Why Trump accuses people of wrongdoing he himself committed − an explanation of projection

April Johnson, Kennesaw State University
Thu, October 10, 2024 
THE CONVERSATION 

Donald Trump accuses others of acts he has done 

Donald Trump has a particular formula he uses to convey messages to his supporters and opponents alike: He highlights others’ wrongdoings even though he has committed similar acts himself.

On Oct. 3, 2024, Trump accused the Biden administration of spending Federal Emergency Management Agency funds – money meant for disaster relief – on services for immigrants. Biden did no such thing, but Trump did during his time in the White House, including to pay for additional detention space.

This is not the first time he has accused someone of something he had done or would do in the future. In 2016, Trump criticized opponent Hillary Clinton’s use of an unsecured personal email server while secretary of state as “extreme carelessness with classified material.” But once he was elected, Trump continued to use his unsecured personal cellphone while in office. And he has been criminally charged with illegally keeping classified government documents after he left office and storing them in his bedroom, bathroom and other places at his Mar-a-Lago estate.

After complaining about how Hillary Clinton handled classified documents, Donald Trump stored national secrets in a bathroom. Justice Department via AP


More recently, the Secret Service arrested a man with a rifle who was allegedly planning to shoot Trump during a round of golf. In the wake of this event, Trump accused Democrats of using “inflammatory language” that stokes the fires of political violence. Meanwhile, Trump himself has a long history of making inflammatory remarks that could potentially incite violence.

As a scholar of both politics and psychology, I’m familiar with the psychological strategies candidates use to persuade the public to support them and to cast their rivals in a negative light. This strategy Trump has used repeatedly is called “projection.” It’s a tactic people use to lessen their own faults by calling out these faults in others.
Projection abounds

There are plenty of examples. During his Sept. 10, 2024, debate with Vice President Kamala Harris, Trump claimed that Democrats were responsible for the July 13 assassination attempt against him. “I probably took a bullet to the head because of the things that they say about me,” he declared.

Earlier in the debate he had falsely accused immigrants in Springfield, Ohio, of eating other people’s pets – a statement that sparked bomb threats and prompted the city’s mayor to declare a state of emergency.

Similarly, congressional investigators and federal prosecutors have found that Trump’s remarks called thousands of people to Washington, D.C., on Jan. 6, 2021, encouraging them to violently storm the Capitol in order to stop the counting of electoral votes.

Trump isn’t the only politician who uses projection. His running mate, JD Vance, claimed “the rejection of the American family is perhaps the most pernicious and the most evil thing the left has done in this country.” Critics quickly pointed out that his own family has a history of dysfunction and drug addiction.

Projection happens on both sides of the political aisle. In reference to Trump’s proposed 10% tariff on all imported goods, the Harris campaign launched social media efforts to condemn the so-called “Trump tequila tax.” While Harris frames this proposal as a sales tax that would devastate middle-class families, she deflects from the fact that inflation has made middle-class life more expensive since she and President Joe Biden took office.
How it works

Projection is one example of unconscious psychological processes called defense mechanisms. Some people find it hard to accept criticism or believe information that they wish were not true. So they seek – and then provide – another explanation for the difference between what’s happening in the world and what’s happening in their minds.

In general, this is called “motivated reasoning,” which is an umbrella phrase used to describe the array of mental gymnastics people use to reconcile their views with reality.

Some examples include seeking out information that confirms their beliefs, dismissing factual claims or creating alternate explanations. For example, a smoker might downplay or simply avoid information related to the link between smoking and lung cancer, or perhaps tell themselves that they don’t smoke as much as they actually do.

Motivated reasoning is not unique to politics. It can be a challenging concept to consider because people tend to think they are fully in control of their decision-making abilities and that they are capable of objectively processing political information. The evidence is clear, however, that there are unconscious thought processes at work, too.
Influencing the audience

Audiences are also susceptible to unconscious psychological dynamics. Research has found that over time, people’s minds subconsciously attach emotions to concepts, names or phrases. So someone might have a particular emotional reaction to the words “gun control,” “Ron DeSantis” or “tax relief.”

And people’s minds also unconsciously create defenses for those seemingly automatic emotions. When a person’s emotions and defenses are questioned, a phenomenon called the “backfire effect” can occur, in which the process of controlling, correcting or counteracting mistaken beliefs ends up reinforcing the person’s beliefs rather than changing them.

For instance, some people may find it hard to believe that the candidate they prefer – whom they believe to be the best person for the job – truly lost an election. So they seek another explanation and accept explanations that justify their beliefs. Perhaps they choose to believe, even in the absence of evidence, that the race was rigged or that many fraudulent votes were cast. And when evidence to the contrary is offered, they insist their views are correct.

Vice President Kamala Harris has campaigned with Liz Cheney, right, a prominent Republican who formerly served in Congress. AP Photo/Mark Schiefelbein
A way out

Fortunately, research shows specific ways to reduce people’s reliance on these automatic psychological processes, including reiterating and providing details of objective facts and – importantly – attempting to correct untruths via a trusted source from the same political party.

For instance, challenges to Democrats’ belief that the Trump-affiliated conservative agenda called Project 2025 is “dangerous” would be more effective coming from a Democrat than from a Republican.

Similarly, a counter to Trump’s claim that the international community is headed toward World War III with Democrats in the White House would be stronger coming from one of Trump’s fellow Republicans. And certainly, statements that Trump “can never be trusted with power again” carries more weight when it comes from the lips of former Republican Vice President Dick Cheney than from any member of the Democratic Party.

Critiques from within a candidate’s own party are not out of the question. But they are certainly improbable given the hotly charged climate that is election season 2024.

This article is republished from The Conversation, a nonprofit, independent news organization bringing you facts and trustworthy analysis to help you make sense of our complex world. It was written by: April Johnson, Kennesaw State University

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Obama Roasts Trump for Everything From Selling Bibles to Needing a Diaper at Pittsburgh Rally 

Sharon Knolle
Thu, October 10, 2024 



Barack Obama laid into fellow former President Donald Trump so thoroughly on Thursday that more than one X user quipped, “I’d like to report a murder.“

Obama, speaking at a rally in Pittsburgh, ticked off a long list of reasons why voters should reject Trump and vote for Democratic nominee Kamala Harris next month.

He disparaged “the constant attempts to sell you stuff” including gold sneakers, a $100,000 watch and the Trump Bible. “Who does that?” asked Obama with an incredulous shrug.

“You know, he wants you to buy the word of God, Donald Trump edition. Got his name right there next to Matthew and Luke,” he said of Trump’s “God Bless the USA Bibles,” which, it was reported this week, were printed in China. They are priced at $59.99 each.


The 44th president continued to blast the 45th, recalling his shock at finding out how much diapers cost after his oldest daughter Malia was born. “Do you think Donald Trump ever changed a diaper?,” he asked about the father of five.

One attendee shouted, “His own!”

Obama admitted with a laugh, “I almost said that, but I decided I should not say it.”

