ATTACKS ON THE GHETTO NOT THE GATED COMMUNITIES

Over 6,000 people in Haiti leave their homes after gang attack killed dozens

PIERRE-RICHARD LUXAMA and ELÉONORE HUGHES
Sun 6 October 2024 



Haiti Displacement
People displaced by armed attacks receive food from a nongovernmental organization in Saint-Marc, Haiti, Sunday, Oct. 6, 2024. (AP Photo/Odelyn Joseph)

SAINT-MARC, Haiti (AP) — Nearly 6,300 people have fled their homes in the aftermath of an attack in central Haiti by heavily armed gang members that killed at least 70 people, according to the U.N.’s migration agency.

Nearly 90% of the displaced are staying with relatives in host families, while 12% have found refuge in other sites including a school, the International Organization for Migration said in a report last week.

The attack in Pont-Sondé happened in the early hours of Thursday morning, and many left in the middle of the night.


Gang members “came in shooting and breaking into the houses to steal and burn. I just had time to grab my children and run in the dark,” said 60-year-old Sonise Mirano on Sunday, who was camping with hundreds of people in a park in the nearby coastal city of Saint-Marc.

Bodies lay strewn on the streets of Pont-Sondé following the attack in the Artibonite region, many of them killed by a shot to the head, Bertide Harace, spokeswoman for the Commission for Dialogue, Reconciliation and Awareness to Save the Artibonite, told Magik 9 radio station on Friday.

Initial estimates put the number of those killed at 20 people, but activists and government officials discovered more bodies as they accessed areas of the town. Among the victims was a young mother, her newborn baby and a midwife, Herace said.

Prime Minister Garry Conille vowed that the perpetrators would face the full force of the law in comments in Saint-Marc on Friday.

“It is necessary to arrest them, bring them to justice, and put them in prison. They need to pay for what they have done, and the victims need to receive restitution,” he said.

The U.N. Human Rights Office of the Commissioner said in a statement that it was “horrified by Thursday’s gang attacks.”

The European Union also condemned the violence in a statement on Friday, which it said marked “yet another escalation in the extreme violence these criminal groups are inflicting on the Haitian people.”

Haiti’s government deployed an elite police unit based in the capital of Port-au-Prince to Pont-Sondé following the attack and sent medical supplies to help the area’s lone, and overwhelmed, hospital.

Police will remain in the area for as long as it takes to guarantee safety, Conille said, adding that he didn’t know whether it would take a day or a month. He also appealed to the population, saying “the police cannot do it alone.”

Gang violence across Artibonite, which produces much of Haiti’s food, has increased in recent years. Since that uptick, Thursday’s attack is one of the biggest massacres.

Similar ones have taken place in the capital of Port-au-Prince, 80% of which is controlled by gangs, and they typically are linked to turf wars, with gang members targeting civilians in areas controlled by rivals. Many neighborhoods are not safe, and people affected by the violence have not been able to return home, even if their houses have not been destroyed.

More than 700,000 people — more than half of whom are children — are now internally displaced across Haiti, according to the International Organization for Migration in an Oct. 2 statement. That was an increase of 22% since June.

Port-au-Prince hosts a quarter of the country’s displaced, often residing in overcrowded sites, with little to no access to basic services, the agency said.

Those forced to flee their homes are mostly being accommodated by families, who have reported significant difficulties, including food shortages, overwhelmed healthcare facilities, and a lack of essential supplies on local markets, according to the agency.

___

Hughes reported from Rio de Janeiro.


Haiti PM goes abroad for security support after gang massacre

HE FLED

Updated Sun 6 October 2024


STORY: :: Port-au-Prince, Haiti

Haitian Prime Minister Garry Conille embarked on a trip to the United Arab Emirates and Kenya this weekend to seek security assistance, in the aftermath of one of the deadliest gang attacks the country has seen in recent years.

Gran Grif gang members stormed through the western Artibonite town of Pont-Sonde on Thursday, killing at least 70 people, including children, and forcing over 6,000 residents to flee.

:: Saint-Marc, Haiti

Before his trip, Conille visited attack victims at a nearby hospital, where he said his government would allocate resources to bolster security in Pont-Sonde.

The massacre caused widespread shock in a country that has grown accustomed to outbreaks of violence with little police presence.

"The gangs control the area, they destroyed it," says local resident Roseline. "They shoot so many people, it hurt us a lot.”

While in the UAE, Conille said he will discuss with his counterpart on how to find regular flows of police to help Haiti's national police combat security.

He will then depart the UAE for Nairobi, Kenya.

:: October 5, 2024

“One of the aims of this trip is to go to Kenya to talk to President (William) Ruto about speeding up the deployment of Kenyan troops as quickly as possible to continue supporting the national police force.”

:: September 30, 2024

Last week, the U.N. Security Council authorized another year of international security force to help Haitian police fight gangs.

The mission has so far made little progress.

Promised international support still lags and nearby nations have deported migrants back home.

Only about 400 – mostly Kenyan – police officers are on the ground.

Thursday’s attack is the latest sign of a worsening conflict in Haiti, where armed gangs control most of Port-au-Prince and are expanding to nearby regions.


'They're all dead': Haitians mourn loved ones after massacre

Updated Mon 7 October 2024 

STORY: These isplaced Haitians are awaiting food handouts after being driven from their homes by gang violence.

Members of the Gran Grif gang stormed through their town of Pont-Sonde last week, killing at least 70 people and forcing over 6,000 residents to flee with few belongings.

Many of them came to the nearby city of Saint-Marc.

“I lost many many relatives,” says this woman displaced by the gang attack. “Nieces, cousins, aunts, uncles, they’re all dead. They were buried without a funeral.”

The massacre on Thursday was one of the deadliest gang attacks the Caribbean nation has seen in recent years.

The Saint Nicolas Hospital in Saint-Marc treated some of the victims.

One of them is Tcharlith Charles, who says he narrowly escaped death.

"As the gang member approached me, he didn’t point the barrel at me, the gun was facing the ground. I believe in God, I prayed as he tried to fire, it didn’t work."

Gran Grif gang leader Luckson Elan took responsibility for the massacre, saying it was in retaliation for civilians remaining passive while police and vigilante groups killed his soldiers.

Haitian gangs outgun and outnumber the national police force.

And they’ve grown in power as the government has weakened.

Promised international support still lags and nearby nations have deported migrants back to the country.

On Monday, the head of a rotating presidency that is running the country said he would not ratify the handover to the man in line to take over from him, citing unresolved corruption accusations against three other council members.

The break creates fresh uncertainty in the aftermath of the massacre.

The council was formed to replace the government of former Prime Minister Ariel Henry, who was forced to step down amid gang conflicts that have killed thousands and forced over 700,000 people from their homes




UN extends Kenyan policing mission in Haiti in futile attempt to tackle gangs

Amalendu Misra, Professor of International Politics, Lancaster University
Tue 8 October 2024

Haiti is being choked to death by its 200 or so violent criminal gangs. The latest figures to be released by the UN suggest that more than 3,600 people have been killed in the country since January, including over 100 children, while more than 500,000 Haitians have been displaced.

The situation prompted the country’s unelected prime minister, Ariel Henry, to resign in April. And, two months later, a Kenyan-led policing mission tasked with establishing order was deployed to the Caribbean nation. But the operation has so far struggled to rein in the gangs.

So, the UN security council unanimously adopted a resolution on September 30 to extend the mandate of the mission for another year. There was consensus that the law-and-order situation in Haiti is still deteriorating by the day.

