By Jacob ReidJuly 26, 2024
(Bloomberg)
(Bloomberg) -- When Brexit architect Nigel Farage announced he was standing for Reform UK in the July 4 general election, he was clear where his votes would come from. The Conservatives had betrayed the trust of voters, and “deserve to pay a price for that,” he said.
But after Reform took 14% of the vote, the populist leader adjusted his sights, with an eye to the next election in 2029: “We’re coming for Labour, be in no doubt,” he said.
Farage is “going to shake the tree and create chaos and havoc,” said Andrés Rodríguez-Pose, a professor of economic geography at the London School of Economics.
Nevertheless, Bloomberg analysis of the election results and interviews with voters in Northeast England, a region where Reform did well, suggest Farage may have maxed out on the party’s potential in traditionally Labour areas.
Factors weighing on the insurgent party include public perception that it’s a one-man band, Farage’s polarizing personality, and a policy program to shrink the state while Labour voters typically want more government investment in public services.
On the face of it, the bare statistics suggest Prime Minister Keir Starmer should take the threat seriously: Reform won just five constituencies in the House of Commons — but came second in another 98 — including 89 won by Labour. Moreover Farage now has a voice in Parliament, after finally winning a seat at the eighth attempt.
But drill down, and it’s less promising for Reform: In seats where they came second to Labour, the average margin was 25%, according to Bloomberg calculations. Farage’s party would likely need to chisel away more at Tory support — already at record low ebb in modern times — to make inroads into the governing party.
In interviews in Newcastle, Durham, Sunderland and Gateshead, just two of the 25 voters Bloomberg spoke to who hadn’t voted for Reform said they’d consider doing so in the future. The other 23 said they’d never contemplate it.
Harry Stephenson, a Labour voter in Newcastle, described Farage as a “wolf in sheep’s clothing.” Tom Smith — who didn’t vote — said “Farage is the last person I’d vote for.” In Gateshead, Green Party backer Keith Davidson dismissed the Reform leader as an “idiot.”
Those remarks are typical of the visceral reaction Farage provokes in many Britons, because of his role in the divisive Brexit referendum and his inflammatory anti-immigration rhetoric. Kelly Beard Golden, a Labour voter from South Shields said she thinks Reform UK is a party that attracts racist voters.
Yet Farage will need to win over those who didn’t vote Reform if he’s to encroach on Labour.
In the northeast, Reform came second in 18 of 27 seats, taking almost 20% of votes. That relative success is in part down to tapping into a sense of alienation among people in left-behind regions, according to Fiona Hill — a senior fellow at the Brookings Institution and former adviser to Donald Trump who hails from Bishop Auckland, a northeastern town where Reform polled well.
“We effectively live in two countries” divided by differing opportunities, Hill said by phone.
Key to Labour’s efforts to defuse Reform’s threat will be getting a handle on immigration. The Conservatives oversaw record levels of net immigration by legal routes — peaking at 764,000 in 2022 — and those arriving by small boat from France.
That made for a potent electoral boost for Reform: two thirds of their voters said it was their primary issue of concern, according to More In Common. Steven Averill, who works at a market in Newcastle, is a case in point, saying he voted Farage because he’d “sort out immigration.”
Hill said that places like Bishop Auckland may not have a large immigrant population, but there’s a perception that European migration to London has deprived northeasterners of opportunities to work in industries such as construction in the UK capital, while central government spending that might have gone to the region has instead been spent on services for the newcomers.
Mass “uncontrolled” immigration has increased demand for houses and therefore contributed to rising prices, according to Rhys Burriss, the Reform candidate in Bishop Auckland. “It’s on pages one, two and three of any economic textbook.”
Farage also taps into a sense that mainstream political parties have failed for decades to improve the lot of left-behind areas — a perception that also contributed to the Brexit vote.
“The Tories and Labour are all the same,” said Jane Dowling, a Reform voter who owns a sandwich shop near Newcastle’s quayside. “We’ve had Labour and Conservatives for god knows how many years and it’s killing us.”
