Trump Has Lost $4 Billion as Truth Social Value Plummets

ByChristopher Gomez
September 10, 2024

Truth Social App Icon. Credits: Public Domain, via Wikimedia Commons

Trump has lost $4 billion as Truth Social’s parent company, Trump Media & Technology Group (DJT), has dropped 70 percent in value.

Since Trump Media was first available to be publicly traded in March, the share price has dropped from $66.22 to just $18.04 a share. According to CNN, Trump’s 57 percent majority stake in Trump media was valued at $6.2 billion in May and has since fallen to $2.1 billion. This loss in share value has dented Donald Trump’s net worth so severely he has been bumped out of Bloomberg’s 500 richest people list.

The value of Trump Media has mainly depended on Trump’s performance in the 2024 election cycle, which defies standard stock market logic. DJT’s value halved when President Biden dropped out of the race, and Vice President Kamala Harris took his place. Other events, such as the assassination attempt on Trump, Trump’s conviction in the Hush Money case, and debate performance, have all influenced Trump Media’s stock value.

“If this wasn’t Trump, this thing would be trading at $1,” Matthew Tuttle, CEO of Tuttle Management, told CNN. “This stock is entirely a Trump-gets-elected play. If Trump wins, this could be a viable company. But if he loses, I don’t know how this is a going concern,” he added.

According to CNN, despite its recent woes, Trump Media has about $300 million in cash and equivalents that it could use for anything it needs. It will also likely generate revenue from its new conservative-leaning streaming platform, Truth+.

Will Trump sell Trump Media shares?

A lockup provision preventing the former president from selling his shares will expire in nine days. Although Trump’s shares have lost $4 billion in value since May, he would still see a significant profit should he sell his $2.1 billion stake in Trump Media since he initially invested a few million to start the publicly traded company.

The only issue would be that current shareholders in DJT would stand to lose even more money than they already have should Trump sell his shares recklessly on September 19. Trump selling all his shares at once at random would drop the value of the shares astronomically, negatively affecting all shareholders in the company.

However, there are ways Trump can safely sell his Trump Media shares. He can use them as collateral for a loan or even sell all the shares to a single investor and announce it beforehand. While this will still hurt the company’s value, it will drastically reduce the potential damage a Trump share sale could cause.

Mike Stegemoller, a finance professor at Baylor University, told the New York Times, “It’s a supply-and-demand story: If you flood the market with shares, you are just not going to find enough buyers. You don’t want to shock the market. I don’t think he is dumb in that regard. His self-interest may work to the advantage of the shareholders.”

There is no indication of Trump’s intention to sell or to keep his shares, but losing $4 billion in share value could play a critical role in his final decision.

United States of Bitcoin

Crypto miners got kicked out of China. Now they're sucking America dry.

Anson Chan for BI

Taylor Dorrell

Sep 10, 2024

China used to be the crypto capital of the world. Thanks to the cheap energy and friendly regulations, mining companies flocked to set up shop in a country reluctantly playing host to the energy-intensive process of creating coins and validating transactions. In 2019, despite some regulation and a ban on initial coin offerings years prior, China's leader, Xi Jinping, called for widespread implementation of blockchain technology to support the country's quest for secure and reliable data systems, boosting blockchain research and further propelling China ahead of the US. At its peak, in 2021, the country accounted for almost 70% of global cryptocurrency mining.

But in May of that year, China changed course. Concerns about the use of cryptocurrencies for illegal activity resulted in an effective ban on crypto mining and transactions. Zongyuan Zoe Liu, a senior fellow at the Council on Foreign Relations, told me the ban stemmed from the risk that cryptocurrencies posed to China's financial system through activities like money laundering. This sent the industry spiraling.

Mining companies immediately fled the country, many moving to nearby Kazakhstan, where there was an abundance of coal power. Since minting bitcoins requires solving increasingly complex math problems, the hundreds of specialized machines used in the process — along with the equipment to cool them — take a massive amount of electricity. According to the Cambridge Bitcoin Electricity Consumption Index, Kazakhstan went from accounting for 7% of the global "hashrate" — the computational power required to make new bitcoins — in May 2021 to almost 20% just three months later. The influx of crypto miners began sucking up 7% of the country's generated energy, sending the price of fuel soaring and creating widespread power outages. After a massive public outcry at the end of 2021, mining companies in Kazakhstan were effectively cut off from the grid.
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So then they came to America. Today, the US makes up about 40% of the global hashrate — up from 17% during China's 2021 peak — making America the biggest hub for bitcoin mining. The country's 52 cryptocurrency-mining operations use about 2% of America's energy — enough to power the entire state of Utah or West Virginia. While it hasn't caused the kind of crisis that took place in Kazakhstan, the massive energy consumption has still prompted pushback from locals and heightened concerns about Chinese-owned operations moving in. And it's just the latest example of China kicking out burdensome industries only for them to end up on America's doorstep.

Among the major Chinese-owned crypto-mining companies that migrated to America was Bit Mining. In May 2021, the company had the largest data center and crypto-mining facility in the world, in China. By that September, after a brief stint in Kazakhstan, it was setting up shop in Akron, Ohio, in a building once owned by the tire giant Goodyear. Other bitcoin-mining companies settled in rural regions in the US with affordable electricity, favorable regulations, and ample warehouse space. But the noisy facilities, which typically employ only a few dozen people, haven't formed the rosiest relations with neighbors.

