Russia is adapting in Ukraine and also learning from NATO tactics — experts

Latvia's top diplomat Baiba Braze and Dara Massico, a senior fellow at Carnegie Endowment for Peace, say Moscow is learning from Ukraine war and NATO's capabilities and may use it to strengthen its alliances with China, Iran, and North Korea.

NOURELDEIN GHANEM



AFP

NATO heads of state meet during the NATO 75th anniversary summit at the Walter E. Washington Convention Center in Washington, DC, on July 10, 2024. / Photo: AFP

Washington DC — Latvian Foreign Minister Baiba Braze has stated that Russia is reconstituting its forces by redirecting every element in the country toward its war in Ukraine, adding that Russia has been "learning and integrating" its lessons from the conflict.

"There is not one element, one instrument of power in Russia that would not be oriented towards the war. So Russia's policy is war. And when we look at the military instrument of power, economics, politics, religion, education, system, anything, it's all about war," Braze said on Wednesday during the c in the US capital.

On the sidelines of the NATO Summit in Washington DC, the Alliance's leaders as well as international security experts were speaking at the Forum.

While emphasising that there is no direct military threat to NATO members in the short term, Braze noted, "That doesn't mean that Russia is not learning."

"Russia is learning, and it is integrating its lessons in Ukraine. It is changing its ambition. It is returning to a different command structure, at least on the paper. Show you, show us doctrine," she added.

Braze added, "Our problem is not to support Ukraine, our problem is Russia."

Is Russia reconstituting its forces?

Dara Massico, Senior Fellow at the Russia and Eurasia Program of the Carnegie Endowment for Peace, explained that while Ukraine and NATO currently hold a strategic advantage, this edge is "not guaranteed."

She noted that Russia has begun to adapt and learn from its unexpected mistakes after the initial six months of the war.

"Ukraine and NATO have the advantage in terms of understanding intentions and how things are being played out on the battlefield. That advantage, just like any intelligence, is not guaranteed," Massico said.

"We have seen them [Russia] make a lot of unexpected mistakes in the first six months of the war, and then that learning phase kicked in."

Massico highlighted three key reasons for Russia's reconstitution of its forces: restoring a sufficient level of combat capability, increasing proficiency and knowledge about their enemies' capabilities, and crucially, not wanting to revert to their pre-war state.

"We should not assume that they’re going to go back to what they were before the war. It's going to be different. They have changed. Ukraine has changed. We have all changed in various ways," she added.

She also warned that Russia might leverage the insights gained about NATO's capabilities and weaponry to strengthen its alliances with countries like China, Iran, and North Korea.

"Russia's allies and partners are learning from them, and this is now a currency that Russia has to give to Iran, China, North Korea, that learning of our equipment," Massico said.

The expert remarks came as NATO leaders, at their summit in Washington, pledged at least $43 billion in military aid to Ukraine "within the next year" to bolster its fight against Russia.

"Through proportional contributions, Allies intend to provide a minimum baseline funding of 40 billion euros [$43 billion] within the next year, and to provide sustainable levels of security assistance for Ukraine to prevail," a declaration from the summit stated.

SOURCE: TRT WORLD

Noureldein Ghanem is an Assistant Producer at TRT World

Prospects Dimming For Democracy In The Sahel – Analysis

UN mission in Mali. Photo Credit: MINUSMA/Harandane Dicko

 July 11, 2024  

By Published by the Foreign Policy Research Institute

By Charles A. Ray

(FPRI) — The COVID-19 pandemic, in addition to the human toll and negative economic impact in sub-Saharan Africa, also contributed to a decline in democracy. According to a May 26, 2021, article from the Council on Foreign Relations, more Africans were living under fully or partially authoritarian states than at most points in the previous two decades.

Citizen discontent with leaders’ attempts to remain in power through circumvention of the electoral process has led to political instability, demonstrations, and violence even in relatively democratic countries like Kenya and South Africa. While the average level of democracy across the continent remains relatively stable in 2024, the continual incidents of military takeovers and conflicts in Ethiopia, Sudan, and Cameroon, pose challenges to consolidating democracy. Despite continuing progress in countries like Gambia and Zambia, and with nine African countries in the top fifty in the world in levels of democratic participation, the continental averages in representation and rule of law have declined over the past five years.

