PAKISTAN

Living with the scars of calamity

Amid promises of reconstruction that came to naught, survivors of the 2005 earthquake struggle with their personal traumas.

Tariq Naqash 

Published October 8, 2024

DAWN

In October, the northern districts of Azad Jammu and Kashmir and neighbouring areas of Khyber Pakhtunkhwa — struck by one of the worst natural disasters nearly two decades ago — are once again filled with an air of despondency as survivors relive their bitter memories.

Though life on the surface appears to have returned to normal, the psychological scars left by the disaster remain deeply ingrained in the hearts of many. Survivors continue to struggle with the emotional toll of their losses, trying to overcome memories that still haunt them.

Muhammad Shafique Mir, now nearly 70, is a member of Muzaffarabad’s community of traditional bakers who have been making famous Kashmiri goodies — Kulcha and Shirmaal — in firewood ovens for generations.

On the morning of October 8 2005, Shafique was at his shop when the earthquake struck at 8:52am, catching everyone off guard. No one had ever imagined such a catastrophic tremor could hit the region.

Despite the alley being no more than five feet wide, only two lives were lost in that narrow lane. However, Shafique had no idea of the horror awaiting him just 600 yards away, at home.

“Through the collapsed structures and the cries of pain, I somehow made my way to our house,” Shafique recalls, his voice dripping with emotion. When he arrived, he was met by a mountain of rubble where his three-storey home once stood, burying everyone inside.

Nine family members were pulled out alive, but five others — his daughter, three paternal cousins and their mother — remained trapped beneath the debris. Five bodies were recovered within the next ten days, with the final remains being found 23 days later.

Heartbreakingly, two more cousins and an infant niece were killed at different locations. One cousin, a university lecturer, died while on his way to work. His infant daughter, carried by a maid to her grandmother’s nearby house, went missing.

Both bodies were recovered six months later when official agencies cleared the streets of rubble. Another cousin perished in his shop at Upper Adda, along with a customer. In a nearby alley, eight more family members lost their lives in the home of a distant cousin.

“October brings it all back,” Shafique says quietly. “The pain we endure is impossible to put into words.”

Shafique’s story is not an isolated one. Almost every household in Muzaffarabad, hit hard by their proximity to the epicentre, has a story of loss and survival.
Living with trauma

Shafaq Nadeem, now 51 and an officer in the AJK Health Department, says that day changed his life, forever.

The earthquake took her parents and brother when their family home collapsed in the Plate neighbourhood. A paternal uncle and cousin died separately in their own home in Madina Market.

“The quake didn’t just destroy our homes; it shattered our dreams, our hopes, and our futures. Even after all these years, the scars remain, and the memories of that day still haunt me.”

The enduring emotional impact of the earthquake has been felt across generations.

Dr Khawaja Hamid Rashid, a leading psychiatrist in Muzaffarabad, has counselled thousands of survivors suffering from post-traumatic stress disorder (PTSD).






“With time, many survivors have moved past the acute symptoms, but around one-third remain deeply affected by trauma,” Dr Rashid explains. “The difference now is that they keep it to themselves.”

Some survivors have isolated themselves, while others have left the towns and neighbourhoods where they lost loved ones. “I know people who left Muzaffarabad after losing children in the quake and have refused to return, despite still owning property here,” he says.

Interestingly, Dr Rashid has observed another phenomenon in recent years. “While many parents who lost children sought counselling, I’m now seeing more grown-up children seeking help. These young people, on the verge of entering college or beginning their professional lives, struggle with the absence of parents they lost to the quake.

“It would be wrong to say the psychological impact of the earthquake has ended. PTSD and other emotional issues continue to linger, manifesting in different ways,” he adds.
Promises made and broken

Aid had poured in from across the globe to help Pakistan rebuild the shattered cities, towns, and villages as the devastating disaster had claimed over 46,000 lives and injured another 33,100 in AJK alone, in addition to destroying or damaging 314,474 homes and reducing nearly all essential facilities and infrastructure to rubble.

The federal government established the Earthquake Reconstruction and Rehabilitation Authority (Erra) to spearhead rebuilding efforts.

In AJK and KP, the State Earthquake Reconstruction and Rehabilitation Authority (Serra) and Provincial Earthquake Reconstruction and Rehabilitation Authority (Perra) were created to ensure the smooth execution of reconstruction-related projects.

In the initial years, Erra’s primary focus was providing compensation, housing grants and livelihood recovery. Later, it shifted to reconstruction-related work, during which the Erra Board approved the reconstruction of 7,608 projects in AJK from time to time.

These projects were divided into three funding modes: sponsor-funded (1,632 projects), donor-funded (777 projects) and funded by the federal government (5,199 projects).






Simultaneously, a separate urban development programme was also conceived, to be executed directly under Erra’s administrative control.

The Muzaffarabad City Development Project (MCDP) had a proposed allocation of $361 million — $300m through Chinese preferential buyer’s credit and the rest from federal government funding.

The volume of the Bagh City Development Project (BCDP) was Rs7.35 billion, to be arranged from the government funding, and that of the Rawalakot City Development Project (RCDP) was Rs8.20bn, including a Saudi loan of $70m.

All three urban development programmes were approved by the Executive Committee of the National Economic Council (Ecnec) in 2007.

However, implementation of the MCDP was delayed due to disagreements over overhead costs with Chinese construction firms, forcing Erra at one point in time to consider reconstruction of the ravaged AJK capital from internal resources, though at a reduced scale.

Over time, the Chinese companies lowered their overhead charges, allowing reconstruction to proceed. Unfortunately, resources were stretched thin, and resultantly, $353.27m, including the $300m loan, were apportioned among three cities — Muzaffarabad ($191.18m), Bagh ($123.48m) and Rawalakot ($38.72m).






Unlike Serra, where the AJK government had appointed an efficient team of officials from various departments to oversee reconstruction across all three modes of execution, the selection of staff for the project management units (PMUs) of urban development programmes remained solely under Erra’s control, effectively side-lining the AJK government from the process.

“Erra was supposed to approve and monitor projects, not execute them directly,” said a retired AJK government official who held a key position in the post-earthquake period, explaining that Erra’s 2007 ordinance assigned responsibility for project execution to the local governments of AJK and KP.

Nevertheless, Erra handpicked officers for the city development projects, which led many people to blame the alleged “oversight and collusion” between the client, contractors and consultants for both the selection of projects and the overall quality of work, particularly in Muzaffarabad and Bagh.

Projects such as two mega shopping complexes in Muzaffarabad were built without fully considering the city’s needs and remained underused for years. More troublingly, substantial sums were spent on constructing palatial residences for AJK’s president and prime minister — buildings far bigger than the actual needs of both offices.

The prime ministers never moved to their newly built accommodation. After years of disuse, the sitting AJK premier recently allotted it to Tevta, an official institution imparting technical education and vocational training.

People in Muzaffarabad still sarcastically refer to a non-operational water supply network of black plastic pipes and mostly choked sewerage lines whenever they question the transparency in expending MCDP funds.


A view of a higher secondary school in Kai Manja village, located around 40 kilometres from Muzaffarabad. Students take classes in the building or adjacent shelters. — Photo by author



Similar complaints have come from Bagh, the second hardest hit town, where people say funds were wasted on constructing flawed sewerage lines and water distribution network.

Faisal Jameel Kashmiri, a renowned civil society activist from Muzaffarabad, blames the AJK government departments for acting as “silent spectators” over visible mismanagement and poor quality of work or, in some cases, non-utility of projects built under the urban development programmes.