Trump was dubbed “Diaper Don” by the media in 2020 over reports that he wore adult diapers while filming the reality competition “The Apprentice.”

Trump supporters not only shrugged at the suggestion when it resurfaced during Trump’s tax fraud trial earlier this year, but proudly began wearing the absorbent underwear themselves at campaign events and carrying signs that read “real men wear diapers.”

Obama also blasted Trump for taking credit for the state of the economy when he took office in 2021. “I remember that economy when he first came in being pretty good. Yeah, it was pretty good, because it was my economy. It wasn’t something he did. I spent eight years cleaning up the mess that the Republicans had left me,” he said.

Watch a clip from the rally in the video above, and click through to @Acyn’s X account for more.

The post Obama Roasts Trump for Everything From Selling Bibles to Needing a Diaper at Pittsburgh Rally | Video appeared first on TheWrap.


An emotional Obama makes his harshest case yet against Trump at Pittsburgh rally

Gregory Krieg and Edward-Isaac Dovere

CNN
Thu, October 10, 2024 


Former President Barack Obama on Thursday delivered his most personal, furious indictment yet of Donald Trump and a Republican Party he said was in thrall to a man who he believes had, over the last week, violated the trust of Americans devastated by a pair of catastrophic hurricanes.

“The idea of intentionally trying to deceive people in their most desperate and vulnerable moments – my question is, when did that become OK?” Obama said, pointing to Trump’s lies about the federal government withholding assistance to hard-hit “Republican areas” or “siphoning off aid to give to undocumented immigrants.”

When a cheer rose up, he sharply quieted the room.

“I’m not looking for applause right now!” Obama said, his voice vibrating with emotion, before he asked Republicans and conservatives allied with Trump, “When did that become OK? Why would we go along with that?”



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Obama, addressing a buzzing crowd in Pittsburgh, drew sharp contrasts on policy and character – ripping Trump and talking up Harris on both fronts – and cast his successor as the mascot for a dangerous and increasingly nasty version of the country. Obama in past campaigns has relished mocking and criticizing Trump, but his speech and delivery on Thursday were stinging and unusually visceral.

“If you had a family member who acted like (Trump), you might still love them, but you’d tell ‘em, ‘You got a problem,’ and you wouldn’t put him in charge of anything,” Obama said. “And yet, when Donald Trump lies or cheats, or shows utter disregard for our Constitution, when he calls POWs ‘losers’ or fellow citizens ‘vermin,’ people make excuses for it.”

Turning his attention to voters who have expressed concern about Trump’s potential return to the White House and others who might not be paying close attention to the campaign, Obama issued a blunt call to action.

“Whether this election is making you feel excited or scared, or hopeful or frustrated, or anything in between, do not just sit back and hope for the best. Get off your couch and vote. Put down your phone and vote. Grab your friends and family and vote,” Obama said. “Vote for Kamala Harris.”

Obama also sought to push back against an argument that has been at the core of Trump’s campaign: That he represents a departure from the stale status quo.

“I get it why people are looking to shake things up. I mean, I am the ‘hopey-changey’ guy. I understand people feeling frustrated and feeling we can do better,” Obama said. “What I cannot understand is why anybody would think that Donald Trump will shake things up in a way that is good for you.”

Throughout his speech, Obama described Trump as uniquely greedy and duplicitous.

Trump’s tax plan, he said, was a giveaway to “to billionaires and big corporations.”

Trump’s pledge to impose harsh tariffs on foreign trade, Obama said, amounted to a glorified “sales tax” that would cost the average family thousands of dollars.

Trump’s claim to having guided a robust economy, he fumed, was ahistorical nonsense.

“Yeah, it was pretty good (when Trump took office in 2017) – because it was my economy,” Obama said. “It wasn’t something he did. I had spent eight years cleaning up the mess that the Republicans had left me the last time. So just in case everybody has a hazy memory, he didn’t do nothing except those big tax cuts.”

Trump’s promises, Obama concluded, were either outrageously false or dangerously simple.

“If you challenge Trump to elaborate and enumerate his ‘concepts,’ he will fall back on one answer,” Obama said. “Doesn’t matter what the issue is, housing, health care, education, paying the bills – their only answer is to blame immigrants.”

Obama came onto the stage at the Harris rally having spoken to a smaller group of voters late in the afternoon during a surprise stop at a local Harris campaign office. His message there was also pointed – but directed at Black men.

The lack of energy some see around Harris’ campaign, he said, “seems to be more pronounced with the brothers.”

“You’re thinking about sitting out or supporting somebody (in Trump) who has a history of denigrating you, because you think that’s a sign of strength, because that’s what being a man is? Putting women down?” Obama said. “That’s not acceptable.”

The problem, he suggested, was less complicated than some are making it out to be – and that it often comes down to sexism.

“You’re coming up with all kinds of reasons and excuses, I’ve got a problem with that,” Obama said. “Because part of it makes me think – and I’m speaking to men directly – part of it makes me think that, well, you just aren’t feeling the idea of having a woman as president, and you’re coming up with other alternatives and other reasons for that.”

As CNN reported, Harris had been focused on turning out Black men even before she took over as the Democratic nominee, trying to get the enthusiasm there for President Joe Biden.

“The concern is that the couch is going to win,” one person close to the Harris team told CNN. “We need to make sure that Black men, Hispanic men, don’t sit on the couch. Because if they don’t vote at all. That’s (a) vote for him.”

In response to the Harris campaign’s struggle to recreate, in short order, the multiracial Biden coalition of 2020, campaign operatives and allies have been offering a similar directive to the Obama delivered in Pittsburgh, often privately working to make the case to voters in close-up, intimate spaces.

Last month in Milwaukee, Harris’ brother-in-law, Anthony West, quietly attended a local meeting of the NAACP – a technically nonpartisan group whose members are filled with influential, mostly Democratic state activists and organizers.

In a recording of the meeting obtained by CNN, he made the case for Harris in strong terms.

“Remember you were raised by a strong Black woman, a strong Black woman took care of you, fed you, gave you an opportunity in life,” West told the NAACP audience, urging those in attendance to take the message home.

CNN’s Eva McKend contributed to this report.

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Trump's small-dollar donor fundraising is beset by confusion and fatigue

DAN MERICA, AARON KESSLER and RICHARD LARDNER
Updated Thu, October 10, 2024



- Doug Deeken, the chair of the Wayne County Republican Party in Ohio poses at the Wayne County Republican Party headquarters in Wooster, Ohio, Oct. 8, 2024.

 (AP Photo/Tom E. Puskar)

WASHINGTON (AP) — Donald Trump’s contributions from small-dollar donors have plummeted since his last bid for the White House, presenting the former president with a financial challenge as he attempts to keep pace with Democrats' fundraising machine.

Fewer than a third of the Republican's campaign contributions have come from donors who gave less than $200 — down from nearly half of all donations in his 2020 race, according to an analysis by The Associated Press and OpenSecrets, an organization that tracks political spending.

