Monday, August 12, 2024

 

Can Geoengineering Stop Global Warming?

  • Geoengineering experiments like cloud brightening and sulfur dioxide injection are being explored to cool the planet.

  • These technologies raise concerns about unintended consequences and could discourage necessary decarbonization.

  • International regulations and standards are needed before large-scale geoengineering is deployed.

This year, a trial is being run to see if using technology to deflect the sun could help cool the planet. Meanwhile, another scientist hopes to spray sulfur dioxide into the stratosphere to reduce global temperatures. These are just some of the innovative trials taking place to curb the effects of global warming until greater decarbonization is seen. The question now is whether these geoengineering, delay-oriented technologies will have a significant effect on global warming, as a mid-term control measure, or whether they present a major risk to a meaningful green transition. 

Geoengineering refers to deliberate, large-scale interventions in Earth's natural systems to counteract climate change or mitigate its effects. These interventions are typically split into two groups, carbon dioxide removal (CDR) and solar radiation management (SRM). The CDR approach focuses on removing carbon dioxide from the Earth’s atmosphere, using technologies such as carbon capture and storage (CCS) technologies and ocean geoengineering, as well as afforestation activities. Meanwhile, SRM uses technologies to reflect a portion of the sun's energy away from Earth, aimed at lowering the Earth’s temperature.

In April, scientists from the University of Washington conducted the first outdoor SRM technology test in the U.S. The trial, in San Francisco Bay, saw a machine expel a fine mist of tiny aerosol particles hundreds of feet in the air, across the flight deck of a decommissioned aircraft carrier. The aim was to create the correct size salt aerosols in an open-air environment to achieve cloud brightening – changing the composition of the clouds above the world’s oceans – to temporarily reduce the temperature on Earth.

This is not the only SRM experiment taking place, as many other scientists and institutions strive to delay the impact of global warming until meaningful decarbonization takes place. David Keith, who leads a Climate Systems Engineering Initiative at the University of Chicago, believes he can help reduce the Earth’s temperature by using sulfur dioxide. Keith cites the global cooling effects of the sulfur dioxide spewed out by volcanoes as the impetus for his experiment. In 1991, Mount Pinatubo in the Philippines released 17 million tons of sulfur dioxide into the stratosphere, which reflected sunlight away from the Earth. This created a decrease in average temperatures in the Northern Hemisphere by roughly one degree Fahrenheit in the following year. Keith now believes that a similar reaction can be achieved artificially to help delay global warming. 

Unlike the localized San Francisco Bay experiment, Keith’s approach would not be limited to a specific area, rather, it would be used in the stratosphere, which could influence the temperature worldwide. While this could provide an effective means of lowering global temperatures, scientists are uncertain of the knock-on effects on weather systems around the globe. Further, the sulfur dioxide being pumped into the stratosphere would eventually fall to earth, which could cause respiratory problems. David Suzuki, a Canadian environmentalist, suggested, “The whole notion of spraying sulphur compounds to reflect sunlight is arrogant and simplistic… There are unintended consequences of powerful technologies like these, and we have no idea what they will be.”

Many scientists are now using geoengineering technologies to curb the effects of global warming to buy time while governments attempt to decarbonize their economies. However, there is widespread criticism over the use of SMR technologies, due to concerns about artificially altering the Earth’s temperature, as well as discouraging the decarbonization that ultimately needs to take place. Similar criticism has been seen over the use of CCS technologies, which, it is argued, give oil and gas companies an excuse to keep pumping fossil fuels for longer. 

Nevertheless, SMR and CCS technologies are receiving huge amounts of funding from private companies and governments worldwide. The White House has pumped billions into various geoengineering and CCS in recent years, and several other political leaders around the globe are doing the same. However, some regions of the world are approaching geoengineering with caution. The EU called for a thorough analysis of the risks of geoengineering last year, suggesting that international regulations should be established for the eventual deployment of the technology.

While there is great optimism around the possible success of SMR technologies, there are major concerns about their potential impact on the world’s weather systems. Localized SMR systems are unlikely to be very harmful, but they could lead the way to more advanced geoengineering systems being used on a larger scale. This suggests the need for the creation of international standards and regulations for the geoengineering industry before an experiment is allowed to take place that may have an impact on global weather systems. It is also important that governments do not allow these types of technologies to detract from long-term decarbonization efforts, by allowing companies to ignore pressure to support a meaningful green transition.

