Thursday, September 26, 2024

 

Unpacking working-class reaction


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AfD protest

First published at Rosa-Luxemburg-Stiftung.

The ascent of the far right has become a commanding fact of European political life in the past four decades. Since 1989, far-right parties have increased their median vote share by almost 20 percent, while the previous decade has seen them graduate into plausible contenders for government from Poland to France. The latter trend arguably began in Central Eastern Europe in the early 2010s with the election of Viktor Orbán in Hungary and Andrej Duda in Poland, quickly spreading to the Western half of the continent with upsets for far-right parties in Italy, France, the Netherlands, and Germany, among others. Although its ascent is by no means uniform, the momentum, at least for now, seems firmly on their side.

Currently arrayed across three different camps on the European level, perhaps most remarkable about these new far-right forces is their seeming ability to draw working-class support in a way historical fascist and reactionary parties could not. This fact raises difficult but vital questions for any left project in Europe, both now and in the future. How can the new proletarian swing to the right be understood, and more importantly, can it be reversed?

Marxism hardly is an analytical novice to this question. Stuck in American exile in 1941, the Marxist theorist Karl Korsch surveyed the successes of Hitler’s blitzkrieg on Crete and tried, heroically, to offer a class-conscious interpretation. The German offensive, he wrote in a letter to Bertolt Brecht, expressed “frustrated left-wing energy” and a displaced desire for workers’ control. Decades later, Alexander Kluge and Oskar Negt summarized Korsch’s position with reference to the historical background of the German battalions:

. . . in their civilian life, the majority of the tank crews of the German divisions were car mechanics or engineers (that is, industrial workers with practical experience). Many of them came from the German provinces that had experienced bloody massacres at the hands of the authorities in the Peasant Wars (1524–1526). According to Korsch, they had good reason to avoid direct contact with their superiors. Almost all of them could also vividly remember the positional warfare of 1916, again a result of the actions of their superiors, in whom they had little faith thereafter . . . According to Korsch, it thereby became possible for the troops to invent for themselves the blitzkrieg spontaneously, out of historical motives at hand.

Although analytically far-fetched, it is tempting — and consoling — to view the ascendance of Europe’s extreme right through a similar lens. Both new and old provinces conquered — Thuringia, Billancourt, East Flanders, or the suburbs of Vienna — were labour movement strongholds in the twentieth century. There, the old demand for workers’ control seems to have been diverted into xenophobic passion, a longing to overthrow the bourgeois regime replaced by an attempt to smash its weakest subjects. One wants to believe, as did Korsch, that behind the mask of reaction there is still some potentially emancipatory profile, that a left-wing edifice can be rebuilt on the ruins.

Switching sides?

A sizeable body of social-scientific literature built up since the early 1990s, when the European far right achieved its first breakthroughs on the continent, also seems to sanction such a Korschian reading. Together with a growing literature on populism, a “switching thesis” implied that, with the onset of a new, post-industrial society, the European working classes steadily left their abode in Communist and social-democratic parties and migrated to the opposite end of the political spectrum. As Korsch would put it, they deposited their “left-wing energy” elsewhere, in a felicitous convergence of extremes which liberal writers had already detected in the totalitarianisms of the twentieth century.

The thesis continued to haunt political discourse throughout the long 1990s and, with the far right increasingly taking on a social and even anti-European slant, attained a plausibility far beyond the confines of the academe alone. It even led some figures to dub new far-right outfits from the Front National to Jörg Haider’s Freedom Party (FPÖ) workers’ parties, or assign them the title “populist” — still a relatively new addition to the social science vocabulary in the early 1990s.

Its limits were clear to see. Even if it captured some of the rhetorical features of the new far right, which had traded an emphasis on racial identity for cultural specificity, the term all too often allowed them to suppress tainted associations with a post-fascist tradition, and often turned them into freshly appointed stewards for a working class abandoned by its left-wing representatives. At the same time, the term “populist” undoubtedly owed its attraction to the novelty of some of these parties. With no clear military wings and not populated by frustrated veterans, they were hard to compare to their fascist progenitors. Their popularity was driven by the structural decline of party power across Europe, in which voters abandoned their traditional party outfits and joined a newly virtual and undetermined “people”, easily seduced by forces further on the right of the spectrum.

The switching thesis was always more than an analytical device, however. Steadily, it mutated into a fully-fledged political programme, in which left-wing parties were asked to either adjust to and learn from far-right parties, or scout for a new popular base, situated in a new middle class or an increasingly diverse service-sector proletariat. Since their old electorate had left, a new one had to be found. With terms such as “gaucho-lepenisme” or a “red-brown” politics, this literature thereby not only supported a populist interpretation of the new far right; it also beckoned the Left to move rightwards, following the lead of its own ex-electorate and apostles of concern in the commentariat.

Today, the consequence of this switching politics is become even clearer, as establishment conservatives use the notion as an alibi to move further rightwards, while parts of the Left either seek to regain a lost working-class electorate by copying tactics further on the right, or let go of its peripheral constituency altogether.

Yet there was no shortage of critiques of this switching thesis by the early 1990s. They noted that many of the regions now counted as new right strongholds saw higher rates of abstention than others. They insisted that voters who left workers’ parties did so out of a disappointment with the market transitions of the 1990s and 2000s — only faintly captured by the notion of “globalization” — and not out of an ineradicable hatred of foreigners. Critics also insisted that the ties these new voters held with the far right were hardly comparable to the integral social worlds previously offered to them by parties on the Left. The online chat group was not the casa del popolo, and, most importantly, the far right’s social programme lacked any ambition to tackle the growing power of capital.

