Thursday, August 15, 2024

Biden, Harris hail lower Medicare drug prices and each other

President Joe Biden and Vice President Kamala Harris appeared together in Maryland, touting changes to Medicare's drug purchasing system and each other's credentials, as the pair settle into their new campaign roles.


President Joe Biden and Vice President Kamala Harris made a joint appearance in Maryland, not so far from Washington and the White House, on Thursday.

Nominally, it was to announce changes to the way Medicare acquires prescription drugs, with the government saying it drastically reduces the prices they're paying.

But the event also morphed into mutual praise and campaign rhetoric, as the pair shared a stage just a few weeks after Biden's decision to withdraw from the race and Harris emerging in his place.

"She can make one hell of a president," Biden said of his 2020 running mate, saying the goal for the November 5 vote was to "beat the hell out of" the Republican opponent.

Biden, Harris hold first event since candidate switch 05:01


Harris, meanwhile, delivered more brief remarks in a show of deference to the president, saying it had been her honor to serve under the "most extraordinary human being."

"There's a lot of love in this room for our president," Harris, set to be formally confirmed at the Democrats' party convention next week in Chicago, said.

US says Medicare can now source key drugs far more cheaply

Biden and Harris presented negotiated lower prices for 10 of the most commonly purchased prescription drugs used by Medicare—in one case, for what the US government claims to be a 79% savings.

The change was a part of the far-reaching "Inflation Reduction Act," signed into law in 2022, and the new prices should go into effect starting next year.

The US government estimates savings of approximately $6 billion (roughly €5.5 billion) in the first year alone.
Although the event in Largo, Maryland was formally meant to introduce new policy coming into effect, developments of the past few weeks in the campaign also featuredImage: Elizabeth Frantz/REUTERS

Chants of "thank you, Joe" could be heard as Biden addressed the community college crowd in the city of Largo.

"We finally beat Big Pharma," Biden said at the event.
Industry, Republicans had resisted the changes

"My entire career, I have worked to hold bad actors accountable and lower the cost of prescription drugs," Harris said. "Medicare can use that [collective bargaining] power to go toe-to-toe with Big Pharma and negotiate lower drug prices."

Harris had to cast the Vice President's special 101st vote in the Senate — the last-resort tie-breaking mechanism if a Senate vote is locked at 50-50 — in order for the changes to come into effect, after no Republican Senators supported it.

She stressed this in Largo on Thursday, as Democrats seek to portray themselves as the party trying to keep people's medical bills down.

Republicans alleged that the changes amounted more to "price-fixing," arguing it could ultimately drive prices higher, and supporting industry lobbyists' warnings about it discouraging research and innovation on new medications.

US Democrats move to back Harris in presidential race  02:32

What medication has the change impacted, and how much?

The biggest price drop listed by the government was for Merck and Co's diabetes drug Januvia, decreasing by 79%.

Novo Nordisk's insulin aspart products were set for the second-steepest fall, at 76%.

Eight other listed medications would be bought at rates cut by between 38% and 68%, according to the government.

The true extent of the savings made isn't transparent, though. The US government's price comparisons are against list prices for the drugs, not against whatever price Medicare had previously paid, information the government says it can't divulge.

However, the government says its estimated overall savings to spending do take the previous purchasing prices into account.

Medicare is a federal health insurance program in the US mostly for people over the age of 65, but also for younger people with disabilities. It's estimated to cover or partially cover more than 60 million people.

More than half of US voters in 2020 were aged 50 or older, so nearing the eligibility age for Medicare themselves.

Healthcare is estimated to account for about 8% of Americans' household spending, or around 16% of national GDP — making it the most expensive major developed economy in the world when seeking medical assistance.

People with health insurance in the US still typically have medical bills to pay, with prescriptions among these.

But the idea is that Medicare can at least pass list-price savings, or a share of them, on to end users.











Big Pharma push back on first Medicare drug price cuts

New York (AFP) – Major pharmaceutical companies lashed out following a landmark deal unveiled Thursday to cut the costs of 10 key medicines, with some saying the price-setting process was not transparent.


Issued on: 15/08/2024 

Their statements came after US President Joe Biden and Vice President Kamala Harris announced a deal to lower costs of the first 10 drugs picked for Medicare price talks.

The agreement with drugmakers -- who said they came on board with negotiations as they had no choice -- is set to save seniors in the United States $1.5 billion in out-of-pocket costs.

It is the result of months of negotiations and is anticipated to save Medicare $6 billion in the first year alone, said Biden, referring to the federal health insurance for seniors.

While the announcement is a likely boon for Democratic presidential candidate Harris as she works on her economic messaging ahead of November's election, pharmaceutical companies have long resisted the cuts.

The US government is initially limited to picking 10 drugs for price talks and can expand the program in subsequent years.
'Not objective'

The agreements come on the back of the Inflation Reduction Act (IRA), a major package of energy transition policy and social reforms.

The White House announced a deal to lower costs of 10 key medicines selected for Medicare price negotiations, cutting their list prices by between 38 percent and 79 percent
 © SCOTT OLSON / GETTY IMAGES NORTH AMERICA/AFP/File

This allowed Medicare to start negotiating drug costs for the first time in its nearly 60-year existence.

