Tuesday, August 20, 2024

 


 



'Rocket flames began shooting sideways then the sound wave hit'

Lorna Gordon
BBC News Scotland correspondent

Moment rocket engine explodes during launch test in Shetland

We were in Shetland to film the latest developments in the UK's space race when the rocket launch pad caught fire so dramatically.

Our BBC crew was a safe distance across a bay, around a mile away from the rocket's launch pad at SaxaVord spaceport on Unst when the explosion happened on Monday evening.

The 30-second “hot fire test” intended to replicate the downward thrust required to get a rocket into space - without anything actually taking off.

But it was immediately clear the test had not gone according to plan.


Moment rocket engine explodes in Shetland


Rocket engine explodes during test at Shetland spaceport



The team behind the launch is now trying to work out what went wrong with the ground-based engine firing.

Unst is Britain’s most northerly inhabited island. When it comes to the issue of safety around any rocket testing and eventual firing, its remoteness is part of the attraction.

Several rocket companies vying to take satellites into space have already tested engines at their site.

The spaceport has a licence to enable them to carry out up to 30 launches a year.

BBC News had exclusive access to the launch site to witness German rocket company Rocket Factory Augsburg (RFA) prepare for what should have been one of the final milestones before a first test flight planned for the end of the year.

The RFA One is a 30m-tall, three-stage rocket that can deliver a 1,300kg payload to a sun-synchronous orbit around Earth.

RFA wants to use its rockets to launch satellites into orbit, catering to a growing global demand for space launches.

It hopes to be the first company to launch vertical rockets into orbit from UK soil.

SaxaVord Spaceport said all safety protocols were observed and, as is procedure, the site was evacuated prior to Monday's test, leaving no staff at risk.


BBC News filmed preparations on the engine platform before the failed launch test


As evening drew in, heavy showers which had been sweeping across the island briefly eased, making it easier to observe the test from our distant vantage point.

There were signs the test was imminent: frost appearing on the rocket stage, white clouds billowing from beneath the engine.

At any point before ignition the team monitoring the system could abort the test, even with just seconds to go.

All seemed to be going to plan as the test got under way, until flames began shooting sideways from the engine platform, rather than being directed down.

The sound wave hit us a second or two after the engines appeared to ignite.

Sparks flew in all directions as the launch tower was engulfed in flames.

Loud bangs were accompanied by dark, fiery clouds of smoke, twisting upwards as the flames took hold on the platform where we had earlier watched engineers meticulously prepare for this moment.


RFA was trying to ignite nine helix engines simultaneously


Jonas Kellner from RFA had earlier explained to me what the company was hoping to do.

The purpose of the test was, he said, was to ignite all nine helix engines simultaneously, make sure they ran in a stable manner and then shut them off in safe and controlled manner.

Getting all nine engines to fire simultaneously is complicated.

According to Malcolm Macdonald, Professor of Applied Space Technology at the University of Strathclyde, “space is difficult and rockets are even harder”.

He said one of the challenges when firing multiple engines on the same launch vehicle is to get them firing at the same time, working as a pack.

“They’re all vibrating,” he added, “so getting them all to behave correctly and to perform optimally is a real challenge because of the interference of one rocket engine to the next."

Testing and subsequent launches can be fraught with difficulty.

The first UK satellite mission launch was from Cornwall at the beginning of 2023.

It ended when the Virgin Orbit jumbo jet lost the rocket it released horizontally after it suffered an anomaly.

Last year a SpaceX starship spacecraft exploded minutes after lift off.

Afterwards, Elon Musk congratulated his team on what he called an “exciting launch” and said they had learned a lot.


Before and after the launch explosion at the Unst spaceport


The first stage of RFA's 30-metre long rocket test had been impressive.

As we walked around the launch vehicle ahead of what was ultimately an unsuccessful firing, what also stood out to me was the relative youth of this highly skilled workforce of rocket scientists, engineers and technicians.

The average age here is 29. I’m told this is not unusual for companies developing rockets.

The team in Unst and others back at the company's headquarters in Germany will now start studying the pictures from the cameras they had placed around the site and analysing the huge amount of data they have gathered, trying to work out what caused the fire.

In a statement, RFA said they were aware of the higher risk attached to their "iterative approach" and that they will take their time “to assess the situation" and that their goal was to "return to regular operations as soon as possible”.

Setting vertical rockets into space is hard.

The hot fire test in Unst demonstrated both why these tests are important and how challenging launching rockets can be.

What next for space launch bids after rocket engine explosion in Shetland?

By The Newsroom
Published 20th Aug 2024

Hopes have been dashed that rocket would deliver first orbital satellite launch ever from UK soil later this year

Arocket engine exploded during a test at the SaxaVord Spaceport on Unst, with the fiery conflagration destroying the first stage of the satellite launch vehicle.

German company Rocket Factory Augsburg (RFA) say they are keen to resume operations “as soon as possible” and stress the importance of tests like the one that took place on Monday.

It was hoped this rocket would deliver the first orbital satellite launch ever from UK soil, with plans for it to take place later this year.

Here are some of the key questions about what happens next.

What was it that exploded?

RFA was conducting a “hot fire” of all nine Helix engines on the first stage of the rocket – the lower part of the vehicle which lofts it from the launch pad before separating from the upper stages.

The test took place at the privately-run SaxaVord Spaceport on Unst, the northernmost inhabited island in the UK.

Ultimately, RFA aims to use their rockets to launch satellites into orbit, catering to a growing global demand for space launches.

Called the RFA One, the vehicle is a 30m-tall three-stage rocket, which can deliver a 1,300kg payload to a sun-synchronous orbit around Earth.

What do we know about what went wrong?

Engineers from RFA will be pouring over data and footage from the test to understand what led to the explosion. So far they have not revealed any obvious cause.

The rocket engine explodes during its test launch at the spaceport in Shetland. | BBC

The company is particularly proud of its rocket engines, which use a closed combustion cycle to burn fuel more efficiently than other launchers of the same class.

Professor Malcolm Macdonald of Strathclyde University, an expert in space technology, says the complexity of rocket engine testing increases as more engines are fired up on the same vehicle.

He told the PA news agency: “You expect to pass, but you plan for the possibility of failure.

“Failures of these tests, particularly on rockets, are not that uncommon.

“Particularly on new rockets, we see failures relatively frequently on them.”

What will RFA do now?

RFA say their production process is iterative – meaning they incorporate lessons learned from any failures into the next rocket they build.

Earlier this year, its chief commercial officer Jorn Spurmann told the PA news agency they intend to gradually build up their launch cadence to one a month – meaning work on a replacement launcher is already underway.

The most recent timescale for the first launch from SaxaVord was around September or October, but Prof Macdonald said the explosion is likely to put the attempt back by several months and possibly into the new year.

He said: “It might be possible for them to get another first stage up to Shetland relatively quickly.

“But I think integrating all that together, they’ll then want to repeat this test before they move on to a launch attempt.

“So I think it’s unlikely now that we would see an orbital launch within this year.”

Why test and launch on Unst?

With a population of around 600, Unst is the most northerly inhabited part of the UK.

This location is an advantage for certain types of satellites that require a sun-synchronous orbit, as well as the fact any jettisoned debris will not crash down on land.

Owned by husband and wife Frank and Debbie Strang, SaxaVord is a former RAF base developed into a spaceport with around £30 million of investment.

Will this affect other attempts to launch from Scotland?

RFA is not the only company that hopes to achieve an orbital satellite launch from the UK, though its plans are thought to be the most advanced.

Another German company called HyImpulse also has plans to launch from SaxaVord, as well as the US-based ABL Space Systems.

Meanwhile, another company called Orbex hopes to launch from a different spaceport located in Sutherland.

Their efforts will continue.

Virgin Orbital attempted a horizontal launch from the wing of an aircraft which took off from Cornwall in January 2023 but it failed to deliver its payload.

Is this a setback for the space industry in Scotland?

