A boomer with $50,000 in student loans voted for Trump in the last election. But with Biden's new repayment plan blocked, she's considering supporting a Democratic ticket.

Ayelet Sheffey
Sun, July 28, 2024 

Rebecca Hill, 61, is an independent voter with student loans who voted for Trump in 2016.


With the GOP pushing to block the SAVE student-loan repayment plan, she's considering voting for a Democrat.


She said the lower payments through SAVE allowed her to afford medicine, groceries, and gas.

Rebecca Hill isn't a fan of either political party right now, but the chaos surrounding student debt might make her vote Democrat.

Hill, 61, is an independent voter, and in the past, she said she has leaned to the right — she voted for Trump in the 2016 election.

Now, however, Hill is reconsidering her vote. She has nearly $50,000 in student loans, according to documents reviewed by Business Insider, and she enrolled in President Joe Biden's SAVE student-loan repayment plan, intended to lower borrowers' payments based on their income and give them a shorter timeline to debt cancellation.

That's the same plan that's currently blocked in court as GOP state attorneys general are pushing to permanently stop it from being implemented.

"Every time something new comes out, I'm a nervous wreck," Hill told BI of news surrounding the fate of the SAVE plan.

"When can I start thinking about it being safe to retire? I'm getting old, and I'm tired, and I've already had one hip replaced," she added. "I want to be able to just breathe, but retiring and having to pay for student loans when I'm not even working anymore and paying most of my Social Security to student loans, it's ridiculous. It's extremely stressful. I feel like they're getting ready to pull the rug out from under us again."

After two separate groups of GOP state attorneys general filed lawsuits to block SAVE earlier this year, federal courts temporarily halted parts of the plan. The 10th Circuit later ruled some SAVE provisions could move forward, but most recently, the 8th Circuit blocked the plan in its entirety, pending a final decision.

One of the key arguments in the lawsuits is the cost of the plan to taxpayers. The case led by Missouri's attorney general cited an estimate from the University of Pennsylvania's Wharton School that found the SAVE plan could cost $475 billion over 10 years.

The lawsuits have thrown 8 million borrowers on SAVE, including Hill, into financial limbo. Hill said the uncertainty with her student loans is forcing her to push back her timeline to retire. She's a teacher and has loans because she went back to school in 2009 to get her teaching degree, which she funded through grants, scholarships, and student loans.

While she landed a job in her desired field, it wasn't easy for her to make around $300 monthly payments on the income-driven repayment plan due to her other expenses. The SAVE plan, however, brought her payments down to just over $120, and she's worried that if the lawsuits succeed, her payments will surge.

"I am scared they aren't hearing us," Hill said. "The Democratic Party, and I'm not a left leaner, but at least they're doing something about it. Republicans are scaring the crap out of me."
'It's just very frustrating'

When Hill was placed on the SAVE plan last summer, she felt immediate relief and felt that, for once, she could afford her student-loan payments.

The lower payments have allowed her to save up for a new car, and she doesn't have to worry about affording her medication or daily expenses.

"I don't have to worry about, 'Oh, do I buy medication? Or how can I skip my groceries this week?' There are repairs to the house that I'm able to do. I was able to get the roof replaced and things like that," Hill said. "Am I going to have enough gas to go to work? It's ridiculous the stress it just takes off in having that extra buffer."

That's why the lawsuits are making Hill rethink the party she supports: "It's just very frustrating.'"

"I don't understand what the Republicans are thinking," she said. "Why are we not investing in our people? I mean, that's our biggest commodity, our people. Invest in their education."

Trump has previously criticized Biden's student-loan forgiveness efforts. During a Wisconsin campaign rally in June, Trump said that Biden is "throwing money out the window" with his debt relief policies.

"This student-loan program, which is not even legal, I mean it's not even legal, and the students aren't buying it, by the way," Trump said, adding that debt relief is "vile" and an attempt to get "publicity for the election."

Republican lawmakers have also supported lawsuits to block the SAVE plan. Sens. Mitch McConnell and Bill Cassidy filed a brief to the Supreme Court accusing Biden of "sending the money out the door, never to be seen again, through a legally dubious program in the final stretch of his desperate reelection campaign."

The brief was filed before Biden dropped out of the presidential race, but with his endorsement of Vice President Kamala Harris, his debt relief efforts would likely continue should she win.

The Education Department has vowed to continue fighting for the SAVE plan in court. In the meantime, all enrolled SAVE borrowers have been placed on forbearance, during which they don't have to make payments, and interest will not accrue. However, the months on pause won't count toward forgiveness progress on Public Service Loan Forgiveness and income-driven repayment plans, even if borrowers continue to make payments.

As a teacher, Hill is also enrolled in PSLF and has a projected two years left until she qualifies for relief. In the meantime, she's hoping SAVE will survive so she can afford payments while saving for retirement.

"If the right continues to really push against the student-loan stuff, I will not vote right," Hill said. "I just won't."

Are you enrolled in the SAVE plan? Are your student-loan payments influencing how you will vote in the election? Share your story with this reporter at asheffey@businessinsider.com.

Would Kamala Harris’ student loan debt policies build on the Biden administration’s?

Gillian Brassil
Fri, July 26, 2024 


Reality Check is a Bee series holding officials and organizations accountable and shining a light on their decisions. Have a tip? Email realitycheck@sacbee.com.

Kamala Harris’ work as U.S. senator and California attorney general suggests that she’d build on this White House’s efforts to reduce student costs.

Two major Biden administration policies meant to lower federal student debt have been held up by Republican lawsuits. Its new income-driven repayment plan has been halted amid court battles and its sweeping forgiveness plan was tossed by the Supreme Court last year.

President Joe Biden’s administration has still canceled more federal student loan debt than any other White House.

As of this month, the administration has erased $168.5 billion in debt for 4.76 million borrowers through different avenues, including programs for public service workers, relief for students of defunct for-profit schools and fixes to income-driven repayment plans.

Vice President Harris, the likely 2024 Democratic presidential nominee after Biden departed from the race, touted White House efforts to waive student debt and warned Thursday that former President Donald Trump would stop them if elected.

“We see a future where every student has the support and the resources they need to thrive and a future where no teacher has to struggle with the burden of student loan debt,” Harris said in a speech before the American Federation of Teachers in Houston, Texas, on Thursday.

Neither the vice president’s office nor campaign responded to a series of questions for this story. The Trump campaign did not reply to a request for comment.
Debt cancellation

Biden was allegedly hesitant before announcing a sweeping student forgiveness plan for low and middle-income borrowers in 2022 — but Harris was a key advocate for it, a New York Times investigation reported.

The plan, blocked by the Supreme Court in 2023, was to cancel up to $20,000 in federal student loan debt for Pell Grant recipients and up to $10,000 for non-Pell Grant recipients if their individual annual income was under $125,000. Pell Grants are a form of federal aid for students from low-income backgrounds.

Harris had pushed a narrower form of student debt cancellation on the campaign trail during her brief 2020 presidential run. She proposed up to $20,000 in relief for Pell Grant recipients who had a small business in a “disadvantaged community” for three or more years.
Debt-free college

As a U.S. senator from California from 2017 to 2021, Harris backed a series of proposals to reduce college costs along with progressive lawmakers, including Sens. Bernie Sanders, I-Vt., and Elizabeth Warren, D-Mass.