By  Felicity Bradstock for Oilprice.com

Report: Biomass Plant Is The UK’s Top Carbon Polluter

BIOMASS NO DIFFERENT THAN COAL

A biomass power station operated by energy group Drax is the UK’s top emitter of carbon dioxide, emitting more than four times the emissions of the UK’s remaining coal power plant, a new report by climate think tank Ember showed on Friday.  

Drax power station in North Yorkshire in England is burning wood for electricity and emitted last year more CO2 that the next four power stations combined, according to Ember’s new annual ranking of official data.

The report collated official data from the UK Emissions Trading Scheme registry and company annual reports to produce an annual ranking of emitters by specific asset, and by company.

Drax power plant is the largest single source of carbon emissions in the UK, followed by Port Talbot Steelworks and Pembroke gas power station, Ember’s ranking showed.  

Drax power station emitted 11.5 million tonnes (Mt) of carbon dioxide last year, making it by far the largest single CO2 emitter in the UK, responsible for the equivalent of 2.9% of total UK territorial emissions, per Ember’s analysis.  

That’s despite the fact that Drax receives public funding earmarked for low-carbon projects.

Drax power station generated less power in 2023 than in previous years, a fall from 12.7 TWh in 2022. This means Drax produces just 8% of renewable electricity in the UK and less than 4% of the UK’s total electricity, according to Ember.

Over the same period, Drax claimed over $1.27 billion (£1.0 billion) in profits, after the Electricity Generator Levy, commonly known as the windfall tax, was applied.

“Wood pellets have an equivalent carbon intensity to coal but are burned at higher volumes due to their low energy density, meaning that burning wood emits more carbon dioxide than coal or gas, per kWh of electricity,” Ember said.

A spokesperson for Drax told the Guardian that Ember’s findings are “flawed” and ignored the company’s “widely accepted and internationally recognised approach to carbon accounting.”

By Charles Kennedy for Oilprice.com

Kazakhstan Now Seeks $160B from International Oil Companies

Kazakhstan’s legal battle against international oil majors involved in the Kashagan oil field has intensified, with the nation’s claims now exceeding $160 billion. The dispute centers around allegations of corrupt deals and financial mismanagement, adding another $10 billion to the already massive demands.

The Kashagan project, a massive offshore field in the Caspian Sea, has been plagued by delays and cost overruns since its inception over two decades ago. Major players in the industry, including Eni SpA, Shell Plc, ExxonMobil Corp., and TotalEnergies SE, are caught in the crossfire as Kazakhstan seeks compensation for what it claims are lost revenues and broken promises.

The arbitration tribunal recently decided to consolidate the claims into a single case, rejecting the companies’ requests to handle them separately. This has put additional pressure on the firms involved, as they face a united front from Kazakhstan in the ongoing legal proceedings.

The Kashagan field, discovered in the late 1990s, was hailed as one of the largest oil finds in recent history. However, its development has been anything but smooth. Technical challenges, including harsh environmental conditions and high concentrations of hydrogen sulfide in the reservoir, have plagued the project from the start. The concentration of hydrogen sulfide straight out of the well is estimated at 17%—a level at which even just a few breaths can be lethal.

The initial budget for the project of $10 billion soon ballooned to $55 billion, with the field only beginning production in 2013—eight years behind schedule.

Even after production started, the project faced setbacks. A pipeline leak just a month after the first oil was pumped led to a shutdown, with operations resuming only in 2016. Despite these challenges, Kashagan produced an average of 400,000 barrels per day last year, far below the once-anticipated peak of 1.5 million barrels per day.

By Julianne Geiger for Oilprice.com

 CAPITALI$M IS PRICE FIXING

U.S. Refiners Plan Cutbacks on Lower Margins

U.S. oil refiners are planning to reduce output during the third quarter amid falling margins as demand begins declining from its seasonal peak.

Bloomberg reported that Marathon Petroleum planned to reduce its capacity utilization rate to 90% at all its 13 refineries, which is down from 97% for the second quarter. PBF Eergy was going to cut its processing rates to the lowest in three years.