The total collected from small donors has also declined, according to the analysis. Trump raised $98 million from such contributors through June, a 40% drop compared to the $165 million they contributed during a corresponding period in his previous presidential race.

The dip has forced Trump to rely more on wealthy donors and groups backed by them, a shift that cuts into the populist message that first propelled him to the White House. The decline in donations could not come at a worse time for Trump. Democrats have raised massive sums from small-dollar donors this cycle. President Joe Biden and then Vice President Kamala Harris have raised a staggering $285 million from such donors since April 2023, representing more than 40% of their fundraising, according to data from OpenSecrets.

GOP operatives said the trend could portend trouble for the broader party. Trump’s fundraising dip raises questions about the party’s ability to continue tapping its aging base for funds. Such voters often live on fixed incomes and don’t have the extra cash to contribute to candidates, and polls have consistently found that the Republican base is growing older.

Republicans also engaged in a hyperaggressive — often combative — style of digital fundraising that is alienating voters, the operatives said. Campaigns and committees often share or rent lists of donors to each other, leading to voters being flooded with similar solicitations that can be confusing.

“Republican vendors have so mistreated our donors that many grassroots donors don’t want to give to us anymore,” said John Hall, a Republican fundraising consultant and partner at Apex Strategies. “If you make a donation to almost any Republican candidate today, within three weeks you are going to start getting 30-50 text messages from other candidates you have never heard of before.”

Hall’s firm sent surveys to Republican donors earlier this year and found that a majority of those who responded said they continued to receive text message solicitations after they had requested to be removed from a list.

“Donors feel like they are never thanked, they feel abused, and they don’t know how to get off lists,” Hall said. “This has a chilling effect on everyone’s fundraising.”

Small-dollar donors are frustrated

Small-dollar donors echoed Hall's concerns. They told the AP they stopped giving to Trump's campaign because they were tired of being barraged with solicitations for donations from other Republicans, who presumably got the donor information from the Trump campaign. Others said they were being more careful about their political giving due to financial struggles.

“I am sick of them asking for money,” said Susan Brito, 51, of Florida, who gave dozens of small donations totaling $69 in 2022 and 2023 but hasn't contributed this year. ”I am disabled, you are sending me text, after text, after text.”

Bill Ruggio, 70, donated nearly every month, a total of $60, to Trump's campaign over 2022 and 2023. He hasn't contributed anything this year, saying he doesn't have the extra cash and is deeply frustrated by a barrage of text messages he receives from the Republican candidates and committees.

“I don’t even look at my texts anymore during the political season. It is just so many that I miss personal ones because there are so many of the political ones,” Ruggio said. “It kind of sticks in your craw.”

Doug Deeken, the Republican Party chair in Wayne County, Ohio, said such complaints are fairly common.

“People get annoyed by the text messages, and the direct mail, and the emails, Deeken said, his phone filled with texts from random conservative groups asking for money. “It is annoying. It annoys me!”

Trump campaign blames Harris for drop-off

Karoline Leavitt, a Trump campaign spokesperson, did not directly respond to the donor drop-off, but blamed the Biden administration and Harris for a bad economy leading people to have less money, something “President Trump completely understands."

Before Trump, Democrats dominated the small-dollar donor playing field, but Trump cut into the advantage in 2016, turning his devoted base into small donations throughout the year. Trump raised $170 million from small-dollar donors, about 52% of his total, according to OpenSecrets. The candidate’s haul from small donors outpaced the $164 million that Democratic nominee Hillary Clinton raised from such contributors, a figure that represented just under 30% of her total fundraising. In 2020, Trump continued that fundraising prowess.

The problem this year, said Republican officials and activists in key states, is that the persistent fundraising requests from campaigns and committees have led voters to question whether their money is actually going to Trump. One reason for this issue is major email lists being rented out by smaller campaigns. This means that someone who has signed up to receive emails from Trump, could get emails from a host of Republican candidates, raising skepticism about where their money is actually going.

“It’s the total number of texts people are getting and fundraising requests that are coming in. That causes the confusion,” said Shannon Burns, a top Republican activist in Ohio and vocal Trump supporter. Burns said donors feel “bombarded” by the often breathless outreach from a range of groups, leading to questions from Trump supporters. Those questions were so frequent, he said, that at one point he began giving out the physical mailing address where a Trump supporter could send a check.

Trump's campaign has tried to stop committees from using his name and likeness in fundraising appeals.

In March 2023, the Trump campaign sent Republican digital fundraising vendors a memo that stated the former president “does not consent” to outside groups or candidates using his name or image in fundraising appeals. He also sent a cease and desist letter to the top Republican committees in Washington in 2021, urging them to stop using his name in fundraising appeals.

Still supporting Trump at the ballot box

Trump has experienced spikes in small-dollar fundraising this cycle — like in the days after his felony conviction in May and when a gunman attempted to assassinate the candidate in July. But those jolts have not made up for a steady decline in donations from people like Stephen Buckhalter.

Buckhalter, 78, retired from the insurance industry a year ago and donated $120 to Trump's campaign in 2022 and 2023. He stopped this year.

“The cost of living has gotten to the point where there is not much left at the end of the month,” he said. “When you are paying all this extra money for food and gas and insurance and rent… that doesn’t leave a lot of extra money coming in at the end of the month.”

When asked if his decision to stop donating indicates he no longer supports Trump, Buckhalter was blunt: “Heck no.”

Fewer ‘everyday people’ have donated to Trump’s campaign than in 2020
Ariana Baio
Thu, October 10, 2024

Donald Trump’s campaign has seen a significant decrease in the number of small donors compared to 2020 (Getty Images)

Donald Trump’s campaign has seen a more than 10-percentage-point drop in the number of “small donors” this presidential election cycle compared to the 2020 election cycle.

So far this year, and with just 25 days until election day, only 31.7 percent of campaign donations have come from small donors – classified as people who give less than $200, according to OpenSecrets.

In 2020, nearly half of Trump’s campaign donations came from small donors.

The decrease in donations from average Americans means the former president must rely more on wealthy donors or political action committees backed by wealthy donors. But that also means Trump must deliver a message that appeals to his wealthy donors – which can often be at odds with average voters.


Recently, Trump earned the endorsement and support of billionaire Elon Musk who also serves as the CEO of the electric vehicle manufacturing company Tesla. This has, seemingly, forced Trump to soften his stance on EVs during rallies, for example.

Meanwhile, Vice President Kamala Harris’s campaign has seen a steady flow of money from small donors, with 41 percent of her campaign funds coming from those who give less than $200.

Harris has recieved $1 billion in campaign donations since entering the presidential election in July, according to a recent report, compared to the $600 million that the Trump campaign has raised.

In an attempt to get supporters to donate, the Trump campaign has used flashy emails with contest opportunities and merch giveaways if people give money. Some of those contests include opportunities to meet Trump, win signed merchandise or have dinner at his golf club in Palm Beach, Florida.