The Sahel: A Belt of Instability

The region of sub-Saharan Africa demonstrating the most severe decline in democratic governance has been the Sahel, the semi-arid belt connecting North Africa across the Sahara Desert with the tropical savannahs to the south.

Since 2020, there have been four coup d’etats and three attempted coups in West Africa and the Sahel. The four military takeovers in Guinea, Burkina Faso, Mali, and Niger, were ostensibly because of economic stagnation and continuing insecurity and were initially received positively by the civilian populations. That support seems to continue despite the juntas not delivering on promises to improve security. The median age of populations in the Sahel ranges from fourteen to twenty-six, and one would think that such a youthful population would be a seed-bed for popular uprising as it has been in other regions of the world, but this has not happened. The security situation in the countries of the Sahel has worsened, and despite being one of the world’s richest regions in terms of natural resources, in April 2023, the United Nations estimated that food insecurity and malnutrition were on track to reach a ten-year high. Some 45,000 people were at risk of experiencing “catastrophic levels of hunger.” Up to 80 percent of the people of the Sahel live on less than $2 a day, with poverty more widespread than in most other parts of Africa.

One-by-One, They All Fall Down

While there has been a distinct shift to the right and autocracy in a number of regions, the Sahel leads the way in unconstitutional and attempted takeovers since 2020. Between 2020 and 2023, there were eight combined successful and attempted coups in the Sahel in six countries, from Guinea on the Atlantic to Sudan on the Red Sea.

Mali 

Of the five coups that Mali has suffered since gaining independence in 1960, two of them were in 2020 and 2021. The country has faced an insurgency by the Tuareg (a minority ethnic group), jihadists, and criminal gangs since 2012, with limited success despite years of US, French, and other international support to strengthen Mali’s national army. In 2020, a colonel who had been trained by US, French, and German forces overthrew the elected president. This led to France withdrawing its forces from Mali and the junta subsequently toppling its own appointed civilian president, then turning to Russia’s Wagner Group for security support. This move has not lessened the insurgency and has led to massive human rights abuses against the civilian population.

Chad

Military officers seized power in Chad in 2021 after the death of President Idriss Deby, who had taken over in a coup in 1990. Deby had ruled for thirty years as a hardnosed autocrat but enjoyed US and western support because he’d aligned himself with international counterterrorism efforts. The leader of the coup was Deby’s son, Lieutenant General Mahamat Deby. Although the junta allowed national dialogue and a transition to democracy, there are signs that it is repressing opposition and taking steps to improve relations with Russia and eject US military trainers from the country, in a move to retain power indefinitely. Insurgencies continue in the north and south of the country.

Guinea

A US and French trained officer led a coup in 2021, overthrowing the corrupt eleven-year rule of President Alpha Conde, who had come to power under questionable circumstances after the country had suffered decades of autocratic rule with a promise to restore democracy. However, once in power, he proceeded to undermine it. Conde’s decision to change the constitution to allow him to run for a third term in office was very unpopular and the main reason stated by the junta for the takeover.

Burkina Faso

Between January and September 2022, Burkina Faso suffered two military takeovers. On January 24, 2022, soldiers ousted President Roch Marc Christian Kabore, replacing him with Lieutenant Colonel Paul-Henri Sandaogo Damiba. Then, on September 30, Damiba was removed from his post and replaced by Captain Ibrahim Traore. Demonstrators supporting Traore attacked symbols of French presence in the country. After Traore’s installation as “transitional” president, he ordered the removal of French troops and approached Russia and Mali for security support. In September 2023, the elections intended to restore democracy to the country, which had been scheduled for July 2024, were deemed “not a priority” and indefinitely postponed. Increased violence in the capital Ouagadougou have fueled rumors that the country might be edging close another coup.

Niger 

Niger had five coups after independence in 1960 but had experienced a decade of relatively stable progress toward democracy until July 2023, when a group of soldiers overthrew democratically elected President Mohamed Bazourn, who had held office since 2021. The coup leaders’ excuse was the continuous deterioration of the security situation. The army had received training from the United States and France and was home to a US drone base and 1,100 American military troops engaged in counterterrorism operations. Subsequently, the junta ended its military agreement with the United States, demanded withdrawal of American troops, and invited Russian military “advisers” into the country.