Harris, 59, cosponsored Sanders’ College for All Act in 2017. The measure would have made community college free and wiped tuition and fees at four-year universities for families earning $125,000 or less per year.

In 2018, she supported broader legislation by Sen. Brian Schatz, D-Hawaii, to cover public higher education expenses not paid for by financial and family aid — the Debt-Free College Act.

“Almost all students understand the struggle of student loans. Enough,” Harris wrote on X, then known as Twitter, in March 2018. “It’s time we make college tuition-free once and for all.”


Harris led legislation cosponsored by Warren and late Sen. Dianne Feinstein, D-Calif., to develop grants to help colleges pay for student necessities, such as food, housing, health care and transportation.
Corinthian Colleges

As California attorney general from 2011 to 2017, Harris investigated for-profit colleges, leading to a $1.1 billion judgment against a now-defunct chain that she alleged defrauded students.

Her effort has been credited in helping force Corinthian Colleges to close its schools and file for bankruptcy in 2015. And it kick-started probes that led the U.S. Education Department to waive about $5.8 billion in loan debt for 560,000 former students in 2022, all remaining debt for those borrowers.

In 2013, Harris sued Corinthian and its subsidiaries, alleging they misrepresented job placement rates and students’ ability to transfer credits in its advertising and recruiting practices. She claimed the for-profit chain intentionally targeted low-income individuals through deceptive advertisements.

Corinthian issued a statement in 2013 saying Harris’ complaint was “a document built on a foundation of misquoted, deceptively excerpted and — at best — misunderstood materials.”

A San Francisco Superior Court judge sided with Harris in 2016, ruling that company misled students. Judge Curtis Karnow ordered that Corinthian pay $820 million in restitution to students and more than $350 million in penalties, amounting to about $1.1 billion.

Corinthian had filed for bankruptcy before then and had been facing other inquiries and legal action.

Harris and eight other attorneys general at the time petitioned the federal government to cancel Corinthian students’ loan debt, which led the Education Department to provide relief to some students who applied for it starting in 2015.

“Even though it was a victory, and all of that happened, it still didn’t provide financial relief to the students who had already been impacted,” Harris said at a Biden administration event in 2022.

The Biden administration announced it was wiping all remaining debt for these students in 2022.

“Because of your hard working and dedication, we’re where we are today. Also knowing that as a nation, we still have a lot more work to do on these issues,” she said.
Trump University

As attorney general, Harris did not take action against Trump University, which the former president founded in 2004. It shuttered in 2011 amid complaints and an investigations. The company, which was not an accredited college, offered courses in real estate, asset management, entrepreneurship and wealth creation.

“There probably are a lot of reasons for not bringing the case,” said Dan Morain, a veteran California politics reporter and author of biography “Kamala’s Way.”

In 2018, a federal court finalized a $25 million settlement for students in a class action who said the for-profit college had defrauded them.

Harris officials have previously been asked if and denied that Trump family donations were connected to the lacking action.

Trump and his daughter donated to Harris’ campaign for attorney general between 2011 and 2014, The Bee previously reported. Trump gave Harris $6,000 at the time and Ivanka gave her $2,000. Trump University had already closed and was facing legal action at the time of the donations.

“President Trump was a global businessman and knew how to play the game and win the game with corrupt politicians like Kamala Harris,” a Trump spokesman, Steven Cheung, told The New York Times and other news outlets this week about the donations.

A Harris spokesman told The Bee in 2019 that Harris donated the $6,000 to a non-profit that advocates for civil and human rights for Central Americans. She made the donation in 2015, the year Trump launched his presidential campaign, a year after she won her reelection for attorney general and as she was launching her run for the Senate.

Harris officials at the time said the donations had nothing to do with the lacking legal action. Morain also said he thought the connection was “silly.”

“It was a less compelling case than the case she ended up bringing against the for-profit university Corinthian, which resulted in a huge settlement,” Morain said in an interview this month. “Trump had a limited footprint in California.”

Typhoon Gaemi

Divers attempt to reach sunken Philippine oil tanker

By AFP
July 26, 2024

The coast guard has warned that if the entire cargo leaked it would be an 'environmental catastrophe' and the worst oil spill in the Philippine history - Copyright AFP Jam Sta Rosa

Divers will attempt Saturday to inspect the hull of a Philippine tanker carrying 1.4 million litres of industrial fuel oil that sank off Manila as authorities race to avert an ecological catastrophe, the coast guard said.

The MT Terra Nova sank in bad weather in the busy waterway early Thursday, killing one crew member and leaving the country potentially facing its worst oil spill disaster.

“The weather is still bad but that is their goal for today, to conduct diving operations to determine the position of the ship and to check if there is a leak,” coast guard spokesman Rear Admiral Armando Balilo told AFP.

If the inspection by divers from the coast guard and a private contractor is successful, the salvor is under instructions “to start the syphoning tomorrow if possible”, Balilo added.

The ship that will carry the recovered oil is on its way to the area, he said.

The coast guard has warned that if the entire cargo leaked it would be an “environmental catastrophe” and be the worst oil spill in the Philippine history.

So far the authorities said no leak has been detected from the industrial fuel oil cargo as the vessel rested on the sea floor under 34 metres (116 feet) of water.

However authorities have reported what appeared to be a “minimal” oil slick from diesel fuel used to power the tanker.

Oil containment booms have been deployed for what Balilo earlier described as “the worst case scenario” of the cargo leaking out.

The vessel sank nearly seven kilometres (four miles) from its origin in the port of Limay west of Manila. It was attempting to return to port after running into bad weather.

The incident occurred as heavy rains fuelled by Typhoon Gaemi and the seasonal monsoon lashed Manila and surrounding regions in recent days.

The state weather service said the monsoon had weakened by late Friday, giving the authorities a window of relative calm at sea to recover the cargo.

The coast guard estimates the extraction would take at least seven days.

The Philippines has struggled to contain serious oil spills in the past.

It took months to clean up after a tanker carrying 800,000 litres of industrial fuel oil sank off the central island of Mindoro last year, contaminating waters and beaches of the island and devastating the fishing and tourism industries.

Another tanker sank off the central island of Guimaras in 2006, spilling tens of thousands of gallons of oil that destroyed a marine reserve, ruined local fishing grounds and covered stretches of coastline in black sludge.

Typhoon Gaemi leaves sailors stranded as ‘unprecedented’ number of ships grounded near Taiwan

Stuti Mishra
Fri, July 26, 2024

Typhoon Gaemi leaves sailors stranded as ‘unprecedented’ number of ships grounded near Taiwan

Taiwan was struggling to rescue dozens of sailors off the southern coast after Typhoon Gaemi sank a freighter and grounded eight others in the Taiwan Strait.

At least 79 crew members were still awaiting rescue on eight freighters that were stranded, the Taiwanese coast guard said. But rough weather and rainfall were creating challenging conditions.

One crew member was found dead while four Myanmar nationals were rescued from a Tanzania-flagged freighter. The group detailed their ordeal of jumping into the sea holding each other in teams for survival amid rough conditions.

The ship had nine members on board. They said they separated into two groups, one of five and one of four, in order to jump into the sea and survive. Some of their colleagues watched helplessly as their life jackets were washed away.

One of the survivors said he had swum backwards to retrieve a waist bag containing his passport, before swimming “with all his life” to reach the shore, according to the BBC.