The result was a twenty-first-century version of the “ecological fallacy” in fascism scholarship: the idea that working-class regions voted fascist in fact obscured the reality that the middle classes in those regions voted fascist, not the working classes themselves, who were always an envious absence from fascist party rolls. Rather than a working-class shift to the right, many exurban workers simply dropped out of politics altogether. Although sections of their class and the new petty bourgeoisie did make a move to the far right — partly out of fear of labour market competition, partly out of xenophobia — they did so hardly as a collective, class-conscious entity.

Fascization without mobilization

The last years have only increased the attractiveness of the switching thesis. In former East Germany, France, Belgium, the United Kingdom, and the Netherlands, the existence of a growing working-class vote no longer reducible to abstentionism seems undeniable. The interpretative war around this vote has been equally strident. Many insist that the rise of the far right should not be understood as wrongly sublimated left-wing libido, as Korsch had it, but as an expression of late-capitalist rot — not an insurgency to be redirected, but an impulse to be quashed.

The essentials of much of this diagnosis are often inarguable: that the class composition of the new far-right voter is not homogenously proletarian, that they are often not responding to events representing any concrete “immigrant threat”, that their actions were incited by both the political class and a growing army of far-right social media entrepreneurs, and that Europe’s rightward lurch owes more to feverish media speculation than to the authentic grievances of the dispossessed. Rather than “concerned citizens”, this critique claims, the base of the new far right consists of revanchist lumpen and middle classes unable to cope with the fact of social change in the twenty-first century. A literature on “neo-fascism” or “late fascism”, represented by authors such as Alberto Toscano and Enzo Traverso, has sought to place the revenge fantasies of the contemporary far-right in this frame, showing how new settings summon old ghosts.

Yet while the word “populist” proves of highly limited use when understanding the new right, the term “fascist” will undoubtedly prove equally constraining. In terms of the favoured ideologemes — from Great Replacement to other ethnonationalist fantasms — the continuity with the twentieth century is hard to deny. In politics as in biology, environment often proves as important as heredity, as the historian Christopher Hill once noted, and contemporary fascists must contend with parameters incomparable to those of their ancestors. These include demilitarization and the absence of a pre-revolutionary threat from the Left. As Dylan Riley has noted, the peculiarity and the specificity of the contemporary far right becomes clear when contrasted with the fact that, traditionally, fascists never were able to retain any solid working-class support — a point of incessant frustration to many far-right cadres.

Europe’s fascists, for one, rose to power in a period of intense social confrontation: Hitler and Mussolini both prevailed after workers’ movements tried to instigate revolutions, and were seen by elites as their best chance to stabilize the social order and re-establish labour discipline. A muscular proletariat is conspicuously absent from the European scene today, fatally weakened by deindustrialization and loose labour markets. In contrast to the 1930s, when fascist street violence flourished, the contemporary far right thrives on demobilization, both electorally and non-electorally.

For instance: Meloni’s party won a majority of votes in an election in which nearly four out of ten Italians stayed home, with turnout down by almost 10 percent. In France, Le Pen’s National Rally has long received its best tallies in parts of the country with the highest voter abstention rates. In Poland, the Kaczynski family behind the Law and Justice party ruled over a country where fewer than 1 percent of citizens are members of a political party.

These are not mass affairs, but rather exercises in orchestrated passivity that hardly tolerate comparisons with twentieth-century mass parties. As David Broder has noted for the Italian case, while “the latest advance for a far-right party in the land of Fascism’s birth surely lends itself to evocative analogies”, this “does not mean that Mussolini’s heirs merely repeat the past in the present, or even that the fascist elements of their culture are always drawn from interwar Italy.”

The data indicate the deeply contemporary character of the Europe’s extreme right surge — the outgrowths of a newly networked radicalism, not a return to Freikorps militancy or Boulangist militarism that seeks catch-up colonies in the east. Hitler and Mussolini promised to forge colonial empires of the kind their French and British competitors had acquired long ago. Their ambition was to break down borders, not to reinforce them. Today’s far right, by contrast, seeks to shield the Old World from the rest of the globe, conceding that the continent will no longer be a protagonist in the twenty-first century, and that the best it can hope for is protection from the postcolonial hordes.

Where does this leave us for an anatomy? As mentioned, both the copycats and the deniers — one seeking to emulate far-right success in working-class sectors, the other abandoning the terrain — face the same problem. The switching thesis has some empirical support, yet it proportionally includes more normative commitment than sober scientific analysis. In terms of support for the Alternative für Deutschland (AfD) or even the Western extreme-right vote in general, what is far more striking is its dependence on demobilization rather than remobilization: most working-class voters drop out of politics while some of them migrate to the extreme right, and this small set of defectors is then made to stand in for the entirety of the demobilized class.

Demobilization thus gets mistaken for remobilization — working-class voters are experimenting with new parties, but the main response is a mixture of apathy and retreat, not rebellious defection. Even those voters who migrate to the Right, thereby feeding the optical illusion of a general switch, usually have much weaker ties with those new extreme-right parties than they used to have with their previous left-wing outfits (a pattern clearly visible in the North of France, where Le Pen has taken former Communist strongholds, and in eastern Germany). There, the vote for the extreme right is a secretive, private, individual affair, not an explicit engagement — more passive-aggressive than active, more informal than formal.

Didier Eribon noted in his memoir of his ex-Communist parents, his father’s migration to the extreme right also had to be expressed in a different register from the Communist lifestyle he had adhered to before. “Unlike voting communist, a way of voting that could be assumed forthrightly and asserted publicly”, his father’s new vote “seems to have been something that needed to be kept secret, even denied in the face of some ‘outside’ instance of judgment.” In contrast to the Communist Party, in “voting for the National Front, individuals remain individuals and the opinion they produce is simply the sum of their spontaneous prejudices”, an act carried out in the enclosure of the ballot box.

