IRAQ-KURDISTAN

10 Years Since ISIS Genocide, Kildani Moves Against Christian Officials in Nineveh

By Nadine Maenza on August 19, 2024

While Christians mark 10 years since the ISIS genocide in Nineveh, US-Sanctioned Rayan Al-Kildani and his Babylon Brigade are taking over, displacing Christian officials, and fostering corruption. Local leaders resisting his influence demand fair representation and protection of their community.


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In the coming weeks, the Iraqi Federal Court is expected to rule on the illegal removal of the Nineveh Provincial Council on July 2 and replacement of 15 mayors and directors. If this action stands, it will remove the last independent Christian mayors outside of the Kurdistan Region and have a devastating impact on the historic Syriac, Assyrian, and Chaldean Christian cities of Bartella, Qaraqosh, Tel Kef, and the Yazidi homeland of Sinjar.

Before the 2003 US-led invasion of Iraq that toppled Saddam Hussein, there were 1.5 million Christians in Iraq. US policy unfortunately increased sectarianism, which, in turn, hurt religious and ethnic minorities. By the time ISIS arrived, only 700,000 Christians remained, and under Islamic State rule Christians were subjected to “forced transfer, persecution, pillage, sexual violence and slavery, and other inhuman acts such as forced conversions and the intentional destruction of cultural heritage.” Now, reports suggest between 150,000 and 250,000 remain.

The Struggle for Qaraqosh

The largest Christian city in Iraq, Qaraqosh (Bakhdida) in the Al-Hamdaniya District, was captured by ISIS on August 6, 2014. Because the community was aware of the horrific crimes in Sinjar and Mosul, most of the 60,000 residents fled to Erbil in the Kurdistan Region of Iraq (KRI). By the time Qaraqosh was liberated on October 19, 2016, with $135 million in damages, churches and homes destroyed, 40% of Christian residents had already emigrated abroad or had decided to stay in the KRI.

On July 18, 2019, the United States sanctioned Rayan Al-Kildani, the leader of the 50th Brigade militia, for human rights abuses, including intimidation, extortion, and harassment of women. With accusations of systemic looting and illegally seizing land, the US said, “The 50th Brigade was reportedly the primary impediment to the return of internally displaced persons to the Nineveh Plains.” Immediately upon the district’s liberation, Iranian-aligned militias began seizing lands, preventing many residents from returning.

The 50th Brigade is now known as the Babylon Brigade or Kataib Babiliyoun (KB). While they are supported by Iran and close to Iran’s Quds Force, they fall under the Government of Iraq’s Popular Mobilization Forces (PMF) or “Hashd al-Shaabi.” While Kildani claims it is a Christian group and calls himself “Rayan the Chaldean,” most members are Shia from Southern Iraq who have relocated to the Nineveh Plains to build Kildani’s political strength. The political arm is known as the Babylon Movement.


Unfortunately, the consequence of ignoring this deadline has cost Iraqis enormously, especially religious minorities.

After the fall of ISIS, Iranian-aligned militias filled the vacuum in the Nineveh Plains, particularly in disputed territories claimed by both the Governments of Iraq and Kurdistan, neither of which adequately invested in its governance or security. In fact, Article 140 of the 2005 Iraqi Constitution lays out a process to resolve the disputed territories with a deadline of 2007. Unfortunately, the consequence of ignoring this deadline has cost Iraqis enormously, especially religious minorities.

Despite accusations of bribing and threatening voters, Rayan and his Iran-backed Babylon Movement won four of the five seats reserved for Christians in the 2021 Iraqi parliamentary election, exploiting loopholes in election laws. Kildani relied on support from Iranian-backed Shia groups to elect his candidates instead of giving Christians their promised voice in the parliament. During provincial elections in 2023, Kildani repeated his success by winning four seats reserved for Christians in the provincial elections in Basra, Baghdad, Kirkuk, and Nineveh. While initially Kildani lost the Basra seat to a church-backed candidate, he brought a legal case against him with accusations of being in the Baath party, leading to his elimination. Kildani’s candidate was his replacement.

In July 2023, it was reported that Kildani pressured the President of Iraq, Abdul Latif Rashid, to revoke a decree recognizing Cardinal Louis Sako as Patriarch of the Chaldean Catholic Church, the largest Christian denomination in Iraq (67%) and in full communion with the Roman Catholic Church. This led to Cardinal Sako withdrawing his headquarters from Baghdad and fleeing to Erbil. Kildani even faked a meeting with the Pope to try and gain legitimacy. While I was with Cardinal Sako days after he arrived in Erbil, he shared his fear for the future of the church in Iraq under such threats. Fortunately, in April 2024, Prime Minister Mohammed Shia al-Sudani reinstated the decree, with Cardinal Sako immediately returning the church headquarters to Baghdad.
Resistance to Kildani

The Christian residents and leaders of Qaraqosh have refused to allow Kildani to take political control, although they endure regular harassment going through the militia checkpoints, especially women. On March 11, 2023, Kildani’s brother, Osama, who now commands the Babylon Brigade militia while Rayan focuses on the political movement, attempted to take over the base of the Christian Nineveh Plains Protection Units (NPU) in Qaraqosh, a force of 500 men organized for their protection.

Archbishop Younan Hanno and all the top Christian leaders, along with residents, marched towards the Babylon Brigade convoy to force the militia out of town. On August 5, the Council of Qaraqosh Archbishops, along with five Syriac, Assyrian, Chaldean political parties, held another protest against ongoing land theft, corrupt security forces, unfair elections for Christians, frustration with the demographic change, and anger at efforts to remove their political leadership and replace them with Kildani loyalists.

On September 26, a devastating fire broke out at a wedding reception in Qaraqosh, quickly igniting the entire building, killing 134 people, and injuring over 250, devastating the close-knit Syriac Catholic community. Just weeks after the fire, I was able to visit the reception hall and spend time sitting with families who were dealing with unimaginable grief. It seemed every family I met had lost at least one immediate family member, often a teenager, while also losing sisters, brothers, cousins, and parents.

Syriac Catholic Priest Father Adris Hanna, who spent time ministering to this community, wrote that “Exhaustion has taken its toll on the people, and thoughts of migration now loom large. The residents of Qaraqosh have faced persecution and expulsion, driven from their homeland due to their ethnicity and faith.” Many returned to rebuild after 2014, but even they are contemplating emigration due to constant threats.

With rumors that the wedding hall owner is affiliated with Kildani and angry with Kildani’s efforts to remove Christian officials, residents refused to let Kildani and his Babylon-affiliated Member of Parliament Duraid Jamil Eshoo to attend a mourning ceremony. Kildani threatened to attack a church if he was not allowed entry, and Duraid said, “If 100 died now, we’ll make them 200 next time, and we’ll break the bishop’s crosier on his head,” referring to Archbishop Hanno’s traditional staff. All of these comments were caught on video and shared with authorities.
The power grab

On July 2, 2024, Kildani finally convinced (or coerced) a majority of the Nineveh Provincial Council to make the drastic decision to remove 15 government officials in Qaraqosh, Bartella, and Tel Kef, and the strategically important Yazidi homeland of Sinjar.

Kildani’s pro-Iranian Babylon Movement controls 16 of the 29 members of the Nineveh Provincial Council, a huge surprise since this is a majority Arab area. He is part of the Nineveh Future Alliance, along with the Coordination Framework, the Patriotic Union of Kurdistan, and those holding minority quota seats.