“Whatever the reason, they failed to take ownership of urban development schemes or else the wastage of the borrowed money could have been prevented.

“Perhaps they followed the adage: Don’t interrupt your enemy when he is making mistakes,” he adds wryly.

Meanwhile, although all 2,409 projects funded by sponsors and donors were completed on time, as many as 1,730 of the projects financed by Islamabad remain in limbo, stalled due to a lack of funds since 2021, according to Serra officials. These projects include 1,112 schools and 41 health facilities.

To complete the 919 projects already underway, Rs20.11bn is needed. The remaining 811 yet-to-be-started projects will require Rs24.01bn. The Erra Act of 2011, passed to provide legislative cover for reconstruction efforts, mandates the completion of these projects.

However, despite a decision taken at the 14th Erra Council meeting in 2021 to allocate one-time funds, Islamabad has yet to release the required resources. Repeated requests from AJK officials, including the state premier, have yet to gain any headway.
Transformation and ongoing concerns

In 2018, the National Disaster Management Commission (NDMC) proposed merging Erra into the National Disaster Management Authority (NDMA) to streamline disaster management efforts. However, this merger has yet to be finalised, requiring the consent of the provincial assemblies of Punjab and Sindh and legislation from parliament to revoke the Erra Act of 2011.

Although Erra and NDMA continue to operate as separate entities, NDMA’s chairman has also been assigned the role of Erra’s deputy chairman/chairman.

While NDMA has absorbed Erra’s budget, assets, and responsibilities, it has not retained the experienced human resources from the reconstruction-related bodies — professionals with over 18 years of expertise in disaster management.

As Erra’s operational responsibilities have effectively shifted to NDMA, concerns persist about the fate of the incomplete projects.

On May 17, the AJK Legislative Assembly passed a unanimous resolution, urging the federal government to ensure the completion of Erra’s remaining projects through NDMA while maintaining legislative cover for post-earthquake reconstruction in AJK.
Forgotten future

As these bureaucratic shifts unfold, the most vulnerable continue to suffer: nearly 200,000 children in AJK’s quake-affected areas remain deprived of proper schooling and forced to study outdoors in harsh weather because educational infrastructure projects remain incomplete.

Every October, the non-completion of schools becomes a focal issue, but only for a few days, before it is forgotten again, left at the mercy of fate.


A view of students taking classes under the open sky along the flimsy shelters of their high school in Bani Langrial village of Jhelum valley. — Photo by author



Irshada Bibi, a teacher at a girls’ primary school in Jiskool village in Jhelum Valley District, laments her students’ dire conditions. “It’s difficult to teach students, particularly in winter. When it rains, we have to send them home. We are in dire need of a building,” she says.

Similar stories emerge from other schools, where either construction was left unfinished or never began.

Ali Abbasi, a 10th-grade student at Boys High School Duchore Mira’n, a mountain village just 38 kilometres from Muzaffarabad, shares his frustration: “We’ve grown up seeing this unfinished building as our school. People in cities can’t imagine the conditions in which we try to fulfil our parents’ dreams.”


The unfinished Dcchore Mira’n Village school. — Photo by author



“What’s our fault? Why are we forced to study in such conditions?” he adds, echoing the sentiments of countless students who desperately await completion of their respective school buildings.
Building codes: a grey area

While the infrastructure that emerged after the earthquake, including educational institutions, health facilities, and government offices, has undeniably transformed the outlook of previously devastated cities, the reality remains mixed.

Public sector buildings have been constructed in strict compliance with building codes, ensuring they are now earthquake-resistant. However, adherence to building codes in the private sector tells a different story.

In the worst-affected areas, streets that many hoped would be widened during reconstruction have instead fallen prey to encroachments.

In Muzaffarabad’s Khawaja Mohalla, one of the hardest-hit areas where hundreds lost their lives in an instant and rescue efforts were delayed for weeks, new concrete buildings have sprung up. Yet, the narrow streets, once considered a priority for widening, remain unchanged.

“This happened because of indecision by government departments,” laments Shafique Mir, who is still living in a tin-roofed structure nearly two decades after the disaster.

“Had they bulldozed through those narrow streets after the earthquake and converted them into wide, safe roads, no one would have objected. But when they failed to act, people just rebuilt on the same old boundaries.”

In 2019, a shelter in one of Khawaja Mohalla’s narrow alleys caught fire and was reduced to ashes because fire trucks couldn’t reach the site.

“That incident should have been a wake-up call,” says Kashmiri. “The government had a master plan, prepared by a Japanese organisation, which included widening streets and relocating families from hazardous areas. But it was never implemented,” he laments.

Unplanned construction, with little regard for building codes, has since spread across Muzaffarabad, adding to the city’s vulnerability.

“The recommendations and guidelines were blatantly ignored,” says Raja Omar Ahsan, an activist with years of experience in relief and rehabilitation activities.

“While most public sector buildings follow the codes, unchecked urbanisation and construction in red zones — areas at high risk — are another disaster waiting to happen.

“Muzaffarabad sits on two fault lines, and yet we act as if that danger doesn’t exist.”

The situation in other quake-affected areas is no better. According to Tahir Hussain Gardaizi, an activist in Bagh, around 174 buildings in his city were declared dangerous by international experts after the quake.

“But instead of demolishing them, they’ve been superficially repaired and turned into residential or commercial spaces.”


A view of a primary school in Jiskool village in Jhelum Valley District. — Photo by author



Muzaffarabad’s satellite town project, initially intended to provide safe housing for survivors, has also become a symbol of corruption and mismanagement.

“The land was supposed to go to the most affected people,” says Khawaja Nauman Zaroo, a trader in Muzaffarabad’s main bazaar. “Ironically, plots were handed out to people from across the state who were hardly affected by the earthquake. The real survivors were left with no choice but to stay in the same narrow streets where they had once seen their loved ones buried alive.”

According to local residents, much of the blame lies with the Muzaffarabad Development Authority. “In 19 years, they haven’t been able to develop a single housing society,” says Raja Shakil Ahmed, a frustrated resident.

“Instead, its officers have lined their pockets, grabbing plots in the satellite towns and turning a blind eye to illegal construction in red zones and watercourses. This is corruption at its worst, and the prime minister must intervene before it’s too late.”

Across the world, calamities — whether man-made or natural — often serve as wake-up calls, teaching communities valuable lessons to help mitigate future disasters.

Unfortunately, in AJK, that lesson has been lost on many. In such cases, it falls upon institutions to enforce laws, regulations, and building codes for the greater good of society.

However, even more troubling is that in AJK, these institutions have often become complicit, allowing hazardous, unplanned construction on slopes, floodplains and other vulnerable areas, with a blatant disregard for safety standards. The result is a landscape littered with reminders of past failures and the fear of future ones.

Therefore, it’s not only the bitter memories of lives lost in the catastrophic quake that return each October, but also the reopening of wounds caused by government institutions—whether through their own violations or their failure to stop the violations of others. For many survivors, the devastation wasn’t just physical; it was a profound test of trust, and nearly two decades later, that trust remains broken.

Header image: A view of the sprawling Azad Jammu and Kashmir capital caught from its northern side. — Photo by author

Weather worries

Rafia Zakaria

Published October 9, 2024

DAWN

ACCORDING to scientists, for 800,000 years of Earth’s existence the amount of carbon in the atmosphere did not exceed 300 ppm (parts per million).

Then in 1911, the amount of carbon in the atmosphere exceeded that level for the first time. Since then, carbon in the atmosphere has only been increasing. This year, carbon levels in the atmosphere exceeded 425 ppm.

