UK Government backs police action against shows of support for Hezbollah

Ellie Ng, PA
Sun, October 6, 2024

The Government has backed police to take action against protesters who show support for Hezbollah, after one man was arrested for allegedly shouting support for the banned organisation during a march in central London.

Tens of thousands of pro-Palestinian demonstrators marched through the capital on Saturday, meeting counter-protests at several points on their route.

The Metropolitan Police arrested two people on suspicion of supporting a proscribed organisation, with one man held after allegedly shouting support for Hezbollah near a pro-Israel counter-demonstration, according to the force.

Science and Technology Secretary Peter Kyle said the police have ‘our full support’ to take action against people carrying signs suggesting support for Hezbollah (Jordan Pettitt/PA)


Another man was arrested on suspicion of wearing or displaying an article indicating support for Hamas, which is also a proscribed organisation, after he was allegedly spotted wearing a parachute, the Met said.

Proscription is the banning of an organisation based on an assessment that it commits or participates in, prepares for, promotes or encourages, or is otherwise concerned in terrorism, according to the Home Office.

It is a crime in the UK to belong to, express support, invite support for or arrange a meeting to back any proscribed organisation.

Images of protesters holding placards that read “I love Hezbollah” have circulated online, and police said they are working to identify those involved.

Counter pro-Israeli demonstrations took place in London on Saturday (Ben Bauer/PA)

In an update on Sunday afternoon, the Met said a “number of further potential offences have come to light on social media” and released a series of images in an appeal for the public’s help to identify people.

Science and Technology Secretary Peter Kyle said the police have “our full support” should they take action against people carrying signs suggesting support for Hezbollah.

Speaking to the BBC’s Sunday With Laura Kuenssberg programme, he said: “Yesterday in the protests there was a lot of peaceful protest but there were people who were carrying signs as the one that you have just described.

“That is a criminal act, supporting a proscribed terrorist organisation such as Hezbollah is a criminal act.”


He added: “The Home Secretary, the Prime Minister said very clearly yesterday that the police have our full support should they take action against people carrying signs like that.”

On Saturday, Home Secretary Yvette Cooper posted to X: “Hezbollah is a proscribed terrorist organisation. Promoting it in Britain is a criminal offence.

“Extremism has no place on Britain’s streets. The police have our support in pursuing those breaking the law today.”

Police made 17 arrests in total around the demonstrations in London on Saturday, as part of a “significant” policing operation in place across the capital in response to planned protest and memorial events marking the anniversary of the October 7 attacks in Israel.

There were eight arrests on suspicion of public order offences, four of which were allegedly racially aggravated.

Three people were arrested on suspicion of assaulting an emergency worker, three arrested on suspicion of common assault and one person was arrested on suspicion of breaching a Public Order Act condition.

Tess Yasser, of the Palestinian Youth Movement, told the PA news agency on Saturday: “We’re here today as part of the international day of action that the Palestinian people have called for to demand a full arms embargo.

“We’re commemorating one year of genocide, one year of resistance. We’ve seen that the genocide has been a form of collective punishment on the people of Gaza who dare to resist a 17-year siege on them which has been inflicted by Israel.

People took part in a silent funeral procession through Edinburgh city centre as part of the Scottish National Demonstration for Palestine on Saturday (Lesley Martin/PA)

“They will continue to resist until the genocide is over and they see the full liberation of their lands and their people.”

Pro-Palestinian demonstrators also took to the streets in Edinburgh and Dublin on Saturday.

On Sunday afternoon, a memorial event will be held in London’s Hyde Park, organised by the Board of Deputies of British Jews, the Jewish Leadership Council and other groups.

Human rights NGOs say social media platforms continue to censor pro-Palestine content

Anna Desmarais
Mon 7 October 2024 


Human rights NGOs say social media platforms continue to censor pro-Palestine content


Human rights NGOs say little progress has been made to stop the digital censorship of pro-Palestine voices on social media networks, one year into the escalation of the Israel-Hamas conflict.

The war broke out last year when Palestinian militant group Hamas launched an attack in southern Israel where they took 250 people hostage and killed 1,200.

Israel responded with air strikes and by sending ground troops to the Gaza Strip, with the war killing around 42,000 Palestinians, according to the Gaza health ministry.

Since the October 7 attack, the Palestinian Observatory of Digital Rights Violations has recorded more than 1,350 instances of online censorship from major platforms through an open call on their website through July 1, 2024, with most of the reports related to Meta, TikTok, X, and Youtube.

The sample includes stories of suspensions, content takedowns, and account restrictions.

Related

One year on: How Hamas' attack on Israel triggered a regional conflict in the Middle East

The Arab Center for the Advancement of Social Media (7amleh) interpreted these results in a September report as a “deliberate decision” to “aggressively over-moderat(e) Palestine-related content”.

“When online platforms allow hate speech and incitement on their platforms, they could be guilty of helping spread content that dehumanises Palestinians and justifies their collective punishments,” the report reads.

Pro-Israeli groups have, however, criticised what they say are attempts to roll back social media restrictions on antisemitism.
How content or accounts get removed

The NGO Human Rights Watch previously documented how users had their content blocked or removed by Meta in a report released last December.

Users would first have a single post, story or comment that referenced Palestine reviewed then removed with little to no explanation pointing to a specific policy breach, according to Rasha Younes, a senior researcher with Human Rights Watch.

Then, Younes said they heard from users who had their accounts restricted from commenting on other pro-Palestine content or disabled for anywhere from 24 hours to three months.

There are others who described being “shadowbanned,” the idea that their posts were less visible to other users on both Instagram and Facebook, Younes continued.

Related

Rallies held across Europe ahead of Hamas-Israel war anniversary

Younes said users who tried to challenge these restrictions found the “we made a mistake?” button disabled, which she believes “violates Meta’s own policies”.

For those that are blocked, Younes said they “might not have any place to go” to express their political activism or lived reality during the conflict.

Both HRW and 7amleh’s reports rely on direct user experiences, but researchers from both groups want to push social media companies like Meta to release data about which posts are being blocked by automatic moderation so they can do more in-depth research.

“What we’re seeing is people who work in these companies, they want these changes … but unfortunately they are not the decision-makers, so they can’t really change anything,” Taysir Mathlouthi, 7amleh’s EU Advocacy Officer, told Euronews Next.
Tech companies ‘refining their approach’ during the conflict

Meta and TikTok declined to answer any direct questions about their content moderation policies and instead referred Euronews Next to recent reports about their responses.

In Meta’s report from September, the company said they’ve been refining their approach to “reflect the changing dynamics” of the humanitarian crisis in Gaza and hostage-taking by Hamas.

But, the company admitted that some of their policy decisions, like lowering thresholds for automated enforcement, “inadvertently limit(s) discussion of critical world events”.

A Meta spokesperson told Euronews last year, however, that the HRW report “ignores the realities of enforcing our policies globally during a fast-moving, highly polarised and intense conflict,” adding that “the implication that we deliberately and systemically suppress a particular voice is false”.

