Friday, August 30, 2024

THE JETSONS GO JET SURFING

USCG Clears Regent’s Wing-in-Ground Craft for Full-Scale Human Testing

wing-in-ground glider — Regent received USCG approval for testing of a full-scale prototype with humans onboard (Regent)

The application of wing-in-ground technology is a step closer to reality as the U.S. Coast Guard approved the application from Regent, a manufacturer of the craft, to test its full-scale prototype including with humans on board. This comes just two years ago Regent successfully proved its WIG approach called a Seaglider using a quarter-scale prototype.

Regent promotes the Seaglider as a sustainable form of maritime mobility combining the speed of an aircraft with the convenience of a boat. It can be used for coastal transportation replacing regional aircraft and as a new form of ferry. The concept has drawn strong interest from airlines with Japan Airlines and Lockheed Martin among the investors. Mitsui O.S.K. Lines became an investor and Brittany Ferries is exploring using the craft for its service across the English Channel.

The first design is for an all-electric 12-passenger vessel that can travel at 180 mph. It would have a range of 180 miles on a single charge of its batteries. The company also looks to a larger 100-passenger version as battery technology advances.

Because WIG crafts operate skimming the water and within one wingspan of the surface, U.S. law treats them as maritime vessels. As such, the regulation is led by the U.S. Coast Guard with technical support from the Federal Aviation Administration.

“U.S. Coast Guard approval of REGENT’s Navigational Safety Risk Assessment marks a significant step in bringing us closer to seaglider prototype testing with humans on board,” said Ted Lester, VP, of Certification, Regent.

The company reports the USCG formally accepted its Navigation Safety Risk Assessment with no modifications. The assessment included a third-party risk analysis of navigational safety and a review of environmental concerns and economic impacts from testing. Regent says it consulted more than 20 local stakeholders, including the Rhode Island Department of Environmental Management, harbor masters, marine pilots, the U.S. Navy, the Federal Aviation Administration, sailing organizations, and environmental groups, to ensure their concerns were addressed.

After review at the sector, division, and national level, the U.S. Coast Guard issues its approval. The company believes this assessment and approval will also act as a model for future commercial seaglider approvals in other U.S. waterways and around the globe.

With the approval, Regent will proceed toward its full-scale prototype tests. They previously completed float, foil, and flight tests with the smaller prototype. They plan to start testing the full-scale version later this year with humans aboard. They are approved for Narragansett Bay and Rhode Island Sound. The first flight is planned for early next year.

Regent has previously said its target is to bring the first commercial model to market by mid-decade. The company reports over 600 orders valued at more than $9 billion from airline and ferry operators.

Panama Canal New Modifications to the Transit Reservation System Tariffs

[By: Panama Canal Authority]

In its ongoing commitment to providing efficient and reliable service to its customers, the Panama Canal Authority is implementing modifications to the Transit Reservation System tariffs as part of the Complementary Maritime Services Tariffs.

These adjustments introduce the new Long-Term Slot Allocation method (LoTSA), a new scheme designed to enhance our business model and service quality, offering certainty, predictability, and reliability.

The main objectives of these modifications to the Transit Reservation System tariffs are to improve service levels, better manage supply and demand, and optimize transit operations. The tariffs related to the new LoTSA scheme will take effect on September 1, 2024.

Additionally, as of January 1, 2025, adjustments to charges, changes in the tariff structure, and the introduction of new tariffs will be implemented.

The modifications were designed to create flexibility in swapping and substitution slots services. They also include charges to discourage last-minute cancellations and provide transit alternatives to vessels that have not secured a slot and have already arrived in Canal waters, with the aim of optimizing the waterway's capacity and minimizing waiting times.

These changes will provide a better experience and convenience for customers while ensuring the efficient use of Canal resources.

The tariffs can be consulted at: https://pancanal.com/en/oms

With these actions, the Canal reinforces its commitment to improve service levels and promoting sustainable practices in the maritime sector.

The products and services herein described in this press release are not endorsed by The Maritime Executive.

Japan Wants to Build the World's Largest Coast Guard Cutter

Japan mega-cutter — Courtesy Japan Coast Guard

The Japan Coast Guard wants to build the largest cutter in the world, a 30,000-tonne behemoth that would dwarf the China Coast Guard's monolithic CCG 5901, the current titleholder.

The Japan Coast Guard will include a $24 million line item in its next budget for the start of construction of a 200-meter mega-cutter. The vessel is intended to take on a much larger mission set than the typical coastal patrol ship, and would have many of the capabilities of a small-deck amphib.

