It’s possible that I shall make an ass of myself. But in that case one can always get out of it with a little dialectic. I have, of course, so worded my proposition as to be right either way (K.Marx, Letter to F.Engels on the Indian Mutiny)
Monday, June 17, 2024
Understanding the Green Sahara’s collapse
TUM scientists develop new method for early detection of climate tipping points
TECHNICAL UNIVERSITY OF MUNICH (TUM)
From the last ice age until around 6000 years ago, the region now known as the Sahara Desert was a lush, green landscape teeming with life. This “African Humid Period” ended abruptly, transforming this thriving region into the arid terrain seen today. Scientists have long puzzled over how the slow changes in solar radiation due to variations in Earth’s orbit could lead to such an abrupt large-scale climate transition. This mystery highlights the broader challenge of understanding and predicting abrupt shifts in natural systems—commonly linked to tipping points.
New study by Andreas Morr and Prof. Niklas Boers, researchers at TUM and PIK, introduces an advanced early detection method that provides more accurate and reliable early warnings, particularly under more realistic external conditions. Traditional methods assume that random disturbances in a system are uncorrelated in time. However, this is not realistic for climate systems, because it assumes each day's weather would be independent of the previous day. In reality, tomorrow's weather heavily depends on today's. This mismatch reduces the reliability of conventional methods for early warning signals. The new method by Morr and Boers addresses this limitation by developing estimators of system stability designed specifically for more realistic climate conditions.
When applying their methods to the desertification of the West Sahara, they found a clear early warning before the loss of vegetation, consistent with the crossing of a tipping point. “Our findings suggest that the abrupt end of the African Humid Period was likely caused by a weakening of the system's stability as the orbital configuration of the Earth changed, gradually pushing the system toward a tipping point”, says Andreas Morr. Niklas Boers adds: “The advanced detection method that we developed enhances our ability to monitor and respond to potential tipping points in various natural systems. Our results suggest that large-scale climate tipping events such as this can in principle be anticipated, hopefully enabling timely interventions.”
By improving the accuracy of early warning signals, the research supports better preparedness and response strategies, ultimately helping to protect ecosystems and human societies from severe impacts of potential climate tipping points that might be crossed due to anthropogenic climate change.
A group of leading academics are calling for the UN Sustainable Development Goals to be extended past their 2030 target date and updated with consideration for the impact of artificial intelligence (AI), and with more input from communities affected by the goals, among other recommendations.
Halfway to the targeted completion date of 2030, many of the UN’s ambitious 17 Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) are off track or progressing too slowly, due to the slowing of the global economy by COVID and international conflicts. In the run-up to the Summit of the Future in New York next September, the authors are recommending the goals be extended to 2050 and retooled with an ambitious timeline and greater clarity about specific goals — such as those pertaining to climate and “planetary health”.
Writing in Nature, the authors recommend the UN’s 180 member states further extend many of the goals’ individual targets to as far as 2050. They also recommend action to reworking individual targets for each goal. The paper was led by Francesco Fuso-Nerini, director of the Climate Action Center at KTH Royal Institute of Technology and honorary researcher at the University of Oxford; together with Mariana Mazzucato, University College London; Johan Rockström, Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research; Harro van Asselt, University of Cambridge; Jim W. Hall, University of Oxford; Stelvia Matos, University of Surrey; Åsa Persson, Stockholm Environmental Institute; Benjamin Sovacool, Boston University; Ricardo Vinuesa, KTH Royal Institute of Technology; and Jeffrey Sachs, Columbia University.
Enacted in 2015, the 17 Sustainable Development Goals cover such global challenges as hunger, poverty, health, climate action, education, gender equality, peace and biodiversity. Each of the goals is comprised of specific targets.
Fuso-Nerini says some goals and regions have progressed faster than others, but most of the world is lagging behind – particularly on climate and biodiversity targets. Furthermore, many targets are too vague and difficult to measure. Another key challenge is to prevent countries from progressing at the expense of others, he says.
The paper refers to an urgent need for updated pathways and milestones toward reaching all SDGs including integrating net-zero greenhouse gases emissions, as well as strengthening global governance of the transition through existing frameworks agreed upon by the members of the UN. The authors also say adapting the goals to be relevant to 2050 will require more inclusive consultations with scientists, indigenous populations, marginalized communities and the private sector.
As steps toward strengthening the goals, they recommend measures such as framing goals as missions with clear targets, and reforming global finance architecture to enable more public investment in the reaching the goals.
Planetary health however occupies a central issue in the framework of the SDGs, he says, given that the world has already transgressed six of nine planetary boundaries that regulate the stability and functioning of Earth.