One of the crew members of sunken Tanzania flagged ship rescued in Taiwan (EPA)

Another burst out crying after calling his family as he informed his mother and his wife, who had assumed he had died, that he is alive.

The powerful typhoon swept through Taiwan on Thursday with gusts of up to 227kph (141mph) before moving towards China.

As Typhoon Gaemi barrelled across the Taiwan strait, it stranded an “unprecedented” number of ships in the sea for any other typhoon, according to Taiwan’s ocean affairs council minister Kuan Bi-ling, whose department runs the coast guard.

“Braving waves five-meters high ... our ships made it to as close as one nautical mile but still failed to get closer,” she said in a post on Facebook, adding authorities will continue the rescue efforts.

In Taiwan, the storm dumped over 1,800mm (70.8inches) rain in southern mountains since Tuesday and bringing flash flooding to several cities and towns that has largely receded.

Businesses and schools in most parts of southern Taiwan were shut for a third day.

The typhoon also injured more than 700 people and killed seven, and rescuers took nearly 1,000 people out of floodwater in inflatable boats.

Typhoon Gaemi lashes China after pounding Taiwan, Philippines

Updated Fri, July 26, 2024 

Waves in Ningde as Typhoon Gaemi approaches

BEIJING (Reuters) -Typhoon Gaemi pummelled towns on China's coastal Fujian province on Friday with heavy rains and strong winds as the most powerful storm to hit the country this year began its widely watched trek into the populous interior.

The storm has affected almost 630,000 people in China's Fujian so far, with almost half of them having to be relocated, Xinhua news agency reported. Earlier this week, it killed dozens of people as it swept through Taiwan and worsened seasonal rains in the Philippines.

Gaemi was packing winds of up to 100.8 kph (62.6 mph) near its centre, easing slightly from 118.8 kph logged on Thursday night when it landed in the Fujian city of Putian.


While Gaemi has been downgraded to a tropical storm because of slower wind speeds, its vast cloud-bands remain a significant flood risk, particularly to rivers in central China already elevated due to summer rains.

Hours ahead of the typhoon's arrival, the Standing Committee of the Communist Party's politburo, helmed by President Xi Jinping, held a special meeting on flood control and urged cadres across the country to protect lives.

Efforts must be made to prevent breaches of major rivers and the collapse of large and key medium-sized reservoirs, Xinhua quoted a readout of the meeting as saying.

Due to the typhoon, 72 townships across Fujian recorded accumulated precipitation exceeding 250 mm (9.8 inches), with the highest reaching 512.8 mm, local weather bureaus said.

By late Friday, Gaemi is expected to reach Jiangxi province, home to China's largest freshwater lake, Poyang.

Forecasters warned as many as 10 provinces could be affected, including Henan, a province with a population of over 100 million in central China.

Henan's meteorological bureau expects Gaemi to start ushering in rains on Friday night.

Into next week, Gaemi's impact is expected as far north as the provinces of Jilin and Liaoning, both of which are still grappling with overflowing rivers and waterlogged cities following a powerful cluster of summer storms a few days ago.

Scientists have warned that global warming is worsening tropical storms, making them less frequent but much more intense, according to a report published on Friday.

On Thursday, Gaemi flooded several Taiwanese cities and towns, injuring more than 700 people and killing seven as well as sinking a freighter off the island's coast.

Rescuers pulled nearly 1,000 people out of floodwater in inflatable boats, the Taiwan government said.

In the Philippines, the storm killed 32 people, with the capital Manila declaring a "state of calamity" after widespread flooding. A marine tanker carrying industrial fuel also sank in rough seas off the Philippines.

(Reporting by Ryan Woo in Beijing and Yimou Lee in Yilan, Taiwan; additional reporting by Mikhail Flores in Manila; editing by Miral Fahmy and Edwina Gibbs)




Death toll from Typhoon Gaemi rises to 33 in the Philippines

Fri, July 26, 2024 

People wade through floodwaters after strong monsoon rains. The Philippine government has declared a state of emergency in Manila after severe rains caused by the southwest monsoon and Typhoon Gaemi, resulting in significant flooding throughout the city and surrounding regions. Basilio Sepe/ZUMA Press Wire/dpa


The death toll from floods, landslides and other accidents caused by Typhoon Gaemi in the Philippines has risen to 33, police said on Friday, with eight people confirmed dead in Taiwan.

The victims in the Philippines include 11 people who died from drowning or electrocution in the capital Manila, which was struck by one of the worst floods in more than a decade.

In some areas, flood waters reached up to rooftops, forcing residents to evacuate and submerging vehicles.

Main roads were impassable at the height of the flooding on Wednesday, and almost half a million residents in metro Manila were without electricity.

Ten people died in four provinces north of the capital, including one crew member of an oil tanker that sank in Manila Bay off Limay town in Bataan province after being battered by huge waves.

The sinking of the oil tanker has triggered an oil spill, which the coastguard has been working to contain to avoid a major environmental crisis.

Police also recorded 12 fatalities in the provinces of Cavite, Laguna, Batangas and Rizal, mostly due to drowning and landslides.

Gaemi worsened monsoon rains which had been battering the Philippines since early July, causing floods and landslides in south-eastern provinces.

At least eight people were killed in weather-related accidents before Gaemi hit, the national disaster agency said.

More than 1.3 million people have been affected by the bad weather since July 11, with over 211,000 displaced from their homes, the agency said.

In Taiwan, which was also hit badly by Gaemi, the Central Emergency Operation Center (CEOC) said on Friday that the death toll had increased to eight.

Meanwhile, rescue work was continuing for six missing crew members of Tanzanian-flagged freighter Fu-Shun, which sank off the coast of Kaohsiung Harbor on Thursday.


At least 12 killed by mudslide in China as heavy rains from tropical storm Gaemi drench region

KEN MORITSUGU
Updated Sun, July 28, 2024 


Asia Typhoon
In this photo released by Xinhua News Agency, vehicles drive through a flood waters in Shenyang, northeastern China's Liaoning Province, July 26, 2024.

 (Wang Hongtao/Xinhua via AP)
ASSOCIATED PRESS


BEIJING (AP) — At least 12 people were killed after a mudslide hit a homestay house in a tourist area in southeastern China on Sunday as heavy rains from what remained of a tropical storm drenched the region, state media said.

Elsewhere in China, a delivery person on a scooter was killed Saturday after being hit by a falling tree in Shanghai, apparently because of storm-related winds, according to The Paper, a digital news outlet.

The deaths were the first in China that appear linked to Typhoon Gaemi, which weakened to a tropical storm after making landfall on Thursday. Before reaching China, the typhoon intensified monsoon rains in the Philippines, leaving at least 34 dead, and swept across the island of Taiwan, where the death toll has risen to 10, authorities said late Saturday.

The mudslide struck the homestay house about 8 a.m. and trapped 21 people in Yuelin village, which falls under the jurisdiction of Hengyang city in Hunan province, state broadcaster CCTV said in a series of online reports. About 30 centimeters (12 inches) of rain was recorded in the area over a 24-hour period.

Six injured people were rescued. The reports didn't say whether the injuries were serious. The owner of the house initially reported that 18 people were trapped, but a search and rescue team later determined that three more people were unaccounted for, CCTV said.