The giant "maritime base" cutter would have room to accommodate up to 1,000 people in the wake of a natural disaster, deck space for three helicopters for emergency response operations, and arrangements for launching and recovering small craft. In the event of a mega-quake or a national defense situation, it would have substantial capacity to intervene. It would also be large enough to dominate confrontations with the China Coast Guard and with illegal fishing operators, but the Japan Coast Guard says that the vessel will not carry a deck cannon and will not be used in the Senkaku Islands, the area where the agency most frequently encounters Chinese forces.

The total cost of construction is projected to come to about $470 million, and work would begin as early as next year if funded. Delivery is scheduled for 2029.

If built, the Japan Coast Guard would have the largest cutter in the world by a wide margin, dwarfing the U.S. Coast Guard's Legend-class National Security Cutter, the Japan Coast Guard's Shikishima-class cutter and the China Coast Guard's Zhaotou-class series (known abroad as the "monster" cutters). However, if the new giant vessel lacks autocannons, it may not technically qualify for the list of "armed" cutters.

Hanwha Ocean Wins South Korea’s First U.S. Navy Maintenance Contract

South Korean shipyard Hanwha Ocean announced that it has won its first maintenance contract from the U.S. Navy as it looks to expand its role in the global naval market. Hanwha Group highlights that the former Daewoo Shipbuilding & Marine Engineering acquired in 2023 built destroyers and it looks to leverage this expertise into the worldwide maintenance and repair market which it values at $60 billion annually.

The first project will involve the overhaul and regular maintenance of an unspecified 40,000-ton U.S. Navy logistics support ship. Hanwha Ocean said it will involve work both in its dry dock at the plant in Geoje, South Korea, as well as onshore maintenance. No timing or value was announced for the project, but they are promoting it as the first domestic naval repair contract for a South Korean shipbuilder.

The win comes just a month after Hanwha Ocean received certification and entered into a Master Ship Repair Agreement for the U.S. Navy. The company highlighted that it was able to complete the certification process in just seven months and that it was now entitled to bid for maintenance, repair, and overhaul work for the next five years. Hanwha Ocean entered the program just weeks after its rival HD Hyundai also received certification.

The U.S. Navy has been awarding overseas maintenance contracts as part of the U.S.’s larger diplomatic efforts. India, for example, undertook its first repair project for a U.S. MSC vessel in 2022 and now three Indian shipyards are certified for maintenance projects.

Hanwha Ocean says this maintenance project is a pilot project for the U.S. Navy to further expand its maintenance and repair efforts in Asia. The company sets the value of the U.S. portion of the market at $15 billion annually.

The company reports the order was achieved with the active support of the Ministry of National Defense and the Defense Acquisition Program Administration. They said it is considered a result of close defense industry cooperation between Korea and the U.S.

Since the acquisition of DSME, Hanwha has been moving to expand its role in naval shipbuilding. The company earlier this year also agreed to acquire Philly Shipyard in the United States. Recently, management from Hanwha Ocean met with members of the U.S. Senate’s Armed Services Committee and the U.S. Ambassador to Korea to discuss the naval shipbuilding and maintenance opportunities. They discussed the pending issues and sought Senate support to expedite the approval process required to build ships at Philly Shipyard. The shipyard is currently undertaking work for the U.S. Maritime Administration and Matson and other commercial companies.

U.S. Navy Secretary Carlos Del Toro had visited the South Korean shipbuilders earlier this year. He has encouraged the companies to take a more active role in the U.S. shipbuilding sector and to make investments. He also recently visited with shipbuilders in Europe as part of his Maritime Statecraft initiative designed to bolster the sagging capabilities and capacity in the U.S. industry.

Shipbuilder HD Hyundai is Making Investments in Hydrogen Fuel Cells

Hyundai Korea shipbuilding — Hyundai is investing in hydrogen and fuel cells to lead future green shipbuilding (file photo)

Working to develop its long-term position in the shipping industry, HD Hyundai is stepping up its focus on hydrogen fuel cells and their potential both in industry and the maritime sector. The group is setting up a new division and reports it is acquiring a majority stake in a Finnish company that is a leader in the emerging technology.

The company says it believes that the global market outlook for hydrogen fuel cells and electrolysis technologies is “promising.” They believe the initial strong growth will come from stationary power generation markets followed by electrolysis and the marine fuel cell market.