Dimensions of reaction

Two poles inherent in the switching thesis can therefore be avoided: presenting the new far right as a supposedly authentic expression of working-class grievances, abandoned by an overly progressive Left, or depicting it as an exclusively middle-class and elite outfit which only simulates its proletarian base. Similarly, a middle way between economism and culturalism stops short from reducing the far-right surge to a proletarian rebellion or claiming that its voters somehow hallucinate the fact of socio-economic decline.

Conversely, Europe’s extreme-right surge is thus no twisted expression of “material interests”, but this should not lead us into a form of superstructuralism that represses the economic roots of the current crisis. While a Korschian outlook can lapse into lazy apologism, there is also a species of anti-economism that risks obscuring the social terrain and thereby relinquishing the prospect of changing it. To understand the flammable environment at which Europe’s pyromaniac far right has taken aim, we need less mass psychology and more political economy. Here, the new right is, at its core, an attempt to rhetorically manage and contain the contradiction at the heart of European financialization: an economy dependent on cheap labour for its meagre growth rates, unable to deliver meaningful productivity, with a population that increasingly wants the state to mount some kind of systemic intervention.

One particular factor of neglect is how economic factors underpin the peculiarly schizoid status of immigration in European public life. A cheap supply of labour remained essential in the wake of partial deindustrialization in the 1990s and 1980s, as demographic expansion became necessary to sustain the rising service sector and help European industry retain competitiveness on an increasingly hostile world market. Despite all its rhetorical bombast, conservative parties have done little to alter these fragile growth models in the last decades. For instance: the British Conservative Party did not reduce immigration figures over the last decade, nor articulate even the mildest equivalent of Bidenist “reshoring”, while its base has increasingly been swept up in anger.

Popular dissatisfaction has meanwhile been rising since at least the late 2000s, with a creeping sense in the lower ends of the labour market that even if immigration does not cause low wages, it remains an indispensable part of the low-wage regime to which the British policy elite is committed. What we have witnessed in recent years is the explosion of that discontent, in Britain and elsewhere, in the “hyperpolitical” form that dominates the 2020s: agitation without durable organization, short-lived spontaneism without institutional fortress-building. With a new flock of influencers on the far right, these “trigger points”, as Steffen Mau and his researchers call them, can easily get charged.

There is an inevitably international dimension to the current rise of domestic xenophobia, as well. Is it surprising that nations that style themselves as attack dogs for a declining imperial hegemon, and unconditionally support an ongoing genocide in the Middle East, would see such belligerence ricochet back onto the home front? Both the UK and Germany, having normalized and repeatedly defended the ongoing war crimes in Palestine, have given a strong impetus to those wishing to enact anti-Muslim violence here at home.

Unlike the dominant varieties of antisemitism, anti-Islamic sentiment does not usually engage in projections of global omnipotence. It casts the Muslim as a dangerously ambiguous figure. In the zero-sum world of late capitalism, their ability to retain a minimum of communal cohesion is seen to have better equipped them for labour market competition. Rather than a fear of the other, anti-Muslim feeling is a fear of the same: someone in a position of equal dependence on the market, yet who is thought to be more effective in shielding themselves against its onslaught. At the same time, the Muslim is also seen as a subaltern agent of the abstraction which finance has inflicted on the worlds of post-war stability: someone who is out of place, who is causing “borders and boundaries to erode”, as Richard Seymour puts it.


Breaking through

In 1913, Lenin controversially claimed that behind the Black Hundreds, the reactionary monarchist force which first gave the world the notion of “pogromism”, one could detect an “ignorant peasant democracy, democracy of the crudest type but also extremely deep-seated”. In his view, Russian landowners had tried to “appeal to the most deep-rooted prejudices of the most backward peasant” and “play on his ignorance”. Yet “such a game cannot be played without risk”, he qualified, and “now and again the voice of the real peasant life, peasant democracy, breaks through all the Black-Hundred mustiness and cliché”.

There is no repressed emancipatory core to Europe’s extreme right surge, no “energy” which can be recuperated. In this sense, the kind of desperate hope that Korsch read into the blitzkrieg should be abjured. But underneath the rise of the continental right still lies a universe of misery which it is the Left’s historic task to negate — and sometimes, as Lenin noted, the voice of the post-industrial peasant breaks through all the “mustiness and cliché”.

More dangerously, successful strategies for doing so are in short supply and often more palliative than oppositional. A-to-B marches, the kind that are now taking place in many European cities every month, can be a useful way to assert a political line and remain a minimum requirement of any politics that would stop the far right. But they are inadequate to occupy the deep social void being seized upon by Europe’s new far right.

Anton Jäger is a Belgian historian of political thought who teaches politics at Oxford.



The far right: A reactionary backlash

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First published in Spanish at Revista Contexto. Translation from Transform Network.

I’ve been reading analyses of the far right for years, without finding one that really offered the key to understanding why these forces have so much support. That was until the last few months, when I read a study in the Financial Times, an old feminist book, and a journal article by two historians. Together, they prompted me to think about the answer that — in a nutshell — I intend to set out here.

The rise of the far right is not an expression of political discontent, nor a social pathology, nor still less an expression of anti-systemic feeling. The growth of the far right in the last decade is a backlash — and, moreover, a global backlash. But a backlash against what? Against a shifting of the terrain.

History has changed

Some academic historians have argued that the most profound change resulting from the acceleration of globalisation is the transformation of the concept of History itself — and that this has much to do with the rise of the far right. I am greatly impressed by their argument.

