people typically on one of those ships. He said it was not because the safety of cargo ships was less important and said that they would now be looking at measures to protect the crews on all ships. He also said they would pursue justice without providing details.

IMO Secretary-General Arsenio Dominguez issued a video statement saying the IMO was appalled at the fact that seafarers going about their work continue to be targeted and injured. “I demand all governments and relevant organizations to provide maximum assistance to seafarers affected, and to spare no effort in finding a resolution to this crisis. This situation cannot go on,” said Dominguez in his statement,

U.S. Central Command increased its efforts in response to the recent barrage of attacks. In the past 24 hours, they said forces had destroyed one air defense sensor in a Houthi-controlled area of Yemen as well as an uncrewed surface vessel (USV) and two Houthi patrol boats in the Red Sea. The U.S. also said one aerial drone was destroyed. 


 

Russian Tanker Spotted for First Time in Mariupol as Port Handles Logistics

Mariupol
Fighting in the port area in April 2022 (Russian-aligned DPR forces)

PUBLISHED JUN 14, 2024 1:04 PM BY THE MARITIME EXECUTIVE


 

Mariupol on the Sea of Azov, which was the scene of intense fighting in the spring of 2022, is becoming a new Russian supply port according to unconfirmed reports from local officials. Ukrainian media is carrying reports from the Russian social media channel Telegram of the arrival of the first tanker as Russian President Vladimir Putin outlined terms for a cease-fire that was immediately rejected by Ukraine.

The mayor of Mariupol Vadym Boichenko is quoted as saying Russian forces are using the port city as a logistics base. He reports that the Russians have begun using the remaining infrastructure for military purposes and are laying new railway tracks.

On Telegram, Pyotr Andryushchenko, an adviser to the Ukrainian mayor of Mariupol, posted pictures of an unidentified tanker at the port. He reports it is the first time that Russia has sent a tanker into the occupied port.

“Don’t pay attention to the size of the tanker. One of these is enough to supply the front for two or three days, taking into account tank columns,” he writes in the caption of the photo. “This is about full preparation for the launch of the railway to the port.… This is either for diesel locomotives for long distances or for their armored cargo. There are no options,” the message says.

 

 

Last month, he also reported the movement of equipment in the direction of Berdyansk through Mariupol. He said they had spotted “dozens of trucks with ammunition and manpower.”

At the beginning of the invasion in February 2022, the U.S. reported that Russia had launched an amphibious assault on Ukraine's Sea of Azov coastline near Mariupol. The city was the tenth-largest in Ukraine and the second-largest city in the Donetsk region before the start of the war. It was also a major seaport.

After seizing the port, Ukraine accused the Russians of stealing grain stored in warehouses. Several ships were damaged or destroyed in the seaport. Italian shipping company Fratelli Cosulich reported that one of its bulkers was trapped in the port and was only released in November 2022 after months of fighting in the region.

News of the Russian use of the area for logistics came as Putin said he would issue a decree for a ceasefire if Ukraine ceded control of the occupied regions and agreed to abandon efforts to join NATO. The Associated Press is quoting Ukrainian officials as calling the proposal “manipulative” and “absurd.” It comes as Western nations are meeting in Switzerland to seek the first steps toward peace in Ukraine.
 


ECOCIDE

Norway Fines Shipping Company and Master for Having Heavy Fuel in Svalbard

Svalbard Norway
The Svalbard region prohibits ships from having heavy fuel oil (Longyearbyen harbor - Joxean Koret photo - CC BY-SA 2.0)

PUBLISHED JUN 14, 2024 1:56 PM BY THE MARITIME EXECUTIVE

 

 

Norwegian authorities for the first time have fined a shipping company and the master of a cargo vessel for having heavy fuel oil aboard the vessel in the Svalbard region. The governor of the region reports that the vessel was found in violation of the Svalbard Environment Act of 2022 which seeks to prevent dangers from oil spills into the environmentally sensitive regions of the Arctic.

Svalbard is a Norwegian archipelago between mainland Norway and the North Pole. One of the world’s northernmost inhabited areas, it is also an environmental protection zone that is popular with tourists. The 2022 act however was not for emissions but instead focused on the potential of oil spills into the waters.

Ships sailing to Svalbard are only permitted to have marine gas oil or similar lighter-weight viscosity fuel aboard. They can not use or have aboard HFO (Heavy Fuel Oil) due to the dangers of an accidental spill. The regulation notes the dangers to the environment and the difficulties in containing and retrieving oil spills.

According to Governor Lars Fause inspectors from the Norwegian Maritime Directorate discovered the fuel aboard the cargo ship during an inspection on June 6. The ban was effective on January 1, 2022, but it provided a two-year extension for cargo ships traveling to or from Longyearbyen and Barentsburg until 2024. 