The campaign has also capitalized on the former president’s various federal and state court cases to beg supporters to donate. The messaging often claims donations directly help Trump fight unfair prosecutions.

Those techniques appear less effective than they once were. Republican operatives suggested to the Associated Press it raises concerns about marketing to a conservative base, often comprised of older individuals living on fixed incomes.

But also it calls into question the technique of raiding voters’s inboxes with emails, text messages, flyers and more. Recent polling has shown that voters are irritated with the number of campaign messages they receive directly to their phones and the inability to opt out makes it all the more frustrating.

Opinion

If Trump’s Fundraising Numbers Are Any Clue, He’s in Serious Trouble

Paige Oamek
Thu, October 10, 2024 
THE NEW REPUBLIC


Donald Trump might be pushing his loyal followers past their limits, according to new campaign contribution data.

On Wednesday, it was announced that Vice President Kamala Harris broke records, raising $1 billion for her campaign in less than 80 days on the campaign trail. Meanwhile, on Thursday, OpenSecrets and the Associated Press reported that Trump’s camp may be suffering from some donor fatigue.

According to new data, less than a third of Trump’s campaign contributions have come from donors who gave less than $200. Comparing his 2024 campaign through the month of June to the same period in 2020, Trump has suffered a steep 40 percent drop in small donors.

“I am sick of them asking for money,” voter Susan Brito of Florida, who gave dozens of donations in 2022 and 2023, told the AP. “I am disabled, you are sending me text, after text, after text.” Brito chose not to give to the Trump campaign this year.

In response to complaints from his base that they can’t spare the cash and plan to not donate, Trump campaign spokesperson Karoline Leavitt ignored the red flags and blamed the Democratic administration for a struggling economy. Meanwhile, Harris keeps finding new ways to energize her base and bring in new donors. Three-quarters of Harris’s donors in August did not contribute in the previous presidential election, according to her campaign.

Trump’s small-donor issue means that the Republican nominee will be forced to rely more and more on wealthy donors like Elon Musk or Marc Andreessen to keep his campaign afloat.

Kamala Harris has raised $1 billion since launching presidential campaign

Fredreka Schouten and Edward-Isaac Dovere, 

CNN
Wed, October 9, 2024 


Vice President Kamala Harris’ political team has raised $1 billion since entering the presidential race in late July, two sources familiar with the figure told CNN – marking a massive fundraising milestone in her campaign against former President Donald Trump.

Other presidential candidates, alongside their political parties, have exceeded the $1 billion mark in past elections. But Harris has crossed that threshold at a breakneck pace, underscoring how much her ascension to the top of the Democratic ticket roughly two-and-a-half months ago has transformed the finances of this year’s White House contest.

“It’s clear that Harris has done something absolutely unprecedented,” said Sarah Bryner, research director at the nonpartisan group OpenSecrets, which tracks money in elections.

The Harris campaign declined to comment. Presidential campaigns will report full details of their September fundraising and spending to the Federal Election Commission later this month.

The surge in giving has helped Harris rocket past the sums collected by Trump’s campaign. His team has announced collecting roughly $430 million jointly with the Republican Party during the three months between the start of July and the end of September.

At this rate, the former president could struggle to even match what his political operation raised during the 2020 campaign, OpenSecrets’ researchers noted in a report this week.

Outside super PACs funded by wealthy Republicans are helping Trump to bridge the financial gap. A Trump-aligned super PAC, Make America Great Again, Inc., has led outside spending in the presidential race. But a super PAC affiliated with Elon Musk, the world’s richest man and a prominent Trump backer, has plowed more than $79 million into this year’s elections.

The $1 billion figure for Harris was first reported by NBC News.

Harris' political operation crosses $1 billion raised for the 2024 election

Natasha Korecki and Jonathan Allen and Carol E. Lee
Updated Wed, October 9, 2024


Democrats' presidential fundraising took off when Kamala Harris jumped into the race in place of Joe Biden in July.

Vice President Kamala Harris' presidential campaign operation crossed the $1 billion fundraising threshold in September, two months after she took over as the Democratic Party's standard-bearer, according to two people familiar with the numbers.

The figure includes money raised by the campaign committee itself and by a campaign-affiliated joint fundraising committee that also collects cash for the Democratic National Committee and state parties

The staggering pace suggests Harris has been able to sustain enthusiasm among donors, large and small, as the campaign enters the stretch run before the Nov. 5 election. But it comes amid a historic onslaught of outside spending from super PACs and other groups that has the Harris campaign concerned — particularly about direct mail, in which Republicans have opened a steep advantage in recent months, and on the ground, with groups like Elon Musk's super PAC and others working to turn out voters for former President Donald Trump.

Meanwhile, public polling shows a finely balanced contest, with little separating Harris and Trump in the key swing states that will ultimately decide the election — and a sliver of swing voters still waiting to decide based on something they see in the last four weeks.

Presidential campaigns tend to take in more money as an election nears, but a clip of roughly half a billion dollars a month is unheard of. Biden's campaign raised a little more than $1 billion for the entire 2020 election cycle, which included a competitive primary campaign, and affiliated outside groups chipped in another $580 million, according to the Center for Responsive Politics.

Harris has opened up a huge cash advantage over Trump, who had raised just $309 million for his campaign through the end of August.

Republican super PACs are helping fill in the gap, spending more than $80 million on TV ads across the country in September, according to AdImpact, an ad-tracking service. The biggest GOP groups have reserved more than $100 million in ads for the final weeks.

And yet more money is pouring into online, mail and door-to-door campaigning.

This article was originally published on NBCNews.com

 

Bernie Sanders will 'rally for the working class' in Belvidere, MI

Jeff Kolkey, Rockford Register Star
Thu, October 10, 2024 



U.S. Sen. Bernie Sanders will join United Auto Workers President Shawn Fain in Belvidere for a "Rally with the Working Class to End Trump’s NAFTA 2.0."

The rally is scheduled at 10 a.m. Friday at the UAW Local 1268, 1100 W. Chrysler Drive in Belvidere.

Sanders, the independent senator from Vermont, has long opposed free trade agreements he argues do not protect American jobs, harm the environment and speed climate change. Sanders supported the UAW during its 2023 Stand Up Strike in which it won wage increases and a promise to invest nearly $5 billion to re-open the Belvidere Assembly Plant and build a joint-venture battery production facility in Belvidere.

Stellantis has told UAW officials that it will not launch the Belvidere consolidated Mopar hub as planned in 2024, will not begin stamping operations in 2025 and will not begin production of a midsize truck in 2027. In response, the UAW has held several "Keep the Promise" rallies including one this week in Washington D.C. which it said was to demand Stellantis keep $19 billion worth of product and investment commitments.

UAW locals have filed grievances in preparation for a potential strike as Stellantis says market conditions have forced it to delay its promised investment in Belvidere. UAW officials have said a strike against the owner of Jeep, Ram, Chrysler, Dodge and Fiat could come within weeks.