Valero Energy would be reducing its operating rate from 3 million barrels daily to 2.86 million bpd. This is the lowest processing rate in two years. Phillips 66, for its part, was planning to cut processing rates to the low 90s in terms of capacity, which would be down from 98% in the second quarter—the highest in five years.

“Compressed refining margins are setting up the stage for another round of heavy refinery maintenance in the US during the fall season,” Vikas Dwivedi, global oil and gas strategist at Macquarie, told Bloomberg. “That’s going to weigh on balances and may add to crude builds in the US for the rest of the year.”

U.S. crude oil inventories have been declining for six weeks in a row now, suggesting healthy demand for fuels during peak driving season. However, as the summer ends, demand normally starts declining as well, motivating refiners’ adjustments in production.

Pressure on refining margins is an international concern in the industry, mostly because of China’s significant processing capacity, which has pressured margins elsewhere, even as Chinese refiners scale back on production.

According to Bloomberg NEF, global crude oil inventories are expected to swell by the end of the year despite the addition of new refining capacity, notably Nigeria’s Dangote refinery and Mexico’s Dos Bocas facility. The rise in crude oil stocks would come from production ramp-up in Guyana, according to Bloomberg’s energy forecaster.

By Irina Slav for Oilprice.com

 


Morgan Stanley Opens Doors to Bitcoin ETFs for Wealthy Clients

  • Morgan Stanley is now offering two Bitcoin ETFs to its clients with a net worth of at least $1.5 million and a high-risk profile.

  • The move is seen as a response to client demand and an attempt to follow an evolving marketplace for digital assets.

  • Morgan Stanley will monitor clients' Bitcoin holdings to prevent excessive exposure to the asset class.

Morgan Stanley has officially begun pitching shares of two exchange-traded bitcoin funds - with some 15,000 financial advisors given the green light to recommend BlackRock's IShares Bitcoin Trust and Fidelity's Wise Origin Bitcoin Fund to clients.

That said, the firm will only allow clients with a net worth of at least $1.5 million, a high-risk profile, and an interest in speculative investments to take part in the ETFs, and will only be allowed in taxable brokerage accounts vs. retirement accounts, according to CNBC.

Morgan Stanley made the move in response to demand from clients and in an attempt to follow an evolving marketplace for digital assets, said the people, who declined to be identified speaking about the bank’s internal policies.

The bank will monitor clients' bitcoin holdings to prevent 'excessive exposure' to the asset class.

In January, the SEC approved applications for 11 spot bitcoin ETFs, marking the arrival of an investment vehicle for bitcoin that's far easier for normie boomers to access than figuring out how to directly own the digital asset.

Meanwhile, other major banks such as Goldman, JPMorgan, Bank of America, and Wells Fargo continue to restrict their advisers from pitching bitcoin ETFs - only allowing clients access if explicitly requested.

Morgan is also observing a slew of newly approved ETFs - which means the bank may also consider adding some of the new Ethereum offerings for clients if the BTC ETFs do well.

As Bitcoin Magazine notes, the bank's decision marks a 'significant step' towards institutional adoption of Bitcoin in traditional finance, and "Morgan Stanley made the move in response to demand from clients and in an attempt to follow an evolving marketplace for digital assets, said the people, who declined to be identified speaking about the bank’s internal policies."

By Zerohedge.com

 HUNGARY

Liberty Steel to Target Automotive, Defense Sectors

  • Liberty Steel's Dunaújváros plant plans to shift focus to the automotive and defense sectors by replacing blast furnaces with electric arc furnaces.

  • Liberty's project is backed by €1.3 billion in preliminary funding from Chinese companies, with plans to double the plant's current capacity to 3 million metric tons of crude steel annually.

  • Liberty Steel acquired the Dunaújváros plant, formerly Dunaferr, in October 2023 for €65 million, beating out several international competitors.

According to Liberty’s Steel’s parent company, GFG Alliance, the steel industry leader’s flats producer at Dunaújváros plans to target the automotive and defense sectors. This shift will occur upon the commissioning of two electric arc furnaces, which will replace the two blast furnaces currently occupying the Hungarian site.

A source at the company told MetalMiner that Dunaújváros had some past exposure to the automotive sector with its finished products, but has mainly targeted the construction and infrastructure sectors. They also added that representatives from auto manufacturers have already visited the plant.