"The amount of energy these companies use is staggering," Jeremy Fisher, a senior strategy advisor with the Sierra Club's Environmental Law Program, told me. In Rockdale, Texas, for example, a Riot Platforms mining facility uses 450 megawatts of energy — the equivalent of what's needed to power roughly 300,000 homes. Electricity is also becoming an increasingly pressing issue in the climate crisis. Power outages nationwide have increased 64% since the early 2000s, and weather-related outages have increased 78%.

"At a moment when we need to be rapidly increasing the amount of renewable generation and shutting down fossil-fuel plants, proof-of-work cryptocurrency is pushing the wrong direction," Fisher said.
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Resistance to bitcoin mining has manifested largely at the local level. Frustrated locals in Murphy, North Carolina, Massillon, Ohio, and other places are signing petitions, forming coalitions, and creating YouTube channels to fight back against the mines in their towns. Gladys Anderson, who lives next to a mining facility in Bono, Arkansas, spoke about her experience at a town-council meeting for a proposed facility in Vilonia, Arkansas, last summer. "It's caused a lot of headaches," she said. Her son, who has autism, struggles to deal with the loud noise. "My son is currently in the backyard having a meltdown," she said.
At a moment when we need to be rapidly increasing the amount of renewable generation and shutting down fossil-fuel plants, proof-of-work cryptocurrency is pushing the wrong direction.

The Bit Mining facility in Akron has also faced pushback. "They're going to be using a lot of water, and electricity rates tend to go up for that sort of thing," Kelley Sayre, a resident there, said. A New York Times analysis found that the energy used by the Akron facility translated to 705,000 tons of CO2 emissions a year (roughly equal to the annual amount of emissions from two gas-fired power plants). Bit Mining didn't respond to a request for comment.


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How private equity firms gobbled up higher education


The mayor's office of Akron isn't excited about the mine, either. "The bitcoin mining industry as a whole runs counter to this administration's values and policy goals," Stephanie Marsh, the director of communications for the city of Akron, said in a statement. "Digital mining operations consume an exorbitant amount of electricity, employ very few individuals, and take up a considerable amount of space." Marsh told me the city would prefer the space to be occupied by a company that could provide hundreds of jobs and contribute to the local economy. It's not clear what benefits the city gets from the Bit Mining facility.

Countering local pushback is a powerful, ascendent new force: the bitcoin lobby. Tech companies and bitcoin investors are already having an impact on legislation in states like California, where, last September, Gov. Gavin Newsom vetoed a bill that would've established a licensing and regulatory framework for "digital financial assets." His veto came after the crypto industry spent over $400,000 on lobbying efforts. That influence has grown to a federal level, too. Bitcoin lobbyists spent more than $20 million to ensure that Congress would block federal oversight of cryptocurrencies by the Securities and Exchange Commission, which it did in May.

"Bitcoin stands for freedom, sovereignty, and independence from government coercion and control," former President Donald Trump told crypto enthusiasts at July's Bitcoin Conference in Nashville, reversing his previous opposition to the coin, which he called a scam during his presidency. To thunderous applause, Trump promised to fire the chair of the SEC and position America as the "crypto capital of the planet." In response, crypto investors and super PACs dumped millions into Trump's campaign.

In 2008, bitcoin's inventor, Satoshi Nakamoto, whose identity remains unknown, described the coin as "very attractive to the libertarian viewpoint." The supposed decentralized nature of the blockchain has attracted supporters who believe in free-market economics and techno-utopianism. Crypto enthusiasts dream of a world where financial institutions are replaced by decentralized cryptocurrencies, money that they say is inflation-proof.

However, in recent years, bitcoin mining has become increasingly concentrated in the hands of a small number of private companies. In 2021, the National Bureau of Economic Research found that 10% of miners controlled 90% of the bitcoin-mining capacity. "The concentration of currency holding, processing power, and programming skills in the hands of one group of people who are effectively partners in a venture defeats the entire purpose of employing a blockchain structure," the economist Saifedean Ammous wrote in his book "The Bitcoin Standard."


As it grows, the people who own this concentrated industry are becoming of particular interest to politicians concerned about the new Cold War with China.

At a packed City Council meeting in Massillon in March, many residents raised concerns about the proposed Bitdeer Inc. crypto-mining facility. The company owns mining facilities across the world and is listed on the Nasdaq; the proposed facility in Ohio would be made up of 30 buildings on 31 acres of land and employ 70 people. Cheyanne Diehl, a 29-year-old Massillon resident, said she wasn't just concerned about energy usage and noise but also had qualms with the company's country of origin. "Some of these questions you guys might not be able to answer, but I did want to know if there are any factors that might motivate a small American town to consider the construction of a bitcoin facility particularly when the facility's owner is a Chinese billionaire," she said. In April, Massillon's City Council ultimately voted 8-1 to move ahead with the facility in hopes of stimulating the economy. It's set to be constructed by next summer.
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Across the economy, China seems to always be one step ahead of America.

In Arkansas, the backlash was so severe that the state reversed course on its laws allowing crypto mining and passed regulations this year addressing noise reduction, proximity to residential areas, and foreign ownership.

The surge in cryptocurrency-mining operations owned by investors from China has prompted the Biden administration to keep a close eye on the industry. In May, President Joe Biden ordered a mining company that is majority-owned by Chinese investors to sell its facilities close to a nuclear-missile base in Wyoming, arguing it posed a security risk. A spokesperson for the Chinese Embassy in Washington, Liu Pengyu, claimed that this kind of "politicization" of free trade undermined "international confidence in the US market environment."

