Sunday, August 04, 2024

FOSSILS

Half a billion-year-old spiny slug reveals the origins of mollusks



University of Oxford
Sclerite.png 

image: 

Conical spines that cover the body of Shishania aculeata (left). Electron microscope image
of a conical spine showing the microscopic channels preserved inside (right). Credit: G Zhang/L Parry.

view more 

Credit: G Zhang/L Parry.





 

  • Exceptional fossils with preserved soft parts reveal that the earliest molluscs were flat, armoured slugs without shells.
  • The new species, Shishania aculeata was covered with hollow, organic, cone-shaped spines.
  • The fossils preserve exceptionally rare detailed features which reveal that these spines were produced using a sophisticated secretion system that is shared with annelids (earthworms and relatives).

A team of researchers including scientists from the University of Oxford have made an astonishing discovery of a new species of mollusc that lived 500 million years ago. The new fossil, called Shishania aculeata*reveals that the most primitive molluscs were flat, shell-less slugs covered in a protective spiny armour. The findings have been published today in the journal Science.

The new species was found in exceptionally well-preserved fossils from eastern Yunnan Province in southern China dating from a geological Period called the early Cambrian, approximately 514 million years ago. The specimens of Shishania are all only a few centimetres long and are covered in small spikey cones (sclerites) made of chitin, a material also found in the shells of modern crabs, insects, and some mushrooms.

Specimens that were preserved upside down show that the bottom of the animal was naked, with a muscular foot like that of a slug that Shishania would have used to creep around the seafloor over half a billion years ago. Unlike most molluscs, Shishania did not have a shell that covered its body, suggesting that it represents a very early stage in molluscan evolution.

Present-day molluscs have a dizzying array of forms, and include snails and clams and even highly intelligent groups such as squids and octopuses. This diversity of molluscs evolved very rapidly a long time ago, during an event known as the Cambrian Explosion, when all the major groups of animals were rapidly diversifying. This rapid period of evolutionary change means that few fossils have been left behind that chronicle the early evolution of molluscs.

Corresponding author Associate Professor Luke Parry, Department of Earth Sciences, University of Oxford, said: ‘Trying to unravel what the common ancestor of animals as different as a squid and oyster looked like is a major challenge for evolutionary biologists and palaeontologists – one that can’t be solved by studying only species alive today. Shishania gives us a unique view into a time in mollusc evolution for which we have very few fossils, informing us that the very earliest mollusc ancestors were armoured spiny slugs, prior to the evolution of the shells that we see in modern snails and clams.’

Because the body of Shishania was very soft and made of tissues that don’t typically preserve in the fossil record, the specimens were challenging to study, as many of the specimens were poorly preserved.

First author Guangxu Zhang, a recent PhD graduate from Yunnan University in China who discovered the specimens said: ‘At first I thought that the fossils, which were only about the size of my thumb, were not noticeable, but I saw under a magnifying glass that they seemed strange, spiny, and completely different from any other fossils that I had seen. I called it “the plastic bag” initially because it looks like a rotting little plastic bag. When I found more of these fossils and analysed them in the lab I realised that it was a mollusc.’

Associate Professor Parry added: ‘We found microscopic details inside the conical spines covering the body of Shishania that show how they were secreted in life. This sort of information is incredibly rare, even in exceptionally preserved fossils.’

The spines of Shishania show an internal system of canals that are less than a hundredth of a millimetre in diameter. These features show that the cones were secreted at their base by microvilli, tiny protrusions of cells that increase surface area, such as in our intestines where they aid food absorption.

This method of secreting hard parts is akin to a natural 3D printer, allowing many invertebrate animals to secrete hard parts with huge variation of shape and function from providing defence to facilitating locomotion.

Hard spines and bristles are known in some present-day molluscs (such as chitons), but they are made of the mineral calcium carbonate rather than organic chitin as in Shishania. Similar organic chitinous bristles are found in more obscure groups of animals such as brachiopods and bryozoans, which together with molluscs and annelids (earthworms and their relatives) form the group Lophotrochozoa.

