Warming Asian Glaciers: Regional Strategy For Riskscape – Analysis

 July 11, 2024 

By Sanjay Srivastava, Soomi Hong, Shashwat Avi, Naina Tanwar and Akshaya Kumar

Scientific assessments reveal that the Third Pole (TP), encompassing the vast glaciated mountain systems of Asia, is warming at an alarming rate of over 0.3 ºC per decade, surpassing the global average. The TP hosts the largest ice mass outside the polar region, spanning the Tibetan plateau and surrounding ranges: Pamir-Hindu Kush, Hengduan, Tienshan, Qilian, and the Himalayas.

Rapid changes in the cryosphere and melting of glaciers significantly impact high-mountain ecosystems and downstream regions. As the water tower of Asia, the TP is vital for socio-economic stability through its freshwater resources. Warming has caused considerable variations in lakes, inland water bodies and the runoff into the river basins. Additionally, glacial disasters such as ice collapse and glacial lake outburst floods (GLOFs) have become more frequent and dangerous in recent years.

Emerging Third Pole risk hotspots  

While the risks emanating from warming are quite diverse in the different geographies of the TP, glacier melting has been intensifying, with more intensive melting along the Himalayas resulting in emergence of multi-hazard risk hotspots. Recent research reveals that the Hindu Kush Himalayan (HKH) glaciers disappeared 65 per cent faster in 2011–2020 compared with the previous decade.  

Future scenarios project that glaciers in the HKH could lose up to 80 per cent of their current volume by the end of the century, with snow cover projected to fall by up to a quarter under high emissions scenarios. This may drastically reduce freshwater for major Asian rivers including the Yangtze, Indus, Ganges, Amu Darya and Helmand. The decreasing extent of frozen ground (permafrost) will lead to more landslides and problems for infrastructure at high elevation. 

The changes observed in Asian high mountain cryosphere to date signal grave consequences for human life and nature. A recent example is a cloudburst over Lhonak Lake in North Sikkim, which triggered a devastating GLOF in the Teesta river basin. This event resulted in loss of life, the destruction of the 1,200 MW Urja Hydroelectric Chungthang dam and extensive downstream damage, illustrating how disaster risks can compound and cascade in the fragile mountainous context of the Himalayas.

GLOFs pose a threat to mountainous communities across Bhutan, India, Nepal, and Pakistan; from the Himalayas to the Caucasus, Pamir, Hindu Kush-Karakoram and Tien Shan Mountain ranges. While manifestations of warming Asian glaciers are already visible, they are going to have devastating consequences for water and food security, energy sources, ecosystems, and the lives and livelihoods of hundreds of millions across Asia, many of which will be beyond the limits of adaptation.

Science led TP regional co-operation mechanisms for weather and climate services  

Given the transboundary nature of climate threats confronting the Asian glaciers, a stronger regional collaboration and knowledge exchange is required to understand the changing riskscape and develop risk reduction capabilities of the countries in diverse geographies of the TP. The WMO’s Regional Climate Outlook Forums and Regional Climate Centres anchor unique regional and subregional co-operation architecture. Following this modality, the National Meteorological and Hydrological Services of the TP region have establish the Third Pole Regional Climate Centre Network (TPRCC-Network) to facilitate collaboration. To capture the specificities of riskscape across TP geographies, the TPRCC-Network comprises three geographical nodes, with thematic responsibilities for mandatory functions for the entire region. While China leads the northern and eastern nodes, India and Pakistan are leading southern and western nodes of the TP. The Beijing Climate Centre provides overall co-ordination. ESCAP along with ICIMOD, TPE, GCW, GEWEX and MRI are contributing partners of the TPRCC-Network.  

In early June, the TPRCC-Network issued its first ever seasonal outlook for the summer season June to September 2024 for a high mountain TP region. It highlights that surface air temperatures are likely to be above normal over most parts of the TP region, especially over the Karakoram. The southwestern and northwestern parts are likely to experience normal to above normal surface air temperatures. Precipitation is likely to be near or above the climatological normal over most parts of the TP region, however, it is likely to be below normal in the western and southeastern parts of the TP region.  

Impact forecasting with teleconnection approach in the TP  

Weather forecasting relies on the interconnectedness of atmospheric and ocean conditions all the way across the globe, enabling predictions weeks to months in advance. Teleconnections denote significant links between weather phenomena across distant locations, often involving climate patterns spanning thousands of miles. The TP is characterized by hazards of glaciers with their potential exposure, vulnerability and impacts zones which are thousands of kilometers aways across the different nodes. The impact assessment needs to be based on understanding the teleconnections of glaciers and their potential impact zones. With the understanding of these unique teleconnections in the TP, ESCAP is making efforts to translate the seasonal outlook in terms of impact scenarios highlighting potentially at-risk communities, sectors and systems of the TP region. ESCAP has developed automation impact-based forecasting tool to help guide risk informed decision making and fill knowledge gaps.   

