Monday, July 15, 2024


UK

Historians reveal which past Labour government this one resembles


A survey has revealed which previous Labour Prime Minister’s government leading historians expect Keir Starmer’s administration to most resemble in the years to come.

A poll of historians conducted by Anglia Ruskin University saw Harold Wilson’s two administrations in the 1960s voted the most likely counterpart for Keir Starmer’s new government. Some 16 of the 34 polled picked the 1964-66 and 1966-70 administrations led by Wilson.

Next placed was the New Labour era of 1997-2010 under Prime Ministers Tony Blair and Gordon Brown, which nine of the historians thought would be the closest match for the Starmer administration.

The university says: “By and large, historians believe the 2024 government will resemble the 1960s Wilson governments which had to deal with serious economic shocks (devaluation of the pound) whilst also producing social legislation that has stood the test of time (abortion, equal pay, capital punishment abolition).”

The remaining few votes were divided between the 1924 government – Labour’s first ever administration under Ramsay MacDonald – which got four votes, and one vote each for the 1929, 1945 and 1974 governments.

UK

Palestine – What should the new Labour Government do? It’s arms, stupid!


By Hugh Lanning, Labour & Palestine

JULY 14, 2024

LABOUR HUB EDITORS

The list is endless of the things a Labour Government could and should do. They could start with recognising Britain’s historic responsibility to put right the wrongs that have been done to the Palestinian people since we handed over their heritage and future with the Balfour declaration in 1917. Certainly, a step change in attitude is required, starting to side with the oppressed indigenous people rather than the oppressive coloniser would be a beginning.

But if the liberation and self-determination of Palestine is the objective, words of sympathy and commiseration are nowhere near enough. There are obvious short-term steps than can be taken – the restoration of funding to UNWRA, stopping the Tories obstructive action at the ICC – done at the behest of the US; actively pursuing an immediate and permanent ceasefire; recognising Palestine.

However, these are measures that any progressive Government with morals should do almost automatically. But much more is necessary if Labour is to pass the litmus test on Palestine and start to recoup the trust and credibility lost because of its failure to call for a ceasefire before it was in reality too late. The damage and the killing had already been done by the time Labour got around to it.

The core problem that needs to be tackled is Israel’s impunity – no matter what it does, the world, more specifically the West, lets it get away with actions that would not be tolerated by any other country. Israel knows that the US and its allies have their backs and will not allow anything meaningful to happen. For most countries in the world, Israel is already a pariah state; they see the apartheid regime in action, witness the genocide in progress, look on in shock at the killing fields of Gaza and cannot understand why the world doesn’t act.

A significant and meaningful act by Labour would be to start the process whereby the UK supports there being consequences for Israel’s actions in breach of international law.  To work, the system of international law relies on the fact that there is both a necessity and an obligation on Governments to take meaningful action against a renegade nation failing to comply with its obligations. It is not a pick and mix – choosing which laws you agree with and when you are going to follow them.

In short, there need to be sanctions. In South Africa, there was no real movement towards dismantling the apartheid regime until Governments, including eventually the United States, started imposing sanctions. So, if Labour is going to seek to make a difference, it can take advantage of the UK’s allegedly ‘special relationship’ with the US and start putting some clear water between our policies and stop acting as their glove puppet.

It is arms, stupid! To mimic the well-used slogan of Clinton’s 1992 presidential campaign, it is arms that are both the Achilles heel and the oppressive strength of Israel. Israel relies on arms supplies and aid from, primarily, the US but also other Western countries including the UK. It is not just supplying arms, it is buying them and cooperating militarily with Israel across the full spectrum of military, intelligence and security issues. This includes providing bases and logistic support.

It is not by its own endeavours that Israel has become one of the most powerful military forces in the world. It is directly the result of the $3.8bn annual aid the US gives it. Between 2018 and 2022, Israel spent more per capita on its military than everywhere in the world apart from the mega-rich Qatar. In 2022, Israel dedicated 4.5 percent of its gross domestic product to the military, the tenth highest percentage in the world. Even before the war on Gaza, Israel was a top military spender. Israel’s economy is a war-based, not a tiger economy; without it, it would be struggling.

The International Court of Justice ruling on there being a plausible case of genocide in Gaza should be sufficient for a credible Labour Government to immediately impose an arms embargo on Israel. The new Government should publish the advice the last Government got, but it needs to be resolved to act. It is not that the UK is a huge supplier of arms to Israel: the significance would be a signal that the new Government will not tolerate Israel’s continuous and blatant disregard for international law. There will be consequences.

We see on the television nightly how Israel uses its weaponry – it bombs, shoots and kills innocent Palestinians in their thousands. It uses food, water and electricity as weapons. A recent Lancet report stated that the indirect deaths being caused by the Israeli military machine are in a ratio of four to one. The 37,000 deaths should be sufficient cause for Labour to act – but the estimate that up to 180,000 or more deaths could be attributable to the actions of the Israeli Government should make the case for sanctions overwhelming.

In the coming months, there is the obvious danger that political groupings in this country and elsewhere will seek to arrogate the issue of Palestine to themselves, rather than allowing the Palestinian voice to be heard on their future. When visiting Palestine in the past, the message was always: don’t be telling us what to do, look to yourselves – what are you doing in your own country?

Rather than lecturing the Palestinians as to our preferred version of the solution, our focus should be on ending the UK’s complicity with Israel’s regime. To start, beginning the process of ending the arms trade while Israel remains in breach of international law – there should be an immediate arms embargo. This would be far more effective than vague promises about recognition at some to-be-determined future date. Israel needs to know that the world is going to act if it doesn’t stop its settlement and colonisation of Palestine.

The election showed the people of this country support peace and the liberation of Palestine. They expect a new Labour Government to do the same. But this won’t happen unless we keep the pressure up both on the streets and within the Party. An early lobby of Parliament is needed to bring the message to all the new MP’s. The unions have a crucial role to play, using the mandates from their members. At this crucial time we need coordination and unity – the issue of arms is both morally and politically the right focus.

