Friday, August 02, 2024

Massive protests erupt again over disputed Venezuelan elections – but they look different this time

NO THEY DON'T

Rebecca Hanson, University of Florida and Verónica Zubillaga, Simón Bolívar University
Wed, July 31, 2024 
 THE CONVERSATION

Demonstrators protest against Nicolás Maduro's government in Caracas on July 29, 2024. Yuri Cortez/AFP via Getty Images

Post-election protests are far from uncommon in Venezuela. In 2018, people took to the streets to contest President Nicolás Maduro’s reelection; they did so again in 2019 when the Venezuelan opposition proclaimed National Assembly representative Juan Guaidó as interim president in defiance of a vote they said was rigged.

It isn’t surprising, then, that there have been widespread demonstrations in the country after Maduro claimed victory again, this time over challenger Edmundo González in the disputed election held July 28, 2024.

Many in the country had viewed the vote as a chance to avoid six more years of “Chavismo” – a political project Maduro inherited from former president and left-wing populist Hugo Chávez. Since 2013, Maduro has led the country while it has faced a severe economic crisis, resulting from a combination of falling oil prices, corruption and mismanagement, and international sanctions. The crisis has resulted in massive inflation and food shortages, with the majority of the population facing the choice of living in poverty or leaving the country.

But the current protests – sparked by the disputed election results but fomented by years of economic crisis – look different. From our analysis of news reports, social media and the protests themselves, it appears they involve a wider segment of society than in the past, and include many poor and working-class Venezuelans – the very groups from which Chavismo has traditionally drawn support.

The big question now is whether this more diverse base of protesters will have any impact, or, as has happened in the past, Maduro will be able to ride out the post-election unrest by using suppressive tactics.
Disputed result

The nature of Maduro’s claimed victory meant that protests were always likely.

The fairness of the elections had been called into question for months leading up to the actual vote due to government interference, such as the disqualification of Maria Corina Machado – the opposition’s de facto leader – and the arrest of campaign workers and activists.

Opposition leader Maria Corina Machado and presidential candidate Edmundo Gonzalez. Alfredo Lasry R/Getty Images

While in the past the opposition has been quick to call for a boycott of the polls, Machado and her replacement candidate, González, remained committed to the electoral path this time.

Venezuela’s Electoral Council released the results shortly after midnight on July 29, indicating that Maduro won with 51.2% of the vote, while González received 44.2%. This contrasted with exit polls and documentation the opposition had collected from around 40% of voting centers that seemed to show González winning with 70% of the vote.

The opposition immediately called the results into question, claiming that they had not been verified. International observers likewise cast doubt on the result’s validity.

The Carter Center, which has provided international observation of elections in Venezuela for years, released a statement saying the presidential election could not be considered democratic, adding that the vote “did not meet international standards of electoral integrity at any of its stages and violated numerous provisions of its own national laws.”

The statement continued that the election had taken place in “an environment of restricted freedoms for political actors, civil society organizations and the media” and that there had been “a clear bias in favor of the incumbent.”

Actions taken by Maduro’s government have further fueled speculations. According to the opposition, on the night of the election, documents used by citizen observers to verify results were not handed over in most voting centers. According to Venezuelan journalist Eugenio Martínez, paper counts were handed over in only half of the country’s 30,026 voting centers.

The government has yet to publish voting tallies that could be used to verify or debunk either side’s claim to victory. Leaders from across the region, including Chilean President Gabriel Boric, the Biden administration and Brazilian President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva, have since called on Maduro to release the full results.
Pots-and-pans protest

Protests against this lack of transparency began the day after the election and have continued. While such mobilization against the government has become a feature of Chavista Venezuela, the current protests are notable for the range of people coming out onto the streets.

Middle- and upper-class Venezuelans have often turned out en masse hoping to remove Maduro from office, sometimes encouraged by radical opposition voices urging undemocratic means to do so. Such opposition has been fueled by a multiplicity of factors, including the government’s clear turn toward authoritarianism and maneuvers to stay in power that have eroded democratic institutions.

But this round of protests has been characterized by mass participation from low-income and working-class people, too. While protests involving Venezuelans did break out across poorer neighborhoods in 2019, they were smaller and less sustained than the ones seen in recent days.

Videos of residents in low-income areas like Petare, Catia, Valles del Tuy and other historical strongholds of Chavismo have been shared across social media, with residents banging pots, burning tires and marching in the streets.

“Cacerolazos” – a traditional protest practice that involves banging pots and pans together – have even been heard throughout the former Chavista bastion that houses the Cuartel de la Montaña, where the mausoleum of Chávez – who died in office in 2013 – is located.

Elsewhere, statues of Chávez and posters of Maduro have been torn down and pummeled amid the outrage over what is perceived as blatant manipulation that crossed a threshold.

“They went too far” is a refrain that has been heard among protesters since the election.

While media outlets have pointed to protests in the barrios – the term used for urban, low-income neighborhoods in Venezuela – that range from spontaneous to slightly more organized, the government has written off the demonstrations as coordinated events staged by the “fascist right” and funded by the United States.
Offering an alternative

Maduro’s refusal to recognize that people who used to back him are now protesting against him reveals the vast distance that has opened between Venezuela’s Chavista government and its traditional base.

To be sure, protests in low-income neighborhoods should not be conflated with committed support for the opposition. Indeed, for years we’ve observed that people in Venezuela’s barrios distrust and are disillusioned with both the government and the opposition.

But these protests suggest that disgust with the current political system and outrage over suspected electoral fraud are now driving that discontent.

The protests are a response to years of crisis, corruption, fiscal irresponsibility and shortages, all of which have led to families being torn apart. An estimated 7.7 million Venezuelans have left the country to escape these problems. The issues affect everyone in Venezuela, but are particularly devastating for low-income people.

At the same time, many Venezuelans have felt more hopeful due to Machado’s rising popularity. After spending significant time campaigning in rural and working-class communities, she and González seemed to offer an alternative to the current situation.
Maduro’s response

The question now is whether this change in the protesters’ demographics will make a difference.

The Maduro government has signaled that it will remain inflexible in the face of widespread demonstrations, taking whatever actions necessary to stay in power. Still, while unlikely, protests in low-income neighborhoods could convince certain factions within the government that Chavismo has lost the support of the people it claims to represent.

Pressure from within the government, combined with objections from regional leaders, could perhaps influence the political calculations of Maduro.

But past experience points to a different response. After waves of protests in 2017 and 2019, Maduro turned to extreme repression by state security forces and nonstate armed groups – known as “colectivos” – whose members are loyal to the government and have much to lose if there is a regime change. Increasingly, the government has unleashed massive lethal violence in low-income neighborhoods when it has felt threatened. Much of this repression, consisting of police and military raids, has been framed as crime-fighting. But as our research has shown, it is also aimed at tamping down social unrest.

Maduro’s response will likely involve violence against traditional opposition groups that have long mobilized against the government. But we believe poorer Venezuelans, turning out to protest in numbers not seen before, will suffer the most.

This article is republished from The Conversation, a nonprofit, independent news organization bringing you facts and trustworthy analysis to help you make sense of our complex world. It was written by: Rebecca Hanson, University of Florida and Verónica Zubillaga, Simón Bolívar University




Fresh protests in Venezuela as anger grows at disputed election result

Ione Wells in Caracas and Vanessa Buschschlüter in London - BBC News
Wed, July 31, 2024 

Venezuelans have been gathering in central Caracas for a second day [Reuters]


Fresh protests have broken out in the Venezuelan capital, Caracas, after the disputed result of the country's presidential election.

Thousands gathered in the city centre to show their opposition to President Nicolás Maduro's claim of victory.

Many said they would not stop until there was a new government, and some said this would only be achieved if the security forces joined opposition protesters.


However the military and police have so far remained loyal to Mr Maduro and have fired tear gas and rubber bullets at some protesters.

Local officials say around 750 people have been arrested. Two leading NGOs in the country say several people have died and dozens have been injured.

On Tuesday, Venezuela's defence minister described the protests as "a coup".

Surrounded by armed troops, Gen Vladimir Padrino read out a statement saying that President Nicolás Maduro had the "absolute loyalty and unconditional support" of the military.

Venezuela's attorney general, who is a close ally of Mr Maduro, said a soldier had been killed in the anti-government protests.

Opposition leader María Corina Machado called for protests to be peaceful.

"We must proceed in a peaceful manner. We should not fall into the provocations the government has set us. They want to make Venezuelans face off against each other," she said.

"Our candidate won 70% of the votes. We united a country, Venezuelans who once believed in Maduro are with us today.”

One anti-government protester who did not want to be named because he feared repercussions from the security forces, told the BBC they had seen evidence of electoral fraud.

“We are absolutely sure the election was stolen. I worked in an electoral booth. The government is not recognising it, they stopped all the tallies of the vote halfway through the night. They don’t want the world to know that they lost," they said.

They said that Venezuelans who had been supporters of previous leader Hugo Chávez, known as Chavistas, were now withdrawing their support from Mr Maduro.