Source of Diagram: ESCAP

Support to adaptation at altitude  

Several initiatives aim to accelerate adaptation actions in the mountains, including the multi-country initiative such as the Adaptation at Altitude. These initiatives enhance resilience and adaptive capacity by improving and transferring knowledge through science–policy platforms, informing decision-making in national, regional and global policy processes.  Adaptation and resilience in the Third Pole context hinge on understanding glacier dynamics and their impact on water and ecosystems. The TRCC-Network is an important initiative to support adaptation at altitude.

About the authors: 

• Sanjay Srivastava, Chief, Disaster Risk Reduction Section, ESCAP 
• Soomi Hong, Associate Economic Affairs Officer, Disaster Risk Reduction Section, ESCAP
• Shashwat Avi, Consultant, Disaster Risk Reduction Section, ESCAP
• Naina Tanwar, Consultant, Disaster Risk Reduction Section, ESCAP 
• Akshaya Kumar, Intern, Disaster Risk Reduction Section, ESCAP

 

Turkey’s Emerging And Disruptive Technologies Capacity And NATO: Defense Policy, Prospects, And Limitations – Analysis

File photo of Turkey's unmanned aerial vehicle Bayraktar TB2 (drone). Photo Credit: CeeGee, Wikipedia Commons

 July 11, 2024  

By Hudson Institute

By Can Kasapoğlu

Introduction

The NATO Parliamentary Assembly’s Science and Technology Committee considers emerging and disruptive technologies (EDTs) capable of transforming future military capabilities and warfare through advanced tech applications. Today, official documents indicate that NATO’s EDT-generation efforts focus on nine areas: artificial intelligence (AI), autonomous systems, quantum technologies, biotechnology and human enhancement technologies, space, hypersonic systems, novel materials and manufacturing, energy and propulsion, and next-generation communications networks.

This brief does not cover all of Turkey’s defense-technological capabilities but aims to outline Turkey’s growing focus on EDTs and high-tech advancements. Some signature programs reflect Turkey’s political-military approach and the trends in defense-technological and industrial policies. These programs hint at Ankara’s future military modernization efforts and smart assets. This paper highlights some of Turkey’s critical defense tech programs, focusing on AI, robotics, directed energy weapons, and future soldier/exoskeleton technologies to illustrate the comprehensive and integrated structure of the Turkish EDT ecosystem.

Emerging and disruptive technologies, the future of war, and NATO

Breakthroughs in EDTs are essential for NATO’s future military strength. They will significantly impact defense economics and help shape NATO’s defense-technological and industrial priorities. These efforts involve not just state policies but also public-private partnerships and transatlantic cooperation for sustainable and comprehensive EDT initiatives.

NATO supports these projects through initiatives like the Defence Innovation Accelerator for the North Atlantic and the NATO-Private Sector Dialogues, which explore collaboration between NATO and private companies on technology and defense.

According to Greg Ulmer, currently president of Lockheed Martin Aeronautics, “the decisive edge in today and tomorrow’s missions will be determined by combining technologies to bring forward new capabilities.” This view is shared by US Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin, demonstrating the importance of AI in Washington’s military modernization efforts to deter adversaries in a future confrontation. There seems to be a consensus in the Western policy community that integrating AI and machine learning into modern battle networks, perhaps the most critical contemporary EDT applications in defense, is essential to succeed in tomorrow’s wars. In an era of increasingly digital and transparent warfare, rapid technological adaptation is key to success.

Smart technologies are proliferating fast, and continuous innovation has become a strategic requirement in today’s geopolitical landscape. AI-augmented precision kill chains, hypersonic weapons within mixed-strike packages, and satellite internet-enabled command and control nodes are already changing warfare. The use of commercial satellite imagery and geospatial intelligence has revolutionized open-source intelligence. Facial recognition algorithms are now used in war crime investigations. Robotic warfare, drone-on-drone engagements, and manned-unmanned teaming are all changing the characteristics of war for better or worse.

Defense economics is also changing. Start-ups are becoming increasingly essential actors in military innovation. According to McKinsey & Company, the number of seed funding rounds in defense and dual-use technology (in the United States) almost doubled between 2011 and 2023, hinting at a rapid proliferation of start-ups in the high-tech defense industry. This trend is fostering new collaborations. NATO is leveraging the strengths of the start-up industry with a $1.1 billion Innovation Fund and is reportedly working with several European tech companies on robotic solutions, AI-driven systems, and semiconductors.