Professor Parry added: ‘Shishania tells us that the spines and spicules we see in chitons and aplacophoran molluscs today actually evolved from organic sclerites like those of annelids. These animals are very different from one another today and so fossils like Shishania tell us what they looked like deep in the past, soon after they had diverged from common ancestors.’

Co-author Jakob Vinther at the University of Bristol said: ‘Molluscs today are extraordinarily disparate and they diversified very quickly during the Cambrian Explosion, meaning that we struggle to piece together their early evolutionary history. We know that the common ancestor of all molluscs alive today would have had a single shell, and so Shishania tells us about a very early time in mollusc evolution before the evolution of a shell.’

Co-corresponding author Xiaoya Ma (Yunnan University and University of Exeter) said: ‘This new discovery highlights the treasure trove of early animal fossils that are preserved in the Cambrian rocks of Yunnan Province. Soft bodied molluscs have a very limited fossil record, and so these very rare discoveries tell us a great deal about these diverse animals.’

*Etymology of Shishania aculeata: Shishan refers to Shishan Zhang, for his outstanding contributions to the study of early Cambrian strata and fossils in eastern Yunnan; aculeata (Latin), having spines, prickly.


Complete specimen of Shishania aculeata seen from the dorsal (top) side (left). Spines

covering the body of Shishania aculeata (right). Credit: G Zhang/L Parry.


Artist’s reconstruction of Shishania aculeata as it would have appeared in life as viewed
from the top, side and bottom (left to right). Reconstruction by M. Cawthorne.

Notes:

For media enquiries and interview requests, contact Associate Professor Luke Parry luke.parry@seh.ox.ac.uk

Images relating to the study which can be used in articles can be found at https://drive.google.com/drive/folders/1eLiDU7bDWpVyxNJK9IzevPGL2ORud86n?usp=drive_link  These images are for editorial purposes only and MUST be credited (see captions document in file). They MUST NOT be sold on to third parties.

The study ‘A Cambrian spiny stem mollusk and the deep homology of lophotrochozoan scleritomes’ will be published in the journal Science at 19:00 BST / 14:00 ET Thursday 1 August 2024 at www.science.org/doi/10.1126/science.ado0059   (link will go live when embargo lifts). To view a copy of the study before this, under embargo, contact the Science editorial team at scipak@aaas.org or see the Science press package at https://www.eurekalert.org/press/scipak/

About the University of Oxford

Oxford University has been placed number 1 in the Times Higher Education World University Rankings for the eighth year running, and ​number 3 in the QS World Rankings 2024. At the heart of this success are the twin-pillars of our ground-breaking research and innovation and our distinctive educational offer.

Oxford is world-famous for research and teaching excellence and home to some of the most talented people from across the globe. Our work helps the lives of millions, solving real-world problems through a huge network of partnerships and collaborations. The breadth and interdisciplinary nature of our research alongside our personalised approach to teaching sparks imaginative and inventive insights and solutions.

Through its research commercialisation arm, Oxford University Innovation, Oxford is the highest university patent filer in the UK and is ranked first in the UK for university spinouts, having created more than 300 new companies since 1988. Over a third of these companies have been created in the past five years. The university is a catalyst for prosperity in Oxfordshire and the United Kingdom, contributing £15.7 billion to the UK economy in 2018/19, and supports more than 28,000 full time jobs.


Revolutionary loop heat pipe transports 10 kW of waste heat — No electricity required




Nagoya University
Figure 1 

image: 

Researchers have developed a loop heat pipe that can transport up to 10 kW of heat without the need for electricity.

view more 

Credit: Nagano Lab





A team of researchers from Nagoya University in Japan has developed a loop heat pipe (LHP) that can transport up to 10 kW of heat without the need for electricity. This heat transport capability is the largest in the world. The group's LHP aims to contribute to energy savings and carbon neutrality in various fields, including industrial waste heat recovery, solar heat utilization, electric vehicle (EV) thermal management, and data center cooling. The findings are detailed in the International Journal of Heat and Mass Transfer. 