“This is a very peaceful protest. This is an upper class part of Caracas. What we saw yesterday was quite violent. I believe the people who used to be Chavistas are no longer Chavistas,” they said.

“I think people are hoping for a change. Most likely it will be violent.”


Opposition leader María Corina Machado has urged peaceful demonstrations. [Reuters]

In another development on Tuesday, Costa Rica's Foreign Minister Arnoldo André said it was prepared to give political asylum or refuge status to Ms Machado and Mr González.

Ms Machado responded expressing gratitude, but said her priority was to protect "fellow asylum seekers" at the Argentine Embassy in north-eastern Caracas.

"My responsibility is to continue this fight alongside the people," she wrote on social media.

It comes after the head of congress Jorge Rodríguez said on state television that the opposition pair should be arrested.

President Maduro also warned “justice must come” to the opposition leader and candidate and said he held them “directly responsible for the criminal violence".

Protest erupted after the head of the National Electoral Council (CNE) - who is a member of Mr Maduro's party and used to work as his legal adviser - declared the president re-elected for a third consecutive term.

The CNE had earlier announced that Mr Maduro had won with 51% of the votes, ahead of Edmundo González with 44%.

However, the electoral authority has so far failed to publish detailed voting tallies, which the opposition says show that the result the CNE announced was fraudulent.

The regional body for the Americas, the Organization of American States (OAS), has accused Venezuela's government of completely distorting the results.

The opposition coalition backing Mr González said they had been able to review 73.2% of the voting tallies and maintained that they confirmed that Mr González was the winner by a wide margin.

"We have the records showing our categorical and mathematically irreversible victory," Mr González said.




Key moments which led to Venezuela protests

However on Monday the CNE doubled down, announcing that all votes had been counted and Mr Maduro was the winner.

Meanwhile, Attorney General Tarek Saab, a longtime ally of Mr Maduro, warned that those arrested would be charged with "resisting authority and, in the most serious cases, terrorism".

The opposition Voluntad Popular (Popular Will) party said among those who had been detained was their national political co-ordinator, Freddy Superlano.

The party warned that the government was stepping up its repression of activists who have been demanding the publication of results from polling stations.


Julio Derbis from Petare, one of the slums on the outskirts of the city, said: “We are going to fight, we hope with the pressure from the streets, we will overturn what the president is pretending, which is him sticking to power.

"The police are our neighbours, we live side by side, and they need to understand that they need to unite in the fight for all of our common good.”

Another protester, Karina Pinto, said these protests felt different to previous rounds of anti-government demonstrations.

“We have to get on the streets, it is the only way. We don’t support violence, but they are violent. We have to respond," she said.

“The security forces need to get on our side, they are Venezuelans too. They can’t be against us, we are the people."

Supporters of Maduro also took to the streets and insist he won fairly [Reuters]

In another section of the city, groups of President Maduro’s supporters also gathered to show their backing for him.

Nancy Ramones, one supporter of the president, said: “I’m not protesting anything, I’m supporting my government, the one who won. Nicolás Maduro. And I’m supporting him because he is the man that represents peace.”

“What the opposition say, they have not proved. If they say there is fraud, they have to prove it. And fraud hasn’t happened. They always have a hidden agenda.

“This is a coup that we are not going to allow, we are patriots. We are Venezuelans, we love peace.”

Milagros Arocha said: “Here the one who really won was Nicolás Maduro, here are the people, representing Nicolás Maduro. We want peace.”

Opposition parties had united behind Mr González in an attempt to unseat President Maduro after 11 years in power, amid widespread discontent.

Almost 7.8m people have fled the economic and political crisis which has rocked the country under the Maduro Administration.

The United Nations' human rights chief has said he is deeply concerned about the increasing tension and violence in Venezuela. Volker Türk called on the authorities to respect the rights of all Venezuelans to assemble and protest peacefully.

Key moments which led to Venezuela protests


Choreographed celebrations in Venezuela as Maduro claims win



Venezuela's Maduro asks top court to audit the presidential election, but observers cry foul

REGINA GARCIA CANO and GISELA SALOMON
Updated Wed, July 31, 2024 at 5:59 PM MDT·6 min read
51

 

CARACAS, Venezuela (AP) — President Nicolás Maduro on Wednesday asked Venezuela’s high court to conduct an audit of the presidential election after opposition leaders disputed his claim of victory, drawing criticism from foreign observers who said the court is too close to the government to produce an independent review.

Maduro told reporters that the ruling party is also ready to show all the vote tally sheets from Sunday's election.

“I throw myself before justice,” he said outside the Supreme Tribunal of Justice headquarters in the capital, Caracas, adding that he is “willing to be summoned, questioned, investigated.”

This is Maduro's first concession to demands for more transparency about the election. However, the court is closely aligned with his government; the court's justices are proposed by federal officials and ratified by the National Assembly, which is dominated by Maduro sympathizers.

The Carter Center, which sent a delegation to Venezuela to monitor the election, criticized Maduro's audit request, saying the court would not provide an independent review.

“You have another government institution, which is appointed by the government, to verify the government numbers for the election results, which are in question,” said Jennie K. Lincoln, who led the delegation. “This is not an independent assessment.”

The Atlanta-based group said Tuesday night that it was unable to verify the announced results and criticized what it called a “complete lack of transparency” in declaring Maduro the winner. Venezuela’s electoral authorities allowed the Carter Center to send 17 observers.

Maduro's main challenger, Edmundo González, and opposition leader Maria Corina Machado say they obtained more than two-thirds of the tally sheets that each electronic voting machine printed after polls closed. They said the release of the data on those tallies would prove Maduro lost.

Maduro insisted to reporters that there had been a plot against his government and that the electoral system was hacked. Asked later on during a news conference why electoral authorities have not released detailed vote counts, Maduro said the National Electoral Council has come under attack, including cyber-attacks.

“Engineers are fighting right now” to solve those attacks, he said without elaborating.

The government presented some videos that the president said showed people attacking and torching some electoral offices. The Associated Press was not immediately able to verify the images.

Attorney General Tarek William Saab said more than 1,000 people related to some of those attacks have been arrested.

Pressure has been building on the president since the election. The National Electoral Council, which is loyal to his United Socialist Party of Venezuela, has yet to release any results broken down by voting machine, which it did in past elections.

Colombian President Gustavo Petro, a close Maduro ally, joined other foreign leaders Wednesday in urging him to release detailed vote counts.

“The serious doubts that have arisen around the Venezuelan electoral process can lead its people to a deep violent polarization with serious consequences of permanent division,” Petro said on the social platform X.

“I invite the Venezuelan government to allow the elections to end in peace, allowing a transparent vote count, with the counting of votes, and with the supervision of all the political forces of its country and professional international supervision,” he added.

Petro proposed that Maduro’s government and the opposition reach an agreement “that allows for the maximum respect of the (political) force that has lost the elections.” The agreement, he said, could be submitted to the United Nations Security Council.

His comments came a day after another ally, Brazilian President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva, along with U.S. President Joe Biden, called for the “immediate release of full, transparent, and detailed voting data at the polling station level.”

Brazil’s presidential office refused to comment Wednesday on whether an audit by the Supreme Tribunal of Justice would amount to an independent verification. Instead, it pointed to a Monday statement from the Ministry for Foreign Relations saying the government awaits “the publication by the National Electoral Council of data broken down by polling station, an indispensable step for the transparency, credibility and legitimacy of the election result.”

Lula said of Maduro on Tuesday that “the more transparency there is, the greater his chance of having peace to govern Venezuela.”

The Organization of American States convened for an extraordinary session Wednesday, but members were unable to reach a consensus on a resolution to pressure Venezuelan authorities to “immediately” publish the granular results and verify them in the presence of international observers. Seventeen nations voted in favor of the resolution, one short of the threshold required for passage. Eleven abstained, and five were absent.

According to Machado, the opposition leader, the vote tallies show González received roughly 6.2 million votes compared with 2.7 million for Maduro. That is widely different from the electoral council's report that Maduro received 5.1 million votes, against more than 4.4 million for González.

Venezuela has the world’s largest proven crude reserves and once boasted Latin America’s most advanced economy, but it entered into free fall after Maduro took the helm in 2013. Plummeting oil prices, widespread shortages and hyperinflation that soared past 130,000% led to social unrest and mass emigration.

More than 7.7 million Venezuelans have left the country since 2014, the largest exodus in Latin America’s recent history. Many have settled in Colombia.

Speaking to reporters in Vietnam on Wednesday, the European Union's foreign affairs chief said the bloc won't recognize Maduro’s claim of electoral victory without independent verification of voting records.

“They should have been provided immediately, as in any democratic electoral process,” Josep Borrell said.

Within hours of the electoral council saying Maduro had won, thousands of protesters took to the streets of Caracas and other cities. The protests, which continued into Tuesday, turned violent at times, and law enforcement responded with tear gas and rubber pellets.

The Venezuela-based human rights organization Foro Penal said 11 people, including two minors, were killed in election-related unrest.