Novartis, whose heart failure treatment Entresto is among the 10 selected medicines, pushed back against the price-setting process as "not objective or transparent."

"Novartis believes the price-setting provisions in the IRA are unconstitutional and will have long-lasting and devastating consequences," the company added in a statement.

It said it agreed to a "maximum fair price" only to "avoid other untenable options including catastrophic fines or the removal of all our products from both Medicare and Medicaid."

For the 10 selected drugs, discounts from 2023 prices range from 38 percent to 79 percent. The new costs will take effect in 2026.

Besides Entresto, the drugs include Farxiga by AstraZeneca used against diabetes, as well as anticoagulant Eliquis -- used by millions of Medicare beneficiaries.

AstraZeneca said in a separate statement that it accepted the price, as "walking away is not an option."

If a manufacturer refused to accept the price, access for Medicare and Medicaid patients could be compromised, it said.
Patient costs?

Companies also warned that patients could still face higher costs and argued that the deal undervalued their products.

Bristol Myers Squibb (BMS), which is behind Eliquis, cautioned that "insurance plans and their pharmacy benefit managers are ultimately responsible for what patients will pay."

"The IRA does not protect patients from potential increases to their cost sharing or restrictions in access" to Eliquis once the maximum fair price goes into effect in 2026, the company added.

CFRA analyst Sel Hardy, however, noted that BMS management seemed confident it could navigate the impact of the IRA on Eliquis.

A Johnson & Johnson spokesperson called the law arbitrary and lacking in scientific approach.

This "undervalues the benefit our medicines deliver to millions of patients," J&J said.
'Historic milestone'

US residents face the highest prescription drug prices globally, leaving many people to pay partially out of their own pockets despite already exorbitant insurance premiums.

The new deal was reached after Democrats pushed for the government to be able to negotiate prices directly with drug manufacturers for federal health programs.

The White House said the agreement for lower prices is a "historic milestone."

"The vice president and I are not backing down," Biden said in a Thursday statement.

His comments came ahead of a first joint public event with Harris since she replaced him as the Democratic candidate in the upcoming election.

"We will continue the fight to make sure all Americans can pay less for prescription drugs and to give more breathing room for American families," he said.

Rising costs of living are a key issue for the 2024 election.

Last October, drugmakers behind the selected medicines for serious illnesses grudgingly agreed to negotiate on cutting prices.

© 2024 AFP
Bangladeshi students on guard as exiled PM urges show of strength

August 15, 2024
By Agence France-Press
Protesters march to block the house of Sheikh Mujibur Rahman, the first president of independent Bangladesh and father of ousted ex-premier Sheikh Hasina, in Dhaka on Aug. 15, 2024, to mark the anniversary of his assassination.

Dhaka, Bangladesh —

Hundreds of Bangladeshi students wielding bamboo rods patrolled the site of a planned gathering Thursday of ousted premier Sheikh Hasina's supporters, vowing to quash any show of strength.

Hasina, 76, fled by helicopter last week to neighboring India, where she remains, as student-led protests flooded Dhaka's streets in a dramatic end to her iron-fisted 15-year rule.

Thursday is the anniversary of the 1975 assassination of her father, independence hero Sheikh Mujibur Rahman, during a military coup -- a date her government had declared a national holiday.

Previous years saw huge rallies around Bangladesh to mark the occasion, but the students who toppled Hasina were eager to ensure supporters of her Awami League party did not have a chance to regroup.

"Awami League will try to create chaos on Thursday in the name of observing (the) mourning day," prominent student leader Sarjis Alam told reporters the previous day, according to the Daily Star newspaper.

"We will remain on the streets to resist any such attempts."

With no police in sight, hundreds of students on Thursday patrolled the street leading into Hasina's old family home where her father and many of her relatives were gunned down nearly 50 years ago.

The landmark was until recently a museum to her father, but it was torched and vandalized by a mob hours after her fall.

In her first public statement since her abrupt departure, Hasina had this week asked supporters to "pray for the salvation of all souls by offering floral garlands and praying" outside the landmark.

Thousands of civil servants were required to join public demonstrations marking her father's death during her tenure.

Awami League organizers would also set up temporary public address systems around Dhaka to blare Mujib's old speeches and devotional songs praising his leadership.

The caretaker administration now running Bangladesh cancelled observance of the politically charged holiday on Tuesday, requiring bureaucrats to remain in the office.

And on Thursday, the prevailing sound in the city of 20 million people was the horns and motors of its perennially gridlocked traffic.

'Identified and punished'

Hasina's statement came hours after a court in the capital opened a murder case into her, two senior Awami League allies and four police officers related to last month's unrest.

Several other top Awami League politicians have also been detained in unrelated probes, including former law minister Anisul Huq and business adviser Salman Rahman.

Hasina's statement also demanded an investigation into violence during the unrest that forced her out of office, with the culprits to be "identified and punished."

Police weaponry was the cause of the more than 450 people killed during the protests that ousted Hasina, according to police and hospital figures previously gathered by AFP.