A number of Scottish companies and academic institutions are involved in manufacturing satellites or analysing data gathered from space.

The sector is believed to generate £180 million in income a year, employing more than 8,500 people.

Prof Macdonald said Scotland has a strong space industry, with launch capability being the only missing ingredient so far.

He said: “Obviously things like this get quite high profile and get a lot of interest, but I think most people within the space sector would be expecting setbacks.

“We build the capability over a number of years, and launch is just a small part of the overall space sector.”

Meanwhile, Dr Andy Campbell, founder of the Scottish Space Network, said the explosion is part of a vital learning process.

He said: “It’s easy to focus on the flames and label it a failure. However, what you’re seeing isn’t failure, it’s progress.”

He continued: “The teams have worked tirelessly to reach this point, and while the outcome wasn’t expected, it’s no less valuable.

“It will provide invaluable insights into their systems and procedures, enabling them to learn, adapt and progress.

“I’m confident we’ll soon see a successful orbital launch from UK soil.”






'More sites needed for Gypsies and travellers'

Dan O'Brien & Chloe Harcombe
BBC News, Wiltshire
]
]Getty Images
Wiltshire Council will find 128 new pitches and seven new sites for Gypsies and travellers by 2038


Creating more sites for Gypsies and travellers is "better for all involved", council officials have said.

Wiltshire Council has launched a consultation to find 128 new pitches and seven new sites in the county by 2038.

Cabinet Member strategic planning Nick Botterill said: "I'm not saying it's easy in all situations - but this is a better way of managing the situation than having random sites which may not be suitable."

A charity for the travelling community said the move comes as a "welcome positive step".



Members of the public are encouraged to have their say on the Gypsies and Travellers Development Plan at one of six consultations events.

Planned sites with properly maintained facilities and utilities are "better for all involved", by having less impact on local communities and offering better outcomes for those living there, the council said.

Travellers on official sites also contribute to local taxes.

Councillor Nick Botterill hopes public events will answer questions about the proposals



Mr Botterill continued: "There are potential tensions between residents and travellers and that's why this has to be handled in a sensitive and professional way," he said.

"Badly managed" sites in the past have caused problems, including litter and broken fencing, Mr Botterill added.

"It's incumbent on landowners, including Wiltshire Council, to ensure that doesn't happen," he said.
Getty Images
Planned sites are "better for all", the council said



Friends, Families and Travellers, a national charity that works on behalf of all Gypsy, Roma and traveller people, said: "Everyone deserves somewhere to call home, and we're hopeful that Wiltshire Council will work hard to address the need as identified in its development plan, by creating much-needed pitches and sites.

"If needed, Friends, Families and Travellers is always available for a conversation to help move things along."

The consultation period ends on 4 October.
NHS nurses and healthcare staff offered 5.5% pay rise


The Royal College of Nursing is one of the unions considering the pay offer

BBC

NHS nurses and healthcare staff across Scotland have been offered a 5.5% pay rise after what unions described as "months of pressure" to get a new deal.

Almost 170,000 staff - including midwives, paramedics, allied health professionals and porters - would get the pay increase for 2024-25, backdated to April.

The proposed deal is expected to cost £448m and is in line with an offer made to NHS workers in England.

The Scottish government said the offer, if accepted by unions, would ensure they have the best NHS pay package in the UK.

Doctors are not included in the deal becuase they negotiate their pay separately.

Colin Poolman, director of the Royal College of Nursing (RCN) in Scotland, said staff were "rightly frustrated" that the Scottish government had "kept them waiting while the cost of living has continued to increase".

The RCN is now among the unions representing Agenda for Change staff that are considering the pay offer.

However, Mr Poolman said it had "taken months of pressure from the RCN and other health trade unions" for the Scottish government to make a pay offer.

He added: "Our pay claim, submitted in February, called for an offer that reflects increases in living costs and begins to address the historic erosion of pay.

"Our members will decide if today's announcement is enough. That process begins with RCN Scotland board members looking at the offer in detail."

The RCN Scotland director stressed: "Nursing staff are the ever-present, safety critical workforce across the whole of health and care.

"Our wages do not reflect this and still won't after today. Fair pay is vital to recruiting and retaining nursing staff, to filling the thousands of vacant nurse jobs and giving people the care they deserve."

'Dithering on pay affects morale'


Unison said it would also consider the offer, although Matt McLaughlin, who leads for the union on NHS pay, said: "It's a shame it's taken this long for NHS staff in Scotland to receive a pay offer.

"Finally, workers will have the opportunity to decide whether to accept or reject the proposed raise, which is in line with wage lifts in many other parts of the UK."

He added: "NHS staff were due a pay rise five months ago, and making them wait for so long is deeply unfair.

"This delay cannot be repeated at the next pay round. The Scottish government must recognise that dithering on pay directly affects staff morale."

Scottish government ministers have previously said they are proud that Scotland is the only nation in the UK to have avoided NHS strike action

Despite avoiding the disruption of strikes, the latest data showed NHS waiting lists in Scotland had reached a record size at the end of March, with 690,000 waits for planned outpatient or inpatient care.


Health Secretary Neil Gray said healthcare staff were the backbone of the NHS


The Scottish government wanted to build 10 new National Treatment Centres to tackle the NHS backlog by delivering an extra 40,000 procedures a year, but spending has been paused with only three open, and two more scheduled to open this year.

The Nuffield Trust found earlier this year that the number of people going private for hospital treatment had risen 80% since 2019.

Health Secretary Neil Gray said he hoped the unions would accept the offer.

“Following weeks of constructive engagement with trade union representatives, I am pleased to have agreed an offer, in recognition of the Pay Review Body recommendations, that will ensure Scotland’s nurses and NHS staff have the best pay package in the UK," he said.

“I want to express my thanks again to Scotland’s hardworking healthcare staff for their commitment and patience – they are the very backbone of the NHS and we are committed to supporting them, particularly during a cost of living crisis."

He added: "I am grateful for the continued efforts around the table and that the trade unions will now put this to their members.”
See the strike action set to hit Scotland in the coming weeks

Ross Hunter
Tue, 20 August 2024

ScotRail workers could be set for strike action next month


THE Scottish Government’s negotiations with trade unions over the summer have managed to avert some of the most high-profile strikes scheduled to hit Scotland.

Fears of another Edinburgh Festival Fringe characterised by garbage building up on the streets came to nothing after ministers found extra funding for councils (although workers have yet to accept the revised pay offer).

Strikes by college lecturers were also called off this week following talks with ministers about securing an improved pay deal.


Yet some strike action is still currently set to occur in Scotland, with some relying upon negotiations with the UK rather than the Scottish Government.
LNER

The LNER route from Edinburgh to London is a key service between the two capitals.

However, Aslef union members employed by LNER are due to strike every weekend from the end of August until mid-November in a long-running dispute over working conditions.

It comes despite UK Government Transport Secretary Louise Haigh declaring an “end” to the industrial dispute with train drivers, which has resulted in 18 days of strike action across numerous services over the past two years.

Currently, a total of 22 days of strike action by LNER drivers remain on the cards with the Edinburgh to London service expected to face severe disruption.
ScotRail

A strike ballot of ScotRail workers closed on Tuesday (August 20), with industrial expected to occur in early September if union members vote in favour.

Unions are demanding an improved pay-offer for workers on the publicly owned railway, with the current verbal offer of a 2% pay increase backdated to April and a further 1% in January 2025 being described by Unite as not “credible”.

READ MORE: ScotRail fares set for price hike as discount scheme scrapped

It comes after a temporary, slimmed-down timetable was introduced due to an ongoing pay dispute with train drivers.

While ScotRail is currently seeking to recruit new drivers, normal timetables rely upon some existing employees working overtime and on rest days to ensure full delivery.

The temporary timetable was introduced in a bid to provide more “certainty” to customers however strike action could mean even fewer services running next month.
Edinburgh Trams

Workers on the Edinburgh Trams backed strike action last week due to health concerns, including a “lack of toilet breaks”.