The Opposition Alliance comprises the United Nineveh Alliance (9 seats) and the Kurdistan Democratic Party (4 seats). The opposition suspended its membership in the council, calling for the Council President to be removed, and filed a complaint with the federal court. The council’s decision brought stunning unity from five Christian political parties, saying the actions “exceeded the law and constitutional powers” and would have “serious negative consequences in society.” All changes are on hold until the court decides the case.

Kildani was also a leader in the alliance that took over the Kirkuk Provincial Council, voting on August 10 to replace the Governor and council speaker positions, leading to widespread news coverage and protests.

It’s important to note that Kildani is not a rogue player, but working closely with other Iranian-backed militia and political leaders such as former Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki, PMF leader Falih al-Fayyad, and Qais al-Khazali, who in June warned that if the US continues its support of Israel “then America should know that it will put all its interests in the region, particularly in Iraq, at risk and make them a target.”


In fact, it is difficult to find any negative articles about Kildani in local news any longer, showing his enormous power and the fear he instills.

Kildani immediately took credit for the council’s actions on Alawla TV saying, “but today we have restored rights to the people of Nineveh…” While there are dozens of articles about this vote, no local news covered Kildani’s involvement. In fact, it is difficult to find any negative articles about Kildani in local news any longer, showing his enormous power and the fear he instills.
Protecting Iraq’s minorities

The Government of Iraq should challenge the Nineveh Provincial Council’s decision to replace officials with Kildani loyalists, giving him and Iranian-backed militias control of most of the Nineveh Plains. Harassment of religious and ethnic communities at checkpoints by Kildani’s Babylon Brigade or others should not be allowed or tolerated. Those that violate the law should be prosecuted.


Federal authorities must investigate and charge those like Kildani who engage in vote-buying and other election fraud.

Election rules must be changed to protect the political representation of Christians, Yazidis, and other religious and ethnic minorities in parliament so only minority community members can vote for their own representation. Federal authorities must investigate and charge those like Kildani who engage in vote-buying and other election fraud.

The US and the international community still have the political might to press for positive changes to protect these fragile religious minority communities, but they must act now.

The views represented in this piece are those of the author and do not express the official position of the Wilson Center.

About the Author


Nadine Maenza
Global Fellow;
President, International Religious Freedom Secretariat

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The Wilson Center’s Middle East Program serves as a crucial resource for the policymaking community and beyond, providing analyses and research that helps inform US foreign policymaking, stimulates public debate, and expands knowledge about issues in the wider Middle East and North Africa (MENA) region. Read more

Why August 19, 2024's Super Blue Moon Is So Rare And When To See The Next One

August 2024's full moon is a special event, combining a Supermoon, a Blue Moon, and the Sturgeon Moon.
Outlook International Desk
Updated on: 19 August 2024 


Representative image Photo: Pinterest

Tonight’s full moon is not just a regular celestial event—it’s a rare combination of three fascinating phenomena: the Supermoon, the Blue Moon, and the Sturgeon Moon. Let’s break down what makes this August 19th full moon so special.


What Is A Supermoon?

A Supermoon happens when the moon is at its closest point to Earth, known as perigee, during its full moon phase. This means it looks bigger and brighter than usual. The term "Supermoon" was introduced by astrologer Richard Nolle in 1979. NASA explains that because the moon’s orbit around Earth is not a perfect circle, its distance from Earth varies. Supermoons occur three to four times a year, but they only make up about 25% of all full moons.


What About The Blue Moon?

The term "Blue Moon" has two meanings: monthly and seasonal. August's full moon is a seasonal Blue Moon, which is rare. Typically, there are three full moons in each astronomical season (from solstice to equinox or vice versa). When there are four, the third one is called a Blue Moon. The next seasonal Blue Moon won’t appear until May 2027.


Monthly Blue Moons, which happen roughly every 2-3 years, refer to the second full moon in a single calendar month. While Blue Moons are uncommon, a Supermoon that is also a Blue Moon is even rarer, with occurrences ranging from every 10 to 20 years. The next pairing of a Supermoon and Blue Moon will occur in January and March 2037.


The Sturgeon Moon

The name "Sturgeon Moon" comes from Native American tribes who used lunar names to track seasonal changes. August’s full moon was named after the large sturgeon fish found in the Great Lakes and Lake Champlain, which were most easily caught during this time of year. Other names for August’s full moon include the Black Cherries Moon, Corn Moon, and Mountain Shadows Moon. Unfortunately, sturgeon populations have declined due to overfishing and habitat loss.

Will The Moon Actually Appear Blue?

Despite the name, the moon won’t turn blue tonight. When you see images of a blue moon, the blue color is usually added through filters or photo editing. Real blue moons are incredibly rare and usually result from specific atmospheric conditions, such as volcanic ash. The term "Blue Moon" has been in use since at least 1528, but naturally occurring blue moons are few and far between.

What’s Happening In The Night Sky?

If you’re keen on stargazing this month, here are some highlights:



August 19: Watch the full moon.


August 20: The moon will move past Saturn, rising in the east and traveling west throughout the night.


August 27: A crescent moon will join Mars and Jupiter before sunrise for a spectacular trio in the eastern sky.


All Month: The Lagoon Nebula is visible with binoculars or a telescope in the constellation Sagittarius, near "The Teapot" star pattern.


Enjoy tonight's full moon—whether you’re a seasoned stargazer or just curious about the cosmos, this August full moon is a celestial event not to be missed!

Antarctica’s Melting Ice Is Lifting the Land. Could It Slow Rising Seas?

As Antarctica’s ice melts, the land beneath it is rising due to the reduced weight on the bedrock. This unexpected uplift could potentially help reduce the impact of rising sea levels.

Outlook International Desk
Updated on: 19 August 2024 

Representative image

Nature is full of surprises, and Antarctica is adding another intriguing twist to its tale. Recent research reveals that the land beneath the Antarctic Ice Sheet is rising, a phenomenon that could have significant implications for sea level rise. Understanding this process is crucial as we seek to anticipate and mitigate the impacts of climate change.

While the Earth may seem stable, the ground beneath our feet is in constant motion. Land can sink or rise due to various environmental factors. In Antarctica, as ice melts, the bedrock beneath is experiencing a noticeable uplift. This is because the weight of the ice pressing down on the land is reduced, allowing the bedrock to rise slowly.

Terry Wilson, a senior research scientist at the Byrd Polar and Climate Research Center at The Ohio State University, is leading a team investigating this phenomenon. Their focus is on how the rising land could interact with the melting ice and impact global sea levels.

Researchers at McGill University have developed a sophisticated model to explore these interactions. The model offers a glimmer of hope: if we succeed in reducing greenhouse gas emissions and slowing global warming, the uplift of the land could potentially reduce Antarctica’s contribution to sea level rise by up to 40%.

The rising land in Antarctica may offer some relief from rising sea levels. As the ice melts, the bedrock’s uplift could offset some of the expected increases in sea levels. This could significantly reduce the amount of sea level rise caused by melting ice if we manage to cut emissions.

Wilson explains, “Our measurements show that the solid earth beneath the Antarctic ice sheet is changing shape much faster than we previously thought. The uplift of the land is occurring over decades, not thousands of years.”

Risks Of Inaction

However, the benefits of land uplift are contingent on our actions to address climate change. If greenhouse gas emissions continue to rise unchecked, the ice will melt faster than the land can rise. This scenario would lead to an acceleration of sea level rise, potentially worsening predictions for coastal flooding and impacting millions of people living in low-lying areas.