Stellantis has claimed that language in its labor agreement with the UAW would make a strike illegal and it has filed lawsuits against the union, the Detroit Free Press reports.

“Stellantis made a promise to invest in America and we’re making sure they keep the promise,” Fain said in a news release. “The commitments we won in our contract aren’t goals, they’re guarantees. The company claims they don’t have the money to make these investments. But since the year began, they’ve dumped more than $3 billion into stock buybacks. They have the money to Keep The Promise.”

Jeff Kolkey writes about government, economic development and other issues for the Rockford Register Star. He can be reached at (815) 987-1374, via email at jkolkey@rrstar.com and on X @jeffkolkey.

This article originally appeared on Rockford Register Star: Bernie Sanders, Shawn Fain coming to UAW rally in Belvidere

Bernie Sanders visits Michigan State University for Harris campaign

Taryn Simmons
Wed, October 9, 2024 


EAST LANSING, Mich. (WLNS)— Bernie Sanders discussed women’s rights, climate change, and wealth inequality during the Harris-Walz campaign.

Senator Bernie Sanders was joined by United Auto President Shawn Fain to help boost the Harris-Walz campaign this Sunday afternoon at Michigan State University.

The two spoke to voters young and old about fighting for the future during this election.

Sanders says the reason he joined the campaign was to ensure that Kamala Harris is the next president of the United States.

In his speech, he discussed the overturning of Roe v. Wade, climate change, and wealth disparities within the country.

He says the richest people in our country are doing well, but that isn’t the case for many other Americans.

“We have got to bring our people together. To create an economy that works for all of us. Not just the billionaire class,” said Sanders. “So, what we’re seeing right now, working people are struggling. People on top never had it so good and we need a government that protects all of us, not just wealth campaign contributors.”

Sanders also says that 60% of U.S. citizens live paycheck to paycheck.

Fain praised the Biden-Harris administration for their accomplishments and wants Michigan voters to focus on labor rights.

“We stand together as working class people. When we withhold out labor,” said Fain. “Nothing moves and that’s what this movement is about. Working class people have to take our power back by standing together.”

Fain and Sanders visited Grand Rapids earlier today.

Copyright 2024 Nexstar Media, Inc. All rights reserved. This material may not be published, broadcast, rewritten, or redistributed.

UAW Leader Says Trump’s Show Of Auto Worker Support Is ‘A Con’

Dave Jamieson
Thu, October 10, 2024 


The Detroit News reported earlier this week that several people wearing “Auto Workers for Trump” T-shirts at a Donald Trump campaign event in Michigan were not actually auto workers.

The report didn’t seem to surprise Shawn Fain, president of the United Auto Workers union.

“It’s pathetic. Everything he does is a con,” Fain said Thursday, referencing Trump.

The UAW, which is based in the crucial swing state of Michigan, has endorsed Harris, and its leader Fain has become one of Trump’s most fiery critics. Fain was speaking on a call hosted by the Kamala Harris campaign ahead of Trump’s scheduled address to the Detroit Economic Club.

“There is a stark contrast between Donald Trump and Kamala Harris,” he said. “Kamala Harris has stood with labor. She’s walked the walk. Donald Trump serves himself. He’s always served himself.

It’s pathetic. Everything he does is a con. Shawn Fain on Donald Trump

Most major unions have lined up behind Harris and plan to help the Democratic nominee’s get-out-the-vote efforts ahead of Election Day. However, the International Brotherhood of Teamsters announced last month that it would not make an endorsement, citing membership polls showing more support for Trump among its rank and file.

Like the Teamsters, the UAW makes its endorsement (or non-endorsement) through a vote by its executive board, rather than a vote by its membership.

Asked about the Teamsters’ decision to stay out of the race, Fain said he believed he had “a responsibility as a leader” to take a stand against Trump, noting the former president’s patently anti-union record while in office. He didn’t deny a significant share of the union’s members would support Trump.

Quoting legendary UAW leader Walter Reuther, Fain said there was a correlation between the “ballot box” and the “bread box,” and argued that gains unions and workers have made could be lost if Trump wins the presidency.

“What we bargain at the bargaining table can be taken away,” he said, noting that anti-union officials appointed by Trump made it more difficult for workers to organize.

Shawn Fain, shown here at the UAW's convention in January, has become a prominent Trump critic. via Associated Press

Fain accused Trump of trying to “divide” the union during its historic strike against the Big Three automakers last year. He also took a shot at the Republican nominee for praising his supporter Elon Musk as the type of boss who would fire striking workers, which is generally illegal.

The latter was a reference to a chat Trump had with the X owner on the social media platform in August. The UAW filed unfair labor practice charges with the National Labor Relations Board over the remarks, alleging Trump and Musk were trying to intimidate workers.

“He sits there and applauds Elon Musk for trying to fire striking workers, and they laugh about that,” Fain said. “And that’s why I said Donald Trump is a scab.”

The “Auto Workers for Trump” group is real, founded by a retired auto worker named Brian Pannebecker. But that doesn’t mean all rallygoers wearing the shirts have actually worked in an auto factory.

The Detroit News reported there were “more than a dozen” people wearing the T-shirts at an event headlined by Trump’s running mate, Ohio Sen. JD Vance, in Detroit on Tuesday. But six of them told the outlet they aren’t auto workers themselves. Two said Pannebecker had given them the shirts.

During the UAW work stoppage last year, many media outlets reported that Trump would be addressing striking workers in Michigan. In reality, he was giving a speech at a small, non-union auto parts manufacturer.

They wore 'Auto Workers for Trump' shirts at a JD Vance rally. But they're not actually auto workers

Owen Bellwood / Jalopnik
Thu, October 10, 2024 

NON UNION MADE TRUMP T SHIRTS

Auto Workers For Trump was founded in response to the UAW’s endorsement of the Harris campaign - Photo: JEFF KOWALSKY / AFP (Getty Images)

Political rallies bring out all kinds of catchy slogans from people who are there to support their heroes. Now, a group of people sporting “Auto Workers For Trump” tops at a JD Vance rally this week in Detroit have been found to have very little in common with the message they’re supporting.

In Detroit this week, vice presidential hopeful JD Vance hosted a rally to drum up support for Donald Trump in his reelection campaign. During the sparsley attended rally, a group of supporters was spotted sporting t-shirts emblazoned with the slogan “Auto Workers For Trump,” which might lead you to think that the people wearing the tops hold some kind of humble jobs in the auto industry.

It appears that at least around half of the people wearing the tops don’t work in the auto industry at all, reports the Detroit News:

Vance, the running mate of former President Donald Trump and a U.S. senator from Ohio, spoke and took questions for about an hour in Detroit’s Eastern Market Shed 3. Several hundred people attended the event, including more than a dozen who were wearing “auto workers for Trump” shirts. However, six of the people in the shirts told The Detroit News on Tuesday they were not actually auto workers.