Unite, which represents 160 tram workers, said more than 91% of workers balloted supported strike action, which could take place within a matter of weeks.

Tram workers say timetable changes have left them without the opportunity to take toilet breaks

The union said that mismanagement had resulted in staff going hours without hydration or toilet breaks, leading to stress amongst workers and reports of health issues.

Edinburgh Trams said it was working with staff and Edinburgh City Council to find “a workable solution” to the issues.

Pay deal offered to NHS Scotland workers after 'months of waiting'

Gregor Young
Tue, 20 August 2024 at 11:35 am IN THESE TIMES

Colin Poolman, director of the Royal College of Nursing in Scotland, said staff were “rightly frustrated” that the Scottish Government had “kept them waiting while the cost of living has continued to increase" (Image: Canva)


THE Scottish Government has offered nurses and other NHS staff a 5.5% pay rise – although unions said it had taken “months of pressure” for ministers to put a deal on the table.

Colin Poolman, director of the Royal College of Nursing in Scotland, said staff were “rightly frustrated” that the Scottish Government had “kept them waiting while the cost of living has continued to increase".

The RCN is now beginning to consider the pay offer – which is in line with that made to NHS workers in England.

The rise would be paid to NHS Scotland staff, including nurses, midwives, paramedics, allied health professionals, porters and others, but would not apply to doctors, whose pay is negotiated separately.

READ MORE: Decriminalisation 'should be part of discussion' amid drug death increase

Almost 170,000 workers across the NHS would benefit from the rise if it was accepted, the Scottish Government said, adding the deal would see more than £448 million invested over 2024-25.

Health Secretary Neil Gray said: “Following weeks of constructive engagement with trade union representatives, I am pleased to have agreed an offer, in recognition of the Pay Review Body recommendations, that will ensure Scotland’s nurses and NHS staff have the best pay package in the UK.

“The unions will now consult their members and I hope it will be accepted.”

Gray added: “I want to express my thanks again to Scotland’s hardworking healthcare staff for their commitment and patience – they are the very backbone of the NHS and we are committed to supporting them, particularly during a cost-of-living crisis.

“I am grateful for the continued efforts around the table and that the trade unions will now put this to their members.”

However, Poolman said it had “taken months of pressure from the RCN and other health trade unions” for the Scottish Government to make a pay offer.

He added: “Our pay claim, submitted in February, called for an offer that reflects increases in living costs and begins to address the historic erosion of pay.

“Our members will decide if today’s announcement is enough. That process begins with RCN Scotland board members looking at the offer in detail.”

The RCN Scotland director stressed: “Nursing staff are the ever-present, safety critical workforce across the whole of health and care.

READ MORE: ScotRail fares set for price hike as discount scheme scrapped

“Our wages do not reflect this and still won’t after today. Fair pay is vital to recruiting and retaining nursing staff, to filling the thousands of vacant nurse jobs and giving people the care they deserve.”

Unison said it too would consider the offer, although Matt McLaughlin, who leads for the union on NHS pay, said: “It’s a shame it’s taken this long for NHS staff in Scotland to receive a pay offer.

“Finally, workers will have the opportunity to decide whether to accept or reject the proposed raise, which is in line with wage lifts in many other parts of the UK.”

He added: “NHS staff were due a pay rise five months ago, and making them wait for so long is deeply unfair.

“This delay cannot be repeated at the next pay round. The Scottish Government must recognise that dithering on pay directly affects staff morale.”
Grenfell disaster was ‘a crime’ – firefighters' union says


A member of the public at the memorial at the base of Grenfell Tower in London in remembrance of those who died in the Grenfell Tower fire on June 14, 2017, June 14, 2024


Andrew Murray
Tuesday, August 20, 2024
MORNINGSTAR

THE Grenfell disaster was “a crime caused by deregulation and institutional failings at the highest level,” the Fire Brigades Union (FBU) said today.

Responding to official acknowledgement that residents in the west London tower block were told to “stay put” for too long during the 2017 fire, FBU general secretary Matt Wrack said: “It is right that stay put is reviewed for situations like Grenfell.

“But we must ask why flammable cladding is still wrapped around the homes of hundreds of thousands of people.

“The government has still not produced proper guidance on how to evacuate a high-rise tower in the middle of a fire, despite having had years to do so.”

He said the FBU had called for a review of “stay put” guidance long before the Grenfell fire, which killed 72 people and is now the subject of a protracted public inquiry.

London Fire Commissioner Andy Roe told the inquiry last week that residents had been told to remain in their flats for too long after the fire took hold.

But Mr Wrack said: “The Grenfell Tower fire was a crime caused by deregulation and institutional failings at the highest level.

“By the time of the fire, the residents of the tower had warned on multiple occasions that their building was unsafe.

“There were various warnings over many years about the dangers of cladding fires, including from the Fire Brigades Union.

“It is a national scandal that our warnings were ignored.

“Firefighters at Grenfell were forced to work under impossible conditions, lacking appropriate preparation, planning and training.

“These high-level failings of policy continue to this day.”
Mpox ‘not the new Covid’: WHO

AFP Published August 20, 2024
Patients await consultation at the treatment centre for Mpox, an infectious disease caused by the monkeypox virus that causes a painful rash, enlarged lymph nodes and fever, in Munigi, Nyiragongo territory, near Goma in North Kivu province of the Democratic Republic of Congo August 19, 2024.—Reuters

The mpox outbreak is not another Covid-19, the World Health Organisation (WHO) said on Tuesday, because much is already known about the virus and the means to control it.

While more research is needed on the Clade 1b strain which triggered the UN agency into declaring a public health emergency of international concern (PHEIC), the spread of mpox can be reined in, the WHO’s European director Hans Kluge said.\\\
In July 2022, the WHO declared a PHEIC over the international outbreak of the less severe Clade 2b strain of mpox, which mostly affected gay and bisexual men. The alarm was lifted in May 2023.

“Mpox is not the new Covid,” Kluge insisted.

“We know how to control mpox. And, in the European region, the steps needed to eliminate its transmission altogether,” he told a media briefing in Geneva, via video link.

“Two years ago, we controlled mpox in Europe thanks to the direct engagement with the most affected communities.

“We put in place robust surveillance; we thoroughly investigated new cases contacts; and we provided sound public health advice.

“Behaviour change, non-discriminatory public health action, and mpox vaccination contributed to controlling the outbreak.”

Kluge said the risk to the general population was low.

“Are we going to go in lockdown in the WHO European region, it’s another Covid-19? The answer is clearly: ‘no’,” he said.

Kluge said the predominant route of transmission remained close to skin-to-skin contact.

But he said it was possible that someone in the acute phase of mpox infection, especially with blisters in the mouth, may transmit the virus to close contact by droplets, in circumstances such as in the home or hospitals.

“The modes of transmission are still a bit unclear. More research is required.”

WHO spokesperson Tarik Jasarevic said the WHO was not recommending the use of masks.

“We are not recommending mass vaccination. We are recommending to use vaccines in outbreak settings for the groups who are most at risk,” he added.

The WHO declared an international health emergency on August 14, concerned by the rise in cases of Clade 1b in the Democratic Republic of Congo and its spread to nearby countries.





How riots in UK’s Southport expose the web of disinformation and lack of accountability
Four individuals, including a Pakistani newsmaker, played a critical role in instigating one of the UK's most violent riots in recent memory.
Published August 20, 2024
DAWN



What do a British businesswoman, a Pakistani newsmaker, a foreign country, and a cigar-puffing kickboxer have in common? It might seem like the beginning of a joke, but it’s no laughing matter for the Punjab Police, which is currently investigating links between these disparate individuals, how they may have contributed to one of the UK’s most violent riots in recent memory, and exposed the extreme vulnerability of British Muslims and their places of worship.

England was hit by a series of race riots earlier this month after the tragic stabbings of three young girls at a Taylor Swift-themed dance party on July 29. The teenager charged with the murders was identified as Axel Rudakubana, whose identity was disclosed after an exceptional court ruling.