This LHP surpasses the previous largest loop heat pipe due to enhancements in the evaporator structure. These improvements led to an 18% reduction in size, 1.6 times increase in heat transport capability, and a fourfold increase in heat transfer efficiency compared to the previous LHP developed by Nagoya University. LHPs have been used in manned space flights, electric vehicles, meteorological satellites, and home electronic appliances. 

"This LHP is unprecedented in transporting such a large amount of heat without electricity, achieving the world's largest non-electric heat transport," said Professor Hosei Nagano, a senior researcher involved in the project. "This eliminates the need for the electricity previously consumed by conventional mechanical pumps, allowing for near-perpetual heat transport without electricity." 

The EV industry is seeing a rising demand for energy-efficient cooling methods because of companies' growing awareness of their carbon footprint. LHPs help EVs improve overall efficiency by providing cooling that does not require electricity, reducing the need for electrical power.  

"For electric vehicles, maintaining the inverter temperature is crucial for optimal performance," explained Shawn Somers-Neal, a graduate student involved in the project. "Traditional cooling methods for inverters require energy, but our LHP maintains temperature without electricity. This leads to an increase in efficiency while being able to handle the high heat loads required in industry." 

In an LHP, a working fluid and a porous material called a wick are used to transport heat efficiently over long distances. The wick draws the working fluid to the surface through capillary action. When heat is applied to the evaporator, the fluid on the wick's surface absorbs the heat and turns into vapor. This vapor travels to the condenser, where it releases the heat and condenses back into liquid. The liquid then returns to the compensation chamber, where it contacts the wick again, which draws it back to the surface and continues the cooling cycle. 

The group enhanced the wick section of the LHP by making it thinner, longer, and wider while preserving its high-quality porous properties. They also improved heat transport capabilities by narrowing the channels that allow the vapor to escape from the evaporator and adding additional channels on the sides, thereby increasing the total number of channels. 

"The uniqueness of the loop heat pipe (LHP) is the shape, quality, and size of the wick and the overall performance of the LHP. Usually, when making larger wicks, the quality decreases, but the quality of this wick is similar to that of smaller wicks," explains Professor Nagano. "The wick has cores that help reduce the thickness, leading to less pressure drop and lower operating temperatures."  

The newly developed LHP demonstrated a heat transfer efficiency of more than four times that of existing LHPs during testing. The design was so effective that it transported waste heat over a distance of 2.5 meters without power, using the capillary force generated by the wick. This set a record for non-power heat transport.  

"This pioneering LHP technology is expected to revolutionize energy conservation and carbon neutrality across multiple fields, including factory waste heat recovery, solar heat utilization, electric vehicle heat management, and data center cooling," Somers-Neal said. "The effective saving of factory waste heat marks a significant step towards sustainable energy solutions." 

Climate anomalies may play a major role in driving cholera pandemics



Global climate change could create more opportunities for rise and spread of new cholera strains



PLOS

Climate anomalies may play a major role in driving cholera pandemics 

image: 

Rice fields flooded with riverine water from Meghna river, close to Dacca.

view more 

Credit: Shajal Shaik, https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/



New research suggests that an El Niño event may have aided the establishment and spread of a novel cholera strain during an early 20th-century pandemic, supporting the idea that climate anomalies could create opportunities for the emergence of new cholera strains. Xavier Rodo of Instituto de Salud Global de Barcelona, Spain, and colleagues present these findings in the open-access journal PLOS Neglected Tropical Diseases.

Since 1961, more than 1 million people worldwide have died in an ongoing cholera pandemic, the seventh cholera pandemic to have occurred since 1817. The drivers of past cholera pandemics have been unclear, but one hypothesis holds that anomalous climate conditions may act synergistically with genetic changes of Vibrio cholerae—the bacterium that causes the disease—to facilitate the spread and dominance of new strains.