GFG Secures Funding for New Steel Manufacturing Initiatives

The comments follow GFG Alliance’s August 5 announcement that Chinese group CISDI Engineering has received the equivalent of €1.3 billion ($1.43 billion) in preliminary backing from compatriot company Export and Credit Insurance Corporation (Sinosure) to finance the project. That backing will allow CISDI to receive financing as well as export and install the new equipment at Liberty Dunaújváros.

“The agreement, in principle, will facilitate further grant support and guarantees to finalize the capital structure behind this landmark investment,” GFG noted. They went on to state that upgrades to existing hot rolling and galvanizing production lines and the establishment of new lines to cater to defense and automotive applications are also part of the plans for Dunaújváros.

However, MetalMiner’s source declined to say if there were any discussions of financial aid on the project with either the Hungarian government or the European Union. They added that there is also no timeline for building and commissioning the new hot end and revamped rolling mills.

Liberty originally announced the signing of an agreement with CISDI to conduct a feasibility study on the furnaces back in in mid-May.

In 2023, Hungary’s motor vehicle production totaled 507,225 units. According to information from macroeconomic data company CEIC, this reflected a 14% increase from 441,729 units in 2022. While the latest figure indicates a 3.66% drop from the 2016 peak of 526,500 units, CEIC data showed that it is over 6.35 times higher than the record low of 79,792 units reported in 1997.

Besides local manufacturers like RÁBA Automotive Group, global brands Audi, Suzuki, and Mercedes-Benz have manufacturing facilities in Hungary. In fact, an April 9 report by news portal Hungary Today stated that starting in 2025, Mercedes-Benz aims to double its Hungarian production capacity once it completes construction of a new plant at Kecskemét, which lies about 80 kilometers east of Dunaújváros by road. The report noted that the German multinational originally began operations at Kecskemét in 2012, and produced a total of 150,000 vehicles in 2022.

In September 2023, the Resource Policy and Planning Board for NATO, the latter of which Hungary joined in 1999, recommended a total military budget ceiling of €4.4 million ($4.8 billion) by 2030 — more than twice the €2.13 billion ($2.33 billion) recommended for 2024. The company stated that the planned 80-metric tonne EAFs will cut carbon emissions by 80%. The furnaces will use ferrous scrap and DRI to pour up to 3 million metric tonnes of crude steel per year for casting into high-quality slab for further rolling, which is double Dunaújváros’ current capacity.

Dunaújváros is about 85 kilometers south of the Hungarian capital Budapest. The site has two blast furnaces that can produce about 1.4 million metric tons per year of pig iron, though they remain blown down. Meanwhile, two 135-ton basic oxygen furnaces at the site can produce about 1.6 million metric tons of crude steel annually.

The inside source told MetalMiner that Dunaújváros’ rolling lines are continuing to operate, but at very low levels. “We are working on a campaign-by-campaign basis,” the source added. Dunaújváros’ rolled product assortment includes hot and cold rolled coil and hot dipped galvanized steel. The plant also produces castings, forgings, machining, gears, heat treatment, steel structures and weldments according to customer specifications.

Liberty completed its acquisition of the Hungarian steelmaker, then called Dunaferr, in October of 2023. London-headquartered Liberty offered €65 million ($70.5 million) for the plant, beating out several contenders, including Ukrainian group Metinvest, India’s Vulcan Steel, Swiss-based Trasteel Trading and local company Trinec Property.

Ukraine’s Industrial Union of Donbass (ISD) originally acquired the plant in 2004. However, Russia’s VEB.RF, previously known as Vnesheconombank, ended its funding in 2008 due to the global financial crisis.

By Christopher Rivituso via AGMetalminer.com


The Oil Nation Hosting COP29

  • Azerbaijan, the host of COP29, has a long history of oil production and remains heavily reliant on fossil fuels.

  • The government is investing in renewable energy projects and aims to increase the share of green electricity to 30% by 2030.

  • Environmentalists are skeptical of Azerbaijan's commitment to a green transition, citing its ongoing oil and gas production and exports.