They explain that world history has tended to be studied and taught as a linear history, a series of stages (which even have names and start- and end-dates) through which humanity moves forward, towards ‘progress’. Because of the European empires, History has been understood as Western history, a tree in whose top branches are the developed nations (the great powers, the empires) led by elite white men who are the masters of technology and of the vision of progress (‘civilisation’, it used to be said), whereas lower down are the nations on the path set out by that model of development, and all the other subaltern groups.

These new historians — whose thinking is described in the article by Hugo and Daniela Fazio which I am suggesting to readers — point out that this concept of history is now unsustainable. The rise of Asia, especially China, is deconstructing this idea of Western history. But it is also deconstructed by the emergence of feminism and anti-racism, with its decolonial message, which have brought a shift away from this vision of History in favour of a much more global and diverse one. They have baptised History as a global history, and done so on the basis of a precious truth, which will be self-evident for those without gender or class blindness: Today, subaltern groups that have been under-represented or made invisible in contemporary history are bursting onto the scene, making new demands with new leaderships and epistemologies, as the myth of the West is dislocated in favour of a much more diverse world.

This displacement generates resentment among those who think that they are losing their privileged position, in a world that no longer sees them as an authority and thus challenges their position of power. The far right is just that: backlash by those who are losing their privileges, or fear losing them. The feeling that it manipulates is resentment: Not anger, not rage, not political disenchantment, but a resentful victimisation, the appeal to the wounded narcissism of those who feel they have lost their leading role in history, at home, or in the workplace. The rise of militarism and war are part of this violent reaction against a world that is shifting the terrain underneath them, and against the wave that is dislodging them from their position.

The fourth wave

One feminist book that had a huge impact in the 1990s was Backlash: The Undeclared War Against American Women. Its author Susan Faludi denounced the conservative backlash against women’s advancement in those years — insightfully pointing out that this backlash was not because women had achieved full equality, but because ‘it was possible for them to achieve it’. Faludi’s book helped me to understand that the rise of the far right is a reaction, first and foremost (though not only, against the fourth wave of feminism. I assure you: the data is irrefutable.

This 25 January, the Financial Times published a study that made the heads of many analysts of the far right explode. The article showed the youth vote by gender in South Korea, the US, Germany and the United Kingdom. It concluded that there is a yawning gap between the political attitudes of young women (who are far more progressive) and young men (who are more conservative and more likely to support the far right). The most shocking thing is that this is a global phenomenon, happening all over the world — including in Spain:

Ideological differences based on gender sorted by country. Source: Financial Times
Ideological differences based on gender sorted by country. Source: Financial Times

The strangest attempts are made to rationalise all this, often leaving me amazed. They range from claims that women are more ‘moderate’ to the idea that we have ‘less contact with migration’, and other such nonsense. It is obvious, without the gender blindness that pervades academia, that this is the consequence of the fourth wave that has swept the world. When it emerged, almost a decade ago, it did so globally, as a mass movement, expressed through social networks and with a strong intergenerational component.

This is, moreover, a feminist wave that has been more anti-capitalist than previous ones; a feminism that disarms the historical role of patriarchy and has won the battle for the aspiration of equality. The far right is a violent reaction to this displacement, to this dethroning of the pater familias, the dominant male, the maker of history.

Here I think it worth observing that many analyses reduce machismo and racism to moral, cultural attitudes — refusing to reckon with the fact that both constructs are used in capitalism to exploit us further. The self-evident fact that women and migrants are cheaper, indeed all over the planet, doesn’t seem to make a dent in their analysis. They have to go to great lengths to deny the data and continue to insist that women and migrants are minorities and treat us as such, even when the reality is quite the opposite. I almost admire their stubbornness.

I may be wrong, but I sense, moreover, that the analytical blindness is not only gender-based. I detect a stubborn reluctance to accept that there is no direct relationship between economic inequality and the growth of the far right; in other words, economic orthodoxy does not serve to analyse the phenomenon. If this were the case, there would be no way of explaining its success in Scandinavian countries (the least unequal in the world) or the fact that in the country where inequality is most glaring, South Africa, the far right does not even exist. Of course, the economic situation may be a trigger for the growth of the far right, but it is not its cause.

It seems that cold economistic metrics don’t grasp resentment — and resentment is the sentiment that drives backlash. To understand this better, I suggest reading the superb study by Tereza Capela et al. on Korean far-right youth, which concludes, decisively, that their attitudes are exclusively built on resentment and victimisation.

Reactionary whispers

I smell, with trained senses, a certain tendency (from which not even the European left is free) to appease some of the claims of the far right, in the face of the threat that they pose. This is itself a global phenomenon. I am beginning to hear, subtle as a whisper, that perhaps we feminists have gone too far, that we ought to pay more attention to the demands of these young men who are turning to the right, that immigration is a problem, that what’s happening in Palestine is not genocide, that we need to buy more weapons, that the climate crisis is not so fundamental…

I would argue the opposite. The antithesis to the far right — its nemesis — is precisely the defence of feminism, especially of young women and their demands, the concept of class versus nation, the defence of peace, diversity, equality, social justice, solidarity, ecology, and a common world. We must defend them, moreover, with an outlook that overcomes the narrow and hierarchical worldview of the West.

I would argue that the far right is a backlash against the energies with which we subalterns are starting to change the world. But I would also warn — to echo Susan Faludi — that this is backlash not only against change that has taken place already, but also against the possibility of future change. They are reacting violently to change, in order to prevent it from occurring. And that is what the far right is: pure reaction.

Marga Ferré is co-president of Transform Europe.