“Achieving the social and economic goals can’t be done at the expense of planet,” he says. “What keeps getting left behind are the climate and biodiversity goals, so the base layer for achieving the SDGs is a healthy planet that can support the achievement of all social and economic goals.”
The analysis of the content and use of prehistoric vessels has become a valuable source of information on the food patterns and subsistence practices of past societies. A research conducted on the materials found at the Huescan sites of Cueva de Chaves (Bastaràs), at 640 metres above sea level, and at Espluga de la Puyascada (La Fueva), at 1,300 metres above sea level, in a strictly Pyrenean mountain region, now has yielded the first direct evidence of dairy product consumption and processing in the Pyrenees during the earliest stages of the Neolithic.
The study was conducted by prehistorians from the Universitat Autònoma de Barcelona (UAB) and the University of Zaragoza, and chemists from the University of Strasbourg, France, on materials on display at the Huesca Museum. The findings have now been published in the journal Archaeological and Anthropological Sciences.
The research was conducted through a combination of techniques used to identify organic residues and the isotopic characterisation of fatty acids to determine animal origin, as well as data obtained of the morphology and functionality of ceramics and the archaeozoological studies of both sites.
The analysis of organic residues preserved in the argillaceous matrix of the interior of 36 ceramic vessels indicates that 7,500 years ago dairy products were already processed and consumed in the Central Pyrenees. The correlation between the residues of dairy fats and the different forms of the pottery suggests, moreover, that all the processes (preparation, consumption and storage) were carried out in both settlements.
This “questions previous considerations in which dairy consumption in the Pyrenees was thought to have begun much later”, points out Nàdia Tarifa, researcher from the University of Strasbourg when this study was conducted, and lead autor of the paper. “It was always thought that prehistoric social dynamics in mountainous regions were slower or ‘less evolved’ than in coastal regions. Our study adds solid proof to previous faunistic studies conducted in both sites, which had pointed to dairy farming in these mountainous regions at the very early stages of the Neolithic period”, Tarifa states.
The study also shows how pig-derived products may have been processed or stored in ceramic vessels at both sites, which would indicate the importance of this species for the early mountain farming economies. In contrast to the results for milk, researchers also observed variations between the two sites in terms of the exploitation of meat from ruminants and pigs, with a predominance of the former in Espluga de la Puyascada and the latter in Cueva de Chaves. These differences could be related to the characteristics of the settlements and their surroundings, and to the methods of meat processing.
The researchers also identified residues from processed vegetables, as well as from pine resin. The latter substance would have been used to waterproof the inside of the vessels.
The results support the idea that in the early Neolithic period in the Pyrenean area there was a mixed economy based on integrated agriculture and livestock farming (in which one supported the other), with sheep herds as the main source of meat and milk.
“Our findings provide a better understanding of consumption habits and the technological use of resources in the early Neolithic period in the Pyrenees and open up new avenues of research to deepen our understanding of the social and economic dynamics of ancient societies, especially in mountainous areas”, says Alejandro Sierra, researcher at the UAB and co-author of the study.
Ceramic remains from Espluga de Puyascada Cave (La Fueva, Huesca) analysed in the study. Author: R. Laborda
Milk production in pottery. Evidence for various exploited resources used by the first farmers in Central Pyrenees using the morphological, chemical and stable carbon isotopic composition of organic residues from ceramic vessels
ARTICLE PUBLICATION DATE
17-Jun-2024
Poll: Majority of Americans say key COVID-19 policies were a good idea—but views of individual policies vary
Those with negative feelings express concerns about policies staying in place for too long, economic impacts, political influence, and lack of personal choice
HARVARD T.H. CHAN SCHOOL OF PUBLIC HEALTH
IMAGE:
SOURCE: HARVARD T.H. CHAN SCHOOL OF PUBLIC HEALTH/DE BEAUMONT FOUNDATION POLL, U.S. VIEWS ON PANDEMIC POLICIES: LESSONS FOR EMERGING OUTBREAKS, MARCH 21 - APR 2, 2024, N=1,017 U.S. ADULTS AGES 18 AND OLDER. PERCENTAGES MAY NOT ADD UP TO 100% DUE TO ROUNDING.
CREDIT: SOURCE: HARVARD T.H. CHAN SCHOOL OF PUBLIC HEALTH/DE BEAUMONT FOUNDATION POLL, U.S. VIEWS ON PANDEMIC POLICIES: LESSONS FOR EMERGING OUTBREAKS, MARCH 21 - APR 2, 2024, N=1,017 U.S. ADULTS AGES 18 AND OLDER. PERCENTAGES MAY NOT ADD UP TO 100% DUE TO ROUNDING.