Wilson warns, “If emissions are not reduced in time, the melting ice will outpace the land’s uplift, leading to greater sea level rise. This could significantly worsen predictions for sea level rise along populated coastlines.”

The study, which uses data from the Antarctic Network (ANET) of the Polar Earth Observing Network (POLENET) project, involves simulations to predict potential changes in Antarctica’s ice sheet and their effects on global sea levels until the year 2500. This research underscores the importance of taking immediate action to limit emissions and mitigate climate change impacts.

Wilson’s research emphasizes that individual and collective actions can influence the future health of our planet. With nearly 700 million people living in coastal regions, understanding and addressing sea level rise is crucial for protecting vulnerable communities.

Wilson concludes, “There’s a lot of uncertainty in every model and prediction, but improving our ability to make accurate predictions is essential. It’s the only way we can effectively address the changes our world is undergoing.”

This study highlights the urgent need for action on climate change. Whether through personal choices, supporting environmental policies, or advocating for systemic changes, every effort contributes to preserving our planet. As we face the challenges of a changing climate, every action, no matter how small, can make a difference in shaping a sustainable future.

Pakistan: Youtuber Aun Ali Khosa abducted by intelligence agencies released, says lawyer

Khosa was among the three other social media activists of jailed former prime minister Imran Khan's Pakistan Tehreek-i-Insaf (PTI) party who had recently been picked up allegedly by intelligence agencies

PTI Lahore Published 19.08.24, 06:03 PM


Aun Ali KhosaInstagram/ aunalikhosa


Pakistani YouTuber and comedian Aun Ali Khosa, who was allegedly abducted by intelligence agencies last week for singing a song critical of the Shehbaz Sharif government and its backers, has returned home in Punjab province, his lawyer said on Monday.

Khosa was among the three other social media activists of jailed former prime minister Imran Khan's Pakistan Tehreek-i-Insaf (PTI) party who had recently been picked up allegedly by intelligence agencies.

The other two people were Naeem Ahmad Yasin and Arsalan Akbar. Their families have declared them "missing persons".

The Sharif-led government and the establishment were facing scathing criticism on social media for "abducting" Aun Khosa for singing a parody song on soaring electricity bills.

Days before his abduction, Khosa had sung a song, "Bill Bill Pakistan", a parody of the famous Pakistani song "Dil Dil Pakistan" and released a video on social media criticising the high prices of electricity and extra taxes added to it.

Khosa also took on the worthlessness of the Pakistani passport and the cash-strapped country's loans. The comedian has a following of 137,000 on YouTube.

On Monday, Khosa's lawyer, Advocate Khadija Siddiqi, said on X: “Aun Ali Khosa has been released! He has reached home! Criticising the recurring cases of abductions, she said, “Over the last two months, we have fought all missing persons cases, including Aun's, at the Lahore High Court.” She said that the kidnappers have the same modus operandi; they come in the dark of the night at 2 or 3 am, break down the door, and there are about a dozen men with masks on their faces, carrying weapons.

They take away mobile phones and laptops, and if there’s a CCTV installed, they remove it. They harass the victim and take him away.

"Then, when the high court’s ruling comes, they return the victim to his house in the dark of the night," Siddiqui said, adding that the practice of abduction of citizens should come to an end.

"If someone has violated the law, bring them to court and prosecute them there," she said.

Earlier, the Lahore High Court (LHC) directed the Punjab police chief to recover Khosa by August 20 and to recover missing PTI activist Arsalan Akbar by August 28.

The PTI has expressed concern over the recent ‘forced disappearances’ of its political workers.

Two brothers of PTI former social media head Azhar Mashwani – Professors Mazhar-ul-Hassan and Zahoor-ul-Hassan – as well as party founder Khan's close aide Shahbaz Gill’s brother Ghulam Shabbir have been missing since June last.

Amnesty International has also demanded the Pakistan government to immediately disclose the whereabouts of missing persons and ensure an effective, independent, and impartial investigation into these disappearances."

The Lingering Economic Consequences of Sri Lanka’s Civil War


A lack of justice following Sri Lanka’s Civil War has compounded the economic crisis in the North-East.

By Devana Senanayake
August 19, 2024
THE DIPLOMAT  

Sri Lankan Tamil civil war survivors perform rituals in memory of their deceased family members on a small strip of land where civilians were trapped during the last stages of the war in Mullivaikkal, Sri Lanka, May 17, 2024.Credit: AP Photo/Eranga Jayawardena
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This year marks 15 years since the end of the Civil War in Sri Lanka. The armed forces carried out an avalanche of atrocities during the conflict: they bombed No Fire Zones, shelled hospitals, fired on Liberation Tigers of Tamil Eelam (LTTE) combatants that surrendered, carried out enforced disappearances, and denied humanitarian aid such as food and medicine to civilians in camps. An International Crisis Group report in 2010 noted that the “the Sri Lankan option” set a precedent for the elimination of dissent. In fact, close parallels can be seen in Gaza today.

Fifteen years later, the Tamil people have not received a solution to the National Question, be it a political solution – such as the complete devolution of authority from a centralized state to the provincial councils, a solid accountability mechanism, or personalized reparations – or an economic solution.

Research has revealed a number of obstacles to economic development in the North-East: militarization, unsustainable infrastructure projects, a lack of viable livelihoods in the area, the lack of a macro-economic vision that prioritizes local people’s autonomy over land, and the absence of ports.

The diminished civic space and lack of economic development are closely connected. This can be seen in the state-sponsored colonization that has restricted people’s access to their land and resources, and militarized capitalism, that has acutely reinforced the military’s ability to act as a capitalist hand.

State-sponsored Colonization

“It is only the armed conflict that is over. The civil conflict is very much alive,” said Shanakiyan Rasamanickam, an MP and member of Illankai Tamil Arasu Kachchi (ITAK). “The oppression still exists and the land issues are the topmost issue.”

In Sri Lanka, the majority of land is under the state’s control. Land is distributed under various ordinances to farmers as annual or extended permits. Grants exist but they have specific stipulations. In the North-East, most citizens had access to private lands. Faced by violence from the armed forces, the Indian Peace Keeping Forces, and other paramilitary troops, many people had to leave their lands and in the process lost their deeds. At the end of the Civil War, the army released the majority of land but the state used various departments to reoccupy them.

The state has three primary motivations for this. First, the extensively centralized state is paranoid that the complete devolution of authority to the provincial councils could loosen their control over the land. Second, colonization shapes the ethnic makeup of an area. With land occupation, the number of Sinhala voters increases and there is a greater likelihood of a Sinhala representative elected into Parliament. Finally, when the state occupies land, they could use it to complete their political project, be it Sinhalization or neoliberalization.

“Land is power. The state needs to control land to implement its political project,” said Sandun Thudugala, a member of People’s Alliance for Right to Land. This can be seen in former President Gotabaya Rajapaksa’s allocation of land to the military and current President Ranil Wickremesinghe’s allocation of land for market liberalization (i.e. private investment).

Methods

Under British rule, the state occupied land for tea plantations. These schemes displaced Sinhala peasants and confined them to the periphery of these areas. In the post-independence period, many politicians had to meet the demands of these constituencies and expanded colonization schemes into the Dry Zone. D. S. Senanayake, the first prime minister of Sri Lanka (then known as Ceylon), set up the Gal Oya project for rural development during 1948-1952. The project built a dam in the Gal Oya Basin and used it to cultivate paddy, chilies, and potatoes. The need for labor led to the violent displacement of Tamil and Muslim farmers to make space for Sinhala settlements. The Gal Oya riots in 1956 exploded as a result of these schemes.