Increased carbon dioxide and the effects of greenhouse gases have led to a host of problems that impact human health. The higher temperatures are especially dangerous for vulnerable populations such as children and pregnant women. Premature births, a leading cause of early childhood deaths, go up during heatwaves.

The temperature in many parts of Pakistan this summer was above 40 degrees Celsius. And going by the pattern over the past few years, the trend is likely to persist. This suggests that climate change produces a distinct and special risk to children, especially those who live in the hot regions of the world.

According to Unicef, one-third of all children globally experience four to five heatwaves in a year. It goes without saying that risks to their health may be exacerbated by poverty. In fact, climate change can adversely affect crop output, resulting in food insecurity and poor nutrition for growing bodies.

Climate change can also impact levels of air pollution and is believed to aggravate smog. Studies suggest that symptoms of asthma and other allergies are increasing in children, especially in poorer countries, leading to non-attendance at school.

And it is not just on account of illness that children face disruptions in their education schedule; every year, millions of children face weeks of school closure due to adverse weather conditions, including intense heat and heavy rain, as we have witnessed. Excessive heat also means that children cannot play outdoors, and are subjected to a crowded environment inside their homes, which are often poorly ventilated.

Children in poverty-stricken and under-resourced areas are the most susceptible to climate change.

Temperatures are more acute in large cities, such as Karachi and Lahore, where the proliferation of concrete and asphalt surfaces has created the urban heat island effect — that is, the temperature in these cities is often several degrees hotter than in the adjoining areas. Summer has thus become a time of dread, with temperatures continuing to soar year after year, with no respite in sight.

There seem to be few choices before parents in the hotter months, especially as children are particularly vulnerable to heatstroke. Of late, there has been some awareness of the matter, but are hospitals and clinics doing enough to treat young victims of heatstroke? Special wards are needed in the summer months that are equipped to treat children and babies who have suffered the effects of intense heat.

Similarly, can medical outlets cope with the rising cases of allergies and respiratory illnesses? Developing the requisite facilities and training staff to operate them efficiently requires advance planning and funding. It is simply not enough to have a climate change ministry. It is necessary to address what the weather means for our children’s everyday health.

Then there is the matter of mental health. A recent qualitative study carried out by Shazia Soomro, Dianen Zhou and Iftikhar Charan focuses on the psychological effects of rising temperatures on Pakistani children, particularly the rise of “climate anxiety”.

According to the authors, children are a vulnerable population because they are still growing physically and intellectually, and the increased tribulation and uncertainty caused by climate-related factors means that they can suffer a more permanent impact. Naturally, children in poverty-stricken and under-resourced areas are the most susceptible, although each child is affected differently, depending on a host of circumstances.

The study, published in the African Journal of Reproductive Health, looks at how extreme weather events affect the educational achievement of Pakistani children. These weather events include heatwaves, droughts, and heavy rainfall. While the jury may be out on the exact parameters of an ‘extreme’ weather event, Pakistan has suffered heavy monsoon rains that have far exceeded expectations for some years now.

The authors of the study found that even accounting for changes in the river flow and patterns of snowmelt, the severity of the new monsoon could only be attributed to climate change. This was true also of the devastating flood of 2022, which affected 33 million people in the country.

The study found that extreme weather events were causing attachment disorders, depression, panic attacks, phobias and anxiety among children. In addition to these mood disorders, a regressive impact on children’s ability to control their emotions was also observed; many of the youngsters experienced cognitive deficits, behaviour issues, learning difficulties, language development problems, adjustment challenges and generally poor academic performance.

There is a high proportion of children whose mental health has been affected by climate change. Children affected by the 2022 floods still report anxiety displacement stress, depression and sleep disorders. While the study focuses on a small cohort, it is likely that the results seen among them can be extrapolated to the at least 670,000 children that the authors say were affected by the floods. Interestingly, many spoke about the trauma of the flash floods that occur in Sindh every year. Many also noted how isolated they feel from the natural environment because they live in such heavily urbanised areas.

Pakistan cannot reverse climate change by itself. However, given that the recurrence of these extreme weather events annually is certain, efforts can be made to prepare for coming disasters by teaching children protocols that can be followed when they occur.

A level of preparedness will help the children, who have been born into a polluted and environmentally hazardous world, and equip them with some tools to handle the situation in the face of a very hot and difficult future.

The writer is an attorney teaching constitutional law and political philosophy.
rafia.zakaria@gmail.com

Published in Dawn, October 9th, 2024

PAKISTAN

X ‘mostly refused’ government’s requests for content takedown

Ishaq Tanoli

Published October 9, 2024 

DAWB

KARACHI: Social media platform X rejected several requests made by Pakistan for content removal as it found the posts not to be violating its terms and conditions, an official told the Sindh High Court (SHC) on Tuesday.

The submission was made before a two-judge bench comprising Chief Justice Mohammad Shafi Siddiqui and Justice Jawad Akbar Sarwana, which resumed the hearing of petitions filed by activits and civil society members over social media restrictions and suspension of mobile internet and broadband services during and before general elections.

According to the documents submitted in the court, the social media platform turned down most requests as its investigation found that the content did not violate its terms of service and rules.

In most cases, the management of X refused to take any action on content removal requests and asked for additional information to review possible violations of its policies.

Federal law officer says in most cases, platform sought more information about policy violations

The report submitted by Additional Attorney General Ziaul Haq Makhdoom — in light of the last court order — didn’t state the number of requests made by the government or how many of them were approved by X.

It only included replies from the social media platform where it refused to comply with the government’s requests and sought additional information.

It was also not clear from the documents how much information/evidence and additional material were provided to X about the reported posts.

The bench made the report a part of the record, along with other statements filed by various parties and said their copies should be supplied to the counsels of both sides.

The bench added that the submitted documents could be critical while deciding and concluding these matters.

The bench fixed the next hearing on Oct 17 since the case has been partially heard and Abdul Moiz Jaferii, counsel for one of the petitioners, has concluded his arguments.

Till then, interim orders passed during earlier hearings will stay, the bench noted.

In its initial interim order, the court directed the authorities to ensure uninterrupted internet services and restore access to X as there was no lawful justification or reasonable grounds for its closure.

However, the interior ministry told the court that X was blocked in February till further orders on the reports of intelligence agencies.

Government officials have also complained about the lack of compliance by the management of X regarding content removal.

Last month, Information Minister Attaullah Tarar said access to the social media platform X can be restored if its management is willing to address compliance issues.

“If some compliance issues can be improved, if we can sit down and talk to X, if they come closer to our terms and we move closer to their position, a mechanism can be devi­sed to take things forward and solve the issue in an amicable manner,” he had said.

Published in Dawn, October 9th, 2024

PAKISTAN

Quetta rally condemns Karachi attack

Saleem Shahid 

Published October 9, 2024

 DAWN

QUETTA: Members of civil society held a protest in Quetta on Tuesday to condemn the attack on a Chinese convoy in Karachi near the airport.

Led by Allaudin Khilji and Babar Khajak, the protesters marched along Adalat Road. They chanted slogans in support of Chinese nationals and against the attackers.

The rally culminated in front of the Quetta Press Club, where speakers strongly condemned the attack, attributing it to anti-national elements allegedly backed by India.

They stressed that the people of Balochistan seek peace and development and reaffirmed their support for Pakistan-China relations, which they described as exemplary.

The speakers stressed that no conspiracy could undermine the partnership between Pakistan and China. They expressed confidence that both Pakistan and Balochistan would continue to progress.