The shirts were distributed by the Auto Workers For Trump 2024 group, reports Newsweek. The organization was reportedly set up following the United Auto Workers (UAW) union’s endorsement of Kamala Harris.

The group was formed by retired auto worker Brian Pannebecker, who distributed the shirts to spectators and asked members of the auto industry to attend the rally alongside him wearing one of the shirts, as Newsweek reports:

Pannebecker told Newsweek Tuesday evening that he had asked from 30 to 40 autoworkers, both active and retired, if they would like to attend the event to show support for the Republicans’ “pro-American worker policies.”

“A couple of the active auto workers said they had to work and couldn’t get off, and asked if their spouse could have a seat in their place,” he said in a written statement.

“Of course, I said yes, because these families deserve the opportunity to show their support for the candidates who understand what needs to be done to save Detroit’s automotive industry and our economy.”

While “30 to 40” auto workers were approached to wear the tops, a much smaller number of them actually showed up in them. However, their presence was enough to lead Vance to call himself an “ally” of the auto industry while on stage, adding that, should Trump win in November, the administration will throw its support behind the American auto industry.

Analysts aren’t so sure of those promises, however, with some warning that Trump’s policies could pave the way for China to become a global leader in EVs and leave America in the dust.

A version of this article originally appeared on Jalopnik.

UNION MADE UNION T-SHIRT 

UAW's Fain slams Trump, says lack of commitment to EVs would cost US jobs

Andrea Shalal
Thu, October 10, 2024 




WASHINGTON — UAW President Shawn Fain on Thursday said hundreds of thousands of U.S. jobs are at stake if former President Donald Trump wins the Nov. 5 election and moves to repeal investments in electric vehicles.

Democrats have seized on Trump's running mate, U.S. Sen. JD Vance of Ohio, declining to commit to maintaining a $500 million investment to help GM convert an existing Cadillac plant into an electric vehicle facility.

Fain, who has endorsed the Democratic nominee in the race, Vice President Kamala Harris, said removing the funds would put at risk some 650 jobs in Lansing and have a greater impact across the United States.

"It's a lot bigger than just the Lansing Grand River investment. It's factories all over the United States, and it's supply chain factories all over the United States that are being put in place now. So you're talking hundreds of thousands of jobs that Donald Trump is just writing off," Fain told reporters ahead of Trump's visit to Detroit later on Thursday.

Vance had drawn fire from the UAW last week for giving noncommittal answers on questions about the money allocated to GM for the electric vehicle plant.

Vance: $500 million is 'table scraps'

Asked about it again on Tuesday, Vance said neither he nor Trump had ever said they would take "any money that's going to Michigan autoworkers out of the state of Michigan" and said the Biden administration's push for EV investments threatened some 117,000 autoworker jobs.

"What we've said is that Kamala Harris is offering table scraps — $500 million — when you have an EV mandate that's going to cost 117,000 autoworker jobs," Vance said.

Harris told a rally in Michigan last week she had no plans to institute an all-EV mandate, but wanted consumers to have a choice and companies to be able to compete with China.

Some autoworkers worry that switching to EVs could reduce the number of jobs in the industry, a claim Harris and her advisers reject, saying EV parts will also be made in the U.S.

Fain doubts autoworker support for Trump

Fain underscored the UAW's endorsement of Harris, saying the Biden administration had imposed a 100% tariff on Chinese EVs to ensure U.S. automakers had space to expand in that sector.

He rejected the idea that a large number of autoworkers supported Trump, saying internal polls showed that 65% of union members had consistently voted for Democratic candidates.

"It's a very clear picture for us on who stands with working-class people," he said, adding that Harris had joined a picket line in 2019 when GM workers were on strike and Trump was in office but remained silent on the labor action.

Trump told Reuters in August that if elected he would consider ending a $7,500 tax credit for electric vehicle purchases included in the Biden administration's Inflation Reduction Act, saying tax credits and incentives were "not generally a very good thing."

If elected, Trump could take steps to reverse Treasury Department rules that have made it easier for automakers to take advantage of the $7,500 credit or could ask Congress to repeal it entirely.

While president, Trump sought to repeal the EV tax credit which was later expanded by President Joe Biden in 2022.

This article originally appeared on Detroit Free Press: UAW's Fain slams Trump in argument over EV investments


UAW chief slams Trump over threat to repeal EV investments

Andrea Shalal
Updated Thu, October 10, 2024 

FILE PHOTO: EVGO Fast electric vehicle chargers in California


By Andrea Shalal

WASHINGTON (Reuters) -United Auto Workers President Shawn Fain on Thursday said hundreds of thousands of U.S. jobs were at stake if Republican former President Donald Trump won the Nov. 5 election and made good on his threat to repeal investments in electric vehicles.

Democrats have seized on Trump's running mate, U.S. Senator JD Vance of Ohio, declining to commit to maintaining a $500 million investment to help GM convert an existing Cadillac plant into an electric vehicle facility.

Fain, who has endorsed the Democratic nominee in the race, Vice President Kamala Harris, said removing the funds would put at risk some 650 jobs in Lansing, Michigan, and have a greater impact across the United States.

"It's a lot bigger than just the Lansing Grand River investment. It's factories all over the United States, and it's supply chain factories all over the United States that are being put in place now. So you're talking hundreds of thousands of jobs that Donald Trump is just writing off," Fain told reporters ahead of Trump's visit to Detroit later on Thursday.

Vance had drawn fire from the UAW last week for giving noncommittal answers on questions about the money allocated to GM for the electric vehicle plant.

Asked about it again on Tuesday, Vance said neither he nor Trump had ever said they would take "any money that's going to Michigan auto workers out of the state of Michigan" and said the Biden administration's push for EV investments threatened some 117,000 autoworker jobs.

"What we've said is that Kamala Harris is offering table scraps - $500 million - when you have an EV mandate that's going to cost 117,000 auto worker jobs," Vance said, adding that EVs were selling slower than gas-powered cars.

Harris told a rally in Michigan last week she had no plans to institute an all-EV mandate, but wanted consumers to have a choice and companies to be able to compete with China.

Some autoworkers worry that switching to EVs could reduce the number of jobs in the auto industry, a claim Harris and her advisers reject, saying EV parts will also be made in the U.S.

Fain underscored the UAW's endorsement of Harris, saying the Biden administration had imposed a 100% tariff on Chinese EVs to ensure U.S. automakers had space to expand in that sector.

He rejected the idea that a large number of autoworkers supported Trump, saying internal polls showed that 65% of union members had consistently voted for Democratic candidates.

"It's a very clear picture for us on who stands with working class people," he said, adding that Harris had joined a picket line in 2019 when GM workers were on strike and Trump was in office but remained silent on the labor action.

Trump told Reuters in August that if elected he would consider ending a $7,500 tax credit for electric vehicle purchases included in the Biden administration's Inflation Reduction Act, saying tax credits and incentives were "not generally a very good thing."If elected, Trump could take steps to reverse Treasury Department rules that have made it easier for automakers to take advantage of the $7,500 credit or could ask the U.S. Congress to repeal it entirely.