Water diversification for Sinhala farmers was the primary aim of the Accelerated Mahaweli Development Program in the 1970s. In the next decades, Sinhala farmers did not have a base in the North-East, so the state continued the project. These development projects led to tensions in rural areas like Batticaloa’s Mayilathamaduva. Tamil cattle farmers were threatened by Sinhala paddy farmers and many times their livestocks were harmed or killed.

In the Civil War, the military occupied land for security reasons and maintained its establishments. No one could enter these areas except for military personnel. After the conflict ended, the military released most of the land, but certain lands such as Mullikullam in Manner are still occupied. The military also runs tourism sites such as the Thalsevana Holiday Resort and Restaurant in Valikamam. Some families were provided alternate lands, but other families continue to protest for their private land. Despite pressure from the international community, some of these lands have been reoccupied by other departments.

The Department of Archeology (DOA)’s main mandate is the restoration and preservation of Sinhala Buddhist culture, but they use this to colonize lands in the Tamil homeland. When the DOA identifies ruins (i.e. ancient stones or broken statues), they demarcate the land under their department. The entrance is closed and all productive activities are ceased. A Buddhist monk enters the area and a temple is built around him. He opens the space up to devotees, usually family members from the South, to clean the premises and cook. Once a number of families have been settled, the area becomes a Sinhala-Buddhist community. Kurunthurmalai temple is an example of a temple’s construction under the premise of archaeological restoration, despite the presence of a court order.

The DOA’s narrative only promotes Sinhala Buddhism. So only Sinhala people can enter these areas and pray. Tamil historians have pointed to the presence of Tamil Buddhists in the North but these nuanced identities are unable to fit into the state’s definition of a fixed Sinhala Buddhist identity. Land colonization by the DOA, as a result, upends and fractures the complexity of identity in the island.

Similarly, the Department of Wildlife Conservation (DWC) declares land to be under its authority for conservation purposes. Once land is allocated to the DWC, people cannot enter unless they have permission. Land allocated under the DWC in the Civil War naturally turned into forests. When the state mapped the area, they demarcated occupied private land as forest cover.

“We have certain places where the house is owned by a private individual and the toilet is owned by the DWC,” Sandun said. “Conservation is important but this is an arbitrary declaration of zones. We have asked for a proper mapping of the area for environmental conservation and private lands. This can help the release of lands to citizens.”

Despite their mandate for conservation, DWC-held land has also been used to set up cultivation projects. In 2015, the president claimed demilitarized land to be forest cover. The DWC set up elephant fences as borders, initiated reforestation projects, and the Civil Defense Forces (CDF) occupied these areas. In 2021, former Wildlife Conservation Minister Wimalaweera Dissanayake asked 600 CDF members to cultivate nut trees in the 300 acres allocated to each of them. Subsequently, the CDF members erected fences and claimed to be involved in a reforestation scheme, despite it being a cultivation scheme.

Another example is the occupation of the coastal belt. Coastal land in Sri Lanka is common land and in the past fishermen used this land to host their shelters, boats, and nets. After the tsunami in 2004, the state prevented construction in a 100 meter area that separated coast and land. When the Civil War ended in 2009, the state decided to allocate this land for tourism. In the Eastern Province, in particular, land has been sold to hotels.

The occupation of land by various state departments denies people access to the land, natural resources, and local infrastructure. Land that could potentially be used to stimulate the local economy is held by the state. The state is able to occupy, appropriate, and extract the lands for its benefit at the expense of the people it belongs to.

“If land is not prioritized, who are the beneficiaries of a political solution?” Rasamanickam asked.

The release of private land is just a start. There are a number of people that relocated from the plantations to the North and members of oppressed castes that never had land.

“There is a large section of society in the North that is landless. They never had land to start. This requires a much broader scheme for land alienation and land redistribution,” said Ahilan Kardirgamar, a lecturer at the University of Jaffna.

Militarized Capitalism

A study published in 2017 touched on the concept of militarized capitalism in the North-East. The idea is that militarization intersected with capitalism, in the form of apparel factories set up in former LTTE-occupied areas. The military helped these factories secure property, production sites, and a labor force in 2009. They also built infrastructure such as roads to increase connectivity. The factories set up training centers to indoctrinate the labor force into the rules of capitalism, namely technical skills, presentation and interpersonal skills. At this point, civilians still employed the labor force.

Over time, the intersection of capitalism and militarization coalesced into one form: militarized capitalism. In Mullaitivu alone, there are a number of military-run businesses (i.e. farms, hotels, and factories), recruitment of civilians into the military-run Civil Security Department (CSD) and interference by the military in the private sector. People are stuck in a cycle of control, dependence, and debt. As a result, the military, as a hand of capitalism, has a monopoly over the local economy and local political activity.

“The local people cannot access their land, natural resources, and markets. They are denied opportunities,” Sandun said. “Smallholder businesses and SMEs are supposed to compete. This is not a fair or equal competition. This bodes badly for the entire economy. It provides control of the economy to a limited group of people.

“Look at Myanmar and Pakistan. The authority of the military has been built through economic exercises. In those countries, the military controls the economy,” he continued.

The structural dependence of local livelihoods on the military means that they are instrumentalized for political purposes. CSD employees were used to campaign for former President Mahinda Rajapaksa’s re-election in 2015. Workers had been told to protest the transfer of the CSD to civilian authorities in 2017.

Impact

With the end of the Civil War, repression became normalized in Sri Lanka’s North-East. In 2017, the district of Mullaitivu had 60,000 troops – 25 percent of the approximately 243,000 active military personnel in the entire country. For every two citizens, there was one soldier.

In 2024, over a decade since the war ended, Tamil people are haunted by surveillance, harassment, and intimidation. Women, in particular, have not received justice for the sexual violence they experienced in 2009. They encounter armed men in mundane situations: as they purchase food, enter schools, and access resources. Female-headed households are particularly culpable to violence. Those who protest have received visits from armed men at late hours, sources have disclosed.

Research from 2020 mapped out diminished civic space for minorities across Sri Lanka. While this space briefly opened up in the 2022 protests in the South, activists have encountered a climate of repression in events that remember Tamil people, such as the Mullivaikkal remembrance event in 2023 in Borella Cemetery and 2024 in Wellawatte Beach. Similarly, protests for Palestine are accompanied by a police force and water cannons.

“Tamils in the North-East have fought for the right to commemorate for many years prior, facing severe repression from the state. While commemoration events marking the Tamil Genocide Remembrance Day and Maaveerar Naal happen, the participants and organizers continue to face harassment from the state,” said Mario Arulthas, a Ph.D. candidate at SOAS, University of London. “The people organizing Tamil remembrance events in Colombo only started in recent years and are in a space that the state is not used to and therefore faced some backlash. Tamils have shown that these spaces, while contested, must be fought for.”