Boston, MA—A majority of Americans say that several key policies to stop the spread of COVID-19 were generally a good idea in hindsight, according to a new national poll by Harvard T.H. Chan School of Public Health and the de Beaumont Foundation. The poll also found, however, that views varied across policies, and many say the policies had negative impacts.
The poll, U.S. Views on Pandemic Policies: Lessons for Emerging Outbreaks, was conducted March 21 to April 2, 2024, among a nationally representative, probability-based sample of 1,017 adults ages 18 or older.
A majority of Americans say four key pandemic policies were “generally a good idea” in retrospect, including those related to:
• Mask requirements in stores and businesses – 70%
Forty-two percent of Americans say all four policies were a good idea and another third (37%) say only some were a good idea. Only 20% say all were “generally a bad idea.”
Views on these pandemic policies vary by subgroup characteristics, including political party affiliation, race, ethnicity, and metropolitan status. The percentage who say all four policies were generally a good idea:
• Black adults (62%); Hispanic/Latino adults (55%); white adults (32%)
• People living in urban areas (55%); suburban areas (39%); rural areas (29%)
Notably, there is some policy receptivity among all subgroups, with majorities of each subgroup saying at least one of the four policies was generally a good idea. For example, 62% of Republicans say at least one was generally a good idea, as do 70% of people living in rural areas.
Reasons given for disliking pandemic policies are both practical and principled. Among those who say key policies were generally a bad idea, top reasons include beliefs that policies went on too long (84–87% across policies), concerns about political motivations behind policy decisions (60–81%), concerns about effects on the economy (68–91%), and perceived lack of personal choice for the people involved (75–94%). Among those who say school closures were generally a bad idea, nearly all say major reasons include their perceptions that policies had negative effects on children’s learning (97%) and mental health (91%).
“In order for all Americans to benefit from public health protections during outbreaks, leaders need to see there are opportunities to build on public receptivity, even where it is limited, and understand where people’s concerns come from,” said survey director Gillian SteelFisher, director of global polling in the Harvard Opinion Research Program and principal research scientist at Harvard Chan School. “These data suggest that keeping outbreak response policies focused on the most at-risk populations, communicating clear, limited time frames, and considering the broader economic and societal impacts of policies could go a long way to maintaining public support in the next outbreak and beyond.”
“Public health professionals need to know that these vital protections are still available in their toolboxes,” added Brian Castrucci, president and CEO of the de Beaumont Foundation “Understanding what drives resistance for some people can help inform the best ways to use and communicate about these policies should we need to call on them in the future.”
Additional findings from the poll show that Americans have differing beliefs about how severe the threat of COVID-19 was early on in the pandemic. There are very few total COVID-deniers, with only 3% saying COVID-19 was not a health threat to anyone early in the pandemic. But many say COVID-19 was not a serious health threat to everyone early on. This includes 14% who say it was a serious health threat only to people who are very old or frail and 45% who say COVID-19 was a serious health threat to more people, including people who are very old or frail as well as those with underlying medical conditions. About one third (37%) say it was a serious health threat to everyone early on. Americans who say the threat was more widespread early on are more likely to say key pandemic policies were generally a good idea.
Methodology
Results are based on survey research conducted by Harvard T.H. Chan School of Public Health, in partnership with the de Beaumont Foundation. Representatives from each organization worked closely to develop the survey questionnaire, while analyses were conducted by researchers from Harvard and the fielding team at SSRS of Glen Mills, Pennsylvania.
The project team at Harvard was led by Gillian SteelFisher, principal research scientist and global polling director of the Harvard Opinion Research Program, and included Hannah Caporello, senior research projects manager, and Mary Findling, assistant director.
The project team at the de Beaumont Foundation was led by Brian Castrucci, president and CEO of the de Beaumont Foundation, and included Katy Evans, senior program officer, Emma Dewhurst, program and research associate, Mark Miller, vice president of communications, and Nalini Padmanabhan, communications director.
Interviews were conducted with a representative sample of 1,017 adults, age 18 and older, in English and Spanish online and by telephone. Respondents were reached online and by phone through the SSRS Opinion Panel, a nationally representative, probability-based panel. Panelists were randomly recruited via an Address Based Sampling (ABS) frame and from random-digit dial (RDD) samples on SSRS surveys. Most panelists completed the survey online with a small subset who do not access the internet completing by phone. The interview period was March 21 to April 2, 2024.
When interpreting findings, one should recognize that all surveys are subject to sampling error. Results may differ from what would be obtained if the whole U.S. adult population had been interviewed. The margin of error for the full sample is ±4.1 percentage points. Subgroup differences were emphasized only if they differed by at least 10 percentage points, for statistical significance and practical implications. Race/ethnicity was categorized as non-Hispanic white, non-Hispanic Black/African American, and Hispanic/Latino. For political party affiliation, Democrat/Republican include those who lean toward either party, and Independent includes unaffiliated adults who do not lean toward either party.