Keeping up with innovation is like boarding a fast-moving train, where getting a good seat ensures a strategic advantage over competitors. By investing in holistic, across-the-spectrum EDT-generation efforts, Turkish decision-makers seem to recognize this imperative.

Great expectations: Turkey in the high-technology battlespace

Turkey has faced challenges with industrial advancements, lagging behind in the Industrial Revolution. For instance, the country’s first main battle tank is still not in service. Despite ambitions to operate its fifth-generation combat aircraft, Kaan, within a decade, Turkey has not ever produced third- or fourth-generation tactical military aircraft. This situation is striking given that Turkey excels in producing and exporting state-of-the-art drones but has struggled with other key conventional military assets.

According to Haluk Bayraktar, CEO of the prominent Turkish unmanned aerial systems manufacturer Baykar, missing out on the Industrial Revolution has slowed Turkey’s military modernization. However, it also pushed the country to leverage digital age technologies, building new strengths in intelligent assets and EDTs.

In recent decades, Turkey’s military-industrial sector has focused heavily on innovation and increasing research and development, driven by a desire for self-sufficiency and operational sovereignty. The country’s National Artificial Intelligence Strategy 2021-2025 outlines these ambitions. Forming the central pillar of the government’s AI policy, the document “focuses on generating value on a global scale with an agile and sustainable AI ecosystem.” The strategy also lays out the strategic pillars of the effort, including strengthening international collaboration, encouraging innovation, and increasing the number of experts working on AI.

Similarly, the 2023-2027 Sectoral Strategy Document of the Turkish Presidency of Defense Industries outlines several focus areas for Turkey’s future EDT efforts. These include quantum computing, nanotechnology, and directed energy weapons. The document also highlights the importance of establishing a sustainable, resilient production and testing infrastructure for advanced aerial platforms and increasing the competitiveness of Turkey’s high-tech defense exports.

Selected military programs

Kemankeş loitering munitions baseline

Turkey’s aerial drone warfare capabilities first gained attention with medium-altitude long-endurance (MALE) and high-altitude long-endurance (HALE) platforms such as the Bayraktar TB-2 MALE drone, Akıncı HALE unmanned aerial vehicle (UAV), and TUSAS’ Anka MALE drone baseline. Recently, Turkey’s has advanced further in this field, developing smart aerial assets such as the Kemankeş family.

The Kemankeş, introduced by Baykar in 2023, is a “mini-intelligent cruise missile” that combines features of loitering munitions and cruise missiles. It can carry a 6-kilogram payload, and operates autonomously with an AI-supported autopilot system, one-hour endurance, and a jet engine. The Kemankeş is designed for both striking targets and conducting intelligence, surveillance, target acquisition, and reconnaissance missions. It can be integrated with other aerial drones, making it a versatile tool in modern warfare.

The Kemankeş system offers advanced datalinks and sensors, providing real-time battle updates while targeting adversaries. The upgraded version, Kemankeş-2, boasts a range of over 200 kilometers and an AI-supported autopilot system for precise, autonomous flight. Baykar announced that Kemankeş-2 passed its system verification tests in June 2024.

Kemankeş-2 can operate day and night, in various weather conditions, and in environments where GPS is jammed. Its AI-supported optical guidance system demonstrates Turkey’s rapid advancements in robotic aerial technology.

Naval and ground robotic warfare capabilities 

Russia’s war on Ukraine and the ongoing turmoil in the Red Sea have highlighted the importance of kamikaze naval drones. In the Black Sea, Ukraine has used unmanned surface vehicles (USV) compensate for its lack of conventional naval capabilities. It has successfully eliminated about one-third of the Russian Black Sea Fleet with naval drones and other long-range capabilities such as the Storm Shadow/SCALP-EG air-launched cruise missiles and coastal defense missiles. Similarly, in the Red Sea, Iranian-backed Houthis have employed low-cost kamikaze USVs effective anti-access/area-denial assets, disrupting global maritime trade and limiting Western commercial activities in the region. Some assessments suggest that the United States should consider forming “hedge forces” consisting entirelyof unmanned, low-cost systems to counter initial aggression from a peer opponent, such as in a scenario involving China invading Taiwan. This strategy would minimize harm to military personnel and the loss of valuable equipment.

Turkey has one of the largest USV programs within NATO, with about half a dozen ongoing projects. For example, Marlin, produced by the Turkish defense giant Aselsan and Sefine Shipyards, was the first Turkish naval drone to participate in NATO joint exercises, indicating potential for coalition warfare.