It's yet another touchstone amid the wider economic tension between the US and China. Across the economy, China seems to always be one step ahead of America. When China banned plastic imports, the US suddenly had to deal with its own plastic waste. When China ramped up making computer chips, America rushed to catch up. And when China put cheap electric vehicles on the market, the US quickly imposed heavy tariffs to avoid hurting the domestic EV market. Now, Chinese-owned mines are sucking the energy out of the US.

For Fisher of the Sierra Club, the solution is multifaceted. He said it's important to have transparency and ensure regular electricity ratepayers aren't subsidizing bitcoin-mining facilities. "Right now, it's profitable to mine cryptocurrency at electricity costs that put steel mills out of business," he said. "We might need to implement fees to ensure that the grid stays affordable for ratepayers and industries." His final recommendation is an ambitious one: a moratorium on new mining facilities.

Fisher isn't alone in calling for a pause on building new facilities. Harrison, Arkansas' City Council, for example, enforced a multimonth moratorium on a Green Digital facility after witnessing citywide opposition to the project. It ultimately greenlighted the project, but it showed that a city council was capable of enforcing a moratorium.

Given how much energy bitcoin mining consumes, it's worth questioning whether its presence in the US is really worth the trade-off. The bitcoin lobby's rosy vision for the future has so far been confined to the realm of utopianism and, if left unchecked, could accelerate a climate dystopia for us all.

Taylor Dorrell is a writer and photographer based in Columbus, Ohio.

About Discourse Stories
Through our Discourse journalism, Business Insider seeks to explore and illuminate the day’s most fascinating issues and ideas. Our writers provide thought-provoking perspectives, informed by analysis, reporting, and expertise. Read more Discourse stories here.

Japan resumes trial to extract nuclear fuel debris from Fukushima plant

Operation to retrieve less than 3 grams of nuclear fuel debris was halted last month

Riyaz ul Khaliq |10.09.2024 - 


ISTANBUL

Japan has resumed a trial operation to extract nuclear fuel debris from the crippled Fukushima nuclear power plant, for the first time since the 2011 earthquake and tsunami disaster.

The trial, which aims to extract a small amount of the highly radioactive material, was paused last month when the operator, Tokyo Electric Power Company Holdings or TEPCO, encountered problems during the retrieval process.

The operator had faced an issue in the installation of the robotic removal device -- a telescopic device equipped with a gripper tool.

After confirming that the devices are now correctly installed, the TEPCO “passed the device through an isolation valve, intended to block radioactive material, in the morning (of Tuesday),” the Tokyo-based Kyodo News reported.

The device extends up to 22 meters (72 feet) and the operator is aiming to collect less than 3 grams of debris which can take the device at least two weeks to reach its target.

There are estimated 880 tons of fuel debris remaining in the Nos. 1, 2, and 3 reactors of the crippled nuclear plant.

The Fukushima nuclear plant was damaged when a magnitude 9 earthquake, followed by a tsunami, struck Japan in 2011.

Last month also marked one year since Japan began releasing treated nuclear water from the Fukushima plant.

Robot begins mission to retrieve melted fuel from Fukushima nuclear plant

10 September 2024

Japan Nuclear Fukushima. Picture: PA

Highly radioactive fuel and other materials in the reactors melted when a massive earthquake and tsunami in 2011 damaged the plant’s cooling systems.

An extendable robot has begun a two-week mission to retrieve the first sample of melted fuel debris from inside one of three damaged reactors at Japan’s Fukushima Daiichi nuclear power plant.

Highly radioactive fuel and other materials in the reactors melted when a massive earthquake and tsunami in 2011 damaged the plant’s cooling systems.

The plant’s operator, Tokyo Electric Power Company Holdings (Tepco), has previously used small robots to examine the inside of the reactors, but this is the first time it will have collected a sample of the melted debris in what will mark the start of the most challenging part of the plant’s decades-long decommissioning.

The mission was initially scheduled to begin on August 22 but was suspended when workers noticed that five 5ft (1.5m) pipes to be used to push the robot into the reactor had been arranged in the wrong order, Tepco said.

The equipment was reassembled in the right order for Tuesday’s attempt, the company added.

Tepco executives observe officials making final checks for the robot’s mission at Fukjushima Daiichi nuclear power plant (Tokyo Electric Power Company Holdings/AP)

Once inside the reactor vessel, the robot is operated remotely from a safer location.

The robot, nicknamed “Telesco”, can extend up to about 72ft (22m), including the pipes pushing it from behind, to reach the melted fuel mound, where it will use tongs to collect a fragment weighing less than 0.1oz (3g). It is expected to take about two weeks to obtain the fragment.

An estimated 880 tons of fatally radioactive molten fuel remains in the three reactors.

Chief government spokesman Yoshimasa Hayashi noted that the mission marks the start of the most difficult phase of the Fukushima Daiichi clean-up.

“The government will firmly and responsibly tackle the decommissioning until the very end,” he said.

The government and Tepco have set a 30- to 40-year target for the clean-up, despite criticism that it is unrealistic.

No specific plans for the full removal of the melted fuel debris or its storage have been decided.