Published in Dawn, October 9th, 2024

Omar Abdullah to lead held Kashmir after opposition routs BJP

Our Correspondent 

DAWN

Published October 9, 2024
S

RINAGAR: Supporters of the Jammu and Kashmir National Conference and Indian National Congress celebrate the alliance’s victory in the polls, on Tuesday.—AFP

NEW DELHI: Former chief minister of India-held Jam­mu and Kashmir, Omar Abdul­lah, is expected to take the helm again after his party won almost half of the total seats in recently held state elections.

Mr Abdullah’s National Con­f­e­rence and its ally, the Indian National Congress, scored an emphatic victory in the disputed region’s first state election since 2014.

The National Conference has won 42 out of the 90 seats, with eight of Congress bringing the alliance’s tally to 50 in the union territory, which is awaiting the status of a state assembly as per the promise made by the Modi government.

The 29 seats won by Mr Modi’s BJP in held Kashmir is the party’s best-ever show in the region.

Congress-NC alliance wins 50 out of 90 seats; Modi’s party to form govt in Haryana for third time after ‘shock’ win

For Congress, the taste of victory in Jammu and Kashmir was soured by a shocking defeat at the hands of the BJP in Haryana.

Exit polls had suggested that India’s leading opposition party was set to win elections in both states, but as per Tuesday’s results, BJP took 48 seats in the 90-member Har­yana assembly, leaving the Congress trailing with 36.

Omar Abdullah, Vice President of the Jammu and Kashmir National Conference (JKNC) and former Chief Minister of Jammu and Kashmir, poses with his party’s flag in the waters of Dal Lake during an election campaign in the lake, in Srinagar on Sept 22, 2024. — Reuters/File



‘Conspiracy’

The shock verdict gave Pri­me Minister Narendra Modi re­a­son to believe he could spr­ing surprises. The Congress, however, alleged that the outcome in Haryana was rigged with the help of tampered electronic voting machines (EVMs) and an election commission “handpicked by the BJP”.

The party’s general secretary Jairam Ramesh called the election result “a victory of manipulations” and “subverting the will of people”.

Mr Ramesh claimed there were “serious issues” with the counting process and the functioning of EVMs in around 14 constituencies and his party would soon take up the matter with the Election Commission.

“Results in Haryana are totally unexpected and surp­rising. They go against ground reality and the sentiment of the people which was for cha­nge,” Mr Ramesh said at a press conference with Cong­ress’ media and publicity dep­a­rtment head Pawan Khera.

“Under these circumstan­ces, it is not possible for us to accept these results [in Har­y­ana] … there are serious issues raised by our candidates which we will raise with the EC.”

He claimed victory had been “snatched” from Cong­ress and the results were “aga­inst the sentiment of people”.

“The Congress has been made to lose in Haryana and the chapter is not closed.”

On the Jammu and Kashmir results, Mr Ramesh said voters defeated BJP’s “mischievous designs” to somehow muster a majority in the region.

“People have given a befitting reply to those who trampled upon J-K’s respect by taking away its statehood,” he said, adding the NC-Congress alliance will make all-out efforts to revive the statehood.

‘Politics of development’

Meanwhile, PM Modi than­ked the voters in Haryana for giving a “clear majority” to his party for the third time in a row.

“I salute the people of Har­yana for giving a clear majority to the Bharatiya Janata Party once again. This is the victory of the politics of development and good governance,” he said in a post on X.



The victory in Haryana coupled with the party’s highest-ever seats tally in Jammu and Kashmir could blunt the claims that BJP was losing the grip on its supporters and brings into sharp focus the party’s organisational efficiency and leadership’s keen ability to redraw strategy in line with the changing ground dynamics, Hindustan Times said.

PM Modi also congratulated BJP workers “who have worked tirelessly and with full dedication for this great victory”. Reports said the RSS had helped the BJP in these polls.

“You have not only served the people of the state to the fullest, but have also taken our agenda of development to them. This is the result of which BJP has got this historic victory in Haryana,” Mr Modi added.

Published in Dawn, October 9th, 2024

Southeast Asian leaders meet in Laos in a summit set to tackle crisis in Myanmar and disputed sea

JINTAMAS SAKSORNCHAI and EILEEN NG
Tue, October 8, 2024











Laos ASEAN
An officer walks in front of a display for the meetings of the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) at the national convention center in Vientiane, Laos, Monday, Oct. 7, 2024. (AP Photo/Sakchai Lalit)

VIENTIANE, Laos (AP) — Southeast Asian leaders gathered in the capital of Laos on Wednesday for an annual regional forum that will focus on tackling the prolonged civil war in Myanmar and territorial tensions in the South China Sea.

The Association of Southeast Asian Nations summit will also be followed by meetings with global powers including China, the United States and Russia, which are contending for influence in the region.

The timing of the meetings in Vientiane makes it likely that talks will also touch on the escalation of violence in the Middle East, although Southeast Asia has faced only indirect fallout.


ASEAN's influence has historically been limited even among its own members, but the forum has often served as a platform for dialogues among superpowers looking to engage with the region.

The 10 member states of ASEAN — Indonesia, Thailand, Singapore, Philippines, Vietnam, Malaysia, Myanmar, Cambodia, Brunei and Laos — will also hold talks with their dialogue partners from elsewhere in the region including Japan, South Korea, India and Australia on topics ranging from the economy, to climate change and energy.

This year's summit will be the first for several new national leaders.

Thailand's Paetongtarn Shinawatra, who took the premiership in August, emerged the bloc's youngest leader at 38. Singapore's Prime Minister Lawrence Wong will represent the country after he took over from Lee Hsien Loong, who stepped down in May after 20 years.

Vietnam also has a new leader after President To Lam took office in August, but the country will be represented by its prime minister Pham Minh Chinh.

President Joko Widodo of Indonesia, ASEAN’s biggest member, is skipping the forum as his successor Prabowo Subianto prepares to take office later this month, sending Vice President Ma’ruf Amin in his stead.

It will also be the first overseas trip for Japan’s new prime minister Shigeru Ishiba, who was confirmed just last week.

Thailand’s Paetongtarn said Monday the Myanmar crisis is an “extremely important issue” that will be raised during the meetings.

The violence and humanitarian crisis in Myanmar has rapidly worsened since the army ousted the elected government of Aung San Suu Kyi in February 2021 and suppressed widespread nonviolent protests that sought a return to democratic rule.

Myanmar’s junta has agreed to an ASEAN peace plan that calls for ceasefire and mediation, but has continued battling pro-democracy guerillas and ethnic rebels in a war that has killed close to 6,000 people.

Myanmar is expected to send Foreign Ministry permanent secretary Aung Kyaw Moe to the summit, its first high-level representative at the summit in three years, after ASEAN barred it from sending political representatives in late 2021.

Allowing a senior diplomat from Myanmar to join the meetings “will be perceived as ASEAN is compromising, confirming the concern that ASEAN is experiencing fatigue in dealing with the crisis,” said Lina Alexandra, senior researcher at Indonesia’s Centre for Strategic and International Studies. That means the chances for any significant breakthrough on the crisis remain slim, she said.

Much discussion is also likely to focus on the maritime territorial disputes between ASEAN member states and China in the South China Sea, one of the world’s most crucial waterways for trade.

Vietnam, the Philippines, Malaysia and Brunei all have overlapping claims with China, which claims sovereignty over virtually all of the South China Sea and has become increasingly aggressive in attempts to enforce them. Indonesia has also expressed concern about what it sees as Beijing’s encroachment on its exclusive economic zone.