The one-story house offered food and accommodation near Hengshan, a mountain in a scenic area where tourists come on weekends to escape the summer heat, a report by The Paper said. The scenic areas had been closed starting Sunday because of the rains until further notice, even before the mudslide.

The CCTV reports said the mudslide was triggered by water rushing down the mountains from the rains. They didn’t mention Gaemi but the China Meteorological Administration said that heavy rain tied to the tropical storm hit southeastern parts of Hunan province on Saturday.

In Shanghai, a photo posted by The Paper showed a delivery scooter on its side mostly covered by leafy branches near the still-standing barren trunk of a tree. It said that winds from the storm were the suspected cause, and that the investigation was continuing.

The wide arc of the tropical storm also was bringing heavy rain about 2,000 kilometers (1,200 miles) away to China's northeast.

The Linjiang city government in Jilin province posted a notice on social media asking residents living below the third floor to move to higher places on Sunday as the Yalu River, which forms the border with North Korea, rose above the warning level.

In neighboring Liaoning province, hundreds of chemical and mining companies suspended operations from Saturday as a precautionary measure and more than 30,000 people had been evacuated, the official Xinhua News Agency said. Nearly 40 trains were suspended through Thursday for safety reasons after steady rain in recent days created hazards and damaged tracks.

Two more people were reported dead in Taiwan, raising the death toll to 10, the island's Central News Agency said, quoting the emergency operation center. Two others were missing, and 895 people were injured.

The latest victims were a man found in a drainage ditch and another man who died in a car accident.

More than 800 people remained in shelters in Taiwan as of Saturday night, and more than 5,000 households remained without power.

The typhoon caused nearly 1.7 billion New Taiwan dollars ($51.8 million) in damage to crops including bananas, guavas and pears; chicken and other livestock farming and oyster and other fisheries, the Central News Agency said, citing figures from the Ministry of Agriculture.

A cargo ship sunk off Taiwan's shore during the typhoon, killing the captain, while eight other ships ran aground.

Spill in South Louisiana bayou. 

Here's what we know.

Colin Campo, Houma Courier-Thibodaux Daily Comet
Sat, July 27, 2024 

Editor's note: This story has been updated for clarity.

An spill has been found in Bayou Lafourche near Raceland.

According to Bayou Lafourche Fresh Water Executive Director Dustin Rabalais, around 9 a.m. the district was alerted to a spill within the bayou around LA 90. Speaking on the phone, en route to the spill, the director said it is unknown if the spill is contained at this time. He said he has already been in touch with the water treatment facilities and there is no danger to the drinking water.

“That is indeed the case, we’re on scene, we’re trying to figure out the source and get it cleaned up,” Rabalais said. “We’ve already been in touch with the water districts and they are all aware.”

Crews examine an oil spill in Bayou Lafourche.

Rabalais said the district has been in touch with environmental cleanup groups and they are on their way to the location. The source of the spill is unknown at this time.

Lafourche Parish President Archie Chaisson is also on his way to the scene, and said the parish government would be putting out information about the spill.

This is a developing story and will be updated as more information is made available.

This article originally appeared on The Courier: Spill in South Louisiana Bayou. Here's what we know.

Life and death in the heat. What it feels like when Earth's temperatures soar to record highs

Seth Borenstein And Sam Metz
Sat, July 27, 2024 at 5:30 p.m. MDT·6 min read








The Associated Press

BENI MELLAL, Morocco (AP) — In the unrelenting heat of Morocco’s Middle Atlas, people were sleeping on rooftops. Hanna Ouhbour needed refuge too, but she was outside a hospital waiting for her diabetic cousin who was in a room without air conditioning.

On Wednesday, there were 21 heat-related deaths at Beni Mellal’s main hospital as temperatures spiked to 48.3 degrees (118.9 degrees Fahrenheit) in the region of 575,000 people, most lacking air conditioning.

“We don't have money and we don't have a choice,” said Ouhbour, a 31-year-old unemployed woman from Kasba Tadla, an even warmer city that some experts say is among the hottest on Earth.


“The majority of the deaths were among people suffering from chronic diseases and the elderly, as the high temperatures contributed to the deterioration of their health condition and led to their death,” Kamal Elyansli, the regional director of health, said in a statement.

This is life and death in the heat.

As the warming Earth sizzled through a week with four of the hottest days ever measured, the world focused on cold, hard numbers that showed the average daily temperature for the entire planet.

But the 17.16 degrees Celsius (62.8 degrees Fahrenheit) reading recorded on Monday doesn't convey how oppressively sticky any one particular place became at the peak of sunshine and humidity. The thermometer doesn't tell the story of warmth that just wouldn't go away at night so people could sleep.

The records are about statistics, keeping score. But people don't feel data. They feel the heat.

“We do not need any scientists to tell us what the temperature is outside as this is what our body tells us instantly,” said Humayun Saeed, a 35-year-old roadside fruit seller in Pakistan's cultural capital of Lahore.

Saeed had to go to the hospital twice in June because of heat stroke.

“The situation is much better now, as it was not easy to work in May and June because of the heat wave, but I have been avoiding the morning walk," Saeed said. "I may resume it in August when the temperature will go further down.”

The heat was making Delia, a 38-year-old pregnant woman standing outside a Bucharest, Romania, train station, feel even more uncomfortable. Daytime was so hot she was drowsy. With no air conditioning at night, she considered sleeping in her car like a friend had.

“I’ve really noticed a very big increase in temperatures. I think it was the same for everyone. I felt it even more because I am pregnant,” said Delia, who only provided her first name. “But I guess it wasn’t just me. Really everyone felt this.”

Self-described weather nerd Karin Bumbaco was in her element, but then it became just a little too much when Seattle had day after day of much warmer than normal heat.

“I love science. I love the weather. I have since I was a little kid,” said Bumbaco, the deputy state climatologist for Washington. “It's sort of fun to see daily records get broken. ... But in recent years just living through it and actually feeling the heat has become just more miserable on a day-to-day basis.”

“Like this recent stretch we've had. I wasn't sleeping very well. I don't have AC at my home,” Bumbaco said. “I was watching the thermostat every morning be a little warmer than the previous warm morning. It was just building up the heat in the house and I just couldn't wait for it to be over.”

For climate scientists around the world, what had been an academic exercise about climate change literally hit home.

“I’ve been analyzing these numbers from the cool of my office, but the heat has started to affect me as well, causing sleepless nights due to warmer urban temperatures,” said Roxy Mathew Koll, a climate scientist at the Indian Institute of Tropical Meteorology in Pune, Maharashtra, which normally has a relatively mild climate.

“My children return home from school during the peak hours exhausted,” Koll said. “Last month one of my colleagues’ mother died from heat stroke in north India.”

Philip Mote, a climate scientist and dean of the graduate school at Oregon State University, had moved in junior high to California's Central Valley and its triple digit summer heat.

“I pretty quickly figured I didn't like a hot dry climate,” Mote said. “And that's why I moved to the Northwest.”

For decades, Mote worked on climate issues from the comfort of Oregon, where people feared that with global warming the Northwest "would be the last nice place to live in the U.S. and everybody would move here and we'd have overpopulation.”

But the region was hit by nasty fires in 2020 and a deadly heat wave in 2021, causing some people to flee what was supposed to be a climate haven.