Maduro’s closest ruling party allies quickly came to his defense. National Assembly President Jorge Rodriguez — his chief negotiator in dialogues with the U.S. and the opposition — insisted Maduro was the indisputable winner and called his opponents violent fascists. He called for Machado and González to be arrested.

Machado and González urged their supporters to remain calm.

“I ask Venezuelans to continue in peace, demanding that the result be respected and the tally sheets be published,” González said on X. “This victory, which belongs to all of us, will unite us and reconcile us as a nation.”

___

Salomon reported from Miami. Associated Press writers Ella Joyner in Brussels and Eleonore Hughes in Rio de Janeiro contributed.


Venezuelans fear for relatives after mass arrests
Ione Wells - South America Correspondent
BBC
Thu, August 1, 2024 

Hundreds of demonstrators have been arrested following protests sparked by Venezuela's disputed election [Reuters]

“I haven’t been able to see him. Or give him food. Or hand him his clothes. I don’t know if he has been beaten. I don’t know if he has bathed. Or eaten.”

‘Isabella’, who did not want to be named, is desperately worried for her son.

Through tears, she explains that he, 28, and his girlfriend, 17, were arrested and beaten after the family joined a march in Caracas protesting against Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro the day after Sunday’s presidential election.

Mr Maduro claimed victory, which was instantly disputed by the opposition who say they have evidence from electronic voting machines that they, not the government, won.

They and many governments around the world have demanded proof from President Maduro that he won the election.

He has said he will publish the vote tallies, but not when.


Isabella says she has not heard from her son since he was arrested [Paulo Koba / BBC]

Opposition leader María Corina Machado has called for protests “in every city” in Venezuela on Saturday against President Maduro and the disputed election result.

She said on social media “we must remain firm, organised and mobilised with the pride of having achieved a historic victory on 28 July".

The government has said Ms Machado should be arrested.

It comes after Ms Machado wrote in the Wall Street Journal she is in “hiding” and fearing for her “life” and “freedom.”

So far, the Venezuelan government says more than 1,000 people have been arrested in protests set off by the disputed election.

Isabella has very little information about her son. She has been waiting anxiously outside the police station where she believes he is, hoping for answers.

She says on Monday the National Guard “unjustly grabbed” her son and others at the march:

“They were not harming anyone. They did not have stones. They did not have weapons. They only protested.

"They beat him. They accused them of being terrorists for defending their country, for wanting change,” she says.

“We went out to march because we want a change, because we can no longer stand this government. There is so much misery, so much hunger, so much crime, so much injustice towards innocent people, many people dying in hospitals.”

She shows us a photograph of her granddaughter who she says died in December last year because there was no oxygen for treatment in the hospital where she was.

“There were 12 children who died because there was no oxygen,” she says.

“I want Venezuela to be the same as before, where we work with dignity. Where we earned a decent salary. Where our children and grandchildren could study. My daughter and son left university because there are no teachers.

“The government does not want kids to study, it wants us to continue in misery, to be ignorant, to not speak out. How is it possible that you go to a hospital and you have to buy everything? There is no oxygen. There is nothing.”

She said her son was accused of “terrorism” which can carry a sentence of years in prison, but she says the government has no evidence.

The disputed vote sparked anti-government protests across Venezuela [Reuters]

Alberto Romero, a lawyer with the human rights group Foro Penal, said there were about 200 people detained just in the police station where Isabella has been waiting, including children.

“There are 11 minors here,” he said.

“It’s totally illegal. This is not actually a prison, it’s just a police station. It’s not possible for lawyers to get in. No one has had the opportunity to see these people that are being detained, we don’t know the conditions."

The judiciary in Venezuela is controlled by the government.

“The people detained are not allowed private defenders. Public defenders are part of the state. So the one who accused you, is the one who defends you,” he added.

He said that many of the families who he is representing had relatives detained for just “walking in the street” on the day of protests, adding the purpose was “intimidation” of the Venezuelan people.

Foro Penal have verified and identified 711 people who have been detained and 11 people who have died since 29 August when protests began.

Maduro manoeuvring to stay in power in Venezuela

Key moments which led to Venezuela protests

Nicolás Maduro: The leader who promised to win 'by hook or by crook'

Venezuela's attorney general has said there have been more than 1,000 detentions.

An opposition politician, Freddy Superlano, who has been a fierce critic of President Maduro has also been detained. A video shared on social media showed six men putting him in a van and taking him away.

His family have demanded proof that he is still alive and do not know his whereabouts.

On Wednesday, President Maduro asked the Supreme Court to act against protesters – paving the way for further arrests.

President Maduro has described anti-government protesters as "criminals" [EPA]

His government has also accused the opposition leader, Ms Machado, and its presidential candidate, Edmundo González, of inciting violence by disputing the election result and has said they should be arrested.

President Maduro called the opposition leaders a “perverse and macabre duo who have to take responsibility” for protesters he described as “criminals.”

He has strongly denied electoral fraud and has accused the opposition of instigating a “coup”.

But, in an intervention, US Secretary of State Antony Blinken said Washington rejected Mr Maduro’s "unsubstantiated allegations" against opposition leaders.

In a statement Mr Blinken said threats to arrest Ms Machado and Mr González "are an undemocratic attempt to repress political participation and retain power".

"All Venezuelans arrested while peacefully exercising their right to participate in the electoral process or demand transparency in the tabulation and announcement of results should be released immediately," Mr Blinken added.

"Law enforcement and security forces should not become an instrument of political violence used against citizens exercising their democratic rights."

Despite the spectre of detentions growing, many Venezuelans are determined to continue protesting – although some are deterred by fear.

Isabella, in spite of what happened to her son, described the protests as “incredible”.

“Everyone now has internet, WiFi, Instagram, TikTok. Everyone passed a statement through the neighbourhoods saying ‘Let’s March. Let’s join for a better Venezuela'.”

She explained how the slum neighbourhood of Petare, which used to be a stronghold for the president “began to descend” from the mountains to the city.

“They started to go down, shouting, with pots, pans, and flags. Barefoot children, mothers carrying children to the march.

"The colectivo [armed paramilitaries who support Mr Maduro] yelled at us, cursed us, threw stones at us, told us ‘Viva Maduro!’ The authorities started throwing tear gas at us.

"We don’t know how this is going to end. We don’t want dead people.”
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Venezuela tensions rise as OAS chief demands ICC warrant for Maduro
DPA
Thu, August 1, 2024 

Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro speaks at a press conference in the Miraflores presidential palace three days after his controversial re-election. Jeampier Arguinzones/dpa

The power struggle following the disputed presidential election in Venezuela has become more heated.

Authoritarian President Nicolás Maduro said that opposition leader María Corina Machado and her presidential candidate, Edmundo González, belong in prison.

"As a citizen, I say: These people should be behind bars," Maduro told journalists in Caracas on Wednesday.

The opposition maintains that it won Sunday's election, in which Maduro was declared the winner despite allegations of fraud. The US is demanding that the electoral authorities make the lists of the votes cast public.

Maduro has promised to audit the results of the election. But the country's Supreme Tribunal of Justice, which could ultimately have the final say, is seen as deeply loyal to his government.

Maduro labelled Machado and González criminals and cowards, and tried to pin the blame for the violent protests that followed the election on the opposition.

According to non-governmental organizations in Venezuela, at least 11 people died in the riots. Human Rights Watch sid it had received reports that as many as 20 people had died so far. According to the Attorney General's Office, more than 1,000 people have been arrested.

The opposition blames the government for the protests. "After the clear electoral victory that we Venezuelans have won, the regime's response is murder, kidnapping and persecution. These crimes will not go unpunished," Machado wrote on Platform X.

Meanwhile the secretary general of the Organization of American States (OAS) wants the International Criminal Court in The Hague to issue an arrest warrant for Maduro.

"It is time for justice," Luis Almagro said on Wednesday at an emergency meeting of the organization in Washington.

Before the election, Maduro had warned of bloodshed and civil war in the South American country if he was not re-elected for a third term.

Almagro claimed that Maduro was now carrying out that "bloodbath."

"It is time to press charges and request an arrest warrant from the International Criminal Court against the main perpetrators, including Maduro," Almagro wrote on Platform X.

"We will request this indictment with an arrest warrant," he said at the Washington meeting.

The International Criminal Court (ICC) has been investigating Maduro's government for alleged crimes against humanity in the country. The government in Caracas rejects the accusations.

The emergency meeting of the OAS saw the organization's Permanent Council unable to reach a common position on the situation in Venezuela.

A resolution calling for the publication of detailed election results and a guarantee of freedom of assembly failed to gain majority support. Seventeen member states voted in favour of the draft, 11 abstained and five other countries did not send a representative to the meeting.

Maduro's government unilaterally withdrew from the OAS several years ago, and accused it of being in the service of "imperialism."

Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro holds a small copy of the constitution at a press conference in the Miraflores presidential palace three days after his controversial re-election. Jeampier Arguinzones/dpa

Venezuelans rally to support opposition after disputed vote

Barbara Agelvis and Javier Tovar
Wed, July 31, 2024

Venezuelan opposition leader Maria Corina Machado was blocked from standing in the presidential election, so ex-diplomat Edmundo Gonzalez Urrutia ran in her place (Yuri CORTEZ

Thousands of Venezuelans gathered Tuesday in a peaceful show of opposition support a day after 12 people died and hundreds were arrested during protests against President Nicolas Maduro's disputed presidential election victory.

They chanted "Freedom! Freedom!" and "We are not afraid!" at a mass rally in the capital Caracas, where opposition leaders insisted they had the numbers for a convincing victory.

International calls mounted for the Maduro-aligned National Electoral Council (CNE) to release a detailed vote breakdown to back its awarding of Sunday's election to him.

Maduro said the opposition would be held responsible for "criminal violence... the wounded, the dead, the destruction" associated with protests.

The Foro Penal human rights NGO said at least 11 people -- two of them minors -- had died in what its head Alfredo Romero described as "a crisis of human rights."

Dozens more were injured, and at least 177 arrested, he said, while authorities reported more than 700 arrests.

The military has reported one death and 23 injuries among its ranks.

Security forces fired tear gas and rubber bullets Monday at protesters who claimed the election was stolen and flooded the streets with chants of "this government is going to fall!"

The opposition rejects the authorities' assertion that Maduro won with 51 percent of votes compared to 44 percent for Edmundo Gonzalez Urrutia.

Maduro, 61, has led the oil-rich country since 2013, presiding over a GDP drop of 80 percent that pushed more than seven million of once-wealthy Venezuela's 30 million citizens to emigrate.

He is accused of locking up critics and harassing the opposition in a climate of rising authoritarianism.

- 'Cannot be recognised' -

The US-based Carter Center, whose monitors observed the poll, also called for the release of detailed polling station results.

"Venezuela's 2024 presidential election did not meet international standards of electoral integrity and cannot be considered democratic," it said in a statement on Tuesday.

EU foreign policy chief Josep Borrell said the vote results cannot be recognised until voting records are verified and made public.

"We ask to be provided with immediate access to the voting records of polling stations," he told reporters during a trip to Vietnam on Wednesday.

Independent polls had predicted retired diplomat Gonzalez Urrutia, 74, would win by a wide margin.

Thousands of protesters streamed into the streets of several cities when Maduro was declared the winner, some ripping down and burning his campaign posters in anger.

Attorney General Tarek William Saab said 749 "criminals" had been arrested at protests and faced charges of resisting authority or, "in the most serious cases, terrorism."

Maduro's close aide and Venezuela's National Assembly president, Jorge Rodriguez, said Gonzalez Urrutia and Maria Corina Machado -- the popular opposition leader blocked from the ballot by Maduro-aligned courts -- should be locked up over the protests.

- 'Maduro dictator' -

Opposition supporters gathered for peaceful rallies in several cities on Tuesday.

Thousands waved Venezuelan flags and chanted "Maduro dictator!" and "Edmundo president!" at the Caracas rally with Gonzalez Urrutia and Machado.

"We have to stay in the streets, we cannot allow them to steal our vote so brazenly," said Carley Patino, a 47-year-old administrator.

Gonzalez Urrutia told the crowd security forces had "no reason for so much persecution."

UN human rights chief Volker Turk said Tuesday he was "extremely concerned about increasing tensions in Venezuela, with worrying reports of violence."

The White House said "any political repression or violence against protesters or of the opposition is obviously unacceptable."

Long queues formed at stores and supermarkets in Caracas Tuesday as residents stocked up on food, toilet paper and soap.

Most other businesses were closed.

- 'Exceptional manipulation' -

Defense Minister Vladimir Padrino said Maduro had the "absolute loyalty and unconditional support" of the armed forces and vowed to "preserve internal order."

There had been widespread fears of fraud and a campaign tainted by accusations of political intimidation before the election.

The Organization of American States charged there had been "exceptional manipulation" of the results.

Brazilian President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva and US counterpart Joe Biden held talks Tuesday and called for the CNE to release detailed election results. Both countries host large numbers of Venezuelan migrants.

Peru recognized Gonzalez Urrutia as Venezuela's legitimate president on Tuesday, prompting Caracas to sever diplomatic relations.

Costa Rica has offered Gonzalez Urrutia and Machado political asylum.

Caracas has withdrawn diplomatic staff from eight critical Latin American countries and asked envoys from those nations to leave its territory.

bur-mlr/aha/sn/pbt

US recognizes opposition candidate González as the winner of Venezuela's presidential election

REGINA GARCIA CANO, GABRIELA SÁ PESSOA and E. EDUARDO CASTILLO
Updated Thu, August 1, 2024


CARACAS, Venezuela (AP) — The stakes grew higher for Venezuela's electoral authority to show proof backing its decision to declare President Nicolás Maduro the winner of the country's presidential election after the United States on Thursday recognized opposition candidate Edmundo González as the victor, discrediting the official results of the vote.

The U.S. announcement followed calls from multiple governments, including close allies of Maduro, for Venezuela's National Electoral Council to release detailed vote counts, as it has done during previous elections.

The electoral body declared Maduro the winner Monday, but the main opposition coalition revealed hours later that it had evidence to the contrary in the form of more than two-thirds of the tally sheets that each electronic voting machine printed after polls closed.

“Given the overwhelming evidence, it is clear to the United States and, most importantly, to the Venezuelan people that Edmundo González Urrutia won the most votes in Venezuela’s July 28 presidential election,” U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken said in a statement.

Maduro responded with a quick admonishment: "The United States needs to keep its nose out of Venezuela!”

The U.S. government announcement came amid diplomatic efforts to persuade Maduro to release vote tallies from the election and increasing calls for an independent review of the results, according to officials from Brazil and México.

Government officials from Brazil, Colombia and Mexico have been in constant communication with Maduro's administration to convince him that he must show the vote tally sheets from Sunday's election and allow impartial verification, a Brazilian government official told The Associated Press Thursday.

The officials have told Venezuela's government that showing the data is the only way to dispel any doubt about the results, said the Brazilian official, who was not authorized to speak publicly about the diplomatic efforts and requested anonymity.

A Mexican official, who also spoke on condition of anonymity for the same reason, confirmed the three governments have been discussing the issue with Venezuela but did not provide details.

Earlier, Mexican President Andrés Manuel López Obrador said he planned to speak with President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva of Brazil and President Gustavo Petro of Colombia.

Later Thursday, the governments of Brazil, Colombia and Mexico issued a joint statement calling on Venezuela's electoral authorities “to move forward expeditiously and publicly release” detailed voting data, but they did not confirm any backroom diplomatic efforts to persuade Maduro's government to publish the vote tallies.

“The fundamental principle of popular sovereignty must be respected through impartial verification of the results,” they said in the statement.

On Monday, after the National Electoral Council declared Maduro the winner of the election, thousands of opposition supporters took to the streets. The government said it arrested hundreds of protesters and Venezuela-based human rights organization Foro Penal said 11 people were killed. Dozens more were arrested the following day, including a former opposition candidate, Freddy Superlano.

Opposition leader Maria Corina Machado — who was barred from running for president — and González addressed a huge rally of their supporters in the capital, Caracas, on Tuesday, but they have not been seen in public since. Later that day, the president of the National Assembly, Jorge Rodriguez, called for their arrest, calling them criminals and fascists.

In an op-ed published Thursday in the Wall Street Journal, Machado said she is “hiding, fearing for my life, my freedom, and that of my fellow countrymen.” She reasserted that the opposition has physical evidence that Maduro lost the election and urged the international community to intervene.

“We have voted Mr. Maduro out,” she wrote. “Now it is up to the international community to decide whether to tolerate a demonstrably illegitimate government.”

Government repression over the years has pushed opposition leaders into exile. After the op-ed was published, Machado’s team told the AP that she was “sheltering.” Machado later posted a video on social media calling on supporters to gather Saturday across the country.

The González campaign had no comment on the op-ed.

On Wednesday, Maduro asked Venezuela’s highest court to conduct an audit of the election, but that request drew almost immediate criticism from foreign observers who said the court is too close to the government to produce an independent review.

Venezuela's Supreme Tribunal of Justice is closely aligned with Maduro's government. The court’s justices are nominated by federal officials and ratified by the National Assembly, which is dominated by Maduro sympathizers.

On Thursday, the court accepted Maduro's request for an audit and ordered him, González and the eight other candidates who participated in the presidential election to appear before the justices Friday.

Asked why electoral authorities have not released detailed vote counts, Maduro said the National Electoral Council has come under attack, including cyberattacks, without elaborating.

The presidents of Colombia and Brazil — both close allies of the Venezuelan government — have urged Maduro to release detailed vote counts.

The Brazilian official said the diplomatic efforts are only intended to promote dialogue among Venezuelan stakeholders to negotiate a solution to the disputed election. The official said this would include the release of voting data and allowing independent verification.

López Obrador said Mexico hopes the will of Venezuela’s people will be respected and that there's no violence. He added that Mexico expects “that the evidence, the electoral results records, be presented.”