Tensions between the Philippines and China have escalated this year, with Chinese forces using powerful water cannons and dangerous blocking maneuvers to prevent food and other supplies from reaching Filipino navy personnel involved with staking a claim on a tiny atoll.

Despite a deal in July to end confrontations, tensions flared again in August after vessels from the two counties collided, with each side accusing each other of deliberately causing the collision. The Philippines, a longtime U.S. ally, has been critical of other ASEAN countries for not doing more to get China to back away from its increasingly assertive approach.

Last week, Vietnam charged that Chinese forces assaulted 10 of its fishermen with iron bars, damaged their gear and stole their catch off the disputed Paracels Islands, and calling it a serious violation of Vietnam’s sovereignty.

While members are likely to focus on the disputes at the forum, there's little chance of clear outcomes as those who are not in direct conflict with China will likely prioritize ties with Beijing, said Muhammad Faizal Abdul Rahman, research fellow at Singapore’s S. Rajaratnam School of International Studies.

“It is the preference for conflict avoidance while getting geostrategic benefits where possible,” he said. “In reality, national interests matter more than regional interests."

___

Follow AP's Asia-Pacific coverage at https://apnews.com/hub/asia-pacific



Myanmar and South China Sea to test ASEAN relevance in upcoming summit
Panu Wongcha-um
Mon, October 7, 2024 






Myanmar and South China Sea to test ASEAN relevance in upcoming summit
ASEAN Foreign Ministers' Meeting (AMM) in Vientiane, Laos

By Panu Wongcha-um

VIENTIANE, Laos (Reuters) - Southeast Asian leaders will meet in Laos this week as Myanmar's civil war and mounting tensions in the South China Sea risk corroding the ASEAN grouping's central role in the region.

The 10-member Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) has, since it was founded in 1967, created complex political structures and processes that have largely enabled peaceful cooperation within the region of over 685 million people.

But its inability to address difficult issues in a timely way may reflect a deeper differences emerging within the regional grouping, said former Indonesian Foreign Minister Marty Natalegawa.

"Both the South China Sea issue, as well as Myanmar, constitute litmus tests for ASEAN's relevance," Natalegawa told Reuters.

"My main concern...is that the sense of ASEAN cohesion and sense of common purpose has been fraying somewhat in recent years."

Known as the "Five Point Consensus", the ASEAN-led peace effort for Myanmar has made scant progress since its unveiling in April 2021, just months after the country's military staged a coup and unseated the elected government.

Instead, violence has spiraled, with the emergence of an armed resistance movement that has loosely allied with several ethnic minority rebel groups to hammer the military on multiple fronts.

Under ASEAN chair Laos, the bloc's approach has somewhat shifted from previous chair Indonesia's largely unsuccessful approach by enlarging the peace process to include Myanmar's other neighbours such as China and India, said Dulyapak Preecharush, a Southeast Asian studies scholar at Thailand's Thammasat University.

"It creates more space and less pressure for the Myanmar military," said Dulyapak.

Still, the Myanmar junta has refused to engage in talks with rivals, calling them terrorists bent on destroying the country, while ASEAN continues to bar the generals from its summits over their failure to comply with the peace plan they had initially agreed to.

On Monday, Thailand's Prime Minister Paetongtarn Shinawatra said she would work with Malaysia to use diplomatic means to resolve the conflict, underscoring what may be a renewed effort by the bloc.

CODE OF CONDUCT

The meeting in Laos will be followed by two days of summits with leaders and top diplomats from other countries, including the United States, Japan, South Korea, China and Russia.

Of concern to many of them are escalating tensions in the South China Sea between China and the Philippines, and more recently, Vietnam.

That has renewed attention on ASEAN's protracted negotiations with Beijing towards creating a code of conduct for the vital waterway, a process in motion since 2017.

China claims almost the entire South China Sea as its territory and has deployed an armada of coast guard deep into the exclusive economic zones of ASEAN members the Philippines, Vietnam, Indonesia, Malaysia and Brunei.

While some ASEAN countries are hopeful the code can be concluded in a few years, prospects for a legally binding text remain distant, according to many analysts and diplomats.

"Negotiations on the code of conduct continue at a snail's pace," former Thai Foreign Minister Kantathi Suphamongkhon told Reuters.

"Some parties to the negotiation are now hinting that the code of conduct should also not be legally binding," he said adding, "this would be unfortunate."

Ties between U.S. defence treaty ally the Philippines and China have been strained by confrontations between vessels near disputed features, triggering regional concerns of an escalation.

Last week, Vietnam also protested what it called a Chinese attack on its fishermen near disputed, Chinese-occupied islands.

China maintains its responses have been appropriate.

(Reporting by Panu Wongcha-um; Editing by Devjyot Ghoshal, Martin Petty and Lincoln Feast.)

SE Asian summit seeks progress on Myanmar civil war

Martin Abbugao and Thanaporn Promyamyai
Tue, October 8, 2024 

Southeast Asian leaders are meeting in the Laos capital Vientiane for the ASEAN summit (TANG CHHIN Sothy) (TANG CHHIN Sothy/AFP/AFP)


Southeast Asian leaders met for talks with a Myanmar junta representative at a regional summit Wednesday as they try to kickstart faltering diplomatic efforts to broker an end to the country's civil war.

The disputed South China Sea will also be on the agenda at the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) gathering, after months of violent clashes between Chinese vessels and Philippine and Vietnamese fishermen.

ASEAN has tried to no avail for three years to find a negotiated solution to the Myanmar crisis, which has left thousands dead and forced millions to flee their homes.

The bloc barred junta leaders from its summits in the wake of their February 2021 coup and the generals refused invitations to send a "non-political" representative instead.

But the junta has backed down and sent a senior foreign ministry official to the three-day meet in Laos -- its first representation at a top-level gathering in three and a half years.

The U-turn comes two weeks after the military issued an unprecedented invitation to its enemies for talks aimed at ending the conflict, following a series of battlefield defeats.

Weeks after it ousted Aung San Suu Kyi's elected government, the junta agreed to a "five point consensus" plan with ASEAN to restore peace, but then ignored it and pushed ahead with a bloody crackdown on dissent and opposition to its rule.

- Myanmar 'has to listen' -

Malaysian Foreign Minister Mohamad Hasan, whose country takes over the ASEAN chair after the summit, said it was time for Myanmar to cooperate.

"Myanmar also has to listen to ASEAN. They have to abide by the ASEAN charter because it's part of ASEAN," he told reporters.

Officials hope that the leaders' first face-to-face talks in three and a half years with a junta representative -- foreign ministry permanent secretary Aung Kyaw Moe -- could open the way to a breakthrough.

Aung Kyaw Moe joined a meeting of ASEAN foreign ministers on Tuesday where he asked for "understanding as Myanmar tried to bring a peaceful solution", Thai foreign ministry spokesman Nikorndej Balankura told reporters.

But Daniel Kritenbrink, the top US diplomat for East Asia, voiced doubts at the idea the junta was moderating.

He said that Secretary of State Antony Blinken, who is representing the United States at the ASEAN meeting, would press for the junta to take steps such as reducing violence, releasing political prisoners, and engaging with the opposition.

"Unfortunately, we have seen virtually zero progress on any of those priorities," Kritenbrink said.

Mustafa Izzuddin, international affairs analyst at Solaris Strategies Singapore, said the Myanmar crisis would "define the future of ASEAN as to its relevance in navigating a shifting geopolitical landscape."