Sudan 

After independence in 1955, Sudan suffered six coups and fifty-three years of military rule. Popular protests in 2019 motivated army officers to overthrow the autocratic ruler General Omar al-Bashir and work with civilian activists to transition to democracy. That transition was junked in 2021 as the coup leaders began fighting over who would control the country. The conflict between General Abdel-Fattah Burhan, commander of the Sudanese military, and General Mohammed Hamdan Dagalo, commander of the paramilitary Rapid Support Forces, has cost the lives of many civilian noncombatants, created a humanitarian crisis, and forced many nations, including the United States, to evacuate their embassies.

Playing the Long Game

With Russia moving into the region to fill the void left by the departure of US and French military forces, the short- and medium-term prospects for democratization of the Sahel seems exceedingly dim.

According to a June 6, 2023, Rand Corporation article, the Sahel is now the epicenter of global terrorism, accounting for 43 percent of deaths attributed to global terrorism in 2022. Burkina Faso and Mali accounted for 73 percent of terrorism-related deaths in the Sahel in 2022 and 52 percent of all such deaths in sub-Saharan Africa. With both terrorism and coups on the rise, the United States needs to take a new look at its policy towards the Sahel. Washington must move away from the security-first approach of providing weapons and tactical training, which has not worked, to a policy of institution building with a focus on civilian control and responsible use of military forces.

Such a policy should be uniformly implemented across the entire region, without exception, with human rights and laws of warfare violators held accountable for their actions. Rather than defaulting to a tactical response to extremist movements, the primary focus should be on identifying and addressing the root causes of such extremists. While it will be difficult in the short-term future to work with Sahelian militaries that have engaged in unconstitutional power grabs, when the United States can re-engage, the emphasis should be on good defense governance, development of proper doctrine, and establishment of effective civil-military relations, with a view to building effective, professional military forces that serve the nation rather than specific interest groups or those who seek power.

The American response to coups of any kind should be consistent and definite. The US government should condemn all takeovers and immediately suspend all military assistance and apply visa restrictions on coup leaders regardless of the motivation for the coup or the level of prior cooperation in US counterterrorism operations.

This fundamental shift in Washington thinking will not be easy to implement and will require a long-term focus rather than the short-term, quick results focus that unfortunately characterizes much of current US strategy. The United States should also be willing to stay for the long haul and not be turned off by lack of short-term success of its strategy. While it must be aware of other external players in this long game, some who will oppose the States and others who are ostensibly on the government’s side, it should be wary of over-estimating competitors or outsourcing to putative friends. The US approach should be based on what’s in the best interests of the country first, and the people of the specific African country secondly. It must be prepared to present itself as a reliable and consistent partner in the long-term economic and political development of the Sahel and be a desirable alternative to the current cast of characters aiding the region.

The long-term objective should be the development of professional, democratic, stable partners in the interest of peace and prosperity for everyone involved.

• About the author: Charles A. Ray, a member of the Board of Trustees and Chair of the Africa Program at the Foreign Policy Research Institute, served as US Ambassador to the Kingdom of Cambodia and the Republic of Zimbabwe.
• Source: This article was published by FPRI

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Published by the Foreign Policy Research Institute

Founded in 1955, FPRI (http://www.fpri.org/) is a 501(c)(3) non-profit organization devoted to bringing the insights of scholarship to bear on the development of policies that advance U.S. national interests and seeks to add perspective to events by fitting them into the larger historical and cultural context of international politics.

AUSTRALIA

Fire crews to remain at the site of a huge factory fire in Melbourne's west

ADC AUS
Posted 21h ago

The chemical factory was gutted by the blaze.

Firefighters remain at the site of a large factory fire in Derrimut, in Melbourne's west, but the blaze is under control.

Fire Rescue Victoria said water containing unknown chemicals from the fire site had entered local waterways.

What's next?

Environmental groups have warned of potential health implications related to industrial fires in Melbourne's western suburbs.


Victoria's environmental watchdog has revealed it carried out multiple inspections and issued two notices to the operators of a factory in Melbourne's west that was the site of a major fire yesterday.

More than 180 firefighters responded to the fire in Derrimut, which Fire Rescue Victoria (FRV) said was one of the state's biggest fires in recent years.