But before that, far-right extremist elements spread the narrative that the stabbings were committed by an undocumented Muslim immigrant, who was on a terror watch list.

×




Studies show that this falsehood was viewed over 420,000 times on social media platforms, with a reach of more than 1.7 billion, becoming a lightning rod for Islamophobic anti-immigrant vitriol, which set off a firestorm of attacks resulting in numerous loss of lives, threats to blow up mosques, as well as major property damage.

On the surface of it, the four individuals mentioned at the beginning of this piece share very little in common. Yet all of them have played critical roles in instigating the violence, which reflects the sinister nature of digital disinformation, and how it can incite real-world hatred and horror. It also indicates how limited personal accountability is when it comes to the creators and spreaders of false narratives on social media and serves as a cautionary tale to those who believe what they see online without questioning it.


The businesswoman

Bernadette Spofforth is the successful managing director of a clothing company. Her profile on Linkedin states that she is a “forward thinking and creative individual”, who lives an affluent life, residing in a £1.5 million farmhouse in Cheshire. In her personal life, however, she actively comments and advocates for a number of right-wing conservative positions.

She was a prominent campaigner against the Covid lockdowns and net-zero climate schemes, appearing on national television as well. Before deleting her account, she had tens of thousands of followers on X (formerly Twitter) commenting on new developments regularly.






Just hours after three girls were murdered in Southport on July 29, Spofforth wrote on her account on X: “Ali Al-Shakati was the suspect, he was an asylum seeker who came to the UK by boat last year and was on an MI6 watch list. If this is true, then all hell is about to break loose.”

This post, according to a comprehensive investigation by UK’s Daily Mail, was the first to claim that the Southport attacker was a Muslim, an asylum seeker, and on the MI6 watch list. When confronted by the evidence, Spofforth took no responsibility, saying, “I’m mortified that I’m being accused of this. I did not make it up. I first received this information from somebody in Southport.”

However, she did not back this claim with any evidence and deleted her account soon after.

According to the Daily Mail, she deleted this post later, but it didn’t stop the fire from spreading. The post content made its way to other accounts and websites, fanning the flames, and eventually leading to the violence. However, she took no responsibility for what transpired and said: “My post had nothing to do with the violence we’ve seen across the country. But I acknowledge that it may have been the source for the information used by a Russian news website.”

What website was that?

The foreign ‘adversary’

Enter Channel3Now, a media outlet regularly posting click-bait news content designed to engage and spread. Research analysts say that clickbait sites like Channel3Now are actively involved in using trigger events — of significant national prominence — to generate content that is made to engage the reader/viewer at an emotional level rather than through factual information. Channel3Now is no different, using its website and social media accounts to run sensationalist headlines and stories, with or without evidence.

With outlets like these, it is very common for their staff to pick up on the chatter on social media, and use it to develop their content. Their logic is simple: if it’s already spreading on social media, we need to ride the wave to build our own engagement. The Spofforth post, which had become viral by then, was picked up by Channel3Now’s social media accounts, once again naming the stabbing suspect as a Muslim asylum seeker who was on the MI6 watch list. The post was viewed nearly two million times before it was deleted.











Making the waters even murkier, another research article by The Bureau of Investigative Journalism (TBIJ) revealed that the website claims to be based in the US, but actually started 11 years ago as a Russian-run YouTube channel that posted videos of rally driving in the country.

“The YouTube channel had not posted Russian-language content for 11 years, and could have been bought and repurposed by unknown actors. Channel3 News’ website was created in the summer of 2023, and one of four Facebook pages that use the same name and branding was repurposed twice — once in 2023 and again in May 2024, when it became ‘Channel3 Now’. This page’s administrators are based in Pakistan and the United States….The website itself employs a US-based company that cloaks IP addresses — a common tactic used by online actors trying to conceal their identities,” it said.

The Russian angle is not entirely confirmed, though TBIJ and Daily Mail have both made this claim. But this is not a new phenomenon even if true. Russian sock-puppet media outlets have previously used disinformation in the Westminster and Salisbury Novichok attacks.

Instead, what is of interest is: who was running the site. Because the connection doesn’t end at Moscow. It ends in Lahore. Which is why the Punjab Police is currently involved.
The Pakistani newsmaker

A major investigation by UK’s ITV news, which featured a field trip to Pakistan, ended with the residence of a Lahore-based man who claims to be an independent journalist and is the administrator of Channel3Now. BBC’s investigation also uncovered him as the key person behind the scenes. It has come as a shock that the Southport riots, which have largely targeted British Muslims, including British Pakistanis, were incited by a media outlet partially run from Pakistan.

The man in question claims to be an independent journalist who mostly covers crimes in the US. The media outlets also found his links to multiple other clickbait news accounts, including Fox3Now and Fox7Now, which claim to be American news sites, but are clearly impersonating other major news websites. In fact, Fox3Now and Fox7Now were subject to legal action last year when the American broadcaster Fox successfully fought to regain control of the web addresses on intellectual property grounds.

Fox3Now has been involved in its own share of clickbait-driven disinformation. In 2022, its account sent out a tweet claiming that an active shooting was taking place at Newport Centre Mall in Jersey City, US. The post went viral on X, leading to mass panic, with mall visitors describing the incident as “terrifying”. The post wasn’t taken down until almost two hours later, with the media site admitting there was no active shooter. The sounds which the site claimed to be gunfire were in fact caused by a faulty popcorn machine.

Interestingly, Fox3Now wasn’t the only one spreading this. Other affiliated accounts also ran the same story, including Channel3Now, showing a synergistic relationship between the ‘news’ outlets.






The same occurred in the case of the Southport attacks. Due to the rumours swirling on the identity of the attacker, Channel3Now picked up on the posts being shared online and used them to develop its own breaking news story.





The story remained on its website till July 30, when its headlines removed any mention of ‘Ali al-Shakati’, or the stabber being an alleged asylum seeker. Moreover, a screenshot of the website, obtained from Wayback Machine, shows that the same day, a new story titled “Southport stabbing suspect 17 year old-born in Cardiff to Rwandan parents” was posted, while the original story “17 year old boy arrested in connection with the stabbings in Southport, England” — which was posted 19 hours earlier — mysteriously edited out any mention of Ali al-Shakati.






However, digital forensic analysis shows that the URL or weblink of the original story continued to reference Ali al-Shakati.

Despite attempts by the Channel3Now team to remove any connection to the article, they remained unsuccessful, prompting the outlet to issue an apology on July 31. But by that point, it was too late to stop the rumour mill and the violence that followed.






ITV and BBC independently investigated the administrators behind the site, and tracked down the Pakistan-based journalist. When confronted with the evidence, he continued to maintain that the article had nothing to do with the violence, saying: “Ek chotay se article se itna ishtiaal kaisay phail sakta hai?” (How can so much chaos be spread by such a small article?).

He instead blamed the people of the UK for not addressing the misinformation “peacefully” and causing mayhem. At the same time, he also stated that he had nothing to do with the article and that it was posted by his UK-based staff, who have been fired. Nonetheless, Lahore Deputy Inspector General (Operations) Faisal Kamran has stated that the Punjab Police is analysing the claims made by ITV News and has initiated a probe.





The kickboxer

Despite Channel3Now’s attempts at damage control, the real damage was only starting. High-profile users on X, particularly those associated with the far-right, including anti-Islam activist Tommy Robinson and former GB News presenter Laurence Fox, began to share the rumour as if it was a fact.

The major source of this was Andrew Tate, an infamous British-American kickboxer turned influencer, who is known for his extreme misogynistic views. In a series of posts, Tate, citing the ‘illegal migrant’ rumour, blamed the government for being soft on immigrants and claimed that the Western civilisation was under threat.

A series of inflammatory posts, all citing this disinformation, went to his nearly 10 million followers from X, and from there to millions in the UK. In fact, Reform UK’s Nigel Farage, arguably the most outspoken right-wing politician in the country, cites Tate as his source for the information.





