Please sign the petition below or follow the link: The new UK Government should impose an embargo on arms sales to Israel. – Action Network.

Upcoming event

Palestine – What should the new UK Government do?

Online, Tuesday. July 16th, 18.30. Register here // FB share here // RT here.

With the Palestinian Ambassador to the UK, H.E Husam Zomlot.
Chaired by Jess Barnard, with further speakers tba – put the event in your diary today!

Hosted by Labour & Palestine. Kindly streamed by Arise – a Festival of Left Ideas. Free event but solidarity donations essential to streaming and hosting costs.


Viral ad imagines the England football team without immigration

13 July, 2024 
Left Foot Forward

'From the announcement of the starting line up, to our incredible five penalty takers, you can’t deny that migration is a success story for our mostly loved (and sometimes loathed) national sport.'


Ahead of England’s final against Spain, an advert that encourages England football fans to imagine what the team would look like without immigration is being widely circulated online.

The campaign, created for the Migration Museum in London, is designed to challenge anti-immigration sentiments by showing the vital contributions players from migrant backgrounds bring to the England team.

The Migration Museum stages events, campaigns, exhibitions, and learning programmes, focused on how the movement of people to and from the UK has shaped individuals, communities, and the nation.

Highlighting the impact immigration has on the England team, the campaign reveals that 15 of the 26-man team could have played for other countries due to their parents’ or grandparents’ nationalities, or because they were born outside of the UK.

The poster reveals only Jordan Pickford, John Stones, and Phil Foden remain in the squad’s starting 11. Top young talent including Jude Bellingham, Kobbie Mainoo, and Bukayo Saka, along with seasoned players like Harry Kane, could play for other nations. Kane, whose father is from Galway, could have potentially played in an Irish jersey. Similarly, Declan Rice’s grandparents were from Douglas, County Cork, and Kyle Walker is of Jamaican heritage through his father.

Immigration remains a polarising issue in Britain. Matthew Plowright, director of communications and engagement at the Migration Museum emphasised the unifying benefits of immigration.

“Migration is often seen as a divisive issue, but in reality it’s a story that connects us all. As our campaign has shown, almost all of England’s men’s Euros squad have migrant heritage – whether born abroad themselves, or as the children or grandchildren of immigrants.

“And if you peel back the layers of any of the players’ family histories further, you will likely find migration stories. It’s time to put migration at the heart of our national story – and with tens of millions of us watching the Euros this summer, where better to start than with football.”

The creative agency, Wonderhood Studios, designed the poster. Creative directors Jack Croft and Stacey Bird stated that the goal was to encourage England fans to view migration positively by considering its impact on the England team. “From the announcement of the starting line up, to our incredible five penalty takers, you can’t deny that migration is a success story for our mostly loved (and sometimes loathed) national sport,” they said.

The advert sparked extensive discussion online. One comment read: “Immigration is BEAUTIFUL. Without it, the England Team would not exist. As we celebrate their incredible success, we’re reminded how vital diversity and immigration are to teamwork and community.”

Another commented: “I have to laugh when I see some right-wingers wearing an England football shirt.”

“Dear Reform Party, Yaxley Lennon, and hard right Tories… without immigration England wouldn’t be in the final.”

Gabrielle Pickard-Whitehead is a contributing editor to Left Foot Forward

Image credit: Migration Museum X screen grab
UK
Suella Braverman condemned for describing government buildings flying rainbow flags as ‘occupied territory’

12 July, 2024 
LEFT FOOT FORWARD


'Yet again, Suella Braverman's rhetoric is dangerous & fuels division & hate.'



Former Home Secretary Suella Braverman is facing widespread condemnation and outrage after launching an extraordinary attack on the LGBT community, describing government buildings flying rainbow flags as “occupied territory”.

She made the disgraceful comments during a speech earlier this week at the National Conservatism conference in Washington DC.

Braverman had criticised government buildings flying the Progress version of the rainbow Pride flag.

Designed in 2018, the flag was created to represent people of colour in the LGBTQ+ community, as well as the trans community and those living with HIV/Aids.

Braverman claimed that the flag symbolised support for “the mutilation of children in our hospitals”, something which she said “physically repulsed” her.

Her comments have been condemned from both within and outside the Conservative Party.

Casey Byrne, a former Conservative candidate for Reading Borough Council and LGBTQ+ campaigner, said Braverman should be “expelled” for the comments she made.

Speaking at the National Conservatism Conference, Braverman said: “We Tory ministers, nominally in charge of the system, completely failed. The Progress flag flew over our buildings as if they were occupied territory. I couldn’t even get the flag of a horrible political campaign I disagreed with taken down from the roof of the government department I was supposed to be in charge of.”

Reacting to her comments, former Labour culture secretary Ben Bradshaw said: “Suella Braverman reveals the true face of the Tory right with her bitter fury about LGBT people. We exist. Get over it.”

Labour MP Kate Osborne posted on X: “Yet again, Suella Braverman’s rhetoric is dangerous & fuels division & hate. Her comments are an attack on the LGBTQ+ community & a clear sign that Tory leadership campaign will continue their “war on woke” whilst attacking each other.

“I’ll keep flying my flag with pride.”

Peter Tatchell posted on X: “Home Office flying of Pride flag was ‘monstrous thing’, says Suella Braverman

“This could have been a hate speech by National Front or BNP.

“Any party that allows Braverman to be a member is a threat to LGBTs & human rights.”

Basit Mahmood is editor of Left Foot Forward


UK
Over 236,000 people sign petition calling for Proportional Representation


Today
Left Foot Forward


'It feels as if the outdated First Past the Post voting system is creaking and failing voters on a massive scale.'

Hundreds of thousands of people have signed a petition calling for a voting system where every vote counts. Launched by the Electoral Reform Society (ERS), the petition advocates for a fairer voting system in Britain.

The ERS highlights how no party has won a majority of the vote in almost a century. Yet due to the voting system, Britain has a “near-constant single-party governments setting the rules for everyone.”