A large chemical explosion about 11am on Wednesday sparked the blaze, which was eventually brought under control by about 3:30pm.
Toxic smoke from the fire shrouded nearby suburbs, prompting emergency warnings to residents.(ABC News: Rachel Clayton)

Dozens of firefighters are still at the scene to fully extinguish the fire, which sent thick smoke billowing over nearby suburbs.

People have been warned to avoid coming into contact with waters downstream of the fire until further notice, particularly in areas with unusual odours or where water is discoloured.

Melbourne Water is managing a significant volume of contaminated run-off that has entered Kayes Drain, to the west of the factory, along with some run-off to Cherrys Main Drain to the east.

The ABC understands the fire is at the site of the ACB Group factory, where a worker died in a chemical explosion last year.

The company declined to comment when contacted by the ABC.

WorkSafe's investigation into that death is ongoing, but investigators have visited 24 times since, issuing seven compliance notices.

As for the latest incident, a spokesperson said the workplace health and safety regulator "remains on scene providing technical support and will determine further action at the appropriate time"

.
Fire Rescue Victoria said water from the fire site had entered local waterways.(ABC News)

The Environment Protection Authority (EPA) said it had inspected the site nine times since last year's chemical explosion and had issued several notices to the factory operators.

Steve Lansdell from the EPA said it appeared the factory had complied with those notices, but a thorough investigation would be carried out, and the community kept informed.

"We'll be working really closely with WorkSafe and other investigators given there were still investigations going into the previous incident," he told ABC Radio Melbourne.

"Make no mistake, no stone will be left unturned in terms of investigations for us and other regulators."

The intense blaze gutted the chemical factory at Derrimut.(ABC News)

FRV Deputy Commissioner Joshua Fischer said fire crews made good progress overnight but investigators had not yet determined the cause of the blaze.

"It’s obviously still an active fire area, there’s lots of contaminants, there’s contaminated water runoff that we need to manage so at this time the investigation is ongoing," he said

.
FRV Deputy Commissioner Joshua Fischer said more than 150 firefighters battled the Derrimut blaze.(ABC News)

He said the fire was "challenging and complex" for fire crews.

"Extreme flame heights, explosions occurring, debris falling onto the fire impact area. We’ve still got fire appliances that we can’t get back to because they’re in the unsafe area."
Chemicals from fire zone contaminating nearby waterways

In the wake of the blaze, residents near the factory were told to stay indoors to protect themselves from the smoke

.
A sign at Laverton Creek warns of impacted water quality.(ABC News: Rachel Clayton)

People have been warned not to come into contact with water at Cherry Creek, Anderson's Swamp and Kayes Drain as runoff from the factory fire site has entered waterways.

The EPA said Melbourne Water had been working around-the-clock to pump wastewater and dispose of it offsite for treatment, along with blocking stormwater drains with sandbags and placing booms to limit firewater run-off entering nearby waterways.

FRV said around three million litres of water and 40,000 litres of foam were used to battle the blaze

.
The factory in Derrimut where a major blaze broke out yesterday contained barrels of chemicals.(Supplied: EPA)

Chief Environmental Scientist with the Environmental Protection Agency, Jen Martin, said managing the water runoff from the fire site was proving to be challenging.

EPA officers are testing chemical levels at Laverton Creek and surrounding areas.(ABC News: Rachel Taylor)

"Because of the sheer volume of the water and the complexity of the drain network, some of that fire water has migrated downstream and we’re expecting to see that water move through waterways," she said.

"Some of these chemicals will be diluted as they move downstream but we know that there are impacts that include highly odorous water that has migrated from this site."

The EPA said drinking water did not appear to have been contaminated by runoff.

The major factory fire is continuing to burn in Melbourne's west.

Dr Martin said smoke from the fire rose rapidly but largely dissipated.

"In terms of air quality in the broader Melbourne region, it doesn’t have a major impact so we are relatively hopeful that there is minimal impact to the broader community," he said.

Emergency services are monitoring the air quality near the factory to determine when people can return to nearby businesses.

FRV said the factory contained a range of chemicals, including kerosene, methylated spirits and ethanol

.
Investigations are continuing into the cause of Wednesday's blaze, as well as a separate fire at the factory last year.(ABC News)

Former Greens MP and spokesperson for the Anti-Toxic Waste Alliance, Colleen Hartland, said the fire could have potential health implications for nearby residents.