It’s important to note that Tate’s posts have still not been taken down. So obviously he was remorseful, right? Nope. On August 8, Tate appeared on a news show on YouTube, where he was asked point blank if he would apologise for spreading falsehoods. Not only did Tate refuse to apologise, but he said he wasn’t wrong about the story, except for the ‘illegal’ part. He also said that he had no reason to target Muslims, given that he was a proud Muslim himself.






Like others, he too refused to take responsibility for the violence that ensued.
The aftermath

The digital narratives of the Southport riots reveal two tragedies.

The first is about the propensity of online falsehoods to stoke violence in the real world. A rumour which began from a minor influencer’s account led to widespread panic and anger directed towards communities which had nothing to do with the original attack, without confirmation from reputable sources.

Psychologists refer to this as “confirmation bias”, whereby we are more likely to believe stories that align with our worldview and reject those that do not. Social media has accelerated this process, creating echo chambers where people with the same views corroborate each other and spread the same content among themselves while denying or rejecting any contradicting information. It explains why disinformation is not an individual-led effort, but rather a community-led one, and demonstrates the ease at which false information can do so much damage before it is stopped. We have seen several examples of this.

The second tragedy is the lack of responsibility from the key actors involved in this farce. The Cheshire-based businesswoman claimed she heard the rumour from somewhere, and posted it without verification. Yet, she stated that she was not responsible for what happened.

The Lahore-based investigative journalist said a small article cannot lead to such violence. And, the British-American kickboxer/influencer claimed that what he spread remains embroiled in truth because of the larger pattern of migrant crimes. It’s not without a hint of irony that two of these actors, who helped create the fiasco that has made millions of Muslims insecure in the UK, are proud Muslims themselves.

In all these cases, there is a tendency to absolve the self from the heinous nature of what followed. One may call it denial, a kneejerk response to legal action, or just a general lack of introspection and personal accountability. But it is nonetheless reflective of our general attitudes towards consuming information on social media, where we believe first and analyse last.

It remains the quintessential approach that prevents us from taking any responsibility for believing and sharing false information. Yet each of these individuals, in their own way, played a crucial part in stoking the flames that led to the riots, and that is undeniable. Falsehoods, and their ability to instigate such horror, is no joke
The Corporate Power Brokers Behind AIPAC’s War on the Squad

An In These Times investigation reveals the individuals behind AIPAC’s election war chest: nearly 60% are CEOs and other top executives at the country’s largest corporations.




Branko Marcetic
June 3, 2024
Published in
June 2024

IN THESE TIMES

LONG READ 


On the eve of a high-profile Democratic primary in April, incumbent Rep. Summer Lee (D-Pa.) wasn’t giving a speech or knocking on doors.

She was at a Passover Seder.

The representative and members of her campaign team joined supporters and their families at a home in Pittsburgh’s historically Jewish Squirrel Hill neighborhood, the site of a deadly 2018 attack where 11 Jewish worshipers at the Tree of Life Congregation were murdered by a white supremacist.

At the Seder, as the U.S.-backed Israeli assault on Gaza raged in the background, Lee and her fellow peace activists reflected on the trying months since October 7, 2023. Organizers who criticized Israel’s brutal response to Hamas’ attack had been smeared as anti-Semitic and apologists for atrocities. Exhausted but optimistic, they spoke about creating a larger movement that would span race, class and age.

“It felt so palpable,” recalls Lauren Maunus, who was at the Seder. Maunus is the political director of IfNotNow, an American Jewish group opposed to Israel’s occupation of the West Bank and Gaza. ​“What we’re trying to build,” Maunus says, ​“we are building in real time.”

Lee tells In These Times that the Seder felt like ​“a reclaiming of our movement.”

“There had been such an attempt to drive us, our communities, away from each other,” Lee says, ​“using our pain, our traumas, our oppression.”

The following night, Lee stepped up to a lectern to address cheering supporters as the first-term congresswoman beat her primary opponent by more than 20 points, with the race called less than 90 minutes after polls closed.

“It’s a good night,” Lee told the crowd, adding: ​“Last time, two years ago, if you were here and you remember, it was a longer night.”

Lee’s victory two years prior was a nailbiter. She saw a 25-point lead evaporate as the United Democracy Project — a Super PAC created during the 2021-2022 election cycle by the powerful American Israel Public Affairs Committee (AIPAC) — poured $2.4 million into a deluge of attack ads in the final month. Lee squeaked out a win by just shy of 1,000 votes.

But the story of the two-year turnaround in Lee’s electoral fortunes is about more than one congresswoman’s career or one political contest. It is a tale about the intersection of the pro-Israel lobby and corporate, right-wing politics.

An In These Times analysis of the hundreds of people and organizations financing AIPAC’s push to elect conservative, pro-Israel Democrats shows the lobby’s electoral efforts are largely in line with the interests of Wall Street and other corporate actors — the same interests that have, for years, fought to maintain a status quo of free market fundamentalism.

Peace activists rally outside the New York offices of the American Israel Public Affairs Committee on February 22 to decry the lobby’s influence on U.S. politics.Selcuk Acar/Anadolu via Getty Images

It’s also a story about the progressive resistance to this onslaught of money poisoning American democracy, a pushback that may finally be weakening AIPAC’s influence.

By training its sights on left-wing members of Congress, AIPAC is setting up a battle not just over U.S. policy surrounding Israel and Palestine, but for the soul of the Democratic Party — and a progressive future.


A PARTY PROBLEM


Hardline supporters of the Israeli government were confident that the political fallout from October 7 would finally spell doom for the Squad, the group of diverse, Bernie Sanders-inspired left-wing members of Congress that includes Lee and fellow progressive Reps. Jamaal Bowman (D-N.Y.), Cori Bush (D-Mo.), Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez (D-N.Y.), Rashida Tlaib (D-Mich.), Ayanna Pressley (D-Mass.), Ilhan Omar (D-Minn.), Greg Casar (D-Texas) and Delia Ramirez (D-Ill.). Members of the Squad had come under fire after calling for a cease-fire in Gaza, suggesting U.S. military funding to Israel should be conditional, and voting against a House resolution that backed Israel and blamed the rising Palestinian death toll solely on Hamas.

“This is a scarlet letter that far-left candidates will have to wear,” Democratic strategist Jake Dilemani told Jewish Insider at the time.

Mark Mellman, another Democratic strategist and one of the founders of Democratic Majority for Israel — a Super PAC that, like AIPAC’s United Democracy Project, was created to boost pro-Israel primary challengers against left-wing congressmembers — believed ​“the savagery of Hamas has moved the center of gravity in a pro-Israel direction.”

After October 7, United Democracy Project (UDP) began running digital ads against Lee and Bowman, maligning them for their refusal to back the singularly pro-Israel House resolution.

Eliding the fact that Lee and other Squad members had vocally condemned the Hamas attack, one such ad read: ​“Fourteen hundred Israelis slaughtered by Hamas. Women raped. Babies beheaded. Over 200 hostages. But Summer Lee was one of just 10 votes in Congress against condemning Hamas’ terrorism.”

Before long, Slate reported that AIPAC was expected to spend the gargantuan sum of $100 million during the 2023-24 cycle to unseat high-profile Israel critics in Congress, including Lee and other members of the Squad.

AIPAC wading into elections was nothing new. The lobby has been a powerful and influential force in U.S. politics for many years — and, according to James Zogby, co-founder and president of the Arab American Institute, ​“AIPAC coordinated the PACs that existed prior to dark money.” In such cases, Zogby explains, ​“These 15 PACs will give to this guy, and these 20 to that guy, and by the way, each one of these PACs has someone on their board who’s on AIPAC’s board of advisors.”

But the sheer scale of AIPAC’s spending — enabled by Supreme Court decisions that have unleashed the distorting influence of big money in elections — and the tactics being used are more recent developments. These pro-Israel groups now directly intervene in Democratic primary races, flooding the airwaves with negative ads maligning progressives in the eyes of loyal Democratic voters.