Under Britain’s first-past-the-post (FPTP) system, the candidate with the most votes in a constituency wins, regardless of whether they have a majority. Consequently, a party can secure a large number of seats without a proportional number of votes. Votes cast for losing candidates are therefore considered “wasted” as they do not contribute to the overall result. This can lead to feelings of disillusionment among voters and lower turnout on polling day, as people feel their votes do not matter.

Under Proportional representation (PR), the distribution of seats corresponds closely with the proportion of total votes cast for each party. Moving to a PR system would give minority parties and independent candidates a better chance of winning seats in parliament. As more people’s preferences are taken into account, under PR fewer votes are ‘wasted.’ This in turn can reduce apathy and lead to greater voter turnout.

At around just 60 percent, the 2024 general election turnout was the lowest in over 20 years. The only lower turnout in recent times was in 2001, when Tony Blair secured a second term with roughly 59 percent of voter participation.

The relationship between the number of seats won by the parties and their vote share has been described as one of the most disproportionate ever. Reform’s four million votes translated into 14 percent of the share of the total votes, but only 1 percent of all the seats in the House of Commons. Labour won 34 percent of total votes, but about 64 percent of the 650 seats. The Greens also had a considerably larger vote share than seat share, with 7 percent of the total vote but, like Reform, about 1 percent of total seats, or four MPs.

The ERS analysed how the outcome of the election would have looked if we had used the same electoral system they use for the Scottish and Welsh Parliaments instead. It found that under the Additional Member System (AMS), a form of proportional representation, where voters choose a constituency candidate and have a second vote for their preferred party to represent them regionally, there would have been a much closer alignment between votes shared and parliamentary seats. Labour would have been the largest party but with fewer seats, while the Tories, Lib Dems, SNP, Green Party, and Reform UK would have gained more seats proportionate to their vote shares. This suggests a fairer representation across Parliament compared to the current FTPT system.

Following the election, Darren Hughes, chief executive of the ERS, has been making the case for PR in TV and radio interviews across the UK. According to Hughes, the public are voting as if we already have PR, as it was the first election ever where four parties received over 10 percent of the vote and five parties received over 5 percent, while the combined Labour and Conservative vote share slumped to its lowest level on 57.4 percent, the second lowest combined vote share for the two parties was in 2010 when they received 65.1 percent.

“It feels as if the outdated First Past the Post voting system is creaking and failing voters on a massive scale. This has only strengthened the argument the ERS has long made: that it’s time to scrap this broken Westminster system and move to a fairer proportional voting system that accurately reflect how the whole country voted,” says Hughes.

Gabrielle Pickard-Whitehead is a contributing editor to Left Foot Forward

Sunday, July 14, 2024

"Captain, We Hit Smashed Into a Submarine": British and French Nuclear Missiles Subs Collided




July 14, 2024 

In 2009, the UK's HMS Vanguard and France's Le Triomphant, both nuclear-armed submarines, collided deep under the Atlantic Ocean. The collision caused visible damage to the Vanguard, but no radioactivity was released, and no injuries were reported.

by Maya Carlin 

Summary and Key Points: 

In 2009, the UK's HMS Vanguard and France's Le Triomphant, both nuclear-armed submarines, collided deep under the Atlantic Ocean. The collision caused visible damage to the Vanguard, but no radioactivity was released, and no injuries were reported.




-Despite agreements among NATO allies to share the general locations of submarines, ballistic-missile submarines are excluded. This incident highlighted the ongoing risks of submarine collisions, as similar accidents occurred during the Cold War.

-While some analysts suggest increased data sharing to prevent future collisions, others emphasize the importance of maintaining secrecy around nuclear-armed vessels.


While many have heard of submarines crashing to the bottom of the ocean floor or colliding with underwater mountains, it is harder to imagine that sometimes a ship’s greatest danger is simply another ship.

In 2009, two nuclear-armed submarines from France and the United Kingdom collided deep under the Atlantic Ocean. While no radioactivity was released, both ships were damaged when the Royal Navy’s HMS Vanguard struck France’s Trident-class Le Triomphant submarine. No crew members or injuries were reported by either country.

An Overview of the Incident

When the HMS Vanguard returned to its base in Scotland days later, it had visible damage on its starboard side and near its missile compartment. A whistleblower who served in the UK’s nuclear submarine program later claimed that, “The French submarine had took a massive chunk out of the front of HMS Vanguard and grazed down the side of the boat. The High Pressured Air (HPA) bottle groups were hanging off and banging against the pressure hull. They had to return to base port slowly, because if one of HPA bottle groups exploded it would've created a chain reaction and sent the submarine plummeting to the bottom.”

Perhaps the British government was minimizing the damage inflicted on the submarine in an effort to quell public concern over the potential dangers of nuclear leaks.

This freak accident was especially alarming since nuclear reactors power the ships, and both countries’ vessels routinely carry nuclear warheads onboard. Although “waterspace management” agreements among NATO allies direct member-states to advise one another of the general locations of submerged submarines, ballistic-missile-carrying ships are not included in the arrangement.



France’s Le Triomphant submarine could carry sixteen M45 ballistic missiles, and the Vanguard could carry the same number of Trident II missiles. Additionally, each submarine could carry 4 and 6 nuclear warheads, respectively.

The Triomphant-Vanguard incident did not mark the first time two submarines collided. During the Cold War, Western and Soviet ships collided on several occasions, according to The New York Times. In 1992, the American-made Baton Rouge nuclear submarine was struck by a surfacing Russian sub in the Barents Sea. Only one year after this mishap, the Russian K-407 collided with the USS Grayling. Decades earlier, in the mid-1970s, the U.S. Navy’s USS James Madison collided with a Soviet Victor-class attack submarine roughly 30 miles off the coast of Glasgow, near Holy Loch.



