A year ago, the hostages were a rallying point for solidarity in Israel – now, their families are symbols of the country’s sharp divides

Shai P. Ginsburg, Duke University
Mon 7 October 2024


People in Tel Aviv protest against the Israeli government and call for the release of hostages held in the Gaza Strip on Sept. 21, 2024. AP Photo/Mahmoud Illean


In the run-up to the first anniversary of Hamas’ attack on Israel, there has been no shortage of dramatic events making headlines in Israel. On Oct. 1, Israelis took shelter during Iran’s missile attack. In the days leading up to the attack, Israel assassinated Hassan Nasrallah, Hezbollah’s longtime leader, in Beirut; invaded Lebanon; and saw its economic rating downgraded, to name a few.

What was notably missing from the newspaper pages were the 101 hostages still held by Hamas, with about a third presumed dead. Their faces still look out at you from posters and flyers on walls, billboards, fences and bus stops, as well as in ads and banners in newspapers and news outlets. However, their stories have faded from the spotlight, where they had been for nearly a year.

When Hamas attacked Israel on Oct. 7, 2023, the state was experiencing its most severe political conflict since its establishment. Many saw the right-wing government’s attempts to overhaul the judicial system as an effort to dismantle Israeli democracy, sparking weekly mass protests. For a few short weeks after the attack, the protests subsided, and it seemed as if Israel might overcome its internal divisions in efforts to retrieve the hostages.

However, the hopes for solidarity soon faded. The hostages quickly went from a symbol of national resolve and unity to a symbol of the country’s preexisting divides.

A woman wears a blindfold during a September 2024 protest in Tel Aviv calling for a cease-fire deal and the immediate release of hostages held in Gaza by Hamas. AP Photo/Ohad Zwigenberg

As a scholar of Israeli culture, history and politics, I have been monitoring coverage in Israel and abroad. On the international stage, the image of the hostages has been employed to justify Israel’s devastation of the Gaza Strip – and now its military operations in Lebanon. Within Israel, however, attention on the hostages has posed a significant challenge for Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and his coalition.
Two groups, two priorities

Most advocacy efforts for the hostages are channeled through the Hostages and Missing Families Forum, a volunteer-based organization that focuses on “bringing our loved ones home by any means necessary through all available channels” – including as part of negotiations for a cease-fire or a complete military pullout from Gaza.

However, a small group of families established a rival organization, the Tikva Forum – meaning “Hope.” They state on their website: “The Tikva Forum will not allow our children, parents, and friends to be used to bolster our enemies or enable them to repeat the attacks of October 7th. Our only option is to win this war and to remove any incentive to ever attack Israel again.” Viewing the liberation of the hostages as less important than decisively defeating Israel’s enemies, they oppose efforts to de-escalate the conflict or negotiate with Hamas.

Pictures of fallen Israeli soldiers are displayed during a Jerusalem rally against a hostage deal, organized by right-wing Israelis with relatives held hostage in Gaza and their supporters. AP Photo/Maya Alleruzzo

It is no surprise, then, that these two forums have aligned themselves with opposing political camps, with the prime minister’s coalition embracing the Tikva Forum.
Thorn in the government’s side

In the weeks and months after the attack, members of the Hostages and Missing Families Forum became increasingly frustrated with Netanyahu and his government. Following the first Israel–Hamas prisoner exchange in November 2023, which saw the release of 80 Israeli hostages and 25 foreign nationals, it became evident that key factions within the prime minister’s coalition opposed any further deals that might involve concessions to Hamas.

Bringing an end to the war would thwart far-right parties’ vision of resuming Israeli control over Gaza, expelling Palestinians and renewing Jewish settlements there. Time and again, they have threatened to withdraw from the coalition and trigger new elections if Netanyahu agrees to a cease-fire in Gaza – and recently, in Lebanon as well.

Members of Netanyahu’s coalition have disparaged appeals made by the Hostages and Missing Families Forum. More than once, legislators from the prime minister’s Likud party have accused the forum of serving Hamas’ interests. Yuli Edelstein, chairman of the foreign affairs and defense committee, ran into an uncle of a hostage in the Knesset and told him to “get out of my sight.” When hostages’ family members told Nissim Vaturi, the deputy speaker of the Knesset, that their loved ones were going hungry in Gaza, he responded: “Did you eat this morning? So everything is fine.” Netanyahu himself only met with families of hostages murdered in Gaza in June, eight months after Hamas’ attack and only after prolonged public outcry.

For many, such conduct symbolizes the failure of politicians to secure the life of Israeli citizens, and their disregard for their pain.

In response, members of the Hostages and Missing Families Forum have taken an increasingly public role in demonstrations against the government. These have intensified significantly in recent weeks.

Relatives and friends of hostages Hamas is holding in the Gaza Strip block a road during a protest demanding their release, in Tel Aviv. AP Photo/Oded Balilty
Controversial ceremony

The Oct. 7 memorial ceremonies themselves illustrate the current state of Israel’s polarization.

An official ceremony will be led by the minister of transport, Miri Regev. The kibbutz communities which bore the brunt of the Hamas attack, however – home to many of the hostages still held in Gaza – announced that they would not take part. They noted that Netanyahu and his government have yet to take responsibility for the disaster and that they showed little care for the victims and survivors of Oct. 7.

When Regev planned to visit Kibbutz Be'eri, the site of one of the most horrible massacres, residents asked her not to enter the kibbutz. According to an investigation from Israel’s Channel 13, her spokesman said, “These Kibbutzim are the extreme left. … We have to get the minister a camel and a kaffiyeh. Start chopping off heads,” suggesting the minister should finish the work started by Hamas. Regev likewise threatened that Be'eri “will be the last kibbutz to be rebuilt.” She dismissed criticism of the official ceremony as “background noise.” Attempting to pacify the public outcry, President Isaac Herzog offered to host the state ceremony instead, but Regev rejected it outright.

Yigal Sarusi, center, mourns during the funeral of his son, Almog Sarusi, who was killed in Hamas captivity in Gaza, at a cemetery in Ra'anana, Israel, on Sept. 1, 2024. AP Photo/Ariel Schalit

On their part, many families of victims and of hostages decided to boycott the official ceremony and hold alternative ones, with the main one to take place in Tel Aviv.
Shaping the story

Indeed, the government seems intent on controlling how Oct. 7 and its aftermath are remembered and diverting attention from its failures – embodied first and foremost by the hostages. Government guidelines for commemoration ceremonies in schools, for example, mention neither the hostages nor the ongoing war in Gaza as topics to be discussed. Instead, they suggest focusing on those who were killed and sharing stories of heroism.

From this perspective, the recent military operations in Yemen and Lebanon and the possibility of strikes in Iran have been advantageous for Netanyahu and his coalition. For the first time in a year, Israeli actions have generated headlines showcasing Israeli success.

While Israelis remain divided on the objectives of the war in Gaza and the best strategies to free the hostages, recent polls indicate that 90% of Israeli Jews support the offensive against Hezbollah. Following recent military successes, approval ratings for the prime minister, minister of defense and military chief of staff have improved significantly: to 37%, 57% and 63%, respectively.

As the anticipated military escalation looms, attention has been diverted from the hostages and their families, and some have expressed concerns that those in captivity will be all but forgotten. Their fears appear well grounded.

This article is republished from The Conversation, a nonprofit, independent news organization bringing you facts and trustworthy analysis to help you make sense of our complex world. It was written by: Shai P. Ginsburg, Duke University

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Hurricane Milton One Of The Strongest Storms Ever Recorded In Atlantic Basin; Threat Has Residents Fleeing & Disney World Resort Closing Some Attractions – Update

Tom Tapp
Tue 8 October 2024 


UPDATED, 1:20 a.m. PT: Hurricane Milton has officially became one of the strongest storms ever recorded in the Atlantic Basin. Milton’s maximum sustained winds reached 180 mph late Monday, then declined to 155 mph as the storm skimmed across the top of Cancun, Mexico. It is now a Category 4 cyclone and expected explode in size as it approaches Florida, making landfall as a Category 3 major hurricane.