Related
Meta’s social media platforms are systemically censoring pro-Palestine content, NGO finds

For TikTok, the company said in an October 2 report they’ve taken down 4.7 million videos and suspended 300,000 livestreams between October 7, 2023 and September 15, 2024, for either promoting Hamas, hate speech or misinformation.

Earlier this year, the company said they added “Zionist” content to their hate speech policy “when it is used … [as a] proxy with Jewish or Israeli identity”.

“This policy was implemented early this year after observing a rise in how the word was increasingly used in a hateful way,” TikTok said.

Euronews Next reached out to YouTube and X but did not receive an immediate reply.
EU urged to ‘pressure’ social media companies

There’s a responsibility that the EU needs to take on as well, even if the conflict isn’t directly within their borders, according to 7amleh’s Mathlouthi.

The European Commission recently passed the Digital Services Act (DSA) which introduced new mechanisms to fight illegal online content, according to a description of the new law.

However, Mathlouthi said there’s no real definition of what the law considers “incitement or harmful content,” which makes it difficult to put pressure on these big companies through the act.

WAIT, WHAT?!

NSW premier says police should be able to ban pro-Palestine protests because they are too expensive

Catie McLeod
Mon 7 October 2024 

 Guardian Australia

Protesters in Hyde Park on Sunday 6 October. NSW premier Chris Minns says weekly rallies are too expensive for police.Photograph: Don Arnold/Getty Images


The New South Wales premier, Chris Minns, says policing pro-Palestine protests has cost the state $5m this year and the force should be able to shut them down because of the “huge drain on the public purse”.

Minns has ordered a review of police resources used at the protests, which have taken place in Sydney’s CBD every weekend for the past year following the Hamas attacks on 7 October and Israel’s subsequent strikes on Gaza.

But critics on Tuesday said the premier was continuing to “disregard human rights and civil liberties” and the state was trying to “criminalise protesters”.

Minns told 2GB radio that police resources were “stretched” and he believed taxpayers would want the force to deal with crime instead of patrolling pro-Palestine rallies.

“When you’ve got someone putting in an application every seven days for 51 weeks to march through Sydney streets, this is costing millions of dollars, and I think taxpayers should be in a position to be able to say, we would prefer that money spent on roadside breath testing, domestic violence investigations [and] knife crimes,” the premier said.

“It’s my view that police should be able to be in a position to deny a request for a march due to stretched police resourcing.”

NSW police had a significant presence at Sunday’s pro-Palestine protest in Hyde Park and a vigil on Monday after last week taking supreme court action to try to stop the demonstrations.

Minns had argued the Sunday rally and the candlelight vigil on Monday should not go ahead.

Amal Naser and Josh Lees from the Palestine Action Group, which organises the weekly rallies, accused Minns and “others in the political and media establishment” of participating in a “racist scare campaign”.

“Over the weekend we saw thousands of police deployed in an outrageous and racist law and order campaign which sought to criminalise protesters who have been peacefully rallying for 12 months,” they said in a statement on Tuesday.

“The government is terrified that dissent to Israel’s genocide has never been so large and want to repress us so we cannot utilise the masses and people power to stop this genocide.

“We remind you, that after 7 October [2023] NSW premier Chris Minns declared that we will never march the streets. We defied this and shut down the streets for 52 consecutive weeks.”

The Israeli government maintains its military operations are a legitimate response to the Hamas attacks and has dismissed allegations it is committing genocide as “false” and “outrageous”.

NSW police have charged two men for allegedly displaying Nazi symbols at Sunday’s rally but said overall they were pleased with the behaviour of the crowd – which they estimated at 10,000 people.

In NSW, the police commissioner must approve a permit known as a “form 1” or a “notice of intention to hold a public assembly” lodged by organisers for a protest to be considered lawful.

Minns on Tuesday said police should be able to deny a form 1 application based on the cost to the force of policing the event.

The permit system allows organisers to disobey laws against blocking traffic, for example. Last week, the NSW Council of Civil Liberties president, Lydia Shelly, said it was an “international embarrassment” that “lent itself to litigation”.

Shelly on Tuesday said charging people to stage protests would create a “two-tiered” system where only the wealthy could demonstrate.

“Singling out protests as a financial burden completely flies in the face of government obligations under human rights laws and protections for ordinary citizens,” she said.

“Just when you think that things couldn’t be worse in relation to a premier that seems to completely disregard human rights and civil liberties in this state, an idea like this pops up.”

Minns said the government had to “make decisions about where police are spending their funds”.

“If this is taking place every single weekend, it’s coming at the expense of some other law enforcement across the state,” he said.

“If you’re putting on a rock concert on the weekend … you would have to pay NSW police in order to keep the public safe.”

NSW police provides most policing services free of charge but says some services “go beyond these responsibilities” so it charges clients a fee.

The system, known as user-pays policing, requires major sporting events, festivals and concerts to pay themselves for police resources.

Related: Guardian Essential poll: more than half of Australians approve of Albanese government’s response to Israel-Gaza war

NSW police have previously been accused of “price gouging” and operating a “rort” that threatened the viability of music festivals because they charged thousands of dollars more than their counterparts in other states to patrol events.

The state opposition leader, Mark Speakman, said the Minns Labor government should change the law to impose user-pays policing charges on all repeat protests.

“Every dollar that’s spent on policing serial protests is a dollar that could be going towards improving the lives of NSW families,” the Liberal leader said on Tuesday.

The NSW Greens justice spokesperson, Sue Higginson, said Minns knew the organisers of the weekly pro-Palestine rallies wouldn’t have the means to cover user-pays fees.

“Threatening to interfere with the right to protest creates a dangerous environment where important voices of democracy are strangled out of existence,” she said

“We want more regulation, we want more control and we want more transparency and this will never be achieved without pressure."

“We want more regulation, we want more control and we want more transparency and this will never be achieved without pressure,” Mathlouthi said.

Last October, the EU asked X, Meta and TikTok for information about how they were regulating content about the conflict. That’s the first step in figuring out whether a full investigation is needed under the DSA.

In December, the European Commission opened formal proceedings against X to address, among other concerns, “the dissemination of illegal content in the context of Hamas’ terrorist attacks against Israel,” a press release said at the time.

The EU has since launched formal investigations against Meta, TikTok and TikTok Lite for other possible DSA breaches but did not explicitly mention Israel or Palestine-related content as one of their reasons.

Euronews Next reached out to the European Commission to confirm whether the information they received from Meta and TikTok about their moderation policies on the Israel-Hamas war was satisfactory but did not receive an immediate reply.

OLDE TESTAMENT ISRAEL IS BACK

Israel's strikes are shifting the power balance in the Middle East, with US support

Ellen Knickmeyer

AP
Mon, October 7, 2024 



The Associated Press

WASHINGTON (AP) — Israeli military strikes are targeting Iran's armed allies across a nearly 2,000-mile stretch of the Middle East and threatening Iran itself. The efforts raise the possibility of an end to two decades of Iranian ascendancy in the region, to which the 2003 U.S. invasion of Iraq inadvertently gave rise.