Bangladesh mob beats ex-PM Hasina's supporters on site of planned rally

 15/08/2024 - 

Hundreds of activists in Bangladesh, armed with bamboo sticks, iron rods and pipes, on Thursday (August 15), assaulted supporters of the ousted Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina. She fled to neighbouring India by helicopter last week as student-led protests flooded Dhaka's streets in a dramatic end to her iron-fisted rule of 15 years. FRANCE 24's Navodita Kumari tells us more from Bangladesh.

protesters attack supporters of ex-premier Hasina  03:55


Why did student protesters demand Sheikh Hasina’s resignation?

Ali Hassan
August 15th, 2024
LSE

MSc Development Studies alum, Ali Hassan explains how widespread protests against Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina’s authoritarian rule in Bangladesh led to her resignation, the establishment of an interim government, and student efforts to restore order amidst ensuing chaos.

Background

The afternoon of Monday, 5th August, was reportedly a tense one in the Gonobhaban (the Bangladeshi Prime Minister’s official residence in Dhaka). As Sheikh Hasina and her advisers were determining their next move, a crowd containing thousands of people was defying a countrywide curfew and marching towards them. A month ago, many in the crowd had been protesting the imposition of quotas in government jobs and civil service appointments for veterans’ descendants. This time, their sole demand was Sheikh Hasina’s resignation. The Quota Reform Movement had evolved into the One-Point Movement.

What started as a protest to oppose an unpopular policy morphed into a display of anger towards the authoritarianism of Sheikh Hasina and her Awami League (AL) party. Even before students began their anti-quota protests in early July, the signs of dissatisfaction had been visible. In Bangladesh’s latest general election in January, turnout was a paltry 28 percent (though the Election Commission boosted the number to 40 percent due to pressure from senior AL members). Voters boycotted the election because there were no significant opposition parties in the electoral field.

The initial Protests

Against the backdrop of high youth unemployment and rising authoritarianism, university students protested a decision of the High Court Division to reinstate the quota system, which had been abolished following similar protests in 2018. Protests were initially peaceful, with protesters employing roadblocks along major thoroughfares in Dhaka – a common protest practice in Bangladesh.

The protests became more restive following a speech by Sheikh Hasina on 14th July. Students listening to the speech believed she had referred to them as “Razakars”, a derogatory term which refers to Bengalis who collaborated with the Pakistani military during Bangladesh’s Liberation War in 1971. Reports emerged on 15th July that members of the Chhatra League (CL) – AL’s student wing – clashed with the anti-quota protesters, further inflaming tensions.

The Government’s Repressive Response

As the protests grew larger, so too did the government become increasingly violent. It shut down universities on 16th July and sent in the police to forcefully clear campuses of students on 17th July. It also allowed the police and paramilitary forces, such as the controversial Rapid Action Battalion (RAB), to use excessive force on student protesters. Official estimates suggest that at least 200 civilians died in the unrest between 15th and 19th July, though the fatality count is likely significantly higher. The government also arrested several thousands of people, including opposition party members with minimal links to the protests, between 16th and 22nd July.

The government shut down internet and telecommunications services indefinitely on 18th July and instated a countrywide military curfew at midnight on 20th July. Anti-quota gatherings subsided, perhaps owing to the difficulty in organising them amid such severe restrictions or due to the fear of lethal action by the military. The Supreme Court ruled on 21st July that quotas for veterans relatives, initially set at 30 percent, be reduced to 5 percent, a decision by which the government promised to abide.

One-Point Demand: Sheikh Hasina’s Resignation

The Supreme Court’s decision did not quell the anger of the student protesters. They were now organising under the banner of “Anti-Discrimination Students Movement (ADSM)” and sought justice for their allies whom the security forces had killed or arrested. After the government lifted restrictions on internet and telecommunications services, and eased the curfew, protests resumed in earnest, with ADSM announcing on 3rd August that its sole demand was Sheikh Hasina’s resignation.

While the government put in place another curfew on 4th August, protesters announced their plan to march to Gonobhaban on 5th August. Sheikh Hasina was reportedly hopeful that further violence from the security forces would disperse the protesters, but the army and police chiefs were not willing to comply with her request, arguing that the crowd was too powerful. Though she showed much resistance to the move, she eventually agreed to flee Gonobhaban shortly before the crowd’s arrival, secretly making her way to longtime ally India, which has agreed to give her temporary asylum. She officially resigned shortly afterwards.

Unfortunately, after news of Hasina’s resignation spread, the police went on strike, fearing for their own safety, and mobs took advantage of the lawlessness by rioting. Credible reports emerged that rioters had committed acts of arson against AL members, police personnel and the minority Hindu community. Students, realising that their movement was at risk, banded together to help restore some semblance of state functioning. Several videos emerged of students managing the flow of traffic at intersections. They, as well as Muslim religious leaders, reportedly stood watch outside several Hindu temples to deter further communal violence. Since 6th August, few incidents of violence have been reported.