By Press Association

THEY NEED A YPJ FEMINIST REVOLUTION

Faceless, Voiceless Shadows: The Lives Of Women Under The Taliban In Afghanistan

With the Taliban’s return to power, Afghan women and girls’ lives have changed drastically, to the point that many are calling it a Gender Apartheid

Outlook Web Desk
Updated on: 10 September 2024

Afghan women learn how to embroid at a workshop sponsored by a Malaysian NGO called Mercy that seeks to help local females to empower themselves Photo: Getty Images

When the Taliban retook Afghanistan in 2021, Western powers had hope that the organisation would forgo their fundamental misogynist philosophy to be accepted as a legitimate government on the international stage. However, three years later, the Taliban enacted the “Law on the Promotion of Virtue and the Prevention of Vice (The Law)”, which imposes strict measures to restrict women’s lives.

Made Invisible In Their Own Country

The Law has caused widespread fear and condemnation from international bodies such as the United Nations, Amnesty International, and Human Rights Watch. Calling The Law “intolerable,” Spokesperson for the Office of the United Nations High Commissioner for Human Rights Ravina Shamdasani said it silences women’s voices and deprives them of their autonomy, “effectively attempting to render them into faceless, voiceless shadows.”

According to The Law, women in Afghanistan cannot go out in public unless their bodies are covered head-to-toe. The Law also prohibits women from speaking outside their homes, or being heard laughing or singing. Women cannot look any man who isn’t part of their family in the eyes. Further, women cannot leave their houses unless accompanied by a male relative. The Law makes it impossible for women to work in most industries.

In A First, Taliban Attends UN Meeting In Qatar, Demands Excluding Afghan Women Representation

These regulations, published in August 2024, echo the 1996 Taliban regime when women’s rights and movements were wholly denied. Many Afghan women’s rights activists and Amnesty International, along with other human rights bodies, are calling the Taliban’s treatment of women and girls Gender Apartheid. They are campaigning for Gender Apartheid to be criminalised under international law.

“We are joining the calls of courageous trailblazers, including women of Afghanistan, Iran and beyond, who have led the way in demanding recognition of gender apartheid in international law. States must heed this call. This form of institutionalised oppression must be named,” stated Agnès Callamard, Amnesty International’s Secretary General, in June 2024.
Sexual and Psychological Torture


Since the Taliban’s return to power in Afghanistan, the lives of women have drastically changed. Promises of a more moderate rule were quickly overshadowed by the enforcement of strict policies that have stripped women of their fundamental rights.

In July, The Guardian, in collaboration with Afghan women journalists who are working in secret, reviewed videos and then reported that the Taliban was using gangrape as a torture method for women’s rights activists in their prison.

In its submission to the UN Special Rapporteur this year, Azadi-e Zan, a network of volunteers that has been helping Afghan women’s rights defenders escape the Taliban since August 2021, reported that “five publicly known women who had been arrested for their women’s rights work and were detained or disappeared for many months.” The report added that while more women had been arrested, their families were under threat to not report it. “The security situation for these women and their families remains incredibly dire,” said the report.

Women Pay Price Under Taliban Rule In Afghanistan

The report also states that the Taliban has used “forced nudity, fondling, genital electrocution, rape, gang rape, and sham marriage.” The Taliban members also force women to watch other women being subjected to these acts. Further, the report adds that the Taliban “recorded them on video with the expectation of perpetuation of social shame and stigma.”

Azadi-e Zan’s report contains first-person accounts of women who have since escaped or whose stories have been collected. These include stories of beating, electrodes being attached to genitals, and more.

In August, The United Nations Assistance Mission in Afghanistan (UNAMA) expressed deep concern over the enactment of The Law by the Taliban.

The UN Special Rapporteur, barred by the Taliban from entering Afghan territory, met with Afghan men and women in Qatar last week to discuss the situation in the country.

Resilience Amid Oppression

Afghan women have shown remarkable resilience amid the oppression they are facing. Like Azadi-e Zan, underground networks have formed to help women and girls escape the Taliban-ruled country. Some reports say that girls are being educated by older women in secret.

 

THEY NEED A  FEMINIST REVOLUTION

‘Nothing Resembling An Adequate Response To The Crisis Of Afghan Women’: Heather Barr Of Human Rights Watch

The Taliban’s morality laws have severely constrained women’s fundamental human rights in Afghanistan. Heather Barr, Interim Deputy Women's Rights Director, Human Rights Watch, speaks to Outlook on what this means for women and girls in the country, and for the world

Avantika Mehta
Updated on: 10 September 2024

Life In Kabul On First Anniversary Of Taliban Takeover Photo: Getty Images
Q

How is HRW monitoring the situation in Afghanistan now?


A


In 2007- 2021, I lived in the country, in Kabul, when I first worked with the HRW. We were a team of two people; but now we have no one based in the country because it's not safe—we wouldn't be able to protect our staff or the people they interview. We also have seen that the United Nations (UN) is under an enormous amount of pressure, which makes it challenging for them to do their reporting although they still do reporting on human rights. We've just seen that the UN Rapporteur Richard Bennett was barred by the Taliban and we know that the media—both Afghan media and international media—have been under enormous pressure over the last three years, and the pressure keeps worsening.

Q

What sort of pressure are journalists, particularly female journalists, facing under the Taliban regime?
A


The Taliban has expelled a lot of international journalists from Afghanistan or blocked them from getting visas to return. I think it has disproportionately been women who report on women's rights and mostly journalists.

In the local media, Afghan journalists are under constant scrutiny and pressure and know that they have colleagues who have been arrested and tortured for covering topics that the Taliban didn't like or covering them in a way that the Taliban didn't like. This means that if you're an Afghan journalist, your options are that you work in a public way, but you have to be incredibly careful all the time that you end up really constrained in terms of what you can write. Or you operate secretly for an outlet that's based out of the country and that's obviously very dangerous. 