While some analysts argue that allies should share more data to mitigate the risks of future collisions, others argue that maintaining secrecy around nuclear-armed submarines is of the utmost importance. As Lee Willet of the Royal United Services Institute in London once put it, these vessels are the “strategic crown jewels” of any nation, and relaying such sensitive intelligence even to allies would be risky.
About the Maya Carlin

Maya Carlin, National Security Writer with The National Interest, is an analyst with the Center for Security Policy and a former Anna Sobol Levy Fellow at IDC Herzliya in Israel. She has by-lines in many publications, including The National Interest, Jerusalem Post, and Times of Israel. You can follow her on Twitter: @MayaCarlin

All images are Creative Commons.
Whales were healthy before Orkney stranding - expert

By Katy Scott, BBC Scotland News
BBC
Work is continuing on the beach where the whales were stranded

A pod of 77 pilot whales that died after washing ashore in Orkney were healthy before they became stranded, according to initial findings.

The animals were found on the island of Sanday on Thursday following what could be the largest mass stranding in nearly 100 years.

Cetacean specialists - whose expertise is in aquatic mammals - have been examining tissue samples to establish the cause of the stranding.

Mariel ten Doeschate, from the Scottish Marine Animal Stranding Scheme, told BBC Scotland News that thorough post-mortems had so far been carried out on about 30 whales.

She said: "Just about everyone in the UK who is involved with whale strandings is here on Sanday.

"We've been taking samples to determine the health status of the whales before the stranding and according to our initial preliminary findings, they all seem to have been healthy.

"So it's unlikely there was a sick leader who they were trying to stay with and protect."

Members of the public are being asked to stay away from the area.


Major operation to find cause of mass whale pod stranding


Whole pod of 77 whales die in 'biggest mass stranding in decades'



Experts arrived on the island on Friday and it is thought the full investigation could take three or four days.

"We are working through a process of elimination to find the cause," said Ms ten Doeschate.

"But these strandings are rarely the cause of a single source, it’s usually a combination of factors.

"Some of the whales had fresh stomach content which suggests they were feeding nearby around the time they became stranded.

"The beach they were stranded on is a very sandy beach which is often difficult for the whales to detect due to how their acoustics work."


'Pushed or pulled'


Pilot whales are social creatures and live in a matriarch-style social structure, with the oldest female seen as having the authority in the pod.

Ms ten Doeschate said the animals were stranded close together which is a behavioural stress response and means that something could have frightened them - like a sound or a predator - and made them cluster.

The investigators have taken ear samples from six key whales to look for acoustic trauma.

The research associate said the investigation was a way of ensuring the whales had "not died in vain" as the findings could be used to help wild whales in the future.

She said the team was also investigating if there were any killer whales nearby at the time.

"We need to consider whether they were pulled into going near the land because they were maybe pursuing prey, or were they pushed because they were avoiding something?" she added.


The whales were discovered grouped together on the beach


The pod included male whales, measuring up to seven metres (22ft) long, as well as females, calves and juveniles.

The British Divers Marine Life Rescue (BDMLR) established that 12 of the animals at Tresness Beach on the island of Sanday were still alive when they came out of the water.

Emma Neave-Webb, from the BDMLR charity, said the animals were thought have been stranded "for quite some time".

She said animals were very closely packed together with alive animals next to dead animals.

The area was cut off by the high tide and the whales needed to be moved back into an upright position as quickly as possible if there was to be any chance of saving them.

But the soft sand meant the whales fell back over when the rescuers attempted to right them.

The decision was made to euthanise the animals after efforts to save them failed.

Ms Neave-Webb said that removing the whales was a "massive undertaking".

Orkney Islands Council confirmed discussions were taking place with community representatives on how best to dispose of the bodies, with the "likely option" being burial.

The stranding is thought to be the largest UK stranding since 1927 when 126 out of more than 130 false killer whales died in the Dornoch Firth, in the Highlands.

Last year an entire pod of 55 pilot whales died following a stranding on Lewis.
The Guyana-Venezuela dispute and UK involvement

HMS Trent

ANALYSIS
By J. Vitor Tossini
- July 14, 2024


In late 2023, tensions between Guyana and Venezuela resurged following the latter’s renewed claims and hostile rhetoric over the Essequibo region, also known as “Guayana Esequiba.”

This region represents roughly 74% of Guyanese territory and 16% of its population. In response, Guyana sought support for its territorial integrity from the United States, the United Kingdom, Brazil, and others.

A crisis was temporarily averted after backing from Washington, London, and neighboring states for de-escalation. For Britain, however, a hotspot in the only Commonwealth member in South America leaves the country in a difficult position.

This article is the opinion of the author and not necessarily that of the UK Defence Journal. If you would like to submit your own article on this topic or any other, please see our submission guidelines.

Although the United States holds a preeminent stance over the region, if inaction from London is the primary response to a close partner asking for political support, the signaling to others might be counterproductive to the ambitions of a true Global Britain.
Historical Context

British Presence in Guyana


The British presence in the region of present-day Guyana goes back to the 1740s when the Dutch allowed British immigrants into the area near the Demerara River. The promise of land ownership attracted plantation owners from Britain’s Lesser Antilles, and within two decades, the British represented most of the Europeans in the Dutch Demerara.

When the Fourth Anglo-Dutch War (1780-1784) broke out over disputes concerning Dutch trade with British enemies in the American War of Independence, Britain briefly occupied the territory but was expelled by French forces. France maintained control of the colony until 1784 when it was handed back to the Dutch, which continued with the policy of chartering Demerara to the Dutch West India Company until 1792. However, the political influence of the British landowners had already become significant, and by the mid-1780s, the colony’s internal affairs were managed mainly by British subjects.
United Colony of Demerara and Essequibo

After the end of Company rule in 1792, the Dutch created the United Colony of Demerara and Essequibo, which came under the direct control of the Dutch Government while a separate colony was maintained for the Berbice River settlement. During the French Revolutionary Wars, the French occupation of the Netherlands in 1795 contributed directly to the successful and bloodless 1796 British expedition to take both Dutch colonies. The Treaty of Amiens briefly returned the two colonies to the Dutch at the end of the Second Coalition War.