"The longer the Myanmar crisis remains unresolved, the greater the risk of ASEAN outliving its usefulness in resolving conflicts within the Southeast Asian region," he told AFP.

Groups fighting against the junta are also unimpressed by the diplomatic efforts.

Padoh Saw Taw Nee, a spokesman for the Karen National Union (KNU), which has been battling the military for decades along the border with Thailand, said three years of ASEAN-led peace talks had only shown the bloc's "dysfunctional mechanism".

"ASEAN really needs to coordinate with the two big powerful countries, China and the US. Without the two big power's green light ASEAN couldn't get anywhere."

- South China Sea -

The Myanmar crisis has dominated every high-level meeting since the coup but the bloc has been divided, with Indonesia, Malaysia and the Philippines leading calls for tougher action against the generals.

Philippine President Ferdinand Marcos is also expected to push discussions on the South China Sea, where Chinese coast guard and other vessels have rammed, deployed water cannons, and blocked Philippine government vessels in recent months.

This month Vietnam condemned China's "brutal behaviour" after 10 of its fishermen were beaten with iron bars and robbed of thousands of dollars' worth of fish and equipment.

Beijing claims almost the entirety of the South China Sea, a waterway of immense strategic importance through which trillions of dollars in trade transits every year.

Four ASEAN members -- the Philippines, Vietnam, Indonesia and Brunei -- have competing claims to various small islands and reefs.

Chinese Premier Li Qiang arrives on Wednesday, a day before holding talks with the bloc's leaders and joining an "ASEAN Plus Three" summit with new Japanese Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba and President Yoon Suk Yeol of South Korea.

Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi will also hold talks with ASEAN on Thursday.

Wars in the Middle East and Ukraine are expected to feature in discussions.

bur-pdw/rsc

Blinken hopes to strengthen U.S.-East Asian ties during Laos summits

Tue, October 8, 2024 

Secretary of State Antony Blinken departs the UN General Assembly's 79th session at the United Nations Headquarters in New York City on Sept. 23 and is in Laos to attend summits with Indo-Pacific and Southeast Asian leaders Tuesday through Friday. Photo by Peter Foley/UPI

Oct. 8 (UPI) -- Secretary of State Antony Blinken will seek to strengthen U.S. ties in East Asia during a pair of summits with leaders from the Indo-Pacific and Southeast Asian regions this week.

Blinken is visiting Vientiane in the Lao People's Democratic Republic Tuesday through Friday to participate in the East Asia Summit and the U.S.-Association of Southeast Asian Nations summit.

"We sincerely appreciate the Lao PDR for its excellent work this year in hosting the many ASEAN meetings," Daniel Kritenbrink, Assistant Secretary for East Asian and Pacific Affairs, said during a teleconference Tuesday afternoon.

"We remain committed to advancing the U.S.-LAO PDR Comprehensive Partnership and to developing our economic and people-to-people ties to support greater prosperity for the people of Laos," Kritenbrink said.

Blinken's mission is to emphasize the benefits of the U.S.-ASEAN Comprehensive Strategic Partnership for the 1 billion people represented by the participating nations.

Economic growth, climate change, health security, maritime security and the digital economy are among the many topics Blinken and the representatives of ASEAN nation's will discuss during the events in Laos, Kritenbrink said.

Blinken also will discuss geopolitical issues, including a continuing crisis in Burma, enforcing international law in the South China Sea and Russia's war against Ukraine.

"ASEAN is at the heart of the U.S. Indo-Pacific strategy," Kritenbrink said. "We are committed to ASEAN's centrality and the ASEAN Outlook on the Indo-Pacific."

The United States is the largest source of direct foreign investment in ASEAN nation's and their respective economies, Kritenbrink said.

He said U.S. businesses invested $500 billion in trade in ASEAN nations in 2023, which generated hundreds of thousands of jobs throughout the United States and a million jobs throughout Southeast Asia.

Southeast Asian nations also send 50,000 students to study in U.S. universities every year.


Blinken to discuss Myanmar, South China Sea and Ukraine at Asia summits Laos

Reuters
Updated Tue, October 8, 2024

U.S. Secretary of State Antony J. Blinken at a ministerial meeting of the Foreign Ministry Channel for Global Health Security, in New York


WASHINGTON (Reuters) -Secretary of State Antony Blinken will represent the United States at summits with Asian leaders in Laos this week and expects to discuss human rights in Myanmar, China's "irresponsible" behavior in the South China Sea and Ukraine, the top U.S. diplomat for East Asia said on Tuesday.

Daniel Kritenbrink told reporters that President Joe Biden, whose vice president, Kamala Harris, is running against former President Donald Trump in the Nov. 5 U.S. presidential election, remained fully committed to the ASEAN region, even though he is not attending the leader-level meetings.

A State Department statement said Blinken would leave on Tuesday for the Laotian capital of Vientiane and stay there until Friday, attending the East Asia Summit and a U.S.-Association of Southeast Asian Nations summit.

Blinken was originally scheduled to accompany Biden on a subsequent visit to Berlin and the Angolan capital Luanda, but the White House announced that the president was postponing those trips to handle preparations for Hurricane Milton and relief efforts after Hurricane Helene. Blinken is now expected to return home after the Vientiane trip, State Department spokesperson Matthew Miller said.

Kritenbrink said he had no details to share about Blinken's plans for bilateral meetings in Vientiane, including any with China, but a number of China-related issues would come up, including its "escalatory and irresponsible steps designed to coerce and pressure many of the South China Sea claimants."

On China's support for Russia over Ukraine, he added: "Our concerns regarding China's strong support for the Russian defense industrial base, they remain, they are ongoing, and I would say they are growing."

Kritenbrink said Washington remained "deeply concerned" about plans by Myanmar's military government to hold elections, and that these should not be held until there was genuine peace and reconciliation in the country.

He said there has been "virtually zero progress" in efforts to press the junta to reduce violence, release political prisoners and engage with the democratic opposition.

"The secretary will continue to emphasize to partners in the region that we must keep up pressure on the regime," he said.

"We ... fear that premature elections would be neither representative nor inclusive, and perhaps ... would likely only generate more violence and prolong the ongoing crisis," he said.

(Reporting by David Brunnstrom, Michael Martina and Doina Chiacu; Editing by Jonathan Oatis, Mark Porter and Bill Berkrot)

Lebanon abandoned by international community - ex PM

LEBANON HAS THE RIGHT OF SELF DEFENSE

Anna Foster - BBC News
Mon, October 7, 2024 

Fouad Siniora says the conflict in Lebanon should not be inextricably linked to the war in Gaza [BBC]


Lebanon’s prime minister at the time of its last war with Israel in 2006 has told the BBC his country has been abandoned by the international community.

Fouad Siniora said it was unacceptable to leave Lebanon to fall, and there was a lack of initiative when it came to trying to restore peace.

"We are now in a very difficult situation that requires real effort locally, as well on the Arab side and internationally.


"You can push things - sometimes to the brink of falling - in a major catastrophe without really realising what it means later on.

"It's happening at a time when the American administration is so busy with the elections.

"And we are unable to elect a president, because some groups in the country, particularly Hezbollah, have been insisting that they want a president that will not stab that group in the back," Siniora said.

The last war between Lebanon and Israel, nearly 20 years ago, began when Hezbollah fighters crossed the border and attacked Israeli soldiers. Two were kidnapped and three were killed, sparking a month-long conflict.

In the days that followed, Siniora made a public statement distancing the Lebanese government from what had happened.

He thinks the country’s current leaders have failed their people by not doing the same thing.