Possible sources of non-sampling error include non-response bias, as well as question wording and ordering effects. Non-response in web and telephone surveys produces some known biases in survey-derived estimates because participation tends to vary for different subgroups of the population. To compensate for these known biases and for variations in the probability of selection within and across households, sample data are weighted in a multi-step process by probability of selection and recruitment, response rates by survey type, and demographic variables (race/ethnicity, gender, age, education, region, the frequency of internet use, civic engagement, and population density) to reflect the true U.S. population. Other techniques, including random sampling, multiple contact attempts, replicate subsamples, and systematic respondent selection within households, are used to ensure that the sample is representative.
###
Harvard T.H. Chan School of Public Healthbrings together dedicated experts from many disciplines to educate new generations of global health leaders and produce powerful ideas that improve the lives and health of people everywhere. As a community of leading scientists, educators, and students, we work together to take innovative ideas from the laboratory to people’s lives—not only making scientific breakthroughs, but also working to change individual behaviors, public policies, and health care practices. Each year, more than 400 faculty members at Harvard Chan teach 1,000-plus full-time students from around the world and train thousands more through online and executive education courses. Founded in 1913 as the Harvard-MIT School of Health Officers, the School is recognized as America’s oldest professional training program in public health.
Founded in 1998, the de Beaumont Foundationcreates and invests in bold solutions to create communities where everyone can achieve their best possible health. Its focus is advancing policy, building partnerships, strengthening the public health system, and improving health communication. Recognizing that health is the foundation for a strong nation, de Beaumont incites action and drives change to create thriving communities and improve lives.
Study finds US does not have housing shortage, but shortage of affordable housing
Analysis of markets across country shows most have enough housing units existing, but incomes often fall short
UNIVERSITY OF KANSAS
LAWRENCE — The United States is experiencing a housing shortage. At least, that is the case according to common belief — and is even the basis for national policy, as the Biden administration has stated plans to address the housing supply shortfall.
But new research from the University of Kansas finds that most of the nation’s markets have ample housing in total, but nearly all lack enough units affordable to very low-income households.
Kirk McClure, professor of public affairs & administration emeritus at KU, and Alex Schwartz of The New School co-wrote a study published in the journal Housing Policy Debate. They examined U.S. Census Bureau data from 2000 to 2020 to compare the number of households formed to the number of housing units added to determine if there were more households needing homes than units available.
The researchers found only four of the nation’s 381 metropolitan areas experienced a housing shortage in the study time frame, as did only 19 of the country’s 526 "micropolitan" areas — those with 10,000-50,000 residents.
The findings suggest that addressing housing prices and low incomes are more urgently needed to address housing affordability issues than simply building more homes, the authors wrote.
“There is a commonly held belief that the United States has a shortage of housing. This can be found in the popular and academic literature and from the housing industry,” McClure said. “But the data shows that the majority of American markets have adequate supplies of housing available. Unfortunately, not enough of it is affordable, especially for low-income and very low-income families and individuals.”
McClure and Schwartz also examined households in two categories: Very low income, defined as between 30% and 60% of area median family income, and extremely low income, with incomes below 30% of area median family income.
The numbers showed that from 2010 to 2020, household formation did exceed the number of homes available. However, there was a large surplus of housing produced in the previous decade. In fact, from 2000 to 2020, housing production exceeded the growth of households by 3.3 million units. The surplus from 2000 to 2010 more than offset the shortages from 2010 to 2020.
The numbers also showed that nearly all metropolitan areas have sufficient units for owner occupancy. But nearly all have shortages of rental units affordable to the very low-income renter households.
While the authors looked at housing markets across the nation, they also examined vacancy rates, or the difference between total and occupied units, to determine how many homes were available. National total vacancy rates were 9% in 2000 and 11.4% by 2010, which marked the end of the housing bubble and the Great Recession. By the end of 2020, the rate was 9.7%, with nearly 14 million vacant units.
“When looking at the number of housing units available, it becomes clear there is no overall shortage of housing units available. Of course, there are many factors that determine if a vacant is truly available; namely, if it is physically habitable and how much it costs to purchase or rent the unit,” McClure said. “There are also considerations over a family’s needs such as an adequate number of bedrooms or accessibility for individuals with disabilities, but the number of homes needed has not outpaced the number of homes available.”
Not all housing markets are alike, and while there could be shortages in some, others could contain a surplus of available housing units. The study considered markets in all core-based statistical areas as defined by the Census Bureau. Metropolitan areas saw a nationwide surplus of 2.7 million more units than households in the 20-year study period, while micropolitan areas had a more modest surplus of about 300,000 units.