Uninterrupted British rule would commence in 1803 when Britain terminated its uneasy truce with France. Shortly after the British declaration of war in May 1803, a force was dispatched to capture the Dutch colonies for the third and final time. Through the Anglo-Dutch Treaty of 1814, the United Netherlands formally transferred Essequibo, Demerara, and Berbice to the United Kingdom. Importantly, the Anglo-Dutch Treaty of 1814 did not stipulate the borders of the Dutch “settlements” ceded to the British, opening the way for future territorial disputes.

Emergence of Gran Colombia and British Guiana

The emergence of the independent Gran Colombia from the former Spanish territories of the Viceroyalty of New Granada led to contested claims as early as 1822, with complaints from Gran Colombia regarding the British colonization of claimed territories west of the Essequibo River. In 1831, Britain merged its colonies in the region, creating the colony of British Guiana.

A decade later, the first British attempt at delimitation of Guiana’s borders resulted in the Schomburgk Line, named after explorer and naturalist Robert Hermann Schomburgk, who was responsible for a botanical and geographical exploration of the territory in 1835. The Line set the overall tone of the territorial disputes with Venezuela – after the dissolution of Gran Colombia in 1839 – except for envisaging British Guiana reaching as far as the mouth of the Orinoco River. In 1850, although Britain and Venezuela agreed not to colonize the disputed territory, both countries refrained from defining the borders of the contested area.

Gold Reserves and Renewed Claims

During the next 26 years, the dispute remained dormant until gold reserves were discovered in 1876 and quickly explored by British-backed settlers. Venezuela renewed its original claims up to the Essequibo River. Britain’s response was a counterclaim covering the Schomburgk Line and all of the Cuyuni Basin, although the claims over the latter were essentially political. In late 1886, the British Government adopted the Line as the provisional western border of British Guiana, which led to Venezuela breaking diplomatic relations and seeking American support.

The United States did little for years until Venezuela hired William L. Scruggs as a lobbyist in Washington. Shortly after, tensions erupted in the form of the Venezuelan Crisis of 1895. Initially, London refused to subject the entire disputed territory to calls for arbitration. However, Scruggs’ influence in Washington and argumentation that Britain had violated the Monroe Doctrine led to American solid support for arbitration of the disputed territory.

Arbitration and Controversy

The 1899 Arbitration

By December 1895, the crisis had shifted from disagreements between London and Washington to a presidential address to Congress, which was seen as a threat to the British if they did not accept arbitration. In Britain, the matter’s relevance for the United States only began to be recognized after December. In January, the British Government accepted arbitration in principle and removed previous demands, including that any arbitration should use the Schomburgk Line as the basis for future negotiations.

Despite conceding to the proposal, the British managed to convince their American counterparts about several points, including the number of members of the future Panel of Arbitration. The British case rested on the argument that before the independence of Venezuela, Spain had not taken “effective possession” of the territory in question and that the Dutch had several arrangements and alliances with local Native Americans, which in practice gave the Dutch a sphere of influence that was transferred to Britain in the Anglo-Dutch Treaty of 1814.

However, the British argumentation received little support among the sitting American members of the Tribunal of Arbitration. Meanwhile, Britain and Venezuela formalized the procedures and signed the Treaty of Washington, agreeing to respect the decision of the Tribunal as the “perfect, and final settlement” to the dispute.

The Tribunal’s Decision

The Tribunal’s decision was disclosed in October 1899, awarding Venezuela only slightly more than 10% of the disputed territory and granting Britain the remaining area. Most of the Schomburgk Line remained as the border, with the main alterations being changes near the mouth of the Orinoco River, granted to Venezuela.

The Tribunal of Arbitration gave no reasoning for its decision. Although perceived as a national defeat, the Venezuelan Government accepted the ruling. A commission surveyed the new border, and both parties accepted the verdict in 1905.
Renewed Disputes and the Geneva Agreement

Mallet-Prevost Memorandum

The dispute would arise again more than half a century after the 1899 Arbitration decision. In 1949, the Mallet-Prevost memorandum was posthumously published. Its author, Severo Mallet-Prevost, official secretary of the American and Venezuelan delegations during the 1899 Arbitral Award, stated that the favorable ruling towards Britain resulted from a deal between the British and Russian governments. The deal supposedly involved the Russian representative of the five-member arbitration panel, Friedrich Martens, granting the British a 3 to 2 majority; as the British side had two sitting members, the Venezuelan-American had another two, and Friedrich Martens was the independent fifth member.

Mallet-Prevost explained in his memorandum that the US-Venezuela judges were forced to choose between a “consensus deal” that would grant Venezuela some relevant stretches of land while agreeing with British possession of the remaining area or face a 3 to 2 decision that would be even more favorable to Britain. Mallet-Prevost’s memorandum reinforced the suspicions in Venezuela that the 1899 Arbitral Tribunal had been unjustifiably one-sided. The South American country promptly revived its claims over the then-British Guiana. In the mid-1950s, Venezuela, under a military dictatorship, initiated plans to invade and annex Essequibo, but the dictator – Marcos Pérez Jiménez – was overthrown, and democracy was restored before the invasion commenced.

Bringing the Matter to the United Nations

In 1962, based on the Mallet-Prevost memorandum, Venezuela brought the matter to the United Nations, arguing that the 1899 decision was null and void. Although Venezuela could not provide additional documents to prove its case, the UK agreed to engage in new conversations, mainly due to ongoing plans to disengage from British Guiana. In November 1963, representatives of Venezuela, the UK, and British Guiana met in London.

The result was a communiqué declaring that all parties should work to “Find satisfactory solutions for a practical settlement of the controversy which has arisen as a result of the Venezuelan contention that the 1899 award is null and void”. A high-profile meeting occurred in the following month with similar results. The British and Guianese agreed to “find satisfactory solutions” to the alleged nullity of the 1899 decision, which means finding evidence that corroborates the Venezuelan calls for nullity.

The Geneva Agreement

Following these meetings, negotiations started for what would be known as the 1966 Geneva Agreement between the United Kingdom – on behalf of British Guiana, independent in May 1966 – and Venezuela. Signed in February 1966, Article I reiterated the aim to search for “satisfactory solutions for a practical settlement of the controversy between Venezuela and the United Kingdom, which has arisen as the result of the Venezuelan contention that the Arbitral Award of 1899 about the frontier between British Guiana and Venezuela is null and void.”