In the second week of July, the temperature hit 104 degrees (40 Celsius). As a member of a masters' rowing club, Mote practices on the water Tuesdays and Thursday evenings, but this week they decided to just float down the river in tubes.

In Boise, Idaho, tubing in the heat that has hovered between 99 and 108 degrees Fahrenheit (37 to 42 degrees Celsius) for 17 days has become so popular there's a 30-minute to an hour wait to get into the water, said John Tullius, general manager for Boise River Raft & Tube.

“I think it's been record numbers these last 10 days in a row,” Tullius said, adding that he worries about his outdoor workers, especially the physical toll on those who pick up rafts at the end of the trek.

He erected special shade structure for them, added more workers to ease the load and urges them to hydrate.

In Denver’s City Park, the swan-shaped pedal boat rental shop isn’t that busy because it’s beastly hot outside and those brave souls who do go out have to sit on hot fiberglass seats.

There’s not much shade for the workers, “but we do hide in our little shack,” said employee Dominic Prado, 23. “We also have a very strong fan in there that I like to raise my shirt over it just to cool down.”

___

Borenstein reported from Washington, Metz from Beni Mellal, Morocco. Munir Ahmed in Lahore, Pakistan, Nicolae Dumitrache in Bucharest, Romania, Rebecca Boone in Boise, Idaho, and Brittany Peterson in Denver contributed to this report.

___

Follow Seth Borenstein and Sam Metz on X at @borenbears and @metzsam.

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The Associated Press’ climate and environmental coverage receives financial support from multiple private foundations. AP is solely responsible for all content. Find AP’s standards for working with philanthropies, a list of supporters and funded coverage areas at AP.org.

By Seth Borenstein And Sam Metz, The Associated Press

'Monster' fires may have destroyed half of historic Canadian town

Nadine Yousif & Ana Faguy - BBC News, Toronto & Washington
Fri, July 26, 2024 


Huge, fast-moving wildfires have destroyed up to half of the historic Canadian town of Jasper, officials say, as firefighters try to save as many buildings as possible.

Entire streets have been levelled by the blazes in Alberta province, with video showing smouldering rubble where homes once stood.

Cooling temperatures brought some relief on Thursday, but park authorities said the fires were still out of control and further warm weather was forecast.

Meanwhile, there are hundreds of active blazes in neighbouring British Columbia, while fires are burning in western US states including California and Utah.

While no deaths have been reported, some 20,000 tourists and 5,000 residents have fled the mountainous area in Alberta province - a hugely popular tourist spot.

Some 36,000 hectares (89,000 acres) of land has so far been affected, Jasper National Park reported late on Thursday night local time - adding that neighbouring communities were not at risk.

It said that efforts to map the fires had been complicated by factors including strong winds, the extreme nature of the fire, and smoke.


[BBC]

During a news conference on Thursday, a tearful Alberta Premier Danielle Smith struggled at times to recount the scale of the damage, but said "potentially 30 to 50%" of buildings had been destroyed.

"There is no denying that this is the worst nightmare for any community," she said, adding that Jasper National Park had been "a source of pride" for many generations.

Ms Smith became visibly emotional as she described the beauty of the park and its significance to the community, which relies largely on tourism. Some 2.5 million people visit the park, and nearby Banff National Park, each year.

Rail, phone and power services in the area have been affected, CBC News reported.

Karyn Decore, the owner of the Maligne Lodge in Jasper, was on holiday when she learned her hotel had burned down. On Wednesday night, she received a photograph of the building in flames.

"I was horrified and devastated when I saw that photo," she told the BBC. "I think it's going to take a couple of days for the shock to wear down."

"It's really hard for everyone to comprehend that we lost one of our properties," she said, adding that she intended to rebuild the lodge.

Jasper has been a popular tourist resort for decades (file image) [Tourism Jasper ]

BBC journalist Wendy Hurrell was in Jasper National Park when the fires began to burn on Monday. She drove through the night with her husband and daughter in a rush to leave town.

"The storm was ferocious - the skies went dark red and there were whipping winds, fierce rain and lightning," she said.

"We are some of the last travellers to see Jasper in its full beauty - it will be a very long time before it will recover. It's utterly devastating for them all and my heart is breaking."

Hundreds of firefighters from around the world have been deployed to help with the response, but officials warn the extent of the damage is still emerging. The focus on Thursday, they said, was on containing the towering flames which engulfed the town from two sides.

Pierre Martel, director for the national fire management programme at Parks Canada, said the fire was started by a lightning storm and escalated late on Wednesday as it was fanned by powerful winds.

"It [was] just a monster at that point," Mr Martel said. "There are no tools we have in our tool box to deal with it."

The flames reached 100m (328ft) high in some places, covering "an inordinate amount of space in a very little amount of time", one official said.

Some 36,000 hectares (89,000 acres) of land has so far been affected, Jasper National Park reported [BBC]

Mike Ellis, Alberta's minister for public safety, said the fire was 5km (3 miles) outside of Jasper when it was pushed by the winds to the town in "less than 30 minutes".

"Any firefighter will tell you there is little to nothing you can do when you have a wall of flames coming at you like that," he said.

"Nobody anticipated that fire to come so fast, so large and so quickly."

Justin Trudeau, Canada's prime minister, thanked the emergency services for their response to the wildfires.

"As the heartb

reaking images from Jasper emerge, I want to thank the brave first responders who are in Alberta right now, fighting to save every home and every community they can," he said.

This marks another year of difficult fire conditions for the province. Last year, a record 2.2 million hectares burned in Alberta between 1 March and 31 October.
Other parts of western Canada and the US hit by fires

In British Columbia, the province neighbouring Alberta to the west, more than 400 wildfires have been burning and dozens of evacuation orders have been issued.

In the US, more than 3,000 people have been forced to flee their homes in the state of California due to the Park Fire, which continues to rage out of control.

A man has been arrested in connection with the blaze, the California Department of Forestry and Fire Protection, also known as Cal Fire, said.

The states of Oregon, Montana and Utah also continue to deal with wildfires.

The overall number of fires has decreased around the world over the last two decades.

But researchers say climate change could bring more lightning to forests in northern reaches of the globe, increasing the risk of wildfires.

With additional reporting from Eloise Alanna and Ottilie Mitchell

How is climate change linked to extreme weather?

Why is the world getting warmer?

Fire numbers fall in B.C. as blaze near Golden destroys homes, spurs evacuation

Brieanna Charlebois and Chuck Chiang
Thu, July 25, 2024 


Three employees at Canadian Timberframes near Golden, B.C., had no warning when a nearby wildfire jumped the Columbia River and "barrelled through" nearby homes, the company's co-owner said.

"The fire was out of control. The winds changed. It came so fast," Stephanie Bowes said in an interview on Thursday.

"We weren't even in part of the evacuation order," she noted, although the order did come shortly after as the employees were helping to fight the fire.

The Town of Golden, B.C., confirmed Thursday afternoon about six homes were lost in the fire burning south of the community, but said "assessments are still underway to determine the extent of the damage."

It said in an earlier social media post that the blaze, known as the Dogtooth Forest Service Road fire, had spread north, but rain and a northern wind were expected to help the fire fight.

The BC Wildfire Service said that a trend of cooler weather across much of the province had also resulted in a dip in the number of fires burning and allowed crews an opportunity to make progress on some of the approximately 420 active blazes.

It's the first time fire numbers have dropped in weeks.