In terms of the gender of the journalists, there are still some female journalists who are working; but they are doing so under incredible constraints that really make it impossible for them to fully do the job of reporting. I think some media outlets still have women working for them, but those women, for example must work from home, and may not be able to go out and do most of the reporting. There are also women who are working secretly—you can see reports particularly in these two outlets called Rukhshana and Zan, but I can't even imagine what sort of care and precautions they must have to take, and the fear they live under. 


Q

The Guardian has recently published a report in collaboration with Rukhshana media, where they’ve confirmed with video evidence that the Taliban is using gang-rape as a torture method for women’s rights activists. How does the HRW view this?
A


It's incredibly disturbing and shocking. But, in a way, we shouldn't be shocked. One of the first thing the Taliban did was remove any structure that could provide any kind of accountability for human rights violations. They dismantled the Afghanistan Independent Human Rights Commission, the Ministry of Women's Affairs. There is nowhere left to go if you're being abused or your human rights are being violated. That means people who are in position of power—people who are running jails, running prisons, arresting people, detaining people—have total impunity. 

Q

There had been some talk from the UN and Western countries particularly, that the Taliban would be obliged to behave under international law if they wanted to be a recognised government on the global stage. How has that played out?
A



That the Taliban were somehow going to be different and were going to abide by international law and Afghanistan's international obligations, was a hope that diplomats had because it saved their face—particularly American diplomats who had signed up for the Doha Agreements. I think you'd be hard pressed to find Afghan women who ever believed that for a moment.

The reason Afghan women didn't believe it is that they knew from their personal experience, from their families' experience, how the Taliban had behaved from 1996 to 2001 when they were in power the first time.

Not just that, they also knew what life was like for women and girls in parts of the country that were controlled by the Taliban when the Doha agreements were being signed. Life in those parts of the country was pretty much the same as it had been in 1996 to 2001.

It was really ‘magical thinking’ to believe that a new, different Taliban had come that was going to yield to international pressure and abide by human rights conventions. That was always a myth, which Afghan women did not swallow. And, here we are now, three years later; now, no one can really deny that the Taliban are as abusive as they ever were. 


Heather Barr Photo: HRW website

Q

As a person watching the situation closely, and who has lived experience in the country, what do you think of the international community’s response to the crisis faced by Afghan women and girls at this point?
A


We still don't see anything resembling an adequate response to that crisis from the international community. We see States issuing statements. We saw the statement issued at the Security Council a few days ago, and some statements by individual states. These are valuable, but obviously they're not enough because they don't accomplish anything. 

We've been really trying to talk to States and the UN about the fact that it's time for concrete steps to hold the Taliban accountable for the fact that their abuses are crimes and violations of Afghanistan's obligations under international law, not just bad behaviour. 

Q

What sort of concrete steps can the international community take?
A


So, I'll talk about five concrete steps the international community could take:

The first is the International Criminal Court; which can bring charges for crimes including a crime that's called gender persecution. It's completely clear that Taliban leaders are engaging in the crime of gender persecution. Afghans have been waiting since 2006 for the ICC to act—that's how long international criminal court prosecutor has been looking into the situation in Afghanistan. That's too long. States who are members of the Rome statutes should be pushing ICC and saying: seriously, how much longer? When are you going to bring indictments? When are we going see arrest warrants for Taliban leaders? That would be an important step towards accountability.

The second measure is to approach the International Court of Justice. This court doesn't bring criminal charges, but States can bring cases against each other. One of the treaties under which States can bring a case against another is the Convention on the Elimination of All Forms of Discrimination Against Women (CEDAW).

There are 149 countries that could bring a case against the Taliban over its violations of (CEDAW); there are lawyers who have been looking for almost three years now for one or more States that would bring such a case and it's very frustrating that they haven't yet found one. 

The third is the massive campaign by Afghan women's rights defenders for gender apartheid to be recognised as a crime under international law. There's a unique and time-bound opportunity to do that because States at the General Assembly are in the middle of considering a new potential treaty on crimes against humanity, and apartheid is already included in that draft treaty. Adding gender would just be amending the language that's already in the treaty. 

The fourth thing I want to mention is that all the above suggestions—ICC, ICJ—are dependent on you having evidence of what's actually happening in the country, and it's become so difficult to capture that information. To be admissible in court as evidence, you have to gather information in very specific ways and there isn't anyone doing that right now in a systematic way. The Human Rights Council is convening again starting on September 9 in Geneva, and we've been asking, along with other human rights organisations (Afghan and international) for three and a half years now, for the UN to set up a new mechanism to collect and preserve evidence of crimes committed in Afghanistan.

This has been an ask for ours since the 2021 attack on the girls' school in Kabul happened. And, we will be making that ask again, this week in the human rights convention, and throughout the session, which is a month long (September 9 to October 11).

The fifth, is about refugees. 

We saw this burst of activity of helping Afghans, and helping people to flee right after the Taliban took over. But it feels like a lot of countries are behaving asif they did their bit and now it's over. That's not the case, at all.

As this crackdown continues, there is a steady flow of women and girls who are reaching the conclusion that they cannot live in Afghanistan, that their only option to stay alive and continue their lives is to flee. There has to be pathways for them to be able to flee and reach safety, to be able to resettle. We've seen a growing number of countries that have said that they will automatically consider Afghan women and girls as a category of people who are facing persecution for the purposes of asylum claims, and that's a good thing.