Pressure has been building on the president since the election.

The National Electoral Council, which is loyal to Maduro's United Socialist Party of Venezuela, has yet to release any results broken down by voting machine, as it did in past elections. It did, however, report that Maduro received 5.1 million votes, versus more than 4.4 million for González. But Machado, the opposition leader, has said vote tallies show González received roughly 6.2 million votes compared with 2.7 million for Maduro.

Venezuela has the world’s largest proven crude reserves and once boasted Latin America’s most advanced economy, but it entered into free fall after Maduro took the helm in 2013. Plummeting oil prices, widespread shortages and hyperinflation that soared past 130,000% led to social unrest and mass emigration.

More than 7.7 million Venezuelans have left the country since 2014, the largest exodus in Latin America’s recent history.

___

Sá Pessoa reported from Sao Paulo. Associated Press correspondent María Verza in Mexico City contributed.

 Venezuela Election
Members of the presidential guard wave flags from the regiment's headquarters during a rally by government supporters in defense of President Nicolas Maduro's reelection in Caracas, Venezuela, Tuesday, July 30, 2024.
 (AP Photo/Fernando Vergara)










































Detainees' families gather outside the Boleita National Police detention center after their loved ones were arrested during opposition protests in recent days against the official results of the presidential election in Caracas, Venezuela, Thursday, Aug. 1, 2024. (AP Photo/Matias Delacroix)
LOST BET
US bets on Gaza cease-fire talks as assassinations tilt Mideast toward bigger war

Nahal Toosi, Erin Banco, Jonathan Lemire and Joe Gould
Wed, July 31, 2024 


The Biden administration is clinging to the stubbornly elusive goal of a cease-fire deal to end the fighting in Gaza, even as a pair of assassinations blamed on Israel may have undercut the effort and brought the Middle East closer to a full-on regional war.

Secretary of State Antony Blinken and Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin stressed to reporters on Wednesday that their main focus is still on diplomacy between Israel and the Hamas militant group, with Blinken casting it as key to bringing calm on other fronts.

“The best way to bring the temperature down everywhere, put us on a better path, is through a cease-fire in Gaza,” Blinken said in an interview in Singapore. “That will have, I think, important effects on other areas where you could see conflict — whether it’s in the north of Israel and Lebanon, whether it’s Iran, whether it’s in the Red Sea with the Houthis.”

The American officials’ remarks came as two killings in recent days have shaken up an already volatile region: that of Hezbollah military commander Fuad Shukr in Beirut and Hamas political chief Ismail Haniyeh in Tehran. Israel has claimed credit for the first assassination and is suspected in the second. The early Wednesday killing of Haniyeh in particular could affect the cease-fire talks because he was involved in the negotiations, and Iran has already vowed retribution.

The Biden team’s emphasis on the Gaza cease-fire talks underscores how much the U.S. is counting on those conversations as the linchpin to preventing a broader regional war — and that U.S. officials don’t appear to have a serious plan B. Options such as convincing Hamas leaders to surrender and go into exile have been floated but don’t appear realistic at the moment.

The negotiations between Israel and Hamas have faltered in recent weeks as both sides have asked for new concessions and amid a lack of trust that either will stick to the terms of what’s supposed to be a multi-phase deal.

A senior Biden administration official declined to describe U.S.-Israeli conversations about the Haniyeh strike, but acknowledged that when it comes to the Gaza cease-fire talks, “it did not make our jobs any easier.”

Senate Armed Services Chair Jack Reed (D-R.I.). questioned whether Israel — whose leaders, especially Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, have at times appeared lukewarm about a cease-fire before destroying Hamas — are intentionally trying to undercut the talks given that Haniyeh was one of the negotiators.

“The concern is is this going to cause an escalation because in downtown Beirut they took somebody out, and in downtown Tehran they took someone out,” Reed said. “The question is what effect will it have on negotiations. I don’t think it will help it, I think it will set it back. That might be part of the logic of the attack on him too.”

Without some sort of truce, U.S. officials fear Israel and Hamas will ratchet up the violence, with Israel in particular deciding that the only way to eventually calm Gaza is through more fighting now.

That could lead to escalation by other groups that are already exchanging fire with Israel, including Hezbollah and the Houthis in Yemen, and pull the whole region into a conflagration. In particular, it could lead to direct battles between Israel and Iran.

In the months since Hamas’ Oct. 7 attack on Israel, which killed some 1,200 people, Israel has fought the Palestinian militants but also engaged in multiple rounds of talks with them about temporary truces and hostage releases, including one major successful effort.

The violence between Israel and Iran-backed Hezbollah forces in Lebanon has reached new heights in recent months, but the U.S. has pursued indirect talks on that front as well. That’s even though American officials believe that Hezbollah won’t back down in its faceoff with Israel until after Hamas agrees to a cease-fire with the Israelis.

An alleged Hezbollah strike that killed a dozen children at a soccer field in the Golan Heights has thrown a wrench on every front. That attack — which Hezbollah denied responsibility for — is what is thought to have led Israel to carry out the strike in Beirut against Shukr.

The U.S. perceived the strike in the Lebanese capital as a standard, proportional response for the killing of the children, according to two U.S. officials, although it was unclear how Hezbollah would respond. Like others, the officials were granted anonymity to discuss sensitive issues.

The attack in Iran could have far larger implications.

The White House did not receive a heads-up about it, one of the officials said. Blinken appeared to confirm this, saying, “this is something we were not aware of or involved in.” Israel has stayed silent on the strike, but U.S. officials have not yet received information that would suggest another player carried it out.

One obvious question is why Israel would take out Haniyeh now.


The assassination of the Hamas political leader will make intermediaries and hosts of Hamas feel “a bit like the rug is being pulled out from under them,” said Nathan Brown, a George Washington University professor who previously served as an adviser for the committee drafting the Palestinian constitution.

Israel still wants to move forward with a cease-fire deal with Hamas in the coming weeks, according to an Israeli official. The official added, however, that the momentum Israel and the U.S. gained at the beginning of July, when Hamas signaled it was ready to work toward finalizing a deal, has fallen off.

By mid-July, both sides were asking for additional concessions. The Israelis wanted to increase the number of live hostages that would be released under the pact. Hamas wanted Israel to agree to withdraw all of its forces from Gaza, not just from certain populated areas. The negotiating team met again in Rome last week, but did not make significant progress. More talks are expected this week, the senior administration official said.

While Israel stands by its public statements that it does not want to go to war with Iran, it sees the situation with Hezbollah — one of Iran’s most powerful proxies in the region — as one that will only continue to escalate. Israelis have been left feeling that the Shiite militia had “really crossed the line” with its strike that killed the children, the Israeli official said.

“You have a situation where each of the parties believes that in order to deter the other, they have to climb the ladder. And so where we are today with Hezbollah is a different place then where we were … six months ago,” the Israeli official said.

That sentiment matches some analysts’ observations that Israel may be operating on the theory that the best way to get Hamas and Hezbollah to back down and agree to pause hostilities is to demonstrate its strength.

This tactic is often called “escalate to deescalate.”

“Israel is saying by these strikes: We’d prefer to wind all this down diplomatically but if we cannot achieve our goals that way, we will escalate as we would prevail — and that you know we would,” said James Jeffrey, a former U.S. ambassador to Iraq, Turkey and Albania.

Netanyahu also has personal reasons to drag out the fighting.

The Israeli leader is under pressure from far-right figures critical to sustaining his governing coalition not to cede an inch to Hamas and to be more defiant against the Islamist regime in Tehran. Many U.S. officials also suspect that Netanyahu —who is facing corruption charges — feels that continuing the fighting is the best way for him to stay in power and out of jail.

Hamas-controlled health institutions say Israel has killed nearly 40,000 Palestinians in Gaza since Oct. 7; those numbers include militants and civilians.

But “there’s always a risk” in acts of escalation such as the strike against Haniyeh, said Alper Coşkun, former director general for international security affairs at the Turkish Ministry of Foreign Affairs. “Hitting such a target in Tehran really pushes the limits.”

This is not the first time Israel has made a sensitive move against Iran since Oct. 7.

In April, it struck what Iran said was one of its diplomatic facilities in Damascus, Syria, killing several top Iranian military officials. Iran responded by launching hundreds of missiles and rockets at Israel — an unprecedented direct attack from Iran against Israel, not just via Iran’s proxies elsewhere in the region.

The U.S., Israel and some Arab states intercepted the vast majority of the projectiles, limiting the damage to Israel. Israel then carried a small counterstrike against Iran. But the faceoff was essentially contained.

Biden’s allies in Congress were scrambling Wednesday to make sense of the latest events. Reed confirmed that Gen. Erik Kurilla, the head of U.S. Central Command, was supposed to brief lawmakers on the Middle East on Wednesday but the gathering was postponed due to the assassinations.

Sen. Peter Welch (D-Vt.) was critical of the decision to assassinate Haniyeh. “It’s reinforcing the Netanyahu approach, which is to do everything his way without consultation with the U.S., yet expecting the U.S. to back him up with every decision he makes,” Welch said.