The move to extend the mission is, in my opinion, hollow and fails to address the real challenges on the ground. It doesn’t tackle the rampant arms trafficking that is fuelling the violence in Haiti, nor does it secure the funding that will allow the mission to operate effectively.

Read more: How Haiti became a failed state

Haiti has no firearms or ammunition manufacturing capabilities. Yet the country’s gangs are brutalising the masses with all sorts of sophisticated small arms, including sniper rifles, pump-action shotguns and automatic weapons of every kind.

All of these weapons originate outside of the island, primarily from the US, but also from neighbouring Dominican Republic and Jamaica. Experts say lax firearm laws in the US states of Arizona, Florida and Georgia have created a sophisticated arms peddling racket into Haiti.

There is no exact number for how many trafficked firearms are currently in Haiti. But Haiti’s disarmament commission estimated in 2020 that there could be as many as 500,000 small arms in Haiti illegally – a number that is now likely to be even higher. This figure dwarfs the 38,000 registered firearms in the country.

The effectiveness of the Kenyan operation is also being undermined by gross resource limitations. While the mission was approved by the UN security council, it is not a UN operation and relies on voluntary financial contributions. It was originally promised US$600 million (£458 million) by UN member nations, but it has received only a fraction of that fund.

According to Human Rights Watch, the mission has so far received a mere US$85 million in contributions through a trust fund set up by the UN. Haiti’s former colonial master, France, and several other G7 countries have not been so forthcoming.

Inadequate funding has hindered the procurement of advanced weaponry, delayed the payment of police officers’ salaries and has prevented the deployment of more forces on the ground.

Just 400 Kenyan officers and two dozen policemen from Jamaica have arrived in Haiti so far. This is significantly less than the 2,500 officers pledged initially by various countries including Chad, Benin, Bangladesh and Barbados.

This financial woe has had a negative impact not only on the morale of Kenyan police officers, but it has also made Haitians despondent. Haitians are increasingly expressing impatience and disappointment with the Kenyan force in the media and online.

Some critics have accused the officers of being “tourists”, and have pointed out that the gangs have tightened their grip on large swathes of Haiti’s capital, Port-au-Prince, since the mission began.

The pessimism within Haiti was eloquently highlighted by the country’s interim prime minister, Garry Conille, on September 25. Speaking on the sidelines of the UN General Assembly meet in New York, he confessed: “We are nowhere near winning this, and the simple reality is that we won’t without your help.”
Advantage gangs

Finding the Kenyan-led operation a mere irritant, and not a worthy adversary, the gangs have only stepped up the ante. According to a spokesperson for Volker Türk, the UN’s human rights chief, the country’s armed gangs are now doing “everything they can” to maintain control. This has included using sexual assault to instil fear on local populations and expand their influence.

Some UN member nations, such as the US and Ecuador, have requested that a formal UN peacekeeping mission takes place. And, despite previous peacekeeping operations in the country being marred in controversy, Haiti has asked the UN to consider turning the current operation into a peacekeeping mission.

Read more: Haiti: first Kenyan police arrive to help tackle gang violence – but the prospects for success are slim

This mission, which would probably include a larger contingent of troops, should not face the same financial constraints as the current operation. It would have greater visibility on the ground, and more fire power and authority to tackle the gangs.

Past evidence also demonstrates that UN peackeeping missions significantly reduce civilian casualties, shorten conflicts and help make peace agreements stick.

However, the recent push for a peacekeeping mission was thwarted because of opposition by China and Russia, two of the five permanent veto-wielding members of the UN security council.

Beijing and Moscow have consistently argued that political conditions in Haiti are “not conducive” to a new UN peacekeeping operation. They have maintained that the current operation “should reach its full operational capacity before discussing such a transformation”.

Meanwhile, the gangs continue tightening their vice-like grip on the country, with accounts emerging of rampant sexual violence against civilians, the closure of humanitarian corridors, the extension of their territorial control and – of course – even more killings.

This article is republished from The Conversation under a Creative Commons license. Read the original article.

Amalendu Misra is a recipient of Nuffield Foundation and British Academy research grants.

Scientists stunned to witness two injured deep-sea ‘jelly’ creatures fuse into one

Vishwam Sankaran

THE INDEPENDENT
Tue 8 October 2024 

Comb jelly in seawater tank (Jokura et al., Current Biology (2024))

Scientists have spotted for the first time two deep-sea “jelly” creatures readily turn into one individual following an injury.

The study, published in the journal Current Biology, may lead to breakthroughs in wound healing, researchers say.

Comb jellies are gelatinous animals related to jellyfish with translucent bodies living in the depths of the sea waters worldwide.


While regular jellyfish use the same opening to eat food and release waste, comb jellies have an anal pore to eject digested food.

They are among some of the earliest animal groups to emerge on Earth with unique nervous systems and strange features compared to other creatures.

In the new study, scientists observed a population of comb jellies kept in a seawater tank in the lab.

Researchers spotted an unusually large individual in the tank with atypical organs.

The comb jelly seemed to have two rare-end lobes and two of a sensory structure called an apical organ, instead of the usual one.

Scientists wondered if this unusual individual arose from the fusion of two injured jellies.

Further studies on the species revealed that over a single night, two individuals can seamlessly become one “with no apparent separation between them”, according to researchers.

When scientists poked at one of the lobes, the whole of the fused creature appeared to react with a startling response, suggesting there was no separation.

“We were astonished to observe that mechanical stimulation applied to one side of the fused ctenophore resulted in a synchronized muscle contraction on the other side,” study co-author Kei Jokura from the the University of Exeter said.

“The data imply that two separate individuals can rapidly merge their nervous systems and share action potentials,” Dr Jokura said.

In just about two hours, 95 per cent of the fused animal’s muscle contractions were found to be completely synchronous.

When the creature fed on fluorescently labelled brine shrimp, scientists found that the food particles went down the fused canal revealing that the animal’s digestive system was also fused.

The comb jelly expelled waste products from both its anuses, but not at the same time.

Researchers are perplexed how the fusion of two individuals into one helps the comb jellies as a survival strategy.

They hope future studies can unravel gaps in knowledge about the species.

Scientists say the latest discovery can also help better understand how the immune system recognises an entity as foreign.

“The capability of transplanted tissue to functionally integrate is unclear in many organisms,” researchers write.

“Our observations warrant further research into understanding the evolution of self–nonself recognition,” they say.

A better understanding of this process could lead to developments in research on regeneration and transplantation.

“Unraveling the molecular mechanisms underlying this fusion could advance these crucial research areas,” Dr Jokura says.


Watch: Jellyfish fuse together when they’re injured, scientists discover by accident

Joe Pinkstone

TELEGRAPH
Mon 7 October 2024 

Two comb jelly fish quickly turned into one after suffering injuries


Some jellyfish can fuse together when injured to help their odds of survival, scientists have found.

Comb jellies have been caught on camera joining their movements into one, including a singular digestive tract to allow them to share food.

Scientists at Exeter University investigated this odd survival trait when they noticed one particularly large comb jelly in a seawater tank. The animal appeared to be one organism, but had two back ends and sensory structures.

Further experiments saw the team remove chunks of comb jellyfish bodies and put them in a tank and in nine out of 10 cases the two animals fused together.

When the animals were poked or prodded, the chimaera also responded as one entity, indicating a shared nervous system, the scientists say.

‘Rapidly merge’

“Our findings suggest that ctenophores may lack a system for allorecognition, which is the ability to distinguish between self and others,” said Dr Kei Jokura, the study’s author.

“Additionally, the data imply that two separate individuals can rapidly merge their nervous systems and share action potentials.”

Further study showed that two individuals become one overnight with no apparent separation.