Media reports from Norway are identifying the vessel as the Arklow Wind (16,800 dwt) that arrived from Poland to load coal. The vessel was built in 2019 and is registered in Ireland operating for Arklow Shipping.

The Governor reports a fine of approximately $93,000 was imposed on the shipping company. They also fined the master of the vessel a further $2,800.

The shipping company has not accepted the fine but agreed to post a guarantee for the amount. A hearing has been scheduled for the district court in early October.

After the guarantee was provided, the local authorities permitted the cargo ship to depart on June 12. She is reportedly bound for the UK.

Svalbard is a mineral and coal-rich area that has a more than 100-year history with mining. The state coal company has been active in the region since 1910 but in recent years has been closing down operations. Its last coal mine, the only one operating in Norway, is scheduled to end operations by the summer of 2025.

 

Top photo of Longyearbyen by Joxean Koret - CC BY-SA 2.0


Op-Ed: Countering China's Dominance in Rare-Earth Minerals

Rare earth
The Lynas Rare Earths open pit mine in Australia (Lynas Rare Earths file image)

PUBLISHED JUN 12, 2024 8:04 PM BY THE STRATEGIST

 

 

[By Ian Satchwell]

Markets for critical minerals are no longer shaping up to be the next components of the global economy to be dominated by China. They already are.

While Western nations were sleeping, China built vertically integrated supply chains for several critical minerals vital to the energy transition and high technology applications, including defense equipment.

Critical mineral supply chains are increasingly subject to Chinese government manipulation focussed on creating and maintaining monopolies and monopsonies. The scale and scope of this competition is presenting Australia and its partners with significant economic and security challenges. The Australian government’s June 2 divestment order to China-linked entities with shareholdings in rare earths developer Northern Minerals is an example of what will be needed to counter China’s domination of critical minerals supply.

Stricter foreign investment oversight may mitigate some of the more egregious attempts to grab control of minerals projects in Australia. Meanwhile, various coercive behaviors are directly affecting Australian mining interests at home and abroad and threatening growth of more diverse, secure and sustainable critical mineral supply chains. Several recent developments have highlighted the growing intensity of these threats.

The situation is becoming acute in several countries in resource-rich Africa, where Australian companies contributed 29 percent of the continent’s exploration spending for all minerals in 2023. (Canadian companies contributed another 29 percent.) Russia-influenced deterioration of security in several mineral-rich African nations is supporting China’s aspirations.

Two Australian companies, operators of world-scale lithium properties that are being developed into mines in the Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC) and Mali, have been edged out by China-based joint-venture partners amid disputes with national governments, plummeting share prices and suspensions from the ASX. Control of the resources will consolidate China’s role as effectively the world’s central banker for lithium: it already controls around 80 percent of processing and an increasing share of global mine production.

The DRC property is the Manono Project, which has the largest hard-rock lithium resource in the world. A dispute with China’s Zijin Mining Group over the project’s ownership has resulted in Australia’s AVZ Minerals being delisted from the Australian Stock Exchange. AVZ said in September it believed China and Congolese companies, including state-owned Cominiere, were ‘acting in concert to crystalize disputes with AVZ and disrupt and delay the development of the Manono Project with the aim of seizing control.’ The International Center for Settlement of Investment Disputes made orders in AVZ’s favour in January, but the company says the DRC government has failed to comply with them.

In the situation in Mali, Australian company Leo Lithium Ltd agreed in May to sell its stake in the large-scale Goulamina lithium project under development there to China’s Ganfeng Lithium, relinquishing project management. That followed a dispute with the government of Mali and its September 2023 suspension from the ASX. Leo Lithium’s shares were valued at 51 cents at the time of suspension, down from a high as $1.25 in mid-2023, shortly before the dispute emerged. Ganfeng Lithium paid Leo Lithium the equivalent of 43 cents a share. Leo Lithium said the sale was in the best interests of its shareholders in light of ‘challenging’ sovereign and security risks in Mali.

Australia, through its mining companies, has been the largest foreign investor in Mali and neighboring Burkina Faso. Russian influence in recent years has worsened Mali’s longstanding political instability and driven further deterioration in security for the population and businesses there. Security of mines in West Africa, which the Australian Department of Foreign Affairs and Trade has sought to support through its annual mine security conference there, has become ugly.

On 30 May, the US government sanctioned companies linked with the Kremlin-controlled Wagner Group operating in Mali and the Central African Republic (CAR), saying ‘Wagner Group personnel have engaged in an ongoing pattern of serious criminal activity, including mass executions, rape, child abductions, and other brutalities against innocents in the CAR and Mali.’ The Wagner Group has taken over several of Mali’s gold mines and allegedly is producing gold to fund the Russian regime.