Hawkish Republicans, meanwhile, cheered Haniyeh’s death.

Sen. Marco Rubio (R-Fla.), the Senate Intelligence Committee’s ranking member, said “Iran has no right to protest” because it has plotted to assassinate former President Donald Trump and Iranian dissidents.

“The world’s a better place with that guy gone,” Rubio said.

Matt Berg, Miles J. Herszenhorn and Paul McLeary contributed to this report.


Blinken says Gaza cease-fire is 'imperative' after killing of Hamas leader in Iran

Anders Hagstrom
Wed, July 31, 2024

Secretary of State Antony Blinken says it is "imperative" that there be a cease-fire in Gaza after the killing of Hamas political leader Ismail Haniyeh in Iran.

Blinken made the comments while speaking at a forum in Singapore on Wednesday. His comments came just hours after Haniyeh was in Tehran for Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian's swearing-in on Tuesday. Pezeshkian was sworn in with chants of "Death to America, Israel."

"I have seen the reports. Nothing takes more importance than getting a cease fire. In the interest of putting things on a better path. We've been working since day one to stop[this war] from spreading," he said.

Iran has not provided any details on how Haniyeh was killed. The incident is under investigation.

HAMAS LEADER ISMAIL HANIYEH REPORTEDLY ASSASSINATED

Israel was immediately blamed for the assassination, but no party has taken responsibility for Haniyeh's death as of Wednesday morning.

IDF KILLS HEZBOLLAH COMMANDER BEHIND BRUTAL ATTACK ON CHILDREN'S SOCCER FIELD: OFFICIALS

"The fact that such a high-ranking Hamas leader was assassinated on Iranian soil was an added bonus for Israel particularly directly after he participated in the inauguration ceremony of the new Islamic Republic president," Lisa Daftari, Middle East analyst and editor-in-chief at The Foreign Desk, told Fox News.

"It sends a clear message that Israel does not differentiate between the Islamic Republic and its proxies, Hamas and Hezbollah," she added.

HARRIS SAYS ISRAEL HAS RIGHT TO DEFEND ITSELF AS IRAN, RUSSIAN AND LEBANON CONDEMN IDF STRIKE ON HEZBOLLAH

U.S. Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin said the U.S. government would seek to ease tensions, but that it would help defend Israel if it were attacked.

Hamas said Haniyeh was killed "in a Zionist airstrike on his residence in Tehran after he participated in the inauguration of Iran’s new president."

"Hamas declares to the great Palestinian people and the people of the Arab and Islamic nations and all the free people of the world, brother leader Ismail Haniyeh a martyr," the statement said.

Haniyeh left the Gaza Strip five years ago and was living in exile in Qatar. The top Hamas leader in Gaza is Yahya Sinwar, the mastermind behind the Oct. 7 terror attack on Israel. He remains alive.

Fox News' Landon Mion and Reuters contributed to this report


Killing of Hamas political leader points to diverging paths for Israel, US on cease-fire

ELLEN KNICKMEYER
Updated Wed, July 31, 2024 

Hamas members hold a poster of Hamas political chief Ismail Haniyeh during a protest to condemn his killing, at al-Bass Palestinian refugee camp, in the southern port city of Tyre, Lebanon, Wednesday, July 31, 2024. Haniyeh, Hamas' political chief in exile who landed on Israel's hit list after the militant group staged its surprise Oct. 7 attacks, was killed in an airstrike in the Iranian capital early Wednesday. 
(AP Photo/Mohammed Zaatari)

WASHINGTON (AP) — Israel's suspected killing of Hamas' political leader in the heart of Tehran, coming after a week in which Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahupromised U.S. lawmakers he would continue his war against Hamas until “total victory,” points to an Israeli leader ever more openly at odds with Biden administration efforts to calm the region through diplomacy.

U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken, speaking on an Asia trip, was left to tell reporters there that Americans had not been aware of or involved in the attack on Hamas political leader Ismail Haniyeh, whose roles included overseeing Hamas' side in U.S.-led mediation to bring a cease-fire and release of hostages in the Gaza war.

The U.S. remains focused on a cease-fire in the 9-month-old Israeli war in Gaza “as the best way to bring the temperature down everywhere,” Blinken said after Haniyeh's killing.

The targeting, and timing, of the overnight strike may have all but destroyed U.S. hopes for now.

“I just don't see how a cease-fire is feasible right now with the assassination of the person you would have been negotiating with,” said Vali Nasr, a former U.S. diplomat now at the Johns Hopkins University School of Advanced International Studies.

If the expected cycles of retaliation and counter-retaliation ahead start unspooling as feared, Haniyeh's killing could mark the end of Biden administration's hopes of restraining escalatory actions as Israel targets what Netanyahu calls Iran's “axis of terror," in the wake of Hamas' Oct. 7 attacks in Israel.

And with the U.S. political campaign entering its final months, it will be more difficult for the Biden administration to break away — if it wants to — from an ally it is bound to through historical, security, economic and political ties.

The killing of Haniyeh, and another suspected Israeli strike on a senior Hezbollah leader in the Lebanese capital of Beirut hours earlier, came on the heels of Netanyahu's return home from a nearly weeklong trip to the U.S., his first foreign trip of the war.

The Biden administration had said it hoped to use the visit to overcome some of the remaining obstacles in negotiations for a cease-fire in Gaza and to free Israeli, American and other foreign hostages held by Hamas and other militants.

President Joe Biden has been Israel's most vital backer in the war, keeping up shipments of arms and other military aid while defending Israel against any international action over the deaths of more than 39,000 Palestinians in the Israeli offensive.

But Biden has also put his political weight behind efforts to secure the cease-fire and hostage release, including publicly declaring that the two sides had both agreed to a framework and urging them to seal the deal.

Netanyahu told a joint meeting of Congress during his visit that Israel was determined to win nothing less than “total victory” against Hamas. Asked directly by journalists on the point later, he said that Israel hoped for a cease-fire soon and was working for one.

Following the visit, Biden administration officials dodged questions about reports that Israel's far-right government had newly raised additional conditions for any cease-fire deals.

Haniyeh had been openly living in Doha, Qatar, for the months since the Oct. 7 attack. But he wasn't attacked until he was in Tehran for the inauguration of Iran’s president. Nasr said Iran will see it as a direct Israeli attack on its sovereignty, and respond.

“If you wanted to have a cease-fire, if Haniyeh was in your sights, you might have said, ’I’ll kill him in a few months. Not now,‴ said Nasr, who said it suggested overt undermining of cease-fire negotiations by Netanyahu.

Israel may have intended the strike in Tehran to increase pressure on Hamas to take the deal on a cease-fire and release of hostages in Gaza, said Ahmed Fouad Alkhatib, a senior fellow with the Atlantic Council.

Netanyahu’s far-right government says Israel is fighting in Gaza to destroy Iran-allied Hamas as a military and governing power there. Israel warns that it is also prepared to expand its fight further to include an offensive in Lebanon, if necessary to stop what have been near-daily exchanges of rocket fire between Lebanon-based Hezbollah and Israel.

Hezbollah is by far the most powerful of the Iran-allied groups in the Middle East. Analysts and diplomats warn of any such expansion of hostilities touching off uncontrollable conflicts throughout the region that would draw in the United States as Israel’s ally. The U.S., France and others have urged Israel and Iran and its allies to resolve tensions through negotiations.

In a letter to foreign diplomats made public Tuesday, Israeli Foreign Minister Israel Katz said that Israel “is not interested in all-out war,” but that the only way to avoid it would be to implement a 2006 U.N. resolution calling for a demilitarized zone along Israel’s border with Lebanon and an end of hostilities with Hezbollah.

U.S. national security adviser John Kirby, who earlier this week called fears of major escalation from the killing of the Hezbollah official in Beirut “exaggerated,” told reporters that the news of the more momentous strike on the Hamas leader in Tehran “doesn't help ... with the temperature going down in the region. We're obviously concerned."

At the same time, Kirby said, “We also haven't seen any indication...that this process has been completely torpedoed. We still believe that this is a worthy endeavor...and a deal can be had.” The U.S. had a team in the region Wednesday for negotiations, he said.

“We don't want to see an escalation. And everything we've been doing since the 7th of October has been trying to manage that risk," he said.

____

Associated Press writer Seung Min Kim contributed to this report.


US says it was not involved in top Hamas leader assassination

Brad Dress
Wed, July 31, 2024 



Secretary of State Antony Blinken said the U.S. was not involved in the death of top Hamas leader Ismail Haniyeh, who was killed early Wednesday morning in an apparent assassination in Iran.

Blinken, who is on a multicountry trip to the Indo-Pacific, told Channel News Asia the U.S. was “not aware of or involved in” the assassination.

At at separate event Wednesday in Singapore, Blinken reiterated his support for a cease-fire and hostage release deal between Israel and Hamas.

“It’s profoundly in the interest of putting things in a better path,” he said of a deal. “We’ll continue to work at that every day.”