Numbers of available housing units and people only tell part of the story. An individual family needs to be able to afford housing, whether they buy or rent. Shortages of any scale appear in the data only when considering renters, the authors wrote. McClure and Schwartz compared the number of available units in four submarkets of each core-based statistical area to the estimated number of units affordable to renters with incomes from 30% to 60% of the area median family income. Those rates are roughly equivalent to the federal poverty level and upper level of eligibility for various rental assistance programs. Only two metropolitan areas had shortages for very-low-income renters, and only two had surpluses available for extremely-low-income renters.
Helping people afford the housing stock that is available would be more cost effective than expanding new home construction in the hope that additional supply would bring prices down, the authors wrote. Several federal programs have proven successful in helping renters and moderate-income buyers afford housing that would otherwise be out of reach.
“Our nation’s affordability problems result more from low incomes confronting high housing prices rather than from housing shortages,” McClure said. “This condition suggests that we cannot build our way to housing affordability. We need to address price levels and income levels to help low-income households afford the housing that already exists, rather than increasing the supply in the hope that prices will subside.”
On thin ice: Greenland's last Inuit polar bear hunters
Agence France-Presse June 17, 2024 Legendary: Inuit polar bear hunter Hjelmer Hammeken rides his dog sled on the sea ice off Greenland (Olivier MORIN/AFP)
Inuit hunter Hjelmer Hammeken spotted a ringed seal near its breathing hole on the Greenland ice. In his white camouflage, he slowly crept towards it then lay down in the snow and waited.
When the right moment came, Hammeken tapped his feet together. The seal lifted its head to look where the noise was coming from and the hunter fired.
He butchered the animal there and then, eating some of its liver while it was still warm, as his ancestors have done for centuries -- the hunter's reward.
Such scenes are common around the hugely isolated Inuit community of Ittoqqortoormiit, close to Scoresby Sound, the world's biggest fjord on the frozen east coast of Greenland.
All the men hunt in this colourful little settlement of 350 souls.
While only the professionals track polar bears, everyone hunts seats, narwhals and Arctic musk ox.
But for the last two decades climate change and hunting quotas have been threatening the livelihood on which Inuit families have long survived.
Hammeken is a legend in Greenland, its greatest polar bear hunter.
AFP followed him and other professional Inuit hunters for several days during the hunting season.
He killed seven this year to add to his tally of 319 over the last half century.
When he arrives at the edge of the ice, where it meets the Arctic Ocean, he commands respect.
Hammeken made his reputation in the 1980s. He would go out alone for several weeks at a time, crossing the glaciers of the fjord with his dogs with little more than a tent to bring back up to three polar bears.
It was the golden age for the hunters, when polar bear skins could be sold abroad.
That ended in 2005 when quotas were put in place to slow the fall in polar bear numbers. This year's quota of 35 had been hit by the end of April, which was why Hammeken was hunting seals, on which there is no quota.
Climate change has turned the lives of the Inuit upside down since the beginning of the century -- with the Arctic warming four times faster than the global average.
"Before we could hunt all year," said Hammeken, 66. "In winter the ice was harder... and the fjord never melted."
But now the ice is retreating and the Sound is open and navigable between mid-July and mid-September.
With the young hunter Martin Madsen at his side, Hammeken scanned the horizon. The wind had come up and the sea with it.
It was time to go. The ice, which is thin at the edge of the sheet, had become unstable, and risked breaking up and taking him and his protege with it.
"In August, all the ice sheet will have melted. There will be just the sea, a rough sea," which will make hunting seals and narwhals -- which are also subject to a quota -- difficult, Hammeken said.
With little ice on which to hunt seals, he wondered how the polar bears would survive. Stuck on land and starving now in the summers, they are coming closer and closer to the village looking for food.
- The young hunter -
Back in Ittoqqortoormiit young Madsen looked out the window and checked the weather forecast on his smartphone. With bright sun and no fog, it was a perfect day for hunting. He got his guns and headed for the edge of the ice.
The other hunters are already in position, scanning the wind-whipped water for signs of seals. Not that far away -- within two kilometres or so -- three polar bears are also out on the prowl for seals themselves.
To attract their prey, the Inuit scrape the ice with a long wooden stick called a "tooq", which imitates the sound seals make when they poke through their breathing holes in the ice.
When a hunter spots one, he shouts, "Aanavaa!" ("Look, a seal!") and whistles to attract its attention. If he misses his shot, the others are free to fire.
That day Madsen missed the seal he spotted. But the next day the 28-year-old killed a bearded seal with a single shot from more than 200 metres with his .222 rifle, rushing to drag it into his boat before it sank.