In Washington, Tel Aviv and Jerusalem, and Arab capitals, opponents and supporters of Israel's offensive are offering clashing ideas about what the U.S. should do next, as its ally racks up tactical successes against Hezbollah in Lebanon and the Houthis in Yemen and presses its yearlong campaign to crush Hamas in Gaza.

Israel should get all the support it needs from the United States until Iran's government “follows other dictatorships of the past into the dustbin of history,” said Richard Goldberg, a senior adviser at Washington's conservative-leaning Foundation for the Defense of Democracies — calls echoed by some Israeli political figures.


Going further, Yoel Guzansky, a former senior staffer at Israel’s National Security Council, called for the Biden administration to join Israel in direct attacks in Iran. That would send "the right message to the Iranians — ‘Don’t mess with us,’'' Guzansky said.

Critics, however, highlight lessons from the U.S. military campaign in Iraq and toppling of Saddam Hussein, when President George W. Bush ignored Arab warnings that the Iraqi dictator was the region's indispensable counterbalance to Iranian influence. They caution against racking up military victories without adequately considering the risks, end goals or plans for what comes next, and warn of unintended consequences.

Ultimately, Israel “will be in a situation where it can only protect itself by perpetual war,” said Vali Nasr, who was an adviser to the Obama administration. Now a professor at Johns Hopkins School of Advanced International Studies, or SAIS, he has been one of the leading documenters of the rise of Iranian regional influence since the U.S. invasion of Iraq.

With Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu giving limited weight to Biden administration calls for restraint, the United States and its partners in the Middle East are “at the mercy of how far Bibi Netanyahu will push it,” Nasr said, referring to the Israeli leader by his nickname.

“It's as if we hadn't learned the lessons, or the folly, of that experiment ... in Iraq in 2003 about reshaping the Middle East order,” said Randa Slim, a fellow at SAIS and researcher at the Washington-based Middle East Institute.

Advocates of Israel’s campaign hope for the weakening of Iran and its armed proxies that attack the U.S., Israel and their partners, oppress civil society and increasingly are teaming up with Russia and other Western adversaries.

Opponents warn that military action without resolving the grievances of Palestinians and others risks endless and destabilizing cycles of war, insurgency and extremist violence, and Middle East governments growing more repressive to try to control the situation.

And there’s the threat that Iran develops nuclear weapons to try to ensure its survival. Before the Israeli strikes on Hezbollah, Iranian leaders concerned about Israel’s offensives had made clear that they were interested in returning to negotiations with the U.S. on their nuclear program and claimed interest in improved relations overall.

In just weeks, Israeli airstrikes and intelligence operations have devastated the leadership, ranks and arsenals of Lebanon-based Hezbollah — which had been one of the Middle East’s most powerful fighting forces and Iran's overseas bulwark against attacks on Iranian territory — and hit oil infrastructure of Yemen's Iran-allied Houthis.

A year of Israeli airstrikes in Gaza appears to have reduced the leadership of Iranian-allied Hamas to a few survivors hiding in underground tunnels. However, Israeli forces again engaged in heavy fighting there this week, and Hamas was able to fire rockets at Tel Aviv in a surprising show of enduring strength on the Oct. 7 anniversary of the militant group's attack on Israel, which started the war.

Anticipated Israeli counterstrikes on Iran could accelerate regional shifts in power. The response would follow Iran launching ballistic missiles at Israel last week in retaliation for killings of Hezbollah and Hamas leaders.

It also could escalate the risk of all-out regional war that U.S. President Joe Biden — and decades of previous administrations — worked to avert.

The expansion of Israeli attacks since late last month has sidelined mediation by the U.S., Egypt and Qatar for a cease-fire and hostage release deal in Gaza. U.S. leaders say Israel did not warn them before striking Hezbollah leaders in Lebanon but have defended the surge in attacks, while still pressing for peace.

Vice President Kamala Harris, the Democratic presidential nominee, said in an interview with CBS' “60 Minutes” aired Monday that the U.S. was dedicated to supplying Israel with the military aid needed to protect itself but would keep pushing to end the conflict.

“We’re not going to stop in terms of putting that pressure on Israel and in the region, including Arab leaders,” she said.

Israel’s expanded strikes raise for many what is the tempting prospect of weakening Iran’s anti-Western, anti-Israel alliance with like-minded armed groups in Lebanon, Iraq, Syria and Yemen to governments in Russia and North Korea.

Called the “Axis of Resistance," Iran's military alliances grew — regionally, then globally — after the U.S. invasion of Iraq removed Saddam, who had fought an eight-year war against Iran's ambitious clerical regime.

Advocates of the U.S. invasion of Iraq, and overthrow of Saddam, said correctly that an Iraqi democracy would take hold.

But the unintended effects of the U.S. intervention were even bigger, including the rise of Iran's Axis of Resistance and new extremist groups, including the Islamic State.

“An emboldened and expansionist Iran appears to be the only victor” of the 2003 Iraq war, notes a U.S. Army review of lessons learned.

“Two decades ago, who could have seen a day when Iran was supporting Russia with arms? The reason is because of its increased influence” after the U.S. overthrow of Saddam, said Ihsan Alshimary, professor of political science at Baghdad University.

Even more than in 2003, global leaders are offering little clear idea on how the shifts in power that Israel’s military is putting in motion will end — for Iran, Israel, the Middle East at large, and the United States.

Iran and its allies are being weakened, said Goldberg, at the Foundation for the Defense of Democracies. So is U.S. influence as it appears to be dragged along by Israel, Nasr said.

The conflict could end up hurting Israel if it bogs down in a ground war in Lebanon, for example, said Mehran Kamrava, a professor and Middle East expert at Georgetown University in Qatar.

After four decades of deep animosity between Israeli and Iranian leaders, “the cold war between them has turned into a hot war. And this is significantly changing — is bound to change — the strategic landscape in the Middle East,” he said.

“We are certainly at the precipice of change," Kamrava said. But “the direction and nature of that change is very hard to predict at this stage."

___

AP reporters Julia Frankel in Jerusalem and Qassim Abdul-Zahra in Baghdad contributed.

Ellen Knickmeyer, The Associated Press

Israel’s lack of vision in multi-fronted war may be fatally exposed

Peter Beaumont in Jerusalem
Sun 6 October 2024
THE GUARDIAN

Israeli troops gather at the southern Lebanon border.Photograph: Atef Safadi/EPA


As Israelis approached the beginning of the high holy days last week on the eve of Rosh Hashanah, the news began to circulate. Several IDF units fighting on the border with Lebanon had taken casualties in at least two different locations. Soldiers had died in combat, and many were wounded.

The confirmation of the wounded and dead, if not the circumstances served as a stark reminder for Israelis of the blows that come in war, even as Israel’s punishing air offensive has killed hundreds of Lebanese and wounded more. The soldiers’ deaths came after two weeks in which Israel struck a series of blows against Hezbollah, including the assassination of the group’s leader, Sayyed Hassan Nasrallah, and most of the top leadership.