Former Ohio state senator and Sanders campaign surrogate Nina Turner was among the first targets of this strategy during her 2021 run for Congress. Much like Lee, Turner was the overwhelming favorite for an open blue congressional seat in northeast Ohio but saw a massive early lead vanish under a nearly $2 million avalanche of negative advertising by Democratic Majority for Israel that painted her as a disloyal extremist.

The ads funded by the pro-Israel lobby ​“kind of say the same thing: Here’s these radicals … who are scary, who are not aligned with President Biden,” explains Usamah Andrabi, communications director for Justice Democrats, a left-wing electoral organization.

Sign up for our weekend newsletter
A weekly digest of our best coverageEmail Address
“They told me they didn’t recognize me anymore, that Palestinians have no rights [and] that if I didn’t ‘disavow’ the Squad, they were going to come at me with everything they had. And that is, in fact, what they did.”


Turner recalls a conversation with a former ally who does business in Cleveland: ​“They told me they didn’t recognize me anymore, that Palestinians have no rights [and] that if I didn’t ​‘disavow’ the Squad, they were going to come at me with everything they had. And that is, in fact, what they did.”

Since Turner lost that election, a spate of progressives have been ousted from their seats, including establishment-friendly politicians like former Democratic Reps. Donna Edwards in Maryland and Andy Levin in Michigan, whose sole offense appeared to be criticizing illegal Israeli settlements in the West Bank and supporting a two-state solution (both of which are stated positions of President Joe Biden and many mainstream Democrats).

Levin, who comes from one of the country’s most prominent political and Jewish families, lost his seat in 2022 after redistricting pitted him against another incumbent for the new, open seat. AIPAC put more than $4 million toward defeating him.

“We were buried by [that] avalanche,” Levin recalls.

Those backing Israel’s assault on Gaza now hope to deliver another bloody nose to the Left, in particular by defeating Bowman and Bush, the politically vulnerable duo that made up the Squad’s 2021 class and are also outspoken critics of the Israeli government. Bowman has referred to Israel as an ​“apartheid” state, while Bush has condemned what she calls ​“Israel’s ethnic cleansing campaign” and ​“atrocities against Palestinians.”

The most recent public polls (conducted by groups hostile to Squad members in March and February, respectively) show Bowman trailing his primary challenger George Latimer by 17 points, while Bush was trailing opponent Wesley Bell by 22 points. AIPAC’s PAC (a separate entity from UDP, its Super PAC) has already funneled $1.3 million to Latimer, in its largest total donation to any candidate this election cycle. The PAC also gave $555,000 to Bell.

In mid-May, UDP made its first expenditure on the Bowman-Latimer race in New York, spending $1.9 million to place ads charging that Bowman ​“has his own agenda” and ​“refuses to compromise, even with President Biden.” By the end of the month, that spending figure rose to nearly $8 million, the most the Super PAC has ever spent in a single race. At the same time, UDP poured roughly $240,000 into the Bush-Bell race in Missouri, a number that’s expected to grow significantly in the coming weeks.

Democratic operatives familiar with both races told The Intercept in May that AIPAC is forecast to spend more than $20 million against Bowman and Bush in each primary, including through negative ads funded by UDP. Neither AIPAC nor UDP responded to In These Times’ requests for comment.


Since fall 2022, some of those in the progressive wing of the Democratic Party have twice tried to ban Super PAC funding from primaries through a resolution to the Democratic National Committee. But the resolution was never even raised for debate, despite having 31 co-sponsors, including four state party chairs and two vice chairs. ​“When it comes down to it, they want the option to interfere in the primary elections if they feel that’s in the interest of the [party],” says former Nevada State Democratic Party Chair Judith Whitmer, who co-authored the resolution.

The impact of the party’s refusal to rein in outside spending has become apparent. As she competed for reelection this year, Lee apparently became a target of billionaire Jeff Yass, who put $800,000 into a group called Moderate PAC, which helped finance ads accusing Lee of ​“opposing President Biden” at a time when abortion rights and democracy are under threat from former President Donald Trump and Republicans in Congress.

The irony runs deep: Yass was not only reportedly invested in one of Trump’s companies, but he’s also a prolific funder of right-wing causes and the largest single campaign donor overall this cycle, with 99% of the more than $70 million he’s spent going to Republicans.


Protesters march near AIPAC headquarters in Washington D.C. in support of a free Palestine on March 13.Celal Gunes/Anadolu via Getty Images
“This may have been pioneered by AIPAC, but Big Pharma isn’t stupid, the tobacco industry isn’t stupid, the fossil fuel industry isn’t stupid. Why won’t they just say: ‘Great idea, AIPAC. Thank you very much. We will pick the nominee of both parties and that’ll be great for us to advance our interests.’”


“As a progressive and a Democrat, I don’t want to have Republicans coming in and picking nominees,” Levin says. ​“This may have been pioneered by AIPAC, but Big Pharma isn’t stupid, the tobacco industry isn’t stupid, the fossil fuel industry isn’t stupid. Why won’t they just say: ​‘Great idea, AIPAC. Thank you very much. We will pick the nominee of both parties and that’ll be great for us to advance our interests.’”

Or, as Bush recently explained to Politico, ​“AIPAC and their Republican mega donors are targeting Black and brown Democratic incumbents with the same right-wing playbook across the country.”

The data analyzed by In These Times shows these worries are not misplaced.


FIRE VS. THE SQUAD


An In These Times analysis found that the 528 individuals and corporations who gave to UDP between January 2023 and February 2024 are largely top-level executives from the finance and real estate industries, along with a smattering of billionaires and other members of the 1%. Nearly 60% of UDP donors are high-level executives, including CEOs and other corporate officers.

This dynamic is essentially flipped when it comes to those funding Squad members like Lee, Bowman and Bush, whose 2023-24 donor pool is made up of just 4% CEOs and other top executives, while 60% are non-executives.

The list of donors to UDP includes dozens of current or former AIPAC officials, indicating their passion to maintain unconditional U.S. support for Israel. But a deeper look into the backgrounds of those funding the Super PAC suggests that foreign policy isn’t their sole motivation.

“It’s not just their personal pro-Israel interests that they’re advancing,” says Charlie Blaettler, senior campaign strategist at the progressive Working Families Party, which has supported several electoral campaigns of Squad members. ​“A lot of folks are also advancing their own professional and business interests with these donations.”

Many of the donors to UDP are true blue Democrats — donors like the Hillary Clinton-superfan Haim Saban (whose company once produced the Power Rangers franchise) and former Blackstone Senior Managing Director Steve Zelin (who backed the 2020 presidential campaigns of Kamala Harris, Pete Buttigieg and Joe Biden).

But UDP’s single biggest donor is Jan Koum, the multibillionaire former CEO of WhatsApp and prolific Republican donor. He has also been a major funder of groups like Friends of Ir David and the Central Fund of Israel, which fund and support illegal Israeli settlements. Koum’s propensity for sharing pro-Trump and anti-immigration stories from outlets like Breitbart and Fox News made news in 2018.


Design by Rachel K Dooley
Nearly 60% of UDP donors are high-level executives, including CEOs and other corporate officers.


UDP’s heavy reliance on right-wing (even hard-right) oligarchs comes into stark relief when looking at its most elite donors. As of February, 43 individuals and corporations had given $200,000 or more each to UDP this cycle, accounting for $25.5 million, or 55% of total contributions. Of those, 26% are either primarily Republican donors or Trump donors (or both). Trump donors include the Kraft Group, helmed by billionaire Robert Kraft (the New England Patriots owner whose friendship with Trump goes back decades), as well as billionaire Bernie Marcus (the co-founder and former CEO of The Home Depot, who has promised to keep financing Trump’s presidential bid even if the Republican nominee ends up behind bars).