"The dogs will have something to eat," he said proudly.
Madsen is one of Ittoqqortoormiit's 10 professional hunters. Only those who live completely from the hunt are allowed to shoot polar bears.
"I have been hunting since I was a child. I grew up among hunters -- my father, my grandfather" were also hunters, he told AFP.
But since their time much has changed, most of all the diminishing chance of making a living from it despite being able to use snowmobiles and smart- and satellite phones on the ice.
"Nowadays there is not much to hunt," said Madsen. "With the quotas and everything, it is not working anymore."
Polar bears can only be hunted by Inuits. Their skins go for up to 2,000 euros -- but they can only be sold in Greenland after a European Union embargo in 2008.
Seal skins, on the other hand, sell for 40 euros or less, half of what they were going for before they were hit with a similar embargo in 2009, which was later lifted for those shot by Inuits.
Back home, Madsen's partner Charlotte Pike prepared polar bear soup with tomatoes, carrots, onions and red curry.
"Life is tough given how little we earn from hunting," said the 40-year-old who wants to put up tourists in their home as a way of helping make ends meet.
"You hear everywhere now that we shouldn't eat meat and kill animals... but that is hard for us" in a place where nothing grows.
Madsen never went to school, and he hopes his eight-year-old son Noah will not become a hunter like him. - A boy's dream -
Eleven-year-old Nukappiaaluk Hammeken, however, dreams of joining Ittoqqortoormiit's small elite of professional hunters, even if there is less and less at the top of the food chain to hunt.
His father Peter, 38, runs a snack bar in this village at the end of the world, 800 kilometres from the next settlement in Greenland. Supplies come only twice a year by boat.
During his grand-uncle Hjelmer's youth "almost every man in the village" was a full-time hunter, he said.
"What is going to happen in the next 50 years?" Peter Hammeken asked. "Hunting is fundamental for survival, we need it to feed ourselves and bring in money. It's important for the village and for our future."
Nukappiaaluk will have to wait till his 12th birthday before he is allowed to go on his first hunt. To become a professional he will have to pass a long apprenticeship alongside the elders.
First of all he will have to be able to master a dog team, which is obligatory for professional hunting.
Nukappiaaluk has already been making collars for his nine pups by hand.
Over the next two months, Nukappiaaluk will start working his huskies. First he must learn to train them and so they can pull his sleigh to speeds of up to 30 kilometres per hour. Most of all, he must make sure they follow his verbal commands to the letter -- the slightest error can be fatal in such a hostile environment.
And like countless generations of hunters before him, the shy boy will also have to learn to understand his prey, their behaviours and movement, and how that all changes with the seasons.
Becoming a man and a hunter is inseparable for most Inuit.
"If you do not know your ancestors, you do not know who you are," insisted his older brother Marti, 22.
Once fruitful, Libyan village suffers climate crisis
Agence France-Presse June 17, 2024 Kabaw, like many villages in the Nafusa Mountains, is primarily inhabited by Amazigh people, a non-Arab minority (Mahmud TURKIA/AFP)
In the Libyan village of Kabaw in the Nafusa Mountains, M'hamed Maakaf waters an ailing fig tree as climate change pushes villagers to forsake lands and livestock.
Once flourishing and known for its figs, olives, and almonds, fields around Kabaw, located some 200 kilometres (124 miles) southwest of Tripoli, are now mostly barren and battered by climate change-induced drought.
The area was once "green and prosperous until the beginning of the millennium," Maakaf recalled. "People loved to come here and take walks but today it has become so dry that it's unbearable."
"We no longer see the green meadows we knew in the 1960s and '70s," added the 65-year-old, wearing a traditional white tunic and sirwal trousers.
Kabaw, like many villages in the Nafusa Mountains, is primarily inhabited by Amazigh people, a non-Arab minority.
Pounded by the sun and dry winds, the mountainous area now struggles to bear fruit, facing a lack of rainfall and temperatures high above seasonal norms.
Libya -- where around 95 percent of land is desert -- is one of the world's most water-scarce countries, according to the United Nations.
Its annual precipitation in coastal areas has fallen from 400 millimeters in 2019 to 200 millimeters today, with water demand higher than what is available.
The Nafusa Mountains, sitting at an altitude of almost 1,000 meters (3,280 feet) in western Libya, are home to around half a million people out of Libya's population of seven million.
Driven out by increasing water stress, local villagers and their livestock have been gradually moving out of the Nafusa Mountains and surrounding plains. - 'Exodus' -
Mourad Makhlouf, mayor of Kabaw, says that drought in the last decade has pushed hundreds of families to leave for the capital Tripoli and other coastal cities, where water is easier to access.