Underlining that sense of hazard was another story that revealed itself slowly last week: how the wave of Iranian missiles launched against Israel had not been as inconsequential as initially claimed by Israel’s leadership, and instead shown that a large-scale strike could not only overwhelm Israel’s anti-missile defences but that Tehran could accurately explode warheads on the targets it was aiming for, in this case several military bases.


All of which raises serious questions as Israel prepares for a “significant” military response to Iran for the its missile attack.

A year into Israel’s fast metastasising multi-front war that now includes Iran, Lebanon and Gaza, Yemen, Syria and Iraq, Israel’s undoubted military and intelligence superiority is faltering on several fronts.

In Israel’s expanding war, as Israeli security analyst Michael Milshtein told the Guardian last week, there have been “tactical victories” but “no strategic vision” and certainly not one that unites the different fronts.

What is clear is that the conflict of the last year has seriously exposed Israel’s newly minted operational doctrine, which had planned for fighting short decisive wars largely against non-state actors armed with missiles, with the aim of avoiding being drawn into extended conflicts of attrition.

Instead, the opposite has happened. While Israeli officials have tried to depict Hamas as defeated as a military force – a questionable characterisation in the first place – they concede that it survives as a guerilla organisation in Gaza, although degraded.

Even as Israel has killed more than 40,000 Palestinians in Gaza, levelled large areas of the coastal strip and displaced a population assailed by hunger, death and sickness on multiple occasions, Israeli armour was assaulting areas of the strip once more this weekend in a new operation into northern Gaza to prevent Hamas regrouping.

Hezbollah too, despite sustaining heavy losses in its leadership, retains a potency fighting on its own terrain in the villages of southern Lebanon where it has had almost two decades to prepare for this conflict.

All of which raises serious questions as to whether Israel has any clearer vision for its escalating conflict with Iran.

A long-distance war with Iran, many experts are beginning to suggest, could also devolve into a more attritional conflict despite the relative imbalances in capabilities, even as Israel continues to plan for the scale of its own response to last week’s missile attack.

Speaking to Bloomberg TV, Carmiel Arbit, a senior fellow at the Atlantic Council’s Middle East programme, described that dynamic. “I think we are going to be looking at this as the new reality for a long time,” Arbit predicted.

“I think the question is simply going to be how often is the tit for tat going to happen, and is it just going to be tit for tat, or is this going to escalate only further. And I think the hope of the international community at this point is to avert a world war three rather than this smaller-scale war of attrition.”

Nicole Grajewski, a fellow at of the Carnegie Endowment for Peace, echoes that view in part, while cautioning that an extended series of exchanges could push Tehran to a less predictable reaction.

“The continued asymmetrical tit-for-tat between Iran and Israel risks devolving into a futile cycle of Iranian missile strikes and Israeli retaliations, each exposing Tehran’s military limitations while failing to alter the balance – and potentially driving Iran toward more desperate and unpredictable measures in its quest for credible deterrence.”

“In the long term – and it cannot be assumed that the Israeli-Iranian conflict will end soon,” wrote Haaretz’s main military analyst, Amos Harel, “there will be competition between the production rate and sophistication of Iran’s offensive systems on one side and of Israel’s interception systems on the other.”

With Israel now so deeply immersed in a widening conflict, it is unclear whether it can escape what Anthony Pfaff, the director of the Strategic Studies Institute at the US Army War College, in August called the “escalatory trap”.

“If Israel escalates,” wrote Pfaff, “it fuels the escalatory spiral that could, at some point, exceed its military capability to manage.

“If it chooses the status quo, where Hamas remains capable of terrorist operations, then it has done little to improve its security situation. Neither outcome achieves Israel’s security objectives … Forcing the choice between escalation and the status quo gives Iran, and, by extension, Hezbollah, an advantage and is a key feature of its proxy strategy.”

Israel says senior Hezbollah official probably dead, Hezbollah backs truce efforts

Updated Tue 8 October 2024 

By Maya Gebeily

BEIRUT (Reuters) -Hezbollah left the door open to a negotiated ceasefire on Tuesday after Israeli forces made new incursions in Lebanon, and Israel's defence minister said another senior official from the Iran-backed group appeared to have been killed.

In what could be the latest in a series of major blows to Hezbollah, Israeli Defence Minister Yoav Gallant said it appeared the replacement for slain Hezbollah leader Sayyed Hassan Nasrallah had been "eliminated".

Hashem Safieddine, a top Hezbollah official, was widely expected to succeed Nasrallah. Safieddine has not been heard from publicly since an Israeli airstrike late last week.

"Hezbollah is an organization without a head. Nasrallah was eliminated, his replacement was probably also eliminated," Gallant told officers at the Israeli military's northern command centre, in a brief video segment distributed by the military.

"There's no one to make decisions, no one to act," he said, without providing further details.

In a televised speech, Hezbollah deputy leader Naim Qassem, said he supported attempts to secure a truce, and for the first time did not mention the end of war in Gaza as a pre-condition to halting combat on the Lebanon-Israel border.

Qassem said Hezbollah supported attempts by Speaker of Parliament Nabih Berri, a Hezbollah ally, to secure a halt to fighting, which has escalated in recent weeks with the Israeli ground incursions and the killing of top Hezbollah leaders.

"We support the political activity being led by Berri under the title of a ceasefire," Qassem said in his 30-minute televised address.

It was not clear whether this signalled any change in stance, after a year in which the group has said it is fighting in support of the Palestinians during the Israel-Hamas war in Gaza, and would not stop without a ceasefire there.

Speaking in front of curtains from an undisclosed location, Qassem said the conflict with Israel was a war about who cries first, and Hezbollah would not cry first. The group's capabilities were intact despite "painful blows" from Israel.

"We are striking them. We are hurting them and we will prolong the time. Dozens of cities are within range of the resistance's missiles. We assure you that our capabilities are fine," said Qassem.

His televised address comes 11 days after the killing of Nasrallah, the most devastating setback Israel has dealt its foe in decades. Qassem said the group would elect a new secretary general and announce it once it has been done.

Israel kept up the pressure on Hezbollah on Tuesday by killing another one of its senior figures and launching new operations in southern Lebanon.

Qassem said Israel had yet to advance after ground clashes that broke out in south Lebanon a week ago.

"In any case, after the issue of a ceasefire takes shape, and once diplomacy can achieve it, all of the other details can be discussed and decisions can be taken," Qassem said.

"If the enemy (Israel) continues its war, then the battlefield will decide."

The regional tensions triggered a year ago by Palestinian armed group Hamas' attack on southern Israel have spiralled in recent weeks into a series of Israeli operations by land and air against Lebanon. On Oct. 1, Iran, sponsor of both Hezbollah and Hamas, fired missiles at Israel.

WARNING FROM IRAN

Iran warned Israel on Tuesday against any retliatory attacks. Foreign Minister Abbas Araqchi said any attack on Iran's infrastructure will be met with retaliation.

Araqchi will visit Saudi Arabia and other countries in the Middle East starting on Tuesday. In a video on state media he said the aim of his trip was discuss ways "to prevent the shameless crimes of the Zionist regime in Lebanon in continuation of the crimes in Gaza".