To help clarify potential links between climate and cholera, Rodo and colleagues applied a variety of statistical and computational tools to historical records of climate conditions and cholera deaths in various regions of former British India during the sixth cholera pandemic, which lasted from 1899 to 1923. They also compared past conditions with climate and cholera data for the ongoing pandemic.

This analysis revealed that anomalous patterns of cholera deaths from 1904 to 1907 occurred alongside out-of-the-ordinary seasonal temperatures and rainfall levels associated with an El Niño event; the timing of these occurrences correlates with the establishment of a new invasive strain during the sixth pandemic. In addition, these historical climate conditions show similarities to strong El Niño events that have been associated with cholera strain changes during the ongoing pandemic.

These findings support the possibility that anomalous climate events could help facilitate the establishment and spread of new cholera strains.

The researchers then explored future possibilities for climate-facilitated emergence of new cholera strains using standard climate prediction models. They found that climate change-driven increases in climate variability and extremes could boost the chances of emergence of novel strains through the end of the current century.

Meanwhile, to deepen understanding of this deadly disease, the scientists call for further research focused on the interplay of cholera evolution and climate anomalies.

Dr. Rodó and co-author Dr. Mercedes Pascual summarize: “Variation in climate conditions or the evolutionary change of a pathogen can be important drivers of major epidemics and pandemics. But these two drivers are typically considered separately in studies seeking to explain the emergence of unusually large outbreaks…here, we present indirect evidence that the two can act together to synergistically underlie the establishment and widespread transmission of a new strain.”

############

In your coverage, please use this URL to provide access to the freely available article in PLOS Neglected Tropical Diseases

http://journals.plos.org/plosntds/article?id=10.1371/journal.pntd.0012275

Citation: Rodó X, Bouma MJ, Rodríguez-Arias M-À, Roy M, De Yebra P, Petrova D, et al. (2024) Strain variation and anomalous climate synergistically influence cholera pandemics. PLoS Negl Trop Dis 18(8): e0012275. https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pntd.0012275

Author Countries: Germany, Spain, United States

Funding: We thank the Indian Institute for Tropical Meteorology at Pune (http://www.tropmet.res.in) for supplying meteorological data and the early support for our cholera work by NSF-NIH (Ecology of Infectious Diseases Program, NSF 0545276 and 0430120) and NOAA (Oceans and Health, NA040AR460019) to M.P. X.R acknowledges the support of the PERIS-PICAT project of the Catalan Dep. Salut and PARA-CLIM-CHANDIRGARGH of the New Indigo EU-India program. We acknowledge support from the Spanish Ministry of Science and Innovation through the “Centro de Excelencia Severo Ochoa 2019–2023” Program (CEX2018-000806-S), and support from the Generalitat de Catalunya through the CERCA Program. The funders had no role in study design, data collection and analysis, decision to publish, or preparation of the manuscript.

 

Climate change is transforming California agriculture - But there are ways to adapt





University of California - Merced



California's agriculture faces challenges from a highly variable climate with temperatures that will increase over the next several decades. Droughts worsening and the Sierra snowpack, integral to the water supply, is volatile.

However, there are a number of ways to mitigate those changes, as outlined in in a new paper coauthored by a group of UC faculty.

The Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, a peer-reviewed journal of the National Academy of Sciences, published a special issue on "Climate Change and California Sustainability - Challenges and Solutions." It includes the paper titled "Cultivating Climate Resilience in California Agriculture: Adaptations to an Increasingly Volatile Water Future."

"Climate change impacts on productivity and profitability of California agriculture are increasing and forebode problems for standard agricultural practices, especially water use norms," lead writer Josué Medellín-Azuara, a UC Merced professor of environmental engineering, said in the paper. "In the face of clear conflicts among competing interests, we consider ongoing and potential sustainable and equitable solutions, with particular attention to how technology and policy can facilitate progress."