Nevertheless, if Reform is really to pose a challenge to Labour, it needs to broaden its appeal by showing its policies are viable. Reform’s support this month is little more than the 12.6% of votes Farage’s UK Independence Party win in 2015 — illustrating how little his electoral coalition has changed since then.
In 2024, Reform’s election manifesto promised £140 billion ($182 billion) of tax cuts and spending increases — sums that “do not add up,” according to the Institute for Fiscal Studies. Farage’s views in other areas — he’s advocated for more private involvement in the National Health Service and blamed the West for provoking Russia — also dim his appeal in a country where health care free at the point of use is totemic.
Reform also lacks the party infrastructure needed to run a full-scale election campaign that mobilizes voters. During this year’s campaign, activists were filmed making racial slurs, some candidates were not properly vetted, and one even had to deny being imaginary.
“This is a party that has functioned essentially as a one-man band, with very little ground game,” said Eoin Sheehan, analyst at Redfield & Wilton.
While Farage has said he intends to leading Reform through to the next election, with ambitions to become prime minister, he was already absent from Parliament last week to be in Milwaukee for the Republican Party convention.
Perhaps the biggest danger to Labour is if Reform’s fortunes head in the other direction. Bloomberg analysis using Focaldata figures suggests 68% of Reform’s backers in 2024 voted Tory in 2019. If all went back, the Conservatives could reclaim 101 Labour seats.
Ultimately, Starmer’s best defense is delivery: he’s pledged to stimulate growth by getting Britain building. If he can do that while slashing immigration and cutting NHS waiting lists, he may go a long way to addressing the grievances fueling Reform’s success.
“If the economy improves under Labour, and if public services improve under Labour, it almost doesn’t matter who they are trying to win votes from because they will get more votes,” said Maria Sobolewska, a politics professor at the University of Manchester. “The fundamental truth of electoral politics is that voters will reward a successful incumbent.”
--With assistance from Michael Ovaska, Andre Tartar and Jeremy Diamond.
©2024 Bloomberg L.P.
(Bloomberg) -- When Brexit architect Nigel Farage announced he was standing for Reform UK in the July 4 general election, he was clear where his votes would come from. The Conservatives had betrayed the trust of voters, and “deserve to pay a price for that,” he said.
But after Reform took 14% of the vote, the populist leader adjusted his sights, with an eye to the next election in 2029: “We’re coming for Labour, be in no doubt,” he said.
Farage is “going to shake the tree and create chaos and havoc,” said Andrés Rodríguez-Pose, a professor of economic geography at the London School of Economics.
Nevertheless, Bloomberg analysis of the election results and interviews with voters in Northeast England, a region where Reform did well, suggest Farage may have maxed out on the party’s potential in traditionally Labour areas.
Factors weighing on the insurgent party include public perception that it’s a one-man band, Farage’s polarizing personality, and a policy program to shrink the state while Labour voters typically want more government investment in public services.
On the face of it, the bare statistics suggest Prime Minister Keir Starmer should take the threat seriously: Reform won just five constituencies in the House of Commons — but came second in another 98 — including 89 won by Labour. Moreover Farage now has a voice in Parliament, after finally winning a seat at the eighth attempt.
But drill down, and it’s less promising for Reform: In seats where they came second to Labour, the average margin was 25%, according to Bloomberg calculations. Farage’s party would likely need to chisel away more at Tory support — already at record low ebb in modern times — to make inroads into the governing party.
In interviews in Newcastle, Durham, Sunderland and Gateshead, just two of the 25 voters Bloomberg spoke to who hadn’t voted for Reform said they’d consider doing so in the future. The other 23 said they’d never contemplate it.
Harry Stephenson, a Labour voter in Newcastle, described Farage as a “wolf in sheep’s clothing.” Tom Smith — who didn’t vote — said “Farage is the last person I’d vote for.” In Gateshead, Green Party backer Keith Davidson dismissed the Reform leader as an “idiot.”