Blinken added it was difficult “to speculate” if the death of Haniyeh would complicate a potential cease-fire and hostage release deal, which aims to halt the fighting in Gaza and return the 116 hostages still held by Hamas.

Israel has not commented on the death of Haniyeh, who has been living in exile in Qatar for several years but was on a visit to Iran’s capitol of Tehran when a drone or rocket struck his building, killing him and his bodyguard, according to Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps.

Iran and Hamas have blamed Israel for the death of Haniyeh and have vowed revenge in response.

It would be somewhat rare for Israel to strike Iranian soil, which Israeli officials are aware would likely provoke an escalation as fighting rages across the Middle East between Iranian-backed proxies and Israel.

But Israel is suspected of being behind the death of Iranian scientists on Iran’s soil in 2020, and in April, Israeli forces carried out a limited attack in the country following Tehran’s massive drone and rocket strike on Israel.

The Haniyeh strike comes just one day after Israel targeted and claimed to have killed the top military commander of Iranian-backed Hezbollah in Lebanon’s Beirut in response to the militia group’s rocket attack that killed 12 children in Israel.

Fears are mounting that Israel and Hezbollah, which have been trading cross-border fire for some 10 months, are headed to a war, even if a deal is reached to stop the fighting in Gaza, where more than 39,000 Palestinians have been killed.

Israeli forces have targeted several top Hamas officials as they seek to take out the leadership following the deadly Hamas attacks on southern Israel on Oct. 7, which killed some 1,200 people and took some 250 hostages.

Israel may have taken out Hamas’s military chief, Mohammed Deif, in a June strike, though his death is not confirmed. The top Hamas leader in Gaza, Yahya Sinwar, remains at large and is believed to be hiding out in the group’s vast tunnel network.

Haniyeh’s death is a major blow to Hamas, since he had led the militant group since 2017 and been the most visible face of its political side.

Copyright 2024 Nexstar Media, Inc. All rights reserved. This material may not be published, broadcast, rewritten, or redistributed.

Kamala Harris’ Popularity And Hints of a Rate Cut Are Hurting ‘Trump Trades’


Kamala Harris’ Popularity And Hints of a Rate Cut Are Hurting ‘Trump Trades’·Bloomberg


Tania Chen, Winnie Hsu and Carter Johnson
Thu, Aug 1, 2024

(Bloomberg) -- The surging popularity of Kamala Harris in US election polls and soaring odds the Federal Reserve will soon start cutting interest rates is dealing a double-blow to the so-called Trump trades.

In the 11 days since President Joe Biden declared he wouldn’t seek a second term and Democrats united behind the candidacy of Vice President Harris, strategies seen benefiting from a win by Donald Trump have lost steam. The dollar has stagnated, Treasuries have rallied and Bitcoin has slid.

Polls now suggest a dead heat between Harris and Trump in swing states, handing markets a harsh reminder on the risk of betting on political events. Just weeks ago, an assassination attempt and doubts over Biden’s age were seen as helping Trump, who is seen embracing looser fiscal policy, higher trade tariffs and softer financial regulation if he returns to the White House.

“We have seen some Trump trades unwinding,” Neeraj Seth, chief investment officer and head of APAC fundamental fixed income at BlackRock, said in a Bloomberg Television on Thursday. “We’ll go back and forth between now and the fifth of November.”

The markets aren’t solely reacting to the electoral outlook. Fed Chair Jerome Powell acknowledged this week the central bank could pare rates in September, also pushing investors to favor Treasuries and doubt the dollar. That signaling is likely to annoy Trump, who recently told Bloomberg Businessweek a rate cut just weeks before the vote is something officials “know they shouldn’t be doing.”


What Bloomberg’s Strategists Say...

“Investors have received a cautionary lesson in the dangers of underestimating how rapidly political landscapes can shift. The more likely outcome, especially with the Fed putting a rate cut on the table for next meeting, is for trades tied to US politics to go to sleep until September ends.”

— Garfield Reynolds, MLIV Asia team leader. Click here for more

Here’s a rundown of how the Trump trades are faring:

Bond Trades

Focus in the world’s biggest bond market has recently been more tied to monetary policy then politics. Treasuries rallied to cap a third-straight month of gains in July — the longest winning streak for US bonds in three years — after Powell spoke on Wednesday.

That runs counter to one iteration of the Trump trade, which posits the Republican’s return to the White House would likely lead to tax cuts and add to the national debt, casting a shadow over longer-dated Treasuries.

However, a favorite way to express that concern, via bets on a steeper yield curve, remains a good play for traders thanks to the Fed’s shift toward cuts. An easing Fed is likely to support a so-called bull steepener, where short-dated Treasuries rally more than bonds with further-out maturities.

BlackRock’s Seth sees the Fed policy path as “more important” from a 12-to-18 month time horizon, rather than trying to speculate on where the elections are going.

“We are moving toward the easing cycle, that’s unambiguous,” he said.

Dollar

A gauge of the US dollar has stalled since Biden pulled out of the race.

Some traders had been wagering that the dollar would rally into a Trump victory on the premise that it would benefit from a haven bid before the election and then from trade tariffs thereafter.

But that bet got a lot more complicated when Trump weighed in last month to argue that a highly-valued greenback is a “tremendous burden” on US companies, and chose strong-dollar skeptic and Ohio Senator JD Vance as his running mate.

Roughly two-thirds of respondents to a Bloomberg MLIV Pulse survey conducted between July 22 and 26 said they expected a second term for Trump would ultimately undermine the greenback as the world’s reserve currency. Still, 26% saw the dollar as the best refuge from volatility if he were to win.

Given the competing impulses, the Fed’s shift is arguably the more consequential driver for the dollar going forward. The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index suffered its worst day in more than two months on Wednesday as Powell confirmed the central bank’s growing bias toward easing.

A softer dollar is “the path of least resistance until the election outcome reduces the uncertainty associated with post-election trades,” Steven Englander, head of global G-10 FX research at Standard Chartered, wrote Thursday.

Stocks

Prison companies GEO Group Inc. and CoreCivic Inc. are expected to benefit in case of a Republican sweep, given Trump’s tough stance on immigration.

But their shares have slid since Biden dropped out of the race.

By contrast, gun stocks like Smith & Wesson Brands and Sturm Ruger & Co. are faring well so far.

Bank stocks — which have been called out as a key potential beneficiary from a Trump administration because of optimism for regulatory relief — have largely held on to their July gains amid the broader market’s rotation trade.


Meanwhile, Trump Media & Technology Group Corp., parent of Truth Social, has slumped over 20% since July 21. The stock had seen some wild swings lately among all the election headlines.

“What was viewed as a cake walk has become very competitive leading many to question whether the Trump Trade was done a bit premature,” said Peak Capital Management CEO Brian Lockhart. “I expect there to be a lot of ‘noise’ in the markets that will likely mean higher levels of volatility through the election.”

China Risk

Belying expectations the yuan will be hammered as Trump trades gather momentum, the offshore unit strengthened 1% against the dollar in July — the best performance since November. Recent gains in the yuan have been partly driven by a surge in the yen, with the two currencies increasingly moving in lockstep.

Investors agree that Chinese assets remain at risk regardless of who wins the election, though they’ll likely fare worse under Trump. The former president has floated slapping 60% tariffs on imports from China and 10% duties from the rest of the world.

Harris may continue existing national security and industrial policy measures directed against the world’s second-largest economy. The developments can favor regions like India and defensive stocks such as Asia REITs, which are less exposed to trade risks and stand to benefit from a lower rate environment, said Ray Sharma-Ong, head of multi-asset investment solutions for Southeast Asia at abrdn.

Cryptocurrencies

Rising doubt that Trump will get a chance to implement his pro-crypto agenda has undermined Bitcoin in recent days.

The original cryptocurrency has become something of a proxy for Trump’s odds of returning to the White House after he pledged to make the US the “crypto capital of the planet and the Bitcoin superpower.”

Crypto stocks Coinbase Global Inc., Marathon Digital Holdings Inc. and Riot Platforms Inc. have also fallen since Biden dropped out.

Kyle Doane, head of trading at Arca, said some of the recent Bitcoin weakness may be due to Harris “inching up in the polls.”

Harris Trade

Unlike the Trump trade, strategies associated with a Harris win have been touted less so far. With the expectation that she will inherit Biden administration’s policy stance, market watchers are placing more weight on macro drivers.

“We would favor more bullish positioning on Asian equities on unhedged basis if Harris wins, since Harris is unlikely to introduce large inflationary shocks to the global economy,” said Homin Lee, senior macro strategist at Lombard Odier Singapore Ltd. “The core drivers of the ongoing disinflation in the US will be preserved.”

For abrdn Plc, the Harris trade has yet to emerge because it’s not clear what the composition of the US Congress will be.

“Should we get a blue wave in Congress, we expect the Democrats to push for the reintroduction of their pandemic-era child tax credits and an increase in corporation tax,” Sharma-Ong said. “This will be a drag on the bottom line of corporates, and markets will favor stocks with strong margins.”