"Local residents, local friends groups have worked so hard to improve these sites and yet again, because industry couldn't manage themselves, they're going to be profoundly affected," she said.

"It's going to take a while to actually know what the long-term effects are, but I think one of the problems with the health of people in the western suburbs is because we have repeated incidents."

AUSTRALIA

Worrying signs emerge from new economic mobility report

by Clint Jasper

ABC AUS
Posted Yesterday

Danielle Wood says Australia's overall economic mobility ranks among the best in the world.(AAP: Dean Lewins)

In short:

Australia's rates of economic mobility rank among the best in the world.

Rising poverty, the gender pay gap and economic conditions faced by those born after 1990 could stymy economic mobility.
What's next?

More data is needed to determine whether those born after 1990 will end up worse off than their parents over their lifetime.

Nearly two-thirds of Australians born between 1972-82 earn more money than their parents did at a similar age, but data shows those born after 1990 are experiencing slower income growth, according the Productivity Commission.

In its latest report into economic mobility in Australia, the Productivity Commission (PC) found Australia's overall levels of economic mobility were high by global standards.

"For most Australians, the amount your parents earned when you were young is not a life sentence," said chair Danielle Wood.

The report, Fairly equal? Economic mobility in Australia, draws on multiple data sets including the Australian Bureau of Statistics and the Household, Income and Labour Dynamics in Australia (HILDA) survey to conclude economic mobility ranks just below Sweden and far above the United States for the majority of the population.

Generational concerns

Those born after 1990 are not on the same income trajectory as the people born in prior years.

A previous PC report found that average disposable incomes grew strongly for all age groups between 2001 and 2008, but then declined only for young Australians (15-34) between 2008 and 2018.

"Weak income growth for people born in the 1990s reflects the poor economic outcomes experienced by younger people following the global financial crisis (GFC)," the report said.

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"Younger Australians experienced stagnant wages and were more likely to obtain jobs with lower educational requirements and earnings potential relative to comparably-skilled younger people in 2001," the report said.

"Which can have long-term negative effects on their wages and occupational choices."

While the PC report stresses more years of data are needed to make better conclusions about lifetime income mobility, it said "the lack of income growth for those born in the 1990s indicates the trend that each generation earned more than the previous may have stalled".

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Growing poverty

There are some "worrying signs" among the findings.

Poverty levels are the highest they've been since 2001, and have been on a steady rise over that time.

"People most at risk of poverty include those not in paid employment, who come from a migrant background and do not speak English at home, over the age of 65, who rent housing, and in a single person or single parent household," the report said.

It's estimates around 14 per cent of Australians are living in poverty.

"Australians living in poverty (incomes below 50 per cent of the median) face some of the highest barriers to economic mobility," the report said.

"One in 10 Australians experience persistent poverty, and where people live matters a great deal to their ability to escape poverty."

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Education levels were found to be highly correlated with economic mobility.

Those who completed a Bachelor's degree earned 23 per cent more than someone with a year 12 qualification over their lifetimes.

"Adverse life events such as job loss, health problems and relationship breakdown can reduce income, and do not impact everyone equally," the report said.

"Job loss in particular has a persistent negative impact on income, and is more likely to be experienced by people who start on low incomes."

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Income and wealth

Despite the majority of the population experiencing at least some degree of income mobility, 'wealth' mobility was far stickier.

Measured as the value of accumulated assets, wealth builds over the course of an individual's lifetime through super annulation, income savings, investments and rising real estate values.

Those with the most and least wealth record the lowest levels of wealth mobility.

"Only one in five people move from the bottom two deciles into the top half of the distribution over the period 2002 to 2022, and similarly, only one in five fall out of the top half of the distribution," the report said.

Gender gap

Despite the positive overall findings, the report finds that within the 1972-82 cohort, just over half of women earned more than their parents did, compared with 77 per cent of men.

Most men (64 per cent) earn higher incomes than their fathers, and most women (68 per cent) earn higher incomes than their mothers," the report said.

"But there is a substantial difference when comparing children's incomes with their parents of the opposite gender."