Though California's soil is among the most fertile on Earth, at first glance the state might seem a poor choice for farming: Much of the state doesn't see rainfall for six months of the year. But toward the beginning of the 20 th century, irrigation infrastructure and pumping allowed cultivation of water-intensive summer crops. Now the state produces $60 billion worth of agricultural products each year, according to the California Department of Food and Agriculture.

The multidisciplinary team of coauthors included economists Kurt Schwabe from UC Riverside and Daniel Sumner from UC Davis, agroecologist Amélie Gaudin from UC Davis, and water systems engineer Alvar Escriva-Bou, who works with both UC Davis and UCLA.

Researchers identified three key areas of action to help reduce California agriculture's vulnerabilities to climate change: water demand, water supply and the institutions that govern its use.

On the demand side, how and when water is delivered can have a major impact on how much is used.

"More efficient watering, fallowing land when needed and changing the crop mix will likely reduce overall water demand by agriculture," according to the paper, although the authors caution that proposed farm-level efficiencies may not lead to overall savings of any appreciable degree.

Over the past four decades, agricultural water use in California has decreased by nearly 15% while overall farm revenue has increased by nearly 40%, the researchers found.

On the supply side, researchers listed options that include better capture and use of flood water, maintaining healthy soils, and effectively monitoring and responding to extreme weather events. Groundwater recharge, water recycling and reuse, and desalination also provide opportunities to enhance supply. Another option, trading water with areas that have more of it, can help reallocate water supplies to reduce costs of both temporary and long-term shortfalls.

Institutions have a vital role to play in providing data, information and research.

"Investments in water-related data and information platforms have the potential for large payoffs by helping entities make more informed decisions," the researchers wrote. "By narrowing crucial information gaps, agencies may improve prospects for agriculture, ecosystems, and underrepresented communities as they confront less reliable and potentially lower overall, water supply allocations in the future."

Research and development conducted at universities, private businesses and government has saved resources and improved environmental outcomes, the researchers found. They advocate developing a coherent research agenda to better integrate climate projections, pest and disease forecasting, soil ecosystems, new genotypes and system designs into agricultural management.

"Though climate change presents a more variable and uncertain future, it provides opportunities to adapt agricultural landscapes to better steward the environment," the researchers wrote. "Bold measures are urgently needed as water availability limits have already been exceeded and adaptation pathways adequate to address these challenges require faster interventions than current trends. Approaches that decrease exposures to stress, reduce vulnerabilities, and enhance stress resistance and recovery, are important for California to address its climate change challenges."

The paper was partially supported by grants from the California Department of Food and Agriculture for drought research, and the USDA-NIFA-funded Secure Water Future collaborative.

 

Born to modulate: Researchers reveal origins of climate-controlling particles


Ephemeral and mysterious, aerosol particles burden climate projections with uncertainty. New particle formation pathways developed by PNNL scientists lift the veil.



DOE/Pacific Northwest National Laboratory





Aerosol particles are tiny. Swirling suspended in the air around us, most are smaller than the smallest bug, thinner than the thinnest hair on your head, gossamer specks practically invisible to the naked eye. Newly formed ones are nano-sized. Yet their influence is gargantuan. 

They determine the color of sunsets. They inflict over three million premature deaths each year. And the power they hold over our climate is massive. 

Despite their outsized effect, aerosols are shrouded in mystery. How do new aerosol particles come to be? Where are they born, and under what conditions? Such questions have troubled climate scientists for decades and imbued climate models with lingering uncertainty.                                       

In new work, a team led by scientists at the Department of Energy’s Pacific Northwest National Laboratory have finally answered some of the most fundamental questions about how new aerosol particles come to exist. By accounting for molecular-level interactions between substances that make up these tiny particles in an Earth system model, the team, whose work is carried out under the project named EAGLES (Enabling Aerosol-cloud interactions at GLobal convection-permitting scalES), achieved three major milestones.