Dr Jokura said: “We were astonished to observe that mechanical stimulation applied to one side of the fused ctenophore resulted in a synchronised muscle contraction on the other side.”

The fused comb jellies had some individual movements for the first hour post-blending, but within two hours 95 per cent of the fused animal’s muscle contractions were completely synchronous.

The study, published in Current Biology, fed the fused jellyfish glowing shrimp and saw the food passed through one digestive system.
Research on regeneration

However, the comb jelly expelled waste products from both its anuses at different times.

The scientific team say it is unclear how the fusion of two individuals into one functions as a way of survival, and hope that more research investigates the phenomenon.

Dr Jokura said: “The allorecognition mechanisms are related to the immune system, and the fusion of nervous systems is closely linked to research on regeneration.

“Unravelling the molecular mechanisms underlying this fusion could advance these crucial research areas.”


Comb jellies fuse together when injured, study finds

Nicola Davis Science correspondent

THE GUARDIAN
Mon 7 October 2024 

A comb jelly in the Bohol Sea, off the Philippines.Photograph: Alamy


It might not be what the Spice Girls envisaged when they sang 2 Become 1, but scientists have found comb jellies do actually fuse together if they are injured.

Researchers studying a species of the gelatinous marine invertebrates known as “sea walnuts” said they made the discovery after spotting an unusually shaped individual in the laboratory tank.

“I was very excited,” said Dr Oscar Arenas, co-author of the work, from the University of California, Berkeley.

Writing in the journal Current Biology, the team reports that, among other features, the creature appeared to have two “aboral ends”, or backsides.

In addition, Arenas said, the animal had two mouths – something the team had never seen before.

“This led us to wonder if it was the result of two independent animals fusing,” he said. “That same night, we began trying to replicate this observation.”

The team took pairs of sea walnuts – collected from different sites at different times – and, for each, removed part of the side of the body. Each pair was then pinned together overnight with their injuries touching.

The results revealed that, in nine out of 10 cases, the individuals had fused.

“Once we realised we could consistently reproduce the fusion, we shortened the time, and eventually we found the fusion occurred within a few hours in a petri dish,” Arenas said.

The team notes it is not the first time the grafting of comb jellies – or ctenophores – has been reported, but they say their experiments expand upon such observations.

Among other findings, the team found when they prodded one side of the fused creature both individuals jerked and contracted, a result that suggests the nervous systems of the pair might have merged, they say.

Arenas said the finding was exciting because very little is known about the ctenophore nervous system.

“Moreover, given that ctenophores are now considered descendants of the ancestors of all other animals, studying how their nervous system works is crucial for understanding the basic principles of neuronal function,” he said.

“Beyond that, our observations suggest that ctenophores might serve as an excellent model for investigating evolutionary processes of self-recognition systems and advancing our understanding of tissue grafting and regeneration in many tissues, including the nervous system.”

The idea that the nervous systems had merged was supported by the discovery that, one hour after the comb jellies were paired, their muscle contractions started to synchronise. An experiment involving six fused pairs suggested 95% of contractions within each pair were completely synchronous after two hours.

The researchers found that when they fed fluorescently labelled food to one of the comb jellies, particles passed into the digestive system of the other. The digested waste products, however, were expelled from both anuses in an unsynchronised manner.

Arenas said the study suggested comb jellies had few mechanisms for distinguishing their own tissues from those of others of the same species.

“I am convinced that it provides insight into the molecular mechanism of how single cells recognise themselves when they coalesce to become multicellular animals.”

UK

Water firms ordered by Ofwat to pay back customers more than £157m
Sky News
Updated Tue 8 October 2024 at 3:23 am GMT-6·3-min read




Water firms in England and Wales have been ordered to return £157.6m to customers due to their poor performance.

Ofwat said the money would come off bills for households and businesses in 2025-26, with the total rebates set to be calculated in December.

Last year, the water regulator ordered firms to repay £114m as part of a similar move.

Ofwat said the results of its annual report on water company performance showed "disappointing results" and that money alone was not enough to address the problems facing the industry.

The regulator also warned that firms were "falling further behind on key targets", with nine out of 11 suppliers experiencing an increase in "pollution incidents" in 2023.

It comes as water bills in England and Wales are set to rise by an average of 21% over the next five years.

Ofwat's chief executive David Black said: "This year's performance report is stark evidence that money alone will not bring the sustained improvements that customers rightly expect.

"It is clear that companies need to change and that has to start with addressing issues of culture and leadership. Too often we hear that weather, third parties or external factors are blamed for shortcomings."

He added: "Companies must implement actions now to improve performance, be more dynamic, agile and on the front foot of issues. And not wait until the government or regulators tell them to act."

Ofwat's report also found that while there had been progress made on leaks, firms had only managed a 6% annual reduction – against a target of 16% by 2025.

However, four water companies – South East Water, South West Water, Thames Water and Yorkshire Water – were upgraded by the regulator from "lagging behind" to "average", but it said performance improvements were inconsistent across the sector.

Anglian Water, Welsh Water and Southern Water were all categorised as "lagging behind".

No firm managed to achieve the regulator's top rating of "leading".

Matthew Topham from We Own It, which is campaigning for the nationalisation of the water industry, said: "Today's action, while a welcome respite from skyrocketing bills, exposes the Catch-22 at the heart of water privatisation.

"Water firms, which desperately need cash to stay afloat, let alone invest to end sewage pollution, will rightly hand back millions they've unfairly taken from the public.

"[But] rather than punishing the shareholders behind these failures, our rivers and seas will suffer from even greater underfunding, and the public from future bill hikes in following years, to cover these costs."

Earlier this summer, the regulator announced it was investigating all wastewater companies due to concerns that some may not be meeting their obligation to minimise pollution.

In August, Ofwat announced that three firms - Northumbrian Water, Thames Water and Yorkshire Water - were facing a combined fine of £168m for a series of failings, including over sewage treatment.

Last year, industry body Water UK apologised on behalf of firms for "not acting quickly enough" on spills.

Years of under-investment by privately-run firms combined with ageing water infrastructure, a growing population and more extreme weather caused by climate change have seen the quality of England's rivers, lakes and oceans plummet in recent years.

Some water utilities are also creaking under high levels of debt or face criticism over dividends to shareholders and executive bonuses.

Environment Secretary Steve Reed said: "Our waterways should be a source of national pride, but years of pollution and underinvestment have left them in a perilous state.

"The public deserves better. That's why we are placing water companies under special measures through the Water Bill, which will strengthen regulation including new powers to ban the payment of bonuses for polluting water bosses and bring criminal charges against persistent law breakers.

"We will be carrying out a full review of the water sector to shape further legislation that will fundamentally transform how our entire water system works and clean up our rivers, lakes and seas for good."

Earth’s ‘vital signs’ show humanity’s future in balance, say climate experts

Damian Carrington Environment editor

THE GUARDIAN
Tue 8 October 2024 


The report said the Earth was entering a ‘critical and unpredictable new phase of the climate crisis’.Photograph: Angelos Tzortzinis/AFP/Getty Images

Many of the Earth’s “vital signs” have hit record extremes, indicating that “the future of humanity hangs in the balance”, a group of the world’s most senior climate experts has said.

More and more scientists are now looking into the possibility of societal collapse, said the report, which assessed 35 vital signs in 2023 and found that 25 were worse than ever recorded, including carbon dioxide levels and human population. This indicates a “critical and unpredictable new phase of the climate crisis”, they said.

The temperature of the Earth’s surface and oceans hit an all-time high, driven by record burning of fossil fuels, the report found. Human population is increasing at the rate of approximately 200,000 people a day and the number of cattle and sheep by 170,000 a day, all adding to record greenhouse gas emissions.