However, the service said the fires of note — those that pose a threat to people or property or are highly visible — had increased to five, with the addition of the Dogtooth fire.

The BC Wildfire Service said Thursday afternoon that the blaze had grown from 1.33 square kilometres in size to 54.5 square kilometres, although the town said most of that growth happened on Wednesday.

"No injuries or loss of life have been reported for residents or incident responders," the town said.

Bowes said she and her husband, with whom she owns the timber-framed homes business, were at their cottage in Anglemont, B.C., about 300 kilometres away, when their workers said the blaze had "engulfed" trees around the work site on Wednesday.

Her husband immediately rushed back.

She said the business remained intact thanks to its cement retaining walls and the "tireless" work of wildfire crews.

"The fire is still out of control, but it seems to be in control around our property. There's just smouldering fires that they're continuously putting out throughout the property," she said, noting light rains and wind had brought some reprieve Thursday.

"I'm just so very thankful and grateful that we have been able to come out of this where a lot of houses and homes and properties have not and my heart goes out to everybody."

The Town of Golden's website said authorities were focused on "saving as many structures as possible" from the Dogtooth fire, which prompted evacuation orders on Wednesday for properties along the Columbia River as it runs beside Highway 95.

In an update Thursday afternoon, the town said the evacuation order for the properties on the east side of the highway was rescinded and replaced with an alert. More than 1,000 properties remained on alert, while 28 properties on the west side of the river remained on evacuation order.

The update also said Highway 95 had reopened, but access to the areas under evacuation order would be restricted.

Despite the improved weather, about 230 fires continue to burn out of control in the province, including a cluster in southeastern B.C., a region that has seen thousands of lightning strikes in a series of thunderstorms. The service said that region continues to be warm and dry.

In central and northern B.C., the wildfire service said rain and a break from warmer-than-usual weather are providing a much-needed respite.

The service said that in the past week at least 263 fires had been declared out, and at least 124 brought under control.

The cooler weather brought highs in the low to mid-20s in areas including Kamloops, Kelowna and Lytton, where temperatures surpassed 40 C just days ago.

Temperatures in the northern Interior, including Prince George and Williams Lake, did not get above the mid-teens.

B.C. firefighters had been battling a spike in wildfires since the weekend, when dry weather and a heat wave were followed by tens of thousands of lightning strikes. There were fewer than 100 fires burning on July 8.

Among the most severe wildfires in the province is the 225-square-kilometre Shetland Creek blaze near Spences Bridge, which has destroyed about 20 structures in the Venables Valley, including at least six homes.

But the Village of Ashcroft said in a notice that it had rescinded its evacuation alert for all properties in the area.

Another fire of note is the four-square-kilometre Aylwin Creek blaze south of Silverton in the Central Kootenay region, which has triggered an evacuation order for the entire village along with 17 nearby properties.

A few kilometres to the north, a further 16 properties have been ordered evacuated outside the community of New Denver due to the Wilson Creek wildfire.

The Regional District of Central Kootenay has also upgraded an evacuation alert to an order for the Argenta and Johnsons Landing areas due to the Argenta Creek blaze. The order spans 191 properties on the northeast shore of Kootenay Lake.

On Vancouver Island, the Old Man Lake wildfire burns out of control about nine kilometres north of Sooke.

That fire, at about 1.7 square kilometres in size, has seen some growth, but the spread has been "away from any structures or critical infrastructure," Julia Caranci with the Coastal Fire Centre said on an updated post on YouTube.

The Capital Regional District says the fire is burning a few kilometres south of the Sooke Lake Reservoir, which is part of the water supply for about 350,000 people in Greater Victoria.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published July 25, 2024.

Brieanna Charlebois and Chuck Chiang, The Canadian Press

POSTMODERN COLD WAR 2.0

Chinese and Russian bombers patrolling off Alaska raise concerns about growing military cooperation

Lolita C. Baldor And Didi Tang
Thu, July 25, 2024 
The Associated Press

WASHINGTON (AP) — Russian and Chinese bombers flew together for the first time in international airspace off the coast of Alaska, in a new show of expanding military cooperation that U.S. Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin said Thursday raises concerns.

The flights Wednesday were not seen as a threat, and the bombers were tracked and intercepted by U.S. and Canadian fighter jets. But it was the first time that Chinese bomber aircraft have flown within the Alaskan Air Defense Identification Zone. And it was the first time Chinese and Russian aircraft have taken off from the same base in northeast Russia.

“This is a relationship that we have been concerned about throughout — mostly because we’re concerned about China providing support to Russia’s illegal and unnecessary war in Ukraine," Austin told reporters.


The North American Aerospace Defense Command, or NORAD, detected, tracked and intercepted the two Russian Tupolev Tu-95 long-range bombers and the two Chinese H-6 bombers. The aircraft, said Austin, didn't enter U.S. airspace and only got within about 200 miles (320 kilometers) of the coast.

They were, however, within the ADIZ, which begins where sovereign airspace ends, and aircraft must be easily identifiable and file flight plans for authorization in order to meet national security requirements.

China and Russia both acknowledged what they called a joint patrol over the Bering Sea, which divides Russia and Alaska.

Their growing military relationship has triggered concerns both among NATO allies and with nations in the Asia-Pacific. NATO allies have called China a “decisive enabler” of Russia’s war against Ukraine through its “no-limits partnership” with Russia and its large-scale support for Russia’s defense industrial base.

The allies issues a sternly worded statement, approved by the 32 members at their summit in Washington earlier this month.

The Russian Defense Ministry said the patrol also flew over the Chukchi Sea, which is on the north side of the Bering Strait, and that the exercises lasted more than five hours.

The joint patrol tested and improved coordination between the two air forces, said Zhang Xiaogang, a spokesperson for China’s Defense Ministry. He said it was the eighth joint strategic air patrol since 2019. He declined to comment when asked if it was the first such patrol over the Bering Sea.

While Russia’s military has long been active in the north Pacific, China has emerged as a new actor in recent years as its growing navy and air force expand their presence farther from the country’s shores.

On Chinese state media, the maneuver was called “a great leap forward in the Chinese Air Force’s actual combat training capabilities,” according to Wang Mingzhi, Chinese military expert interviewed on state broadcaster CCTV. Wang cited the fact that the mission was far away from ground support as well as in unfamiliar territory, saying that it showed support's ability to operate effectively across long-range missions.

Shen Yi, a professor of international politics at Fudan University, wrote in his column that the Chinese flights were to showcase the country's deterrence, and had symbolic significance in the U.S.-China rivalry.

“China’s boosting its capabilities to carry out effective strategic gaming with the United States and to maintain strategic stability,” Shen wrote. “As this system continuously improves, it can effectively deter the U.S.”

A photo released by the Russian Defense Ministry showed a Russian Su-30 fighter jet escorting a Chinese bomber. Another photo posted online by the military channel of China's state broadcaster CCTV showed Russian and Chinese long-winged bombers flying in parallel formation against mostly blue skies.

The Japanese military has grown increasingly concerned about joint China-Russia drills and the potential threat they pose to the security of Japan and the region.

A fleet of Russian and Chinese warplanes including Tu-95s and H-6s was seen flying together last December over the waters between Japan and Korea, Japan's Defense Ministry said. At the time, China's Defense Ministry called it the seventh joint strategic air patrol with Russia.