AIPAC itself has become increasingly aligned with far-right politicians. The lobby has notoriously endorsed hundreds of anti-abortion candidates and election deniers since 2021, including recent Republican gubernatorial nominee Mark Robinson in North Carolina, who has a long history of Holocaust denial and anti-Semitic comments.

“Big money interests are always on the hunt for elected officials that will do their bidding,” Turner explains. ​“Behind the curtain though, these groups could care less about the Democratic Party itself or the people who live in my district who need clean water, housing and jobs.”

Nearly half of UDP’s donors work in what’s collectively known as the FIRE sector — finance, insurance and real estate. WinnCompanies, for example, founded by Arthur Winn, is a member of the National Multifamily Housing Council, a powerful landlord and rental housing trade association. It was part of an industry coalition that lobbied Biden in June 2021 to end the pandemic-era eviction moratorium, a moratorium vocally backed by members of the Squad and successfully extended (albeit temporarily) thanks in large part to the efforts of Bush, who spent four days sleeping on the steps of Capitol Hill to pressure the White House to prolong the policy.

Squad members have also been highly critical of the private equity industry — a subset of the finance sector heavily represented among UDP donors — for, among other things, driving up housing costs.

Private equity was, along with a broad crosssection of Wall Street and corporate America, also a fierce opponent of Build Back Better, the $2.2 trillion social spending bill proposed by Biden and championed by Squad members and other progressives. At least a dozen UDP donors, including billionaire Paul Singer, are top executives at firms that are members or directors of the trade group American Investment Council, which fought Build Back Better to its death over the legislation’s tax increases on corporations and executives.

The failure of Build Back Better also came in large part because of the opposition of Sen. Kyrsten Sinema (then D-Ariz.), who ​“would do nothing at all on carried interest, so we’re just stuck on that,” according to one Democratic staffer complaining to Mother Jones. Sinema, long a magnet for finance sector cash, was also on the receiving end of the generosity of numerous UDP donors as she gummed up the works for what was supposed to be Biden’s signature piece of domestic legislation. One such donation, of $5,800, was sent to Sinema in September 2021 — the exact time she was actively working to block Build Back Better — from billionaire Trump donor Marc Rowan, whose firm Apollo Global Management is represented on the board of the American Investment Council.


Design by Rachel K Dooley


WIZARD OF OZ POWER


AIPAC’s recent big money onslaught isn’t just about defeating a handful of left-wing lawmakers; it appears to be in service of cultivating an aura of invincibility and enhancing AIPAC’s fearsome reputation as the one lobby you don’t dare cross on Capitol Hill.

“I’ve worked on campaigns where the candidate will say, ​‘I’d like to stay with you guys, but they’re threatening to spend this much money against me and I can’t do it, so I’m going to retract the statement that I made,’” Zogby says.

Geoff Simpson, campaigns director for Justice Democrats, says potential attacks and spending from AIPAC are ​“always one of the first things on candidates’ minds.”

“There’s been at least a dozen conversations with candidates or prospective candidates where AIPAC is one of the first things brought up,” Simpson adds.

Andrabi notes that, recently, the message from some members of Congress is that ​“what’s going on in Palestine is awful … I would call for a cease-fire, but I just can’t risk an AIPAC primary.”

It’s a reputation AIPAC works hard to broadcast, posting a nearly 100% success rate. On X (formerly Twitter) this April, AIPAC announced that all of its endorsements in Pennsylvania came out on top.

But AIPAC also makes strategic choices to maintain that reputation — which suggests the lobby isn’t quite so unbeatable.

As Andrabi explains: ​“They’re desperate to spend money in races, even if it doesn’t really matter or it’s not that effectual, and then claim victory immediately.”

Jewish Insider noted early in the campaign cycle that a ​“sizeable majority” of AIPAC’s list of House endorsees were running for seats that the Cook Political Report rated as far from competitive. In Pennsylvania, all but one of the 13 candidates AIPAC endorsed this cycle ran unopposed in their primaries, and Cook rated seven as uncompetitive in the general election, with only two rated as toss-ups.

Most tellingly, AIPAC only ensured its flawless record in Pennsylvania by eventually deciding not to contest the Lee race, despite having attempted to find a challenger to bankroll.

Lee’s opponent received neither the lobby’s endorsement nor the benefit of UDP’s outside spending. It was a curious move for an entity marshaling astronomical amounts to spend Israel critics out of existence, especially since Lee has accused Israel of carrying out ​“war crimes” and has backed cutting off military aid to the country.

“We know of four or five people AIPAC asked to run against Summer [Lee] in Pittsburgh who told them no, because they didn’t think that Summer was beatable,” Simpson says. The sum AIPAC was discussing putting toward the race, Simpson adds, was between $10 and $20 million.

“To be clear, AIPAC lost because they couldn’t win,” Lee says.

design by rachel k dooley


“To be clear, AIPAC lost because they couldn’t win,” Lee says.

A further examination of the electoral landscape reveals this race was just one of several high-profile failures for AIPAC this cycle so far.

In March, AIPAC fell flat on its face in an early test of its power to shape Democratic primaries after the establishment-friendly Dave Min prevailed in the Democratic primary for Rep. Katie Porter’s seat in Orange County, Calif. UDP ran $4.6 million worth of attack ads against Min, whose pro-Israel stance is tempered with only mild criticism. He won by six points anyway.

In Michigan, two people came forward in November 2023 alleging they had been offered $20 million to run against Squad member Rashida Tlaib. Both refused, even though Tlaib’s controversies since October 7 — including censure by the House for refusing to denounce the phrase ​“From the river to the sea” — should have made her an easy target, at least by AIPAC’s logic.

“I didn’t intend for a private phone call to turn public. But now that it has, here’s the truth. One of AIPAC’s biggest donors offered $20m if I dropped out of the U.S. Senate race to run against @RashidaTlaib. I said no. I won’t be bossed, bullied, or bought,” Hill Harper tweeted on November 22, 2023.

A spokesperson for AIPAC told Politico that they were not involved in the exchange with Harper. Five days later, Nasser Beydoun tweeted that he also ​“was offered $20 million to withdraw from the senatorial race and to run against my friend @rashidatlaib.”

The lobby appears to, at least so far, be staying away from the race.

Still, AIPAC has had a major impact when it chooses to spend. To the extent progressives have neutralized its influence, it’s been the result of deliberate, strategic efforts. Lee’s win, for instance, wasn’t just a matter of the politics around Israel changing at home; she was propelled into office as part of a progressive electoral wave that has reshaped Pittsburgh politics.

“It’s a situation where … if you’re going to run against Summer [Lee], you’re crossing Summer, but you’re also crossing Mayor Ed Gainey, the County Executive Sara Innamorato, and SEIU Healthcare, which has proven one of the biggest power players locally in Pittsburgh and across the state,” Simpson says.

And, he adds, Lee and her team have focused on continuing to provide effective constituent services while delivering money to her district. They boast, for example, of helping deliver $1 billion of federal money to western Pennsylvania for projects ranging from infrastructure repairs and affordable housing to clean energy manufacturing and lead removal.

“We help the constituents with their passports and their Social Security and Medicare,” says Wasi Mohamed, Lee’s chief of staff. ​“There’s a lot of this work that people don’t see.”

As a result, Lee blunted the emergence of a viable challenger while winning the endorsement of not just progressives but AIPAC-backed centrists — including Pennsylvania Sens. Bob Casey and John Fetterman, who has emerged as an unapologetic supporter of Israel’s devastating assault on Palestinians.

“They polled extensively in this district,” Lee says of AIPAC, ​“and last I heard, polls are not free, nor are they cheap.”

“It’s sort of like The Wizard of Oz,” Zogby says. “Pull back the curtain and what you see is a pretty sordid mess: a little guy at a computer grinding out hostile ads. They know that Israel is not a winning issue."