Post-Hasina Bangladesh

Bangladesh now has an interim government, led by well-known economist Dr Muhammad Yunus at the behest of students. The interim cabinet consists largely of civil society members, including two student protest leaders. While much is uncertain, such as when a fresh election will take place, the early signs are promising. The interim government appears to be inclusive and collaborative – two qualities sorely missing in the AL administration led in a top-down fashion by Sheikh Hasina. Bangladeshis, including the powerful military and opposition parties, appear to have accepted the interim cabinet, reducing the fear of coups and unexpected transitions.

It is hard not to see Sheikh Hasina’s downfall as an outcome entirely of her own making. When students expressed their grievances with the government’s quota policy, she berated them, and allowed CL members and security personnel to use excessive force on them. When the protesters understandably became furious, she doubled down on repressive tactics. It is a credit to the protesters that they remained steadfast in the face of live ammunition, beatings, arrests and an internet shutdown. Even more impressive is their effort to ensure that their movement did not get hijacked amid the lawlessness following Hasina’s resignation. Their involvement in the interim cabinet is a positive development for Bangladesh.

The views expressed in this post are those of the author and in no way reflect those of the International Development LSE blog or the London School of Economics and Political Science.

Featured image: Students launched the “Bangla Blockade” following a one-point demand for scrapping all illogical and discriminatory quotas in public service through enactment of a law and keeping a minimum quota for marginalised citizens in line with the constitution. Rayhan9d via Wikimedia Commons. This image is licensed under the Creative Commons Attribution-Share Alike 4.0 International license.


About the author

Ali Hassan is a Senior Intelligence Analyst (South Asia) at Healix. He was part of the 2022 Development Studies cohort, during which time he focused on conflict resolution.

Bangladesh: Envoys from West, Japan cite security concerns, highlights attacks on minorities


'It was an informal meeting held at the Canadian high commission... Representatives of most of the European Union countries, the US, Australia and Japan were present and they took stock of the present situation in Bangladesh,' a source said

Devadeep Purohit Calcutta Published 15.08.24,

Salman F Rahman (centre), former MP and adviser to former Bangladesh Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina, on his way to the Dhaka Metropolitan Magistrate Court after being arrested by the police on Wednesday.

Diplomats from several western countries and Japan met informally in Dhaka on Tuesday and expressed concerns about the attacks on minorities and the apparent lawlessness in Bangladesh since the fall of the Sheikh Hasina regime on August 5.

“It was an informal meeting held at the Canadian high commission... Representatives of most of the European Union countries, the US, Australia and Japan were present and they took stock of the present situation in Bangladesh,” a source said.

Some of the primary concerns of the diplomats representing various countries revolved around their safety and security in view of the apparent lawlessness in the country. Similar issues cropped up when Touhid Hossain, foreign affairs adviser to Muhammad Yunus, met the foreign envoys earlier this week and conveyed the government’s resolve to ensure return of normalcy at the earliest.

The reports on attack on minorities in Bangladesh, which triggered unprecedented street protests by the Hindus, Christians and Buddhists, was discussed and the diplomats expressed their hope that the interim government would take the necessary steps to prevent such incidents.

Though the diplomats were broadly in agreement on their assessment of ground realities, the views of the US and some of the EU countries were “slightly different” when they discussed the manner in which the regime change took place in Bangladesh, said the source.

“Some EU diplomats wondered whether the regime change was constitutionally acceptable,” said the source, adding that this concern was the primary reason behind most countries “wishing” Yunus instead of “welcoming” him.

According to the source, at one point during the meeting, the US representative was urged to respond to a purported comment from Hasina that her ouster from office was the result of her refusal to offer strategically important St Martin’s island to the US. The US representative apparently laughed off and swatted away the question. The US authorities have already clarified that it respects the sovereignty of Bangladesh and has no intention of acquiring the island or intervening in the country’s internal political matters.

Though the meeting ended with the hope that the government would deliver on its promises, there is little doubt that Bangladesh under Yunus would remain under the scanner for quite some time.

Over 80 per cent of Bangladesh’s readymade garment exports, a major source of foreign exchange for the country, are directed towards the western countries, which lay special emphasis on factors like state of democracy and treatment of vulnerable sections, like the minorities. Similarly, Japan, which is a major trading partner and an important source of foreign direct investment for Bangladesh, attaches importance on factors beyond economic interests.

As Yunus’s main challenge is to revive the economy — in the backdrop of dwindling foreign exchange reserves, rising unemployment and runaway inflation — there is little doubt that the interim government would have to live up to the expectations of the western Bloc and countries like Japan.

The fact that the relationship with India, the biggest exporter of essential items to Bangladesh, will also be important became clear on a day the Indian ambassador, Pranay Verma, called on Hossain. The Bangladeshi foreign ministry said that Hossain told the Indian envoy that the government is committed to ensure a transition to an inclusive and pluralistic democracy.

Some of the thornier issues — like killings on the border and the Teesta water sharing agreement — came up during the meeting at which Hossain flagged concerns in Bangladesh about the “highly exaggerated media campaign about happenings in Bangladesh” and recent statements from Hasina in India.