Chinese naval ships have showed up in international waters near Alaska, most recently in mid-July when the Coast Guard spotted four ships in the U.S. Exclusive Economic Zone, which extends 200 nautical miles (370 kilometers) from the shore.

Zhang described the naval activity as routine combat readiness training and said that China would continue to conduct far-seas training to improve the capabilities of its troops.

——

AP writer Huizhong Wu contributed to this report from Bangkok.

Lolita C. Baldor And Didi Tang, The Associated Press

PHOTO ESSAY

Gaza war protesters hold a 'die-in' near the White House as Netanyahu meets with Biden, Harris

ASHRAF KHALIL and OLLA MOKHTAR

Updated Thu, July 25, 2024 

WASHINGTON (AP) — Protesters against the Gaza war held a “die-in” across from Lafayette Park and the White House on Thursday as President Joe Biden met with Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu.

The protesters poured red liquid onto the street, saying it symbolized the blood of those killed in Gaza. They chanted, “Arrest Netanyahu,” and brought in an effigy of Netanyahu with blood on its hands and wearing an orange jumpsuit. The jumpsuit reads, “Wanted for crimes against humanity.”

More than 39,000 people have died in Gaza since the start of the war. About 1,200 were killed in Israel during the Oct. 7 Hamas attack that started the war, and dozens of Israeli hostages remain in Hamas captivity.

In an address to Congress on Wednesday, Netanyahu defended Israel’s conduct during the war, as thousands of demonstrators massed near the Capitol, marching through city streets carrying Palestinian flags and calling for Netanyahu’s arrest.

Outside Washington’s Union Station, protesters removed American flags and hoisted Palestinian ones in their place to massive cheers in the crowd. They sprayed graffiti on a monument to Christopher Columbus.

In a statement Thursday, Vice President Kamala Harris, the likely Democratic presidential nominee, spoke strongly about the protesters’ actions.

“Pro-Hamas graffiti and rhetoric is abhorrent, and we must not tolerate it in our nation,” she said. “I condemn the burning of the American flag. That flag is a symbol of our highest ideals as a nation and represents the promise of America. It should never be desecrated in that way.”

The number of protesters Thursday was significantly smaller than the day before.

Hazami Barmada, who described herself as a grassroots activist, spoke through a megaphone of Biden’s decision not to see reelection and to pass the baton to Harris.

“Biden did not voluntarily leave the race, Joe Biden was pushed out of the race,” she said. “And Kamala Harris still needs to prove her humanity” before earning the trust of pro-Palestinian voters.

“I’m not going to give you my vote until you show you share the ideals that the Democratic Party is supposed to believe in,” she said.

At one point, a young man with an Israeli flag draped over his shoulders walked into the middle of the protest circle and posed for the journalists’ cameras as the crowd jeered.

Police worked to keep the two sides apart.

As police led the man away — he wasn’t detained — Barmada shouted, “See, they even want to occupy our protests. Even our land isn’t enough!”

As police cleared the way, the protesters later marched through city streets toward the National Mall.

Demonstrators pass the White House during a protest against the visit of Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu to the White House, Thursday, July 25, 2024, in Washington. (AP Photo/Mike Stewart)
ASSOCIATED PRESS

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COLD WAR 2.0

In a show of growing ties, Russian warships make a new visit to Cuban waters

Sat, July 27, 2024 








In a show of growing ties, Russian warships make a new visit to Cuban waters

The Associated Press

HAVANA (AP) — Three Russian warships arrived in Cuban waters on Saturday, Moscow's second such maritime voyage in as many months in a reflection of deepening ties between Russia and Cuba.

The naval group, consisting of a training ship, patrol frigate and refueling tanker, are expected to remain docked in Cuba's port of Havana until July 30. The arrival of the vessels comes mere weeks after another squadron of Russian warships, including a powerful nuclear-powered submarine, visited Havana as part of planned military exercises last month.

American officials closely tracked the mid-June military exercises, saying that the four-vessel group posed no real threat. At the time, experts described the warships' Caribbean tour as a symbolic show of strength in response to continued U.S. and Western support for Ukraine.

Cuban defense officials announced the latest port call earlier this week, calling the arrival of the Russian warships a “historical practice” and show of “friendship and collaboration.” But neither government elaborated on the purpose of this latest deployment.

Cuba greeted the Baltic fleet on Saturday with a booming cannon salute. The docking of the flotilla has sparked a flurry of excitement among the general public, with Cubans strolling the port avenue to get a better glimpse of the warships Saturday and authorities saying interested visitors would be admitted on board the Russian training ship, called Smolniy, on Sunday and Monday.

“It’s a friendly thing. A bond between Russia and the Cubans,” said 29-year-old onlooker Maydelis Perez, pointing the hulking warships out to her three children. “I’m taking a family outing.”

Russia is a longtime ally of Venezuela and Cuba, and its warships and aircraft have periodically made forays into the Caribbean and docked in Havana. Though Cuba is not a key player in Russian foreign policy, experts say that Russia sees Cuba — with its port less than 100 miles (160 km) from Florida — as strategically important given its continued clout among developing nations.

Cuba and Russia — Cold War allies now both under severe U.S. sanctions — have strengthened their political and economic ties in recent years, particularly as Moscow aims to boost diplomatic support for its war in Ukraine and Havana seeks whatever economic assistance it can get.

Cuba has consistently abstained on U.N. resolutions on the invasion of Ukraine and avoided criticism of Moscow's war. Russia has sold significant volumes of oil to Cuba, which has struggled with regular power outages under Washington's economic embargo.

The Associated Press

THE LAST STALINIST STATE

What Vietnam's leadership change could mean for Beijing, and the South China Sea dispute

LONG READ

South China Morning Post
Fri, July 26, 2024 

China's ties with Vietnam are expected to remain largely stable, observers say, even as uncertainty looms in Hanoi following the death of long-serving leader Nguyen Phu Trong.

Trong, 80, who died last week after a long unspecified illness, has left a mixed political and economic legacy after overseeing Vietnam's rapid economic growth and a "blazing furnace" crackdown on corruption to consolidate the Communist Party's power.

But observers were generally positive about Hanoi's pragmatic "bamboo diplomacy" under Trong's watch - a delicate balancing act between China and the United States amid a deepening rift with its northern neighbour in the South China Sea.

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Paying tribute in a rare visit to Vietnam's embassy in Beijing on Saturday, Chinese President Xi Jinping spoke of their "deep camaraderie" and praised Trong's "outstanding contribution" to ties between the two countries and their ruling parties.

The Communist Party of China also sent a condolence message hours after Trong's death was announced, calling him "a good comrade, a good brother and a good friend". China's No 4 official, Wang Huning, will lead a delegation to Vietnam to attend Nguyen's state funeral on Friday.

Chinese President Xi Jinping (centre) visits the Vietnamese embassy in Beijing on Saturday to mourn the death of Nguyen Phu Trong. Photo: Xinhua alt=Chinese President Xi Jinping (centre) visits the Vietnamese embassy in Beijing on Saturday to mourn the death of Nguyen Phu Trong. Photo: Xinhua>

Hanoi emphasised the importance of its relations with Beijing, with its ambassador to China Pham Sao Mai pledging to "adhere to the strategic choice and top priority of developing friendly cooperation with China", according to official news agency Xinhua.