Azerbaijan is well known for its strong link to the oil industry, having produced ‘black gold’ for well over a century. It was a pioneer in fossil fuel production and continues to rely heavily on crude to this day. Now, as host of the COP29 climate summit, Azerbaijan is looking to clean up its act by investing in clean energy projects and helping developing countries to do the same. However, it is important to understand the significant role that oil has played in the former Soviet state and its ongoing commitment to fossil fuels.

Baku, the capital of Azerbaijan, was the world’s first oil town, with wells being drilled as early as the 1840s. It was once known as ‘Black City’ having long been covered in soot from oil industry operations. Refineries were developed starting in 1959, and its oil industry went from strength to strength from there. Azerbaijan remains a major oil power, with fossil fuels contributing 90 percent of the country’s exports. It continues to be in the top 10 most oil- and gas-dependent economies worldwide. 

In the 1800s, the explorer Marco Polo is reported to have been describing Baku when he wrote, “Near the Georgian border there is a spring from which gushes a stream of oil in such abundance that a hundred ships may load there at once. This oil is not good to eat, but it is good for burning and as a salve for men and camels affected with itch or scab.” Russia and other foreign entrepreneurs invested heavily in the development of Azerbaijan’s oil industry from the mid to late 1800s through the establishment of oil production operations and the construction of pipelines for exportation, which led to a century-long boom.

Despite its longstanding history with crude, over the last two decades, the government has invested heavily in transforming Baku. It funded the renovation of many of the city’s buildings to create bright, beige facades in a bid to transform Baku into a “White City”. Now, the government is hoping to continue its clean-up act on the energy industry. President Ilham Aliyev recently stated that Azerbaijan is “in the active phase of green transition”. Azerbaijan is making no pretense about its strong link with oil and natural gas and plans to continue producing fossil fuels. However, Aliyev has been vocal about his plans for a green transition, particularly going into COP29. The aim is to produce around 30 percent of the country’s electricity from green sources by the end of the decade, which would be a major increase from just 7 percent at present. This will be achieved through the development of several large-scale solar farms around Baku. As well as developing its domestic renewable energy sector, the government hopes to export some of this clean energy to Georgia via an interconnector, as well as to Romania and Hungary under the Black Sea. 

Azerbaijan has largely substituted oil for gas when it comes to exports, which it views as a cleaner fossil fuel. The government says that its increase in gas exports in recent years helped Europe shift its reliance away from Russia, following the invasion of Ukraine and subsequent sanctions on Russian energy. There was a sharp rise in demand from several Western states in response to the Russia-Ukraine war, which helped boost Azerbaijan’s export levels and revenue. 

While Azerbaijan continues to rely heavily on oil and gas, the government has emphasized its commitment to international climate goals, such as striving to limit global temperatures to 1.5oC above pre-industrial levels. The government is committed to producing fossil fuels while demand remains high, with a focus on the country’s natural gas output, but aims to also decarbonize the economy by investing in renewable energy and clean tech to support an eventual global green transition. 

However, many environmentalists believe that Azerbaijan’s energy strategy is at odds with its climate pledges. It is attracting much of the same criticism as the COP28 host country The UAE, with many suggesting that to give major oil states such a strong role in international climate policy is detrimental to a green transition unless they are willing to bring about real change at home. There are no plans to end oil and gas production any time soon in the UAE, Azerbaijan, or Brazil – the host of the following COP30 summit, which environmentalists believe greatly undermines many of the aims of the conference. 

In June, the government announced plans to invest $2 billion in green projects. The Minister of Energy, Parviz Shahbazov, stated, “By 2027, in the first phase of partnership with energy companies, we are planning to realize close to 2 GW of new renewable volumes, which will increase the share of renewables in installed capacity to 33 percent.” While this demonstrates the aim to diversify Azerbaijan’s energy mix, Shahbazov emphasized the government’s ongoing commitment to oil and gas, which will likely draw criticism from many international actors going into COP29. 

By Felicity Bradstock for Oilprice.com

The Ugly Underbelly of Critical Mineral Mining

  • Illegal mining for critical minerals is on the rise globally, driven by the green energy boom.

  • Criminal gangs are profiting from the extraction of minerals like tin, copper, and manganese in regions like Brazil's Amazon.

  • Governments and international organizations must collaborate to combat illegal mining and ensure sustainable mineral supply chains.