More important than windspeed — and meteorologists say more accurate — is the storm’s barometric pressure. Pressure more accurately predicts damage from storm surge, inland flooding and tornadoes as well as storm size or storm duration over a community.

More from Deadline

Donald Trump’s Univision Town Hall Postponed As Hurricane Milton Intensifies And Threatens Florida


Dolly Parton Donates $1 Million To Hurricane Helene Relief, With Her Companies Matching The Amount


Hurricane Helene Hits Florida Theme Parks: Peppa Pig Park Closes, Disney World Opens

To that point, Milton’s pressure dropped to 897 millibars on Monday night. That’s the fifth-lowest reading ever seen in the Atlantic Basin. The other storms in that group are Rita in 2005 at 895 mb, the Labor Day Hurricane of 1935 at 892 mb, Gilbert in 1988 at 888 mb and Wilma in 2005 at 882 mb. Since dropping to 897, Milton’s pressure has since come up to 924 mb.

For a sense of the storm’s power as it brushed past Cancun, see the video below of conditions there on Monday night.



Cancun right now. I’ve never seen lightening like this😳#Milton #Cancun pic.twitter.com/WEf5TMFJdb

— SugaIsMyPetRock (Pamela) (@Pamella_Burks) October 8, 2024

Walt Disney World Resort on Monday announced the first closures as Milton barrels toward Florida. Some attractions are expected to be closed for days after the storm, according to a WDW statement.

Resort officials say they are “closely monitoring the path of the projected storm, and the safety of our Guests and Cast Members remains our top priority.” While Walt Disney World Resort announced on Monday that it “is currently operating under normal conditions and will continue to be on Tuesday,” officials have just announced the first “Looking ahead, we are making “adjustments based on the latest weather forecast and some areas with unique environments.”

Those are:

Disney’s Fort Wilderness Resort & Campground (including dining and recreation locations), the Copper Creek Cabins at Disney’s Wilderness Lodge, and the Treehouse Villas at Disney’s Saratoga Springs Resort & Spa will temporarily close beginning at 11:00 AM on Wednesday, Oct. 9.


Disney’s Fort Wilderness Resort & Campground and the Treehouse Villas at Disney’s Saratoga Springs Resort & Spa are likely to remain closed until Sunday, Oct. 13.


The Copper Creek Cabins at Disney’s Wilderness Lodge will likely reopen on Friday, Oct. 11.

The resort’s cancellation or change policy in regard to hurricanes reads as follows:

If a hurricane warning is issued by the National Hurricane Center for the Orlando area—or for your place of residence—within 7 days of your scheduled arrival date, you may reschedule or cancel your Walt Disney Travel Company Disney Resort hotel packages and most room only reservations (booked directly with Disney) without any cancellation or change fees imposed by Disney.

The NWS announced on Monday evening that Orlando (and much of the rest of west and central Florida) is currently under a Hurricane Warning, which means that hurricane conditions are expected.


In 2022, much of Walt Disney World closed for three days as Hurricane Ian brought gusts of 74 mph to Orlando International Airport and 14 inches of rain to the region. Universal Orlando also closed. Flooding was a major issue and, with airports closed, WDW had some guests shelter in place through the storm. Guests trapped inside its resort hotels had the makings of a horror movie. Instead, WDW castmembers’ above-and-beyond care for those guests was a bright spot in our related coverage.

How Milton impacts the parks remains to be seen. But Florida’s governor is not expecting sunshine.

“We have to assume this is going to be a monster,” said Florida Governor Ron DeSantis at a Monday briefing on Hurricane Milton preparations.

As the storm hit sustained winds of 180 mph on Monday, Milton’s sustained wind speed had jumped 100 mph in 24 hours as it went from tropical storm to Cat. 5 hurricane in near-record time. According to the National Hurricane Service, only Wilma in 2005 and Felix in 2007 intensified more quickly.

As a result, states of emergency have been declared in counties across the state as residents and visitors begin to evacuate. Sporting events are being postponed and some WDW-adjacent Florida theme parks are being closed. Donald Trump’s scheduled town hall with Univision was also postponed.

In Winter Haven Florida just north of Orlando, Peppa Pig Theme Park will shutter today through Thursday, October 10. Hotel operations will continue with limited capacity. The park also closed down during Helene. Nearby LEGOLAND Florida will be closed on Wednesday, October 9 through Thursday, October 10. Hotel operations there will also continue with limited capacity.

DeSantis, for his part, said the federal government has given him everything he has asked for, rebutting media questions seeking to identify any friction between the combative GOP governor and the Biden Administration. He also noted that emergency personnel were coming from as far away as rival Gavin Newsom’s California.

DeSantis said a state of emergency had been declared in 51 counties, including Hillsborough, Pinellas, Pasco, Miami-Dade, Broward, Orange and Osceola (the major Orlando resorts are located in the latter two counties).

Milton is expected to slam into Florida near Tampa at around 8 p.m. Wednesday.

The storm is expected to weaken further before it makes landfall, likely still as a Category 3 major hurricane. Even that would be a historic, unprecedented landfall for the vulnerable Tampa Bay region. Weather Channel meteorologists noted Monday afternoon that storms that start at Cat. 5 and weaken just before landfall are often very large and very destructive, even though they’ve lost wind velocity. That was the case with Hurricane Katrina.

Per the latest NWS forecast at 4 p.m. ET on Monday: “Radar data indicate that Milton could be at the beginning of an eyewall replacement cycle, with some signs of a moat and a partial outer eyewall. The evolution will likely cause the system to gradually weaken on Tuesday but grow larger.”

The top sustained winds ever for a cyclone in the region were recorded in 1980 with Hurricane Allen. Its winds were estimated to have reached 190 mph before it slackened and made landfall in Texas.

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for the Florida Gulf coast from Chokoloskee to the mouth of the Suwanee River, including Tampa Bay, Dry Tortugas and Lake Okeechobee near palm beach. Nearly the entire state of Florida — besides the Panhandle — is under a Flash Flood Watch. A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for the Florida Gulf coast from Flamingo northward to the mouth of the Suwannee River, including Charlotte Harbor and Tampa Bay. Many of those areas are still piled with debris and wreckage from Helene.

This is Anna Maria Island, near Tampa, after Helene. A complete loss- looks like a bomb went off. The residents didn’t have time to clear this debris before having to evacuate again for Hurricane Milton, which will be a major hurricane when it hits on Wednesday. Heart breaking. pic.twitter.com/YbCJbYBXVc

— Ella Dorsey (@Ella__Dorsey) October 7, 2024

Smack in the middle of Milton’s current predicted path is Tampa Bay and its barrier islands.


“The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters moving inland from the shoreline,” a NWS statement read. “The water could reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide…”

The NWS updated its surge forecast for the west coast of Florida this evening, moving Tampa Bay and environs from 8-12 feet to 10-15 feet.


For comparison, Hurricane Helene brought a maximum storm surge of eight feet to the barrier islands around Tampa Bay. That was less that two weeks ago. Now, the region could see a column of water very close to double that stacked across some low-lying areas.


The deadliest hurricane in the Tampa region’s recorded history was a Cat. 3 storm that hit in October of 1921. It killed eight people. At the time, the population of the area was about 120,000, according to reporting by the New York Times. Its current population is three million.

In recent history, Tampa Bay has dodged major impacts. That will no longer be the case after Milton.

“We are telling people this will be like the worst hurricane in their lifetime in Tampa Bay,” Rick Davis, a meteorologist at the National Weather Service in Tampa, told the paper.

Tampa International Airport will close at 9 a.m. today and St. Pete-Clearwater Airport will close after the last flight today and remain closed Wednesday and Thursday, according to the Orlando Sentinel.