Hydrogen fuel cells, so far, remain largely experimental but have some promising early applications for example with cruise ships. MSC Cruises, Viking, and Silversea Cruises are among those that have fitted experimental systems on their newbuild cruise ships while shipyards including Fincantieri report they are working toward large capacities. One of the early applications is to power cruise ships while they are alongside in ports as an alternative to shore power or where shore power is unavailable.

HD Korea Shipbuilding & Offshore Engineering announced several steps starting with a $100 million-plus commitment to establish a new business unit named HD Hydrogen. The company will provide the structure for the group as it aims to set up a complete value chain for the production, transportation, storage, and utilization of hydrogen.

The company also reported that it recently made a $81 million investment taking a majority stake in Convion, a Finnish company. Started in 2012, the company is a developer commercializing solid oxide fuel cell systems for distributed power generation in industrial and commercial applications.

Convion’s expertise and track record are seen as a key advantage. HD Hyundai points to the high level of difficult and lengthy timeline for developing SOFC and SOEC technologies. The company said in announcing its investment that Convion’s proven and proprietary system technology facilitates cell stack and fuel flexibility providing a scalable approach to meet industrial demand.

HD Hyundai also made an investment announced last year in an Estonian company, Elcogen, which produces core components and stacks for SOFC applications.

Convion will focus on technology development and marketing in Europe. HD Hydrogen plans to expand the global reach while HD KSOE will focus on the applications for shipping. The company says this is part of its larger focus on developing future energy sources which also includes sources such as small modular nuclear reactors. HD KSOE says it plans to become the front-runner in the future green shipbuilding industry.

Norway Sets Phased-in Dates for Zero Emission Shipping in Fjords

cruise ship in Norway fjord — Large cruise ships will have to operate with zero carbon emissions by 2032 to sail in Norway's World Heritage fjords (Flam port)

The Norwegian government has finalized the dates for its planned regulations to require zero-emission shipping at its World Heritage sites in the Norwegian fjords. The aggressive regulations are delaying the date for the largest cruise ships but are the next step in efforts that have also included a ban on heavy fuel oil in the Arctic.

The proposal for the requirement for zero emission shipping at the World Heritage locations, including five fjords, Naerøyfjorden, Aurlandsfjorden, Geirangerfjorden, Sunnylvsfjorden and Tafjorden, was first promoted in 2018. At the time, the government set 2026 as a target while admitting that the technology would still need to be developed.

The Storting (Norway’s Parliament) finalized the rules this week setting a phased-in schedule. Cruise ships and ferries under 10,000 gross tons will have to operate with zero emissions by January 1, 2026. For the large ships, the implementation is delayed until January 1, 2032.

Norway’s Climate and Environment Minster Andreas Bjelland Eriksen says the regulation will “both drive technology and contribute to the development of zero-emission solutions.” The Norwegian government has been taking an active role in support of the development of new technologies and alternative power including hydrogen and high-capacity batteries.

The phased-in approach and delay for the largest ships however is a recognition that “sufficient technology does not yet exist for the largest ships.” As part of the regulation, Norway will permit ships to use biogas to meet the emission requirement while operators such as Havila which runs coastal cruises are already testing batteries. In June 2022, the 15,800 gross ton Havila Castor set a new record operating for three hours entirely on batteries in Geirangerfjord.

As a second part of the requirement, Norway is also adopting rules for the use of shore power where it is available. The Storting decided that the state must ensure the establishment of onshore power in Flam, a popular destination for the ships at the innermost part of the Aurlandsfjord, a tributary of Norway's longest and deepest fjord, the Sognefjord. The government will contribute to the funding for establishing shore power at the port.

Starting in 2024, Norway ended an exemption for cargo ships traveling in the Arctic region from a 2022 ban on heavy fuels. They imposed the first penalties on the rules this summer. Although the purpose is to prevent the danger of oil spills in the sensitive region, the ban on carrying or using heavy fuels however also contributed to a reduction in emissions in the region.

This comes as Norway has experienced a surge in cruise ship calls. Like most destinations, after the pandemic, the number of cruise tourists has grown dramatically. The association Cruise Norway said the country topped six million cruise passengers in 2023 up by a third from 2022. They forecasted a further four percent growth in 2024 while noting the number of ship calls is also growing.

Mingyang Stands Up Record Setting Massive 20MW Offshore Wind Turbine

China’s wind energy companies are continuing their race to build the largest offshore wind turbines with Mingyang Smart Energy announcing today the installation of a massive 20MW turbine. The unit which is capable of operating at between 18 and 20 MW becomes according to the company “the world’s largest single-capacity offshore wind turbine.”