The deprivation of economic and civic rights has left the North-East vulnerable to external shocks. Sri Lanka’s poverty rate increased from 4 to 7 million during 2019-2023. While the economic crisis hit the entire island, the impact is compounded in the Tamil homeland. Research from 2019 revealed that multidimensional poverty had declined from 2007-2013, but existed in pockets in the North-East. In 2023, a UNDP report identified 55.7 percent of the country to be multidimensionally vulnerable, mostly from areas in the North, North-Central, and Eastern provinces. Many people have been forced into debt to secure basic necessities such as food and medicine. Reports by the World Food Program and U.N. Food and Agricultural Organization in 2023 exposed the acute food insecurity in districts in the North-East.

Tamil Vote

The Tamil people’s choice is crucial for the upcoming presidential election because no party is likely to secure a majority in the first round. Data from 2019 revealed that the North-East has exceptional voter turnout. These votes helped Sajith Premadasa and his party become a contender in the 2019 presidential election. The upcoming election is a three-horse race run by three candidates. As the Sinhala vote is likely to be split into three, the minority Tamil votes are essential for a party to secure a victory.

Tamil nationalist parties have announced a number of options: a boycott of the elections, support for a candidate in the South, or a common candidate for the Tamil vote. While some feel that the common candidate is an opportune moment to further Tamil demands, others are critical of it.

“The common candidate is a distraction. The Tamil nationalist parties have distorted the entire project. They remain on this one-track, polarizing ethnic project but this does not help the Tamil people,” Kardirgamar observed.

In a local paper, leader of ITAK, M. A. Sumanthiran said that presidential elections are not the time to make statements about Tamil demands.

“No party or a candidate is likely to receive 50 percent in the first count. So the president is likely to focus on the second preference. He could rely on SLPP members for the Southern votes and CWC for the Hill Country Tamil votes,” said Shreen Saroor, an activist and member of the Women’s Action Network.

“The Cabinet recently issued a statement about burial rites and an apology for forced cremation done during the pandemic, probably for the Muslim votes. It is also speculated that the president and the Tamil common candidate have a deal to further split the Tamil votes.”

Despite the importance of the Tamil vote, apart from lip service about the provincial councils, none of the candidates has proposed a radical solution to either the national question or the economic crisis. In the North-East, they manifest as one crisis.

CAMBODIA

Slew of arrests to curb protests over joint Laos and Vietnam development plans

A video of three activists denouncing decades-old land concessions triggered a new crackdown on dissent. Capital armored to prevent demonstrations that exiled opposition leaders had called for Aug. 18. Hun Manet: “We will not tolerate protests against the government like those that took place in Bagladesh.”

Phnom Penh (AsiaNews) - The Defense Ministry in Phnom Penh rejoices at the “failure” of the opposition's attempt that “from abroad” had called for protest. But the other side of the coin is the dozens of activists arrested last weekend to prevent any demonstration in the Cambodian capital.

Turning into yet another showdown by Hun Sen and his son Hun Manet against all forms of dissent is the controversy surrounding the Cambodia-Laos-Vietnam Triangle Development Area (CLV), the special economic zone established in 2004 that many Cambodians say is turning into a danger of new despoliation of their lands.

Triggering the clash was an 11-minute video posted on Facebook last month by three Cambodian activists - Srun Srorn, Peng Sophea and San Sith - who were speaking, precisely, about general concerns about the CLV.

In response, Hun Sen himself-now president of the Senate, after handing over leadership of the government to his son Hun Sen last year once he liquidated all opposition in the country-announced in a televised address that he had ordered the arrest of the activists on July 23. And he warned everyone against making comments about the potential loss of Cambodia's territorial integrity to Vietnam.

Hun Manet had then recoiled on Aug. 2, warning Cambodians against the thought that they might carry out protests against the government “similar to those that took place in Bangladesh” (which led to the deposition of Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina ed.). “I do not want to see this kind of situation happen in Cambodia, especially in Phnom Penh,” the prime minister said.

The Cambodia-Laos-Vietnam Triangle Development Area is an agreement aimed at encouraging economic development and trade between five border provinces in Vietnam, four provinces in Laos, and Cambodia's four northeastern provinces of Ratanakiri, Mondulkiri, Kratie, and Stung Treng.

The arrangement - strongly desired by Hun Sen - allows the free flow of people for trade and investment. But some Cambodians are concerned that multi-decade concessions of farmland to Vietnamese or Laotian investors will result in a loss of control over large tracts of Cambodian land.

The CLV “is a cover for further illegal deforestation, land evictions and exploitation of natural resources for foreign gains,” wrote exiled opposition leader Mu Sochua on X, the social network formerly known as Twitter.

Demonstrations by exiles in solidarity with the three activists arrested July 23 were held in South Korea, Japan and Australia, with a call for Cambodians to also protest at home on Aug. 18.

It was an invitation that the Phnom Penh government nipped in the bud once again: the Cambojanews website speaks of more than 20 arrests among political figures, human rights activists and young people in the days leading up to the planned August 18 demonstration in Phnom Penh, while strict checks were carried out on travelers entering the capital. Again on Sunday morning, the website reports, police picked up four members of the Khmer Student League Association (KLSA) at their office.

General Chhum Sucheat, spokesman for the Ministry of Defense, was thus able to report that there was no sign of any movements or rallies in the country on August 18. “The Cambodian people and youth,” he added, “are not fools; they understand the situation and have chosen not to participate in or support opposition activities.

While from exile Sam Rainsy, one of the opposition's best-known faces commented, “Terrible but familiar overreaction in Cambodia to protests over CLV. The regime would rather imprison innocent citizens than take public responsibility on any issue.”

Palestinian Authority Seeks Support for Mahmoud Abbas' Gaza Visit


By Jewish News Syndicate Staff | Monday, 19 August 2024 

Palestinian Authority leaders have started contacting countries and global bodies, including Israel, to receive backing and lay the groundwork for a visit by P.A. leader Mahmoud Abbas to the Gaza Strip, Ramallah's official Wafa news agency reported Sunday.

"The president and leadership are preparing to travel to the Gaza Strip which is subjected to a genocidal war by the Israeli occupation, in order to restore national unity and emphasize that the State of Palestine and the Palestine Liberation Organization (PLO) are the mandate holders responsible for the entire State of Palestine," according to the report.

P.A. officials are reportedly in contact with counterparts from the United Nations, including permanent members of the Security Council, the Arab League, the Organization of Islamic Cooperation, the European Union and the African Union, among others.

The diplomatic press is meant to "ensure the success of this step and to secure support and maximum participation. Israel has also been notified," added the report.

Abbas announced his desire to visit Gaza during an address last week to the Turkish parliament in Ankara.

"Even if my life was at risk, our lives, they are not dearer than the lives of children or anyone in Gaza. We are implementing Sharia [Islamic law]; we seek victory or martyrdom. This is according to Islamic Sharia," he stated.

The P.A. leader has not visited the Strip since Hamas violently seized control of the enclave in 2007.

During his speech on Thursday, Abbas offered a prayer for slain Hamas leader Ismail Haniyeh, who was killed last month in Tehran.

"The latest massacre, the latest oppression, was the crime against the leader martyr Ismail Haniyeh. I call upon you, my brothers and sisters, to say Al-Fatiha on his soul," Abbas said, using the term for a Koran chapter often recited to ask for mercy on behalf of the deceased.

In his remarks, which lasted approximately 40 minutes, Abbas called on all to help "liberate the more than 10,000 Palestinian detainees in Israeli jails," including Hamas terrorists captured during the Oct. 7 massacre.

Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has repeatedly rejected the prospect of the P.A. playing any role in governing Gaza following the war against Hamas.