 

Boris Kagarlitsky: China and Russia in the modern world-system — A dual challenge


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Putin Xi

[Editor's note: Marxist sociologist Boris Kagarlitsky is currently in a Russian prison for speaking out against the full-scale invasion of Ukraine. In support of his release, the Boris Kagarlitsky International Solidarity Campaign is hosting an online conference on October 8, “Boris Kagarlitsky and the challenges of the left today”. LINKS International Journal of Socialist Renewal is proud to be a co-sponsor of this conference and encourages all readers to read the program and register for the conference today.]

The following article is the result of six letters sent by Boris Kagarlitsky from Russian prison to his co-author Dmitry Pozhidaev, who has then, with Kagarlitsky's permission, compiled, translated and edited them into an article.

Debates over whether Russia’s current decoupling from the West and pivot to China constitutes a real delinking from the imperialist centre, as conceptualised by Samir Amin (Amin, 2017), have intensified following the conflict in Ukraine and imposition of unprecedented Western sanctions against Russia (Kolyandr, 2024). The official Russian narrative frames this pivot as a process of “liberation from the Western yolk” (Karaganov, 2023), promoting a mutually beneficial partnership based on common values, mutual respect and non-interference — in contrast to the political and economic dependency experienced with the West. However, there is no consensus among political scientists and economists regarding the consequences of this development. Several scholars, including my co-author Dmitry Pozhidaev (2024), argue that Russia’s decoupling presents an opportunity for potential delinking from the capitalist core (though I fear Pozhidaev may be overly optimistic about this). In contrast, Milanovic (2022), Torkunov and Streltsov (2023), Komolov (2023), and Kluge (2024) highlight various risks associated with Russia’s growing dependency on China and the threat of direct exploitation — ranging from monetary and financial, to technological and political.

We have started a new research project with Pozhidaev to analyse if Russia’s reorientation toward China signifies a genuine move towards independent, self-centred development or simply a transfer of dependencies to a new global power. Following Amin (2017), we conceptualise delinking as having two interlinked components: decoupling and self-centred development. Delinking is not merely isolation (decoupling), but the reorganisation of economic and social systems to serve internal needs and priorities rather than the demands of global capital (self-centred development). As Katz (2023) argues, a mere conflict with the capitalist centre does not mean true delinking.

In this context, it is essential to develop a comprehensive understanding of China’s role in the ongoing development of the world-system, its potential as a new global capitalist centre, and the prospects for its relations with Russia. Understanding China’s position is complex, particularly as its current trajectory challenges established frameworks of world-systems analysis. As China evolves, it has emerged not only into a significant player within the global economy but as a potential catalyst for the disintegration of existing structures. This analysis explores the relationship between China’s ruling elite, its conservative developmental strategy, and the implications for international dynamics.

The conservative nature of China’s development

The difficulty in understanding China’s place in the modern world-system is that its current development does not fit into established frameworks of world-systems analysis (Wallerstein, 1974). Looking ahead, we can surmise that China is objectively a factor in the disintegration of the world-system, in accordance with the prophecies of the late Wallerstein (2004). One notable outcome of discussions among representatives of the world-systems school is that none of their proposed formulations appear sufficiently convincing.

China’s problem lies in the fact that the current ruling elite of the Celestial Empire is neither attempting to separate from the system nor to submit to it, nor are they striving to take a dominant position within it (that is, become a new hegemon). The essence of the modern Chinese bourgeoisie and bureaucracy’s attitude toward the outside world is to view it as merely a resource (or a collection of resources) to be utilised for China’s development. This development is fundamentally conservative; it is focused on the need to incorporate new resources and technologies into the economy, but for the exclusive purpose of maintaining the status quo — or, if you will, to preserve the harmony that was finally achieved at least 20 years ago (Huang, 2019).

The global role of Chinese capital appears to be purely reactionary. While China does not seek to control the development of peripheral countries, it shows little interest in these nations and their territories, focusing instead on the resources it can extract — ideally at minimal cost. A notable example is that of water resources in Kyrgyzstan and other Central Asian countries, where rivers originate in Chinese territory. China is effectively diverting water, which threatens to exacerbate the shallowing and potential death of Issyk-Kul Lake, echoing the fate of the Aral Sea (Katz, 2018). Moreover, the Chinese government is often unyielding in discussions with its neighbours, reflecting a pattern of predatory management observed in other regions, particularly Africa (see Bond’s discussion of BRICS as an “anti-imperialist fantasy and sub-imperialist reality”) (Bond, 2015).

These predatory practices not only exploit peripheral nations but serve to reinforce China’s internal economic strategies, which prioritise rapid industrialisation and resource accumulation over sustainable development. This focus can lead to short-term gains but may ultimately result in long-term instability, both domestically and internationally.

China's pragmatic engagement with the developing world

Since nothing is required from the outside world beyond resources, there is no aspiration for hegemony or domination. This is particularly evident in China’s policy toward Africa. In Africa, Chinese officials and business owners seek specific resources in each country they enter. They negotiate the acquisition of the necessary resource, often in predatory ways, but are entirely indifferent to the structure of the local economy, its political system, and so on (Alden, 2007; Chen, 2017). Unlike the International Monetary Fund, they do not impose reconstruction programs, nor do they concern themselves with human rights issues. They may, if necessary, implement a one-time assistance program in areas such as road construction, medicine, or transportation but, unlike Soviet specialists who previously worked in Africa, they show little interest in prospects for comprehensive development in any given country, including its ideology and management methods. This makes them ideal partners for conservative dictators (Zhang, 2018) who can then praise these “equal” relations. This predatory management is also characteristic of Chinese capital in Central Asia. Reports about Chinese activities in Siberia and the Far East paint a similarly bleak picture of China buying up forests in Siberia, conducting industrial activities resulting in significant environmental damage, occupying arable land, engaging in reckless poaching, and year-round extermination of fish in the Amur (Gotvansky, 2010).