The new unit was successfully installed yesterday, August 28, in Hainan, China. It is one of China’s southernmost provinces on the South China Sea near Vietnam. Mingyang in the past has said its massive turbines were suited for high wind speeds and deep ocean placement.

The 20 MW unit features a modular, lightweight design. The rotor has a diameter of 260 to 292 meters (853 to 958 feet). At an average wind speed of approximately 18 mph, the turbine can generate 80 million kWh annually. Mingyang says it will offset 66,000 tons of CO2 emissions.

The size race continues to accelerate in the industry. Just three years ago, Vestas highlighted that it had installed what it called the tallest and most powerful offshore wind turbine, the V236-15 MW. Testing was underway on a unit that they highlighted would stand over 900 feet with a production output of 80 GWh/year.

In June of this year, competitor Dongfang Electric pushed the limits of the field completing the installation of its 18 MW semi-direct dive turbine also designed for deep sea offshore installations. The 18 MW turbine they reported covers a diameter of 853 feet (260 meters) and would be capable of producing 72 million kWh per year.

While taking the current title for the largest unit, Mingyang however is not done yet. Last October the company surprised the industry with the announcement that it was developing an even larger 22 MW turbine. The company reports it will have a diameter of over 1,000 feet and they expect to demonstrate the unit by 2025. Because China is prone to typhoons, the company said the blades would not only be strong and resilient and that the new 22 MW turbine is designed to operate at wind speeds of up to 19 to above 22 mph.

Mingyang points out it is possible to achieve these sizes due to the advancements in manufacturing and lightweight carbon fiber technology.

Equinor Retreats From Three Offshore Wind Markets

Equinor wind farm — An Equinor-operated wind farm in the UK North Sea (Equinor)

Norwegian state oil company Equinor has announced that it is retreating from key emerging markets in the global offshore wind sector. After closing its office in Vietnam, it is now canceling all offshore wind projects in Portugal and Spain.

Equinor cited high interest rates, inflation in equipment and construction costs, and delays in the offshore wind supply chain for its decision to exit Spain and Portugal. "It's getting more and more expensive, and we think things are going to take more time in quite a few markets around the world," renewables chief Paal Eitrheim told Reuters.

Eitrheim said that Equinor has not changed its overall green-energy targets, but that onshore renewables - solar and onshore wind - look more attractive from a cost standpoint at present. He hinted that Equinor may continue to pull out of other offshore wind geographies as well, depending on future developments.

The vast majority of Equinor's revenue comes from oil and gas, and it has other potential uses for its capital. Earlier this week, the firm announced a commitment to invest up to $6.7 billion per year in the Norwegian offshore oil sector through 2035.

Equinor announced its decision to pull out of Vietnam on August 23, citing cost, and it is closing its local office in Hanoi. In addition to the same inflation and cost-of-capital factors found elsewhere, regulatory delays and the local preference for state-owned enterprises are holding back development off the Vietnamese coast, even though Vietnam has favorable near-shore site options and strong wind conditions. Orsted, the market leader in global offshore wind, suspended its Vietnamese-market plans last year; Equinor's departure leaves the Southeast Asian country without any international partners for offshore wind projects.

BOEM Partners with Local Authorities to Explore Wind Power in Territories

offshore wind farm — BOEM has task forces working with the local authorities in Hawaii and Gaum (file photo)

The Bureau of Ocean Energy Management is continuing its long-term planning exploring opportunities for offshore wind energy including expanding it to U.S. territories. After opening the U.S. West Coast and Gulf Coast for the first lease auctions, BOEM’s long-term plan looks at territories in both the Atlantic and Pacific, with Gaum as one possibility along with expanding offshore wind power to Hawaii.

BOEM reports that it is continuing to conduct stakeholder engagements with the territories projecting that the first sales might come as soon as 2028. Last week, after an eight-year hiatus, the first meeting of the BOEM/Hawaii Intergovernmental Renewable Energy Task Force took place and the first meeting of the BOEM Guam Intergovernmental Renewable Energy Task Force is scheduled for September 11.

The purpose of the task forces is to serve as a forum to discuss issues and concerns. According to BOEM, the meetings exchange data and information about biological, cultural, and physical resources, ocean uses, and priorities. They facilitate dialogue and collaboration for opportunities.