Sources have told Reuters that Gulf Arab states have sought to reassure Tehran of their neutrality in the conflict.

On the ground, the area of Israeli operations in Lebanon has been expanding. The Israeli military said it was conducting "limited, localised, targeted operations" in Lebanon's southwest, having previously announced such operations in the southeast.

A World Food Programme official voiced concern about Lebanon's food supply, saying thousands of hectares of farmland across the country's south has burned or been abandoned.

"Agriculture-wise, food production-wise, (there is) extraordinary concern for Lebanon's ability to continue to feed itself," Matthew Hollingworth, WFP country director in Lebanon, told a Geneva press briefing, adding that harvests will not occur and produce is rotting in fields.

World Health Organization official Ian Clarke in Beirut told the same briefing that there was a much higher risk of disease outbreaks among Lebanon's displaced population.

Israel's military struck Beirut's southern suburbs overnight again and said it had killed a figure responsible for Hezbollah's budgeting and logistics, Suhail Hussein Husseini, in what would be the latest in a string of Israeli assassinations of leaders and commanders of Hezbollah and Hamas.

Many Israelis have regained confidence in their long-vaunted military and intelligence after deadly blows in recent weeks to the command structure of Hezbollah.

The situation in Lebanon is getting worse by the day, the European Union's foreign policy chief, Josep Borrell, told the European Parliament, calling for a ceasefire. Some 20% of the Lebanese population had been forced to move, he said.

(Reporting by Elwely Elewelly in Dubai and Maya Gebeily in Beirut and Benoit Van Overstraeten in Brussels and Emma Farge in Geneva; Writing by Michael Georgy; Editing by Clarence Fernandez, William Maclean, Peter Graff and Timothy Heritage)

A year ago, the hostages were a rallying point for solidarity in Israel – now, their families are symbols of the country’s sharp divides

Shai P. Ginsburg, Duke University
Mon 7 October 2024


People in Tel Aviv protest against the Israeli government and call for the release of hostages held in the Gaza Strip on Sept. 21, 2024. AP Photo/Mahmoud Illean


In the run-up to the first anniversary of Hamas’ attack on Israel, there has been no shortage of dramatic events making headlines in Israel. On Oct. 1, Israelis took shelter during Iran’s missile attack. In the days leading up to the attack, Israel assassinated Hassan Nasrallah, Hezbollah’s longtime leader, in Beirut; invaded Lebanon; and saw its economic rating downgraded, to name a few.

What was notably missing from the newspaper pages were the 101 hostages still held by Hamas, with about a third presumed dead. Their faces still look out at you from posters and flyers on walls, billboards, fences and bus stops, as well as in ads and banners in newspapers and news outlets. However, their stories have faded from the spotlight, where they had been for nearly a year.

When Hamas attacked Israel on Oct. 7, 2023, the state was experiencing its most severe political conflict since its establishment. Many saw the right-wing government’s attempts to overhaul the judicial system as an effort to dismantle Israeli democracy, sparking weekly mass protests. For a few short weeks after the attack, the protests subsided, and it seemed as if Israel might overcome its internal divisions in efforts to retrieve the hostages.

However, the hopes for solidarity soon faded. The hostages quickly went from a symbol of national resolve and unity to a symbol of the country’s preexisting divides.

A woman wears a blindfold during a September 2024 protest in Tel Aviv calling for a cease-fire deal and the immediate release of hostages held in Gaza by Hamas. AP Photo/Ohad Zwigenberg

As a scholar of Israeli culture, history and politics, I have been monitoring coverage in Israel and abroad. On the international stage, the image of the hostages has been employed to justify Israel’s devastation of the Gaza Strip – and now its military operations in Lebanon. Within Israel, however, attention on the hostages has posed a significant challenge for Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and his coalition.
Two groups, two priorities

Most advocacy efforts for the hostages are channeled through the Hostages and Missing Families Forum, a volunteer-based organization that focuses on “bringing our loved ones home by any means necessary through all available channels” – including as part of negotiations for a cease-fire or a complete military pullout from Gaza.

However, a small group of families established a rival organization, the Tikva Forum – meaning “Hope.” They state on their website: “The Tikva Forum will not allow our children, parents, and friends to be used to bolster our enemies or enable them to repeat the attacks of October 7th. Our only option is to win this war and to remove any incentive to ever attack Israel again.” Viewing the liberation of the hostages as less important than decisively defeating Israel’s enemies, they oppose efforts to de-escalate the conflict or negotiate with Hamas.

Pictures of fallen Israeli soldiers are displayed during a Jerusalem rally against a hostage deal, organized by right-wing Israelis with relatives held hostage in Gaza and their supporters. AP Photo/Maya Alleruzzo

It is no surprise, then, that these two forums have aligned themselves with opposing political camps, with the prime minister’s coalition embracing the Tikva Forum.
Thorn in the government’s side

In the weeks and months after the attack, members of the Hostages and Missing Families Forum became increasingly frustrated with Netanyahu and his government. Following the first Israel–Hamas prisoner exchange in November 2023, which saw the release of 80 Israeli hostages and 25 foreign nationals, it became evident that key factions within the prime minister’s coalition opposed any further deals that might involve concessions to Hamas.

Bringing an end to the war would thwart far-right parties’ vision of resuming Israeli control over Gaza, expelling Palestinians and renewing Jewish settlements there. Time and again, they have threatened to withdraw from the coalition and trigger new elections if Netanyahu agrees to a cease-fire in Gaza – and recently, in Lebanon as well.

Members of Netanyahu’s coalition have disparaged appeals made by the Hostages and Missing Families Forum. More than once, legislators from the prime minister’s Likud party have accused the forum of serving Hamas’ interests. Yuli Edelstein, chairman of the foreign affairs and defense committee, ran into an uncle of a hostage in the Knesset and told him to “get out of my sight.” When hostages’ family members told Nissim Vaturi, the deputy speaker of the Knesset, that their loved ones were going hungry in Gaza, he responded: “Did you eat this morning? So everything is fine.” Netanyahu himself only met with families of hostages murdered in Gaza in June, eight months after Hamas’ attack and only after prolonged public outcry.

For many, such conduct symbolizes the failure of politicians to secure the life of Israeli citizens, and their disregard for their pain.

In response, members of the Hostages and Missing Families Forum have taken an increasingly public role in demonstrations against the government. These have intensified significantly in recent weeks.

Relatives and friends of hostages Hamas is holding in the Gaza Strip block a road during a protest demanding their release, in Tel Aviv. AP Photo/Oded Balilty
Controversial ceremony

The Oct. 7 memorial ceremonies themselves illustrate the current state of Israel’s polarization.

An official ceremony will be led by the minister of transport, Miri Regev. The kibbutz communities which bore the brunt of the Hamas attack, however – home to many of the hostages still held in Gaza – announced that they would not take part. They noted that Netanyahu and his government have yet to take responsibility for the disaster and that they showed little care for the victims and survivors of Oct. 7.