Zhang Mingliang, a Southeast Asian affairs specialist at Jinan University in Guangzhou, said Xi's embassy visit showed Beijing was relatively satisfied with the development of bilateral ties in the Trong era.

"Compared with ties during the oil rig crisis in 2014 and [former US president Donald] Trump's state visit to Vietnam in 2017, Sino-Vietnamese relations have shown clear improvement, marked by Hanoi's embrace of the concept of a 'community of shared destiny' last year at Beijing's request," he said.

"And compared with rancorous tensions with the Philippines in the South China Sea, Vietnam and China have managed to get along without hyping up their deep-seated differences on territorial issues."

Ties between the communist neighbours had been turbulent in past decades, with clashes over the disputed Paracel Islands in the 1970s and a brief but bloody border war in 1979.

Zhang noted that relations also hit a low point during a 2014 diplomatic stand-off over China's deployment of a deepwater oil rig near the Paracels, an incident widely seen as a turning point in Hanoi's ties with Washington.

"Under Trong's stewardship, Vietnam has managed to forge rather friendly ties with China, at least superficially. But at the same time, Vietnam's ties with the US and Russia have also been elevated to unprecedented heights," Zhang said.

"This is all aimed at keeping China in check so that Vietnam can have a favourable international environment and relatively steady ties with China that are largely under Hanoi's control," he added. "It may seem like mission impossible but Trong's Vietnam managed to hedge its bets with the major powers."

Arguably Vietnam's most influential leader since its founding revolutionary Ho Chi Minh, Trong became the ruling party's general secretary in 2011 and secured a precedent-breaking third five-year term in 2021. He also served as Vietnam's president from 2018 to 2020.

As speculation swirled about his declining health, Trong visited Beijing in October 2022 - his first overseas trip after having a stroke in 2019 - becoming the first foreign leader to meet Xi after he secured his own third term.

Over the past 10 months, Trong hosted both Xi and US President Joe Biden in Hanoi and met Russian President Vladimir Putin in June, despite his frailty. Hanoi has also elevated Japan, India, South Korea and Australia to its top-tier comprehensive strategic partners.

Nguyen Phu Trong was seen as one of the country's most powerful leaders. Photo: AFP alt=Nguyen Phu Trong was seen as one of the country's most powerful leaders. Photo: AFP>

Carl Thayer, emeritus professor at the University of New South Wales in Australia, said Trong would be remembered for his trips to the US and Japan in 2015, which set the foundations for closer ties with the West.

Thayer expected Hanoi's ties with Beijing to remain "stable and amicable" because Vietnam would not abandon its foreign policy of "peace, cooperation and development".

"China plays a special role in Vietnam's foreign relations. It was Vietnam's first comprehensive strategic partner and it is the only major power to be called a comprehensive strategic cooperative partner," he said.

Analysts also pointed to Trong's personal bond with Xi and ties between the two communist parties, which have over the years acted as a ballast in the love-hate relationship between Hanoi and Beijing.

"Although Vietnam broadened its diplomacy and improved ties with the US, I think that Trong was able to assuage Beijing that Vietnam really was neutral and independent and improved ties with Washington would not come at the expense of Beijing," said Zachary Abuza, a Southeast Asia expert and professor at the National War College in Washington.

"This was possible because of Trong's committed communist ideology. He viewed the world very much the way Xi Jinping does."

Abuza also noted China's party-to-party channels with Vietnam that ensured a constant stream of communication between senior-level officials - a channel unavailable to the US.

According to Nguyen Khac Giang, an analyst at Singapore's ISEAS-Yusof Ishak Institute, there was a close relationship between Trong and Xi due to their shared commitments to Marxism-Leninism.

"This helped stabilise bilateral relations during times of tension, particularly over maritime disputes in the South China Sea," he said. "Trong also had a very favourable view on China and admired the Chinese Communist Party, although he was pragmatic in dealing with them on many thorny issues."

Giang said that while Trong's potential successors - such as President To Lam - do not have this bond with Xi, "I don't think this will greatly affect Hanoi's ability to maintain good relations with China as the party-to-party link remains strong".

He said the bamboo diplomacy approach was "working well" and Trong's successor was unlikely to change it or his key policies, at least in the medium term "to prove their legitimacy as his rightful heir".


Vietnamese President To Lam has temporarily taken over Trong's duties. Photo: via Reuters alt=Vietnamese President To Lam has temporarily taken over Trong's duties. Photo: via Reuters>

A day before he died, Trong's duties were temporarily assigned to Lam. The 66-year-old, who became president in May, was previously Vietnam's public security minister, overseeing the anti-corruption drive. That campaign has ensnared 40 members of the party's Central Committee and dozens of military and police generals since 2016.

While the crackdown has been popular with the public, the removal of six out of 18 members of the Politburo since December 2022 - including three of Vietnam's top five leaders since March - has raised concerns about factional infighting amid fears of a succession crisis.

Despite the political turmoil, Abuza said he expected "absolutely no change" in Vietnam's foreign policy, with Hanoi remaining "studiously neutral" - with deep economic ties to both China and the US and its allies.

But the new leader could look to make changes on the economic front.

"Like in China, where Xi Jinping has reasserted control at the expense of economic growth, Vietnam did that under Trong, though to a lesser extent," Abuza said.

"I think the next general secretary will be more pragmatic. Economic growth is the key to the party's legitimacy. But I expect there to be few changes before the 14th party congress in January 2026. The leadership is consumed with preparations for the party congress and is more or less in a lame-duck session."

Thayer warned there were limits to personal diplomacy between Chinese and Vietnamese leaders when it came to the South China Sea dispute.

"Personal relationships are important in relations between states ... but they are not sufficient - structure matters," he said, noting the Steering Committee for Bilateral Relations set up in 2008 that allows senior officials to meet on a regular basis.

He said China refused to respond to nearly 40 hotline calls from Vietnam over several months during the 2014 crisis, despite the personal ties between leaders.

"China only agreed to accept a special envoy from Trong when it learned that angry Vietnamese officials were calling for a special meeting of the Central Committee to exit China's orbit," he said.

Thayer said Vietnam's protest over China sending a hospital ship to the Paracels in May and its move last week to file a claim with the UN for an extended continental shelf in the South China Sea were the "new normal".

Zhang from Jinan University said the maritime dispute remained one of the biggest variables in bilateral relations.

He said Hanoi's request to extend the continental shelf beyond the current 200 nautical miles - following a similar move by Manila last month - was likely done under Lam's watch.

"The timing is intriguing - it was probably aimed at ... demonstrating a tough position on China for the domestic audience while also trying to increase Lam's bargaining power vis-a-vis China," Zhang said.

"It showed that Lam, on the one hand, will stick with Trong's approach in dealing with major powers ... but on the other hand there will be differences, variations and innovative steps," he said. "While bilateral ties are at a high point ... Vietnam is unlikely to make major compromises with China."

Meanwhile, Vietnam has accelerated expansion of its outposts in the contested Spratly Islands over the last six months, according to a June report by the Centre for Strategic and International Studies' Asia Maritime Transparency Initiative.

It said Vietnam's overall dredging and landfill in disputed areas of the South China Sea was now roughly half of China's total of 1,880 hectares (4,650 acres). The total was less than one-tenth of China's just three years ago.
"It's just a matter of how long China will put up with Vietnam's island-building efforts in the South China Sea," Zhang said.


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