As the demand for critical minerals increases, so too does the amount of illegal mining activities taking place. There is a mining boom like we have not seen in decades, as governments and energy companies pursue new mining projects to extract the critical minerals needed to support the global green transition. Companies are looking to mine a wide array of metals and minerals, such as lithium, cobalt, and zinc, for the manufacturing of lithium-ion batteries, renewable energy equipment and other clean technologies. The increase in mining worldwide is also attracting unwanted attention from criminals looking to get their piece of the critical minerals pie by conducting illegal mining. 

Brazil has long suffered from illegal mining, and it is becoming even more prevalent as the demand for valuable metals and minerals rises. One of the recent crackdowns caught criminals extracting large quantities of cassiterite, which is the main ore of tin. Although it is less talked about than other critical minerals, tin is a key component for the coating of solar panels, lithium-ion batteries, and solder for a wide range of electronics. The price of tin rose by 29 percent in the first six months of this year and Brazil is one of its biggest exporters. 

Illegal mining activities in Brazil’s Amazon region have increased, as more companies have invested in conventional mining activities in the area. As well as cassiterite, criminal gangs are also looking to extract manganese and copper. The number of mining projects has risen following the recent introduction of initiatives to attract critical mining investment by the Brazilian government.  

The government has long tried to quash Illegal gold mining activities across Brazil, but criminal gangs continue to search for gold as well as other critical minerals now. While the price of cassiterite is significantly lower than gold, at around $14 to $21 a kilo, it is much more abundant. Gangs can extract up to 300kg of cassiterite a day on the land of the Indigenous Yanomami people, compared to just 4kg or so of gold a month. The mining of cassiterite can help finance illegal gold mining, making it a vital activity for criminal gangs. These gangs pay truck drivers to illegally smuggle the cassiterite across Brazil’s state borders, hidden among other products, such as fruit and fish. In 2022, 60 tonnes of cassiterite en route to China were seized in one single operation at Manaus port. 

The police continue to seize huge quantities of illegally mined critical minerals hidden in trucks on Brazil’s highways every day. In June this year, the police seized 23,000 tonnes of manganese that was in the process of being exported to China. This led federal police to close an illegal mining site in Pará state. Authorities in the state also raided several copper and gold sites, where they reported that workers were operating under slave-like conditions

Caio Luchini, the federal police chief in Roraima, the northernmost state of Brazil, emphasized the difficulties in cracking down on new illegal mining activities. Luchini said it is easier to hide the illegal origins of cassiterite and similar minerals than of gold, which has “more rigid controls”. He added, “With this boom of cassiterite and other minerals, it is worth re-analysing our legislation.” 

Brazil is not the only country in Latin America battling illegal mining. In the ‘Lithium Triangle’, a region of abundant lithium reserves located across Argentina, Bolivia and Chile, there are fears of a rise in illegal mining activities as gangs look to profit from the extraction of one of the most sought-after critical minerals. Meanwhile, in Panama this month, the government warned of an increased risk of illegal mining following the closure of operations at the Cobre Panamá copper mine in November last year. Panama's security minister, Frank Ábrego, stated “Inappropriate methods and highly dangerous chemicals such as cyanide are used for these practices. There is information that organized criminal groups are involved in this illegal business.” 

The market for these critical minerals is huge, as countries worldwide work on strengthening their supply chains to ensure they have enough steady enough supply of metals and minerals to meet the growing demand. Criminal leaders have found innovative ways to use legitimate trade routes to export illegal minerals, making it harder to track their activities. For example, recent reports suggest that freeports, originally aimed at providing tax-free storage and transit of goods, have been used by criminal leaders to sell illegally acquired critical minerals worldwide.

In April this year, the UN led a panel that aimed to support over 100 countries to establish guidelines to prevent some of the environmental degradation and human rights abuses linked with the mining of critical minerals. The guidelines would address the increase in instances of illegal labor and human rights violations linked with the industry. However, significantly more still needs to be done to tackle the rise of illegal mining activities in key mining regions worldwide. While governments attempt to quash illegal mining within their borders, the introduction of more rigorous international mineral exportation standards could help reduce the problem by encouraging greater supply chain transparency to track minerals from extraction to export.

By Felicity Bradstock for Oilprice.com