Turkey is also advancing its ground warfare capabilities, leveraging its expertise in robotics. Otokar’s Alpar is a recent example of an unmanned ground vehicle (UGV) that can map the battlefield in 2D and 3D, navigate without a global navigation satellite system, identify friend or foe, and has Advanced Driver Assistance Systems, low thermal and acoustic signature, and autonomous patrol capability. It can also serve as a “mother tank” for smaller UGVs, enhancing mission capability. Alpar has been showcased at major international defense exhibitions, including the Eurosatory 2024 event held in Paris in June.

In addition to developing new robotic systems, Turkey is focusing on innovative concepts like Havelsan’s “digital troops,” which integrate manned and unmanned teams to act as force multipliers on the battlefield. These efforts across multiple domains demonstrate Turkey’s vision of becoming a leading player in a “Mad Max”-like battlespace that combines conventional and smart assets.

Laser precision: Turkey’s drive in directed energy weapon projects 

In Turkey’s expansion of EDTs, directed energy weapons and laser guns are gaining attention. The prominent Turkish arms maker Roketsan has introduced the Alka Directed Energy Weapon System, which has successfully completed live fire tests. The Alka system combines soft kill and hard kill capabilities, featuring both an electromagnetic jamming system and a laser destruction system.

Another key initiative is Aselsan’s Gökberk Mobile Laser Weapon System, first unveiled at the Turkish defense exhibition IDEF in 2023. Gökberk cansearch for, detect, and track UAVs using radar and electro-optical sensors, and then intercept these threats with an effective laser weapon. Additionally, Gökberk has soft kill capabilities, using its Kangal jammer subsystem to render UAVs dysfunctional. According to Aselsan, Gökberk can protect land and naval platforms, critical national infrastructure, and border outposts.

Turkish future soldier concepts 

Turkey is also advancing future soldier technologies as part of its efforts in EDTs. The concept, pioneered by the United Kingdom within NATO, aims to create a modernized force by 2030. Shifting the focus of warfighting from close to deep battles, the British program seeks to transform the army into a resilient and versatile force that can find and attack enemy targets at a greater distance and with higher accuracy.

Ankara’s efforts in this segment are not new. A few years ago, BITES, a leading defense technology and intelligent systems manufacturer owned by Aselsan, developed the Military Tactical Operation Kit ATOK. Equipped with portable and wearable integrated technology, the solution in question was designed to enhance the situational awareness of Turkish troops in a rapidly changing battlefield and maximize personnel security. In line with the future soldier concept, BITES also produced several solutions based on virtual/augmented reality to provide realistic simulation environments.

Aselsan’s “Military Exoskeleton” is another visionary initiative designed to assist troops during demanding battlefield conditions. The exoskeleton provides over 400 watts of leg support. The support is adaptive and AI-supported, meaning that it understands and responds to the needs of the soldier wearing the smart suit. It has an 8-kilometer operation range on a single charge and transfers the soldier’s weight to the ground during long missions, reducing physical strain and improving combat performance.

The way forward: Opportunities and restraints

Keeping up with industrial trends in a competitive environment is challenging, and Turkey’s defense industry faces several obstacles that limit its full potential.

First, the Turkish defense industry is monopolized. There are structural gaps in the collaboration between the public and private sectors. Unlike other tech-driven nations like the United States, Turkey’s defense ecosystem is not very friendly to start-ups, with established companies dominating the field.

Second, Turkey has a shortage of skilled human capital, largely due to issues in higher education. According to 2022 OECD data, Turkey’s Program for International Student Assessment test scores fell below the OECD average in mathematics, science, and reading comprehension. In addition, evidence shows that in Turkey, the proportion of bachelor’s, master’s, and doctoral or equivalent graduates in the field of STEM (science, technology, engineering, and mathematics) is among the lowest among OECD and partner countries.

For sustainable and resilient defense innovation, R&D, business, and a well-educated workforce must go hand in hand. A good example is Baykar, whose chief technology lead was educated at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology, one of the United States’ leading engineering universities.

Third, high-technology goods comprise a relatively low share of Turkish exports. Despite a focus on high-tech products, over half of the gross value generated in the Turkish defense industry comes from low- and medium-technology products. In 2022, Turkey’s high-tech exports were approximately $7.5 billion, and in 2023, this figure exceeded $9 billion.

While Turkey’s strategic plans and defense industrial goals are ambitious, the abovementioned challenges could jeopardize its position as a leading EDT producer in the medium and long term. Addressing these issues is crucial not only for enhancing Turkey’s EDT edge but also for meeting NATO’s strategic needs.