Simply put, the core aim of the Agreement remained the same as the communiqué signed almost three years before. However, in the Agreement, there were no concessions over the sovereignty of the disputed territory, and all parties agreed to make no further claims or enlarge existing claims. They also established a four-year period for the resolution of the dispute. Notably, through Article VIII, Britain tied itself to the question of still being a part of the Agreement even after the independence of British Guiana, with lingering expectations from Guyana as an independent nation. In this regard, as Dr. Odeen Ishmael, former Guyanese ambassador, stated: “Great Britain has never handed over its rights as a party to the Guyana government, and must, therefore, play an active role in resisting any claim by Venezuela to Guyana’s territory”.

Geneva Agreement Violations and the Port of Spain Protocol

Lastly, the Geneva Agreement states that if the parties fail to find a solution to the case through a Mixed Commission, they shall refer the decision to the “appropriate international organ upon which they both agree or, failing agreement on this point, to the Secretary-General of the United Nations”.

It is worth mentioning that this would influence the 2020 decision of the Secretary-General to send the matter to the International Court of Justice (ICJ). Four months after the independence of Guyana, Venezuela performed the first violation of the Geneva Agreement when it invaded the Guyanese part of Ankoko Island, quickly building facilities to support a military garrison on the occupied territory. After the expiration of the Mixed Commission in 1970, Venezuela and Guyana agreed on a protocol to the Geneva Agreement.

In short, the 1970 Port of Spain Protocol was a 12-year moratorium on the border dispute, a temporary suspension on Venezuela’s claims over the Essequibo, that would allow the two sides to foster cooperation and partnership without the shadow of territorial disagreements. The Protocol was signed by representatives of three parties of the Geneva Agreement, meaning that Britain remained involved in the question. Nevertheless, adverse reactions in Venezuela resulted in the Port of Spain Protocol not being renewed when its deadline expired. Shortly after the Protocol’s expiration in 1983, Venezuela declared interest in reopening bilateral talks with Guyana without the involvement of third parties.

A counter-proposal accompanied the Guyanese rejection, which involved taking the case to the United Nations General Assembly, the Security Council, or the International Court of Justice. Venezuela repudiated the proposals, and the dispute remained unchanged until four years later. In that year, both countries accepted the Good Offices method of settling international disputes, in which a third party, with the consent of the disputing states, serves as a neutral mediator between the governments to aid them in achieving a solution. Since 1989, the intermediary has been a representative of the Secretary-General of the United Nations.

Recent Developments and Renewed Tensions

Oil Discoveries and Increasing Tensions

Throughout the 1990s and early 2000s, the issue continued under the auspices of a representative of the Secretary-General. Signs that the contention had been thawing out in the last decade could be seen when Venezuelan President Hugo Chávez visited Georgetown in 2004, declaring the dispute to be finished. The situation would start changing in 2006 after Venezuela altered its flag to include an eighth star symbolizing the Essequibo region.

Any prevailing doubts about Chávez’s actual position on the dispute were lifted in 2011 when Guyana submitted an application to the UN Commission on the Limits of the Continental Shelf to extend its continental shelf by a further 280 kilometers (150 nautical miles). Considering the dispute essentially over, Guyana made its application, knowing that the Commission only analyzes cases of areas that are not subject to territorial disputes. Ending pretenses that an accommodation to the case was closed, Venezuela sent an objection to the Commission stating that the Guyanese application had areas subject to an ongoing unsettled international sovereignty dispute.

The following decade would witness renewed tensions, particularly from the Venezuelan side, fostered by growing prospecting for oil in Guyanese territory. In 2013, a vessel conducting exploration for oil on behalf of the Guyanese Government was detained by Venezuela, triggering a minor diplomatic crisis. Three years later, Guyana granted a license to drill for oil in an area offshore the Essequibo to the American multinational ExxonMobil. Within a few months, it was clear that Guyana and its Economic Exclusive Zone (EEZ) had promising oil reserves. Despite protests from Caracas and the inclusion of the disputed maritime zone as part of a Venezuelan marine protection area, Georgetown authorized further drillings. Significant discoveries started to happen in 2017.
ICJ Involvement and Economic Transformation

Meanwhile, the Secretary-General of the United Nations, António Guterres, argued that the dispute had not seen “significant progress” in decades. The Secretary-General also stated that he intended to hand the case to the International Court of Justice if there was no explicit objection from both sides. In 2018, Guterres handed the case to the ICJ – with Guyana’s support – on whether the 1899 Arbitration was valid and stated that the Good Offices practices were insufficient to reach an agreement.

While the ICJ analyzed the question, crude oil production started in 2019. Within four years, the offshore area of the Essequibo – known as the Stabroek block – propelled Guyana to become one of the largest crude oil producers, only behind the United States and Brazil in the Americas and ahead of Norway and China. As the US Energy Information Administration stated: “Since starting production in 2019, Guyana has increased its crude oil production to 645,000 barrels per day (b/d) as of early 2024, all from the Stabroek block.” Guyana’s crude oil production grew rapidly, with an annual 98,000 b/d increase on average between 2020 and 2023.

Consequently, the country’s Gross Domestic Product (GDP) experienced unparalleled growth, with a 49% increase in 2020. By 2022, the GDP grew an additional 62.3%, making Guyana, by some metrics, the fastest-growing country in the world. In 2024, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) expected Guyana to remain the fastest-growing country worldwide, with growth above 30% due to its oil and gas boom. Guyana has witnessed a quick and sharp economic transformation, with significant improvements to its Human Development Index and the purchasing power of its population.

Renewed Hostilities

Within this context of a golden age for the economy of Guyana reappeared the belligerent and sabre-rattling posture of a Venezuela engulfed by economic and political problems. Between the submission of the case to the ICJ in early 2018 and the Court’s ruling that it had jurisdiction to determine the territorial dispute in early 2023, the whole process was criticized by Venezuela, which abstained from partaking in the proceedings of the ICJ, including hearings and submission of argumentation. On 18 October, reports of an increased Venezuelan military presence near the contested border prompted Guyana to question its neighbor through diplomatic channels.