By contrast, Bowman and Bush entered the political scene by emulating insurgents like Alexandra Ocasio-Cortez and unseating longstanding congressional incumbents, leapfrogging the process of moving up through local and state levels. That left them without the level of local party support Lee earned. And, unlike Lee, the two most vulnerable Squad members have also been tagged with scandals that pre-dated October 7. Bowman has been harangued in the press over his congressional censure after setting off a fire alarm in the middle of a House session in September 2023 (allegedly to delay proceedings, an accusation he has denied), while Bush has been fending off attacks over the alleged misuse of campaign funds for security services (accusations she calls ​“simply false”).

According to Zogby, the threat of an AIPAC-funded challenge is intended to coax members of Congress away from the type of brazen progressive positions advocated by Bowman and Bush.

“It’s sort of like The Wizard of Oz,” Zogby says. ​“Pull back the curtain and what you see is a pretty sordid mess: a little guy at a computer grinding out hostile ads. They know that Israel is not a winning issue. … They want to hide their own fear and project the omnipotence and power — ​‘We can’t be bucked, we can’t be beat, so you ought to come on board.’ Unfortunately, all too many members do that.”

In early April, Bowman echoed this sentiment in a #ProtectTheSquad livestream event organized in part by Justice Democrats, saying that AIPAC and Democratic Majority for Israel cast a ​“paper-tiger Wizard of Oz power.” Determined, Bowman added: ​“We are gonna take down AIPAC this election cycle.”


Rep. Jamaal Bowman (D-N.Y.), who has called for a cease-fire in Gaza, speaks at a news conference with Rabbis for Ceasefire and other members of the Squad. The American Israel Public Affairs Committee is making efforts to unseat the incumbent.MANDEL NGAN/AFP via Getty Images


REJECT AIPAC


Far from wilting in the face of these attacks, progressives are trying something new. In March, a group of more than 20 progressive organizations — including IfNotNow, Jewish Voice for Peace Action, the Working Families Party and Justice Democrats — announced the formation of Reject AIPAC. The organization pledged to put forward a ​“seven-figure electoral defense campaign” to defend AIPAC’s targets in Congress and launch its own lobbying campaign to counterbalance AIPAC’s influence on Capitol Hill, pressuring Democrats to reject an AIPAC endorsement.

The coalition started coming together after AIPAC’s involvement in the 2022 election cycle. Over the following year, a core group of organizers researched, polled and discussed what the effort could look like, while bringing in more coalition members. The effort found new urgency in the aftermath of October 7 and AIPAC’s renewed focus on progressives.

“It’s taken months and months to get together,” says Andrabi. ​“What accelerated it most definitely was the Israeli military’s horrifying assault on the Palestinian people.”

Meanwhile, the Israel lobby’s post-October 7 escalation against the Left, coupled with the Biden administration’s stubborn support for Israel’s assault on Gaza, has had a galvanizing effect on grassroots support for progressives, particularly from Muslim and Arab Americans intent on proving that being pro-Palestinian isn’t a political liability. Muslim donors angry about the Democratic response to Gaza ​“have stepped up in a major, major way for our candidates,” Simpson says.

“There’s always been a Palestinian solidarity movement, but not one that is also looking on the electoral track,” says activist and author Linda Sarsour, who helped organize the Reject AIPAC coalition. ​“The Biden administration’s unequivocal support of Israel has forced Muslim Americans to think to themselves, ​‘We have money, we have voters in swing states — why do we not have any influence?’”

Sure enough, many in the Squad saw their quarterly fund-raising totals more than double in the period after the violence broke out in Gaza. Ilhan Omar, a favorite target of the Israel-at-all-costs camp, saw a nearly fourfold rise in her fundraising haul in the final quarter of 2023, while going into the primary, Lee also raised many times more than the amount she had before October. Tlaib’s nearly $3.7 million total that was raised between October 1, 2023, and December 31, 2023, made up 80% of what she raised for the entire cycle, despite the manufactured controversy swirling around her.

“Our No. 1 volunteers were people who said, ‘I’m knocking on a thousand doors because you stood up for justice when it was hard,’” Mohamed says. “That, to me, was the story of this whole election.”


And it wasn’t just fundraising; ground game support also surged. ​“Our No. 1 volunteers were people who said, ​‘I’m knocking on a thousand doors because you stood up for justice when it was hard,’” Mohamed says. ​“That, to me, was the story of this whole election.”

All Squad members, as well as Squad-affiliated progressive Maxwell Frost (D-Fla.), have vocally supported a ceasefire in Gaza since October. Another progressive freshman associated with the group, Rep. Becca Balint (D-Vt.), joined the call a month later. All were more recently part of the historic 37 Democrats to vote against sending $17 billion in weapons to Israel, and they also voted against the key rule-change cooked up by GOP leadership to get the bill passed through the House. The participation of Frost and Rep. Greg Casar (D-Texas) is especially notable: Both drew criticism two years ago for centrist positions on Israel that they apparently took to head off an AIPAC-funded challenge, and had declined to join Squad members in voting against the House’s pro-Israel resolution last October. (Reached for comment, Casar said, ​“So much has changed since 2022, but I’ve always tried to work toward the safety and freedom of Palestinians and Israelis alike with a focus on human rights.”)

“It’s the movements that they’re a part of,” says Sarsour. ​“These people are responding to the moment that we live in. They’re watching organizing happening all across the country, they’re watching mass mobilization.”

Indeed, critique of Israel and opposition to unconditional U.S. military support is quickly becoming more common within the Democratic Party, as much of the U.S. public has shifted its views to align more closely with the Squad.

Polls show majorities of Americans now support putting various conditions on U.S. military aid to Israel — only five years after Ocasio-Cortez was denounced for simply suggesting that cutting such aid ​“can be discussed.”



THE LONG GAME


Just as the targeting of progressives by UDP donors is about more than Israel, the progressive fightback is, too. ​“I was working for the Sunrise Movement during Andy Levin’s election and I saw these dynamics very clearly threatening the prospects of climate policy,” says Maunus. All the candidates Sunrise supported were under threat by AIPAC, he recalls, ​“because they’re also the candidates that understand the realities in Palestine [and] are criticizing Israel.” Maunus would become central to forming the Reject AIPAC coalition.

Lee notes that ​“AIPAC and its donors are blatant in their actual agenda, [which] is less Israel and Palestine, and more how to keep the Democratic Party from being a party that reflects the interests of marginalized people, of working-class people, of labor, of our environment and of those who are desperate for Medicare for All.”

This resistance to AIPAC’s onslaught and this fight, progressives warn, will last more than a single election cycle, and it will likely see defeats along the way. But its impact is already clear in AIPAC’s inability to unseat Lee and recruit a viable candidate to challenge Tlaib, among other ways.

Simpson says that sometime between six months and a year ago ​“people were writing that the whole Squad was in danger and were going to get wiped out, and now it’s really narrowed to Jamaal [Bowman] and Cori [Bush].” Reflecting on their power and strategy, Turner says the movement has ​“got to play the long game.” She emphasizes: ​“AIPAC has been doing this for decades.”



One part of that long game may look like an aspect of Lee’s campaign, when volunteers were knocking on doors this spring, days before Lee broke matzah at the Seder in Squirrel Hill. Door after door, Lee’s volunteers didn’t just speak to voters about her reelection but engaged in the kind of difficult conversations around the assault on Gaza that have been the source of such bitter division in U.S. society since October 7.

Those conversations did not include just Jewish voters, but Muslim and Arab American communities, along with progressives who feel abandoned by the Democratic Party but remain determined to transform it — in part by planting the seeds of a new coalition capable of beating back the big money interests that further corrode democracy each and every election cycle.

“We have to go and talk to some people who maybe are not inclined to naturally come to us, or have fallen off because of the use of certain issues as wedges against progressives and people of color,” Lee says. ​“Campaigns are not just a vehicle to win elections. They’re also vehicles to drive and create and sustain community.”


Research and fact-checking provided by Riley Roliff, Imani Sumbi, Andrew Ancheta, Eloise Goldsmith, Joshua Mei, Thomas Birmingham and Skyler Aikerson.