When Regev planned to visit Kibbutz Be'eri, the site of one of the most horrible massacres, residents asked her not to enter the kibbutz. According to an investigation from Israel’s Channel 13, her spokesman said, “These Kibbutzim are the extreme left. … We have to get the minister a camel and a kaffiyeh. Start chopping off heads,” suggesting the minister should finish the work started by Hamas. Regev likewise threatened that Be'eri “will be the last kibbutz to be rebuilt.” She dismissed criticism of the official ceremony as “background noise.” Attempting to pacify the public outcry, President Isaac Herzog offered to host the state ceremony instead, but Regev rejected it outright.

Yigal Sarusi, center, mourns during the funeral of his son, Almog Sarusi, who was killed in Hamas captivity in Gaza, at a cemetery in Ra'anana, Israel, on Sept. 1, 2024. AP Photo/Ariel Schalit

On their part, many families of victims and of hostages decided to boycott the official ceremony and hold alternative ones, with the main one to take place in Tel Aviv.
Shaping the story

Indeed, the government seems intent on controlling how Oct. 7 and its aftermath are remembered and diverting attention from its failures – embodied first and foremost by the hostages. Government guidelines for commemoration ceremonies in schools, for example, mention neither the hostages nor the ongoing war in Gaza as topics to be discussed. Instead, they suggest focusing on those who were killed and sharing stories of heroism.

From this perspective, the recent military operations in Yemen and Lebanon and the possibility of strikes in Iran have been advantageous for Netanyahu and his coalition. For the first time in a year, Israeli actions have generated headlines showcasing Israeli success.

While Israelis remain divided on the objectives of the war in Gaza and the best strategies to free the hostages, recent polls indicate that 90% of Israeli Jews support the offensive against Hezbollah. Following recent military successes, approval ratings for the prime minister, minister of defense and military chief of staff have improved significantly: to 37%, 57% and 63%, respectively.

As the anticipated military escalation looms, attention has been diverted from the hostages and their families, and some have expressed concerns that those in captivity will be all but forgotten. Their fears appear well grounded.

This article is republished from The Conversation, a nonprofit, independent news organization bringing you facts and trustworthy analysis to help you make sense of our complex world. It was written by: Shai P. Ginsburg, Duke University

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Project 2025 would ‘unequivocally’ lead to more hurricane deaths, experts warn

Dharna Noor and Oliver Milman

THE GUARDIAN
Tue 8 October 2024 

The aftermath of Hurricane Helene in Asheville, North Carolina, on 3 October 2024.Photograph: Mario Tama/Getty Images


With communities still reeling from Hurricane Helene, one of the deadliest storms ever to hit the US, further pain in the form of Hurricane Milton is about to hit Florida. Experts warn such disasters will be deepened if Donald Trump is elected and follows the policy plans of the controversial rightwing Project 2025 manifesto.

Under Project 2025, authored by numerous former Trump officials but disavowed by the former president himself, the federal forecasting of severe storms and aid given to shattered towns and cities would be drastically scaled back. Emergency management officials say the cuts would severely worsen the outcomes from a storm like Helene.

Project 2025 calls for “breaking up and downsizing” the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (Noaa), which it calls a primary component “of the climate change alarm industry”. The agency’s climate research is “harmful to future US prosperity” and should be disbanded, the document says.


Noaa houses the National Weather Service (NWS) which provides forecasts and analyses on hurricanes and other extreme weather events. Project 2025 calls for the service to “fully commercialize its forecasting operations”.

“They want to pretend climate change isn’t clearly having an effect,” said Andrew Rosenberg, a former Noaa official who is now a fellow at the University of New Hampshire and who called the proposals “ridiculous”.

Introducing a profit-motive into the NWS would undermine commitment to the public interest, said Rosenberg.

“The primary motivation of a business is profit, and do you really want to have things like severe weather forecasts for things like a massive storm be driven by a profit?” Rosenberg asked.

If enacted, the playbook would also radically reimagine the Federal Emergency Management Agency (Fema), ending its federal flood insurance program – the country’s top federal flood insurance provider – and shrinking its disaster aid.

“It would result in greater suffering, more complicated responses and greater risks across the country,” said Samantha Montano, an expert in emergency management at Massachusetts Maritime Academy.

Project 2025 “unequivocally leads to more people dying from a hurricane”, said the Florida representative Jared Moskowitz, a Democrat who was previously a Florida emergency management director.
Tracking the storm

Ahead of disasters, the NWS blitzes first responders and residents; before Helene the agency sent warnings reading “urgent” across the US south-east. Emergency responders compare those warnings and forecasts to floodplains and maps “to determine how people should prepare”, Moskowitz said.

Those warnings are based on data from Noaa’s Asheville, North Carolina-based National Centers for Environmental Information, which puts weather into a historical perspective.

“When the forecast for Helene says words like unprecedented, extremely rare and catastrophic, those words are based on the very real climatology records,” said Marjorie McGuirk, an Asheville-based meteorologist who for years worked for the centers.

Noaa’s forecasts of Helene were “absolutely spot on” because they took this climate data into account, McGuirk said.

“Project 2025 pretty much does away with all of that,” she said. “It destroys the integrity of forecasts.”

Emergency responders reportedly regret not taking Noaa’s warnings more seriously ahead of Helene. But counties did receive mandatory evacuation orders, which likely saved lives.

“If it’s privatized, would it still provide forecasts to emergency managers?” Moskowitz asked. “And what if there are business investors involved who have an interest in keeping people in their homes?”

NWS forecasts are currently free to access, but Project 2025 could place forecasts behind a paywall leaving poorer government bodies and communities less prepared.

Though Project 2025 says Americans already rely on private forecasts from companies like AccuWeather, those companies by and large rely on NWS data to inform their own products.

Dismantling the weather service would also disrupt the NWS’s National Hurricane Center (NHC), which predicts and tracks tropical cyclones. Project 2025 calls for a “review” of the NHC and for its data to be “presented neutrally, without adjustments intended to support any one side in the climate debate”.

Project 2025 also says the Office of Oceanic and Atmospheric Research (OAR) should be “disbanded” because it is “the source of much of Noaa’s climate alarmism”. But the office conducts research that underpins most weather and forecasting studies nationally.

It’s a “nonsensical” assertion, said Rosenberg. “Climate change is observably changing both the pattern and the intensity of the storms. So do they account for that in their forecasts? Yeah, they better,” he said.
After the storm hits

Project 2025 envisions a radically different role for the Federal Emergency Management Agency (Fema) that is currently dealing with the devastating aftermath of Helene amid a swirl of misinformation and falsehoods, stoked by Trump, that funding is being directed towards immigrants at the expense of disaster-hit communities.

In fact, Fema has said that its disaster relief fund is not being used for any other purpose than to help those in need from storms like Helene. Such a response would be reshaped under Project 2025’s prescriptions, however, with Fema shifted out of the department of homeland security and into the Department of Interior or the Department of Transportation.