"Oslo was the mother of all sins. The difference between Hamas and the P.A. is only that Hamas wants to destroy us here and now, and the P.A. wants to do it in stages," the prime minister told the Knesset Foreign Affairs and Defense Committee in December, referring to the 1993 Oslo Accords.

"We cooperate with them [the P.A.] against Hamas when it serves their interest and ours, up to a certain limit. We decided a few months ago that we don't want them to collapse so that Hamas does not rise up in Judea and Samaria as well," he added.

Netanyahu's firm stance against a P.A.-controlled Gaza is at odds with the Biden administration, which has taken the position that the P.A. is the best alternative to Hamas.

Meanwhile, senior Hamas terrorist Musa Abu Marzouk last month announced the signing of a Palestinian unity agreement that includes Abbas' Fatah faction, which rules areas of Judea and Samaria.

The "Beijing Declaration" was signed by 14 Palestinian factions that took part in negotiations hosted by Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi.

Israeli Foreign Minister Israel Katz said in a statement that "instead of rejecting terrorism, Mahmoud Abbas embraces the murderers and rapists of Hamas, revealing his true face.

"In reality, this won't happen because Hamas's rule will be crushed, and Abbas will be watching Gaza from afar. Israel's security will remain solely in Israel's hands," Jerusalem's top diplomat added.Republished with permission from Jewish News Syndicate





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Read more: Palestinian Authority Seeks Support for Mahmoud Abbas' Gaza Visit | Newsmax.com

WWIII

‘Unlawful and aggressive’: Philippines say coast guard ships damaged after rammed by Chinese vessels in disputed waters


This handout photo taken and released by the Philippine Coast Guard (PCG) on August 19, 2024 shows damage to the Coast Guard ship BRP Cape Engano (MRRV-4411) following a collision with a Chinese coast guard vessel near Sabina Shoal in disputed waters of the South China Sea.

Monday, 19 Aug 2024 

BEIJING, Aug 19 — Chinese and Philippine vessels collided on Monday during a confrontation near a disputed shoal in the South China Sea, the two countries said.

China and the Philippines have had repeated confrontations in the vital waterway in recent months, including around a warship grounded years ago by Manila on the contested Second Thomas Shoal that hosts a garrison.

Beijing has continued to press its claims to almost the entire South China Sea despite an international tribunal ruling that its assertion has no legal basis.

China Coast Guard spokesperson Gan Yu said a Philippine vessel had “deliberately collided” with a Chinese ship early Monday.

“Philippine Coast Guard vessels... illegally entered the waters near the Xianbin Reef in the Nansha Islands without permission from the Chinese government,” Gan said, using the Chinese names for the Sabina Shoal and the Spratly Islands.

“The China Coast Guard took control measures against the Philippine vessels in accordance with the law,” Gan added.

Manila’s National Task Force on the West Philippine Sea, meanwhile, said two of its coast guard ships were damaged in collisions with Chinese vessels that were conducting “unlawful and aggressive manoeuvres” near the Sabina Shoal.

The confrontation “resulted in collisions causing structural damage to both Philippine Coast Guard vessels”, Manila said.

China claims the Sabina Shoal, which is located 140 kilometres west of the Philippine island of Palawan, the closest major land mass.

Manila and Beijing have stationed coast guard vessels around the shoal in recent months, with the Philippines fearing China is about to build an artificial island there.

‘Dangerous’

Footage purporting to show the incident attributed to the Chinese coast guard and shared by state broadcaster CCTV showed one ship, identified as a Philippine vessel by the Beijing side, apparently running into the left side of a Chinese ship before moving on.

Another 15-second clip appears to show the Chinese vessel making contact with the rear of the Philippine ship.

Captions said the Philippine ship made a “sudden change of direction” and caused the crash.

The Chinese coast guard spokesperson accused Philippine vessels of acting “in an unprofessional and dangerous manner, resulting in a glancing collision”.

“We sternly warn the Philippine side to immediately cease its infringement and provocations,” Gan said.

Manila, however, blamed Beijing, with National Security Council director-general Jonathan Malaya saying the Philippines’ BRP Cape Engano sustained a 13-centimetre hole in its right beam after “aggressive manoeuvres” by a China Coast Guard vessel caused a collision.

A second Philippine coast guard ship, the BRP Bagacay, was “rammed twice” by a China coast guard vessel about 15 minutes later and suffered “minor structural damage”, Malaya said.

The Filipino crew were unhurt and proceeded with their mission to resupply Philippine-garrisoned islands in the Spratly group, he added.

Repeated clashes

Chinese state news agency Xinhua reported that the incident took place at 3:24 am local time.

It also said a Philippine coast guard ship had then entered waters near the Second Thomas Shoal around 6 am.

The shoal lies about 200 kilometres from Palawan and more than 1,000 kilometres from China’s nearest major landmass, Hainan island.

The repeated clashes in the South China Sea have sparked concern that Manila’s ally the United States could be drawn into a conflict as Beijing steps up efforts to push its claims in the sea.

Analysts have said Beijing’s aim is to push eastwards from the Second Thomas Shoal towards the neighbouring Sabina Shoal, encroaching on Manila’s exclusive economic zone and normalising Chinese control of the area.

The situation has echoes of 2012, when Beijing took control of Scarborough Shoal, another strategic area of the South China Sea closest to the Philippines.

— AFP

China accuses the Philippines of deliberately crashing one of its ships into a Chinese vessel


By Associated Press

 Aug 19, 2024

China’s coast guard accused the Philippines of deliberately crashing one of its ships into a Chinese vessel early on Monday near Sabina Shoal, a new flashpoint in the increasingly alarming territorial disputes between the countries in the South China Sea.
Two Philippine coast guard ships entered waters near the shoal, ignored the Chinese coast guard's warning and “deliberately collided” with one of China’s boats at 3.24am, a spokesperson said in a statement on the Chinese coast guard's website.
Philippine authorities did not immediately comment on the encounter near the disputed atoll in the Spratly Islands, where overlapping claims are also made by Vietnam and Taiwan.

Mischief Reef in the Spratly Islands in the South China Sea. (Getty images)
“The Philippine side is entirely responsible for the collision,” spokesman Gan Yu said.
“We warn the Philippine side to immediately stop its infringement and provocation, otherwise it will bear all the consequences arising from that.”
Gan added China claimed “indisputable sovereignty” over the Spratly Islands, known in Chinese as Nansha Islands, including Sabina Shoal and its adjacent waters.

The Chinese name for Sabina Shoal is Xianbin Reef.
In a separate statement, he said the Philippine ship that was turned away from Sabina Shoal entered waters near the disputed Second Thomas Shoal, ignoring the Chinese coast guard’s warnings.
“The Chinese coast guard took control measures against the Philippine ship in accordance with law and regulation,” he added.
READ MORE: New poll spells dire news for government
Sabina Shoal, which lies about 140 kilometres west of the Philippines' western island province of Palawan, has become a new flashpoint in the territorial disputes between China and the Philippines.
The Philippine coast guard deployed one of its key patrol ships, the BRP Teresa Magbanua, to Sabina in April after Filipino scientists discovered submerged piles of crushed corals in its shallows which sparked suspicions that China may be bracing to build a structure in the atoll.
READ MORE: Sydney Metro trains open doors after a decade of work

A member of the Philippine Coast Guard holds flags during the arrival of Chinese naval training ship, Qi Jiguang, for a goodwill visit at Manila's port, Philippines, June 14, 2023. (AP Photo/Basilio Sepe, File) (AP)

The Chinese coast guard later deployed a ship to Sabina.
Sabina lies near the Philippine-occupied Second Thomas Shoal, which has been the scene of increasingly alarming confrontations between Chinese and Philippine coast guard ships and accompanying vessels since last year.
IN PICTURES: TV stars shine on Logies red carpet
China and the Philippines reached an agreement last month to prevent further confrontations when the Philippines transports new batches of sentry forces, along with food and other supplies, to Manila’s territorial outpost in the Second Thomas Shoal, which has been closely guarded by Chinese coast guard, navy and suspected militia ships.
The Philippine navy transported food and personnel to the Second Thomas Shoal a week after the deal was reached and no incident was reported, sparking hope that tensions in the shoal would eventually ease.