In Orlando, which is inland but also directly in the predicted path of the storm, a local state of emergency has been declared in the city. Orlando International Airport and Orlando Executive Airport announced they will cease operations in advance of Hurricane Milton beginning Wednesday morning.

Even as Milton weakens it will scour the state. The inland region is likely to see hurricane-force winds.

“Milton is forecast to remain a hurricane as it crosses the Florida Peninsula and life-threatening hurricane-force winds, especially in gusts, are expected to spread inland across a portion of the entire Florida Peninsula,” according to the 4 p.m. ET NWS forecast on Monday.


While NWS graphics released Sunday put Orlando on the edge of the swath at moderate risk of flash flooding (see below for that archived graphic), Monday’s update (see above) puts the city and most of Northern Florida in that category.

The Weather Channel today reported traffic on the I-4 at a standstill heading north as residents and visitors begin evacuating. Video posted online showed the backup.



#HurricaneMilton Evacuation traffic in Orlando on I-4 East is backed up all the way from downtown past Highway 17 in Lake Alfred #FLwx pic.twitter.com/XTN4elelKP

— Chris FL Tornado (@ChrisFLTornado) October 7, 2024

The current color-coded map of evacuation orders issued by Florida Governor Ron DeSantis is below.

Further south near Fort Lauderdale, the NHL champion Florida Panthers postponed their ring ceremony which had been set for today out of an abundance of caution.

UPDATED, 6:43 AM: Hurricane Milton has intensified into a Category 4 hurricane, with a dangerous surge threatening Tampa Bay.

In a briefing this morning, the National Weather Service said that Milton will be a historic storm for the west coast of Florida and that its path includes Tampa and Orlando.

PREVIOUSLY, October 6: Ten days after the Southeast was wracked by Helene, one the deadliest storms in modern history, the National Weather Service today forecast that newly formed Hurricane Milton is headed toward Central Florida and could impact the entire state.

“Milton is forecast to move just north of the Yucatan Peninsula and across the southern Gulf of Mexico on Monday and Tuesday and approach the west coast of the Florida Peninsula by Wednesday,” reads a NWS report.

“Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 90 mph (150 km/h) with higher gusts. Milton is forecast to intensify rapidly and become a major hurricane on Monday.”

That means Milton will shift from a tropical storm to a Cat. 3 hurricane in the space of 24 hours. Cat. 3 on the Saffir-Simpson Scale means winds of 111-129 mph. Per the NWS, “The official intensity forecast…shows Milton rapidly strengthening to category 4 intensity within the next couple of days.” Thankfully, it is expected to weaken slightly before reaching the west coast of Florida. According to the chart below, it is expected to make landfall as a major hurricane, likely Cat. 3.

Hurricane-force winds currently extend outward up to 25 miles from the center and tropical-storm-force winds up to 80 miles out.

Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis said Sunday that most of the state will likely be impacted. He has declared a state of emergency in 51 counties, including Hillsborough, Pinellas, Pasco, Miami-Dade and Broward.

“I don’t think there’s any scenario where we don’t have significant impacts at this point,” he said at a news conference. “If you’re on that west coast of Florida and barrier islands, just assume that you likely are going to be called upon to evacuate.”

Unnamed hurricanes of 1909, 1910, 1929, 1933, 1945, and 1949 were all Category 3 storms when they struck South Florida, as were King of 1950, Betsy of 1965, Jeanne of 2004, and Irma of 2017. Milton would be the third hurricane to hit the state this year.

The current forecast cone, which could change drastically in the next two days, has Milton making landfall just south of Tampa Bay which just 10 days ago saw a storm surge of eight feet on some of the barrier islands in and around Pinellas County. Local officials there are desperately trying to clean up debris from Helene so they don’t become airborne or floodborne projectiles.

Officials told the Tampa Bay Times that Milton could be far worse than Helene. Sewage systems and power could be out for weeks, according to the paper’s reporting.

DeSantis warned in a statement posted to social media that the storm threatens more than just the state’s west coast.

“Impacts will be felt across the Florida peninsula, as Milton is forecasted to exit Florida’s east coast as a hurricane,” wrote the governor.

In a news conference with the governor, Florida Division of Emergency Management Director Kevin Guthrie told residents, “I highly encourage you to evacuate. We are preparing, and I have the State Emergency Response Team preparing, for the largest evacuation that we have seen most likely since 2017 Hurricane Irma.”



'I highly encourage you to evacuate': State officials say they are planning for what may be the largest evacuation Florida has seen since Hurricane Irma in 2017. MORE: https://t.co/BNR4Pido38 pic.twitter.com/5JALWaRK9t

— FOX Weather (@foxweather) October 6, 2024

The storm’s current projected path takes it over Orlando, with the region and its theme parks just on the edge of the greatest projected risk of flash flooding over the next five days, at 40%. During Helene, Walt Disney World and Universal Orlando mostly stayed open, closing only a few outdoor attractions.

Peppa Pig Theme Park Florida closed its doors on September 27, after the storm damaged attractions at the preschool experience. SeaWorld Orlando shut at 2 p.m on the 26th. Busch Gardens Tampa, Adventure Island, and Aquatica Orlando also shut down that day.

Orange and Osceola Counties, in which the parks sit, are among those DeSantis placed under a state of emergency this weekend in anticipation of the storm. Currently, both of the Orlando parks have issued notices that they are currently operating as normal but “closely monitoring” the storm as it develops.

Of note, the low-lying area in and around Miami is also projected to be at the greatest flash flood risk.


Per the NWS, “After crossing Florida, the cyclone should turn east-northeastward to eastward over the Atlantic waters off the southeastern United States.” Currently, it looks set to spare hard-hit western North Carolina.

Greg Evans contributed to this story

Project 2025 would ‘unequivocally’ lead to more hurricane deaths, experts warn

Dharna Noor and Oliver Milman

THE GUARDIAN
Tue 8 October 2024 

The aftermath of Hurricane Helene in Asheville, North Carolina, on 3 October 2024.Photograph: Mario Tama/Getty Images


With communities still reeling from Hurricane Helene, one of the deadliest storms ever to hit the US, further pain in the form of Hurricane Milton is about to hit Florida. Experts warn such disasters will be deepened if Donald Trump is elected and follows the policy plans of the controversial rightwing Project 2025 manifesto.

Under Project 2025, authored by numerous former Trump officials but disavowed by the former president himself, the federal forecasting of severe storms and aid given to shattered towns and cities would be drastically scaled back. Emergency management officials say the cuts would severely worsen the outcomes from a storm like Helene.

Project 2025 calls for “breaking up and downsizing” the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (Noaa), which it calls a primary component “of the climate change alarm industry”. The agency’s climate research is “harmful to future US prosperity” and should be disbanded, the document says.


Noaa houses the National Weather Service (NWS) which provides forecasts and analyses on hurricanes and other extreme weather events. Project 2025 calls for the service to “fully commercialize its forecasting operations”.

“They want to pretend climate change isn’t clearly having an effect,” said Andrew Rosenberg, a former Noaa official who is now a fellow at the University of New Hampshire and who called the proposals “ridiculous”.

Introducing a profit-motive into the NWS would undermine commitment to the public interest, said Rosenberg.

“The primary motivation of a business is profit, and do you really want to have things like severe weather forecasts for things like a massive storm be driven by a profit?” Rosenberg asked.

If enacted, the playbook would also radically reimagine the Federal Emergency Management Agency (Fema), ending its federal flood insurance program – the country’s top federal flood insurance provider – and shrinking its disaster aid.

“It would result in greater suffering, more complicated responses and greater risks across the country,” said Samantha Montano, an expert in emergency management at Massachusetts Maritime Academy.

Project 2025 “unequivocally leads to more people dying from a hurricane”, said the Florida representative Jared Moskowitz, a Democrat who was previously a Florida emergency management director.
Tracking the storm

Ahead of disasters, the NWS blitzes first responders and residents; before Helene the agency sent warnings reading “urgent” across the US south-east. Emergency responders compare those warnings and forecasts to floodplains and maps “to determine how people should prepare”, Moskowitz said.