The 2023 crisis would only erupt on 23 October 2023 – roughly one month after Guyana granted new offshore drilling licenses – with the Venezuelan Government increasing the hostility of its rhetoric with the proposal of a referendum to oppose “by all means” Guyana’s use of the Economic Exclusive Zone off Essequibo and give Venezuelan citizenship to the population of Essequibo, dated to occur on 3 December 2023. Shortly after, on 31 October, Guyana submitted a request to the International Court of Justice requesting a position on Venezuela’s behavior. Two days before the referendum, the Court ruled that Venezuela should take no actions to alter the status quo while the Court analyzed the case.

In the weeks before the referendum, Guyana sought support from its traditional partners, mainly the United States, Britain, and neighboring states. As the vote in Venezuela approached, Guyana gathered support for its territorial integrity from Brazil, Britain, the United States, the Caribbean Community, the Commonwealth of Nations, and others. Additionally, Guyana’s Prime Minister Mark Anthony Phillips accused Venezuela of “considerably expanding its military forces” near the border and gathered support from Brazil, the United States, and the Secretary General of the Organization of American States.

On 14 November 2023, an initiative by the Community of Latin American and Caribbean States successfully held a meeting with the leaders of Guyana and Venezuela and officials from the United Nations. Both sides agreed not to resort to the use of force or escalate tensions while stating that they decided to settle the issue in accordance with international law. However, the same statement declared that Venezuela does not recognize the ICJ’s jurisdiction over the dispute.

Despite diplomatic moves to ease tensions, the referendum occurred on 3 December. Soon after, the Venezuelan Government declared that 95% of voters supported the questions in the ballot, claiming it had a renewed mandate to incorporate the Essequibo region. International analysts questioned the referendum’s validity, pointing out the likelihood of Caracas falsifying the results.

The turnout was also meagre for Venezuela. Within a week, the Venezuelan President, Nicolás Maduro, stated that he had already initiated proceedings to incorporate the region, but the whole process could take a few years. It is worth noting that the referendum and other attempts to change the status quo violated the 1966 Geneva Agreement.

Three days after the referendum, the Brazilian Army reported that it had detected an increase in Venezuelan troops near the border with Guyana and that the Brazilian Government had been taking actions to increase the number of its forces near the Brazilian border with Venezuela and Guyana. Shortly after, Brazil issued a statement renewing its support for Guyana’s territorial integrity and a peaceful solution to the dispute. At this stage, Brazil feared being dragged into a conflict if Venezuela used the more accessible land routes to Guyana by crossing Brazilian territory.

In practice, this meant that Maduro lost sympathy from the only major country in South America that he hoped to stay – at least – neutral and desired to court to his side. The Brazilian Government was also worried that Venezuela’s behavior would lead to the establishment of foreign military bases in Guyana. Hence its unequivocal support for peaceful solutions, de-escalation, and the efforts to act as an intermediary between the two parties.

International Responses

British and American Involvement


Four days after the vote, the United States announced that it would dispatch military forces to participate in joint operations with their Guyanese counterparts to improve cooperation in security measures. On 18 December, Britain was the first Group of Seven (G7) country to dispatch a minister to Guyana since the renewed tensions in October. The Minister for the Americas, Caribbean, and Overseas Territories, David Rutley, declared he was there “to offer the UK’s unequivocal backing to our Guyanese friends” and that “the border issue has been settled for over 120 years.”

The Minister also stated that “the UK will continue to work with partners in the region, as well as through international bodies, to ensure the territorial integrity of Guyana is upheld.” The visit was the second of the Minister for the Americas to Guyana in 2023. As part of efforts to improve bilateral trade between Britain and Guyana, Rutley was present in March 2023 when the British Chamber of Commerce was officially launched in the country.

Shortly after the visit of the British Minister for the Americas and the United States announcement of joint exercises with Guyana, on 24 December, the British Government stated that a Royal Navy vessel would be deployed to the country as part of joint operations with Guyana’s defense forces.

The vessel in question was the Offshore Patrol Vessel (OPV) HMS Trent, deployed to the Caribbean to assume patrol duties from her sister ship, HMS Medway, while her maintenance in Gibraltar was underway. Venezuela’s reaction included declarations about Britain bringing instability to the region and ordering a “defensive” military exercise near the border, with roughly 6,000 personnel involved. Despite the Venezuelan rhetoric and attempts at military displays of force, HMS Trent conducted her duties with her Guyanese counterparts without disturbance.

Continued Military Buildup and Diplomatic Efforts


Although Venezuela and Guyana continued to hold meetings – with Brazilian mediation – into 2024, reports of a military buildup on the Venezuelan side of the border permeated most discussions after the referendum. In early April 2024, Maduro signed into law the creation of a Venezuelan province in what is the Essequibo, weakening ongoing diplomatic efforts to minimize tensions.

By mid-2024, Venezuela continued to expand its military infrastructure near the border with Guyana. Meanwhile, the United States has pledged to assist Guyana in acquiring new military equipment, including aircraft, helicopters, drones, and radar technology. In June, in another display of growing American commitment and interest, Under Secretary Jenkins visited Guyana to discuss issues concerning, among other things, “international security.” Similarly, numerous Southern Command (SOUTHCOM) officers have visited the country since December 2023.

Positions of Key International Players


The dispute also questioned the position of Venezuela’s main diplomatic and economic partners, particularly China. For China, the dispute could potentially disrupt its expanding investments in Guyana’s oil fields, with Chinese oil companies having a 25% stake in the Starbroek oil block, only behind the American ExxonMobil (45% stake) and Hess (30%). Venezuela’s position as a supplier of crude oil and buyer of Chinese security and military assets further complicates China’s stance.