SMOKERS’ CORNER: FEAR AND LOATHING IN BRITAIN

Nadeem F. Paracha 

Published August 18, 2024 

DAWN

Illustration by Abro

From July 30, deadly riots erupted in Britain when three young girls were stabbed to death in a quiet seaside town of the country. Britain’s far-right groups took to the streets when rumours of the murderer being a Muslim asylum-seeker spread, especially from social media platforms such as X. The murderer is actually a Rwandan youth who is a British citizen. But this didn’t stop far-right leaders from milking the rumour.

The riots were largely pitched against Muslims. But this is not the first time this has happened. However, till the 1980s, violence between white far-right groups and non-whites in Britain was often described as “race riots.” In these, far-right gangs fought pitched battles against immigrants from Caribbean countries and from South Asian regions.

It was from the late 1990s onwards that race riots in Britain increasingly began to be seen as violence between far-right groups and Muslims — especially after the 9/11 attacks in the US, and a spate of terrorist attacks by militant Islamists in Britain. Consequently, incidents of Islamophobia, too, witnessed a manifold increase.

Yet, even the roots of anti-Muslim riots in Britain can be found in the history of race riots in the country, despite the fact that the violence then was largely aimed at non-whites and not against Muslims alone. One of the first major ‘race riots’ in Britain took place in 1919. White working class men and soldiers returning from the First World War, began to attack non-whites for ‘usurping’ their jobs. The Chinese community suffered the most in these ‘riots’. It wasn’t religion but race that was the target.

Although far-right groups in the UK have initiated hostile attacks against Muslims for decades, could the recent ‘race riots’ prove to be a tipping point for both the rioters and Muslims in Britain?

This would remain the case across the decades till the 1990s. In a 2016 essay, Palestinian Professor Emeritus at Catholic University of Louvain in Belgium Bichara Khader wrote that immigration was not a serious issue as such in Europe till the mid-1960s. In the 1950s, large numbers of immigrants from Caribbean countries, South Asia, Southeast Asia, the Middle East and Africa began arriving in various European cities.

As European economies boomed, these immigrants were seen as vital contributors to this boom. It was only when the economies began to contract from the early 1970s that the term “migration problem” gained increased usage. Yet, it was still not linked to a “Muslim problem” as it is today.

The economic turmoil of the 1970s triggered vicious riots. These were explained as ‘race riots’ because they involved white far-right ‘hooligans’ on the one side, and non-whites on the other. The reasons were economic. The far-right accused their governments of allowing non-white immigrants to “steal white jobs.” It really wasn’t a clash of cultures as such — or not yet.

Till the early 1980s, Muslims in Europe were not very exhibitionistic about their faith. For example, their lifestyle in Britain mirrored that of white working class men, who would work all day in factories and then gather in pubs in the evenings for a drink. But, once settled, Muslim men began to marry women from their home countries.

They then brought them to Europe, even though it wasn’t uncommon for some to marry European women as well. According to Khader, most of the women who came as wives were from rural and peri-urban areas of South Asia, the Middle East and North Africa. They had been influenced by Islamist social movements that were initiated in their home countries from the mid-1970s. The influence of the wives changed the settlers’ attitude towards their community’s ‘cultural values.’

This attracted an influx of Muslim preachers, who began to set up shop in various European cities, especially in Britain. They were particularly appealing to the second-generation of British Muslims, especially from families that had failed to be fully assimilated by European integration policies.

This generation began to adopt the ideas proliferated by the preachers. The second generation used these to invent an identity for themselves, as Muslims in non-Muslim countries. Consequently, the presence of veiled women and mosques grew. This is when the “migration problem” began to be seen as a “Muslim problem”, triggering episodes of Islamophobia.



The chaadar, niqab and hijab were vigorously promoted by the preachers among the women of Muslim diasporas in the West. Men, too, were encouraged to adopt an “Islamic look” by letting their beards grow. From the 1990s, ‘multiculturalism’ began to be championed by most Western countries.

It was closely linked to the rise of neoliberal economics, which aimed to construct a global, interconnected economy. This meant that a Muslim community (in the West) didn’t have to completely immerse itself in the secular values of the West, as long as it was knitted to an integrated economy and remained productive.

But what happens when such an economy begins to struggle? A publicly asserted cultural identity, especially that of a diaspora, becomes that much harder to be accepted. It often comes under scrutiny, and criticised for being purposely ‘alien’ and even provocative.

After economies in Europe and the US began to come under stress in 2008, the number of complaints against Islamophobia increased. A majority of Muslims, who had adopted the identity that was first formulated by Islamist evangelical groups, found themselves in a quagmire. The way they looked, or publicly practised their faith, had been accepted by a multicultural West, but now this was changing.

The result was the electoral rise of populist far-right groups and the growth of anti-Muslim sentiment. Even though, according to most surveys, this sentiment is not widespread as such, it does get magnified online during riots or when Muslims are actually involved in any violent activity.

It is believed that non-Muslim immigrants in the West have gradually succeeded in pragmatically integrating themselves in the cultures of the countries they are settled in, but the Muslims have not. What’s more, this has been the case even in wealthy Muslim countries. For example, countries such as the UAE have imposed visa curbs on citizens of some Muslim-majority countries who want to work there. The UAE government has complained that workers from these countries are not willing to appreciate UAE laws against certain political and religious activities.

All this is not to suggest that white far-right groups have a point. They are simply using the Muslims as scapegoats, to divert attention from their own miserable failings. For example, Brexit, which was championed by these groups, has rapidly shrunk Britain’s economy and influence. But it is also high time for the Muslims in the West to realise that the zeitgeist of multiculturalism has eroded, and that they should accordingly refigure the way they exhibit their Muslim identity.

Published in Dawn, EOS, August 18th, 2024

BANGLADESH

Hasina’s downfall

Aizaz Ahmad Chaudhry 

Published August 11, 2024

AS Sheikh Hasina Wajed boarded a military helicopter to flee from Dhaka last Monday, TV television screens showed scenes of angry protesters ransacking her official residence and hacking away at statues of her father, Sheikh Mujibur Rahman, the first leader of Bangladesh, who himself was assassinated this month in 1975.

The student-led protests over civil service job quotas spiralled out of control and became the immediate cause for the downfall of Sheikh Hasina, who ruled Bangladesh from 1996 to 2001, and then again from 2009-2024. However, most Bangladesh watchers believe she was sitting atop a volcano waiting to erupt, a volcano that her own repressive policies, human rights abuses, and a rigged election last January had created.