Those warnings are based on data from Noaa’s Asheville, North Carolina-based National Centers for Environmental Information, which puts weather into a historical perspective.

“When the forecast for Helene says words like unprecedented, extremely rare and catastrophic, those words are based on the very real climatology records,” said Marjorie McGuirk, an Asheville-based meteorologist who for years worked for the centers.

Noaa’s forecasts of Helene were “absolutely spot on” because they took this climate data into account, McGuirk said.

“Project 2025 pretty much does away with all of that,” she said. “It destroys the integrity of forecasts.”

Emergency responders reportedly regret not taking Noaa’s warnings more seriously ahead of Helene. But counties did receive mandatory evacuation orders, which likely saved lives.

“If it’s privatized, would it still provide forecasts to emergency managers?” Moskowitz asked. “And what if there are business investors involved who have an interest in keeping people in their homes?”

NWS forecasts are currently free to access, but Project 2025 could place forecasts behind a paywall leaving poorer government bodies and communities less prepared.

Though Project 2025 says Americans already rely on private forecasts from companies like AccuWeather, those companies by and large rely on NWS data to inform their own products.

Dismantling the weather service would also disrupt the NWS’s National Hurricane Center (NHC), which predicts and tracks tropical cyclones. Project 2025 calls for a “review” of the NHC and for its data to be “presented neutrally, without adjustments intended to support any one side in the climate debate”.

Project 2025 also says the Office of Oceanic and Atmospheric Research (OAR) should be “disbanded” because it is “the source of much of Noaa’s climate alarmism”. But the office conducts research that underpins most weather and forecasting studies nationally.

It’s a “nonsensical” assertion, said Rosenberg. “Climate change is observably changing both the pattern and the intensity of the storms. So do they account for that in their forecasts? Yeah, they better,” he said.
After the storm hits

Project 2025 envisions a radically different role for the Federal Emergency Management Agency (Fema) that is currently dealing with the devastating aftermath of Helene amid a swirl of misinformation and falsehoods, stoked by Trump, that funding is being directed towards immigrants at the expense of disaster-hit communities.

In fact, Fema has said that its disaster relief fund is not being used for any other purpose than to help those in need from storms like Helene. Such a response would be reshaped under Project 2025’s prescriptions, however, with Fema shifted out of the department of homeland security and into the Department of Interior or the Department of Transportation.

Fema would provide much less help to communities under this plan and push responsibility to the states and local governments, with the federal government covering just 25% of the cost of disasters, or up to 75% for “truly catastrophic events”, according to the document. Currently, under the Stafford Act, Fema covers at least 75% of disaster costs once requested, and up to 100% at a president’s discretion.

Project 2025 also demands Fema scrap grants going to states to help them become more resilient to future storms and to privatize the National Flood Insurance Program (NFIP), which provides most flood cover to Americans. Ken Cuccinelli, a former Trump official and Project 2025 author wrote that “if we focus them (Fema) more narrowly when they are deployed, they will do a better job”.

Had this shrunken version of Fema been in place ahead of Hurricane Helene and, now, Hurricane Milton, the initial clean-up after the storms hit would remain much the same but the longer-term recovery would “look vastly different” for places already facing years of recovery, said Montano.

“The states couldn’t afford the costs associated with rebuilding roads, bridges and other infrastructure, let alone have funding for individuals and businesses,” she said.

“The non-profit sector wouldn’t be able to make up the difference. It’s a very bad idea.”

Even the initial recovery for hurricane-hit communities would be hampered by less federal support, according to Craig Fugate, former administrator of Fema, who pointed out that just removing downed trees and other debris after Hurricane Michael in 2018 cost five times more than the entire annual budget of the badly-hit city of Mexico Beach, Florida.

“States don’t usually have a lot of spare money floating around so they would have to decide whether to raise taxes or cut programs to make up the funding,” Fugate said. “You’d have to move money from schools, prisons and healthcare to respond to a disaster. Most likely, local governments would go bankrupt.”

Longer term, a reduced Fema role would mean that when vital structures like schools, hospitals and highways are rebuilt they wouldn’t have to adhere to federal guidelines that demand a far stronger resilience standard than many states do, to deal with the reality of fiercer extreme weather driven by the climate crisis.

In North Carolina, for example, the Republican-led state legislature has wound back extreme weather construction requirements, a move that experts say make residents more vulnerable to major storms like Helene.

Private insurers would likely not step in or go immediately bankrupt if they had to fill the void of a removed federal flood insurance scheme, Fugate said, leaving even more people without flood insurance. The federal initiative was set up in the 1960s after private insurers fled the market in the wake of several disastrous floods.

“Just relying on the market wouldn’t make sense – the reason we have the NFIP is because private companies refused to cover flooding,” said Montano. “There’s no evidence there would be a robust and effective private insurance market given the risks we are seeing now. There are absolutely problems with the NFIP but we need to fix the program we have.”

Former Fema executives agree that the agency does need reform but they spoke in terms of retooling it to an era of climate crisis and more intense storms unknown when it was formed in 1979. The growing cavalcade of disasters has been underlined by Helene’s impact being quickly followed by Hurricane Milton’s expected landfall in Florida.

“We are facing unprecedented times, we are getting these disaster declarations every other day this year,” said Anne Bink, who headed Fema’s response and recovery operation until May this year.

“Fema is needed more than ever by state and local governments because of the increased pace in disasters. We can’t just build back like before, we really need to invest in resilience.”

Neither the Heritage Foundation, the main author of Project 2025, nor the Trump campaign responded to questions about disaster forecasting and response.



Hurricane Milton is threatening an already-battered Florida — and is now a political issue

Geoff Weiss,Erin Snodgrass,Aditi Bharade

Business Insider

Updated Tue 8 October 2024


Hurricane Milton is a Category 4 storm, having earlier intensified into a Category 5 storm, the most severe.


It's set to make landfall on Wednesday in Florida, which is still reeling from Hurricane Helene.


The hurricanes have also whipped up a political storm, with Trump claims sparking a FEMA response.

Floridians are bracing for another serious storm even as they recover from the last one that barreled through the region.

Hurricane Milton intensified into a Category 5 storm — the most severe classification — in the Gulf of Mexico on Monday. It later weakened to a Category 4 storm and is expected to make landfall in Florida on Wednesday. The National Hurricane Center said the storm's intensity was expected to fluctuate, but it remained "extremely dangerous."

That's less than two weeks after Hurricane Helene tore through the state along the Gulf Coast on its way into Georgia, North Carolina, and Tennessee. The severe flooding in those states stretched funding from the Federal Emergency Management Agency — and another storm could put further strain on the federal disaster agency.

It's already sparked political wrangling, with Donald Trump accusing Democrats of botching the recovery operations — and Democrats saying he's not telling the truth.

Milton reached peak wind speeds of nearly 180 mph on Monday, the National Hurricane Center said, and is expected to create "a life-threatening storm surge" along Florida's west coast near Tampa Bay.

Tampa Mayor Jane Castor told CNN's Kaitlan Collins on Monday that the hurricane is primed to be "literally catastrophic."

"And I can say without any dramatization whatsoever, if you choose to stay in one of those evacuation areas, you're going to die," Castor said.

Heavy rainfall beginning on Monday could result in moderate to major river-flooding risks, the center said.

The state's governor, Ron DeSantis, issued a state of emergency for 51 counties on Sunday, and millions of Floridians could soon be under orders to evacuate.

DeSantis also said Monday that debris from Helene must be cleared to avoid it being kicked up again by Milton, The Associated Press reported.

Helene caused more than 220 deaths, and Moody's Analytics estimated its damage could total between $20 billion and $34 billion.