Those remarks are typical of the visceral reaction Farage provokes in many Britons, because of his role in the divisive Brexit referendum and his inflammatory anti-immigration rhetoric. Kelly Beard Golden, a Labour voter from South Shields said she thinks Reform UK is a party that attracts racist voters.
Yet Farage will need to win over those who didn’t vote Reform if he’s to encroach on Labour.
In the northeast, Reform came second in 18 of 27 seats, taking almost 20% of votes. That relative success is in part down to tapping into a sense of alienation among people in left-behind regions, according to Fiona Hill — a senior fellow at the Brookings Institution and former adviser to Donald Trump who hails from Bishop Auckland, a northeastern town where Reform polled well.
“We effectively live in two countries” divided by differing opportunities, Hill said by phone.
Key to Labour’s efforts to defuse Reform’s threat will be getting a handle on immigration. The Conservatives oversaw record levels of net immigration by legal routes — peaking at 764,000 in 2022 — and those arriving by small boat from France.
That made for a potent electoral boost for Reform: two thirds of their voters said it was their primary issue of concern, according to More In Common. Steven Averill, who works at a market in Newcastle, is a case in point, saying he voted Farage because he’d “sort out immigration.”
Hill said that places like Bishop Auckland may not have a large immigrant population, but there’s a perception that European migration to London has deprived northeasterners of opportunities to work in industries such as construction in the UK capital, while central government spending that might have gone to the region has instead been spent on services for the newcomers.
Mass “uncontrolled” immigration has increased demand for houses and therefore contributed to rising prices, according to Rhys Burriss, the Reform candidate in Bishop Auckland. “It’s on pages one, two and three of any economic textbook.”
Farage also taps into a sense that mainstream political parties have failed for decades to improve the lot of left-behind areas — a perception that also contributed to the Brexit vote.
“The Tories and Labour are all the same,” said Jane Dowling, a Reform voter who owns a sandwich shop near Newcastle’s quayside. “We’ve had Labour and Conservatives for god knows how many years and it’s killing us.”
Nevertheless, if Reform is really to pose a challenge to Labour, it needs to broaden its appeal by showing its policies are viable. Reform’s support this month is little more than the 12.6% of votes Farage’s UK Independence Party win in 2015 — illustrating how little his electoral coalition has changed since then.
In 2024, Reform’s election manifesto promised £140 billion ($182 billion) of tax cuts and spending increases — sums that “do not add up,” according to the Institute for Fiscal Studies. Farage’s views in other areas — he’s advocated for more private involvement in the National Health Service and blamed the West for provoking Russia — also dim his appeal in a country where health care free at the point of use is totemic.
Reform also lacks the party infrastructure needed to run a full-scale election campaign that mobilizes voters. During this year’s campaign, activists were filmed making racial slurs, some candidates were not properly vetted, and one even had to deny being imaginary.
“This is a party that has functioned essentially as a one-man band, with very little ground game,” said Eoin Sheehan, analyst at Redfield & Wilton.
While Farage has said he intends to leading Reform through to the next election, with ambitions to become prime minister, he was already absent from Parliament last week to be in Milwaukee for the Republican Party convention.
Perhaps the biggest danger to Labour is if Reform’s fortunes head in the other direction. Bloomberg analysis using Focaldata figures suggests 68% of Reform’s backers in 2024 voted Tory in 2019. If all went back, the Conservatives could reclaim 101 Labour seats.
Ultimately, Starmer’s best defense is delivery: he’s pledged to stimulate growth by getting Britain building. If he can do that while slashing immigration and cutting NHS waiting lists, he may go a long way to addressing the grievances fueling Reform’s success.
“If the economy improves under Labour, and if public services improve under Labour, it almost doesn’t matter who they are trying to win votes from because they will get more votes,” said Maria Sobolewska, a politics professor at the University of Manchester. “The fundamental truth of electoral politics is that voters will reward a successful incumbent.”
--With assistance from Michael Ovaska, Andre Tartar and Jeremy Diamond.
©2024 Bloomberg L.P.