Market manipulation is another method of coercion. China’s supply chain dominance for several critical minerals gives it the market power to crush competition, as industry leader Angus Barker points out.

China’s investment in low-cost but environmentally harmful nickel laterite mining and smelting in Indonesia has delivered cheap nickel for batteries and stainless steel made in China. This has driven down global nickel prices, threatening the viability of higher-cost but more socially and environmentally responsible nickel production. China’s investment in new lithium mining capacity in Africa and Australia and its domination of processing could distort the market for that battery mineral.

China-linked supply also dominates markets for several other minerals and metals, including rare earths needed for both the global energy transition and defense equipment. Australia’s Iluka Resources highlighted the situation at its recent annual general meeting, with managing director Tom O’Leary saying, ‘There are clear, ongoing efforts, including by Chinese state-owned entities, to extend their nation’s monopoly by controlling Australia’s rare earth deposits.’

China has used its virtual monopoly in rare earths to apply geopolitical coercion. In 2010 it withheld rare earths supply to Japan amid a territorial dispute. This helped to trigger Japanese investment in the Weld Range rare earths project of Lynas Rare Earths in Western Australia.

Recent Australian government crackdowns have targeted the use of some coercive actions. In 2023 the Foreign Investment Review Board (FIRB) rejected a bid by the Chinese company Yuxiao Fund for a higher stake in the Browns Range project in Kimberley, Western Australia, of ASX-listed Northern Minerals. In early June the government sanctioned associates of Yuxiao Fund after discovering they had tried to circumvent FIRB rules in taking up further shares. Just before this order to dispose of shareholdings, Yuxiao Fund had successfully petitioned for removal of Northern Minerals’ executive chairman after he reported the share buying by Yuxiao Fund’s associates.

It has now emerged that Northern Minerals suffered a malign cyber security breach and data theft in March. Coincidence? Possibly. But why was this particular small mining company targeted?

One explanation is that the output of heavy rare earths from Browns Range will be processed at the under-construction Eneabba rare earths refinery operated by Iluka Resources, also a heavy rare earths producer. This will be the only non-China production of this scarce product used in high-performance permanent magnets essential to components of defense equipment such as guidance systems.

Rare earths mining and processing proposals in the United States, including the Lynas Rare Earths processing plant in Texas, have been subjected to fake social media attacks in recent years, seemingly designed to stir up local opposition.

Supply chain allies, including Australia, the United States, Britain, the European Union and Canada have taken some steps to counter coercion, but as part two of this article will explain, more concerted action is needed to assure more diverse and secure minerals supply.

Ian Satchwell is an adjunct professor at the Sustainable Minerals Institute at the University of Queensland and a senior fellow at ASPI. 

This article appears courtesy of ASPI and may be found in its original form here

The opinions expressed herein are the author's and not necessarily those of The Maritime Executive.

WWIII

Op-Ed: What Should the Response Be if China Hurts a Servicemember at Sea?

China
A Royal Australian Air Force photo of a Chinese destroyer that directed a dangerous laser at an Australian Defence Force aircraft (Defence Department)

PUBLISHED JUN 13, 2024 7:15 PM BY THE LOWY INTERPRETER

 

 

[By Dr. Peter Layton]

Repeating an aggressive action four times shows intent. In February 2022, a Chinese warship directed a dangerous laser at an Australian Defence Force aircraft. In June 2022, a Chinese air force fighter dropped chaff in front of an ADF patrol jet, endangering it. In November 2023, a Chinese warship injured Australian navy divers with a sonar burst. In May 2024, a Chinese air force fighter dropped flares in front of an ADF helicopter, imperilling it.

Unsurprisingly, Australian Defence Minister Richard Marles publicly voiced the nation’s concern about these actions at the recent Shangri-La Dialogue in Singapore. In a closely timed move, Chief of Defence Force General Angus Campbell was similarly vocal.

China has form. This year China’s Coast Guard, a branch of the military, used high powered water cannon on Philippine vessels, damaging the ships and causing injuries among the crews. The attacks on the Filipino ships happened as a four nation meeting was underway in Hawaii discussing the increasingly hostile Chinese actions in the South China Sea. Instead of being deterred by collective concern, China doubled down and intensified its actions.

It is now plausible that the Chinese military’s grey zone actions may in the near future seriously injure, or even kill, Australian military personnel. It is time for the Australian government to not just publicly express concern, but plan what its response might be. Such an event would trigger considerable public disquiet. Preferably the government would manage such anxiety through timely leadership rather than be itself led by public anger. Australia’s relationship with China is important and a prudent response would be essential.

Crucially, to try to deter China, the government needs to make sure the Chinese government and military are aware what Australia’s reactions may be. China may be working under misapprehensions given its actions so far have meet only with verbal rebukes. The idea that the “east is rising and the West is declining” is popular in China and pushed by its leaders. Hubris rules.To deter China, there would need to be some threat of tangible punishment. The Australian government might devise a range of options to allow tailoring its response to the Chinese provocation.