The timing is problematic for federal agencies. The secretary of homeland security, Alejandro Mayorkas, told reporters last week that FEMA did not have enough funds to make it through hurricane season, which runs through the end of November, the AP reported.

President Joe Biden suggested last week Congress may need to pass a supplemental spending bill, though members are not expected to return to Washington until after the election.

In a letter to congressional leaders on Friday, Biden said FEMA had the resources it needed for the "immediate emergency response phase" in the wake of Helene but that the Small Business Administration's disaster-loan program was on the verge of running out of money.

And that was before Milton intensified in the Gulf Coast and threatened to deal Florida another crushing blow.
Helene becomes a political issue

With one month until Election Day, the federal response to Helene quickly became politicized.

Tesla CEO Elon Musk has frequently posted about the FEMA response to Helene in the days since the storm tore through the Southeast. The billionaire expressed anger in a Friday X post, saying that SpaceX engineers tried to offer help via helicopter but were declined by FEMA.

Transportation Secretary Pete Buttigieg said Monday that he spoke with Musk via phone, attributing some of what he said was the billionaire's confusion to "temporary flight restrictions," which the FAA imposed in the immediate aftermath of Helene to maintain safety in the skies. Buttigieg said he and Musk were able to expedite approval for pilots trying to bring Starlink equipment to areas hit by the storm. Musk followed up with an X post thanking the transportation secretary.

Trump, too, has stoked the partisan fire in recent days, directing much of his vitriol at Biden and Vice President Kamala Harris.

Trump accused Biden of ignoring calls from Georgia Gov. Brian Kemp. Kemp later disputed the claim and said he had spoken with Biden already and had initially missed a call from the president.

Trump later referenced "reports" he said he received that showed the federal government and Democratic governor of North Carolina were "going out of their way to not help people in Republican areas." As online rumors swirled, FEMA issued a response, combatting many of the claims, including any demographic bias in recovery efforts.

For their part, Biden said in a Sunday statement that he ordered another 500 active-duty troops to Western North Carolina to assist with recovery efforts, bringing the total to 1,500 troops, and Harris, meanwhile, visited the state over the weekend, praising first responders and promising ongoing federal support.

On Monday, NBC News reported that DeSantis was not taking calls from Harris about Helene's recovery efforts, citing an aide for the governor who said DeSantis was avoiding the vice president's calls because "they seemed political."

During a Monday news conference, however, DeSantis said he didn't know Harris had been trying to reach him, adding that he hadn't spoken with the Biden Administration because the federal government had already approved the state's requests, NBC reported.

The succession of weather events has also underscored the rising cost of home insurance in Florida, the most at-risk state for hurricanes, with premiums skyrocketing.

While Florida remains one of the most popular states to move to, Business Insider previously reported that the high cost of insurance — and homes — had caused some to reconsider their residency in the state.

Opinion: Michigan and Wisconsin are key for Harris. GOP groups want to help her win them.

Chris Brennan, USA TODAY
Sun, October 6, 2024 

The presidential election is 30 days away, and voters are starting to hear plenty of forceful sentiments from Republicans about Donald Trump.

It's not the kind of talk the former one-term Republican president wants out there about himself.

With the presidential race a dead heat and less than a month to go, every vote along the margins matters. Vice President Kamala Harris and Trump know that, and they are running very different campaigns. She's working feverishly to expand her reach while he stokes his base and hopes to energize low-propensity voters.

A key advantage for Harris: She has Republican allies doing some heavy lifting for her.
Republicans are lining up to help Kamala Harris beat Donald Trump

Vice President Kamala Harris speaks to supporters at the Redford Fire Department on Oct. 4, 2024 in Redford, Mich.

Consider Republican Voters Against Trump, which last week launched a series of ads and billboards, spending $15 million to feature former Trump voters explaining how his behavior has persuaded them to cast a ballot this year for Harris.

Then there is Haley Voters for Harris, courting center-right voters who previously backed former South Carolina Gov. Nikki Haley in this year's Republican primaries for president. That group last week started a seven-figure digital ad buy that presents Harris as a better option than Trump for voters concerned about the economy.

Opinion: Trump and Vance seem very upset with being fact-checked. Maybe lie less?

Harris is embracing the GOP support, appearing Thursday in Ripon, Wisconsin – the birthplace of the Republican Party, now in a critical swing state – with former U.S. Rep. Liz Cheney, a Republican who lost her Wyoming seat in 2022 due to her sustained criticism of Trump during and after his presidency.

Cheney's father, former Vice President Dick Cheney, is also backing Harris over Trump.

Trump, on the other hand, has been on a binge of ego-boosting rallies, where he rambles on for more than an hour at a time about a litany of grievances in front of supporters who are already planning to vote for him.

Harris is aiming for something new in crossover support. Trump is offering the same-old same old.

A look at the voting math in swing states

Republican presidential candidate Nikki Haley

The math tells a tantalizing tale in the "blue wall" swing states of Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin.

Haley won more than 297,000 votes in Michigan's Feb. 27 Republican primary, eight days before she dropped out of the race. In the last presidential election, Joe Biden defeated Trump in that state by 154,188 votes.

Haley took nearly 77,000 votes in Wisconsin's Republican primary in April, a month after she had dropped out of the race. Biden beat Trump there by 20,682 votes four years ago.

And Haley received nearly 159,000 votes in Pennsylvania's April 23 Republican primary, seven weeks after she left the race. Biden defeated Trump in that state in 2020 by 80,555 votes.

Republicans were backing Haley before and especially after her bid was over. Does it really matter now that Haley endorsed Trump in July, after questioning in January whether he is "mentally fit" to be president again?

In an incredibly tight race, Haley's supporters in those three states could swing this for Harris.

The Republican must know this, because her former presidential campaign had a law firm send Haley Voters for Harris a "cease and desist" letter on July 23 – a week after she endorsed Trump at the Republican National Convention – demanding that the group not use her name.

Haley Voters for Harris responded by saying its rights to engage with her supporters "will not be suppressed."
What's the goal of these groups? Keep Trump away.

Craig Snyder, national director for Haley Voters for Harris, told me the group's ad is aimed at center-right voters "pretty much anywhere they go on the internet" – including YouTube, Facebook, streaming apps like HBO Max and gaming platforms.

It's geographically targeting 1.5 million voters in Pennsylvania, 600,000 in Michigan and 400,000 in Wisconsin.

Opinion: New Jan. 6 court filing shouldn't scare voters. Trump would never do that again!

Snyder, a longtime Republican, said his group is making the "affirmative case for Harris, in terms of her record and her policy proposals, and why we think that those should not be scary to center-right voters."

Part of the pitch is that Republicans stand a good chance of winning back control of the U.S. Senate in November, and that the U.S. Supreme Court has a six-to-three conservative majority.

"Neither party is going to end up with complete control of our government," Snyder said. "There's too many firewalls. There's too many checks and balances."

Republican Voters Against Trump, Snyder said, is working toward the same goal but focused more on defining the former president "as a threat to democracy," in part due to his behavior before, during and after the insurrection at the U.S. Capitol on Jan. 6, 2021.

Opinion alerts: Get columns from your favorite columnists + expert analysis on top issues, delivered straight to your device through the USA TODAY app. Don't have the app? Download it for free from your app store.

Campaign finance reports filed by both groups – Haley Voters for Harris raises money as PivotPAC while Republican Voters Against Trump goes by Republican Accountability PAC – show significant support from establishment Democrats and political action committees and nonprofits that lean that way, even if the potential audiences for the ads don't.

Snyder didn't dispute that but said his group's small-dollar donations come from people identifying as Republican from more than 40 states.

"So it's very much a bipartisan coalition of people who are working together." he said
Meanwhile, Trump is still very much Trump

Republican presidential nominee and former U.S. President Donald Trump reacts at a rally in Las Vegas, Nevada, U.S. September 13, 2024. REUTERS/Piroschka Van de Wouw

Here's another thing both groups have working for them – Trump just keeps acting like Trump. If his behavior drives center-right voters to Harris, all the better for the never-Trumpers.