Efforts are more advanced in Hawaii where a floating LiDAR study was conducted in 2022 east of the island of Oahu. BOEM reports it first received unsolicited indications of interest for offshore wind energy in Hawaii in 2016. That led to the formation of the task force and public scoping meetings.

In July 2024, the Hawaii Floating Offshore Wind Regional Ports Assessment was completed. The study analyzed the current and planned infrastructure of Hawaii ports to assess their ability to support the floating offshore wind industry and explored deployment scenarios to support the industry.

BOEM will be using a similar model in Guam where it reports it has had discussions with the local government. The first session of the task force will look to define issues. The task force has a goal of ensuring that the plans for offshore wind energy align with Guam’s sustainability goals and also to assist in identifying the most suitable areas for potential offshore wind leasing.

The Inflation Reduction Act of 2022 contained provisions that amended the Outer Continental Shelf Lands Act. According to BOEM, this allows for wind energy leasing to take place in the U.S. territories.

In addition to exploring the opportunities in the Pacific, BOEM reports it I also looking to potential opportunities in the Caribbean. The bureau reports preliminary discussions with the government of Puerto Rico. It has also had initial contact with the U.S. Virgin Islands.

NTSB: Sub-M Towboat Sank From Severe Hull Corrosion

The NTSB has concluded that severe corrosion caused the sinking of an aging towboat on the Mississippi in 2023, the latest in a series of casualty reports linked to poor material condition. Though the vessel's hull was badly corroded, a licensed third party organization had issued it a Subchapter M certificate of inspection about two years before the casualty.

The towboat Uncle Blue was built in 1964, and operated on the Lower Mississippi. On March 25, 2023, Uncle Blue was pushing an empty deck barge from Harvey, Louisiana to Baton Rouge. At about 0200 hours on the morning of the 26th, the vessel was operating near the Sunshine Bridge. The steersman made a round of the engine room and found nothing wrong. At about 0330, as the towboat neared Eightyone Mile Point, the captain noticed that the vessel was listing slightly to port. He attributed this to the arrangement of the barge tow with the push knees and took no further action.

After rounding the point, the Uncle Blue took on a starboard list. The crew loosened the face wires (securing the barge to the towboat), and the Uncle Blue rolled to port. At this point, the engine room's sole bilge alarm sounded and water flooded up over the back deck.

A crewmember checked the engine room and found flooding, and the master sounded the general alarm to rouse the crew. He radioed nearby traffic for help, and the good Samaritan towing vessel CSS Richmond responded. Richmond pushed Uncle Blue up against the right descending bank of the river, taking the towboat out of deeper water and limiting potential damage.

CSS Richmond provided salvage pumps so that Uncle Blue's crew could attempt to dewater their engine room. The effort was unsuccessful, and the crew abandoned ship onto their barge tow. Uncle Blue partially by the stern, coming to rest with her back deck and lower deckhouse immersed.

Temporary epoxy patch over the multiple wastage holes in the hull. A preexisting doubler plate is visible to the left of the patch (NTSB)

Salvors removed the towboat's fuel and raised the wreck with a crane. NTSB inspectors were at the scene, and they quickly noticed that water was pouring out of holes in the hull in way of the lazarette. The area was patched with multiple doubler plates. To keep the vessel temporarily afloat, salvors made temporary hull repairs with epoxy.

A post-accident inspection found multiple holes from corrosion on the lazarette's port side, along with doubler plates installed to combat similar corrosion issues nearby. "Given the vessel's age, the holes found in the hull, and the presence of doubler plates, the vessel's hull had not been adequately maintained," NTSB concluded. As there were no other identified sources of potential flooding, the investigators determined that the wasted steel hull plating was the source of the leakage.

Courtesy NTSB

Investigators also looked inside the Uncle Blue's void spaces and found that a series of pipe runs between the compartments had corroded or were completely missing (above). Without the pipes, the vessel had open communication between the void spaces and nothing to stop progressive flooding. Water entering the lazarette would have flooded through the voids and into the engine room. Since the lazarette and the aft end of the engine room did not have bilge alarms, the first alarm sounded when water reached the forward end of the engine room - leaving little time for the crew to address the hazard.

NTSB advised owners to take basic steps to ensure the integrity of aging hulls, to include proper cropping and fitting of replacement plates - not doubler plates, which concentrate stress in nearby areas and are not ideal for permanent repairs.