"This government did not do what my government did that day. My government was very clear and determined in stating that we were not aware, and we were not informed, of Hezbollah’s plan to cross the Blue Line on the border and to kidnap and kill Israeli soldiers.

"This time there hasn't been any move made by the Lebanese government. The advantage of what we did is that we created a distance between the Lebanese government and Lebanon on the one hand, and Hezbollah on the other," he explained.

Israel's military says it is hitting Hezbollah targets across Lebanon, including in the capital Beirut [ EPA-EFE/REX/Shutterstock]

Siniora is unflinching in his assessment of Lebanon’s lost sovereignty.

"Practically, Lebanon as a state has been kidnapped by Hezbollah. And behind Hezbollah is Iran.

"This gun that was held by Hezbollah, instead of being pointed towards Israel, started to be pointed domestically and started to be used as a way for Iran to interfere in Syria, in Iraq, in Yemen. Lebanon can’t get involved in such a war."

Siniora was also one of the architects of UN resolution 1701, the agreement which ended the 2006 war.

Among its conditions was that a swathe of southern Lebanon - the area south of the landmark Litani river - should be kept as a buffer zone between the two sides, free of any Hezbollah fighters or weapons.

Despite the deployment of the UN peacekeeping force Unifil and the presence of the Lebanese army, that didn’t happen. Hezbollah’s people, and its military infrastructure, remained bedded into the area.

This vacuum at the top of the Lebanese political system has made Hezbollah’s influence on the country particularly difficult to control.

Lebanon has been without a properly functioning government since its last set of elections in 2022, being run instead by a caretaker administration.

When President Michel Aoun’s term ended nearly two years ago, lawmakers couldn’t agree on his replacement - so the job remains empty. Many Lebanese believe leadership is in short supply.

Siniora is also clear that the conflict in Lebanon should not be inextricably linked to the current year-old war in Gaza.

Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi has visited regional capitals, calling for simultaneous ceasefires in both Lebanon and Gaza.

“Since October 2023 things have been dragging and getting worse and worse. Many chances were made available to dissociate the Lebanese situation from Gaza. It’s very important nationally and from an Arab point of view to associate with Gaza," Siniora said.

"But particularly now Lebanon cannot afford, in principle, to get involved in such a matter.

"When the Gaza situation has become 2.2 million Palestinians homeless and all of Gaza destroyed, to continue to link Lebanon's situation with Gaza is not wise."

Walz says Electoral College ‘needs to go’ at California fundraiser

ALONG WITH THE FILIBUSTER

Aaron Pellish, CNN
Tue, October 8, 2024 



Minnesota Gov. Tim Walz said the Electoral College “needs to go,” while acknowledging “that’s not the world we live in,” during a campaign fundraiser in California on Tuesday , according to a pool report.

“I think all of us know the Electoral College needs to go. We need, we need national popular vote, but that’s not the world we live in. So we need to win Beaver County, Pennsylvania. We need to be able to go into York, Pennsylvania, win. We need to be in western Wisconsin and win. We need to be in Reno, Nevada, and win,” the Democratic vice presidential nominee told supporters gathered at Gov. Gavin Newsom’s private residence in Sacramento, according to the pool report.

Walz’s call for eliminating the Electoral College is not an official campaign position, a Harris campaign official told CNN.


“Governor Walz believes that every vote matters in the Electoral College and he is honored to be traveling the country and battleground states working to earn support for the Harris-Walz ticket. He was commenting to a crowd of strong supporters about how the campaign is built to win 270 electoral votes. And, he was thanking them for their support that is helping fund those efforts,” a campaign spokesperson said in a statement.

Vice President Kamala Harris has previously expressed openness to eliminating the Electoral College. During a 2019 interview on “Jimmy Kimmel Live,” Harris, who was running for president at the time, said she was “open to the discussion” of abolishing the Electoral College.

“There’s no question that the popular vote has been diminished in terms of making the final decision about who’s the president of the United States and we need to deal with that, so I’m open to the discussion,” she said in 2019.

Walz’s remarks came at his second fundraiser of the day on Tuesday. He also attended a fundraiser in the suburbs of Seattle on Tuesday morning and spoke at another fundraiser in Reno, Nevada, in the evening before holding a campaign rally there.

In five US presidential elections – including in 2016, when former President Donald Trump beat Hillary Clinton – the eventual winner has lost the popular vote but won the Electoral College. The movement to abolish the Electoral College gained momentum in 2020 amid the United States’ reckoning with its history on race. Some historians argue the Electoral College’s origins are linked to White supremacy, but constitutional rules make changing or eliminating the system difficult.

CNN’s Faith Karimi contributed to this report.

For more CNN news and newsletters create an account at CNN.com

Why Hurricanes Helene and Milton Could Be the October Surprise

Mini Racker
Tue, October 8, 2024 

Photo Illustration by Thomas Levinson/The Daily Beast/Getty

As Donald Trump spreads misinformation about Democrats not helping people impacted by deadly Hurricane Helene, there’s a reason he may be antsy: those victims are mostly Republicans.

The Sun Belt battleground states of North Carolina, Georgia and Florida are taking a pummeling from two megastorms less than a month before Election Day. And history shows: a hurricane a month before a major election depresses turnout. This year, many of the hardest-hit regions are Trump strongholds.

In Western North Carolina, 25 counties were included in the “designated disaster area” ravaged by Helene. According to data, voters in those areas are overwhelmingly independent and Republican. In 2020, they supported Trump by a wide margin, helping him win the state. If they don’t vote this time around, Kamala Harris supporters could easily tip the toss-up state into her column.


Karine Jean-Pierre Spars with Fox Reporter Over Helene Misinformation

“Our hearts are with the North Carolinians impacted by Hurricane Helene,” said Dory MacMillan, communications director for the Harris campaign’s North Carolina operation. “And we are working closely with our legal and voter protection teams and the N.C. Democratic Party to ensure that every eligible voter is able to safely make their voices heard in this election.”

Elections officials are also doing what they can to make sure people can vote. The North Carolina State Board of Elections passed a slew of emergency measures this week for counties devastated by Helene. In these areas, local officials can modify early voting hours and sites in the ways they deem necessary. Early voting sites are in the process of installing porta-potties, washing stations, and generators.


STORM-HELENE/


The aftermath of Hurricane Helene, in Swannanoa, North Carolina, has the potential to reshape an election which polls suggest is tighter than any in recent history.
Eduardo Munoz/ReutersMore

“Our hope is that everybody who's eligible to vote in those areas will be able to do so,” the state’s Board of Elections public information director Patrick Gannon told the Daily Beast. “There will be options.”

Mail-in voting options could help, he said, with elections offices still sending and receiving mail, but for voters whose homes were destroyed, mail may be hard to access.

“The place where there would be issues would be if somebody's house is no longer there,” he said.

Displaced hurricane survivors in North Carolina can request absentee ballots wherever they’re staying and return them to any county board of elections office in the state. Still, for the tens of thousands of people driven from their homes, voting is likely to take a back seat to repairing their lives.

Kamala Harris Hits Trump Hard Over Hurricane ‘Lies’ on ‘The View’

Things may not be much better for the Trump campaign in Georgia and Florida, where the hurricane devastated mostly rural and red areas.

With Hurricane Milton bearing down on the Sunshine State, the full impacts of hurricane season on the election are still unfolding. Ahead of the storm, which has shown wind speeds up to 180 mph, President Joe Biden has postponed a trip to Germany and Angola. Trump has delayed a roundtable with Latino Americans. The mayor of Tampa, a city that hasn’t been hit directly in more than a century, told people who don’t evacuate, “You are going to die.”