Amid claims from the Yunus regime that the reports on attacks on minorities and their properties were “exaggerated” — a stand toed by Bangladesh’s mainstream media, which hardly reported the alleged assaults on Hindus, Christians and Buddhists — the ancestral home of filmmaker Ritwik Kumar Ghatak in Rajshahi was demolished on Wednesday.


International Support for Bangladesh Depends on a Stable Government

A mass uprising led to the collapse of the Hasina regime. For Japan to provide effective aid, Bangladesh must achieve stability for constructive engagement.



JAPAN FORWARD
August 15, 2024
By Duncan Bartlett, Diplomatic Correspondent
People in Dhaka celebrate the resignation of Prime Minister Hasina on August 5 in the capital of Bangladesh. (©AP)

The interim leader of Bangladesh, Dr Muhammad Yunus, says his first priority is to make his people feel safe again.

He is acutely aware of the urgent need to restore security in the South Asian nation, following a revolution in which hundreds of lives have been lost.

Along with the bloodshed, there have been looting and arson attacks. The police went on strike. Vigilante gangs are patrolling the streets, conducting unofficial "arrests."

This has created an atmosphere of fear. Recent events have crippled international trade. But my contacts in Dhaka assure me that violence has subsided and the the worst seems to be over.

I am pleased that the fires are petering out. But I wonder how Bangladesh can seek to regain the trust of countries that it regards as partners, including Japan.

Bangladesh has made impressive socio-economic progress in recent years. It has not achieved this alone: the help of other nations has been essential. Since Bangladesh's independence in 1972, Japan has been its number one bilateral development partner.

But in my view, no foreign government or business can be expected to provide financial help to a country that is in a state of political chaos or is in the throes of extremism.

Meeting Muhammad Yunus


I've been to Bangladesh a number of times. On one occasion, I interviewed Dr Muhammad Yunus. That was long before he entered politics.

At that time, he was a university professor and banker with a passion for the poor. I was impressed by his pioneering work in providing micro-credit to small businesses, especially enterprises run by women.
Interim Prime Minister Yunus visits a court in Dhaka, Bangladesh in January 2024. (©AP via Kyodo)

Since then, Dr Yunas has gone on to win the Nobel Prize for economics. His work has been lauded internationally. He strikes me as a wise and selfless person. I expect him to be a good influence on his country and will do his best to foster good relations with other nations.

However, it would be wrong to overstate his influence. To call Dr Yunas an "interim leader" is somewhat misleading. He has accepted the position of advisor, yet at this stage, it is not really clear what kind of government he will advise. Dr Yunus himself has admitted he has inherited a "complete mess."

Politicians loyal to the ousted prime minister, Sheik Hasina have been hounded from office. That has created a power vacuum. The Bangladesh National Party (BNP) led by former PM Khaleda Zia, who has now been released from house arrest, is a formidable political force.

In the past, the BNP has governed in coalition with Jamaat-e-Islami. It is an Islamic organization whose members have been known to espouse anti-western views.

This will worry Japan, which has been the target of extremists in Bangladesh, with terrible consequences.

Bakery Massacre


Islamists belonging to a group called Jamaat-ul-Mujahideen Bangladesh (JMB) murdered seven Japanese people in Dhaka in 2016.

Nine Italians, an American and an Indian were also killed in the attack on the Holey Artisan cafe, which was popular with foreigners.

The Japanese victims — five men and two women — were associated with JICA, the government agency that had been tasked with trying to help Bangladesh.

Seven terrorists behind the attack were later tried and put to death.

It took a long time for foreigners to feel safe in Bangladesh following that horrific incident. It still serves as a reminder that foreigners should not take risks there until law and order are reestablished.

That may take time. There is also a possibility that the military could cling to power in a de facto coup d'etat, or even that Islamist factions could seize the government.

Student Revolt


Military generals were not the instigators of this summer's revolution, nor were the opposition politicians from the BNP.

It was students who were at the vanguard of the protests. Their primary gripe was that an authoritarian leader had rigged the jobs market in favor of her cronies.

The students wanted a fairer system. They probably didn't realize that their campaign would gain momentum nationwide and end up with the Prime Minister fleeing the country in a helicopter, while her palace was looted.

So should the students lead the country? Even if that seems like a just outcome and a manifestation of people power, the students do not have a political party to represent them. Dr Yunas has mooted the idea that they could create one. That will not be easy.

Bangladesh is a young country. Democracy has not grown deep roots. It is now entering a period of major uncertainty.

I recognize that Japan has provided support for many valuable projects over the years. Japan is a popular country in Bangladesh and avoids meddling in politics.

But for the time being, the Ministry of Foreign Affairs in Tokyo and agencies such as JICA need to be cautious. My hope is that we will eventually see suitable conditions for constructive engagement. I wish Dr Yunas well as he takes on the greatest struggle of his career.

RELATED:


Protests in Bangladesh: Implications for India and Japan


Author: Duncan Bartlett, Diplomatic Correspondent

Mr Bartlett is the Diplomatic Correspondent for JAPAN Forward and a Research Associate at the SOAS China Institute. Read his other articles and essays.