While president, Trump sought to repeal the EV tax credit which was later expanded by President Joe Biden in 2022.

(Reporting by Andrea Shalal; editing by Susan Heavey and Deepa Babington)

Trump courts auto workers with car loan tax break, China crackdown

Nora Eckert and David Shepardson
Updated Thu, October 10, 2024

Republican presidential nominee and former U.S. President Donald Trump makes an appearance at the Detroit Economic Club


By Nora Eckert and David Shepardson

DETROIT/WASHINGTON (Reuters) -Republican presidential candidate Donald Trump on Thursday proposed making interest on car loans tax-deductible and preventing Chinese automakers from selling vehicles in the United States, in a push to appeal to autoworkers in the final weeks of election campaigning.

In a speech to the Detroit Economic Club that ran for about two hours, Trump criticized electric vehicles, the United Auto Workers union that represents auto workers, and even the city of Detroit where he was speaking.

Polls show Trump and Democratic nominee Kamala Harris are locked in a tight race ahead of the Nov. 5 election, with the outcome expected to be decided by slim margins in battleground states like Michigan, of which Detroit is the largest city.

He alluded to the city's economic struggles in his speech while taking a jab at Harris.

"The whole country is going to be like, you want to know the truth, it'll be like Detroit. Our whole country will end up being like Detroit if [Harris] is your president," Trump said.

The plan on car loans - which would treat interest paid on vehicle loans like home mortgages on federal tax returns - is the latest in a long string of potential tax cuts the former U.S. president has floated during the final weeks of his campaign against Harris.

The speech focused on the U.S. auto industry, which is headquartered in Detroit. Trump said he would impose new tariffs to prevent Chinese automakers from building cars in Mexico and exporting them to the United States.

Trump, who on Sunday said he would slap tariffs as high as 200%, suggested he could impose even higher tariffs on vehicles.

"I will impose whatever tariffs are required - 100%, 200% 1,000%," Trump said. Mexico exported just over 2.5 million vehicles to the United States last year.

He also said he will formally notify Mexico and Canada of his intent to renegotiate a North American free trade deal to address concerns about Chinese vehicles. Harris, the U.S. vice president, has also said she plans to invoke the renegotiation provision if elected.

Critics say the free trade deal approved during Trump's term allowed the Detroit Three automakers to continue to produce hundreds of thousands of vehicles in Mexico and export them to U.S. buyers.

STIMULATING PRODUCTION

Congress in 1986 repealed the federal deduction for interest paid on auto and other consumer loans as part of a tax reform bill. In September, buyers paid an average interest rate of 7.1% on new cars and 11.2% on used cars, according to car research company Edmunds.

Trump said the tax cut "will stimulate massive domestic auto production, and make car ownership dramatically more affordable for millions and millions of working American families."

If elected, Trump will need congressional support to pass changes of tax laws.

President Joe Biden last month proposed prohibiting key Chinese software and hardware in vehicles with internet connectivity on American roads due to national security concerns, a move that would effectively bar Chinese cars and trucks from the U.S. market. Biden separately announced new 100% tariffs on all Chinese EVs effective Sept. 27 -- on top of a 25% import tariff on all Chinese vehicles that Trump imposed.

Trump also said he will close loopholes around Chinese cars being allowed into the U.S.

Biden last month also proposed barring Chinese automakers from testing autonomous vehicles on U.S. roads.

(Reporting by David Shepardson; editing by Chris Sanders, Scott Malone and Deepa Babington)

Donald Trump Goes to Detroit and Insults the Entire City

Mini Racker
Thu, October 10, 2024 

Rebecca Cook/Reuters

Donald Trump on Thursday addressed business leaders in Detroit, where he insulted their city and big companies.

“You want to know the truth?” Trump told members of the Detroit Economic Club as he painted a picture of what his opponent would do to America. “It’ll be like Detroit. Our whole country will end up being like Detroit if she’s your president. You’re going to have a mess on your hands.”

Audience members clapped when Trump said he wouldn’t allow Kamala Harris to make the rest of the country mirror their hometown, suggesting that, at least among his fans, Trump’s comments weren’t too off base.

The former president has insulted Democratic-leaning urban areas before, especially by claiming they are hotspots of voter fraud. But three weeks before the election in a crucial swing state, the derision of the city was shocking.

Michigan Democrats hit back. Hard.

“I represent Detroit in Congress,” Rep. Shri Thanedar posted on X. “Detroit is a city with a booming economy, diverse culture, and some of the best people in America. Donald Trump: keep Detroit and our people out of your mouth. We will elect Kamala Harris.”

Gov. Gretchen Whitmer also attacked Trump's election-eve insult against Michigan's Motor City.



Trump and Harris are locked in a razor-thin race in the state, with Harris just slightly ahead in the polls. The Great Lakes is part of the “blue wall,” which will be key to winning the presidency. The former president won the state by a tiny margin in 2016, but lost in 2020.

On Thursday, Trump sought to change that narrative by positioning himself as Detroit’s savior—if it would only vote for him. In particularly brutal language, he emphasized that he would be the one to ensure the U.S. makes better trade deals to rein in big, powerful companies “outside of our world.”

“We allowed them to come in and raid and rape our country,” Trump said, mockingly adding, “Oh, he used the word rape.’ That’s right, I used the word rape.”

For emphasis he repeated, “They RAPED our country.”

The Daily Beast.

Column: The latest info on California's $20 minimum wage for fast food workers — higher pay, no job losses and minimal price hikes

McDonald's prices haven't significantly risen since California raised its fast-food minimum wage to $20 an hour on April 1. And by some measures, the company's employment has increased. 

Michael Hiltzik
Thu, October 10, 2024 

Which of California's economic initiatives drives conservatives batty the most? No question: It's the state's $20 minimum wage for fast food workers, which went into effect April 1.

For months before the wage increase, conservative pundits and economists filled the airwaves and newspaper columns with predictions that it would produce an employment bloodbath at fast food restaurants.


Some went further, purporting to find actual evidence of huge job losses. The Wall Street Journal claimed to have discovered losses of 10,000 jobs between September 2023 and January 2024, even before the new wage went into effect. The estimate was duly parroted by the conservative Hoover Institution.


What’s good for workers is good for business, and as California’s fast food industry continues booming every single month our workers are finally getting the pay they deserve.

Gov. Gavin Newsom on the state's $20 minimum wage for fast food workers

Two new analyses of the actual wage and price impacts of the $20-per-hour minimum have appeared this month. They employ slightly different statistics, but their conclusions are the same: There have been no job losses in fast food resulting from the increase. By some measures, employment has increased.

The first analysis to appear came from the Institute for Research on Labor and Employment at UC Berkeley. It found no measurable job losses, significant wage gains (as one might expect from raising the minimum wage to $20 from an average of less than $17), and modest price increases at the cash register averaging about 3.7% — far lower than the fast food franchise lobby claimed were necessary.