The scientists identified 28 feedback loops, including increasing emissions from melting permafrost, which could help trigger multiple tipping points, such as the collapse of the massive Greenland icecap.

Global heating is driving increasingly deadly extreme weather across the world, they said, including hurricanes in the US and 50C heatwaves in India, with billions of people now exposed to extreme heat.

The scientists said their goal was “to provide clear, evidence-based insights that inspire informed and bold responses from citizens to researchers and world leaders – we just want to act truthfully and tell it like it is”. Decisive, fast action was imperative, they said, to limit human suffering, including slashing fossil fuel burning and methane emissions, cutting overconsumption and waste by the rich, and encouraging a switch towards plant-based foods.

“We’re already in the midst of abrupt climate upheaval, which jeopardises life on Earth like nothing humans have ever seen,” said Prof William Ripple, at Oregon State University (OSU), US, who co-led the group. “Ecological overshoot – taking more than the Earth can safely give – has pushed the planet into climatic conditions more threatening than anything witnessed even by our prehistoric relatives.”

“Climate change has already displaced millions of people, with the potential to displace hundreds of millions or even billions,” he said. “That would likely lead to greater geopolitical instability, possibly even partial societal collapse.”

The assessment, published in the journal Bioscience, said the concentrations of CO2 and methane in the atmosphere were at record levels. Methane is a potent greenhouse gas, 80 times more powerful than CO2 over 20 years, and is emitted by fossil fuel operations, waste dumps, cattle and rice fields. “The growth rate of methane emissions has been accelerating, which is extremely troubling,” said Dr Christopher Wolf, formerly at OSU and who co-led the team.Interactive

While wind and solar energy grew by 15% in 2023, the researchers said, coal, oil and gas still dominated. They said there was “stiff resistance from those benefiting financially from the current fossil-fuel based system”.

The report included the results of a Guardian survey of hundreds of senior climate experts in May, which found only 6% believed that the internationally agreed limit of 1.5C would be achieved. “The fact is that avoiding every tenth of a degree of warming is critically important,” the researchers said. “Each tenth places an extra 100 million people into unprecedented hot average temperatures.”

The researchers said global heating was part of a wider crisis, which included pollution, the destruction of nature and rising economic inequality: “Climate change is a glaring symptom of a deeper systemic issue: ecological overshoot, [which] is an inherently unstable state that cannot persist indefinitely. As the risk of Earth’s climate system switching to a catastrophic state rises, more and more scientists have begun to research the possibility of societal collapse. Even in the absence of global collapse, climate change could cause many millions of additional deaths by 2050. We need bold, transformative change.”Interactive

Among the policies the scientists recommend for rapid adoption are gradually reducing the human population through empowering education and rights for girls and women, protecting restoring, or rewilding ecosystems, and integrating climate change education into global curriculums to boost awareness and action.

The assessment concludes: “Only through decisive action can we safeguard the natural world, avert profound human suffering, and ensure that future generations inherit the livable world they deserve. The future of humanity hangs in the balance.”

The world’s nations will meet at the UN’s Cop29 climate summit in Azerbaijan in November. “It’s imperative that huge progress is made,” Ripple said.

Scientists recently checked up on Earth's 'vital signs.' So how are we doing?

CBC
Tue 8 October 2024 

Cows roam an area of the Amazon rainforest that's been recently deforested in Brazil. In recent years, the rate of deforestation has declined, which the lead author of a new report that checks up on Earth's 'vital signs' attributes to new conservationist leadership in Brazil. (Eraldo Peres/Associated Press - image credit)


Scientists have given the planet a check-up — and all is not well.

A major new report on what the authors describe as the world's "vital signs," published Tuesday in the journal BioScience, presents a grim picture of where the planet is headed.

The assessment was prepared by some of the world's top climate scientists and builds on a previous analysis backed by more than 15,000 scientists.

Entitled "The 2024 state of the climate report: Perilous times," the assessment found that 25 of the 35 of the measurements used to track the planet's climate risk, from ocean temperatures to tree cover loss, are at record levels.

These measures look at both how humans are changing the planet, and how the planet is responding.

"We are on the brink of an irreversible climate disaster," the authors wrote. "This is a global emergency beyond any doubt."

At the same time, the report also found some surprising signs of progress that experts say point to a path forward. And that's where we'll start.

Some environmental progress

Two charts in the report show signs of environmental progress.

The first looked at how much of the Amazon rainforest has been lost every year. In recent years, the rate of deforestation has declined.

William Ripple, lead author and professor at Oregon State University, calls the Amazon development "really important good news," which he attributes to new conservationist leadership in Brazil.

The rainforest stores an estimated 123 billion tonnes of carbon, according to the U.S. National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, roughly equivalent to four years of global emissions if it were to be released as CO2.

The other chart looks at how much energy consumption can be attributed to renewable energy.

The production of renewables has surged, as the chart shows — although the amount of oil, coal and gas also continues to climb. Climate change is driven primarily by the burning of fossil fuels.

"Solar and wind energy are increasing dramatically," Ripple said. "It's still many times lower than fossil fuel, but the trend is deep and upward — and that is promising."

Emissions still climbing

Overall, however, we are emitting more greenhouse gases than ever, on both a global and individual level.

Prof. Sarah Burch, executive director of the Waterloo Climate Institute, says she sees a glimmer of hope in the face of these numbers.

Burch said even though fossil-fuel consumption hasn't levelled off or declined, it is slowing down — and ultimately that could lead to a more clear shift in how we produce energy.

"That's just how things change," explained Burch, who was not involved with the report.

She warns that this doesn't mean we shouldn't be "more ambitious, more creative and more honest about our progress. But we are making progress."

Climate-related disasters

These next charts from the report illustrate how devastating climate-related disasters have been.

Wildfires and floods are on the rise around the world, and the planet is experiencing more and more days of extreme heat.

The Maligne Lodge hotel is one of the structures that burned in Jasper, Alta., after a wildfire reached the townsite Wednesday evening.

The Maligne Lodge hotel is one of the structures that burned in Jasper, Alta., after a wildfire reached the townsite this July, resulting in $880 million in insured damages. Given the scale of fires in 2023, this year's wildfire season wasn't quite as bad, but it was still quietly devastating. (Name withheld)

"We're having these heat waves and floods and hurricanes and they're becoming more frequent and more intense and leaving trails of devastation worldwide," said Prof. Jillian Gregg, an ecologist at Oregon State University who also contributed to the report.

Canada has seen this first-hand, with the 2023 wildfire season smashing records, followed by another quietly devastating year in 2024.

The increase in extreme weather, Ripple says, is exemplified by last month's Hurricane Helene, which devastated parts of Florida and North Carolina.

He pointed out that even Asheville, N.C., which had been celebrated as a "climate haven" because of its temperate weather, wasn't safe from a storm like Helene, which was made more powerful more quickly by our warming oceans.

We're growing, we're eating

As these disasters play out, the world's population continues to grow, and we are producing — and eating — more livestock every year.

The ruminant livestock population, which includes animals such as cows, sheep and goats, is a major contributor to greenhouse gas emissions.

It is increasing at a pace of roughly 170,000 animals per day, according to the report.

While fossil fuels are the main driver of climate change, agricultural emissions, which include methane, are also a significant contributor.

According to Our World in Data's analysis of UN figures, an estimated 80 per cent of agricultural land on the planet is used for grazing and growing feed for livestock.

A negative feedback loop occurs as food production is then threatened by drought and other extreme weather events, strengthened and lengthened by climate change.