 

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While 86 per cent of men earn more than their mothers, only 37 per cent of women earn more than their fathers.

The report also found relationship separation was more financially harmful for women than men.

"Following separation from a long-term partner, women experience a significant decrease in equivalised disposable income, while men's equivalised income increases."

Posted Yesterday at 12:48pm, updated 19h ago

SPACE

Astronauts stuck in space 'confident' Boeing's Starliner capsule will bring them home

By Nelli Saarinen with wires

Suni Williams and Butch Wilmore have been waiting at the International Space Station for over a month.


In short:

Two US astronauts who have been stuck on the International Space Station for weeks say they are confident the Starliner capsule that flew them up can bring them down safely.

Their return has been repeatedly pushed back as engineering teams on Earth continue to run tests to understand malfunctions that came to light on the flight up.
What's next?

The earliest the astronauts might return is the end of July, NASA said, with mid-August being another deadline due to a SpaceX delivery of a fresh crew to the station.


Two US astronauts who should have returned to Earth weeks ago say they are confident that the problem-plagued Boeing Starliner spacecraft they rode up on can bring them back safely, despite significant uncertainties remaining.

"I have a real good feeling in my heart that this spacecraft will bring us home, no problem," NASA astronaut Sunita "Suni" Williams said on Wednesday during the test crew's first news conference since docking to the International Space Station (ISS) more than a month ago.

Captain Williams and mission commander Barry "Butch" Wilmore blasted off on June 5 on what was Starliner's first crewed mission, intended as the final demonstration for Boeing to obtain routine flight certification from NASA.

The crew's stay was meant to last roughly a week, but the return was pushed back because of thruster malfunctions and helium leaks that came to light during the journey.

Boeing Starliner launched its first crewed flight in June.

Engineering teams back on Earth need to run tests to better understand the issues and potentially modify how Starliner will fly down.

No return date has been set so far with the end of July the earliest option, NASA officials said.

'Failure is not an option'

In the pair's first news conference from orbit, Commander Wilmore said he remained "absolutely confident" in the Starliner spaceship and team.

"That mantra you've heard, 'failure is not an option,' that's why we are staying here now," he said.

"We trust that the tests that we're doing are the ones we need to do to get the right answers, to give us the data that we need to come back."
The astronauts remain confident that they will return to Earth aboard Starliner.(AP Photo: NASA)

The pair said they're not complaining about getting extra time in orbit, and are enjoying helping the station crew.

Both have previously spent stints at the orbiting lab, which is also home to a seven-member resident crew.
Return postponed again

NASA's commercial crew program director Steve Stich said the earliest the Starliner astronauts might return is the end of July.

The goal is to get them back before Boeing's competitor SpaceX delivers a fresh crew in mid-August, but that could change, he noted.

Boeing's Starliner capsule first crewed space flight faces more delays as it fights to compete with SpaceX


Boeing badly needs a space win for its Starliner venture, a years-delayed program with more than $US1 billion in cost overruns.

The return, which was originally scheduled for June 14, has already been postponed twice.

In 2014, SpaceX and Boeing were awarded multi-billion-dollar contracts by NASA to develop crewed spaceships to shuttle crew to and from the space station.

SpaceX's first taxi flight with astronauts was in 2020 and it has flown dozens of people on its Crew Dragon capsule since.

Boeing's first crew flight, on the other hand, was repeatedly delayed because of software and other issues.

Mr Stich insisted that NASA wasn't considering bringing their pilots back on the SpaceX capsule, in what would amount to a major humiliation for Boeing.


"The prime option today is to return Butch and Suni on Starliner," Mr Stich said.

However, he conceded that a return flight on a SpaceX spaceship can't be ruled out.

Butch Wilmore and Suni Williams are both veteran astronauts who have spent time at the International Space Station before.(AP Photo: Chris O'Meara)

Boeing executive Mark Nappi stressed that in an emergency, Starliner and its crew could return right now.

While the company does not believe the thrusters are damaged, Mr Nappi said they want to "fill in the blanks and run this test to assure ourselves of that".
Plagued program adds to Boeing's problems

Boeing's Starliner program has a long history of issues, including software glitches, design problems and subcontractor disputes.

Its first crewed launch was delayed for two years before Captain Williams and Commander Wilmore finally lifted off into space.