DNV: Efficiency Will Play the Biggest Role in Near-Term Decarbonization

While many shipowners have made headline-grabbing investments in green dual-fuel technology over the past year, the most important area of near-term progress in decarbonization is likely going to be vessel efficiency, according to DNV. The class society's latest forecast predicts a more gradual pace of change for emissions, and it acknowledges the reality that more than 90 percent of the world's fleet runs on bunker fuel - and likely will for years to come. In short, the green methanol "happy hour" is over.

"We accept that this transition will not be rapid, and the challenge must be met with pragmatism," said DNV Maritime CEO Knut Orbeck-Nilssen in a statement. "Energy-efficiency measures are essential to operating profitably into the 2030s and 2040s until cost and supply of carbon-neutral fuels become more feasible."

Efficiency measures can shave 4-16 percent of the industry's fuel consumption by 2030, according to DNV's calaculations. In the long term, these technical and operational changes would work equally well when running on alternative fuels, which will be more costly and harder to source in large quantities. (Shipping would need to consume as much as 100 percent of the world's total green-fuel supply in order to meet IMO targets in 2030, according to DNV's forecast, and there will be stiff competition from other industries for the same fuels.)

Onboard carbon capture is another possible alternative, and is already in use at a small scale. It will become even more important if the supply of green fuels remains limited, but it requires new port infrastructure for receiving and securely storing captured carbon. That will require new collaborative efforts between shipowners, ports and carbon capture developers, says Orbeck-Nilssen.

In every scenario DNV studied, the alternative fuel mix remained diverse, with no dominant industry-wide option. However, whichever fuel owners pick, one regulatory option seems clear: pooling of compliance. By pooling an entire fleet's emissions performance, owners can meet the regulatory standard by putting all of their green-fuel funding into one or two ships. The low-performing ships continue to emit as usual, but their carbon is counterbalanced by a handful of high-performing ships. This can be up to six percent less expensive than investing in incremental decarbonization on every individual vessel, according to DNV. Pooling is part of the FuelEU Maritime regulation, and may become a part of future IMO emissions rules as well.

In all scenarios, one prediction remains constant: decarbonization will be expensive. The switch to green fuel could double the cost of containerized freight by 2050, with potential implications for re-shoring and near-shoring.

Two More Crewmembers of Sunken Yacht Bayesian Are Under Investigation

A local prosecutor has added two more crewmembers to the list of investigative targets in connection with the sinking of the sailing yacht Bayesian, which went down in a sudden storm off Sicily last week with the loss of seven lives.

According to Italian media agencies, crewmembers Tim Eaton and Matthew Griffith are under investigation in the nascent inquiry, which could result in possible charges of manslaughter and negligent shipwreck. Griffith was on watch the night of the casualty, and Eaton was the vessel's engineer. The yacht's master, New Zealand citizen James Cutfield, 51, is also under investigation.

Under Italian law, suspects are notified that they are under investigation early in the process, and the announcement may or may not result in criminal prosecution depending upon the prosecutor's findings.

Cutfield initially cooperated with local investigators after the accident, but on Tuesday he opted to remain silent, his attorney told Italian media. It is possible that he may begin answering questions again later, after his defense counsel has had an opportunity to review the facts of the case.

Former captain details yacht's characteristics

Amidst ongoing speculaton about the cause of the sudden sinking, a former master of the Bayesian has released a statement with valuable details about the vessel's design and its survivability.

Much attention has been paid to Bayesian's retractable keel, which could be raised or lowered by about 20 feet. The design gave Bayesian the righting moment she needed to offset a massive single-masted schooner rig (the yacht featured the world's tallest aluminum mast) while providing a way to reduce the vessel's draft for access to smaller ports.

According to the former captain from 2015-20, Stephen Edwards, the retractable keel contained only 60 tonnes of the Bayesian's 200 tonnes of lead ballast, the rest being located in a fixed keel box. The vessel's stability booklet only required lowering the retractable keel when more than 60 nautical miles offshore, or when operating under sail, he said. Bayesian was anchored at the time of the casualty.

The Bayesian's shipbuilder has implied that the crew may have negligently left an exterior hatch open. However, Edwards was certain that the crew would not have left the yacht's single port-side shell hatch unclosed. Because the hatch was positioned so close to the waterline, it "was rarely used" and would only be opened in flat calm conditions. "100% it was not open at night," he wrote.

He detailed the yacht's likelier downflooding points - the ventilation ducts for the engine room and the accommodations. These would begin flooding the interior in a knockdown scenario exceeding 40-45 degrees of heel, unless vent dampers were closed. Lying at anchor with passengers aboard and the generators on, the vents would have been open.

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