Trump on Friday posted a long screed on his social media site Truth Social excoriating Cheney and her father for backing Harris, mocking her as "a low IQ War Hawk" and claiming that both are "suffering gravely from Trump Derangement Syndrome."

He also threw a social media tantrum Wednesday after a prosecutor's brief was unsealed in his federal criminal case tied to the Jan. 6 insurrection that shed new and shocking light on his behavior. His freak-out was the standard stuff – calling the filing an "ILLEGAL ACTION" in a "Witch Hunt" to harm him and his reelection campaign.

Trump's fixation on grievance isn't doing much to expand his base. But building on a base requires discipline and focus, not exactly attributes that come to mind when thinking about Trump these days.

It looks like the best thing that could happen for Republican Voters Against Trump and Haley Voters for Harris – and for Harris herself – is for Trump to just keep on being Trump for the next 30 days.

Follow USA TODAY elections columnist Chris Brennan on X, formerly known as Twitter: @ByChrisBrennan

You can read diverse opinions from our USA TODAY columnists and other writers on the Opinion front page, on X, formerly Twitter, @usatodayopinion and in our Opinion newsletter.

This article originally appeared on USA TODAY: Opinion: Harris' new ally? Former Trump voters in key swing states

Will white women abandon Republicans and vote for Kamala Harris?

Carter Sherman

THE GUARDIAN
Tue 8 October 2024

Demonstrators march during the fourth annual Women’s March in Washington DC on 18 January 2020.Photograph: Roberto Schmidt/AFP/Getty Images

White women voters have been the backbone of the GOP for decades – but polls indicate their support for the party may erode this November, thanks to younger white women who are moving left at breakneck speed.

In the weeks after the 2016 presidential election, after Donald Trump stunned the world by defeating Hillary Clinton, media outlets seized on white women to explain his shock win. Forty-seven per cent of white women voted for Trump, while 45% backed Clinton, according to an analysis of validated voter files by the Pew Research Center.

Trump’s success with white women highlighted a longstanding truth: this group votes for Republicans. Over the last 72 years, a plurality of white women have voted for the Democratic candidate in only two presidential elections – in 1964, when Lyndon Johnson won 44 states, and in 1996, when Bill Clinton ran in a three-way race. Trump’s lead with white women even grew in 2020, when 53% supported him. In contrast, 95% of Black women voted for Joe Biden in 2020, along with 61% of Hispanic women, Pew found.


But quite a bit has changed since 2020 – especially for women. The US supreme court overturned Roe v Wade in 2022, transforming abortion rights into a major election issue. Kamala Harris took over as the Democratic candidate from Joe Biden, becoming the first woman of color to secure a major-party nomination for president. All this raises the question: will 2024 be the year that white women, who make up almost 40% of the national electorate, finally join women of color in supporting the Democrats?

Well, not necessarily. But the gap very well may shrink.

There are signs that younger white women are peeling off from the GOP – a trend that is linked to a steady drift by all young women to the left.

“Young women of color and young white women, in my research, are pretty uniformly liberal and feminist,” said Melissa Deckman, CEO of the Public Religion Research Institute and author of the recent book The Politics of Gen Z: How the Youngest Voters Will Shape Our Democracy. “I think Harris’s selection as the nominee now – as opposed to Biden – has really further made them enthusiastic about voting. So I strongly suspect that young, white women voters are going to defy the longer-term trend of white women in general voting for Republicans.”

Young women are increasingly queer, increasingly secular and getting married later in life – all characteristics that tend to be linked with liberalism and support for the Democratic party. (People who identify as liberal are very likely to be Democrats, though the inverse is not necessarily true – not all Democrats identify as liberal.)Interactive

Related: Young women are the most progressive group in American history. Young men are checked out

Between 2011 and 2024, liberal identification among white women rose by 6%, according to a Gallup analysis shared with the Guardian. Such identification also rose by 6% among Black women, but fell by 2% among Hispanic women.

Gen Z is the most diverse generation of Americans yet, but Gallup research suggests that doesn’t explain young women’s leftward drift. Between 2017 and 2024, 41% of white women between the ages of 18 and 29 identified as liberals – 2 percentage points more than their peers of color.

Young women are also unusually involved in politics. Women have long outvoted men, but in 2020, 60% of 18- to 29-year-old white women voted – more than any other group of youth voters, according to an analysis of AP VoteCast data by the Center for Information & Research on Civic Learning and Engagement. Fifty-five per cent voted for Biden.

Trump’s 2016 victory may have something to do with these trends. Raised by Democratic-leaning independents, Chloe Fowler said Trump’s election was a critical inflection point in her political evolution. She was a sophomore in high school when Trump won; the day after, somebody in her school hallway shouted gleefully: “Grab ’em by the pussy!”

“Things like that stick with us,” recalled Fowler, who is white. A few months later, her mom took her to the Women’s March in Omaha, Nebraska. “That was a very pivotal moment for me, honestly – doing a bunch of chants with her and wearing the pink cat ear hats.”

Fowler is now the vice-president of Nebraska Young Democrats. The 23-year-old has been phone-banking furiously in her home district – Nebraska’s second congressional district, which may end up deciding whether Trump or Harris becomes president.
‘Why is this race so close?’

A September 19th News/SurveyMonkey poll recently found that white women narrowly prefer Harris to Trump, 42% to 40%, with a 1% margin of error. The remaining 8% can make or break the election, of course. The gender gap is larger: compared with white men, white women prefer Harris by a 6-point margin.

A majority of Black women support Harris, that poll found, as do pluralities of Hispanic and Asian American women.

Jane Junn, a political science professor at the University of Southern California, says what is often misunderstood as a “gender gap” between male and female voters is really a race gap. While women as a whole may end up voting for Harris – a September New York Times/Siena poll showed that 54% of women planned to vote for Harris, compared with 40% of men – white women, Junn predicted, will remain Republicans in 2024. “If all of a sudden, the white women were like: ‘Oh, my God, I’m burning my bra and my Barbie shoes and my long fingernails and all the plastic sprays I put into my body’ – we’re not seeing that,” Junn said. “Why is this race so close? It’s so close because these groups remain fairly consistent in their partisan loyalty.”Interactive

Polling from Galvanize Action, an organization that seeks to mobilize moderate women – especially in the critical “blue wall” states of Pennsylvania, Wisconsin and Michigan – has found the race in a dead heat among moderate white women, who are split 43% to 44% in favor of the former president. These women, who Galvanize Action defines as not ideologically entrenched as Democrats or Republicans, account for more than 5 million voters in those three states.

Trump has the edge when it comes to these women’s top issues of the economy and immigration, but the women polled by Galvanize Action trust Harris more on democracy and reproductive freedom.

“Even among women who say that economy or democracy is their No 1 issue, a good segment of those people also say: ‘I’m not going to vote for anyone that won’t protect abortion,’” said Jackie Payne, Galvanize Action’s executive director and founder.

Related: Where will abortion be on the ballot in the 2024 US election?

Democrats are hoping that abortion rights-related ballot measures – which voters will decide on in the battlegrounds of Arizona, Nevada and Nebraska’s second congressional district – will spur turnout among their base. However, white women may in effect vote split-ticket, simultaneously voting for a pro-abortion rights measure and for Republicans. More than half of white women voted for Ohio’s 2023 abortion-related ballot measure – but more than 60% of white women supported Mike DeWine, the Republican governor who signed a six-week abortion ban into law, in 2022, just months after Roe fell.

“This is going to be all about turnout. This is going to be a very, very close election,” said Debbie Walsh, director of the Center for American Women and Politics at Rutgers. “The Democratic party counts on women. They count particularly on Black women to turn out. Will they be more energized?”