They integrated 11 new pathways by which new aerosol particles form into a global climate model, identified where in the world those pathways are unfolding, and assessed their potential impacts on Earth’s climate.

“Properly representing new particle formation has been a thorn in our sides for quite some time,” said Earth scientist and the principal investigator of EAGLES, Po-Lun Ma. “Now that we’ve identified these new mechanisms, our results stand to do two important things: substantially dial down what has been the largest source of uncertainty in aerosol-climate science to date and improve our ability to predict how the Earth system could change.”

Their results were recently published in Nature. The work represents a collaborative effort across many institutions.

Particle hotspots 

Aerosol particles come about in different ways. Some, known as primary aerosols, are ejected straight into the atmosphere, like dust from a desert or ash from a volcano. Others are born in the sky, products of gases that intermingle in the atmospheric milieu—these are the particles that claim the EAGLES team’s attention. 

New particles aren’t born just anywhere; there are hotspots. Much of the action happens above forests, like the rainforests of the Central Amazon and Southeast Asia. 

There, “clean” air free of primary aerosols allows for the right kind of chemical intermingling that gives way to new particles. Scientists have detected huge concentrations of new particles above these forests.

But climate models today are partly blind to these big particle peaks. When pressed to estimate how many particles are present or where in the atmosphere they show up, even the best models greatly underestimate their abundance or misidentify at which altitudes they appear. 

Thanks to the new pathways put together by the EAGLES team, however, this blind spot is now being made clear. When the team plugged the pathways into DOE’s Earth system model, E3SM, the particle peaks matched what they had seen in real-world observations.

Not only did the revised model correctly simulate the quantity of these particles, it also matched where researchers had found them during field campaigns, correctly identifying that many of the new particles show up in the upper troposphere. The team found similar success in matching model predictions to real-world measurements in other hotspots, like above oceans and cities.

When they took a worldwide view, the team found the average global concentration of these particles was nearly triple the amount estimated using traditional methods. 

Climate-controlling clouds 

Aerosols and clouds have a close-knit relationship. Aerosol particles are the seeds of clouds. Atmospheric moisture condenses on aerosol particle surfaces, one water molecule clotting after another like strands of cotton candy layering atop a cone. 

A particle’s properties—its chemical composition, its size and structure—shape the traits of the resulting cloud that forms around it. One particle type might make its corresponding cloud more or less likely to rain. Another might determine whether a cloud reflects more or less sunlight, in turn determining whether the Earth’s atmosphere warms more or less. 

In this way, clouds and aerosol particles control much of our weather and climate. They can warm, cool or even alter the structure and flow of the Earth’s atmosphere. 

Many scientists believe that new particles—the kind the EAGLES team is trying to understand—make up roughly half the world’s seeds that later become clouds. In the new work, however, the team shows that these particles could, in some regions, be responsible for even more. 

Over the tropical and mid-latitude oceans, locally generated new particles could account for up to 80 percent of the material upon which clouds condense. Over Europe and the Eastern United States, they could account for 65 percent of the seed material for clouds. 

The role particles play in the climate response 

Understanding how aerosols influence Earth’s climate is a key part of forecasting how our world will change. As nations seek to curb global warming by reducing emissions, the climate will respond in turn. And improving climate models to closely mirror the complexity of the Earth system, said Ma, is imperative in predicting the climate response.

“Our overarching goal is to create increasingly realistic representations of the climate system,” said Ma. “And aerosols have been a major hurdle in our path toward that goal. We rely so much on Earth system models—to test emissions scenarios and predict climate responses. The more closely they mirror reality, the more confident we can be in our predictions.”

Although much mystery remains around aerosol particles, said Earth scientist Hailong Wang, a coauthor of the new work, researchers are continually chipping away at that uncertainty.

“We can’t confidently say what the full impact of their presence or absence will be until we have a solid, mechanistic understanding of aerosol particles,” said Wang. “And this research marks a significant step toward that understanding.” 