Funding the fuel

The last chart shows the subsidies provided to the fossil fuel industry, a dynamic experts say has, for years, delayed the transition to renewable energy.

Many international organizations have called for an end to fossil fuel subsidies, and according to the International Monetary Fund (IMF), global subsidies surpassed $7 trillion US for the first time last year, with Canada doling out $2 billion in fossil fuel subsidies.

"It's not remotely a level playing field," said Naomi Oreskes, another co-author and a history of science professor at Harvard University.

"If we were to wipe out all subsidies all together, renewable energies would beat the pants off of fossil fuels."

UK Government backs police action against shows of support for Hezbollah

Ellie Ng, PA
Sun, October 6, 2024

The Government has backed police to take action against protesters who show support for Hezbollah, after one man was arrested for allegedly shouting support for the banned organisation during a march in central London.

Tens of thousands of pro-Palestinian demonstrators marched through the capital on Saturday, meeting counter-protests at several points on their route.

The Metropolitan Police arrested two people on suspicion of supporting a proscribed organisation, with one man held after allegedly shouting support for Hezbollah near a pro-Israel counter-demonstration, according to the force.

Science and Technology Secretary Peter Kyle said the police have ‘our full support’ to take action against people carrying signs suggesting support for Hezbollah (Jordan Pettitt/PA)


Another man was arrested on suspicion of wearing or displaying an article indicating support for Hamas, which is also a proscribed organisation, after he was allegedly spotted wearing a parachute, the Met said.

Proscription is the banning of an organisation based on an assessment that it commits or participates in, prepares for, promotes or encourages, or is otherwise concerned in terrorism, according to the Home Office.

It is a crime in the UK to belong to, express support, invite support for or arrange a meeting to back any proscribed organisation.

Images of protesters holding placards that read “I love Hezbollah” have circulated online, and police said they are working to identify those involved.

Counter pro-Israeli demonstrations took place in London on Saturday (Ben Bauer/PA)

In an update on Sunday afternoon, the Met said a “number of further potential offences have come to light on social media” and released a series of images in an appeal for the public’s help to identify people.

Science and Technology Secretary Peter Kyle said the police have “our full support” should they take action against people carrying signs suggesting support for Hezbollah.

Speaking to the BBC’s Sunday With Laura Kuenssberg programme, he said: “Yesterday in the protests there was a lot of peaceful protest but there were people who were carrying signs as the one that you have just described.

“That is a criminal act, supporting a proscribed terrorist organisation such as Hezbollah is a criminal act.”


He added: “The Home Secretary, the Prime Minister said very clearly yesterday that the police have our full support should they take action against people carrying signs like that.”

On Saturday, Home Secretary Yvette Cooper posted to X: “Hezbollah is a proscribed terrorist organisation. Promoting it in Britain is a criminal offence.

“Extremism has no place on Britain’s streets. The police have our support in pursuing those breaking the law today.”

Police made 17 arrests in total around the demonstrations in London on Saturday, as part of a “significant” policing operation in place across the capital in response to planned protest and memorial events marking the anniversary of the October 7 attacks in Israel.

There were eight arrests on suspicion of public order offences, four of which were allegedly racially aggravated.

Three people were arrested on suspicion of assaulting an emergency worker, three arrested on suspicion of common assault and one person was arrested on suspicion of breaching a Public Order Act condition.

Tess Yasser, of the Palestinian Youth Movement, told the PA news agency on Saturday: “We’re here today as part of the international day of action that the Palestinian people have called for to demand a full arms embargo.

“We’re commemorating one year of genocide, one year of resistance. We’ve seen that the genocide has been a form of collective punishment on the people of Gaza who dare to resist a 17-year siege on them which has been inflicted by Israel.

People took part in a silent funeral procession through Edinburgh city centre as part of the Scottish National Demonstration for Palestine on Saturday (Lesley Martin/PA)

“They will continue to resist until the genocide is over and they see the full liberation of their lands and their people.”

Pro-Palestinian demonstrators also took to the streets in Edinburgh and Dublin on Saturday.

On Sunday afternoon, a memorial event will be held in London’s Hyde Park, organised by the Board of Deputies of British Jews, the Jewish Leadership Council and other groups.

Human rights NGOs say social media platforms continue to censor pro-Palestine content

Anna Desmarais
Mon 7 October 2024 


Human rights NGOs say social media platforms continue to censor pro-Palestine content


Human rights NGOs say little progress has been made to stop the digital censorship of pro-Palestine voices on social media networks, one year into the escalation of the Israel-Hamas conflict.

The war broke out last year when Palestinian militant group Hamas launched an attack in southern Israel where they took 250 people hostage and killed 1,200.

Israel responded with air strikes and by sending ground troops to the Gaza Strip, with the war killing around 42,000 Palestinians, according to the Gaza health ministry.

Since the October 7 attack, the Palestinian Observatory of Digital Rights Violations has recorded more than 1,350 instances of online censorship from major platforms through an open call on their website through July 1, 2024, with most of the reports related to Meta, TikTok, X, and Youtube.

The sample includes stories of suspensions, content takedowns, and account restrictions.

Related

One year on: How Hamas' attack on Israel triggered a regional conflict in the Middle East

The Arab Center for the Advancement of Social Media (7amleh) interpreted these results in a September report as a “deliberate decision” to “aggressively over-moderat(e) Palestine-related content”.

“When online platforms allow hate speech and incitement on their platforms, they could be guilty of helping spread content that dehumanises Palestinians and justifies their collective punishments,” the report reads.

Pro-Israeli groups have, however, criticised what they say are attempts to roll back social media restrictions on antisemitism.
How content or accounts get removed

The NGO Human Rights Watch previously documented how users had their content blocked or removed by Meta in a report released last December.

Users would first have a single post, story or comment that referenced Palestine reviewed then removed with little to no explanation pointing to a specific policy breach, according to Rasha Younes, a senior researcher with Human Rights Watch.

Then, Younes said they heard from users who had their accounts restricted from commenting on other pro-Palestine content or disabled for anywhere from 24 hours to three months.

There are others who described being “shadowbanned,” the idea that their posts were less visible to other users on both Instagram and Facebook, Younes continued.

Related

Rallies held across Europe ahead of Hamas-Israel war anniversary

Younes said users who tried to challenge these restrictions found the “we made a mistake?” button disabled, which she believes “violates Meta’s own policies”.

For those that are blocked, Younes said they “might not have any place to go” to express their political activism or lived reality during the conflict.

Both HRW and 7amleh’s reports rely on direct user experiences, but researchers from both groups want to push social media companies like Meta to release data about which posts are being blocked by automatic moderation so they can do more in-depth research.

“What we’re seeing is people who work in these companies, they want these changes … but unfortunately they are not the decision-makers, so they can’t really change anything,” Taysir Mathlouthi, 7amleh’s EU Advocacy Officer, told Euronews Next.
Tech companies ‘refining their approach’ during the conflict

Meta and TikTok declined to answer any direct questions about their content moderation policies and instead referred Euronews Next to recent reports about their responses.

In Meta’s report from September, the company said they’ve been refining their approach to “reflect the changing dynamics” of the humanitarian crisis in Gaza and hostage-taking by Hamas.

But, the company admitted that some of their policy decisions, like lowering thresholds for automated enforcement, “inadvertently limit(s) discussion of critical world events”.

A Meta spokesperson told Euronews last year, however, that the HRW report “ignores the realities of enforcing our policies globally during a fast-moving, highly polarised and intense conflict,” adding that “the implication that we deliberately and systemically suppress a particular voice is false”.