The PRC’s policy is non-aggressive; instead, it is rarely offensive, and even defensive, tolerant, and wholly irresponsible. While the global bourgeoisie seeks to reshape the world, as Karl Marx suggested, in its own image, or as German researcher Mario Koestler posits, according to its needs, the Chinese bureaucratic bourgeoisie does not aim to reshape the world; it simply intends to extract from it everything it needs (including, incidentally, sales markets, which it actively occupies but never fully develops).

This approach has broader implications for global power dynamics. By prioritising resource extraction over equitable partnerships, China may inadvertently reinforce existing inequalities within the global economic system, creating dependencies that mirror those historically established by Western powers. Such practices risk alienating the countries involved and could lead to rising tensions, as local populations demand more substantial benefits from their relationships with Chinese investors.

China cannot and does not wish to become a new hegemon, as the outside world is indifferent to it. Anything that is not a necessary resource or a threat is simply not worth their attention. Of course, Chinese society is not homogeneous; it is also undergoing changes, and a significant question remains: how long will the current PRC elites be able to maintain this harmony that suits them?

Theoretical perspectives on China’s capitalism

Two tendencies have emerged in Marxist literature on contemporary China. One emphasises the capitalist nature of production and, more broadly, economic relations in the PRC, concluding that it is a capitalist country (Xing & Shaw, 2013). The other highlights the subordinate role of the bourgeoisie in China, the use of remnants of Communist rhetoric, and the continued existence of a substantial state sector with elements of planning, arguing that it is premature to declare capitalism victorious (Carchedi and Roberts, 2023; Nolan, 2019). However, neither perspective adequately analyses the Chinese elites themselves and their relations with society. Notably, Chinese Marxists in the 1920s described the phenomenon of a bureaucratic bourgeoisie that could dominate not only over the working masses but also over the commercial bourgeoisie, which had to share part of its surplus value (Hjellum, 2000; Li, 2020).

Preserving elements of the Communist system of the Soviet (Maoist) type is a vital tool not only for controlling the masses but for intra-elite resource redistribution, as seen, in part, in Russia. Moreover, it is naive to view the commercial bourgeoisie as definitively losing in this scenario; it purchases stability, security, access to resources, etc., all of which are integral to the aforementioned harmony.

China’s status in the world-system

Thus, today’s China poses a challenge to both orthodox Marxism and the world-systems school, whose main concepts were developed in the 1970s (Wallerstein, 1974). This does not imply that the methodologies of Marxism or world-systems analysis are outdated; rather, they need to be reapplied to analyse new phenomena without forcing them into existing templates.

This raises another issue that affects the conventional frameworks of world-systems analysis. Typically, we associate the peripheral status of a particular economy mainly with the negative aspects of its functioning and development. However, this is not always the case. For instance, in the 17th century, the emerging European semi-periphery and world periphery often received more silver than they gave away (see my works “Peripheral Empire” and “From Empires to Imperialism” for further details) (Kagarlitsky, 2008; Kagarlitsky, 2020). At the beginning of the 21st century, we can identify both prosperous and declining economies in the centre (for example, Saudi Arabia and Great Britain).

It is fundamentally important to note that neither the prosperity of some nor the decline of others changes their position and status within the system as a whole. The ability of certain countries to maximise benefits from a peripheral (semi-peripheral) type of integration into the world system helps ensure the political and social stability of conservative, even reactionary regimes, creating a sort of global pole of reaction (though not necessarily a unified political or ideological bloc).

In this respect, we could technically describe China as a prosperous semi-periphery, uninterested in altering the system as a whole or even in changing its place within it. The pressing question remains: how long can this harmony can be sustained under modern conditions, given the contradictions inherent in China’s internal development? (Here, a traditional Marxist sociological approach is more relevant than a world-systems perspective).

The role that China plays is not classical imperialism, as seen in the 19th century, which involved territorial control and investment in development. Nor is it hegemony, which implies a level of responsibility. Instead, it embodies a predatory extraction of resources, operating on the principle of “take and leave” (Katz, 2023).

Contrasting with Russia: The peripheral empire

Russia presents a different case. The specificity of a peripheral empire is that the ruling class periodically faces the temptation to use its power resources to enhance its status and position in the world-system without altering socio-political relations, and sometimes even to preserve them. This pattern was evident throughout much of imperial Russia’s history, and similar trends have been observable during Putin’s tenure in post-Soviet Russia (Roberts, 2019).

Giovanni Arrighi’s analysis of capitalism offers a useful framework for understanding Russia’s situation. Arrighi identifies two primary logics of capitalism: the logic of accumulation, which emphasises profit maximisation through capital investment; and the logic of coercion, which relies on the use of power and force to secure resources and maintain control (Arrighi, 1994). In Russia’s case, the ruling class often oscillates between these two logics, leveraging both economic resources and political power to assert its position within the global hierarchy.

However, such attempts often lead to internal crises (the Crimean War, the First World War, and even the Decembrist uprising after the Napoleonic Wars can be understood in this context). It is essential to recognise that using power resources to elevate the systemic status of the state is not unique to Russia; this phenomenon has been seen in various other peripheral (or semi-peripheral) countries, from Saddam Hussein’s Iraq to the Argentina of the generals in 1982. Crucially, such attempts always occur against a backdrop of a certain period of “peripheral prosperity” that, however, is often brief and unstable. We have observed how external failures or unforeseen difficulties that have derailed elites’ initial plans have historically marked turning points for changes that can potentially affect the development of the world-system as a whole.

Conclusion

As this analysis has demonstrated, while Russia’s pivot to China may initially appear as a strategic delinking from the imperialist centre, it risks merely transferring dependencies from one global power to another. The notion of self-centred development, as articulated by Amin, remains precarious under the weight of increasing Chinese influence and economic demands.