The second comes from a joint project of the Harvard Kennedy School and UC San Francisco. Not only did that survey find no job losses, but it also debunked claims or conjectures from minimum-wage critics that the increase would show up as reductions in hours or fringe benefits.

Nothing of the kind has surfaced in the months just before or just after the new law, according to the Harvard-UCSF survey's authors, Daniel Schneider of Harvard and Kristen Harknett of UCSF.

"In response to wage increases," they wrote, "employers could have looked to cut costs by reducing fringe benefits such as health or dental insurance, paid sick time, or retirement benefits. We find no evidence of reductions."

These results are important for several reasons. One is that the fast-food minimum wage increase is one of the sharpest ever, and the resulting wage the highest in the country (with a few minor exceptions).


Read more: Column: Trump's proposal to make overtime pay tax-exempt obscures how awful he was for all workers


It's also one of the most tightly targeted, applying to California stores of fast food chains with more than 60 nationwide locations. The sector employs about 750,000 workers in the state, 90% of whom were paid less than $20 an hour — on average, slightly less than $17 — before the new wage went into effect.

"This is a big deal because of how many workers are getting raises," UC's veteran labor expert Michael Reich, the lead author of the Berkeley study, told me. The estimated average 18% raise for affected workers means that some will be able to afford a better apartment or a used car. Employers get benefits too: "The minimum wage kills a lot of vacancies and improves the supply of labor coming to those restaurants." That means less worker turnover, which is a bothersome expense.

The fast food raise has been presented as a signature achievement by California's Democratic governor, Gavin Newsom, who depicts it as emblematic of the state's progressive labor policies. “What’s good for workers is good for business, and as California’s fast food industry continues booming every single month our workers are finally getting the pay they deserve," Newsom said in August.

Fast food employment in California rose after April's minimum wage increase (solid red line), often faster than in the rest of the country. (UC Berkeley)

California has been a leader in raising minimum wages. The overall state minimum wage this year is $16 an hour and is scheduled to rise to $16.50 on Jan. 1; that's the highest state-level minimum and the highest except for the District of Columbia, where it's $17.50. (Certain localities in some states have higher minimums.) The California minimum wage for certain healthcare workers will rise to between $18 and $23 on Wednesday.

The issue is also timely, for California voters will be asked on election day to vote on a minimum wage increase for employees at all but the smallest businesses to $17 immediately and $18 on Jan. 1.

All that has made the fast-food minimum a favorite target for employers, their lobbyists and some right-of-center economic commentators.

Read more: The fast-food industry claims the California minimum wage law is costing jobs. Its numbers are fake

The minimum wage issue occupies a peculiar place in economic analysis. Many economists and commentators judge it by intuition — if you raise the price of something, such as the price of fast food labor, conventional economics say you'll get less of it. Hence, higher minimum wage, fewer jobs.

But it's also among the most heavily studied of all economic phenomena, with the overwhelming majority of studies finding little or no employment effect from a higher minimum. But none examined the effects of a minimum higher than $15.

That left the door open for critics of the California minimum to claim that this higher minimum was destined to wreak havoc on fast food employment. Some jumped the gun by finding job losses even before the law went into effect — ostensibly because employers were cutting jobs in anticipation of higher costs.


As I reported in June, the California Business and Industrial Alliance placed a full-page ad in USA Today, citing the Wall Street Journal's figure of 10,000 fast-food jobs lost during the fall and early winter and describing 12 restaurants or chains as "victims of Newsom's minimum wage."

This was "baloney, sliced thick," I wrote. Some of the chains listed were victims of other economic factors, such as competition, or financial manhandling by their private equity owners.

The figure of 10,000 job losses proved to be a statistical error: The Wall Street Journal used non-seasonally adjusted job figures, so it missed the fact that fast-food employment always falls in the September-January period, so the looming minimum wage played no role.

That was something of a curveball for UCLA economics professor Lee Ohanian, who had cited the Journal's figure in two columns published by the Hoover Institution, where he is a senior fellow, writing that the pace and timing of the employment decline made it “tempting to conclude that many of those lost fast-food jobs resulted from the higher labor costs employers would need to pay” when the new law kicked in.


Ohanian told me in June that he hadn't realized that the figures weren't seasonally adjusted, and that he would query the Journal about the issue in anticipation of writing about it again. He told me more recently that he did write to the Journal but didn't receive a reply, and that he hasn't revisited the issue thus far.

So what do we know now about the $20 fast food minimum?

Government labor statistics haven't shown an employment decrease in the fast-food category leading up to the April 1 date or in most of the months since then. The Berkeley researchers, led by Reich, found that fast-food employment rose almost steady this year from January through August, when it exceeded 750,000 for the first time.

According to the Bureau of Labor Statistics, employment in the sector during that period has run ahead of last year's monthly figures in every month except June. From April 2023 through August this year, the BLS says, California fast food employment rose by about 3,200 jobs on a seasonally adjusted basis.


Read more: Column: The eight-hour workday was the paramount goal of unions in the 1800s. Is the four-day workweek next?

Reich's team questioned reports of sizable price increases by restaurants aiming to pass their labor cost increases onto customers. The Wall Street Journal, for example, quoted one restaurant owner saying he had raised menu prices by 10%, and a McDonald's franchisee fretting about losing his customer base if he had to raise the price of a Happy Meal to $20. This was nothing but a flight of fancy: The price of a Happy Meal in California ranges from $4 to $8 today, depending on its content and size.

Based on their examination of menus from nearly 1,600 California restaurants, the Berkeley researchers calculated the average price increase to be about 3.7% — "or about 15 cents on a $4 hamburger." That was less than the 4.8% average increase imposed on fast-food customers from April 2023 to April 2024. Their math suggests that fast food restaurants passed about 62% of their labor cost increase in April to customers; the rest was taken out of profits.

None of this is likely to be the last word on the minimum wage issue. Future increases for fast food workers will be in the hands of an advisory wage council and subject to legislative oversight. It's still early in the post-$20 era; wage and price effects may take many more months, even a year, to emerge, though over time the hourly minimums for other employment sectors may move higher, making the fast food wage less of an outlier.

Employment figures, moreover, can be hard to validate. Several different statistical models are in use by states and the federal government. UCLA's Ohanian reminded me that the quarterly census of employment and wages of the Bureau of Labor Statistics, which covers about 95% of businesses, is current only through the end of March. The next release, covering the second quarter of 2024, won't be published until December; it's calibrated with the bureau's other estimates only once a year.

Don't expect anything published then to quash the debate over California's fast food labor policy. The evil of the minimum wage is a favorite chew toy in conservative politics.

But the bottom line is that workers in the California fast-food industry are better off today than they were six months ago. Who has a problem with that?

Michael Hiltzik
Commentary on economics and more from a Pulitzer Prize winner.
This story originally appeared in Los Angeles Times.