India ‘over-invested in Hasina and under-invested in Bangladesh’ – and is now panicking

Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi and Bangladesh’s Sheikh Hasina long ignored the democratic backsliding in each other’s countries to forge close ties. With Hasina ousted from power, India’s warnings over the safety of Bangladesh’s Hindu minority smacks of hypocrisy.


File photo of Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi and Bangladesh's
 Sheikh Hasina taken in New Delhi, India on June 22, 2024. 
© Manish Swarup, AP
AFP
Issued on: 15/08/2024 -


LONG READ

When Agontuk*, a 21-year-old architecture student in Dhaka, first saw the social media posts of attacks against Bangladesh’s Hindu minority community, his immediate response was to check on a building in his neighbourhood of the Bangladeshi capital that has mostly Hindu residents.

Agontuk had joined the student movement that drove out Sheikh Hasina, Bangladesh’s longest-serving prime minister. But following a brutal crackdown that killed more than 300 people, the young student avoided street protests. Instead he joined a team of student volunteers using their tech skills to dodge the online surveillance and overcome internet blackouts to get international media attention for their cause.

Targeting Bangladeshi Hindus was never the message nor the intent of the student movement, noted Agontuk. And the allegations of “pogroms” – some even claimed a “genocide” – against the minority community were alarming.

“I was surprised because the people of our country, we live in harmony. We don't want any chaos or anarchy between us. As soon as we heard the reports, we tried to figure out if they were authentic or not,” said the architecture student in a phone interview from the Bangladeshi capital. 

Hours after Hasina’s ouster on August 5, when Agontuk checked in on the Hindu residential building in Dhaka’s Nobinbag neighbourhood, everything was mercifully quiet. “There had not been a single attack in the area,” he recounted. “Over the next few days, I was monitoring that place, I spoke to residents and to shopkeepers in the area, everything was okay.”

As reports of attacks on Hindu temples and businesses circulated, largely on social media sites and on mainstream Indian TV channels, Agontuk kept in touch with his friends and contacts across the city and country. “I get to communicate with them every day. They have also said that they are trying to monitor the temples in their areas and they have told me there have been no violations,” he said.

Shortly after Hasina fled to India, celebrations descended into mob violence as rioters targeted members of her Awami League party as well as symbols of her family’s political legacy, including statues and a museum dedicated Hasina’s father, Sheikh Mujibur Rehman. 

Hindus, Muslim-majority Bangladesh’s largest religious minority, comprise around 8% of the country’s nearly 170 million population. They have traditionally supported the Awami League, putting them in the crosshairs of rioters. 

In the week after Hasina’s ouster, there have been at least 200 attacks against Hindus and other religious minorities across the country, according to the Bangladesh Hindu Buddhist Christian Unity Council, a minority rights group.

But the exact figures and motivations for the deadly violence have been hard to ascertain. The police, loathed by the students for spearheading the crackdown on protesters, had also sustained casualties in their ranks and went on a weeklong strike after Hasina fled. 

In the chaotic days that followed, rumours and online misinformation turbocharged minority fears. Social media added to the confusion, especially after fact-checkers found several posts circulating old images and unsubstantiated claims, with much of the fake news traced to bots and trolls from neighbouring India.

Religion – an old fault line on the Indian subcontinent and the cause of the bloody dissection of colonial British India into modern South Asian nation states – had reared its head again.

But between the very real fears of Bangladeshi Hindus and the flood of misinformation emanating from Hindu-majority Indialies a diplomatic hustle for power, influence, resources and access. 

The fall of Hasina has put the spotlight on a ruthless geopolitical game in South Asia that the international community was content to overlook, but must now address since the Bangladeshi uprising, dubbed the “Gen Z revolution”, has shuffled the diplomatic deck. 

‘Monsoon revolution’ for all 

The gravity of the social unrest was immediately grasped by Muhammad Yunus, a Nobel Laureate who accepted the post of chief adviser in a transitional government until elections are held. 

Shortly after landing in Dhaka from Paris, where he was attending the Olympic Games, Yunus told reporters that the restoration of order was his top priority.

On Monday, Yunus met with Hindu community members at the Dhakeshwari National Temple, the country’s largest Hindu shrine, where he called for patience and assistance in his government’s bid to ensure equal rights and protections for all Bangladeshi citizens. 

Many Bangladeshi students and civil society members have been doing their bit to maintain order and protect minority rights. Social media sites, such as Instagram, are crammed with photographs of students protecting temples across Bangladesh. 

Muslim volunteers guard the Dhakeshwari temple in Dhaka, Bangladesh, August11, 2024.
Muslim v

Shafqat Munir, senior fellow at the Dhaka-based Bangladesh Institute of Peace and Security Studies, believes inclusivity and plurality are important principles as Bangladesh navigates a post-Hasina era. 

“First of all, we have had some unfortunate attacks on minority groups and people, but I must flag that there is an awful lot of disinformation out there,” he noted. “I want to say that for Bangladesh, for the people of Bangladesh, even one incident is too many. This revolution, which I term the Monsoon Revolution, is a revolution for all Bangladeshis, irrespective of whatever faiths they profess. So it is absolutely critical for us to ensure that no particular group or no particular individual is targeted for his or her faith. That's very important.”