But it's not enough because women and girls can't easily escape. To get help to those who need to escape there, there needs to be help for those who have made it out of Afghanistan but have not made it further than Pakistan or Iran. We know that they can't resettle safely in Pakistan or Iran because there are mass deportations happening in both countries, as well as abuses against Afghans who are just trying to live their lives in those countries. There needs to be a response that is much stronger and more compassionate and more respectful of the 1951 Refugees Convention. 

Q

What do you see as India’s role in helping Afghanistan?
A


I've heard from lots of Afghan people who were students in India at the time of the takeover, who weren't able to get visas to come back to India so there's certainly more it can do. India has been a destination for a long time for Afghans who are looking for medical care, educational opportunities. I hope that people see that Afghans have enriched your society and contributed and so there's certainly room for India to be a place to receive lots of women and girls, particularly women and girls who are seeking education. 

I hope that India's government is welcoming of Afghans. For most countries, there's much more they could be doing and I'm sure that's the case for India too. 

Israel lobbies US Congress to get ICJ genocide case dropped – report

Tel Aviv is concerned about the repercussions of the case on the country’s economy and standing.



Reuters Archive

Turkiye and 12 other countries have joined South Africa’s case at the ICJ. / Photo: Reuters Archive

Israel is actively lobbying members of the US Congress to exert pressure on South Africa to withdraw its case against Israel from the International Court of Justice (ICJ), according to recent reports from Axios and Israeli media Walla.

Israel's foreign ministry has dispatched a classified cable instructing its diplomats in the US to engage with South African diplomats and US lawmakers, the reports say.

The document reportedly urges these US officials to emphasise that South Africa's continued pursuit of the genocide case could have severe repercussions, including potential trade sanctions.

"We are asking you to immediately work with lawmakers on the federal and state level, with governors and Jewish organisations to put pressure on South Africa to change its policy towards Israel and to make clear that continuing their current actions like supporting Hamas and pushing anti-Israeli moves in international courts will come with a heavy price," read the cable from Israel's foreign ministry to its embassy and consulates in the US.

Walla quoted Israeli officials as saying that they hoped the new government in South Africa that took office in May would take a different approach to Israel and the war on Gaza.

ICJ case

South Africa has until October 28 to present to the ICJ its reasons for continuing the case against Israel over its alleged violations of the Genocide Convention during the war on Gaza.

South Africa initiated the genocide case against Israel at the ICJ last December, accusing Tel Aviv of violating the 1948 Genocide Convention in its ongoing war on Gaza.

The Israeli military has killed at least 41,000 Palestinians, mostly women and children, in Gaza.

An ongoing blockade of the Palestinian enclave has led to severe shortages of food, clean water, and medicine, leaving much of the region in ruins.

Türkiye and 12 other countries have joined South Africa’s case at the ICJ.

The  ELDERS

Climate and Nature Crisis: Proposals for Action



10 September 2024

The science is clear. Unless we reverse greenhouse gas emissions and restore biodiversity, temperatures will rise and ecosystems will degrade to a point where large parts of the planet will become unliveable.

In our 2023-27 strategy, the Elders set out an ambition to contain the planetary emergency and protect the most vulnerable through revitalised global cooperation. We identify four outcomes necessary for success:Big emitters are held to account for policies that align with the 1.5˚ C limit and the global nature goal, and accelerate just transitions
Global solidarity mechanisms strengthen the resilience of those most vulnerable
Public and private finance is aligned with global climate and nature goals
The voices of women and youth leaders are heard and create the political space for more ambitious action.

In our paper, we outline what that means in practice. We explore nine themes that demand close attention and formulate a set of proposals for action to governments:Put justice at the heart of the climate and nature transition
Integrate climate action and the protection of nature
Revitalise global cooperation and the multilateral response to the climate and nature crisis
Champion policy-making based on science, in an era of rising disinformation
Commit to a rapid and just phase out of fossil fuels
Make polluters pay
Increase financial flows to support a just transition
Govern technology to benefit everyone
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‘Peringatan Darurat’: Youth-led protest against corruption and nepotism in Indonesia

 

‘Peringatan Darurat’: Youth-led protest against corruption and nepotism in Indonesia

Legislators tried to reverse court rulings related to election rules

Written byMong Palatino

Posted 10 September 2024 

Protesters outside Indonesia's House of Representatives. Screenshot from the video “Protests erupt in Java, Indonesia over election law changes | The World” from the ABC News (Australia) YouTube channel. Fair use.

Indonesian legislators withdrew two proposals related to regional election laws after thousands of mostly young protesters organized rallies in at least 16 cities across the country.

On August 20, the Constitutional Court issued two important rulings: First, it lowered the threshold for parties to nominate candidates, which would broaden the competition in the upcoming November regional election. Second, it clarified that local officials should be at least 30 years old during the time when they registered their candidacy.

On August 21, ruling coalition members in the House of Representatives announced their intent to pass amendments that would overturn the ruling of the court. Specifically, their proposal would restrict the number of parties which can nominate candidates, and the minimum age for eligible candidates will apply during their inauguration, and not during the registration. The proposal of legislators would bar Jokowi’s rivals from fielding candidates while allowing his 29-year-old son to run as deputy governor.

News of the planned amendments quickly stirred public outrage, especially among students and young activists. They accused outgoing president Joko Widodo (Jokowi), whose term will end in October, of orchestrating a last-minute attempt to boost his influence and control of local politics.

This is not the first time that rules were amended to accommodate Jokowi’s family. His eldest son was able to run as vice president in February 2024 after the minimum age for elected candidates was lowered from 40 to 35.