China’s role as a significant player in the global economy is marked by a conservative developmental strategy that prioritises resource extraction over genuine partnership with peripheral nations. This approach, while beneficial in the short term, may lead to growing tensions and discontent among the countries involved, as seen in regions such as Central Asia and Africa. For Russia, the temptation to leverage power resources for status enhancement could provoke internal crises and exacerbate existing vulnerabilities.

Looking ahead, the future itself raises questions for China. I believe that the next 5-7 years will see an intensification of the contradictions of the neoliberal economic model, to the point that change will become inevitable. Many, including myself, interpreted the financial and economic crisis of 2008-10 as the beginning of the end for liberalism, but it turned out, in Churchill’s words, to be “only the end of the beginning”. The subsequent influx of capital, largely facilitated by China, has played a significant role in sustaining the model favoured by the Chinese elite (Li, 2020).

However, what suited the Chinese elites 15 years ago may not serve them well in the coming years. As global dynamics shift and the world-system evolves, the very framework that has underpinned China’s economic strategy may become increasingly restrictive. If the contradictions of the neoliberal model continue to exacerbate, the Chinese elite may find themselves navigating a landscape that demands a reevaluation of their strategies and partnerships. This potential shift poses both risks and opportunities, compelling Chinese leaders to adapt to a rapidly changing global environment that could threaten their established position.

Ultimately, both China and Russia are at a crossroads. Despite lacking explicit plans or strategies for transforming the world-system, they are key factors in its disintegration, initiating a series of broader transformations. Their actions and policies in the coming years will not only shape their own futures but influence the broader trajectory of global capitalism. As they navigate these complex challenges, the potential for unforeseen consequences remains high, highlighting the need for adaptive strategies that prioritise sustainable development and equitable international relations.

References

Alden, C. (2007). China in Africa: Partner, Competitor or Hegemon? Zed Books.

Amin, S. (1990). Delinking: Towards a Polycentric World. Zed Books.

Arrighi, G. (1994). The Long Twentieth Century: Money, Power and the Origins of Our Times. Verso.

Bond, P. (2015). "The BRICS: The Anti-Imperialist Fantasy and Sub-Imperialist Reality". In Global Capitalism and the Future of Democracy. Palgrave Macmillan.

Carchedi, G., & Roberts, M. (2023). Capitalism in the Twenty-first Century: Through the Prism of Value. Pluto Press.

Chen, J. (2017). "China’s Africa Policy: An Overview". China Quarterly, 229, 404-423.

Gotvasnky, V. (2010). "China’s quiet expansion". Nezavisimaya Gazetahttps://www.ng.ru/regions/2010-09-23/5_china.html

Hjellum, T. (2000). "Features of capitalism and the restructuring of ruling classes in China". The Copenhagen Journal of Asian Studies, 14, 105-129.

Kagarlitsky, B. (2008). Empire of the Periphery: Russia and the World System. Pluto Press.

Kagarlitsky, B. (2020). From Empires to Imperialism: The State and the Rise of Bourgeois Civilisation. Routledge.

Karaganov, S. (2023). "We are throwing off the Western yolk". Business Gazeta Online. https://www.business-gazeta.ru/article/595204

Katz, C. (2018). "China and Water Politics in Central Asia". Asian Journal of Comparative Politics, 4(2), 171-188. https://doi.org/10.1177/2057891118781181

Katz, C. (2023). Dependency Theory After 50 Years. Haymarket Books.

Kluge, J. (2024). Russia-China economic relations: Moscow's road to economic dependence (No. 6/2024). SWP Research Paper.

Kolyandr, A. (2024). "West Seeks to Increase the Costs of Russia Sanctions Evasion". Carnegie Russia Eurasia Centerhttps://carnegieendowment.org/russia-eurasia/politika/2024/09/russia-eu-sanctions-trade?lang=en

Komolov, O. (2023). "Global’naya rol’ dollara I tendencii dedollarizacii mirovoy ekonomiki v novyh usloviyah" [The Global Role of the Dollar and Trends in the De-dollarization of the World Economy in the New Conditions]. Ekonomicheskoe vozrozhdenie Rossii, 2(76), 102-118.

Li, C. (2020). "Neoliberalism in contemporary China". In Economic neoliberalism and international development (pp. 165-183). Routledge.

Nolan, P. (2019). China's Rise: Challenges and Opportunities. Palgrave Macmillan.

Pozhidaev, D. (2024). "Russia’s delinking from the West: The great equalizer". LINKS International Journal of Socialist Renewalhttps://links.org.au/russias-delinking-west-great-equalizer

Roberts, M. (2019). "Imperial Russia and the Politics of Power". Socialist Register, 55, 138-158.

Torkunov, A., & Streltsov, D. (2023). "Russian Policy of Turning to the East: Problems and Risks". World Economy and International Relations, 67(4), 5-16.

Wallerstein, I. (1974). The Modern World-System: Capitalist Agriculture and the Origins of the European World-Economy in the Sixteenth Century.

Wallerstein, I. (2004). World-systems analysis: An introduction. Duke University Press.

Xing, L., & Shaw, T. M. (2013). "The political economy of Chinese state capitalism". Journal of China and international relations1(1)

Zhang, L. (2018). "China’s Engagement with Africa: Challenges and Opportunities". Asian Journal of Comparative Politics, 4(2), 137-156. https://doi.org/10.1177/2057891118766711



(Online conference) Boris Kagarlitsky and the challenges of the left today

Ever defiant in the face of repression and a five-year jail term, Boris Kagarlitsky, Russia’s best-known socialist thinker, has just published his latest book, The Long Retreat: Strategies to Reverse the Decline of the Left.