Hasina vs. a ‘destabilised, Islamist Bangladesh’

But across Bangladesh’s 4,000-kilometre border with India, many news anchors, editors and commentators are not convinced by the reassurances. 

Mainstream Indian news outlets, which often serve as mouthpieces for Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s Hindu nationalist government, have been focused on a Bangladeshi Islamist party. “What is Jamaat-e-Islami? The Pakistan-backed political party that brought down Sheikh Hasina’s govt,” read one headline. “Jamaat may take control in Bangladesh,” read another, quoting a senior member of Modi’s Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP).

The Jamaat--Islami has never won a parliamentary majority in Bangladesh’s 53-year history, but it has periodically allied with the opposition Bangladesh Nationalist Party (BNP). Jamaat, as the party is widely known, was banned on August 1, when Hasina blamed the two opposition parties for the deaths during the anti-quota protests.

The BNP and Jamaat deny responsibility for the lethal violence in the lead-up to Hasina’s ouster. On Tuesday, a Bangladeshi court opened a murder investigation into Hasina and six figures in her administration over the killing of a man during the civil unrest.

Bangladeshi student leaders have repeatedly told reporters that they were seeking fundamental change. Many voiced distrust of the country’s mainstream political parties, including the Awami League, BNP and Jamaat. 

Their decision to ask Yunus, a respected economist, to lead an interim administration reflected their desire for a break from a political past dominated either by the Awami League or the BNP.

But their message has failed to reassure Indian commentators. “I think that many Indians have bought into the narrative that Hasina and the Awami League had long put out, that Hasina was really the only thing standing between a secular, moderate Bangladesh and a Bangladesh destabilised by Islamist forces,” explained Michael Kugelman, director of the South Asia Institute at the Washington DC-based Wilson Center.

All eggs in the Hasina basket

Hasina’s domestic fall from grace was years in the making. While protests against a controversial government quota system provided the catalyst for her exit, public discontent had increased after Bangladesh’s “Iron Lady” won her fourth consecutive term in the January 7 elections.

The US State Department characterised the parliamentary elections as “not free or fair”. But regional rivals India and China rushed to congratulate the 76-year-old incumbent yet again.

The Indian prime minister’s praise for Hasina’s victory was particularly fulsome. Ignoring the reams of think-tank reports on a “banned and boycotted” election, Modi congratulated the Bangladeshi prime minister – and people.

“I also congratulate the people of Bangladesh for the successful conduct of elections. We are committed to further strengthen our enduring and people-centric partnership with Bangladesh,” Modi said in a post on X.

The rhetoric was far removed from reality. “India over-invested in Hasina and under-invested in Bangladesh,” explained Salil Tripathi, author of the book, The Colonel Who Would Not Repent: The Bangladesh War and Its Unquiet Legacy.

“So New Delhi put all its eggs in one basket, and that, geostrategically, does not seem like a very smart thing to do at all,” said Tripathi.

Managing the China-India diplomatic dance

Hasina, on the other hand, managed to whip up a foreign policy omelette that was palatable enough in regional capitals, according to Kugelman.

“Say what you will about Sheikh Hasina, but I actually think she did a pretty good job balancing Bangladesh's relations with regional powers. She had a special relationship with India, but she also increased economic and defence ties with China in a big way,” said Kugelman.

In March 2023, Hasina inaugurated a $1.21 billion China-built submarine based at Bangladesh’s Cox Bazaar off the Bay of Bengal coast. It was a crown in what the Washington, DC-based Center for Strategic and International Studies calls China’s “submarine diplomacy”.

But managing the China-India diplomatic dance also takes finesse, and after 14 years of nearly absolute power in Bangladesh, Hasina appeared to be losing her footing.  

Her visit to China last month was a washout, according to gleeful Indian media reports. Beijing had failed to extend Hasina the requisite diplomatic niceties and, more importantly, appeared non-committal about a water management project on the Teesta River.

Hasina cut short her China visit and returned home to tell reporters she favoured the Indian bid for the Teesta water project.

‘Selling’ Bangladesh

New Delhi and Dhaka have long enjoyed good relations born out of historic ties. Bangladesh was formerly East Pakistan, becoming a part of Pakistan in 1947, when British India was divided into Hindu-majority India and Muslim-majority Pakistan.

Bangladesh was founded in 1971 after it won a war of independence against Pakistan with the help of an Indian military intervention. 

Since the 1970s, India could rely on tiny, impoverished Bangladesh as New Delhi fixated on Pakistan and China, waging wars and engaging in border skirmishes with her two neighbours.

With linguistic ties linking Bangladesh and the Indian state of West Bengal, India enjoyed a considerable soft power advantage with its eastern neighbour.

But things got complicated after Modi’s Hindu nationalist BJP party came to power in 2014.

In 2019, the Modi government passed controversial citizenship laws that were criticised as anti-Muslim. The BJP’s strident anti-migrant rhetoric sees hardline party members often railing against Muslim “infiltrators” with Indian Home Minister Amit Shah infamously calling Bangladeshi migrants “termites” during an election rally in West Bengal.