Miles Taylor, the Trump administration staffer who once slammed the former president as “Anonymous” put it more bluntly, writing on X, “This has potential to wreak havoc—including on the election.”

But Milton could tip the election the other way. Tampa, where the storm is likely to make landfall, is a repository of Democratic votes in a sea of red counties. If it depresses turnout there, that could work to Trump’s advantage.

 Tampa Bay hasn’t been hit directly by a major hurricane since 1921. Milton may be the one

TERRY SPENCER and HAVEN DALEY

Updated Tue, October 8, 2024 

TAMPA, Fla. (AP) — Hurricane Milton weakened slightly Tuesday but remained a ferocious storm that could land a once-in-a-century direct hit on the populous Tampa Bay region with towering storm surges and turn debris from Helene's devastation 12 days ago into projectiles.

Almost the entirety of Florida's west coast was under a hurricane or tropical storm warning as the storm and its 145 mph (230 kph) winds spun just off Mexico's Yucatan peninsula, creeping toward the state at 12 mph (19 kph) and sucking energy from the Gulf of Mexico's warm waters.

Milton's center could come ashore Wednesday night in the Tampa Bay area, which has a population of more than 3.3 million people. The county that's home to Tampa ordered evacuations for areas adjacent to the bay and for all mobile and manufactured homes by Tuesday night.

“You do not have to get on the interstate and go far away,” Gov. Ron DeSantis said at a Tuesday morning news briefing, assuring residents that there would be enough gas to fuel their cars for the trip. “You can evacuate tens of miles; you do not have to evacuate hundreds of miles away. You do have options.”

DeSantis said that the state has helped evacuate over 200 health care facilities in Milton’s path and that 36 county-run shelters are open. The state has also been scrambling to remove debris from recent Hurricane Helene, lest the messes become projectiles when Milton strikes. He said the state has deployed over 300 dump trucks that are working around the clock and have removed of 1,200 loads of debris.

Lifeguards on the peninsula that forms Tampa Bay removed beach chairs and other items that could take flight in strong winds. Elsewhere, stoves, chairs, refrigerators and kitchen tables waited in heaps to be picked up. Sarah Steslicki, who lives in Belleair Beach, said she was frustrated that more debris had not been collected sooner.

“If this one does hit, it’s going to be flying missiles," she said Monday. "Stuff’s going to be floating and flying in the air.”

The National Hurricane Center downgraded Milton early Tuesday to a Category 4 hurricane, but forecasters said it still posed “ an extremely serious threat to Florida.” Milton had intensified quickly Monday, becoming a Category 5 storm at midday with maximum sustained winds of 180 mph (285 kph) before being downgraded.

Forecasters warned that Milton could bring a 10- to 15-foot (3- to 4.5-meter) storm surge to Tampa Bay, leading to evacuation orders being issued for beach communities all along the Gulf coast. In Florida, that means anyone who stays is on their own and first responders are not expected to risk their lives to rescue them at the height of the storm.

Milton is forecast to remain an extremely dangerous hurricane through landfall and as it makes its way across central Florida toward the Atlantic Ocean with rainfall totals as high as 18 inches (20 centimeters) possible, according to the hurricane center. Parts of the state’s eastern coast were put under hurricane and tropical storm warnings early Tuesday.

That path would largely spare other states ravaged by Helene, which killed at least 230 people on its path from Florida to the Appalachian Mountains.

Tampa Bay has not been hit directly by a major hurricane since 1921, and authorities fear luck is about to run out.

“In the end, it matters where it goes because how it affects people, and if you look at the population in Florida, there’s much more population across the central part of the state than there is in the Big Bend,” said hurricane specialist John Cangialosi, reflecting on Helene's path.

President Joe Biden approved an emergency declaration for Florida, and U.S. Rep. Kathy Castor said 7,000 federal workers were mobilized to help in one of the largest mobilizations of federal personnel in history.

“This is the real deal here with Milton,” Tampa Mayor Jane Castor told a Monday news conference. “If you want to take on Mother Nature, she wins 100% of the time.”

The Tampa Bay area is still rebounding from Helene and its powerful surge — a wall of water up to 8 feet (2.4 meters) it created even though its eye was 100 miles (160 kilometers) offshore. Twelve people died there, with the worst damage along a string of barrier islands from St. Petersburg to Clearwater.

Stragglers were a problem during Helene and 2022's Ian. Many residents failed to heed ample warnings, saying they evacuated during previous storms only to have major surges not materialize. But there was evidence Monday that people were getting out before Milton arrives.

A steady stream of vehicles headed north toward the Florida Panhandle on Interstate 75 as residents heeded evacuation orders. Traffic clogged the southbound lanes of the highway for miles as other residents headed for the relative safety of Fort Lauderdale and Miami on the other side of the state.

About 150 miles (240 kilometers) south of Tampa, Fort Myers Beach was nearly a ghost town Monday afternoon as an evacuation order took effect. Ian devastated the 5,000-resident community two years ago, its 15-foot (4.5-meter) storm surge destroying or severely damaging 400 homes and businesses. Fourteen people died there as they tried to ride out the storm, and dozens had to be rescued.

On Monday, the few residents who could be found were racing against the clock to safeguard their buildings and belongings. None said they were staying.

The signs of Ian's devastation remain visible everywhere. Rebuilt homes stand next to others in various states of construction. There are numerous vacant lots, which were once rare.

“This whole street used to be filled out with houses,” said Mike Sandell, owner of Pool-Rific Services. His workers were removing and storing pumps and heaters Monday from his clients' pools so they wouldn't get destroyed.

Home construction supplies like bricks, piping and even workers' outhouses lined the streets, potential projectiles that could do further damage if a surge hits.

At the beach Monday afternoon, workers busily emptied the triple-wide trailer that houses The Goodz, a combined hardware, convenience, fishing supply, ice cream and beach goods store. Owner Graham Belger said he moved his “Your Island Everything Store” into the trailer after Ian destroyed his permanent building across the street.

“We’ll rebuild, but it is going to be bad," he said.

Nearby, Don Girard and his son Dominic worked to batten down the family’s three-story combination rental and vacation home that’s about 100 feet (30.5 meters) from the water. Its first-floor garage and entranceway were flooded by Helene last month, Hurricane Debby in August, and a tide brought by a recent supermoon.

Ian was by far the worst. Its waves crashed into the 14-year-old home’s second floor, destroying the flooring. Girard repaired the damage, and his aqua-blue and white home stands in contrast to the older, single-story house across the street. It was submerged by Ian, never repaired and remains vacant. Its once-off-white walls are now tinged with brown. Plywood covers the holes that once contained windows and doors.

Girard, who owns a banner and flag company in Texas, said that while his feelings about owning his home are mostly positive, they are becoming mixed. He said every December, his extended family gathers there for the holidays. At that time of year, temperatures in southwest Florida are usually in the 70s (low 20s Celsius) with little rain or humidity. The area and its beaches fill with tourists.

“At Christmas, there is no better place in the world,” Girard said.

But flooding from Ian, the other storms and now Milton is leaving him frustrated.

“It’s been difficult, I’m not going to lie to you," Girard said. “The last couple years have been pretty bad.”

___

Spencer reported from Fort Myers Beach. Contributing to this report were Associated Press writers Mike Schneider in Orlando, Kate Payne in Tampa, Freida Frisaro in Fort Lauderdale and Seth Borenstein in Washington.