Read on Atlantic Council.

About the author: Can Kasapoğlu is a Senior Fellow (Nonresident) at the Hudson Institute
Source: This article was published by the Hudson Institute

Hudson Institute is a nonpartisan policy research organization dedicated to innovative research and analysis that promotes global security, prosperity, and freedom.

NONPARTISAN IS CODE FOR RIGHT WING

 

'Critical deficiencies' found in Fiji ship grounding investigation

 

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RFNS Puamau was commissioned last month with support from Australia through the Pacific Maritime Security Program (PMSP) and Vuvale Partnership. Photo: Facebook / Fiji News & Sports

"Critical deficiencies" have been found in an investigation into the grounding of one of the Fiji Navy's ships.

RFNS Puamau was commissioned in May with support from Australia through the Pacific Maritime Security Program (PMSP) and Vuvale Partnership.

The vessel was midway through a two-week patrol tasking exercise when it struck the Fulaga Reef on Tuesday, 11 June.

In a statement, the military said it had concluded the investigation conducted by the board of inquiry (BOI) into the grounding.

"The thorough examination of the circumstances surrounding the incident highlighted critical deficiencies in procedures and standards within the Fiji Navy's maritime operations, particularly in navigation practices aboard the ship," the statement said.

The BOI's findings indicated "significant breaches, negligence, [and] non-adherence in the application of professional and accepted navigation practices and mariner skills".

They also found problems with the actions of the commanding officer and his command team - "non-compliance to accepted best bridge management processes... in the application of safety measures under such environmental conditions when in confined and hazardous waters close to Fulaga Island" and "certain best mariner practices and processes associated with use of navigation equipment for situational awareness and decision making was neglected by the commanding officer and his bridge team".

The board has made several recommendations as a result of the findings.

These include holding the commanding officer accountable for the ship's grounding; ensuring comprehensive patrol briefings and navigational planning; providing all seaman officers with navigation books; and reviewing bridge procedures during entry into confined waters.

The Republic of Fiji military forces said it is committed to upholding the highest standards of professionalism and safety within the Fiji Navy.

"By implementing the recommendations put forth by the BOl, we aim to prevent similar incidents and ensure the continued efficiency and effectiveness of our maritime operations."

China rocked by cooking oil contamination scandal

By João da Silva,

BBC  Business reporter

The Chinese government has said it is launching an investigation into allegations that fuel tankers have been used to transport cooking oil after carrying toxic chemicals without being cleaned properly between loads.

The controversy has spread online as social media users express concerns about potential food contamination.

Tankers used for transporting fuel were found to be carrying food products, like cooking oil and syrup, and were not decontaminated correctly, according to state-run Beijing News.

Transporting cooking oil in contaminated fuel trucks was said to have been so widespread it was considered an “open secret” in the industry, according to one driver quoted by the newspaper.

The case is the latest blow to public trust in the Chinese government's ability to enforce food safety standards.

The controversy has been the top trending topic on Chinese social media in recent days.

On Weibo - the country’s equivalent to X, formerly known as Twitter - there have been tens of thousands of posts about the scandal, which have racked up millions of views.

“Food safety is the most important issue,” a comment liked more than 8,000 times said.

Another comment said: “As an ordinary person, surviving in this world itself is an amazing thing already.”

Many compared it to the 2008 Sanlu milk scandal, in which some 300,000 children became sick and at least six died after drinking powdered milk contaminated with high levels of the industrial chemical melamine.

“This is much worse than the Sanlu scandal, it can’t be settled with just [a] statement,” a user commented.

In China, tankers are not limited to any particular type of goods so can, in theory, carry food products straight after transporting coal-based oils.

The claims involve several major Chinese companies including a subsidiary of state-owned Sinograin and the Hopefull Grain and Oil Group.

Sinograin has said it is investigating whether food safety regulations were being followed correctly.

The company also said it will immediately suspend the use of any trucks that are found to have fallen foul of the the rules.

A Hopefull Grain representative told government-controlled newspaper Global Times that it was conducting a "thorough self-inspection".

The Chinese government has said food safety officials will carry out the investigation into the allegations.

They have promised to punish any companies and individuals involved in wrongdoing.

They have also vowed to immediately publish the findings of their investigation.

"Illegal enterprises and relevant responsible persons will be severely punished in accordance with the law and will not be tolerated," state broadcaster CCTV said.

At the local level, both the Hebei and Tianjin provincial governments have said they are also looking into the matter.

Additional reporting by Fan Wang