On August 22, massive protests erupted across the country. In the capital Jakarta, protesters stormed the entrance of the House of Representatives and faced-off with the police.

“We reject political dynasties and the erosion of democracy by a certain party,” said student activist Arga Luthfi in Yogyakarta, whose sentiment echoed the popular message of the protest.

Two hashtags trended during the protest: #KawalPutusanMK (protect the Constitutional Court ruling) and #PeringatanDarurat (emergency warning). The latter was posted on social media featuring a screen grab of the national emblem against a blue background symbolizing the urgency of the situation.

It is accompanied by a video clip announcing an emergency alarm: “Emergency warning to civilians against anomalous activities that have just been detected by the government of the unitary state of the Republic of Indonesia.”

Former Corruption Eradication Commission chairman Abraham Samad explained why the emergency icon resonated with many. “The country’s democracy is really in a state of emergency. We’re witnessing a constitutional robbery at the House.

The government responded by violently dispersing the protests with the police using batons and tear gas to block protesters. More than 300 were arrested, including minors, in the capital. At least 11 journalists were injured while covering the protests.

In an editorial, Tempo.Co news website condemned the use of violence against the peaceful protests.

The brutality by police officers when breaking up the demonstrations over the last two weeks shows the real face of the Joko Widodo administration. This is a government that appears not to care and has become accustomed to ignoring criticism that comes without mass support. On the other hand, when criticism is expressed in mass demonstrations, the government quickly responds to it.

Global human rights groups added that “the brutal crackdown on protests against Parliament's attempts to rig election laws shows a blatant disregard of the right to peaceful assembly.”

On August 23, legislators announced that they have decided to scrap the proposed amendments.

Research firm Tenggara Strategics wrote that the protest handed Jokowi his first major political defeat.

The episode shows that Jokowi is no longer as invincible as he has been before.

It also shows that the House, in which eight of the nine parties are members of his coalition government, is no longer fully under his control. Previously, whatever legislation he wanted, he got it.

Researchers Ika Ningtyas and Nuurrianti Jalli highlighted the significance of the online and youth-led protests.

Despite his purported popularity, Jokowi’s decade in office was characterised by declining civil liberties, the weakening of democratic institutions, human rights violations, and the use of laws and other legal tools to repress or block dissenters while raising his own kin into public office.

The “Peringatan Darurat” movement represents a significant moment in Indonesian politics, demonstrating the power of social media to rapidly mobilise mass protests amidst the public’s growing frustration with Jokowi’s attempts to consolidate power within his family.

Protests continued even after the withdrawal of the bills in Congress. On August 28, students protested outside the government guest house in Yogyakarta to denounce corruption and nepotism under the Jokowi administration.

 

RUSSIA SURROGATE

Hungary seeks foothold in Chad as West pulls out of restive Sahel

In an unprecedented move, the government now plans a 200-member military mission to train local forces and fight terrorism as part of efforts to stabilise Chad.

Tuesday 10/09/2024

Chad’s President Mahamat Idriss Deby Itno is welcomed by Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban at the prime ministers office in Budapest, on September 8, 2024. AFP

BUDAPEST

Hungary has bucked a trend by Western nations to withdraw from the Sahel region of Africa where Russia has increased its presence, and plans to deploy soldiers to Chad, whose leader Mahamat Idriss Deby Itno is in Budapest for talks.

Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban met Deby Itno over the weekend and further talks were under way on Monday, though no details have been released.

Chad is key for helping to stem irregular migration, according to Hungary’s nationalist premier, who aims to establish a partnership with the central African country.

One of the world’s poorest nations, it is also considered vital in the fight to stop the march of jihadists through the Sahel region.

Over the past year, Budapest has rapidly developed ties with N’Djamena, opening an humanitarian aid centre and diplomatic mission in the capital, as well as signing agreements on agriculture and education.

In an unprecedented move, the government now plans a 200-member military mission to train local forces and fight terrorism as part of efforts to stabilise Chad.

Hungary does not have a strong historical presence in Africa, but Orban has championed a foreign policy of opening up to the East and South, seeking closer ties with China, Russia and African countries.

Budapest has for years also sought a bigger military role in the Sahel to train its own defence forces, said Viktor Marsai, director of the Migration Research Institute.

Since the NATO-led ISAF mission in Afghanistan ended in 2021, there have been “no more operations where Hungarian soldiers could gain combat experience with a reasonable level of risk”, he told AFP.

Hungary announced it would join the French-led Takuba task force of EU special forces in Mali, but the anti-terror force ceased operations in 2022.

Its plans in neighbouring Niger were also thwarted by a coup in July last year.

A few months later, Hungarian lawmakers approved a new proposal to deploy 200 soldiers to Chad on a rotational basis.

According to Marsai, Hungary has traditionally been “part of military coalitions” when deployed abroad, but this time it would need to “provide everything by itself”.

The planned mission represents a “major leap” compared to past operations, Marsai said, adding it would serve as “a test, whether the army is up to the task”.

Landlocked Chad is the last Sahel country to host French soldiers after Paris was forced to pull out of Mali, Burkina Faso and Niger in recent years.

But sources told AFP in June that Paris was planning to cut back the number of its military personnel to around 300 in the country of 18 million inhabitants.

Several countries in the region have turned to Russia and its Wagner mercenary group for support since military leaders seized power in recent years.

Experts and opposition politicians in Hungary have voiced fears that Budapest, which remains close to the Kremlin, might act on Russia’s behalf in the Sahel.