For some, it’s just too early to play the Harris trade.

“Her lead, for now, isn’t due to anything she has done but rather because nothing has been done or initiated, leaving room for optimism to grow,” said Hebe Chen, an analyst at IG Markets in Melbourne.

(Updates levels and adds comment)

Most Read from Bloomberg Businessweek
Xi’s Embrace of Meloni Shows China Has Use for Friends in Europe





Rebecca Choong Wilkins
Wed, Jul 31, 2024

(Bloomberg) -- President Xi Jinping’s warm welcome for the Italian prime minister offers a pointed reminder to European leaders of the economic benefits of engaging with China — and also of the potential risks.

Italian diplomats hailed Giorgia Meloni’s five-day trip as a success after she secured a sit-down with Xi and a clutch of cooperation deals, as well as glowing reviews in Chinese state media. To pull that off, she avoided criticizing her host for supporting Russia’s war machine or overcapacity in key tech industries, according to public statements, though did warn trade ties between Italy and China must be rebalanced.

Her reception suggests Beijing is seeking to fan tensions between European Union members with the promise of lucrative bilateral ties for some, even as the 27-nation bloc as a whole moves closer to the tougher US approach to trade with the world’s no. 2 economy.

“There is probably a bit of that divide-and-conquer mindset informing the welcome,” said Ja Ian Chong, an associate professor of political science at the National University of Singapore.

Meloni had faced a delicate balancing act when she landed in Beijing on Saturday aiming to reset links with Beijing after controversially pulling Italy out of Xi’s Belt and Road Initiative last year. But Xi, too, can benefit from a relationship with Italy as both sides look to prepare themselves for the potential return of Donald Trump to the White House next year.


By singling out Meloni and Hungary’s Viktor Orban, the most prominent far-right leaders in the EU, Xi is also playing on the faultline running through European politics as new populists emerge to challenge, and in some cases displace, establishment parties. Both Olaf Scholz of Germany and France’s Emmanuel Macron have seen their authority compromised by domestic problems amid growing support for the far right.

While Macron was treated to a tea in a residence once used by Xi’s father when he visited China last year, he ultimately walked away with few concrete gains. Scholz echoed US complaints about an unfair glut of Chinese exports when he visited in April.

“There’s also some calculation that Macron might be in a weaker position, whereas Meloni is representative of the resurgent right,” Chong said.

Meloni’s willingness to bring Xi into discussions over Russia’s war in Ukraine also suits the Chinese leader.

In recent years, the Chinese president has sought to portray himself as a neutral arbiter on the world stage capable of brokering agreements such as last year’s accord between Iran and Saudi Arabia.

Chinese diplomacy was particularly active in the week leading up to Meloni’s visit, with Ukraine’s foreign minister, Dmytro Kuleba, visiting Beijing for Kyiv’s first high-level trip in eight years. Chinese officials also presided over a gathering of rival Palestinian factions who signed an agreement to establish an interim reconciliation government in a document dubbed the “Beijing Declaration.”

One Italian diplomat argued that despite Xi’s support for Russia, bringing China into negotiations on Ukraine is valuable because it’s one of the few countries that can influence Russian President Vladimir Putin.

Meloni has little power to influence the European Commission’s probe into subsidies for Chinese electric vehicles, which is the most pressing bilateral issue between Beijing and the EU. But if Xi can encourage countries like Italy to consider a more conciliatory approach to China then he’ll make it harder for the bloc to take decisive action on other issues.

With the EU seeking to maintain a united front on tariffs, Chinese firms are preparing their response, planning factories inside the bloc to get around the restrictions. BYD Co., for instance, is planning its first European car factory in Hungary, rewarding Orban for years of courting Beijing. Another electric vehicle firm Chery Automobile Co., has partnered with a Spanish company there and plans to begin production later this year.

The challenge posed to the EU by China’s EV producers encapsulates some of the more fundamental dilemmas at the heart of the bloc’s dealings with Beijing.

China represents the biggest market for German car producers — the flagship industry in the EU’s biggest economy — and as such is indispensable to company profits. Yet the rapid advances of Chinese EVs threaten the future of firms such as Volkswagen AG and Mercedes-Benz Group AG, which are struggling to navigate the transition from combustion engines.

Germany’s particular vulnerability to any retribution from China creates tensions with countries like France that have been pushing for a more assertive response. That’s likely part of the Chinese calculation, analysts say, when Xi decides to embrace Meloni and Orban.

Despite Meloni’s decision to pull out of the BRI, there’s a sense in Beijing that the Italians are not among those pushing hardest for retaliation against what the Europeans say are China’s unfair subsidies. So there may be some belief that it may be possible to win over Meloni to soften the EU’s overall stance.

--With assistance from Donato Paolo Mancini.

 Bloomberg Businessweek

©2024 Bloomberg L.P.



Intel to cut 15% jobs, suspend dividend in turnaround push; shares plummet


China International Supply Chain Expo in Beijing·
]
Arsheeya Bajwa
Updated Thu, Aug 1, 2024

(Reuters) -Intel said on Thursday it would cut more than 15% of its workforce, some 17,500 people, and suspend its dividend starting in the fourth quarter as the chipmaker pursues a turnaround focused on its money-losing manufacturing business.

It also forecast third-quarter revenue below market estimates, grappling with a pullback in spending on traditional data center semiconductors and a focus on AI chips, where it lags rivals.

Shares of Santa Clara, California-based Intel slumped 20% in extended trade, setting the chipmaker up to lose more than $24 billion in market value. The stock had closed down 7% on Thursday, in tandem with a plunge in U.S. chip stocks after a conservative forecast from Arm Holdings on Wednesday.

The results did not rock the broader chip industry.

AI powerhouse Nvidia and smaller rival AMD ticked up after hours, underscoring how well-positioned they were to take advantage of the AI boom, and Intel's relative disadvantage.

"I need less people at headquarters, more people in the field, supporting customers," CEO Pat Gelsinger told Reuters in an interview, talking about the job cuts. On the dividend suspension, he said: "Our objective is to ... pay a competitive dividend over time, but right now, focusing on the balance sheet, deleveraging."

Intel, which employed 116,500 people as of June 29, excluding some subsidiaries, said the majority of the job cuts would be completed by the end of 2024. In April, it declared a quarterly dividend of 12.5 cents per share.

Intel is in the middle of a turnaround plan, focused on developing advanced AI processors and building-out its for-hire manufacturing capabilities, as it aims to recoup the technological edge it lost to Taiwan's TSMC, the world's largest contract chipmaker.


The push to energize that contracting foundry business under Gelsinger has increased Intel's costs and pressured profit margins. More recently, the chipmaker has said it will cut costs.

On Thursday, Intel announced it would cut operating expenses and reduce capital expenditure by more than $10 billion in 2025, more than it initially planned.

"A $10 billion cost reduction plan shows that management is willing to take strong and drastic measures to right the ship and fix problems. But we are all asking, 'is it enough' and is it a bit of a late reaction considering that CEO Gelsinger has been at the helm for over three years?" said Michael Schulman, chief investment officer of Running Point Capital.

The company had cash and cash equivalents of $11.29 billion, and total current liabilities of about $32 billion, as of June 29.

Intel's lagging position in the market for AI chips has sent its shares down more than 40% so far this year.

For the third quarter, Intel expects revenue of $12.5 billion to $13.5 billion, compared with analysts' average estimate of $14.35 billion, LSEG data showed. It forecast adjusted gross margin of 38%, well short of market expectations of 45.7%.

CUTTING CAPEX

Analysts believe Intel's plan to turn around the foundry business will take years to materialize and expect TSMC to maintain its lead in the coming years, even as Intel has ramped up production of AI chips for personal computers.

The PC chip business grew 9% in the April-June quarter.

"The irony is that ... their first AI PC-focused processors are selling much better than expected. The problem is that the costs for those chips are much higher, meaning their profitability on them isn't great," said Bob O'Donnell, chief analyst at TECHnalysis Research.

"In addition, the data center decline reinforces the fact that while companies are buying lots of infrastructure for AI, the vast majority is for non-Intel GPUs," he said, referring to graphic processing units like those sold by Nvidia.

Intel's data center business declined 3% in the quarter.

CFO David Zinsner said on a post-earnings call that the chipmaker expects weaker consumer and enterprise spending in the current quarter, especially in China.

Export licenses that were revoked in May also hurt Intel's business in China in the second quarter, he said. Intel said in May its sales there would take a hit after Washington revoked some of the chipmaker's export licenses for a customer in China.

Intel is also slashing investments.

It expects to cut capital expenses by 17% in 2025 year-on-year to $21.5 billion, calculated on the midpoint of a range the chipmaker forecast. It expects these costs to stay roughly flat in 2024.

(Reporting by Arsheeya Bajwa in Bengaluru; Additional reporting by Max Cherney and Noel Randewich in San Francisco and Juby Babu in Mexico City; Editing by Sayantani Ghosh and Christopher Cushing)