Thus, between 2023 and 2024, China has attempted to follow a middle ground, aiming to keep both sides pleased. The Russian position is relatively simple when compared to the Chinese. Russia’s stance can be described as mimicking Venezuelan arguments and claims, offering tacit support for Maduro’s ambitions.

The British-Guyanese Connection

Economic and Political Ties


The shared history of Britain and Guyana contributes to the view in Georgetown that London remains a relevant partner. Despite the relative decline of the British economic influence in South America and the Caribbean, Britain is still a relevant partner with strong economic ties with some regional countries, particularly Commonwealth members. Guyana is one of these regional partners, traditionally having Britain as one of its largest trading partners.

According to the British Department of Business and Trade, between 2013 and 2022, the total bilateral trade with Britain accounted for roughly 8.7% of Guyanese trade on average and has been on the rise since the discovery of oil. By 2023, crude oil represented more than 95% of British imports from the South American nation. British exports to Guyana were marked by “road vehicles other than cars” (34%), “general industrial machinery” (17.3%) and “specialized machinery” (16.9%).

British exports to the country in the first quarter of 2023 grew by 96.5% compared to 2022. In 2023, total trade of goods and services reached £1.8 billion, a rise of 50% compared to 2022, with almost £950 million of trade surplus for Britain. Between 2016 and 2023, trade expanded fifteenfold. Thus, the tendency is one of increased Anglo-Guyanese trade as Guyana expands its oil production capacity and the demand for machinery and know-how to manage its growing economy. Although a relatively small economy, Guyana has the potential to become a reliable source of crude oil imports for Britain, easing the pressure on the vital sea lanes in the Red Sea and Indian Ocean. Nevertheless, strengthening bilateral relations – economically and politically – will demand a renewed policy for the region.

Strategic Considerations

As Maduro marches on with his jingoistic rhetoric, Britain’s interests in Guyana are caught within a moment of rising stakes. The only Commonwealth member in South America with significant potential as a reliable economic partner has already called Britain for support in its question to maintain its territorial integrity. Besides seeing Britain as an important economic and political partner, possibly helping the country to advance into the era of the “oil boom,” Guyana also recognizes Britain as tied to the border question due to the

British not relinquishing their position as one of the parties of the Geneva Agreement. Moreover, Britain’s support means that Guyana has more than one major country on its side, while Venezuela is emboldened mainly by Russia. For Britain, the question of Guyana and the Essequibo is one of recognizing that – even if Venezuelan aggression might be a distant concept – British support remains highly relevant to the dispute, and providing useful support to Guyana’s territorial integrity is mutually beneficial, allowing the British economic presence in the country to grow and contributing to Guyana itself benefiting from its natural resources with political stability.

Conclusion

The dispute over the Essequibo might be overlooked, but it is still an opportunity to prove that Britain is truly “global” and willing to reinforce links with old partners. In addition, the case of Guyana reinforces the view that the international arena of the 2020s is quickly becoming increasingly more competitive and unstable than it was in the 1990s or 2000s. Nevertheless, despite rhetoric acknowledging the changes, British defence and foreign policy struggled to break free from the mindset of the 1990s. As the sources of instability that threaten or challenge British global interests multiply, the Government in London must understand that ensuring national security and defending British interests are tasks that ultimately demand investment and cannot be run cheaply.

This is particularly the case about topics not entangled by a formal British network of alliances and security pacts. Even when considering interests supported by alliances, a prepared Britain will have a loud voice in a crowded room of allies to help decide how to achieve shared objectives. When considering the British position and interests internationally, the Essequibo dispute might initially appear secondary at best. However, an underlying issue remains: similar crises are likely to erupt elsewhere, and when British interests are involved, the UK’s peer competitors will take notice of the British stance and actions.


J. Vitor Tossini
Vitor is a doctoral student of International Relations at the Sao Paulo State University. He also explores British imperial and military history, and its legacies to the modern world.


Fatal hoist/scaffold collapse

Three people are dead and nine injured after a scaffold and transport platform/hoist collapsed in the Swiss town of Lausanne on Friday.

 15.07.2024
The scene on Friday

The incident occurred in Prilly, a suburb on the north west side of Lausanne, on a 19 storey building fully covered with façade scaffold for a major refurbishment. A Geda transport platform/materials hoist was also installed. The initial findings have suggested that platform installation may have been at fault and pulled the whole corner section of the scaffold down with it. A Manitou telehandler was also buried under the fallen scaffold debris.

The police have confirmed that three people working on the site have died while another four are seriously injured, and a further five received more minor injuries.

We will update this item as we discover more information.
THE EMPIRE DEVOLVES
Manufacturing jobs in England fall while devolved nations see growth

Alan Jones, PA Industrial Correspondent
Sun, 14 July 2024 


The devolved nations of Wales, Scotland and Northern Ireland have seen big growth in the number of manufacturing jobs in the last year, in contrast to most English regions, according to new research.

A survey by Make UK and BDO showed that, in the year to March, the number of manufacturing jobs in Wales increased by 13,000, in Scotland by 10,000 and in Northern Ireland by 2,000.

Every English region saw a fall in manufacturing jobs in the same period, with the East of England being the only region showing a slight rise, the study found.

The report said there was a total fall of 34,000 manufacturing jobs over the year.

It added that pressure on finding skilled people is still “severe” as 64,000 vacancies remain in the manufacturing sector.

Make UK urged the new Government to make tackling skill shortages and reforming the technical education system, the centrepiece of its forthcoming industrial strategy.

Verity Davidge, director of policy at Make UK, said: “The new Government has made a welcome bold statement of its intent to tackle the UK’s anaemic growth at national and regional level.

“It should now back this with a radical, cross-government, long-term industrial strategy which has measures to tackle the UK’s acute skills crisis at its heart.”

Richard Austin, head of manufacturing at BDO, said: “Over the last few years, manufacturers across the regions and nations have faced multiple external shocks and changing policy priorities.

“There is now an exciting opportunity for the sector to work with the new Government on the development of a new long-term industrial strategy.

“This could help address longstanding skills shortages, boost infrastructure, improve productivity and unlock vital investment to help drive economic growth and prosperity.”