Related
Meta’s social media platforms are systemically censoring pro-Palestine content, NGO finds

For TikTok, the company said in an October 2 report they’ve taken down 4.7 million videos and suspended 300,000 livestreams between October 7, 2023 and September 15, 2024, for either promoting Hamas, hate speech or misinformation.

Earlier this year, the company said they added “Zionist” content to their hate speech policy “when it is used … [as a] proxy with Jewish or Israeli identity”.

“This policy was implemented early this year after observing a rise in how the word was increasingly used in a hateful way,” TikTok said.

Euronews Next reached out to YouTube and X but did not receive an immediate reply.
EU urged to ‘pressure’ social media companies

There’s a responsibility that the EU needs to take on as well, even if the conflict isn’t directly within their borders, according to 7amleh’s Mathlouthi.

The European Commission recently passed the Digital Services Act (DSA) which introduced new mechanisms to fight illegal online content, according to a description of the new law.

However, Mathlouthi said there’s no real definition of what the law considers “incitement or harmful content,” which makes it difficult to put pressure on these big companies through the act.

WAIT, WHAT?!

NSW premier says police should be able to ban pro-Palestine protests because they are too expensive

Catie McLeod
Mon 7 October 2024 

 Guardian Australia

Protesters in Hyde Park on Sunday 6 October. NSW premier Chris Minns says weekly rallies are too expensive for police.Photograph: Don Arnold/Getty Images


The New South Wales premier, Chris Minns, says policing pro-Palestine protests has cost the state $5m this year and the force should be able to shut them down because of the “huge drain on the public purse”.

Minns has ordered a review of police resources used at the protests, which have taken place in Sydney’s CBD every weekend for the past year following the Hamas attacks on 7 October and Israel’s subsequent strikes on Gaza.

But critics on Tuesday said the premier was continuing to “disregard human rights and civil liberties” and the state was trying to “criminalise protesters”.

Minns told 2GB radio that police resources were “stretched” and he believed taxpayers would want the force to deal with crime instead of patrolling pro-Palestine rallies.

“When you’ve got someone putting in an application every seven days for 51 weeks to march through Sydney streets, this is costing millions of dollars, and I think taxpayers should be in a position to be able to say, we would prefer that money spent on roadside breath testing, domestic violence investigations [and] knife crimes,” the premier said.

“It’s my view that police should be able to be in a position to deny a request for a march due to stretched police resourcing.”

NSW police had a significant presence at Sunday’s pro-Palestine protest in Hyde Park and a vigil on Monday after last week taking supreme court action to try to stop the demonstrations.

Minns had argued the Sunday rally and the candlelight vigil on Monday should not go ahead.

Amal Naser and Josh Lees from the Palestine Action Group, which organises the weekly rallies, accused Minns and “others in the political and media establishment” of participating in a “racist scare campaign”.

“Over the weekend we saw thousands of police deployed in an outrageous and racist law and order campaign which sought to criminalise protesters who have been peacefully rallying for 12 months,” they said in a statement on Tuesday.

“The government is terrified that dissent to Israel’s genocide has never been so large and want to repress us so we cannot utilise the masses and people power to stop this genocide.

“We remind you, that after 7 October [2023] NSW premier Chris Minns declared that we will never march the streets. We defied this and shut down the streets for 52 consecutive weeks.”

The Israeli government maintains its military operations are a legitimate response to the Hamas attacks and has dismissed allegations it is committing genocide as “false” and “outrageous”.

NSW police have charged two men for allegedly displaying Nazi symbols at Sunday’s rally but said overall they were pleased with the behaviour of the crowd – which they estimated at 10,000 people.

In NSW, the police commissioner must approve a permit known as a “form 1” or a “notice of intention to hold a public assembly” lodged by organisers for a protest to be considered lawful.

Minns on Tuesday said police should be able to deny a form 1 application based on the cost to the force of policing the event.

The permit system allows organisers to disobey laws against blocking traffic, for example. Last week, the NSW Council of Civil Liberties president, Lydia Shelly, said it was an “international embarrassment” that “lent itself to litigation”.

Shelly on Tuesday said charging people to stage protests would create a “two-tiered” system where only the wealthy could demonstrate.

“Singling out protests as a financial burden completely flies in the face of government obligations under human rights laws and protections for ordinary citizens,” she said.

“Just when you think that things couldn’t be worse in relation to a premier that seems to completely disregard human rights and civil liberties in this state, an idea like this pops up.”

Minns said the government had to “make decisions about where police are spending their funds”.

“If this is taking place every single weekend, it’s coming at the expense of some other law enforcement across the state,” he said.

“If you’re putting on a rock concert on the weekend … you would have to pay NSW police in order to keep the public safe.”

NSW police provides most policing services free of charge but says some services “go beyond these responsibilities” so it charges clients a fee.

The system, known as user-pays policing, requires major sporting events, festivals and concerts to pay themselves for police resources.

Related: Guardian Essential poll: more than half of Australians approve of Albanese government’s response to Israel-Gaza war

NSW police have previously been accused of “price gouging” and operating a “rort” that threatened the viability of music festivals because they charged thousands of dollars more than their counterparts in other states to patrol events.

The state opposition leader, Mark Speakman, said the Minns Labor government should change the law to impose user-pays policing charges on all repeat protests.

“Every dollar that’s spent on policing serial protests is a dollar that could be going towards improving the lives of NSW families,” the Liberal leader said on Tuesday.

The NSW Greens justice spokesperson, Sue Higginson, said Minns knew the organisers of the weekly pro-Palestine rallies wouldn’t have the means to cover user-pays fees.

“Threatening to interfere with the right to protest creates a dangerous environment where important voices of democracy are strangled out of existence,” she said

“We want more regulation, we want more control and we want more transparency and this will never be achieved without pressure."

“We want more regulation, we want more control and we want more transparency and this will never be achieved without pressure,” Mathlouthi said.

Last October, the EU asked X, Meta and TikTok for information about how they were regulating content about the conflict. That’s the first step in figuring out whether a full investigation is needed under the DSA.

In December, the European Commission opened formal proceedings against X to address, among other concerns, “the dissemination of illegal content in the context of Hamas’ terrorist attacks against Israel,” a press release said at the time.

The EU has since launched formal investigations against Meta, TikTok and TikTok Lite for other possible DSA breaches but did not explicitly mention Israel or Palestine-related content as one of their reasons.

Euronews Next reached out to the European Commission to confirm whether the information they received from Meta and TikTok about their moderation policies on the Israel-Hamas war was satisfactory but did not receive an immediate reply.

OLDE TESTAMENT ISRAEL IS BACK

Israel's strikes are shifting the power balance in the Middle East, with US support

Ellen Knickmeyer

AP
Mon, October 7, 2024 



The Associated Press

WASHINGTON (AP) — Israeli military strikes are targeting Iran's armed allies across a nearly 2,000-mile stretch of the Middle East and threatening Iran itself. The efforts raise the possibility of an end to two decades of Iranian ascendancy in the region, to which the 2003 U.S. invasion of Iraq inadvertently gave rise.

In Washington, Tel Aviv and Jerusalem, and Arab capitals, opponents and supporters of Israel's offensive are offering clashing ideas about what the U.S. should do next, as its ally racks up tactical successes against Hezbollah in Lebanon and the Houthis in Yemen and presses its yearlong campaign to crush Hamas in Gaza.

Israel should get all the support it needs from the United States until Iran's government “follows other dictatorships of the past into the dustbin of history,” said Richard Goldberg, a senior adviser at Washington's conservative-leaning Foundation for the Defense of Democracies — calls echoed by some Israeli political figures.