Questioned about the mission, Hungary’s government denied that it “represents Russian or any other foreign interests in the Sahel”.

Despite its disagreements with Budapest, the European Union has “welcomed” Hungary’s initiative in Chad.

Amid the challenges the country faces domestically and in the region, “it is important for more international partners to work with Chad,” an EU spokesman told AFP.

But at home, the military mission has drawn criticism, with opposition parties branding the deployment “dangerous and wasteful”.

The Hungarian government has also faced nepotism accusations after French newspaper Le Monde and Hungarian investigative site Direkt36 reported that the premier’s only son Gaspar Orban had discreetly participated in official negotiations.

Budapest dismissed the criticism, pointing to Gaspar Orban’s “language skills” and expertise as a captain in the Hungarian army. He has since been appointed as a “liaison officer to help prepare the mission in Chad”.

A retired senior Hungarian army officer, who spoke on the condition of anonymity, expressed doubts about the mission, saying that 200 soldiers were unlikely to make a difference in such a large country.

Resetting US-China Economic Relations

Sep 10, 2024

BARRY EICHENGREEN

The implications of the deepening Sino-American rift are far-reaching, because several of the world’s most pressing economic problems can be solved only with contributions from both countries. And, to address global challenges, active cooperation between the two economic powers is indispensable.

SHANGHAI – The year 1979 was a pivotal one in Sino-American relations. On a historic visit to the United States, Deng Xiaoping, China’s paramount leader, met with President Jimmy Carter at the White House and attended the Round-Up Rodeo in Simonton, Texas, where he donned a ten-gallon hat and charmed the crowd. And, reflecting the rapid normalization of bilateral relations over the course of the decade, the two countries signed the US-China Science and Technology Agreement, which provided a framework for regulating technology, exchanging scientists, scholars, and students, and developing joint projects

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Now, 45 years later, that historic agreement has been allowed to lapse, a casualty of an American presidential-election year and heightened US-China tensions. And this breakdown comes on top of US tariffs on imports from China, prohibitions on exports of advanced technologies to the country, and, most recently, the addition of 42 Chinese firms to a trade restriction list for supplying the Russian military. Economic relations between the US and China have never been worse.

The implications are profound, because several of the world’s most pressing economic problems can be solved only with contributions from both countries. And, to address global challenges, active cooperation between the two economic powers is indispensable.

That said, there are at least a few faint glimmers of hope. US National Security Adviser Jake Sullivan’s trip to Beijing in August – the first by a national security adviser since 2016 – created the possibility of a constructive dialogue between President Joe Biden and President Xi Jinping. More consequentially, the next US administration may better appreciate the need for bilateral cooperation and take steps to rebuild it.

A starting point for rapprochement could be collaboration on the regulation of artificial intelligence. Absent such an agreement, a race to the bottom is inevitable, because both the US and China would shun regulations that risked leaving them behind in the development of this breakthrough technology. A rehabilitated US-China Science and Technology Agreement would be the obvious framework for negotiating an appropriate set of standards.

Second, there must be cooperation on the climate crisis, since only the largest countries, which are also the largest greenhouse-gas emitters, can lead the way. The Sunnylands Agreement negotiated late last year indicates awareness of this fact on both sides and suggests that there remains scope for the two countries to work together.

But progress also requires taking advantage of China’s prowess in manufacturing green products. By making its subsidies regime more transparent, China could reassure the US that it is not dumping solar panels, windmills, and electric vehicles onto world markets. The US could then be induced to remove the tariffs that make importing China’s green-technology products more expensive.

In fact, there is a bargain to be had on trade more generally. If China did more to boost domestic consumption of manufactured goods, the US would have less reason to worry about the bilateral trade imbalance and about China’s surplus vis-à-vis the rest of the world. Rebalancing the Chinese economy in this way could then prompt a reduction in bilateral tariffs and support efforts to revive the World Trade Organization.

China and the US will also have to work together to reduce low-income countries’ debt burden and help them to finance their green transitions. Similarly, they will have to agree on a regime to limit unhealthy competition in outer space. Their mutual interest in countering the production and trafficking of fentanyl and other narcotics is already obvious.

To be sure, there remain serious obstacles to cooperation: tensions over human rights, Taiwan, Ukraine, and China’s failure to help broker a truce in the Middle East. For its part, China is angry about US trade and technology policies.

The hope is that the US and China can compartmentalize areas where the two countries have irreconcilable differences and those where they can cooperate, as the economist Fred Bergsten has suggested. Whether this proves possible remains to be seen.

A future Kamala Harris administration will highlight China’s human-rights violations and privilege the complaints of American unions. And it seems unlikely that Trump in his second term would turn on a dime and embrace Xi in the manner he has embraced other strongmen, such as Vladimir Putin, Viktor Orbán, and Kim Jong-un.

This is not to say that US politics is the only obstacle to progress. Last week, on arriving in Shanghai for the Bund Summit, I was asked at the immigration booth whether I worked for the US government. To gain entry, I had to explain at some length that the State of California, for which I work at one remove, is not the federal government. The question – and the interrogation – did not leave me optimistic about the bilateral relationship. But who knows?

There are few certainties in world affairs. What we do know is that without much greater cooperation between the US and China, the world will be in dire straits.


BARRY EICHENGREEN
Writing for PS since 2003
Barry Eichengreen, Professor of Economics and Political Science at the University of California, Berkeley, is a former senior policy adviser at the International Monetary Fund. He is the author of many books, including In Defense of Public Debt (Oxford University Press, 2021).