In Kagarlitsky’s honour, a special online conference will be held on October 8 to address the double aspect of his invaluable contribution to the left: his wide-ranging analysis of the left’s dilemmas in the face of multiple global crises and the advance of the far right; and his resistance — together with other persecuted anti-war activists in the Russian Federation — to the authoritarianism of the regime of Vladimir Putin.

Register here

Speakers include:

  • Nancy Fraser American philosopher, critical theorist, feminist, professor of philosophy at the New School in New York City. Fraser is widely known for her critique of identity politics and her work on the concept of justice.
  • Patrick Bond Distinguished Professor at the University of Johannesburg Department of Sociology, where he directs the Centre for Social Change.
  • Greg Yudin Russian sociologist, expert on public opinion and polls in Russia. Candidate of Philosophical Sciences. Professor at the Moscow Higher School of Social and Economic Sciences.
  • Alex Callinicos Rhodesian-born British political theorist and activist. An adherent of Trotskyism, he is a member of the Central Committee of the Socialist Workers Party (SWP) and serves as its International Secretary.
  • Hanna Perekhoda Member of solidaritéS in Vaud Canton, Switzerland, and a PhD candidate in Political Science (University of Lausanne).
  • Robert Brenner American economic historian. He is a professor emeritus of history and director of the Center for Social Theory and Comparative History at UCLA, editor of the socialist journal Against the Current, and editorial committee member of New Left Review.
  • Ilya Matveev Political scientist formerly based in St Petersburg, Russia. Currently a visiting scholar at UC Berkeley.
  • Ilya Budraitskis Moscow-based historian and political writer. He is current member of editorial board of Moscow Art Magazine, Openleft.ru and LeftEast.
  • Bill Fletcher Jr Former president of TransAfrica Forum; a Senior Scholar with the Institute for Policy Studies; and in the leadership of several other projects.
  • Ksenia Kagarlitskaia Daughter of Boris Kagarlitsky, organizer of the international festival in support of political prisoners "Freedom Zone".
  • Speaker from Feminist Anti-War Resistance Group of Russian feminists founded in February 2022 to protest against the 2022 Russian invasion of Ukraine.
  • Speaker from Memorial Non-profit organization engaged in the study of political repression in the USSR and modern Russia, promoting the moral and legal rehabilitation of persons subjected to political repression.
  • Trevor Ngwane South African socialist, anti-apartheid activist, author and teacher at the University of Johannesburg.
  • Pavel Kudyukin Co-chair of the University Solidarity Trade Union, a member of the Council of the Confederation of Labour of Russia, and was the Deputy Minister of Labour of Russia (1991-1993)
  • Jayati Ghosh Professor of Economics at the University of Massachusetts Amherst (US) since January 2021. Her latest book is The Making of a Catastrophe: The Disastrous Economic Fallout of the Covid-19 Pandemic in India.

Conference program

Note on format: Each session will run for 90 minutes, made up of a 10-minute introduction by the moderator, 20-minute presentations by the speakers and 20 minutes discussion. The main time given is Eastern Daylight Time (US and Canada), while the times in parentheses are, respectively, Central European Time, Indian Standard Time and Australian Eastern Standard Time.

09:15 – 09:30 (15:15 -15:30 CET, 18:45 -19:00 IST, 23:15 - 23:30 AEST)
Introduction: Andrea Levy (Coordinating editor of Canadian Dimension) and Fred Fuentes (editor, Links, International Journal of Socialist Renewal) present the Boris Kagarlitsky International Solidarity Campaign and the aims of the conference.

09:30 – 10:00 (15:30 -16:00 CET, 19:00 -19:30 IST, 23:30 - 00:00 AEST)
Opening address: Nancy Fraser

10:00 – 11:45 (16:00 -17:45 CET, 19:30 - 21:15 IST, 00:00 - 01:45 AEST)
The Long Retreat (presentation and discussion)
Moderator: David Castle (Editorial Director, Pluto Press)
Speakers: Bill Fletcher, Alex Callinicos and Jayati Ghosh

11:45 – 12:00 (17:45 -18:00 CET, 21:15 - 21:30 IST, 01:45 - 02:00 AEST)
Break

12:00 – 13:30 (18:00 -19:30 CET, 21:30 - 23:00 IST, 02:00 - 03:30 AEST)
The situation for the left in Russia today
Moderator: Anna Ochkina (professor of sociology, Penza State University)
Speakers: Greg Yudin, Ilya Budraitskis and a representative of Feminist Anti-War Resistance

13:30 – 13:40 (19:30 -19:40 CET, 23:00 - 23:10 IST, 03:30 - 03:40 AEST)
Presentation of the Daniel Singer Prisoner of Conscious Award
Suzi Weissman and Ksenia Kagarlitskaya

13:40 – 14:30 (19:40 - 20:30 CET, 23:10 - 00:00 IST, 03:40 - 04:30 AEST)
Break

14:30 – 16:00 (20:30 - 22:00 CET, 00:00 - 01:30 IST, 04:30 - 06:00 AEST)
Imperialism(s) today
Moderator: Adam Novak
Speakers: Robert Brenner, Ilya Matveev and Hanna Perekhoda

16:00 – 16:15 (22:00 - 22:15 CET, 01:30 - 01:45 IST, 06:00 - 06:15 AEST)
Break

16:15 – 18:00 (22:15 - 24:00 CET, 01:45 - 03:30 IST, 06:15 - 08:00 AEST)
Repression and the threat to intellectual freedom: Russia and beyond
Moderator: Fiona Dove (Executive Director, Transnational Institute)
Speakers: Pavel Kudyukin, Patrick Bond and Trevor Ngwane