Boeing 737 MAX drops to 122 metres above ocean

The US National Transportation Safety Board is also investigating why another Boeing 737 MAX 8 "rolled" during a flight last month.

At one point, technical difficulties caused a postponement just 24 hours before launch.

In 2019, the first attempt to send an uncrewed Starliner to the ISS failed due to software and engineering glitches, before a successful second attempt in 2022.

The company has already spent $US1.5 billion ($2.2 billion) in cost overruns, on top of its US$4.5 billion NASA development contract.

Starliner's problems add to Boeing's ongoing safety and public relations struggles on its commercial aircraft side.

The aerospace giant recently agreed to plead guilty to a criminal fraud conspiracy charge in an investigation linked to two fatal crashes of its 737 MAX commercial aircraft. The company will pay a criminal fine of $US243.6 million.

Several other incidents involving Boeing's planes, including an unused emergency exit door blowing off mid-flight, have taken their toll on the company's reputation.

ABC/wires

South Korea to deploy ’StarWars’ laser weapons targeting North Korean drones

REUTERS
July 11, 2024

Model military vehicles are displayed at a booth for Hanwha Aerospace during the 2023 Seoul International Aerospace and Defense Exhibition (ADEX) in Seongnam, South Korea, October 16, 2023. (REUTERS)

SEOUL--South Korea will deploy laser weapons to shoot down North Korean drones this year, becoming the world’s first country to deploy and operate such weapons in the military, the country’s arms procurement agency said on Thursday.

South Korea has called its laser program the “StarWars project.”

The drone-zapping laser weapons the South Korean military has developed with Hanwha Aerospace are effective and cheap, with 2,000 won ($1.45) per shot, but quiet and invisible, the Defense Acquisition Program Administration (DAPA) said in a statement.

“Our country is becoming the first country in the world to deploy and operate laser weapons, and our military’s response capabilities on North Korea’s drone provocation will be further strengthened,” DAPA said, calling those weapons as a game changer in the future battlefield.

The laser weapons shoot down flying drones by burning down engines or other electric equipment in drones with beams of light for 10 to 20 seconds, a DAPA spokesperson explained at a briefing.

Five North Korean drones crossed into South Korea, which is technically still at war with Pyongyang, in December, prompting Seoul to scramble fighter jets and attack helicopters, and try to shoot them down, in the first such intrusion since 2017.

Fighting in the 1950-1953 Korean War ended with an armistice, not a peace treaty, and a Demilitarized Zone (DMZ) between the two Koreas.

North and South Korea have both violated the armistice that governs their shared border by sending drones into each other’s airspace, the United States has said.

Countries including South Korea, China and the United Kingdom are racing to develop and deploy laser weapons, also known as directed energy weapons, according to a U.S. nonprofit think tank RAND Corporation.

There’s substantial interest in those weapons to help counter the proliferation of unmanned systems, as well as targeting missiles in flight or satellites in orbit, the think tank has said.

Why it seems east Germany is everywhere

STEFANIE BÖRNER 

11th July 2024

SOCIAL EUROPE


A transnational perspective is needed to curb nationalistic populism and bring Europeans closer.

A transnational message against the far right outside the Bundestag earlier this year (Sybille Reuter / shutterstock.com)

After the elections to the European Parliament and the recent elections in France—and two months before regional elections in three eastern-German states particularly prone to the right-wing Alternative für Deutschland (AfD)—agitation is great. Shall we soon be asking whether Germany’s far right is on the brink of power, having worried for years about France before on Sunday the brakes were applied by a new ‘popular front’?

Despite the country-specific differences, the French and German regions in which the right-wing parties celebrate their biggest electoral successes have a lot in common. Their inhabitants seem closer to one another than to their German and French co-citizens, by whom they often feel misunderstood. Since they no longer feel represented by their national governments, they do not shy away from voting for a far-right party—a party that in their eyes deserves a chance because things anyway can’t get any worse.

In these regions, the grand Volksparteien (people’s parties) that used to represent the working class living there have experienced an unparalleled decline. This void has been readily and steadily filled by Marine Le Pen’s Rassemblement National (RN) and the German AfD—in some parts the established parties do not even put up election posters any more.