Fema would provide much less help to communities under this plan and push responsibility to the states and local governments, with the federal government covering just 25% of the cost of disasters, or up to 75% for “truly catastrophic events”, according to the document. Currently, under the Stafford Act, Fema covers at least 75% of disaster costs once requested, and up to 100% at a president’s discretion.

Project 2025 also demands Fema scrap grants going to states to help them become more resilient to future storms and to privatize the National Flood Insurance Program (NFIP), which provides most flood cover to Americans. Ken Cuccinelli, a former Trump official and Project 2025 author wrote that “if we focus them (Fema) more narrowly when they are deployed, they will do a better job”.

Had this shrunken version of Fema been in place ahead of Hurricane Helene and, now, Hurricane Milton, the initial clean-up after the storms hit would remain much the same but the longer-term recovery would “look vastly different” for places already facing years of recovery, said Montano.

“The states couldn’t afford the costs associated with rebuilding roads, bridges and other infrastructure, let alone have funding for individuals and businesses,” she said.

“The non-profit sector wouldn’t be able to make up the difference. It’s a very bad idea.”

Even the initial recovery for hurricane-hit communities would be hampered by less federal support, according to Craig Fugate, former administrator of Fema, who pointed out that just removing downed trees and other debris after Hurricane Michael in 2018 cost five times more than the entire annual budget of the badly-hit city of Mexico Beach, Florida.

“States don’t usually have a lot of spare money floating around so they would have to decide whether to raise taxes or cut programs to make up the funding,” Fugate said. “You’d have to move money from schools, prisons and healthcare to respond to a disaster. Most likely, local governments would go bankrupt.”

Longer term, a reduced Fema role would mean that when vital structures like schools, hospitals and highways are rebuilt they wouldn’t have to adhere to federal guidelines that demand a far stronger resilience standard than many states do, to deal with the reality of fiercer extreme weather driven by the climate crisis.

In North Carolina, for example, the Republican-led state legislature has wound back extreme weather construction requirements, a move that experts say make residents more vulnerable to major storms like Helene.

Private insurers would likely not step in or go immediately bankrupt if they had to fill the void of a removed federal flood insurance scheme, Fugate said, leaving even more people without flood insurance. The federal initiative was set up in the 1960s after private insurers fled the market in the wake of several disastrous floods.

“Just relying on the market wouldn’t make sense – the reason we have the NFIP is because private companies refused to cover flooding,” said Montano. “There’s no evidence there would be a robust and effective private insurance market given the risks we are seeing now. There are absolutely problems with the NFIP but we need to fix the program we have.”

Former Fema executives agree that the agency does need reform but they spoke in terms of retooling it to an era of climate crisis and more intense storms unknown when it was formed in 1979. The growing cavalcade of disasters has been underlined by Helene’s impact being quickly followed by Hurricane Milton’s expected landfall in Florida.

“We are facing unprecedented times, we are getting these disaster declarations every other day this year,” said Anne Bink, who headed Fema’s response and recovery operation until May this year.

“Fema is needed more than ever by state and local governments because of the increased pace in disasters. We can’t just build back like before, we really need to invest in resilience.”

Neither the Heritage Foundation, the main author of Project 2025, nor the Trump campaign responded to questions about disaster forecasting and response.



Hurricane Milton is threatening an already-battered Florida — and is now a political issue

Geoff Weiss,Erin Snodgrass,Aditi Bharade

Business Insider

Updated Tue 8 October 2024


Hurricane Milton is a Category 4 storm, having earlier intensified into a Category 5 storm, the most severe.


It's set to make landfall on Wednesday in Florida, which is still reeling from Hurricane Helene.


The hurricanes have also whipped up a political storm, with Trump claims sparking a FEMA response.

Floridians are bracing for another serious storm even as they recover from the last one that barreled through the region.

Hurricane Milton intensified into a Category 5 storm — the most severe classification — in the Gulf of Mexico on Monday. It later weakened to a Category 4 storm and is expected to make landfall in Florida on Wednesday. The National Hurricane Center said the storm's intensity was expected to fluctuate, but it remained "extremely dangerous."

That's less than two weeks after Hurricane Helene tore through the state along the Gulf Coast on its way into Georgia, North Carolina, and Tennessee. The severe flooding in those states stretched funding from the Federal Emergency Management Agency — and another storm could put further strain on the federal disaster agency.

It's already sparked political wrangling, with Donald Trump accusing Democrats of botching the recovery operations — and Democrats saying he's not telling the truth.

Milton reached peak wind speeds of nearly 180 mph on Monday, the National Hurricane Center said, and is expected to create "a life-threatening storm surge" along Florida's west coast near Tampa Bay.

Tampa Mayor Jane Castor told CNN's Kaitlan Collins on Monday that the hurricane is primed to be "literally catastrophic."

"And I can say without any dramatization whatsoever, if you choose to stay in one of those evacuation areas, you're going to die," Castor said.

Heavy rainfall beginning on Monday could result in moderate to major river-flooding risks, the center said.

The state's governor, Ron DeSantis, issued a state of emergency for 51 counties on Sunday, and millions of Floridians could soon be under orders to evacuate.

DeSantis also said Monday that debris from Helene must be cleared to avoid it being kicked up again by Milton, The Associated Press reported.

Helene caused more than 220 deaths, and Moody's Analytics estimated its damage could total between $20 billion and $34 billion.

The timing is problematic for federal agencies. The secretary of homeland security, Alejandro Mayorkas, told reporters last week that FEMA did not have enough funds to make it through hurricane season, which runs through the end of November, the AP reported.

President Joe Biden suggested last week Congress may need to pass a supplemental spending bill, though members are not expected to return to Washington until after the election.

In a letter to congressional leaders on Friday, Biden said FEMA had the resources it needed for the "immediate emergency response phase" in the wake of Helene but that the Small Business Administration's disaster-loan program was on the verge of running out of money.

And that was before Milton intensified in the Gulf Coast and threatened to deal Florida another crushing blow.
Helene becomes a political issue

With one month until Election Day, the federal response to Helene quickly became politicized.

Tesla CEO Elon Musk has frequently posted about the FEMA response to Helene in the days since the storm tore through the Southeast. The billionaire expressed anger in a Friday X post, saying that SpaceX engineers tried to offer help via helicopter but were declined by FEMA.

Transportation Secretary Pete Buttigieg said Monday that he spoke with Musk via phone, attributing some of what he said was the billionaire's confusion to "temporary flight restrictions," which the FAA imposed in the immediate aftermath of Helene to maintain safety in the skies. Buttigieg said he and Musk were able to expedite approval for pilots trying to bring Starlink equipment to areas hit by the storm. Musk followed up with an X post thanking the transportation secretary.

Trump, too, has stoked the partisan fire in recent days, directing much of his vitriol at Biden and Vice President Kamala Harris.

Trump accused Biden of ignoring calls from Georgia Gov. Brian Kemp. Kemp later disputed the claim and said he had spoken with Biden already and had initially missed a call from the president.

Trump later referenced "reports" he said he received that showed the federal government and Democratic governor of North Carolina were "going out of their way to not help people in Republican areas." As online rumors swirled, FEMA issued a response, combatting many of the claims, including any demographic bias in recovery efforts.