When the Indian prime minister arrived in Dhaka in March 2021 to mark the country’s 50th anniversary, 12 people were killed in anti-Modi protests in an embarrassment for the Hasina administration.

Following Hasina’s victory in the January election, an “India Out” campaign calling for the boycott of Indian goods gained traction on social media. Shop owners in Dhaka and other cities told the Voice of America in February that there had been a drop in sales of some Indian products.

Some critics claimed India “covertly” helped Hasina win the election, while others said New Delhi used its influence to tone down US and European criticisms of the Bangladeshi vote. India denied the allegations. 

Despite growing anger in Bangladesh over Modi’s anti-Muslim stance, Hasina maintained a close working relationship with her Indian counterpart. While the BJP’s anti-Muslim, anti-Bangladeshi migrant rhetoric mounted ahead of the 2019 and 2024 Indian elections, Bangladesh’s “Iron Lady” remained silent, maintaining it was an Indian “internal” matter.

With both leaders ignoring each other’s human rights violations and democratic backsliding, Hasina-Modi relations grew steadfast and cozy. 

Security and defence cooperation increased between Dhaka and New Delhi, particularly in India’s insurgency-hit northeastern states bordering Bangladesh. 

Bilateral trade also increased, with Indian corporations striking major deals, such as a coal deal between Hasina’s government and the Adani Group, led by billionaire Indian tycoon Gautam Adani, whose ascent has been closely tied to Modi’s rise.

Just weeks before she was ousted, Hasina was asked to comment on social media posts accusing her of “selling Bangladesh” to New Delhi during her June 21-22 state visit to India. The Bangladeshi prime minister dismissed the allegation. “Sheikh Hasina does not sell this country,” she snapped, using the third person to defend her track record.

Minority rights and wrongs 

South Asia experts routinely note that in India’s relations with its neighbours, a longstanding New Delhi position has been the protection of minorities, whether it’s the Tamils of Sri Lanka or in Bangladesh’s case, Hindus.

But Tripathi notes that the Modi administration’s commitment to a Hindu rashtra, or Hindu nation, by turning its back on secularism has undermined a core Indian foreign policy principle.

“Dispassionate experts talk about the Indian red lines on how the Hindu minority is treated in Bangladesh. They talk about it as a legitimate and longstanding New Delhi position. What I do not understand is how does New Delhi gets away with its treatment of its own minorities, its own Muslims,” said Tripathi.

While Bangladeshi experts are well aware of India’s backsliding on minority rights, their focus these days is on the future of their own country, now in a critical transition state.

Munir notes that for Bangladesh to enjoy stability and economic development, a healthy relationship with its giant neighbour is essential. 

“A great majority of Bangladeshis want a robust, constructive, productive relationship with India. It is our largest neighbour, and geopolitics and geography demands that we have a pragmatic, productive relationship with India. That relationship cannot be held hostage to the vicissitudes of political change,” he maintained.

But for that to happen, New Delhi must turn the page on its Bangladesh policy, Munir added.

“New Delhi needs to fight a perception that exists in Dhaka that it was aligned with an individual and one regime. It is very important for New Delhi to signal to Dhaka right now … it must acknowledge that a revolution has happened. It needs to acknowledge that Sheikh Hasina is now history,” he said. 

Meanwhile, Hasina’s presence in India since her August 5 resignation after weeks of protest poses a challenge to both New Delhi and Bangladesh’s interim authorities.

Analysts say India was not in a position to turn down a Bangladeshi exile request since it would send a message that New Delhi does not stand by its allies.

India and Bangladesh have an extradition agreement, which means that if Dhaka puts in an official extradition request for Hasina, New Delhi must either comply or stand in breach of its international agreements. 

The easiest solution would be to send Hasina to a third country, possibly a Gulf state with good relations with New Delhi, some analysts say.

But many Bangladeshi student protesters are afraid Hasina could return to her home country, a prospect Agontuk finds terrifying.

“I have kept my identity anonymous because there is still a security risk,” explained the architecture student from Dhaka. “Sheikh Hasina might have left the country, but her henchmen, many of her politicians, her party’s student wing – they are still in Bangladesh because many of them couldn't escape the country. So they are still monitoring us,” he said.

Bangladesh has a difficult road ahead. Ten days after Hasina’s ouster, the situation in Dhaka was tense on Thursday, the anniversary of an August 15, 1975, military coup when Hasina’s father, Rahman, was assassinated along with most of his family members. 

Hundreds of student protesters and political activists, armed with bamboo sticks, iron rods and pipes, assaulted Hasina’s supporters in Dhaka and prevented them from reaching Rahman’s former residence.

Revolutions are often followed by blood-letting and counterrevolutions, and at times the desired outcomes, including democratic rights and civil liberties, are not achieved in the long run.

But Agontuk maintains he’s optimistic about Bangladesh’s future. “The main motive of the protest was to ensure a bright and good future for Bangladeshi students,” he said. “We are optimistic. We will be optimistic for whatever is happening in Bangladesh. And we are looking forward for a brighter and brighter future for all of us.”

*Name changed on request to protect identity.