In prototypical towns such as Bruay-la-Buissiére in the north of France (Pas-de-Calais) and Bautzen in the east of Germany (Sachsen), populations have fallen by around a third over past decades. In the European elections, in Bautzen the AfD achieved one of the highest results ever in Germany, with a vote share of 39 per cent, while in Bruay-la-Buissiére the RN secured a record share in France of 63 per cent. The two xenophobic parties are most successful precisely where people are least confronted with the scapegoated migrants—but where structural change, with its inhumane costs, has hit with some force. Unfolding over decades, this represents a cultural shift, not a superficially conceived ‘protest vote’.

Reference points

If the anomie of east Germany now seems to be everywhere, it is also because of experiences, and historical disappointments, shared by other states in central and eastern Europe which underwent system change (albeit each along its own path) after the fall of the Berlin wall. Yet these common reference points have not played a role in inner-German public discourses and political debates, for instance when it comes to persistent wage differences between east and west.

That political authorities in Germany have failed to include not only east-German but also eastern-European perspectives for a long time has many sources. Among others, the state- and identity-building projects of the transformation countries tended to draw boundaries within the east (and west) rather than emphasise similarities. As a consequence, lots of people in the east-German Länder learned to compare with their west-German fellow citizens—against whom they could only lose—although in many respects east Germans born or raised in the postwar decades have much more in common with their fellow EU citizens from post-Soviet countries.

Within the European Union, wage differences among members states kept decreasing until recently, as part of the catch-up process of the member states joining since 2004. Moreover, there has been a pronounced difference in the transformation paths between the former Deutsche Demokratische Republik (DDR) and other post-Soviet states. In Poland in 2022, employees earned an average of €5 per hour, while the average in today’s east Germany was €19.08 (against €23.22 in the west).

While acknowledging the structural differences between east- and west-German regions, in that perspective the east no longer appears as the eternal second. Relativising, and properly addressing, the inner-German differences—without of course neglecting the failures in the internal integration process—could also grant the historically rooted identities more room. This could open up an understanding that people socialised in the old DDR are not incapable of acting as democrats, but may be reluctant to replace the old orthodoxies and missing freedoms with new neoliberal doctrines and heteronomies.

Freedom of movement

These transnational resonances among structural and political transformations in Europe have not changed the mindsets of those politicians who still frame their ideas within the national container. Conversely, politicians at EU level are inadequately aware of the risk that European imbalances have for the future of the European project.

Freedom of movement lies at the heart of European economic and social integration and provides positive outcomes for most citizens, businesses and the union as a whole. But that comes at a high price for member states with high net emigration, such as Bulgaria, Romania and Lithuania.

Since 2004, millions have emigrated from these newer EU members: fully one-fifth of Romania’s working-age population lives in other member states. On top are those who work abroad as posted or seasonal workers without shifting their permanent residence, but nevertheless tearing a hole in their social relationships, whether as partners, parents, colleagues, neighbours or team members.

Many professionals who have completed an expensive education in their home countries’ educational systems now practise (or in the worst case do a job beneath their qualifications) abroad. This brain drain has caused a ‘demographic panic’ in central- and eastern-European countries, fostering resentments boosting the illiberal political forces. What from an elite level may appear as EU-wide social integration is felt as painful disintegration in the countries affected.

Climate of resentment

As long as EU integration continues to produce such harmful imbalances, the impression will solidify of a zero-sum game—or, even worse, a lose-lose situation. Meanwhile, increasing contestation of liberal values among political elites conjures up a world of welfare ‘scroungers’, ‘criminal’ migrants and ‘selfish’ cosmopolitans. This contributes to a social climate of resentment, envy and finger-pointing, encouraging those who have no scruple about voting for illiberal parties because they believe they have nothing further to lose—either because they do not belong to the groups that stand to be on the losing side of illiberal anti-human policies or because they feel that they have lost too much in the past.

Without addressing these domestic and cross-country imbalances, neither the EU nor highly divided countries, such as France or Germany, will be able to grow together. Yet by adopting a broader, transnational perspective political actors can address peoples’ needs and concerns without giving up on liberal and social values.



Stefanie Börner
Stefanie Börner is an assistant professor at the Department of Sociology, University of Magdeburg. Her areas of interest include European integration, social and employment policies and social theory.