Going further, Yoel Guzansky, a former senior staffer at Israel’s National Security Council, called for the Biden administration to join Israel in direct attacks in Iran. That would send "the right message to the Iranians — ‘Don’t mess with us,’'' Guzansky said.

Critics, however, highlight lessons from the U.S. military campaign in Iraq and toppling of Saddam Hussein, when President George W. Bush ignored Arab warnings that the Iraqi dictator was the region's indispensable counterbalance to Iranian influence. They caution against racking up military victories without adequately considering the risks, end goals or plans for what comes next, and warn of unintended consequences.

Ultimately, Israel “will be in a situation where it can only protect itself by perpetual war,” said Vali Nasr, who was an adviser to the Obama administration. Now a professor at Johns Hopkins School of Advanced International Studies, or SAIS, he has been one of the leading documenters of the rise of Iranian regional influence since the U.S. invasion of Iraq.

With Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu giving limited weight to Biden administration calls for restraint, the United States and its partners in the Middle East are “at the mercy of how far Bibi Netanyahu will push it,” Nasr said, referring to the Israeli leader by his nickname.

“It's as if we hadn't learned the lessons, or the folly, of that experiment ... in Iraq in 2003 about reshaping the Middle East order,” said Randa Slim, a fellow at SAIS and researcher at the Washington-based Middle East Institute.

Advocates of Israel’s campaign hope for the weakening of Iran and its armed proxies that attack the U.S., Israel and their partners, oppress civil society and increasingly are teaming up with Russia and other Western adversaries.

Opponents warn that military action without resolving the grievances of Palestinians and others risks endless and destabilizing cycles of war, insurgency and extremist violence, and Middle East governments growing more repressive to try to control the situation.

And there’s the threat that Iran develops nuclear weapons to try to ensure its survival. Before the Israeli strikes on Hezbollah, Iranian leaders concerned about Israel’s offensives had made clear that they were interested in returning to negotiations with the U.S. on their nuclear program and claimed interest in improved relations overall.

In just weeks, Israeli airstrikes and intelligence operations have devastated the leadership, ranks and arsenals of Lebanon-based Hezbollah — which had been one of the Middle East’s most powerful fighting forces and Iran's overseas bulwark against attacks on Iranian territory — and hit oil infrastructure of Yemen's Iran-allied Houthis.

A year of Israeli airstrikes in Gaza appears to have reduced the leadership of Iranian-allied Hamas to a few survivors hiding in underground tunnels. However, Israeli forces again engaged in heavy fighting there this week, and Hamas was able to fire rockets at Tel Aviv in a surprising show of enduring strength on the Oct. 7 anniversary of the militant group's attack on Israel, which started the war.

Anticipated Israeli counterstrikes on Iran could accelerate regional shifts in power. The response would follow Iran launching ballistic missiles at Israel last week in retaliation for killings of Hezbollah and Hamas leaders.

It also could escalate the risk of all-out regional war that U.S. President Joe Biden — and decades of previous administrations — worked to avert.

The expansion of Israeli attacks since late last month has sidelined mediation by the U.S., Egypt and Qatar for a cease-fire and hostage release deal in Gaza. U.S. leaders say Israel did not warn them before striking Hezbollah leaders in Lebanon but have defended the surge in attacks, while still pressing for peace.

Vice President Kamala Harris, the Democratic presidential nominee, said in an interview with CBS' “60 Minutes” aired Monday that the U.S. was dedicated to supplying Israel with the military aid needed to protect itself but would keep pushing to end the conflict.

“We’re not going to stop in terms of putting that pressure on Israel and in the region, including Arab leaders,” she said.

Israel’s expanded strikes raise for many what is the tempting prospect of weakening Iran’s anti-Western, anti-Israel alliance with like-minded armed groups in Lebanon, Iraq, Syria and Yemen to governments in Russia and North Korea.

Called the “Axis of Resistance," Iran's military alliances grew — regionally, then globally — after the U.S. invasion of Iraq removed Saddam, who had fought an eight-year war against Iran's ambitious clerical regime.

Advocates of the U.S. invasion of Iraq, and overthrow of Saddam, said correctly that an Iraqi democracy would take hold.

But the unintended effects of the U.S. intervention were even bigger, including the rise of Iran's Axis of Resistance and new extremist groups, including the Islamic State.

“An emboldened and expansionist Iran appears to be the only victor” of the 2003 Iraq war, notes a U.S. Army review of lessons learned.

“Two decades ago, who could have seen a day when Iran was supporting Russia with arms? The reason is because of its increased influence” after the U.S. overthrow of Saddam, said Ihsan Alshimary, professor of political science at Baghdad University.

Even more than in 2003, global leaders are offering little clear idea on how the shifts in power that Israel’s military is putting in motion will end — for Iran, Israel, the Middle East at large, and the United States.

Iran and its allies are being weakened, said Goldberg, at the Foundation for the Defense of Democracies. So is U.S. influence as it appears to be dragged along by Israel, Nasr said.

The conflict could end up hurting Israel if it bogs down in a ground war in Lebanon, for example, said Mehran Kamrava, a professor and Middle East expert at Georgetown University in Qatar.

After four decades of deep animosity between Israeli and Iranian leaders, “the cold war between them has turned into a hot war. And this is significantly changing — is bound to change — the strategic landscape in the Middle East,” he said.

“We are certainly at the precipice of change," Kamrava said. But “the direction and nature of that change is very hard to predict at this stage."

___

AP reporters Julia Frankel in Jerusalem and Qassim Abdul-Zahra in Baghdad contributed.

Ellen Knickmeyer, The Associated Press

Israel’s lack of vision in multi-fronted war may be fatally exposed

Peter Beaumont in Jerusalem
Sun 6 October 2024
THE GUARDIAN

Israeli troops gather at the southern Lebanon border.Photograph: Atef Safadi/EPA


As Israelis approached the beginning of the high holy days last week on the eve of Rosh Hashanah, the news began to circulate. Several IDF units fighting on the border with Lebanon had taken casualties in at least two different locations. Soldiers had died in combat, and many were wounded.

The confirmation of the wounded and dead, if not the circumstances served as a stark reminder for Israelis of the blows that come in war, even as Israel’s punishing air offensive has killed hundreds of Lebanese and wounded more. The soldiers’ deaths came after two weeks in which Israel struck a series of blows against Hezbollah, including the assassination of the group’s leader, Sayyed Hassan Nasrallah, and most of the top leadership.

Underlining that sense of hazard was another story that revealed itself slowly last week: how the wave of Iranian missiles launched against Israel had not been as inconsequential as initially claimed by Israel’s leadership, and instead shown that a large-scale strike could not only overwhelm Israel’s anti-missile defences but that Tehran could accurately explode warheads on the targets it was aiming for, in this case several military bases.


All of which raises serious questions as Israel prepares for a “significant” military response to Iran for the its missile attack.

A year into Israel’s fast metastasising multi-front war that now includes Iran, Lebanon and Gaza, Yemen, Syria and Iraq, Israel’s undoubted military and intelligence superiority is faltering on several fronts.

In Israel’s expanding war, as Israeli security analyst Michael Milshtein told the Guardian last week, there have been “tactical victories” but “no strategic vision” and certainly not one that unites the different fronts.

What is clear is that the conflict of the last year has seriously exposed Israel’s newly minted operational doctrine, which had planned for fighting short decisive wars largely against non-state actors armed with missiles, with the aim of avoiding being drawn into extended conflicts of attrition.

Instead, the opposite has happened. While Israeli officials have tried to depict Hamas as defeated as a military force – a questionable characterisation in the first place – they concede that it survives as a guerilla organisation in Gaza, although degraded.