"It's not just about water scarcity or crops dying due to drought," said Makhlouf. "There is a demographic and human dimension with the exodus of hundreds of families towards the capital and coastal towns."
Suleiman Mohammed, a local farmer, fears that climate change will soon cause everyone to leave, as "living without water is certain death".
"How can we be patient?" he said. "It has gotten to the point where breeders sell their livestock because keeping them costs twice their value."
Standing by a cluster of dead tree trunks, Maakaf decries the loss of "thousands of olive trees".
"Some were 200 years old and inherited from our grandfathers," he said.
Hoping to alleviate the burden, local authorities began selling subsidised water for 25 Libyan dinars (about $5) per 12,000 litres.
Tanker trucks make the trip between the water stations and the village, travelling up to 50 kilometres and allowing some of those in need to hold on.
"We manage to water our fields two to three times a week but water is expensive," Maakaf said, adding that they also rely on private tanker trucks selling the same amount for up to 160 dinars. - 'Emerging threats' -
The hydrocarbon-rich country hosts the world's largest irrigation project, the Great Man-Made River, its main source of water supply built in the 1980s under the rule of longtime dictator Moamer Kadhafi.
Drawing fossil water from aquifers in the heart of the southern desert, the network of pipes supplies about 60 percent of the national need.
But the supplies remain insufficient amid increasing drought.
According to the World Resources Institute, an environmental research organization, Libya will face "extremely high" water stress by 2050.
The World Bank predicts that by 2030, the Middle East and North Africa region will fall below the "absolute water scarcity" threshold.
"Water scarcity is one of the greatest emerging threats facing Libya," the UN Development Programme said in a study.
"The country needs to ensure equitable access to water for domestic and economic purposes."
"Climate smart agricultural methods should reduce the overuse of water resources and... practices that contribute to soil erosion and desertification, which further impact productive sectors and food security."
Libya signed the 2015 United Nations framework convention on climate change and ratified the Paris Climate Accord in 2021.
Yet the North African country has shown little progress towards the development of disaster risk reduction and climate adaptation strategies, as it continues to grapple with divisions and conflict after the fall of Kadhafi in 2011.
"The drought does not only concern the Nafusa Mountains, but the entire country," said Mayor Makhlouf.
"Libya needs a relief plan, which will not be the solution to everything, but will allow us to adapt."
Saudi Arabia on Monday warned of a temperature spike in Mecca as Muslim pilgrims wrapped up the hajj in searing conditions, with more than a dozen heat-related deaths confirmed.
One of the world's largest religious gatherings unfolded during the oven-like Saudi summer again this year, and authorities recorded more than 2,700 cases of "heat exhaustion" on Sunday alone, the Saudi health ministry said.
On Monday, according to the Saudi weather service, temperatures reached 51.8 degrees Celsius (125 degrees Fahrenheit) at Mecca's Grand Mosque, where pilgrims were circling the Kaaba, the large black cubic structure towards which all Muslims pray.
In nearby Mina, where a spokesman for the national meteorology service said the temperature was 46C, other pilgrims were throwing stones at three concrete walls -- a ritual known as "stoning the devil" that is the last major step of the hajj, while struggling under the burning sun.
Jordan's foreign ministry said on Sunday that 14 Jordanian pilgrims had died "after suffering sun stroke due to the extreme heat wave", and that 17 others were "missing".
Iran reported the deaths of five pilgrims but did not specify the cause, while Senegal's foreign ministry said that three others had died.
An Indonesian health ministry official, currently in Saudi Arabia, said 136 Indonesian pilgrims had died during the hajj including at least three of heat stroke.
"The holy sites today record the highest temperatures since the beginning of hajj... that may reach 49 degrees Celsius, and we advise the guests of God not to be exposed to the sun," the health ministry said, according to state-affiliated Al-Ekhbariya channel.
The Saudi health ministry announced in a statement 2,764 cases of heat exhaustion on Sunday due to sun exposure and "non-compliance with guidelines", which include taking shelter from the sun during the afternoon.
"Prevention is the most important, and the commitment of pilgrims not to go out at peak times except when necessary, or to use an umbrella, would reduce the incidence of heat exhaustion," the statement said.
"Our health guidelines for the coming days are clear and easy: carry an umbrella, drink water regularly, and avoid exposure to the sun." - 'Really hard day' -
The hajj is increasingly affected by climate change, according to a Saudi study published last month that said regional temperatures were rising 0.4C each decade.
Pilgrims in Mina on Monday poured bottles of water over their heads as authorities handed out cold drinks and fast-melting chocolate ice cream.
Azza Hamid Brahim, a 61-year-old pilgrim from Egypt, described seeing motionless bodies on the roadside as she made her way to and from the three concrete walls.