For their part, Biden said in a Sunday statement that he ordered another 500 active-duty troops to Western North Carolina to assist with recovery efforts, bringing the total to 1,500 troops, and Harris, meanwhile, visited the state over the weekend, praising first responders and promising ongoing federal support.

On Monday, NBC News reported that DeSantis was not taking calls from Harris about Helene's recovery efforts, citing an aide for the governor who said DeSantis was avoiding the vice president's calls because "they seemed political."

During a Monday news conference, however, DeSantis said he didn't know Harris had been trying to reach him, adding that he hadn't spoken with the Biden Administration because the federal government had already approved the state's requests, NBC reported.

The succession of weather events has also underscored the rising cost of home insurance in Florida, the most at-risk state for hurricanes, with premiums skyrocketing.

While Florida remains one of the most popular states to move to, Business Insider previously reported that the high cost of insurance — and homes — had caused some to reconsider their residency in the state.

Opinion: Michigan and Wisconsin are key for Harris. GOP groups want to help her win them.

Chris Brennan, USA TODAY
Sun, October 6, 2024 

The presidential election is 30 days away, and voters are starting to hear plenty of forceful sentiments from Republicans about Donald Trump.

It's not the kind of talk the former one-term Republican president wants out there about himself.

With the presidential race a dead heat and less than a month to go, every vote along the margins matters. Vice President Kamala Harris and Trump know that, and they are running very different campaigns. She's working feverishly to expand her reach while he stokes his base and hopes to energize low-propensity voters.

A key advantage for Harris: She has Republican allies doing some heavy lifting for her.
Republicans are lining up to help Kamala Harris beat Donald Trump

Vice President Kamala Harris speaks to supporters at the Redford Fire Department on Oct. 4, 2024 in Redford, Mich.

Consider Republican Voters Against Trump, which last week launched a series of ads and billboards, spending $15 million to feature former Trump voters explaining how his behavior has persuaded them to cast a ballot this year for Harris.

Then there is Haley Voters for Harris, courting center-right voters who previously backed former South Carolina Gov. Nikki Haley in this year's Republican primaries for president. That group last week started a seven-figure digital ad buy that presents Harris as a better option than Trump for voters concerned about the economy.

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Harris is embracing the GOP support, appearing Thursday in Ripon, Wisconsin – the birthplace of the Republican Party, now in a critical swing state – with former U.S. Rep. Liz Cheney, a Republican who lost her Wyoming seat in 2022 due to her sustained criticism of Trump during and after his presidency.

Cheney's father, former Vice President Dick Cheney, is also backing Harris over Trump.

Trump, on the other hand, has been on a binge of ego-boosting rallies, where he rambles on for more than an hour at a time about a litany of grievances in front of supporters who are already planning to vote for him.

Harris is aiming for something new in crossover support. Trump is offering the same-old same old.

A look at the voting math in swing states

Republican presidential candidate Nikki Haley

The math tells a tantalizing tale in the "blue wall" swing states of Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin.

Haley won more than 297,000 votes in Michigan's Feb. 27 Republican primary, eight days before she dropped out of the race. In the last presidential election, Joe Biden defeated Trump in that state by 154,188 votes.

Haley took nearly 77,000 votes in Wisconsin's Republican primary in April, a month after she had dropped out of the race. Biden beat Trump there by 20,682 votes four years ago.

And Haley received nearly 159,000 votes in Pennsylvania's April 23 Republican primary, seven weeks after she left the race. Biden defeated Trump in that state in 2020 by 80,555 votes.

Republicans were backing Haley before and especially after her bid was over. Does it really matter now that Haley endorsed Trump in July, after questioning in January whether he is "mentally fit" to be president again?

In an incredibly tight race, Haley's supporters in those three states could swing this for Harris.

The Republican must know this, because her former presidential campaign had a law firm send Haley Voters for Harris a "cease and desist" letter on July 23 – a week after she endorsed Trump at the Republican National Convention – demanding that the group not use her name.

Haley Voters for Harris responded by saying its rights to engage with her supporters "will not be suppressed."
What's the goal of these groups? Keep Trump away.

Craig Snyder, national director for Haley Voters for Harris, told me the group's ad is aimed at center-right voters "pretty much anywhere they go on the internet" – including YouTube, Facebook, streaming apps like HBO Max and gaming platforms.

It's geographically targeting 1.5 million voters in Pennsylvania, 600,000 in Michigan and 400,000 in Wisconsin.

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Snyder, a longtime Republican, said his group is making the "affirmative case for Harris, in terms of her record and her policy proposals, and why we think that those should not be scary to center-right voters."

Part of the pitch is that Republicans stand a good chance of winning back control of the U.S. Senate in November, and that the U.S. Supreme Court has a six-to-three conservative majority.

"Neither party is going to end up with complete control of our government," Snyder said. "There's too many firewalls. There's too many checks and balances."

Republican Voters Against Trump, Snyder said, is working toward the same goal but focused more on defining the former president "as a threat to democracy," in part due to his behavior before, during and after the insurrection at the U.S. Capitol on Jan. 6, 2021.

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Campaign finance reports filed by both groups – Haley Voters for Harris raises money as PivotPAC while Republican Voters Against Trump goes by Republican Accountability PAC – show significant support from establishment Democrats and political action committees and nonprofits that lean that way, even if the potential audiences for the ads don't.

Snyder didn't dispute that but said his group's small-dollar donations come from people identifying as Republican from more than 40 states.

"So it's very much a bipartisan coalition of people who are working together." he said
Meanwhile, Trump is still very much Trump

Republican presidential nominee and former U.S. President Donald Trump reacts at a rally in Las Vegas, Nevada, U.S. September 13, 2024. REUTERS/Piroschka Van de Wouw

Here's another thing both groups have working for them – Trump just keeps acting like Trump. If his behavior drives center-right voters to Harris, all the better for the never-Trumpers.

Trump on Friday posted a long screed on his social media site Truth Social excoriating Cheney and her father for backing Harris, mocking her as "a low IQ War Hawk" and claiming that both are "suffering gravely from Trump Derangement Syndrome."

He also threw a social media tantrum Wednesday after a prosecutor's brief was unsealed in his federal criminal case tied to the Jan. 6 insurrection that shed new and shocking light on his behavior. His freak-out was the standard stuff – calling the filing an "ILLEGAL ACTION" in a "Witch Hunt" to harm him and his reelection campaign.

Trump's fixation on grievance isn't doing much to expand his base. But building on a base requires discipline and focus, not exactly attributes that come to mind when thinking about Trump these days.

It looks like the best thing that could happen for Republican Voters Against Trump and Haley Voters for Harris – and for Harris herself – is for Trump to just keep on being Trump for the next 30 days.

Follow USA TODAY elections columnist Chris Brennan on X, formerly known as Twitter: @ByChrisBrennan

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This article originally appeared on USA TODAY: Opinion: Harris' new ally? Former Trump voters in key swing states