Even as Israel has killed more than 40,000 Palestinians in Gaza, levelled large areas of the coastal strip and displaced a population assailed by hunger, death and sickness on multiple occasions, Israeli armour was assaulting areas of the strip once more this weekend in a new operation into northern Gaza to prevent Hamas regrouping.

Hezbollah too, despite sustaining heavy losses in its leadership, retains a potency fighting on its own terrain in the villages of southern Lebanon where it has had almost two decades to prepare for this conflict.

All of which raises serious questions as to whether Israel has any clearer vision for its escalating conflict with Iran.

A long-distance war with Iran, many experts are beginning to suggest, could also devolve into a more attritional conflict despite the relative imbalances in capabilities, even as Israel continues to plan for the scale of its own response to last week’s missile attack.

Speaking to Bloomberg TV, Carmiel Arbit, a senior fellow at the Atlantic Council’s Middle East programme, described that dynamic. “I think we are going to be looking at this as the new reality for a long time,” Arbit predicted.

“I think the question is simply going to be how often is the tit for tat going to happen, and is it just going to be tit for tat, or is this going to escalate only further. And I think the hope of the international community at this point is to avert a world war three rather than this smaller-scale war of attrition.”

Nicole Grajewski, a fellow at of the Carnegie Endowment for Peace, echoes that view in part, while cautioning that an extended series of exchanges could push Tehran to a less predictable reaction.

“The continued asymmetrical tit-for-tat between Iran and Israel risks devolving into a futile cycle of Iranian missile strikes and Israeli retaliations, each exposing Tehran’s military limitations while failing to alter the balance – and potentially driving Iran toward more desperate and unpredictable measures in its quest for credible deterrence.”

“In the long term – and it cannot be assumed that the Israeli-Iranian conflict will end soon,” wrote Haaretz’s main military analyst, Amos Harel, “there will be competition between the production rate and sophistication of Iran’s offensive systems on one side and of Israel’s interception systems on the other.”

With Israel now so deeply immersed in a widening conflict, it is unclear whether it can escape what Anthony Pfaff, the director of the Strategic Studies Institute at the US Army War College, in August called the “escalatory trap”.

“If Israel escalates,” wrote Pfaff, “it fuels the escalatory spiral that could, at some point, exceed its military capability to manage.

“If it chooses the status quo, where Hamas remains capable of terrorist operations, then it has done little to improve its security situation. Neither outcome achieves Israel’s security objectives … Forcing the choice between escalation and the status quo gives Iran, and, by extension, Hezbollah, an advantage and is a key feature of its proxy strategy.”

Israel says senior Hezbollah official probably dead, Hezbollah backs truce efforts

Updated Tue 8 October 2024 

By Maya Gebeily

BEIRUT (Reuters) -Hezbollah left the door open to a negotiated ceasefire on Tuesday after Israeli forces made new incursions in Lebanon, and Israel's defence minister said another senior official from the Iran-backed group appeared to have been killed.

In what could be the latest in a series of major blows to Hezbollah, Israeli Defence Minister Yoav Gallant said it appeared the replacement for slain Hezbollah leader Sayyed Hassan Nasrallah had been "eliminated".

Hashem Safieddine, a top Hezbollah official, was widely expected to succeed Nasrallah. Safieddine has not been heard from publicly since an Israeli airstrike late last week.

"Hezbollah is an organization without a head. Nasrallah was eliminated, his replacement was probably also eliminated," Gallant told officers at the Israeli military's northern command centre, in a brief video segment distributed by the military.

"There's no one to make decisions, no one to act," he said, without providing further details.

In a televised speech, Hezbollah deputy leader Naim Qassem, said he supported attempts to secure a truce, and for the first time did not mention the end of war in Gaza as a pre-condition to halting combat on the Lebanon-Israel border.

Qassem said Hezbollah supported attempts by Speaker of Parliament Nabih Berri, a Hezbollah ally, to secure a halt to fighting, which has escalated in recent weeks with the Israeli ground incursions and the killing of top Hezbollah leaders.

"We support the political activity being led by Berri under the title of a ceasefire," Qassem said in his 30-minute televised address.

It was not clear whether this signalled any change in stance, after a year in which the group has said it is fighting in support of the Palestinians during the Israel-Hamas war in Gaza, and would not stop without a ceasefire there.

Speaking in front of curtains from an undisclosed location, Qassem said the conflict with Israel was a war about who cries first, and Hezbollah would not cry first. The group's capabilities were intact despite "painful blows" from Israel.

"We are striking them. We are hurting them and we will prolong the time. Dozens of cities are within range of the resistance's missiles. We assure you that our capabilities are fine," said Qassem.

His televised address comes 11 days after the killing of Nasrallah, the most devastating setback Israel has dealt its foe in decades. Qassem said the group would elect a new secretary general and announce it once it has been done.

Israel kept up the pressure on Hezbollah on Tuesday by killing another one of its senior figures and launching new operations in southern Lebanon.

Qassem said Israel had yet to advance after ground clashes that broke out in south Lebanon a week ago.

"In any case, after the issue of a ceasefire takes shape, and once diplomacy can achieve it, all of the other details can be discussed and decisions can be taken," Qassem said.

"If the enemy (Israel) continues its war, then the battlefield will decide."

The regional tensions triggered a year ago by Palestinian armed group Hamas' attack on southern Israel have spiralled in recent weeks into a series of Israeli operations by land and air against Lebanon. On Oct. 1, Iran, sponsor of both Hezbollah and Hamas, fired missiles at Israel.

WARNING FROM IRAN

Iran warned Israel on Tuesday against any retliatory attacks. Foreign Minister Abbas Araqchi said any attack on Iran's infrastructure will be met with retaliation.

Araqchi will visit Saudi Arabia and other countries in the Middle East starting on Tuesday. In a video on state media he said the aim of his trip was discuss ways "to prevent the shameless crimes of the Zionist regime in Lebanon in continuation of the crimes in Gaza".

Sources have told Reuters that Gulf Arab states have sought to reassure Tehran of their neutrality in the conflict.

On the ground, the area of Israeli operations in Lebanon has been expanding. The Israeli military said it was conducting "limited, localised, targeted operations" in Lebanon's southwest, having previously announced such operations in the southeast.

A World Food Programme official voiced concern about Lebanon's food supply, saying thousands of hectares of farmland across the country's south has burned or been abandoned.

"Agriculture-wise, food production-wise, (there is) extraordinary concern for Lebanon's ability to continue to feed itself," Matthew Hollingworth, WFP country director in Lebanon, told a Geneva press briefing, adding that harvests will not occur and produce is rotting in fields.

World Health Organization official Ian Clarke in Beirut told the same briefing that there was a much higher risk of disease outbreaks among Lebanon's displaced population.

Israel's military struck Beirut's southern suburbs overnight again and said it had killed a figure responsible for Hezbollah's budgeting and logistics, Suhail Hussein Husseini, in what would be the latest in a string of Israeli assassinations of leaders and commanders of Hezbollah and Hamas.

Many Israelis have regained confidence in their long-vaunted military and intelligence after deadly blows in recent weeks to the command structure of Hezbollah.

The situation in Lebanon is getting worse by the day, the European Union's foreign policy chief, Josep Borrell, told the European Parliament, calling for a ceasefire. Some 20% of the Lebanese population had been forced to move, he said.

(Reporting by Elwely Elewelly in Dubai and Maya Gebeily in Beirut and Benoit Van Overstraeten in Brussels and Emma Farge in Geneva; Writing by Michael Georgy; Editing by Clarence Fernandez, William Maclean, Peter Graff and Timothy Heritage)