This work, “Global variability in atmospheric new particle formation mechanisms,” was supported by DOE’s Biological and Environmental Research program within the Office of Science. Resources for modeling were obtained from the National Energy Research Scientific Computing Center, which is supported by DOE’s Advanced Scientific Computing program.

In addition to Ma and Wang, PNNL coauthors include Kai Zhang, Manish Shrivastava, Shuaiqi Tang, Jerome Fast, and Balwinder Singh. The findings represent a collaborative effort across multiple institutions, including Tsinghua University, the National Center for Atmospheric Research, Carnegie Mellon University, the California Institute of Technology, the Ocean University of China, Nanjing University, Xiamen University, and Fudan University. 

Journal

DOI

Article Title

Not the day after tomorrow: Why we can't predict the timing of climate tipping points




Technical University of Munich (TUM)





A new study published in Science Advances reveals that uncertainties are currently too large to accurately predict exact tipping times for critical Earth system components like the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC), polar ice sheets, or tropical rainforests. These tipping events, which might unfold in response to human-caused global warming, are characterized by rapid, irreversible climate changes with potentially catastrophic consequences. However, as the new study shows, predicting when these events will occur is more difficult than previously thought.

Climate scientists from the Technical University of Munich (TUM) and the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK) have identified three primary sources of uncertainty. First, predictions rely on assumptions regarding the underlying physical mechanisms, as well as regarding future human actions to extrapolate past data into the future. These assumptions can be overly simplistic and lead to significant errors. Second, long-term, direct observations of the climate system are rare and the Earth system components in question may not be suitably represented by the data. Third, historical climate data is incomplete. Huge data gaps, especially for the longer past, and the methods used to fill these gaps can introduce errors in the statistics used to predict possible tipping times. 

To illustrate their findings, the authors examined the AMOC, a crucial ocean current system. Previous predictions from historical data suggested a collapse could occur between 2025 and 2095. However, the new study revealed that the uncertainties are so large that these predictions are not reliable. Using different fingerprints and data sets, predicted tipping times for the AMOC ranged from 2050 to 8065 even if the underlying mechanistic assumptions were true. Knowing that the AMOC might tip somewhere within a 6000-year window isn't practically useful, and this large range highlights the complexity and uncertainty involved in such predictions.

The researchers conclude that while the idea of predicting climate tipping points is appealing, the reality is fraught with uncertainties. The current methods and data are not up to the task. “Our research is both a wake-up call and a cautionary tale,” says lead author Maya Ben-Yami. “There are things we still can’t predict, and we need to invest in better data and a more in-depth understanding of the systems in question. The stakes are too high to rely on shaky predictions.”

While the study by Ben-Yami and colleagues shows that we cannot reliably predict tipping events, the possibility of such events cannot be ruled out either. The authors also stress that statistical methods are still very good at telling us which parts of the climate have become more unstable. This includes not only the AMOC, but also the Amazon rainforest and ice sheets. “The large uncertainties imply that we need to be even more cautious than if we were able to precisely estimate a tipping time. We still need to do everything we can to reduce our impact on the climate, first and foremost by cutting greenhouse gas emissions. Even if we can’t predict tipping times, the probability for key Earth system components to tip still increases with every tenth of a degree of warming,” concludes co-author Niklas Boers.

_

This research is part of the ClimTip project, which aims to enhance our understanding of climate tipping points.

For additional information or to schedule an interview with the researchers, please contact Niklas Boers at boers@pik-potsdam.de.

More details, including a copy of the paper, can be found online at the Science Advances press package at https://www.eurekalert.org/press/vancepak/. You will need your user ID and password to access this information.

_

Reference: 

M. Ben-Yami, A. Morr, S. Bathiany, N. Boers: Uncertainties too large to predict tipping times of major Earth system components from historical data, Science Advances (2024).

The article will be made available at https://www.science.org/doi/10.1126/sciadv.adl4841 once it is published.