Why Chinese workers are under attack from militants in Afghanistan and Pakistan

Arpan Rai

THE  INDEPENDENT
Mon 7 October 2024 


Why Chinese workers are under attack from militants in Afghanistan and Pakistan


As Chinese workers and development projects increasingly come under attack in Pakistan, security experts say separatist militants see the foreign presence as a threat to local resources and their grip on the restive South West.

Two Chinese nationals were killed in a bombing near the international airport of the southern Pakistani city of Karachi on Sunday. The attack, which took place around 11pm outside Pakistan’s Jinnah International Airport, targeted a van of Chinese nationals, just a week before the high-level Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO).

Shortly after, separatist militant group, Baloch Liberation Army (BLA), from Pakistan’s troubled southwestern Balochistan province claimed responsibility, stating that it used a vehicle-borne improvised explosive device targeting “a high-level convoy of Chinese engineers and investors”.


China has supported its smaller Asian allies Pakistan and Afghanistan with financial and infrastructure aid for decades and invested significantly in its defence and technology. But its resources are now prime targets for dozens of terrorist groups in the region, experts said.

“Sunday night’s attack is part of a larger pattern of attacks by Baloch separatist militants and Pakistani Taliban factions targeting Chinese nationals and interests in Pakistan,” said security analyst Ihsanullah Tipu Mehsud.

Security officials work on the site of an explosion that caused injures and destroyed vehicles outside the Karachi airport, Pakistan, Monday, 7 Oct 2024 (Copyright 2024 The Associated Press. All rights reserved.)

This is one of the biggest terrorist attacks since 2018 targeting Chinese workers in Pakistan, Mr Mehsud told The Independent, including the November 2018 attack on Karachi Chinese Consulate which killed four, July 2021’s Dasu suicide attack which killed nine Chinese nationals, BLA’s attack on the Pakistan Stock Exchange in June 2020, and their suicide attack in April 2023 which killed three Chinese tutors.

This is the second major attack on Chinese nationals. Earlier in March, a suicide car bombing killed five Chinese workers in Pakistan’s Shangla district. The Chinese engineers, who were employed on the site of a hydropower project in northwestern Khyber Pakhtunkhwa province bordering Afghanistan, were on their way to the Dasu Dam In Afghanistan. The December 2022 attack targeted Kabul’s China Town and wounded five Chinese nationals in a hotel where Beijing’s investors were staying.

“The Baloch militants’ propaganda is heavily focused on Chinese presence in Balochistan and they consider it as a threat to their influence and resources. They believe China’s financial and technical assistance to Pakistan strengthens the government’s grip on the region, undermining their activities and influence,” said Mr Mehsud, who is also the co-founder of The Khorasan Diary, a digital news and research platform specialising in tracking and analysing militancy in the region.

This perception fuels their attacks on Chinese nationals, investments, and projects, he added.

A car is seen damaged at the site of an explosion that caused injures and destroyed vehicles outside the Karachi airport, Pakistan, Monday, 7 Oct 2024 (Copyright 2024 The Associated Press. All rights reserved.)

“This is not merely an attack but a larger security and intelligence failure by Pakistan in protecting Chinese nationals, mostly engineers working on major projects,” said Abdullah Khan, a senior defence analyst and managing director of the Islamabad-based Pakistan Institute for Conflict and Security Studies.

“They also show something critical: most of the attacks are moving targets and vehicles in transit carrying workers,” he said, adding that it meant there was obviously a security breach.

The BLA seeks independence for the province of Balochistan, located in Pakistan’s southwest and bordering on Afghanistan and Iran. BLA specifically targets Chinese interests, in particular the strategic port of Gwadar on the Arabian Sea, accusing Beijing of helping Islamabad exploit the province.

Security issues have affected China’s billions of planned investments, including under China-Pakistan Economic Corridor which is part of Chinese president Xi Jinping’s Belt and Road.

In August prime minister Shehbaz Sharif said the attacks by separatist militants were aimed at stopping development projects that form part of the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC). “The terrorists want to stop CPEC and development projects,” he said in a televised address to cabinet, adding that the militants also wanted to drive a wedge between Islamabad and Beijing.

Security officials stand guard at the site of an explosion that caused injures and destroyed vehicles outside the Karachi airport, Pakistan, Monday, 7 Oct 2024 (Copyright 2024 The Associated Press. All rights reserved.)

But the predictable civilian losses will not deter China from sending its nationals to the region, Mr Khan added, stating that Mr Xi visited Pakistan in April 2015 for the massive CPEC project investment when the country was facing its worst surge in terrorism.

“The Chinese are very much aware that this is a conflict zone where they are pursuing these projects because when they had started the CPEC in Pakistan in 2015, that was the time Pakistan was facing the highest degree of terrorism in the country with tremendous terrorist attacks in 2014,” Mr Khan said.

“Their investment projects are development projects in Pakistan which they will continue despite these challenges,” he said.

Pakistan is preparing to host the SCO summit in capital Islamabad, which was roiled by protests and clashes over the weekend between police and supporters of jailed former prime minister Imran Khan. High-level Chinese representation and the first visit by an Indian foreign minister in a decade are expected at the summit next week, which authorities have vowed to secure.


A Pakistani separatist group claims bombing that killed 2 Chinese near Karachi airport

ADIL JAWAD and MUNIR AHMED

AP
Mon 7 October 2024

KARACHI, Pakistan (AP) — A Pakistani separatist group claimed responsibility for a late-night bombing that targeted a convoy with Chinese nationals outside the country's largest airport, killing two workers from China and wounding eight people, officials and the insurgent group said Monday.

The attack by the Baloch Liberation Army outside the airport in the southern port city of Karachi was the latest deadly assault on the Chinese in Pakistan and came a week before Islamabad is to host a summit of the Shanghai Cooperation Organization, a security grouping founded by China and Russia to counter Western alliances.

The explosion, which the BLA said was the work of a suicide bomber, also raised questions about the ability of Pakistani forces to secure high-profile events or foreigners in the country. Among the wounded were also police officers who were escorting the Chinese convoy when the attack happened.

Pakistani news channels broadcast videos of flames engulfing cars and a thick column of smoke rising from the scene. Troops and police cordoned off the area. On Monday, counterterrorism officials were investigating how the attacker reached Karachi, Pakistan's largest city.

The spokesman for the separatist group, Junaid Baloch, said Monday that one of their suicide bombers targeted the convoy of Chinese engineers and investors as they left the airport. The Baloch Liberation Army is mainly based in the restive southwestern Balochistan province but it has also attacked foreigners and security forces in other parts of Pakistan in recent years.

The Chinese Embassy in Islamabad said Chinese staffers working at the Port Qasim Electric Power Company — a coal-powered power plant that's a joint China-Pakistan venture — were in the convoy when it came under attack around 11 p.m. on Sunday. Two Chinese nationals were killed and one was wounded, the embassy said and added, without elaborating, that there were also Pakistani casualties.

Pakistani security officials say a police bomb disposal unit in Sindh province, where Karachi is the capital, had cleared the road outside the airport ahead of the movement of the Chinese convoy, which was being escorted by police and security officials in several vehicles.

Pakistan's Ministry of Foreign Affairs denounced the bombing, saying it was a “heinous terrorist attack near Karachi airport.”

Pakistan's Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif said he was shocked and saddened, describing the attackers as “enemies of Pakistan” and promising the perpetrators would be punished.

“I strongly condemn this heinous act and offer my heartfelt condolences to the Chinese leadership & the people of China, particularly the families of the victims,” he wrote on the social media platform X.

“Pakistan stands committed to safeguarding our Chinese friends," he added. "We will leave no stone unturned to ensure their security & well-being.”

Later, Sharif met with the Chinese Ambassador Jiang Zaidong to assure him that he would personally supervise the investigation into the attack.

Earlier, Interior Minister Mohsin Naqvi briefed Zaidong about the investigations.

Authorities estimate that the BLA, which Pakistan and the United States have designated a terrorist organization, has around 3,000 fighters. It regularly targets Pakistani security forces but has also in the past attacked Chinese nationals.