First, the United Kingdom and others now expel Russian diplomatic staff when Russia undertakes hostile actions in their countries. China has a large diplomatic presence in Australia particularly in its consulates at the state capitals. For example, the consulate in Brisbane has 14 diplomatic staff while that in Sydney has some 32. Expelling some consulate staff sends a message but keeps diplomatic channels open.

Second, economic actions may be taken. These might include banning Chinese investment in Australia, albeit this is already declining. Such a ban could be nuanced in being targeted against state-owned-enterprises. Moreover, constraints might be placed on the operations of the nine Chinese airlines that fly into Australia. Nationalising specific Chinese assets in Australia, such as the Darwin port, would be a possibility to consider at the time.

Third, enforcing selective trade sanctions. When China imposed trade sanctions on Australia, it did not stop buying Australian iron ore or natural gas, which suggests that restricting these commodities might worry Chinese leaders. This action would need to be coordinated with like-minded partners, so that other countries would not fill Australia’s place in such a circumstance.

Fourth, the Chinese leadership continually frets over new multilateral organisations concerned with defence and security. They have long expressed angst about the possibility of an “Asian NATO”, even if no state has ever suggested it. However, there are lesser multilateral steps that might be taken in response to violent Chinese military actions.

Australia could warn Beijing it would act to resurrect the 1954–77 Southeast Asia Treaty Organization (SEATO). SEATO involved US alliance treaty partners, had a Secretary General, a multi-national council, committees for economics, security, and information, and a small military planning staff undertaking contingency planning and organising multi-national military exercises.

Such a threat would be an empty one unless supported by other alliance treaty partners: the United States, Japan, South Korea, the Philippines and perhaps Thailand. Australian diplomacy could pre-emptively seek in principle support. Having multinational backing would also send a strong deterrence signal to Beijing that its grey zone actions needed to stay non-violent. Such support may be readily forthcoming because a violent Chinese action may be taken individually against personnel from these partner countries, and so agreeing on a collective stance before such violence would be reassuring.

The last option highlights that China’s growing aggression is an international concern. The exact response to Chinese military force grey zone actions that injured or killed Australian military personnel would be determined by the Australian government of the time. Nevertheless, considering the issue now, making sure China realises there would be tangible cost for such actions, and gaining anticipatory diplomatic support internationally would be useful. Hopefully, it would deter China becoming violent as its grey zone actions and the worsening trends today suggest. Australian actions now could prevent real problems in the near future.

Dr Peter Layton is a Visiting Fellow at the Griffith Asia Institute, an Associate Fellow RUSI (UK) and a Fellow of the Australian Security Leaders Climate Group. A retired RAAF Group Captain, Peter has extensive experience in force structure development and taught national security strategy at the US National Defense University. 

The opinions expressed herein are the author's and not necessarily those of The Maritime Executive.

 

Russian Warships Carry Out Missile Exercise Off U.S. East Coast

Gorshkov
Admiral Gorshkov (file image courtesy Forsvaret)

PUBLISHED JUN 11, 2024 8:55 PM BY THE MARITIME EXECUTIVE

 

The Russian Navy carried out a small-scale missile drill off the U.S. East Coast on Tuesday, according to the Russian Ministry of Defense. 

The Russian nuclear-powered submarine Kazan and guided missile frigate Admiral Gorshkov are under way to Cuba for a scheduled port call, and they paused mid-voyage on Tuesday for an exercise in the Atlantic. According to the Kremlin, they conducted a test of long range anti-ship missiles before resuming their voyage. The Gorshkov also tested its air defense systems. 

Gorshkov was the first vessel to carry Russia's first hypersonic antiship missile, the Zircon. The Zircon (or Tsirkon) has a claimed top speed of Mach 8-9. Gorshkov was involved in live-fire trials for the missile platform in 2020-21, and she received an operational missile loadout in December 2022, according to the Russian Ministry of Defense. In past deployments, NATO forces have tracked her movements closely.

Russian media outlets have emphasized that the U.S. East Coast will be within Zircon range during the trip, and that the missile can also be used to strike ground targets (as it has in Ukraine). None of the warships are nuclear-armed, according to Cuban authorities. 

Based on open-source intelligence, the Russian flotilla was operating off Florida early this week, closely escorted by three U.S. government vessels.

While the Russian Navy deployment is small, and the White House does not view it as a threat, it is symbolic. The mission is widely viewed as a response to American support for the defense of Ukraine, as well as an attempt to demonstrate Russian sea power. "This is about Russia showing that it’s still capable of some level of global power projection," an American official told AP.