Since 2009, Hasina had ruled Bangladesh with an iron fist. Systematically, she clamped down all political opponents. Her main political rival, Khaleda Zia of the Bangladesh Nationalist Party, who served twice as prime minister, was caught in a web of legal cases and sentenced to 17 years in prison in 2018.

The leaders of the Jamaat-i-Islami also faced brutal persecution; many of them were convicted and executed by a so-called international crimes tribunal. In the final days before her unceremonious end, Hasina had exhorted Awami League supporters to fight the demonstrators, which brought the country to the brink of a civil war.

Pakistan and Bangladesh can make a fresh start.

Where is Bangladesh headed now? In the wake of Hasina’s flight, complete mayhem has engulfed the country. The residences of former ministers were ransacked, and Mujibur Rahman’s home in Dhanmondi was attacked. The police went on strike, and total chaos enveloped the country for days. Parliament has been dissolved, and an interim government headed by Muhammad Yunus formed.

The top priority at this stage is to restore law and order and then hold fresh elections so that a truly representative government comes to power. If that is not done, the unrest might continue because the people would not want to move from one dictatorial rule (Sheikh Hasina’s) to another. It is important for the people to resume their life. As it is, Bangladesh’s economy had begun to decline after years of impressive growth, and economic inequalities and unemployment have increased.

To what extent are these developments a setback for India, the Sheikh Hasina regime’s main foreign backer? India’s foreign policy under Prime Minister Narendra Modi has increasingly become more assertive and hegemonic towards its smaller neighbours. Bangladesh under Sheikh Hasina’s watch was being perceived as subservient to India, much to the resentment of the people, who wanted India’s friendship but not its dominance.

This writer had the opportunity to participate in the Bay of Bengal conversations in Dhaka in 2022, and could sense growing discomfort regarding India’s dominating influence over Bangladesh. In that session, a Bangladeshi-American scholar discussed his article ‘Saath saath [together] or too close for comfort?’ on Bangladesh’s relations with India. In many ways, it represented the prevailing sentiment.

How will these developments affect Pakistan’s relations with Bangladesh? This is an opportunity to reset ties. Sheikh Hasina had cut off all links with Pakistan, even though her father, Mujibur Rahman, had committed to ‘forgetting the past and making a fresh start’ when he signed a tripartite agreement between Bangladesh, India and Pakistan in April 1974.

Sheikh Hasina refused to bury the bitterness of the past, and started using the UN platform to pro­pagate false claims that three million Bengalis were killed in 1971, a claim that is grossly exaggerated and evidentially re­­jected by impartial observers. It is re­­g­rettable that exces­ses were committed by all sides, and hence it is important for both countries to let bygones be bygones and move on. Instead, she tried to politicise the events of 1971 to her own advantage, and continued to deepen estrangement with Pakistan. When India refused to join the Saarc summit in Islamabad in 2016, Sheikh Hasina teamed up with it to make Saarc, which was created in Dhaka in 1985, dysfunctional.

Given that there are large segments of people in Bangladesh and Pakistan who would like to normalise bilateral ties, a fresh beginning can be made, first by the interim government, and later when an elected government assumes power in Bangladesh. One hopes that fresh elections are held soon, as the democratic ethos of the people of Bangladesh must be respected.

An important lesson for Pakistan is for our political parties to adopt a culture of live and let live, respect people’s aspirations, and resolve issues through the democratic way of negotiations in parliament, and not on the streets.

Published in Dawn, August 11th, 2024

Indian foreign policy

Aizaz Ahmad Chaudhry 

Published August 18, 2024

DAWN

WHEN it started its life as an independent country in 1947, India chose a foreign policy that would keep it ‘non-aligned’ in the polarised environment created by the US-USSR Cold War. India leaned towards the Soviet Union, maintained rather cold relations with the US, sought friendly ties with China premised on the Panchsheel (the five principles of peaceful coexistence), and saw itself as a member of the developing world. In South Asia, it embarked on a hostile relationship with Pakistan for separating from so-called ‘Mother India’.

Decades later, India’s foreign policy has undergone a paradigm shift, particularly since the dawn of the 21st century. With the US pivot to Asia, India has become the partner of choice for America’s Indo-Pacific Strategy that seeks to contain the further rise of China. India’s relations with China remain tension-ridden, even though both countries have flourishing economic and commercial ties. With Russia, India maintains a close relationship, notwithstanding the fact that the US-led West and Russia are at daggers drawn over the prospect of Ukraine joining Nato. India is, thus, playing a tight balancing act in its relations with the major powers. It describes its present foreign policy as the pursuit of national interests through ‘strategic autonomy’.

With UN-led universal multilateralism on the retreat, India has entered into several mutually incompatible multi-alignments, such as BRICS, SCO, and QUAD. It considers itself a leader of the Global South, and has deepened its ties with East Asia and Africa.

What has helped India maintain largely positive relations with all major powers is its growing economy and stable democracy. As the world’s fifth largest economy, it has sufficient buying power to purchase expensive military hardware from diverse sources, attract foreign investments for its growing economy, particularly its road and rail infrastructure, and enhance manifold its trade with the rest of the world. The Indian diaspora has been mobilised to project a positive image of the country. At the same time, however, divisive Hindutva nationalism, demonisation of minorities, and massive unemployment and high inflation have tarnished its stature.


India’s attitude towards South Asian states has not changed.

While a lot has changed in India’s global profile, what has not is its foreign policy towards its South Asian neighbours. India continues with its hostile posture towards Pakistan, and pursues a competitive, even rival relationship with China. Its policy to engage only with non-Taliban Afghan groups has failed. It has also bullied Nepal through economic embargos and the occupation of part of its territory. In the south, Sri Lanka often faces tough choices in its relations with both India and China. Bangladesh, surrounded on three sides by India, has experienced suffocating Indian dominance, particularly under Sheikh Hasina Wajed who recently fled to India. The Maldives has often demonstrated its discontent with Indian interference. Consequently, India’s ‘Neighbourhood First’ policy is in the doldrums, undermining its global ambitions.

Central to India’s overbearing attitude towards its South Asian neighbours is the China factor. India is unhappy with China’s close ties with Pakistan and Chinese attempts to enter into cooperative relations with Bangladesh, Sri Lanka, Nepal, the Maldives, and even Bhutan whose foreign policy is controlled by India. These countries find China’s BRI projects a lucrative option and wish to exercise their own ‘strategic autonomy’ to benefit from the investments regardless of the Sino-India competition. India needs to recognise the legitimate right of its neighbours to be­­nefit from the in­­vestment opport­unities that ac­­­c-ompany cooperative engagement with China.

Pakistan is one country that has never accepted Indian hegemony in South Asia. This has been reason enough for India to make every effort to isolate it. The Kashmir dispute is unresolved because of India’s refusal to let Kashmiris exercise their right to self-determination. India has suspended all contact with Pakistan, especially since 2016, and chosen to demonise the country by harping on the mantra of cross-border terrorism. In fact, it is Pakistan which now faces India-sponsored terrorism. However, since India’s economy has done well and is a large market, in contrast with Pakistan’s, the world tends to lend a more sympathetic ear to Indian narratives.

For South Asia, India is the elephant in the room. The entire region would benefit if India gave up its dominating posture, and let other South Asian countries exercise the same strategic autonomy vis-à-vis India that the latter wishes to have vis-à-vis the US, China, and Russia. Taking the region along would help India build up its global profile that it cherishes.

The writer is a former foreign secretary and chairman of Sanober Institute Islamabad.

Published in Dawn, August 18th, 2024