According to Abdullah Khan, a senior defense analyst and managing director of the Islamabad-based Pakistan Institute for Conflict and Security Studies, BLA has preferred attacks on “moving targets” but its ability to launch high-profile attacks has increased in recent years.

More BLA attacks around the Shanghai Cooperation Organization summit next week cannot be ruled out, Khan told The Associated Press.

Pakistan hosts thousands of Chinese workers as part of Beijing’s multibillion-dollar Belt and Road Initiative, which is building major infrastructure projects.

The outlawed BLA has long waged an insurgency seeking independence and has repeatedly warned against any Chinese working in Balochistan.

The Sunday night attack followed deadly attacks in August that killed more than 50 people in Balochistan. Sharif at the time said the attackers sought to harm Chinese-funded development projects.

The oil- and mineral-rich Balochistan is Pakistan’s largest but also least populated province. It is also a hub for the country’s ethnic Baloch minority whose members say they face discrimination and exploitation by the central government. Along with separatist groups, Islamic militants also operate in the province.

In March, in northwestern Pakistan, a suicide bombing killed five Chinese engineers and their Pakistani driver as they headed to the Dasu Dam, the country's biggest hydropower project. In April, five Japanese workers were unharmed when a suicide bomber targeted their van as they were on their wat to a factory in Karachi. One bystander was killed.

In July 2021, at least nine Chinese nationals working on a dam and four Pakistanis were killed when a suicide bomber targeted their bus in northwestern Pakistan. Local authorities first said it was a road accident but Beijing insisted it was a bombing, which Islamabad later confirmed.

In 2022, three Chinese teachers and their Pakistani driver were killed when an explosion ripped through their van at the University of Karachi campus.

___

Ahmed reported from Islamabad. Associated Press writer Ken Moritsugu and AP researcher Yu Bing in Beijing contributed to this report.


Chinese workers targeted in deadly Pakistan airport suicide blast

Sophia Saifi and Simone McCarthy, CNN
Mon 7 October 2024 

Two Chinese nationals were killed and one was injured in a suicide attack near Karachi’s international airport Sunday evening, China’s embassy in Pakistan said Monday, marking the latest in a string of violence against China’s personnel and investments in the country in recent years.

At least seven others were injured, according to rescue workers at the scene, where a massive blast set cars ablaze and was heard throughout the city.

The Baloch Liberation Army (BLA) separatist group claimed responsibility in a statement and said the blast was a suicide attack targeting a convoy of Chinese engineers and investors leaving Jinnah International Airport, Pakistan’s largest and busiest aviation hub. The Chinese embassy said the attack targeted a convoy carrying Chinese staff of an electric power company.

A senior Pakistani security official confirmed to CNN that it was a suicide attack and said authorities were investigating the background of the bomber.

Pakistan’s Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif “strongly condemned” the incident and offered “heartfelt condolences to the Chinese leadership [and] the people of China,” in a statement posted on X.

“Pakistan stands committed to safeguarding our Chinese friends. We will leave no stone unturned to ensure their security [and] well-being,” he wrote.

A vehicle is seen on fire at the site of the explosion outside the Karachi airport. - Mohammad Farooq/AP

The incident follows a spate of terror attacks earlier this year that Pakistan’s government said were aimed at disrupting its close ties with Beijing. It also comes days before Islamabad is set to host a meeting of heads of government from the Shanghai Cooperation Organization, a security grouping spearheaded by China and Russia.

Pakistan is a strategic ally of China and a key link in Chinese leader Xi Jinping’s ambitious Belt and Road infrastructure initiative. Projects under the program’s umbrella have faced mounting security challenges, including as Pakistan grapples with a surge in violence from militant and terrorist groups in recent years.

In its statement Monday, China’s embassy called on Pakistan to “take all necessary measures to protect the safety of Chinese citizens, institutions and projects in Pakistan.”

China’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs has yet to comment. Monday marks the last day of China’s weeklong national day holiday.

Security officials on Monday examined the site the Sunday night blast. - Fareed Khan/AP

Beijing has invested tens of billions of dollars in the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC), a flagship Belt and Road project launched in 2015 that links China’s western Xinjiang region to Pakistan’s Gwadar port on the Arabian Sea with a network of roads, railways, pipelines and power plants.

But Chinese-funded projects have sparked resentment from locals in parts of Pakistan, who say they have benefited little from the developments. The anti-China sentiment is particularly strong among separatist groups in Balochistan.

The BLA, which claimed responsibility for Sunday’s attack, is the most prominent of several separatist groups in the restive southwest province.

Earlier this year, the BLA claimed responsibility for assaults on a Pakistani naval air base and a government complex outside the Chinese-funded strategic port of Gwadar.

In a separate incident in March, five Chinese workers and their local driver were killed in a suicide blast in northwest Pakistan, when a bomber rammed a vehicle into the workers’ convoy as it traveled from the capital to the Dasu dam, the country’s largest hydropower project.

Pakistan’s military said those attacks were aimed at destabilizing the country’s internal security and its relationship with China. They followed other violent incidents in recent years targeting Chinese nationals and projects.

In November 2018, the BLA claimed responsibility for an attack on the Chinese consulate in Karachi, which killed four people. Six months later, a separatist group attacked a luxury hotel in Gwadar, often used by Chinese nationals working at the port. In June 2020, the BLA said it was responsible for another deadly attack on the Pakistan Stock Exchange, in which a Chinese-led consortium owns a 40% stake.

In August last year, BLA militants opened fire on a Pakistani military convoy in Gwadar as it was escorting a delegation of Chinese nationals to a construction project. Two militants were killed and no harm was caused to any military personnel or civilians, according to the Pakistani military.

This story has been updated with additional information. CNN’s Azaz Syed and Saleem Mehsud in Islamabad contributed reporting.


Pakistan Orders Inquiry as Two Chinese Killed in Militant Attack

Ismail Dilawar
Mon 7 October 2024



(Bloomberg) -- Pakistan is investigating an attack in the port city of Karachi that killed two Chinese citizens on Sunday, as the South Asian nation struggles to curb rising militancy targeting interests of its key economic partner.

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The militants targeted a security convoy of Chinese workers working at the Port Qasim Electric Power Co. near Karachi’s airport, Chinese embassy in Pakistan said in a statement. Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif condemned the attack and vowed to protect Chinese nationals, according to a statement by the Prime Minister’s Office on Monday.

Pakistani authorities are trying to protect about 2,500 Chinese nationals working on different projects from roads to power under the multi-billion dollar China-Pakistan Economic Corridor. The efforts are failing though. Militant attacks increased by 47% to 717 this year to September and killed 834 people in Pakistan, according to the data compiled by Pakistan Institute for Conflict and Security Studies.

Five Chinese nationals working at a power project in Pakistan’s northwest region were killed in an attack in March that Islamabad blamed on Tehreek-i-Taliban Pakistan, an offshoot of Afghanistan’s Taliban group. Baloch Liberation Army, a group of militants fighting security forces, claimed responsibility for the latest attack, Dawn newspaper reported,

China asked Pakistani authorities to probe the attack and protect its citizens and projects, its embassy said in a statement.

The attack comes a week before Pakistan hosts the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation Summit in Islamabad. The China-led SCO is a Eurasian grouping of countries that includes Russia, Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan. India’s External Affairs Minister Subrahmanyam Jaishankar will attend summit, the first visit to Pakistan by an Indian foreign minister since 2015.

These attacks are also hurting efforts by the Sharif government to revive an economy with the help of the International Monetary Fund’s three-year $7 billion loan secured last month.

Sharif has said China along with Saudi Arabia and the UAE were key in rolling over loans and help Pakistan secure the IMF loan. It also comes at a time Pakistan is looking to inject some fresh momentum to projects under China’s Belt and Road Initiative.

--With assistance from Kamran Haider.

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