"The ambulances didn't know which way to turn. It looked like Judgement Day, the end of time," she said.
"It was a really hard day. We said to ourselves: 'That's it, we're going to die' because of the heatwave."
Arzu Farhaj of Pakistan said she struggled to find help for a woman who was lying on the roadside.
The woman looked to be without anyone accompanying her, "and the people were passing by," Farhaj said, adding she was unable to get security staff to call an ambulance for her.
The hajj is one of the five pillars of Islam and all Muslims with the means must perform it at least once.
It occurs according to the Islamic lunar calendar, shifting forward each year in the Gregorian calendar. This year's hajj takes place between June 14-19.
Hajj this year drew around 1.8 million pilgrims, 1.6 million of them from abroad, according to Saudi authorities.
Hosting the hajj is a source of prestige for the Saudi royal family, and King Salman's title includes "Custodian of the Two Holy Mosques" in the cities of Mecca and Medina.
Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman, the de facto ruler, said on Sunday that Saudi officials had committed "to provide everything that will serve those who visit the Two Holy Mosques and help them perform their worship in security and reassurance".
The health ministry said it would "closely follow cases of heat exhaustion" and ensure pilgrims "can complete their hajj journey in full health".
The Workers’ Party of Belgium secures strong results in European and national elections, mounting resistance to the far-right’s growth.
Source: PTB-PVDA/X
Two days after the European Parliament elections ended, conservatives are working to secure a new majority, while liberal and green parties are reeling from heavy losses. The right-wing emerged triumphant with significant victories. Major setbacks for parties in power at the national level have shaken governments across the European Union, including Belgium, where Prime Minister Alexander De Croo resigned after Sunday’s results.
The right-wing New Flemish Alliance (N-VA) and Vlaams Belang each received around 14% of the vote, securing three seats in the European Parliament (MEP) each. The liberal Renew party, conservative European People’s Party (EPP), and the social democratic Progressive Alliance of Socialists and Democrats (S&D), each won four MEPs from Belgium. The green parties won two seats, while the Workers’ Party of Belgium (PTB-PVDA) matched this number on its own.
“The PTB-PVDA is one of this election’s biggest winners,” said Raoul Hedebouw, PTB-PVDA president, on election night.
PTB-PVDA’s vision of a different European Union
In addition to Marc Botenga, an MEP since 2019, the PTB-PVDA will now be represented by Rudi Kennes, a trade unionist who used to work in Antwerp’s Opel factory and is a staunch anti-fascist. “We are extremely happy to send a worker to the European Parliament,” Hedebouw commented. “Even more so than in national and regional parliaments, the composition of our population [the working class] is underrepresented in the EP.”
Botenga and Kennes promise to stand together as they bring the voice of Europe’s workers and social struggles to the Brussels bubble. Leading up to the election, Botenga was one of the few MEPs to speak out against the EU’s plans for a new cycle of austerity policies and its support for warmongers.
The party’s European election program was based on similar values: advocating for more investment in public services, including transportation, a millionaire tax at national and EU levels, and new forms of solidarity, such as building a Salk Institute to keep health out of the reach of private companies.
The PTB-PVDA has also been vocal in its support for Palestinian liberation, including it in its program. “We demand the immediate and unconditional recognition of Palestine. We defend the Palestinian people’s right to self-determination,” they stated.
Success a result of commitment to left values
Unlike center-left, green, and progressive parties, the PTB-PVDA has maintained its commitment to key left values, contributing to its strength growing while others fall behind. Hedebouw explained during a press conference with party comrades Sofie Merckx, Peter Mertens, and Jos D’Haese that people vote for the PTB-PVDA because it promises to protect public services and secure better jobs and shows that it is ready to put in the work behind that promise.
“Our result from yesterday did not appear out of nowhere. We began to build this process 15 years ago,” Mertens said. PTB-PVDA’s dedication translated into successes beyond the European election: the European elections in Belgium were organized alongside regional and national elections, and saw a turnout close to 90%—the highest in Europe this time around.
The PTB-PVDA saw a substantial increase in votes across all elections, rising from 566,000 in the last election to 763,000 on Sunday. This result makes the party the fourth-strongest political organization in the country with 15 seats in federal parliament. The party also performed well in the regional polls, significantly increasing its vote share and seats in the Brussels and Flemish parliaments. Wallonia parliament was the exception where it lost two seats.
The PTB-PVDA has reached this point by promoting unity and solidarity, breaking away from mainstream trends of regional division and political fragmentation, Hedebouw said. Following the recent EU election, the party’s platform will be more important than ever, demonstrating that there is more for the European people to hope for than just more austerity and the far-right’s harmful securitization agenda.
